[top]
000
FXUS64 KMEG 242341 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
541 PM CST TUE NOV 24 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CST TUE NOV 24 2009/
DISCUSSION...
THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LATEST MODELS WERE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT. USED A BLEND OF
THEM.
AT 330 PM ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AND FORECAST AREA...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE OVER WEST TN AND FAR NORTH MS. A COLD FRONT
WAS JUST WEST OF THE MS RIVER...NEAR A CARUTHERSVILLE MO TO
MARIANNA AR LINE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 50S
OVER NE AR TO THE MID 60S OVER NE MS.
THROUGH 8 PM CST...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL AFFECT AREAS
EAST OF THE MS RIVER WITH THE BEST COVERAGE NORTH OF I-40. APPEARS
MOST...IF NOT ALL...SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF THE TN RIVER AND
MS/AL STATE LINE BY 8 PM. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS
THAN 0.10 INCH. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST AND PROBABLY BE
SOMEWHERE NEAR A TUPELO MS TO PARSONS TN LINE BY 8 PM. SKIES
QUICKLY WILL CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT.
REST OF TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL. MODEL GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S APPEARED
REASONABLE...THOUGH THEY MAY BE TOO WARM IF WINDS CAN DECOUPLE.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A SUNNY DAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
ACCEPTED MOS LOWS IN THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE AS WINDS SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.
THANKSGIVING DAY...A BREEZY AND COOL DAY CAN BE EXPECTED WITH A MID/
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SKIRTING THE AREA. SKIES WILL CLOUD UP NORTH OF
JONESBORO AR TO MEMPHIS TO TUPELO MS LINE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPED NEAR PARIS TN. WENT A DEGREE OR TWO
BELOW THE 12Z MAVMOS AND METMOS THINKING COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
BE STRONGER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
MORNING WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WENT
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN 12Z MEXMOS...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT AS MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S SHOULD ALLOW
FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
50S...THEN LOWER 60S ON SATURDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...LATEST MODELS SUGGESTED
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA WITH RAIN DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN
WITH 12Z GFS AND CANADIAN GEM FASTEST...BRINGING THE BULK OF THE
RAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF SUGGESTED
HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURRING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FOR NOW...TOOK A
BLEND...KEEPING THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT.
APPEARS THE ENTIRE AREA WILL GET WET WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND
AN INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL AS THE AREA
WILL PROBABLY BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW.
MBS
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
COLD FRONT AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM
KHKA...TO KMEM...TO KUTA...AND KGLH. THE FRONT WILL CLEAR KMKL
AROUND 02Z AND KTUP AROUND 04Z. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MAINLY AT
MVFR LEVELS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME PERIODS OF CEILINGS
DROPPING DOWN TO IFR LEVELS. A LINE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
FOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH ALONG WITH BR COULD RESTRICT
VISIBILITIES TO BETWEEN 4 AND 6 MILES. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH CLOUDS WILL CLEAR RAPIDLY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AROUND 10
KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST
BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KNOTS
BY 03Z AND THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
BORGHOFF
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 43 61 40 53 / 0 0 10 10
MKL 40 59 36 51 / 10 0 10 10
JBR 42 59 37 50 / 0 10 10 10
TUP 43 61 38 55 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
[top]
000
FXUS64 KMRX 242313
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
612 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2009
.AVIATION...PARTIAL CLEARING OVER MIDDLE TN AHEAD OF THE WEAK COLD
FRONT AT EARLY EVENING...WHILE LOW CLOUDS ARE SPREADING BACK INTO NE
TN AND SW VA...WHERE CLEARING OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON. I EXPECT
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS TO LINGER OVERNIGHT...ON THE EDGE OF
VFR TO MVFR AT TIMES. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER...I CHOSE TO BE LESS
PESSIMISTIC WITH CEILING HEIGHT AND VSBY FOR TRI OVERNIGHT.
DON`T SEE MUCH THREAT OF ANY PRECIPITATION AT TAF SITES...AND I LOOK
FOR CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE LATE MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
TG
000
FXUS64 KMEG 242144
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
344 PM CST TUE NOV 24 2009
.DISCUSSION...
THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LATEST MODELS WERE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT. USED A BLEND OF
THEM.
AT 330 PM ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AND FORECAST AREA...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE OVER WEST TN AND FAR NORTH MS. A COLD FRONT
WAS JUST WEST OF THE MS RIVER...NEAR A CARUTHERSVILLE MO TO
MARIANNA AR LINE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 50S
OVER NE AR TO THE MID 60S OVER NE MS.
THROUGH 8 PM CST...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL AFFECT AREAS
EAST OF THE MS RIVER WITH THE BEST COVERAGE NORTH OF I-40. APPEARS
MOST...IF NOT ALL...SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF THE TN RIVER AND
MS/AL STATE LINE BY 8 PM. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS
THAN 0.10 INCH. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST AND PROBABLY BE
SOMEWHERE NEAR A TUPELO MS TO PARSONS TN LINE BY 8 PM. SKIES
QUICKLY WILL CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT.
REST OF TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL. MODEL GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S APPEARED
REASONABLE...THOUGH THEY MAY BE TOO WARM IF WINDS CAN DECOUPLE.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A SUNNY DAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
ACCEPTED MOS LOWS IN THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE AS WINDS SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.
THANKSGIVING DAY...A BREEZY AND COOL DAY CAN BE EXPECTED WITH A MID/
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SKIRTING THE AREA. SKIES WILL CLOUD UP NORTH OF
JONESBORO AR TO MEMPHIS TO TUPELO MS LINE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPED NEAR PARIS TN. WENT A DEGREE OR TWO
BELOW THE 12Z MAVMOS AND METMOS THINKING COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
BE STRONGER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
MORNING WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WENT
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN 12Z MEXMOS...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT AS MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S SHOULD ALLOW
FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
50S...THEN LOWER 60S ON SATURDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...LATEST MODELS SUGGESTED
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA WITH RAIN DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN
WITH 12Z GFS AND CANADIAN GEM FASTEST...BRINGING THE BULK OF THE
RAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF SUGGESTED
HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURRING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FOR NOW...TOOK A
BLEND...KEEPING THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT.
APPEARS THE ENTIRE AREA WILL GET WET WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND
AN INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL AS THE AREA
WILL PROBABLY BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW.
MBS
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND WILL MAKE ITS
WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MAINLY AT MVFR LEVELS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH SOME PERIODS OF CEILINGS DROPPING DOWN TO IFR LEVELS.
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALTHOUGH
THEY SHOULD NOT PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITIES. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
QUICKLY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND SPEEDS
WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET AND THEN INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ARS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 43 61 40 53 / 0 0 10 10
MKL 40 59 36 51 / 10 0 10 10
JBR 42 59 37 50 / 0 10 10 10
TUP 43 61 38 55 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
[top]
000
FXUS64 KOHX 242142
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
342 PM CST TUE NOV 24 2009
.SHORT TERM (THROUGH FRI)...
COLD FRONT GETTING CLOSE TO THE MS RVR ATTM. EXPECT FRONTAL SYSTEM
TO PUSH INTO MID TN THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW SHOWERS W OF I-65 BY
MID EVENING. DON`T SEE A SURGE IN MOISTURE FM THE SOUTH...AND WL
KEEP POPS 20-30 RANGE OVERNIGHT.
COOLER NOT COLDER WED. A GOOD BIT OF SUN SHOULD DRIVE TEMPS INTO
THE MID TO UPR 50S WED AFTERNOON...MAYBE NEAR 60 SOUTH. SECONDARY
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PLUNGE SOUTH INTO MID TN LATE WED NIGHT-THU
MORNING...BRINGING MUCH COLDER TEMPS.
H8 TEMPS AROUND -2 TO -4 C THU WITH LINGERING MOISTURE AND ISO
RW- IN THE NORTH. THANKSGIVING DAY HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN THE MID TO UPR 40S ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40.
MODELS COLD ENOF FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES NORTH AND EAST OF
NASHVILLE THU EVENING. OTHERWISE A COUPLE OF COLD DRY NIGHTS THU-
FRI.
.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
TEMP MODERATION THIS WEEKEND. NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN MON WITH NEXT
FROPA. COLDER H8 AIR COULD GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
MON NIGHT AT THIS POINT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 45 57 38 48 / 30 0 10 20
CLARKSVILLE 43 57 36 46 / 30 0 10 20
CROSSVILLE 44 55 36 45 / 20 0 10 20
COLUMBIA 45 59 37 50 / 30 0 10 20
LAWRENCEBURG 45 59 36 51 / 30 0 10 10
WAVERLY 44 57 36 47 / 30 0 10 20
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
04
000
FXUS64 KMRX 241950
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
250 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2009
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...STRONG INVERSION HAS
TRAPPED LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE SURFACE ACROSS SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EARLIER FOGGY AREAS TO THE NE HOWEVER
HAVE CLEARED WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
60S. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER IOWA WITH COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTH
THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY WAS INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
MIDDLE TN WITH CLOUDS SCATTERED OUT BUT MOISTURE HUNG IN FROM THE
PLATEAU EAST. FOR TONIGHT EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING BUT AS FRONT GETS
CLOSER LIKELY TO INCREASE AGAIN. FOG STILL A PROBLEM NE SECTIONS
ALTHOUGH WITH TODAYS DRYING NOT AS DENSE. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
SHOWERS PLATEAU BUT OTHERWISE DRY TONIGHT AS ENERGY WITH
APPROACHING SYSTEM SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND WEAKENING. ALSO KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE SW VA IN THE MORNING. TOMORROW EXPECTING INVERSION TO
BREAK AND SKIES TO BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A SURGE
OF COLDER AIR THAT WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW BY THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS AGREE
THAT MOISTURE WILL BE SHALLOW AND LIMITED THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...SO WILL MENTION ONLY CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD FOR
NOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND...
WITH A WARMING TREND DEVELOPING AS WELL. ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY...AND
THEN DEVELOP A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY
BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. GFS AND ECMWF MODELS REVEAL SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THINK THAT THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD FAVOR THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE ECMWF
MODEL. FOR NOW...WILL MENTION A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY TO MATCH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. AS FOR TEMPS...TRENDED
CLOSE TO THE GFS GUIDANCE NUMBERS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...
WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 46 63 39 55 35 / 10 10 10 10 20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 45 61 38 54 34 / 10 10 10 20 30
OAK RIDGE, TN 46 60 39 54 35 / 10 10 10 20 30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 39 60 35 51 31 / 10 10 10 20 40
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
TD/DMG
000
FXUS64 KMEG 241744
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1144 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2009
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1046 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2009/
UPDATE...
MADE SMALL CHANGES TO ALL ELEMENTS TODAY. TODAY/S FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE.
DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ANY RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT AND
SHORT IN DURATION.
AT 1045 AM ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AND FORECAST AREA...A BAND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTENDED FROM JUST EAST OF JONESBORO AR TO
MARVELL AR. A COLD FRONT WAS OVER CENTRAL AR MOVING EAST. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 50S. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WERE
OCCURRING EAST OF THE MS RIVER.
REST OF TODAY...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MOVE EAST AND AFFECT
THE AREA...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF I-40 WHERE LIFT AND BETTER
CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED. CURRENT SHOWER BAND OVER EAST AR WILL
MOVE EAST AND PERHAPS WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
WITH LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS EAST OF THE MS RIVER. BELIEVE ANOTHER
NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
REACH THE POCAHONTAS AND WALNUT RIDGE AR AREAS AROUND NOON...THE
MS RIVER AROUND 3 PM...AND THE TN RIVER/MS AND AL STATE LINE
AROUND 9 PM.
KEPT RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY 30 TO 50 PERCENT TODAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY BELOW 0.25 INCH. SHOWER DURATION
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE HOUR.
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES NEAR TO MO/AR
STATE LINE WHERE WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS PRESENT. DID NOT
MENTION IN ZONES WITH LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NEAR POCAHONTAS AR TO MID 60S
NEAR THE TN RIVER AND MS/AL STATE LINE WHERE SOME SUN CAN BE
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES MAY FALL A FEW DEGREES BEHIND COLD FRONT
PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT.
MBS
PREV DISCUSSION...
DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2009/
LOW PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT POSITIONED THIS
MORNING OVER EASTERN KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH LATER TODAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL WITH DECREASING CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH.
PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TODAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING AS A STRONGER NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER LOW DIVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF WESTERN CANADA INTO THE
MID WEST. LIMITED MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SECONDARY FRONT SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY RAIN CHANCES...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY INCREASE
WITH THE FRONT. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ADVECT INTO THE MID SOUTH
FOR THANKSGIVING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID SOUTH. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN
BE EXPECTED FOR THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
MANY LOCATIONS DROPPING TO NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ON SATURDAY WITH RETURN FLOW
BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD RETURN TO THE MID SOUTH FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK AS A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ATTEMPTS TO PHASE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE WESTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO DEPART AND WILL LIKELY KEEP RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. COOLER
WEATHER CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
JLH
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND WILL MAKE ITS
WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MAINLY AT MVFR LEVELS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH SOME PERIODS OF CEILINGS DROPPING DOWN TO IFR LEVELS.
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALTHOUGH
THEY SHOULD NOT PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITIES. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
QUICKLY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND SPEEDS
WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET AND THEN INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS BY LATE WEDENSDAY MORNING.
ARS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 61 44 59 41 / 50 10 0 10
MKL 63 42 57 37 / 50 10 0 10
JBR 59 40 57 38 / 50 0 0 10
TUP 64 44 62 41 / 30 20 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 241646
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1046 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2009
.UPDATE...
MADE SMALL CHANGES TO ALL ELEMENTS TODAY. TODAY/S FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ANY RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT AND
SHORT IN DURATION.
AT 1045 AM ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AND FORECAST AREA...A BAND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTENDED FROM JUST EAST OF JONESBORO AR TO
MARVELL AR. A COLD FRONT WAS OVER CENTRAL AR MOVING EAST. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 50S. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WERE
OCCURRING EAST OF THE MS RIVER.
REST OF TODAY...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MOVE EAST AND AFFECT
THE AREA...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF I-40 WHERE LIFT AND BETTER
CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED. CURRENT SHOWER BAND OVER EAST AR WILL
MOVE EAST AND PERHAPS WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
WITH LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS EAST OF THE MS RIVER. BELIEVE ANOTHER
NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
REACH THE POCAHONTAS AND WALNUT RIDGE AR AREAS AROUND NOON...THE
MS RIVER AROUND 3 PM...AND THE TN RIVER/MS AND AL STATE LINE
AROUND 9 PM.
KEPT RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY 30 TO 50 PERCENT TODAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY BELOW 0.25 INCH. SHOWER DURATION
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE HOUR.
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES NEAR TO MO/AR
STATE LINE WHERE WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS PRESENT. DID NOT
MENTION IN ZONES WITH LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NEAR POCAHONTAS AR TO MID 60S
NEAR THE TN RIVER AND MS/AL STATE LINE WHERE SOME SUN CAN BE
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES MAY FALL A FEW DEGREES BEHIND COLD FRONT
PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT.
MBS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2009/
LOW PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT POSITIONED THIS
MORNING OVER EASTERN KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH LATER TODAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL WITH DECREASING CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH.
PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TODAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING AS A STRONGER NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER LOW DIVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF WESTERN CANADA INTO THE
MID WEST. LIMITED MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SECONDARY FRONT SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY RAIN CHANCES...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY INCREASE
WITH THE FRONT. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ADVECT INTO THE MID SOUTH
FOR THANKSGIVING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID SOUTH. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN
BE EXPECTED FOR THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
MANY LOCATIONS DROPPING TO NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ON SATURDAY WITH RETURN FLOW
BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD RETURN TO THE MID SOUTH FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK AS A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ATTEMPTS TO PHASE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE WESTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO DEPART AND WILL LIKELY KEEP RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. COOLER
WEATHER CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
JLH
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE (24/12Z-25/12Z)
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR UNTIL ABOUT 15Z OR 16Z...THEN
MVFR CONDITIONS UNTIL ABOUT 17Z OR 18Z...THEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS FORECAST THROUGH KJBR AT 21Z...KMEM
23Z...KMKL 25/01Z...AND KTUP 25/02Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR
ALONG AND ABOUT 6 HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FOR NOW MENTIONED VCSH
IN ALL THE TAFS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME
GUSTY AT 18-22 KTS TODAY AT KMEM AND KJBR.
JCL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 61 44 59 41 / 50 10 0 10
MKL 63 42 57 37 / 50 30 0 10
JBR 59 40 57 38 / 50 10 0 10
TUP 64 44 62 41 / 30 20 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KOHX 241611
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1011 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2009
.UPDATE...
H8 MOISTURE DECREASE WITH PARTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON SKIES TODAY.
CLOUDS WILL FILL BACK TONIGHT WITH A FEW PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS THIS
EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2009/
UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION.
AVIATION...AM EXPECTING LOW CIGS TODAY AND TONIGHT AT BNA/CSV,
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR LATER THIS MORNING OR
EARLY AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT, FOG MAY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2009/
SHORT TERM...LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE REMAINED ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT, WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING IN THE LOWER 50S.
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE, EXPECT LOWS
CLOUDS TO BEGIN BREAKING FROM THE WEST DURING THE MORNING, WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS AREA-WIDE BY MID AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB STEADILY OUT OF THE 50S AND INTO THE
LOWER 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN IN THE NORTHWEST, AROUND DOVER
AND CLARKSVILLE BY LATE IN THE DAY AS COLD FRONT NEARS THE
TENNESSEE RIVER. FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MID STATE TONIGHT,
ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. RAINFALL WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT, AVERAGING ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN MOST AREAS.
PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY, WITH
WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING MILD TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS TOPPING OUT
BETWEEN 55 AND 60 DEGREES AT MOST LOCATIONS.
A COOLING TREND IS STILL FORECAST TO COMMENCE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXTEND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, AS A CLOSED
UPPER LOW DROPS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY BY THANKSGIVING DAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE INCREASING
CLOUDINESS AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES ON THANKSGIVING, ALONG WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
HIGHS WILL BE LUCKY TO REACH THE 50 DEGREE MARK OVER THE NORTH.
VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER WILL OCCUR AS THE LOW SINKS INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, BUT A BKN-OVC STRATOCU SHIELD SHOULD PRETTY
MUCH COVER THE MID STATE BY SUNSET ON THANKSGIVING.
LONG TERM... CLOUDS RETREAT TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH
A DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PUSHING IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
LATEST ECMWF AND GFS KEEP THINGS DRY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
WEEKEND, WITH JUST A HINT OF A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY GETTING INTO
THE NORTHWEST BY SUNSET SUNDAY. MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK PRETTY
CLOUDY AND WET, AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS THE
AREA. TIMING OF PRECIP WINDOW IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN RIGHT NOW, BUT
WILL PROBABLY FOCUS HIGHEST POPS DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY TIME FRAME PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF SURFACE FRONT. &&
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
04
000
FXUS64 KMRX 241520
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1020 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2009
.DISCUSSION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COVERING ALL BUT PARTS OF SW VA
AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL
TRAPPED WITH BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN STATES
AND LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD CHANGE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PREEURE AREA ACROSS MO AND COLD FRONT THROUGH AR
MOVES EAST INTO TH LOWER TN AND OH VALLEYS. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WIND SHOULD INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AND SCOUR OUT THE FOG AND
LOWER CLOUDS. WITH WARM START THIS MORNING IN THE CLOUDY AREAS
EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER 60S. UPDATE OUT SOON TO CHANGE SKY
COVER WORDING FOR TODAY.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
TD
000
FXUS64 KOHX 241226
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
626 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2009
.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...AM EXPECTING LOW CIGS TODAY AND TONIGHT AT BNA/CSV,
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR LATER THIS MORNING OR
EARLY AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT, FOG MAY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2009/
SHORT TERM...LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE REMAINED ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT, WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING IN THE LOWER 50S.
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE, EXPECT LOWS
CLOUDS TO BEGIN BREAKING FROM THE WEST DURING THE MORNING, WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS AREA-WIDE BY MID AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB STEADILY OUT OF THE 50S AND INTO THE
LOWER 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN IN THE NORTHWEST, AROUND DOVER
AND CLARKSVILLE BY LATE IN THE DAY AS COLD FRONT NEARS THE
TENNESSEE RIVER. FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MID STATE TONIGHT,
ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. RAINFALL WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT, AVERAGING ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN MOST AREAS.
PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY, WITH
WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING MILD TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS TOPPING OUT
BETWEEN 55 AND 60 DEGREES AT MOST LOCATIONS.
A COOLING TREND IS STILL FORECAST TO COMMENCE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXTEND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, AS A CLOSED
UPPER LOW DROPS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY BY THANKSGIVING DAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE INCREASING
CLOUDINESS AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES ON THANKSGIVING, ALONG WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
HIGHS WILL BE LUCKY TO REACH THE 50 DEGREE MARK OVER THE NORTH.
VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER WILL OCCUR AS THE LOW SINKS INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, BUT A BKN-OVC STRATOCU SHIELD SHOULD PRETTY
MUCH COVER THE MID STATE BY SUNSET ON THANKSGIVING.
LONG TERM... CLOUDS RETREAT TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH
A DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PUSHING IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
LATEST ECMWF AND GFS KEEP THINGS DRY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
WEEKEND, WITH JUST A HINT OF A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY GETTING INTO
THE NORTHWEST BY SUNSET SUNDAY. MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK PRETTY
CLOUDY AND WET, AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS THE
AREA. TIMING OF PRECIP WINDOW IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN RIGHT NOW, BUT
WILL PROBABLY FOCUS HIGHEST POPS DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY TIME FRAME PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF SURFACE FRONT. &&
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99
000
FXUS64 KMEG 241135 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
535 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2009
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2009/
LOW PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT POSITIONED THIS
MORNING OVER EASTERN KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH LATER TODAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL WITH DECREASING CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH.
PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TODAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING AS A STRONGER NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER LOW DIVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF WESTERN CANADA INTO THE
MID WEST. LIMITED MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SECONDARY FRONT SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY RAIN CHANCES...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY INCREASE
WITH THE FRONT. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ADVECT INTO THE MID SOUTH
FOR THANKSGIVING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID SOUTH. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN
BE EXPECTED FOR THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
MANY LOCATIONS DROPPING TO NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ON SATURDAY WITH RETURN FLOW
BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD RETURN TO THE MID SOUTH FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK AS A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ATTEMPTS TO PHASE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE WESTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO DEPART AND WILL LIKELY KEEP RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. COOLER
WEATHER CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
JLH
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE (24/12Z-25/12Z)
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR UNTIL ABOUT 15Z OR 16Z...THEN
MVFR CONDITIONS UNTIL ABOUT 17Z OR 18Z...THEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS FORECAST THROUGH KJBR AT 21Z...KMEM
23Z...KMKL 25/01Z...AND KTUP 25/02Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR
ALONG AND ABOUT 6 HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FOR NOW MENTIONED VCSH
IN ALL THE TAFS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME
GUSTY AT 18-22 KTS TODAY AT KMEM AND KJBR.
JCL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 63 44 59 41 / 40 10 0 10
MKL 63 42 57 37 / 50 30 0 10
JBR 60 40 57 38 / 60 10 0 10
TUP 64 44 62 41 / 20 20 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMRX 241122
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
622 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2009
.AVIATION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE AREA TO START THE
PERIOD. FOG AT TRI WILL DISSIPATE FIRST PART OF TAF. EXPECT CLOUDS
TO GRADUALLY LIFT AND BREAK UP DURING THE DAY ALL SITES...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THE RULE REMAINDER OF PERIOD. EXCEPTION IS POSSIBILITY
OF SOME FOG AGAIN LATE IN TAF ESPECIALLY AT TRI. WILL CARRY MVFR
VIS AT TRI LATE...BUT LOWER VALUES CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
LDW
000
FXUS64 KMEG 241022
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
422 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2009
.DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT POSITIONED THIS MORNING
OVER EASTERN KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH LATER TODAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL WITH DECREASING CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH. PATCHY
FOG WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING AS A STRONGER NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER LOW DIVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF WESTERN CANADA INTO THE
MID WEST. LIMITED MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SECONDARY FRONT SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY RAIN CHANCES...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY INCREASE
WITH THE FRONT. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ADVECT INTO THE MID SOUTH
FOR THANKSGIVING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID SOUTH. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN
BE EXPECTED FOR THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
MANY LOCATIONS DROPPING TO NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ON SATURDAY WITH RETURN FLOW
BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD RETURN TO THE MID SOUTH FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK AS A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ATTEMPTS TO PHASE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE WESTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO DEPART AND WILL LIKELY KEEP RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. COOLER
WEATHER CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
JLH
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
CIGS AND VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN NEARLY STEADY THIS EVENING THUS
FAR. SOME CLEARING IS EVIDENT OVER EASTERN ARKANSAS AS OF TAF
ISSUANCE TIME...BUT THIS MAY FILL BACK IN OVER TIME. IF IT DOES
NOT FILL IN...EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY
AT KJBR AND KMEM WHERE THE CLEARING IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR.
OTHERWISE...CIGS SHOULD LOWER AS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TO AT LEAST
IFR AS WINDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LOWER.
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AFTER 24/15Z...ALLOWING CIGS AND VISBYS TO
REBOUND BACK TO MVFR.
FROPA EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MIDSOUTH FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN
24/18Z AND 25/02Z. SOME VCSH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER AS DRIER AIR PUSHES
IN FROM THE WEST.
BORGHOFF
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 63 44 59 41 / 40 10 0 10
MKL 63 42 57 37 / 50 30 0 10
JBR 60 40 57 38 / 60 10 0 10
TUP 64 44 62 41 / 20 20 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KOHX 240857
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
257 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2009
.SHORT TERM...LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE REMAINED ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT, WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING IN THE LOWER 50S.
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE, EXPECT LOWS
CLOUDS TO BEGIN BREAKING FROM THE WEST DURING THE MORNING, WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS AREA-WIDE BY MID AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB STEADILY OUT OF THE 50S AND INTO THE
LOWER 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN IN THE NORTHWEST, AROUND DOVER
AND CLARKSVILLE BY LATE IN THE DAY AS COLD FRONT NEARS THE
TENNESSEE RIVER. FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MID STATE TONIGHT,
ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. RAINFALL WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT, AVERAGING ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN MOST AREAS.
PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY, WITH
WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING MILD TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS TOPPING OUT
BETWEEN 55 AND 60 DEGREES AT MOST LOCATIONS.
A COOLING TREND IS STILL FORECAST TO COMMENCE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXTEND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, AS A CLOSED
UPPER LOW DROPS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY BY THANKSGIVING DAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE INCREASING
CLOUDINESS AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES ON THANKSGIVING, ALONG WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
HIGHS WILL BE LUCKY TO REACH THE 50 DEGREE MARK OVER THE NORTH.
VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER WILL OCCUR AS THE LOW SINKS INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, BUT A BKN-OVC STRATOCU SHIELD SHOULD PRETTY
MUCH COVER THE MID STATE BY SUNSET ON THANKSGIVING.
.LONG TERM... CLOUDS RETREAT TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH
A DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PUSHING IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
LATEST ECMWF AND GFS KEEP THINGS DRY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
WEEKEND, WITH JUST A HINT OF A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY GETTING INTO
THE NORTHWEST BY SUNSET SUNDAY. MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK PRETTY
CLOUDY AND WET, AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS THE
AREA. TIMING OF PRECIP WINDOW IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN RIGHT NOW, BUT
WILL PROBABLY FOCUS HIGHEST POPS DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY TIME FRAME PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF SURFACE FRONT. &&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 61 45 59 39 / 10 30 10 20
CLARKSVILLE 59 43 55 37 / 20 30 10 20
CROSSVILLE 55 44 56 36 / 10 30 10 10
COLUMBIA 62 45 59 39 / 10 30 10 10
LAWRENCEBURG 62 44 59 38 / 10 30 10 10
WAVERLY 60 44 56 38 / 20 30 10 20
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
19
000
FXUS64 KMRX 240734
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
232 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2009
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
LINGER OVER THE AREA...BUT EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING OUR AREA
LATE TONIGHT...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND FORCING WEAK. WILL
JUST CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP LATE TONIGHT FOR WESTERN ZONES. MAV
TEMPS GENERALLY LOOK REASONABLE...SO WILL STAY CLOSE.
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES
THROUGH AND EXITS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FRONT SHOWING LITTLE MOISTURE AND LIMITED LIFT. HAVE...THEREFORE
KEPT POPS LOW WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO SPRINKLE WORDING EARLY IN
THE DAY. ANOTHER FRONT MOVES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM
ON THANKSGIVING. THIS FRONT IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH A BIT DEEPER
MOISTURE. HAVE CONTINUED WITH TREND OF LITTLE TO NO POPS
SOUTHWEST...WITH INCREASING POPS...REACHING INTO CHANCE
CATEGORY...IN THE NORTH AND EAST. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND ENERGY
FROM THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH LIGHT PRECIP INTO
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ADD
ORTHOGRAPHIC LIFT TO THE PRECIP CHANCES. ADDITIONALLY...COLDER AIR
MOVING IN WITH THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT SNOW
TO RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER...THE GROUND IS QUITE
WARM AND QUESTION CHANCE OF ANY ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FOR THE WEEKEND FOR A BRIEF RETURN TO QUIET WEATHER...WITH THE
NEXT SYSTEM PROGGED INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 62 46 62 39 56 / 0 10 10 10 10
KNOXVILLE AIRPORT, TN 61 44 61 38 55 / 0 10 10 10 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 63 45 61 39 55 / 0 10 10 10 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 62 41 59 37 53 / 0 10 20 10 20
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
LDW/MJB
000
FXUS64 KMEG 240536 AAC
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1136 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 907 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009/
UPDATE...
OVERCAST SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AT DISCUSSION TIME.
A CLEARING LINE WAS APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN AR...BUT THE
PROGRESS HAD SLOWED SINCE SUNSET. EXPECT SOME CLEARING TO OCCUR
INTO CLARKSALE AND SURROUNDING AREAS...BUT RADIATION FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WILL LIKELY FILL THESE AREAS IN. FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...
PARTIAL CLEARING IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY.
DIFFICULT CALL ON SKY CONDITION AND FOG...MADE MORE DIFFICULT BY
POOR 925MB INITIATION ON THE 00Z NAM MODEL. FORECAST WAS UPDATED
EARLIER TO INCREASE NIGHTTIME CLOUDS AND DELAY MENTION OF PATCHY
DENSE FOG. WILL LIKELY PULL BACK THE OVERNIGHT FOG WORDING SOME TO
MATCH THE INCREASE IN EXPECTED CLOUD CLOVER. THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST APPEARS ON TARGET.
PWB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009/
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009/
DISCUSSION...
DENSE FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN RAIN
CHANCES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.
LATEST MODELS WERE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT. USED A BLEND
OF THEM.
DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
AT 4 PM ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AND FORECAST AREA...CLOUDY AND COOL
CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. A
WEAK SURFACE HIGH WAS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A SURFACE LOW
WAS OVER OKLAHOMA.
TONIGHT...DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT IS THE BIGGEST CONCERN. CLEARING
LINE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NE TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING OVER THE AREA...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANY CLEARING WILL
LIKELY ALLOW SOME FOG TO DEVELOP WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 50S...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE DENSE. NOT CERTAIN ON HOW DENSE
AND WIDESPREAD FOG WILL BE...BUT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD
PART OF THE AREA TO BE IN DENSE FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT AND A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY. THUS...ADDED MENTION IN HWO.
WENT TOWARDS THE 12Z MAVMOS NUMBERS FOR LOWS TONIGHT...THOUGH
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP MORE THAN FORECAST IF BETTER CLEARING
OCCURS. CLOUDS WILL BE LAST TO CLEAR NEAR THE TN RIVER. ADDED A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER 3 AM FOR RANDOLPH AND LAWRENCE
COUNTIES AR AS COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THESE AREAS FROM THE WEST.
TUESDAY...PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY LINGER THROUGH 9 AM EAST OF I-55.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST AND LIKELY BRING A NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS...REACHING THE MS RIVER AROUND NOON...THEN MOVE INTO
ALABAMA AND EAST OF TN RIVER BY MIDNIGHT. KEPT RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY 30 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE WITH BEST CHANCES NEAR THE MO/AR
AND KY/TN BORDERS WHERE LIFT WILL BE BEST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 0.25 INCH AND RAINFALL DURATION WILL
PROBABLY BE SHORT...LESS THAN 3 HOURS. 12Z MAVMOS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S APPEARED REASONABLE.
TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS MAY LINGER NEAR THE TN RIVER AND NEAR THE
MS/AL STATE LINE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. CLEARING WILL THEN
OCCUR WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DRY AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CAN BE EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT SHOULD BRING NOTHING MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS AS DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING. 12Z MOS TEMPERATURES WERE ACCEPTED.
THANKSGIVING DAY...A BREEZY AND COOL DAY CAN BE EXPECTED. THINK
MORE CLOUDS WILL BE NORTH OF A HARRISBURG AR TO TUPELO MS LINE
CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGH. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR PARIS TN. WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW 12Z
MEXMOS TEMPERATURES.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LOWS FRIDAY MORNING MAY BE THE
COLDEST OF THE SEASON WITH MUCH OF THE AREA NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BY SATURDAY AS SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LATEST MODELS SUGGEST
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA. PREFERRED THE FASTER 12Z
ECMWF AND GEM SOLUTIONS...THUS INCREASED RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME SLIGHTLY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR. WENT
TOWARDS THE 12Z MEXMOS NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES.
MBS
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
CIGS AND VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN NEARLY STEADY THIS EVENING THUS
FAR. SOME CLEARING IS EVIDENT OVER EASTERN ARKANSAS AS OF TAF
ISSUANCE TIME...BUT THIS MAY FILL BACK IN OVER TIME. IF IT DOES
NOT FILL IN...EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY
AT KJBR AND KMEM WHERE THE CLEARING IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR.
OTHERWISE...CIGS SHOULD LOWER AS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TO AT LEAST
IFR AS WINDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LOWER.
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AFTER 24/15Z...ALLOWING CIGS AND VISBYS TO
REBOUND BACK TO MVFR.
FROPA EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MIDSOUTH FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN
24/18Z AND 25/02Z. SOME VCSH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER AS DRIER AIR PUSHES
IN FROM THE WEST.
BORGHOFF
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 51 63 45 59 / 0 50 10 10
MKL 48 63 42 58 / 0 50 30 10
JBR 50 61 42 57 / 10 60 10 10
TUP 46 65 45 61 / 0 20 30 0
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMRX 240526
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1226 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2009
.AVIATION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE AREA. EXPECT MVFR
CIGS AND/OR VIS AT TIMES TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY ALL SITES...AND
WILL TAKE TRI AS LOW AS IFR IN FOG AS THEY HAVE CURRENTLY CLEARED
OUT. LOWER CONDITIONS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO FINALLY
LIFT AND BREAK UP FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
LDW
000
FXUS64 KMEG 240307 AAB
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
907 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009
.UPDATE...
OVERCAST SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AT DISCUSSION TIME.
A CLEARING LINE WAS APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN AR...BUT THE
PROGRESS HAD SLOWED SINCE SUNSET. EXPECT SOME CLEARING TO OCCUR
INTO CLARKSALE AND SURROUNDING AREAS...BUT RADIATION FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WILL LIKELY FILL THESE AREAS IN. FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...
PARTIAL CLEARING IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY.
DIFFICULT CALL ON SKY CONDITION AND FOG...MADE MORE DIFFICULT BY
POOR 925MB INITIATION ON THE 00Z NAM MODEL. FORECAST WAS UPDATED
EARLIER TO INCREASE NIGHTTIME CLOUDS AND DELAY MENTION OF PATCHY
DENSE FOG. WILL LIKELY PULL BACK THE OVERNIGHT FOG WORDING SOME TO
MATCH THE INCREASE IN EXPECTED CLOUD CLOVER. THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST APPEARS ON TARGET.
PWB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009/
DISCUSSION...
DENSE FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN RAIN
CHANCES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.
LATEST MODELS WERE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT. USED A BLEND
OF THEM.
DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
AT 4 PM ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AND FORECAST AREA...CLOUDY AND COOL
CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. A
WEAK SURFACE HIGH WAS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A SURFACE LOW
WAS OVER OKLAHOMA.
TONIGHT...DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT IS THE BIGGEST CONCERN. CLEARING
LINE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NE TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING OVER THE AREA...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANY CLEARING WILL
LIKELY ALLOW SOME FOG TO DEVELOP WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 50S...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE DENSE. NOT CERTAIN ON HOW DENSE
AND WIDESPREAD FOG WILL BE...BUT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD
PART OF THE AREA TO BE IN DENSE FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT AND A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY. THUS...ADDED MENTION IN HWO.
WENT TOWARDS THE 12Z MAVMOS NUMBERS FOR LOWS TONIGHT...THOUGH
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP MORE THAN FORECAST IF BETTER CLEARING
OCCURS. CLOUDS WILL BE LAST TO CLEAR NEAR THE TN RIVER. ADDED A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER 3 AM FOR RANDOLPH AND LAWRENCE
COUNTIES AR AS COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THESE AREAS FROM THE WEST.
TUESDAY...PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY LINGER THROUGH 9 AM EAST OF I-55.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST AND LIKELY BRING A NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS...REACHING THE MS RIVER AROUND NOON...THEN MOVE INTO
ALABAMA AND EAST OF TN RIVER BY MIDNIGHT. KEPT RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY 30 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE WITH BEST CHANCES NEAR THE MO/AR
AND KY/TN BORDERS WHERE LIFT WILL BE BEST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 0.25 INCH AND RAINFALL DURATION WILL
PROBABLY BE SHORT...LESS THAN 3 HOURS. 12Z MAVMOS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S APPEARED REASONABLE.
TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS MAY LINGER NEAR THE TN RIVER AND NEAR THE
MS/AL STATE LINE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. CLEARING WILL THEN
OCCUR WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DRY AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CAN BE EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT SHOULD BRING NOTHING MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS AS DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING. 12Z MOS TEMPERATURES WERE ACCEPTED.
THANKSGIVING DAY...A BREEZY AND COOL DAY CAN BE EXPECTED. THINK
MORE CLOUDS WILL BE NORTH OF A HARRISBURG AR TO TUPELO MS LINE
CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGH. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR PARIS TN. WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW 12Z
MEXMOS TEMPERATURES.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LOWS FRIDAY MORNING MAY BE THE
COLDEST OF THE SEASON WITH MUCH OF THE AREA NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BY SATURDAY AS SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LATEST MODELS SUGGEST
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA. PREFERRED THE FASTER 12Z
ECMWF AND GEM SOLUTIONS...THUS INCREASED RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME SLIGHTLY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR. WENT
TOWARDS THE 12Z MEXMOS NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES.
MBS
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
AS OF TAF ISSUANCE...MVFR CIGS IN PLACE AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT
VFR TEMPORARILY AT KJBR...AND SOME RESTRICTION TO VISIBILITY DUE
TO PATCHY DRIZZLE AT KMKL. EXPECT A SMALL WINDOW OF MVFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING UNTIL 02 OR 03Z. CIGS
WILL THEN BECOME IFR/LIFR THROUGH 24/15Z. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE
FAIRLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT...BUT INCREASING TO 8-10KTS AFTER 15Z. THIS
WILL ALLOW CIGS TO QUICKLY INCREASE BACK TO MVFR. KJBR AND KMEM
STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE VICINITY SHOWERS WITH FROPA BEFORE
END OF TAF PERIOD...SO WILL MENTION IN TAFS.
BORGHOFF
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 50 63 45 59 / 0 50 10 10
MKL 48 63 42 58 / 0 50 30 10
JBR 49 61 42 57 / 10 60 10 10
TUP 46 65 45 61 / 0 20 30 0
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMRX 240226
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
926 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.DISCUSSION...NO UPDATES PLANNED THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT. WILL LEAVE FOG IN FOR TONIGHT BUT DENSE FOG NOT EXPECTED
WITH THE CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES AND THE REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.
NO CHANGES NEEDED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 46 63 46 63 40 / 10 10 20 20 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 44 62 46 62 39 / 10 10 20 20 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 44 62 46 62 40 / 10 10 20 20 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 40 63 42 60 38 / 10 10 20 20 10
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
GH
000
FXUS64 KMRX 232355
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
655 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.AVIATION...WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING OVER THE
AREA...IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT TYS AND TRI TONIGHT
WHILE CHA SHOULD DROP BACK TO MVFR. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN IN
THE 18-20Z TIME FRAME. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
GH
000
FXUS64 KOHX 232324
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
524 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009
.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST
&&
.AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AT BNA AND CSV AS CEILINGS WITH REMAIN
<1K WITH VSBYS GETTING DOWN AT TIMES TO <2 MILES AT BNA AND <1
MILE AT CROSSVILLE DUE TO FOG. MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z
AT BOTH SITES ON TUESDAY.
BOYD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009/
DISCUSSION...
DEVELOPING LOW IN THE PLAINS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE MIDSTATE TONIGHT
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE TUE PM IN THE NW AND GENERALLY OVER THE
AREA TUE NGT. RAIN PULLS EWD EARLY WED WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE AREA WED NGT AND THU. ONLY A SLGT CHANCE OF RAIN
ON THU AND THEN POSSIBLY RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW LATE THU NGT. 850MB
TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -6C ON THU EVE.
PRECIP SHOULD END EARLY FRI WITH MOST OF FRI AND SAT BEING DRY AS A
LARGE SFC RIDGE MOVES EWD ACROSS THE SERN STATES. WEATHER FOR
"BLACK FRIDAY" WILL LIKELY BE COLD WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
IN THE AFTERNOON. THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL
LIKELY NOT CAUSE ANY PROBLEMS...EXPECT THAT WHATEVER SNOW DOES
FALL WILL MELT QUICKLY.
SLY FLOW RETURNS ON SAT AS ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE WRN
PLAINS. THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA ON SUN WITH A CHANCE OF
PRECIP OVER THE AREA ON SUN AND MON. THE GFS DEVELOPS A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE CENTER ON THE SRN END OF THE FRONT AND IT PUSHES NEWD
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY SUN NGT AND EARLY MON AND THEN THROUGH
THE MIDSTATE ON MON. HOWEVER...THE EURO IS MUCH SLOWER TO MOVE THE
LOW NEWD...DELAYING THAT UNTIL MON NGT.
CPC OUTLOOKS CONTINUE ON THE COLD SIDE BUT THE PRECIP OUTLOOK HAS MOVED
TO THE ABOVE NORMAL AREA.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01
000
FXUS64 KMEG 232320 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
520 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009/
DISCUSSION...
DENSE FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN RAIN
CHANCES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.
LATEST MODELS WERE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT. USED A BLEND
OF THEM.
DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
AT 4 PM ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AND FORECAST AREA...CLOUDY AND COOL
CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. A
WEAK SURFACE HIGH WAS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A SURFACE LOW
WAS OVER OKLAHOMA.
TONIGHT...DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT IS THE BIGGEST CONCERN. CLEARING
LINE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NE TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING OVER THE AREA...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANY CLEARING WILL
LIKELY ALLOW SOME FOG TO DEVELOP WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 50S...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE DENSE. NOT CERTAIN ON HOW DENSE
AND WIDESPREAD FOG WILL BE...BUT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD
PART OF THE AREA TO BE IN DENSE FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT AND A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY. THUS...ADDED MENTION IN HWO.
WENT TOWARDS THE 12Z MAVMOS NUMBERS FOR LOWS TONIGHT...THOUGH
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP MORE THAN FORECAST IF BETTER CLEARING
OCCURS. CLOUDS WILL BE LAST TO CLEAR NEAR THE TN RIVER. ADDED A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER 3 AM FOR RANDOLPH AND LAWRENCE
COUNTIES AR AS COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THESE AREAS FROM THE WEST.
TUESDAY...PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY LINGER THROUGH 9 AM EAST OF I-55.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST AND LIKELY BRING A NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS...REACHING THE MS RIVER AROUND NOON...THEN MOVE INTO
ALABAMA AND EAST OF TN RIVER BY MIDNIGHT. KEPT RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY 30 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE WITH BEST CHANCES NEAR THE MO/AR
AND KY/TN BORDERS WHERE LIFT WILL BE BEST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 0.25 INCH AND RAINFALL DURATION WILL
PROBABLY BE SHORT...LESS THAN 3 HOURS. 12Z MAVMOS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S APPEARED REASONABLE.
TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS MAY LINGER NEAR THE TN RIVER AND NEAR THE
MS/AL STATE LINE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. CLEARING WILL THEN
OCCUR WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DRY AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CAN BE EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT SHOULD BRING NOTHING MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS AS DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING. 12Z MOS TEMPERATURES WERE ACCEPTED.
THANKSGIVING DAY...A BREEZY AND COOL DAY CAN BE EXPECTED. THINK
MORE CLOUDS WILL BE NORTH OF A HARRISBURG AR TO TUPELO MS LINE
CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGH. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR PARIS TN. WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW 12Z
MEXMOS TEMPERATURES.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LOWS FRIDAY MORNING MAY BE THE
COLDEST OF THE SEASON WITH MUCH OF THE AREA NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BY SATURDAY AS SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LATEST MODELS SUGGEST
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA. PREFERRED THE FASTER 12Z
ECMWF AND GEM SOLUTIONS...THUS INCREASED RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME SLIGHTLY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR. WENT
TOWARDS THE 12Z MEXMOS NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES.
MBS
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
AS OF TAF ISSUANCE...MVFR CIGS IN PLACE AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT
VFR TEMPORARILY AT KJBR...AND SOME RESTRICTION TO VISIBILITY DUE
TO PATCHY DRIZZLE AT KMKL. EXPECT A SMALL WINDOW OF MVFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING UNTIL 02 OR 03Z. CIGS
WILL THEN BECOME IFR/LIFR THROUGH 24/15Z. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE
FAIRLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT...BUT INCREASING TO 8-10KTS AFTER 15Z. THIS
WILL ALLOW CIGS TO QUICKLY INCREASE BACK TO MVFR. KJBR AND KMEM
STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE VICINITY SHOWERS WITH FROPA BEFORE
END OF TAF PERIOD...SO WILL MENTION IN TAFS.
BORGHOFF
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 50 63 45 59 / 0 50 10 10
MKL 48 63 42 58 / 0 50 30 10
JBR 49 61 42 57 / 10 60 10 10
TUP 46 65 45 61 / 0 20 30 0
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 232203
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
403 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009
.DISCUSSION...
DENSE FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN RAIN
CHANCES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.
LATEST MODELS WERE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT. USED A BLEND
OF THEM.
DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
AT 4 PM ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AND FORECAST AREA...CLOUDY AND COOL
CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. A
WEAK SURFACE HIGH WAS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A SURFACE LOW
WAS OVER OKLAHOMA.
TONIGHT...DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT IS THE BIGGEST CONCERN. CLEARING
LINE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NE TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING OVER THE AREA...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANY CLEARING WILL
LIKELY ALLOW SOME FOG TO DEVELOP WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 50S...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE DENSE. NOT CERTAIN ON HOW DENSE
AND WIDESPREAD FOG WILL BE...BUT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD
PART OF THE AREA TO BE IN DENSE FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT AND A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY. THUS...ADDED MENTION IN HWO.
WENT TOWARDS THE 12Z MAVMOS NUMBERS FOR LOWS TONIGHT...THOUGH
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP MORE THAN FORECAST IF BETTER CLEARING
OCCURS. CLOUDS WILL BE LAST TO CLEAR NEAR THE TN RIVER. ADDED A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER 3 AM FOR RANDOLPH AND LAWRENCE
COUNTIES AR AS COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THESE AREAS FROM THE WEST.
TUESDAY...PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY LINGER THROUGH 9 AM EAST OF I-55.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST AND LIKELY BRING A NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS...REACHING THE MS RIVER AROUND NOON...THEN MOVE INTO
ALABAMA AND EAST OF TN RIVER BY MIDNIGHT. KEPT RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY 30 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE WITH BEST CHANCES NEAR THE MO/AR
AND KY/TN BORDERS WHERE LIFT WILL BE BEST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 0.25 INCH AND RAINFALL DURATION WILL
PROBABLY BE SHORT...LESS THAN 3 HOURS. 12Z MAVMOS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S APPEARED REASONABLE.
TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS MAY LINGER NEAR THE TN RIVER AND NEAR THE
MS/AL STATE LINE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. CLEARING WILL THEN
OCCUR WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DRY AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CAN BE EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT SHOULD BRING NOTHING MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS AS DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING. 12Z MOS TEMPERATURES WERE ACCEPTED.
THANKSGIVING DAY...A BREEZY AND COOL DAY CAN BE EXPECTED. THINK
MORE CLOUDS WILL BE NORTH OF A HARRISBURG AR TO TUPELO MS LINE
CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGH. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR PARIS TN. WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW 12Z
MEXMOS TEMPERATURES.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LOWS FRIDAY MORNING MAY BE THE
COLDEST OF THE SEASON WITH MUCH OF THE AREA NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BY SATURDAY AS SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LATEST MODELS SUGGEST
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA. PREFERRED THE FASTER 12Z
ECMWF AND GEM SOLUTIONS...THUS INCREASED RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME SLIGHTLY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR. WENT
TOWARDS THE 12Z MEXMOS NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES.
MBS
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
LOW IFR CIGS IN PLACE AT ALL TAF SITES WITH SOME RESTRICTION TO
VISIBILITY AND PATCHY DRIZZLE AT KMEM AND KJBR. NO BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF THE MIDSOUTH AS COOLER AIR REMAINS
TRAPPED IN THE LOWEST 040FT AGL. THUS SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT THAT ONLY
A SMALL WINDOW OF MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY BETWEEN
21-03Z. THEN CIGS WILL BECOME IFR/LIFR THIS EVENING THROUGH
24/15Z. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT...BUT
INCREASING TO 8-10KTS AFTER 15Z. THIS WILL ALLOW CIGS TO INCREASE
MORE RAPIDLY TO MVFR CONDITIONS. IMPROVEMENTS NOT ANTICIPATED TILL
AFTER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO REGION SHORTLY AFTER 24/18Z.
HOWEVER...KJBR WILL SEE VICINITY SHOWERS BEFORE END OF TAF PERIOD.
JAB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 50 63 45 59 / 0 50 10 10
MKL 48 63 42 58 / 0 50 30 10
JBR 49 61 42 57 / 10 60 10 10
TUP 46 65 45 61 / 0 20 30 0
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KOHX 232130
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
330 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009
.DISCUSSION...
DEVELOPING LOW IN THE PLAINS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE MIDSTATE TONIGHT
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE TUE PM IN THE NW AND GENERALLY OVER THE
AREA TUE NGT. RAIN PULLS EWD EARLY WED WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE AREA WED NGT AND THU. ONLY A SLGT CHANCE OF RAIN
ON THU AND THEN POSSIBLY RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW LATE THU NGT. 850MB
TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -6C ON THU EVE.
PRECIP SHOULD END EARLY FRI WITH MOST OF FRI AND SAT BEING DRY AS A
LARGE SFC RIDGE MOVES EWD ACROSS THE SERN STATES. WEATHER FOR
"BLACK FRIDAY" WILL LIKELY BE COLD WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
IN THE AFTERNOON. THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL
LIKELY NOT CAUSE ANY PROBLEMS...EXPECT THAT WHATEVER SNOW DOES
FALL WILL MELT QUICKLY.
SLY FLOW RETURNS ON SAT AS ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE WRN
PLAINS. THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA ON SUN WITH A CHANCE OF
PRECIP OVER THE AREA ON SUN AND MON. THE GFS DEVELOPS A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE CENTER ON THE SRN END OF THE FRONT AND IT PUSHES NEWD
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY SUN NGT AND EARLY MON AND THEN THROUGH
THE MIDSTATE ON MON. HOWEVER...THE EURO IS MUCH SLOWER TO MOVE THE
LOW NEWD...DELAYING THAT UNTIL MON NGT.
CPC OUTLOOKS CONTINUE ON THE COLD SIDE BUT THE PRECIP OUTLOOK HAS MOVED
TO THE ABOVE NORMAL AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 47 63 44 58 / 10 10 30 10
CLARKSVILLE 46 63 42 56 / 10 20 30 10
CROSSVILLE 43 58 42 57 / 10 10 30 10
COLUMBIA 47 63 44 59 / 10 10 30 10
LAWRENCEBURG 46 63 43 60 / 10 10 30 10
WAVERLY 47 63 42 57 / 10 20 30 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
JLM
000
FXUS64 KMRX 232009
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
309 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED
BETWEEN ABOUT 3500 AND 7000 FEET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BREAKS
OCCURRED LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AND HAVE PROGRESSED
NE UP THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE NC BORDER. THIS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES
TO RISE TO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 FOR MOST PLACES IN THE VALLEY
AND LOWER MOUNTAINS. LIGHT WINDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
WILL KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT BUT WHERE THERE ARE BREAKS FOG IS
LIKELY TO FORM. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY FALL TO UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S. TUESDAY EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY CLOUDY MORNING BUT BY AFTERNOON
SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SCOUR
OUT THE MOISTURE. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN THE LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE TN
RIVER VALLEY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT MODELS
AGREE THAT MOISTURE WILL BE SHALLOW AND LIMITED...SO WILL MENTION
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS THEN PROGGED
TO AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION ON THURSDAY...
BRINGING ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR INTO FRIDAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD GENERATE SOME SCATTERED RAIN/
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS AGREE THAT MOISTURE
WILL BE SHALLOW AND LIMITED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SO WILL MENTION
ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH A RAPID WARMING TREND DEVELOPING AS
WELL. ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS THEN PROGGED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE PLAINS BY THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH MAY DEVELOP A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY. GFS
AND ECMWF MODELS REVEAL SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT
OF THIS LOW...BUT BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. AS FOR TEMPS...TRENDED CLOSE TO
THE GFS GUIDANCE NUMBERS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 46 63 46 63 40 / 10 10 20 20 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 44 62 46 62 39 / 10 10 20 20 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 44 62 46 62 40 / 10 10 20 20 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 40 63 42 60 38 / 10 10 20 20 10
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
TD/DMG
000
FXUS64 KOHX 231758
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1158 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009
.UPDATE...
GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE MOISTURE INDICATED BY THE SOUNDING BELOW 700MB
AND THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK TROUGH ALOFT...HAVE EXTENDED MENTION OF
DRIZZLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
JLM
000
FXUS64 KMEG 231743
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1143 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009/
UPDATE...
KEPT AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE THROUGH 3 PM AND LOWERED HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES TODAY.
DISCUSSION...
DREARY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY.
AT 10 AM ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AND FORECAST AREA...AREAS OF FOG AND
DRIZZLE WERE REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 3 MILES OR LESS IN MANY
LOCATIONS. UNDER CLOUDY SKIES...SURFACE TEMPERATURES RANGED
BETWEEN 47 AND 55 DEGREES. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WERE OCCURRING.
REST OF TODAY...AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES MORE SHALLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM UP MUCH UNDER CLOUDY SKIES...SO LOWERED
HIGHS IN MOST LOCATIONS THINKING THEY WILL ONLY REACH 55 TO 62
DEGREES. GETTING BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS APPEARS UNLIKELY TODAY OR
TONIGHT WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE TAPPED BENEATH A LOW LEVEL
INVERSION AROUND 850 MB. ALSO...INCREASED TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
A FEW DEGREES THINKING CLOUDS WILL NOT LET TEMPERATURES FALL MUCH.
UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT.
MBS
PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 447 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009/
DISCUSSION...
SKIES WILL REMAIN MAINLY OVERCAST ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER A STRONG 850 MB
INVERSION. THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY. THE REGION SHOULD
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE MAINLY
ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY LATER THIS EVENING AND THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
STRONG H5 TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS PUSH TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY ON
TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES AND SWING A COLD FRONT THOUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT WILL OCCLUDE IN THE VICINITY OF THE MIDSOUTH AND WITH
THE LACK OF DECENT FORCING...BELIEVE THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE ONLY
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY EVENING.
SKIES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO CLEAR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A MUCH
STRONGER H5 SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW THE FIRST AND BRING SHARP HEIGHT
FALLS INTO THE MIDSOUTH THURSDAY. MODELS DEPICT 850 MB TEMPERATURES
IN THE -4C TO -6C RANGE FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO
SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR THE FREEZING MARK. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA KEEPING
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY.
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL RETURN SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
EAST OF THE AREA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BACK
TO THE MIDSOUTH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS DIVERGE AT THIS POINT.
THE ECMWF BUILDS ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE INTO THE AREA. THE GFS ON
THE OTHER HAND DEPICTS A MUCH STRONGER H5 TROUGH DIGGING DEEP INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SLOWING THE SURFACE LOW AND SUBSEQUENT
RIDGE DEVELOPMENT.
CCD
AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
LOW IFR CIGS IN PLACE AT ALL TAF SITES WITH SOME RESTRICTION TO
VISIBILITY AND PATCHY DRIZZLE AT KMEM AND KJBR. NO BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF THE MIDSOUTH AS COOLER AIR REMAINS
TRAPPED IN THE LOWEST 040FT AGL. THUS SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT THAT ONLY
A SMALL WINDOW OF MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY BETWEEN
21-03Z. THEN CIGS WILL BECOME IFR/LIFR THIS EVENING THROUGH
24/15Z. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT...BUT
INCREASING TO 8-10KTS AFTER 15Z. THIS WILL ALLOW CIGS TO INCREASE
MORE RAPIDLY TO MVFR CONDITIONS. IMPROVEMENTS NOT ANTICIPATED TILL
AFTER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO REGION SHORTLY AFTER 24/18Z.
HOWEVER...KJBR WILL SEE VICINITY SHOWERS BEFORE END OF TAF PERIOD.
JAB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 60 53 63 45 / 10 10 50 20
MKL 57 50 61 41 / 10 10 40 20
JBR 59 52 61 40 / 10 10 50 10
TUP 57 51 64 44 / 10 10 20 20
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMRX 231726
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1226 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.AVIATION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER EAST TN
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CEILINGS FROM 3 TO 5 THOUSAND FEET FOR THE
SHORT TERM BUT LOWER CEILINGS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR CHA AND TRI.
WILL KEEP TYS AND TRI VFR UNTIL TONIGHT...THEN FOG AND LOWER
CEILINGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. WILL TAKE TYS AS LOW AS IFR LATE
TONIGHT FOR VISIBILITY AND TRI AS LOW AS VLIFR FOR CEILING AND
VISIBILITY. CEILINGS AND FOG LIFT BY 14Z TUESDAY.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
TD
000
FXUS64 KMEG 231605
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1005 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009
.UPDATE...
KEPT AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE THROUGH 3 PM AND LOWERED HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES TODAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
DREARY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY.
AT 10 AM ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AND FORECAST AREA...AREAS OF FOG AND
DRIZZLE WERE REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 3 MILES OR LESS IN MANY
LOCATIONS. UNDER CLOUDY SKIES...SURFACE TEMPERATURES RANGED
BETWEEN 47 AND 55 DEGREES. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WERE OCCURRING.
REST OF TODAY...AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES MORE SHALLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM UP MUCH UNDER CLOUDY SKIES...SO LOWERED
HIGHS IN MOST LOCATIONS THINKING THEY WILL ONLY REACH 55 TO 62
DEGREES. GETTING BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS APPEARS UNLIKELY TODAY OR
TONIGHT WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE TAPPED BENEATH A LOW LEVEL
INVERSION AROUND 850 MB. ALSO...INCREASED TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
A FEW DEGREES THINKING CLOUDS WILL NOT LET TEMPERATURES FALL MUCH.
UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT.
MBS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 447 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009/
DISCUSSION...
SKIES WILL REMAIN MAINLY OVERCAST ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER A STRONG 850 MB
INVERSION. THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY. THE REGION SHOULD
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE MAINLY
ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY LATER THIS EVENING AND THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
STRONG H5 TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS PUSH TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY ON
TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES AND SWING A COLD FRONT THOUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT WILL OCCLUDE IN THE VICINITY OF THE MIDSOUTH AND WITH
THE LACK OF DECENT FORCING...BELIEVE THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE ONLY
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY EVENING.
SKIES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO CLEAR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A MUCH
STRONGER H5 SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW THE FIRST AND BRING SHARP HEIGHT
FALLS INTO THE MIDSOUTH THURSDAY. MODELS DEPICT 850 MB TEMPERATURES
IN THE -4C TO -6C RANGE FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO
SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR THE FREEZING MARK. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA KEEPING
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY.
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL RETURN SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
EAST OF THE AREA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BACK
TO THE MIDSOUTH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS DIVERGE AT THIS POINT.
THE ECMWF BUILDS ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE INTO THE AREA. THE GFS ON
THE OTHER HAND DEPICTS A MUCH STRONGER H5 TROUGH DIGGING DEEP INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SLOWING THE SURFACE LOW AND SUBSEQUENT
RIDGE DEVELOPMENT.
CCD
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
LOW CIGS AND VSBYS PERSIST AT MOST TAF SITES THIS MORNING WITH
IFR DOWN TO VLIFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING. EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO
SLOWLY IMPROVE BY MID TO LATE MORNING BUT STILL EXPECTING MVFR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WITH A PERSISTENT OVERCAST
AS LOW LEVEL INVERSION REMAINS STRONG TRAPPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY AS WELL.
SKIES MAY TEMPORARILY BECOME BROKEN FOR A PERIOD LATER THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT MEM AND JBR...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY FILL IN
AND DETERIORATE LATER TONIGHT WITH IFR OR LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS
REDEVELOPING AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
TUESDAY AT ALL TAF SITES.
JLH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 60 53 63 45 / 10 10 50 20
MKL 57 50 61 41 / 10 10 40 20
JBR 59 52 61 40 / 10 10 50 10
TUP 57 51 64 44 / 10 10 20 20
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMRX 231520
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1015 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.DISCUSSION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES THIS MORNING WITH SOME
BREAKS SOUTHEAST LATE THIS MORNING. RADAR IMAGES SHOWS ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION HAS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE COVERS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES WITH HIGH CENTER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES. LITTLE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. NEW NAM GUIDANCE SHOWS BREAKS IN
CLOUDS WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER 60S. BUT DO NOT SEE
THIS HAPPENING AND EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE AND SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE
AND SHOWERS NE. HIGH TEMPS STILL LOOK GOOD. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT
FORECAST.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
TD
000
FXUS64 KOHX 231232
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
632 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009
.UPDATE...UPDATED TO ADD INCREASE POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES, WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGE.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
19
000
FXUS64 KMEG 231140
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
540 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009/
DISCUSSION...
SKIES WILL REMAIN MAINLY OVERCAST ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER A STRONG 850 MB
INVERSION. THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY. THE REGION SHOULD
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE MAINLY
ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY LATER THIS EVENING AND THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
STRONG H5 TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS PUSH TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY ON
TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES AND SWING A COLD FRONT THOUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT WILL OCCLUDE IN THE VICINITY OF THE MIDSOUTH AND WITH
THE LACK OF DECENT FORCING...BELIEVE THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE ONLY
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY EVENING.
SKIES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO CLEAR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A MUCH
STRONGER H5 SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW THE FIRST AND BRING SHARP HEIGHT
FALLS INTO THE MIDSOUTH THURSDAY. MODELS DEPICT 850 MB TEMPERATURES
IN THE -4C TO -6C RANGE FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO
SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR THE FREEZING MARK. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA KEEPING
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY.
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL RETURN SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
EAST OF THE AREA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BACK
TO THE MIDSOUTH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS DIVERGE AT THIS POINT.
THE ECMWF BUILDS ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE INTO THE AREA. THE GFS ON
THE OTHER HAND DEPICTS A MUCH STRONGER H5 TROUGH DIGGING DEEP INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SLOWING THE SURFACE LOW AND SUBSEQUENT
RIDGE DEVELOPMENT.
CCD
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
LOW CIGS AND VISBYS PERSIST AT MOST TAF SITES THIS MORNING WITH
IFR DOWN TO VLIFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING. EXPECT CIGS AND VISBYS TO
SLOWLY IMPROVE BY MID TO LATE MORNING BUT STILL EXPECTING MVFR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WITH A PERSISTENT OVERCAST
AS LOW LEVEL INVERSION REMAINS STRONG TRAPPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY AS WELL.
SKIES MAY TEMPORARILY BECOME BROKEN FOR A PERIOD LATER THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT MEM AND JBR...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY FILL IN
AND DETERIORATE LATER TONIGHT WITH IFR OR LOWER CIGS AND VISBYS
REDEVELOPING AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
TUESDAY AT ALL TAF SITES.
JLH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 62 49 63 45 / 0 10 50 20
MKL 57 46 61 41 / 10 10 40 20
JBR 62 46 61 40 / 10 10 50 10
TUP 58 46 64 44 / 0 10 20 20
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMRX 231120
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
620 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.AVIATION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA DURING THE
TAF PERIOD. CIG AND VIS FORECAST IS DIFFICULT IN THIS REGIME...SO
CONFIDENCE LOWER THAN USUAL. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH PREDOMINATELY
MVFR CONDITIONS AT CHA...BUT WILL KEEP TYS AND TRI VFR UNTIL
TONIGHT...WHEN SOME FOG AND LOWER CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. WILL
TAKE TYS AS LOW AS VFR LATE AND TRI AS LOW AS LIFR.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
LDW
000
FXUS64 KMEG 231047
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
447 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SKIES WILL REMAIN MAINLY OVERCAST ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER A STRONG 850 MB
INVERSION. THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY. THE REGION SHOULD
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE MAINLY
ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY LATER THIS EVENING AND THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
STRONG H5 TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS PUSH TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY ON
TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES AND SWING A COLD FRONT THOUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT WILL OCCLUDE IN THE VICINITY OF THE MIDSOUTH AND WITH
THE LACK OF DECENT FORCING...BELIEVE THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE ONLY
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY EVENING.
SKIES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO CLEAR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A MUCH
STRONGER H5 SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW THE FIRST AND BRING SHARP HEIGHT
FALLS INTO THE MIDSOUTH THURSDAY. MODELS DEPICT 850 MB TEMPERATURES
IN THE -4C TO -6C RANGE FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO
SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR THE FREEZING MARK. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA KEEPING
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY.
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL RETURN SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
EAST OF THE AREA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BACK
TO THE MIDSOUTH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS DIVERGE AT THIS POINT.
THE ECMWF BUILDS ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE INTO THE AREA. THE GFS ON
THE OTHER HAND DEPICTS A MUCH STRONGER H5 TROUGH DIGGING DEEP INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SLOWING THE SURFACE LOW AND SUBSEQUENT
RIDGE DEVELOPMENT.
CCD
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
MVFR CIGS PREVAILED ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AT DISCUSSION TIME...WITH
IFR CIGS NOTED ON KMEM...KTUP AND KUOX METARS. SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWED A MOISTURE AXIS ROUGHLY OVER THE MS RIVER DELTA...WHILE
DRIER AIR WAS EDGING IN FROM FROM MIDDLE TN/NORTH AL INTO KMKL
AND KTUP. KJBR WAS ON THE EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE.
OVERALL...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE FROM THE 00Z TAF PACKAGES...OTHER
THAN TO CARRY OVER TEMPO DRIZZLE FROM EARLIER AMENDMENTS. IT
APPEARS THAT ALL TAF SITES WITH HAVE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF IFR
OVERNIGHT. IFR WILL REMAIN LIKELY KMEM AND PERHAPS KJBR...AS THESE
TERMINALS REMAIN IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS.
PWB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 62 49 63 45 / 0 10 50 20
MKL 57 46 61 41 / 10 10 40 20
JBR 62 46 61 40 / 10 10 50 10
TUP 58 46 64 44 / 0 10 20 20
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KOHX 230912
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
310 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009
.SHORT TERM...IT WAS CLOUDY ACROSS THE MID STATE EARLY THIS MORNING,
WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY BETWEEN 47 AND 50 DEGREES AT MOST
LOCATIONS.
EXPECT BAND OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO HOLD TOUGH ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
TODAY, ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE
IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON, WHERE SOME BREAKS MAY START TO OCCUR.
MOISTURE BAND LIFTS TO THE NORTH TONIGHT, AS NEXT FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEW POINTS ACROSS THE MID STATE
REMAIN RATHER HIGH. THUS, ANY CLEARING THAT TAKES PLACE TONIGHT
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY FOG DEVELOPMENT, AND WILL GO WITH AREAS OF FOG
FOR ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT.
EXPECT SOME PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY, AS NEXT COLD
FRONT MOVES IN, AND BELIEVE TEMPERATURES COULD WARM RATHER NICELY
DURING THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-65 CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD.
FOR THIS REASON, WILL PROBABLY GO CLOSE TO THE WARMER GFS MOS MAX
TEMPS FOR TOMORROW. MOST AREAS STAND A CHANCE FOR AT LEAST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN AS THE FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE MID
STATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, A SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS IN AND BRINGS
ALONG AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS BY LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS
FRONT WILL ALSO BRING ALONG A TURN TO COLDER CONDITIONS, AS UPPER
TROUGH STARTS TO CARVE OUT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND TENNESSEE
AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. AS THIS
COOLING TREND TAKES PLACE AND ATMOSPHERE REMAINS RELATIVELY
MOIST, BELIEVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY (ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS).
.LONG TERM...AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO POUR INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL
DROP SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A MIX OF LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW. SO, WILL PROBABLY LEAVE CURRENT FORECAST FOR THAT
PERIOD PRETTY MUCH UNTOUCHED. COOL AND DRIPPY WEATHER CONTINUES
INTO FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST. HOWEVER, COLD SURFACE
RIDGE FINALLY STARTS TO IMPACT OUR WEATHER BY THE WEEKEND, WITH
RIDGE AXIS PROBABLY TRAVERSING THE AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING ALONG A CLEARING TREND AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SOME FREEZING
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 58 49 63 47 / 20 10 10 40
CLARKSVILLE 56 47 61 45 / 10 10 20 50
CROSSVILLE 52 46 58 45 / 20 10 10 40
COLUMBIA 58 48 63 47 / 10 10 10 40
LAWRENCEBURG 58 47 63 45 / 10 10 10 40
WAVERLY 58 47 62 46 / 10 10 20 40
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
19
000
FXUS64 KOHX 230910
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
310 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009
.SHORT TERM...IT WAS CLOUDY ACROSS THE MID STATE EARLY THIS MORNING,
WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY BETWEEN 47 AND 50 DEGREES AT MOST
LOCATIONS.
EXPECT BAND OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO HOLD TOUGH ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
TODAY, ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE
IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON, WHERE SOME BREAKS MAY START TO OCCUR.
MOISTURE BAND LIFTS TO THE NORTH TONIGHT, AS NEXT FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEW POINTS ACROSS THE MID STATE
REMAIN RATHER HIGH. THUS, ANY CLEARING THAT TAKES PLACE TONIGHT
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY FOG DEVELOPMENT, AND WILL GO WITH AREAS OF FOG
FOR ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT.
EXPECT SOME PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY, AS NEXT COLD
FRONT MOVES IN, AND BELIEVE TEMPERATURES COULD WARM RATHER NICELY
DURING THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-65 CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD.
FOR THIS REASON, WILL PROBABLY GO CLOSE TO THE WARMER GFS MOS MAX
TEMPS FOR TOMORROW. MOST AREAS STAND A CHANCE FOR AT LEAST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN AS THE FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE MID
STATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, A SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS IN AND BRINGS
ALONG AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS BY LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS
FRONT WILL ALSO BRING ALONG A TURN TO COLDER CONDITIONS, AS UPPER
TROUGH STARTS TO CARVE OUT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND TENNESSEE
AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. AS THIS
COOLING TREND TAKES PLACE AND ATMOSPHERIC REMAINS RELATIVELY
MOIST, BELIEVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY (ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS).
.LONG TERM...AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO POUR INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL
DROP SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A MIX OF LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW. SO, WILL PROBABLY LEAVE CURRENT FORECAST FOR THAT
PERIOD PRETTY MUCH UNTOUCHED. COOL AND DRIPPY WEATHER CONTINUES
INTO FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST. HOWEVER, COLD SURFACE
RIDGE FINALLY STARTS TO IMPACT OUR WEATHER BY THE WEEKEND, WITH
RIDGE AXIS PROBABLY TRAVERSING THE AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING ALONG A CLEARING TREND AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SOME FREEZING
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 58 49 63 47 / 20 10 10 40
CLARKSVILLE 56 47 61 45 / 10 10 20 50
CROSSVILLE 52 46 58 45 / 20 10 10 40
COLUMBIA 58 48 63 47 / 10 10 10 40
LAWRENCEBURG 58 47 63 45 / 10 10 10 40
WAVERLY 58 47 62 46 / 10 10 20 40
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
19
000
FXUS64 KMRX 230735
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
235 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER
OVER THE AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM. EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND
MAY BE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR
NORTHEAST ZONES TODAY...BUT WITH LITTLE FORCING NOT MUCH MEASURABLE
PRECIP EXPECTED. MAV TEMPS GENERALLY LOOK REASONABLE...SO ONLY SOME
MINOR TWEAKS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...PATTERN WILL REMAIN RATHER
PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PER MODEL AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS.
HEIGHTS ALSO FALL AS TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER EASTERN CONUS
BY THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH FALLING TEMPS IN
STORE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN
AND TEMPS RECOVER TO NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO BY NEXT
WEEKEND. POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT FOR MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY BUT MAGNITUDE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. OVERALL...HAVE NOT
MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PRECEDING GRIDS/FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 55 47 64 45 63 / 10 10 10 20 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 55 44 62 44 63 / 10 10 10 20 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 56 44 61 44 61 / 10 10 10 20 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 54 41 63 40 62 / 20 10 10 10 20
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
LDW/LCM
000
FXUS64 KMEG 230544 AAC
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1144 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR AVIATION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 948 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/
UPDATE...
RADAR AND SOME AREA OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A BIT OF FOG AND
DRIZZLE DEVELOPING...WITH VISIBILITIES RANGING FROM 1 TO 3
MILES. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WILL LIMIT COOLING TONIGHT...SO NOT
EXPECTING DENSE FOG ATTM. UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS TO MENTION
PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE...OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
BORGHOFF
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/
UPDATED FOR AVIATION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/
DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON PLACES AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE ALABAMA/NORTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST WHILE
UPPER AIR PROFILERS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR NASHVILLE. LOW CLOUDS HAVE RETROGRADED BACK
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CST IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ALONG THE
TENNESSEE RIVER IN WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA. MAIN CHALLENGE
FOR THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST PACKAGE IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...WRF/GFS SHORT TERM
MODELS INDICATE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ALONG THE ALABAMA/NORTHWEST FLORIDA GULF
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT.
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT.
DECIDED TO KEEP RAIN/DRIZZLE OUT OF THE FORECAST TONIGHT AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THINK LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE/WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN FAVORABLE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION PROCESSES TO OCCUR.
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE MID SOUTH MONDAY AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. USED THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR
FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING AS THE NAM IS THE SLOW OUTLIER FROM THE 12Z
MODEL RUN. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS SEEM REASONABLE
HERE AS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM. ALSO KEPT THUNDER OUT OF FORECAST AS INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN LIMITED AT BEST ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...12Z ECMWF/GFS LONG
RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
BY THANKSGIVING DAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE RETURN OF CLOUDS
ACROSS AREAS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-40 WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE
40S TO AROUND 50 AT BEST ON THANKSGIVING DAY AND COLD TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER 30S BY FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE 12Z ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN THE 12Z GFS BUT CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO INTRODUCE POPS AT THIS POINT.
CJC
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
MVFR CIGS PREVAILED ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AT DISCUSSION TIME...WITH
IFR CIGS NOTED ON KMEM...KTUP AND KUOX METARS. SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWED A MOISTURE AXIS ROUGHLY OVER THE MS RIVER DELTA...WHILE
DRIER AIR WAS EDGING IN FROM FROM MIDDLE TN/NORTH AL INTO KMKL
AND KTUP. KJBR WAS ON THE EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE.
OVERALL...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE FROM THE 00Z TAF PACKAGES...OTHER
THAN TO CARRY OVER TEMPO DRIZZLE FROM EARLIER AMENDMENTS. IT
APPEARS THAT ALL TAF SITES WITH HAVE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF IFR
OVERNIGHT. IFR WILL REMAIN LIKELY KMEM AND PERHAPS KJBR...AS THESE
TERMINALS REMAIN IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS.
PWB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 48 63 49 62 / 10 0 10 50
MKL 47 56 46 60 / 10 10 10 40
JBR 48 61 46 60 / 0 10 10 50
TUP 49 59 46 65 / 10 0 10 30
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMRX 230522
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1222 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.AVIATION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA DURING THE
TAF PERIOD. CIG AND VIS FORECAST IS DIFFICULT IN THIS REGIME...SO
CONFIDENCE LOWER THAN USUAL. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH PREDOMINATELY
MVFR CONDITIONS AT CHA AND MUCH OF THE PERIOD AT TYS...WITH MVFR
MAINLY EARLY AT TRI FOLLOWED BY VFR. HOWEVER...LOWER CIGS/VIS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
LDW
000
FXUS64 KMEG 230348 AAB
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
948 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.UPDATE...
RADAR AND SOME AREA OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A BIT OF FOG AND
DRIZZLE DEVELOPING...WITH VISIBILITIES RANGING FROM 1 TO 3
MILES. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WILL LIMIT COOLING TONIGHT...SO NOT
EXPECTING DENSE FOG ATTM. UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS TO MENTION
PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE...OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
BORGHOFF
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/
UPDATED FOR AVIATION.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/
DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON PLACES AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE ALABAMA/NORTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST WHILE
UPPER AIR PROFILERS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR NASHVILLE. LOW CLOUDS HAVE RETROGRADED BACK
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CST IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ALONG THE
TENNESSEE RIVER IN WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA. MAIN CHALLENGE
FOR THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST PACKAGE IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...WRF/GFS SHORT TERM
MODELS INDICATE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ALONG THE ALABAMA/NORTHWEST FLORIDA GULF
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT.
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT.
DECIDED TO KEEP RAIN/DRIZZLE OUT OF THE FORECAST TONIGHT AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THINK LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE/WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN FAVORABLE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION PROCESSES TO OCCUR.
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE MID SOUTH MONDAY AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. USED THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR
FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING AS THE NAM IS THE SLOW OUTLIER FROM THE 12Z
MODEL RUN. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS SEEM REASONABLE
HERE AS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM. ALSO KEPT THUNDER OUT OF FORECAST AS INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN LIMITED AT BEST ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...12Z ECMWF/GFS LONG
RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
BY THANKSGIVING DAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE RETURN OF CLOUDS
ACROSS AREAS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-40 WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE
40S TO AROUND 50 AT BEST ON THANKSGIVING DAY AND COLD TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER 30S BY FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE 12Z ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN THE 12Z GFS BUT CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO INTRODUCE POPS AT THIS POINT.
CJC
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS
UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER MIDDLE TN...PULLING QUICKLY
NORTHEAST AT DISCUSSION TIME. LOW STRATUS OVER SOUTH AND CENTRAL
MS WAS SLOWLY SPREADING NORTH... AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVING
INTO THE OZARKS. EXPECT IFR CIGS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS WILL
SPREAD NORTH INTO THE MIDSOUTH LATE TONIGHT...AFTER 08Z. GIVEN THE
LACK OF A WELL DEFINED WARM FRONT...HAVE KEPT CIGS NEAR THE UPPER
END OF IFR.
MVFR STRATUS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DISSIPATE ON MONDAY...WITH
WEAKENING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 850MB THERMAL TROF OVER
THE AREA.
PWB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 47 63 49 62 / 10 0 10 50
MKL 46 56 46 60 / 10 10 10 40
JBR 47 61 46 60 / 0 10 10 50
TUP 48 59 46 65 / 10 0 10 30
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMRX 230235
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
935 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.DISCUSSION...RADAR INDICATING HEAVIER RAIN HAS PUSHED INTO
NORTHEAST TN AND SOUTHWEST VA AND LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE
REGION. WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO LOWER POPS A BIT IN THE SOUTH AND
KEEP LIKELY IN THE NORTHERN AREAS...BUT MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES AND THE REST OF THE
FORECAST ON TRACK...NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 46 55 46 65 46 / 50 20 0 10 20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 45 54 45 65 47 / 50 30 10 10 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 46 54 44 64 47 / 50 30 10 10 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 41 53 41 62 42 / 70 30 20 10 20
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
GH
000
FXUS64 KOHX 230135
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
735 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.UPDATE...
RAIN HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY LAST HOUR OR SO. WILL UPDATE TO
LOWER POPS.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MAG
000
FXUS64 KMEG 222357 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
557 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR AVIATION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/
DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON PLACES AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE ALABAMA/NORTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST WHILE
UPPER AIR PROFILERS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR NASHVILLE. LOW CLOUDS HAVE RETROGRADED BACK
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CST IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ALONG THE
TENNESSEE RIVER IN WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA. MAIN CHALLENGE
FOR THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST PACKAGE IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...WRF/GFS SHORT TERM
MODELS INDICATE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ALONG THE ALABAMA/NORTHWEST FLORIDA GULF
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT.
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT.
DECIDED TO KEEP RAIN/DRIZZLE OUT OF THE FORECAST TONIGHT AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THINK LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE/WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN FAVORABLE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION PROCESSES TO OCCUR.
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE MID SOUTH MONDAY AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. USED THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR
FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING AS THE NAM IS THE SLOW OUTLIER FROM THE 12Z
MODEL RUN. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS SEEM REASONABLE
HERE AS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM. ALSO KEPT THUNDER OUT OF FORECAST AS INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN LIMITED AT BEST ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...12Z ECMWF/GFS LONG
RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
BY THANKSGIVING DAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE RETURN OF CLOUDS
ACROSS AREAS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-40 WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE
40S TO AROUND 50 AT BEST ON THANKSGIVING DAY AND COLD TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER 30S BY FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE 12Z ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN THE 12Z GFS BUT CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO INTRODUCE POPS AT THIS POINT.
CJC
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS
UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER MIDDLE TN...PULLING QUICKLY
NORTHEAST AT DISCUSSION TIME. LOW STRATUS OVER SOUTH AND CENTRAL
MS WAS SLOWLY SPREADING NORTH... AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVING
INTO THE OZARKS. EXPECT IFR CIGS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS WILL
SPREAD NORTH INTO THE MIDSOUTH LATE TONIGHT...AFTER 08Z. GIVEN THE
LACK OF A WELL DEFINED WARM FRONT...HAVE KEPT CIGS NEAR THE UPPER
END OF IFR.
MVFR STRATUS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DISSIPATE ON MONDAY...WITH
WEAKENING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 850MB THERMAL TROF OVER
THE AREA.
PWB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 47 63 49 62 / 10 0 10 50
MKL 46 56 46 60 / 10 10 10 40
JBR 47 61 46 60 / 0 10 10 50
TUP 48 59 46 65 / 10 0 10 30
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
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