[top]
000
FXUS64 KMRX 082356
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
656 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.AVIATION...TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE
TAF PERIOD BUT MAINLY ABOVE TWENTY THOUSAND FEET SO SHOULD NOT
PRESENT ANY PROBLEMS FOR FLIGHT.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
[top]
000
FXUS64 KMEG 082253 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
453 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE
MID SOUTH AND NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD KEEP DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN
THE FORECAST INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS MOISTURE ALOFT CONTINUES
TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH.
THE BIG WEATHER STORY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE THE
EVENTUAL TRACK AND IMPACTS FROM HURRICANE IDA. IDA HAS JUST
RECENTLY ENTERED THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND CONTINUES TO
MOVE NORTHWESTWARD. IDA IS NOW A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 100 MPH. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE A WEAKENING TREND BEGINS AS MID AND
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR STRENGTHENS AND THE HURRICANE
MOVES INTO THE COOLER WATERS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO.
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...ONE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND A SECOND OVER THE BIG BEND OF TEXAS WILL
CONTINUE TO ERODE THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE AS THEY
LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH. THIS SHOULD HELP TO STEER
HURRICANE IDA INCREASINGLY NORTHWARD AND AT A QUICKER PACE ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. IDA SHOULD WEAKEN SOME MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST AND BEGINS AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. ALTHOUGH IDA WILL WEAKEN
SOME...IT NOW APPEARS AS THOUGH THE SYSTEM COULD STILL MAINTAIN
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AS IT REACHES THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST
BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
THERE STILL REMAINS SUFFICIENT SPREAD AMONG THE FORECAST MODELS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR WEST AND NORTH THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WILL MOVE. THIS HAS A RATHER LARGE IMPACT WITH RESPECT TO
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT IDA (OR ITS REMNANTS) SHOULD
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TO KEEP THE MAJORITY OF
THE RAIN CONFINED MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 40. THE GREATEST
RAIN POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WHERE LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN
MAINTAINED. ALSO HAVE ADDED THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE RAIN AT
TIMES OVER THESE AREAS. LIGHTER RAINS AND DECREASING CHANCES CAN
BE EXPECTED FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT FROM
THE WEST...BUT THINK THE MAJORITY OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
SWEPT EAST WITH THE REMNANTS OF IDA.
GUSTY NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH AND TROPICAL CYCLONE IDA. THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF FORECAST SHIFTS.
ANY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH IDA AND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION. IN ADDITION...MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO END OF THIS WEEK. THIS
WILL KEEP DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER IN PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
APPROACH FROM THE WEST NEXT WEEKEND WITH INCREASING MOISTURE...RAIN
CHANCES...AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
JLH
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE (09/00Z-10/00Z)
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WESTWARD
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. HURRICANE IDA WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL TURN MORE TO THE EAST
MONDAY BUT WILL REMAIN 8 KTS OR LESS.
JCL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 56 71 55 69 / 0 10 20 20
MKL 51 71 51 67 / 0 10 20 20
JBR 52 71 51 67 / 0 10 10 20
TUP 53 69 55 66 / 0 20 60 40
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
[top]
000
FXUS64 KOHX 082150
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
350 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SHORT TERM (THRU TUE NIGHT)...
H5 RIDGE W/LARGE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE ABOUT TO END. UPR RIDGE WL
DRIFT EAST TNGT WITH CIRRUS ON THE BACK SIDE.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES IN THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SOUTHERNMOST ONE IS HURRICANE IDA. NORTHERN SYS LOOKS TO
INCREASE CLOUDS AND PROVIDE FOR WARM TEMPS AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MON-MON NIGHT.
IDA WAS LOCATED JUST NE OFF THE TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. TPC
EXPECTS IDA TO TRACK NORTH MON...AND WL GET CLOSE TO THE AL GULF
COAST MON NGT. SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND DEFLECT
IT EAST ON TUE...PREFER EAST GFS SOLUTION. LIKELY POPS MON NIGHT-
TUE ACR SOUTH AND EAST MID TN.
AS IDA HEADS NE TUE...EXPECT IT TO WRAP COLD FRONT INTO MID TN FM
THE NORTH. COOLER DAY ON TAP...WITH SHOWERS LIKELY ACR THE PLAT
REGION. LINGER ISO RW- TUE NIGHT PLAT.
.LONG TERM (VET DAY-SUN...
MAINLY A DRY PERIOD WITH COOL TEMPS TO START. SOUTH FLOW AND WARMER
TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SAT NGT-SUN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 52 74 53 62 / 0 10 40 50
CLARKSVILLE 49 73 53 64 / 0 10 20 20
CROSSVILLE 46 72 50 56 / 0 10 20 70
COLUMBIA 52 73 53 63 / 0 10 50 50
LAWRENCEBURG 52 72 53 62 / 0 10 50 50
WAVERLY 51 73 53 65 / 0 10 20 20
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
04
000
FXUS64 KMEG 082108
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
308 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE
MID SOUTH AND NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD KEEP DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN
THE FORECAST INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS MOISTURE ALOFT CONTINUES
TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH.
THE BIG WEATHER STORY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE THE
EVENTUAL TRACK AND IMPACTS FROM HURRICANE IDA. IDA HAS JUST
RECENTLY ENTERED THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND CONTINUES TO
MOVE NORTHWESTWARD. IDA IS NOW A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 100 MPH. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE A WEAKENING TREND BEGINS AS MID AND
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR STRENGTHENS AND THE HURRICANE
MOVES INTO THE COOLER WATERS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO.
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...ONE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND A SECOND OVER THE BIG BEND OF TEXAS WILL
CONTINUE TO ERODE THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE AS THEY
LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH. THIS SHOULD HELP TO STEER
HURRICANE IDA INCREASINGLY NORTHWARD AND AT A QUICKER PACE ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. IDA SHOULD WEAKEN SOME MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST AND BEGINS AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. ALTHOUGH IDA WILL WEAKEN
SOME...IT NOW APPEARS AS THOUGH THE SYSTEM COULD STILL MAINTAIN
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AS IT REACHES THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST
BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
THERE STILL REMAINS SUFFICIENT SPREAD AMONG THE FORECAST MODELS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR WEST AND NORTH THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WILL MOVE. THIS HAS A RATHER LARGE IMPACT WITH RESPECT TO
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT IDA (OR ITS REMNANTS) SHOULD
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TO KEEP THE MAJORITY OF
THE RAIN CONFINED MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 40. THE GREATEST
RAIN POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WHERE LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN
MAINTAINED. ALSO HAVE ADDED THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE RAIN AT
TIMES OVER THESE AREAS. LIGHTER RAINS AND DECREASING CHANCES CAN
BE EXPECTED FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT FROM
THE WEST...BUT THINK THE MAJORITY OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
SWEPT EAST WITH THE REMNANTS OF IDA.
GUSTY NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH AND TROPICAL CYCLONE IDA. THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF FORECAST SHIFTS.
ANY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH IDA AND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION. IN ADDITION...MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO END OF THIS WEEK. THIS
WILL KEEP DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER IN PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
APPROACH FROM THE WEST NEXT WEEKEND WITH INCREASING MOISTURE...RAIN
CHANCES...AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
JLH
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
INCREASING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL BECOME BKN TO PERHAPS OVC BY 15Z
MONDAY.
AC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 56 71 55 69 / 0 10 20 20
MKL 51 71 51 67 / 0 10 20 20
JBR 52 71 51 67 / 0 10 10 20
TUP 53 69 55 66 / 0 20 60 40
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMRX 081935
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
235 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL
SHIFT EAST DURING THE SHORT TERM. WILL SEE INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS
DURING THE PERIOD. MAV TEMPS GENERALLY LOOK IN THE BALLPARK...SO
JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR
THE LONG TERM REMAINS EARLY TO MID WEEK EVENT. MODELS HAVE REVERSED
COURSE AND NOW HAVE TRENDED HAVING SIGNIFICANT PRECIP FOCUSED ON THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND SOUTHERN
STREAM MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM IDA BECOME PHASED. AS SUCH...
HAVE BUMPED UP POPS SIGNIFICANTLY TO HIGH LIKELY TO LOW CATEGORICAL
FOR TUESDAY. GFS DEPICTS UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME CLOSED CIRCULATION
JUST EAST OF OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES...AND HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THOSE AREAS INTO WEDNESDAY AS A CONSEQUENCE. OTHERWISE...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE
WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPS MODERATING AGAIN TO ABOVE
CLIMO. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE SLOWED NEXT WEEKEND`S SYSTEM DOWN
SOMEWHAT...BUT GEFS ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO DEPICT PRECIP ENCROACHING
BY NEXT SATURDAY SO CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY. WITH
REGARD TO TEMPS...GENERALLY FOLLOWED MAV/MEX GUIDANCE CLOSELY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 47 70 51 58 46 / 0 0 70 80 20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 40 67 49 57 45 / 0 0 20 80 50
OAK RIDGE, TN 41 69 49 57 46 / 0 0 20 80 50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 34 69 44 59 44 / 0 0 20 80 70
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
LDW/LCM
000
FXUS64 KOHX 081732 AAA
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1132 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.AVIATION...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SFC AND ALOFT
MAINTAIN CONTROL UNTIL EVENTUALLY MOVING EWD AND ALLOWING BKN CI
TO MOVE INTO THE MID STATE AFTER 12Z MON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/
.UPDATE...12Z AVIATION.
.AVIATION...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH A VERY
DRY AIRMASS AND GENERALLY A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE AREA CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS (CIRRUS FIBRATUS) CAN BE EXPECTED
TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. BELIEVE
DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL BE TOO LARGE FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG
LATE IN TAF PERIOD.
BOYD
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/
.DISCUSSION...
SFC/LL HIGH...UL RIDGE AND DRY AIRMASS REMAIN OVER THE MID-SOUTH THIS
MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN GENERAL POSITION THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY WHILE TS IDA MOVES FURTHER NORTH IN THE GULF AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT/UL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS.
BY LATE MONDAY...IDA IS LARGELY AFFECTING GULF COAST...WHILE UL TROUGH
AND WEAK SFC BOUNDARY HAVE ADVANCED TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON AMOUNT OF PCPN THAT WILL IMPACT THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY AS COLD FRONT/UL TROUGH PASS AND ULTIMATELY PUSH BRUNT
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. AT THIS POINT...WILL CONTINUE ISOLATED-SCATTERED
PCPN SCENARIO NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS IS CURRENTLY RUNNING.
SECONDARY UL TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER A FEW
EVENING SHOWERS EAST...THE STAGE WILL AGAIN BE SET FOR DRY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT AS UL RIDGE/SFC HIGH AGAIN SETTLE OVER THE
REGION.
MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINS AGAIN EARLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...
WHICH WILL DROP DOWN OVER THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND STALL IN THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
BRING ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS BACK INTO THE PICTURE OVER THE
WEEKEND.
TEMPS AGAIN EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMALS PRETTY MUCH THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31/JBW
000
FXUS64 KMEG 081730
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1130 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE TO AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/
UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD MORE CLOUD COVER TO SOUTHWEST ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TODAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THESE
AREAS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. UPDATED ZONES AND
GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO REFLECT CHANGES IN CLOUD COVER.
JLH
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
INCREASING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL BECOME BKN TO PERHAPS OVC BY 15Z
MONDAY.
AC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 75 56 71 55 / 0 0 10 20
MKL 75 49 70 51 / 0 0 10 20
JBR 73 53 69 51 / 0 0 10 10
TUP 74 52 67 54 / 0 0 20 50
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMRX 081729
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1229 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL...WITH JUST SOME
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT WITH LIGHT
WINDS.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
LDW
000
FXUS64 KMEG 081624
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1024 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD MORE CLOUD COVER TO SOUTHWEST ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TODAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THESE
AREAS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. UPDATED ZONES AND
GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO REFLECT CHANGES IN CLOUD COVER.
JLH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/
DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER DAY OF CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHT RIDGE OVER THE GULF...EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHEAR FOR
HURRICANE IDA...WHICH MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. OUT WEST...
AN UPPER LOW WAS MOVING INTO THE BIG BEND AREA OF TX. THIS UPPER
LOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS INTO THE OZARKS BY MONDAY
EVENING. AS THE REMNANTS OF IDA LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF...IT
WILL ENCOUNTER FASTER WESTERLIES...HELPING TO STEER IT EAST AWAY
FROM THE MIDSOUTH.
00Z GFS/ECMWF MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND TOWARD DRIER SOLUTIONS
OVER THE MIDSOUTH FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. PORTIONS OF NORTH MS
REMAIN THE EXCEPTION...AREAS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM CHARLESTON
TO TUPELO TO CORINTH. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE OR LIKELY POPS
THESE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE POTENTIAL OF STRONGER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED IDA... MAY SEE STRONGER SUBSIDENCE ALONG
IDA/S PERIPHERY...RESULTING IN LOWER RAIN CHANCES UP TOWARD
INTERSTATE 40.
FEW CHANGES MADE FROM EARLIER FORECASTS WITH RESPECT TO THE MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIODS. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE RIDGING ALOFT WITH WEAK COLD
AND DRY ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BRING
MOISTURE INTO THE MIDSOUTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... OVERSPREAD BY
FAST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
PWB
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT
TO BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5-8 KTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE
TAPERING OFF AFTER 00Z.
CCD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 75 56 71 55 / 0 0 10 20
MKL 75 49 70 51 / 0 0 10 20
JBR 73 53 69 51 / 0 0 10 10
TUP 74 52 67 54 / 0 0 20 50
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMRX 081517
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1017 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOR TODAY GENERALLY APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK...WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO DRIFT ACROSS THE
AREA. WILL MAKE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE DATABASE...MAINLY TO HOURLY
TEMPS AND DEW POINTS...TO BRING INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH CURRENT
OBS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 76 47 71 52 65 / 0 0 10 30 40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 72 43 69 50 63 / 0 0 10 30 40
OAK RIDGE, TN 73 43 69 50 63 / 0 0 10 20 40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 71 38 70 47 61 / 0 0 10 20 40
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
LDW
000
FXUS64 KOHX 081149
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
549 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.UPDATE...12Z AVIATION.
&&
.AVIATION...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH A VERY
DRY AIRMASS AND GENERALLY A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE AREA CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS (CIRRUS FIBRATUS) CAN BE EXPECTED
TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. BELIEVE
DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL BE TOO LARGE FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG
LATE IN TAF PERIOD.
BOYD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/
DISCUSSION...
SFC/LL HIGH...UL RIDGE AND DRY AIRMASS REMAIN OVER THE MID-SOUTH THIS
MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN GENERAL POSITION THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY WHILE TS IDA MOVES FURTHER NORTH IN THE GULF AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT/UL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS.
BY LATE MONDAY...IDA IS LARGELY AFFECTING GULF COAST...WHILE UL TROUGH
AND WEAK SFC BOUNDARY HAVE ADVANCED TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON AMOUNT OF PCPN THAT WILL IMPACT THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY AS COLD FRONT/UL TROUGH PASS AND ULTIMATELY PUSH BRUNT
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. AT THIS POINT...WILL CONTINUE ISOLATED-SCATTERED
PCPN SCENARIO NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS IS CURRENTLY RUNNING.
SECONDARY UL TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER A FEW
EVENING SHOWERS EAST...THE STAGE WILL AGAIN BE SET FOR DRY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT AS UL RIDGE/SFC HIGH AGAIN SETTLE OVER THE
REGION.
MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINS AGAIN EARLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...
WHICH WILL DROP DOWN OVER THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND STALL IN THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
BRING ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS BACK INTO THE PICTURE OVER THE
WEEKEND.
TEMPS AGAIN EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMALS PRETTY MUCH THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 081132
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
532 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/
DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER DAY OF CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHT RIDGE OVER THE GULF...EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHEAR FOR
HURRICANE IDA...WHICH MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. OUT WEST...
AN UPPER LOW WAS MOVING INTO THE BIG BEND AREA OF TX. THIS UPPER
LOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS INTO THE OZARKS BY MONDAY
EVENING. AS THE REMNANTS OF IDA LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF...IT
WILL ENCOUNTER FASTER WESTERLIES...HELPING TO STEER IT EAST AWAY
FROM THE MIDSOUTH.
00Z GFS/ECMWF MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND TOWARD DRIER SOLUTIONS
OVER THE MIDSOUTH FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. PORTIONS OF NORTH MS
REMAIN THE EXCEPTION...AREAS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM CHARLESTON
TO TUPELO TO CORINTH. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE OR LIKELY POPS
THESE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE POTENTIAL OF STRONGER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED IDA... MAY SEE STRONGER SUBSIDENCE ALONG
IDA/S PERIPHERY...RESULTING IN LOWER RAIN CHANCES UP TOWARD
INTERSTATE 40.
FEW CHANGES MADE FROM EARLIER FORECASTS WITH RESPECT TO THE MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIODS. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE RIDGING ALOFT WITH WEAK COLD
AND DRY ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BRING
MOISTURE INTO THE MIDSOUTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... OVERSPREAD BY
FAST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
PWB
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT
TO BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5-8 KTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE
TAPERING OFF AFTER 00Z.
CCD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 75 56 71 55 / 0 0 10 20
MKL 75 49 70 51 / 0 0 10 20
JBR 73 53 69 51 / 0 0 10 10
TUP 74 52 67 54 / 0 0 20 50
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMRX 081125
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
630 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS
WITH LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 081004
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
404 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER DAY OF CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHT RIDGE OVER THE GULF...EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHEAR FOR
HURRICANE IDA...WHICH MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. OUT WEST...
AN UPPER LOW WAS MOVING INTO THE BIG BEND AREA OF TX. THIS UPPER
LOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS INTO THE OZARKS BY MONDAY
EVENING. AS THE REMNANTS OF IDA LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF...IT
WILL ENCOUNTER FASTER WESTERLIES...HELPING TO STEER IT EAST AWAY
FROM THE MIDSOUTH.
00Z GFS/ECMWF MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND TOWARD DRIER SOLUTIONS
OVER THE MIDSOUTH FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. PORTIONS OF NORTH MS
REMAIN THE EXCEPTION...AREAS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM CHARLESTON
TO TUPELO TO CORINTH. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE OR LIKELY POPS
THESE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE POTENTIAL OF STRONGER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED IDA... MAY SEE STRONGER SUBSIDENCE ALONG
IDA/S PERIPHERY...RESULTING IN LOWER RAIN CHANCES UP TOWARD
INTERSTATE 40.
FEW CHANGES MADE FROM EARLIER FORECASTS WITH RESPECT TO THE MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIODS. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE RIDGING ALOFT WITH WEAK COLD
AND DRY ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BRING
MOISTURE INTO THE MIDSOUTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... OVERSPREAD BY
FAST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
PWB
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE (08/06Z-09/06Z)
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTH WIND FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.
JCL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 75 56 71 55 / 0 0 10 20
MKL 75 49 70 51 / 0 0 10 20
JBR 73 53 69 51 / 0 0 10 10
TUP 74 52 67 54 / 0 0 20 50
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KOHX 080849
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
249 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SFC/LL HIGH...UL RIDGE AND DRY AIRMASS REMAIN OVER THE MID-SOUTH THIS
MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN GENERAL POSITION THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY WHILE TS IDA MOVES FURTHER NORTH IN THE GULF AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT/UL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS.
BY LATE MONDAY...IDA IS LARGELY AFFECTING GULF COAST...WHILE UL TROUGH
AND WEAK SFC BOUNDARY HAVE ADVANCED TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON AMOUNT OF PCPN THAT WILL IMPACT THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY AS COLD FRONT/UL TROUGH PASS AND ULTIMATELY PUSH BRUNT
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. AT THIS POINT...WILL CONTINUE ISOLATED-SCATTERED
PCPN SCENARIO NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS IS CURRENTLY RUNNING.
SECONDARY UL TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER A FEW
EVENING SHOWERS EAST...THE STAGE WILL AGAIN BE SET FOR DRY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT AS UL RIDGE/SFC HIGH AGAIN SETTLE OVER THE
REGION.
MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINS AGAIN EARLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...
WHICH WILL DROP DOWN OVER THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND STALL IN THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
BRING ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS BACK INTO THE PICTURE OVER THE
WEEKEND.
TEMPS AGAIN EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMALS PRETTY MUCH THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 76 49 70 51 / 0 0 10 20
CLARKSVILLE 75 49 72 50 / 0 0 10 20
CROSSVILLE 74 46 70 49 / 0 0 10 30
COLUMBIA 76 49 70 52 / 0 0 10 30
LAWRENCEBURG 78 48 70 52 / 0 0 10 40
WAVERLY 75 50 71 52 / 0 0 10 20
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
07
000
FXUS64 KMRX 080730
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
229 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL. AS A RESULT...
WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...CONTINUE TO SEE MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH TRACK OF SOUTHERN SYSTEM PUSHING NORTHEASTWARD
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. SOME MODELS KEEP SYSTEM AND SCATTERED PRECIP
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...WHILE OTHERS SLIDE A PORTION OF THE PRECIP
INTO OUR AREA...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. CONFIDENCE QUITE
LOW ON DETAILS AND ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY...GENERALLY SLIGHTLY LOWERING POPS FAR NORTHWESTERN
AREAS AND SLIGHTLY INCREASING SOUTH AND EAST. SYSTEM WILL HAVE
EXITED THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ONCE
AGAIN FOR A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE REMAINS
SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH TIMING OF APPROACHING SYSTEM TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY FOR NOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 76 47 71 52 65 / 0 0 10 30 40
KNOXVILLE AIRPORT, TN 72 43 69 50 63 / 0 0 10 30 40
OAK RIDGE, TN 73 43 69 50 63 / 0 0 10 20 40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 71 38 70 47 61 / 0 0 10 20 40
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
MJB
000
FXUS64 KMRX 080530
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1230 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS
WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMRX 080527
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
649 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.AVIATION...ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE EXCELLENT FLYING
CONDITIONS AGAIN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING
ON ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 080439 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1038 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 824 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. SOUTH
WINDS ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN CHECK WITH READINGS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 60S. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS FINE SO NO
UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
ARS
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE (08/06Z-09/06Z)
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTH WIND FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.
JCL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 51 76 57 71 / 0 0 10 20
MKL 50 74 52 70 / 0 0 0 10
JBR 51 74 53 71 / 0 0 10 10
TUP 46 74 53 69 / 0 0 10 30
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 080438 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1038 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 824 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. SOUTH
WINDS ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN CHECK WITH READINGS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 60S. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS FINE SO NO
UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
ARS
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE (08/06Z-09/06Z)
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTH WIND FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.
JCL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 51 76 57 71 / 0 0 10 20
MKL 50 74 52 70 / 0 0 0 10
JBR 51 74 53 71 / 0 0 10 10
TUP 46 74 53 69 / 0 0 10 30
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KOHX 080252
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
852 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.UPDATE...IT WAS CLEAR ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS EVENING, WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING SLOWLY THROUGH THE 50S IN MOST AREAS. THE
EXCEPTION WAS IN THE NORTHWEST, WHERE A WARM TONGUE WAS OBSERVED
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST MISSOURI EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN KENTUCKY
AND NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WITH TEMPERATURE READINGS STILL IN
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S AT 02Z.
VERY SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE WEATHER TONIGHT COULD LEAD TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN LOW TEMPERATURES. AS OF THIS EVENING,
THE WARMEST READINGS WERE ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND IN THE
NORTHWEST. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, THE TEMPERATURES IN THE
NORTHWEST WERE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A LOW LEVEL WARM TONGUE.
THOSE ALONG THE PLATEAU WERE DUE TO THE INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT, AS EXHIBITED BY THE 00Z OHX SOUNDING, KEEPING THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WELL MIXED.
MODELS SUGGEST A WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT, AFTER 08Z. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A DIMINISHING WIND, WITH WINDS IN MANY AREAS
(EXCEPT AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS) BECOMING NEAR CALM. THUS, WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND SFC DEW POINTS STILL QUITE LOW, EXPECT A PRETTY GOOD
TEMPERATURE DROP DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS--POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS
7 OR 8 DEGS IN THE FINAL 3 OR 4 HRS (EXCEPT IN THE NORTHWEST,
WHERE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOWER TO RELAX AND WARM TONGUE WILL
REMAIN).
HAVE GENERALLY LOWERED OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPERATURE EXPECTATIONS, BUT
HAVE KEPT PROJECTIONS AT LEAST A FEW DEGS ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE
ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND IN THE NORTHWEST. FOR MOST OTHER
AREAS, A MAV/MET COMPROMISE SEEMS MOST REASONABLE.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
19
000
FXUS64 KMEG 080224
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
824 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. SOUTH
WINDS ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN CHECK WITH READINGS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 60S. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS FINE SO NO
UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
ARS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER OVER THE MID SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S SUNDAY AFTERNOON UNDER SUNNY SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE AS WELL THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EVIDENT OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME...TROPICAL STORM IDA CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE AND
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA AND SHOULD SOON
REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS LATER THIS EVENING OR SUNDAY MORNING. AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST IT SHOULD HELP TO ERODE THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE AND STEER IDA
NORTHWARD. IDA SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AGAIN ONCE REACHING THE
GULF OF MEXICO AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE OVER
THE SYSTEM. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO TRANSITION
EXTRATROPICAL AFTER FURTHER INTERACTION WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
AS IT NEARS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST LATER MONDAY NIGHT. DEEP
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE DRAWN NORTHWARD
INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH BY LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL
SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST SHUNTS THE BETTER MOISTURE EASTWARD.
HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
GUSTY NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP LATER MONDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BETWEEN IDA AND STRONGER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES.
THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS OF IDA AND THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT
SHOULD SWEEP EAST OF THE MID SOUTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTH AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THIS SURFACE
HIGH SHOULD MOVE EAST BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN TO
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH BY NEXT WEEKEND BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE END OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
JLH
AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE (08/00Z-09/00Z)
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTH WIND FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.
JCL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 51 76 57 71 / 0 0 10 20
MKL 50 74 52 70 / 0 0 0 10
JBR 51 74 53 71 / 0 0 10 10
TUP 46 74 53 69 / 0 0 10 30
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMRX 080149
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
850 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH A WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AND MIDWEST. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS PRODUCING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. WITH
A VERY DRY AIR MASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...FROST SHOULD NOT BE TOO
WIDESPREAD TOWARDS SUNRISE.
OVERALL...CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK AND WILL NOT PLAN
TO UPDATE THIS EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 40 76 45 71 52 / 0 0 0 10 40
KNOXVILLE AIRPORT, TN 39 72 40 69 49 / 0 0 0 10 30
OAK RIDGE, TN 39 73 40 69 49 / 0 0 0 10 30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 34 71 33 69 44 / 0 0 0 10 20
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DMG
000
FXUS64 KOHX 080018
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
618 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...LOOK FOR CLR SKIES AND GOOD VSBY AT BNA/CSV THE NEXT
24 HRS. WINDS WILL REMAIN 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH 00Z MON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REASONING WILL BE BASED ON A LEAN TOWARD A EURO MODEL
SOLUTION FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED.
CURRENTLY...SFC RIDGING CONTINUING ITS HOLD FROM THE DEEP SOUTH
TO JUST OFF THE COAST OF NC. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STILL FIRMLY IN
PLACE. TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN
THE 30S...WITH WINDS GENERALLY SW 10 TO 15 MPH...UNDER SUNNY SKIES.
FORECAST QUANDARIES...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY EWD THRU 12Z MON...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUANCE IN
SWLY WAA PATTERN. LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL ALSO CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST 00Z MON...BUT BEGIN TO MOVE EWD
AS LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGHING MOVES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. EXPECT
A CONTINUANCE OF THE CURRENT DRY AIRMASS THRU 00Z MON... WITH LOW
TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO REGION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH NORTHERN EXTENT OF MOISTURE AS TS IDA MOVES INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO.
BY MON EARLY EVENING...CENTER OF TS IDA EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING
THE N GULF...WHILE A COLD FRONT/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE PLAINS. SFC/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HIGHS FINALLY MOVE OUT OF THE
MID STATE MON NIGHT AS IDA MOVES S OF THE LA MS DELTA REGION AND
AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACH THE MID STATE.
AT THIS POINT...DEEPER MOISTURE HAS RETURN TO THE SE U.S. BUT IS
MUCH MORE CONCENTRATED TO THE S/E. IDA MEANDERS IN THE N GULF ON
TUE/WED AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIP BY...WITH
SFC/LOW LEVEL HIGHS AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING BEHIND TUE
NIGHT. ULTIMATELY...MAIN BRUNT OF IDA SEEMINGLY NEVER MAKES IT FAR
ENOUGH N TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON THE CWA OTHER THAN ISO-SCT
SHWRS MON NIGHT/TUE...AND POSSIBLY E AND S EARLY TUE EVENING WHILE
BOUNDARY/UPPER RIDGE PUSH DEEP MOISTURE OUT OF THE PICTURE.
SFC/LOW LEVEL HIGHS AND UPPER RIDGING MOVE FIRMLY BACK INTO THE
PICTURE WED AND MAINTAIN THRU EARLY FRI. LATER FRI...UPPER RIDGE/
LOW LEVEL HIGHS MOVE TO THE E...ALLOWING UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SLIDE ACROSS LATE...POSSIBLY RETURNING ISO
SHWRS TO THE REGION FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
AS FOR TEMPS...WAA PATTERN SET UP LAST NIGHT...EARLIER THAN
ANTICIPATED...AND KEPT LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN GFS AND NAM
MOS GUIDANCE AND ACTUAL LOW TEMPS VALUES OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. NAM
MOS GUIDANCE PICKING UP ON WAA SCENARIO FOR TONIGHT...BUT WILL STILL
RAISE LOW VALUES A FEW DEGREES FROM GUIDANCE. WILL LEAN CLOSE TO A
GFS MOS/NAM MOS SOLUTION THRU 12Z TUE AS VALUES SEEM REPRESENTATIVE
OF DEVELOPING WX SITUATION. FOR REST OF FORECAST PERIOD...WILL
GENERALLY LEAN TOWARD MEX MOS VALUES...CONTINUING THE TREND OF
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
ROSE
000
FXUS64 KMRX 072349
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
649 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.AVIATION...ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE EXCELLENT FLYING
CONDITIONS AGAIN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING
ON ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 072326 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
526 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER OVER THE MID SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S SUNDAY AFTERNOON UNDER SUNNY SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE AS WELL THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EVIDENT OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME...TROPICAL STORM IDA CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE AND
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA AND SHOULD SOON
REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS LATER THIS EVENING OR SUNDAY MORNING. AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST IT SHOULD HELP TO ERODE THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE AND STEER IDA
NORTHWARD. IDA SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AGAIN ONCE REACHING THE
GULF OF MEXICO AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE OVER
THE SYSTEM. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO TRANSITION
EXTRATROPICAL AFTER FURTHER INTERACTION WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
AS IT NEARS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST LATER MONDAY NIGHT. DEEP
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE DRAWN NORTHWARD
INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH BY LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL
SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST SHUNTS THE BETTER MOISTURE EASTWARD.
HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
GUSTY NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP LATER MONDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BETWEEN IDA AND STRONGER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES.
THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS OF IDA AND THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT
SHOULD SWEEP EAST OF THE MID SOUTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTH AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THIS SURFACE
HIGH SHOULD MOVE EAST BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN TO
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH BY NEXT WEEKEND BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE END OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
JLH
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE (08/00Z-09/00Z)
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTH WIND FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.
JCL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 51 76 57 71 / 0 0 10 20
MKL 50 74 52 70 / 0 0 0 10
JBR 51 74 53 71 / 0 0 10 10
TUP 46 74 53 69 / 0 0 10 30
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KOHX 072124
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
324 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REASONING WILL BE BASED ON A LEAN TOWARD A EURO MODEL
SOLUTION FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED.
CURRENTLY...SFC RIDGING CONTINUING ITS HOLD FROM THE DEEP SOUTH
TO JUST OFF THE COAST OF NC. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STILL FIRMLY IN
PLACE. TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN
THE 30S...WITH WINDS GENERALLY SW 10 TO 15 MPH...UNDER SUNNY SKIES.
FORECAST QUANDARIES...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY EWD THRU 12Z MON...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUANCE IN
SWLY WAA PATTERN. LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL ALSO CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST 00Z MON...BUT BEGIN TO MOVE EWD
AS LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGHING MOVES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. EXPECT
A CONTINUANCE OF THE CURRENT DRY AIRMASS THRU 00Z MON... WITH LOW
TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO REGION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH NORTHERN EXTENT OF MOISTURE AS TS IDA MOVES INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO.
BY MON EARLY EVENING...CENTER OF TS IDA EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING
THE N GULF...WHILE A COLD FRONT/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE PLAINS. SFC/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HIGHS FINALLY MOVE OUT OF THE
MID STATE MON NIGHT AS IDA MOVES S OF THE LA MS DELTA REGION AND
AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACH THE MID STATE.
AT THIS POINT...DEEPER MOISTURE HAS RETURN TO THE SE U.S. BUT IS
MUCH MORE CONCENTRATED TO THE S/E. IDA MEANDERS IN THE N GULF ON
TUE/WED AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIP BY...WITH
SFC/LOW LEVEL HIGHS AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING BEHIND TUE
NIGHT. ULTIMATELY...MAIN BRUNT OF IDA SEEMINGLY NEVER MAKES IT FAR
ENOUGH N TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON THE CWA OTHER THAN ISO-SCT
SHWRS MON NIGHT/TUE...AND POSSIBLY E AND S EARLY TUE EVENING WHILE
BOUNDARY/UPPER RIDGE PUSH DEEP MOISTURE OUT OF THE PICTURE.
SFC/LOW LEVEL HIGHS AND UPPER RIDGING MOVE FIRMLY BACK INTO THE
PICTURE WED AND MAINTAIN THRU EARLY FRI. LATER FRI...UPPER RIDGE/
LOW LEVEL HIGHS MOVE TO THE E...ALLOWING UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SLIDE ACROSS LATE...POSSIBLY RETURNING ISO
SHWRS TO THE REGION FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
AS FOR TEMPS...WAA PATTERN SET UP LAST NIGHT...EARLIER THAN
ANTICIPATED...AND KEPT LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN GFS AND NAM
MOS GUIDANCE AND ACTUAL LOW TEMPS VALUES OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. NAM
MOS GUIDANCE PICKING UP ON WAA SCENARIO FOR TONIGHT...BUT WILL STILL
RAISE LOW VALUES A FEW DEGREES FROM GUIDANCE. WILL LEAN CLOSE TO A
GFS MOS/NAM MOS SOLUTION THRU 12Z TUE AS VALUES SEEM REPRESENTATIVE
OF DEVELOPING WX SITUATION. FOR REST OF FORECAST PERIOD...WILL
GENERALLY LEAN TOWARD MEX MOS VALUES...CONTINUING THE TREND OF
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 49 74 51 72 / 0 0 0 10
CLARKSVILLE 50 75 51 72 / 0 0 0 10
CROSSVILLE 44 72 46 70 / 0 0 0 10
COLUMBIA 48 74 51 72 / 0 0 0 10
LAWRENCEBURG 47 75 49 71 / 0 0 0 10
WAVERLY 50 75 52 71 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TNZ005>011-
023>034-056>066-075-078-093>095.
&&
$$
31/JBW
000
FXUS64 KMEG 072118
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
318 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER OVER THE MID SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S SUNDAY AFTERNOON UNDER SUNNY SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTY ABOVE AVERAGE AS WELL THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EVIDENT OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME...TROPICAL STORM IDA CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE AND
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA AND SHOULD SOON
REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS LATER THIS EVENING OR SUNDAY MORNING. AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST IT SHOULD HELP TO ERODE THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE AND STEER IDA
NORTHWARD. IDA SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AGAIN ONCE REACHING THE
GULF OF MEXICO AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE OVER
THE SYSTEM. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO TRANSITION
EXTRATROPICAL AFTER FURTHER INTERACTION WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
AS IT NEARS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST LATER MONDAY NIGHT. DEEP
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE DRAWN NORTHWARD
INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH BY LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL
SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST SHUNTS THE BETTER MOISTURE EASTWARD.
HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
GUSTY NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP LATER MONDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BETWEEN IDA AND STRONGER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES.
THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS OF IDA AND THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT
SHOULD SWEEP EAST OF THE MID SOUTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTH AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THIS SURFACE
HIGH SHOULD MOVE EAST BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN TO
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH BY NEXT WEEKEND BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE END OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
JLH
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON NEAR 25 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN OVERNIGHT CAUSING WINDS TO SUBSIDE. PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN FOR TOMORROW...THUS WIND GUSTS WILL BE
MINIMAL AFTER 15Z SUNDAY.
AC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 51 76 57 71 / 0 0 10 20
MKL 50 74 52 70 / 0 0 0 10
JBR 51 74 53 71 / 0 0 10 10
TUP 46 74 53 69 / 0 0 10 30
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMRX 071934
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
234 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE AREA...AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY. SHOULD HAVE A
CLEAR NIGHT TONIGHT...WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN ON
SUNDAY. WILL MENTION PATCHY FROST IN AREAS WHERE FREEZE PROGRAM IS
STILL IN EFFECT...BUT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE FROST WILL BE WIDESPREAD
SO NO FROST ADVISORY. WILL GENERALLY STAY CLOSE TO MAV TEMPS FOR THE
SHORT TERM.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT VARIABLE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH RESPECT TO
TRACK OF SYSTEM THAT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. MODELS HAD TRENDED TO A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...MOSTLY
SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BEFORE THE LATEST RUNS HAVE AGAIN
SUGGESTED A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...HAVE NOT MADE
ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO PRECEDING GRIDS/FORECAST. BALANCE OF LONG TERM
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING
BY LATE IN THE LONG TERM. HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
NEXT SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS EVENT. FOR TEMPS...GENERALLY DID NOT
DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MAV/MEX GUIDANCE VALUES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 40 76 45 71 52 / 0 0 0 10 40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 39 72 40 69 49 / 0 0 0 10 30
OAK RIDGE, TN 39 73 40 69 49 / 0 0 0 10 30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 34 71 33 69 44 / 0 0 0 10 20
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
LDW/LCM
000
FXUS64 KOHX 071819
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1219 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNING TO BE POSTED ACR MID TN W/SUSTAINED WINDS 15-20
WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN SPOTS. R/H IS BORDERLINE AT 30 PERCENT BUT
COULD MIX DOWN LOWER.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1151 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
UPDATE...
FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
VFR THROUGHOUT. GRAD WINDS PLUS S/B HEATING CAUSED GUSTS UP TO 25
MPH THIS MORNING. PRES GRAD WL WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT LIGHT
SOUTH FLOW TNGT WITH SOME CIRRUS SUNDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
UPDATE...
WITH TEMPS IN SOME LOCATIONS ALREADY AROUND 70...WILL RAISE
HIGHS FOR TODAY ACROSS MID STATE A COUPLE OF DEGREES. WITH
WINDS GUSTING TO AS MUCH AS 25 MPH...WILL UPDATE WINDS TO
ADDRESS THIS SITUATION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 933 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH INTO NC WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WELL ESTABLISHED. KOHX 12Z SOUNDING SHOWING DRY
CONDITIONS SFC AND ALOFT. SATELLITE/SFC OBS DEPICTING SUNNY SKIES.
TEMPS ARE ALREADY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S DUE TO INCREASED
SWLY FLOW USHERING IN A WARMER AIR MASS. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS
21 MPH FROM THE SW. CURRENT GRIDDED TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER
THAN CURRENT VALUES AND EXPECT WAA PATTERN TO CONTINUE THRU THE
DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE E...BUT WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING MAINTAINING ITS HOLD ACROSS THE MID STATE
TODAY...AND A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...CLOUD COVER POTENTIAL MINIMAL
AT BEST.
THUS...WILL RAISE HIGHS TODAY A FEW DEGREES INTO THE MID 70S WEST OF
PLATEAU...AROUND 70 NORTHERN PLATEAU...AND LOWER 70S SOUTHERN PLATEAU
REGIONS. WILL UPDATE WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR GUSTS APPROACHING 20 MPH
CURRENTLY IN SOME LOCATIONS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION CYCLE
AVIATION...
LOOK FOR GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH BNA/CSV THROUGH 12Z
SUN. SURFACE WINDS AT 11Z THIS MORNING ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND
170/05KT AT BNA AND 200/05KTS AT CSV BUT WINDS ARE STRONGER IN
BOUNDARY LAYER AND ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 35 KTS FROM ABOUT 190
DEGS. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE DURING
DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS
THE AREA AND THIS WILL ALSO ACT TO INCREASE SURFACE SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS. BELIEVE NON-CONVECTIVE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR THROUGH
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTIONING FROM
12Z TO 15Z THIS MORNING IN TAFS. SHEAR THROUGH BOUNDARY SHOULD
IMPROVE ONCE MIXING GETS ESTABLISHED. LOOK FOR SURFACE WINDS GUSTS
DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS ON THE ORDER OF 18 TO 20 KNOTS AT TAF SITES.
AIR MASS LOOKS TOO DRY FOR ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE CYCLE.
BOYD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC/LL HIGHS CENTERED NEAR THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ...WITH UL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF STATES.
THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN IN GENERALLY VICINITY THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY...WITH UL HIGHS STRENGTHENING SOME OVER THE MID-SOUTH.
THIS WILL CONTINUE CURRENT STRING OF DRY WEATHER RUNNING THROUGH
THAT TIME.
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...CENTER OF TD IDA EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN GULF
WHILE A COLD FRONT/UL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. SFC/LL HIGHS
BREAKDOWN MONDAY NIGHT AS IDA MOVES LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AND UL
TROUGH/WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROP INTO THE REGION. AT THIS
POINT...DEEPER MOISTURE HAS RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST US BUT IS MUCH
MORE CONCENTRATED TO THE SOUTH/EAST. IDA MEANDERS IN THE NORTHERN
GULF ON TUESDAY AS COLD FRONT AND UL TROUGH AXIS SLIP BY...WITH
SFC/LL HIGHS AND UL RIDGE BUILDING BEHIND TUESDAY NIGHT.
ULTIMATELY...MAIN BRUNT OF IDA SEEMINGLY NEVER MAKES IT FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON THE CWA OTHER THAN ISOLATED-SCATTERED
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLY EAST AND SOUTH EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING WHILE BOUNDARY / UPPER RIDGE PUSH DEEP MOISTURE
OUT OF THE PICTURE.
SFC/LL HIGHS AND UPPER RIDGING MOVE FIRMLY BACK INTO THE PICTURE
WEDNESDAY AND MAINTAIN THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. LATER FRIDAY...UPPER
RIDGE / LL HIGHS BREAKDOWN ALLOWING UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO SLIDE ACROSS LATE...POSSIBLY RETURNING ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 44 74 51 71 / 0 0 0 10
CLARKSVILLE 45 75 51 71 / 0 0 0 10
CROSSVILLE 39 74 45 70 / 0 0 0 10
COLUMBIA 43 74 51 71 / 0 0 0 10
LAWRENCEBURG 42 74 49 70 / 0 0 0 10
WAVERLY 45 74 52 70 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
04
000
FXUS64 KOHX 071751
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1151 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.UPDATE...
FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGHOUT. GRAD WINDS PLUS S/B HEATING CAUSED GUSTS UP TO 25
MPH THIS MORNING. PRES GRAD WL WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT LIGHT
SOUTH FLOW TNGT WITH SOME CIRRUS SUNDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
UPDATE...
WITH TEMPS IN SOME LOCATIONS ALREADY AROUND 70...WILL RAISE
HIGHS FOR TODAY ACROSS MID STATE A COUPLE OF DEGREES. WITH
WINDS GUSTING TO AS MUCH AS 25 MPH...WILL UPDATE WINDS TO
ADDRESS THIS SITUATION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 933 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH INTO NC WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WELL ESTABLISHED. KOHX 12Z SOUNDING SHOWING DRY
CONDITIONS SFC AND ALOFT. SATELLITE/SFC OBS DEPICTING SUNNY SKIES.
TEMPS ARE ALREADY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S DUE TO INCREASED
SWLY FLOW USHERING IN A WARMER AIR MASS. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS
21 MPH FROM THE SW. CURRENT GRIDDED TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER
THAN CURRENT VALUES AND EXPECT WAA PATTERN TO CONTINUE THRU THE
DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE E...BUT WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING MAINTAINING ITS HOLD ACROSS THE MID STATE
TODAY...AND A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...CLOUD COVER POTENTIAL MINIMAL
AT BEST.
THUS...WILL RAISE HIGHS TODAY A FEW DEGREES INTO THE MID 70S WEST OF
PLATEAU...AROUND 70 NORTHERN PLATEAU...AND LOWER 70S SOUTHERN PLATEAU
REGIONS. WILL UPDATE WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR GUSTS APPROACHING 20 MPH
CURRENTLY IN SOME LOCATIONS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION CYCLE
AVIATION...
LOOK FOR GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH BNA/CSV THROUGH 12Z
SUN. SURFACE WINDS AT 11Z THIS MORNING ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND
170/05KT AT BNA AND 200/05KTS AT CSV BUT WINDS ARE STRONGER IN
BOUNDARY LAYER AND ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 35 KTS FROM ABOUT 190
DEGS. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE DURING
DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS
THE AREA AND THIS WILL ALSO ACT TO INCREASE SURFACE SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS. BELIEVE NON-CONVECTIVE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR THROUGH
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTIONING FROM
12Z TO 15Z THIS MORNING IN TAFS. SHEAR THROUGH BOUNDARY SHOULD
IMPROVE ONCE MIXING GETS ESTABLISHED. LOOK FOR SURFACE WINDS GUSTS
DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS ON THE ORDER OF 18 TO 20 KNOTS AT TAF SITES.
AIR MASS LOOKS TOO DRY FOR ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE CYCLE.
BOYD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC/LL HIGHS CENTERED NEAR THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ...WITH UL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF STATES.
THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN IN GENERALLY VICINITY THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY...WITH UL HIGHS STRENGTHENING SOME OVER THE MID-SOUTH.
THIS WILL CONTINUE CURRENT STRING OF DRY WEATHER RUNNING THROUGH
THAT TIME.
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...CENTER OF TD IDA EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN GULF
WHILE A COLD FRONT/UL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. SFC/LL HIGHS
BREAKDOWN MONDAY NIGHT AS IDA MOVES LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AND UL
TROUGH/WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROP INTO THE REGION. AT THIS
POINT...DEEPER MOISTURE HAS RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST US BUT IS MUCH
MORE CONCENTRATED TO THE SOUTH/EAST. IDA MEANDERS IN THE NORTHERN
GULF ON TUESDAY AS COLD FRONT AND UL TROUGH AXIS SLIP BY...WITH
SFC/LL HIGHS AND UL RIDGE BUILDING BEHIND TUESDAY NIGHT.
ULTIMATELY...MAIN BRUNT OF IDA SEEMINGLY NEVER MAKES IT FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON THE CWA OTHER THAN ISOLATED-SCATTERED
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLY EAST AND SOUTH EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING WHILE BOUNDARY / UPPER RIDGE PUSH DEEP MOISTURE
OUT OF THE PICTURE.
SFC/LL HIGHS AND UPPER RIDGING MOVE FIRMLY BACK INTO THE PICTURE
WEDNESDAY AND MAINTAIN THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. LATER FRIDAY...UPPER
RIDGE / LL HIGHS BREAKDOWN ALLOWING UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO SLIDE ACROSS LATE...POSSIBLY RETURNING ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
04
000
FXUS64 KMRX 071728
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1228 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH DRY AIR OVER
THE AREA. FOG CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT
TRI...BUT LOOKS UNLIKELY ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. WILL GO WITH
VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
LDW
000
FXUS64 KMEG 071715
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1115 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1050 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CLEAR SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE
MID SOUTH TODAY. THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND NO UPDATES ARE
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
JLH
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON NEAR 25 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN OVERNIGHT CAUSING WINDS TO SUBSIDE. PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN FOR TOMORROW...THUS WIND GUSTS WILL BE
MINIMAL AFTER 15Z SUNDAY.
AC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 74 51 76 56 / 0 0 0 10
MKL 74 43 75 50 / 0 0 0 0
JBR 72 49 72 52 / 0 0 0 0
TUP 74 44 73 53 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KOHX 071714 AAD
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1114 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.UPDATE...
WITH TEMPS IN SOME LOCATIONS ALREADY AROUND 70...WILL RAISE
HIGHS FOR TODAY ACROSS MID STATE A COUPLE OF DEGREES. WITH
WINDS GUSTING TO AS MUCH AS 25 MPH...WILL UPDATE WINDS TO
ADDRESS THIS SITUATION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 933 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH INTO NC WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WELL ESTABLISHED. KOHX 12Z SOUNDING SHOWING DRY
CONDITIONS SFC AND ALOFT. SATELLITE/SFC OBS DEPICTING SUNNY SKIES.
TEMPS ARE ALREADY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S DUE TO INCREASED
SWLY FLOW USHERING IN A WARMER AIR MASS. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS
21 MPH FROM THE SW. CURRENT GRIDDED TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER
THAN CURRENT VALUES AND EXPECT WAA PATTERN TO CONTINUE THRU THE
DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE E...BUT WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING MAINTAINING ITS HOLD ACROSS THE MID STATE
TODAY...AND A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...CLOUD COVER POTENTIAL MINIMAL
AT BEST.
THUS...WILL RAISE HIGHS TODAY A FEW DEGREES INTO THE MID 70S WEST OF
PLATEAU...AROUND 70 NORTHERN PLATEAU...AND LOWER 70S SOUTHERN PLATEAU
REGIONS. WILL UPDATE WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR GUSTS APPROACHING 20 MPH
CURRENTLY IN SOME LOCATIONS.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION CYCLE
.AVIATION...
LOOK FOR GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH BNA/CSV THROUGH 12Z
SUN. SURFACE WINDS AT 11Z THIS MORNING ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND
170/05KT AT BNA AND 200/05KTS AT CSV BUT WINDS ARE STRONGER IN
BOUNDARY LAYER AND ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 35 KTS FROM ABOUT 190
DEGS. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE DURING
DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS
THE AREA AND THIS WILL ALSO ACT TO INCREASE SURFACE SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS. BELIEVE NON-CONVECTIVE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR THROUGH
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTIONING FROM
12Z TO 15Z THIS MORNING IN TAFS. SHEAR THROUGH BOUNDARY SHOULD
IMPROVE ONCE MIXING GETS ESTABLISHED. LOOK FOR SURFACE WINDS GUSTS
DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS ON THE ORDER OF 18 TO 20 KNOTS AT TAF SITES.
AIR MASS LOOKS TOO DRY FOR ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE CYCLE.
BOYD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC/LL HIGHS CENTERED NEAR THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ...WITH UL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF STATES.
THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN IN GENERALLY VICINITY THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY...WITH UL HIGHS STRENGTHENING SOME OVER THE MID-SOUTH.
THIS WILL CONTINUE CURRENT STRING OF DRY WEATHER RUNNING THROUGH
THAT TIME.
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...CENTER OF TD IDA EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN GULF
WHILE A COLD FRONT/UL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. SFC/LL HIGHS
BREAKDOWN MONDAY NIGHT AS IDA MOVES LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AND UL
TROUGH/WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROP INTO THE REGION. AT THIS
POINT...DEEPER MOISTURE HAS RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST US BUT IS MUCH
MORE CONCENTRATED TO THE SOUTH/EAST. IDA MEANDERS IN THE NORTHERN
GULF ON TUESDAY AS COLD FRONT AND UL TROUGH AXIS SLIP BY...WITH
SFC/LL HIGHS AND UL RIDGE BUILDING BEHIND TUESDAY NIGHT.
ULTIMATELY...MAIN BRUNT OF IDA SEEMINGLY NEVER MAKES IT FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON THE CWA OTHER THAN ISOLATED-SCATTERED
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLY EAST AND SOUTH EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING WHILE BOUNDARY / UPPER RIDGE PUSH DEEP MOISTURE
OUT OF THE PICTURE.
SFC/LL HIGHS AND UPPER RIDGING MOVE FIRMLY BACK INTO THE PICTURE
WEDNESDAY AND MAINTAIN THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. LATER FRIDAY...UPPER
RIDGE / LL HIGHS BREAKDOWN ALLOWING UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO SLIDE ACROSS LATE...POSSIBLY RETURNING ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31/JBW
000
FXUS64 KMEG 071650
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1050 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CLEAR SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE
MID SOUTH TODAY. THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND NO UPDATES ARE
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
JLH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...
FAIR AND MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...COURTESY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS UPPER RIDGE
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE CAROLINAS BY MONDAY MORNING...AS AN OPEN
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO TX. SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL BRING MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM
IDA INTO MS/AL. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A
DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE MIDSOUTH MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... TAKING A
MORE EASTERLY TRACK OF IDA/S REMNANT SURFACE LOW INTO AL/GA. HAVE
LIKEWISE TRENDED POPS DOWNWARD EARLY IN THE WORKWEEK.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM TX...ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...
INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. AMPLE MIDWEEK SUNSHINE WILL BE
OFFSET BY WEAK COLD ADVECTION.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY
EVENING...LEAVING FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
FLOW INTO THE MIDSOUTH. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK...
AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. GIVEN THE INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AND CLOUDS... LATE WEEK HIGH TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR
NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY WARMER THAN NORMAL NIGHTTIME LOWS.
PWB
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST TENNESSEE THIS MORNING
BEFORE DISSIPATING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE TAF CYCLE AT ALL SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY AND BECOME GUSTY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN
RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST AND A DEVELOPING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
CCD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 74 51 76 56 / 0 0 0 10
MKL 74 43 75 50 / 0 0 0 0
JBR 72 49 72 52 / 0 0 0 0
TUP 74 44 73 53 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KOHX 071536 AAC
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED FOR SPELLING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
933 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH INTO NC WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WELL ESTABLISHED. KOHX 12Z SOUNDING SHOWING DRY
CONDITIONS SFC AND ALOFT. SATELLITE/SFC OBS DEPICTING SUNNY SKIES.
TEMPS ARE ALREADY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S DUE TO INCREASED
SWLY FLOW USHERING IN A WARMER AIR MASS. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS
21 MPH FROM THE SW. CURRENT GRIDDED TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER
THAN CURRENT VALUES AND EXPECT WAA PATTERN TO CONTINUE THRU THE
DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE E...BUT WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING MAINTAINING ITS HOLD ACROSS THE MID STATE
TODAY...AND A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...CLOUD COVER POTENTIAL MINIMAL
AT BEST.
THUS...WILL RAISE HIGHS TODAY A FEW DEGREES INTO THE MID 70S WEST OF
PLATEAU...AROUND 70 NORTHERN PLATEAU...AND LOWER 70S SOUTHERN PLATEAU
REGIONS. WILL UPDATE WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR GUSTS APPROACHING 20 MPH
CURRENTLY IN SOME LOCATIONS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION CYCLE
.AVIATION...
LOOK FOR GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH BNA/CSV THROUGH 12Z
SUN. SURFACE WINDS AT 11Z THIS MORNING ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND
170/05KT AT BNA AND 200/05KTS AT CSV BUT WINDS ARE STRONGER IN
BOUNDARY LAYER AND ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 35 KTS FROM ABOUT 190
DEGS. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE DURING
DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS
THE AREA AND THIS WILL ALSO ACT TO INCREASE SURFACE SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS. BELIEVE NON-CONVECTIVE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR THROUGH
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTIONING FROM
12Z TO 15Z THIS MORNING IN TAFS. SHEAR THROUGH BOUNDARY SHOULD
IMPROVE ONCE MIXING GETS ESTABLISHED. LOOK FOR SURFACE WINDS GUSTS
DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS ON THE ORDER OF 18 TO 20 KNOTS AT TAF SITES.
AIR MASS LOOKS TOO DRY FOR ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE CYCLE.
BOYD
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC/LL HIGHS CENTERED NEAR THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ...WITH UL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF STATES.
THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN IN GENERALLY VICINITY THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY...WITH UL HIGHS STRENGTHENING SOME OVER THE MID-SOUTH.
THIS WILL CONTINUE CURRENT STRING OF DRY WEATHER RUNNING THROUGH
THAT TIME.
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...CENTER OF TD IDA EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN GULF
WHILE A COLD FRONT/UL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. SFC/LL HIGHS
BREAKDOWN MONDAY NIGHT AS IDA MOVES LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AND UL
TROUGH/WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROP INTO THE REGION. AT THIS
POINT...DEEPER MOISTURE HAS RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST US BUT IS MUCH
MORE CONCENTRATED TO THE SOUTH/EAST. IDA MEANDERS IN THE NORTHERN
GULF ON TUESDAY AS COLD FRONT AND UL TROUGH AXIS SLIP BY...WITH
SFC/LL HIGHS AND UL RIDGE BUILDING BEHIND TUESDAY NIGHT.
ULTIMATELY...MAIN BRUNT OF IDA SEEMINGLY NEVER MAKES IT FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON THE CWA OTHER THAN ISOLATED-SCATTERED
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLY EAST AND SOUTH EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING WHILE BOUNDARY / UPPER RIDGE PUSH DEEP MOISTURE
OUT OF THE PICTURE.
SFC/LL HIGHS AND UPPER RIDGING MOVE FIRMLY BACK INTO THE PICTURE
WEDNESDAY AND MAINTAIN THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. LATER FRIDAY...UPPER
RIDGE / LL HIGHS BREAKDOWN ALLOWING UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO SLIDE ACROSS LATE...POSSIBLY RETURNING ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31/JBW
000
FXUS64 KOHX 071533 AAC
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
933 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH INTO NC WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WELL ESTABLISHED. KOHX 12Z SOUNDING SHOWING DRY
CONDITIONS SFC AND ALOFT. SATELLITE/SFC OBS DEPICTING SUNNY SKIES.
TEMPS ARE ALREADY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S DUE TO INCREASED
SWLY FLOW USHERING IN A WARMER AIR MASS. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS
21 MPH FROM THE SW. CURRENT GRIDDED TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER
THAN CURRENT VALUES AND EXPECT WAA PATTERN TO CONTINUE THRU THE
DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE E...BUT WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING MAINTAINING ITS HOLD ACROSS THE MID STATE
TODAY...AND A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...CLOUD COVER POTENTIAL MINIMAL
AT BEST.
THUS...WILL RAISE HIGHS TODAY A FEW DEGREES INTO THE MID 70S WEST OF
PLATEAU...AROUND 70 NORTHERN PLATEUA...AND LOWER 70S SOUTHERN PLATEAU
REGIONS. WILL UPDATE WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR GUSTS APPROACHING 20 MPH
CURRENTLY IN SOME LOCATIONS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION CYCLE
.AVIATION...
LOOK FOR GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH BNA/CSV THROUGH 12Z
SUN. SURFACE WINDS AT 11Z THIS MORNING ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND
170/05KT AT BNA AND 200/05KTS AT CSV BUT WINDS ARE STRONGER IN
BOUNDARY LAYER AND ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 35 KTS FROM ABOUT 190
DEGS. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE DURING
DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS
THE AREA AND THIS WILL ALSO ACT TO INCREASE SURFACE SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS. BELIEVE NON-CONVECTIVE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR THROUGH
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTIONING FROM
12Z TO 15Z THIS MORNING IN TAFS. SHEAR THROUGH BOUNDARY SHOULD
IMPROVE ONCE MIXING GETS ESTABLISHED. LOOK FOR SURFACE WINDS GUSTS
DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS ON THE ORDER OF 18 TO 20 KNOTS AT TAF SITES.
AIR MASS LOOKS TOO DRY FOR ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE CYCLE.
BOYD
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC/LL HIGHS CENTERED NEAR THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ...WITH UL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF STATES.
THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN IN GENERALLY VICINITY THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY...WITH UL HIGHS STRENGTHENING SOME OVER THE MID-SOUTH.
THIS WILL CONTINUE CURRENT STRING OF DRY WEATHER RUNNING THROUGH
THAT TIME.
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...CENTER OF TD IDA EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN GULF
WHILE A COLD FRONT/UL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. SFC/LL HIGHS
BREAKDOWN MONDAY NIGHT AS IDA MOVES LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AND UL
TROUGH/WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROP INTO THE REGION. AT THIS
POINT...DEEPER MOISTURE HAS RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST US BUT IS MUCH
MORE CONCENTRATED TO THE SOUTH/EAST. IDA MEANDERS IN THE NORTHERN
GULF ON TUESDAY AS COLD FRONT AND UL TROUGH AXIS SLIP BY...WITH
SFC/LL HIGHS AND UL RIDGE BUILDING BEHIND TUESDAY NIGHT.
ULTIMATELY...MAIN BRUNT OF IDA SEEMINGLY NEVER MAKES IT FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON THE CWA OTHER THAN ISOLATED-SCATTERED
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLY EAST AND SOUTH EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING WHILE BOUNDARY / UPPER RIDGE PUSH DEEP MOISTURE
OUT OF THE PICTURE.
SFC/LL HIGHS AND UPPER RIDGING MOVE FIRMLY BACK INTO THE PICTURE
WEDNESDAY AND MAINTAIN THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. LATER FRIDAY...UPPER
RIDGE / LL HIGHS BREAKDOWN ALLOWING UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO SLIDE ACROSS LATE...POSSIBLY RETURNING ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31/JBW
000
FXUS64 KMRX 071522
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1022 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOR TODAY GENERALLY APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.
WILL ONLY MAKE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE DATABASE...MAINLY TO HOURLY
TEMPS AND DEW POINTS...TO BETTER LINE UP WITH CURRENT OBS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 71 40 74 46 71 / 0 0 0 0 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 67 41 71 42 70 / 0 0 0 0 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 68 41 72 42 70 / 0 0 0 0 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 66 35 70 38 68 / 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
LDW
000
FXUS64 KOHX 071142
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
542 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION CYCLE
&&
.AVIATION...
LOOK FOR GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH BNA/CSV THROUGH 12Z
SUN. SURFACE WINDS AT 11Z THIS MORNING ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND
170/05KT AT BNA AND 200/05KTS AT CSV BUT WINDS ARE STRONGER IN
BOUNDARY LAYER AND ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 35 KTS FROM ABOUT 190
DEGS. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE DURING
DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS
THE AREA AND THIS WILL ALSO ACT TO INCREASE SURFACE SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS. BELIEVE NON-CONVECTIVE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR THROUGH
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTIONING FROM
12Z TO 15Z THIS MORNING IN TAFS. SHEAR THROUGH BOUNDARY SHOULD
IMPROVE ONCE MIXING GETS ESTABLISHED. LOOK FOR SURFACE WINDS GUSTS
DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS ON THE ORDER OF 18 TO 20 KNOTS AT TAF SITES.
AIR MASS LOOKS TOO DRY FOR ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE CYCLE.
BOYD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC/LL HIGHS CENTERED NEAR THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ...WITH UL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF STATES.
THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN IN GENERALLY VICINITY THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY...WITH UL HIGHS STRENGTHENING SOME OVER THE MID-SOUTH.
THIS WILL CONTINUE CURRENT STRING OF DRY WEATHER RUNNING THROUGH
THAT TIME.
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...CENTER OF TD IDA EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN GULF
WHILE A COLD FRONT/UL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. SFC/LL HIGHS
BREAKDOWN MONDAY NIGHT AS IDA MOVES LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AND UL
TROUGH/WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROP INTO THE REGION. AT THIS
POINT...DEEPER MOISTURE HAS RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST US BUT IS MUCH
MORE CONCENTRATED TO THE SOUTH/EAST. IDA MEANDERS IN THE NORTHERN
GULF ON TUESDAY AS COLD FRONT AND UL TROUGH AXIS SLIP BY...WITH
SFC/LL HIGHS AND UL RIDGE BUILDING BEHIND TUESDAY NIGHT.
ULTIMATELY...MAIN BRUNT OF IDA SEEMINGLY NEVER MAKES IT FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON THE CWA OTHER THAN ISOLATED-SCATTERED
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLY EAST AND SOUTH EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING WHILE BOUNDARY / UPPER RIDGE PUSH DEEP MOISTURE
OUT OF THE PICTURE.
SFC/LL HIGHS AND UPPER RIDGING MOVE FIRMLY BACK INTO THE PICTURE
WEDNESDAY AND MAINTAIN THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. LATER FRIDAY...UPPER
RIDGE / LL HIGHS BREAKDOWN ALLOWING UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO SLIDE ACROSS LATE...POSSIBLY RETURNING ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01
000
FXUS64 KMEG 071132
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
532 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...
FAIR AND MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...COURTESY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS UPPER RIDGE
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE CAROLINAS BY MONDAY MORNING...AS AN OPEN
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO TX. SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL BRING MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM
IDA INTO MS/AL. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A
DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE MIDSOUTH MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... TAKING A
MORE EASTERLY TRACK OF IDA/S REMNANT SURFACE LOW INTO AL/GA. HAVE
LIKEWISE TRENDED POPS DOWNWARD EARLY IN THE WORKWEEK.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM TX...ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...
INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. AMPLE MIDWEEK SUNSHINE WILL BE
OFFSET BY WEAK COLD ADVECTION.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY
EVENING...LEAVING FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
FLOW INTO THE MIDSOUTH. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK...
AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. GIVEN THE INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AND CLOUDS... LATE WEEK HIGH TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR
NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY WARMER THAN NORMAL NIGHTTIME LOWS.
PWB
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST TENNESSEE THIS MORNING
BEFORE DISSIPATING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE TAF CYCLE AT ALL SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY AND BECOME GUSTY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN
RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST AND A DEVELOPING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
CCD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 74 51 76 56 / 0 0 0 10
MKL 74 43 75 50 / 0 0 0 0
JBR 72 49 72 52 / 0 0 0 0
TUP 74 44 73 53 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMRX 071124
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
631 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS DOMINATE PERIOD. MORNING
FOG ALONG WATERWAYS COULD AFFECT TAF SITES BUT LESS THAN LIKELY.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ TO 8 AM EST /7 AM
CST/ SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ANDERSON...BLEDSOE...
BRADLEY...GRAINGER...HAMBLEN...HAMILTON...JEFFERSON...
KNOX...LOUDON...MARION...MCMINN...MEIGS...NW BLOUNT...NORTH
SEVIER...NORTHWEST COCKE...NORTHWEST MONROE...RHEA...
ROANE...SEQUATCHIE...UNION...WEST POLK.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 070929
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
329 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
FAIR AND MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...COURTESY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS UPPER RIDGE
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE CAROLINAS BY MONDAY MORNING...AS AN OPEN
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO TX. SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL BRING MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM
IDA INTO MS/AL. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A
DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE MIDSOUTH MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... TAKING A
MORE EASTERLY TRACK OF IDA/S REMNANT SURFACE LOW INTO AL/GA. HAVE
LIKEWISE TRENDED POPS DOWNWARD EARLY IN THE WORKWEEK.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM TX...ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...
INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. AMPLE MIDWEEK SUNSHINE WILL BE
OFFSET BY WEAK COLD ADVECTION.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY
EVENING...LEAVING FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
FLOW INTO THE MIDSOUTH. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK...
AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. GIVEN THE INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AND CLOUDS... LATE WEEK HIGH TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR
NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY WARMER THAN NORMAL NIGHTTIME LOWS.
PWB
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE (07/06Z-08/06Z)
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS AT KJBR ARE EXPECTED TO GUSTS TO 20 KTS
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
JCL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 74 51 76 56 / 0 0 0 10
MKL 74 43 75 50 / 0 0 0 0
JBR 72 49 72 52 / 0 0 0 0
TUP 74 44 73 53 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KOHX 070822
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
222 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC/LL HIGHS CENTERED NEAR THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ...WITH UL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF STATES.
THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN IN GENERALLY VICINITY THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY...WITH UL HIGHS STRENGTHENING SOME OVER THE MID-SOUTH.
THIS WILL CONTINUE CURRENT STRING OF DRY WEATHER RUNNING THROUGH
THAT TIME.
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...CENTER OF TD IDA EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN GULF
WHILE A COLD FRONT/UL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. SFC/LL HIGHS
BREAKDOWN MONDAY NIGHT AS IDA MOVES LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AND UL
TROUGH/WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROP INTO THE REGION. AT THIS
POINT...DEEPER MOISTURE HAS RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST US BUT IS MUCH
MORE CONCENTRATED TO THE SOUTH/EAST. IDA MEANDERS IN THE NORTHERN
GULF ON TUESDAY AS COLD FRONT AND UL TROUGH AXIS SLIP BY...WITH
SFC/LL HIGHS AND UL RIDGE BUILDING BEHIND TUESDAY NIGHT.
ULTIMATELY...MAIN BRUNT OF IDA SEEMINGLY NEVER MAKES IT FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON THE CWA OTHER THAN ISOLATED-SCATTERED
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLY EAST AND SOUTH EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING WHILE BOUNDARY / UPPER RIDGE PUSH DEEP MOISTURE
OUT OF THE PICTURE.
SFC/LL HIGHS AND UPPER RIDGING MOVE FIRMLY BACK INTO THE PICTURE
WEDNESDAY AND MAINTAIN THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. LATER FRIDAY...UPPER
RIDGE / LL HIGHS BREAKDOWN ALLOWING UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO SLIDE ACROSS LATE...POSSIBLY RETURNING ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 72 44 74 48 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 71 45 73 49 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 68 39 72 45 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 72 43 74 49 / 0 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 71 42 73 50 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 72 44 73 49 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
07
000
FXUS64 KMRX 070745
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
245 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST.
UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL STREAM MAINLY THIN CIRRUS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPRESS WITH PASSING OF SHORT WAVE THEN
REBUILD BACK IN TONIGHT. MORNING FOG ALONG WATERWAYS. TEMPS WARM A
DEGREE OR TWO.
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ON
SUNDAY...WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE EAST ON MONDAY FOR CONTINUED DRY
AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS. MAIN QUESTION IN THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO
BE THE TRACK OF TUESDAY/S APPROACHING TROPICAL LOW AND HOW MUCH
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL WORK INTO THE AREA. CURRENT MODEL RUNS
TRENDING TOWARD KEEPING MUCH OF THE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST...MINIMIZING POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP INTO THE MRX
CWA. ADDITIONALLY...A WEAK FRONT IS PROGGED INTO THE
REGION...THOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE IS LOW.
OVERALL...WILL CONTINUE WITH POPS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH DID LOWER THEM SLIGHTLY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SLOWLY MOVING EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 71 40 74 46 71 / 0 0 0 0 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 67 41 71 42 70 / 0 0 0 0 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 68 41 72 42 70 / 0 0 0 0 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 66 35 70 38 68 / 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST /7 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: ANDERSON...BLEDSOE...BRADLEY...GRAINGER...
HAMBLEN...HAMILTON...JEFFERSON...KNOX...LOUDON...MARION...
MCMINN...MEIGS...NW BLOUNT...NORTH SEVIER...NORTHWEST
COCKE...NORTHWEST MONROE...RHEA...ROANE...SEQUATCHIE...
UNION...WEST POLK.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SON/MJB
000
FXUS64 KMRX 070528
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1231 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS DOMINATE PERIOD. MORNING
FOG ALONG WATERWAYS COULD AFFECT TAF SITES BUT LESS THAN LIKELY.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ TO 8 AM EST /7 AM
CST/ SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ANDERSON...BLEDSOE...
BRADLEY...GRAINGER...HAMBLEN...HAMILTON...JEFFERSON...
KNOX...LOUDON...MARION...MCMINN...MEIGS...NW BLOUNT...NORTH
SEVIER...NORTHWEST COCKE...NORTHWEST MONROE...RHEA...
ROANE...SEQUATCHIE...UNION...WEST POLK.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 070446 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1046 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 837 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009/
SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S. LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN THEY HAVE
BEEN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS SO NO WORRIES ABOUT FROST OVERNIGHT.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS FINE AND NO UPDATE IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
ARS
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE (07/06Z-08/06Z)
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS AT KJBR ARE EXPECTED TO GUSTS TO 20 KTS
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
JCL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 51 74 53 75 / 0 0 0 0
MKL 45 73 46 75 / 0 0 0 0
JBR 49 71 49 73 / 0 0 0 0
TUP 44 74 45 75 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KOHX 070331
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
931 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009
.UPDATE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
PROVIDING LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS EVENING.
EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME NEAR CALM OVER EASTERN AREAS, BUT WILL PROBABLY
REMAIN IN THE 3 TO 5 KT RANGE OVER WESTERN AREAS WHERE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER (ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST).
WINDS WILL MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE FOR TONIGHT`S LOWS SINCE SKIES ARE
CLEAR AND DEW POINTS REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW. HAVE BUMPED MINS UP A
BIT IN THE NORTHWEST, WHERE LIGHT WINDS SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THINGS
MIXED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS WILL BE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
BOUNDARY LAYER WARM TONGUE EXTENDING FROM LOUISIANA NORTHEASTWARD
INTO SOUTHWESTERN KENTUCKY AND NORTHWESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE, LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
19
000
FXUS64 KMRX 070256
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
955 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND A LITTLE BIT OF CI EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. RADIATION IS
OCCURRING AS EXPECTED IN THE CLEAR SKY LIGHT WIND ENVIRONMENT. FROST
WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND WILL SEND THE ADVISORY OUT AGAIN FOR
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 39 71 40 74 44 / 0 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 37 67 41 71 43 / 0 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 38 68 41 72 44 / 0 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 30 66 35 70 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ TO 8 AM EST /7 AM
CST/ SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ANDERSON...BLEDSOE...
BRADLEY...GRAINGER...HAMBLEN...HAMILTON...JEFFERSON...
KNOX...LOUDON...MARION...MCMINN...MEIGS...NW BLOUNT...NORTH
SEVIER...NORTHWEST COCKE...NORTHWEST MONROE...RHEA...
ROANE...SEQUATCHIE...UNION...WEST POLK.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 070237
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
837 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S. LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN THEY HAVE
BEEN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS SO NO WORRIES ABOUT FROST OVERNIGHT.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS FINE AND NO UPDATE IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
ARS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009/
DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009/
A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE MID SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL KEEP DRY AND
WARM WEATHER IN PLACE WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WARMER THAN
RECENT NIGHTS.
A COMPLEX WEATHER SCENARIO THEN DEVELOPS FOR THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK. MUCH OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
A SOUTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG
THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY MONDAY. DEEP MOISTURE GETS PULLED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THIS SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ONCE AGAIN
TROPICAL STORM IDA. THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
RESPECT TO HOW FAR NORTH THE DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTS. THE LATEST 12Z
ECMWF PULLS IDA NORTHWARD TO THE GULF COAST AND ADVECTS DEEP
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. THE LATEST 12Z GFS IS LESS
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
KEEPS IDA STALLED ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AS IT
TRANSITIONS EXTRATROPICAL. SINCE UNCERTAINTY IS GREATER THAN
NORMAL DURING THIS FORECAST TIME PERIOD HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS DURING THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD.
MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE AGREES THAT ALL RAIN CHANCES SHOULD COME TO
AN END BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK OVER THE
MID SOUTH FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. ANTICIPATE A RETURN
TO DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE (07/00Z-08/00Z)
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS AT KJBR EXPECTED TO GUSTS TO 20 KTS DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY.
JCL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 51 74 53 75 / 0 0 0 0
MKL 45 73 46 75 / 0 0 0 0
JBR 49 71 49 73 / 0 0 0 0
TUP 44 74 45 75 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KOHX 070056
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
656 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009
.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...LOOK FOR VFR WX THE NEXT 24 HRS AT BNA/CSV. SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP TOMORROW, AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE TO 8-9 KTS BY 15Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009/
DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REASONING WILL BE BASED ON A LEAN TOWARD A CONSENSUS MODEL
SOLUTION FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED.
CURRENTLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS E PORTIONS OF MID STATE
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS NOTED MOVING INTO
W AND CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE...OTHERWISE SUNNY SKIES.
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND WINDS CALM TO GENERALLY
LIGHT E THRU S.
FORECAST QUANDARIES...SFC HIGH PRESSURE/RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE E...ALLOWING FOR A SLOW GRADUAL INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE THRU 12Z MON. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR WEAK SHORTWAVE
PASSAGES TO RIDE OVER TOP OF RIDGING ALOFT...BRINGING A FEW HI
LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE REMAINDER OF THE MID STATE...ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT. WILL ADDRESS THIS SCENARIO WITH MOCLR SKIES AT NIGHT AND
MOSUNNY SKIES DURING THE DAY THRU 00Z MON. WITH SWLY MOISTURE
FETCH DEVELOPING SFC/ALOFT MAINLY AFTER 00Z MON...WILL ADDRESS SKY
CONDITIONS AS PTCLDY.
AS FOR TEMPS...OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...GFS MOS HAS BEEN
GENERALLY AVERAGING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN ACTUAL LOWS AND A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN ACTUAL HIGHS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS RIDGING
PATTERN. EVEN THOUGH RIDGING PATTERN WILL BE MOVING EWD...AND STILL
INCLINED TO UNDERCUT LOWS. 12Z GFS MOS COMING A LITTLE WARMER ON
HIGHS...AND WILL LEAN TOWARD THE MORE REASONABLE MET MOS GUIDANCE
VALUES ON SAT WITH A LEAN BACK TOWARD GFS MOS FOR HIGHS ON SUN. WITH
INCREASED SWLY MOISTURE WILL GO WITH A GFS/NAM COMPROMISE ON LOWS
FOR SUN NIGHT.
THE REAL QUANDARY BEGINS AROUND 12Z MON CONCERNING WHAT IS ACTUALLY
GOING TO HAPPEN WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA...WHICH HPC HAS THE
MAIN TRACK SHOWING THAT IDA WILL BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE
OPEN WARM WATER ON SAT AS IT MOVES NNW THRU MON MORNING...THEN CURVES
SLIGHTLY NEWD...AND BECOMES AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY EARLY WED
AFTERNOON...SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES S OF THE FL PANHANDLE. THUS THE
FOLLOWING QUESTIONS NEED TO BE LOOKED INTO. HOW MUCH MOISTURE...AND
IN PARTICULARLY...RAINFALL COVERAGE/AMOUNTS? WILL THERE BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR TSTMS? WHAT ABOUT THE EXPECTED FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
TUE...ALONG WITH STRONG RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT BUILDING IN
BEHIND...WILL THIS KEEP THE MOISTURE MAINLY S OF THE MID STATE?
HOWEVER...NHC`S POTENTIAL FOUR TO FIVE DAY TRACK INCLUDES THE
CNTRL GULF COAST STATES...AND WILL BE CONSERVATIVE HERE AND LEAN
TOWARD THE EURO SOLUTION AT THIS TIME...AS IT IS PROBABLY THE MOST
REALISTIC IN BRINGING MOISTURE/RAINFALL INTO THE MID STATE. WILL
GO WITH MOCLDY SKIES MON AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS
ACROSS S PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE BY MON AFTERNOON ALSO. EURO HAS
LOW JUST S OF MOBILE BAY BY 12Z TUE AND MOVES IT NEWD INTO THE FL
PANHANDLE NEAR THE CHATTTAHOOCHEE RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z WED...MOVING
MOISTURE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF MID STATE. FRONT EXPECTED TO BE
ACROSS W PORTIONS OF MID STATE BY TUE MORNING...AND MOVE THRU MID
STATE THRU THE DAY...WITH STRONG RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT BUILDING IN
BEHIND. INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT SHOULD BE MINIMAL FOR
ANY TSTM DEVELOPMENT...AND THUS WILL NOT MENTION. CURRENT RAINFALL
PROGS SHOWING TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE NO MORE
THAN ONE INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
AS OF THIS TIME...WITH THIS SCENARIO STILL BEING SEVERAL DAYS OUT...
WILL CONTINUE CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST FOR SCT SHWRS TUE AND THEN
SHWRS ENDING W TO E BY 12Z WED ACROSS THE MID STATE.
BUILDING RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THRU
AT LEAST FRI...WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING EITHER NEXT
WEEKEND OR THE MON OR TUE THAT FOLLOWS.
AS FOR TEMPS...WILL GO CLOSE TO MEX MOS GUIDANCE VALUES THRU
EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
ROSE
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