000
FXUS64 KAMA 240332 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
932 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009

.UPDATE...
UPDATED PUBLIC AND FIRE WEATHER FORECASTS MAINLY FOR EVENING TEMPORAL
WORDING OF WINDS. WINDS DIMINISHING EXCEPT ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE WHERE WINDS MAY REMAIN IN THE BREEZY TO
WINDY CATEGORY MOST OF TONIGHT. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO DEW POINT AND RH
GRIDS...OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECASTS LOOK TO BE ON TRACK.

ALL PUBLIC AND FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED AND SENT.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 535 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009/

AVIATION...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS THE WINDS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS WE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS IN PLACE. CURRENT
SFC WINDS STILL NEAR 20 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KNOTS. AM
CONCERNED WINDS MAY STAY GUSTY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...SO KEPT THE
WINDS UP THROUGH 02 OR 03Z...BUT SHOULD THEN SEE WINDS FALL TO AROUND
15 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...STRONG LL JET WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT WITH 40 TO 50 KNOTS WINDS OFF THE SURFACE SO WAS CONCERNED
LLWS MAY BE AN ISSUE AFTER 09Z. ONLY MITIGATING FACTOR WILL BE THE
GENLY UNIFORM WIND DIRECTION AS THE SFC AND LOWER LEVELS SHOULD BE
BLOWING FROM THE NORTH. WENT ON THE CAUTIOUS SIDE AGAIN AND INSERTED
LLWS REMARKS THROUGH 15 OR 16Z...BUT THEN ANTICIPATE THE LL JET
WEAKENING AND STRONG SURFACE WINDS DEVELOPING FOR THE REST OF THE TAF.

JJB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009/

DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE I 40 CORRIDOR. THIS SHOULD PUSH
THE REST OF THE WAY THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS. BEHIND
THE FRONT...WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 40KT AT TIMES. DESPITE THE
COLDER AIR MASS ADVECTING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...BREEZY WINDS WILL
LEAD TO ENHANCED MIXING...LEADING TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AS THE
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH...AND WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY TOMORROW NIGHT.

THIS CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS...AND DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL REMAIN THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES FOR THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY. EXPECT SOME MODIFICATION OF THE AIR MASS THROUGH THIS PERIOD
LEADING TO A MODEST WARMING TREND. BY FRIDAY...SURFACE TROUGH DIGS
SOUTH. THE TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NM STATE
LINE...LEADING TO LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND ENHANCED WARMING
ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT...FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST
DAY. COULD SEE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY. WITH THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW...WILL GET SOME MUCH NEEDED MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM.

NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK TO AFFECT THE REGION LATE
IN THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
MORNING ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF...BUT MORE LIKELY WON`T ARRIVE UNTIL
LATER ON SATURDAY...ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES
THE ROCKIES. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW PRECIPITATION OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY AND/OR SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE MODELS NOW SHOWING AT
LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...AND
COMING CLOSER INTO AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM...HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED MOSTLY RAIN SUNDAY CHANGING TO MOSTLY SNOW
SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...IF THE COLD AIR MASS IS AS DEEP AS
THE GFS IS SHOWING...THE PRECIPITATION MAY BE MOSTLY SNOW.

SJOHNSON

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO HOURS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. ONCE THE FRONT REACHES THESE
LOCATIONS HOWEVER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD RAPIDLY
RECOVER...THOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
BY TOMORROW...COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION...AS A RESULT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

SJOHNSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/11

000
FXUS64 KCRP 240323 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
923 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009

.DISCUSSION...00Z NAM12 HAS TRICKLED IN AND SHOWS A SLIGHT
SLOWDOWN IN THE OVERALL FRONTAL PROGRESSION FOR TUESDAY. HOWEVER,
AM NOT SEEING ENOUGH OF A DIFFERENCE TO WARRANT ANY LARGE-SCALE
CHANGES TO GOING FORECASTS IN THIS REGARD.

MORE IMPORTANTLY IN THE SHORT TERM, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THAT WERE
IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES EARLY IN THE
EVENING SUDDENLY DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, BUT
HAVE NOW BEGUN TO REDEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND ARE FANNING OUT SLOWLY TO THE NORTH. WAS
INITIALLY CONCERNED THAT LESS CLOUD COVER WOULD LEAD TO GREATER
FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT, BUT DENSE FOG IS STILL NOT LOOKING
HIGHLY LIKELY AS CLOUD COVER REDEVELOPS. 00Z MET MOS CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES SUPPORT THE LACK OF DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT AS THEY ARE
ACTUALLY LESS PESSIMISTIC THAN THE 12Z GUIDANCE REGARDING THE
LOWEST VALUES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL RAMP UP OVERNIGHT DUE TO INCREASING
MOISTURE/THICKENING CLOUDS. FORECAST ELEMENTS LOOKING ON TRACK SO
NO UPDATE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009/

DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN NRN TEXAS. THE COMBINATION OF
INCREASING MOISTURE...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO DECREASING CIGS AND
VSBYS OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH CURRENT 5000 FT SCU DECK SPREADING OVER
THE REGION SHOULD DELAY THE STRATUS FORMATION SOMEWHAT AND HAVE
SLOWED DOWN TIMING SOMEWHAT. STILL EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT AS CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRATUS. THE FRONT
WILL BRING A RELATIVELY THIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND SOME TSTMS TO THE
REGION IN THE MORNING. RAIN CHCS ARE HIGH...BUT W/ THE MAIN
FORCING BEING THE FRONT ITSELF...PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST
MORE THAN AN HOUR OR TWO. CIGS WILL RISE ABOVE MVFR LEVELS BY
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM IS THE FRONT...TIMING AND RAIN WITH IT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW LESS INSTABILITY (LOWER CAPE/HIGHER CINS) PRE-FRONTAL...WITH
BEST INSTABILITY OVER THE GULF WATERS. GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION IS
FORECAST TONIGHT (ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING) IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER/MID
LEVELS...SO DECIDED TO KICK UP POPS A BIT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS...WITH ONLY MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE GULF AND NEAR THE
COAST (SLIGHT CHANCE INLAND). FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN
AREAS NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z...GOING THROUGH VICTORIA AROUND
13Z...LAREDO 14Z...KCRP 16Z AND NEAR THE COAST BY 18Z. MODELS KEEP
RAIN GOING AND THINK MOST OF THIS WILL BE SHOWERY (EXCEPT IN
GULF AND NEAR COAST)...SO INCREASED POPS (UP TO 80) FOR THE EXTREME
EAST WITH LOWER VALUES NORTH AND WEST (AND HIGHEST IN THE
MORNING). BIG POP GRADIENT IN THE AFTERNOON AS NOT MUCH IN UPPER
FORCING SO FEEL WITH RAIN MAINLY WITH BOUNDARY RAIN SHOULD QUICKLY
TAPER OFF. NO RAIN IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT EXCEPT OFFSHORE. CLOUDS
WILL DECREASE MAINLY DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. EXPECT SOME FOG PRE-FRONTAL
OVERNIGHT BUT WITH CLOUD BLANKET TONIGHT AND A BIT BETTER WINDS IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER...DO NOT EXPECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG (PATCHY AT
BEST). PRIOR TO FRONT...WENT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE...BEHIND
FRONT ON TUESDAY ON THE LOW SIDE...WITH MAINLY BELOW GUIDANCE
NUMBERS (ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST) TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING WINDS
AND SKIES AND NNW INLAND BREEZE.

MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...EXPECT SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT THEN POSSIBLE THUNDER AFTER MIDNIGHT AS ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES UNSTABLE. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BECOMES WIDESPREAD ALONG THE
FRONT THEN DECREASES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. SCA WILL BE NEEDED
ON TUESDAY (ALL MARINE INTERESTS BEHIND THE FRONT)...POSSIBLY
ENDING FOR THE BAYS BY EARLY EVENING.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE PROCESS OF SETTLING INTO SOUTH TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY WITH A
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY. WAS LEANING TOWARD
UNDERCUTTING GUIDANCE FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THANKSGIVING
MORNING BUT MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
MOVE INTO SOUTH TEXAS AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
NORTHWEST MEXICO...THUS LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING A BIT. WENT
CLOSE TO THE COOLER NAM GUIDANCE. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO THANKSGIVING INTO
FRIDAY...AND WILL SEE ENOUGH MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FOR PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA
ON SATURDAY WITH AN DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES.
LOW PRESSURE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO INCREASED RETURN FLOW
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
LEADING TO ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS. WILL
SHOW LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR THE REGION NORTH OF I-37 FOR SUNDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO VEER TO SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ESPECIALLY THE GFS WHICH WOULD LIMIT RAIN CHANCES
UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS/ECMWF ARE SIMILAR SHOWING
THE MID/UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH ECMWF A
BIT SLOWER. MODELS SHOW STRONG COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT AND WENT 1-2
CATEGORIES BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    63  72  49  69  45  /  40  80  10   0   0
VICTORIA          55  65  43  67  40  /  30  70  10   0   0
LAREDO            61  67  48  71  48  /  20  50  10   0   0
ALICE             60  71  47  70  44  /  30  70  10   0   0
ROCKPORT          63  71  50  68  47  /  40  80  10   0   0
COTULLA           56  63  40  70  42  /  20  40  10   0   0
KINGSVILLE        63  72  48  69  43  /  40  80  10   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       66  73  53  67  50  /  40  80  10   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

JAR/19...SHORT TERM/AVIATION
MG/88...LONG TERM

000
FXUS64 KHGX 240304
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
904 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009

.UPDATE...
EVENING FORECAST UPDATE.  NO UPDATE ISSUED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OVERALL THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND MAY DECOUPLE IN SOME AREAS.
WHERE THIS HAPPENS...PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP BUT SHOULD NOT BE AS
DENSE AS THIS MORNING. COLD FRONT IS WORKING THROUGH THE TX
PANHANDLE AND W C TX. FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH SE TX DURING THE
MORNING HOURS TUE WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS. POPS MIGHT BE OVERDONE
IN THE AFTERNOON BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME LINGERING
STRATIFORM RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CLEAR TUE NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS DROPPING INTO
THE LOW 40S. TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE QUITE
SEASONABLE.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM LAWTON OK TO LUBBOCK TEXAS AND WAS
PUSHING SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT WILL APPROACH CLL AROUND 12Z...IAH
AROUND 14Z AND THE COAST AROUND 16-17Z. DEEPEST MOISTURE IS
CONFINED TO THE COAST...SO FEEL BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG
THE FRONT AS IT NEARS THE COAST. COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AS WINDS DECOUPLE. SLOW CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT BUT
MAINLY VFR AFTER 18Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER NICE AFTN ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID
70S AND JUST SOME SCATTERED CU. ONSHORE FLOW HAS ALLOWED DEWPOINTS
TO RECOVER TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
AGAIN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
AND A BIT STRONGER MIXING IN THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD PRECLUDE THE
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG SEEN THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
THE UPPER LOW OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTN. ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT NOW ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE WILL MOVE ACROSS SE TX
TUESDAY. GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE NAM TIMING ON THE FRONT WHICH IS
MAYBE JUST A COUPLE HOURS SLOWER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. FRONT
SHOULD REACH NW ZONES 12-14Z...CROSS HOUSTON METRO 15-17Z AND PUSH
OFF THE COAST 18-19Z. AS MENTIONED BEFORE BOTH MOISTURE RETURN AND
JET DYNAMICS ARE GOING TO BE FAIRLY UNIMPRESSIVE WITH THIS EVENT.
STILL...EXPECT PWS OF 1.2-1.4 INCHES TO POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LIFT ALONG THE FRONT WILL GENERATE SCATTERED -SHRA WITH SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE SOUTH. BEST PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE OVER
THE COASTAL AREAS/SW ZONES WHERE BEST MOISTURE IS IN PLACE. RAIN
SHOULD END BY MID AFTN MOST AREAS FOLLOWED BY RAPID CLEARING.
PRECIP TOTALS WILL BE LIGHT...AVERAGING 1/4 INCH IN MOST SPOTS.
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS SE TX TUE NIGHT/WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN
CLEAR/COOL CONDITIONS. LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN
STATES WHICH WILL PUSH A DRY REINFORCING FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
THANKSGIVING DAY. EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF COOL/DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THANKSGIVING WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S.
THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE THE COOLEST NIGHT AS SFC HIGH SETTLES
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. HAVE LOWERED MINS THIS PERIOD WITH MANY INLAND
LOCATIONS INCLUDING HOUSTON POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S
AND A LIGHT FREEZE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE NE ZONES. WE
ARE OVERDUE FOR THIS SINCE THIS NORMALLY HAPPENS FOR THE FIRST
TIME IN MID NOVEMBER.

FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL LATE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW ONSHORE FLOW
TO BECOME REESTABLISHED LATE FRIDAY...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE LEVELS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND. 12Z
ECMWF SHOWS A DECENT SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA FRI
NIGHT/SATURDAY SO HAVE ADDED 20 POPS TO THE FCST. LATEST RUNS OF
THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE PATTERN CHANGE
EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH MODELS INDICATE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE SRN
ROCKIES LATE WEEKEND...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER
TEXAS. DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD TAP INTO SOME DEEP GULF
MOISTURE AND DRAW IT NORTH INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY. A LEAD
DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY. MODELS ARE FORECASTING
IMPRESSIVE JET DYNAMICS (120 KT JET STREAK AT 300 MB) SO SOME
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS SE TX MONDAY AS THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH LIFTS THROUGH THE PLAINS.

35

AVIATION...
ANOTHER BOUT OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT/EARLY TUES AS WAA CONT-
INUES TO DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN. AS OPPOSED TO LAST NIGHT WE COULD SEE
MORE LOW CLOUDS THAN FOG TONIGHT...ALONG WITH THE STRAY -SHRA (ESP-
ECIALLY FOR SITES CLOSER TO THE COAST: LBX GLS SGR).OTHERWISE WILL
LIKELY KEEP WITH GOING FROPA TIMES (I.E. CLL@15-17Z IAH@17-19Z GLS
@20-22Z). ALSO NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT OF PCPN WITH FROPA AS THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE.  41

MARINE...
FAIRLY CALM CONDITIONS TONIGHT/MOST OF TOMORROW AS A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW PRECEDES THE NEXT COLD FRONT. MODELS STILL A BIT WAFFLEY WITH
FROPA TIMING AS THE GFS CONTINUES TO RUN A BIT FASTER THAN THE NAM.
BUT MODERATE/STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS EXPECTED FOR ALL OF OUR COASTAL
WATERS/BAYS BY TOMORROW NIGHT. SCA LIKELY TO RUN THROUGH WEDS AFTN
OR SO. A MORE LIGHT/MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN THEN ON TAP FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. THE
HIGH WILL EDGE EAST OF THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR THE RE-
TURN OF ONSHORE WINDS AT THAT TIME.  41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      54  63  43  65  41 /  30  40  10   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              58  65  45  65  43 /  20  50  10   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            64  71  53  65  52 /  20  60  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39

000
FXUS64 KSJT 240257
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
857 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009

.UPDATE...
COLD FRONT SOUTH OF I-20...ALONG THE SOUTHERN NOLAN AND TAYLOR
COUNTY LINES...MOVING SOUTH AT AROUND 30 MPH. FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE...BUT MAY DO SOME MINOR CHANGES ON WINDS TO ADJUST FOR
POSITION OF FRONT AND TO INCREASE WINDS SLIGHTLY.

04


&&

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009/

DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING QUICKLY SOUTH INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND IT AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. CURRENTLY...BEHIND THE FRONT...NORTH
WINDS ARE SUSTAINED AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS OR SO.
WILL TEMPER SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS AT AREA TAF SITES AS SOME OF
THE MIXING ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT AFTER
THE SUN SETS TONIGHT WHEN THE FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH
OUR TAF SITES. EITHER WAY...A PROFOUND WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH AREA SITES...EXPECTING THE FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH KABI AROUND 9PM TONIGHT...BETWEEN 11PM AND MIDNIGHT AT
KSJT...AND AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR OUR SOUTHERN SITES. WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME MVFR/BRIEFLY IFR CIGS AT KSOA/KJCT/KBBD TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THESE CEILINGS LIFTING
AND/OR SCATTERING OUT BEFORE SUNRISE...SO WILL SHOW CEILINGS
LIFTING BY AROUND 6AM TOMORROW MORNING AT THESE SOUTHERN SITES. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009/

SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WILL SURGE
SOUTH THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THAT MOVED INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND IS NOW BEING SOMEWHAT
SCOURED OUT THIS AFTERNOON...WILL HEAD BACK TONIGHT. HOWEVER...FRONT
WILL PUSH IT RIGHT BACK OUT BY SUNRISE. WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT WE
EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO MAKE A PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN THIRD OR HALF
OF THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT THE FRONT SHOULD LARGELY PUSH THEM BACK
OUT OF EVEN THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY BY SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

GIVEN THE MOISTURE MOVING BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FOR LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ANY RAIN THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED AND LIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW REINFORCING
SHOTS OF COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS TO PUSH INTO WC TX
ALL THE WAY THROUGH YOUR THANKSGIVING DAY HOLIDAY. THESE SURFACE
HIGHS WILL CREATE COLD NIGHTS AND SUNNY AFTERNOONS.

LONG TERM...
BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AN UPPER TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH THE ROCKIES RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...AND A STRONGER SOUTH WIND ACROSS WC TX.

THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DEEPEN THE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF DEPICTS A
CLOSED OFF LOW THAT TRACKS FROM FAR W TX ACROSS ABILENE AND THE
BIG COUNTRY ON MONDAY. THE GFS PROGS A DEEP PROGRESSIVE OPEN
TROUGH ACROSS THE LONE STAR STATE...AND THE ENSEMBLES HAD MANY
DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WHICH TRANSLATES TO MUCH UNCERTAINTY.

THE COMBINATION OF A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH AND A STRONG COLD
FRONT COULD PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION...EVEN THE WINTRY
TYPE...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SINCE THE MODELS HAVE BEEN QUITE
INCONSISTENT LATELY BECAUSE OF THE CHANGE OF SEASONS...PLAN TO
TREND TO COLDER AND SLIGHTLY WETTER FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK AND NOT INCLUDE THE MENTION OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION JUST YET.
PLAN TO CONTINUE 10-15 POPS SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  38  61  32  65  35 /  10   0   0   0   0
SAN ANGELO  40  63  28  65  31 /  10  10   0   0   0
JUNCTION  47  62  28  66  30 /  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/04

000
FXUS64 KFWD 240156 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
756 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009

.UPDATE...
FRONT CONTINUES TO RACE SOUTHEAST...A FEW HOURS FASTER THAN ANY OF
THE MODELS SUGGEST. UPDATING FORECAST TO BUMP UP THE TIMING IN THE
GRIDS AND TO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS BEHIND FROPA. SOME GUSTS OF 35
TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NW ZONES...BUT THESE STRONG GUSTS WILL BE BRIEF AND
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.

TR.92

&&

.AVIATION...
2Z UPDATE
AMENDED TAFS FOR EARLIER FROPA OF 5-6Z IN THE METROPLEX AND 7-8Z AT
WACO.


00Z TAF PACKAGE
A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE AT ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AROUND 08-09Z.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING WITH WIND SPEEDS
DECREASING BY 01Z. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 05Z
TONIGHT BUT SKIES SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR OUT AS THE FRONT PASSES.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 13-15 KTS WILL OCCUR AFTER FROPA BUT
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY TO 15-17 KTS GUSTING UP TO 25
KTS. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN ALONG THE FRONT IS MINIMAL AND HAVE
REMOVED THE MENTION FROM THE TAFS.

82/JLD


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009/
A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS SOUTH INTO WEST TEXAS...WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. AS
THE FRONT COLD FRONT APPROACHES...WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES INTO
THE REGION...BUT THIS FOG SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED...AND HAVE NOT
MENTIONED IT IN THE ZONES. SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE EAST INTO TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FROM WHAT WE HAVE
BEEN FORECASTING FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH BELOW SEASONAL
NORMAL LOWS AND NEAR NORMAL HIGHS. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER
REINFORCEMENT OF COOL/COLD AIR THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. WE WILL ENTER A WET PERIOD STARTING SATURDAY
NIGHT THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A
STRONG TROUGH DIGS INTO THE ROCKIES AND THEN MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. WE WILL SEE A SEE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH COLD RAIN CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS ESPECIALLY FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BUT THIS IS AT THE
END OR JUST PAST THE END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  46  65  38  66  38 /  20   5   0   0   5
WACO, TX              48  67  38  68  37 /  20  10   0   0   5
PARIS, TX             46  62  36  63  37 /  30  20   5   0   5
DENTON, TX            44  65  33  66  34 /  20   5   0   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX          47  65  33  65  34 /  20   5   0   0   5
DALLAS, TX            49  65  41  67  41 /  20   5   0   0   5
TERRELL, TX           49  65  39  65  38 /  30  10   0   0   5
CORSICANA, TX         46  65  39  65  40 /  30  10   0   0   5
TEMPLE, TX            51  67  39  68  37 /  20  10   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/92

000
FXUS64 KEWX 240137
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
737 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO SHOW A SLIGHTLY SLOWER INCREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES TONIGHT AND ADD SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOST OTHER CHANGES WERE COSMETIC, BUT SOME SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO EXTENDED PERIOD RAIN CHANCES TO REFLECT
LATEST MODEL RUNS AND TO IMPROVE CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009/

AVIATION...
S TO SE WINDS 4 TO 9 KTS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING AND BRING
STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS BY LATE EVENING LOWERING TO IFR OVERNIGHT.
PATCHY BR WITH MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS. THE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 09Z AND 11Z WITH
THE FRONT BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z. SHRA WILL DEVELOP AS THE PREFRONTAL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS AND CONTINUE UNTIL A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE ONLY GONE WITH VCSH AT THE TAF SITES DUE
UNCERTAINTY ON IMPACTS AS BEST MOISTURE IS S OF THE SITES. CIGS
WILL RAPIDLY LIFT TO VFR WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THEN CLOUDS
DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NLY AT 6 TO 12 KTS
WITH THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND INCREASE TO 12 TO 18 KTS WITH GUSTS
22 TO 28 KTS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES
INTO THE AREA TUE EVENING. REMAINING CLOUDS WILL CLEAR AND WINDS
WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 8 KTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009/

DISCUSSION...
GULF MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON..SPREADING NORTH AND EAST THIS EVENING. THIS SURGE OF
MOISTURE IS AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY MOVING COLD FRONT SLATED TO MOVE
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS. CLEARING AND COOLER DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WITH A CAA PATTERN CONTINUING TOMORROW NIGHT..CLEAR AND COLDER
TOMORROW NIGHT. UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY..THE ANCHORED
DRY SURFACE RIDGE WILL PROMOTE SUNNY SKIES AND MILD DAYTIME TEMPS.
A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD..DRY AIR WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH A CHILLY THANKSGIVING MORNING IN STORE. SUBFREEZING TEMPERA-
TURES ARE FORECAST IN THE HILL COUNTRY THURSDAY MORNING. SUNNY
BUT COOL THANKSGIVING WITH HIGHS 65-70. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. CONTINUED MOIST ADVECTION PATTERN SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MILD WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A PACIFIC FRONT MOVING ACROSS SUNDAY MAY
ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES OVER EASTERN SECTIONS SUNDAY. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE MILD TO WARM PACIFIC AIRMASS SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL DIG INTO SOUTH TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH COOL
BLUSTERY WEATHER ON TAP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              52  67  44  69  42 /  10  20  -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  53  65  37  70  35 /  20  20  -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     53  66  39  70  40 /  20  20  -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            52  63  39  67  37 /  10  10   0  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           52  66  41  70  42 /  10  10   0  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        51  65  42  67  40 /  10  10  -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             54  67  38  70  38 /  10  20  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        52  66  39  68  40 /  20  20  -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   54  66  40  64  39 /  30  40  -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       55  66  40  68  41 /  20  20  -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           55  67  41  72  40 /  20  30  -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

18/04

000
FXUS64 KCRP 240015 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
615 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009

.DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN NRN TEXAS. THE COMBINATION OF
INCREASING MOISTURE...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO DECREASING CIGS AND
VSBYS OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH CURRENT 5000 FT SCU DECK SPREADING OVER
THE REGION SHOULD DELAY THE STRATUS FORMATION SOMEWHAT AND HAVE
SLOWED DOWN TIMING SOMEWHAT. STILL EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT AS CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRATUS. THE FRONT
WILL BRING A RELATIVELY THIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND SOME TSTMS TO THE
REGION IN THE MORNING. RAIN CHCS ARE HIGH...BUT W/ THE MAIN
FORCING BEING THE FRONT ITSELF...PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST
MORE THAN AN HOUR OR TWO. CIGS WILL RISE ABOVE MVFR LEVELS BY
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM IS THE FRONT...TIMING AND RAIN WITH IT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW LESS INSTABILITY (LOWER CAPE/HIGHER CINS) PRE-FRONTAL...WITH
BEST INSTABILITY OVER THE GULF WATERS. GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION IS
FORECAST TONIGHT (ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING) IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER/MID
LEVELS...SO DECIDED TO KICK UP POPS A BIT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS...WITH ONLY MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE GULF AND NEAR THE
COAST (SLIGHT CHANCE INLAND). FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN
AREAS NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z...GOING THROUGH VICTORIA AROUND
13Z...LAREDO 14Z...KCRP 16Z AND NEAR THE COAST BY 18Z. MODELS KEEP
RAIN GOING AND THINK MOST OF THIS WILL BE SHOWERY (EXCEPT IN
GULF AND NEAR COAST)...SO INCREASED POPS (UP TO 80) FOR THE EXTREME
EAST WITH LOWER VALUES NORTH AND WEST (AND HIGHEST IN THE
MORNING). BIG POP GRADIENT IN THE AFTERNOON AS NOT MUCH IN UPPER
FORCING SO FEEL WITH RAIN MAINLY WITH BOUNDARY RAIN SHOULD QUICKLY
TAPER OFF. NO RAIN IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT EXCEPT OFFSHORE. CLOUDS
WILL DECREASE MAINLY DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. EXPECT SOME FOG PRE-FRONTAL
OVERNIGHT BUT WITH CLOUD BLANKET TONIGHT AND A BIT BETTER WINDS IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER...DO NOT EXPECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG (PATCHY AT
BEST). PRIOR TO FRONT...WENT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE...BEHIND
FRONT ON TUESDAY ON THE LOW SIDE...WITH MAINLY BELOW GUIDANCE
NUMBERS (ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST) TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING WINDS
AND SKIES AND NNW INLAND BREEZE.

MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...EXPECT SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT THEN POSSIBLE THUNDER AFTER MIDNIGHT AS ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES UNSTABLE. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BECOMES WIDESPREAD ALONG THE
FRONT THEN DECREASES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. SCA WILL BE NEEDED
ON TUESDAY (ALL MARINE INTERESTS BEHIND THE FRONT)...POSSIBLY
ENDING FOR THE BAYS BY EARLY EVENING.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE PROCESS OF SETTLING INTO SOUTH TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY WITH A
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY. WAS LEANING TOWARD
UNDERCUTTING GUIDANCE FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THANKSGIVING
MORNING BUT MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
MOVE INTO SOUTH TEXAS AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
NORTHWEST MEXICO...THUS LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING A BIT. WENT
CLOSE TO THE COOLER NAM GUIDANCE. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO THANKSGIVING INTO
FRIDAY...AND WILL SEE ENOUGH MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FOR PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA
ON SATURDAY WITH AN DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES.
LOW PRESSURE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO INCREASED RETURN FLOW
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
LEADING TO ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS. WILL
SHOW LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR THE REGION NORTH OF I-37 FOR SUNDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO VEER TO SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ESPECIALLY THE GFS WHICH WOULD LIMIT RAIN CHANCES
UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS/ECMWF ARE SIMILAR SHOWING
THE MID/UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH ECMWF A
BIT SLOWER. MODELS SHOW STRONG COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT AND WENT 1-2
CATEGORIES BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    63  72  49  69  45  /  40  80  10   0   0
VICTORIA          55  65  43  67  40  /  30  70  10   0   0
LAREDO            61  67  48  71  48  /  20  50  10   0   0
ALICE             60  71  47  70  44  /  30  70  10   0   0
ROCKPORT          63  71  50  68  47  /  40  80  10   0   0
COTULLA           56  63  40  70  42  /  20  40  10   0   0
KINGSVILLE        63  72  48  69  43  /  40  80  10   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       66  73  53  67  50  /  40  80  10   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

MG/88...SHORT TERM
MG/88...LONG TERM

000
FXUS64 KEWX 232355
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
555 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009

.AVIATION...
S TO SE WINDS 4 TO 9 KTS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING AND BRING
STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS BY LATE EVENING LOWERING TO IFR OVERNIGHT.
PATCHY BR WITH MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS. THE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 09Z AND 11Z WITH
THE FRONT BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z. SHRA WILL DEVELOP AS THE PREFRONTAL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS AND CONTINUE UNTIL A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE ONLY GONE WITH VCSH AT THE TAF SITES DUE
UNCERTAINTY ON IMPACTS AS BEST MOISTURE IS S OF THE SITES. CIGS
WILL RAPIDLY LIFT TO VFR WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THEN CLOUDS
DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NLY AT 6 TO 12 KTS
WITH THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND INCREASE TO 12 TO 18 KTS WITH GUSTS
22 TO 28 KTS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES
INTO THE AREA TUE EVENING. REMAINING CLOUDS WILL CLEAR AND WINDS
WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 8 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009/

DISCUSSION...
GULF MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON..SPREADING NORTH AND EAST THIS EVENING. THIS SURGE OF
MOISTURE IS AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY MOVING COLD FRONT SLATED TO MOVE
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS. CLEARING AND COOLER DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WITH A CAA PATTERN CONTINUING TOMORROW NIGHT..CLEAR AND COLDER
TOMORROW NIGHT. UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY..THE ANCHORED
DRY SURFACE RIDGE WILL PROMOTE SUNNY SKIES AND MILD DAYTIME TEMPS.
A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD..DRY AIR WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH A CHILLY THANKSGIVING MORNING IN STORE. SUBFREEZING TEMPERA-
TURES ARE FORECAST IN THE HILL COUNTRY THURSDAY MORNING. SUNNY
BUT COOL THANKSGIVING WITH HIGHS 65-70. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. CONTINUED MOIST ADVECTION PATTERN SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MILD WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A PACIFIC FRONT MOVING ACROSS SUNDAY MAY
ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES OVER EASTERN SECTIONS SUNDAY. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE MILD TO WARM PACIFIC AIRMASS SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL DIG INTO SOUTH TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH COOL
BLUSTERY WEATHER ON TAP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              52  67  44  69  42 /  10  20  -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  53  65  37  70  35 /  20  20  -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     53  66  39  70  40 /  20  20  -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            52  63  39  67  37 /  10  10   0  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           52  66  41  70  42 /  10  10   0  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        51  65  42  67  40 /  10  10  -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             54  67  38  70  38 /  10  20  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        52  66  39  68  40 /  20  20  -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   54  66  40  64  39 /  30  40  -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       55  66  40  68  41 /  20  20  -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           55  67  41  72  40 /  20  30  -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

18/04

000
FXUS64 KSJT 232344 AAA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
544 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING QUICKLY SOUTH INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND IT AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. CURRENTLY...BEHIND THE FRONT...NORTH
WINDS ARE SUSTAINED AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS OR SO.
WILL TEMPER SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS AT AREA TAF SITES AS SOME OF
THE MIXING ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT AFTER
THE SUN SETS TONIGHT WHEN THE FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH
OUR TAF SITES. EITHER WAY...A PROFOUND WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH AREA SITES...EXPECTING THE FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH KABI AROUND 9PM TONIGHT...BETWEEN 11PM AND MIDNIGHT AT
KSJT...AND AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR OUR SOUTHERN SITES. WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME MVFR/BRIEFLY IFR CIGS AT KSOA/KJCT/KBBD TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THESE CEILINGS LIFTING
AND/OR SCATTERING OUT BEFORE SUNRISE...SO WILL SHOW CEILINGS
LIFTING BY AROUND 6AM TOMORROW MORNING AT THESE SOUTHERN SITES. 20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009/

SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WILL SURGE
SOUTH THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THAT MOVED INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND IS NOW BEING SOMEWHAT
SCOURED OUT THIS AFTERNOON...WILL HEAD BACK TONIGHT. HOWEVER...FRONT
WILL PUSH IT RIGHT BACK OUT BY SUNRISE. WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT WE
EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO MAKE A PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN THIRD OR HALF
OF THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT THE FRONT SHOULD LARGELY PUSH THEM BACK
OUT OF EVEN THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY BY SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

GIVEN THE MOISTURE MOVING BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FOR LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ANY RAIN THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED AND LIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW REINFORCING
SHOTS OF COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS TO PUSH INTO WC TX
ALL THE WAY THROUGH YOUR THANKSGIVING DAY HOLIDAY. THESE SURFACE
HIGHS WILL CREATE COLD NIGHTS AND SUNNY AFTERNOONS.

LONG TERM...
BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AN UPPER TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH THE ROCKIES RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...AND A STRONGER SOUTH WIND ACROSS WC TX.

THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DEEPEN THE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF DEPICTS A
CLOSED OFF LOW THAT TRACKS FROM FAR W TX ACROSS ABILENE AND THE
BIG COUNTRY ON MONDAY. THE GFS PROGS A DEEP PROGRESSIVE OPEN
TROUGH ACROSS THE LONE STAR STATE...AND THE ENSEMBLES HAD MANY
DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WHICH TRANSLATES TO MUCH UNCERTAINTY.

THE COMBINATION OF A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH AND A STRONG COLD
FRONT COULD PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION...EVEN THE WINTRY
TYPE...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SINCE THE MODELS HAVE BEEN QUITE
INCONSISTENT LATELY BECAUSE OF THE CHANGE OF SEASONS...PLAN TO
TREND TO COLDER AND SLIGHTLY WETTER FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK AND NOT INCLUDE THE MENTION OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION JUST YET.
PLAN TO CONTINUE 10-15 POPS SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  38  61  32  65  35 /  10   0   0   0   0
SAN ANGELO  40  63  28  65  31 /  10  10   0   0   0
JUNCTION  47  62  28  66  30 /  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99

000
FXUS64 KLUB 232343
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
543 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL PASS THROUGH KLBB BEFORE
6 PM/0Z. NORTHERLY WINDS OF ABOUT 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT
30 KTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HRS AT BOTH TERMINALS
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AROUND MIDNIGHT.
THEY MAY COME BACK UP A BIT IN THE MORNING IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS/VICINITY OF KCDS BUT OVERALL WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH...FINALLY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY TUESDAY EVENING.
NO OTHER AVIATION CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009/

SHORT TERM...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
THREE HOURLY SURFACE PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 6 OR 7 MB PER
HOUR. WINDS WILL FLIRT WITH WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS THROUGH 8 PM OR SO
THIS EVENING MAINLY ACROSS TYPICALLY WINDIER NORTHERN ZONES AND MAY
HANG ON A BIT LONGER THAN THAT EVEN ACROSS ROLLING PLAINS WHERE THE
STRONGEST PUSH APPEARS HEADED. FRONT WILL BE DRY THOUGH DEWPOINTS
WILL CLIMB 10 DEGREES OR SO FOLLOWING FRONT. STILL...SOLID COOLING
MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH DECOUPLING LATER TONIGHT...
WILL DROP MOST LOWS WELL BELOW FREEZING ON THE CAPROCK. BETTER MIXED
WINDS OFF THE CAPROCK SHOULD HOLD MINIMUMS UP JUST ABOVE FREEZING
OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS. SURFACE GRADIENT RELAXES ON TUESDAY BUT
WILL STILL MIX OUT A BIT INTO LOW END BREEZY CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY
OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH A CLOSED LOW MOVING FROM EASTERN
KANSAS ACROSS MISSOURI. LOWERED MAXIMUMS SLIGHTLY TUESDAY
SUPPORTED BY SOMEWHAT STRONGER COLD ADVECTION VIA CURRENT MODEL
RUNS. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
RATHER TRANQUIL WEATHER IS IN STORE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...THOUGH THINGS MAY TURN INTERESTING BY LATE IN THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A
S/W RIDGE QUICKLY TRAVERSE THE REGION FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. EARLY ON...WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE A
CHILLY ONE...WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. STILL...THE DRY AIR WILL PROMOTE A QUICK RECOVERY WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 60S FOR MOST BY AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH MINIMAL EFFECTS.

WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A SFC TROUGH
DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES UNDER STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ATTEMPT TO
MAKE A BRIEF APPEARANCE...THOUGH LIKELY BEING WHISKED EASTWARD BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE GUSTY WINDS...MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

BEYOND THAT...EYES TURN TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH A VARIETY OF POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS REMAIN
POSSIBLE AT THIS STAGE...THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT THAT SOME FORM OF
A TROUGH OR CLOSED LOW WILL PASS ON MONDAY. DEPENDING ON THE
EVENTUALLY OUTCOME...THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING A DECENT SHOT AT
PRECIPITATION...POTENTIALLY OF THE WINTRY VARIETY...LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. REGARDLESS....THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE
ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES WILL SHUNT A GOOD SHOT OF COLDER AIR
INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS...LIKELY SOMETIME ON SUNDAY. THUS...HAVE
TRENDED TEMPERATURES COOLER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND ALSO BUMPED UP
POPS TO MENTIONABLE LEVELS SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THIS STORM
SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS IT COULD HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE A MAJOR WEATHER MAKER FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE DECREASED JUST ENOUGH
TO AVOID ANY PROLONGED RED FLAG CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH A NUMBER OF
SITES AT LEAST MOMENTARILY MET WIND AND HUMIDITY REQUIREMENTS.
STILL SOME CONCERN WITH ARRIVAL OF A STRONG FAST MOVING FRONT INTO
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FRONTAL COOLING WILL HELP
INCREASE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES...
HOWEVER THE STIFF WINDS WILL STILL BE OF CONCERN. WE CONTINUE TO
ADVISE THAT ANY BURNS BE DEALT WITH USING HIGH LEVELS OF CARE...
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RECENT DRYNESS AND STATE OF CURED FUELS. RMCQUEEN

&&


.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33

000
FXUS64 KAMA 232335 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
535 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009

.AVIATION...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS THE WINDS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS WE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS IN PLACE. CURRENT
SFC WINDS STILL NEAR 20 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KNOTS. AM
CONCERNED WINDS MAY STAY GUSTY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...SO KEPT THE
WINDS UP THROUGH 02 OR 03Z...BUT SHOULD THEN SEE WINDS FALL TO AROUND
15 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...STRONG LL JET WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT WITH 40 TO 50 KNOTS WINDS OFF THE SURFACE SO WAS CONCERNED
LLWS MAY BE AN ISSUE AFTER 09Z. ONLY MITIGATING FACTOR WILL BE THE
GENLY UNIFORM WIND DIRECTION AS THE SFC AND LOWER LEVELS SHOULD BE
BLOWING FROM THE NORTH. WENT ON THE CAUTIOUS SIDE AGAIN AND INSERTED
LLWS REMARKS THROUGH 15 OR 16Z...BUT THEN ANTICIPATE THE LL JET
WEAKENING AND STRONG SURFACE WINDS DEVELOPING FOR THE REST OF THE TAF.

JJB


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009/

DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE I 40 CORRIDOR. THIS SHOULD PUSH
THE REST OF THE WAY THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS. BEHIND
THE FRONT...WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 40KT AT TIMES. DESPITE THE
COLDER AIR MASS ADVECTING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...BREEZY WINDS WILL
LEAD TO ENHANCED MIXING...LEADING TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AS THE
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH...AND WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY TOMORROW NIGHT.

THIS CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS...AND DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL REMAIN THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES FOR THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY. EXPECT SOME MODIFICATION OF THE AIR MASS THROUGH THIS PERIOD
LEADING TO A MODEST WARMING TREND. BY FRIDAY...SURFACE TROUGH DIGS
SOUTH. THE TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NM STATE
LINE...LEADING TO LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND ENHANCED WARMING
ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT...FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST
DAY. COULD SEE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY. WITH THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW...WILL GET SOME MUCH NEEDED MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM.

NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK TO AFFECT THE REGION LATE
IN THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
MORNING ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF...BUT MORE LIKELY WON`T ARRIVE UNTIL
LATER ON SATURDAY...ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES
THE ROCKIES. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW PRECIPITATION OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY AND/OR SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE MODELS NOW SHOWING AT
LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...AND
COMING CLOSER INTO AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM...HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED MOSTLY RAIN SUNDAY CHANGING TO MOSTLY SNOW
SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...IF THE COLD AIR MASS IS AS DEEP AS
THE GFS IS SHOWING...THE PRECIPITATION MAY BE MOSTLY SNOW.

SJOHNSON

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO HOURS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. ONCE THE FRONT REACHES THESE
LOCATIONS HOWEVER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD RAPIDLY
RECOVER...THOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
BY TOMORROW...COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION...AS A RESULT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

SJOHNSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/11

000
FXUS64 KHGX 232333
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
533 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM LAWTON OK TO LUBBOCK TEXAS AND WAS
PUSHING SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT WILL APPRAOCH CLL AROUND 12Z...IAH
AROUND 14Z AND THE COAST AROUND 16-17Z. DEEPEST MOISTURE IS
CONFINED TO THE COAST...SO FEEL BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG
THE FRONT AS IT NEARS THE COAST. COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AS WINDS DECOUPLE. SLOW CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT BUT
MAINLY VFR AFTER 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER NICE AFTN ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID
70S AND JUST SOME SCATTERED CU. ONSHORE FLOW HAS ALLOWED DEWPOINTS
TO RECOVER TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
AGAIN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
AND A BIT STRONGER MIXING IN THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD PRECLUDE THE
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG SEEN THIS MORNING. WATER VAPER IMAGERY SHOWS
THE UPPER LOW OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTN. ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT NOW ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE WILL MOVE ACROSS SE TX
TUESDAY. GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE NAM TIMING ON THE FRONT WHICH IS
MAYBE JUST A COUPLE HOURS SLOWER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. FRONT
SHOULD REACH NW ZONES 12-14Z...CROSS HOUSTON METRO 15-17Z AND PUSH
OFF THE COAST 18-19Z. AS MENTIONED BEFORE BOTH MOISTURE RETURN AND
JET DYNAMICS ARE GOING TO BE FAIRLY UNIMPRESSIVE WITH THIS EVENT.
STILL...EXPECT PWS OF 1.2-1.4 INCHES TO POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LIFT ALONG THE FRONT WILL GENERATE SCATTERED -SHRA WITH SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE SOUTH. BEST PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE OVER
THE COASTAL AREAS/SW ZONES WHERE BEST MOISTURE IS IN PLACE. RAIN
SHOULD END BY MID AFTN MOST AREAS FOLLOWED BY RAPID CLEARING.
PRECIP TOTALS WILL BE LIGHT...AVERAGING 1/4 INCH IN MOST SPOTS.
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS SE TX TUE NIGHT/WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN
CLEAR/COOL CONDITIONS. LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN
STATES WHICH WILL PUSH A DRY REINFORCING FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
THANKSGIVING DAY. EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF COOL/DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THANKSGIVING WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S.
THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE THE COOLEST NIGHT AS SFC HIGH SETTLES
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. HAVE LOWERED MINS THIS PERIOD WITH MANY INLAND
LOCATIONS INCLUDING HOUSTON POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S
AND A LIGHT FREEZE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE NE ZONES. WE
ARE OVERDUE FOR THIS SINCE THIS NORMALLY HAPPENS FOR THE FIRST
TIME IN MID NOVEMBER.

FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL LATE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW ONSHORE FLOW
TO BECOME REESTABLISHED LATE FRIDAY...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE LEVELS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND. 12Z
ECMWF SHOWS A DECENT SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA FRI
NIGHT/SATURDAY SO HAVE ADDED 20 POPS TO THE FCST. LATEST RUNS OF
THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE PATTERN CHANGE
EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH MODELS INDICATE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE SRN
ROCKIES LATE WEEKEND...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER
TEXAS. DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD TAP INTO SOME DEEP GULF
MOISTURE AND DRAW IT NORTH INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY. A LEAD
DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY. MODELS ARE FORECASTING
IMPRESSIVE JET DYNAMICS (120 KT JET STREAK AT 300 MB) SO SOME
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS SE TX MONDAY AS THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH LIFTS THROUGH THE PLAINS.

35

AVIATION...
ANOTHER BOUT OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT/EARLY TUES AS WAA CONT-
INUES TO DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN. AS OPPOSED TO LAST NIGHT WE COULD SEE
MORE LOW CLOUDS THAN FOG TONIGHT...ALONG WITH THE STRAY -SHRA (ESP-
ECIALLY FOR SITES CLOSER TO THE COAST: LBX GLS SGR).OTHERWISE WILL
LIKELY KEEP WITH GOING FROPA TIMES (I.E. CLL@15-17Z IAH@17-19Z GLS
@20-22Z). ALSO NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT OF PCPN WITH FROPA AS THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE.  41

MARINE...
FAIRLY CALM CONDITIONS TONIGHT/MOST OF TOMORROW AS A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW PRECEDES THE NEXT COLD FRONT. MODELS STILL A BIT WAFFLEY WITH
FROPA TIMING AS THE GFS CONTINUES TO RUN A BIT FASTER THAN THE NAM.
BUT MODERATE/STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS EXPECTED FOR ALL OF OUR COASTAL
WATERS/BAYS BY TOMORROW NIGHT. SCA LIKELY TO RUN THROUGH WEDS AFTN
OR SO. A MORE LIGHT/MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN THEN ON TAP FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. THE
HIGH WILL EDGE EAST OF THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR THE RE-
TURN OF ONSHORE WINDS AT THAT TIME.  41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      54  63  43  65  41 /  30  40  10   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              58  65  45  65  43 /  20  50  10   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            64  71  53  65  52 /  20  60  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...43

000
FXUS64 KMAF 232327
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
527 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNS FOR THE EVENING REVOLVE AROUND COLD FRONT MOVING S THRU
THRU ER NM/W TX PLAINS. WINDS HAVE TURNED NW AT KHOB ALREADY AND
WINDS AT CNM/MAF/INK SHOULD FOLLOW SUIT BY 01Z THEN N-NE THRU
MOST OF THE NIGHT. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO NEAR 20KTS BUT
ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT BY 12Z SPEEDS SHOULD BE 10KT OR LESS.
VERY DRY AIRMASS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO TUE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 217 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009/

DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE PANHANDLES
AND WILL BE IN THE PERMIAN BASIN THIS EVENING. I AM A BIT
CONCERNED WITH STRONG NORTHEAST GAP WINDS AT GDP TONIGHT BUT MODEL
DATA IS SHOWING IT JUST BELOW CRITERIA SO WILL NOT ISSUE A
WARNING AT THIS TIME. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE GUSTY BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH BY TOMORROW MORNING. AT OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CAN
THEN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THANKSGIVING AS THE COOL AIR IN PLACE
GETS A COUPLE OF REINFORCING SHOTS THROUGH THE WEEK.

WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST AS THE HIGH CENTER SETTLES
ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING NEARLY CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TUESDAY BUT ANOTHER WEAK
FRONT WILL COOL THURSDAY OFF SLIGHTLY. THE END OF THE WEEK WILL
SEE THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WESTERLY ZONAL
FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A DEEPENING WESTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH.

MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THE TIMING OF THE UPPER TROUGH
THOUGH THEY DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH. THE GFS IS INDICATING A MORE
OPEN TROUGH WITH A WEAK CIRCULATION AT ITS BASE MOVING ACROSS WEST
TEXAS. MOST OTHER MODELS ARE SHOWING A CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH THE
12Z ECMWF STRONG ENOUGH TO HOLD MOISTURE WEST BRINGING PRECIP TO
THE AREA. I AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH PRECIP AT THIS
TIME...BUT SHOULD TRENDS CONTINUE THERE MAY BE WINTRY WEATHER TO
DEAL WITH EARLY NEXT WEEK SO THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO GARNER MOST
OF THE ATTENTION FOR FUTURE SHIFTS.

HENNIG

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KFWD 232320 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
520 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF PACKAGE
A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE AT ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AROUND 08-09Z.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING WITH WIND SPEEDS
DECREASING BY 01Z. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 05Z
TONIGHT BUT SKIES SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR OUT AS THE FRONT PASSES.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 13-15 KTS WILL OCCUR AFTER FROPA BUT
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY TO 15-17 KTS GUSTING UP TO 25
KTS. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN ALONG THE FRONT IS MINIMAL AND HAVE
REMOVED THE MENTION FROM THE TAFS.

82/JLD

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009/
A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS SOUTH INTO WEST TEXAS...WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. AS
THE FRONT COLD FRONT APPROACHES...WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES INTO
THE REGION...BUT THIS FOG SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED...AND HAVE NOT
MENTIONED IT IN THE ZONES. SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE EAST INTO TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FROM WHAT WE HAVE
BEEN FORECASTING FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH BELOW SEASONAL
NORMAL LOWS AND NEAR NORMAL HIGHS. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER
REINFORCEMENT OF COOL/COLD AIR THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. WE WILL ENTER A WET PERIOD STARTING SATURDAY
NIGHT THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A
STRONG TROUGH DIGS INTO THE ROCKIES AND THEN MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. WE WILL SEE A SEE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH COLD RAIN CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS ESPECIALLY FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BUT THIS IS AT THE
END OR JUST PAST THE END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST.

58

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  46  65  38  66  38 /  20   5   0   0   5
WACO, TX              48  67  38  68  37 /  20  10   0   0   5
PARIS, TX             46  62  36  63  37 /  30  20   5   0   5
DENTON, TX            44  65  33  66  34 /  20   5   0   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX          47  65  33  65  34 /  20   5   0   0   5
DALLAS, TX            49  65  41  67  41 /  20   5   0   0   5
TERRELL, TX           49  65  39  65  38 /  30  10   0   0   5
CORSICANA, TX         46  65  39  65  40 /  30  10   0   0   5
TEMPLE, TX            51  67  39  68  37 /  20  10   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/92

000
FXUS64 KFWD 232151
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
351 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS SOUTH INTO WEST TEXAS...WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. AS
THE FRONT COLD FRONT APPROACHES...WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES INTO
THE REGION...BUT THIS FOG SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED...AND HAVE NOT
MENTIONED IT IN THE ZONES. SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE EAST INTO TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FROM WHAT WE HAVE
BEEN FORECASTING FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH BELOW SEASONAL
NORMAL LOWS AND NEAR NORMAL HIGHS. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER
REINFORCEMENT OF COOL/COLD AIR THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. WE WILL ENTER A WET PERIOD STARTING SATURDAY
NIGHT THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A
STRONG TROUGH DIGS INTO THE ROCKIES AND THEN MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. WE WILL SEE A SEE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH COLD RAIN CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS ESPECIALLY FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BUT THIS IS AT THE
END OR JUST PAST THE END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST.

58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  46  65  38  66  38 /  20   5   0   0   5
WACO, TX              48  67  38  68  37 /  20  10   0   0   5
PARIS, TX             46  62  36  63  37 /  30  20   5   0   5
DENTON, TX            44  65  33  66  34 /  20   5   0   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX          47  65  33  65  34 /  20   5   0   0   5
DALLAS, TX            49  65  41  67  41 /  20   5   0   0   5
TERRELL, TX           49  65  39  65  38 /  30  10   0   0   5
CORSICANA, TX         46  65  39  65  40 /  30  10   0   0   5
TEMPLE, TX            51  67  39  68  37 /  20  10   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

84/58

000
FXUS64 KLUB 232129
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
329 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009

.SHORT TERM...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
THREE HOURLY SURFACE PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 6 OR 7 MB PER
HOUR. WINDS WILL FLIRT WITH WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS THROUGH 8 PM OR SO
THIS EVENING MAINLY ACROSS TYPICALLY WINDIER NORTHERN ZONES AND MAY
HANG ON A BIT LONGER THAN THAT EVEN ACROSS ROLLING PLAINS WHERE THE
STRONGEST PUSH APPEARS HEADED. FRONT WILL BE DRY THOUGH DEWPOINTS
WILL CLIMB 10 DEGREES OR SO FOLLOWING FRONT. STILL...SOLID COOLING
MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH DECOUPLING LATER TONIGHT...
WILL DROP MOST LOWS WELL BELOW FREEZING ON THE CAPROCK. BETTER MIXED
WINDS OFF THE CAPROCK SHOULD HOLD MINIMUMS UP JUST ABOVE FREEZING
OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS. SURFACE GRADIENT RELAXES ON TUESDAY BUT
WILL STILL MIX OUT A BIT INTO LOW END BREEZY CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY
OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH A CLOSED LOW MOVING FROM EASTERN
KANSAS ACROSS MISSOURI. LOWERED MAXIMUMS SLIGHTLY TUESDAY
SUPPORTED BY SOMEWHAT STRONGER COLD ADVECTION VIA CURRENT MODEL
RUNS. RMCQUEEN

&&

.LONG TERM...
RATHER TRANQUIL WEATHER IS IN STORE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...THOUGH THINGS MAY TURN INTERESTING BY LATE IN THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A
S/W RIDGE QUICKLY TRAVERSE THE REGION FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. EARLY ON...WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE A
CHILLY ONE...WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. STILL...THE DRY AIR WILL PROMOTE A QUICK RECOVERY WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 60S FOR MOST BY AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH MINIMAL EFFECTS.

WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A SFC TROUGH
DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES UNDER STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ATTEMPT TO
MAKE A BRIEF APPEARANCE...THOUGH LIKELY BEING WHISKED EASTWARD BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE GUSTY WINDS...MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

BEYOND THAT...EYES TURN TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH A VARIETY OF POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS REMAIN
POSSIBLE AT THIS STAGE...THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT THAT SOME FORM OF
A TROUGH OR CLOSED LOW WILL PASS ON MONDAY. DEPENDING ON THE
EVENTUALLY OUTCOME...THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING A DECENT SHOT AT
PRECIPITATION...POTENTIALLY OF THE WINTRY VARIETY...LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. REGARDLESS....THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE
ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES WILL SHUNT A GOOD SHOT OF COLDER AIR
INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS...LIKELY SOMETIME ON SUNDAY. THUS...HAVE
TRENDED TEMPERATURES COOLER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND ALSO BUMPED UP
POPS TO MENTIONABLE LEVELS SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THIS STORM
SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS IT COULD HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE A MAJOR WEATHER MAKER FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE DECREASED JUST ENOUGH
TO AVOID ANY PROLONGED RED FLAG CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH A NUMBER OF
SITES AT LEAST MOMENTARILY MET WIND AND HUMIDITY REQUIREMENTS.
STILL SOME CONCERN WITH ARRIVAL OF A STRONG FAST MOVING FRONT INTO
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FRONTAL COOLING WILL HELP
INCREASE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES...
HOWEVER THE STIFF WINDS WILL STILL BE OF CONCERN. WE CONTINUE TO
ADVISE THAT ANY BURNS BE DEALT WITH USING HIGH LEVELS OF CARE...
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RECENT DRYNESS AND STATE OF CURED FUELS. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        24  55  20  55  22 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         27  56  20  59  24 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     27  56  21  60  24 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     26  57  20  61  22 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       30  58  24  62  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   27  57  24  61  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    28  57  24  62  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     34  61  28  63  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          34  60  23  66  24 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     37  62  26  66  26 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/23

000
FXUS64 KCRP 232119
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
319 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM IS THE FRONT...TIMING AND RAIN WITH IT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW LESS INSTABILITY (LOWER CAPE/HIGHER CINS) PRE-FRONTAL...WITH
BEST INSTABILITY OVER THE GULF WATERS. GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION IS
FORECAST TONIGHT (ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING) IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER/MID
LEVELS...SO DECIDED TO KICK UP POPS A BIT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS...WITH ONLY MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE GULF AND NEAR THE
COAST (SLIGHT CHANCE INLAND). FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN
AREAS NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z...GOING THROUGH VICTORIA AROUND
13Z...LAREDO 14Z...KCRP 16Z AND NEAR THE COAST BY 18Z. MODELS KEEP
RAIN GOING AND THINK MOST OF THIS WILL BE SHOWERY (EXCEPT IN
GULF AND NEAR COAST)...SO INCREASED POPS (UP TO 80) FOR THE EXTREME
EAST WITH LOWER VALUES NORTH AND WEST (AND HIGHEST IN THE
MORNING). BIG POP GRADIENT IN THE AFTERNOON AS NOT MUCH IN UPPER
FORCING SO FEEL WITH RAIN MAINLY WITH BOUNDARY RAIN SHOULD QUICKLY
TAPER OFF. NO RAIN IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT EXCEPT OFFSHORE. CLOUDS
WILL DECREASE MAINLY DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. EXPECT SOME FOG PRE-FRONTAL
OVERNIGHT BUT WITH CLOUD BLANKET TONIGHT AND A BIT BETTER WINDS IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER...DO NOT EXPECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG (PATCHY AT
BEST). PRIOR TO FRONT...WENT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE...BEHIND
FRONT ON TUESDAY ON THE LOW SIDE...WITH MAINLY BELOW GUIDANCE
NUMBERS (ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST) TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING WINDS
AND SKIES AND NNW INLAND BREEZE.

&&

.MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...EXPECT SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT THEN POSSIBLE THUNDER AFTER MIDNIGHT AS ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES UNSTABLE. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BECOMES WIDESPREAD ALONG THE
FRONT THEN DECREASES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. SCA WILL BE NEEDED
ON TUESDAY (ALL MARINE INTERESTS BEHIND THE FRONT)...POSSIBLY
ENDING FOR THE BAYS BY EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE PROCESS OF SETTLING INTO SOUTH TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY WITH A
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY. WAS LEANING TOWARD
UNDERCUTTING GUIDANCE FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THANKSGIVING
MORNING BUT MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
MOVE INTO SOUTH TEXAS AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
NORTHWEST MEXICO...THUS LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING A BIT. WENT
CLOSE TO THE COOLER NAM GUIDANCE. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO THANKSGIVING INTO
FRIDAY...AND WILL SEE ENOUGH MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FOR PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA
ON SATURDAY WITH AN DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES.
LOW PRESSURE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO INCREASED RETURN FLOW
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
LEADING TO ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS. WILL
SHOW LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR THE REGION NORTH OF I-37 FOR SUNDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO VEER TO SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ESPECIALLY THE GFS WHICH WOULD LIMIT RAIN CHANCES
UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS/ECMWF ARE SIMILAR SHOWING
THE MID/UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH ECMWF A
BIT SLOWER. MODELS SHOW STRONG COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT AND WENT 1-2
CATEGORIES BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    63  72  49  69  45  /  40  80  10   0   0
VICTORIA          55  65  43  67  40  /  30  70  10   0   0
LAREDO            61  67  48  71  48  /  20  50  10   0   0
ALICE             60  71  47  70  44  /  30  70  10   0   0
ROCKPORT          63  71  50  68  47  /  40  80  10   0   0
COTULLA           56  63  40  70  42  /  20  40  10   0   0
KINGSVILLE        63  72  48  69  43  /  40  80  10   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       66  73  53  67  50  /  40  80  10   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM
TM/95...LONG TERM

000
FXUS64 KHGX 232116
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
316 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER NICE AFTN ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID
70S AND JUST SOME SCATTERED CU. ONSHORE FLOW HAS ALLOWED DEWPOINTS
TO RECOVER TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
AGAIN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
AND A BIT STRONGER MIXING IN THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD PRECLUDE THE
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG SEEN THIS MORNING. WATER VAPER IMAGERY SHOWS
THE UPPER LOW OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTN. ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT NOW ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE WILL MOVE ACROSS SE TX
TUESDAY. GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE NAM TIMING ON THE FRONT WHICH IS
MAYBE JUST A COUPLE HOURS SLOWER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. FRONT
SHOULD REACH NW ZONES 12-14Z...CROSS HOUSTON METRO 15-17Z AND PUSH
OFF THE COAST 18-19Z. AS MENTIONED BEFORE BOTH MOISTURE RETURN AND
JET DYNAMICS ARE GOING TO BE FAIRLY UNIMPRESSIVE WITH THIS EVENT.
STILL...EXPECT PWS OF 1.2-1.4 INCHES TO POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LIFT ALONG THE FRONT WILL GENERATE SCATTERED -SHRA WITH SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE SOUTH. BEST PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE OVER
THE COASTAL AREAS/SW ZONES WHERE BEST MOISTURE IS IN PLACE. RAIN
SHOULD END BY MID AFTN MOST AREAS FOLLOWED BY RAPID CLEARING.
PRECIP TOTALS WILL BE LIGHT...AVERAGING 1/4 INCH IN MOST SPOTS.
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS SE TX TUE NIGHT/WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN
CLEAR/COOL CONDITIONS. LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN
STATES WHICH WILL PUSH A DRY REINFORCING FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
THANKSGIVING DAY. EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF COOL/DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THANKSGIVING WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S.
THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE THE COOLEST NIGHT AS SFC HIGH SETTLES
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. HAVE LOWERED MINS THIS PERIOD WITH MANY INLAND
LOCATIONS INCLUDING HOUSTON POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S
AND A LIGHT FREEZE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE NE ZONES. WE
ARE OVERDUE FOR THIS SINCE THIS NORMALLY HAPPENS FOR THE FIRST
TIME IN MID NOVEMBER.

FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL LATE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW ONSHORE FLOW
TO BECOME REESTABLISHED LATE FRIDAY...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE LEVELS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND. 12Z
ECMWF SHOWS A DECENT SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA FRI
NIGHT/SATURDAY SO HAVE ADDED 20 POPS TO THE FCST. LATEST RUNS OF
THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE PATTERN CHANGE
EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH MODELS INDICATE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE SRN
ROCKIES LATE WEEKEND...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER
TEXAS. DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD TAP INTO SOME DEEP GULF
MOISTURE AND DRAW IT NORTH INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY. A LEAD
DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY. MODELS ARE FORECASTING
IMPRESSIVE JET DYNAMICS (120 KT JET STREAK AT 300 MB) SO SOME
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS SE TX MONDAY AS THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH LIFTS THROUGH THE PLAINS.

35

&&

.AVIATION...
ANOTHER BOUT OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT/EARLY TUES AS WAA CONT-
INUES TO DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN. AS OPPOSED TO LAST NIGHT WE COULD SEE
MORE LOW CLOUDS THAN FOG TONIGHT...ALONG WITH THE STRAY -SHRA (ESP-
ECIALLY FOR SITES CLOSER TO THE COAST: LBX GLS SGR).OTHERWISE WILL
LIKELY KEEP WITH GOING FROPA TIMES (I.E. CLL@15-17Z IAH@17-19Z GLS
@20-22Z). ALSO NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT OF PCPN WITH FROPA AS THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE.  41

&&

.MARINE...
FAIRLY CALM CONDITIONS TONIGHT/MOST OF TOMORROW AS A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW PRECEDES THE NEXT COLD FRONT. MODELS STILL A BIT WAFFLEY WITH
FROPA TIMING AS THE GFS CONTINUES TO RUN A BIT FASTER THAN THE NAM.
BUT MODERATE/STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS EXPECTED FOR ALL OF OUR COASTAL
WATERS/BAYS BY TOMORROW NIGHT. SCA LIKELY TO RUN THROUGH WEDS AFTN
OR SO. A MORE LIGHT/MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN THEN ON TAP FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. THE
HIGH WILL EDGE EAST OF THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR THE RE-
TURN OF ONSHORE WINDS AT THAT TIME.  41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      54  63  43  65  41 /  30  40  10   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              58  65  45  65  43 /  20  50  10   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            64  71  53  65  52 /  20  60  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION/MARINE...41

000
FXUS64 KEWX 232103
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
303 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009

.DISCUSSION...
GULF MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON..SPREADING NORTH AND EAST THIS EVENING. THIS SURGE OF
MOISTURE IS AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY MOVING COLD FRONT SLATED TO MOVE
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS. CLEARING AND COOLER DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WITH A CAA PATTERN CONTINUING TOMORROW NIGHT..CLEAR AND COLDER
TOMORROW NIGHT. UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY..THE ANCHORED
DRY SURFACE RIDGE WILL PROMOTE SUNNY SKIES AND MILD DAYTIME TEMPS.
A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD..DRY AIR WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH A CHILLY THANKSGIVING MORNING IN STORE. SUBFREEZING TEMPERA-
TURES ARE FORECAST IN THE HILL COUNTRY THURSDAY MORNING. SUNNY
BUT COOL THANKSGIVING WITH HIGHS 65-70. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. CONTINUED MOIST ADVECTION PATTERN SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MILD WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A PACIFIC FRONT MOVING ACROSS SUNDAY MAY
ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES OVER EASTERN SECTIONS SUNDAY. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE MILD TO WARM PACIFIC AIRMASS SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL DIG INTO SOUTH TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH COOL
BLUSTERY WEATHER ON TAP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              52  67  44  69  42 /  10  20  -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  53  65  37  70  35 /  20  20  -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     53  66  39  70  40 /  20  20  -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            52  63  39  67  37 /  10  10   0  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           52  66  41  70  42 /  10  10   0  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        51  65  42  67  40 /  10  10  -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             54  67  38  70  38 /  10  20  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        52  66  39  68  40 /  20  20  -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   54  66  40  64  39 /  30  40  -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       55  66  40  68  41 /  20  20  -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           55  67  41  72  40 /  20  30  -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

02/26

000
FXUS64 KSJT 232055
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
255 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009

.SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WILL SURGE
SOUTH THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THAT MOVED INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND IS NOW BEING SOMEWHAT
SCOURED OUT THIS AFTERNOON...WILL HEAD BACK TONIGHT. HOWEVER...FRONT
WILL PUSH IT RIGHT BACK OUT BY SUNRISE. WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT WE
EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO MAKE A PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN THIRD OR HALF
OF THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT THE FRONT SHOULD LARGELY PUSH THEM BACK
OUT OF EVEN THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY BY SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

GIVEN THE MOISTURE MOVING BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FOR LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ANY RAIN THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED AND LIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW REINFORCING
SHOTS OF COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS TO PUSH INTO WC TX
ALL THE WAY THROUGH YOUR THANKSGIVING DAY HOLIDAY. THESE SURFACE
HIGHS WILL CREATE COLD NIGHTS AND SUNNY AFTERNOONS.

.LONG TERM...
BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AN UPPER TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH THE ROCKIES RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...AND A STRONGER SOUTH WIND ACROSS WC TX.

THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DEEPEN THE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF DEPICTS A
CLOSED OFF LOW THAT TRACKS FROM FAR W TX ACROSS ABILENE AND THE
BIG COUNTRY ON MONDAY. THE GFS PROGS A DEEP PROGRESSIVE OPEN
TROUGH ACROSS THE LONE STAR STATE...AND THE ENSEMBLES HAD MANY
DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WHICH TRANSLATES TO MUCH UNCERTAINTY.

THE COMBINATION OF A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH AND A STRONG COLD
FRONT COULD PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION...EVEN THE WINTRY
TYPE...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SINCE THE MODELS HAVE BEEN QUITE
INCONSISTENT LATELY BECAUSE OF THE CHANGE OF SEASONS...PLAN TO
TREND TO COLDER AND SLIGHTLY WETTER FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK AND NOT INCLUDE THE MENTION OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION JUST YET.
PLAN TO CONTINUE 10-15 POPS SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  38  61  32  65  35 /  10   0   0   0   0
SAN ANGELO  40  63  28  65  31 /  10  10   0   0   0
JUNCTION  47  62  28  66  30 /  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/26

000
FXUS64 KEPZ 232035
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
135 PM MST MON NOV 23 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN
TEXAS TONIGHT AND THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLY COOL DAYS AND COLD NIGHTS
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WINDS MAY INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RATHER STRONG UPPER TROUGH WAS MOVING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD
INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD
MOVEMENT THROUGH TONIGHT AND SHOULD ADVANCE ACROSS THE CWA
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL INDUCE
EASTERLY FLOW WITH ADVECTION OF CANADIAN AIR LOWERING TOMORROWS
HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES. OTHERWISE GIVEN THE LANDWARD FLOW
TRAJECTORIES EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY CIRCULATION PATTERN BECOMES MORE COMPLEX AS
SPLIT FLOW EVOLVES OVER THE WEST. UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NORTHERN BRANCH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE
ROCKIES WHILE BROAD BUT WEAK UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERLY STREAM DRIFTS
ACROSS BAJA AND NORTHERN MEXICO. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW
MAY TRANSPORT HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IN AT LEAST SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA RESULTING IN SOME INCREASE IN HIGHER CLOUDS. OTHERWISE
RIDGE DYNAMICS AND SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL RESULTING IN CONTINUED
DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

LATER PERIODS SHOW CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY. UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON SATURDAY BRINGING SOME INCREASE IN WESTERLY
WINDS WITH ANOTHER SEASONABLY WARM DRY DAY. HOWEVER ECMWF PERSISTS
IN MOVING DEEP COLD CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE CWA. BOTH THE GFS
AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE A WEAKER FASTER MOVING DRIER SYSTEM
WHILE THE ENSEMBLES INDICATE WIDE VARIATION OF POSSIBLE OUTCOMES.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...INCONSISTENCIES ETC WILL CONTINUE WITH
DRY OUTLOOK WITH MORE CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 24/00Z-25/00Z...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH SKC - SCT250 THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY WNW
FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL. A DRY SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT AFT 06Z. SFC WINDS 00Z-06Z
270-330/13G23KT BECOMING AFT 06Z FROPA 03010G20KT WITH ISOLD GUSTS
30 TO 35 KTS WEST SLOPES/PASSES AND  LGT/OCNL MDT TURBC PSBL WEST
FACING SLOPES UNTIL 18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
SURFACE LOW PRESS OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL INDUCE OCCASIONAL
WESTERLY BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TODAY. A COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT DROPPING TEMPERATURES
OVER THE FIRE WEATHER ZONES AROUND 10 DEG F TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM BACK TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE WINDS GRADUALLY TURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST. AT THIS TIME NO STORMS/PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED UNTIL
AROUND THE END OF THE MONTH. MIN HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 13% TO 18% AREA WIDE TODAY BECOMING ABOUT 5% HIGHER OVR THE
ZONES BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 39  60  34  63  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA TX        33  58  28  60  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              36  59  31  63  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              33  57  29  60  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              21  45  16  48  19 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   32  57  28  60  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             30  55  24  58  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  35  59  30  62  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               34  60  30  63  32 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH/20 NOVLAN

000
FXUS64 KAMA 232030
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
230 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009

.DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE I 40 CORRIDOR. THIS SHOULD PUSH
THE REST OF THE WAY THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS. BEHIND
THE FRONT...WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 40KT AT TIMES. DESPITE THE
COLDER AIR MASS ADVECTING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...BREEZY WINDS WILL
LEAD TO ENHANCED MIXING...LEADING TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AS THE
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH...AND WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY TOMORROW NIGHT.

THIS CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS...AND DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL REMAIN THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES FOR THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY. EXPECT SOME MODIFICATION OF THE AIR MASS THROUGH THIS PERIOD
LEADING TO A MODEST WARMING TREND. BY FRIDAY...SURFACE TROUGH DIGS
SOUTH. THE TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NM STATE
LINE...LEADING TO LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND ENHANCED WARMING
ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT...FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST
DAY. COULD SEE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY. WITH THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW...WILL GET SOME MUCH NEEDED MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM.

NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK TO AFFECT THE REGION LATE
IN THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
MORNING ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF...BUT MORE LIKELY WON`T ARRIVE UNTIL
LATER ON SATURDAY...ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES
THE ROCKIES. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW PRECIPITATION OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY AND/OR SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE MODELS NOW SHOWING AT
LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...AND
COMING CLOSER INTO AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM...HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED MOSTLY RAIN SUNDAY CHANGING TO MOSTLY SNOW
SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...IF THE COLD AIR MASS IS AS DEEP AS
THE GFS IS SHOWING...THE PRECIPITATION MAY BE MOSTLY SNOW.

SJOHNSON
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO HOURS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. ONCE THE FRONT REACHES THESE
LOCATIONS HOWEVER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD RAPIDLY
RECOVER...THOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
BY TOMORROW...COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION...AS A RESULT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

SJOHNSON
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                29  54  22  52  25 /   0   0   0   5   0
BEAVER OK                  28  56  20  51  24 /  10   0   0   5   0
BOISE CITY OK              24  53  22  51  25 /   0   0   0   5   0
BORGER TX                  32  55  28  54  29 /   0   0   0   5   0
BOYS RANCH TX              28  57  16  54  20 /   0   0   0   5   0
CANYON TX                  27  56  13  54  23 /   0   0   0   5   0
CLARENDON TX               33  56  25  56  30 /   0   0   0   5   0
DALHART TX                 24  54  17  51  19 /   0   0   0   5   0
GUYMON OK                  28  53  21  54  24 /   5   0   0   5   0
HEREFORD TX                25  55  14  55  24 /   0   0   0   5   0
LIPSCOMB TX                32  54  21  53  25 /  10   0   0   5   0
PAMPA TX                   33  51  29  52  31 /   0   0   0   5   0
SHAMROCK TX                36  57  29  59  30 /   0   0   0   5   0
WELLINGTON TX              37  59  32  60  31 /   0   0   0   5   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/16

000
FXUS64 KMAF 232017
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
217 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009

.DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE PANHANDLES
AND WILL BE IN THE PERMIAN BASIN THIS EVENING. I AM A BIT
CONCERNED WITH STRONG NORTHEAST GAP WINDS AT GDP TONIGHT BUT MODEL
DATA IS SHOWING IT JUST BELOW CRITERIA SO WILL NOT ISSUE A
WARNING AT THIS TIME. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE GUSTY BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH BY TOMORROW MORNING. AT OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CAN
THEN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THANKSGIVING AS THE COOL AIR IN PLACE
GETS A COUPLE OF REINFORCING SHOTS THROUGH THE WEEK.

WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST AS THE HIGH CENTER SETTLES
ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING NEARLY CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TUESDAY BUT ANOTHER WEAK
FRONT WILL COOL THURSDAY OFF SLIGHTLY. THE END OF THE WEEK WILL
SEE THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WESTERLY ZONAL
FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A DEEPENING WESTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH.

MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THE TIMING OF THE UPPER TROUGH
THOUGH THEY DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH. THE GFS IS INDICATING A MORE
OPEN TROUGH WITH A WEAK CIRCULATION AT ITS BASE MOVING ACROSS WEST
TEXAS. MOST OTHER MODELS ARE SHOWING A CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH THE
12Z ECMWF STRONG ENOUGH TO HOLD MOISTURE WEST BRINGING PRECIP TO
THE AREA. I AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH PRECIP AT THIS
TIME...BUT SHOULD TRENDS CONTINUE THERE MAY BE WINTRY WEATHER TO
DEAL WITH EARLY NEXT WEEK SO THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO GARNER MOST
OF THE ATTENTION FOR FUTURE SHIFTS.

HENNIG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              32  59  27  63  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                29  56  24  64  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  43  59  34  64  /   0  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           36  59  31  65  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          32  57  28  62  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   27  59  25  61  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   27  57  17  62  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    29  58  24  63  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  31  59  25  63  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    29  61  25  66  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

01/10

000
FXUS64 KBRO 231949
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
149 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009

.DISCUSSION...THICK DECK OF ALTOCUMULUS PROGRESSIVELY SPREADING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS RIGHT NOW. ALSO...DECENT
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST OF TAMAULIPAS
ROUGHLY 125 MILES SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE...MOVING NORTH AT AROUND 25
MILES PER HOUR...WITH LIGHTER RAIN ACTIVITY OVER INLAND TAMAULIPAS
...ALSO MOVING IN OUR GENERAL DIRECTION. THIS RAINFALL MAY AFFECT
THE BRO CWFA THROUGH TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH IS
PROGGED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY DURING THE MORNING
HOURS OF TUESDAY. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR TOMORROW WILL LIKELY BE
ACHIEVED EARLY IN THE MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES THEN FALLING TO
THE MID AND UPPER 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON. STORM PREDICTION CENTER
STILL NOT ANTICIPATING ANY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH OUR
FRONTAL PASSAGE DUE TO LACK OF SHEAR...BUT REGULAR THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ANTICIPATED. PRECIPITATION RAPIDLY ENDS TOMORROW EVENING AND
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH PLEASANT WEATHER AND
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ONLY CONCERN IN THAT TIME FRAME MAY BE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...TOO WEAK TO BE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...
BUT PERHAPS STRONG ENOUGH TO ENHANCE OUR WILDFIRE DANGER...UNLESS
COPIOUS RAINFALL OCCURS AS FORECAST WITH THE COLD FRONT TOMORROW.
MORE VIGOROUS COLD FRONT STILL PROGGED BY LONG RANGE MODELS TO
PASS THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT LACK OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE MAY CONFINE RAINFALL TO THE GULF OF MEXICO
WATERS EAST OF PADRE ISLAND.
&&

.MARINE...BUOY 020 REPORTS LIGHT EAST WINDS...AND SEAS AROUND TWO
FEET EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO PRESSURE FALLS TO THE NORTHWEST...
WITH EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT...WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE LAGUNA MADRE.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS MID TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINGING NORTH WINDS OF AROUND 25 KNOTS AND HIGHER
GUSTS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND GULF SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 9 FEET TUESDAY EVENING.
FRONTAL TIMING IS NOW A FEW HOURS LATER THAN BEFORE. GUSTY WINDS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM 15 TO 20 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE AREA. FOLLOW UP HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY WILL KEEP
GULF WINDS IN THE MODERATE TO FRESH RANGE. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND
VEER TO SOUTHEAST NEXT FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD SHIFTS EAST
AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS UPSTREAM. CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WILL BE
MODERATE WITH WINDS PICKING UP IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGER ON SUNDAY...FROM THE SOUTH...EVEN REACHING 20 KNOTS WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THE NEXT FRONT IS FORECAST
FOR NEXT MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDS ARE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH. BKN MID LEVEL DECKS HAVE FORMED. HIGHER DEWPOINTS
WILL SET UP A FOG SCENARIO OVERNIGHT AS WINDS DROP OFF. ISOLATED
SHOWERS MOVING ASHORE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
TUESDAY A.M....WITH AREA THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  68  73  58  69 /  40  70  10   0
BROWNSVILLE          68  74  58  72 /  40  70  10   0
HARLINGEN            67  76  55  72 /  40  70  10   0
MCALLEN              67  74  54  71 /  30  70  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      67  69  53  70 /  20  60  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   69  74  58  69 /  40  70  10   0
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TOMASELLI-66
MARINE/AVIATION...MILLER-54
MESO/UPPER AIR...MARTINEZ

000
FXUS64 KSJT 231813
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1213 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009

.UPDATE...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE JUST ABOUT DISSIPATED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS THIS MORNING. WHATS LEFT OF IT WILL ERODE OUT OF THE AREA
AROUND SONORA...KSOA...WITHIN THE HOUR. VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AT 18Z TODAY WILL MOVE
THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT. TIMING OF THE FRONT INTO
KABI AND KSJT...JUST BEFORE AND JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT RESPECTIVELY... WILL
PROBABLY KEEP ANY LOW CLOUDS FROM MOVING BACK INTO THOSE AREAS.
HOWEVER...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS WITH CIGS AROUND 1500 FEET TO SURGE
NORTH BACK INTO THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY AND THE NORTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES SOUTH...LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR BACK OUT OF
THOSE AREAS SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU WILL EXPAND
NORTH INTO ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
EARLY THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS. CLOUD CEILINGS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LIFR
CATEGORY...AND VISIBILITY COULD DROP INTO THE IFR OR LIFR AT
TIMES. THE CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DISSIPATE AROUND MID-MORNING...
WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10-15 KT...AND
SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED AT THE KABI AND KSJT TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT. PER THE MODEL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS...LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT...AND EXPECT CEILINGS TO MOSTLY BE IN
THE MVFR CATEGORY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009/

SHORT TERM...
GOES 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FOG AND SOME LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE BIG COUNTRY. OTHER PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING JUST SOUTHWEST OF CROCKETT COUNTY. TAKING INTO
ACCOUNT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND CURRENT SURFACE DEWPOINTS...HAVE
EXPANDED THE PATCHY FOG MENTION TO INCLUDE THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
BIG COUNTRY EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE INTO THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF OUR AREA DURING THE EARLY
MORNING.

A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. WARMER 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING
EFFECTS AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT WILL FAVOR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.

UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL DIG INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. PER THE LOW-LEVEL MODEL
MOISTURE FIELDS...LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA ROUGHLY SOUTHEAST OF A BROWNWOOD TO MERTZON LINE TONIGHT...
AS THE FRONT MOVES DOWN INTO THE AREA. LEE TROUGHING AND A
SLIGHTLY INCREASED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT HIGHER
WIND SPEEDS TODAY. WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTH...AND WINDS MAY BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY FOR A FEW HOURS
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

LONG TERM...
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY
TUESDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONLY MANAGE TO REACH THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S AS LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. THE
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN SUSTAINED NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE SUBSIDING LATE. CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH
LIGHT SFC WINDS AND THE VERY DRY LOW LEVELS WILL RESULT IN
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TUE NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S AREAWIDE. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME MID 20S IN SOME OF THE LOWER LYING AREAS IF
SFC WINDS ARE ABLE TO FULLY DECOUPLE.

VERY PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. EXITING SHORT WAVE ON TUE WILL MOVE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY WED WITH A MUCH STRONGER WAVE DIVING SE FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST ON WED...THEN INTO THE TENN VALLEY ON THU.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEP TROUGH BEING CARVED OUT ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS WITH A STRONG UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS
THROUGH SAT WILL BE IN THE 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S BOTH
WED AND THU THEN UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S BY SAT.

FORECAST BECOMES MORE OF A CHALLENGE LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
THE SOUTHWEST STATES OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH COULD BEGIN AFFECTING
OUR WEATHER SUN INTO MON OF NEXT WEEK. CURSORY LOOK AT THE 06Z
GFS SHOWS THAT IT MAY BE TRENDING TOWARDS THE 00Z ECMWF WITH A
CLOSED LOW FORMING OVER ARIZONA LATE SUN BUT TIMING/STRENGTH
ISSUES CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM. BOTH SHOW A COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE AREA ON SUN WITH SOME PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT
POPS OVER THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH
SUN INTO MON AND TRENDED TOWARDS LOWER TEMPERATURES ON MON WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. LATEST MEX NUMBERS NOW SHOWING MID 50S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  77  38  61  32  65 /   0  10   0   0   0
SAN ANGELO  78  40  63  28  65 /   0  10  10   0   0
JUNCTION  76  47  62  28  66 /   0  20  10   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07

000
FXUS64 KEWX 231807
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1207 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009

.AVIATION...
SCT TO BKN CLOUDS AROUND 2 THSD TO 3 THSD FT ALONG AND
EAST OF A KERV TO KHDO LINE...WITH CIGS 1 THSD TO 3 THSD
BKN AND VSBYS OCNLLY 5 MI IN FOG WEST OF A KERV TO KHDO
LINE TO THE RIO GRANDE WILL BECOME 4 THSD TO 6 THSD SCT WITH
SCT CLOUDS AT AND ABOVE 25 THSD FT AFTER 20Z THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
SKY CONDITIONS TONIGHT FROM 04Z TO 06Z ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CIGS
AROUND 1 THSD FT OVC WITH OCNL AREAS OF VSBYS 3 TO 5 MI IN FOG.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR A KAUS TO KDRT LINE
BY 09Z AND WILL MOVE SOUTH OF KSAT BY 12Z TUESDAY MORNING. CIGS
AROUND 1 THSD OVC WITH VSBYS OCNLLY 3 TO 5 MILES IN SCT SHRA AND
FOG IS EXPECTED WITH THE COLD FRONT...IMPROVING TO CIGS 1 THSD TO
3 THSD BKN IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT FROM 11Z TO 15Z.  VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AFTER 15Z TUESDAY WITH SKY CONDITIONS
BECOMING CIGS 5 THSD BKN TO SCT. SKY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE TO SCT CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 25 THSD FT AFTER 18Z
TUESDAY. WINDS INITIALLY WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NORTH AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS...THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS AFTER 15Z TUESDAY...AND DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS A DRY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
THE REGION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009/

UPDATE...DENSE FOG CONTINUES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU AREAS LATE THIS MORNING..THUS A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED TIL NOON OVER EDWARDS..VAL VERDE..
KINNEY AND MAVERICK COUNTIES. SKY GRIDS WERE AMENDED FOR THE
LATE MORNING PERIOD PER OBSERVATIONS..OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS
ON TRACK FOR THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 12Z AVIATION FORECAST.

AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. AS
MIXING BEGINS AFTER 14Z FOG WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AND CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
S/SE AFTER 15Z AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS. AFTER 06Z MVFR CIGS
DEVELOP WITH S WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES BY 08Z.
SOME -RA/-SHRA ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
AFTER FROPA 08Z-10Z WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH AT SPEEDS
OF 5 TO 10 KTS. AFTER SUNRISE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KTS
WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009/

DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING HAVE LED TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
FOG HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO FORM ACROSS THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY THROUGH MID MORNING. ONCE FOG BURNS OFF...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE FOR MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH TEMPS
LOOKING TO BE ABOUT TEN DEGREES HIGHER THAN SUN.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL TX TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS NOT GREAT
WITH DEW POINTS CURRENTLY IN THE FORTIES AND EXPECTED ONLY TO
REACH AROUND 60 IN THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
THIS WILL MEAN FRONT WILL BE MAINLY DRY. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE
CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE SOUTH TUE MORNING. FRONT WILL BRING
COOLER AIR AND TEMPS WILL MODERATE TUE AND REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEK.

STARTING WED...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
ACROSS TX AND LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. SAT THE HIGH
WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OPENING UP THE GULF AND ALLOWING A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES SAT AND SUN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  52  66  44  68 /   0  20  10  10   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  75  52  66  39  69 /   0  20  10  10   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  53  66  43  70 /   0  20  20  10   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  48  64  41  66 /   0  20  10  10   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           75  52  66  46  69 /   0  10  20  10   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        73  50  65  42  67 /   0  20  10  10   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  52  65  43  70 /   0  20  20  10   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        75  52  64  42  68 /   0  20  10  10   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  53  64  42  67 /   0  20  20  10   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  54  67  45  69 /   0  20  20  10   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           74  54  67  44  69 /   0  20  20  10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
EDWARDS...KINNEY...MAVERICK...VAL VERDE.

&&

$$

02/08/19/05/10

000
FXUS64 KMAF 231756
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1156 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD MOVING
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.

SURFACE WINDS WILL ABRUPTLY SHIFT TO NORTHERLY /AROUND 03Z/ LATE
TODAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRISK NORTH WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS
WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR 3-5 HOURS AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009/

DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING 11-3.9 SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS LOW CLOUD AND FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE STOCKTON PLATEAU. THE LATEST RUC13 AND NAM12
LOW-LEVEL RH PROGS SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE AND SPREAD
NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THIS MORNING. WITH THIS IN MIND...WE HAVE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THE STOCKTON PLATEAU...FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF PECOS COUNTY AND THE SOUTHEASTERN PERMIAN BASIN. MOST OF
THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG AND EAST OF A
SANDERSON...BAKERSFIELD...GARDEN CITY LINE THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED...WITH DRY AIR AND WESTERLY WINDS. THE WARMEST READINGS ARE
LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER THE UPPER TRANS PECOS...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF
PECOS AND WINK...WHERE READINGS IN THE LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD BE
LOCATED ALONG A VAN HORN TO IRAAN LINE AROUND MIDNIGHT. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD ONCE AGAIN ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER TRANS PECOS AND STOCKTON PLATEAU. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE...WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND VERY DRY AIR REMAINS ACROSS ALL AREAS.
WE HAVE GENERALLY GONE AT OR BELOW THE MET GUIDANCE FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES. SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AND TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM TO NEAR NORMAL. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. WE DO EXPECT A WARMING TREND FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS A DEEP TROUGH ORGANIZES OVER THE WESTERN U.S. SOME SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES REMAIN AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...BUT THE
OPERATIONAL GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL RUNS. THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT SPREAD NOTED AMONG THE
GFS ENSEMBLE DATA EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT IS
LOW. FOR NOW...IT APPEARS A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. MODELS SUGGEST SOME PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY. FOR NOW...WE WILL INCREASE OUR POPS...BUT
WILL REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING AND PRECIPITATION UNTIL MODELS CAN
CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION.

FIRE WEATHER... UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR OVER
THE AREA WILL ALLOW MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH/S TO DROP TO AROUND 15
PERCENT FROM THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND STOCKTON PLATEAU AND
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN. SINCE FUELS HAVE CURED...FIRE DANGER IS
HIGH TO VERY HIGH ACROSS ALL OF THESE AREAS. A PASSING UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN 20FT WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND
15 MPH IN MOST LOCATIONS... WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS WILL HAVE 20FT WINDS EXCEED 20 MPH AT
TIMES...HOWEVER THE DURATION AND ISOLATED NATURE OF THESE
CONDITIONS WILL PREVENT THE ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING. WILL
HIGHLIGHT ISOLATED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN BOTH AREAS
IN THE HWO THOUGH.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND SHIFT
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHIFT TO
THE NORTH TONIGHT.  THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE JUST AS DRY
AS THE CURRENT...SO RECOVERY TONIGHT WILL BE FAIR AREAWIDE AT BEST.
DESPITE COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RH/S WILL DROP TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT MOST LOCATIONS.
PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS COULD
ALSO SEE 20FT WINDS AROUND 15 MPH FOR A PERIOD OF TIME DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED.  RECOVERY TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD
AREAWIDE WITH COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KCRP 231754 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1154 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...WILL BASE TIMING OF OTHER TERMINAL PARAMETERS ON
TIMING OF FRONT (E.G. SHOWERS/CIGS ETC). MOISTURE AROUND 850MB IS
COMING BACK AS SEEN BY VISIBLE SATELLITE AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS OBS
(KMFL AND KHRL BKN-OVC060). THAT IS HEADING THIS WAY SO CIGS FIRST
WILL BE VFR BY 00Z ALL BUT KVCT (JUST A BIT LATER). WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS USUAL...AND WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW SOME FOG TO FORM. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO BE AS DENSE
AS BEFORE SINCE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE MUCH LES GIVEN BLANKET
OF CLOUDS IN AND JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. HIT KALI THE
HARDEST (3/4SM OVC002 BY 10Z) AS IT IS IN A LOWER ELEVATION W.R.T.
ITS SURROUNDINGS...LESSER KVCT AND KLRD (IFR CONDITIONS) AS CLOUDS
WILL TEMPER DENSE FOG...AND MVFR AT KCRP. FROPA APPEARS TO BE
AROUND 13Z/14Z KVCT AND KLRD THEN 15Z/16Z KALI AND KCRP. PUT
SHOWERS WITH THE FROPA...WITH THUNDER ONLY AT KCRP (TEMPO) AND
KALI (PROB30)...OTHER LOCATIONS SHOULD BE TOO STABLE FOR IT TO
MENTION. CIGS IMPROVE AND WINDS INCREASE BEHIND FRONT (BUT STILL
HAVE CIGS).

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009/

DISCUSSION...MORNING SOUNDING AND SATELLITE SHOWS DRIER AIR AND
LESS CLOUDS...RESPECTIVELY. THUS...ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER AS EXPECT
MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND CLOUD
THINGS UP...AS VISIBLE SATELLITE IS STARTING TO SHOW. AS A
RESULT...INCREASED TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS. NEW
LOOK AT MODEL DATA STILL SHOWING FROPA BY NOON TUESDAY ALL AREAS
AND LOOKS LIKE MODELS SHOWING MORE AGREEMENT ON THIS. THUS...DID
NOT MAKE TOO MUCH CHANGES AFTER FIRST PERIOD AT THIS TIME.
ADJUSTED SEAS DOWN ON THE MARINE FORECAST BUT THAT WAS ABOUT IT.
UPDATED PRODUCTS ARE OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL LIFT BY MID MORNING...LEADING
TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN CIGS DVLPG AND LOWERING TO MVFR CATEGORY THROUGH
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED TONIGHT HOWEVER THE BKN
STRATUS DECK WILL INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND KEEP FOG FROM
BECOMING DENSE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THUS VSBY`S ARE EXPECTED TO
ALSO REMAIN GENERALLY MVFR TO UPPER IFR CATEGORIES. A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FILTERING INTO S TX THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH WINDS BACKING TO THE E AND NE. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO
BE ON THE INCREASE INTO TUE MORNING...HOWEVER TSRA`S ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY AFTER 12Z TUE AS WELL AS THE STRONGER N WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...FOG/LOW STRATUS IS FORMING
ACROSS S TX PER SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS. AM EXPECTING
THIS TREND TO CONTINUE TOWARD SUNRISE WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
DENSE FOG THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BY MID MORNING.
A SE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH AND USHER IN GULF MOISTURE
THRU THE DAY...LEADING TO A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY AND INCREASING
CLOUDS. RAIN CHCS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT MAINLY DUE TO INCREASING LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE LACKING. A COLD
FRONT IS PROGD TO MOVE INTO S TX BY EARLY TUE MORNING...HOWEVER
MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH. THE NAM IS
SLOWER AND WEAKER WHILE THE GFS IS FASTER WITH A STRONGER NLY WIND
IN ITS WAKE. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE FASTER GFS SOLN AND AM SHOWING
WINDS BACKING TO THE NE BETWEEN 06Z-12Z THEN STRENGTHENING THROUGH
18Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BLDS ACROSS S TX. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG AHD OF THE BDRY TONIGHT WITH THE INCREASING
CONVERGENCE...DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD
INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...THEREFORE AM NOT EXPECTING DENSE FOG
FOR TONIGHT. THE GFS SHOWS INCREASING CAPE AND DECREASING CIN AHD OF
THE BDRY AND WITH THE CONVERGENCE AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...SHOULD
PRODUCE SCT TO NUM SHRA`S/TSRA`S FOR TUE. THE HIGHER POPS SHIFT S AS
THE BDRY MOVES S. TSRA POTENTIAL DECREASES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE
LOSS OF CAPE WITH MAINLY RESIDUAL SHRA`S FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE
FRONT. GIVEN THE LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT WITH BOTH THE SUBTROPICAL JET
AND POLAR JET FAR REMOVED FROM S TX...AM NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR WX AT
THIS TIME.

MARINE...A WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AHD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH EARLY TUE MORNING. A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN
ITS WAKE WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY BY TUE AFTERNOON. SCT TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHD AND ALONG THE COLD
FRONT THEN DECREASING BEHIND THE FRONT.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...A DRY AND COOL AIRMASS
WL PREVAIL THROUGH FRI AS A PERSISTENT SFC RDG AXIS CONTINUES TO
BUILD INTO THE CWA.  TEMPS WL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE TO THE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS.
MOISTURE WL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE CWA BY LATE FRI AS THE MID/UPR RDG
AXIS WEAKENS AND PUSHES EAST OF THE CWA.  ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF A
DEEPENING MID/UPR TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE ROCKIES WL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED PCPN.  WL SHOW A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
BEGINNING ON FRI.  HOWEVER...THE THICKENING CLOUD CVR OVER THE
WEEKEND WL TEND TO HAMPER THE OVERALL WARMING TREND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  64  72  49  69  /  10  20  70  10   0
VICTORIA          77  58  67  42  67  /  10  20  60  10   0
LAREDO            82  64  70  47  73  /  10  20  50  10   0
ALICE             80  61  71  47  71  /  10  20  60  10   0
ROCKPORT          74  66  73  50  68  /  10  20  70  10   0
COTULLA           79  61  67  37  71  /  10  20  40  10   0
KINGSVILLE        79  64  72  47  70  /  10  20  70  10   0
NAVY CORPUS       75  67  74  55  68  /  10  30  70  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM
TT/89...LONG TERM

000
FXUS64 KLUB 231738
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1138 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009

.AVIATION...
TYPICAL PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH-DOMINATED CONDITIONS TODAY WITH
DRY AND BREEZY DOWNSLOPE WINDS. DRY FRONT EXPECTED AROUND 00Z-01Z
AT BOTH TAF SITES...THOUGH WINDS MAY SWING A BIT MORE NORTHWEST
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON JUST BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS SURFACE LOW
EDGES EAST. TIGHT ENOUGH GRADIENT IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING FRONT FOR
PERHAPS LOW END GUSTS AS WELL...WILL BE STUDYING THAT FURTHER FOR
LATER TODAY. VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009/

AVIATION...
CONTINUED VFR. EARLY THIS MORNING A LAYER OF FOG AND LIFR STRATUS
WAS APPARENT ABOUT 25 MILES EAST OF CDS...HOWEVER THIS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO EXPAND WEST AS LIGHT SWLY WINDS WILL BE MAINTAINED AT
THE TERMINAL THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS AREA WIDE WILL THEN VEER
WNW THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. FROPA SHOULD OCCUR AT BOTH LBB AND CDS AROUND
00Z WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KNOTS CONFINED TO CDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009/

SHORT TERM...
FORECAST CHALLENGES TODAY REVOLVE AROUND A DRY...BUT RATHER STRONG
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER OUR NORTHERN ZONES BY MID AFTERNOON
BEFORE EXITING THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING. VORT MAX CURRENTLY
DIGGING OVER THE SRN ROCKIES IS PROJECTED TO SWING EAST TODAY AND
IN THE PROCESS CARRY A LEE TROF FROM ERN NM INTO THE ROLLING
PLAINS BY THE AFTERNOON. VERY DRY AIR ALREADY IN PLACE IN ERN NM
SHOULD READILY MIX EAST BY MIDDAY SECURING ONE FINAL DAY OF ABOVE
NORMAL WARMTH...ESPECIALLY OFF THE CAPROCK WHERE DOWNSLOPING FLOW
WILL BE THE GREATEST. DEEPER MIXING HEIGHTS WITH THIS DRIER AIR
WILL ALSO MAKE FOR SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS WHICH MAY CREATE
DIFFICULTY FOR ANY CONTROLLED BURNS...SEE FIRE DISCUSSION BELOW
FOR MORE DETAILS.

ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS A TAD FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONT TODAY...AM
INCLINED TO SIDE WITH THE SLOWER NAM CONSIDERING FROPA SHOULD
OCCUR IN OUR NORTHERNMOST ZONES AROUND PEAK HEATING AND DURING
THE TIME OF DEEPEST MIXING. THEREAFTER THE FRONT SHOULD ACCELERATE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS CARRY AN AXIS OF STOUT PRESSURE RISES TO THE
TUNE OF 10MB/6HR THROUGH THE CWA BEHIND THE FRONT...HOWEVER
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A LAYER OF 40 KT WINDS AROUND 2K FT AGL
WILL REMAIN WITHIN A STABLE FLOW. WIND GRIDS NONETHELESS WERE
BUMPED UP IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...HOWEVER VALUES LOOK TO
FALL WELL SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...
00Z NAM WAS A BIT SLOWER WITH MOVING THE CLOSED LOW OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WHILE ALL THE OTHER MODELS WERE FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE. LATEST 06Z NAM HAS NOW SPED THE STORM SYSTEM UP A BIT
MORE IN LINE WITH THE OTHER 00Z RUNS. THIS IS SIGNIFICANT BECAUSE
THERE WAS A POSSIBILITY OF WIND SPEEDS TUESDAY REMAINING IN THE
BREEZY RANGE EVEN THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WAS SETTLING IN AT THE
SURFACE IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. NOW IT APPEARS THAT A FAIRLY
HARD FREEZE WILL BE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS OVER THE AREA...LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS COULD DEVELOP...AND LACK OF CLOUD COVER ALL POINT
TOWARDS VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TO TAKE
PLACE.

FORECAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK
LOOKS FAIRLY PLEASANT WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY
TRANSITIONING BACK TOWARDS ZONAL FLOW BY THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH ONLY A FEW WEAK REINFORCING COLD
FRONTS HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK. HOWEVER...MODELS DO
INDICATE A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF/GFS AND SOME EXTENT THE GFS
ENSEMBLES ARE NOW ALL COMING INTO AGREEMENT WITH A DEEP
TROF/CUTOFF LOW POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN TO TAKE
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AHEAD OF THE TROF AXIS/LOW CENTER INITIATES SURFACE LEE TROF
DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE AREA. THIS COULD MEAN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES COULD BE ON THE INCREASE FOR NEXT WEEKEND BUT IT REMAINS
WELL TOO FAR OUT TO SAY THIS WITH ANY KIND OF CERTAINTY. DID
CONTINUE NON-MENTIONABLE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.  MODELS ALSO SHOVE ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION BY SUNDAY/MONDAY WHICH SHOULD HELP TO DROP TEMPERATURES
BACK TO AT OR BELOW NORMAL. WILL HAVE TO WATCH AND SEE IF AND HOW
THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP BEFORE MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE GRIDS/FCST.

JORDAN

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CAPROCK THIS AFTERNOON AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LOWER
TO AROUND 12 PERCENT AND WESTERLY WINDS AT THE 20 FOOT LEVEL
INCREASE TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THE STRONGEST WINDS /POSSIBLY REACHING 20 MPH FOR BRIEF
PERIODS OF TIME/ WILL OCCUPY THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE AND
NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS. CONSIDERING FUELS THROUGHOUT THE AREA ARE
WELL CURED...ADDITIONAL CARE AND PREPARATION SHOULD BE EXERCISED
WITH ANY CONTROLLED BURNS THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
IMPROVE SHARPLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A DRY COLD FRONT AROUND
SUNSET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  24  53  18  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         68  28  56  20  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     69  28  58  21  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     69  27  58  21  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       73  31  60  24  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   71  29  59  21  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    71  31  59  21  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     74  37  59  33  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          74  34  60  27  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     76  36  61  31  64 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05

000
FXUS64 KFWD 231737 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1137 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009

.AVIATION...
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS EVENING NOW THAT ALL
THE DENSE FOG HAS LIFTED. A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH A SOUTH WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
REACH NORTH TEXAS LATE THIS EVENING. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT AT THE
METROPLEX TAF SITES BETWEEN 6 AND 7Z AND WACO AROUND 08Z. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT BUT COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LIMITED
TO MENTION MORE THAN SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY. THERE COULD ALSO BE
SOME BRIEF FOG PRIOR TO THE FRONT AS THE WINDS BECOME LIGHT BUT
ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE VERY BRIEF.

A NORTHWEST WIND WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT AT SPEEDS BETWEEN
12 AND 16 KNOTS.


&&

.UPDATE...
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 11 AM. AS OF
16Z... VISIBILITIES WERE STILL 1/4 MILE OR LESS ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH TEXAS FROM BOWIE...TO GRANBURY...TO
LANCASTER...TO SHERMAN. THE FOG SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISPERSE
DURING THE NEXT HOUR SO WE WILL LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 11 AM.
OTHERWISE...HAVE ADJUSTED THE HOURLY TRENDS BUT MADE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009/
433 AM
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...09Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH CO EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS IS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE EAST ACRS KS
AND OK DURING THE DAY TODAY...SENDING A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH
NORTH TX DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. SHALLOW MOISTURE REMAINS IN
PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WHERE CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ONCE AGAIN ALLOWED AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO
DEVELOP. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH TODAY
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING THROUGH THE
PLAINS...WHICH SHOULD BRING SOME MEAGER RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE
THRU THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FOR TONIGHT. WITH ONLY
AROUND 12 HRS OF GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT EXPECTED...THINKING IS
THAT GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY SHALLOW OVER MUCH OF
NORTH TX. UPPER LEVEL POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
THE BULK OF THE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE RED
RIVER...AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS OF MODEL
RUNS. WITH RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WITHOUT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...THINK THAT RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO REMAIN ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE ALONG IT AS IT
PUSHES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. WITH THIS IN MIND...MAINTAINED THE 20 TO
30 PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR TONIGHT FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THINK THAT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED AT
THIS TIME. BEHIND THE FRONT...MODELS DEPICT A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN
LOW LVL MOISTURE AS AIR CURRENTLY OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES MOVES
INTO NORTH TX. THIS AIRMASS WILL PROBABLY BE MODIFIED SLIGHTLY AS
IT MOVES OUR WAY...SO WE MAY NOT SEE THE LOWER 20S DEW POINT
VALUES THAT ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE...BUT DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S LOOK LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE...CHANCES
OF OVERNIGHT FOG/STRATUS THAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS SHOULD BE SMALL. WITH THE DRIER AIR AND EXPECTED CLEAR
SKIES WE WILL HAVE A GREATER CHANCE TO SEE MANY LOCATIONS APPROACH
OR DIP BELOW THE FREEZING MARK DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH RURAL AND
LOW LYING AREAS BEING MOST LIKELY TO SEE NEAR FREEZING TEMPS FOR
LOWS. URBAN AREAS WILL MOST LIKELY NOT SEE FREEZING TEMPS DURING
THE PERIOD BECAUSE THE AIRMASS IS NOT COLD ENOUGH TO COMBAT THE
HEAT ISLAND EFFECT...BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON IF DAILY
HIGHS DO NOT CLIMB AS HIGH AS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AS
THE INITIAL STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH KICKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES...ANOTHER POWERFUL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
DIVE SOUTH THRU THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BRINGING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL...DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
SECONDARY FRONT IS ONLY EXPECTED TO KEEP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES LOWER
THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK AS THERE WILL BE NO TIME IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS FOR ANY RETURN OF MOISTURE. ON FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AS ANOTHER STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS SHOULD
BRING A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW TO NORTH TX BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING A GRADUAL WARM UP HEADED INTO THE WEEKEND.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
THAT WE WILL HAVE SOME SORT OF STRONG TROUGH TO THE WEST OF TX
PROMOTING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE STATE. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON WHEN EXACTLY THIS TROUGH MAY MOVE NORTHEAST
OVER THE STATE PROVIDING GOOD FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
PRECIPITATION. REGARDLESS...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SIGNALS A WETTER
THAN AVERAGE PATTERN FOR THE FORECAST AREA...SO HAVE GONE AHEAD
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
IT SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT NORTH TX WILL SEE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PUSH THROUGH EITHER SUNDAY NIGHT OR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
AHEAD OF THAT...SOME GOOD MOISTURE RETURN LOOKS LIKELY AT THIS
TIME. COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED TSTM ACTIVITY ACRS THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN WOULD EXPECT THE BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO OCCUR ALONG AND BEHIND ANY COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PIN DOWN A FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS FAR OUT...SO CHOSE TO HIGHLIGHT SOME CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE PERIOD IN GENERAL INSTEAD OF TRYING TO PLACE
THE FRONT/BETTER PRECIP CHANCES.

CAVANAUGH



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  71  50  62  39  64 /   5  20   5   0   0
WACO, TX              73  52  65  39  64 /   5  20  10   0   0
PARIS, TX             69  47  61  38  61 /   5  30  20   0   0
DENTON, TX            71  43  61  35  64 /  10  20   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          70  45  62  36  63 /   5  20  10   0   0
DALLAS, TX            71  51  62  41  64 /   5  20   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           71  52  64  39  63 /   5  30  10   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         72  52  65  39  64 /   5  30  20   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            73  53  65  39  64 /   5  20  10   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /

000
FXUS64 KAMA 231732 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1132 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009

.AVIATION...
INCOMING COLD FRONT IS STILL FEATURE OF INTEREST THIS FCST.  SFC
WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST ABOVE 30 KT THIS AFTN FOLLOWING WIND SHIFT TO
NWLY.  NLY AND NWLY SFC WINDS EXPECTED TO CEASE GUSTING EARLY THIS
EVE...AND CONTINUE AT SPEEDS BELOW 20 KT TNGT AND TUE MRNG.  CI WILL
BE ONLY CLOUDS OF NOTE.  BARRING ANY BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS FROM
BLOWING DUST...VFR FCST CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 514 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE FRONT SWEEPS SOUTH OF THE
PANHANDLES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS SHOULD BE BREEZY AT MINIMUM. AFTER
THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH TRACKS OVERHEAD TONIGHT...COOL NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP ALOFT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN AT THE NORM
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY...HEIGHTS INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS THE
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE BUILDS EAST. DRY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST DURING
THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE THIS RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON
SATURDAY. WITH MOISTURE LACKING...PASSAGE WILL BE DRY. MODELS ARE
TRYING TO RESOLVE ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WHICH COULD BRING OUR NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SOMETIME BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
CONSISTENCY IS LACKING AND THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF ADEQUATE
MOISTURE. THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION WAS REMOVED FROM THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

NUNEZ

FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE TODAY WHERE BREEZY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES COMBINE. WHILE THE PROBABILITY IS LOW AT THIS TIME...THE
SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES MAY APPROACH EXTREME CONDITIONS IF THE COLD
FRONT DELAYS ONE OR TWO HOURS. NEXT SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES OVER THE AREA TODAY.

NUNEZ

AVIATION...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE THE FROPA TIMING AND STRENGTH
OF WINDS...BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FORECAST WILL
REMAIN VFR WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH MIDDAY...SCATTERING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
KDHT/KGUY AROUND 18Z...THEN REACH KAMA AROUND 20Z. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KTS...WITH GUSTS
AROUND 30 KTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH AROUND KAMA. AS THE FRONT
PASSES...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH...INCREASING TO
20 TO 25 KTS SUSTAINED...WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS EXCEEDING 35 KTS.
THERE COULD ALSO BE VERY BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO BLOWING
DUST. BY 01Z...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 KTS AND MAY DROP
BELOW 10 KTS AFTER 06Z.

JOHNSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/16

000
FXUS64 KHGX 231650
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1050 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009

.DISCUSSION...
FOG HAS BURNED OFF MOST AREAS AT THIS POINT BUT WILL LINGER ACROSS
NE ZONES THROUGH ABOUT NOON. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER NICE DAY WITH LOTS
OF SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPS. WILL PROBABLY SEE A FEW CU DEVELOP
THIS AFTN AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNS WITH THE LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO LOWER OR DELAY POPS FOR TONIGHT
MOST AREAS AS IT LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE WILL NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.

35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009/

UPDATE...
12Z AVIATION UPDATE BELOW.

AVIATION...
MORE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG ACROSS MAJORITY OF NON-URBAN TERMINALS
THIS MORNING...BACK TO VFR BY 15Z. SWATH OF MID-UPPER DRY AIR
SWINGING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON
ALLOWING SKC UNDER A WEAK ONSHORE WIND. T/TD SPREAD MAY NOT BE AS
SMALL TUESDAY MORNING AS ATMOSPHERE SLOWLY WARMS UP SLIGHTLY QUICKER
THAN MOISTURE RETURN. NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION...
MORE SPOTTY IFR BR ACROSS MORE RURAL SITES. INCREASING CLOUD COVER
FROM 24/14Z ONWARD DUE TO A SOUTHERN PLAINS TROF DRAGGING IN HIGHER
MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT...PROB30 OF -SHRA AT KIAH UNDER WEAK CAPPING. 31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG...SOME DENSE...WILL LIFT AND BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE. ANOTHER
DRY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EDGES OFF
TO THE EAST AND WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMES
THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT AND BRINGS COOL NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THANKSGIVING
WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S. THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND ALLOWS FOR AN ONSHORE FLOW TO SET
UP AND STRENGTHEN. EXPECT WARMING TEMPERATURES...INCREASING CLOUDS...AND
GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND.  42

MARINE...
QUIET MARITIME CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-TUESDAY. THE NEXT FRONT IS
TIMED TO REACH THE NEAR SHORE WATERS SOMETIME TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE MET GOING INTO THAT EVENING AS OFFSHORE
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 KTS OR GREATER AND 6-9 FOOT SEAS LAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
AS A REINFORCING NORTHERN HIGH PRESSURE CELL COMES ACROSS THE WATERS
LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ONSHORE WINDS RESUME SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...INCREASING IN STRENGTH SUNDAY BEFORE THE NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  54  66  44  66 /   0  20  30  10   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  57  72  45  66 /   0  20  40  10   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            71  63  73  53  65 /   0  20  50  20   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...35

000
FXUS64 KEWX 231645
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1045 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009

.UPDATE...DENSE FOG CONTINUES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU AREAS LATE THIS MORNING..THUS A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED TIL NOON OVER EDWARDS..VAL VERDE..
KINNEY AND MAVERICK COUNTIES. SKY GRIDS WERE AMENDED FOR THE
LATE MORNING PERIOD PER OBSERVATIONS..OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS
ON TRACK FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 12Z AVIATION FORECAST.

AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. AS
MIXING BEGINS AFTER 14Z FOG WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AND CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
S/SE AFTER 15Z AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS. AFTER 06Z MVFR CIGS
DEVELOP WITH S WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES BY 08Z.
SOME -RA/-SHRA ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
AFTER FROPA 08Z-10Z WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH AT SPEEDS
OF 5 TO 10 KTS. AFTER SUNRISE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KTS
WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009/

DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING HAVE LED TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
FOG HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO FORM ACROSS THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY THROUGH MID MORNING. ONCE FOG BURNS OFF...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE FOR MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH TEMPS
LOOKING TO BE ABOUT TEN DEGREES HIGHER THAN SUN.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL TX TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS NOT GREAT
WITH DEW POINTS CURRENTLY IN THE FORTIES AND EXPECTED ONLY TO
REACH AROUND 60 IN THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
THIS WILL MEAN FRONT WILL BE MAINLY DRY. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE
CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE SOUTH TUE MORNING. FRONT WILL BRING
COOLER AIR AND TEMPS WILL MODERATE TUE AND REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEK.

STARTING WED...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
ACROSS TX AND LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. SAT THE HIGH
WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OPENING UP THE GULF AND ALLOWING A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES SAT AND SUN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  52  66  44  68 /   0  20  10  10   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  75  52  66  39  69 /   0  20  10  10   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  53  66  43  70 /   0  20  20  10   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  48  64  41  66 /   0  20  10  10   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           75  52  66  46  69 /   0  10  20  10   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        73  50  65  42  67 /   0  20  10  10   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  52  65  43  70 /   0  20  20  10   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        75  52  64  42  68 /   0  20  10  10   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  53  64  42  67 /   0  20  20  10   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  54  67  45  69 /   0  20  20  10   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           74  54  67  44  69 /   0  20  20  10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
EDWARDS...KINNEY...MAVERICK...VAL VERDE.

&&

$$

02/08

000
FXUS64 KFWD 231620 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1020 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009

.UPDATE...
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 11 AM. AS OF
16Z... VISIBILITIES WERE STILL 1/4 MILE OR LESS ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH TEXAS FROM BOWIE...TO GRANBURY...TO
LANCASTER...TO SHERMAN. THE FOG SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISPERSE
DURING THE NEXT HOUR SO WE WILL LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 11 AM.
OTHERWISE...HAVE ADJUSTED THE HOURLY TRENDS BUT MADE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
517 AM
DENSE FOG HAS FORMED OVER MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS...EXCEPT IN THE
METROPLEX WHERE THE HEAT ISLAND EFFECT IS SLOWING DOWN THE RADIATIVE
COOLING. STILL EXPECT PATCHY DENSE FOG EVEN IN THE CITY CENTERS BY
SUNRISE...AS EVIDENCED BY THE FOG BEGINNING TO AFFECT CITY WEB CAMS
WE ARE WATCHING. BECAUSE THIS RADIATION FOG SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
SHALLOW...EXPECT IT TO BURN OFF NEAR MID MORNING...WITH RAPID
IMPROVEMENT BETWEEN 9 AND 10 AM. COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS
NORTHWEST JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT...BUT PRECIP CHANCES ARE VERY LOW AND
KEPT THE VCSH FOR THE FEW SPRINKLES THAT MAY FALL.   84


&&


.PREV UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
WE EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS UNTIL 11 AM. VISIBILITIES ARE
SLOWLY IMPROVING AND THE REMAINING DENSE FOG SHOULD DISPERSE
BETWEEN 10 AM AND 11 AM.

58

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009/
433 AM
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...09Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH CO EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS IS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE EAST ACRS KS
AND OK DURING THE DAY TODAY...SENDING A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH
NORTH TX DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. SHALLOW MOISTURE REMAINS IN
PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WHERE CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ONCE AGAIN ALLOWED AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO
DEVELOP. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH TODAY
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING THROUGH THE
PLAINS...WHICH SHOULD BRING SOME MEAGER RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE
THRU THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FOR TONIGHT. WITH ONLY
AROUND 12 HRS OF GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT EXPECTED...THINKING IS
THAT GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY SHALLOW OVER MUCH OF
NORTH TX. UPPER LEVEL POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
THE BULK OF THE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE RED
RIVER...AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS OF MODEL
RUNS. WITH RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WITHOUT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...THINK THAT RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO REMAIN ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE ALONG IT AS IT
PUSHES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. WITH THIS IN MIND...MAINTAINED THE 20 TO
30 PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR TONIGHT FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THINK THAT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED AT
THIS TIME. BEHIND THE FRONT...MODELS DEPICT A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN
LOW LVL MOISTURE AS AIR CURRENTLY OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES MOVES
INTO NORTH TX. THIS AIRMASS WILL PROBABLY BE MODIFIED SLIGHTLY AS
IT MOVES OUR WAY...SO WE MAY NOT SEE THE LOWER 20S DEW POINT
VALUES THAT ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE...BUT DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S LOOK LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE...CHANCES
OF OVERNIGHT FOG/STRATUS THAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS SHOULD BE SMALL. WITH THE DRIER AIR AND EXPECTED CLEAR
SKIES WE WILL HAVE A GREATER CHANCE TO SEE MANY LOCATIONS APPROACH
OR DIP BELOW THE FREEZING MARK DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH RURAL AND
LOW LYING AREAS BEING MOST LIKELY TO SEE NEAR FREEZING TEMPS FOR
LOWS. URBAN AREAS WILL MOST LIKELY NOT SEE FREEZING TEMPS DURING
THE PERIOD BECAUSE THE AIRMASS IS NOT COLD ENOUGH TO COMBAT THE
HEAT ISLAND EFFECT...BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON IF DAILY
HIGHS DO NOT CLIMB AS HIGH AS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AS
THE INITIAL STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH KICKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES...ANOTHER POWERFUL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
DIVE SOUTH THRU THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BRINGING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL...DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
SECONDARY FRONT IS ONLY EXPECTED TO KEEP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES LOWER
THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK AS THERE WILL BE NO TIME IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS FOR ANY RETURN OF MOISTURE. ON FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AS ANOTHER STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS SHOULD
BRING A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW TO NORTH TX BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING A GRADUAL WARM UP HEADED INTO THE WEEKEND.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
THAT WE WILL HAVE SOME SORT OF STRONG TROUGH TO THE WEST OF TX
PROMOTING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE STATE. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON WHEN EXACTLY THIS TROUGH MAY MOVE NORTHEAST
OVER THE STATE PROVIDING GOOD FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
PRECIPITATION. REGARDLESS...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SIGNALS A WETTER
THAN AVERAGE PATTERN FOR THE FORECAST AREA...SO HAVE GONE AHEAD
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
IT SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT NORTH TX WILL SEE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PUSH THROUGH EITHER SUNDAY NIGHT OR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
AHEAD OF THAT...SOME GOOD MOISTURE RETURN LOOKS LIKELY AT THIS
TIME. COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED TSTM ACTIVITY ACRS THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN WOULD EXPECT THE BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO OCCUR ALONG AND BEHIND ANY COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PIN DOWN A FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS FAR OUT...SO CHOSE TO HIGHLIGHT SOME CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE PERIOD IN GENERAL INSTEAD OF TRYING TO PLACE
THE FRONT/BETTER PRECIP CHANCES.

CAVANAUGH



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  71  50  62  39  64 /   5  20   5   0   0
WACO, TX              73  52  65  39  64 /   5  20  10   0   0
PARIS, TX             69  47  61  38  61 /   5  30  20   0   0
DENTON, TX            71  43  61  35  64 /  10  20   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          70  45  62  36  63 /   5  20  10   0   0
DALLAS, TX            71  51  62  41  64 /   5  20   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           71  52  64  39  63 /   5  30  10   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         72  52  65  39  64 /   5  30  20   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            73  53  65  39  64 /   5  20  10   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ091>095-
102>105-117>120-131>134-144-145-159.


&&

$$

79/58

000
FXUS64 KCRP 231549 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
949 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009

.DISCUSSION...MORNING SOUNDING AND SATELLITE SHOWS DRIER AIR AND
LESS CLOUDS...RESPECTIVELY. THUS...ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER AS EXPECT
MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND CLOUD
THINGS UP...AS VISIBLE SATELLITE IS STARTING TO SHOW. AS A
RESULT...INCREASED TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS. NEW
LOOK AT MODEL DATA STILL SHOWING FROPA BY NOON TUESDAY ALL AREAS
AND LOOKS LIKE MODELS SHOWING MORE AGREEMENT ON THIS. THUS...DID
NOT MAKE TOO MUCH CHANGES AFTER FIRST PERIOD AT THIS TIME.
ADJUSTED SEAS DOWN ON THE MARINE FORECAST BUT THAT WAS ABOUT IT.
UPDATED PRODUCTS ARE OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL LIFT BY MID MORNING...LEADING
TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN CIGS DVLPG AND LOWERING TO MVFR CATEGORY THROUGH
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED TONIGHT HOWEVER THE BKN
STRATUS DECK WILL INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND KEEP FOG FROM
BECOMING DENSE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THUS VSBY`S ARE EXPECTED TO
ALSO REMAIN GENERALLY MVFR TO UPPER IFR CATEGORIES. A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FILTERING INTO S TX THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH WINDS BACKING TO THE E AND NE. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO
BE ON THE INCREASE INTO TUE MORNING...HOWEVER TSRA`S ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY AFTER 12Z TUE AS WELL AS THE STRONGER N WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...FOG/LOW STRATUS IS FORMING
ACROSS S TX PER SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS. AM EXPECTING
THIS TREND TO CONTINUE TOWARD SUNRISE WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
DENSE FOG THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BY MID MORNING.
A SE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH AND USHER IN GULF MOISTURE
THRU THE DAY...LEADING TO A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY AND INCREASING
CLOUDS. RAIN CHCS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT MAINLY DUE TO INCREASING LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE LACKING. A COLD
FRONT IS PROGD TO MOVE INTO S TX BY EARLY TUE MORNING...HOWEVER
MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH. THE NAM IS
SLOWER AND WEAKER WHILE THE GFS IS FASTER WITH A STRONGER NLY WIND
IN ITS WAKE. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE FASTER GFS SOLN AND AM SHOWING
WINDS BACKING TO THE NE BETWEEN 06Z-12Z THEN STRENGTHENING THROUGH
18Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BLDS ACROSS S TX. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG AHD OF THE BDRY TONIGHT WITH THE INCREASING
CONVERGENCE...DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD
INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...THEREFORE AM NOT EXPECTING DENSE FOG
FOR TONIGHT. THE GFS SHOWS INCREASING CAPE AND DECREASING CIN AHD OF
THE BDRY AND WITH THE CONVERGENCE AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...SHOULD
PRODUCE SCT TO NUM SHRA`S/TSRA`S FOR TUE. THE HIGHER POPS SHIFT S AS
THE BDRY MOVES S. TSRA POTENTIAL DECREASES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE
LOSS OF CAPE WITH MAINLY RESIDUAL SHRA`S FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE
FRONT. GIVEN THE LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT WITH BOTH THE SUBTROPICAL JET
AND POLAR JET FAR REMOVED FROM S TX...AM NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR WX AT
THIS TIME.

MARINE...A WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AHD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH EARLY TUE MORNING. A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN
ITS WAKE WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY BY TUE AFTERNOON. SCT TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHD AND ALONG THE COLD
FRONT THEN DECREASING BEHIND THE FRONT.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...A DRY AND COOL AIRMASS
WL PREVAIL THROUGH FRI AS A PERSISTENT SFC RDG AXIS CONTINUES TO
BUILD INTO THE CWA.  TEMPS WL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE TO THE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS.
MOISTURE WL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE CWA BY LATE FRI AS THE MID/UPR RDG
AXIS WEAKENS AND PUSHES EAST OF THE CWA.  ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF A
DEEPENING MID/UPR TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE ROCKIES WL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED PCPN.  WL SHOW A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
BEGINNING ON FRI.  HOWEVER...THE THICKENING CLOUD CVR OVER THE
WEEKEND WL TEND TO HAMPER THE OVERALL WARMING TREND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  64  72  49  69  /  10  20  70  10   0
VICTORIA          77  58  67  42  67  /  10  20  60  10   0
LAREDO            82  64  70  47  73  /  10  20  50  10   0
ALICE             80  61  71  47  71  /  10  20  60  10   0
ROCKPORT          74  66  73  50  68  /  10  20  70  10   0
COTULLA           79  61  67  37  71  /  10  20  40  10   0
KINGSVILLE        79  64  72  47  70  /  10  20  70  10   0
NAVY CORPUS       75  67  74  55  68  /  10  30  70  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM
TMT/89...LONG TERM

000
FXUS64 KFWD 231536 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
936 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009

.UPDATE...
WE EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS UNTIL 11 AM. VISIBILITIES ARE
SLOWLY IMPROVING AND THE REMAINING DENSE FOG SHOULD DISPERSE
BETWEEN 10 AM AND 11 AM.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
517 AM
DENSE FOG HAS FORMED OVER MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS...EXCEPT IN THE
METROPLEX WHERE THE HEAT ISLAND EFFECT IS SLOWING DOWN THE RADIATIVE
COOLING. STILL EXPECT PATCHY DENSE FOG EVEN IN THE CITY CENTERS BY
SUNRISE...AS EVIDENCED BY THE FOG BEGINNING TO AFFECT CITY WEB CAMS
WE ARE WATCHING. BECAUSE THIS RADIATION FOG SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
SHALLOW...EXPECT IT TO BURN OFF NEAR MID MORNING...WITH RAPID
IMPROVEMENT BETWEEN 9 AND 10 AM. COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS
NORTHWEST JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT...BUT PRECIP CHANCES ARE VERY LOW AND
KEPT THE VCSH FOR THE FEW SPRINKLES THAT MAY FALL.   84


&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009/
433 AM
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...09Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH CO EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS IS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE EAST ACRS KS
AND OK DURING THE DAY TODAY...SENDING A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH
NORTH TX DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. SHALLOW MOISTURE REMAINS IN
PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WHERE CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ONCE AGAIN ALLOWED AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO
DEVELOP. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH TODAY
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING THROUGH THE
PLAINS...WHICH SHOULD BRING SOME MEAGER RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE
THRU THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FOR TONIGHT. WITH ONLY
AROUND 12 HRS OF GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT EXPECTED...THINKING IS
THAT GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY SHALLOW OVER MUCH OF
NORTH TX. UPPER LEVEL POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
THE BULK OF THE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE RED
RIVER...AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS OF MODEL
RUNS. WITH RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WITHOUT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...THINK THAT RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO REMAIN ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE ALONG IT AS IT
PUSHES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. WITH THIS IN MIND...MAINTAINED THE 20 TO
30 PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR TONIGHT FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THINK THAT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED AT
THIS TIME. BEHIND THE FRONT...MODELS DEPICT A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN
LOW LVL MOISTURE AS AIR CURRENTLY OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES MOVES
INTO NORTH TX. THIS AIRMASS WILL PROBABLY BE MODIFIED SLIGHTLY AS
IT MOVES OUR WAY...SO WE MAY NOT SEE THE LOWER 20S DEW POINT
VALUES THAT ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE...BUT DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S LOOK LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE...CHANCES
OF OVERNIGHT FOG/STRATUS THAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS SHOULD BE SMALL. WITH THE DRIER AIR AND EXPECTED CLEAR
SKIES WE WILL HAVE A GREATER CHANCE TO SEE MANY LOCATIONS APPROACH
OR DIP BELOW THE FREEZING MARK DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH RURAL AND
LOW LYING AREAS BEING MOST LIKELY TO SEE NEAR FREEZING TEMPS FOR
LOWS. URBAN AREAS WILL MOST LIKELY NOT SEE FREEZING TEMPS DURING
THE PERIOD BECAUSE THE AIRMASS IS NOT COLD ENOUGH TO COMBAT THE
HEAT ISLAND EFFECT...BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON IF DAILY
HIGHS DO NOT CLIMB AS HIGH AS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AS
THE INITIAL STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH KICKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES...ANOTHER POWERFUL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
DIVE SOUTH THRU THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BRINGING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL...DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
SECONDARY FRONT IS ONLY EXPECTED TO KEEP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES LOWER
THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK AS THERE WILL BE NO TIME IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS FOR ANY RETURN OF MOISTURE. ON FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AS ANOTHER STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS SHOULD
BRING A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW TO NORTH TX BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING A GRADUAL WARM UP HEADED INTO THE WEEKEND.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
THAT WE WILL HAVE SOME SORT OF STRONG TROUGH TO THE WEST OF TX
PROMOTING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE STATE. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON WHEN EXACTLY THIS TROUGH MAY MOVE NORTHEAST
OVER THE STATE PROVIDING GOOD FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
PRECIPITATION. REGARDLESS...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SIGNALS A WETTER
THAN AVERAGE PATTERN FOR THE FORECAST AREA...SO HAVE GONE AHEAD
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
IT SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT NORTH TX WILL SEE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PUSH THROUGH EITHER SUNDAY NIGHT OR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
AHEAD OF THAT...SOME GOOD MOISTURE RETURN LOOKS LIKELY AT THIS
TIME. COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED TSTM ACTIVITY ACRS THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN WOULD EXPECT THE BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO OCCUR ALONG AND BEHIND ANY COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PIN DOWN A FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS FAR OUT...SO CHOSE TO HIGHLIGHT SOME CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE PERIOD IN GENERAL INSTEAD OF TRYING TO PLACE
THE FRONT/BETTER PRECIP CHANCES.

CAVANAUGH

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  71  50  62  39  64 /   5  20   5   0   0
WACO, TX              73  52  65  39  64 /   5  20  10   0   0
PARIS, TX             69  47  61  38  61 /   5  30  20   0   0
DENTON, TX            71  43  61  35  64 /  10  20   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          70  45  62  36  63 /   5  20  10   0   0
DALLAS, TX            71  51  62  41  64 /   5  20   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           71  52  64  39  63 /   5  30  10   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         72  52  65  39  64 /   5  30  20   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            73  53  65  39  64 /   5  20  10   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ091>095-
102>105-117>120-131>134-144-145-159.


&&

$$

79/58

000
FXUS64 KBRO 231530
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
930 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009

.DISCUSSION...MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY
AND REMOVED MENTION OF FOG NOW THAT SKIES HAVE CLEARED. COLD FRONT
STILL EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TOMORROW MORNING...
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS OF TUESDAY. STORM PREDICTION
CENTER BEARISH ON STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
...SO NO ROUGH WEATHER EXPECTED THIS TIME TOMORROW. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH AT THE VERY END OF THIS MONTH. FOR NOW...
UPDATED ZONE FORECAST ISSUED A SHORT TIME AGO.
&&

.MARINE...BUOY020 REPORTS LIGHT EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS AROUND
1 FOOT THIS MORNING. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE TODAY
DUE TO PRESSURE FALLS UPSTREAM. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS NEAR
THE COAST AND ON THE LAGUNA MADRE...AND TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS
FARTHER OFFSHORE.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING AROUND
NOON TUESDAY...WITH NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND HIGHER GUSTS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 9
FEET IN THE GULF TUESDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SQUALL LINE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO
MODERATE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT ANOTHER SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON
THURSDAY COULD CAUSE MARINE WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND VEER NEXT FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD SHIFTS EAST AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
UPSTREAM.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF TODAY...BUT
INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL SET UP A FOG
SCENARIO OVERNIGHT AS WINDS DROP OFF. ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING ASHORE
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TUESDAY A.M....WITH
AREA THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  68  75  59 /   0  50  70  30
BROWNSVILLE          80  67  76  57 /   0  50  70  30
HARLINGEN            80  66  75  57 /   0  40  70  30
MCALLEN              82  66  75  54 /   0  30  60  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      81  63  70  51 /   0  20  60  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   75  66  75  60 /   0  50  70  10
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TOMASELLI-66
MARINE/AVIATION...MILLER-54
MESO...VEGA

000
FXUS64 KCRP 231154
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
554 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL LIFT BY MID MORNING...LEADING
TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN CIGS DVLPG AND LOWERING TO MVFR CATEGORY THROUGH
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED TONIGHT HOWEVER THE BKN
STRATUS DECK WILL INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND KEEP FOG FROM
BECOMING DENSE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THUS VSBY`S ARE EXPECTED TO
ALSO REMAIN GENERALLY MVFR TO UPPER IFR CATEGORIES. A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FILTERING INTO S TX THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH WINDS BACKING TO THE E AND NE. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO
BE ON THE INCREASE INTO TUE MORNING...HOWEVER TSRA`S ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY AFTER 12Z TUE AS WELL AS THE STRONGER N WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...FOG/LOW STRATUS IS FORMING
ACROSS S TX PER SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS. AM EXPECTING
THIS TREND TO CONTINUE TOWARD SUNRISE WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
DENSE FOG THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BY MID MORNING.
A SE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH AND USHER IN GULF MOISTURE
THRU THE DAY...LEADING TO A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY AND INCREASING
CLOUDS. RAIN CHCS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT MAINLY DUE TO INCREASING LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE LACKING. A COLD
FRONT IS PROGD TO MOVE INTO S TX BY EARLY TUE MORNING...HOWEVER
MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH. THE NAM IS
SLOWER AND WEAKER WHILE THE GFS IS FASTER WITH A STRONGER NLY WIND
IN ITS WAKE. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE FASTER GFS SOLN AND AM SHOWING
WINDS BACKING TO THE NE BETWEEN 06Z-12Z THEN STRENGTHENING THROUGH
18Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BLDS ACROSS S TX. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG AHD OF THE BDRY TONIGHT WITH THE INCREASING
CONVERGENCE...DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD
INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...THEREFORE AM NOT EXPECTING DENSE FOG
FOR TONIGHT. THE GFS SHOWS INCREASING CAPE AND DECREASING CIN AHD OF
THE BDRY AND WITH THE CONVERGENCE AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...SHOULD
PRODUCE SCT TO NUM SHRA`S/TSRA`S FOR TUE. THE HIGHER POPS SHIFT S AS
THE BDRY MOVES S. TSRA POTENTIAL DECREASES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE
LOSS OF CAPE WITH MAINLY RESIDUAL SHRA`S FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE
FRONT. GIVEN THE LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT WITH BOTH THE SUBTROPICAL JET
AND POLAR JET FAR REMOVED FROM S TX...AM NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR WX AT
THIS TIME.

MARINE...A WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AHD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH EARLY TUE MORNING. A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN
ITS WAKE WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY BY TUE AFTERNOON. SCT TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHD AND ALONG THE COLD
FRONT THEN DECREASING BEHIND THE FRONT.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...A DRY AND COOL AIRMASS
WL PREVAIL THROUGH FRI AS A PERSISTENT SFC RDG AXIS CONTINUES TO
BUILD INTO THE CWA.  TEMPS WL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE TO THE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS.
MOISTURE WL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE CWA BY LATE FRI AS THE MID/UPR RDG
AXIS WEAKENS AND PUSHES EAST OF THE CWA.  ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF A
DEEPENING MID/UPR TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE ROCKIES WL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED PCPN.  WL SHOW A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
BEGINNING ON FRI.  HOWEVER...THE THICKENING CLOUD CVR OVER THE
WEEKEND WL TEND TO HAMPER THE OVERALL WARMING TREND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  64  72  49  69  /  10  20  70  10   0
VICTORIA          77  58  67  42  67  /  10  20  60  10   0
LAREDO            82  64  70  47  73  /  10  20  50  10   0
ALICE             79  61  71  47  71  /  10  20  60  10   0
ROCKPORT          74  66  73  50  68  /  10  20  70  10   0
COTULLA           76  61  67  37  71  /  10  20  40  10   0
KINGSVILLE        79  64  72  47  70  /  10  20  70  10   0
NAVY CORPUS       75  67  74  55  68  /  10  30  70  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...LA
     SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...REFUGIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM
MB/80...LONG TERM

000
FXUS64 KSJT 231150 AAA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
550 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU WILL EXPAND
NORTH INTO ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
EARLY THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS. CLOUD CEILINGS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LIFR
CATEGORY...AND VISIBILITY COULD DROP INTO THE IFR OR LIFR AT
TIMES. THE CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DISSIPATE AROUND MID-MORNING...
WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10-15 KT...AND
SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED AT THE KABI AND KSJT TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT. PER THE MODEL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS...LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT...AND EXPECT CEILINGS TO MOSTLY BE IN
THE MVFR CATEGORY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009/

SHORT TERM...
GOES 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FOG AND SOME LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE BIG COUNTRY. OTHER PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING JUST SOUTHWEST OF CROCKETT COUNTY. TAKING INTO
ACCOUNT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND CURRENT SURFACE DEWPOINTS...HAVE
EXPANDED THE PATCHY FOG MENTION TO INCLUDE THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
BIG COUNTRY EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE INTO THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF OUR AREA DURING THE EARLY
MORNING.

A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. WARMER 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING
EFFECTS AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT WILL FAVOR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.

UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL DIG INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. PER THE LOW-LEVEL MODEL
MOISTURE FIELDS...LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA ROUGHLY SOUTHEAST OF A BROWNWOOD TO MERTZON LINE TONIGHT...
AS THE FRONT MOVES DOWN INTO THE AREA. LEE TROUGHING AND A
SLIGHTLY INCREASED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT HIGHER
WIND SPEEDS TODAY. WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTH...AND WINDS MAY BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY FOR A FEW HOURS
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

LONG TERM...
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY
TUESDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONLY MANAGE TO REACH THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S AS LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. THE
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN SUSTAINED NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE SUBSIDING LATE. CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH
LIGHT SFC WINDS AND THE VERY DRY LOW LEVELS WILL RESULT IN
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TUE NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S AREAWIDE. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME MID 20S IN SOME OF THE LOWER LYING AREAS IF
SFC WINDS ARE ABLE TO FULLY DECOUPLE.

VERY PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. EXITING SHORT WAVE ON TUE WILL MOVE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY WED WITH A MUCH STRONGER WAVE DIVING SE FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST ON WED...THEN INTO THE TENN VALLEY ON THU.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEP TROUGH BEING CARVED OUT ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS WITH A STRONG UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS
THROUGH SAT WILL BE IN THE 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S BOTH
WED AND THU THEN UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S BY SAT.

FORECAST BECOMES MORE OF A CHALLENGE LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
THE SOUTHWEST STATES OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH COULD BEGIN AFFECTING
OUR WEATHER SUN INTO MON OF NEXT WEEK. CURSORY LOOK AT THE 06Z
GFS SHOWS THAT IT MAY BE TRENDING TOWARDS THE 00Z ECMWF WITH A
CLOSED LOW FORMING OVER ARIZONA LATE SUN BUT TIMING/STRENGTH
ISSUES CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM. BOTH SHOW A COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE AREA ON SUN WITH SOME PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT
POPS OVER THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH
SUN INTO MON AND TRENDED TOWARDS LOWER TEMPERATURES ON MON WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. LATEST MEX NUMBERS NOW SHOWING MID 50S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  77  41  62  34  61 /   0  10  10   0   0
SAN ANGELO  78  43  62  29  64 /   0  10  10   0   0
JUNCTION  76  48  64  29  68 /   0  20  10   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

19/24/19

000
FXUS64 KEWX 231149 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
549 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 12Z AVIATION FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. AS
MIXING BEGINS AFTER 14Z FOG WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AND CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
S/SE AFTER 15Z AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS. AFTER 06Z MVFR CIGS
DEVELOP WITH S WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES BY 08Z.
SOME -RA/-SHRA ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
AFTER FROPA 08Z-10Z WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH AT SPEEDS
OF 5 TO 10 KTS. AFTER SUNRISE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KTS
WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009/

DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING HAVE LED TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
FOG HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO FORM ACROSS THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY THROUGH MID MORNING. ONCE FOG BURNS OFF...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE FOR MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH TEMPS
LOOKING TO BE ABOUT TEN DEGREES HIGHER THAN SUN.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL TX TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS NOT GREAT
WITH DEW POINTS CURRENTLY IN THE FORTIES AND EXPECTED ONLY TO
REACH AROUND 60 IN THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
THIS WILL MEAN FRONT WILL BE MAINLY DRY. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE
CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE SOUTH TUE MORNING. FRONT WILL BRING
COOLER AIR AND TEMPS WILL MODERATE TUE AND REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEK.

STARTING WED...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
ACROSS TX AND LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. SAT THE HIGH
WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OPENING UP THE GULF AND ALLOWING A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES SAT AND SUN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  52  66  44  68 /   0  20  10  10   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  75  52  66  39  69 /   0  20  10  10   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  53  66  43  70 /   0  20  20  10   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  48  64  41  66 /   0  20  10  10   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           75  52  66  46  69 /   0  10  20  10   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        73  50  65  42  67 /   0  20  10  10   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  52  65  43  70 /   0  20  20  10   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        75  52  64  42  68 /   0  20  10  10   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  53  64  42  67 /   0  20  20  10   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  54  67  45  69 /   0  20  20  10   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           74  54  67  44  69 /   0  20  20  10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...
GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...
KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...
UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.

&&

$$

05/10

000
FXUS64 KHGX 231146
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
545 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009

.UPDATE...
12Z AVIATION UPDATE BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
MORE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG ACROSS MAJORITY OF NON-URBAN TERMINALS
THIS MORNING...BACK TO VFR BY 15Z. SWATH OF MID-UPPER DRY AIR
SWINGING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON
ALLOWING SKC UNDER A WEAK ONSHORE WIND. T/TD SPREAD MAY NOT BE AS
SMALL TUESDAY MORNING AS ATMOSPHERE SLOWLY WARMS UP SLIGHTLY QUICKER
THAN MOISTURE RETURN. NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION...
MORE SPOTTY IFR BR ACROSS MORE RURAL SITES. INCREASING CLOUD COVER
FROM 24/14Z ONWARD DUE TO A SOUTHERN PLAINS TROF DRAGGING IN HIGHER
MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT...PROB30 OF -SHRA AT KIAH UNDER WEAK CAPPING. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG...SOME DENSE...WILL LIFT AND BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE. ANOTHER
DRY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EDGES OFF
TO THE EAST AND WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMES
THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT AND BRINGS COOL NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THANKSGIVING
WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S. THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND ALLOWS FOR AN ONSHORE FLOW TO SET
UP AND STRENGTHEN. EXPECT WARMING TEMPERATURES...INCREASING CLOUDS...AND
GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND.  42

MARINE...
QUIET MARITIME CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-TUESDAY. THE NEXT FRONT IS
TIMED TO REACH THE NEAR SHORE WATERS SOMETIME TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE MET GOING INTO THAT EVENING AS OFFSHORE
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 KTS OR GREATER AND 6-9 FOOT SEAS LAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
AS A REINFORCING NORTHERN HIGH PRESSURE CELL COMES ACROSS THE WATERS
LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ONSHORE WINDS RESUME SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...INCREASING IN STRENGTH SUNDAY BEFORE THE NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  54  66  44  66 /   0  30  30  10   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  57  72  45  66 /   0  20  40  10   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            71  63  73  53  65 /   0  20  50  20   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31

000
FXUS64 KHGX 231145
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
545 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009

.UPDATE...
12Z AVIATION UPDATE BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
MORE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG ACROSS MAJORITY OF NON-URBAN TERMINALS
THIS MORNING...BACK TO VFR BY 15Z. SWATH OF MID-UPPER DRY AIR
SWINGING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON
ALLOWING SKC UNDER A WEAK ONSHORE WIND. T/TD SPREAD MAY NOT AS
SMALL TUESDAY MORNING AS ATMOSPHERE SLOWLY WARMS UP SLIGHTLY QUICKER
THAN MOISTURE RETURN. NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION...MORE
SPOTTY IFR BR ACROSS MORE RURAL SITES. INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM
24/14Z ONWARD DUE TO A SOUTHERN PLAINS TROF DRAGGING IN HIGHER MOISTURE
AHEAD OF IT...PROB30 OF -SHRA AT KIAH UNDER WEAK CAPPING. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG...SOME DENSE...WILL LIFT AND BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE. ANOTHER
DRY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EDGES OFF
TO THE EAST AND WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMES
THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT AND BRINGS COOL NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THANKSGIVING
WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S. THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND ALLOWS FOR AN ONSHORE FLOW TO SET
UP AND STRENGTHEN. EXPECT WARMING TEMPERATURES...INCREASING CLOUDS...AND
GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND.  42

MARINE...
QUIET MARITIME CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-TUESDAY. THE NEXT FRONT IS
TIMED TO REACH THE NEAR SHORE WATERS SOMETIME TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE MET GOING INTO THAT EVENING AS OFFSHORE
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 KTS OR GREATER AND 6-9 FOOT SEAS LAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
AS A REINFORCING NORTHERN HIGH PRESSURE CELL COMES ACROSS THE WATERS
LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ONSHORE WINDS RESUME SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...INCREASING IN STRENGTH SUNDAY BEFORE THE NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  54  66  44  66 /   0  30  30  10   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  57  72  45  66 /   0  20  40  10   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            71  63  73  53  65 /   0  20  50  20   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31

000
FXUS64 KLUB 231132
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
532 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009

.AVIATION...
CONTINUED VFR. EARLY THIS MORNING A LAYER OF FOG AND LIFR STRATUS
WAS APPARENT ABOUT 25 MILES EAST OF CDS...HOWEVER THIS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO EXPAND WEST AS LIGHT SWLY WINDS WILL BE MAINTAINED AT
THE TERMINAL THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS AREA WIDE WILL THEN VEER
WNW THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. FROPA SHOULD OCCUR AT BOTH LBB AND CDS AROUND
00Z WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KNOTS CONFINED TO CDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009/

SHORT TERM...
FORECAST CHALLENGES TODAY REVOLVE AROUND A DRY...BUT RATHER STRONG
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER OUR NORTHERN ZONES BY MID AFTERNOON
BEFORE EXITING THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING. VORT MAX CURRENTLY
DIGGING OVER THE SRN ROCKIES IS PROJECTED TO SWING EAST TODAY AND
IN THE PROCESS CARRY A LEE TROF FROM ERN NM INTO THE ROLLING
PLAINS BY THE AFTERNOON. VERY DRY AIR ALREADY IN PLACE IN ERN NM
SHOULD READILY MIX EAST BY MIDDAY SECURING ONE FINAL DAY OF ABOVE
NORMAL WARMTH...ESPECIALLY OFF THE CAPROCK WHERE DOWNSLOPING FLOW
WILL BE THE GREATEST. DEEPER MIXING HEIGHTS WITH THIS DRIER AIR
WILL ALSO MAKE FOR SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS WHICH MAY CREATE
DIFFICULTY FOR ANY CONTROLLED BURNS...SEE FIRE DISCUSSION BELOW
FOR MORE DETAILS.

ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS A TAD FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONT TODAY...AM
INCLINED TO SIDE WITH THE SLOWER NAM CONSIDERING FROPA SHOULD
OCCUR IN OUR NORTHERNMOST ZONES AROUND PEAK HEATING AND DURING
THE TIME OF DEEPEST MIXING. THEREAFTER THE FRONT SHOULD ACCELERATE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS CARRY AN AXIS OF STOUT PRESSURE RISES TO THE
TUNE OF 10MB/6HR THROUGH THE CWA BEHIND THE FRONT...HOWEVER
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A LAYER OF 40 KT WINDS AROUND 2K FT AGL
WILL REMAIN WITHIN A STABLE FLOW. WIND GRIDS NONETHELESS WERE
BUMPED UP IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...HOWEVER VALUES LOOK TO
FALL WELL SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...
00Z NAM WAS A BIT SLOWER WITH MOVING THE CLOSED LOW OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WHILE ALL THE OTHER MODELS WERE FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE. LATEST 06Z NAM HAS NOW SPED THE STORM SYSTEM UP A BIT
MORE IN LINE WITH THE OTHER 00Z RUNS. THIS IS SIGNIFICANT BECAUSE
THERE WAS A POSSIBILITY OF WIND SPEEDS TUESDAY REMAINING IN THE
BREEZY RANGE EVEN THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WAS SETTLING IN AT THE
SURFACE IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. NOW IT APPEARS THAT A FAIRLY
HARD FREEZE WILL BE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS OVER THE AREA...LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS COULD DEVELOP...AND LACK OF CLOUD COVER ALL POINT
TOWARDS VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TO TAKE
PLACE.

FORECAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK
LOOKS FAIRLY PLEASANT WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY
TRANSITIONING BACK TOWARDS ZONAL FLOW BY THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH ONLY A FEW WEAK REINFORCING COLD
FRONTS HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK. HOWEVER...MODELS DO
INDICATE A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF/GFS AND SOME EXTENT THE GFS
ENSEMBLES ARE NOW ALL COMING INTO AGREEMENT WITH A DEEP
TROF/CUTOFF LOW POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN TO TAKE
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AHEAD OF THE TROF AXIS/LOW CENTER INITIATES SURFACE LEE TROF
DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE AREA. THIS COULD MEAN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES COULD BE ON THE INCREASE FOR NEXT WEEKEND BUT IT REMAINS
WELL TOO FAR OUT TO SAY THIS WITH ANY KIND OF CERTAINTY. DID
CONTINUE NON-MENTIONABLE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.  MODELS ALSO SHOVE ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION BY SUNDAY/MONDAY WHICH SHOULD HELP TO DROP TEMPERATURES
BACK TO AT OR BELOW NORMAL. WILL HAVE TO WATCH AND SEE IF AND HOW
THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP BEFORE MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE GRIDS/FCST.

JORDAN

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CAPROCK THIS AFTERNOON AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LOWER
TO AROUND 12 PERCENT AND WESTERLY WINDS AT THE 20 FOOT LEVEL
INCREASE TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THE STRONGEST WINDS /POSSIBLY REACHING 20 MPH FOR BRIEF
PERIODS OF TIME/ WILL OCCUPY THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE AND
NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS. CONSIDERING FUELS THROUGHOUT THE AREA ARE
WELL CURED...ADDITIONAL CARE AND PREPARATION SHOULD BE EXERCISED
WITH ANY CONTROLLED BURNS THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
IMPROVE SHARPLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A DRY COLD FRONT AROUND
SUNSET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  24  53  18  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         68  28  56  20  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     69  28  58  21  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     69  27  58  21  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       73  31  59  24  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   71  29  59  21  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    71  31  59  21  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     74  37  59  33  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          74  34  60  27  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     76  36  61  31  64 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14/93

000
FXUS64 KMAF 231125
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
525 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING 11-3.9 SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS LOW CLOUD AND FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE STOCKTON PLATEAU. THE LATEST RUC13 AND NAM12
LOW-LEVEL RH PROGS SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE AND SPREAD
NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THIS MORNING. WITH THIS IN MIND...WE HAVE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THE STOCKTON PLATEAU...FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF PECOS COUNTY AND THE SOUTHEASTERN PERMIAN BASIN. MOST OF
THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG AND EAST OF A
SANDERSON...BAKERSFIELD...GARDEN CITY LINE THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED...WITH DRY AIR AND WESTERLY WINDS. THE WARMEST READINGS ARE
LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER THE UPPER TRANS PECOS...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF
PECOS AND WINK...WHERE READINGS IN THE LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD BE
LOCATED ALONG A VAN HORN TO IRAAN LINE AROUND MIDNIGHT. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD ONCE AGAIN ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER TRANS PECOS AND STOCKTON PLATEAU. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE...WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND VERY DRY AIR REMAINS ACROSS ALL AREAS.
WE HAVE GENERALLY GONE AT OR BELOW THE MET GUIDANCE FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES. SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AND TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM TO NEAR NORMAL. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. WE DO EXPECT A WARMING TREND FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS A DEEP TROUGH ORGANIZES OVER THE WESTERN U.S. SOME SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES REMAIN AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...BUT THE
OPERATIONAL GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL RUNS. THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT SPREAD NOTED AMONG THE
GFS ENSEMBLE DATA EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT IS
LOW. FOR NOW...IT APPEARS A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. MODELS SUGGEST SOME PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY. FOR NOW...WE WILL INCREASE OUR POPS...BUT
WILL REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING AND PRECIPITATION UNTIL MODELS CAN
CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
WILL INCLUDE AN IFR CEILING AND MVFR VISIBILITY AT MIDLAND THIS
MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN
THIS MORNING.  THINK VEERED LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PREVENT ANY OF THE
OTHER TAF SITES IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS FROM
EXPERIENCING THESE CONDITIONS.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THEREAFTER.  GENERALLY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 15KT THIS AFTERNOON AT MOST TAF SITES...WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS.  A COLD FRONT WILL TURN WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES
SOUTHWARD.  WIND SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 15KT RANGE WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS AS THE FRONT PASSES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW
MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH/S TO DROP TO AROUND 15 PERCENT FROM THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS AND STOCKTON PLATEAU AND NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN.  SINCE
FUELS HAVE CURED...FIRE DANGER IS HIGH TO VERY HIGH ACROSS ALL
OF THESE AREAS.  A PASSING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN
20FT WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 MPH IN MOST LOCATIONS...
WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS WILL HAVE
20FT WINDS EXCEED 20 MPH AT TIMES...HOWEVER THE DURATION AND
ISOLATED NATURE OF THESE CONDITIONS WILL PREVENT THE ISSUANCE OF A
RED FLAG WARNING.  WILL HIGHLIGHT ISOLATED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN BOTH AREAS IN THE HWO THOUGH.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND SHIFT
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHIFT TO
THE NORTH TONIGHT.  THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE JUST AS DRY
AS THE CURRENT...SO RECOVERY TONIGHT WILL BE FAIR AREAWIDE AT BEST.
DESPITE COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RH/S WILL DROP TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT MOST LOCATIONS.
PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS COULD
ALSO SEE 20FT WINDS AROUND 15 MPH FOR A PERIOD OF TIME DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED.  RECOVERY TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD
AREAWIDE WITH COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67

000
FXUS64 KFWD 231117 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
517 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009

.AVIATION...
517 AM
DENSE FOG HAS FORMED OVER MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS...EXCEPT IN THE
METROPLEX WHERE THE HEAT ISLAND EFFECT IS SLOWING DOWN THE RADIATIVE
COOLING. STILL EXPECT PATCHY DENSE FOG EVEN IN THE CITY CENTERS BY
SUNRISE...AS EVIDENCED BY THE FOG BEGINNING TO AFFECT CITY WEB CAMS
WE ARE WATCHING. BECAUSE THIS RADIATION FOG SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
SHALLOW...EXPECT IT TO BURN OFF NEAR MID MORNING...WITH RAPID
IMPROVEMENT BETWEEN 9 AND 10 AM. COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS
NORTHWEST JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT...BUT PRECIP CHANCES ARE VERY LOW AND
KEPT THE VCSH FOR THE FEW SPRINKLES THAT MAY FALL.   84

&&

.DISCUSSION...
433 AM
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...09Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH CO EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS IS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE EAST ACRS KS
AND OK DURING THE DAY TODAY...SENDING A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH
NORTH TX DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. SHALLOW MOISTURE REMAINS IN
PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WHERE CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ONCE AGAIN ALLOWED AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO
DEVELOP. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH TODAY
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING THROUGH THE
PLAINS...WHICH SHOULD BRING SOME MEAGER RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE
THRU THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FOR TONIGHT. WITH ONLY
AROUND 12 HRS OF GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT EXPECTED...THINKING IS
THAT GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY SHALLOW OVER MUCH OF
NORTH TX. UPPER LEVEL POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
THE BULK OF THE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE RED
RIVER...AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS OF MODEL
RUNS. WITH RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WITHOUT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...THINK THAT RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO REMAIN ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE ALONG IT AS IT
PUSHES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. WITH THIS IN MIND...MAINTAINED THE 20 TO
30 PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR TONIGHT FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THINK THAT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED AT
THIS TIME. BEHIND THE FRONT...MODELS DEPICT A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN
LOW LVL MOISTURE AS AIR CURRENTLY OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES MOVES
INTO NORTH TX. THIS AIRMASS WILL PROBABLY BE MODIFIED SLIGHTLY AS
IT MOVES OUR WAY...SO WE MAY NOT SEE THE LOWER 20S DEW POINT
VALUES THAT ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE...BUT DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S LOOK LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE...CHANCES
OF OVERNIGHT FOG/STRATUS THAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS SHOULD BE SMALL. WITH THE DRIER AIR AND EXPECTED CLEAR
SKIES WE WILL HAVE A GREATER CHANCE TO SEE MANY LOCATIONS APPROACH
OR DIP BELOW THE FREEZING MARK DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH RURAL AND
LOW LYING AREAS BEING MOST LIKELY TO SEE NEAR FREEZING TEMPS FOR
LOWS. URBAN AREAS WILL MOST LIKELY NOT SEE FREEZING TEMPS DURING
THE PERIOD BECAUSE THE AIRMASS IS NOT COLD ENOUGH TO COMBAT THE
HEAT ISLAND EFFECT...BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON IF DAILY
HIGHS DO NOT CLIMB AS HIGH AS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AS
THE INITIAL STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH KICKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES...ANOTHER POWERFUL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
DIVE SOUTH THRU THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BRINGING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL...DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
SECONDARY FRONT IS ONLY EXPECTED TO KEEP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES LOWER
THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK AS THERE WILL BE NO TIME IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS FOR ANY RETURN OF MOISTURE. ON FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AS ANOTHER STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS SHOULD
BRING A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW TO NORTH TX BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING A GRADUAL WARM UP HEADED INTO THE WEEKEND.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
THAT WE WILL HAVE SOME SORT OF STRONG TROUGH TO THE WEST OF TX
PROMOTING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE STATE. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON WHEN EXACTLY THIS TROUGH MAY MOVE NORTHEAST
OVER THE STATE PROVIDING GOOD FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
PRECIPITATION. REGARDLESS...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SIGNALS A WETTER
THAN AVERAGE PATTERN FOR THE FORECAST AREA...SO HAVE GONE AHEAD
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
IT SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT NORTH TX WILL SEE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PUSH THROUGH EITHER SUNDAY NIGHT OR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
AHEAD OF THAT...SOME GOOD MOISTURE RETURN LOOKS LIKELY AT THIS
TIME. COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED TSTM ACTIVITY ACRS THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN WOULD EXPECT THE BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO OCCUR ALONG AND BEHIND ANY COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PIN DOWN A FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS FAR OUT...SO CHOSE TO HIGHLIGHT SOME CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE PERIOD IN GENERAL INSTEAD OF TRYING TO PLACE
THE FRONT/BETTER PRECIP CHANCES.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  71  50  62  39  64 /   5  20   5   0   0
WACO, TX              73  52  65  39  64 /   5  20  10   0   0
PARIS, TX             69  47  61  38  61 /   5  30  20   0   0
DENTON, TX            71  43  61  35  64 /  10  20   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          70  45  62  36  63 /   5  20  10   0   0
DALLAS, TX            71  51  62  41  64 /   5  20   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           71  52  64  39  63 /   5  30  10   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         72  52  65  39  64 /   5  30  20   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            73  53  65  39  64 /   5  20  10   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.


&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KAMA 231114
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
514 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE FRONT SWEEPS SOUTH OF THE
PANHANDLES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS SHOULD BE BREEZY AT MINIMUM. AFTER
THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH TRACKS OVERHEAD TONIGHT...COOL NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP ALOFT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN AT THE NORM
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY...HEIGHTS INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS THE
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE BUILDS EAST. DRY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST DURING
THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE THIS RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON
SATURDAY. WITH MOISTURE LACKING...PASSAGE WILL BE DRY. MODELS ARE
TRYING TO RESOLVE ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WHICH COULD BRING OUR NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SOMETIME BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
CONSISTENCY IS LACKING AND THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF ADEQUATE
MOISTURE. THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION WAS REMOVED FROM THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

NUNEZ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE TODAY WHERE BREEZY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES COMBINE. WHILE THE PROBABILITY IS LOW AT THIS TIME...THE
SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES MAY APPROACH EXTREME CONDITIONS IF THE COLD
FRONT DELAYS ONE OR TWO HOURS. NEXT SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES OVER THE AREA TODAY.

NUNEZ

&&

.AVIATION...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE THE FROPA TIMING AND STRENGTH
OF WINDS...BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FORECAST WILL
REMAIN VFR WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH MIDDAY...SCATTERING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
KDHT/KGUY AROUND 18Z...THEN REACH KAMA AROUND 20Z. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KTS...WITH GUSTS
AROUND 30 KTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH AROUND KAMA. AS THE FRONT
PASSES...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH...INCREASING TO
20 TO 25 KTS SUSTAINED...WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS EXCEEDING 35 KTS.
THERE COULD ALSO BE VERY BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO BLOWING
DUST. BY 01Z...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 KTS AND MAY DROP
BELOW 10 KTS AFTER 06Z.

JOHNSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                63  29  53  24  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  60  31  53  23  53 /   5   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              50  26  52  22  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  59  32  55  27  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              61  27  56  22  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  66  28  55  21  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               67  34  56  27  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 57  24  55  20  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  57  28  53  23  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                65  25  55  20  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                61  32  54  23  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   59  32  53  29  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                66  36  59  28  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              69  36  60  29  62 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

24/08

000
FXUS64 KEPZ 231104
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
358 AM MST MON NOV 23 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT DESCENDS FROM THE
NORTH OVER THE BORDERLAND BY LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
BACK TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS
SURFACE WINDS GRADUALLY TURN O THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN OVERALL PATTERN TO REMAIN DRY THIS ENTIRE WEEK WITH MOSTLY MILD
TEMPERATURES PER MODEL OUTPUT...THOUGH SOME MINOR CHANGES IN MODELS
MID WEEK. IN THE SHORT TERM EVERY THING STILL ON COURSE FOR FOR
COOLING DOWN PERIOD. MAIN UPPER LOW NOW OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA IN
BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN TO NEW MEXICO. WV IMAGERY SHOWING ONE
WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSED THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING WITH LITTLE
EFFECT. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IS DROPPING INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS
MORNING WITH A DISSIPATING BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS. SECONDARY VORT
CENTER FORMING OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO THIS MORNING TOWARD THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE THIS EVENING WILL INCREASE THE COOLER NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER US AND HELP DRAG A COLD FRONT DOWN FROM THE NORTH. FRONT
SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE CWA BY TUESDAY MORNING...SLICING ABOUT 10
DEGREES OFF OF TODAY`S HIGHS...AND BELOW NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. LITTLE IF ANY INCREASE IN DEW POINTS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SO JUST CAN`T SEE ANY REASON FOR ANY CLOUDS OR POPS. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AND GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN
NORTH-SOUTH CHANNELED TERRAIN.

LARGE BROAD RIDGE MOVES OVER THE WESTERN U.S. IN THE WAKE OF THE
EXITING TROUGH. THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE WINDS TO SLOWLY VEER BACK
SOUTH AND THEN TO SOUTHWEST AND WARM TEMPERATURES BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUBTLY
CHANGE MID WEEK PATTERN AS SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS UNDER THE WEST COAST
RIDGE. GFS STILL SHOWS SOUTHERN BRANCH DEVELOPING UPPER LOW NEAR THE
BAJA WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...MOSTLY MID
AND HIGH LEVEL...MOVING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO THURSDAY. LATEST RUNS
NOW JUST "NICKING" THE CWA WITH THE HIGHER CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. IN ADDITION LOOKS LIKE GFS ATTEMPTS TO BRING A FRONT ALOFT
FROM THE NEXT PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH INTO THE WESTERN U.S. AND MERGE
IT WITH THIS HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN BRANCH. BOTTOM
LINE...JUST SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
WITH THIS.

AFOREMENTIONED INCOMING PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES BY SUNDAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS FEATURE.
GFS HAS BEEN WILDLY FLUCTUATING ON THIS FROM RUN TO RUN...BUT A FEW
OF THE RUNS HAVE DEVELOPING STRONGLY DIGGING CLOSED LOW OVER NEW
MEXICO WITH HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL. DUE TO THE STRONG FLUCTUATIONS
WITH THE MODELS WILL NOT EVEN BOTHER TAILORING THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD TO THIS SCENARIO YET.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 23/12Z-24/12Z...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z...WITH
STRONGER GUSTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH NORTH-SOUTH CHANNELED
TERRAIN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER TROUGH HEADED FOR THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY WILL INCREASE
COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND DROP A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DOWN TO
THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. LITTLE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH BUT HUMIDITIES WILL BE HIGHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE
TO COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY. DRY PATTERN AND RETURNING NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AFTER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 70  39  61  34  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA TX        67  33  59  28  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              69  36  60  31  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              68  33  58  29  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              53  21  46  16  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   67  32  58  28  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             63  30  56  24  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  69  35  60  30  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               70  34  61  30  63 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17 HEFNER

000
FXUS64 KSJT 231053
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
453 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009

.SHORT TERM...
GOES 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FOG AND SOME LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE BIG COUNTRY. OTHER PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING JUST SOUTHWEST OF CROCKETT COUNTY. TAKING INTO
ACCOUNT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND CURRENT SURFACE DEWPOINTS...HAVE
EXPANDED THE PATCHY FOG MENTION TO INCLUDE THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
BIG COUNTRY EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE INTO THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF OUR AREA DURING THE EARLY
MORNING.

A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. WARMER 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING
EFFECTS AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT WILL FAVOR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.

UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL DIG INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. PER THE LOW-LEVEL MODEL
MOISTURE FIELDS...LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA ROUGHLY SOUTHEAST OF A BROWNWOOD TO MERTZON LINE TONIGHT...
AS THE FRONT MOVES DOWN INTO THE AREA. LEE TROUGHING AND A
SLIGHTLY INCREASED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT HIGHER
WIND SPEEDS TODAY. WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTH...AND WINDS MAY BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY FOR A FEW HOURS
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY
TUESDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONLY MANAGE TO REACH THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S AS LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. THE
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN SUSTAINED NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE SUBSIDING LATE. CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH
LIGHT SFC WINDS AND THE VERY DRY LOW LEVELS WILL RESULT IN
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TUE NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S AREAWIDE. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME MID 20S IN SOME OF THE LOWER LYING AREAS IF
SFC WINDS ARE ABLE TO FULLY DECOUPLE.

VERY PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. EXITING SHORT WAVE ON TUE WILL MOVE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY WED WITH A MUCH STRONGER WAVE DIVING SE FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST ON WED...THEN INTO THE TENN VALLEY ON THU.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEP TROUGH BEING CARVED OUT ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS WITH A STRONG UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS
THROUGH SAT WILL BE IN THE 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S BOTH
WED AND THU THEN UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S BY SAT.

FORECAST BECOMES MORE OF A CHALLENGE LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
THE SOUTHWEST STATES OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH COULD BEGIN AFFECTING
OUR WEATHER SUN INTO MON OF NEXT WEEK. CURSORY LOOK AT THE 06Z
GFS SHOWS THAT IT MAY BE TRENDING TOWARDS THE 00Z ECMWF WITH A
CLOSED LOW FORMING OVER ARIZONA LATE SUN BUT TIMING/STRENGTH
ISSUES CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM. BOTH SHOW A COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE AREA ON SUN WITH SOME PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT
POPS OVER THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH
SUN INTO MON AND TRENDED TOWARDS LOWER TEMPERATURES ON MON WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. LATEST MEX NUMBERS NOW SHOWING MID 50S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  77  41  62  34  61 /   0  10  10   0   0
SAN ANGELO  78  43  62  30  64 /   0  10  10   0   0
JUNCTION  76  48  64  29  68 /   0  20  10   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

19/24

000
FXUS64 KHGX 231040
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
439 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG...SOME DENSE...WILL LIFT AND BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE. ANOTHER
DRY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EDGES OFF
TO THE EAST AND WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMES
THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT AND BRINGS COOL NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THANKSGIVING
WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S. THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND ALLOWS FOR AN ONSHORE FLOW TO SET
UP AND STRENGTHEN. EXPECT WARMING TEMPERATURES...INCREASING CLOUDS...AND
GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND.  42
&&

.MARINE...
QUIET MARITIME CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-TUESDAY. THE NEXT FRONT IS
TIMED TO REACH THE NEAR SHORE WATERS SOMETIME TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE MET GOING INTO THAT EVENING AS OFFSHORE
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 KTS OR GREATER AND 6-9 FOOT SEAS LAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
AS A REINFORCING NORTHERN HIGH PRESSURE CELL COMES ACROSS THE WATERS
LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ONSHORE WINDS RESUME SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...INCREASING IN STRENGTH SUNDAY BEFORE THE NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  54  66  44  66 /   0  30  30  10   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  57  72  45  66 /   0  20  40  10   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            71  63  73  53  65 /   0  20  50  20   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31

000
FXUS64 KFWD 231033
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
433 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...09Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH CO EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS IS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE EAST ACRS KS
AND OK DURING THE DAY TODAY...SENDING A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH
NORTH TX DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. SHALLOW MOISTURE REMAINS IN
PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WHERE CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ONCE AGAIN ALLOWED AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO
DEVELOP. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH TODAY
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING THROUGH THE
PLAINS...WHICH SHOULD BRING SOME MEAGER RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE
THRU THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FOR TONIGHT. WITH ONLY
AROUND 12 HRS OF GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT EXPECTED...THINKING IS
THAT GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY SHALLOW OVER MUCH OF
NORTH TX. UPPER LEVEL POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
THE BULK OF THE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE RED
RIVER...AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS OF MODEL
RUNS. WITH RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WITHOUT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...THINK THAT RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO REMAIN ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE ALONG IT AS IT
PUSHES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. WITH THIS IN MIND...MAINTAINED THE 20 TO
30 PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR TONIGHT FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THINK THAT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED AT
THIS TIME. BEHIND THE FRONT...MODELS DEPICT A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN
LOW LVL MOISTURE AS AIR CURRENTLY OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES MOVES
INTO NORTH TX. THIS AIRMASS WILL PROBABLY BE MODIFIED SLIGHTLY AS
IT MOVES OUR WAY...SO WE MAY NOT SEE THE LOWER 20S DEW POINT
VALUES THAT ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE...BUT DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S LOOK LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE...CHANCES
OF OVERNIGHT FOG/STRATUS THAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS SHOULD BE SMALL. WITH THE DRIER AIR AND EXPECTED CLEAR
SKIES WE WILL HAVE A GREATER CHANCE TO SEE MANY LOCATIONS APPROACH
OR DIP BELOW THE FREEZING MARK DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH RURAL AND
LOW LYING AREAS BEING MOST LIKELY TO SEE NEAR FREEZING TEMPS FOR
LOWS. URBAN AREAS WILL MOST LIKELY NOT SEE FREEZING TEMPS DURING
THE PERIOD BECAUSE THE AIRMASS IS NOT COLD ENOUGH TO COMBAT THE
HEAT ISLAND EFFECT...BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON IF DAILY
HIGHS DO NOT CLIMB AS HIGH AS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AS
THE INITIAL STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH KICKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES...ANOTHER POWERFUL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
DIVE SOUTH THRU THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BRINGING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL...DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
SECONDARY FRONT IS ONLY EXPECTED TO KEEP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES LOWER
THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK AS THERE WILL BE NO TIME IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS FOR ANY RETURN OF MOISTURE. ON FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AS ANOTHER STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS SHOULD
BRING A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW TO NORTH TX BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING A GRADUAL WARM UP HEADED INTO THE WEEKEND.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
THAT WE WILL HAVE SOME SORT OF STRONG TROUGH TO THE WEST OF TX
PROMOTING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE STATE. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON WHEN EXACTLY THIS TROUGH MAY MOVE NORTHEAST
OVER THE STATE PROVIDING GOOD FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
PRECIPITATION. REGARDLESS...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SIGNALS A WETTER
THAN AVERAGE PATTERN FOR THE FORECAST AREA...SO HAVE GONE AHEAD
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
IT SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT NORTH TX WILL SEE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PUSH THROUGH EITHER SUNDAY NIGHT OR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
AHEAD OF THAT...SOME GOOD MOISTURE RETURN LOOKS LIKELY AT THIS
TIME. COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED TSTM ACTIVITY ACRS THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN WOULD EXPECT THE BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO OCCUR ALONG AND BEHIND ANY COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PIN DOWN A FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS FAR OUT...SO CHOSE TO HIGHLIGHT SOME CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE PERIOD IN GENERAL INSTEAD OF TRYING TO PLACE
THE FRONT/BETTER PRECIP CHANCES.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  71  50  62  39  64 /   5  20   5   0   0
WACO, TX              73  52  65  39  64 /   5  20  10   0   0
PARIS, TX             69  47  61  38  61 /   5  30  20   0   0
DENTON, TX            71  43  61  35  64 /  10  20   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          70  45  62  36  63 /   5  20  10   0   0
DALLAS, TX            71  51  62  41  64 /   5  20   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           71  52  64  39  63 /   5  30  10   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         72  52  65  39  64 /   5  30  20   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            73  53  65  39  64 /   5  20  10   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.


&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KHGX 231029
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
429 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG...SOME DENSE...WILL LIFT AND BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE. ANOTHER
DRY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EDGES OFF
TO THE EAST AND WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMES
THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT AND BRINGS COOL NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THANKSGIVING
WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S. THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND ALLOWS FOR AN ONSHORE FLOW TO SET
UP AND STRENGTHEN. EXPECT WARMING TEMPERATURES...INCREASING CLOUDS...AND
GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND.  42
&&

.MARINE...
QUIET MARITIME CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-TUESDAY. THE NEXT FRONT IS
TIMED TO REACH THE NEAR SHORE WATERS SOMETIME TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE MET GOING INTO THAT EVENING AS OFFSHORE
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 KTS OR GREATER AND 6-9 FOOT SEAS LAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
AS A REINFORCING NORTHERN HIGH PRESSURE CELL COMES ACROSS THE WATERS
LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ONSHORE WINDS RESUME SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...INCREASING IN STRENGTH SUNDAY BEFORE THE NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  54  66  44  66 /   0  30  30  10   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  57  72  45  66 /   0  20  40  10   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            71  63  73  53  65 /   0  20  50  20   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31

000
FXUS64 KLUB 231022
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
422 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009

.SHORT TERM...
FORECAST CHALLENGES TODAY REVOLVE AROUND A DRY...BUT RATHER STRONG
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER OUR NORTHERN ZONES BY MID AFTERNOON
BEFORE EXITING THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING. VORT MAX CURRENTLY
DIGGING OVER THE SRN ROCKIES IS PROJECTED TO SWING EAST TODAY AND
IN THE PROCESS CARRY A LEE TROF FROM ERN NM INTO THE ROLLING
PLAINS BY THE AFTERNOON. VERY DRY AIR ALREADY IN PLACE IN ERN NM
SHOULD READILY MIX EAST BY MIDDAY SECURING ONE FINAL DAY OF ABOVE
NORMAL WARMTH...ESPECIALLY OFF THE CAPROCK WHERE DOWNSLOPING FLOW
WILL BE THE GREATEST. DEEPER MIXING HEIGHTS WITH THIS DRIER AIR
WILL ALSO MAKE FOR SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS WHICH MAY CREATE
DIFFICULTY FOR ANY CONTROLLED BURNS...SEE FIRE DISCUSSION BELOW
FOR MORE DETAILS.

ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS A TAD FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONT TODAY...AM
INCLINED TO SIDE WITH THE SLOWER NAM CONSIDERING FROPA SHOULD
OCCUR IN OUR NORTHERNMOST ZONES AROUND PEAK HEATING AND DURING
THE TIME OF DEEPEST MIXING. THEREAFTER THE FRONT SHOULD ACCELERATE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS CARRY AN AXIS OF STOUT PRESSURE RISES TO THE
TUNE OF 10MB/6HR THROUGH THE CWA BEHIND THE FRONT...HOWEVER
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A LAYER OF 40 KT WINDS AROUND 2K FT AGL
WILL REMAIN WITHIN A STABLE FLOW. WIND GRIDS NONETHELESS WERE
BUMPED UP IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...HOWEVER VALUES LOOK TO
FALL WELL SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.LONG TERM...
00Z NAM WAS A BIT SLOWER WITH MOVING THE CLOSED LOW OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WHILE ALL THE OTHER MODELS WERE FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE. LATEST 06Z NAM HAS NOW SPED THE STORM SYSTEM UP A BIT
MORE IN LINE WITH THE OTHER 00Z RUNS. THIS IS SIGNIFICANT BECAUSE
THERE WAS A POSSIBILITY OF WIND SPEEDS TUESDAY REMAINING IN THE
BREEZY RANGE EVEN THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WAS SETTLING IN AT THE
SURFACE IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. NOW IT APPEARS THAT A FAIRLY
HARD FREEZE WILL BE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS OVER THE AREA...LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS COULD DEVELOP...AND LACK OF CLOUD COVER ALL POINT
TOWARDS VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TO TAKE
PLACE.

FORECAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK
LOOKS FAIRLY PLEASANT WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY
TRANSITIONING BACK TOWARDS ZONAL FLOW BY THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH ONLY A FEW WEAK REINFORCING COLD
FRONTS HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK. HOWEVER...MODELS DO
INDICATE A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF/GFS AND SOME EXTENT THE GFS
ENSEMBLES ARE NOW ALL COMING INTO AGREEMENT WITH A DEEP
TROF/CUTOFF LOW POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN TO TAKE
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AHEAD OF THE TROF AXIS/LOW CENTER INITIATES SURFACE LEE TROF
DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE AREA. THIS COULD MEAN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES COULD BE ON THE INCREASE FOR NEXT WEEKEND BUT IT REMAINS
WELL TOO FAR OUT TO SAY THIS WITH ANY KIND OF CERTAINTY. DID
CONTINUE NON-MENTIONABLE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.  MODELS ALSO SHOVE ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION BY SUNDAY/MONDAY WHICH SHOULD HELP TO DROP TEMPERATURES
BACK TO AT OR BELOW NORMAL. WILL HAVE TO WATCH AND SEE IF AND HOW
THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP BEFORE MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE GRIDS/FCST.

JORDAN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CAPROCK THIS AFTERNOON AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LOWER
TO AROUND 12 PERCENT AND WESTERLY WINDS AT THE 20 FOOT LEVEL
INCREASE TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THE STRONGEST WINDS /POSSIBLY REACHING 20 MPH FOR BRIEF
PERIODS OF TIME/ WILL OCCUPY THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE AND
NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS. CONSIDERING FUELS THROUGHOUT THE AREA ARE
WELL CURED...ADDITIONAL CARE AND PREPARATION SHOULD BE EXERCISED
WITH ANY CONTROLLED BURNS THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
IMPROVE SHARPLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A DRY COLD FRONT AROUND
SUNSET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  24  53  18  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         68  28  56  20  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     69  28  58  21  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     69  27  58  21  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       73  31  59  24  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   71  29  59  21  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    71  31  59  21  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     74  37  59  33  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          74  34  60  27  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     76  36  61  31  64 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14

000
FXUS64 KEWX 231008
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
407 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009

.DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING HAVE LED TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
FOG HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO FORM ACROSS THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY THROUGH MID MORNING. ONCE FOG BURNS OFF...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE FOR MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH TEMPS
LOOKING TO BE ABOUT TEN DEGREES HIGHER THAN SUN.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL TX TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS NOT GREAT
WITH DEW POINTS CURRENTLY IN THE FORTIES AND EXPECTED ONLY TO
REACH AROUND 60 IN THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
THIS WILL MEAN FRONT WILL BE MAINLY DRY. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE
CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE SOUTH TUE MORNING. FRONT WILL BRING
COOLER AIR AND TEMPS WILL MODERATE TUE AND REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEK.

STARTING WED...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
ACROSS TX AND LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. SAT THE HIGH
WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OPENING UP THE GULF AND ALLOWING A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES SAT AND SUN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  52  66  44  68 /   0  20  10  10   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  75  52  66  39  69 /   0  20  10  10   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  53  66  43  70 /   0  20  20  10   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  48  64  41  66 /   0  20  10  10   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           75  52  66  46  69 /   0  10  20  10   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        73  50  65  42  67 /   0  20  10  10   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  52  65  43  70 /   0  20  20  10   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        75  52  64  42  68 /   0  20  10  10   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  53  64  42  67 /   0  20  20  10   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  54  67  45  69 /   0  20  20  10   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           74  54  67  44  69 /   0  20  20  10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...
GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...
KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...
UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.

&&

$$

05/10

000
FXUS64 KCRP 231008
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
408 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...FOG/LOW STRATUS IS FORMING
ACROSS S TX PER SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS. AM EXPECTING
THIS TREND TO CONTINUE TOWARD SUNRISE WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
DENSE FOG THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BY MID MORNING.
A SE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH AND USHER IN GULF MOISTURE
THRU THE DAY...LEADING TO A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY AND INCREASING
CLOUDS. RAIN CHCS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT MAINLY DUE TO INCREASING LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE LACKING. A COLD
FRONT IS PROGD TO MOVE INTO S TX BY EARLY TUE MORNING...HOWEVER
MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH. THE NAM IS
SLOWER AND WEAKER WHILE THE GFS IS FASTER WITH A STRONGER NLY WIND
IN ITS WAKE. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE FASTER GFS SOLN AND AM SHOWING
WINDS BACKING TO THE NE BETWEEN 06Z-12Z THEN STRENGTHENING THROUGH
18Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BLDS ACROSS S TX. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG AHD OF THE BDRY TONIGHT WITH THE INCREASING
CONVERGENCE...DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD
INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...THEREFORE AM NOT EXPECTING DENSE FOG
FOR TONIGHT. THE GFS SHOWS INCREASING CAPE AND DECREASING CIN AHD OF
THE BDRY AND WITH THE CONVERGENCE AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...SHOULD
PRODUCE SCT TO NUM SHRA`S/TSRA`S FOR TUE. THE HIGHER POPS SHIFT S AS
THE BDRY MOVES S. TSRA POTENTIAL DECREASES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE
LOSS OF CAPE WITH MAINLY RESIDUAL SHRA`S FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE
FRONT. GIVEN THE LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT WITH BOTH THE SUBTROPICAL JET
AND POLAR JET FAR REMOVED FROM S TX...AM NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR WX AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AHD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH EARLY TUE MORNING. A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN
ITS WAKE WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY BY TUE AFTERNOON. SCT TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHD AND ALONG THE COLD
FRONT THEN DECREASING BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...A DRY AND COOL AIRMASS
WL PREVAIL THROUGH FRI AS A PERSISTENT SFC RDG AXIS CONTINUES TO
BUILD INTO THE CWA.  TEMPS WL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE TO THE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS.
MOISTURE WL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE CWA BY LATE FRI AS THE MID/UPR RDG
AXIS WEAKENS AND PUSHES EAST OF THE CWA.  ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF A
DEEPENING MID/UPR TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE ROCKIES WL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED PCPN.  WL SHOW A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
BEGINNING ON FRI.  HOWEVER...THE THICKENING CLOUD CVR OVER THE
WEEKEND WL TEND TO HAMPER THE OVERALL WARMING TREND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  64  72  49  69  /  10  20  70  10   0
VICTORIA          77  58  67  42  67  /  10  20  60  10   0
LAREDO            82  64  70  47  73  /  10  20  50  10   0
ALICE             79  61  71  47  71  /  10  20  60  10   0
ROCKPORT          74  66  73  50  68  /  10  20  70  10   0
COTULLA           76  61  67  37  71  /  10  20  40  10   0
KINGSVILLE        79  64  72  47  70  /  10  20  70  10   0
NAVY CORPUS       75  67  74  55  68  /  10  30  70  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...LA
     SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...REFUGIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM
MB/80...LONG TERM

000
FXUS64 KBRO 230823
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
225 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009

.DISCUSSION...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNRISE...BRINGING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY...THEN HIGH CLOUDINESS
BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL REACH AROUND 80 DEGREES IN A WEAK SOUTHEAST
SFC WND. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE RGV TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...INITIATING NUMEROUS SHRAS/TSRAS. XPCT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUOYANCY (INSTABILITY) WILL NOT BE VERY HIGH THRU
FROPA BECAUSE OF POOR LLVL LAPSE RATES DURING THIS PD. WITH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR CONFINED NORTH OF OUR REGION LEAVING THE RGV WITH WEAK
SHEAR OF LESS THAN 30 KTS...SVR TSTM PROBABILITIES SHOULD REMAIN LOW
FOR THE VALLEY.

THE NEXT SUBSTANTIAL CHC FOR RAIN WILL ARRIVE NEXT MONDAY AS A BROAD
UPPER TROF DIGS TO SRN TX AND DRAGS ANOTHER CF THROUGH THE REGION.
EVEN WITH FROPA...TEMPS TO THE UPPER 70S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S
WILL BE THE NORM INCREASING BY THE WEEKEND.
&&

.MARINE...AT MIDNIGHT BUOY020 REPORTED SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 8KTS AND
SEAS 1 FOOT. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TODAY DUE TO INFLUENCE
FROM THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15
KNOTS NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE LAGUNA...AND 15 TO 20 KNOTS FURTHER
OFFSHORE. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING
AROUND NOON TUESDAY...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 25G30 KNOTS. SCA WILL
BE NEEDED FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL JUMP TO 7 TO 8
FEET IN THE GULF. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A SQUALL LINE FORECAST ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
PASSES. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BRIEFLY ON WEDNESDAY...BUT NORTH
WINDS AND INCREASED SEAS WILL AGAIN RETURN THURSDAY WITH A
REINFORCING SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS. SEAS THURSDAY MAY RETURN ABOVE
ADVISORY CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY IN THE WATERS PAST 20NM. SOUTHERLY
FLOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO RETURN UNTIL LATE FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS LOUISIANA.
&&

.AVIATION...VIS ONLY NOW STARTING TO FALL AS TEMPS HAVE NOT FALLEN
QUITE AS FAST AS EXPECTED. NEVERTHELESS...FOG IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
RESTRICTING VIS AREAWIDE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...ESPECIALLY
INLAND. FOG WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE/LIFT DURING THE MORNING
HOURS....WITH BKN CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. CIGS WILL RISE
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO FALL AGAIN AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...WITH AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND A LIKELY SQUALL
LINE FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  68  75  59 /  10  50  70  30
BROWNSVILLE          80  67  76  57 /  10  50  70  30
HARLINGEN            80  66  75  57 /  10  40  70  30
MCALLEN              82  66  75  54 /  10  30  60  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      81  63  70  51 /  10  20  60  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   79  66  75  60 /  10  50  70  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

58/64

000
FXUS64 KLUB 230600 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1200 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE...POTENTIALLY BECOMING GUSTY AT
TIMES. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN
THE PERIOD AROUND 00Z TUESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO A PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/

SHORT TERM...
SFC COLD FRONT HAS MADE ITS WAY THROUGH THE CWFA BUT IS NOT EXPECTED
TO WORK VERY MUCH FURTHER SOUTH OR EAST TODAY.  WINDS WILL DIMINISH
THROUGHOUT THE AFTN AND EVENING AND WILL VEER TO SWRLY AHEAD OF NEXT
FRONT DUE IN MONDAY AFTN.  OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH OTHER
THAN BREEZY AND COOLER POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS.

THE NAM...WHICH HAS BEEN HANDLING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FAIRLY WELL THE
PAST FEW DAYS...IS HINTING AT FOG DEVELOPING JUST TO OUR SOUTH
AROUND DAYBREAK.  WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT ON
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION EARLY MONDAY MORNING.  WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE
FAIRLY WELL AREAWIDE AND AS SUCH...WILL ADJUST LOWS DOWNWARD
ACCORDINGLY WITH THE MCLR SKIES EXPECTED.

INSOFAR AS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS GO...GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA WILL BE QUITE DRY. HOWEVER...WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN WELL UNDER CRITERIA AND THUS ONLY AN ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER DANGER SHOULD EXIST MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST DAYS 2 THROUGH 6. FLOW ALOFT WILL
GRADUALLY EVOLVE TO A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN BY
MIDWEEK. SFC RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA TUE/WED SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
JUST ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL...WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON TEMPS.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS FINALLY BEGINS TO BREAKDOWN/SHIFT EAST LATE IN
THE WEEK AS NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION. INCREASING SW FLOW AT SFC AND ALOFT WILL
LEAD INTO A WARMING TREND FRI/SAT ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME FIRE WX CONCERNS ON THE CAPROCK AS AIRMASS REMAINS DRY.
TOWARD THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
REGARDING THE TRACK ON THE STORM SYSTEM HEADING OUT OF THE PAC NW.
ECMWF AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE CMC BEGIN TO CUT OFF THE TROUGH
INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...WHILE THE GFS EJECTS
IT OUT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. ECMWF HAS BEEN HINTING AT THIS THE
PAST SEVERAL RUNS...AND HAS BETTER CONTINUITY THAN THE GFS. IN
FACT THE LATEST ECMWF TAKES THE CLOSED LOW SWD TO NRN MX BY TUE
MORN...AND IT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN IT IT WOULD HAVE MUCH IMPACT
ON OUR WX IF IT DOES STAY THAT FAR SOUTH AND WEST. STILL PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS LONG RANGE...BUT HAVE USED THE BETTER
PERFORMING ECMWF FOR WIND/TEMP/SKY COVER GRIDS NEXT SUNDAY...AND
RAISED POPS TO JUST BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        23  64  23  55  23 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         27  67  29  57  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     28  68  30  57  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     31  70  29  58  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       34  70  32  58  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   34  70  29  58  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    33  72  29  59  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     38  71  37  61  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          38  73  36  61  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     39  75  37  61  34 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AMP.22

000
FXUS64 KMAF 230547
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1147 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OF 10KT OR LESS WILL INCREASE TO 15
TO 20KT MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.  A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY EVENING...GENERALLY AFTER
24/00Z.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67

000
FXUS64 KEWX 230536
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1136 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
AREAS OF DENSE GROUND FOG COULD DEVELOP AS EARLY AS 7Z, WITH A
MORE CONTINUOUS DEVELOPMENT OF VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER
09Z. AFTER SPOTTY VLIFR CONDITIONS LINGER PAST DAYBREAK, AN
INCREASE IN DAYTIME SOUTH WINDS AND GULF MOISTURE DEPTH SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO IMPROVING VSBYS BY 15Z, AND A NORMAL INVERSION BURN-
OFF TIME OF 16-17Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT POTENTIAL THAT THE INCREASED
ONSHORE WIND AND MOISTURE COULD HOLD THE INVERSION IN PLACE TO
SUPPORT MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE MONDAY EVENING AS GULF MOISTURE BECOMES
DEEPER AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SOME PATCHY FOG COULD
STILL DEVELOP AFTER 06Z TUESDAY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR WHERE THE GRADIENT SHOULD STILL BE WEAKER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 925 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD DENSE FOG TO FORECAST AND ISSUE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY GIVEN A NEAR IDEAL SETUP LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
FORECAST EVENT. THERE IS NO AREA WITHIN OUR CWFA WHERE DENSE FOG
CAN BE RULED-OUT...BUT THE ONSET OF DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY OCCUR
OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND ALONG THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT PRIOR TO
THE REST OF THE AREA. ALSO MADE OTHER MINOR 1ST PERIOD TWEAKS
INCLUDING INCREASING MIN TEMPS IN A FEW SPOTS BY UP TO 4 DEGREES.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK.

NEW SUITE OF PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING BUT SOUNDING PROGS INDICATE RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL AGAIN CONDENSE THE GROUND BASED MOISTURE TO FOG LATE
TONIGHT..PATCHY GENERALLY WEST OF THE NORTH-SOUTH ESCARPMENT AND
MORE WIDESPREAD AND DENSE EAST OF THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED
ESCARPMENT. WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS..
AN AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS WILL FORM ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY TOMORROW MIDDAY AS GULF MOISTURE
IS ADVECTED NORTHWARD. A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. PLAINS WILL PUSH EAST TOMORROW NIGHT AS AN ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. GRADUAL
CLEARING FROM THE NORTH (HILL COUNTRY) TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO EJECT NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS A
DOWNSTREAM KICKER DIGS SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN U.S. PLAINS.
CLEARING AND COLDER TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH.
MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL WEDNESDAY WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
AND DRY WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A REINFORCEMENT OF THE RIDGE
IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVES CARVES ITS WAY
SOUTH INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOWS MAY APPROACH
FREEZING OVER PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY THANKSGIVING MORNING.
THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON WILL BE SUNNY AND MILD WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...ABOUT NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY
THEN AS THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE PUSHES EAST SATURDAY..ENHANCED
WESTERLIES ALOFT WILL INCREASE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND GULF MOISTURE
BRIEFLY BEFORE A WEAK FRONT PUSHES THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              50  76  53  67  46 /   0  -   20  20  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  48  75  52  66  41 /   0  -   20  20  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     50  76  52  65  43 /   0  -   20  20  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            49  73  50  64  40 /   0  -   20  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           49  76  53  66  44 /   0   0  10  30  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        50  74  51  65  42 /   0  -   20  20  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             49  76  55  66  41 /   0  -   20  30  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        50  76  51  65  45 /   0  -   20  20  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   50  75  54  64  43 /  -   -   20  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       51  77  55  67  46 /   0  -   20  20  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           50  76  55  66  45 /   0  -   20  30  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...
GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...
KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...
UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.

&&

$$

11/18

000
FXUS64 KSJT 230532
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1132 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...

SEE BELOW FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE 00Z FORECAST.
THE NAM MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER RH PROGS APPEAR TOO DRY FOR
WIDESPREAD STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND THE MOIST LAYER IS VERY SHALLOW
AND NOT AS SATURATED AS LAST NIGHT NEAR THE SURFACE. SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH A LIGHT MVFR FOG MENTION IN ALL THE TAFS EXCEPT
KABI. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT KJCT AND KBBD TOWARD 12Z WHEN THE
NAM FORECASTS THE TYPICAL STRATUS FORMATION ON THE ESCARPMENT AND
SPREADS IT NORTH AND EAST. STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH A
LOW CIG AND WILL STAY WITH CONSERVATIVE SCT CLOUD DECK. LOW LVL
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE MORE AGGRESSIVE AFT 00Z MONDAY NIGHT JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  43  77  43  62  34 /   0   0  10  10   0
SAN ANGELO  35  79  43  61  32 /   0   0  10  10   0
JUNCTION  40  75  45  67  30 /   0   0  20  20   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KFWD 230522 AAD
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1122 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.UPDATE...
BASED ON LATEST OBS...WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF
NORTH TEXAS THROUGH 9 AM. ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY REMAIN 3-5 KTS
OVERNIGHT...VSBYS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH
EARLY MORNING. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.

91/DUNN

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF LIGHT FOG ALREADY DEVELOPING AROUND DFW METRO AND POINTS
NORTH AND WEST. NOT COMING DOWN QUITE AS FAST DOWN SOUTH...BUT
BELIEVE IT WILL SOON. CHECK OF SOILS OUTSIDE INDICATE STILL VERY
WET AND WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT TRENDS FROM EARLIER UPDATE...INCLUDING
ADDING SOME LIFR TEMPO FOR KDFW...AND POSSIBLY KDAL AS WELL.

OTHERWISE...CONTINUITY OF PREVIOUS TAF FCSTS WILL BE HELD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ADDING FROPA TO KDFW IN THE 24-30 HR TIME FRAME AFTER
06Z TUES/MIDNIGHT TOMORROW NIGHT.

05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/
THE LOW CLOUDS THAT LINGERED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTH
TEXAS THIS MORNING HAVE DISSIPATED EXCEPT FOR A THIN BAND FROM
EAST OF BOWIE...TO HILLSBORO AS OF 21Z. THERE WAS WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG THIS MORNING. EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT... HOWEVER...WINDS SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE
MONDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY MONDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS THEN
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND. WE
WILL SEE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON THANKSGIVING DAY. MORNING LOWS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH
HIGHS JUST AROUND THE NORMALS.

58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  45  72  47  66  39 /   0   5  20   5   5
WACO, TX              46  73  50  67  41 /   0   5  20  10   5
PARIS, TX             45  69  47  63  39 /   0   5  30  20   5
DENTON, TX            42  72  44  66  35 /   0  10  20   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          44  71  44  66  36 /   0   5  20  10   5
DALLAS, TX            46  73  49  66  43 /   0   5  20   5   5
TERRELL, TX           45  72  49  66  41 /   0   5  30  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         46  73  49  66  41 /   0   5  30  20   5
TEMPLE, TX            46  73  51  66  38 /   0   5  20  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR TXZ091>095-101>107-
116>123-130>135-143>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KFWD 230511 AAD
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1111 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF LIGHT FOG ALREADY DEVELOPING AROUND DFW METRO AND POINTS
NORTH AND WEST. NOT COMING DOWN QUITE AS FAST DOWN SOUTH...BUT
BELIEVE IT WILL SOON. CHECK OF SOILS OUTSIDE INDICATE STILL VERY
WET AND WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT TRENDS FROM EARLIER UPDATE...INCLUDING
ADDING SOME LIFR TEMPO FOR KDFW...AND POSSIBLY KDAL AS WELL.

OTHERWISE...CONTINUITY OF PREVIOUS TAF FCSTS WILL BE HELD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ADDING FROPA TO KDFW IN THE 24-30 HR TIME FRAME AFTER
06Z TUES/MIDNIGHT TOMORROW NIGHT.

05/

&&

.UPDATE...
NORTH TEXAS BETWEEN SYSTEMS RIGHT NOW WITH TRANQUIL WX CONTINUING
THROUGH MONDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES NOW WITH LIGHT WINDS HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL A LITTLE FASTER THAN FORECAST SO WILL MAKE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS AND TWEAK LOWS DOWN A DEGREE OR
SO IN A FEW LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. WILL
SEE SOME FOG AGAIN TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH ATTM IT DOESNT APPEAR THAT
IT WILL BE QUITE AS DENSE GIVEN NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL BE HIGHER
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW OBS REPORTING 4-5SM ATTM BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG.

91/DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/
THE LOW CLOUDS THAT LINGERED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTH
TEXAS THIS MORNING HAVE DISSIPATED EXCEPT FOR A THIN BAND FROM
EAST OF BOWIE...TO HILLSBORO AS OF 21Z. THERE WAS WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG THIS MORNING. EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT... HOWEVER...WINDS SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE
MONDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY MONDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS THEN
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND. WE
WILL SEE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON THANKSGIVING DAY. MORNING LOWS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH
HIGHS JUST AROUND THE NORMALS.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  45  72  47  66  39 /   0   5  20   5   5
WACO, TX              46  73  50  67  41 /   0   5  20  10   5
PARIS, TX             45  69  47  63  39 /   0   5  30  20   5
DENTON, TX            42  72  44  66  35 /   0  10  20   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          44  71  44  66  36 /   0   5  20  10   5
DALLAS, TX            46  73  49  66  43 /   0   5  20   5   5
TERRELL, TX           45  72  49  66  41 /   0   5  30  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         46  73  49  66  41 /   0   5  30  20   5
TEMPLE, TX            46  73  51  66  38 /   0   5  20  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/91

000
FXUS64 KHGX 230504
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1104 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
STILL EXPECTING VSBYS TO DROP OVERNIGHT. VSBYS SHOULD VARY ACROSS
THE TAF SITES...BUT THINK MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY
SUNRISE. MAINLY VFR AFTER 15Z. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER THIS TAF PACKAGE EXPIRES. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 906 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/

UPDATE...
EVENING FORECAST UPDATE. DENSE FOG ADVISORY ISSUED FOR TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL AND CALM WINDS WILL PROVIDE
EXCELLENT CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FOG FORMATION.
LOOKING AT THE 00Z CRP SOUNDING AND AREA OBSERVATIONS...EVEN
DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FEW SITES AT 03Z ARE SHOWING FOG
FORMATION WITH K6R3 (CLEVELAND TX) ALREADY AT A QUARTER MILE VIS.
UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. UPDATED FORECAST
HAS ALREADY BEEN SENT. OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS
ON TRACK WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY AND A COOL FINISH TO
THE WEEK OVER THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/

&&

DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH ACROSS SE TX THIS AFTN RESULTING IN VERY PLEASANT WEATHER
WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPERATURES. THE COMBINATION OF
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND
WET GROUND CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN A VERY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. HAVE PLACED DENSE FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR
ALL OF SE TX IN THE 06-15Z TIME FRAME. WILL LIKELY NEED AN
ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA BUT WILL DEFER TO EVENING SHIFT
TO MAKE THIS DECISION. ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF MONDAY WILL BE
ANOTHER VERY NICE DAY. EXPECT LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND MILD
TEMPERATURES...WITH A FEW CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTN AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEGINS TO SLOWLY RETURN.

UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE DIFFLUENT
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING...BUT BEST JET DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL
NORTH. MOISTURE RETURN IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY MODEST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET NEVER GETS FULLY ESTABLISHED. PWS
WILL INCREASE TO 1.1-1.3 INCHES. CLOUDS WILL FILL IN MONDAY NIGHT
WITH A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL
HAVE 40-60 POPS BLANKETED AREA WIDE TUESDAY. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE
OVER COASTAL ZONES/OFFSHORE WHERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER PWS ARE
FORECAST. THE LATEST NAM/ECMWF RUNS CONTINUE TO BE 3 TO 6 HOURS
SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...NOT HAVING IT
OFF THE COAST UNTIL LATE AFTN. HAVE KEPT PRECIP GOING INTO THE
EARLY EVENING FOR COASTAL ZONES AS A RESULT. EXPECT MOSTLY LIGHT
SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER. SKIES WILL CLEAR RAPIDLY
TUESDAY EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. FOLLOWING THE FROPA...NICE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY PERIOD (WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY). FLOW ALOFT BECOMES NORTHERLY WITH SFC HIGH
BEING REINFORCED BY A COUPLE OF DRY FRONTAL PASSAGES. EXPECT
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S.
MINS IN THE 30S WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN RURAL AREAS OVER THE NE
ZONES...WITH THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKING LIKE THE COOLEST NIGHT. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOT OF DIFFERENCES NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH ECMWF FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG UPPER
LOW WEST OF THE STATE AND GFS SHOWING A CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT.
FOR NOW HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE DRIER 12Z GFS WHICH HAS SUPPORT OF
THE ENSEMBLE MEAN. GIVEN THIS SOLUTION A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PASS THROUGH SUNDAY...AND HAVE 20 POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS.

35

MARINE...
QUIET/MOSTLY CALM CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THE NEXT DAY OR
SO WITH HIGH PRESSURE AS THE MAIN INFLUENCE. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA...ONSHORE WINDS TO RETURN TOMORROW. OUR NEXT COLD FRONT
STILL SLATED FOR TUE...BUT THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES
(GFS JUST A TAD FASTER THAN NAM). BUT WE SHOULD SEE MODERATE/STRONG
NY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BY TUE NIGHT...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
SCA FLAGS. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD WEAKEN BY WED NIGHT BUT STAY FROM THE
N/NE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.  41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      48  74  54  66  44 /   0   0  30  40  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              48  74  57  72  45 /   0   0  20  40  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            55  71  63  74  53 /   0   0  20  50  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...43

000
FXUS64 KAMA 230501 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1101 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES BY EARLY
MONDAY AND THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MONDAY EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED.
THE BIGGEST CONCERNS WILL BE THE WINDS AND TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT.
IT APPEARS NOW THAT THE COLD FRONT MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL AROUND 18Z
MONDAY FOR THE GUYMON AND DALHART TAF SITES...AND AROUND 19Z TO 21Z
MONDAY FOR THE AMARILLO TAF SITE. AS A RESULT...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST
AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS PRIOR TO THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WINDS MAY DIMINISH AFTER 00Z TUESDAY TO AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH SOME POSSIBLE HIGHER GUSTS.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1046 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/

UPDATE...
MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE MIDNIGHT WORDING FOR THE FIRST PERIOD.
WINDS ARE STILL FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BUT GENERALLY SHOWING A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. SO EVERYTHING ELSE LOOKED TO BE ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 514 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/

AVIATION...
A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW EARLY TONIGHT WILL TRANSITION TO ZONAL LATE
TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES SOUTH
AND EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND INTO THE PLAINS STATES
MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PERSISTING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME
NORTH TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AND INCREASE 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 13Z AND 17Z MONDAY. THE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY 00Z TUESDAY.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 138 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/

DISCUSSION...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A TRAIN OF LOWS ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND ONTO THE PLAINS. ONE SUCH LOW IS FOUND JUST EAST OF
DDC. THE NEXT LOW IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE ROCKIES
AND INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW WILL DIVE
SOUTH SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS IOWA ON WEDNESDAY.

EACH ONE OF THESE LOWS WILL HELP TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES. EACH FRONT LOOKS TO BE DRY FOR US.

UPPER FLOW WILL THEN START TO AMPLIFY SOME TOWARD THANKSGIVING AND
THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE ROCKIES AND WILL MOVE OVER THE PLAINS BY FRIDAY CAUSING
A WARMING TREND FOR THE PANHANDLES. THEN THE RIDGE WILL START TO
REDEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC/WEST COAST OF THE U.S. THE
PANHANDLES WILL THEN BE UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CANADIAN AIR TO FILTER SOUTHWARD INTO
PANHANDLES FOR LATE IN THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND. WE ALSO ADDED SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON SUNDAY WHICH IS MOST IN LINE
WITH THE ECMWF MODEL. THIS MODEL HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS.

THANKS FOR THE COORDINATION ABQ...PUB AND LUB.

FIRE WEATHER...
WINDS WILL GET STRONG AT TIMES THIS WEEK. BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONTS...WHICH MEANS THAT THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY SHOULD BE HIGHER. THEREFORE...THE INGREDIENTS NEEDED FOR A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY DO NOT LOOK LIKELY.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/14

000
FXUS64 KCRP 230457 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1057 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...SKIES STILL CLEAR ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THOUGH THIS WILL
BEGIN TO CHANGE AFTER APPROXIMATELY 08Z WHEN LIFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN AREA-
WIDE AFTER 16Z MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 902 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/

DISCUSSION...SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS IN THE LATE
EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS PREVAILING AND SURFACE DEW POINTS
GENERALLY RUNNING IN THE 50S. FOLLOWING TRENDS FROM LAST NIGHT,
HAVE EXPANDED CURRENT DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO INCLUDE DUVAL AND JIM
WELLS COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH APPROXIMATELY SUNRISE
MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, ADJUSTED SOME LOW TEMPERATURES UPWARD A
LITTLE, ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. REMAINDER OF FORECAST ELEMENTS LOOK ON TRACK SO NO
OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 06-09Z FROM
ALI TO VCT WITH LIFR VSBYS. VSBYS WILL ALSO DROP BETWEEN 09-14Z FOR
LRD AND CRP BEFORE CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ON
MONDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...LAST OF THE LOW
CLOUDS HAVE DIMINISHED AROUND COTULLA...OTHERWISE SKIES
ARE CLEAR. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S IN THE PACIFIC AIR MASS AND
SURFACE HIGH RIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA THE STAGE IS SET
FOR QUICK COOLING TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR AND MODEL PROGS DEPICT
DRY AIR ALOFT AND SOLID INVERSION IN PLACE. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FROM COTULLA TO VICTORIA TO PORT OCONNER. ELSEWHERE
FOG WILL BE PATCHY AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD DEVELOP
STRATUS IN THE RIO GRANDE LATE TONIGHT...THUS A COMBINATION IS
EXPECTED THERE. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS OVER THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE REGION
ON MONDAY SO STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BUT INCREASED
SOUTHERLY SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL FLOW AND 850 MB MOISTURE ALSO
INCREASES. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS ON
MONDAY AND WITH BETTER MIXING MID TO UPPER 70S WIDESPREAD AND
LOWER 80S FOR LAREDO AS LONG AS STRATUS LIFTS TO HIGHER DECK.

FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT BUT
LIMITED MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS
THE FRONT TO COT TO VCT LINE AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. THIS WILL
DECREASE THE LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH FLOW AND TURN SOUTHWESTERLY
ALOFT. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH SOUTH LOW LEVEL
FLOW THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE NEARSHORE
WATERS AND SPREAD INLAND...MAINLY CRP TO PORT OCCONNOR. SOUNDINGS
REFLECT MID LEVEL CAP OVERNIGHT SO LIMITED THUNDER TO AFTER
12Z TUESDAY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND DECREASING WIND WITH
LITTLE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME FOG FOR
NORTHERN AREAS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MAIN ISSUES ARE THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT ON TUESDAY...POPS ASSOCIATED WITH IT...THEN WHETHER NEXT
FRONT WILL COME DOWN NEXT SUNDAY OR NOT. GFS IS FASTEST WITH FRONT
AND NAM LOOKS TO BE TOO SLOW...WILL LEAN A BIT MORE TOWARD THE GFS
SOLUTION AND HAVE THE FRONT NEAR THE SOUTH SIDE OF CORPUS AROUND
NOON. MAIN FORCING WILL BE WITH THE FRONT. GFS HAS KIND OF LEANED
OFF THE STRONG INSTABILITY...GIVEN FASTER MOVEMENT. HOWEVER...
APPEARS ENOUGH OF POOLING OF MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE AND IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TO WARRANT LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. FARTHER
NORTH AND WEST...MAY BE A BIT TRICKIER GIVEN THAT MOISTURE ADVECTION
BECOMES NEGATIVE OVER THE NORTHWEST AND THERE IS LITTLE IF ANY OVER
THE NORTHEAST. STILL...THINK FRONT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE
SOME SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST...SO KEPT HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY POPS
OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SAME POP VALUE OVER THE SOUTHEAST...BUT
FARTHER WEST LOWERED POPS JUST ABOUT 10 PERCENT. DID MENTION THUNDER
BUT MAINLY OVER THE EAST (SLIGHT CHANCE NORTHWEST). ALSO...HAVE A
SMALL/SLIGHT TREND OF LOWER POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD HAVE
RAIN ENDING ALL INLAND AREAS (DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE NEAR COAST FOR
THE EVENING) BUT AFTER THAT SHOULD BE HIGH AND DRY THROUGH SATURDAY.
BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND FRONT MOST AREAS ON TUESDAY GIVEN STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT. DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY FILTER IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE.
EXPECTING COOL NIGHTS AND PLEASANT DAYS THROUGH FRIDAY...AS ANOTHER
SURFACE HIGH COMES IN AROUND THURSDAY TO KEEP THINGS COOL AT NIGHT
AND MILD DURING THE DAY. SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY AND
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL THUS RETURN...SO WARM UP WILL ENSUE BUT
MAINLY IN MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. NEXT QUESTION IS WHETHER ANOTHER
FRONT WILL MOVE IN ON SUNDAY OR STAY TO THE NORTH TIL MONDAY. GFS
MOVES IT DOWN...ECMWF DOES NOT. FOR NOW...WILL HOLD OFF ON THE FRONT
COMING DOWN ON SUNDAY AND GO WITH ECMWF...MEANING WARMER YET ON
SUNDAY (BELIEVE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWER THAN GFS HAS).
OVERALL...WENT ON LOW SIDE OR COOLER THAN GUIDANCE...MAINLY FOR
LOWS...THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...THEN GO ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
AFTER THAT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    54  78  64  72  52  /  10  10  20  70  20
VICTORIA          50  77  58  67  46  /   0  10  30  60  10
LAREDO            57  82  64  70  51  /   0  10  20  50  10
ALICE             52  79  62  72  49  /  10  10  20  60  20
ROCKPORT          58  74  66  73  54  /   0  10  30  70  20
COTULLA           51  75  62  67  47  /   0  10  30  40  10
KINGSVILLE        54  79  64  76  51  /  10  10  20  70  20
NAVY CORPUS       58  75  67  74  56  /  10  10  30  70  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...LA
     SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...REFUGIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

JAR/19...SHORT TERM/AVIATION
RG/82...LONG TERM

000
FXUS64 KAMA 230446 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1046 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.UPDATE...
MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE MIDNIGHT WORDING FOR THE FIRST PERIOD.
WINDS ARE STILL FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BUT GENERALLY SHOWING A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. SO EVERYTHING ELSE LOOKED TO BE ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 514 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/

AVIATION...
A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW EARLY TONIGHT WILL TRANSITION TO ZONAL LATE
TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES SOUTH
AND EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND INTO THE PLAINS STATES
MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PERSISTING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME
NORTH TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AND INCREASE 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 13Z AND 17Z MONDAY. THE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY 00Z TUESDAY.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 138 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/

DISCUSSION...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A TRAIN OF LOWS ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND ONTO THE PLAINS. ONE SUCH LOW IS FOUND JUST EAST OF
DDC. THE NEXT LOW IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE ROCKIES
AND INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW WILL DIVE
SOUTH SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS IOWA ON WEDNESDAY.

EACH ONE OF THESE LOWS WILL HELP TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES. EACH FRONT LOOKS TO BE DRY FOR US.

UPPER FLOW WILL THEN START TO AMPLIFY SOME TOWARD THANKSGIVING AND
THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE ROCKIES AND WILL MOVE OVER THE PLAINS BY FRIDAY CAUSING
A WARMING TREND FOR THE PANHANDLES. THEN THE RIDGE WILL START TO
REDEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC/WEST COAST OF THE U.S. THE
PANHANDLES WILL THEN BE UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CANADIAN AIR TO FILTER SOUTHWARD INTO
PANHANDLES FOR LATE IN THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND. WE ALSO ADDED SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON SUNDAY WHICH IS MOST IN LINE
WITH THE ECMWF MODEL. THIS MODEL HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS.

THANKS FOR THE COORDINATION ABQ...PUB AND LUB.

FIRE WEATHER...
WINDS WILL GET STRONG AT TIMES THIS WEEK. BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONTS...WHICH MEANS THAT THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY SHOULD BE HIGHER. THEREFORE...THE INGREDIENTS NEEDED FOR A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY DO NOT LOOK LIKELY.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/14

000
FXUS64 KFWD 230354 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
954 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.AVIATION...
AS SUSPECTED...SEEMS SIMILAR TRENDS TO LAST NIGHT ARE OCCURRING...YET
MAY EVEN BE DEVELOPING EARLIER MAINLY BECAUSE THE LOW CLOUDS JUST
WEST OF I-35 ARE NOT THERE THIS TIME. WILL GO WITH CWSU LATEST
UPDATE TRENDS TO START MVFR AROUND 06Z/MIDNIGHT...THEN TREND TO
IFR CONDITIONS BY 09Z...WITH TEMPO LIFR AT MEACHAM...ALLIANCE...AND
WACO WHERE MORE POTENTIAL FOR SATURATION ON THE SHALLOW SFC
INVERSION WILL LIKELY OCCUR. OPPOSITE AFFECT FOR DAL LOVE FIELD
AND WILL ONLY GO MVFR WITH A BRIEF TEMPO IFR AROUND 12Z/DAYBREAK.

05/

&&

.../PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION/...
SIMILAR TO 24 HRS AGO...HAVE LITTLE FAITH IN OVERALL MOS GUIDANCE
AND CONDITIONAL CLIMO TRENDS...AS SOIL MOISTURE STILL LIKELY ON
MOIST SIDE WITH LIGHT S/SE WINDS AND RADIATIONAL COOLING/STRONG
SFC INVERSION EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. MOS GUIDANCE/CONDITIONAL CLIMO
DON`T PICK UP ON SOIL MOISTURE AND ARE DEPENDENT ON ATMOSPHERIC
PARAMETERS. PLUS...EVIDENCE OF BOUNDARY LYR MOISTURE FROM EARLIER
MVFR CIGS REMAINS FROM I-35 AND WEST.

WILL CONTINUE MVFR MENTION FOR D/FW AIRPORTS AROUND DAYBREAK AND
HAVE SOME MVFR/TEMPO IFR VSBYS WACO AREA WITH THE LGT WINDS. IF WE
GO COMPLETELY CALM HOWEVER...THEN FOG MAY BE SHALLOW AND PRETTY
THICK PER MODEL BUFFER SOUNDING PROFILES. SLY FLOW INCREASES TO
10-13 KTS BY MIDDAY MON WITH VFR CONDITIONS. FLOW SLOWLY VEERS 5-7
KTS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT BY 03Z/MON EVENING AFTER FOR THE D/FW
24-30 FCST AND HAVE THROWN IN VCSH FOR A FEW SHOWERS. FRONT WILL
ARRIVE BEFORE DAWN TUES MORNING.

05/

&&

.UPDATE...
NORTH TEXAS BETWEEN SYSTEMS RIGHT NOW WITH TRANQUIL WX CONTINUING
THROUGH MONDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES NOW WITH LIGHT WINDS HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL A LITTLE FASTER THAN FORECAST SO WILL MAKE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS AND TWEAK LOWS DOWN A DEGREE OR
SO IN A FEW LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. WILL
SEE SOME FOG AGAIN TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH ATTM IT DOESNT APPEAR THAT
IT WILL BE QUITE AS DENSE GIVEN NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL BE HIGHER
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW OBS REPORTING 4-5SM ATTM BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG.

91/DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/
THE LOW CLOUDS THAT LINGERED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTH
TEXAS THIS MORNING HAVE DISSIPATED EXCEPT FOR A THIN BAND FROM
EAST OF BOWIE...TO HILLSBORO AS OF 21Z. THERE WAS WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG THIS MORNING. EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT... HOWEVER...WINDS SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE
MONDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY MONDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS THEN
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND. WE
WILL SEE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON THANKSGIVING DAY. MORNING LOWS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH
HIGHS JUST AROUND THE NORMALS.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  45  72  47  66  39 /   0   5  20   5   5
WACO, TX              46  73  50  67  41 /   0   5  20  10   5
PARIS, TX             45  69  47  63  39 /   0   5  30  20   5
DENTON, TX            42  72  44  66  35 /   0  10  20   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          44  71  44  66  36 /   0   5  20  10   5
DALLAS, TX            46  73  49  66  43 /   0   5  20   5   5
TERRELL, TX           45  72  49  66  41 /   0   5  30  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         46  73  49  66  41 /   0   5  30  20   5
TEMPLE, TX            46  73  51  66  38 /   0   5  20  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/91

000
FXUS64 KSJT 230346
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
946 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.UPDATE...
WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES IN THE CONCHO VALLEY AND N EDWARDS
PLATEAU TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WITH WEAK MOISTURE RETURN AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID 30S FROM CONCHO VALLEY SOUTHWARD TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/

DISCUSSION...

SEE BELOW FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...A TRICKY FORECAST
LIES AHEAD FOR TONIGHT. THE LATEST 18Z NAM FORECASTS A DRIER
BOUNDARY LAYER FOR THE OVERNIGHT AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
NIGHTS...AND THE NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF
MOISTURE NEAR THE SFC. AS A RESULT...I`M NOT AS CONFIDENT THAT
THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND INSTEAD WILL
FORECAST SOME LIGHT MVFR GROUND FOG. I CAN`T RULE OUT A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR VSBYS BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH THIS FAR OUT
TO INCLUDE IT IN THE TAFS.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/

SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS....WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS MUCH
OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME
MOISTURE RETURN.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS  AND THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT.EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT BUT THIS
COMBINED WITH INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MOISTURE THINK
TONIGHTS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARMER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...WHICH
IS STILL A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN GUIDANCE. LOOKING AT BUFKIT AND
LATEST NAMBFR SOUNDINGS HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR
EARLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY ...HEARTLAND AND
SOUTHWARD. THE MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE TOO SHALLOW TO MAKE IT PAST
THE HILLS OF THE BIG COUNTRY.

FOR MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ISN`T EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS UNTIL LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT COMPRESSIONAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WARMING UP TO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

LONG TERM...
BY MONDAY EVENING...A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE
DRIVING SOUTH THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS OF TEXAS. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
SHALLOW ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH...ARGUING AGAINST
RAISING POPS IN OUR AREA AND SUGGESTING THAN ANY PRECIP WE SEE
ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIP WORDING. WITH THE
MOISTURE PILING UP SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20...WE MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...MODELS DO SHOW ENOUGH WIND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AT THIS TIME TO HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION FOR NOW.

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. MANY AREAS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE CLOSE TO FREEZING TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
REBOUND INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S ON WEDNESDAY FROM THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S TUESDAY. AS A TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...SFC RIDGING WILL BE
REINFORCED ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SFC RIDGING...SO
MAIN EFFECTS WILL BE EASTERLY SFC FLOW.

FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY DRY WITH SEASONAL VALUES
FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...LARGE
MODEL DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP LATE IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...WHILE THE GFS JUST HAS NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. AND TEXAS. WILL ONLY INCREASE POP VALUES TO 10 TO 14
PERCENT FOR THE TIME PERIOD AND WAIT FOR MODELS TO COME TO BETTER
AGREEMENT BEFORE ADDING ANY PRECIP TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  43  77  43  62  34 /   0   0  10  10   0
SAN ANGELO  35  79  43  61  32 /   0   0  10  10   0
JUNCTION  40  75  45  67  30 /   0   0  20  20   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/04

000
FXUS64 KEWX 230325 AAB
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
925 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD DENSE FOG TO FORECAST AND ISSUE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY GIVEN A NEAR IDEAL SETUP LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
FORECAST EVENT. THERE IS NO AREA WITHIN OUR CWFA WHERE DENSE FOG
CAN BE RULED-OUT...BUT THE ONSET OF DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY OCCUR
OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND ALONG THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT PRIOR TO
THE REST OF THE AREA. ALSO MADE OTHER MINOR 1ST PERIOD TWEAKS
INCLUDING INCREASING MIN TEMPS IN A FEW SPOTS BY UP TO 4 DEGREES.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK.

NEW SUITE OF PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
AREA TERMINALS SHOW DEWPOINTS AROUND 50 DEGREES TO SUGGEST ANOTHER
NIGHT OF PATCHY DENSE FOG AND LIGHT WINDS. ABUNDANT GROUND
MOISTURE COULD MAKE FOR SPOTTY DENSE GROUND FOG AREAS AS EARLY AS
MIDNIGHT, BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE VSBYS DROP AFTER 08Z. AFTER
SPOTTY VLIFR CONDITIONS LINGER INTO DAYBREAK, AN INCREASE IN
DAYTIME WINDS AND GULF MOISTURE DEPTH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
IMPROVING VSBYS BY 15Z, AND A NORMAL INVERSION BURN-OFF TIME OF
16-17Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT POTENTIAL THAT THE INCREASED ONSHORE
WIND AND MOISTURE COULD HOLD THE INVERSION IN PLACE TO SUPPORT
MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING BUT SOUNDING PROGS INDICATE RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL AGAIN CONDENSE THE GROUND BASED MOISTURE TO FOG LATE
TONIGHT..PATCHY GENERALLY WEST OF THE NORTH-SOUTH ESCARPMENT AND
MORE WIDESPREAD AND DENSE EAST OF THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED
ESCARPMENT. WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS..
AN AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS WILL FORM ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY TOMORROW MIDDAY AS GULF MOISTURE
IS ADVECTED NORTHWARD. A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. PLAINS WILL PUSH EAST TOMORROW NIGHT AS AN ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. GRADUAL
CLEARING FROM THE NORTH (HILL COUNTRY) TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO EJECT NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS A
DOWNSTREAM KICKER DIGS SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN U.S. PLAINS.
CLEARING AND COLDER TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH.
MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL WEDNESDAY WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
AND DRY WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A REINFORCEMENT OF THE RIDGE
IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVES CARVES ITS WAY
SOUTH INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOWS MAY APPROACH
FREEZING OVER PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY THANKSGIVING MORNING.
THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON WILL BE SUNNY AND MILD WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...ABOUT NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY
THEN AS THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE PUSHES EAST SATURDAY..ENHANCED
WESTERLIES ALOFT WILL INCREASE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND GULF MOISTURE
BRIEFLY BEFORE A WEAK FRONT PUSHES THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              50  76  53  67  46 /   0  -   20  20  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  48  75  52  66  41 /   0  -   20  20  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     50  76  52  65  43 /   0  -   20  20  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            49  73  50  64  40 /   0  -   20  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           49  76  53  66  44 /   0   0  10  30  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        50  74  51  65  42 /   0  -   20  20  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             49  76  55  66  41 /   0  -   20  30  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        50  76  51  65  45 /   0  -   20  20  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   50  75  54  64  43 /  -   -   20  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       51  77  55  67  46 /   0  -   20  20  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           50  76  55  66  45 /   0  -   20  30  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...
GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...
KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...
UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.

&&

$$

11/18/JB

000
FXUS64 KHGX 230306
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
906 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.UPDATE...
EVENING FORECAST UPDATE. DENSE FOG ADVISORY ISSUED FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL AND CALM WINDS WILL PROVIDE
EXCELLENT CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FOG FORMATION.
LOOKING AT THE 00Z CRP SOUNDING AND AREA OBSERVATIONS...EVEN
DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FEW SITES AT 03Z ARE SHOWING FOG
FORMATION WITH K6R3 (CLEVELAND TX) ALREADY AT A QUARTER MILE VIS.
UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. UPDATED FORECAST
HAS ALREADY BEEN SENT. OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS
ON TRACK WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY AND A COOL FINISH TO
THE WEEK OVER THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR THIS EVENING BUT AM EXPECTING PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING BETWEEN
06-09Z ACROSS THE TAF SITES. FOG SHOULD BE SHALLOW AND BURN OFF
QUICKLY AROUND 14Z. WINDS WILL BECOME E-SE ON MONDAY BUT OVERALL
SKY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR. 43

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/

DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH ACROSS SE TX THIS AFTN RESULTING IN VERY PLEASANT WEATHER
WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPERATURES. THE COMBINATION OF
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND
WET GROUND CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN A VERY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. HAVE PLACED DENSE FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR
ALL OF SE TX IN THE 06-15Z TIME FRAME. WILL LIKELY NEED AN
ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA BUT WILL DEFER TO EVENING SHIFT
TO MAKE THIS DECISION. ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF MONDAY WILL BE
ANOTHER VERY NICE DAY. EXPECT LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND MILD
TEMPERATURES...WITH A FEW CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTN AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEGINS TO SLOWLY RETURN.

UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE DIFFLUENT
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING...BUT BEST JET DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL
NORTH. MOISTURE RETURN IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY MODEST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET NEVER GETS FULLY ESTABLISHED. PWS
WILL INCREASE TO 1.1-1.3 INCHES. CLOUDS WILL FILL IN MONDAY NIGHT
WITH A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL
HAVE 40-60 POPS BLANKETED AREA WIDE TUESDAY. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE
OVER COASTAL ZONES/OFFSHORE WHERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER PWS ARE
FORECAST. THE LATEST NAM/ECMWF RUNS CONTINUE TO BE 3 TO 6 HOURS
SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...NOT HAVING IT
OFF THE COAST UNTIL LATE AFTN. HAVE KEPT PRECIP GOING INTO THE
EARLY EVENING FOR COASTAL ZONES AS A RESULT. EXPECT MOSTLY LIGHT
SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER. SKIES WILL CLEAR RAPIDLY
TUESDAY EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. FOLLOWING THE FROPA...NICE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY PERIOD (WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY). FLOW ALOFT BECOMES NORTHERLY WITH SFC HIGH
BEING REINFORCED BY A COUPLE OF DRY FRONTAL PASSAGES. EXPECT
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S.
MINS IN THE 30S WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN RURAL AREAS OVER THE NE
ZONES...WITH THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKING LIKE THE COOLEST NIGHT. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOT OF DIFFERENCES NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH ECMWF FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG UPPER
LOW WEST OF THE STATE AND GFS SHOWING A CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT.
FOR NOW HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE DRIER 12Z GFS WHICH HAS SUPPORT OF
THE ENSEMBLE MEAN. GIVEN THIS SOLUTION A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PASS THROUGH SUNDAY...AND HAVE 20 POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS.

35

MARINE...
QUIET/MOSTLY CALM CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THE NEXT DAY OR
SO WITH HIGH PRESSURE AS THE MAIN INFLUENCE. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA...ONSHORE WINDS TO RETURN TOMORROW. OUR NEXT COLD FRONT
STILL SLATED FOR TUE...BUT THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES
(GFS JUST A TAD FASTER THAN NAM). BUT WE SHOULD SEE MODERATE/STRONG
NY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BY TUE NIGHT...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
SCA FLAGS. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD WEAKEN BY WED NIGHT BUT STAY FROM THE
N/NE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.  41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      48  74  54  66  44 /   0   0  30  40  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              48  74  57  72  45 /   0   0  20  40  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            55  71  63  74  53 /   0   0  20  50  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...
     BURLESON...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...
     GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...
     MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...
     WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION...43

000
FXUS64 KCRP 230302 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
902 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS IN THE LATE
EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS PREVAILING AND SURFACE DEW POINTS
GENERALLY RUNNING IN THE 50S. FOLLOWING TRENDS FROM LAST NIGHT,
HAVE EXPANDED CURRENT DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO INCLUDE DUVAL AND JIM
WELLS COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH APPROXIMATELY SUNRISE
MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, ADJUSTED SOME LOW TEMPERATURES UPWARD A
LITTLE, ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. REMAINDER OF FORECAST ELEMENTS LOOK ON TRACK SO NO
OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 06-09Z FROM
ALI TO VCT WITH LIFR VSBYS. VSBYS WILL ALSO DROP BETWEEN 09-14Z FOR
LRD AND CRP BEFORE CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ON
MONDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...LAST OF THE LOW
CLOUDS HAVE DIMINISHED AROUND COTULLA...OTHERWISE SKIES
ARE CLEAR. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S IN THE PACIFIC AIR MASS AND
SURFACE HIGH RIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA THE STAGE IS SET
FOR QUICK COOLING TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR AND MODEL PROGS DEPICT
DRY AIR ALOFT AND SOLID INVERSION IN PLACE. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FROM COTULLA TO VICTORIA TO PORT OCONNER. ELSEWHERE
FOG WILL BE PATCHY AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD DEVELOP
STRATUS IN THE RIO GRANDE LATE TONIGHT...THUS A COMBINATION IS
EXPECTED THERE. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS OVER THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE REGION
ON MONDAY SO STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BUT INCREASED
SOUTHERLY SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL FLOW AND 850 MB MOISTURE ALSO
INCREASES. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS ON
MONDAY AND WITH BETTER MIXING MID TO UPPER 70S WIDESPREAD AND
LOWER 80S FOR LAREDO AS LONG AS STRATUS LIFTS TO HIGHER DECK.

FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT BUT
LIMITED MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS
THE FRONT TO COT TO VCT LINE AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. THIS WILL
DECREASE THE LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH FLOW AND TURN SOUTHWESTERLY
ALOFT. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH SOUTH LOW LEVEL
FLOW THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE NEARSHORE
WATERS AND SPREAD INLAND...MAINLY CRP TO PORT OCCONNOR. SOUNDINGS
REFLECT MID LEVEL CAP OVERNIGHT SO LIMITED THUNDER TO AFTER
12Z TUESDAY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND DECREASING WIND WITH
LITTLE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME FOG FOR
NORTHERN AREAS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MAIN ISSUES ARE THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT ON TUESDAY...POPS ASSOCIATED WITH IT...THEN WHETHER NEXT
FRONT WILL COME DOWN NEXT SUNDAY OR NOT. GFS IS FASTEST WITH FRONT
AND NAM LOOKS TO BE TOO SLOW...WILL LEAN A BIT MORE TOWARD THE GFS
SOLUTION AND HAVE THE FRONT NEAR THE SOUTH SIDE OF CORPUS AROUND
NOON. MAIN FORCING WILL BE WITH THE FRONT. GFS HAS KIND OF LEANED
OFF THE STRONG INSTABILITY...GIVEN FASTER MOVEMENT. HOWEVER...
APPEARS ENOUGH OF POOLING OF MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE AND IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TO WARRANT LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. FARTHER
NORTH AND WEST...MAY BE A BIT TRICKIER GIVEN THAT MOISTURE ADVECTION
BECOMES NEGATIVE OVER THE NORTHWEST AND THERE IS LITTLE IF ANY OVER
THE NORTHEAST. STILL...THINK FRONT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE
SOME SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST...SO KEPT HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY POPS
OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SAME POP VALUE OVER THE SOUTHEAST...BUT
FARTHER WEST LOWERED POPS JUST ABOUT 10 PERCENT. DID MENTION THUNDER
BUT MAINLY OVER THE EAST (SLIGHT CHANCE NORTHWEST). ALSO...HAVE A
SMALL/SLIGHT TREND OF LOWER POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD HAVE
RAIN ENDING ALL INLAND AREAS (DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE NEAR COAST FOR
THE EVENING) BUT AFTER THAT SHOULD BE HIGH AND DRY THROUGH SATURDAY.
BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND FRONT MOST AREAS ON TUESDAY GIVEN STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT. DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY FILTER IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE.
EXPECTING COOL NIGHTS AND PLEASANT DAYS THROUGH FRIDAY...AS ANOTHER
SURFACE HIGH COMES IN AROUND THURSDAY TO KEEP THINGS COOL AT NIGHT
AND MILD DURING THE DAY. SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY AND
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL THUS RETURN...SO WARM UP WILL ENSUE BUT
MAINLY IN MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. NEXT QUESTION IS WHETHER ANOTHER
FRONT WILL MOVE IN ON SUNDAY OR STAY TO THE NORTH TIL MONDAY. GFS
MOVES IT DOWN...ECMWF DOES NOT. FOR NOW...WILL HOLD OFF ON THE FRONT
COMING DOWN ON SUNDAY AND GO WITH ECMWF...MEANING WARMER YET ON
SUNDAY (BELIEVE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWER THAN GFS HAS).
OVERALL...WENT ON LOW SIDE OR COOLER THAN GUIDANCE...MAINLY FOR
LOWS...THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...THEN GO ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
AFTER THAT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    54  78  64  72  52  /  10  10  20  70  20
VICTORIA          50  77  58  67  46  /   0  10  30  60  10
LAREDO            57  82  64  70  51  /   0  10  20  50  10
ALICE             52  79  62  72  49  /  10  10  20  60  20
ROCKPORT          58  74  66  73  54  /   0  10  30  70  20
COTULLA           51  75  62  67  47  /   0  10  30  40  10
KINGSVILLE        54  79  64  76  51  /  10  10  20  70  20
NAVY CORPUS       58  75  67  74  56  /  10  10  30  70  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM
     WELLS...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...REFUGIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

JAR/19...SHORT TERM
RG/82...LONG TERM/AVIATION

000
FXUS64 KFWD 230213 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
813 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.UPDATE...
NORTH TEXAS BETWEEN SYSTEMS RIGHT NOW WITH TRANQUIL WX CONTINUING
THROUGH MONDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES NOW WITH LIGHT WINDS HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL A LITTLE FASTER THAN FORECAST SO WILL MAKE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS AND TWEAK LOWS DOWN A DEGREE OR
SO IN A FEW LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. WILL
SEE SOME FOG AGAIN TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH ATTM IT DOESNT APPEAR THAT
IT WILL BE QUITE AS DENSE GIVEN NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL BE HIGHER
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW OBS REPORTING 4-5SM ATTM BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG.

91/DUNN

&&

.AVIATION...
SIMILAR TO 24 HRS AGO...HAVE LITTLE FAITH IN OVERALL MOS GUIDANCE
AND CONDITIONAL CLIMO TRENDS...AS SOIL MOISTURE STILL LIKELY ON
MOIST SIDE WITH LIGHT S/SE WINDS AND RADIATIONAL COOLING/STRONG
SFC INVERSION EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. MOS GUIDANCE/CONDITIONAL CLIMO
DON`T PICK UP ON SOIL MOISTURE AND ARE DEPENDENT ON ATMOSPHERIC
PARAMETERS. PLUS...EVIDENCE OF BOUNDARY LYR MOISTURE FROM EARLIER
MVFR CIGS REMAINS FROM I-35 AND WEST.

WILL CONTINUE MVFR MENTION FOR D/FW AIRPORTS AROUND DAYBREAK AND
HAVE SOME MVFR/TEMPO IFR VSBYS WACO AREA WITH THE LGT WINDS. IF WE
GO COMPLETELY CALM HOWEVER...THEN FOG MAY BE SHALLOW AND PRETTY
THICK PER MODEL BUFFER SOUNDING PROFILES. SLY FLOW INCREASES TO
10-13 KTS BY MIDDAY MON WITH VFR CONDITIONS. FLOW SLOWLY VEERS 5-7
KTS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT BY 03Z/MON EVENING AFTER FOR THE D/FW
24-30 FCST AND HAVE THROWN IN VCSH FOR A FEW SHOWERS. FRONT WILL
ARRIVE BEFORE DAWN TUES MORNING.

05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/
THE LOW CLOUDS THAT LINGERED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTH
TEXAS THIS MORNING HAVE DISSIPATED EXCEPT FOR A THIN BAND FROM
EAST OF BOWIE...TO HILLSBORO AS OF 21Z. THERE WAS WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG THIS MORNING. EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT... HOWEVER...WINDS SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE
MONDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY MONDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS THEN
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND. WE
WILL SEE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON THANKSGIVING DAY. MORNING LOWS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH
HIGHS JUST AROUND THE NORMALS.

58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  45  72  47  66  39 /   0   5  20   5   5
WACO, TX              46  73  50  67  41 /   0   5  20  10   5
PARIS, TX             45  69  47  63  39 /   0   5  30  20   5
DENTON, TX            42  72  44  66  35 /   0  10  20   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          44  71  44  66  36 /   0   5  20  10   5
DALLAS, TX            46  73  49  66  43 /   0   5  20   5   5
TERRELL, TX           45  72  49  66  41 /   0   5  30  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         46  73  49  66  41 /   0   5  30  20   5
TEMPLE, TX            46  73  51  66  38 /   0   5  20  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KBRO 230148
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
748 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...ADJUSTED LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT BY 1 TO 3
DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND OBSERVED DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES.
ALSO INDICATED THAT FOG WOULD INITIATE BEFORE MIDNIGHT BASED UPON
OBSERVATIONS FROM 24 HOURS AGO AND CURRENT TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT
TRENDS. NEXT COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO AFFECT THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY FALLING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. BEYOND TUESDAY...LONG
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE AT
THE VERY END OF THIS MONTH...THE OFFICIAL END OF THE RELATIVELY
QUIET 2009 HURRICANE SEASON. UPDATED ZONE FORECAST ISSUED A SHORT
TIME AGO.
&&

.MARINE...WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO INCREASE
MONDAY AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE
INTO THE NORTH TEXAS. PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES NOT TIGHTEN ENOUGH IN
ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH TO WARRANT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BUT STRONG
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
SOME GUSTS COULD NEAR GALE FORCE BUT NO GALE WATCH IS ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME HOWEVER SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
NORTH OF THE TEXAS COAST AND EVEN GETS REINFORCED THURSDAY TO AT
LEAST MAINTAIN A MODERATE NORTH WIND. THIS MIGHT PROLONG THE HIGH
SEAS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERATED BY THE INITIAL NORTHERLY
SURGE SO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LATER HALF OF COMING WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. CLEAR SKIES LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO NEAR CALM WINDS AND
WET SOILS SHOULD COMBINE TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR WITH PATCHES
OF IFR AND LIFR. DIFFICULT TO SAY WERE THE DENSEST FOG WILL OCCUR
BUT WOULD EXPECT NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MIDDLE AND LOWER VALLEY INCLUDING THE REGIONAL AIRPORTS.  ONCE THE
FOG LIFTS BY MID MORNING EXPECT A DEVELOPING CU FIELD WHICH IS
FORECAST TO BECOME BKN AROUND NOON OR SHORTLY THERE AFTER. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS TO PREVAIL MONDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  60  80  68  78 /   0  10  30  60
BROWNSVILLE          59  80  67  78 /   0  10  30  60
HARLINGEN            58  81  66  77 /   0  10  30  60
MCALLEN              59  81  67  77 /   0  10  30  60
RIO GRANDE CITY      59  81  63  75 /   0  10  30  60
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   62  79  65  77 /   0  10  30  50
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TOMASELLI-66
MARINE/AVIATION/MESO...BOGORAD-59

000
FXUS64 KMAF 222357
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
557 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...
A DRY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP MONDAY OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
INTO WEST TEXAS RESULTING IN INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS. A
COLD FONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER...OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISION OR CEILINGS ARE
FORECAST AT ANY AREA TERMINALS. SKIES WILL RANGE FROM CLEAR TO
SCATTERED AS OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS STREAM ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARY SOMEWHAT IN
DIRECTION THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THOUGH WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK. AFTER SUNRISE...WINDS VEER TO SOUTHWEST
AND WESTERLY...INCREASING TO GENERALLY 10 TO 12 KNOTS. SOME
GUSTINESS IS EXPECTED AT KHOB...KINK...KMAF AND KPEQ...THOUGH WIND
GUSTS ARE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 20 KNOTS AT ANY AREA
TERMINALS.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION AFTER 00Z MONDAY
EVENING.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05

000
FXUS64 KFWD 222345 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
545 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.AVIATION...
SIMILAR TO 24 HRS AGO...HAVE LITTLE FAITH IN OVERALL MOS GUIDANCE
AND CONDITIONAL CLIMO TRENDS...AS SOIL MOISTURE STILL LIKELY ON
MOIST SIDE WITH LIGHT S/SE WINDS AND RADIATIONAL COOLING/STRONG
SFC INVERSION EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. MOS GUIDANCE/CONDITIONAL CLIMO
DON`T PICK UP ON SOIL MOISTURE AND ARE DEPENDENT ON ATMOSPHERIC
PARAMETERS. PLUS...EVIDENCE OF BOUNDARY LYR MOISTURE FROM EARLIER
MVFR CIGS REMAINS FROM I-35 AND WEST.

WILL CONTINUE MVFR MENTION FOR D/FW AIRPORTS AROUND DAYBREAK AND
HAVE SOME MVFR/TEMPO IFR VSBYS WACO AREA WITH THE LGT WINDS. IF WE
GO COMPLETELY CALM HOWEVER...THEN FOG MAY BE SHALLOW AND PRETTY
THICK PER MODEL BUFFER SOUNDING PROFILES. SLY FLOW INCREASES TO
10-13 KTS BY MIDDAY MON WITH VFR CONDITIONS. FLOW SLOWLY VEERS 5-7
KTS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT BY 03Z/MON EVENING AFTER FOR THE D/FW
24-30 FCST AND HAVE THROWN IN VCSH FOR A FEW SHOWERS. FRONT WILL
ARRIVE BEFORE DAWN TUES MORNING.

05/

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/
THE LOW CLOUDS THAT LINGERED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTH
TEXAS THIS MORNING HAVE DISSIPATED EXCEPT FOR A THIN BAND FROM
EAST OF BOWIE...TO HILLSBORO AS OF 21Z. THERE WAS WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG THIS MORNING. EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT... HOWEVER...WINDS SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE
MONDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY MONDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS THEN
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND. WE
WILL SEE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON THANKSGIVING DAY. MORNING LOWS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH
HIGHS JUST AROUND THE NORMALS.

58

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  48  72  47  66  39 /   0   5  20   5   5
WACO, TX              48  73  50  67  41 /   0   5  20  10   5
PARIS, TX             46  69  47  63  39 /   0   5  30  20   5
DENTON, TX            45  72  44  66  35 /   0  10  20   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          44  71  44  66  36 /   0   5  20  10   5
DALLAS, TX            50  73  49  66  43 /   0   5  20   5   5
TERRELL, TX           48  72  49  66  41 /   0   5  30  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         47  73  49  66  41 /   0   5  30  20   5
TEMPLE, TX            48  73  51  66  38 /   0   5  20  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/58

000
FXUS64 KEWX 222344
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
544 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREA TERMINALS SHOW DEWPOINTS AROUND 50 DEGREES TO SUGGEST ANOTHER
NIGHT OF PATCHY DENSE FOG AND LIGHT WINDS. ABUNDANT GROUND
MOISTURE COULD MAKE FOR SPOTTY DENSE GROUND FOG AREAS AS EARLY AS
MIDNIGHT, BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE VSBYS DROP AFTER 08Z. AFTER
SPOTTY VLIFR CONDITIONS LINGER INTO DAYBREAK, AN INCREASE IN
DAYTIME WINDS AND GULF MOISTURE DEPTH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
IMPROVING VSBYS BY 15Z, AND A NORMAL INVERSION BURN-OFF TIME OF
16-17Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT POTENTIAL THAT THE INCREASED ONSHORE
WIND AND MOISTURE COULD HOLD THE INVERSION IN PLACE TO SUPPORT
MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING BUT SOUNDING PROGS INDICATE RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL AGAIN CONDENSE THE GROUND BASED MOISTURE TO FOG LATE
TONIGHT..PATCHY GENERALLY WEST OF THE NORTH-SOUTH ESCARPMENT AND
MORE WIDESPREAD AND DENSE EAST OF THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED
ESCARPMENT. WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS..
AN AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS WILL FORM ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY TOMORROW MIDDAY AS GULF MOISTURE
IS ADVECTED NORTHWARD. A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. PLAINS WILL PUSH EAST TOMORROW NIGHT AS AN ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. GRADUAL
CLEARING FROM THE NORTH (HILL COUNTRY) TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO EJECT NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS A
DOWNSTREAM KICKER DIGS SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN U.S. PLAINS.
CLEARING AND COLDER TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH.
MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL WEDNESDAY WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
AND DRY WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A REINFORCEMENT OF THE RIDGE
IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVES CARVES ITS WAY
SOUTH INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOWS MAY APPROACH
FREEZING OVER PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY THANKSGIVING MORNING.
THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON WILL BE SUNNY AND MILD WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...ABOUT NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY
THEN AS THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE PUSHES EAST SATURDAY..ENHANCED
WESTERLIES ALOFT WILL INCREASE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND GULF MOISTURE
BRIEFLY BEFORE A WEAK FRONT PUSHES THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              50  76  53  67  46 /   0  -   20  20  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  43  75  52  66  41 /   0  -   20  20  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     47  76  52  65  43 /   0  -   20  20  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            49  73  50  64  40 /   0  -   20  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           49  76  53  66  44 /   0   0  10  30  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        50  74  51  65  42 /   0  -   20  20  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             47  76  55  66  41 /   0  -   20  30  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        48  76  51  65  45 /   0  -   20  20  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   48  75  54  64  43 /  -   -   20  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       51  77  55  67  46 /   0  -   20  20  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           48  76  55  66  45 /   0  -   20  30  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

11/18

000
FXUS64 KCRP 222332 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
532 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 06-09Z FROM
ALI TO VCT WITH LIFR VSBYS. VSBYS WILL ALSO DROP BETWEEN 09-14Z FOR
LRD AND CRP BEFORE CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ON
MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...LAST OF THE LOW
CLOUDS HAVE DIMINISHED AROUND COTULLA...OTHERWISE SKIES
ARE CLEAR. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S IN THE PACIFIC AIR MASS AND
SURFACE HIGH RIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA THE STAGE IS SET
FOR QUICK COOLING TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR AND MODEL PROGS DEPICT
DRY AIR ALOFT AND SOLID INVERSION IN PLACE. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FROM COTULLA TO VICTORIA TO PORT OCONNER. ELSEWHERE
FOG WILL BE PATCHY AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD DEVELOP
STRATUS IN THE RIO GRANDE LATE TONIGHT...THUS A COMBINATION IS
EXPECTED THERE. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS OVER THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE REGION
ON MONDAY SO STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BUT INCREASED
SOUTHERLY SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL FLOW AND 850 MB MOISTURE ALSO
INCREASES. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS ON
MONDAY AND WITH BETTER MIXING MID TO UPPER 70S WIDESPREAD AND
LOWER 80S FOR LAREDO AS LONG AS STRATUS LIFTS TO HIGHER DECK.

FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT BUT
LIMITED MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS
THE FRONT TO COT TO VCT LINE AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. THIS WILL
DECREASE THE LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH FLOW AND TURN SOUTHWESTERLY
ALOFT. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH SOUTH LOW LEVEL
FLOW THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE NEARSHORE
WATERS AND SPREAD INLAND...MAINLY CRP TO PORT OCCONNOR. SOUNDINGS
REFLECT MID LEVEL CAP OVERNIGHT SO LIMITED THUNDER TO AFTER
12Z TUESDAY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND DECREASING WIND WITH
LITTLE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME FOG FOR
NORTHERN AREAS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MAIN ISSUES ARE THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT ON TUESDAY...POPS ASSOCIATED WITH IT...THEN WHETHER NEXT
FRONT WILL COME DOWN NEXT SUNDAY OR NOT. GFS IS FASTEST WITH FRONT
AND NAM LOOKS TO BE TOO SLOW...WILL LEAN A BIT MORE TOWARD THE GFS
SOLUTION AND HAVE THE FRONT NEAR THE SOUTH SIDE OF CORPUS AROUND
NOON. MAIN FORCING WILL BE WITH THE FRONT. GFS HAS KIND OF LEANED
OFF THE STRONG INSTABILITY...GIVEN FASTER MOVEMENT. HOWEVER...
APPEARS ENOUGH OF POOLING OF MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE AND IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TO WARRANT LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. FARTHER
NORTH AND WEST...MAY BE A BIT TRICKIER GIVEN THAT MOISTURE ADVECTION
BECOMES NEGATIVE OVER THE NORTHWEST AND THERE IS LITTLE IF ANY OVER
THE NORTHEAST. STILL...THINK FRONT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE
SOME SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST...SO KEPT HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY POPS
OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SAME POP VALUE OVER THE SOUTHEAST...BUT
FARTHER WEST LOWERED POPS JUST ABOUT 10 PERCENT. DID MENTION THUNDER
BUT MAINLY OVER THE EAST (SLIGHT CHANCE NORTHWEST). ALSO...HAVE A
SMALL/SLIGHT TREND OF LOWER POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD HAVE
RAIN ENDING ALL INLAND AREAS (DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE NEAR COAST FOR
THE EVENING) BUT AFTER THAT SHOULD BE HIGH AND DRY THROUGH SATURDAY.
BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND FRONT MOST AREAS ON TUESDAY GIVEN STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT. DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY FILTER IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE.
EXPECTING COOL NIGHTS AND PLEASANT DAYS THROUGH FRIDAY...AS ANOTHER
SURFACE HIGH COMES IN AROUND THURSDAY TO KEEP THINGS COOL AT NIGHT
AND MILD DURING THE DAY. SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY AND
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL THUS RETURN...SO WARM UP WILL ENSUE BUT
MAINLY IN MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. NEXT QUESTION IS WHETHER ANOTHER
FRONT WILL MOVE IN ON SUNDAY OR STAY TO THE NORTH TIL MONDAY. GFS
MOVES IT DOWN...ECMWF DOES NOT. FOR NOW...WILL HOLD OFF ON THE FRONT
COMING DOWN ON SUNDAY AND GO WITH ECMWF...MEANING WARMER YET ON
SUNDAY (BELIEVE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWER THAN GFS HAS).
OVERALL...WENT ON LOW SIDE OR COOLER THAN GUIDANCE...MAINLY FOR
LOWS...THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...THEN GO ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
AFTER THAT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    52  78  64  72  52  /  10  10  20  70  20
VICTORIA          50  77  58  67  46  /   0  10  30  60  10
LAREDO            56  82  64  70  51  /   0  10  20  50  10
ALICE             49  79  62  72  49  /  10  10  20  60  20
ROCKPORT          58  74  66  73  54  /   0  10  30  70  20
COTULLA           50  75  62  67  47  /   0  10  30  40  10
KINGSVILLE        54  79  64  76  51  /  10  10  20  70  20
NAVY CORPUS       58  75  67  74  56  /  10  10  30  70  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...LA SALLE...LIVE
     OAK...MCMULLEN...REFUGIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RG/82...AVIATION

000
FXUS64 KSJT 222325
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
525 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...

SEE BELOW FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...A TRICKY FORECAST
LIES AHEAD FOR TONIGHT. THE LATEST 18Z NAM FORECASTS A DRIER
BOUNDARY LAYER FOR THE OVERNIGHT AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
NIGHTS...AND THE NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF
MOISTURE NEAR THE SFC. AS A RESULT...I`M NOT AS CONFIDENT THAT
THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND INSTEAD WILL
FORECAST SOME LIGHT MVFR GROUND FOG. I CAN`T RULE OUT A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR VSBYS BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH THIS FAR OUT
TO INCLUDE IT IN THE TAFS.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/

SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS....WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS MUCH
OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME
MOISTURE RETURN.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS  AND THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT.EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT BUT THIS
COMBINED WITH INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MOISTURE THINK
TONIGHTS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARMER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...WHICH
IS STILL A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN GUIDANCE. LOOKING AT BUFKIT AND
LATEST NAMBFR SOUNDINGS HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR
EARLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY ...HEARTLAND AND
SOUTHWARD. THE MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE TOO SHALLOW TO MAKE IT PAST
THE HILLS OF THE BIG COUNTRY.

FOR MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ISN`T EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS UNTIL LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT COMPRESSIONAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WARMING UP TO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

LONG TERM...
BY MONDAY EVENING...A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE
DRIVING SOUTH THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS OF TEXAS. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
SHALLOW ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH...ARGUING AGAINST
RAISING POPS IN OUR AREA AND SUGGESTING THAN ANY PRECIP WE SEE
ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIP WORDING. WITH THE
MOISTURE PILING UP SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20...WE MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...MODELS DO SHOW ENOUGH WIND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AT THIS TIME TO HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION FOR NOW.

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. MANY AREAS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE CLOSE TO FREEZING TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
REBOUND INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S ON WEDNESDAY FROM THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S TUESDAY. AS A TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...SFC RIDGING WILL BE
REINFORCED ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SFC RIDGING...SO
MAIN EFFECTS WILL BE EASTERLY SFC FLOW.

FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY DRY WITH SEASONAL VALUES
FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...LARGE
MODEL DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP LATE IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...WHILE THE GFS JUST HAS NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. AND TEXAS. WILL ONLY INCREASE POP VALUES TO 10 TO 14
PERCENT FOR THE TIME PERIOD AND WAIT FOR MODELS TO COME TO BETTER
AGREEMENT BEFORE ADDING ANY PRECIP TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  43  77  43  62  34 /   0   0  10  10   0
SAN ANGELO  39  79  43  61  32 /   0   0  10  10   0
JUNCTION  40  75  45  67  30 /   0   0  20  20   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KHGX 222320
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
520 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THIS EVENING BUT AM EXPECTING PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING BETWEEN
06-09Z ACROSS THE TAF SITES. FOG SHOULD BE SHALLOW AND BURN OFF
QUICKLY AROUND 14Z. WINDS WILL BECOME E-SE ON MONDAY BUT OVERALL
SKY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/

DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH ACROSS SE TX THIS AFTN RESULTING IN VERY PLEASANT WEATHER
WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPERATURES. THE COMBINATION OF
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND
WET GROUND CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN A VERY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. HAVE PLACED DENSE FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR
ALL OF SE TX IN THE 06-15Z TIME FRAME. WILL LIKELY NEED AN
ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA BUT WILL DEFER TO EVENING SHIFT
TO MAKE THIS DECISION. ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF MONDAY WILL BE
ANOTHER VERY NICE DAY. EXPECT LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND MILD
TEMPERATURES...WITH A FEW CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTN AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEGINS TO SLOWLY RETURN.

UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE DIFFLUENT
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING...BUT BEST JET DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL
NORTH. MOISTURE RETURN IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY MODEST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET NEVER GETS FULLY ESTABLISHED. PWS
WILL INCREASE TO 1.1-1.3 INCHES. CLOUDS WILL FILL IN MONDAY NIGHT
WITH A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL
HAVE 40-60 POPS BLANKETED AREA WIDE TUESDAY. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE
OVER COASTAL ZONES/OFFSHORE WHERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER PWS ARE
FORECAST. THE LATEST NAM/ECMWF RUNS CONTINUE TO BE 3 TO 6 HOURS
SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...NOT HAVING IT
OFF THE COAST UNTIL LATE AFTN. HAVE KEPT PRECIP GOING INTO THE
EARLY EVENING FOR COASTAL ZONES AS A RESULT. EXPECT MOSTLY LIGHT
SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER. SKIES WILL CLEAR RAPIDLY
TUESDAY EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. FOLLOWING THE FROPA...NICE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY PERIOD (WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY). FLOW ALOFT BECOMES NORTHERLY WITH SFC HIGH
BEING REINFORCED BY A COUPLE OF DRY FRONTAL PASSAGES. EXPECT
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S.
MINS IN THE 30S WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN RURAL AREAS OVER THE NE
ZONES...WITH THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKING LIKE THE COOLEST NIGHT. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOT OF DIFFERENCES NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH ECMWF FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG UPPER
LOW WEST OF THE STATE AND GFS SHOWING A CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT.
FOR NOW HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE DRIER 12Z GFS WHICH HAS SUPPORT OF
THE ENSEMBLE MEAN. GIVEN THIS SOLUTION A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PASS THROUGH SUNDAY...AND HAVE 20 POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS.

35

MARINE...
QUIET/MOSTLY CALM CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THE NEXT DAY OR
SO WITH HIGH PRESSURE AS THE MAIN INFLUENCE. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA...ONSHORE WINDS TO RETURN TOMORROW. OUR NEXT COLD FRONT
STILL SLATED FOR TUE...BUT THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES
(GFS JUST A TAD FASTER THAN NAM). BUT WE SHOULD SEE MODERATE/STRONG
NY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BY TUE NIGHT...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
SCA FLAGS. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD WEAKEN BY WED NIGHT BUT STAY FROM THE
N/NE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.  41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      48  74  54  66  44 /   0   0  30  40  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              48  74  57  72  45 /   0   0  20  40  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            55  71  63  74  53 /   0   0  20  50  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...43

000
FXUS64 KLUB 222318 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
518 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH SITES OVERNIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY
TOMORROW UNTIL A COLD FRONT PROGGED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE
IN THE PERIOD WILL SHIFT THEM TO A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/

SHORT TERM...
SFC COLD FRONT HAS MADE ITS WAY THROUGH THE CWFA BUT IS NOT EXPECTED
TO WORK VERY MUCH FURTHER SOUTH OR EAST TODAY.  WINDS WILL DIMINISH
THROUGHOUT THE AFTN AND EVENING AND WILL VEER TO SWRLY AHEAD OF NEXT
FRONT DUE IN MONDAY AFTN.  OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH OTHER
THAN BREEZY AND COOLER POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS.

THE NAM...WHICH HAS BEEN HANDLING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FAIRLY WELL THE
PAST FEW DAYS...IS HINTING AT FOG DEVELOPING JUST TO OUR SOUTH
AROUND DAYBREAK.  WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT ON
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION EARLY MONDAY MORNING.  WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE
FAIRLY WELL AREAWIDE AND AS SUCH...WILL ADJUST LOWS DOWNWARD
ACCORDINGLY WITH THE MCLR SKIES EXPECTED.

INSOFAR AS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS GO...GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA WILL BE QUITE DRY. HOWEVER...WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN WELL UNDER CRITERIA AND THUS ONLY AN ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER DANGER SHOULD EXIST MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST DAYS 2 THROUGH 6. FLOW ALOFT WILL
GRADUALLY EVOLVE TO A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN BY
MIDWEEK. SFC RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA TUE/WED SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
JUST ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL...WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON TEMPS.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS FINALLY BEGINS TO BREAKDOWN/SHIFT EAST LATE IN
THE WEEK AS NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION. INCREASING SW FLOW AT SFC AND ALOFT WILL
LEAD INTO A WARMING TREND FRI/SAT ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME FIRE WX CONCERNS ON THE CAPROCK AS AIRMASS REMAINS DRY.
TOWARD THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
REGARDING THE TRACK ON THE STORM SYSTEM HEADING OUT OF THE PAC NW.
ECMWF AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE CMC BEGIN TO CUT OFF THE TROUGH
INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...WHILE THE GFS EJECTS
IT OUT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. ECMWF HAS BEEN HINTING AT THIS THE
PAST SEVERAL RUNS...AND HAS BETTER CONTINUITY THAN THE GFS. IN
FACT THE LATEST ECMWF TAKES THE CLOSED LOW SWD TO NRN MX BY TUE
MORN...AND IT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN IT IT WOULD HAVE MUCH IMPACT
ON OUR WX IF IT DOES STAY THAT FAR SOUTH AND WEST. STILL PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS LONG RANGE...BUT HAVE USED THE BETTER
PERFORMING ECMWF FOR WIND/TEMP/SKY COVER GRIDS NEXT SUNDAY...AND
RAISED POPS TO JUST BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        23  64  23  55  23 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         27  67  29  57  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     28  68  30  57  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     31  70  29  58  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       34  70  32  58  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   34  70  29  58  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    33  72  29  59  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     38  71  37  61  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          38  73  36  61  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     39  75  37  61  34 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AMP.22

000
FXUS64 KAMA 222314 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
514 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.AVIATION...
A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW EARLY TONIGHT WILL TRANSITION TO ZONAL LATE
TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES SOUTH
AND EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND INTO THE PLAINS STATES
MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PERSISTING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME
NORTH TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AND INCREASE 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 13Z AND 17Z MONDAY. THE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY 00Z TUESDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 138 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/

DISCUSSION...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A TRAIN OF LOWS ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND ONTO THE PLAINS. ONE SUCH LOW IS FOUND JUST EAST OF
DDC. THE NEXT LOW IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE ROCKIES
AND INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW WILL DIVE
SOUTH SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS IOWA ON WEDNESDAY.

EACH ONE OF THESE LOWS WILL HELP TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES. EACH FRONT LOOKS TO BE DRY FOR US.

UPPER FLOW WILL THEN START TO AMPLIFY SOME TOWARD THANKSGIVING AND
THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE ROCKIES AND WILL MOVE OVER THE PLAINS BY FRIDAY CAUSING
A WARMING TREND FOR THE PANHANDLES. THEN THE RIDGE WILL START TO
REDEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC/WEST COAST OF THE U.S. THE
PANHANDLES WILL THEN BE UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CANADIAN AIR TO FILTER SOUTHWARD INTO
PANHANDLES FOR LATE IN THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND. WE ALSO ADDED SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON SUNDAY WHICH IS MOST IN LINE
WITH THE ECMWF MODEL. THIS MODEL HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS.

THANKS FOR THE COORDINATION ABQ...PUB AND LUB.

FIRE WEATHER...
WINDS WILL GET STRONG AT TIMES THIS WEEK. BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONTS...WHICH MEANS THAT THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY SHOULD BE HIGHER. THEREFORE...THE INGREDIENTS NEEDED FOR A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY DO NOT LOOK LIKELY.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/14

000
FXUS64 KFWD 222145
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
345 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...
THE LOW CLOUDS THAT LINGERED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTH
TEXAS THIS MORNING HAVE DISSIPATED EXCEPT FOR A THIN BAND FROM
EAST OF BOWIE...TO HILLSBORO AS OF 21Z. THERE WAS WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG THIS MORNING. EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT... HOWEVER...WINDS SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE
MONDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY MONDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS THEN
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND. WE
WILL SEE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON THANKSGIVING DAY. MORNING LOWS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH
HIGHS JUST AROUND THE NORMALS.


58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  48  72  47  66  39 /   0   5  20   5   5
WACO, TX              48  73  50  67  41 /   0   5  20  10   5
PARIS, TX             46  69  47  63  39 /   0   5  30  20   5
DENTON, TX            45  72  44  66  35 /   0  10  20   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          44  71  44  66  36 /   0   5  20  10   5
DALLAS, TX            50  73  49  66  43 /   0   5  20   5   5
TERRELL, TX           48  72  49  66  41 /   0   5  30  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         47  73  49  66  41 /   0   5  30  20   5
TEMPLE, TX            48  73  51  66  38 /   0   5  20  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/58

000
FXUS64 KLUB 222125
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
325 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SHORT TERM...
SFC COLD FRONT HAS MADE ITS WAY THROUGH THE CWFA BUT IS NOT EXPECTED
TO WORK VERY MUCH FURTHER SOUTH OR EAST TODAY.  WINDS WILL DIMINISH
THROUGHOUT THE AFTN AND EVENING AND WILL VEER TO SWRLY AHEAD OF NEXT
FRONT DUE IN MONDAY AFTN.  OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH OTHER
THAN BREEZY AND COOLER POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS.

THE NAM...WHICH HAS BEEN HANDLING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FAIRLY WELL THE
PAST FEW DAYS...IS HINTING AT FOG DEVELOPING JUST TO OUR SOUTH
AROUND DAYBREAK.  WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT ON
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION EARLY MONDAY MORNING.  WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE
FAIRLY WELL AREAWIDE AND AS SUCH...WILL ADJUST LOWS DOWNWARD
ACCORDINGLY WITH THE MCLR SKIES EXPECTED.

INSOFAR AS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS GO...GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA WILL BE QUITE DRY. HOWEVER...WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN WELL UNDER CRITERIA AND THUS ONLY AN ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER DANGER SHOULD EXIST MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST DAYS 2 THROUGH 6. FLOW ALOFT WILL
GRADUALLY EVOLVE TO A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN BY
MIDWEEK. SFC RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA TUE/WED SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
JUST ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL...WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON TEMPS.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS FINALLY BEGINS TO BREAKDOWN/SHIFT EAST LATE IN
THE WEEK AS NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION. INCREASING SW FLOW AT SFC AND ALOFT WILL
LEAD INTO A WARMING TREND FRI/SAT ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME FIRE WX CONCERNS ON THE CAPROCK AS AIRMASS REMAINS DRY.
TOWARD THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
REGARDING THE TRACK ON THE STORM SYSTEM HEADING OUT OF THE PAC NW.
ECMWF AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE CMC BEGIN TO CUT OFF THE TROUGH
INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...WHILE THE GFS EJECTS
IT OUT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. ECMWF HAS BEEN HINTING AT THIS THE
PAST SEVERAL RUNS...AND HAS BETTER CONTINUITY THAN THE GFS. IN
FACT THE LATEST ECMWF TAKES THE CLOSED LOW SWD TO NRN MX BY TUE
MORN...AND IT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN IT IT WOULD HAVE MUCH IMPACT
ON OUR WX IF IT DOES STAY THAT FAR SOUTH AND WEST. STILL PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS LONG RANGE...BUT HAVE USED THE BETTER
PERFORMING ECMWF FOR WIND/TEMP/SKY COVER GRIDS NEXT SUNDAY...AND
RAISED POPS TO JUST BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        23  64  23  55  23 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         27  67  29  57  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     28  68  30  57  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     31  70  29  58  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       35  70  32  58  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   34  70  29  58  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    33  72  29  59  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     38  71  37  61  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          38  73  36  61  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     39  75  37  61  34 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/33

000
FXUS64 KCRP 222111
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
311 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...LAST OF THE LOW
CLOUDS HAVE DIMINISHED AROUND COTULLA...OTHERWISE SKIES
ARE CLEAR. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S IN THE PACIFIC AIR MASS AND
SURFACE HIGH RIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA THE STAGE IS SET
FOR QUICK COOLING TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR AND MODEL PROGS DEPICT
DRY AIR ALOFT AND SOLID INVERSION IN PLACE. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FROM COTULLA TO VICTORIA TO PORT OCONNER. ELSEWHERE
FOG WILL BE PATCHY AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD DEVELOP
STRATUS IN THE RIO GRANDE LATE TONIGHT...THUS A COMBINATION IS
EXPECTED THERE. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS OVER THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE REGION
ON MONDAY SO STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BUT INCREASED
SOUTHERLY SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL FLOW AND 850 MB MOISTURE ALSO
INCREASES. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS ON
MONDAY AND WITH BETTER MIXING MID TO UPPER 70S WIDESPREAD AND
LOWER 80S FOR LAREDO AS LONG AS STRATUS LIFTS TO HIGHER DECK.

FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT BUT
LIMITED MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS
THE FRONT TO COT TO VCT LINE AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. THIS WILL
DECREASE THE LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH FLOW AND TURN SOUTHWESTERLY
ALOFT. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH SOUTH LOW LEVEL
FLOW THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE NEARSHORE
WATERS AND SPREAD INLAND...MAINLY CRP TO PORT OCCONNOR. SOUNDINGS
REFLECT MID LEVEL CAP OVERNIGHT SO LIMITED THUNDER TO AFTER
12Z TUESDAY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND DECREASING WIND WITH
LITTLE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME FOG FOR
NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MAIN ISSUES ARE THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT ON TUESDAY...POPS ASSOCIATED WITH IT...THEN WHETHER NEXT
FRONT WILL COME DOWN NEXT SUNDAY OR NOT. GFS IS FASTEST WITH FRONT
AND NAM LOOKS TO BE TOO SLOW...WILL LEAN A BIT MORE TOWARD THE GFS
SOLUTION AND HAVE THE FRONT NEAR THE SOUTH SIDE OF CORPUS AROUND
NOON. MAIN FORCING WILL BE WITH THE FRONT. GFS HAS KIND OF LEANED
OFF THE STRONG INSTABILITY...GIVEN FASTER MOVEMENT. HOWEVER...
APPEARS ENOUGH OF POOLING OF MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE AND IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TO WARRANT LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. FARTHER
NORTH AND WEST...MAY BE A BIT TRICKIER GIVEN THAT MOISTURE ADVECTION
BECOMES NEGATIVE OVER THE NORTHWEST AND THERE IS LITTLE IF ANY OVER
THE NORTHEAST. STILL...THINK FRONT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE
SOME SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST...SO KEPT HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY POPS
OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SAME POP VALUE OVER THE SOUTHEAST...BUT
FARTHER WEST LOWERED POPS JUST ABOUT 10 PERCENT. DID MENTION THUNDER
BUT MAINLY OVER THE EAST (SLIGHT CHANCE NORTHWEST). ALSO...HAVE A
SMALL/SLIGHT TREND OF LOWER POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD HAVE
RAIN ENDING ALL INLAND AREAS (DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE NEAR COAST FOR
THE EVENING) BUT AFTER THAT SHOULD BE HIGH AND DRY THROUGH SATURDAY.
BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND FRONT MOST AREAS ON TUESDAY GIVEN STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT. DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY FILTER IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE.
EXPECTING COOL NIGHTS AND PLEASANT DAYS THROUGH FRIDAY...AS ANOTHER
SURFACE HIGH COMES IN AROUND THURSDAY TO KEEP THINGS COOL AT NIGHT
AND MILD DURING THE DAY. SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY AND
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL THUS RETURN...SO WARM UP WILL ENSUE BUT
MAINLY IN MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. NEXT QUESTION IS WHETHER ANOTHER
FRONT WILL MOVE IN ON SUNDAY OR STAY TO THE NORTH TIL MONDAY. GFS
MOVES IT DOWN...ECMWF DOES NOT. FOR NOW...WILL HOLD OFF ON THE FRONT
COMING DOWN ON SUNDAY AND GO WITH ECMWF...MEANING WARMER YET ON
SUNDAY (BELIEVE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWER THAN GFS HAS).
OVERALL...WENT ON LOW SIDE OR COOLER THAN GUIDANCE...MAINLY FOR
LOWS...THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...THEN GO ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
AFTER THAT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    52  78  64  72  52  /  10  10  20  70  20
VICTORIA          50  77  58  67  46  /   0  10  30  60  10
LAREDO            56  82  64  70  51  /   0  10  20  50  10
ALICE             49  79  62  72  49  /  10  10  20  60  20
ROCKPORT          58  74  66  73  54  /   0  10  30  70  20
COTULLA           50  75  62  67  47  /   0  10  30  40  10
KINGSVILLE        54  79  64  76  51  /  10  10  20  70  20
NAVY CORPUS       58  75  67  74  56  /  10  10  30  70  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...LA SALLE...LIVE
     OAK...MCMULLEN...REFUGIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

AT/15...SHORT TERM
GW/86...LONG TERM

000
FXUS64 KHGX 222104 CCA
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
304 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH ACROSS SE TX THIS AFTN RESULTING IN VERY PLEASANT WEATHER
WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPERATURES. THE COMBINATION OF
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND
WET GROUND CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN A VERY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. HAVE PLACED DENSE FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR
ALL OF SE TX IN THE 06-15Z TIME FRAME. WILL LIKELY NEED AN
ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA BUT WILL DEFER TO EVENING SHIFT
TO MAKE THIS DECISION. ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF MONDAY WILL BE
ANOTHER VERY NICE DAY. EXPECT LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND MILD
TEMPERATURES...WITH A FEW CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTN AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEGINS TO SLOWLY RETURN.

UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE DIFFLUENT
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING...BUT BEST JET DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL
NORTH. MOISTURE RETURN IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY MODEST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET NEVER GETS FULLY ESTABLISHED. PWS
WILL INCREASE TO 1.1-1.3 INCHES. CLOUDS WILL FILL IN MONDAY NIGHT
WITH A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL
HAVE 40-60 POPS BLANKETED AREA WIDE TUESDAY. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE
OVER COASTAL ZONES/OFFSHORE WHERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER PWS ARE
FORECAST. THE LATEST NAM/ECMWF RUNS CONTINUE TO BE 3 TO 6 HOURS
SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...NOT HAVING IT
OFF THE COAST UNTIL LATE AFTN. HAVE KEPT PRECIP GOING INTO THE
EARLY EVENING FOR COASTAL ZONES AS A RESULT. EXPECT MOSTLY LIGHT
SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER. SKIES WILL CLEAR RAPIDLY
TUESDAY EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. FOLLOWING THE FROPA...NICE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY PERIOD (WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY). FLOW ALOFT BECOMES NORTHERLY WITH SFC HIGH
BEING REINFORCED BY A COUPLE OF DRY FRONTAL PASSAGES. EXPECT
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S.
MINS IN THE 30S WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN RURAL AREAS OVER THE NE
ZONES...WITH THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKING LIKE THE COOLEST NIGHT. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOT OF DIFFERENCES NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH ECMWF FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG UPPER
LOW WEST OF THE STATE AND GFS SHOWING A CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT.
FOR NOW HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE DRIER 12Z GFS WHICH HAS SUPPORT OF
THE ENSEMBLE MEAN. GIVEN THIS SOLUTION A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PASS THROUGH SUNDAY...AND HAVE 20 POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS.

35

&&

.AVIATION...
WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG TONIGHT BUT STILL A LITTLE UN-
CERTAIN ON HOW LOW THE CIGS/VISBYS WILL BE HOWEVER. WET GROUNDS AND
CLEAR SKIES/CALM WINDS ARE GOOD SIGNS FOR A REPEAT OF PERHAPS BRIEF
LIFR CONDITIONS EARLY MON MORNING.  41

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET/MOSTLY CALM CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THE NEXT DAY OR
SO WITH HIGH PRESSURE AS THE MAIN INFLUENCE. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA...ONSHORE WINDS TO RETURN TOMORROW. OUR NEXT COLD FRONT
STILL SLATED FOR TUE...BUT THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES
(GFS JUST A TAD FASTER THAN NAM). BUT WE SHOULD SEE MODERATE/STRONG
NY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BY TUE NIGHT...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
SCA FLAGS. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD WEAKEN BY WED NIGHT BUT STAY FROM THE
N/NE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.  41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      48  74  54  66  44 /   0   0  30  40  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              48  74  57  72  45 /   0   0  20  40  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            55  71  63  74  53 /   0   0  20  50  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION/MARINE...41

000
FXUS64 KHGX 222103
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
303 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH ACROSS SE TX THIS AFTN RESULTING IN VERY PLEASANT WEATHER
WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPERATURES. THE COMBINATION OF
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND
WET GROUND CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN A VERY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. HAVE PLACED DENSE FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR
ALL OF SE TX IN THE 06-15Z TIME FRAME. WILL LIKELY NEED AN
ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA BUT WILL DEFER TO EVENING SHIFT
TO MAKE THIS DECISION. ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF MONDAY WILL BE
ANOTHER VERY NICE DAY. EXPECT LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND MILD
TEMPERATURES...WITH CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTN AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEGINS TO SLOWLY RETURN.

UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE DIFFLUENT
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING...BUT BEST JET DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL
NORTH. MOISTURE RETURN IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY MODEST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET NEVER GETS FULLY ESTABLISHED. PWS
WILL INCREASE TO 1.1-1.3 INCHES. CLOUDS WILL FILL IN MONDAY NIGHT
WITH A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL
HAVE 40-60 POPS BLANKETED AREA WIDE TUESDAY. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE
OVER COASTAL ZONES/OFFSHORE WHERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER PWS ARE
FORECAST. THE LATEST NAM/ECMWF RUNS CONTINUE TO BE 3 TO 6 HOURS
SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...NOT HAVING IT
OFF THE COAST UNTIL LATE AFTN. HAVE KEPT PRECIP GOING INTO THE
EARLY EVENING FOR COASTAL ZONES AS A RESULT. EXPECT MOSTLY LIGHT
SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER. SKIES WILL CLEAR RAPIDLY
TUESDAY EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. FOLLOWING THE FROPA...NICE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY PERIOD (WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY). FLOW ALOFT BECOMES NORTHERLY WITH SFC HIGH
BEING REINFORCED BY A COUPLE OF DRY FRONTAL PASSAGES. EXPECT
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S.
MINS IN THE 30S WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN RURAL AREAS OVER THE NE
ZONES...WITH THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKING LIKE THE COOLEST NIGHT. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOT OF DIFFERENCES NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH ECMWF FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG UPPER
LOW WEST OF THE STATE AND GFS SHOWING A CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT.
FOR NOW HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE DRIER 12Z GFS WHICH HAS SUPPORT OF
THE ENSEMBLE MEAN. GIVEN THIS SOLUTION A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PASS THROUGH SUNDAY...AND HAVE 20 POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS.

35

&&

.AVIATION...
WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG TONIGHT BUT STILL A LITTLE UN-
CERTAIN ON HOW LOW THE CIGS/VISBYS WILL BE HOWEVER. WET GROUNDS AND
CLEAR SKIES/CALM WINDS ARE GOOD SIGNS FOR A REPEAT OF PERHAPS BRIEF
LIFR CONDITIONS EARLY MON MORNING.  41

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET/MOSTLY CALM CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THE NEXT DAY OR
SO WITH HIGH PRESSURE AS THE MAIN INFLUENCE. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA...ONSHORE WINDS TO RETURN TOMORROW. OUR NEXT COLD FRONT
STILL SLATED FOR TUE...BUT THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES
(GFS JUST A TAD FASTER THAN NAM). BUT WE SHOULD SEE MODERATE/STRONG
NY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BY TUE NIGHT...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
SCA FLAGS. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD WEAKEN BY WED NIGHT BUT STAY FROM THE
N/NE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.  41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      48  74  54  66  44 /   0   0  30  40  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              48  74  57  72  45 /   0   0  20  40  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            55  71  63  74  53 /   0   0  20  50  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION/MARINE...41

000
FXUS64 KSJT 222056
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
256 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS....WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS MUCH
OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME
MOISTURE RETURN.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS  AND THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT.EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT BUT THIS
COMBINED WITH INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MOISTURE THINK
TONIGHTS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARMER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...WHICH
IS STILL A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN GUIDANCE. LOOKING AT BUFKIT AND
LATEST NAMBFR SOUNDINGS HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR
EARLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY ...HEARTLAND AND
SOUTHWARD. THE MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE TOO SHALLOW TO MAKE IT PAST
THE HILLS OF THE BIG COUNTRY.

FOR MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ISN`T EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS UNTIL LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT COMPRESSIONAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WARMING UP TO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

.LONG TERM...
BY MONDAY EVENING...A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE
DRIVING SOUTH THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS OF TEXAS. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
SHALLOW ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH...ARGUING AGAINST
RAISING POPS IN OUR AREA AND SUGGESTING THAN ANY PRECIP WE SEE
ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIP WORDING. WITH THE
MOISTURE PILING UP SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20...WE MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...MODELS DO SHOW ENOUGH WIND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AT THIS TIME TO HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION FOR NOW.

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. MANY AREAS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE CLOSE TO FREEZING TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
REBOUND INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S ON WEDNESDAY FROM THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S TUESDAY. AS A TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...SFC RIDGING WILL BE
REINFORCED ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SFC RIDGING...SO
MAIN EFFECTS WILL BE EASTERLY SFC FLOW.

FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY DRY WITH SEASONAL VALUES
FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...LARGE
MODEL DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP LATE IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...WHILE THE GFS JUST HAS NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. AND TEXAS. WILL ONLY INCREASE POP VALUES TO 10 TO 14
PERCENT FOR THE TIME PERIOD AND WAIT FOR MODELS TO COME TO BETTER
AGREEMENT BEFORE ADDING ANY PRECIP TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  43  75  43  62  34 /   0   0  10  10   0
SAN ANGELO  39  76  43  61  32 /   0   0  10  10   0
JUNCTION  40  72  45  67  30 /   0   0  20  20   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

28/20

000
FXUS64 KEWX 222042
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
242 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING BUT SOUNDING PROGS INDICATE RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL AGAIN CONDENSE THE GROUND BASED MOISTURE TO FOG LATE
TONIGHT..PATCHY GENERALLY WEST OF THE NORTH-SOUTH ESCARPMENT AND
MORE WIDESPREAD AND DENSE EAST OF THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED
ESCARPMENT. WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS..
AN AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS WILL FORM ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY TOMORROW MIDDAY AS GULF MOISTURE
IS ADVECTED NORTHWARD. A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. PLAINS WILL PUSH EAST TOMORROW NIGHT AS AN ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. GRADUAL
CLEARING FROM THE NORTH (HILL COUNTRY) TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO EJECT NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS A
DOWNSTREAM KICKER DIGS SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN U.S. PLAINS.
CLEARING AND COLDER TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH.
MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL WEDNESDAY WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
AND DRY WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A REINFORCEMENT OF THE RIDGE
IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVES CARVES ITS WAY
SOUTH INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOWS MAY APPROACH
FREEZING OVER PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY THANKSGIVING MORNING.
THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON WILL BE SUNNY AND MILD WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...ABOUT NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY
THEN AS THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE PUSHES EAST SATURDAY..ENHANCED
WESTERLIES ALOFT WILL INCREASE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND GULF MOISTURE
BRIEFLY BEFORE A WEAK FRONT PUSHES THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              70  50  76  53  67 /   0   0  -   20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  43  75  52  66 /   0   0  -   20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     71  47  76  52  65 /   0   0  -   20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  49  73  50  64 /   0   0  -   20  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           71  49  76  53  66 /   0   0   0  10  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        69  50  74  51  65 /   0   0  -   20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             72  47  76  55  66 /   0   0  -   20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        69  48  76  51  65 /   0   0  -   20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   70  48  75  54  64 /   0  -   -   20  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       71  51  77  55  67 /   0   0  -   20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           71  48  76  55  66 /   0   0  -   20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

02/26

000
FXUS64 KEPZ 222035
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
135 PM MST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING WARM DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND WESTERN TEXAS ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN COOLER BUT CONTINUED
DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL SUSTAIN
TRANSPORT OF WARM DRY AIR ONE MORE DAY TOMORROW. HOWEVER
AMPLIFYING UPPER WAVE WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND
THE SYSTEM ADVECTING COLDER CANADIAN AIR SOUTHWARD. AS A RESULT A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT WITH
EAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT PUSHING IN COOLER AIR. DAYTIME HIGHS
ON TUESDAY SHOULD THUS BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER.

PATTERN BECOMES A BIT MORE COMPLEX AS HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALOFT
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND ROCKY MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WHILE UPPER LOW IN WEAKER SOUTHERLY BRANCH DRIFTS ACROSS
BAJA AND NORTHERN MEXICO. MODELS IN AGREEMENT DEEPER MOISTURE
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE BORDER
WHILE THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE SPREADS ACROSS NEW
MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS. SO EXPECT SEASONABLY WARM DRY WEATHER TO
PERSIST WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING WITH POSSIBLE INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS.

WILL GO WITH LATEST GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS FOR LATER PERIODS AS
BOTH SOLUTIONS SHOW INCREASING ZONAL FLOW AND ASSOCIATED DRY
WEATHER CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND ALONG WITH POSSIBLE WEAK
PACIFIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER THE ECMWF DOES INSIST ONCE
AGAIN THAT A DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN OR
SNOW ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY AND MONDAY INDICATING THE USUAL
UNCERTAINTIES EXIST BEYOND 120 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 23/00Z-24/00Z...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...EVENTUALLY BECOMING A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE...A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...MOVING INTO THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY BEFORE DAWN TUESDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES OF COOLING OFF MAX TEMPS...COOLEST NEAR AND EAST OF THE RIO
GRANDE...AND ENHANCED EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWLANDS.  STRONGER
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS THE AZ/NM BORDER WEDNESDAY... THUS
EXPECT ENHANCED EASTERLY FLOW TO BE STRONGEST OUT THAT WAY WED
AFTERNOON.  EVEN SO...WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL VALUES.  DRY
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE...WITH NO PRECIP LIKELY THROUGH THE COMING
WEEK. A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN MAY TAKE SHAPE BY THE WEEKEND SHOULD
TRENDS HOLD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 41  70  39  62  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA TX        38  67  33  60  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              38  69  38  61  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              33  68  36  59  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              26  54  22  46  18 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   32  67  31  59  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             34  62  30  58  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  34  69  36  61  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               34  70  34  62  30 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH/25 HARDIMAN

000
FXUS64 KSJT 222027
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
227 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.UPDATE...

QUICK UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RAISED TODAYS HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES AS CURRENT OBS SHOW
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS ALREADY IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP A FEW MORE DEGREES.
ALSO DRIER AIR HAS MIXED DOWN SO ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT
THIS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/

DISCUSSION...

READ 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

AVIATION...

MORNING PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS HAS DISSIPATED...SO VFR CONDITIONS
HAVE RETURNED TO ALL TERMINALS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHEN PATCHY BR AND STRATUS
RETURNS TO MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LOW CIGS WILL BE MONDAY MORNING...THE NAM AND
GFS ONLY SHOW LOW CLOUDS AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KJCT AND
KSOA BUT LASTEST BUFKIT INDICATES PATCHY BR AT ALL TERMINALS SO
FOR NOW ONLY HAVE IFR CIGS AT KJCT AND KSOA AND MVFR CIGS
ELSEWHERE...THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL WINDS AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH WINDS DECREASING AFTER SUNSET.

 &&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/

UPDATE...
UPDATED ZONES TO REMOVE MORNING FOG

DISCUSSION...
THE MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS...EXCEPT ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF TH
HEARTLAND. TWEAKED THE CURRENT DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT THE INCREASED
MOISTURE BUT OTHER THAN THAN CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL DISSIPATE BY MID AND LATE MORNING. IFR CEILINGS ARE
LIKELY WITH OCCASIONAL LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KT TODAY. LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/

SHORT TERM...
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG OCCURRING EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR COUNTIES...WHERE THE HIGHER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RESIDES. EXPECT THESE TO DISSIPATE
AROUND MID MORNING WITH A MAINLY SUNNY SKY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
PER THE 850 MB THERMAL PATTERN...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THE 00Z GFS AND NAM20 ARE NOT AS AGRESSIVE WITH THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE INCREASE/LOW CLOUD RETURN EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS
YESTERDAY/S GFS. STILL EXPECT LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT/ADVECTION INTO
AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN THIRD WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. BASED ON TRENDS IN
RECENT DAYS...GOING WITH OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW OR
NEAR THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE.

LONG TERM...
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AREAWIDE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ADVANCING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE MON NIGHT/EARLY
TUE. THE GFS/NAM VERY SIMILAR WITH THE FRONT WHICH CLEARS THE
SOUTHERN CWFA AROUND 12Z TUE. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE HEARTLAND AND NW HILL COUNTRY
LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING AS BOTH THE GFS AND NAM INDICATE
SOME LIGHT QPF DEVELOPING BUT ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT
AS MOISTURE WILL BE VERY SHALLOW. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER
BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 60S. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TUE NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO NEAR
FREEZING MOST AREAS. THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG
SHORT WAVE DIVING SE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WED WHICH CARVES
OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THU AND FRI WITH STRONG
RIDGING OVER THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  43  75  43  62  34 /   0   0  10  10   0
SAN ANGELO  39  76  43  61  32 /   0   0  10  10   0
JUNCTION  40  72  45  67  30 /   0   0  20  20   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

28/99

000
FXUS64 KMAF 222012
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
212 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL HAVE
LITTLE NOTABLE EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS. EXPECT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
AROUND TEN DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS /70S ACROSS THE PLAINS/.
SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOWER TRANS PECOS SOUTHEAST OF FORT STOCKTON NEAR
DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING.

UPSTREAM...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TODAY WILL PROGRESSIVELY MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
MONDAY...PUSHING A STRONG ABIT DRY COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
PERMIAN BASIN MONDAY EVENING AND INTO THE BIG BEND TUESDAY MORNING.
MODELS ARE SIMILAR ON THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM AS THE GFS HAS
TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE PAST
FEW RUNS AND IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST NAM/ECMWF/UKMET.
MAIN IMPACT TO OUR AREA WILL BE COLDER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AIRMASS SETTLES IN AND
PERMITS GOOD OVERNIGHT RADITIONAL COOLING.

FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...MODELS INDICATE A STRONG SHORTWAVE
WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
WHICH WILL AMPLIFY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES
AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST. THIS AMPLIFIED RIDGE-TROUGH
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS WEST TEXAS
AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO WITH NEAR SEASONAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURES.

TOWARD THE END OF THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEKEND...MODEL ENSEMBLES
ARE TRENDING TOWARD DIGGING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BUT CURRENTLY DIVERGE ON THE AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF THIS
NEXT SYSTEM. WILL MAINTAIN A QUIET YET SOMEWHAT COOL EARLY WEEK TWO
FORECAST FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              41  74  35  58  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                31  73  31  56  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  43  72  44  60  /   0   0  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           45  79  39  57  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          39  70  33  54  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   34  72  31  56  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   28  72  25  53  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    37  74  33  57  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  40  73  34  57  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    30  79  33  59  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/01

000
FXUS64 KBRO 221951
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
151 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM IS
THE EXPECTED COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THRU DEEP SOUTH TX ON
TUESDAY. PRIOR TO THAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EWD
LATER TNGT THRU MON. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL
BRING WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN LIGHT TO
MODERATE TNGT THRU MON. EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF SOME WIDESPREAD
FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...MUCH LIKE WHAT TOOK PLACE EARLY
THIS MRNG. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE UNDER THE SE SFC
FLOW AS MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE GULF. CLD COVER WILL INCREASE
WITH TIME THRU MON WITH A SLIGHT CHC FOR PCPN DEVELOPING NEAR
COASTAL LOCALES BY THE END OF THE DAY MON. THAT CHC WILL INCREASE
FURTHER THRU MON NGT AND INTO TUE AS THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN
IT/S TRACK THRU DEEP SOUTH TX. MDLS PROG THE FRONT TO PASS THRU
FROM AROUND MIDDAY IN THE NORTH CWA TO LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO GRADUALLY
BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON WED INTO THU. CLDS SHUD GRADUALLY
DECREASE WITH TIME AS THE FRONT MOVES FARTHER SOUTH AND THE HIGH
BECOMES MORE OF AN INFLUENCE. ATTM...DRY CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL THRU THANKSGIVING DAY AND INTO THE END OF
THE WEEK. MDLS LINGER MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK ACROSS MEXICO...BUT HAVE INDICATED THIS WITH EXTRA CLD COVER
THU INTO FRI AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURE WILL REMAIN SEASONAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH A FEW COOL MRNGS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT BEGINNING WED MRNG.

&&

.AVIATION...THE MORNING CLD COVER AND FOG IS CURRENTLY CONCENTRATED
OVER THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY MAINLY WEST
OF HIGHWAY 281. THE DAYTIME HEATING WILL STEADILY MIX OUT THE
SURFACE LAYER DIMINISHING THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS DECKS. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG WILL BE A POTENTIAL PROBLEM
ONCE AGAIN AFTER 06Z TONIGHT POSSIBLY REDUCING VSBYS AND CEILINGS
DOWN TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW ESPECIALLY FOR THE
HRL AND MFE AREAS. WILL REFLECT THIS EXPECTED TREND IN THE 18Z TAF
ISSUANCE.

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW CURRENTLY PREVAILS
OVER THE LOWER TX BAY AND GULF WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH BUOY020
REPORTING SWELLS NEAR 3 FEET. THE MARINE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
SHIFTING AROUND TO A MORE ONSHORE FLOW LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT
WILL REMAIN LOW. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE SWELLS TO AROUND 3 FT IN THE
SHORT TERM. FAIRLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOWER TX COASTAL AREAS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUES WITH A
LIGHT ONSHORE SURFACE FLOW PERSISTING DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE NEXT ITEM OF
CONCERN WILL BE THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE TUES.
THIS NEXT FROPA OCCURRING LATER ON TUES WILL YIELD A MUCH TIGHTENED
PGF OVER THE REGION TUES NIGHT INTO WED LIKELY REQUIRING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FROM TUES AFTERNOON INTO WED FOR BOTH THE BAY AND GULF
WATERS. THE PGF WILL SLACKEN STEADILY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THIS
UPCOMING WEEK WITH A CALMER N-NE WIND FLOW EXPECTED FROM THURS INTO
FRI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  63  80  68  78 /   0  10  30  60
BROWNSVILLE          60  80  67  78 /   0  10  30  60
HARLINGEN            60  81  66  77 /   0  10  30  60
MCALLEN              61  81  67  77 /   0  10  20  60
RIO GRANDE CITY      60  81  63  75 /   0  10  20  60
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   63  79  65  77 /   0  10  30  50

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...VIPOND-57
MARINE/AVIATION...SPEECE-60
MESO/GRAPHICAST...MARTINEZ

000
FXUS64 KAMA 221938
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
138 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A TRAIN OF LOWS ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND ONTO THE PLAINS. ONE SUCH LOW IS FOUND JUST EAST OF
DDC. THE NEXT LOW IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE ROCKIES
AND INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW WILL DIVE
SOUTH SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS IOWA ON WEDNESDAY.

EACH ONE OF THESE LOWS WILL HELP TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES. EACH FRONT LOOKS TO BE DRY FOR US.

UPPER FLOW WILL THEN START TO AMPLIFY SOME TOWARD THANKSGIVING AND
THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE ROCKIES AND WILL MOVE OVER THE PLAINS BY FRIDAY CAUSING
A WARMING TREND FOR THE PANHANDLES. THEN THE RIDGE WILL START TO
REDEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC/WEST COAST OF THE U.S. THE
PANHANDLES WILL THEN BE UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CANADIAN AIR TO FILTER SOUTHWARD INTO
PANHANDLES FOR LATE IN THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND. WE ALSO ADDED SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON SUNDAY WHICH IS MOST IN LINE
WITH THE ECMWF MODEL. THIS MODEL HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS.

THANKS FOR THE COORDINATION ABQ...PUB AND LUB.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WINDS WILL GET STRONG AT TIMES THIS WEEK. BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONTS...WHICH MEANS THAT THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY SHOULD BE HIGHER. THEREFORE...THE INGREDIENTS NEEDED FOR A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY DO NOT LOOK LIKELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                29  57  28  54  24 /   0   5   5   5   0
BEAVER OK                  27  54  28  53  21 /   0   5   5   5   0
BOISE CITY OK              26  53  23  53  23 /   0   5   5   5   0
BORGER TX                  34  58  31  59  27 /   0   5   5   5   0
BOYS RANCH TX              27  58  26  56  19 /   0   5   5   5   0
CANYON TX                  24  62  25  54  20 /   0   5   5   5   0
CLARENDON TX               36  66  36  58  28 /   0   5   5   5   0
DALHART TX                 23  53  21  53  18 /   0   5   5   5   0
GUYMON OK                  28  61  29  55  21 /   0   5   5   5   0
HEREFORD TX                22  63  22  54  20 /   0   5   5   5   0
LIPSCOMB TX                28  59  31  56  22 /   0   5   5   5   0
PAMPA TX                   36  56  32  56  29 /   0   5   5   5   0
SHAMROCK TX                36  65  37  58  29 /   0   5   5   5   0
WELLINGTON TX              38  68  38  60  28 /   0   0   5   5   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

16/15

000
FXUS64 KEWX 221758
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1158 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.AVIATION...
VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY AND SFC OBS SHOW FOG AND IFR CIGS TO BE
IMPROVING RAPIDLY...SHOULD BE MVFR AT ALL LOCATIONS BY 19 UTC AND
VFR BY 20 UTC. VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER PATCHY FOG AND LIFR/VLIFR CIG WILL REDEVELOP
AGAIN AFTER 08 UTC... WITH THE GREATEST IMPACTS AT KAUS AND KSSF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1048 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/

DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRYING TO MIX OUT UNDER A LOW LEVEL INVERSION
LATE THIS MORNING. AMENDED SKY GRIDS TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE AFTERNOON. DRY AIR
ALOFT AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON..CLEARING THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/

DISCUSSION...
MOIST GROUNDS AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ENABLED RADIATIONAL FOG TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING SO HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
UNTIL 10 AM. VISIBILITIES WILL SUDDENLY BE REDUCED TO ONE QUARTER
OF A MILE OR LESS...SO BE SURE TO ALLOW EXTRA DRIVING TIME TO
REACH YOUR DESTINATION SAFELY. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE BY MID-MORNING ENABLING GOOD MIXING TO LIFT/DISSIPATE THE
FOG BY ABOUT 10 AM. SUNNY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING NEAR 70.

ANOTHER BATCH OF FOG IS EXPECTED EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WARM GULF
RETURN FLOW WILL ENABLE TEMPERATURES TO REACH A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
THAN TODAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE
DAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHING ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS WILL ENABLE A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP
INTO THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND PEAK
ON TUESDAY BEFORE DROPPING OUT OF THE PICTURE TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 DUE TO
DEEPER MOISTURE.

ONCE THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION...DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL
RESUME FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD BE
SUNNY AND MILD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 70. DRY AND SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH A GRADUAL MOISTENING TREND EXPECTED ONCE RETURN FLOW RESUMES
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              70  51  75  57  64 /   0   0  -   20  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  43  74  56  63 /   0   0  -   30  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     71  47  74  56  64 /   0   0  -   30  50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  48  70  52  63 /   0   0  -   20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           71  50  75  56  65 /   0   0  -   20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        69  48  73  54  63 /   0   0  -   20  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             72  45  74  60  63 /   0   0  -   30  50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        69  46  75  56  63 /   0   0  -   30  50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   70  50  75  58  66 /   0   0  -   30  50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       71  51  74  59  66 /   0   0  -   30  50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           71  50  74  60  65 /   0   0  -   30  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/02

000
FXUS64 KCRP 221739
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1139 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION

&&

.AVIATION...FOG HAS LIFTED INTO A SOLID STRATUS DECK IN THE
USUALLY AREAS FROM JUST NEAR GEORGE WEST TO COTULLA AND INTO THE
RIO GRANDE. STRATUS WILL QUICKLY ERODE AT LRD NEXT 30 MINUTES.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS SPREADING NORTH IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
OTHERWISE CLEAR FOR OTHER TAF SITES. THIS MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD TONIGHT WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS LRD.
FORECASTS FAVORS A MIX OF STRATUS AND FOG FOR LRD AND FOG FOR
VCT AND ALI...WHICH SHOULD SET IN EARLY NEAR 05Z AND STAY MOSTLY
IN LIFR. PREVAILING VFR FOR CRP TERMINAL BUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR PATCHY FOG OR LOW CEILINGS TO BRING PERIODS OF IFR 10-14Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 921 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/

DISCUSSION...PATCHY FOG ALONG THE COASTAL BEND DISSIPATED
QUICKLY WITH SUNRISE. INLAND FOG WAS THICKER PER SATELLITE
FOG DEPTH AND CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTS LOW STRATUS
FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO GEORGE WEST. MOST AREAS HAVE
VISIBILITY MUCH IMPROVED EXPECT PATCHY SPOTS LIKE BEEVILLE.

STRONG INVERSION OVER THE AREA WITH H850 TEMPS 12-14C TODAY.
POOR MIXING WITH LIGHT WIND WILL LIMIT MAX TEMPS TO UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S FOR THE COASTAL BEND AND MID TO UPPER 70S FOR
THE RIO GRANDE WHERE A DEEPER MIXED LAYER IS FORECAST. LOTS
OF SUN TODAY WITH ONLY SCATTERED STRATOCU.

LOW LEVEL JET PROGGED TO INCREASE TONIGHT TO AROUND 20 KNOTS OVER
THE RIO GRANDE WHERE STRATUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. AREAS OF FOG
WILL LIGHT WIND FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS.

NO UPDATES PLANNED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF S TX THROUGH 14Z. LOWEST MORE PERSISTENT VSBYS ARE
GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 77 WITH ALI AND LRD EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIFR THROUGH 13-14Z. VSBY`S ARE MORE VARIABLE TO THE E OF HIGHWAY
77 WITH VCT PERIODICALLY DROPPING TO 1/4SM. CRP WIND SPEEDS ARE
CURRENTLY AROUND 5KT AND ARE KEEPING THE AIRMASS MIXED...THUS
KEEPING VSBY`S ABV 5SM FOR NOW. HOWEVER...AM EXPECTING THE VSBY TO
ALSO DROP AT CRP TO AROUND 2SM THROUGH 13Z. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS S TX BY AROUND 14Z. AREAS OF DENSE FOG
ARE EXPECTED TO DVLP ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/

DISCUSSION...LATEST IR SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE FG/LOW
STRATUS SPREADING ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN ZONES AND A MTR SITE IN
MCMULLEN COUNTY IS CURRENTLY REPORTING 1/4SM. THIS IN ADDITION TO THE
WET GROUND FROM PREVIOUS RAIN...AM EXPECTING DENSE FOG TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE
RESULTING IN PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS DVLPG ACROSS S TX THIS MORNING.
GIVEN THE LOW STRATUS INHIBITING RADIATIONAL COOLING IN SOME
LOCATIONS...ANY DENSE FOG THAT DVLPS SHOULD BE PATCHY. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE. OTHERWISE...A NICE DAY SHOULD BE ON TAP WITH PC SKIES AND
MILD TEMPS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESUME TODAY AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS E.
WITH THIS WILL COME INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPS.
WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS...DENSE FOG MAY BE MORE
LIKELY TONIGHT. FCSTD MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN EXCELLENT FOG
PROFILE BY MON MORNING. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD BEEN SHOWING PRECIP
ON MONDAY AS A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TRACKED ACROSS S TX AHD OF A
LONG WAVE TROF. HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL SOLNS ARE SHOWING A LACK OF
MOISTURE WITH VIRTUALLY NO UPPER SUPPORT NOR SUFFICIENT CAPE AND
LARGE CIN VALUES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH
MONDAY...BUT DON`T FEEL IT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT/MEASURABLE
PRECIP. HAVE LOWERED THE POPS TO 10 PERCENT ON MONDAY AND LEFT A
MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA`S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA MAINLY
DUE TO SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...BUT MAINLY AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER...HUMIDITY AND WARMER TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

MARINE...A WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME ONSHORE THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS A SFC HIGH MOVES E AND NE. A WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE
FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FNT WL CONTRIBUTE TO
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY NIGHT.  RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO PEAK ON TUE AS THE COLD FNT MOVES INTO THE CWA.  A WK S/WV ALOFT
AND A BUCKLING OF THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET TO OUR SOUTH WL FURTHER
AID IN THE DYNAMICAL FORCING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FNT. WITH DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE (PWS BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.9 INCHES) AND CAPES ABV
1500 J/KG...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WL EXIST.
LIMITED DEEP SHEAR WL LKLY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX.  WL GO
WITH GOOD CHC TO LKLY POPS FOR TUE.  PREFER THE FASTER GFS TIMING OF
THE FNT WHICH MOVES IT TWDS THE COAST BY EARLY TUE AFTN.  A RAPID
END TO THE PCPN/CLOUDS WL THEN OCCUR BEHIND THE FNT.  A DRY AND COOL
AIRMASS WL THEN BUILD INTO THE CWA THROUGH THURSDAY.  A GRADUAL
MODIFICATION TO THE AIRMASS WL BEGIN BY FRIDAY AS THE SFC RDG AXIS
BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EWD.  THIS SLOW WARMING TREND WL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    73  56  77  64  73  /   0  10  10  30  70
VICTORIA          71  50  76  59  66  /   0   0  10  30  60
LAREDO            77  60  80  65  74  /   0   0  10  30  50
ALICE             75  54  78  63  73  /   0  10  10  30  60
ROCKPORT          71  58  75  65  73  /   0   0  10  30  70
COTULLA           74  52  76  62  67  /   0   0  10  30  50
KINGSVILLE        74  54  78  63  75  /   0  10  10  30  70
NAVY CORPUS       72  59  74  67  74  /   0  10  10  30  70

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

AT/15...SHORT TERM/AVIATION

000
FXUS64 KAMA 221738 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1138 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...THE FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION. AS A RESULT...BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT A QUICK...ALBEIT BRIEF
RETURN TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS BEGINNING AROUND 00Z. THE MODELS
DEPICT THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVING TOMORROW MORNING. DUE TO TRENDS
OF RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGES...HAVE DEPICTED A MUCH FASTER ARRIVAL THAN
THE NAM SHOWS. THINK THAT THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE SHORTLY AFTER
12Z...WILL BE NEAR KDHT AND KGUY NEAR 14Z...AND KAMA ABOUT 16Z. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE IS A VERY
LOW CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WHILE A FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS A GOOD SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR LOW LEVEL CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP...THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...EVEN IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE
QUITE DRY. THEREFORE...ONLY EXPECT FEW TO SCT HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

SJOHNSON
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/

UPDATE...
A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WAS PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES...CAUSING WINDS TO VEER AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING BAND OF LOW CLOUDS ERODING AS IT
ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR WHILE LIGHT FOG AT KCDS HAS LIFTED. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS IN SOUTHEAST TX INDICATE RATHER SHALLOW LAYER OF MOIST AIR
NEAR THE SFC SO NOT EXPECTING FOG TO BE AN ISSUE IN THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER OF THE TX PANHANDLE AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. HAVE REMOVED PATCHY
FOG WORDING IN ZFP. NO OTHER CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. CLK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE ONLY CONCERN WILL
BE THE WIND SHIFT EARLY THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. SINCE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EXITS QUICKLY TO THE EAST...WIND DIRECTION SHOULD MOVE CLOCKWISE
AROUND THE DIAL...SETTLING FROM THE SOUTH BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.

NUNEZ

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/

DISCUSSION...
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST AS QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES FOR THE PANHANDLES. UPPER TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE
ROCKIES THIS MORNING WITH A SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN NM. SURFACE
OBS AT 09Z INDICATE A COLD FRONT SAGGING INTO SOUTHERN CO...WITH
THIS FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLES DURING THE MORNING.
AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG INDICATED OFF THE 11-3.9
SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS PUSHING INTO THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TX
PANHANDLE WHERE A SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW HAS TAPPED INTO THE HIGHER
DEWPOINT AIR IN NORTHERN TX. HAVE MENTIONED PATCHY FOG THROUGH
AROUND 13Z BEFORE DRIER AIR WILL HELP TO ERODE ANY LINGERING
FOG/CLOUD COVER. FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES BY NOON.
COLD ADVECTION ON NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN SATURDAY ALTHOUGH WITH SOME SUN SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. WEAK SURFACE ANTICYCLONE BUILDS INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT WHICH WILL
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER LOWS. LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
ROCKIES MONDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. FORECAST REMAINS DRY AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS SCARCE. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT
WILL ONLY SERVE TO KNOCK TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO BUT SHOULD STILL
SEE HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.

UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW AS IT HEADS INTO THE MID
MS VALLEY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL LEAVE THE PANHANDLES WITH A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WITH WARMING TEMPS IS
STILL ON TRACK THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ECMWF IS
INDICATING A PATTERN CHANGE IN THE DAY 8-10 TIME FRAME AS IT
INDICATES AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE
GFS LOOKS LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THIS SYSTEM ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS DO
BRING SOME QPF OVER THE AREA BY MONDAY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT IF THIS WERE TO VERIFY...THIS
MAY BE THE NEXT SHOT OF PRECIP FOR THE PANHANDLES. CLK

FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW AS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AND 20
FOOT WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY SEE
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL BETWEEN 15 AND 20 PERCENT...20
FOOT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH. A DRY AND MILD WEATHER PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. WHILE MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES MAY FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES...20 FOOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH. THUS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK
LOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

16/15

000
FXUS64 KLUB 221725
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1125 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009


.AVIATION...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED THROUGH BOTH TERMINALS THIS
MORNING BUT LITTLE ADDITIONAL SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION IS
EXPECTED BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND VEER IN ADVANCE OF
NEXT SYSTEM. VFR CONDITIONS...WITH SLIGHTLY GUSTY WINDS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AT KLBB...ARE EXPECTED. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT A
STRONG COLD FRONT COULD ENTER THE REGION BEFORE 18Z MONDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FCST ATTM. 26


&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/

SHORT TERM...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CAPTURED A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROF
MIGRATING OUT OF ERN NM AND THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO
THE CWA LATER THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...A NARROW
CONVEYOR OF MOIST AIR ADVECTION GENERATED A BAND OF STRATUS WITH
SOME FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS...HOWEVER APPROACH OF
THE FRONT AND MORE IMPORTANTLY A REMNANT LEE TROF WILL EVENTUALLY
ERODE THIS LAYER AS WINDS VEER WESTERLY. GIVEN THE SHALLOW NATURE
TO THE UPPER WAVE...THE MOST NOTICEABLE COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BE RELEGATED TO OUR NRN ZONES. HEIGHT FIELDS THEN FLATTEN
QUICKLY OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A MORE VIGOROUS TROF AND COLD
FRONT FOR MONDAY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS WILL BE VEERING FROM NLY
TO SLY OVERNIGHT...LOW TEMPS WERE TRIMMED AREA WIDE GIVEN THE
LIGHT NATURE TO THESE WINDS AND DRIER LOW LEVELS ESPECIALLY OFF
THE CAPROCK.

LONG TERM...
00Z RUNS OF THE MODEL ARE SHOWING A BIT SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME ISSUES WITH
MAX TEMPS. ALSO COMPOUNDING THE MAX TEMP FORECAST IS A WINDOW OF
WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR THE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY HELP
TO BUMP TEMPS UP QUITE A BIT MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. OPTED
TO GO AHEAD AND RAISE MAX TEMPS FOR MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...BUT HELD THE NORTHERN COUNTIES CLOSER TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
/MID 60S/. REGARDLESS...FRONT PUSHES THROUGH BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH
THE SFC RIDGE SETTLING IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN COLD MIN TEMPS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND HELP TO HOLD MAX
TEMPS DOWN AS WELL.

DIFFERENCES ARE CONTINUING TO CREEP INTO THE EXTENDED RANGE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST. ECMWF
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IN THE UPPER MIDWEST
FURTHER WEST THAN THE GFS WHICH KEEPS A SERIES OF WEEK COLD FRONT
PUSHING INTO THE REGION. GFS CARRIES THE COLDEST AIRMASSES EAST OF
THE REGION WITH ONLY GLANCING BLOWS. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
NEAR NORMAL HOWEVER WITH NO CHANCES FOR RAIN. COULD BE SOME BIGGER
CHANGES FOR THE END OF THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND /WHICH IS BEYOND
THE END OF THIS FORECAST/ BUT THE ECMWF/CMC/GFS ALL HAVE DIFFERENT
SCENARIOS PLAYING OUT...AS USUAL.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        60  23  62  24  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         63  25  65  27  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     65  28  67  31  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     66  29  71  28  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       68  32  72  31  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   69  31  73  29  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    69  33  74  27  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     65  37  69  37  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          70  35  73  37  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     71  37  73  37  60 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26

000
FXUS64 KHGX 221719
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1119 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...
LOW STRATUS AND FOG WHICH DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE MOSTLY
BURNED OFF. SFC HIGH ALONG WITH SUBSIDENT AIRMASS SETTLING ACROSS
SE TX WILL RESULT IN A GREAT AFTERNOON. EXPECT LOTS OF SUNSHINE
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE
THE FORECAST.

35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/

UPDATE...
UPDATED 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
THIS PACKAGE`S MAIN QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE REGION WILL
BE UNDER A DENSE BLANKET OF MONDAY MORNING FOG...OR NOT. ALL
INDICATIONS POINT TOWARDS AREAWIDE FOG FORMATION DURING THE
23/08Z-14Z WINDOW. NEGATIVES ARE THAT WE ARE SLOW TO ACHIEVE
SATURATION THIS MORNING...BUT A FEW MORE NON-URBAN SITES ARE
FINALLY BEGINNING TO CRATER AS WE HEAD INTO SUNRISE. THE OTHER IS
NUMERICAL MODELING...FOG DEVELOPMENT IS JUST NOT BEING RESOLVED BY
THE LATEST RUNS. HEAVIER POSITIVES ARE A SATURATED GROUND...CALM
WIND...AND THE BULK OF DRIER AIR THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE COLUMN. AS
EARLY MONDAY AM TEMPS LOWER INTO THE UPPER 40S...DEPRESSIONS
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO (OR AT) ZERO PER MID-UPPER 40 DEW POINTS.
AMPLE AVAILABLE LL MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAIN SHOULD BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE DENSE FOG SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THUS...WITH
LITTLE TO NO ANTICIPATED CHANGE IN THE 24 HR WEATHER PATTERN...TAFS
ARE LEANING TOWARDS THE PHILOSOPHY OF DENSE FOG FORMATION DURING
MONDAY`S PUSH. 31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING AND
THEN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. WE`LL SEE WARMER DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH THE HIGH MOVING EAST OF
THE AREA ON MONDAY...MOISTURE LEVELS BEGIN TO RISE AS WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL
AND PASSAGE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE ONSHORE FLOW REMAINS ON THE
WEAK SIDE AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY...SO WILL STICK WITH CHANCE POPS LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
CONTROL OF THE AREA WITH A DRY AIRMASS AND COOL TEMPERATURES. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ON THANKSGIVING WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS
IN THE 60S. NEXT WEEKEND...AN ONSHORE FLOW COMES BACK TO THE AREA AS
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMING TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED.  42

MARINE...
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WINDS AND SEAS HAVE WEAKENED TO BELOW SCEC.
QUIET PATTERN TODAY UNDER LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW SEAS. EASTERN
HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THIS RECENT LOW WILL AID IN
TURNING THESE BREEZES AROUND TO ONSHORE EARLY MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT IS TIMED TO CROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT THAT WILL INITIATE
SCA FLAGS GOING INTO...AND THROUGH...WEDNESDAY. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      70  48  75  56  68 /   0   0  10  30  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              70  48  76  61  72 /   0   0  10  30  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            66  55  73  64  73 /   0   0  10  30  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...35

000
FXUS64 KMAF 221718
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1118 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRIEFLY SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE BACKING AROUND TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION
TONIGHT. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL MAKE FOR GREAT AVIATION
WEATHER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

HENNIG

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

000
FXUS64 KSJT 221708
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1108 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009



.DISCUSSION...

READ 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW
&&

.AVIATION...

MORNING PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS HAS DISSIPATED...SO VFR CONDITIONS
HAVE RETURNED TO ALL TERMINALS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHEN PATCHY BR AND STRATUS
RETURNS TO MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LOW CIGS WILL BE MONDAY MORNING...THE NAM AND
GFS ONLY SHOW LOW CLOUDS AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KJCT AND
KSOA BUT LASTEST BUFKIT INDICATES PATCHY BR AT ALL TERMINALS SO
FOR NOW ONLY HAVE IFR CIGS AT KJCT AND KSOA AND MVFR CIGS
ELSEWHERE...THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL WINDS AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH WINDS DECREASING AFTER SUNSET.

 &&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/

UPDATE...
UPDATED ZONES TO REMOVE MORNING FOG

DISCUSSION...
THE MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS...EXCEPT ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF TH
HEARTLAND. TWEAKED THE CURRENT DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT THE INCREASED
MOISTURE BUT OTHER THAN THAN CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL DISSIPATE BY MID AND LATE MORNING. IFR CEILINGS ARE
LIKELY WITH OCCASIONAL LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KT TODAY. LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/

SHORT TERM...
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG OCCURRING EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR COUNTIES...WHERE THE HIGHER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RESIDES. EXPECT THESE TO DISSIPATE
AROUND MID MORNING WITH A MAINLY SUNNY SKY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
PER THE 850 MB THERMAL PATTERN...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THE 00Z GFS AND NAM20 ARE NOT AS AGRESSIVE WITH THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE INCREASE/LOW CLOUD RETURN EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS
YESTERDAY/S GFS. STILL EXPECT LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT/ADVECTION INTO
AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN THIRD WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. BASED ON TRENDS IN
RECENT DAYS...GOING WITH OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW OR
NEAR THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE.

LONG TERM...
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AREAWIDE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ADVANCING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE MON NIGHT/EARLY
TUE. THE GFS/NAM VERY SIMILAR WITH THE FRONT WHICH CLEARS THE
SOUTHERN CWFA AROUND 12Z TUE. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE HEARTLAND AND NW HILL COUNTRY
LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING AS BOTH THE GFS AND NAM INDICATE
SOME LIGHT QPF DEVELOPING BUT ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT
AS MOISTURE WILL BE VERY SHALLOW. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER
BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 60S. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TUE NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO NEAR
FREEZING MOST AREAS. THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG
SHORT WAVE DIVING SE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WED WHICH CARVES
OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THU AND FRI WITH STRONG
RIDGING OVER THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  70  42  74  43  62 /   0   0   0  10  10
SAN ANGELO  72  41  75  43  61 /   0   0   0  10  10
JUNCTION  71  41  73  49  63 /   0   0   0  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/28

000
FXUS64 KFWD 221707 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1107 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.AVIATION...
BAND OF IFR/MVFR CIGS CURRENTLY ALONG AND JUST WEST OF I-35 FROM
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA DOWN TO KACT AND THEN INTO THE KSAT AREA. EXPECT
CIGS TO LIFT AND BREAK 18-20Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. AS SURFACE LAYER COOLS TONIGHT...AREAS OF
2-5SM BR ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10-15Z AND HAVE ADDED TO THE
MIDDAY TAFS.

LOW PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY SEEN PER VIS SAT LOOPS EAST
OF KDDC WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE TO SOUTH OF KINK. THIS FRONT WILL NOT ARRIVE KDFW TRACON UNTIL
BEYOND THIS TAF CYCLE BUT WILL PROVIDE FOR SOME INCREASE IN SPEEDS
ON MONDAY. 75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS THE DENSE FOG
AROUND NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. MANY AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE
METROPLEX HAVE HAD VSBYS DROP TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS. UNCERTAIN
HOW MUCH FOG WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP IN THE METROPLEX EARLY THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER RECENT RAINFALL...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
PROVIDE IDEAL RADIATIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT THRU
SUNRISE. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE A FEW HOURS OF SUNSHINE TO BURN OFF
THE MORNING FOG...THEREFORE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM CDT. FOR AREAS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA THE SFC RIDGE HAS ALREADY MOVED OFF TO THE
EAST ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PICK UP INTO THE 10 TO 15 MPH
RANGE. THESE AREAS HAVE SEEN A STRATUS DECK DEVELOP AS OPPOSED TO
DENSE FOG...AND THIS STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE A BIT SLOW TO
BURN OFF THIS MORNING. ASSUMING THE STRATUS DOES MIX OUT AS
EXPECTED...EXPECT MOST AREAS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S FOR HIGHS
TODAY WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY THE AFTERNOON HRS.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BUT REMAIN NORTH OF THE RED RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. DO NOT
EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE...HOWEVER COULD SEE
SOME AFTERNOON MID TO HIGH LVL CLOUDS DEVELOP FOR AREAS NEAR THE
RED RIVER. OTHERWISE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS TODAY APPROACHING
THE GREAT PLAINS BY MONDAY. THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...KEEPING NORTH TX
UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE BULK OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
SOMEWHAT SHALLOW GULF MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO NORTH TX WITH
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW...POSSIBLY BRINGING A STRATUS/STRATA CU
DECK OVER THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE PLAINS SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTH TX MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE NAM IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS
FRONT...BUT DUE TO ITS RELATIVE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ON THE
TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...MAINTAINED THE SOMEWHAT FASTER GFS TIMING
WITH THIS FORECAST. WITH THE BULK OF THE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
RED RIVER DO NOT EXPECT MUCH COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY
ALONG THE COLD FRONT.  SOME ISOLATED OR SCATTERED ACTIVITY LOOKS
LIKELY AT THIS TIME...SO MAINTAINED THE 20-30 PERCENT POPS FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. DEPENDING ON THE QUALITY OF THE MOISTURE RETURN
ON MONDAY...WE COULD SEE SOME EMBEDDED TSTM ACTIVITY ALONG THE
FRONT AS WELL...BUT FOR NOW...MOISTURE RETURN LOOKS TOO MEAGER TO
PUT THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. BEHIND THE FRONT...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN MUCH DRIER LOW LVL AIRMASS PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
REGION...SO SHOULD SEE QUICK END TO PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
CLEARING SKIES FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED FORECAST...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY AT
THIS TIME. SOME NOTABLE FEATURES DURING THE PERIOD INCLUDE ANOTHER
STRONG PIECE OF ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH IN THE MERIDIONAL UPPER LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS.
WITH LOW LVL FLOW LOOKING TO REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH BETWEEN UPPER
LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...THIS SECOND WAVE WILL LIKELY ONLY SEND A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL...DRY AIR SOUTH THROUGH NORTH TX. WHILE
TECHNICALLY THIS MARKS A SECOND FRONTAL PASSAGE...DO NOT EXPECT
ANY IMPACTS ON LOCAL SENSIBLE WEATHER OUTSIDE OF LOWERING DEW
POINT VALUES BY SEVERAL DEGREES. OTHERWISE MODELS CONTINUE TO
OFFER VARYING SOLUTIONS ON LARGE SCALE FLOW HEADED INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...AND WITHOUT CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT KEPT THE WEEKEND DRY
FOR NOW. ECMWF OFFERS THE WETTEST SOLUTION...BRINGING A CUT OFF
LOW OVER NEW MEXICO...BUT AGAIN WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME CONSENSUS
BEFORE MENTIONING RAIN OR TSTMS IN THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE A
FAIRLY QUIET AND COOL FORECAST AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
TUESDAY.      CAVANAUGH

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/

000
FXUS64 KEWX 221648
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1048 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRYING TO MIX OUT UNDER A LOW LEVEL INVERSION
LATE THIS MORNING. AMENDED SKY GRIDS TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE AFTERNOON. DRY AIR
ALOFT AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON..CLEARING THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/

AVIATION...
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIFR-VLIFR CIGS AND VSBYS ACROSS S CENTRAL TX
THIS MORNING THAT WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 15-16Z BEFORE LIFTING
AND BURNING OFF TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
WILL BE VARIABLE THIS MORNING...BUT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
DETERIORATE AT SUNRISE AND A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE...BEFORE THE
HEATING WILL BURN OFF AND MIX OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. VFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...HOWEVER PATCHY FOG IS
LIKELY TO REDEVELOP AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/

DISCUSSION...
MOIST GROUNDS AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ENABLED RADIATIONAL FOG TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING SO HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
UNTIL 10 AM. VISIBILITIES WILL SUDDENLY BE REDUCED TO ONE QUARTER
OF A MILE OR LESS...SO BE SURE TO ALLOW EXTRA DRIVING TIME TO
REACH YOUR DESTINATION SAFELY. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE BY MID-MORNING ENABLING GOOD MIXING TO LIFT/DISSIPATE THE
FOG BY ABOUT 10 AM. SUNNY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING NEAR 70.

ANOTHER BATCH OF FOG IS EXPECTED EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WARM GULF
RETURN FLOW WILL ENABLE TEMPERATURES TO REACH A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
THAN TODAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE
DAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHING ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS WILL ENABLE A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP
INTO THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND PEAK
ON TUESDAY BEFORE DROPPING OUT OF THE PICTURE TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 DUE TO
DEEPER MOISTURE.

ONCE THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION...DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL
RESUME FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD BE
SUNNY AND MILD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 70. DRY AND SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH A GRADUAL MOISTENING TREND EXPECTED ONCE RETURN FLOW RESUMES
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              70  51  75  57  64 /   0   0  -   20  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  43  74  56  63 /   0   0  -   30  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     71  47  74  56  64 /   0   0  -   30  50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  48  70  52  63 /   0   0  -   20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           71  50  75  56  65 /   0   0  -   20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        69  48  73  54  63 /   0   0  -   20  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             72  45  74  60  63 /   0   0  -   30  50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        69  46  75  56  63 /   0   0  -   30  50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   70  50  75  58  66 /   0   0  -   30  50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       71  51  74  59  66 /   0   0  -   30  50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           71  50  74  60  65 /   0   0  -   30  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

02/26

000
FXUS64 KSJT 221624
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1024 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.UPDATE...
UPDATED ZONES TO REMOVE MORNING FOG

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS...EXCEPT ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF TH
HEARTLAND. TWEAKED THE CURRENT DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT THE INCREASED
MOISTURE BUT OTHER THAN THAN CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL DISSIPATE BY MID AND LATE MORNING. IFR CEILINGS ARE
LIKELY WITH OCCASIONAL LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KT TODAY. LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/

SHORT TERM...
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG OCCURRING EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR COUNTIES...WHERE THE HIGHER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RESIDES. EXPECT THESE TO DISSIPATE
AROUND MID MORNING WITH A MAINLY SUNNY SKY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
PER THE 850 MB THERMAL PATTERN...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THE 00Z GFS AND NAM20 ARE NOT AS AGRESSIVE WITH THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE INCREASE/LOW CLOUD RETURN EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS
YESTERDAY/S GFS. STILL EXPECT LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT/ADVECTION INTO
AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN THIRD WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. BASED ON TRENDS IN
RECENT DAYS...GOING WITH OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW OR
NEAR THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE.

LONG TERM...
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AREAWIDE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ADVANCING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE MON NIGHT/EARLY
TUE. THE GFS/NAM VERY SIMILAR WITH THE FRONT WHICH CLEARS THE
SOUTHERN CWFA AROUND 12Z TUE. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE HEARTLAND AND NW HILL COUNTRY
LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING AS BOTH THE GFS AND NAM INDICATE
SOME LIGHT QPF DEVELOPING BUT ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT
AS MOISTURE WILL BE VERY SHALLOW. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER
BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 60S. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TUE NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO NEAR
FREEZING MOST AREAS. THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG
SHORT WAVE DIVING SE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WED WHICH CARVES
OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THU AND FRI WITH STRONG
RIDGING OVER THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  70  42  74  43  62 /   0   0   0  10  10
SAN ANGELO  72  41  75  43  61 /   0   0   0  10  10
JUNCTION  71  41  73  49  63 /   0   0   0  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

28/99

000
FXUS64 KBRO 221526
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
926 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR THIS MORNING/S
UPDATE. DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRED AT 15Z AS MOST AREAS ARE SEEING
VSBY IMPROVEMENTS AS SUNSHINE GETS GOING. REMOVED THE FOG WORDING
FROM THIS MORNING...AND RETAINED A LITTLE MORE CLD COVER THRU
MIDDAY NEAR OUR CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES NEAR THE RIO GRANDE
RIVER. LOWERED DAYTIME HIGHS IN THESE AREAS BY A DEGREE OR TWO AS
CLDS MAY PERSIST THRU THIS MORNING/S HEATING PERIOD. ADJUSTED CLD
COVER IN THE SHORT TERM MAINLY FOR CONSISTENCY PURPOSES. THE REST
OF THE FCST LOOKS OKAY THRU TDA WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AS TEMPS CLIMB TO LATE NOVEMBER NORMS. UPDATED ZONES
WILL BE SENT OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...THE MORNING CLD COVER AND FOG IS CURRENTLY CONCENTRATED
OVER THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY MAINLY WEST
OF HIGHWAY 281. THE DAYTIME HEATING WILL STEADILY MIX OUT THE
SURFACE LAYER DIMINISHING THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS DECKS. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG WILL BE A POTENTIAL PROBLEM
ONCE AGAIN AFTER 06Z TONIGHT POSSIBLY REDUCING VSBYS AND CEILINGS
DOWN TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW ESPECIALLY FOR THE
HRL AND MFE AREAS. WILL REFLECT THIS EXPECTED TREND IN THE 18Z TAF
ISSUANCE.

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT NORTH SURFACE FLOW CURRENTLY PREVAILS OVER THE
LOWER TX BAY AND GULF WATERS THIS MORNING WITH BUOY020 REPORTING
SWELLS NEAR 3 FEET. THE MARINE WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING AROUND TO A
MORE ONSHORE FLOW LATER TODAY BUT WILL REMAIN LIGHT. THIS SHOULD
LIMIT THE SWELLS TO AROUND 3 FT IN THE SHORT TERM. NO MAJOR CHANGES
EXPECTED WITH THE NEXT MARINE FORECAST ISSUANCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 240 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/...DENSE
FOG COVERS MOST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS MORNING AS LIGHT
WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE ARE IN PLACE. SKIES WILL CLEAR SOON
AFTER SUNRISE...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S. THE
UPPER TROF THAT USHERED IN OUR COOLER AIRMASS HAS MOVED TO LA/MS
NOW. ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTH THRU THE GREAT
PLAINS MONDAY...THEN HEADING EAST TO THE OH VLY TUESDAY...PULLING
ANOTHER CF THRU OUR REGION. CONVECTION/ISOLD TSTMS SHUD ACCOMPANY
THE FROPA ACROSS OUR REGION DURING TUESDAY. PRIMARY FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND DEEP LAYER FLOW PASSES N OF OUR REGION...WITH WARM
LAYER NEAR H85...SHOULD REDUCE THE THREAT FOR SVR TSTMS DURING
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH AREAS JUST NORTHEAST MAY EXPERIENCE SVR TSTM
DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY.

MARINE...SEAS WERE NEAR 5 FEET WITH NORTH WINDS AT 6 KNOTS AT
BUOY020 EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER TX COAST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE A
COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THE LOWER TX COAST TUES AFTERNOON. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TUES NIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NORTH AND INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. STRONG NORTH WINDS
WILL PREVAIL TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD TO
NEAR 10 FEET OFFSHORE. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH WED
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO BEGINS TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY.

AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
AREAS OF FOG ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. CEILINGS WERE NEAR 100FT AT
KBRO TO NEAR 1100FT AT KHRL. VISIBILITIES WERE NEAR 1/4SM WITH FOG
AT KHRL TO NEAR 3/4SM WITH FOG AT KBRO. LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING AS FOG CONTINUES TO REDUCE CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA.
CALM WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM THE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TX. EXPECT MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
ALLOWING FOG TO DEVELOP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  76  65  80  70 /   0   0   0  30
BROWNSVILLE          79  63  82  69 /   0   0   0  30
HARLINGEN            78  62  81  66 /   0   0   0  30
MCALLEN              78  62  81  65 /   0   0   0  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      76  59  79  63 /   0   0   0  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   75  64  79  69 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...VIPOND-57
MARINE/AVIATION...SPEECE-60
MESO/GRAPHICAST...VEGA

000
FXUS64 KCRP 221521
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
921 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...PATCHY FOG ALONG THE COASTAL BEND DISSIPATED
QUICKLY WITH SUNRISE. INLAND FOG WAS THICKER PER SATELLITE
FOG DEPTH AND CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTS LOW STRATUS
FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO GEORGE WEST. MOST AREAS HAVE
VISIBILITY MUCH IMPROVED EXPECT PATCHY SPOTS LIKE BEEVILLE.

STRONG INVERSION OVER THE AREA WITH H850 TEMPS 12-14C TODAY.
POOR MIXING WITH LIGHT WIND WILL LIMIT MAX TEMPS TO UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S FOR THE COASTAL BEND AND MID TO UPPER 70S FOR
THE RIO GRANDE WHERE A DEEPER MIXED LAYER IS FORECAST. LOTS
OF SUN TODAY WITH ONLY SCATTERED STRATOCU.

LOW LEVEL JET PROGGED TO INCREASE TONIGHT TO AROUND 20 KNOTS OVER
THE RIO GRANDE WHERE STRATUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. AREAS OF FOG
WILL LIGHT WIND FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS.

NO UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF S TX THROUGH 14Z. LOWEST MORE PERSISTENT VSBYS ARE
GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 77 WITH ALI AND LRD EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIFR THROUGH 13-14Z. VSBY`S ARE MORE VARIABLE TO THE E OF HIGHWAY
77 WITH VCT PERIODICALLY DROPPING TO 1/4SM. CRP WIND SPEEDS ARE
CURRENTLY AROUND 5KT AND ARE KEEPING THE AIRMASS MIXED...THUS
KEEPING VSBY`S ABV 5SM FOR NOW. HOWEVER...AM EXPECTING THE VSBY TO
ALSO DROP AT CRP TO AROUND 2SM THROUGH 13Z. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS S TX BY AROUND 14Z. AREAS OF DENSE FOG
ARE EXPECTED TO DVLP ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/

DISCUSSION...LATEST IR SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE FG/LOW
STRATUS SPREADING ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN ZONES AND A MTR SITE IN
MCMULLEN COUNTY IS CURRENTLY REPORTING 1/4SM. THIS IN ADDITION TO THE
WET GROUND FROM PREVIOUS RAIN...AM EXPECTING DENSE FOG TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE
RESULTING IN PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS DVLPG ACROSS S TX THIS MORNING.
GIVEN THE LOW STRATUS INHIBITING RADIATIONAL COOLING IN SOME
LOCATIONS...ANY DENSE FOG THAT DVLPS SHOULD BE PATCHY. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE. OTHERWISE...A NICE DAY SHOULD BE ON TAP WITH PC SKIES AND
MILD TEMPS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESUME TODAY AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS E.
WITH THIS WILL COME INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPS.
WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS...DENSE FOG MAY BE MORE
LIKELY TONIGHT. FCSTD MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN EXCELLENT FOG
PROFILE BY MON MORNING. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD BEEN SHOWING PRECIP
ON MONDAY AS A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TRACKED ACROSS S TX AHD OF A
LONG WAVE TROF. HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL SOLNS ARE SHOWING A LACK OF
MOISTURE WITH VIRTUALLY NO UPPER SUPPORT NOR SUFFICIENT CAPE AND
LARGE CIN VALUES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH
MONDAY...BUT DON`T FEEL IT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT/MEASURABLE
PRECIP. HAVE LOWERED THE POPS TO 10 PERCENT ON MONDAY AND LEFT A
MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA`S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA MAINLY
DUE TO SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...BUT MAINLY AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER...HUMIDITY AND WARMER TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

MARINE...A WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME ONSHORE THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS A SFC HIGH MOVES E AND NE. A WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE
FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FNT WL CONTRIBUTE TO
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY NIGHT.  RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO PEAK ON TUE AS THE COLD FNT MOVES INTO THE CWA.  A WK S/WV ALOFT
AND A BUCKLING OF THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET TO OUR SOUTH WL FURTHER
AID IN THE DYNAMICAL FORCING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FNT. WITH DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE (PWS BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.9 INCHES) AND CAPES ABV
1500 J/KG...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WL EXIST.
LIMITED DEEP SHEAR WL LKLY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX.  WL GO
WITH GOOD CHC TO LKLY POPS FOR TUE.  PREFER THE FASTER GFS TIMING OF
THE FNT WHICH MOVES IT TWDS THE COAST BY EARLY TUE AFTN.  A RAPID
END TO THE PCPN/CLOUDS WL THEN OCCUR BEHIND THE FNT.  A DRY AND COOL
AIRMASS WL THEN BUILD INTO THE CWA THROUGH THURSDAY.  A GRADUAL
MODIFICATION TO THE AIRMASS WL BEGIN BY FRIDAY AS THE SFC RDG AXIS
BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EWD.  THIS SLOW WARMING TREND WL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    73  56  77  64  73  /   0  10  10  30  70
VICTORIA          71  50  76  59  66  /   0   0  10  30  60
LAREDO            77  60  80  65  74  /   0   0  10  30  50
ALICE             75  54  78  63  73  /   0  10  10  30  60
ROCKPORT          71  58  75  65  73  /   0   0  10  30  70
COTULLA           74  52  76  62  67  /   0   0  10  30  50
KINGSVILLE        74  54  78  63  75  /   0  10  10  30  70
NAVY CORPUS       72  59  74  67  74  /   0  10  10  30  70

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

AT/15...SHORT TERM

000
FXUS64 KAMA 221214 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
614 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.UPDATE...
A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WAS PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES...CAUSING WINDS TO VEER AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING BAND OF LOW CLOUDS ERODING AS IT
ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR WHILE LIGHT FOG AT KCDS HAS LIFTED. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS IN SOUTHEAST TX INDICATE RATHER SHALLOW LAYER OF MOIST AIR
NEAR THE SFC SO NOT EXPECTING FOG TO BE AN ISSUE IN THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER OF THE TX PANHANDLE AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. HAVE REMOVED PATCHY
FOG WORDING IN ZFP. NO OTHER CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE ONLY CONCERN WILL
BE THE WIND SHIFT EARLY THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. SINCE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EXITS QUICKLY TO THE EAST...WIND DIRECTION SHOULD MOVE CLOCKWISE
AROUND THE DIAL...SETTLING FROM THE SOUTH BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.

NUNEZ

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/

DISCUSSION...
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST AS QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES FOR THE PANHANDLES. UPPER TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE
ROCKIES THIS MORNING WITH A SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN NM. SURFACE
OBS AT 09Z INDICATE A COLD FRONT SAGGING INTO SOUTHERN CO...WITH
THIS FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLES DURING THE MORNING.
AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG INDICATED OFF THE 11-3.9
SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS PUSHING INTO THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TX
PANHANDLE WHERE A SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW HAS TAPPED INTO THE HIGHER
DEWPOINT AIR IN NORTHERN TX. HAVE MENTIONED PATCHY FOG THROUGH
AROUND 13Z BEFORE DRIER AIR WILL HELP TO ERODE ANY LINGERING
FOG/CLOUD COVER. FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES BY NOON.
COLD ADVECTION ON NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN SATURDAY ALTHOUGH WITH SOME SUN SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. WEAK SURFACE ANTICYCLONE BUILDS INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT WHICH WILL
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER LOWS. LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
ROCKIES MONDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. FORECAST REMAINS DRY AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS SCARCE. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT
WILL ONLY SERVE TO KNOCK TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO BUT SHOULD STILL
SEE HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.

UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW AS IT HEADS INTO THE MID
MS VALLEY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL LEAVE THE PANHANDLES WITH A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WITH WARMING TEMPS IS
STILL ON TRACK THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ECMWF IS
INDICATING A PATTERN CHANGE IN THE DAY 8-10 TIME FRAME AS IT
INDICATES AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE
GFS LOOKS LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THIS SYSTEM ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS DO
BRING SOME QPF OVER THE AREA BY MONDAY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT IF THIS WERE TO VERIFY...THIS
MAY BE THE NEXT SHOT OF PRECIP FOR THE PANHANDLES. CLK

FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW AS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AND 20
FOOT WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY SEE
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL BETWEEN 15 AND 20 PERCENT...20
FOOT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH. A DRY AND MILD WEATHER PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. WHILE MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES MAY FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES...20 FOOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH. THUS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK
LOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/05

000
FXUS64 KHGX 221203
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
603 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.UPDATE...
UPDATED 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
THIS PACKAGE`S MAIN QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE REGION WILL
BE UNDER A DENSE BLANKET OF MONDAY MORNING FOG...OR NOT. ALL
INDICATIONS POINT TOWARDS AREAWIDE FOG FORMATION DURING THE
23/08Z-14Z WINDOW. NEGATIVES ARE THAT WE ARE SLOW TO ACHIEVE
SATURATION THIS MORNING...BUT A FEW MORE NON-URBAN SITES ARE
FINALLY BEGINNING TO CRATER AS WE HEAD INTO SUNRISE. THE OTHER IS
NUMERICAL MODELING...FOG DEVELOPMENT IS JUST NOT BEING RESOLVED BY
THE LATEST RUNS. HEAVIER POSITIVES ARE A SATURATED GROUND...CALM
WIND...AND THE BULK OF DRIER AIR THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE COLUMN. AS
EARLY MONDAY AM TEMPS LOWER INTO THE UPPER 40S...DEPRESSIONS
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO (OR AT) ZERO PER MID-UPPER 40 DEW POINTS.
AMPLE AVAILABLE LL MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAIN SHOULD BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE DENSE FOG SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THUS...WITH
LITTLE TO NO ANTICIPATED CHANGE IN THE 24 HR WEATHER PATTERN...TAFS
ARE LEANING TOWARDS THE PHILOSOPHY OF DENSE FOG FORMATION DURING
MONDAY`S PUSH. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING AND
THEN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. WE`LL SEE WARMER DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH THE HIGH MOVING EAST OF
THE AREA ON MONDAY...MOISTURE LEVELS BEGIN TO RISE AS WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL
AND PASSAGE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE ONSHORE FLOW REMAINS ON THE
WEAK SIDE AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY...SO WILL STICK WITH CHANCE POPS LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
CONTROL OF THE AREA WITH A DRY AIRMASS AND COOL TEMPERATURES. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ON THANKSGIVING WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS
IN THE 60S. NEXT WEEKEND...AN ONSHORE FLOW COMES BACK TO THE AREA AS
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMING TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED.  42

&&

MARINE...
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WINDS AND SEAS HAVE WEAKENED TO BELOW SCEC.
QUIET PATTERN TODAY UNDER LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW SEAS. EASTERN
HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THIS RECENT LOW WILL AID IN
TURNING THESE BREEZES AROUND TO ONSHORE EARLY MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT IS TIMED TO CROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT THAT WILL INITIATE
SCA FLAGS GOING INTO...AND THROUGH...WEDNESDAY. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      70  48  75  56  68 /   0   0  10  30  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              70  48  76  61  72 /   0   0  10  30  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            66  55  73  64  73 /   0   0  10  30  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31

000
FXUS64 KSJT 221158 AAA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
558 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL DISSIPATE BY MID AND LATE MORNING. IFR CEILINGS ARE
LIKELY WITH OCCASIONAL LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KT TODAY. LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/

SHORT TERM...
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG OCCURRING EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR COUNTIES...WHERE THE HIGHER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RESIDES. EXPECT THESE TO DISSIPATE
AROUND MID MORNING WITH A MAINLY SUNNY SKY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
PER THE 850 MB THERMAL PATTERN...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THE 00Z GFS AND NAM20 ARE NOT AS AGRESSIVE WITH THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE INCREASE/LOW CLOUD RETURN EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS
YESTERDAY/S GFS. STILL EXPECT LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT/ADVECTION INTO
AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN THIRD WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. BASED ON TRENDS IN
RECENT DAYS...GOING WITH OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW OR
NEAR THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE.

LONG TERM...
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AREAWIDE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ADVANCING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE MON NIGHT/EARLY
TUE. THE GFS/NAM VERY SIMILAR WITH THE FRONT WHICH CLEARS THE
SOUTHERN CWFA AROUND 12Z TUE. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE HEARTLAND AND NW HILL COUNTRY
LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING AS BOTH THE GFS AND NAM INDICATE
SOME LIGHT QPF DEVELOPING BUT ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT
AS MOISTURE WILL BE VERY SHALLOW. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER
BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 60S. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TUE NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO NEAR
FREEZING MOST AREAS. THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG
SHORT WAVE DIVING SE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WED WHICH CARVES
OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THU AND FRI WITH STRONG
RIDGING OVER THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  69  42  74  43  62 /   0   0   0  10  10
SAN ANGELO  72  41  75  43  61 /   0   0   0  10  10
JUNCTION  71  41  73  49  63 /   0   0   0  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

19/24/19

000
FXUS64 KMAF 221146
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
546 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL AREA TERMINALS THROUGH 23/12Z.
AN AREA OF MVFR TO IFR CLOUD DECKS EXTENDING ROUGHLY EAST OF A K6R6...
KSJT...TO KSWW LINE IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH MORE TO THE WEST AS
LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SURFACE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AOA 12 KTS AT KHOB AND KMAF LATER THIS
MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70

000
FXUS64 KFWD 221140 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
540 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

DENSE FOG WEST OF TAF SITES MUCH OF THE NIGHT HAS DEVELOPED
EASTWARD...ENVELOPING SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR
THROUGH DAYBREAK AS NEAR-SATURATED SURFACE LAYER CONTINUES TO
RADIATE.

EVERY TAF IS SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT...WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
VSBY AND TIMING OF RECOVERY. LOVE FIELD MAY HAVE THE LEAST IMPACTS
IF FOG ONLY BEGINS TO APPROACH NEAR SUNRISE. INSOLATION WILL BE
UNIMPEDED BY MID/HIGH CLOUDS...AND FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID-
MORNING. VSBY IMPROVEMENT WILL BE GRADUAL.

EXTENDED...
DO NOT EXPECT STRATUS MONDAY MORNING. SOME INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS
BY LATE MORNING MONDAY.

25

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS THE DENSE FOG
AROUND NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. MANY AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE
METROPLEX HAVE HAD VSBYS DROP TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS. UNCERTAIN
HOW MUCH FOG WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP IN THE METROPLEX EARLY THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER RECENT RAINFALL...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
PROVIDE IDEAL RADIATIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT THRU
SUNRISE. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE A FEW HOURS OF SUNSHINE TO BURN OFF
THE MORNING FOG...THEREFORE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM CDT. FOR AREAS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA THE SFC RIDGE HAS ALREADY MOVED OFF TO THE
EAST ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PICK UP INTO THE 10 TO 15 MPH
RANGE. THESE AREAS HAVE SEEN A STRATUS DECK DEVELOP AS OPPOSED TO
DENSE FOG...AND THIS STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE A BIT SLOW TO
BURN OFF THIS MORNING. ASSUMING THE STRATUS DOES MIX OUT AS
EXPECTED...EXPECT MOST AREAS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S FOR HIGHS
TODAY WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY THE AFTERNOON HRS.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BUT REMAIN NORTH OF THE RED RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. DO NOT
EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE...HOWEVER COULD SEE
SOME AFTERNOON MID TO HIGH LVL CLOUDS DEVELOP FOR AREAS NEAR THE
RED RIVER. OTHERWISE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS TODAY APPROACHING
THE GREAT PLAINS BY MONDAY. THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...KEEPING NORTH TX
UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE BULK OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
SOMEWHAT SHALLOW GULF MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO NORTH TX WITH
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW...POSSIBLY BRINGING A STRATUS/STRATA CU
DECK OVER THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE PLAINS SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTH TX MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE NAM IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS
FRONT...BUT DUE TO ITS RELATIVE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ON THE
TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...MAINTAINED THE SOMEWHAT FASTER GFS TIMING
WITH THIS FORECAST. WITH THE BULK OF THE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
RED RIVER DO NOT EXPECT MUCH COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY
ALONG THE COLD FRONT.  SOME ISOLATED OR SCATTERED ACTIVITY LOOKS
LIKELY AT THIS TIME...SO MAINTAINED THE 20-30 PERCENT POPS FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. DEPENDING ON THE QUALITY OF THE MOISTURE RETURN
ON MONDAY...WE COULD SEE SOME EMBEDDED TSTM ACTIVITY ALONG THE
FRONT AS WELL...BUT FOR NOW...MOISTURE RETURN LOOKS TOO MEAGER TO
PUT THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. BEHIND THE FRONT...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN MUCH DRIER LOW LVL AIRMASS PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
REGION...SO SHOULD SEE QUICK END TO PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
CLEARING SKIES FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED FORECAST...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY AT
THIS TIME. SOME NOTABLE FEATURES DURING THE PERIOD INCLUDE ANOTHER
STRONG PIECE OF ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH IN THE MERIDIONAL UPPER LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS.
WITH LOW LVL FLOW LOOKING TO REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH BETWEEN UPPER
LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...THIS SECOND WAVE WILL LIKELY ONLY SEND A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL...DRY AIR SOUTH THROUGH NORTH TX. WHILE
TECHNICALLY THIS MARKS A SECOND FRONTAL PASSAGE...DO NOT EXPECT
ANY IMPACTS ON LOCAL SENSIBLE WEATHER OUTSIDE OF LOWERING DEW
POINT VALUES BY SEVERAL DEGREES. OTHERWISE MODELS CONTINUE TO
OFFER VARYING SOLUTIONS ON LARGE SCALE FLOW HEADED INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...AND WITHOUT CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT KEPT THE WEEKEND DRY
FOR NOW. ECMWF OFFERS THE WETTEST SOLUTION...BRINGING A CUT OFF
LOW OVER NEW MEXICO...BUT AGAIN WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME CONSENSUS
BEFORE MENTIONING RAIN OR TSTMS IN THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE A
FAIRLY QUIET AND COOL FORECAST AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
TUESDAY.

CAVANAUGH


&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  67  50  70  51  65 /   0   0   5  20  10
WACO, TX              68  48  71  55  68 /   0   0   5  30  20
PARIS, TX             67  46  68  50  65 /   5   0   5  40  20
DENTON, TX            67  44  70  50  64 /   5   0  10  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          67  43  69  54  64 /   5   0   5  20  10
DALLAS, TX            67  51  70  53  65 /   0   0   5  20  10
TERRELL, TX           67  46  70  55  66 /   0   0   5  30  20
CORSICANA, TX         68  50  71  55  68 /   0   0   5  30  20
TEMPLE, TX            67  49  71  56  68 /   0   0   5  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ091>095-
100>107-116>123-130>135-143>148-156>162-174-175.


&&

$$

25/69

000
FXUS64 KCRP 221137
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
537 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF S TX THROUGH 14Z. LOWEST MORE PERSISTENT VSBYS ARE
GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 77 WITH ALI AND LRD EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIFR THROUGH 13-14Z. VSBY`S ARE MORE VARIABLE TO THE E OF HIGHWAY
77 WITH VCT PERIODICALLY DROPPING TO 1/4SM. CRP WIND SPEEDS ARE
CURRENTLY AROUND 5KT AND ARE KEEPING THE AIRMASS MIXED...THUS
KEEPING VSBY`S ABV 5SM FOR NOW. HOWEVER...AM EXPECTING THE VSBY TO
ALSO DROP AT CRP TO AROUND 2SM THROUGH 13Z. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS S TX BY AROUND 14Z. AREAS OF DENSE FOG
ARE EXPECTED TO DVLP ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/

DISCUSSION...LATEST IR SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE FG/LOW
STRATUS SPREADING ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN ZONES AND A MTR SITE IN
MCMULLEN COUNTY IS CURRENTLY REPORTING 1/4SM. THIS IN ADDITION TO THE
WET GROUND FROM PREVIOUS RAIN...AM EXPECTING DENSE FOG TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE
RESULTING IN PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS DVLPG ACROSS S TX THIS MORNING.
GIVEN THE LOW STRATUS INHIBITING RADIATIONAL COOLING IN SOME
LOCATIONS...ANY DENSE FOG THAT DVLPS SHOULD BE PATCHY. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE. OTHERWISE...A NICE DAY SHOULD BE ON TAP WITH PC SKIES AND
MILD TEMPS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESUME TODAY AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS E.
WITH THIS WILL COME INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPS.
WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS...DENSE FOG MAY BE MORE
LIKELY TONIGHT. FCSTD MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN EXCELLENT FOG
PROFILE BY MON MORNING. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD BEEN SHOWING PRECIP
ON MONDAY AS A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TRACKED ACROSS S TX AHD OF A
LONG WAVE TROF. HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL SOLNS ARE SHOWING A LACK OF
MOISTURE WITH VIRTUALLY NO UPPER SUPPORT NOR SUFFICIENT CAPE AND
LARGE CIN VALUES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH
MONDAY...BUT DON`T FEEL IT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT/MEASURABLE
PRECIP. HAVE LOWERED THE POPS TO 10 PERCENT ON MONDAY AND LEFT A
MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA`S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA MAINLY
DUE TO SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...BUT MAINLY AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER...HUMIDITY AND WARMER TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

MARINE...A WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME ONSHORE THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS A SFC HIGH MOVES E AND NE. A WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE
FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FNT WL CONTRIBUTE TO
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY NIGHT.  RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO PEAK ON TUE AS THE COLD FNT MOVES INTO THE CWA.  A WK S/WV ALOFT
AND A BUCKLING OF THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET TO OUR SOUTH WL FURTHER
AID IN THE DYNAMICAL FORCING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FNT. WITH DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE (PWS BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.9 INCHES) AND CAPES ABV
1500 J/KG...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WL EXIST.
LIMITED DEEP SHEAR WL LKLY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX.  WL GO
WITH GOOD CHC TO LKLY POPS FOR TUE.  PREFER THE FASTER GFS TIMING OF
THE FNT WHICH MOVES IT TWDS THE COAST BY EARLY TUE AFTN.  A RAPID
END TO THE PCPN/CLOUDS WL THEN OCCUR BEHIND THE FNT.  A DRY AND COOL
AIRMASS WL THEN BUILD INTO THE CWA THROUGH THURSDAY.  A GRADUAL
MODIFICATION TO THE AIRMASS WL BEGIN BY FRIDAY AS THE SFC RDG AXIS
BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EWD.  THIS SLOW WARMING TREND WL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    73  56  77  64  73  /   0  10  10  30  70
VICTORIA          71  50  76  59  66  /   0   0  10  30  60
LAREDO            77  60  80  65  74  /   0   0  10  30  50
ALICE             75  54  78  63  73  /   0  10  10  30  60
ROCKPORT          71  58  75  65  73  /   0   0  10  30  70
COTULLA           74  52  76  62  67  /   0   0  10  30  50
KINGSVILLE        74  54  78  63  75  /   0  10  10  30  70
NAVY CORPUS       72  59  74  67  74  /   0  10  10  30  70

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM
     WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...
     REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA...WEBB.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM
MB/80...LONG TERM

000
FXUS64 KLUB 221133
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
533 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.AVIATION...
CONTINUED VFR AT LBB WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT CDS BY MID TO
LATE MORNING. MOIST SSE WINDS HAVE MAINTAINED IFR CEILINGS AT CDS
ALL NIGHT...HOWEVER APPROACH OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT BY LATE MORNING WILL CAUSE THESE WINDS TO VEER SWLY
RESTORING VFR CONDITIONS. WINDOW FOR DENSE FOG AND LIFR CEILINGS
IS DIMINISHING...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS THIS MORNING
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE EXPECT FROPA AT LBB AROUND 17Z AND
A FEW HOURS LATER AT CDS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS
AT LBB IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/

SHORT TERM...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CAPTURED A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROF
MIGRATING OUT OF ERN NM AND THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO
THE CWA LATER THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...A NARROW
CONVEYOR OF MOIST AIR ADVECTION GENERATED A BAND OF STRATUS WITH
SOME FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS...HOWEVER APPROACH OF
THE FRONT AND MORE IMPORTANTLY A REMNANT LEE TROF WILL EVENTUALLY
ERODE THIS LAYER AS WINDS VEER WESTERLY. GIVEN THE SHALLOW NATURE
TO THE UPPER WAVE...THE MOST NOTICEABLE COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BE RELEGATED TO OUR NRN ZONES. HEIGHT FIELDS THEN FLATTEN
QUICKLY OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A MORE VIGOROUS TROF AND COLD
FRONT FOR MONDAY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS WILL BE VEERING FROM NLY
TO SLY OVERNIGHT...LOW TEMPS WERE TRIMMED AREA WIDE GIVEN THE
LIGHT NATURE TO THESE WINDS AND DRIER LOW LEVELS ESPECIALLY OFF
THE CAPROCK.

LONG TERM...
00Z RUNS OF THE MODEL ARE SHOWING A BIT SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME ISSUES WITH
MAX TEMPS. ALSO COMPOUNDING THE MAX TEMP FORECAST IS A WINDOW OF
WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR THE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY HELP
TO BUMP TEMPS UP QUITE A BIT MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. OPTED
TO GO AHEAD AND RAISE MAX TEMPS FOR MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...BUT HELD THE NORTHERN COUNTIES CLOSER TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
/MID 60S/. REGARDLESS...FRONT PUSHES THROUGH BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH
THE SFC RIDGE SETTLING IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN COLD MIN TEMPS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND HELP TO HOLD MAX
TEMPS DOWN AS WELL.

DIFFERENCES ARE CONTINUING TO CREEP INTO THE EXTENDED RANGE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST. ECMWF
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IN THE UPPER MIDWEST
FURTHER WEST THAN THE GFS WHICH KEEPS A SERIES OF WEEK COLD FRONT
PUSHING INTO THE REGION. GFS CARRIES THE COLDEST AIRMASSES EAST OF
THE REGION WITH ONLY GLANCING BLOWS. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
NEAR NORMAL HOWEVER WITH NO CHANCES FOR RAIN. COULD BE SOME BIGGER
CHANGES FOR THE END OF THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND /WHICH IS BEYOND
THE END OF THIS FORECAST/ BUT THE ECMWF/CMC/GFS ALL HAVE DIFFERENT
SCENARIOS PLAYING OUT...AS USUAL.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        60  23  62  24  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         63  25  65  27  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     65  28  67  31  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     66  29  71  28  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       68  32  72  31  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   69  31  73  29  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    69  33  74  27  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     65  37  69  37  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          70  35  73  37  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     71  37  73  37  60 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14/93

000
FXUS64 KEWX 221126
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
526 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.AVIATION...
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIFR-VLIFR CIGS AND VSBYS ACROSS S CENTRAL TX
THIS MORNING THAT WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 15-16Z BEFORE LIFTING
AND BURNING OFF TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
WILL BE VARIABLE THIS MORNING...BUT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
DETERIORATE AT SUNRISE AND A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE...BEFORE THE
HEATING WILL BURN OFF AND MIX OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. VFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...HOWEVER PATCHY FOG IS
LIKELY TO REDEVELOP AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/

DISCUSSION...
MOIST GROUNDS AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ENABLED RADIATIONAL FOG TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING SO HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
UNTIL 10 AM. VISIBILITIES WILL SUDDENLY BE REDUCED TO ONE QUARTER
OF A MILE OR LESS...SO BE SURE TO ALLOW EXTRA DRIVING TIME TO
REACH YOUR DESTINATION SAFELY. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE BY MID-MORNING ENABLING GOOD MIXING TO LIFT/DISSIPATE THE
FOG BY ABOUT 10 AM. SUNNY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING NEAR 70.

ANOTHER BATCH OF FOG IS EXPECTED EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WARM GULF
RETURN FLOW WILL ENABLE TEMPERATURES TO REACH A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
THAN TODAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE
DAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHING ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS WILL ENABLE A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP
INTO THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND PEAK
ON TUESDAY BEFORE DROPPING OUT OF THE PICTURE TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 DUE TO
DEEPER MOISTURE.

ONCE THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION...DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL
RESUME FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD BE
SUNNY AND MILD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 70. DRY AND SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH A GRADUAL MOISTENING TREND EXPECTED ONCE RETURN FLOW RESUMES
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              70  51  75  57  64 /   0   0  -   20  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  43  74  56  63 /   0   0  -   30  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     71  47  74  56  64 /   0   0  -   30  50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  48  70  52  63 /   0   0  -   20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           71  50  75  56  65 /   0   0  -   20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        69  48  73  54  63 /   0   0  -   20  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             72  45  74  60  63 /   0   0  -   30  50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        69  46  75  56  63 /   0   0  -   30  50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   70  50  75  58  66 /   0   0  -   30  50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       71  51  74  59  66 /   0   0  -   30  50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           71  50  74  60  65 /   0   0  -   30  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...
GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...
KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...
UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.

&&

$$

25/01

000
FXUS64 KAMA 221125 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
525 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE ONLY CONCERN WILL
BE THE WIND SHIFT EARLY THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. SINCE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EXITS QUICKLY TO THE EAST...WIND DIRECTION SHOULD MOVE CLOCKWISE
AROUND THE DIAL...SETTLING FROM THE SOUTH BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.

NUNEZ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/

DISCUSSION...
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST AS QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES FOR THE PANHANDLES. UPPER TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE
ROCKIES THIS MORNING WITH A SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN NM. SURFACE
OBS AT 09Z INDICATE A COLD FRONT SAGGING INTO SOUTHERN CO...WITH
THIS FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLES DURING THE MORNING.
AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG INDICATED OFF THE 11-3.9
SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS PUSHING INTO THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TX
PANHANDLE WHERE A SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW HAS TAPPED INTO THE HIGHER
DEWPOINT AIR IN NORTHERN TX. HAVE MENTIONED PATCHY FOG THROUGH
AROUND 13Z BEFORE DRIER AIR WILL HELP TO ERODE ANY LINGERING
FOG/CLOUD COVER. FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES BY NOON.
COLD ADVECTION ON NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN SATURDAY ALTHOUGH WITH SOME SUN SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. WEAK SURFACE ANTICYCLONE BUILDS INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT WHICH WILL
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER LOWS. LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
ROCKIES MONDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. FORECAST REMAINS DRY AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS SCARCE. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT
WILL ONLY SERVE TO KNOCK TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO BUT SHOULD STILL
SEE HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.

UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW AS IT HEADS INTO THE MID
MS VALLEY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL LEAVE THE PANHANDLES WITH A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WITH WARMING TEMPS IS
STILL ON TRACK THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ECMWF IS
INDICATING A PATTERN CHANGE IN THE DAY 8-10 TIME FRAME AS IT
INDICATES AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE
GFS LOOKS LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THIS SYSTEM ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS DO
BRING SOME QPF OVER THE AREA BY MONDAY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT IF THIS WERE TO VERIFY...THIS
MAY BE THE NEXT SHOT OF PRECIP FOR THE PANHANDLES. CLK

FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW AS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AND 20
FOOT WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY SEE
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL BETWEEN 15 AND 20 PERCENT...20
FOOT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH. A DRY AND MILD WEATHER PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. WHILE MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES MAY FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES...20 FOOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH. THUS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK
LOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/05

000
FXUS64 KFWD 221101
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
501 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS THE DENSE FOG
AROUND NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. MANY AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE
METROPLEX HAVE HAD VSBYS DROP TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS. UNCERTAIN
HOW MUCH FOG WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP IN THE METROPLEX EARLY THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER RECENT RAINFALL...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
PROVIDE IDEAL RADIATIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT THRU
SUNRISE. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE A FEW HOURS OF SUNSHINE TO BURN OFF
THE MORNING FOG...THEREFORE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM CDT. FOR AREAS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA THE SFC RIDGE HAS ALREADY MOVED OFF TO THE
EAST ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PICK UP INTO THE 10 TO 15 MPH
RANGE. THESE AREAS HAVE SEEN A STRATUS DECK DEVELOP AS OPPOSED TO
DENSE FOG...AND THIS STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE A BIT SLOW TO
BURN OFF THIS MORNING. ASSUMING THE STRATUS DOES MIX OUT AS
EXPECTED...EXPECT MOST AREAS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S FOR HIGHS
TODAY WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY THE AFTERNOON HRS.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BUT REMAIN NORTH OF THE RED RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. DO NOT
EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE...HOWEVER COULD SEE
SOME AFTERNOON MID TO HIGH LVL CLOUDS DEVELOP FOR AREAS NEAR THE
RED RIVER. OTHERWISE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS TODAY APPROACHING
THE GREAT PLAINS BY MONDAY. THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...KEEPING NORTH TX
UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE BULK OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
SOMEWHAT SHALLOW GULF MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO NORTH TX WITH
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW...POSSIBLY BRINGING A STRATUS/STRATA CU
DECK OVER THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE PLAINS SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTH TX MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE NAM IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS
FRONT...BUT DUE TO ITS RELATIVE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ON THE
TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...MAINTAINED THE SOMEWHAT FASTER GFS TIMING
WITH THIS FORECAST. WITH THE BULK OF THE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
RED RIVER DO NOT EXPECT MUCH COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY
ALONG THE COLD FRONT.  SOME ISOLATED OR SCATTERED ACTIVITY LOOKS
LIKELY AT THIS TIME...SO MAINTAINED THE 20-30 PERCENT POPS FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. DEPENDING ON THE QUALITY OF THE MOISTURE RETURN
ON MONDAY...WE COULD SEE SOME EMBEDDED TSTM ACTIVITY ALONG THE
FRONT AS WELL...BUT FOR NOW...MOISTURE RETURN LOOKS TOO MEAGER TO
PUT THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. BEHIND THE FRONT...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN MUCH DRIER LOW LVL AIRMASS PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
REGION...SO SHOULD SEE QUICK END TO PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
CLEARING SKIES FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED FORECAST...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY AT
THIS TIME. SOME NOTABLE FEATURES DURING THE PERIOD INCLUDE ANOTHER
STRONG PIECE OF ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH IN THE MERIDIONAL UPPER LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS.
WITH LOW LVL FLOW LOOKING TO REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH BETWEEN UPPER
LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...THIS SECOND WAVE WILL LIKELY ONLY SEND A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL...DRY AIR SOUTH THROUGH NORTH TX. WHILE
TECHNICALLY THIS MARKS A SECOND FRONTAL PASSAGE...DO NOT EXPECT
ANY IMPACTS ON LOCAL SENSIBLE WEATHER OUTSIDE OF LOWERING DEW
POINT VALUES BY SEVERAL DEGREES. OTHERWISE MODELS CONTINUE TO
OFFER VARYING SOLUTIONS ON LARGE SCALE FLOW HEADED INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...AND WITHOUT CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT KEPT THE WEEKEND DRY
FOR NOW. ECMWF OFFERS THE WETTEST SOLUTION...BRINGING A CUT OFF
LOW OVER NEW MEXICO...BUT AGAIN WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME CONSENSUS
BEFORE MENTIONING RAIN OR TSTMS IN THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE A
FAIRLY QUIET AND COOL FORECAST AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
TUESDAY.

CAVANAUGH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  67  50  70  51  65 /   0   0   5  20  10
WACO, TX              68  48  71  55  68 /   0   0   5  30  20
PARIS, TX             67  46  68  50  65 /   5   0   5  40  20
DENTON, TX            67  44  70  50  64 /   5   0  10  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          67  43  69  54  64 /   5   0   5  20  10
DALLAS, TX            67  51  70  53  65 /   0   0   5  20  10
TERRELL, TX           67  46  70  55  66 /   0   0   5  30  20
CORSICANA, TX         68  50  71  55  68 /   0   0   5  30  20
TEMPLE, TX            67  49  71  56  68 /   0   0   5  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ091>095-
100>107-116>123-130>135-143>148-156>162-174-175.


&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KEPZ 221051
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
349 AM MST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY AND MOSTLY MILD WEEK IS IN STORE FOR THE BORDERLAND INCLUDING
THANKSGIVING AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM
THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND COOL TEMPERATURES TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A SMALL UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TO
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO THURSDAY AND BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AND MOSTLY MILD. MODELS SHOW
SOME SUBTLE CHANGES BUT NOTHING OF GREAT SIGNIFICANCE. FAIRLY RAPID
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT MID
WEEK WITH SEVERAL TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
U.S...ONLY NOMINALLY EFFECTING OUR AREA. ONE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY
JUST ABOUT THROUGH OUR CWA...WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. A
SECOND...SOMEWHAT STRONGER...TROUGH IS JUST ENTERING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND WILL SWEEP ACROSS TO THE ROCKIES MONDAY MORNING. AS
THIS PASSES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER MONDAY IT WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT DOWN TO US...PASSING SOUTH OF OUR CWA BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE THEIR CONSISTENCY OF SHOWING VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO EXPECT LITTLE TO NO CLOUDS. COLD
ADVECTION SHOULD DROP TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

LATEST GFS IS SHOWING A BIT MORE INFLUENCE OF SUB TROPICAL FEATURE
MOVING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO ON THANKSGIVING. UPPER LOW MOVES OVER
BAJA EARLY THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
(ALBEIT MOSTLY HIGH) OVER US THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. STILL
DOESN`T LOOK LIKE MUCH CHANCE OF RAIN BUT WILL INCREASE CLOUDS SOME
IN THIS PERIOD.

GFS SHOWING A SIMILAR FEATURE MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA TOWARDS THE
END OF NEXT WEEKEND. AGAIN...SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A RAIN
MAKER...BUT FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS SHED OFF OF THIS LOW OVER US
ON THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 22/12Z-23/12Z...
VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER...LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S WILL BE ON TAP FOR TODAY AND MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE SATURDAY EVENING. A SECOND TROUGH PASSAGE
NORTH OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT.  THIS WILL TRIM TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES AND RAISE
HUMIDITIES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A SMALL UPPER LOW FORMS OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO ON THURSDAY...BRINGING SOME HIGHER CLOUDS TO THE
AREA ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITIES. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT SUNDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUD FREE...LOW
HUMIDITIES AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 69  41  70  39  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA TX        68  38  67  33  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              69  38  69  38  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              67  33  68  36  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              53  26  54  22  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   66  32  67  31  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             63  34  62  30  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  69  34  69  36  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               70  34  70  34  62 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17 HEFNER

000
FXUS64 KMAF 221047
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
447 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS TO
MID TWENTIES F ACROSS MOST OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO. SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE WESTERN
LOW ROLLING PLAINS...FAR EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND STOCKTON
PLATEAU. GIVEN THE INCREASED MOISTURE...CLEAR SKIES AND FAIRLY
LIGHT WINDS...WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP OVER THE ABOVE
MENTIONED AREAS THIS MORNING. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...WE HAVE
ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST THROUGH 15Z TODAY.
OTHERWISE...WE EXPECT SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS TODAY...WHICH
WILL AID IN WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. FOR
TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE WEST TEXAS PLAINS...AND SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS
ELSEWHERE. SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE STOCKTON PLATEAU AND EASTERN
PERMIAN BASIN ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...THUS
ALLOWING LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED MONDAY...AND
WITH THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE STRENGTHENING...WIDESPREAD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS THE
PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...
WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW NORMAL FOR TUESDAY. NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS COULD BE GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE SHORT RANGE
MODELS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREA OF 30KTS AT 850MB.
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON THURSDAY. SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARE OBSERVED AMONG
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS LATE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL UNTIL MODELS DEVELOP SOME SORT OF CONSENSUS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              74  42  75  35  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                70  31  75  31  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  72  43  76  44  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           75  44  80  39  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          68  39  71  33  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   69  33  73  31  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   71  27  71  25  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    74  38  75  33  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  71  39  73  34  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    78  31  79  33  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70/06

000
FXUS64 KLUB 221010
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
410 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SHORT TERM...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CAPTURED A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROF
MIGRATING OUT OF ERN NM AND THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO
THE CWA LATER THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...A NARROW
CONVEYOR OF MOIST AIR ADVECTION GENERATED A BAND OF STRATUS WITH
SOME FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS...HOWEVER APPROACH OF
THE FRONT AND MORE IMPORTANTLY A REMNANT LEE TROF WILL EVENTUALLY
ERODE THIS LAYER AS WINDS VEER WESTERLY. GIVEN THE SHALLOW NATURE
TO THE UPPER WAVE...THE MOST NOTICEABLE COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BE RELEGATED TO OUR NRN ZONES. HEIGHT FIELDS THEN FLATTEN
QUICKLY OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A MORE VIGOROUS TROF AND COLD
FRONT FOR MONDAY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS WILL BE VEERING FROM NLY
TO SLY OVERNIGHT...LOW TEMPS WERE TRIMMED AREA WIDE GIVEN THE
LIGHT NATURE TO THESE WINDS AND DRIER LOW LEVELS ESPECIALLY OFF
THE CAPROCK.

&&

.LONG TERM...
00Z RUNS OF THE MODEL ARE SHOWING A BIT SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME ISSUES WITH
MAX TEMPS. ALSO COMPOUNDING THE MAX TEMP FORECAST IS A WINDOW OF
WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR THE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY HELP
TO BUMP TEMPS UP QUITE A BIT MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. OPTED
TO GO AHEAD AND RAISE MAX TEMPS FOR MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...BUT HELD THE NORTHERN COUNTIES CLOSER TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
/MID 60S/. REGARDLESS...FRONT PUSHES THROUGH BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH
THE SFC RIDGE SETTLING IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN COLD MIN TEMPS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND HELP TO HOLD MAX
TEMPS DOWN AS WELL.

DIFFERENCES ARE CONTINUING TO CREEP INTO THE EXTENDED RANGE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST. ECMWF
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IN THE UPPER MIDWEST
FURTHER WEST THAN THE GFS WHICH KEEPS A SERIES OF WEEK COLD FRONT
PUSHING INTO THE REGION. GFS CARRIES THE COLDEST AIRMASSES EAST OF
THE REGION WITH ONLY GLANCING BLOWS. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
NEAR NORMAL HOWEVER WITH NO CHANCES FOR RAIN. COULD BE SOME BIGGER
CHANGES FOR THE END OF THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND /WHICH IS BEYOND
THE END OF THIS FORECAST/ BUT THE ECMWF/CMC/GFS ALL HAVE DIFFERENT
SCENARIOS PLAYING OUT...AS USUAL.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        60  23  62  24  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         63  25  65  27  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     65  28  67  31  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     66  29  71  28  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       68  32  72  31  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   69  31  73  29  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    69  33  74  27  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     65  37  69  37  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          70  35  73  37  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     71  37  73  37  60 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14

000
FXUS64 KEWX 220957
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
357 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...
MOIST GROUNDS AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ENABLED RADIATIONAL FOG TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING SO HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
UNTIL 10 AM. VISIBILITIES WILL SUDDENLY BE REDUCED TO ONE QUARTER
OF A MILE OR LESS...SO BE SURE TO ALLOW EXTRA DRIVING TIME TO
REACH YOUR DESTINATION SAFELY. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE BY MID-MORNING ENABLING GOOD MIXING TO LIFT/DISSIPATE THE
FOG BY ABOUT 10 AM. SUNNY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING NEAR 70.

ANOTHER BATCH OF FOG IS EXPECTED EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WARM GULF
RETURN FLOW WILL ENABLE TEMPERATURES TO REACH A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
THAN TODAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE
DAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHING ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS WILL ENABLE A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP
INTO THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND PEAK
ON TUESDAY BEFORE DROPPING OUT OF THE PICTURE TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 DUE TO
DEEPER MOISTURE.

ONCE THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION...DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL
RESUME FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD BE
SUNNY AND MILD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 70. DRY AND SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH A GRADUAL MOISTENING TREND EXPECTED ONCE RETURN FLOW RESUMES
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              70  51  75  57  64 /   0   0  -   20  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  43  74  56  63 /   0   0  -   30  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     71  47  74  56  64 /   0   0  -   30  50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  48  70  52  63 /   0   0  -   20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           71  50  75  56  65 /   0   0  -   20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        69  48  73  54  63 /   0   0  -   20  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             72  45  74  60  63 /   0   0  -   30  50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        69  46  75  56  63 /   0   0  -   30  50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   70  50  75  58  66 /   0   0  -   30  50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       71  51  74  59  66 /   0   0  -   30  50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           71  50  74  60  65 /   0   0  -   30  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...
GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...
KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...
UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.

&&

$$

25/01

000
FXUS64 KSJT 220955
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
355 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SHORT TERM...
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG OCCURRING EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR COUNTIES...WHERE THE HIGHER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RESIDES. EXPECT THESE TO DISSIPATE
AROUND MID MORNING WITH A MAINLY SUNNY SKY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
PER THE 850 MB THERMAL PATTERN...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THE 00Z GFS AND NAM20 ARE NOT AS AGRESSIVE WITH THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE INCREASE/LOW CLOUD RETURN EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS
YESTERDAY/S GFS. STILL EXPECT LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT/ADVECTION INTO
AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN THIRD WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. BASED ON TRENDS IN
RECENT DAYS...GOING WITH OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW OR
NEAR THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM...
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AREAWIDE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ADVANCING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE MON NIGHT/EARLY
TUE. THE GFS/NAM VERY SIMILAR WITH THE FRONT WHICH CLEARS THE
SOUTHERN CWFA AROUND 12Z TUE. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE HEARTLAND AND NW HILL COUNTRY
LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING AS BOTH THE GFS AND NAM INDICATE
SOME LIGHT QPF DEVELOPING BUT ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT
AS MOISTURE WILL BE VERY SHALLOW. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER
BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 60S. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TUE NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO NEAR
FREEZING MOST AREAS. THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG
SHORT WAVE DIVING SE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WED WHICH CARVES
OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THU AND FRI WITH STRONG
RIDGING OVER THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  69  42  74  43  62 /   0   0   0  10  10
SAN ANGELO  72  41  75  43  61 /   0   0   0  10  10
JUNCTION  71  41  73  49  63 /   0   0   0  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19/24

000
FXUS64 KAMA 220950
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
350 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST AS QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES FOR THE PANHANDLES. UPPER TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE
ROCKIES THIS MORNING WITH A SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN NM. SURFACE
OBS AT 09Z INDICATE A COLD FRONT SAGGING INTO SOUTHERN CO...WITH
THIS FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLES DURING THE MORNING.
AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG INDICATED OFF THE 11-3.9
SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS PUSHING INTO THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TX
PANHANDLE WHERE A SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW HAS TAPPED INTO THE HIGHER
DEWPOINT AIR IN NORTHERN TX. HAVE MENTIONED PATCHY FOG THROUGH
AROUND 13Z BEFORE DRIER AIR WILL HELP TO ERODE ANY LINGERING
FOG/CLOUD COVER. FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES BY NOON.
COLD ADVECTION ON NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN SATURDAY ALTHOUGH WITH SOME SUN SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. WEAK SURFACE ANTICYCLONE BUILDS INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT WHICH WILL
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER LOWS. LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
ROCKIES MONDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. FORECAST REMAINS DRY AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS SCARCE. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT
WILL ONLY SERVE TO KNOCK TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO BUT SHOULD STILL
SEE HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.

UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW AS IT HEADS INTO THE MID
MS VALLEY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL LEAVE THE PANHANDLES WITH A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WITH WARMING TEMPS IS
STILL ON TRACK THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ECMWF IS
INDICATING A PATTERN CHANGE IN THE DAY 8-10 TIME FRAME AS IT
INDICATES AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE
GFS LOOKS LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THIS SYSTEM ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS DO
BRING SOME QPF OVER THE AREA BY MONDAY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT IF THIS WERE TO VERIFY...THIS
MAY BE THE NEXT SHOT OF PRECIP FOR THE PANHANDLES. CLK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW AS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AND 20
FOOT WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY SEE
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL BETWEEN 15 AND 20 PERCENT...20
FOOT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH. A DRY AND MILD WEATHER PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. WHILE MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES MAY FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES...20 FOOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH. THUS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK
LOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CLK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                60  28  59  29  54 /   0   0   5   5   5
BEAVER OK                  54  27  55  26  50 /   0   0   5   5   5
BOISE CITY OK              57  26  52  23  51 /   0   0   5   5   5
BORGER TX                  60  32  58  32  55 /   0   0   5   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              62  24  59  23  53 /   0   0   5   5   5
CANYON TX                  62  21  61  26  54 /   0   0   5   5   5
CLARENDON TX               61  35  63  34  56 /   0   0   5   5   5
DALHART TX                 59  22  53  22  52 /   0   0   5   5   5
GUYMON OK                  59  23  55  27  54 /   0   0   5   5   5
HEREFORD TX                61  20  63  24  55 /   0   0   5   5   5
LIPSCOMB TX                57  29  57  27  52 /   0   0   5   5   5
PAMPA TX                   58  36  58  33  54 /   0   0   5   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                59  36  63  36  56 /   0   0   5   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              61  36  63  37  58 /   0   0   0   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/05

000
FXUS64 KCRP 220923
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
323 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...LATEST IR SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE FG/LOW
STRATUS SPREADING ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN ZONES AND A MTR SITE IN
MCMULLEN COUNTY IS CURRENTLY REPORTING 1/4SM. THIS IN ADDITION TO THE
WET GROUND FROM PREVIOUS RAIN...AM EXPECTING DENSE FOG TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE
RESULTING IN PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS DVLPG ACROSS S TX THIS MORNING.
GIVEN THE LOW STRATUS INHIBITING RADIATIONAL COOLING IN SOME
LOCATIONS...ANY DENSE FOG THAT DVLPS SHOULD BE PATCHY. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE. OTHERWISE...A NICE DAY SHOULD BE ON TAP WITH PC SKIES AND
MILD TEMPS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESUME TODAY AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS E.
WITH THIS WILL COME INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPS.
WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS...DENSE FOG MAY BE MORE
LIKELY TONIGHT. FCSTD MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN EXCELLENT FOG
PROFILE BY MON MORNING. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD BEEN SHOWING PRECIP
ON MONDAY AS A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TRACKED ACROSS S TX AHD OF A
LONG WAVE TROF. HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL SOLNS ARE SHOWING A LACK OF
MOISTURE WITH VIRTUALLY NO UPPER SUPPORT NOR SUFFICIENT CAPE AND
LARGE CIN VALUES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH
MONDAY...BUT DON`T FEEL IT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT/MEASURABLE
PRECIP. HAVE LOWERED THE POPS TO 10 PERCENT ON MONDAY AND LEFT A
MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA`S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA MAINLY
DUE TO SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...BUT MAINLY AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER...HUMIDITY AND WARMER TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

MARINE...A WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME ONSHORE THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS A SFC HIGH MOVES E AND NE. A WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE
FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FNT WL CONTRIBUTE TO
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY NIGHT.  RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO PEAK ON TUE AS THE COLD FNT MOVES INTO THE CWA.  A WK S/WV ALOFT
AND A BUCKLING OF THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET TO OUR SOUTH WL FURTHER
AID IN THE DYNAMICAL FORCING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FNT. WITH DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE (PWS BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.9 INCHES) AND CAPES ABV
1500 J/KG...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WL EXIST.
LIMITED DEEP SHEAR WL LKLY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX.  WL GO
WITH GOOD CHC TO LKLY POPS FOR TUE.  PREFER THE FASTER GFS TIMING OF
THE FNT WHICH MOVES IT TWDS THE COAST BY EARLY TUE AFTN.  A RAPID
END TO THE PCPN/CLOUDS WL THEN OCCUR BEHIND THE FNT.  A DRY AND COOL
AIRMASS WL THEN BUILD INTO THE CWA THROUGH THURSDAY.  A GRADUAL
MODIFICATION TO THE AIRMASS WL BEGIN BY FRIDAY AS THE SFC RDG AXIS
BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EWD.  THIS SLOW WARMING TREND WL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    73  56  77  64  73  /   0  10  10  30  70
VICTORIA          71  50  76  59  66  /   0   0  10  30  60
LAREDO            77  60  80  65  74  /   0   0  10  30  50
ALICE             75  54  78  63  73  /   0  10  10  30  60
ROCKPORT          71  58  75  65  73  /   0   0  10  30  70
COTULLA           74  52  76  62  67  /   0   0  10  30  50
KINGSVILLE        74  54  78  63  75  /   0  10  10  30  70
NAVY CORPUS       72  59  74  67  74  /   0  10  10  30  70

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM
     WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...
     REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA...WEBB.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM
MB/80...LONG TERM

000
FXUS64 KHGX 220919
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
319 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING AND
THEN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. WE`LL SEE WARMER DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH THE HIGH MOVING EAST OF
THE AREA ON MONDAY...MOISTURE LEVELS BEGIN TO RISE AS WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL
AND PASSAGE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE ONSHORE FLOW REMAINS ON THE
WEAK SIDE AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY...SO WILL STICK WITH CHANCE POPS LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
CONTROL OF THE AREA WITH A DRY AIRMASS AND COOL TEMPERATURES. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ON THANKSGIVING WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS
IN THE 60S. NEXT WEEKEND...AN ONSHORE FLOW COMES BACK TO THE AREA AS
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMING TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED.  42
&&

.MARINE...
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WINDS AND SEAS HAVE WEAKENED TO BELOW SCEC.
QUIET PATTERN TODAY UNDER LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW SEAS. EASTERN
HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THIS RECENT LOW WILL AID IN
TURNING THESE BREEZES AROUND TO ONSHORE EARLY MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT IS TIMED TO CROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT THAT WILL INITIATE
SCA FLAGS GOING INTO...AND THROUGH...WEDNESDAY. 31
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      70  48  75  56  68 /   0   0  10  30  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              70  48  76  61  72 /   0   0  10  30  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            66  55  73  64  73 /   0   0  10  30  40
&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31

000
FXUS64 KCRP 220910
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
310 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE
RESULTING IN PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS DVLPG ACROSS S TX THIS MORNING.
GIVEN THE LOW STRATUS INHIBITING RADIATIONAL COOLING IN SOME
LOCATIONS...ANY DENSE FOG THAT DVLPS SHOULD BE PATCHY. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE. OTHERWISE...A NICE DAY SHOULD BE ON TAP WITH PC SKIES AND
MILD TEMPS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESUME TODAY AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS E.
WITH THIS WILL COME INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPS.
WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS...DENSE FOG MAY BE MORE
LIKELY TONIGHT. FCSTD MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN EXCELLENT FOG
PROFILE BY MON MORNING. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD BEEN SHOWING PRECIP
ON MONDAY AS A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TRACKED ACROSS S TX AHD OF A
LONG WAVE TROF. HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL SOLNS ARE SHOWING A LACK OF
MOISTURE WITH VIRTUALLY NO UPPER SUPPORT NOR SUFFICIENT CAPE AND
LARGE CIN VALUES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH
MONDAY...BUT DON`T FEEL IT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT/MEASURABLE
PRECIP. HAVE LOWERED THE POPS TO 10 PERCENT ON MONDAY AND LEFT A
MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA`S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA MAINLY
DUE TO SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...BUT MAINLY AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER...HUMIDITY AND WARMER TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME ONSHORE THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS A SFC HIGH MOVES E AND NE. A WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE
FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FNT WL CONTRIBUTE TO
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY NIGHT.  RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO PEAK ON TUE AS THE COLD FNT MOVES INTO THE CWA.  A WK S/WV ALOFT
AND A BUCKLING OF THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET TO OUR SOUTH WL FURTHER
AID IN THE DYNAMICAL FORCING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FNT. WITH DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE (PWS BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.9 INCHES) AND CAPES ABV
1500 J/KG...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WL EXIST.
LIMITED DEEP SHEAR WL LKLY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX.  WL GO
WITH GOOD CHC TO LKLY POPS FOR TUE.  PREFER THE FASTER GFS TIMING OF
THE FNT WHICH MOVES IT TWDS THE COAST BY EARLY TUE AFTN.  A RAPID
END TO THE PCPN/CLOUDS WL THEN OCCUR BEHIND THE FNT.  A DRY AND COOL
AIRMASS WL THEN BUILD INTO THE CWA THROUGH THURSDAY.  A GRADUAL
MODIFICATION TO THE AIRMASS WL BEGIN BY FRIDAY AS THE SFC RDG AXIS
BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EWD.  THIS SLOW WARMING TREND WL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    73  56  77  64  73  /   0  10  10  30  70
VICTORIA          71  50  76  59  66  /   0   0  10  30  60
LAREDO            77  60  80  65  74  /   0   0  10  30  50
ALICE             75  54  78  63  73  /   0  10  10  30  60
ROCKPORT          71  58  75  65  73  /   0   0  10  30  70
COTULLA           74  52  76  62  67  /   0   0  10  30  50
KINGSVILLE        74  54  78  63  75  /   0  10  10  30  70
NAVY CORPUS       72  59  74  67  74  /   0  10  10  30  70

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM
MB/80...LONG TERM

000
FXUS64 KBRO 220838
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
240 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...DENSE FOG COVERS MOST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS
MORNING AS LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE ARE IN PLACE.
SKIES WILL CLEAR SOON AFTER SUNRISE...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO
THE UPPER 70S. THE UPPER TROF THAT USHERED IN OUR COOLER AIRMASS HAS
MOVED TO LA/MS NOW. ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTH THRU
THE GREAT PLAINS MONDAY...THEN HEADING EAST TO THE OH VLY
TUESDAY...PULLING ANOTHER CF THRU OUR REGION. CONVECTION/ISOLD TSTMS
SHUD ACCOMPANY THE FROPA ACROSS OUR REGION DURING TUESDAY. PRIMARY
FORCING FOR ASCENT AND DEEP LAYER FLOW PASSES N OF OUR REGION...WITH
WARM LAYER NEAR H85...SHOULD REDUCE THE THREAT FOR SVR TSTMS DURING
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH AREAS JUST NORTHEAST MAY EXPERIENCE SVR TSTM
DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...SEAS WERE NEAR 5 FEET WITH NORTH WINDS AT 6 KNOTS AT
BUOY020 EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER TX COAST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE A
COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THE LOWER TX COAST TUES AFTERNOON. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TUES NIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NORTH AND INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. STRONG NORTH WINDS
WILL PREVAIL TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD TO
NEAR 10 FEET OFFSHORE. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH WED
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO BEGINS TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY.
&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
AREAS OF FOG ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. CEILINGS WERE NEAR 100FT AT
KBRO TO NEAR 1100FT AT KHRL. VISIBILITIES WERE NEAR 1/4SM WITH FOG
AT KHRL TO NEAR 3/4SM WITH FOG AT KBRO. LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING AS FOG CONTINUES TO REDUCE CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA.
CALM WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM THE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TX. EXPECT MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
ALLOWING FOG TO DEVELOP.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  76  65  80  70 /   0   0   0  30
BROWNSVILLE          79  63  82  69 /   0   0   0  30
HARLINGEN            78  62  81  66 /   0   0   0  30
MCALLEN              79  62  81  65 /   0   0   0  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      78  59  79  63 /   0   0   0  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   75  64  79  69 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ248>257.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

58/61

000
FXUS64 KEWX 220544
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1144 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREA OF MVFR CIGS OVER AUS WILL ERODE QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS, BUT AN ADJACENT AREA OF IFR/LIFR CIGS ARE EXPANDING OVER
THE HILL COUNTRY INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THIS LAYER OF CLOUDS
IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND OVER ALL OF THE AREA TERMINALS BY AROUND 10Z
WITH SPOTTY VLIFR CONDITIONS FROM DENSE FOG EXPECTED TO BE
ESPECIALLY PRESENT ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AROUND DAYBREAK. THE
SHALLOW MOIST LAYER SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AFTER 16Z. 00Z MODELS ARE SHOWING SUFFICIENT DRYING TO PRECLUDE
FOG FORMATION AT AUS/SAT AFTER 06Z SUNDAY, BUT THIS APPEARS
UNLIKELY WITH THE LIGHT WIND/MINIMAL CLOUD FORECAST AND ALL THE
GROUND MOISTURE IN PLACE; MORE LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 824 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE 1ST PERIOD MIN TEMPS BY 1-6 DEGREES
DUE TO LOW STRATUS DECK EXPANDING WEST ACROSS OUR CWFA...WHICH
WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE IN
SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK.

NEW SUITE OF PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WHICH GAVE US FRIDAY`S BENEFICIAL RAINFALL
WILL FINALLY EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING RESULTING IN CLEARING
SKIES ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA. THERE IS AMPLE GROUND MOISTURE FROM
THE RAINS AND WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT..
EXPECT PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT OVER ALL BUT FAR NORTH..
NORTHWEST AND FAR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE SHALLOW FOG
CONDITION SHOULD MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING AND WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW RETURNING TO VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE REGION BY MIDDAY..SHOULD
HAVE A MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
AROUND 70. ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY MORNING FOG MONDAY..THEN A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS WILL CONTINUE
ADVECTING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY..PRODUCING A FEW
SHOWERS BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS. THE
SOUTHERN PART OF A RAPID MOVING UPPER AIR TROUGH WITH ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. CLEARING AND COLDER TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
30S HILL COUNTRY..40S ELSEWHERE. MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COOL WEDNESDAY.
A MAMMOTH RIDGE-TROUGH COUPLET DOMINATING THE ENTIRE U.S. ON
THANKSGIVING WILL ANCHOR A DRY SURFACE RIDGE OVER SOUTH TEXAS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BUT A CHILLY THANKSGIVING
MORNING AND A MILD TO COOL AFTERNOON. THIS ANCHORED DRY RIDGE
PATTERN WILL KEEP THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND MOISTURE LATE NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              51  71  50  73  57 /   0  -   -   -   30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  48  69  44  74  56 /   0  -   -   -   30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     49  71  47  73  58 /   0  -   -   -   30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            50  69  52  70  48 /   0  -   -   -   20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           46  72  51  73  55 /   0   0   0  -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        49  68  50  71  55 /   0  -   -   -   20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             49  72  48  72  58 /   0   0  -   -   30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        50  69  48  74  57 /   0  -   -   -   30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   49  69  48  75  58 /  -   -   -   10  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       50  71  50  74  59 /   0  -   -   -   30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           51  71  49  73  61 /   0   0  -   -   30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

11/18

000
FXUS64 KMAF 220542
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1142 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS ARE FORECAST
TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL AREA TERMINALS THROUGH 23/06Z.  VARIABLE WINDS
UNDER 7 KTS WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE LEE SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES.
SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS OVER 11 KTS...WITH GUSTS OVER 16 KTS...
ARE EXPECTED AT KMAF BY MID MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL THEN
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/

DISCUSSION...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND PASS THROUGH
THE AREA BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH VERY LOW MOISTURE IN THE
LOWER TO MID LEVELS...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL NOT PRODUCE ANY
PRECIPITATION.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS THROUGH SUNDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO
VISION ARE FORECAST FOR THE REGION. SKIES WILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR TO
SCATTERED WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. NO CEILINGS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION FACTOR
SUNDAY WITH MID LEVEL WINDS WILL MIXING DOWN AFTER SUNRISE BRINGING
GENERALLY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 10 MPH TO THE REGION.
WIND GUSTS TO 18 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AT KHOB AND TO 20 MPH AT KMAF
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY. ELSEWHERE...
WIND GUSTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70

000
FXUS64 KCRP 220540
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1140 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ANTICIPATED
FOR THE 08-15Z SUNDAY PERIOD...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN STATE ROAD 16
AND US 77. AFTERWARD...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. GENERALLY WEAK WIND
DRG THE PERIOD...WITH DIRECTION BECOMING EAST/SOUTHEAST AREAWIDE
AFTER 20Z SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/

DISCUSSION...BASED ON WATER VAPOR/STREAMLINE DATA AND
DETERMINISTIC SOLNS EXPECT AN ATMOSPHERE OVERNIGHT CHARACTERIZED
BY WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND DRY EXCEPT FOR NEAR SURFACE MSTR. THE GFS
PROGS A THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE OVER THE INTERIOR COASTAL
BEND/VICTORIA CROSSROADS CONSISTENT WITH AREAS OF FOG (WHEN
COMBINED WITH LIGHT WIND EXPECTED DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE). HWR...DUE TO RECENT RAIN OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES
(ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI)...ALSO ANTICIPATE AREAS OF
FOG NEAR THE COAST/OVER THE BAY WATERS. ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER BASED IN PART ON RECENT DEW POINTS. SEAS/WIND
EXPECT TO REMAIN BELOW SCEC/SCA CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHEAST CORNER WHERE MVFR CIGS REMAIN IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTING TO THE EAST. FOR PORTIONS
OF THE COASTAL PLAINS WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR ALONG AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM TILDEN TO FREER, MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF
LIFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY AFTER 05Z. OVER THE NORTHEAST WHERE
MVFR CIGS LINGER THIS EVENING, CLOUD BASES WILL SLOWLY LOWER
OVERNIGHT TO LIFR/IFR WITH LIFR/IFR VSBYS DEVELOPING THERE AS
WELL. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE ENTIRE AREA BY ROUGHLY 17Z
SUNDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...CLOUDS OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST ARE FINALLY STARTING TO ERODE...AND GENERALLY EXPECT
THESE TO CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT BUT WILL MONITOR AND MAKE ANY
LAST MINUTE CHANGES IF NEEDED. MAIN ISSUE THE NEXT TWO DAYS WILL
BE FOG. WITH MUCH DRIER AIR LIGHT WINDS AND VERY WET GROUNDS...FOG
WILL LIKELY OCCUR. WHETHER IT BE SUFFICIENTLY DENSE OVER A LARGE
AREA IS THE MAIN QUESTION...AND FOR NOW WILL NOT ISSUE ANY DENSE
FOG ADVISORY YET AS NOT TOTALLY CONFIDENT IN AREAL COVERAGE...
ALTHOUGH KALI AND KVCT WILL BE PRIME SUSPECTS...THE LATTER AS LONG
AS THE CLOUDS DO NOT LINGER. HAVE MENTIONED AREAS OF FOG WITH
PATCHY DENSE FOG FOR NOW...AFTERNOON SHIFT CAN ADJUST AS NEEDED.
ONCE THE FOG CLEARS...SHOULD SEE MAINLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MOST OF
THE DAY...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING SLIGHTLY FROM THE SOUTH DURING
THE AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. LIGHT WINDS AND WEAK MOISTURE
ADVECTION (AGAIN WITH WET GROUNDS AND LIGHT WINDS) SHOULD BRING
FOG BACK AGAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT ON THE LOW
SIDE OR BELOW GUIDANCE BY A DEGREE OR TWO...ESPECIALLY OUT WEST
WHERE DRIER AIR RESIDES. HIGHS FOR SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE
70S...WITH PERHAPS 80F IN LAREDO. ABOUT A 5 TO 7 DEGREE WARM UP
MOST LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...AS MOISTURE AND
ONSHORE FLOW RETURN.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...AREAS OF FOG WILL START THE
PERIOD MONDAY IN A WEAK WARM ADVECTION SCENARIO AND MAYBE SLOW TO
CLEAR DUE TO LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. POTENT TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DRAW MOISTURE AND CLOUD NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY AFTN AND NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. EXPECT
A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AS INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE INCREASES WITH A CHANCE OF POPS MON NGT AND TUE AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LIGHT WINDS...SATURDATED SOILS AND WEAK
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD LEAD TO FOG REDEVELOPING
AGAIN MON NGT-TUE AM.  FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH
AROUND MIDDAY TUE. DYNAMICS ARE PROGGED TO BE WEAK AND H85 WINDS
WESTERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THUS WILL UNDER CUT THE GFS MOS POPS
AND INDICATE ONLY 40-50%.  CONVECTION MAY BE MORE PRONOUNCED OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AND TO OUR SOUTH AS GFS/ECMWF HINT AT SOME JET
DYNAMICS/DIFLUENCE ALOFT IN THOSE AREAS. PCPN WILL END FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TUE NGT AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW GULF...WITH A STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO SOUTH TEXAS. THE GFS KEEPS US DRY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOUTHERN JET.
KEPT THE DRY SCENARIO FOR NOW...BUT FUTURE SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO
CONSIDER ADDING POPS.

MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE...THEN BECOME ONSHORE LATE SUNDAY WITH A WEAK
TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 3
FEET BY SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    51  73  56  76  63  /   0   0  10  20  30
VICTORIA          48  71  50  76  60  /   0   0   0  10  30
LAREDO            53  80  57  78  62  /   0   0   0  20  30
ALICE             49  76  54  77  61  /   0   0  10  20  30
ROCKPORT          54  71  58  75  64  /   0   0   0  20  30
COTULLA           48  74  52  76  60  /   0   0   0  20  30
KINGSVILLE        49  75  54  77  62  /   0   0  10  20  30
NAVY CORPUS       55  72  59  74  64  /   0   0  10  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM

000
FXUS64 KSJT 220537
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1137 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009


.DISCUSSION...
/SEE BELOW FOR 6Z AVIATION DISCUSSION/

&&

.AVIATION...
BAND OF STRATUS WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES HAD MOVED
BACK INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. IT HAS PUSHED WEST...ALONG A
CHILDRESS...SWEETWATER... SAN ANGELO... JUNCTION LINE AT 11 PM.

WILL CONTINUE IFR CIGS TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL CLEAR SKIES WILL
PROMOTE FOG...DOWN INTO IFR AT TIMES. SO EXPECT HIGHLY VARIABLE
CIGS AND VISIBILITIES...ESPECIALLY AT KSJT AND KJCT ON WESTERN
EDGE OF THE CLOUDS. KABI MAY BE FIRST TO BECOME VFR IN THE
MORNING...AS DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH IN THE PANHANDLE MIXES IN
DRIER SW AIR.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 941 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/

DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO EXPAND WESTWARD THIS EVENING FROM CENTRAL
TEXAS. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER GRIDS IN
RESPONSE TO THIS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS...AND MODELS INDICATE A GENERAL DECREASE IN BOTH SFC
DEW POINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY BETWEEN THE SFC AND 850MB DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE NOT MADE ANY LARGE
ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS...SINCE THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO GET INTO THE 40S IN
MOST AREAS...IF NOT THE UPPER 30S AS THEY ALREADY HAVE IN SONORA.
UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/

DISCUSSION...
/SEE BELOW FOR O0Z TAF DISCUSSION/

AVIATION...
WHILE SKIES WERE CLEAR IN WC TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...THE NAM AND
RUC MODELS INDICATE LIGHT EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS RETURNING. WITH
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...EXPECT IFR STRATUS ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF TEXAS TO ADVECT BACK WEST ACROSS TAF SITES 6-9Z TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/

SHORT TERM...
THERE ARE NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO HANG AROUND
UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES EARLY TUESDAY...AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
LEAD TO THE REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CIGS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDINESS...OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO STAY NEAR OR ABOVE 40 IN MOST AREAS. USING THE UPS
FOG TOOL IN BUFKIT...IT DOES INDICATE THAT STRATUS IS FAVORED OVER
DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT AS SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE THE
CROSSOVER TEMPS. HOWEVER...I WILL INSERT SOME AREAS OF LIGHT FOG
GIVEN THE FAIRLY HIGH SURFACE RH FORECAST FROM THE NAM.

AFTER THE LOW CIGS SCATTER OUT ON SUNDAY...A NICE MILD DAY IS IN
STORE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.

LACY

LONG TERM...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION MIDWEEK. THE MAIN IMPACT ON
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE NAM IS A LITTLE
SLOWER WITH FROPA THAN THE GFS BUT BOTH MODELS HAVE THE FRONT AT
THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS THE BEST LIFT WILL BE NORTH AND
EAST OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BUT HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HILL
COUNTRY...WHERE SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE IS LOCATED.

FOR MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT A DRY FORECAST AND PLEASANT
CONDITIONS. CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR BOTH TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE
WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING AND BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING. WITH UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK...THIS WILL KEEP WEST CENTRAL TEXAS UNDER DRY AND
COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES BEING ON
THE COOL SIDE INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S.

FOR NEXT WEEKEND THE MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY WITH THE ECMWF HAS AN
UPPER LEVEL OW MOVING INTO NORTHERN MEXICO WITH GFS HAS WEAK RIDGING
IN PLACE OVER TEXAS...SO HAVE NOT STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  62  46  67  47  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN ANGELO  69  40  70  46  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
JUNCTION  68  39  69  44  74 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/04

000
FXUS64 KHGX 220529
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1129 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TXEAS EXCEPT ALONG THE
COAST. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED TO NEAR THE DEW POINT. WINDS ARE
LIGHT AND THE GROUND IS WET...SO AREAS OF FOG STILL SEEM
REASONABLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW FOG/LOW CLOUDS ERODING AROUND
15Z AND SKIES BECOMING CLEAR BETWEEN 15-16Z. DON`T SEE MUCH CHANGE
IN CONDITIONS BETWEEN 15Z AND 06Z SO HAVE NOT ADDED AN ADDITIONAL
LINE TO THE TAF PACKAGE. 43


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 847 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/

UPDATE...
EVENING FORECAST UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE TIMING OF WHEN CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
ACROSS SE TX. RIGHT NOW THERE IS SOME CLEARING OVER KCLL...KUTS
AND KCXO. THE SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWING CLEARING FROM N TO S
TONIGHT WITH FOG DEVELOPING WHERE SKIES CLEAR OUT OR GO PARTLY
CLOUDY. MIN TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY AS WELL BUT WILL STICK WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST AS TEMPS COULD DROP INTO THE MID 40S AS CLOUDS
CLEAR AND THEN DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S WHERE CLOUDS CLEAR LATE IN
THE NIGHT. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH THE NEXT
COLD FRONT SCHEDULED FOR TUESDAY WITH A SEASONABLE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S AND LOW TEMPS IN THE 40S.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 509 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
A COMPLICATED TAF PACKAGE THIS EVENING. CLEARING LINE IS
TANTALIZINGLY CLOSE AND FEEL CIGS WILL LIFT BRIEFLY DURING THE
MID-EVENING BEFORE LOWERING AGAIN AFTER 06Z. WET GROUND COUPLED
WITH THE BRIEF CLEARING WILL LEAD TO FOG AND LOWER CIGS DEVELOPING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL CLEAR BY 15Z ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH 00Z. 43

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/

DISCUSSION...
SFC LOW LOCATED ALONG THE SW LOUISIANA COAST WITH UPPER LOW
BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT OF SE TX. PRECIP HAS MOSTLY COME TO AN END
AT THIS POINT WITH SUBSIDENT AIRMASS ON BACK SIDE OF LOW BEGINNING
TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA. FINALLY SEEING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES. HAVE LEANED TOWARD MORE CONSERVATIVE NAM
WITH THE CLOUD FORECAST...KEEPING THE LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN HALF THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR AREA
WIDE BY LATE TONIGHT. THE CLEARING SKIES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND WET GROUND CONDITIONS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. ONCE FOG BURNS OFF BY
MID MORNING SUNDAY WILL BE A VERY NICE DAY WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE
AND MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY AS WEAK SFC HIGH MOVES EAST. THE INCREASING
DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP EVEN MORE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT SUN NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY.
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS
MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS
TUESDAY. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY MODEST AS LOW LEVEL JET NEVER BECOMES FULLY ESTABLISHED.
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES DIFFLUENT MONDAY NIGHT...BUT BEST JET DYNAMICS
STAY NORTH OF THE AREA. STILL...PWS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
1.1-1.4 INCHES LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. THE INCREASING
MOISTURE ALONG WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL AID IN
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED -SHRA MON NIGHT...AND A NARROW BAND OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS
LATE MON NIGHT/TUESDAY. KEPT POPS GOING THROUGH TUE AFTN WITH
ECMWF/NAM SHOWING A SOMEWHAT SLOWER FRONTAL MOVEMENT THAN THE GFS.
RAPID CLEARING IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT AS FRONT CLEARS THE COASTAL
WATERS.

DEEP TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN STATES BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER SE TX WEDNESDAY AND GETS
REINFORCED GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL FRONTS
PASS THROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE END RESULT SHOULD BE
VERY NICE WEATHER FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY...DRY AND COOL WITH
LOTS OF SUNSHINE. EXPECT MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S...MAX TEMPS IN THE
60S FOR MOST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS SATURDAY AS THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
ROCKIES. EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE
LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLY BACK IN THE
FORECAST AS EARLY AS SUNDAY.

35

AVIATION...
LOOKS LIKE FOG MAY BE AN ISSUE TONIGHT AS THE WET GROUNDS...CALMING
WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES COME INTO PLAY OVERNIGHT. NOT SEEING A LOT
OF SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE THE AREA BEHIND THE EXIT-
ING STORM SYSTEM PER CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. AS SUCH THE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
CURRENTLY IN THE TAFS MAY NOT BE LOW ENOUGH AND LIFR CONDITIONS MAY
BE WIDESPREAD BY SUNRISE SUNDAY.  41

MARINE...
LOOKS LIKE THINGS ARE IMPROVING THIS AFTN. WINDS/SEAS CONTINUING TO
SLOWLY FALL AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE ENE. WILL GO AHEAD AND DROP
THE SCA FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS AND GO WITH AN SCEC THROUGH THE NEXT
UPDATE/PACKAGE. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS UNTIL SUN NIGHT. THE RETURN OF
LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS TO BE FAIRLY BRIEF AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA ON TUES. SCA CONDITIONS ARE PROGGED BEHIND THIS FRONT
FROM TUES NIGHT THRU WEDS AFTN.  41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      48  70  48  75  56 /  10   0   0  10  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              48  70  48  76  61 /  10   0   0  10  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            53  66  55  73  64 /  10   0   0  10  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 2 AM CST SUNDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...43

000
FXUS64 KAMA 220516 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1116 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES BETWEEN 12Z AND
18Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE THREE TAF SITES
BETWEEN ABOUT 10Z AND 14Z SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 5
TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHERLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BY 00Z MONDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/

AVIATION...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING BY 01Z SUNDAY TO AROUND 5 TO 10
KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE THREE TAF SITES BETWEEN 10Z
AND 14Z SUNDAY SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE NORTH 10 TO 20 KNOTS...THEN
DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON AFTER 18Z SUNDAY TO AROUND 5 TO 15
KNOTS OR LESS AND VEERING AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 128 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THIS FORECAST.
THIS MEANS PERIODIC COLD FRONTS FOR THE PANHANDLES AS UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCES MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
PLAINS. THESE COLD FRONTS WILL SURGE QUICKLY SOUTHWARD BEHIND THESE
DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. THE PANHANDLES SHOULD EQUAL OUT
TO ABOUT NORMAL ON TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK. SOME DAYS WE WILL BE JUST
BELOW NORMAL AND SOME DAYS WE WILL SEE READINGS JUST ABOVE NORMAL.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO BE SLIM TO NONE FOR THE REGION THROUGH
NEXT SATURDAY.

THERE COULD BE SOMEWHAT OF A PATTERN CHANGE BY LATER IN THE
THANKSGIVING WEEKEND AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY.
THIS MAY HELP TO DRAG SOME COLDER CANADIAN AIR THIS WAY. MODELS DO
NOT AGREE ON OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF DECEMBER. THE GFS KEEPS OUR REGION DRY...WHILE THE
ECMWF HOLDS OUT SOME HOPE FOR PRECIP JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST FOR
NEXT SUNDAY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN.

KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT SEEMS TO HANDLE THE STRENGTH OF THE NEXT
COUPLE OF FRONTS BEST.

THANKS FOR THE COORDINATION ABQ.

FIRE WEATHER...
WINDS WILL GET STRONG AT TIMES THIS WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONTS. BUT THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO STAY OUT OF
THE CRITICAL RANGE.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/14

000
FXUS64 KLUB 220514
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1114 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009

.AVIATION...
THERE WILL BE NO AVIATION IMPACTS AT KLBB WITH IFR AND POSSIBLY
LIFR CONDITIONS AT KCDS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. LOW CIGS AND VISBYS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS ENCOMPASSING
THE KCDS AREA BUT NOT MAKING IT TO THE KLBB TERMINAL. THESE LIFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS. A COLD
FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/

SHORT TERM...
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AID IN LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER
SERN CO AND THEN PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO MUCH OF THE
CWFA...PERHAPS STALLING ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS...BY SUNDAY
EVENING WITH RETURN FLOW QUICKLY PICKING UP AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG
FRONT ON MONDAY.  PREDOMINANT FCST CHALLENGE WILL BE DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG AND/OR STRATUS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO CALL FOR NEAR-SATURATED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES.  WITH A LITTLE BETTER SRLY FLOW TONIGHT...WILL
CALL FOR AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS
ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH DENSITY/COVERAGE.  ON THE
CAPROCK...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND NOT QUITE
AS COOL AS LAST NIGHT.  AS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE FWFLUB...AN ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER WILL EXIST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHERE GUSTY WINDS
COMBINE WITH LOW MOISTURE LEVELS AND CURED FUELS...PARTICULARLY WEST
OF THE I-27/US 87 CORRIDOR. 26

LONG TERM...
GFS HAS REMAINED SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
ON MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH BOTH SEEM TO AGREE ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT EXITING THE CWA. ALSO...DUE TO THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE
UA LOW THE NAM BRINGS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN
ZONES...COULDN/T BITE GIVEN PREVIOUS RUNS AND CURRENT TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THEREFORE DRY
CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THRU THE FORECAST. THOUGH THE
ECMWF HAS HINTED AT A CHANCE OF PRECIP BY THE WEEKEND. GFS HAS
HOWEVER KEPT THE ASSOCIATED LOW MUCH FURTHER NORTH...THEREFORE
HAVE KEPT POPS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        26  61  27  62  24 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         29  63  30  64  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     30  65  32  64  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     30  66  38  67  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       33  66  38  67  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   33  68  38  69  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    32  68  37  69  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     39  64  43  67  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          37  67  37  68  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     40  66  41  71  38 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01

000
FXUS64 KFWD 220454 AAD
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1054 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009

.AVIATION...
STILL AWAITING DEW PTS TO GET TO THE SATURATION POINT...AS MODEL BUFFER
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A SFC INVERSION FORMING AFTER 08Z-09Z WITH WINDS ALREADY
LIGHT AND SOME PARTIAL CLEARING ALONG I-35 CORRIDOR WITH CLEAR SKIES
OVER ERN COUNTIES. NEITHER MOS GUIDANCES NOR CONDITIONAL CLIMO SHOW
MUCH POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH THEY ALSO DO NOT TAKE INTO
ACCOUNT RESIDUAL GROUND MOISTURE. QUESTION WILL BE...JUST HOW LOW WILL
VISIBILITIES GET?

FOR NOW...WILL KEEP CURRENT TRENDS DOWN TO IFR VSBYS BY 09Z/AFTER AND
MIDNIGHT CREW WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY. TOUGH CALL...BUT THE WEAK
FLOW/DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS WITH MOIST SOILS
AT LEAST SOME FOG. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY WITH JUST SCATTERED CIRRUS AND LIGHT SE WINDS 6-9 KTS SUN AFTN.

05/

&&

.UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE BUT WILL MAKE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKIES AS LOW CLOUDS SLOW TO ERODE ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT CLOUDS WILL LINGER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT OUT WEST...SO HAVE KEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE OBS INDICATING VSBYS
GENERALLY ABOVE 5SM MOST LOCATIONS...BUT SHOULD SEE SOME AREAS OF
FOG DEVELOP LATER WITH CALM WINDS AND MOIST GROUNDS.
OTHERWISE...ONLY A FEW TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPS.

91/DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO NORTH TEXAS YESTERDAY INTO
THIS MORNING...HAS MOVED INTO EXTREME EASTERN TEXAS AS OF 20Z.
THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT. SKIES HAVE CLEARED
ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN PART OF NORTH TEXAS. A BAND OF LOW
CLOUDS HAVE HELD IN ACROSS THE AREA ALONG AND WEST OF I-35
CORRIDOR TO THE CLEARING LINE...WHILE THE LOW CLOUDS JUST TO THE
EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR HAVE BEEN SLOWLY BREAKING UP. EXPECT TO
SEE THE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BREAK UP THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WITH A WET GROUND AND LIGHT WINDS...AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW 3 MILES IN
SPOTS...AND CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG. FOR NOW HAVE
JUST MENTIONED AREAS OF FOG FROM 09Z TO 15Z. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION. AFTERWARD... DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH COOL/COLD MORNINGS AND
SEASONABLY MILD AFTERNOONS. WE MAY SEE A FREEZE
WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  46  69  49  70  47 /   0   5   0   5  20
WACO, TX              46  69  49  73  51 /   5   0   0   5  20
PARIS, TX             43  67  45  67  48 /   5   5   5   5  40
DENTON, TX            46  69  46  69  45 /   0   5   0   5  20
MCKINNEY, TX          43  68  44  69  45 /   0   5   0   5  30
DALLAS, TX            46  69  51  70  49 /   0   5   0   5  20
TERRELL, TX           43  68  48  71  52 /   0   5   0   5  30
CORSICANA, TX         46  67  49  71  50 /   5   0   5   5  30
TEMPLE, TX            44  68  50  73  53 /   5   0   5   5  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/91

000
FXUS64 KCRP 220402
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1002 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009

.DISCUSSION...BASED ON WATER VAPOR/STREAMLINE DATA AND
DETERMINISTIC SOLNS EXPECT AN ATMOSPHERE OVERNIGHT CHARACTERIZED
BY WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND DRY EXCEPT FOR NEAR SURFACE MSTR. THE GFS
PROGS A THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE OVER THE INTERIOR COASTAL
BEND/VICTORIA CROSSROADS CONSISTENT WITH AREAS OF FOG (WHEN
COMBINED WITH LIGHT WIND EXPECTED DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE). HWR...DUE TO RECENT RAIN OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES
(ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI)...ALSO ANTICIPATE AREAS OF
FOG NEAR THE COAST/OVER THE BAY WATERS. ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER BASED IN PART ON RECENT DEW POINTS. SEAS/WIND
EXPECT TO REMAIN BELOW SCEC/SCA CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHEAST CORNER WHERE MVFR CIGS REMAIN IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTING TO THE EAST. FOR PORTIONS
OF THE COASTAL PLAINS WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR ALONG AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM TILDEN TO FREER, MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF
LIFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY AFTER 05Z. OVER THE NORTHEAST WHERE
MVFR CIGS LINGER THIS EVENING, CLOUD BASES WILL SLOWLY LOWER
OVERNIGHT TO LIFR/IFR WITH LIFR/IFR VSBYS DEVELOPING THERE AS
WELL. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE ENTIRE AREA BY ROUGHLY 17Z
SUNDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...CLOUDS OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST ARE FINALLY STARTING TO ERODE...AND GENERALLY EXPECT
THESE TO CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT BUT WILL MONITOR AND MAKE ANY
LAST MINUTE CHANGES IF NEEDED. MAIN ISSUE THE NEXT TWO DAYS WILL
BE FOG. WITH MUCH DRIER AIR LIGHT WINDS AND VERY WET GROUNDS...FOG
WILL LIKELY OCCUR. WHETHER IT BE SUFFICIENTLY DENSE OVER A LARGE
AREA IS THE MAIN QUESTION...AND FOR NOW WILL NOT ISSUE ANY DENSE
FOG ADVISORY YET AS NOT TOTALLY CONFIDENT IN AREAL COVERAGE...
ALTHOUGH KALI AND KVCT WILL BE PRIME SUSPECTS...THE LATTER AS LONG
AS THE CLOUDS DO NOT LINGER. HAVE MENTIONED AREAS OF FOG WITH
PATCHY DENSE FOG FOR NOW...AFTERNOON SHIFT CAN ADJUST AS NEEDED.
ONCE THE FOG CLEARS...SHOULD SEE MAINLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MOST OF
THE DAY...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING SLIGHTLY FROM THE SOUTH DURING
THE AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. LIGHT WINDS AND WEAK MOISTURE
ADVECTION (AGAIN WITH WET GROUNDS AND LIGHT WINDS) SHOULD BRING
FOG BACK AGAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT ON THE LOW
SIDE OR BELOW GUIDANCE BY A DEGREE OR TWO...ESPECIALLY OUT WEST
WHERE DRIER AIR RESIDES. HIGHS FOR SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE
70S...WITH PERHAPS 80F IN LAREDO. ABOUT A 5 TO 7 DEGREE WARM UP
MOST LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...AS MOISTURE AND
ONSHORE FLOW RETURN.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...AREAS OF FOG WILL START THE
PERIOD MONDAY IN A WEAK WARM ADVECTION SCENARIO AND MAYBE SLOW TO
CLEAR DUE TO LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. POTENT TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DRAW MOISTURE AND CLOUD NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY AFTN AND NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. EXPECT
A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AS INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE INCREASES WITH A CHANCE OF POPS MON NGT AND TUE AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LIGHT WINDS...SATURDATED SOILS AND WEAK
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD LEAD TO FOG REDEVELOPING
AGAIN MON NGT-TUE AM.  FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH
AROUND MIDDAY TUE. DYNAMICS ARE PROGGED TO BE WEAK AND H85 WINDS
WESTERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THUS WILL UNDER CUT THE GFS MOS POPS
AND INDICATE ONLY 40-50%.  CONVECTION MAY BE MORE PRONOUNCED OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AND TO OUR SOUTH AS GFS/ECMWF HINT AT SOME JET
DYNAMICS/DIFLUENCE ALOFT IN THOSE AREAS. PCPN WILL END FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TUE NGT AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW GULF...WITH A STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO SOUTH TEXAS. THE GFS KEEPS US DRY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOUTHERN JET.
KEPT THE DRY SCENARIO FOR NOW...BUT FUTURE SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO
CONSIDER ADDING POPS.

MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE...THEN BECOME ONSHORE LATE SUNDAY WITH A WEAK
TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 3
FEET BY SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    51  73  56  76  63  /   0   0  10  20  30
VICTORIA          48  71  50  76  60  /   0   0   0  10  30
LAREDO            53  80  57  78  62  /   0   0   0  20  30
ALICE             49  76  54  77  61  /   0   0  10  20  30
ROCKPORT          54  71  58  75  64  /   0   0   0  20  30
COTULLA           48  74  52  76  60  /   0   0   0  20  30
KINGSVILLE        49  75  54  77  62  /   0   0  10  20  30
NAVY CORPUS       55  72  59  74  64  /   0   0  10  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM