[top]
000
FXUS64 KEWX 082327 AAA
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
527 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION BELOW FOR 00Z DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF VAL VERDE COUNTY AND INTO
EDWARDS COUNTY. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E/NE ACROSS THE
STATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. WIDESPREAD RA/SHRA CONTINUE EAST OF
A HWY 281/I-37 LINE MOVING NORTH AT 15 TO 20 MPH. DRIER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AS RAINFALL
GRADUALLY MOVES AWAY. VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING AT KDRT.
VRF/MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE I-35 TAF SITES THROUGH 04Z.
AFTER 04Z WILL LIKELY MVFR CONDITIONS UNTIL AFTER 08Z-10Z WHEN IFR
AND LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS DEVELOP. KDRT WILL SEE LIFR CIGS AFTER
11Z. CIGS AND VSBYS IMPROVE AFTER 15Z AND VFR WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT
EAST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 02Z AND THEN LIGHT
N/NE AFTER 09Z AT KAUS/KSAT ADN KSSF. N WIND NEAR 10 KTS AFTER
17Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ROTATING THROUGH TX THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SHOWERS MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. WV SAT
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR MOVING IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND MOST RAIN SHOULD
BE OVER BY MIDNIGHT. CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE EAST UNTIL
MON AFTERNOON WHEN THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE CWA.
MON AFTERNOON THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK OVER TX
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL MEAN A DRY WARM WEEK AHEAD.
TEMPS WILL BE MAIN STEADY NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE NEXT SAT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS TX. AT THIS TIME HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES. GFS AND ECMWF DISAGREE ON
THIS SYSTEM...BUT ITS SEVEN DAYS OUT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 68 61 76 60 78 / 50 40 - - 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 68 59 75 56 77 / 50 40 - - 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 68 59 76 56 78 / 60 40 - 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 71 58 74 54 76 / 40 40 10 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 72 62 76 57 78 / 40 10 - 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 66 59 74 55 76 / 40 40 - - 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 70 61 76 55 78 / 50 10 - 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 68 58 76 57 78 / 60 40 - - 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 74 61 76 57 78 / 50 40 - - 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 71 61 77 57 79 / 50 30 - 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 72 61 76 57 78 / 60 30 - 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
02/10/22
[top]
000
FXUS64 KMAF 082325
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
525 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY
DETERIORATE ON AND AFTER 08Z TONIGHT WITH IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING
IN THE 09/12Z TIME FRAME. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO DROP INTO THE IFR
CATEGORY AT SEVERAL OF THE TERMINALS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD LAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN
BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
12
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/
DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND THE LOWER TRANS PECOS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
DAVIS MOUNTAINS...AND WILL KEEP LOW POPS GOING THROUGH 00Z.
THEREAFTER...WE HAVE A DRY FORECAST GOING FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...AND CONDITIONS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS AREAS MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE PECOS RIVER AGAIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING. FOG
WAS LOCALLY DENSE IN A FEW SPOTS THIS MORNING...AND EXPECT THIS MAY
OCCUR AGAIN MONDAY MORNING...BUT WE CURRENTLY DO NOT ANTICIPATE
DENSE FOG TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO NECESSITATE AN ADVISORY.
A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD INTO THE PANHANDLE MONDAY. THIS FEATURE CURRENTLY DOES NOT
APPEAR TO HAVE A STRONG PUSH SOUTHWARD...SO EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO
REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWFA MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
REACH WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. SURFACE RIDGING
SHOULD BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR THE SURFACE DEWPOINT
AGAIN TOWARD MORNING. WEAK UPGLIDE STILL LOOKS TO SUPPORT SOME
FOG/LIGHT DRIZZLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND HAVE LEFT MENTION IN THE
WEATHER GRIDS. DIMINISHING FOG/DRIZZLE AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVING
EASTWARD... TEMPERATURES LOOK BE A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT
THE UPPER FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AS A BROAD TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. A WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A
SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION. WE
HAVE WARMED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE WARMEST DAY CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR HIGH
WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AS THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. OTHERWISE...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN SUNDAY.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
67/21
[top]
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 082209
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
309 PM MST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL BE DRY AND WE WILL ONLY SEE MODEST COOLING
ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL GIVE
US BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
OUR QUIET...WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR
MOST OF THE COMING WEEK. ALOFT A FLAT RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP US SUNNY AND DRY FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ON MONDAY NIGHT A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD A FAIR AMOUNT
OF COOLING WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON THE COOLING AND NOW IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE OUR ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA LATE ON
WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO APPROACH
THE AREA. OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WE WILL SEE A DRY AND WARM
SOUTHWEST FLOW. CURRENTLY THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE KEEPING THE MAIN
PART OF THE UPPER LOW TOO FAR NORTH TO GIVE US AN PRECIP CHANCES.
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE A TYPICAL WIND MAKER SO I HAVE TAKEN THE
TOKEN POPS OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS AND WE HAVE STARTED TO RAMP UP THE
WINDS.
LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WE WILL SEE OUR HIGHS RUNNING
TEN TO TWELVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THEN ON TUESDAY ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE FRONT WE WILL SEE SOME COOLING...BUT OUR HIGHS WILL
STILL BE FIVE TO SEVEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK WE WILL SEE OUR HIGHS RUNNING AROUND FIVE TO EIGHT
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FOR NEXT WEEKEND WE WILL BE ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE END OF THE WEEK WIND MAKER SO WE WILL SEE COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS WILL RUN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID 09/00Z-10/00Z...
VFR CONDTS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THRU MAJORITY OF
PD. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS
FOUR CORNERS...WITH WK DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO MOVE THRU AS IT DOES
MONDAY. THIS WILL SEND WEAK COLD FRONT IN FROM NE LATE IN THE
FWFDAY...AND WINDS WILL LIKELY SHIFT EAST AS A RESULT. LIGHT EAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AND WILL REMAIN CONFINED EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESUME ACROSS THE REGION...AS RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY TRIES TO REBUILD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. DURING THIS PROCESS...A WEAK DISTURBANCE
REMAINS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THIS RIDGE MONDAY. PASSAGE OF THIS
FEATURE WILL SEND A WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT OUR WAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST TOMORROW. AREA-WIDE WIND SHIFT TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND
LOW CLOUDS OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF NMZ112 AND NMZ113 ARE THE MAIN
EFFECTS WITH FRONT ANTICIPATED MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. AS A
RESULT...HIGHS TUESDAY WILL DROP ROUGHLY 2 TO 6 DEGREES FROM THOSE
EXPECTED MONDAY. GREATEST DEGREE OF COOLING WILL BE SEEN EAST OF
THE RIO GRANDE. THREAT OF CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS MAY RETURN END OF
UPCOMING WEEK...AS POPULAR MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST PASSAGE OF
FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH BY WEEKS END. STRENGTHENING 20-FT SW WINDS
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MAY RAISE THE THREAT OF CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS
AT THAT TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 47 77 47 74 46 / 0 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA TX 43 74 43 73 42 / 0 0 0 10 0
LAS CRUCES 44 76 43 73 42 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 41 72 40 70 39 / 0 0 10 10 0
CLOUDCROFT 29 60 29 58 28 / 0 0 10 10 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 41 75 40 72 39 / 0 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 40 72 37 71 36 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEMING 42 76 41 73 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 42 77 44 78 43 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
BRICE/TRIPOLI
[top]
000
FXUS64 KFWD 082153
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
353 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...
THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY...PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS THE
IMPACTS OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO MOVE OVER NORTH TX
AFTER SUNSET. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES NUMEROUS RAIN
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST SOUTH OF
THE CWA EXTENDING FROM BRADY TO JARRELL TO HUNTSVILLE AND AREAS
SOUTH. AFTER 00Z NAM/GFS BOTH BRING STRONG UPPER LVL POSITIVE PV
ADVECTION OVER MUCH OF THE CWA SIGNALING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT SPREADING OVER NORTH TX AFTER SUNSET. 12Z FWD SOUNDING
INDICATED VERY DRY H870 TO H600 LAYER OVER NORTH TX THIS
MORNING...SO FEELING IS THAT EVEN AS FAIRLY STRONG FORCING FOR
ASCENT SPREADS OVER NORTH TX...PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL
DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS DRIER AIR WORKS AGAINST
PRECIPITATION SPREADING NORTH. REGARDLESS THINK THAT SEVERAL HOURS
OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS FAR NORTH AS THE RED RIVER BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. NAM REMAINS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...HOWEVER BY
SUNRISE BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT AFTER SUNRISE FORCING FOR
SUBSIDENCE WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE
BRINGING AN END TO ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION ACRS THE AREA.
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH THE APPROACH OF TROPICAL SYSTEM
IDA TO THE GULF COAST...EXPECT LOW LVL FLOW OVER NORTH TX TO SWING
AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST...BRINGING RELATIVELY DRY AIR INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH TX MONDAY EVENING OR
MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER WITH THIS SOMEWHAT STRONG SIGNAL FOR DRY
AIR MOVING IN...KEPT A DRY FORECAST GOING.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...IDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND UPPER LVL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS KEEPING A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK. ON FRIDAY...MODELS INDICATE THAT A STRONG UPPER LVL
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CONUS TRANSITIONING THE UPPER
FLOW TO SOUTHWEST ALOFT OF THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL PROMOTE LEE
SIDE TROUGHING AND LOW LVL SOUTHERLY FLOW HEADED INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE WEEKEND...PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD PROMOTE SOME DECENT
LOW LVL MOISTURE RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND THE LIKELY PASSAGE OF A COLD/PACIFIC FRONT DURING THE
PERIOD WARRANT THE INCLUSION OF SMALL CHC POPS IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 57 75 54 73 49 / 30 10 10 5 5
WACO, TX 56 74 51 73 48 / 50 10 10 5 5
PARIS, TX 54 73 53 73 48 / 30 10 10 5 5
DENTON, TX 57 75 50 73 46 / 30 10 10 5 5
MCKINNEY, TX 56 74 52 73 49 / 30 10 10 5 5
DALLAS, TX 57 75 53 73 51 / 30 10 10 5 5
TERRELL, TX 57 74 55 73 50 / 30 10 10 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 55 74 52 74 49 / 40 10 10 5 5
TEMPLE, TX 57 74 52 73 48 / 50 10 10 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
[top]
000
FXUS64 KCRP 082149
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
349 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...A COMPLEX WX SCENARIO
IS EXPECTED TNT. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PWS UP TO 1.8
INCHES WL CONTINUE TO BE DRAWN NWD ACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF THE
CWA THIS EVE. DECENT SYNOPTIC ASCENT ASSCTD WITH A WELL-DEFINED
S/WV TROUGH AXIS MOVING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH TX WL ACT
UPON THIS MOISTURE TO PRODUCE RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE ERN AREAS...MAINLY THIS EVE. AS THE S/WV TROUGH AXIS
PUSHES EWD TNT...THE AXIS OF HIGHEST MOISTURE WL SHIFT EWD TOO. AS
A RESULT...PCPN IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF TNT FROM WEST TO
EAST. A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON MON AND MON NIGHT
AS RIDGING AT ALL LVLS BUILDS INTO THE CWA. GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE
TO GUIDANCE MOS TEMPS.
A DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH AXIS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE OFFSHORE
WATERS AND A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SITUATED FROM WEST TX INTO
THE TN RVR VLY WL CONTRIBUTE TO A STRENGTHENING GRADIENT OVER MUCH
OF THE WATERS THROUGH MON MORNING. THE RESULTING LONG FETCH OF
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW AND HIGH ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WL
CONTRIBUTE TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THROUGH MONDAY. AS A
RESULT...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE
ENTIRE COAST. THE NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING ON MON WL TEND TO LESSEN
THE TIDAL LVLS SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER...WITH SUCH A LONG FETCH OF
SWELLS THAT WL IMPACT THE COASTLINE BOTH FROM THE SFC TROUGH AXIS
AND FROM HURRICANE IDA...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING MAY EVEN BE AN ISSUE
INTO TUE. FOR NOW...WL GO WITH THE ADVY THROUGH 12Z TUE.
&&
.MARINE...THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF AS
MENTIONED ABOVE WL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY
NLY FLOW TNT AND MON. LARGE SEAS (12 FT) ALREADY BEING EXPERIENCED AT
BUOY 42002 WL SLOWLY ADVANCE INTO THE MARINE CWA TNT AND REMAIN
ABV 10 FT THROUGH MON EVENING. SWELLS FROM HURRICANE IDA WL ALSO
ARRIVE ACROSS OUR MARINE WATERS AND FURTHER MAINTAIN THESE HIGH
SEAS THROUGH MON NIGHT. THE MAXIMUM PRESSURE GRADIENT WL PEAK
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MON. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WL BE
POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVY
CONDITIONS WL PERSIST FOR THE NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THE GRADIENT WL DROP OFF RATHER SHAPRLY
OVER THE BAYS AND SO NO SCA IS EXPECTED ACROSS THESE AREAS. THE
RAIN WL SLOWLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TNT AS THE AXIS OF BEST
LIFT/MOISTURE SHIFTS EWD DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE S/WV TROUGH AXIS.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY WITH GRADUAL DRYING OF AIR MASS. MODELS
KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED STRATOCU CLOUDS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH SUBTLE COOLING OF THE AIR MASS ON WEDNESDAY.
H85 TEMPS OF 11 TO 12C. WINDS OVER THE WATERS SHOULD DECREASE
BELOW SCA ON WEDNESDAY. FURTHER DRYING OCCURS ON THURSDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER BETWEEN 0.5 AND 0.75 INCHES. ENOUGH DRYING
AND AFTERNOON DEW POINTS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S SHOULD ALLOW FOR
MODERATE DIURNAL RANGES AS ALL INLAND AREAS DECOUPLE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY MORNINGS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL BY A
FEW DEGREES...UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S MOST AREAS BUT MID 80S FOR THE
RIO GRANDE. FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY BY FRIDAY WITH THE START OF
INCREASING MOISTURE AND WIND FLOW. AIR MASS WARMING TO 13C BY FRIDAY
AND UP TO 15-16C ON SATURDAY. SHOULD HAVE MIN TEMPS BECOMING
WARMER OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO WIND AND LOW CLOUDS WITH TEMPS MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY. GENERALLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOS AND GMOS FOR
THE HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR THE LOWS...ESPECIALLY INLAND AREAS.
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN DEPICTED A CONSOLIDATED UPPER TROUGH TRACKING
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND. THE
12Z GFS HAD AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND BROUGHT A COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA BY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE
LARGEST 500 MB SPREADS ON THE ENSEMBLE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE GFS SOLUTION. 12Z ECMWF CAME IN AND COMPLICATED MATTERS
A LITTLE LEAVING A SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW NEAR THE
BAJA...SIMILAR TO OUR PATTERN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. THE ECMWF DOES
BRING A SHALLOW FRONT INTO SOUTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY...AND WITH GOOD
AGREEMENT OF THE MAIN ENERGY CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DEPICT
A FRONT FOR SUNDAY. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WOULD BE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY
NIGHT BUT UPPER SUPPORT MINIMUM. WITH MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW FOR
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT SOME SHOWERS WILL FORM OVER THE WATERS
AND MAY AFFECT THE COAST PRIOR TO THE FRONT. WITH SUCH A SHALLOW
FRONT THIS DOES LEAVE THE CHANCE FOR OVERRUNNING ON MONDAY SO GRIDS
HAVE LOW WEATHER CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 64 79 60 81 57 / 30 10 0 0 0
VICTORIA 61 77 56 79 54 / 40 10 0 0 0
LAREDO 63 83 60 84 58 / 10 10 0 0 0
ALICE 62 82 58 82 55 / 20 10 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 64 79 61 79 61 / 40 10 0 0 0
COTULLA 60 83 56 82 53 / 10 10 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 63 81 60 81 55 / 20 10 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 66 78 63 78 63 / 30 10 0 0 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN
PATRICIO.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
MB/80...SHORT TERM
AT/15...LONG TERM
[top]
000
FXUS64 KSJT 082145
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
345 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
THIS EVENING PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. VIS SAT LOOP
SHOWS WEAK SFC REFLECTION JUST TO THE SOUTH WITH MSAS DEPICTING AN
AREA OF WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE EXTENDING NORTH ACROSS THE NORTH EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND THE CONCHO VALLEY. WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDER OVER THIS AREA AND MAINTAIN A LOW END CHANCE
FURTHER SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY AND THE
HEARTLAND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN MOIST
OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. CLOUD
COVER WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS
FROM DROPPING OUT OF THE LOWER 50S. AFTER A CLOUDY START ON MONDAY
EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY BY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 70S WITH A LIGHT EAST
.LONG TERM...
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN CWA MONDAY EVENING BEFORE QUICKLY DISSIPATING ON
TUESDAY. HAVE REMOVED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECAST
AS BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
QUICKLY BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH.
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY IN THE 70S THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED WITH MORNING LOWS FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOW 50S.
DRY FORECAST ON TAP THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE FORECASTED OVER THE COMING WEEKEND...LATEST ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS IN AGREEMENT AS TO A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES COOLING TO THE 60S POST-FRONTAL ON SUNDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 52 72 48 73 46 / 10 10 10 10 0
SAN ANGELO 55 73 47 73 45 / 20 10 10 10 0
JUNCTION 52 74 48 78 42 / 40 10 10 10 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
24/15
000
FXUS64 KEWX 082138
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
338 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ROTATING THROUGH TX THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SHOWERS MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. WV SAT
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR MOVING IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND MOST RAIN SHOULD
BE OVER BY MIDNIGHT. CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE EAST UNTIL
MON AFTERNOON WHEN THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE CWA.
MON AFTERNOON THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK OVER TX
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL MEAN A DRY WARM WEEK AHEAD.
TEMPS WILL BE MAIN STEADY NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE NEXT SAT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS TX. AT THIS TIME HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES. GFS AND ECMWF DISAGREE ON
THIS SYSTEM...BUT ITS SEVEN DAYS OUT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 61 76 60 78 56 / 40 - - 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 59 75 56 77 51 / 40 - - 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 59 76 56 78 52 / 40 - 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 58 74 54 76 52 / 40 10 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 62 76 57 78 53 / 10 - 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 59 74 55 76 55 / 40 - - 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 61 76 55 78 50 / 10 - 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 58 76 57 78 53 / 40 - - 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 61 76 57 78 54 / 40 - - 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 61 77 57 79 54 / 30 - 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 61 76 57 78 53 / 30 - 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/09
000
FXUS64 KMAF 082122
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
322 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND THE LOWER TRANS PECOS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
DAVIS MOUNTAINS...AND WILL KEEP LOW POPS GOING THROUGH 00Z.
THEREAFTER...WE HAVE A DRY FORECAST GOING FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...AND CONDITIONS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS AREAS MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE PECOS RIVER AGAIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING. FOG
WAS LOCALLY DENSE IN A FEW SPOTS THIS MORNING...AND EXPECT THIS MAY
OCCUR AGAIN MONDAY MORNING...BUT WE CURRENTLY DO NOT ANTICIPATE
DENSE FOG TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO NECESSITATE AN ADVISORY.
A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD INTO THE PANHANDLE MONDAY. THIS FEATURE CURRENTLY DOES NOT
APPEAR TO HAVE A STRONG PUSH SOUTHWARD...SO EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO
REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWFA MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
REACH WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. SURFACE RIDGING
SHOULD BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR THE SURFACE DEWPOINT
AGAIN TOWARD MORNING. WEAK UPGLIDE STILL LOOKS TO SUPPORT SOME
FOG/LIGHT DRIZZLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND HAVE LEFT MENTION IN THE
WEATHER GRIDS. DIMINISHING FOG/DRIZZLE AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVING
EASTWARD... TEMPERATURES LOOK BE A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT
THE UPPER FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AS A BROAD TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. A WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A
SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION. WE
HAVE WARMED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE WARMEST DAY CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR HIGH
WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AS THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. OTHERWISE...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN SUNDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX 53 73 49 70 / 10 10 10 0
CARLSBAD NM 44 75 45 72 / 0 0 10 0
DRYDEN TX 55 76 53 74 / 10 10 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 51 77 51 74 / 10 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 50 69 48 65 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 48 73 46 70 / 0 0 10 0
MARFA TX 36 72 41 68 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 52 74 48 72 / 10 10 10 0
ODESSA TX 53 74 48 72 / 10 10 10 0
WINK TX 53 77 49 75 / 0 0 10 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
67/21
[top]
000
FXUS64 KLUB 082112
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
312 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SHORT TERM...
FILLING UPPER LOW NEAR DEL RIO HAS BEGUN DRIFTING MORE NORTHERLY
THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH ONLY EFFECTS DEALT LOCALLY WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS MAINLY OFF THE CAPROCK. BROAD
TROUGHING FARTHER NW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN ROCKIES WILL KEEP A
SURFACE TROF WEST OF THE CWA TONIGHT...SO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN INTACT UNDER A LIGHT SLY FLOW. UNLIKE THE ADVECTION FOG
EXPERIENCED THIS MORNING...RADIATIONAL FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIKELY
MATERIALIZE OVERNIGHT AS ADVERTISED BY BOTH THE GFS AND NAM. SETUP
DOESN/T APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG SO WE DON/T
ANTICIPATE ANY HEADLINES...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS LIKELY.
ARRIVAL OF SHALLOW UPPER TROUGHING BY MONDAY MORNING AND THE APPROACH
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT STILL APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW SHOWERS
INITIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES BEFORE EXPANDING SOUTHWEST LATER
IN THE DAY...ESPECIALLY SHOULD SUFFICIENT CLEARING AND SUBSEQUENT
DESTABILIZATION OCCUR. LATEST SREF INDICATES ADEQUATE CAPE IN OUR
NORTHEAST ZONES AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR SOME TSRA...BUT MEANINGFUL
PRECIP APPEARS LIMITED BY BOTH WEAK FORCING AND THE ONSET OF UPPER
HEIGHT RISES. GIVEN THIS HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE REALM. OTHERWISE THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO
FRONTOLYSIS MON AFTERNOON RESULTING IN MARGINAL PROGRESS INTO OUR
NWRN ZONES. INHERITED MAX TEMPS WERE LEFT LARGELY INTACT OVER THE
NORTH AS THEY CONTINUE TO FIT THIS PATTERN WELL...ALTHOUGH VALUES
WERE TRENDED WARMER OVER THE SOUTH WHERE STRATUS SHOULD PROVE LESS
PERSISTENT.
&&
.LONG TERM...
NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY LATE MONDAY TOWARD A
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND EASTERN U.S. TROUGHINESS. THIS WILL
FINALLY ALLOW FOR A FROPA AND SOUTHWARD RIDGING OF THE POST
FRONTAL AIRMASS INTO TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT LIGHT QPF
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY MONDAY NIGHT. AGAIN WE WILL NOT
INCREASE POPS BEYOND THE CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE /20 PERCENT/ GIVEN
A LACK OF FORCING/ASCENT ALOFT BENEATH BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
MINIMAL SIGNALS FOR UPGLIDE. HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT A SHALLOW/MOIST POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WHICH SHOULD
PROMOTE PERIODS OF FOG OR POSSIBLY DRIZZLE GIVEN LIGHT UPSLOPE
REGIME.
THE UA RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD OVER WEST TEXAS TUESDAY...
HELPING TO MAINTAIN RESIDUAL SURFACE RIDGING AND NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS.
THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN/PUSH EAST IN ADVANCE OF AN
EVOLVING WESTERN U.S. TROUGH BY LATE WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
TOWARD A CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS EJECTION OF THE THIS FEATURE NEXT
WEEKEND. THUS A DELAY/MINIMIZING TREND FOR RAIN/FROPA IS AGAIN
REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 44 61 41 64 39 / 10 20 20 10 0
TULIA 45 66 45 66 40 / 10 20 20 10 0
PLAINVIEW 46 67 45 67 40 / 10 20 20 10 0
LEVELLAND 47 70 48 67 41 / 0 20 20 10 0
LUBBOCK 49 69 48 69 43 / 10 20 20 10 0
DENVER CITY 48 70 47 69 44 / 0 10 20 10 0
BROWNFIELD 48 71 48 69 44 / 0 10 20 10 0
CHILDRESS 53 70 48 70 44 / 20 20 20 10 10
SPUR 52 71 49 68 44 / 10 20 20 10 0
ASPERMONT 55 73 50 69 47 / 10 20 20 10 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
93/20
[top]
000
FXUS64 KHGX 082110
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
310 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SWATH OF GULF MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH APPROACHING S/W TO PRODUCE
GOOD PRECIP COVERAGE ACROSS SW ZONES AND WWD INTO CNTL TX. NOT REAL
CONFIDENT REGARDING TONIGHT`S POPS. GFS GENERALLY SHRINKS PRECIP
INLAND WITH THE NWD MOVING GULF TROF/SFC CIRCULATION BECOMING MORE
OF A FOCUS. NAM12 AND ECMWF KEEP THE S/W AS A PLAYER AND AN
ADDITIONAL FOCUS AS IT SLOWLY APPROACHES. WILL KEEP MID RANGE CHANCE
POPS ALREADY IN THE FCST FOR NOW AND LET THE SWING SHIFT UPDATE AS
TRENDS BECOME MORE CLEAR.
TROF IN THE GULF SHOULD GRADUALLY TREK EWD AS THE H5 TROF
APPROACHES. SFC GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN CLOSER TO THE COAST AND EXPECT
SOME COASTAL FLOODING AT THE MORE VULNERABLE SPOTS OVERNIGHT AS A
FLAT HIGH TIDE APPROACHES AND ENE WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE. THIS IS
ALREADY COVERED IN THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING/STATEMENTS.
WILL LIKELY SEE WRAP AROUND CLOUDINESS STICK AROUND FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY (AND POSSIBLY ISO/SCT SHRA EXTREME E) MON
WHICH SHOULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPS. OTHERWISE. HIGH PRES FILTERS INTO
THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROF AS WELL AS HURRICANE IDA
KEEPING THE REGION DRY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES FRI AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NRN
PLAINS. DYNAMICS AND BEST PUSH APPEAR TO STAY WELL NORTH SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH A SIGNIFICANT FRONT (IF AT ALL) WITH
THIS...ALTHOUGH ECMWF IS HINTING AT A MUCH FURTHER SWD FRONTAL
PUSH. CONTINUED TO TREND WITH THE GFS FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE. 47
&&
.MARINE...
SUSTAINED WINDS EASTERLY 19 KNOTS AT THE 42035 AND 42019 WITH 6 FOOT
SEAS AND 8-10 SECOND PERIODS. GRADIENT SHOULD INCREASE A LITTLE MORE
THIS EVENING AS THE LOW SE OF BRO MOVES NORTHEAST. SCA ALL WATERS.
STILL SOME POSSIBILITY OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE OFFSHORE
BOUNDARY THOUGH DECREASING RISK AS UPPER JET LIFTS OUT OF NETX THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.
TIDES STILL THE BIG ISSUE WITH TIDE LEVELS POSSIBLY REACHING 3-4.9FT
MAINLY ALONG THE STRETCH FROM FREEPORT TO HIGH ISLAND...BOLIVAR WILL
MOST LIKELY BEAR THE BRUNT OF THE TIDAL FLOODING WITH OVERWASH OF 87
POSSIBLE. TIDE LEVELS SHOULD DROP OFF MONDAY AFTER 9-11AM WITH THE
NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. ONSHORE FLOW REDEVELOPS THURSDAY AS HIGH
SHIFTS EAST INTO LA. 45
&&
.AVIATION...
MESSY FORECAST FOR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LIGHT RAINS
MOVING THROUGH SOME OF THE SITES THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON BUT LIFT
SHOULD WANE LATER TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION VCSH OR LIGHT
RAIN THROUGH AROUND 06Z. AFTER 06Z CIGS SHOULD COME BACK DOWN AND
EXPECT CIGS TO SET UP AT 0900-1500FT TONIGHT AND PERSIST. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE MONDAY MORNING WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS IN PLAY THROUGH
18Z AT MOST SITES...LATER FOR CXO/IAH. 45
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 61 76 58 79 56 / 40 20 0 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 63 74 59 79 57 / 40 30 0 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 67 74 63 74 63 / 50 40 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BAYS AND GULF.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...
AND BRAZORIA COUNTIES.
&&
$$
[top]
000
FXUS64 KBRO 082009
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
209 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...AFTER SOME MRNG SHOWERS MOVED ONSHORE...MOST THE
DAYTIME TDA HAS BEEN DRY. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED
OFFSHORE THRU MIDDAY...AND IS LIKELY TO BE CONFINED THERE THRU
THIS AFTN. THERE MAYBE A SLIGHT CHC FOR SOME ACTIVITY TO PUSH INTO
COASTAL LOCALES THIS AFTN...BUT CHC APPEARS TO WANE QUICKLY BY
THIS EVE/TNGT. THE TROF OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL BASICALLY BE ABSORBED INTO HURRICANE IDA THAT IS FCST
TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TNGT. DRYING CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED TO BE THE UPCOMING TREND AS THE ATMS DRIES OUT AS MID
LEVEL TROF ROTATES THRU AND TO THE EAST. VSBL SATL IMAGERY
INDICATES CLD COVER ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES DIMINISHING FAIRLY
QUICKLY THIS AFTN. TEMPS HAVE THEREFORE RESPONDED A LITTLE BIT BETTER
THERE WITH THE INCREASED SUNSHINE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY TIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST
AND EWD ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD INTO DEEP SOUTH TX THRU MIDWEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW THE DRY
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING CLOSE TO NORMALS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THRU
MIDWEEK BEFORE VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST TWD THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. THE NEXT POTENTIAL COLD FRONT THAY MAY IMPACT SOUTH TX IS
PROGGED BY LONG RANGE MDLS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA BY LATE SUN/EARLY
MON OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE...BRINGING MVFR
PERIODICALLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...AT NOON BUOY 42020 REPORTED EAST NORTHEAST WINDS AT 12
GUSTS TO 14 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 7.5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 9 SECONDS.
LARGE SWELLS FROM DEVELOPING HURRICANE IDA WILL APPROACH THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST THIS EVENING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS EAST OF
PADRE ISLAND NOW THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO
BE EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE LARGE SWELLS. MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE SWELLS RAPIDLY
SUBSIDE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 68 80 63 80 / 20 10 10 0
BROWNSVILLE 66 82 63 80 / 20 10 10 0
HARLINGEN 65 83 60 83 / 20 10 10 0
MCALLEN 65 84 62 86 / 10 10 10 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 63 85 61 85 / 10 10 10 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 69 80 65 80 / 20 10 10 0
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR TXZ251-256-257.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ251-
256-257.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
175.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...57-VIPOND
MARINE/AVIATION...58-PHILO
MESOSCALE/FXC...69-HART
[top]
000
FXUS64 KAMA 082005
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
205 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PLAINS OF NM WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE SURFACE LOW NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL KS
TO ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN IA. EXPECT THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO BEGIN MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG WITH THE FRONT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION ON SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT MAY BE ENOUGH
TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CAPROCK LATE
TONIGHT...AFTER 06Z MONDAY. IN ADDITION...FEEL FOG WILL DEVELOP MUCH
OF THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MUCH COOLER MONDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. KEPT MENTION
OF SHOWERS MONDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS UPPER
TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES NORTHEAST INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES BY 12Z TUESDAY...PRECIP WILL END AND A
DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE PANHANDLES BY
TUESDAY. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST OVER THE PANHANDLES BY MID WEEK
RESULTING IN ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND...LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE.
REMOVED MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BEING DRY SLOTTED AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
STAYS NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED TO BE LITTLE TO NONE THROUGH EARLY
THIS WEEK BUT MAY INCREASE ONCE AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE
WEEK. DRIER AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN NM AND
EASTERN CO AND STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING OF THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH WILL CAUSE THE DOWNSLOPING
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO REACH INTO THE BREEZY TO WINDY CATEGORY.
AT THIS TIME...MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH VALUES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE HOWEVER.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 44 59 40 61 40 / 10 20 20 10 0
BEAVER OK 45 57 44 65 39 / 20 30 20 5 0
BOISE CITY OK 39 54 36 61 37 / 10 20 10 5 0
BORGER TX 45 60 42 65 43 / 10 20 20 10 0
BOYS RANCH TX 43 58 39 64 39 / 10 20 20 10 0
CANYON TX 42 59 40 64 40 / 10 20 20 10 0
CLARENDON TX 47 69 42 66 42 / 20 20 20 10 0
DALHART TX 41 56 34 63 34 / 10 20 10 10 0
GUYMON OK 40 54 38 61 39 / 10 20 20 5 0
HEREFORD TX 41 61 39 66 40 / 10 20 20 10 0
LIPSCOMB TX 47 61 43 66 39 / 20 30 20 5 0
PAMPA TX 45 62 45 63 42 / 20 20 20 10 0
SHAMROCK TX 49 70 48 68 43 / 20 20 20 10 0
WELLINGTON TX 49 70 49 68 43 / 20 20 20 10 0
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
24/11
000
FXUS64 KMAF 081953
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
153 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATE TO REINSERT MAINLY SHOWERS BACK INTO THE DAVIS...GLASS AND
CHISOS MOUNTAINS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WILL SEND AN UPDATE SHORTLY TO REINSERT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE DAVIS/GLASS MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH THROUGH THE
BIG BEND REGION. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS INCREASED IN THESE AREAS
ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH...AND ALONG WITH AMPLE MOISTURE RESULTED IN
A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING. LEFT A MENTION OF THUNDER ALSO AS PROGS
WERE INDICATING MINOR INSTABILITY THESE AREAS TOO. LEFT THE REST OF
THE FORECAST ALONE. UPDATE WILL FOLLOW SOON. 67
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX 75 51 73 47 / 0 10 10 20
CARLSBAD NM 79 45 75 47 / 0 0 0 10
DRYDEN TX 75 52 76 55 / 20 10 10 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 79 51 79 52 / 10 10 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 73 47 70 45 / 0 0 0 10
HOBBS NM 77 47 71 46 / 0 0 10 20
MARFA TX 74 35 74 39 / 20 0 0 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 75 51 74 47 / 10 10 10 20
ODESSA TX 75 51 74 48 / 10 10 10 20
WINK TX 80 49 77 47 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KSJT 081804
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1204 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.UPDATE...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE TERMINALS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH LIGHT S/SE WINDS AROUND
10 KT. UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON MAY
PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER SE TERMINALS AND HAVE CONTINUED
VCSH AT KJCT AFT 20Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS AND FOG APPEARS
LIKELY LATER TONIGHT AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN SATURATED AND WINDS
BECOME LIGHT S/SE. LATEST GFS/NAM MOS AND GFS LAMP INDICATE IFR
CIGS DEVELOPING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AFT 09Z AND THIS IS REFLECTED
IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED DURING THE
MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/
UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST SECTIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...
RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HILL COUNTRY THIS MORNING. 12Z
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS POCKET OF COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES THIS AFTERNOON
AND HAVE RAISED POPS TO LOW END CHANCE OVER THIS AREA. SHEAR WILL
BE WEAK SO ORGANIZED CONVECTION NOT EXPECTED BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER GIVEN THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES.
NO OTHER CHANGES MADE THIS UPDATE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/
SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO...AND WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS WERE MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING. THE LOW CLOUDS
WILL BE AROUND THROUGH THIS MORNING...THEN DISSIPATE THIS
AFTERNOON. LEE TROF JUST EAST OF THE ROCKY MTNS WILL KEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW GOING TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY A
FEW DEGREES COOLER DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH SLGT CHC POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWFA
TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE
ALONG WEAK UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. ALSO...KEEPING ISOLD TSTMS DUE TO
SOME WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. WILL DROP THE SLGT CHC POPS AFTER
06Z TONIGHT...HOWEVER PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT.
LONG TERM...
FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE AREA MONDAY MORNING.
WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG AND LIGHT DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW NEAR
THE SURFACE KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING TOO QUICKLY...AND
ALLOWING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SATURATION BELOW 900MB CONTINUING
INTO THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE KEPT MONDAY DRY OTHERWISE. WILL KEEP
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT GOING AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. BEST CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE NORTHWEST
OF OUR CWA WHERE SOME UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL LIFT
AND RAIN CHANCES. ON TUESDAY...WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUD
COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION...IT WILL BE RATHER WEAK...SO HAVE
BUMPED HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES.
A RIDGE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH LITTLE CHANCE
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 74 55 75 48 68 / 10 10 10 20 10
SAN ANGELO 75 54 75 47 70 / 20 10 10 10 10
JUNCTION 73 52 76 48 74 / 30 20 10 10 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99
000
FXUS64 KEWX 081751
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1151 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD SH/TS ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER LOW
IS MOVING WEST AND RADAR SHOWS RAINFALL COMING TO AN END OVER DRT.
HAVE PLACED IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVER KDRT ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME
LOW CIGS ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AS WEAK N AND E FLOW CONTINUES AT THE
SURFACE. SAT AND SSF HAVE SEEN A BATCH OF SH/TS OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS WITH THIS ACTIVITY MOVING OFF TO THE NW. ADDITIONAL LIGHTER
ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING TO THE SE AND MOVING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.
KEPT THE MENTION OF LOW CIGS AND REDUCED VISBY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. AUS WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO INTERACT
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE. CURRENT IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
SLIGHTLY AS SHOWERS MIX THE ATMOSPHERE. LOOK FOR FOG AND LOW CIGS
AGAIN TONIGHT FOR AUS AS A LIGHT NORTH WIND DEVELOPS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/
UPDATE...
TO ADD FOG IN THE NORTHEAST AND RAISE POPS IN THE WEST.
DISCUSSION...
FOG HAS FORMED IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES AND UNTIL THE RAIN
STARTS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO LIFT WITH CLOUDS ABOVE IT. ADDED FOG
ALONG AND EAST OF I35 FROM COMAL TO WILLIAMSON COUNTIES.
CONVECTION IS CROSSING THE RIO GRANDE AND MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH
INTO DIMMIT AND FRIO COUNTIES. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES. CONVECTION WILL SHIFT TO THE
EAST THIS AFTERNOON...SO HAVE LEFT LOWER POPS IN THE WEST AFTER
18Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/
AVIATION...
LIFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO MVFR LATE THIS
MORNING INTO VFR THIS AFTERNOON, THEN LOWER BACK TO IFR/MVFR
TONIGHT. SCT TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. HAVE GONE VCSH/VCTS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF
IMPACTS TO THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS AND
MAINLY E TO SE TODAY AND THEN BECOME N TO NE OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/
DISCUSSION...
PATCHY FOG WAS SLOW TO GET GOING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
MORNING WITH A NEAR SOLID LAYER OF STRATUS FORMING IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASED SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND THE APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT. MORNING RADAR LOOPS SHOW AREAS OF WEAK LIFT
MOVING UP THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE AND SOME
STRONGER ACTIVITY MOVING ONSHORE NEAR CRP. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
BEGIN TO ENTER SOUTH CENTRAL TX COUNTIES FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH
BY AROUND DAYBREAK WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN SETTING UP OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY. HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS LOW DUE TO THE LACK OF EXPECTED SURFACE HEATING AND
THE GENERAL WEAKENING TREND OF THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE ALOFT.
RAINFALL POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO LOOK MAINLY BELOW ONE-QUARTER INCH
WITH SPOTTY TOTALS OF ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH. ISOLATED STRONG CELLS
MAY DEVELOP BRIEFLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE OF CLEARING WHEN THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO
THE AREA.
RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WITH MODEL
DATA SHOWING DRY AND SUBSIDENT FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT. IF AREAS OF
SIGNIFICANT RAIN DEVELOP TODAY, LATER FORECAST PACKAGES MAY NEED
TO CONSIDER PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. NE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE
TUESDAY TO REMOVE A GOOD PERCENTAGE OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE;
THIS PROCESSED COULD BE ENHANCED WITH TRENDS IN THE OF THE TRACK
OF IDA OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE HYBRID UPPER TROUGH/TROPICAL
SYSTEM WILL PULL A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US SOUTH INTO
THE AREA, BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SKIES
CLEARING FOR LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
LATE PERIODS SHOW SOME UNCERTAINTY IN RESPONSE TO A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC. A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG
OVER THE WRN US LATE IN THE WEEK WITH MODELS SHOWING POOR
AGREEMENT ON LOCATION AND TIMING. SOME REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD REMAIN POOLED OVER THE WESTERN GULF TO RETURN QUICKLY WHEN
SOUTHERLIES BEGIN TO PICK UP LATE THURSDAY. THIS WOULD TRANSLATE
TO A DAMPENING OF DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES LATE NEXT WEEK AND
INCREASING RAIN POTENTIAL FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 73 61 77 60 75 / 50 20 10 10 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 74 60 76 57 75 / 50 20 10 - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 74 60 76 56 75 / 60 20 10 - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 72 59 74 55 71 / 40 20 10 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 76 61 78 58 76 / 40 10 - - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 73 59 75 57 74 / 40 20 10 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 75 60 77 57 76 / 50 20 - - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 74 60 76 57 75 / 60 20 10 - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 75 61 77 57 77 / 50 30 10 - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 74 61 77 59 75 / 50 20 10 - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 75 61 78 58 76 / 60 20 10 - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/09
000
FXUS64 KFWD 081749 AAA
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1149 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
A BAND OF IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF
SITES. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR FOR METRO SITES BY 21Z.
FOR WACO...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AFTER 21Z WITH LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS TO CONTINUE AT 10
KTS OR LESS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/
RATHER POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOW MOVING INTO THE BIG BEND
REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE.
MEANWHILE...HURRICANE IDA IS PASSING THROUGH THE YUCATAN STRAIT
AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. ANOTHER
BAROCLINIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ALSO INTENSIFYING IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF...AND WILL LIKELY MERGE WITH AND/OR ABSORB IDA
MONDAY NIGHT AS IDA NEARS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA. THE EFFECT OF
THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IN THE GULF HAS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO LIMIT QUALITY GULF MOISTURE RETURN INTO NORTH TEXAS. WHILE
FORCING FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS VERY IMPRESSIVE...LACK OF
MOISTURE IN THE CRITICAL LAYER FROM 600-850MB WILL LIMIT THE AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF ANY CONVECTION. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN
WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES TODAY...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES TONIGHT WHERE MOISTURE APPEARS SUFFICIENT. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ABOVE 500 MB WILL BE PLENTIFUL AS
SOUTHERLY JET MAX INTENSIFIES OVER THE REGION TODAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION AND STEEP LAPSE RATES AROUND 20000FT
OCCURRING...AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES OR
NON-MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.
THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND EXPECT SOME
GRADUAL CLEARING DURING THE DAY AS SUBSIDENCE SPREADS OVER THE
AREA. WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO BACK FROM THE EAST MONDAY TO THE
NORTH TUESDAY AS SPRAWLING SURFACE CYCLONE IN THE GULF INFLUENCES
THE CONTINENTAL PRESSURE PATTERN. THIS WILL BRING SOME COOLER AND
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH VERY NICE
WEATHER PREVAILING THROUGH LATE WEEK.
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT NORTH TEXAS BY
FRIDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BRINGING MOISTURE/CLOUDS BACK INTO
THE REGION. GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM...WITH
THE ECMWF SHOWING A SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER UPPER TROUGH. WILL
KEEP SOME LOW CHANCES OF RAIN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND FAVOR
THE ECMWF TIMING FOR FROPA AROUND SUNDAY.
TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 74 57 75 54 73 / 10 30 10 10 5
WACO, TX 74 56 74 51 73 / 30 50 10 10 5
PARIS, TX 74 54 73 53 73 / 10 30 10 10 5
DENTON, TX 74 57 75 50 73 / 10 30 10 10 5
MCKINNEY, TX 74 56 74 52 73 / 10 30 10 10 5
DALLAS, TX 74 57 75 53 73 / 10 30 10 10 5
TERRELL, TX 74 57 74 55 73 / 10 30 10 10 5
CORSICANA, TX 74 55 74 52 74 / 20 40 10 10 5
TEMPLE, TX 74 57 74 52 73 / 30 50 10 10 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLUB 081744
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1144 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.AVIATION...
LAYER OF MVFR STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS AROUND 20Z.
CHALLENGE IS DETERMINING HOW SOON STRATUS AND FOG RETURN TONIGHT
WITHIN THE ALREADY MOIST AIRMASS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR/IFR CIGS AS EARLY AS MIDNIGHT AT BOTH TERMINALS...BELIEVE
THE BEST WINDOW FOR REDUCED CIG/VIS WILL UNFOLD EARLY MONDAY MORNING
WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. ALTHOUGH VISBYS SHOULD
IMPROVE AFTER 09/15Z...LOW CIGS WILL LIKELY LINGER THRU 09/18Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 944 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/
UPDATE...
REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS AND AREA WEBCAMS REVEAL FOG HAS COMPLETELY
DISSIPATED...HOWEVER STRATUS IS PROVING MORE STUBBORN GIVEN
CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS
AND RUC DATA SUGGEST THIS LAYER WILL UNDERGO EROSION FROM WEST TO
EAST AS SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER MORE SWLY NEAR A SURFACE
TROF JUST WEST OF THE TX/NM STATE LINE. WOULD EXPECT AMPLE
SUNSHINE TO RETURN THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. SKY GRIDS AND
PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS TREND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 75 43 63 40 63 / 0 10 20 20 10
TULIA 76 45 67 43 64 / 0 10 20 20 10
PLAINVIEW 76 45 70 43 64 / 0 10 20 20 10
LEVELLAND 76 45 71 45 64 / 0 10 20 20 20
LUBBOCK 76 48 73 45 65 / 0 10 20 20 10
DENVER CITY 76 47 72 44 66 / 0 10 10 20 20
BROWNFIELD 76 46 73 45 66 / 0 10 20 20 20
CHILDRESS 77 52 74 45 66 / 0 10 20 20 10
SPUR 76 51 76 46 64 / 10 10 20 20 10
ASPERMONT 76 53 77 47 65 / 10 10 20 20 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
93
000
FXUS64 KCRP 081733
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1133 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSRAS WL PERSIST THROUGH
04Z THIS EVENING ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH TX. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS WL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE RAIN. WITHIN THE HEAVIER POCKETS
OF RAIN...IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. IFR CONDITIONS WL BCOME
MORE PREVALENT ONCE THE RAIN DIMINISHES TNT. A TRANSITION TO MVFR
CEILINGS WL OCCUR BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z MON AS MIXING OCCURS AND
ALLOWS DRIER AIR TO PENETRATE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1050 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/
DISCUSSION...KCRP RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW AN EXPANSION TO THE
PCPN COVERAGE THIS MORNING. THIS RADAR TREND WL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A POTENT MID/UPR S/WV MOVES FROM THE BIG
BEND RGN THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTN AND EVE. HIGH-BASED CONVECTION
HAS ALREADY BEEN EVIDENT WITH THIS FEATURE OVER NRN MEXICO AND
JUST NORTH OF COTULLA. AN ENHANCEMENT TO THE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WL INCREASE AS THE S/WV PUSHES EWD TDA AND ALLOWS
SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LVL TEMPS (-12 C) TO BE ADVECTED ACROSS THE CWA.
THE OVERALL CAPES WL LKLY REACH AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG THIS
AFTN/EVE. THE MORNING SOUTH TX SOUNDINGS INDICATED EXCELLENT
MOISTURE ADVECTION DUE TO DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW. THIS FLOW WAS
DRAWING IN TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN GULF
AND PULLING IT INTO THE CWA. AS A RESULT...THE CURRENT GOOD CHC TO
LKLY POPS LOOK VERY GOOD AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE.
THE CURRENT COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT STILL LOOKS GOOD AS THE TIDES
WERE ONLY RUNNING 0.5 TO 1.0 FEET ABV NORMAL. GIVEN THAT THE
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES HAVE ALREADY PEAKED AND THE WINDS WL BECOMING
MORE NORTHERLY WITH TIME...THE THREAT FOR COASTAL FLOODING WL BE
SMALL. THE PREVIOUS THINKING OF ONLY MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW IS STILL
VALID.
MARINE...THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE LOWER
MS RVR VLY AND A DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH AXIS LOCATED EAST OF THE
OFFSHORE WATERS WL PRODUCE A SLOWY INCREASING GRADIENT THROUGH
TNT. THE ACTUAL SFC LOW EAST OF TAMPICO MEXICO WL LKLY MOVE ONLY
SLIGHTLY NWD TDA. SEAS WERE CURRENTLY RUNNING 6-7 FT OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS AND THESE VALUES WL SLOWLY COME UP THROUGH TNT.
MODIFIED THE SCA TO NOW INCLUDE THE NEARSHORE WATERS BEGINNING
LATE THIS AFTN. MEANWHILE...HURRICANE IDA WL MOVE FROM THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF TDA AND INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF ON MON. NO DIRECT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM ACROSS
OUR WATERS. INDIRECTLY THIS STORM WL MAINTAIN THE LARGE SWELLS
OVER THE GULF WATERS FOR SVRL DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 79 63 81 60 81 / 70 30 10 0 0
VICTORIA 76 60 79 57 79 / 70 40 10 0 0
LAREDO 82 64 84 61 85 / 50 10 10 0 0
ALICE 79 62 82 58 83 / 70 20 10 0 0
ROCKPORT 78 67 80 62 80 / 70 40 10 0 0
COTULLA 78 60 82 56 83 / 50 10 10 0 0
KINGSVILLE 80 62 82 59 82 / 70 20 10 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 79 66 80 65 79 / 70 30 10 0 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM CST MONDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO
PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
MB
000
FXUS64 KAMA 081723 AAC
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1123 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.AVIATION...
EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...
REVEALING A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. THIS WILL
REMAIN THE PREVAILING CLOUD TYPE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS. WINDS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MAY BE A BIT LIGHTER GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE
SURFACE TROF. THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST IS THE COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE PALMER DIVIDE. THIS FRONT
WILL CONTINUE A SLOW...BUT STEADY...MOVEMENT TO THE SOUTH THROUGHOUT
THE TAF PERIOD. THIS COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS AROUND 03Z...BUT MAY BE PRECEDED BY A PREFRONTAL TROF/WIND
SHIFT BY A FEW HOURS.
LOW CIGS/VSBYS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BEYOND 08Z AT KDHT/KGUY. THE FORECAST IS A BIT MORE
COMPLICATED AT KAMA...WHERE PREFRONTAL LOW CIGS/FOG ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. VSBYS MAY FALL TO 1/2SM OR LOWER AT TIMES WITH
CORRESPONDING CIGS AT 200FT OR LESS BY 12Z. THIS WILL PERSIST FOR A
FEW HOURS AS THE FRONT PASSES...BUT CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO IFR CATEGORY BY MID MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE
RATHER LOW SO NO MENTION WILL BE MADE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
JOHNSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/
UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TX PANHANDLE THIS MORNING
SLOW TO BREAK. GIVEN LATEST MODEL RUNS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION...WILL HOLD ONTO THE LOW CLOUDS TIL AROUND 18Z TO 20Z
TODAY. EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO FINALLY BREAK FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TX PANHANDLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
ALSO...SFC DEW POINTS ADJUSTED TO MAKE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF CURRENT
TRENDS. DID LOWER MAX TEMPS TODAY JUST A BIT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX
PANHANDLE DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND HIGHER DEW POINTS...HOWEVER MAY NOT
HAVE BEEN LOWERED ENOUGH. IF LOW CLOUDS PERSIST LONGER THAN
EXPECTED...MAY NEED ANOTHER UPDATE TO LOWER MAX TEMPS EVEN FURTHER.
ADJUSTED FIRE WEATHER GRIDS...MIN RH...20 FT WINDS...AND SMOKE
MANAGEMENT WITH THIS UPDATE AND LATEST DATA.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED WITH THIS UPDATE. ALL PUBLIC AND
FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS UPDATED AND SENT.
SCHNEIDER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 540 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/
AVIATION...
IFR CIGS CURRENTLY SW OF AMA MAY MAKE BRIEF APPEARANCE AT AMA
TERMINAL THIS MRNG. WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE FOR SAME IF NECESSARY.
OTHERWISE...HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO THICKEN TDA AND TNGT...WITH SSWLY
SFC WINDS GUSTING AT OR ABOVE 20 KT MOST OF TDA. SSELY SFC WINDS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TNGT...WITH WIND SHIFT ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL REACH NRN TAF SITES AROUND 07Z MON AND AMA AROUND 11Z MON. IFR
CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS IN BR EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH FROPA.
COCKRELL
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES TODAY. AS A RESULT...1000-500MB THICKNESS
VALUES DECREASE OVER THE PANHANDLES AND COOLER AIR FILTERS IN INTO
THE LOWER LEVELS. SHOULD STILL SEE SOUTH WINDS FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAY...ALLOWING HIGH TEMPS TO INCREASE INTO THE MID 70S. NEXT
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT...THEN ENTER THE AREA
MONDAY. CURRENTLY EXPECTING THE FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH ALL BY THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES BY MID DAY. ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER AND COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA...WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 IN THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE.
ALSO...DEW POINTS ARE STEADILY INCREASING ACROSS THE CWA SO EXPECT LL
MOISTURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE ON MONDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ON MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES...BUT GENERALLY ANTICIPATE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA. DID
KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE THE FRONTAL
FORCING COMBINED WITH THE LIMITED INSTABILITY MAY TRIGGER A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES. ALSO...KEPT MENTION OF PATCHY MORNING FOG ON
MONDAY.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING RETURNS ON TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS INTO
ZONAL FLOW BY THURSDAY. EXPECT A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY.
BUMPED UP HIGH TEMPS FROM GUIDANCE ON THURSDAY AS MODEL PROG A
DEEPENING LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH AND STRONG SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPING
WINDS. SO THOUGHT MID 70S WERE APPROPRIATE. STILL SOME CONCERN ON THE
TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONT. GFS CONTINUES TO RUN 12 HOURS OR SO FASTER
THAN THE EURO. SO FRIDAY TEMPS ARE STILL A CONCERN. CURRENTLY BROUGHT
THE FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES BY 18Z...THEN THROUGH THE ENTIRE
AREA LATER ON MONDAY. LOWERED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT KEPT THE MENTION OF SHOWERS IN FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD REMAIN LOW THROUGH MID WEEK. COOLER AIR
AND INCREASING SURFACE MOISTURE EXPECTED TODAY WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLE ON MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN.
WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY WHICH MAY PROVIDE
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
24/11
000
FXUS64 KCRP 081650
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1050 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...KCRP RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW AN EXPANSION TO THE
PCPN COVERAGE THIS MORNING. THIS RADAR TREND WL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A POTENT MID/UPR S/WV MOVES FROM THE BIG
BEND RGN THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTN AND EVE. HIGH-BASED CONVECTION
HAS ALREADY BEEN EVIDENT WITH THIS FEATURE OVER NRN MEXICO AND
JUST NORTH OF COTULLA. AN ENHANCEMENT TO THE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WL INCREASE AS THE S/WV PUSHES EWD TDA AND ALLOWS
SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LVL TEMPS (-12 C) TO BE ADVECTED ACROSS THE CWA.
THE OVERALL CAPES WL LKLY REACH AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG THIS
AFTN/EVE. THE MORNING SOUTH TX SOUNDINGS INDICATED EXCELLENT
MOISTURE ADVECTION DUE TO DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW. THIS FLOW WAS
DRAWING IN TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN GULF
AND PULLING IT INTO THE CWA. AS A RESULT...THE CURRENT GOOD CHC TO
LKLY POPS LOOK VERY GOOD AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE.
THE CURRENT COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT STILL LOOKS GOOD AS THE TIDES
WERE ONLY RUNNING 0.5 TO 1.0 FEET ABV NORMAL. GIVEN THAT THE
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES HAVE ALREADY PEAKED AND THE WINDS WL BECOMING
MORE NORTHERLY WITH TIME...THE THREAT FOR COASTAL FLOODING WL BE
SMALL. THE PREVIOUS THINKING OF ONLY MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW IS STILL
VALID.
&&
.MARINE...THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE LOWER
MS RVR VLY AND A DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH AXIS LOCATED EAST OF THE
OFFSHORE WATERS WL PRODUCE A SLOWY INCREASING GRADIENT THROUGH
TNT. THE ACTUAL SFC LOW EAST OF TAMPICO MEXICO WL LKLY MOVE ONLY
SLIGHTLY NWD TDA. SEAS WERE CURRENTLY RUNNING 6-7 FT OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS AND THESE VALUES WL SLOWLY COME UP THROUGH TNT.
MODIFIED THE SCA TO NOW INCLUDE THE NEARSHORE WATERS BEGINNING
LATE THIS AFTN. MEANWHILE...HURRICANE IDA WL MOVE FROM THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF TDA AND INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF ON MON. NO DIRECT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM ACROSS
OUR WATERS. INDIRECTLY THIS STORM WL MAINTAIN THE LARGE SWELLS
OVER THE GULF WATERS FOR SVRL DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 79 63 81 60 81 / 70 30 10 0 0
VICTORIA 76 60 79 57 79 / 70 40 10 0 0
LAREDO 82 64 84 61 85 / 50 10 10 0 0
ALICE 79 62 82 58 83 / 70 20 10 0 0
ROCKPORT 78 67 80 62 80 / 70 40 10 0 0
COTULLA 78 60 82 56 83 / 50 10 10 0 0
KINGSVILLE 80 62 82 59 82 / 70 20 10 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 79 66 80 65 79 / 70 30 10 0 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM CST MONDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO
PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
MB
000
FXUS64 KHGX 081620
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1020 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...
12Z MODEL SUITE NOT SHOWING MUCH DIFFERENCE AS TO WHAT IS ALREADY
COVERED IN THE CURRENT FCST. SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
AND INCREASING MOISTURE HEADED IN FROM THE S SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
PROVIDE FOR SOME SCT PRECIP TODAY. ONLY TWEAK TO THE FCST WAS TO
BUMP POPS UP INTO LIKELY TERRITORY FOR SW PORTIONS AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST & OFFSHORE. COULD BE SOME ISOLATED STRONG STORMS
OFFSHORE TODAY. WILL WATCH TEMPS FOR A WHILE AS CLOUDS SHOULD
LIMIT HEATING BUT WHERE TEMPORARY BREAKS DO OCCUR HIGHS WILL BE A
BIT HIGHER. 47
&&
.MARINE...
SUSTAINED 17-19 KNOTS AT THE 42035 AND 42019 THIS MORNING AND WITH
THE ELONGATED SURFACE LOW WEST OF 42055 IN THE SW GULF MOVING NORTH
AM EXPECTING THE EASTERLY GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN UP MORE. HAVE EXPANDED
THE SCA TO GLS BAY NOW AND BROUGHT IT IN THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MATAGORDA BAY. SOME INDICATIONS OF THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS IN
THE COASTAL WATERS...SO ADDED MENTION OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON TO CURRENT CWF.
TIDES PEAKED NEAR 3 FEET ON THIS HIGH TIDE CYCLE AND SHOULD
COMFORTABLY REACH EXPECTED TIDE LEVELS IN COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR
GALVESTON ISLAND AND BOLIVAR. 45
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 76 62 77 57 80 / 40 30 20 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 76 64 77 58 79 / 40 50 30 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 74 67 73 63 77 / 60 50 50 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST MONDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: GALVESTON BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMAF 081612
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1012 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATE TO LOWER POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND ADJUST TEMPERATURES...SKY
AND WINDS. THE LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION ALSO INCLUDED.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
FOG WAS DISSIPATING AS WERE LOW CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH SLOWLY OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN.
STILL SHOULD SEE MARKED IMPROVEMENT IN THE NEXT HOUR. THINK ONLY
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL STILL
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE BIG BEND
REGION TO THE LOWER TRANS PECOS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH AS THE UPPER
TROUGH PROVIDING THE LIFT IS WEAKENING...AND HEADING EAST. HAVE
TWEAKED SKY COVER...TEMPERATURES AND WINDS AND WILL SEND AN UPDATE
SHORTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15KT DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10KT
THIS EVENING FROM THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT AND AFFECT MOST TAF SITES BY 09/12Z. FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP
AND THINK VISIBILITIES ILL DROP TO MVFR...IF NOT IFR AT MOST SITES.
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
67/21
000
FXUS64 KAMA 081558 AAB
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
958 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TX PANHANDLE THIS MORNING
SLOW TO BREAK. GIVEN LATEST MODEL RUNS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION...WILL HOLD ONTO THE LOW CLOUDS TIL AROUND 18Z TO 20Z
TODAY. EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO FINALLY BREAK FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TX PANHANDLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
ALSO...SFC DEW POINTS ADJUSTED TO MAKE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF CURRENT
TRENDS. DID LOWER MAX TEMPS TODAY JUST A BIT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX
PANHANDLE DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND HIGHER DEW POINTS...HOWEVER MAY NOT
HAVE BEEN LOWERED ENOUGH. IF LOW CLOUDS PERSIST LONGER THAN
EXPECTED...MAY NEED ANOTHER UPDATE TO LOWER MAX TEMPS EVEN FURTHER.
ADJUSTED FIRE WEATHER GRIDS...MIN RH...20 FT WINDS...AND SMOKE
MANAGEMENT WITH THIS UPDATE AND LATEST DATA.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED WITH THIS UPDATE. ALL PUBLIC AND
FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS UPDATED AND SENT.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 540 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/
AVIATION...
IFR CIGS CURRENTLY SW OF AMA MAY MAKE BRIEF APPEARANCE AT AMA
TERMINAL THIS MRNG. WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE FOR SAME IF NECESSARY.
OTHERWISE...HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO THICKEN TDA AND TNGT...WITH SSWLY
SFC WINDS GUSTING AT OR ABOVE 20 KT MOST OF TDA. SSELY SFC WINDS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TNGT...WITH WIND SHIFT ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL REACH NRN TAF SITES AROUND 07Z MON AND AMA AROUND 11Z MON. IFR
CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS IN BR EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH FROPA.
COCKRELL
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES TODAY. AS A RESULT...1000-500MB THICKNESS
VALUES DECREASE OVER THE PANHANDLES AND COOLER AIR FILTERS IN INTO
THE LOWER LEVELS. SHOULD STILL SEE SOUTH WINDS FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAY...ALLOWING HIGH TEMPS TO INCREASE INTO THE MID 70S. NEXT
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT...THEN ENTER THE AREA
MONDAY. CURRENTLY EXPECTING THE FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH ALL BY THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES BY MID DAY. ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER AND COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA...WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 IN THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE.
ALSO...DEW POINTS ARE STEADILY INCREASING ACROSS THE CWA SO EXPECT LL
MOISTURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE ON MONDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ON MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES...BUT GENERALLY ANTICIPATE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA. DID
KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE THE FRONTAL
FORCING COMBINED WITH THE LIMITED INSTABILITY MAY TRIGGER A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES. ALSO...KEPT MENTION OF PATCHY MORNING FOG ON
MONDAY.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING RETURNS ON TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS INTO
ZONAL FLOW BY THURSDAY. EXPECT A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY.
BUMPED UP HIGH TEMPS FROM GUIDANCE ON THURSDAY AS MODEL PROG A
DEEPENING LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH AND STRONG SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPING
WINDS. SO THOUGHT MID 70S WERE APPROPRIATE. STILL SOME CONCERN ON THE
TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONT. GFS CONTINUES TO RUN 12 HOURS OR SO FASTER
THAN THE EURO. SO FRIDAY TEMPS ARE STILL A CONCERN. CURRENTLY BROUGHT
THE FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES BY 18Z...THEN THROUGH THE ENTIRE
AREA LATER ON MONDAY. LOWERED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT KEPT THE MENTION OF SHOWERS IN FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD REMAIN LOW THROUGH MID WEEK. COOLER AIR
AND INCREASING SURFACE MOISTURE EXPECTED TODAY WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLE ON MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN.
WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY WHICH MAY PROVIDE
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
24/11
000
FXUS64 KSJT 081551
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
951 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.UPDATE...
INCREASES POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST SECTIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HILL COUNTRY THIS MORNING. 12Z
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS POCKET OF COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES THIS AFTERNOON
AND HAVE RAISED POPS TO LOW END CHANCE OVER THIS AREA. SHEAR WILL
BE WEAK SO ORGANIZED CONVECTION NOT EXPECTED BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER GIVEN THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES.
NO OTHER CHANGES MADE THIS UPDATE.
&&
AVIATION... LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING ACROSS
MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ISOLD SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...AND HAVE
VCSH IN THE KJCT...KSOA AND KBBD TERMINALS AFTER 20Z TODAY.
21
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/
SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO...AND WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS WERE MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING. THE LOW CLOUDS
WILL BE AROUND THROUGH THIS MORNING...THEN DISSIPATE THIS
AFTERNOON. LEE TROF JUST EAST OF THE ROCKY MTNS WILL KEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW GOING TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY A
FEW DEGREES COOLER DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH SLGT CHC POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWFA
TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE
ALONG WEAK UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. ALSO...KEEPING ISOLD TSTMS DUE TO
SOME WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. WILL DROP THE SLGT CHC POPS AFTER
06Z TONIGHT...HOWEVER PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT.
LONG TERM...
FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE AREA MONDAY MORNING.
WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG AND LIGHT DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW NEAR
THE SURFACE KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING TOO QUICKLY...AND
ALLOWING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SATURATION BELOW 900MB CONTINUING
INTO THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE KEPT MONDAY DRY OTHERWISE. WILL KEEP
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT GOING AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. BEST CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE NORTHWEST
OF OUR CWA WHERE SOME UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL LIFT
AND RAIN CHANCES. ON TUESDAY...WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUD
COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION...IT WILL BE RATHER WEAK...SO HAVE
BUMPED HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES.
A RIDGE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH LITTLE CHANCE
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 74 55 75 48 68 / 10 10 10 20 10
SAN ANGELO 75 54 75 47 70 / 20 10 10 10 10
JUNCTION 73 52 76 48 74 / 30 20 10 10 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99
000
FXUS64 KBRO 081550
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
950 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS OUR ADJACENT GULF OF
MEXICO WATERS THIS MRNG. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH ONSHORE
THRU THE AFTN HRS. TROF OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE IN
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DEEP SOUTH TX
WITH CLD COVER AND SHRA ACTIVITY THRU THIS EVE. HOWEVER..THIS
SYSTEM WILL BECOME MORE INFLUENCED WITH TIME BY HURRICANE IDA. IDA
IS FCST TO MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LATER TDA. OVERALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT
TROF WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THE GENERAL CIRCULATION OF IDA. MOST OF
THE ENERGY AND ATTENTION WILL THEN BE FOCUSED TWD THE STRONGER
SYSTEM AS THE HURRICANE PUSHES NWD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TWD THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. RAINFALL CHC ANTICIPATED TO QUICKLY DIMINISH
OVRNGT INTO MON WITH ANY LEFTOVER SHRAS REMAINING OFFSHORE ON MON.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ANTICIPATED TO TIGHTEN AS EASTERLY WINDS
BACK TO THE NE AND N THRU MON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN OFFSHORE THRU THIS TIME WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS CONFINED TO
INLAND COASTAL LOCATIONS. NO CHANGES PLANNED ATTM TO THE GOING
FCST.
&&
.AVIATION...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE...BRINGING MVFR
PERIODICALLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...THIS MORNING BUOY 42020 REPORTED EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
16 GUSTS TO 18 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 7 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 9 SECONDS.
LARGE SWELLS FROM DEVELOPING HURRICANE IDA WILL APPROACH THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST TODAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS EAST OF PADRE
ISLAND TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE LARGE SWELLS. MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE SWELLS RAPIDLY
SUBSIDE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 301 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/...SHOWERS
FROM THE SOUTH ARE MOVING UP INTO THE MARINE AREAS THIS MORNING. A
BAND OF THOSE SHOWERS MOVED OVER BROWNSVILLE LAST EVENING. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A TROUGH OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
IN THE WEST GULF MOVES UNDER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND INTO TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TODAY.
AFTER TODAY...CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO CONSOLIDATE IN THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO AS RECENTLY UPGRADED HURRICANE IDA MOVES SLOWLY TO
THE NORTH. A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON
MONDAY...WITH WEAK RIDGING UPSTREAM OVER WEST TEXAS. LOCAL WEATHER
WILL THEREFORE BE SEASONAL WITH IDA WELL TO THE EAST IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH CLOUDS AND HIGH BEACH SURF WITH MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING MAY BE THE ONLY SIGN OF IDA EVIDENT LOCALLY.
AS IDA ACCELERATES NORTH AND NORTHEAST DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PART OF THIS WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS WILL PUSH SOUTH
INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY...
AND THEN MID LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE ON
TOP OF US BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MILD DECREASE IN
TEMPS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES OR SO AND CLEAR SKIES AS COOLER AND
DRIER AIR SETTLES IN. TEMPS WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
HOWEVER.
DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST.
MODEL INITIALIZATION WAS GOOD...AS WAS RUN TO RUN GRID CONSISTENCY
AND INTER OFFICE GRID CONSISTENCY. FRESHENED UP ALL THE GRIDS WITH
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO THE FORECAST.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE
COMING WEEK. THIS COULD HAVE THE EFFECT OF DRAWING MOISTURE IN
FROM THE GULF...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LOCALLY ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE WEAK HOWEVER...AND WILL STALL OUT
OVER CENTRAL TEXAS OVER NEXT WEEKEND. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY THE FOLLOWING
WEEK...LEADING TO A BACK DOOR FRONT AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
MARINE...BUOY 42020 REPORTED EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS GUSTING
TO AROUND 14 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY OVER 6 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF
9 SECONDS AT 02 CST/08 UTC. LARGE SWELLS FROM DEVELOPING HURRICANE
IDA WILL APPROACH THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TODAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THIS WEEK. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF
MEXICO WATERS EAST OF PADRE ISLAND TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE
LARGE SWELLS. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS THE SWELLS RAPIDLY SUBSIDE.
AVIATION...THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT VISIBILITIES THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 81 69 83 64 / 50 10 10 0
BROWNSVILLE 82 68 85 62 / 50 10 10 0
HARLINGEN 83 66 84 60 / 40 10 10 0
MCALLEN 84 67 89 62 / 40 10 10 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 84 64 88 59 / 30 10 10 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 78 68 83 68 / 60 10 10 0
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR TXZ251-256-257.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ251-
256-257.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
175.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...57-VIPOND
MARINE/AVIATION...58-PHILO
MESOSCALE/FXC...69-HART
000
FXUS64 KLUB 081544 AAA
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
944 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.UPDATE...
REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS AND AREA WEBCAMS REVEAL FOG HAS COMPLETELY
DISSIPATED...HOWEVER STRATUS IS PROVING MORE STUBBORN GIVEN
CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS
AND RUC DATA SUGGEST THIS LAYER WILL UNDERGO EROSION FROM WEST TO
EAST AS SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER MORE SWLY NEAR A SURFACE
TROF JUST WEST OF THE TX/NM STATE LINE. WOULD EXPECT AMPLE
SUNSHINE TO RETURN THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. SKY GRIDS AND
PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS TREND.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/
AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE KLBB SITE THIS MORNING AS RAPID
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. KCDS WILL BE
SPARED THIS MORNING BUT LOW CIGS AND VISBYS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TOMORROW
MORNING NEAR KCDS WITH LESS CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRENCE AT KLBB
ALTHOUGH MVFR IS STILL EXPECTED AT THE KLBB TERMINAL. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY WILL ONLY AFFECT
THE REGION WITH INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/
SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS
WILL REMAIN AS AN OPEN WAVE AS THE TROUGH PASSES OVER THE AREA
TODAY. HOWEVER...MOST ENERGY FROM THIS SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF THE FA WITH A LARGE AMOUNT OF LARGE SCALE FORCING ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY
WITH ONLY A MINIMAL AMOUNT OF LIFT AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THERE
WILL BE SOME STRONGER SURFACE INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 1000
J/KG BUT BELIEVE THIS WILL NOT BE REALIZED WITH THE LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND AGAIN
TODAY WITH SUSTAINED HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE FA. POSSIBLE FOGGY
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP TOMORROW MORNING FAVORING AREAS OFF THE
CAPROCK THOUGH MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT MAY
ON THE DOORSTEP OF THE FA BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW MORNING. JDV
LONG TERM...
MOIST BUT WEAK SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY AGAIN LEAD TO
AREAS OF STRATUS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH IN THE AREA. UPSTREAM...WE CONTINUE TO WATCH A SHORTWAVE
THAT IS NOW ABOUT TO MOVE ONTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST TO MOVE OUT
ACROSS THE ROCKIES EARLY MONDAY AND OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AS UPSTREAM FLOW BUCKLES SLIGHTLY. THIS
IS STILL EXPECTED TO SEND A MODEST PACIFIC COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY.
SOME DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH TIMING...WRF/NAM REMAINS A BIT SLOWER
WITH THIS FRONT BUT IS IN THE VICINITY OF WHERE MODEL TRENDS SEEM
TO BE LEADING. HOW MUCH STRATUS MIGHT HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN ON
MONDAY IS UNCLEAR...THOUGH WEAK SOUTHEAST COMPONENT AND ELEVATED
DEW-POINTS IN THE 40S OR LOWER 50S WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME.
STILL...HAVE SIDED WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE MOST GUIDANCE
UNTIL FRONT ACTUALLY SLIPS PAST MOST OF THE AREA MIDDAY OR
AFTERNOON. SLIGHT INSTABILITY ALSO REMAINS IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS
OVER NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS SO WILL HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDER THAT AREA WITH LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES OTHERWISE SPREADING
SOUTHWARD LATE MONDAY...AS WELL AS POSSIBLE FOG/DRIZZLE MONDAY
NIGHT.
IMPROVING AND WARMING STILL LOOKS ON TRACK MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH
TRENDS APPEARING SLOWER NOW WITH WHATEVER FORM OF SPLIT ENERGY WILL
MOVE INTO OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY WITH
COOLING UNTIL SATURDAY...WHILE RETAINING LOW SHOWER CHANCES THEN AS
WELL. TRENDS AT LEAST SUGGEST BULK OF ENERGY WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH
AGAIN...WITH PERHAPS LESS AMPLIFICATION OF TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST.
RMCQUEEN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 75 43 63 40 63 / 0 10 20 20 10
TULIA 76 45 67 43 64 / 0 10 20 20 10
PLAINVIEW 76 45 70 43 64 / 0 10 20 20 10
LEVELLAND 76 45 71 45 64 / 0 10 20 20 20
LUBBOCK 76 48 73 45 65 / 0 10 20 20 10
DENVER CITY 76 47 72 44 66 / 0 10 10 20 20
BROWNFIELD 76 46 73 45 66 / 0 10 20 20 20
CHILDRESS 77 52 74 45 66 / 0 10 20 20 10
SPUR 76 51 76 46 64 / 10 10 20 20 10
ASPERMONT 76 53 77 47 65 / 10 10 20 20 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
93/20
000
FXUS64 KEWX 081537
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
937 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.UPDATE...
TO ADD FOG IN THE NORTHEAST AND RAISE POPS IN THE WEST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
FOG HAS FORMED IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES AND UNTIL THE RAIN
STARTS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO LIFT WITH CLOUDS ABOVE IT. ADDED FOG
ALONG AND EAST OF I35 FROM COMAL TO WILLIAMSON COUNTIES.
CONVECTION IS CROSSING THE RIO GRANDE AND MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH
INTO DIMMIT AND FRIO COUNTIES. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES. CONVECTION WILL SHIFT TO THE
EAST THIS AFTERNOON...SO HAVE LEFT LOWER POPS IN THE WEST AFTER
18Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/
AVIATION...
LIFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO MVFR LATE THIS
MORNING INTO VFR THIS AFTERNOON, THEN LOWER BACK TO IFR/MVFR
TONIGHT. SCT TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. HAVE GONE VCSH/VCTS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF
IMPACTS TO THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS AND
MAINLY E TO SE TODAY AND THEN BECOME N TO NE OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/
DISCUSSION...
PATCHY FOG WAS SLOW TO GET GOING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
MORNING WITH A NEAR SOLID LAYER OF STRATUS FORMING IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASED SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND THE APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT. MORNING RADAR LOOPS SHOW AREAS OF WEAK LIFT
MOVING UP THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE AND SOME
STRONGER ACTIVITY MOVING ONSHORE NEAR CRP. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
BEGIN TO ENTER SOUTH CENTRAL TX COUNTIES FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH
BY AROUND DAYBREAK WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN SETTING UP OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY. HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS LOW DUE TO THE LACK OF EXPECTED SURFACE HEATING AND
THE GENERAL WEAKENING TREND OF THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE ALOFT.
RAINFALL POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO LOOK MAINLY BELOW ONE-QUARTER INCH
WITH SPOTTY TOTALS OF ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH. ISOLATED STRONG CELLS
MAY DEVELOP BRIEFLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE OF CLEARING WHEN THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO
THE AREA.
RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WITH MODEL
DATA SHOWING DRY AND SUBSIDENT FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT. IF AREAS OF
SIGNIFICANT RAIN DEVELOP TODAY, LATER FORECAST PACKAGES MAY NEED
TO CONSIDER PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. NE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE
TUESDAY TO REMOVE A GOOD PERCENTAGE OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE;
THIS PROCESSED COULD BE ENHANCED WITH TRENDS IN THE OF THE TRACK
OF IDA OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE HYBRID UPPER TROUGH/TROPICAL
SYSTEM WILL PULL A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US SOUTH INTO
THE AREA, BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SKIES
CLEARING FOR LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
LATE PERIODS SHOW SOME UNCERTAINTY IN RESPONSE TO A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC. A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG
OVER THE WRN US LATE IN THE WEEK WITH MODELS SHOWING POOR
AGREEMENT ON LOCATION AND TIMING. SOME REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD REMAIN POOLED OVER THE WESTERN GULF TO RETURN QUICKLY WHEN
SOUTHERLIES BEGIN TO PICK UP LATE THURSDAY. THIS WOULD TRANSLATE
TO A DAMPENING OF DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES LATE NEXT WEEK AND
INCREASING RAIN POTENTIAL FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 73 61 77 60 75 / 50 20 10 10 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 74 60 76 57 75 / 50 20 10 - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 74 60 76 56 75 / 60 20 10 - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 72 59 74 55 71 / 40 20 10 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 76 61 78 58 76 / 40 10 - - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 73 59 75 57 74 / 40 20 10 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 75 60 77 57 76 / 50 20 - - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 74 60 76 57 75 / 60 20 10 - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 75 61 77 57 77 / 50 30 10 - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 74 61 77 59 75 / 50 20 10 - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 75 61 78 58 76 / 60 20 10 - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/09
000
FXUS64 KCRP 081203 AAA
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
603 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...TRICKY TAF FORECAST TO TRY TO GET INTO FIVE PERIODS AS
FIRST DEALING WITH POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND LOW CIGS...THEN TIMING OF
THUNDER WITH LOWER CIGS...THEN CONVECTION ENDING BUT CIGS
RETURNING OVERNIGHT...THEN POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG BEFORE END OF
TAF FORECAST PERIOD. RADAR SHOWING SHOWER ACTIVITY HEADING TOWARD
KVCT SO SHOWERS SHOULD BE THERE BY 14Z AND CONTINUE FOR MOST OF
THE MORNING...WITH MVFR CIGS FORECAST... FARTHER SOUTH...RAINFALL
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY 15Z AREA WIDE AS IMPACTS OF
UPPER LOW COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASED INSTABILITY.
INITIALLY HAVE TEMPO SHRAS WITH MVFR CIGS FOR KALI AND KCRP TIL
AROUND 18Z...THEN SWITCH TO TEMPO THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH
21Z...AND PROB30 AT KCRP AFTER 21Z (TIL EVENING) AS CLOSER TO THE
COAST/BETTER MOISTURE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AND STILL COULD HAVE
IMPACTS OF UPPER SYSTEM. SHOWER/THUNDER FORECAST WILL LAST LONGEST
AT KVCT (AND NO THUNDER AT KLRD AS TOO STABLE TO MENTION BUT
COULD NOT RULE IT OUT). PRETTY MUCH SHUTTING THE RAIN OFF BY 02Z
AREA-WIDE BUT THEN MVFR CIGS RETURN BY 07Z EAST OF KLRD AND BY
09Z AT KLRD...WITH MVFR BR AT KALI (AND POSSIBLE IFR CIGS) AND
KVCT AS WEAK NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...ACTIVITY ALREADY IN GULFMEX
AS UPPER SUPPORT MOVES IN ALONG WITH BETTER MOISTURE...SO
SHOWERS/STORMS LIKELY TODAY MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWFA. MAIN ISSUE IS HOW LONG TO KEEP THE RAIN IN FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AS MODELS DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM...I.E...HOW LONG WILL UPPER SYSTEM IMPACT THE AREA. IR
VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING UPPER TROUGH MOVING RATHER READILY INTO
WEST TEXAS AND THUS THINK GFS IS HANDLING THIS SYSTEM A BIT BETTER.
ALSO...NAM IS A BIT TOO SLOW WITH SURFACE TROUGH AND WAS KEEPING
STRONGER THETA-E ADVECTION OVER THE AREA LONGER...06Z NAM SEEMS TO
BE LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR
THE EVENING FOR THE COASTAL AREAS (HIGHEST OVER THE
NORTHEAST)...THEN NOT MENTION ANY RAIN FOR MONDAY DESPITE HIGH NAM
MOS POPS. ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE RATHER READILY SO HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE BRIEF AND DID NOT MENTION IN THE ZONES. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE NORTHEAST TONIGHT THEN NORTH MONDAY AS TROUGH MOVES
NORTH AND IDA MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WELL AWAY FROM CWFA
AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO. GENERALLY STAYED ON THE COOL SIDE OR
BELOW GUIDANCE TODAY FOR RAIN-COOLED AIR...COOL SIDE TONIGHT THEN
WARM SIDE FOR MONDAY AS EXPECT SOME SUN TO COME OUT BY THE
AFTERNOON AND NNW FLOW COULD HELP WARM THINGS UP.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...WILL MAINTAIN COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT
FOR HIGH SURFACE/MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW. LEVELS HAVE REMAINED JUST
BELOW 2 FEET MSL AT BOB HALL PIER AND BELIEVE THAT ALTHOUGH LEVELS
WILL LIKELY GET ABOVE TO 2 FEET LATER TODAY...WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BELOW 2.5 FEET SO STILL EXPECT MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW.
MARINE (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...HAVE ISSUED SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS AS SEAS AROUND 7 FEET AT THE OUTER ENDS OF THE MARINE CWFA
AS SEAS 7 FEET AT BOY020. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
NEXT TWO DAYS AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND AS IDA ENTERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. FOR THE NEARSHORE...SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW 7 FEET TODAY
BUT SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR TONIGHT. NUMEROUS CONVECTION
TODAY...MORE SCATTERED TONIGHT AND ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR MONDAY
MORNING AS EXPECT SLOW DRYING TO OCCUR AND AREA WILL BE ON THE
SUBSIDENT SIDE OF UPPER TROUGH.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST AND ALLOWS RIDGING TO BEGIN OVER THE REGION.
THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO KEEP IDA OUT OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL ALSO INCREASE SUBSIDENCE AND
KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER
AIR INTO SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ONSHORE FLOW THEN
DEVELOPS AND INCREASES MOISTURE TO THE REGION BY FRIDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. KEPT THE MENTION OF ISOLATED PRECIP FOR
SATURDAY/SUNDAY AS NEXT TROUGH SKIRTS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS.
HOWEVER...MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS NEXT FEATURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 79 63 81 60 81 / 70 30 10 0 0
VICTORIA 75 60 79 57 79 / 70 40 10 0 0
LAREDO 82 64 84 61 85 / 30 10 10 0 0
ALICE 81 62 82 58 83 / 60 20 10 0 0
ROCKPORT 78 67 80 62 80 / 70 40 10 0 0
COTULLA 78 60 82 56 83 / 40 10 10 0 0
KINGSVILLE 80 62 82 59 82 / 70 20 10 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 79 66 80 65 79 / 70 30 10 0 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
GW/86...SHORT TERM/AVIATION
RG/82...LONG TERM
000
FXUS64 KEWX 081147
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
547 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.AVIATION...
LIFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO MVFR LATE THIS
MORNING INTO VFR THIS AFTERNOON, THEN LOWER BACK TO IFR/MVFR
TONIGHT. SCT TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. HAVE GONE VCSH/VCTS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF
IMPACTS TO THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS AND
MAINLY E TO SE TODAY AND THEN BECOME N TO NE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/
DISCUSSION...
PATCHY FOG WAS SLOW TO GET GOING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
MORNING WITH A NEAR SOLID LAYER OF STRATUS FORMING IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASED SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND THE APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT. MORNING RADAR LOOPS SHOW AREAS OF WEAK LIFT
MOVING UP THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE AND SOME
STRONGER ACTIVITY MOVING ONSHORE NEAR CRP. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
BEGIN TO ENTER SOUTH CENTRAL TX COUNTIES FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH
BY AROUND DAYBREAK WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN SETTING UP OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY. HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS LOW DUE TO THE LACK OF EXPECTED SURFACE HEATING AND
THE GENERAL WEAKENING TREND OF THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE ALOFT.
RAINFALL POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO LOOK MAINLY BELOW ONE-QUARTER INCH
WITH SPOTTY TOTALS OF ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH. ISOLATED STRONG CELLS
MAY DEVELOP BRIEFLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE OF CLEARING WHEN THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO
THE AREA.
RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WITH MODEL
DATA SHOWING DRY AND SUBSIDENT FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT. IF AREAS OF
SIGNIFICANT RAIN DEVELOP TODAY, LATER FORECAST PACKAGES MAY NEED
TO CONSIDER PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. NE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE
TUESDAY TO REMOVE A GOOD PERCENTAGE OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE;
THIS PROCESSED COULD BE ENHANCED WITH TRENDS IN THE OF THE TRACK
OF IDA OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE HYBRID UPPER TROUGH/TROPICAL
SYSTEM WILL PULL A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US SOUTH INTO
THE AREA, BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SKIES
CLEARING FOR LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
LATE PERIODS SHOW SOME UNCERTAINTY IN RESPONSE TO A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC. A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG
OVER THE WRN US LATE IN THE WEEK WITH MODELS SHOWING POOR
AGREEMENT ON LOCATION AND TIMING. SOME REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD REMAIN POOLED OVER THE WESTERN GULF TO RETURN QUICKLY WHEN
SOUTHERLIES BEGIN TO PICK UP LATE THURSDAY. THIS WOULD TRANSLATE
TO A DAMPENING OF DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES LATE NEXT WEEK AND
INCREASING RAIN POTENTIAL FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 73 61 77 60 75 / 50 20 10 10 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 74 60 76 57 75 / 50 20 10 - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 74 60 76 56 75 / 60 20 10 - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 72 59 74 55 71 / 40 20 10 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 76 61 78 58 76 / 20 10 - - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 73 59 75 57 74 / 40 20 10 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 75 60 77 57 76 / 50 20 - - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 74 60 76 57 75 / 60 20 10 - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 75 61 77 57 77 / 50 30 10 - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 74 61 77 59 75 / 50 20 10 - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 75 61 78 58 76 / 60 20 10 - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
18/04
000
FXUS64 KLUB 081146
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
546 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE KLBB SITE THIS MORNING AS RAPID
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. KCDS WILL BE
SPARED THIS MORNING BUT LOW CIGS AND VISBYS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TOMORROW
MORNING NEAR KCDS WITH LESS CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRENCE AT KLBB
ALTHOUGH MVFR IS STILL EXPECTED AT THE KLBB TERMINAL. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY WILL ONLY AFFECT
THE REGION WITH INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/
SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS
WILL REMAIN AS AN OPEN WAVE AS THE TROUGH PASSES OVER THE AREA
TODAY. HOWEVER...MOST ENERGY FROM THIS SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF THE FA WITH A LARGE AMOUNT OF LARGE SCALE FORCING ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY
WITH ONLY A MINIMAL AMOUNT OF LIFT AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THERE
WILL BE SOME STRONGER SURFACE INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 1000
J/KG BUT BELIEVE THIS WILL NOT BE REALIZED WITH THE LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND AGAIN
TODAY WITH SUSTAINED HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE FA. POSSIBLE FOGGY
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP TOMORROW MORNING FAVORING AREAS OFF THE
CAPROCK THOUGH MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT MAY
ON THE DOORSTEP OF THE FA BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW MORNING. JDV
LONG TERM...
MOIST BUT WEAK SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY AGAIN LEAD TO
AREAS OF STRATUS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH IN THE AREA. UPSTREAM...WE CONTINUE TO WATCH A SHORTWAVE
THAT IS NOW ABOUT TO MOVE ONTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST TO MOVE OUT
ACROSS THE ROCKIES EARLY MONDAY AND OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AS UPSTREAM FLOW BUCKLES SLIGHTLY. THIS
IS STILL EXPECTED TO SEND A MODEST PACIFIC COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY.
SOME DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH TIMING...WRF/NAM REMAINS A BIT SLOWER
WITH THIS FRONT BUT IS IN THE VICINITY OF WHERE MODEL TRENDS SEEM
TO BE LEADING. HOW MUCH STRATUS MIGHT HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN ON
MONDAY IS UNCLEAR...THOUGH WEAK SOUTHEAST COMPONENT AND ELEVATED
DEW-POINTS IN THE 40S OR LOWER 50S WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME.
STILL...HAVE SIDED WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE MOST GUIDANCE
UNTIL FRONT ACTUALLY SLIPS PAST MOST OF THE AREA MIDDAY OR
AFTERNOON. SLIGHT INSTABILITY ALSO REMAINS IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS
OVER NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS SO WILL HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDER THAT AREA WITH LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES OTHERWISE SPREADING
SOUTHWARD LATE MONDAY...AS WELL AS POSSIBLE FOG/DRIZZLE MONDAY
NIGHT.
IMPROVING AND WARMING STILL LOOKS ON TRACK MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH
TRENDS APPEARING SLOWER NOW WITH WHATEVER FORM OF SPLIT ENERGY WILL
MOVE INTO OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY WITH
COOLING UNTIL SATURDAY...WHILE RETAINING LOW SHOWER CHANCES THEN AS
WELL. TRENDS AT LEAST SUGGEST BULK OF ENERGY WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH
AGAIN...WITH PERHAPS LESS AMPLIFICATION OF TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST.
RMCQUEEN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 75 43 63 40 63 / 0 10 20 20 10
TULIA 76 45 67 43 64 / 0 10 20 20 10
PLAINVIEW 76 45 70 43 64 / 0 10 20 20 10
LEVELLAND 76 45 71 45 64 / 0 10 20 20 20
LUBBOCK 76 48 73 45 65 / 0 10 20 20 10
DENVER CITY 76 47 72 44 66 / 0 10 10 20 20
BROWNFIELD 76 46 73 45 66 / 0 10 20 20 20
CHILDRESS 77 52 74 45 66 / 0 10 20 20 10
SPUR 76 51 76 46 64 / 10 10 20 20 10
ASPERMONT 76 53 77 47 65 / 10 10 20 20 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01
000
FXUS64 KHGX 081145
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
545 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.AVIATION...
CIGS FINALLY STARTING TO COME DOWN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH IAH AND HOU BOTH REPORTING IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS. NORTHERN TAF SITES HAVE REMAINED RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE
OVERNIGHT AND COULD SEE SOME PATCHES OF FOG DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. REST OF THE FORECAST DEPENDS UPON THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. PRECIPITATION HAS ALREADY
DEVELOPED OFFSHORE AND SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION MAKES IT
ONSHORE AND THUS EXACT TIMING FOR INDIVIDUAL TAF SITES REMAINS
PROBLEMATIC. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH VCSH PREVAILING FOR MOST
SITES DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION.
EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CIGS TOMORROW NIGHT WITH MORE
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AS THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. 38
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/
DISCUSSION...
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST PORTION
OF THE CWA. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE
DEEPENS AHEAD OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.
SATELLITE DERIVED PW VALUES ARE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.6 INCHES WHICH
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MODEL PROGS. MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY
GOOD AGREEMENT BUT DIFFER IN THE DETAILS. SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL LIE
IN A WELL DEFINED 85 KNOT RIGHT REAR QUAD THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY. THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND THE
JET DYNAMICS COUPLED WITH DECENT MOISTURE SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR
AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. ONCE THE THROUGH AXIS PASSES
THE AREA LATE MONDAY MORNING...CONFLUENT UPPER WINDS SHOULD HELP
TO END ANY REMAINING PRECIP...THOUGH CLOUDS MAY LINGER FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. COASTAL FLOODING IS A CONCERN MAINLY FOR GALVESTON
COUNTY. A LONG EASTERLY FETCH WILL BRING TIDE LEVELS UP 1 TO 2
FEET. TIDE VALUES WILL EXCEED 3.7 FEET ON THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA AT
HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. HAVE UPGRADED THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH TO A
WARNING FOR GALVESTON COUNTY.
REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS RATHER BENIGN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING OVER TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NEAR ZERO WITH SEASONAL
TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
NEXT WEEKEND. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT POPS FOR BOTH SAT/SUN. 43
MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS THE BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHWARD
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE INCREASED WINDS COMBINED
WITH A LONG FETCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CAUSE WAVE HEIGHTS
TO BEGIN TO BUILD BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEY SHOULD REACH 8-10
FEET IN THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CAUTION CRITERIA
ALREADY BEING REACHED ACROSS THE COASTAL ZONES AND WILL KEEP THE
ADVISORY THROUGH NOON SUNDAY BEFORE UPGRADING TO ADVISORY AND ADDING
CAUTION TO GALVESTON AND MATAGORDA BAYS. ADVISORY SET TO EXPIRE AT
MIDNIGHT SUNDAY BUT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED. 38
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 76 62 77 57 80 / 30 30 20 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 76 64 77 58 79 / 30 50 30 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 74 67 73 63 77 / 40 50 50 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM NOON CST TODAY THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...
MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...38
000
FXUS64 KSJT 081143
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
543 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ISOLD
SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...AND HAVE VCSH IN THE KJCT...KSOA AND KBBD
TERMINALS AFTER 20Z TODAY.
21
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/
SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO...AND WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS WERE MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING. THE LOW CLOUDS
WILL BE AROUND THROUGH THIS MORNING...THEN DISSIPATE THIS
AFTERNOON. LEE TROF JUST EAST OF THE ROCKY MTNS WILL KEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW GOING TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY A
FEW DEGREES COOLER DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH SLGT CHC POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWFA
TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE
ALONG WEAK UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. ALSO...KEEPING ISOLD TSTMS DUE TO
SOME WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. WILL DROP THE SLGT CHC POPS AFTER
06Z TONIGHT...HOWEVER PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT.
LONG TERM...
FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE AREA MONDAY MORNING.
WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG AND LIGHT DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW NEAR
THE SURFACE KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING TOO QUICKLY...AND
ALLOWING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SATURATION BELOW 900MB CONTINUING
INTO THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE KEPT MONDAY DRY OTHERWISE. WILL KEEP
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT GOING AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. BEST CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE NORTHWEST
OF OUR CWA WHERE SOME UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL LIFT
AND RAIN CHANCES. ON TUESDAY...WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUD
COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION...IT WILL BE RATHER WEAK...SO HAVE
BUMPED HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES.
A RIDGE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH LITTLE CHANCE
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 74 55 75 48 68 / 10 10 10 20 10
SAN ANGELO 75 54 75 47 70 / 10 10 10 10 10
JUNCTION 73 52 76 48 74 / 20 20 10 10 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KFWD 081142
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
542 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTH TEXAS HAS
AFFECTED NOT ONLY THE REAL-TIME SATELLITE DETECTION OF THE LOW
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT BUT ALSO THE ACTUAL FORMATION OF STRATUS.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT STRATUS WILL STILL DEVELOP THIS
MORNING...BUT THAT CEILINGS WILL PERHAPS NOT BE AS LOW AS THOSE OF
YESTERDAY MORNING. WILL FORECAST MVFR CEILINGS AT METROPLEX TAF
SITES THIS MORNING AND IFR CEILINGS AT KACT. LOWEST CLOUDS ARE
LIKELY TO BE OBSERVED 8 AM CST TO NOON CST. ISOLATE SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS
TODAY....BUT PROBABILIIES WILL BE TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN TAFS.
09
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/
RATHER POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOW MOVING INTO THE BIG BEND
REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE.
MEANWHILE...HURRICANE IDA IS PASSING THROUGH THE YUCATAN STRAIT
AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. ANOTHER
BAROCLINIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ALSO INTENSIFYING IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF...AND WILL LIKELY MERGE WITH AND/OR ABSORB IDA
MONDAY NIGHT AS IDA NEARS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA. THE EFFECT OF
THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IN THE GULF HAS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO LIMIT QUALITY GULF MOISTURE RETURN INTO NORTH TEXAS. WHILE
FORCING FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS VERY IMPRESSIVE...LACK OF
MOISTURE IN THE CRITICAL LAYER FROM 600-850MB WILL LIMIT THE AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF ANY CONVECTION. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN
WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES TODAY...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES TONIGHT WHERE MOISTURE APPEARS SUFFICIENT. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ABOVE 500 MB WILL BE PLENTIFUL AS
SOUTHERLY JET MAX INTENSIFIES OVER THE REGION TODAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION AND STEEP LAPSE RATES AROUND 20000FT
OCCURRING...AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES OR
NON-MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.
THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND EXPECT SOME
GRADUAL CLEARING DURING THE DAY AS SUBSIDENCE SPREADS OVER THE
AREA. WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO BACK FROM THE EAST MONDAY TO THE
NORTH TUESDAY AS SPRAWLING SURFACE CYCLONE IN THE GULF INFLUENCES
THE CONTINENTAL PRESSURE PATTERN. THIS WILL BRING SOME COOLER AND
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH VERY NICE
WEATHER PREVAILING THROUGH LATE WEEK.
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT NORTH TEXAS BY
FRIDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BRINGING MOISTURE/CLOUDS BACK INTO
THE REGION. GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM...WITH
THE ECMWF SHOWING A SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER UPPER TROUGH. WILL
KEEP SOME LOW CHANCES OF RAIN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND FAVOR
THE ECMWF TIMING FOR FROPA AROUND SUNDAY.
TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 74 59 76 56 74 / 10 10 10 10 5
WACO, TX 74 58 78 56 76 / 30 30 10 10 5
PARIS, TX 74 56 74 54 71 / 10 10 20 10 5
DENTON, TX 74 57 76 54 72 / 10 10 10 10 5
MCKINNEY, TX 74 57 76 54 73 / 10 10 10 10 5
DALLAS, TX 74 59 76 58 74 / 10 20 10 10 5
TERRELL, TX 74 58 77 56 74 / 10 20 10 10 5
CORSICANA, TX 74 59 76 56 74 / 20 30 10 10 5
TEMPLE, TX 74 58 78 56 75 / 30 30 10 10 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KAMA 081140 AAA
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
540 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.AVIATION...
IFR CIGS CURRENTLY SW OF AMA MAY MAKE BRIEF APPEARANCE AT AMA
TERMINAL THIS MRNG. WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE FOR SAME IF NECESSARY.
OTHERWISE...HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO THICKEN TDA AND TNGT...WITH SSWLY
SFC WINDS GUSTING AT OR ABOVE 20 KT MOST OF TDA. SSELY SFC WINDS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TNGT...WITH WIND SHIFT ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL REACH NRN TAF SITES AROUND 07Z MON AND AMA AROUND 11Z MON. IFR
CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS IN BR EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH FROPA.
COCKRELL
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES TODAY. AS A RESULT...1000-500MB THICKNESS
VALUES DECREASE OVER THE PANHANDLES AND COOLER AIR FILTERS IN INTO
THE LOWER LEVELS. SHOULD STILL SEE SOUTH WINDS FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAY...ALLOWING HIGH TEMPS TO INCREASE INTO THE MID 70S. NEXT
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT...THEN ENTER THE AREA
MONDAY. CURRENTLY EXPECTING THE FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH ALL BY THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES BY MID DAY. ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER AND COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA...WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 IN THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE.
ALSO...DEW POINTS ARE STEADILY INCREASING ACROSS THE CWA SO EXPECT LL
MOISTURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE ON MONDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ON MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES...BUT GENERALLY ANTICIPATE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA. DID
KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE THE FRONTAL
FORCING COMBINED WITH THE LIMITED INSTABILITY MAY TRIGGER A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES. ALSO...KEPT MENTION OF PATCHY MORNING FOG ON
MONDAY.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING RETURNS ON TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS INTO
ZONAL FLOW BY THURSDAY. EXPECT A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY.
BUMPED UP HIGH TEMPS FROM GUIDANCE ON THURSDAY AS MODEL PROG A
DEEPENING LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH AND STRONG SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPING
WINDS. SO THOUGHT MID 70S WERE APPROPRIATE. STILL SOME CONCERN ON THE
TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONT. GFS CONTINUES TO RUN 12 HOURS OR SO FASTER
THAN THE EURO. SO FRIDAY TEMPS ARE STILL A CONCERN. CURRENTLY BROUGHT
THE FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES BY 18Z...THEN THROUGH THE ENTIRE
AREA LATER ON MONDAY. LOWERED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT KEPT THE MENTION OF SHOWERS IN FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD REMAIN LOW THROUGH MID WEEK. COOLER AIR
AND INCREASING SURFACE MOISTURE EXPECTED TODAY WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLE ON MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN.
WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY WHICH MAY PROVIDE
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 75 45 57 38 60 / 0 20 20 20 10
BEAVER OK 76 45 57 39 61 / 0 20 20 20 5
BOISE CITY OK 73 40 52 34 58 / 0 20 20 10 5
BORGER TX 76 48 55 38 60 / 0 20 20 20 10
BOYS RANCH TX 77 44 56 38 62 / 0 20 20 20 10
CANYON TX 76 43 58 38 63 / 0 20 20 20 10
CLARENDON TX 76 49 69 40 61 / 0 10 20 20 10
DALHART TX 75 41 55 34 60 / 0 20 20 10 10
GUYMON OK 76 44 55 36 62 / 0 20 20 20 5
HEREFORD TX 76 42 60 38 64 / 0 10 20 20 10
LIPSCOMB TX 78 48 60 38 62 / 0 20 20 20 5
PAMPA TX 76 48 59 41 58 / 0 20 20 20 10
SHAMROCK TX 78 51 70 45 63 / 0 10 20 20 10
WELLINGTON TX 77 50 70 47 63 / 0 10 20 20 10
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
03/14
000
FXUS64 KMAF 081130
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
530 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOME TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AT KMAF
DUE TO LOW STRATUS. AT THE CURRENT MOMENT...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF STRATUS FOR ANY OF THE OTHER
TERMINALS SINCE MOST OF THE IT WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN
LOW ROLLING PLAINS...EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS PECOS.
THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF STRATUS NEAR KHOB...BUT THESE SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINAL. MID AND HIGH CLOUD WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT MUCH OF WEST TEXAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON NEAR KFST...BUT WE
WILL ONLY CARRY CB SINCE VERY LITTLE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING BACK
MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. NEXT TROUGH WILL BE OVER GREAT BASIN BY
LATE THURSDAY WITH LEAD EDGES OF IT HITTING REGION FRIDAY. OVERALL
EXPECTING MILD WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.
HAVE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG RIO GRANDE INTO TRANS PECOS THIS MORNING
BUT MOST PRECIP HAS STAYED WELL INTO MEXICO. COULD SEE FOG DEVELOP
THIS MORNING EAST OF A HOBBS TO FORT STOCKTON LINE AS TEMP/DEWPT
SPREAD IS LOW. POSSIBILITY OF FOG FOR THE SAME AREA AGAIN MONDAY
MORNING. COULD ALSO BE A FEW SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHEAST MONDAY
MORNING WITH ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE FOR THE AFTERNOON. COOLED
LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES TONIGHT AND PUSHED SHOWERS NORTHWARD ACROSS
MOST OF PECOS CO.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL NOT BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG PUSH INSTEAD THE FRONT WILL BACK DOOR INTO
THE AREA AS WIND BECOME EASTERLY ACROSS THE AREA. THIS COLD FRONT
MONDAY NOT LOOKING THAT STRONG BUT DOES GET SOME REINFORCING ON
TUESDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTHWARD.
A MESSY MIX OF DRIZZLE... FOG... AND LOW CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY MORNING... DEVELOPING MORE INTO SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY. TOTAL RAINFALL FROM THIS WILL BE LITTLE... BUT WILL
KEEP TEMPS DOWN DURING THE DAY. LATEST GUIDANCE TRYING TO WARM
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT TOO QUICKLY... KEPT THE DAY COOL BUT DID
BUMP READINGS UP A COUPLE DEGREES.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN WEDNESDAY... WITH WARM
TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT EXPECTED SATURDAY... A DAY
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. FOR TIME BEING WILL KEEP EXTENDED
FORECAST DRY BUT COULD SEE LOW POPS BEING NEEDED ALONG THE FRONT
NEXT SATURDAY IF ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
78
000
FXUS64 KEWX 081023
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
423 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...
PATCHY FOG WAS SLOW TO GET GOING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
MORNING WITH A NEAR SOLID LAYER OF STRATUS FORMING IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASED SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND THE APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT. MORNING RADAR LOOPS SHOW AREAS OF WEAK LIFT
MOVING UP THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE AND SOME
STRONGER ACTIVITY MOVING ONSHORE NEAR CRP. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
BEGIN TO ENTER SOUTH CENTRAL TX COUNTIES FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH
BY AROUND DAYBREAK WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN SETTING UP OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY. HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS LOW DUE TO THE LACK OF EXPECTED SURFACE HEATING AND
THE GENERAL WEAKENING TREND OF THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE ALOFT.
RAINFALL POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO LOOK MAINLY BELOW ONE-QUARTER INCH
WITH SPOTTY TOTALS OF ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH. ISOLATED STRONG CELLS
MAY DEVELOP BRIEFLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE OF CLEARING WHEN THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO
THE AREA.
RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WITH MODEL
DATA SHOWING DRY AND SUBSIDENT FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT. IF AREAS OF
SIGNIFICANT RAIN DEVELOP TODAY, LATER FORECAST PACKAGES MAY NEED
TO CONSIDER PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. NE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE
TUESDAY TO REMOVE A GOOD PERCENTAGE OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE;
THIS PROCESSED COULD BE ENHANCED WITH TRENDS IN THE OF THE TRACK
OF IDA OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE HYBRID UPPER TROUGH/TROPICAL
SYSTEM WILL PULL A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US SOUTH INTO
THE AREA, BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SKIES
CLEARING FOR LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
LATE PERIODS SHOW SOME UNCERTAINTY IN RESPONSE TO A PROGESSIVE
PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC. A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG
OVER THE WRN US LATE IN THE WEEK WITH MODELS SHOWING POOR
AGREEMENT ON LOCATION AND TIMING. SOME REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD REMAIN POOLED OVER THE WESTERN GULF TO RETURN QUICKLY WHEN
SOUTHERLIES BEGIN TO PICK UP LATE THURSDAY. THIS WOULD TRANSLATE
TO A DAMPENING OF DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES LATE NEXT WEEK AND
INCREASING RAIN POTENTIAL FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 73 61 77 60 75 / 50 20 10 10 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 74 60 76 57 75 / 50 20 10 - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 74 60 76 56 75 / 60 20 10 - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 72 59 74 55 71 / 40 20 10 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 76 61 78 58 76 / 20 10 - - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 73 59 75 57 74 / 40 20 10 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 75 60 77 57 76 / 50 20 - - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 74 60 76 57 75 / 60 20 10 - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 75 61 77 57 77 / 50 30 10 - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 74 61 77 59 75 / 50 20 10 - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 75 61 78 58 76 / 60 20 10 - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
18/04
000
FXUS64 KCRP 081009
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
409 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...ACTIVITY ALREADY IN GULFMEX
AS UPPER SUPPORT MOVES IN ALONG WITH BETTER MOISTURE...SO
SHOWERS/STORMS LIKELY TODAY MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWFA. MAIN ISSUE IS HOW LONG TO KEEP THE RAIN IN FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AS MODELS DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM...I.E...HOW LONG WILL UPPER SYSTEM IMPACT THE AREA. IR
VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING UPPER TROUGH MOVING RATHER READILY INTO
WEST TEXAS AND THUS THINK GFS IS HANDLING THIS SYSTEM A BIT BETTER.
ALSO...NAM IS A BIT TOO SLOW WITH SURFACE TROUGH AND WAS KEEPING
STRONGER THETA-E ADVECTION OVER THE AREA LONGER...06Z NAM SEEMS TO
BE LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR
THE EVENING FOR THE COASTAL AREAS (HIGHEST OVER THE
NORTHEAST)...THEN NOT MENTION ANY RAIN FOR MONDAY DESPITE HIGH NAM
MOS POPS. ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE RATHER READILY SO HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE BRIEF AND DID NOT MENTION IN THE ZONES. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE NORTHEAST TONIGHT THEN NORTH MONDAY AS TROUGH MOVES
NORTH AND IDA MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WELL AWAY FROM CWFA
AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO. GENERALLY STAYED ON THE COOL SIDE OR
BELOW GUIDANCE TODAY FOR RAIN-COOLED AIR...COOL SIDE TONIGHT THEN
WARM SIDE FOR MONDAY AS EXPECT SOME SUN TO COME OUT BY THE
AFTERNOON AND NNW FLOW COULD HELP WARM THINGS UP.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...WILL MAINTAIN COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT
FOR HIGH SURFACE/MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW. LEVELS HAVE REMAINED JUST
BELOW 2 FEET MSL AT BOB HALL PIER AND BELIEVE THAT ALTHOUGH LEVELS
WILL LIKELY GET ABOVE TO 2 FEET LATER TODAY...WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BELOW 2.5 FEET SO STILL EXPECT MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW.
&&
.MARINE (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...HAVE ISSUED SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS AS SEAS AROUND 7 FEET AT THE OUTER ENDS OF THE MARINE CWFA
AS SEAS 7 FEET AT BOY020. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
NEXT TWO DAYS AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND AS IDA ENTERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. FOR THE NEARSHORE...SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW 7 FEET TODAY
BUT SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR TONIGHT. NUMEROUS CONVECTION
TODAY...MORE SCATTERED TONIGHT AND ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR MONDAY
MORNING AS EXPECT SLOW DRYING TO OCCUR AND AREA WILL BE ON THE
SUBSIDENT SIDE OF UPPER TROUGH.
&&
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST AND ALLOWS RIDGING TO BEGIN OVER THE REGION.
THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO KEEP IDA OUT OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL ALSO INCREASE SUBSIDENCE AND
KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER
AIR INTO SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ONSHORE FLOW THEN
DEVELOPS AND INCREASES MOISTURE TO THE REGION BY FRIDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. KEPT THE MENTION OF ISOLATED PRECIP FOR
SATURDAY/SUNDAY AS NEXT TROUGH SKIRTS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS.
HOWEVER...MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS NEXT FEATURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 79 63 81 60 81 / 70 30 10 0 0
VICTORIA 75 60 79 57 79 / 70 40 10 0 0
LAREDO 82 64 84 61 85 / 30 10 10 0 0
ALICE 81 62 82 58 83 / 60 20 10 0 0
ROCKPORT 78 67 80 62 80 / 70 40 10 0 0
COTULLA 78 60 82 56 83 / 40 10 10 0 0
KINGSVILLE 80 62 82 59 82 / 70 20 10 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 79 66 80 65 79 / 70 30 10 0 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
GW/86...SHORT TERM
RG/82...LONG TERM
000
FXUS64 KSJT 081004
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
404 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO...AND WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS WERE MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING. THE LOW CLOUDS
WILL BE AROUND THROUGH THIS MORNING...THEN DISSIPATE THIS
AFTERNOON. LEE TROF JUST EAST OF THE ROCKY MTNS WILL KEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW GOING TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY A
FEW DEGREES COOLER DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH SLGT CHC POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWFA
TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE
ALONG WEAK UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. ALSO...KEEPING ISOLD TSTMS DUE TO
SOME WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. WILL DROP THE SLGT CHC POPS AFTER
06Z TONIGHT...HOWEVER PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...
FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE AREA MONDAY MORNING.
WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG AND LIGHT DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW NEAR
THE SURFACE KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING TOO QUICKLY...AND
ALLOWING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SATURATION BELOW 900MB CONTINUING
INTO THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE KEPT MONDAY DRY OTHERWISE. WILL KEEP
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT GOING AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. BEST CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE NORTHWEST
OF OUR CWA WHERE SOME UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL LIFT
AND RAIN CHANCES. ON TUESDAY...WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUD
COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION...IT WILL BE RATHER WEAK...SO HAVE
BUMPED HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES.
A RIDGE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH LITTLE CHANCE
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 74 55 75 48 67 / 10 10 10 20 10
SAN ANGELO 75 54 75 47 69 / 10 10 10 10 10
JUNCTION 73 52 76 48 71 / 20 20 10 10 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21/20
000
FXUS64 KHGX 081002
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
402 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST PORTION
OF THE CWA. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE
DEEPENS AHEAD OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.
SATELLITE DERIVED PW VALUES ARE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.6 INCHES WHICH
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MODEL PROGS. MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY
GOOD AGREEMENT BUT DIFFER IN THE DETAILS. SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL LIE
IN A WELL DEFINED 85 KNOT RIGHT REAR QUAD THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY. THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND THE
JET DYNAMICS COUPLED WITH DECENT MOISTURE SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR
AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. ONCE THE THROUGH AXIS PASSES
THE AREA LATE MONDAY MORNING...CONFLUENT UPPER WINDS SHOULD HELP
TO END ANY REMAINING PRECIP...THOUGH CLOUDS MAY LINGER FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. COASTAL FLOODING IS A CONCERN MAINLY FOR GALVESTON
COUNTY. A LONG EASTERLY FETCH WILL BRING TIDE LEVELS UP 1 TO 2
FEET. TIDE VALUES WILL EXCEED 3.7 FEET ON THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA AT
HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. HAVE UPGRADED THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH TO A
WARNING FOR GALVESTON COUNTY.
REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS RATHER BENIGN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING OVER TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NEAR ZERO WITH SEASONAL
TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
NEXT WEEKEND. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT POPS FOR BOTH SAT/SUN. 43
MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS THE BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHWARD
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE INCREASED WINDS COMBINED
WITH A LONG FETCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CAUSE WAVE HEIGHTS
TO BEGIN TO BUILD BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEY SHOULD REACH 8-10
FEET IN THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CAUTION CRITERIA
ALREADY BEING REACHED ACROSS THE COASTAL ZONES AND WILL KEEP THE
ADVISORY THROUGH NOON SUNDAY BEFORE UPGRADING TO ADVISORY AND ADDING
CAUTION TO GALVESTON AND MATAGORDA BAYS. ADVISORY SET TO EXPIRE AT
MIDNIGHT SUNDAY BUT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED. 38
&&
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 76 62 77 57 80 / 30 30 20 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 76 64 77 58 79 / 30 50 30 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 74 67 73 63 77 / 40 50 50 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM NOON CST TODAY THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...
MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLUB 080946
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
346 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS
WILL REMAIN AS AN OPEN WAVE AS THE TROUGH PASSES OVER THE AREA
TODAY. HOWEVER...MOST ENERGY FROM THIS SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF THE FA WITH A LARGE AMOUNT OF LARGE SCALE FORCING ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY
WITH ONLY A MINIMAL AMOUNT OF LIFT AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THERE
WILL BE SOME STRONGER SURFACE INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 1000
J/KG BUT BELIEVE THIS WILL NOT BE REALIZED WITH THE LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND AGAIN
TODAY WITH SUSTAINED HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE FA. POSSIBLE FOGGY
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP TOMORROW MORNING FAVORING AREAS OFF THE
CAPROCK THOUGH MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT MAY
ON THE DOORSTEP OF THE FA BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW MORNING. JDV
&&
.LONG TERM...
MOIST BUT WEAK SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY AGAIN LEAD TO
AREAS OF STRATUS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH IN THE AREA. UPSTREAM...WE CONTINUE TO WATCH A SHORTWAVE
THAT IS NOW ABOUT TO MOVE ONTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST TO MOVE OUT
ACROSS THE ROCKIES EARLY MONDAY AND OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AS UPSTREAM FLOW BUCKLES SLIGHTLY. THIS
IS STILL EXPECTED TO SEND A MODEST PACIFIC COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY.
SOME DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH TIMING...WRF/NAM REMAINS A BIT SLOWER
WITH THIS FRONT BUT IS IN THE VICINITY OF WHERE MODEL TRENDS SEEM
TO BE LEADING. HOW MUCH STRATUS MIGHT HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN ON
MONDAY IS UNCLEAR...THOUGH WEAK SOUTHEAST COMPONENT AND ELEVATED
DEW-POINTS IN THE 40S OR LOWER 50S WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME.
STILL...HAVE SIDED WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE MOST GUIDANCE
UNTIL FRONT ACTUALLY SLIPS PAST MOST OF THE AREA MIDDAY OR
AFTERNOON. SLIGHT INSTABILITY ALSO REMAINS IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS
OVER NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS SO WILL HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDER THAT AREA WITH LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES OTHERWISE SPREADING
SOUTHWARD LATE MONDAY...AS WELL AS POSSIBLE FOG/DRIZZLE MONDAY
NIGHT.
IMPROVING AND WARMING STILL LOOKS ON TRACK MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH
TRENDS APPEARING SLOWER NOW WITH WHATEVER FORM OF SPLIT ENERGY WILL
MOVE INTO OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY WITH
COOLING UNTIL SATURDAY...WHILE RETAINING LOW SHOWER CHANCES THEN AS
WELL. TRENDS AT LEAST SUGGEST BULK OF ENERGY WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH
AGAIN...WITH PERHAPS LESS AMPLIFICATION OF TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST.
RMCQUEEN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 75 43 63 40 63 / 0 10 20 20 10
TULIA 76 45 67 43 64 / 0 10 20 20 10
PLAINVIEW 76 45 70 43 64 / 0 10 20 20 10
LEVELLAND 76 45 71 45 64 / 0 10 20 20 20
LUBBOCK 76 48 74 45 64 / 0 10 20 20 10
DENVER CITY 76 47 72 44 66 / 0 10 10 20 20
BROWNFIELD 76 46 73 45 66 / 0 10 20 20 20
CHILDRESS 77 52 74 45 66 / 0 10 20 20 10
SPUR 76 51 76 46 64 / 10 10 20 20 10
ASPERMONT 76 53 77 47 65 / 10 10 20 20 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01/05
000
FXUS64 KAMA 080942
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
342 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES TODAY. AS A RESULT...1000-500MB THICKNESS
VALUES DECREASE OVER THE PANHANDLES AND COOLER AIR FILTERS IN INTO
THE LOWER LEVELS. SHOULD STILL SEE SOUTH WINDS FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAY...ALLOWING HIGH TEMPS TO INCREASE INTO THE MID 70S. NEXT
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT...THEN ENTER THE AREA
MONDAY. CURRENTLY EXPECTING THE FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH ALL BY THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES BY MID DAY. ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER AND COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA...WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 IN THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE.
ALSO...DEW POINTS ARE STEADILY INCREASING ACROSS THE CWA SO EXPECT LL
MOISTURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE ON MONDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ON MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES...BUT GENERALLY ANTICIPATE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA. DID
KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE THE FRONTAL
FORCING COMBINED WITH THE LIMITED INSTABILITY MAY TRIGGER A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES. ALSO...KEPT MENTION OF PATCHY MORNING FOG ON
MONDAY.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING RETURNS ON TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS INTO
ZONAL FLOW BY THURSDAY. EXPECT A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY.
BUMPED UP HIGH TEMPS FROM GUIDANCE ON THURSDAY AS MODEL PROG A
DEEPENING LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH AND STRONG SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPING
WINDS. SO THOUGHT MID 70S WERE APPROPRIATE. STILL SOME CONCERN ON THE
TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONT. GFS CONTINUES TO RUN 12 HOURS OR SO FASTER
THAN THE EURO. SO FRIDAY TEMPS ARE STILL A CONCERN. CURRENTLY BROUGHT
THE FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES BY 18Z...THEN THROUGH THE ENTIRE
AREA LATER ON MONDAY. LOWERED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT KEPT THE MENTION OF SHOWERS IN FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD REMAIN LOW THROUGH MID WEEK. COOLER AIR
AND INCREASING SURFACE MOISTURE EXPECTED TODAY WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLE ON MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN.
WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY WHICH MAY PROVIDE
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 75 45 57 38 60 / 0 20 20 20 10
BEAVER OK 76 45 57 39 61 / 0 20 20 20 5
BOISE CITY OK 73 40 52 34 58 / 0 20 20 10 5
BORGER TX 76 48 55 38 60 / 0 20 20 20 10
BOYS RANCH TX 77 44 56 38 62 / 0 20 20 20 10
CANYON TX 76 43 58 38 63 / 0 20 20 20 10
CLARENDON TX 76 49 69 40 61 / 0 10 20 20 10
DALHART TX 75 41 55 34 60 / 0 20 20 10 10
GUYMON OK 76 44 55 36 62 / 0 20 20 20 5
HEREFORD TX 76 42 60 38 64 / 0 10 20 20 10
LIPSCOMB TX 78 48 60 38 62 / 0 20 20 20 5
PAMPA TX 76 48 59 41 58 / 0 20 20 20 10
SHAMROCK TX 78 51 70 45 63 / 0 10 20 20 10
WELLINGTON TX 77 50 70 47 63 / 0 10 20 20 10
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
03/14
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 080940
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
240 AM MST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT HIGH CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE BORDERLAND YESTERDAY WILL EXIT THE REGION
TODAY. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN AND MOVE DRIER AIR BACK OVER
THE REGION. THIS MEANS MORE SUNSHINE WITH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WARMER TODAY. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. HOWEVER HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP THE EFFECTS SUBDUED AS THE AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY DRY. THE AREA WILL SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY WITH SOME INCREASED CLOUDS...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. CONTINUED DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK. WE`RE WATCHING THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM DUE
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY. AS OF NOW IT IS ONLY ADVERTISING
INCREASES IN WINDS AND CLOUDS...BUT STILL NO RAIN.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE VIEWS SHOW THE UPPER LOW HAS OPENED...IS WELL SOUTH OF
THE CWFA...AND IS BEGINNING TO LIFT AND PASS EAST. STORMS
DEVELOPED OVER N MEXICO LAST EVENING BUT STAYED WELL SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAVE EVACUATED ALL BUT THE
EASTERN 1/3 OF OUR CWFA AND A CLEARING TREND OVER THAT REMAINING
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING.
TODAY THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL FLATTEN A BECOME MORE ZONAL OVER THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. FOR US THAT ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING DRIER AIR
AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS BACK OVER THE CWFA. THIS BRINGS BACK MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND ALLOWS FOR A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMING THIS
AFTERNOON.
NOTHING NOTABLE IN THE NEAR TERM FOR THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT
WHEN A BACKDOOR FRONT IS PROGED TO PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE
LATEST GFS SHOWS A SLOWLY BUILDING WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA
BECAUSE OF THIS FEATURE ALOFT THE LATEST CHARTS NOW SUGGEST
WEAKER FRONTAL EFFECTS. BASICALLY THEY STILL SHOW THE FRONT TO
MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME BREEZY WINDS BUT THE MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS WEAKER AS IS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. THUS HAVE INCHED
THE TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY AND REMOVED ALL POPS AND MENTIONS OF PCPN
FOR THE SACS FOR MON NIGHT AND TUE. IT APPEARS THAT TEMPS WILL
COOL DOWN TO THE NORMAL RANGE AT BEST.
THE NEXT FEATURE OF NOTE IS THE FORMATION OF A LARGE PACIFIC
TROUGH WHICH MODELS SPLIT INTO A NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN TROUGH. THE
SOUTHERN TROUGH LOOKS TO DROP OVER THE SW THUR AND PULL ABUNDANT
HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA ON A SUB-TROPICAL TAP. THE DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH ARRIVE FRIDAY AND EXIT SATURDAY. MODELS
KEEP THE LOW LEVELS GENERALLY DRY...BUT DO GIVE THE HINT OF LIGHT
PCPN POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. FOR NOW JUST
HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THOSE PERIODS.
WILL WAIT FOR A BETTER SIGNAL TO INTRODUCE ANY POPS.
&&
AVIATION...VALID 08/12Z-09/12Z...
VFR CONDTS THRU PD WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. HIGH
CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXITING UPPER LOW TO THE
SOUTH WILL DECREASE TODAY. FEW-SCT180-250 EARLY...BCMG SKC ACROSS
ALL TERMINALS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LOW TRACKING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO EARLY TODAY WILL
EXIT TO THE EAST TODAY. DECREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
RESULT. MAJORITY OF ATMOSPHERE FROM GROUND UP WILL REMAIN DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH IMPROVING NIGHT-TIME
RH RECOVERIES NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BEGINS TO SLOWLY
RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH FOR CLEARING
SKIES. SLOW NATURE OF BUILDING RIDGE...WILL ALLOW WEAK SHORTWAVE
TO MOVE THROUGH FOUR CORNERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY
SEND WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT THRU MON NIGHT. HIGHS TUESDAY
SHOULD REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL...WITH 2 TO 8 DEGREES OF
COOLING POSSIBLE BELOW MONDAYS HIGHS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 76 47 78 46 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA TX 73 43 75 41 72 / 10 0 0 0 10
LAS CRUCES 75 44 77 43 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 71 41 73 39 69 / 0 0 0 10 10
CLOUDCROFT 60 29 61 29 57 / 0 0 0 10 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 75 41 76 39 71 / 0 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 71 40 73 36 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEMING 75 42 77 40 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 76 42 78 41 77 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
14/BIRD
000
FXUS64 KMAF 080939
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
339 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING BACK
MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. NEXT TROUGH WILL BE OVER GREAT BASIN BY
LATE THURSDAY WITH LEAD EDGES OF IT HITTING REGION FRIDAY. OVERALL
EXPECTING MILD WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.
HAVE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG RIO GRANDE INTO TRANS PECOS THIS MORNING
BUT MOST PRECIP HAS STAYED WELL INTO MEXICO. COULD SEE FOG DEVELOP
THIS MORNING EAST OF A HOBBS TO FORT STOCKTON LINE AS TEMP/DEWPT
SPREAD IS LOW. POSSIBILITY OF FOG FOR THE SAME AREA AGAIN MONDAY
MORNING. COULD ALSO BE A FEW SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHEAST MONDAY
MORNING WITH ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE FOR THE AFTERNOON. COOLED
LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES TONIGHT AND PUSHED SHOWERS NORTHWARD ACROSS
MOST OF PECOS CO.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL NOT BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG PUSH INSTEAD THE FRONT WILL BACK DOOR INTO
THE AREA AS WIND BECOME EASTERLY ACROSS THE AREA. THIS COLD FRONT
MONDAY NOT LOOKING THAT STRONG BUT DOES GET SOME REINFORCING ON
TUESDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTHWARD.
A MESSY MIX OF DRIZZLE... FOG... AND LOW CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY MORNING... DEVELOPING MORE INTO SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY. TOTAL RAINFALL FROM THIS WILL BE LITTLE... BUT WILL
KEEP TEMPS DOWN DURING THE DAY. LATEST GUIDANCE TRYING TO WARM
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT TOO QUICKLY... KEPT THE DAY COOL BUT DID
BUMP READINGS UP A COUPLE DEGREES.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN WEDNESDAY... WITH WARM
TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT EXPECTED SATURDAY... A DAY
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. FOR TIME BEING WILL KEEP EXTENDED
FORECAST DRY BUT COULD SEE LOW POPS BEING NEEDED ALONG THE FRONT
NEXT SATURDAY IF ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX 74 51 73 47 / 0 10 10 20
CARLSBAD NM 79 45 75 47 / 0 0 0 10
DRYDEN TX 76 52 76 55 / 20 10 10 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 79 51 79 52 / 10 10 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 71 47 70 45 / 0 0 0 10
HOBBS NM 76 47 71 46 / 0 0 10 20
MARFA TX 73 35 74 39 / 10 0 0 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 75 51 74 47 / 10 10 10 20
ODESSA TX 75 51 74 48 / 10 10 10 20
WINK TX 80 49 77 47 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
78/72
000
FXUS64 KFWD 080926
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
326 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...
RATHER POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOW MOVING INTO THE BIG BEND
REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE.
MEANWHILE...HURRICANE IDA IS PASSING THROUGH THE YUCATAN STRAIT
AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. ANOTHER
BAROCLINIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ALSO INTENSIFYING IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF...AND WILL LIKELY MERGE WITH AND/OR ABSORB IDA
MONDAY NIGHT AS IDA NEARS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA. THE EFFECT OF
THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IN THE GULF HAS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO LIMIT QUALITY GULF MOISTURE RETURN INTO NORTH TEXAS. WHILE
FORCING FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS VERY IMPRESSIVE...LACK OF
MOISTURE IN THE CRITICAL LAYER FROM 600-850MB WILL LIMIT THE AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF ANY CONVECTION. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN
WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES TODAY...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES TONIGHT WHERE MOISTURE APPEARS SUFFICIENT. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ABOVE 500 MB WILL BE PLENTIFUL AS
SOUTHERLY JET MAX INTENSIFIES OVER THE REGION TODAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION AND STEEP LAPSE RATES AROUND 20000FT
OCCURRING...AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES OR
NON-MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.
THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND EXPECT SOME
GRADUAL CLEARING DURING THE DAY AS SUBSIDENCE SPREADS OVER THE
AREA. WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO BACK FROM THE EAST MONDAY TO THE
NORTH TUESDAY AS SPRAWLING SURFACE CYCLONE IN THE GULF INFLUENCES
THE CONTINENTAL PRESSURE PATTERN. THIS WILL BRING SOME COOLER AND
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH VERY NICE
WEATHER PREVAILING THROUGH LATE WEEK.
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT NORTH TEXAS BY
FRIDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BRINGING MOISTURE/CLOUDS BACK INTO
THE REGION. GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM...WITH
THE ECMWF SHOWING A SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER UPPER TROUGH. WILL
KEEP SOME LOW CHANCES OF RAIN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND FAVOR
THE ECMWF TIMING FOR FROPA AROUND SUNDAY.
TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 74 59 76 56 74 / 10 10 10 10 5
WACO, TX 74 58 78 56 76 / 30 30 10 10 5
PARIS, TX 74 56 74 54 71 / 10 10 20 10 5
DENTON, TX 74 57 76 54 72 / 10 10 10 10 5
MCKINNEY, TX 74 57 76 54 73 / 10 10 10 10 5
DALLAS, TX 74 59 76 58 74 / 10 20 10 10 5
TERRELL, TX 74 58 77 56 74 / 10 20 10 10 5
CORSICANA, TX 74 59 76 56 74 / 20 30 10 10 5
TEMPLE, TX 74 58 78 56 75 / 30 30 10 10 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBRO 080901
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
301 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS FROM THE SOUTH ARE MOVING UP INTO THE
MARINE AREAS THIS MORNING. A BAND OF THOSE SHOWERS MOVED OVER
BROWNSVILLE LAST EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A
TROUGH OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE WEST GULF MOVES UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND INTO TEXAS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
TODAY.
AFTER TODAY...CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO CONSOLIDATE IN THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO AS RECENTLY UPGRADED HURRICANE IDA MOVES SLOWLY TO
THE NORTH. A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON
MONDAY...WITH WEAK RIDGING UPSTREAM OVER WEST TEXAS. LOCAL WEATHER
WILL THEREFORE BE SEASONAL WITH IDA WELL TO THE EAST IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH CLOUDS AND HIGH BEACH SURF WITH MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING MAY BE THE ONLY SIGN OF IDA EVIDENT LOCALLY.
AS IDA ACCELERATES NORTH AND NORTHEAST DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PART OF THIS WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS WILL PUSH SOUTH
INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY...
AND THEN MID LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE ON
TOP OF US BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MILD DECREASE IN
TEMPS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES OR SO AND CLEAR SKIES AS COOLER AND
DRIER AIR SETTLES IN. TEMPS WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
HOWEVER.
DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST.
MODEL INITIALIZATION WAS GOOD...AS WAS RUN TO RUN GRID CONSISTENCY
AND INTER OFFICE GRID CONSISTENCY. FRESHENED UP ALL THE GRIDS WITH
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO THE FORECAST.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE
COMING WEEK. THIS COULD HAVE THE EFFECT OF DRAWING MOISTURE IN
FROM THE GULF...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LOCALLY ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE WEAK HOWEVER...AND WILL STALL OUT
OVER CENTRAL TEXAS OVER NEXT WEEKEND. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY THE FOLLOWING
WEEK...LEADING TO A BACK DOOR FRONT AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 907 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/ ...SATELLITE
AND RADAR IMAGES INDICATE SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST
MEXICO INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS
EVENING. AS A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO MOVES
EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ABUNDANT LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTH
INTO SOUTH TX. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
LOWER TX COAST TONIGHT AND INLAND TOWARDS MORNING. WILL GO AHEAD
AND INCREASE POPS TONIGHT FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING. WILL ALSO MAKE SOME CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE
AND SKY GRIDS TO MATCH BETTER WITH OUR NEIGHBORING CWA TO THE
NORTH.
&&
.MARINE...BUOY 42020 REPORTED EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS GUSTING
TO AROUND 14 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY OVER 6 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF
9 SECONDS AT 02 CST/08 UTC. LARGE SWELLS FROM DEVELOPING HURRICANE
IDA WILL APPROACH THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TODAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THIS WEEK. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF
MEXICO WATERS EAST OF PADRE ISLAND TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE
LARGE SWELLS. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS THE SWELLS RAPIDLY SUBSIDE.
&&
.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT VISIBILITIES THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 81 69 83 64 / 50 10 10 0
BROWNSVILLE 82 68 85 62 / 50 10 10 0
HARLINGEN 83 66 84 60 / 40 10 10 0
MCALLEN 84 67 89 62 / 40 10 10 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 84 64 88 59 / 30 10 10 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 78 68 83 68 / 60 10 10 0
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR TXZ251-256-257.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ251-
256-257.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
175.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE
54/66
000
FXUS64 KCRP 080738 AAC
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
138 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...SEE MARINE DISCUSSION.
&&
.MARINE...BASED ON INCREASING SEA HEIGHTS AT BOY020...DECIDED TO
ISSUE SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. MAY HAVE TO EXTEND SCA TO THE
NEARSHORE WATERS FOR 330 AM PACKAGE...WILL WATCH BOY020 AND BOY019
TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED POPS GULFMEX BASED ON CURRENT RADAR DATA
AND TRENDS. DECIDED TO INCLUDE THUNDER TOO.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1147 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION.
AVIATION...CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH TX ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER TO MVFR/IFR AS LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG DVLP ACROSS MAINLY
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. A SFC TROF OVER THE GULF IS MOVG N
AND BRINGING SCT SHRA`S TOWARD S TX. AM EXPECTING RAIN CHANCES TO
INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS THIS LOW REACHES NEAR THE
MIDDLE TX COAST AND AN UPPER LOW SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION
PROVIDING ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR TSRA`S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BEST
TSRA`S CHCS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE TROF AND UPPER
DISTURBANCE ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH FOG
THE MAIN CONCERN ONCE AGAIN.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 903 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...MOISTURE HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE AREA WHICH IS
EVIDENT IN THE 00Z CRP SOUNDING. AM NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
FOG DVLPMNT TONIGHT DUE TO A BKN CLOUD DECK OVHD...ALTHOUGH WHERE
THERE ARE BREAKS...BRIEF FOG DVLPMNT IS POSSIBLE WITH VSBY`S
LOWERING AT TIMES TO AROUND 1-3SM. MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THEN RAIN
CHANCES SHIFT INLAND AND INCREASE TO LIKELY ON SUNDAY DUE TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER LOW. THE OTHER MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE LOW IN THE
GULF MOVG N TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND INCREASING NE WINDS ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS WHICH IN TURN WILL LEAD TO MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW
ALONG THE BEACHES BY SUNDAY. CURRENT FCST IS ON TRACK WITH THESE
FEATURES...THEREFORE WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...A RATHER COMPLEX AVIATION WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING
UP OVER SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THE MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK CURRENTLY ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN LIFTING
NORTHEAST BY 12Z SUN. THIS SHOULD SLOW THE DEVELOPMENT/DECREASE
THE INTENSITY OF RADIATIONAL FOG ACROSS THE INLAND SECTIONS
TONIGHT. MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A KALI-
KBEA-KVCT LINE BETWEEN 10Z-14Z AS A RESULT...THEN SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR BETWEEN 14Z-15Z. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO TONIGHT SHOULD ENTER THE WESTERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY
SUNDAY MORNING...THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN
GULF SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE SHOULD GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
12Z-18Z SUN...THEN INCREASING AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOULD AID IN
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT GENERALLY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 16 18Z-24Z SUN. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY...WITH TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEAR CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...VIGOROUS DETACHED
S/WV TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST FROM BAJA TO NRN MEXICO THIS AFTN. THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS S/CEN TEXAS SUN AND SUN EVENING PROVIDING
LARGE SCALE LIFT AND SOME MODEST MID LEVEL COOLING TO THE REGION.
THE BEST LIFT WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 18Z AND 24Z SUN...TAPERING OFF IN
THE EVENING. THE GULF LOW ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL SLOWLY
MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD AND IS ACTUALLY SOMEWHAT UNFORTUNATE
AS IS WILL ACTUALLY LIMIT RETURN FLOW...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ACROSS S TX. HOWEVER...THE LOW MAY REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SE THAT
SIGNIFICANT SUBSIDENCE ON THE WRN SIDE DOES NOT REACH THE AREA
UNTIL SUN NIGHT. ALSO...IT STILL APPEARS ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
PRESENT TO PROVIDE SCT TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSTMS ON SUN GIVEN
STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOC W/ THE UPR SYSTEM TO THE WEST. OVERALL
INSTABILITY IS NOT GREAT WITH CAPES GENERALLY BELOW 1000 J/KG AND
SHEAR IS NOT STRONG SO UNLESS THINGS HEAT UP MUCH MORE THAN
ANTICIPATED...APPEARS SVR TSTMS SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE. ECMWF IS
MOST AGGRESSIVE W/ QPF SHOWING 1/2-1 INCH TOTAL RAINFALL ACROSS
CEN ZONES...WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE. THE ECM IS
PROBABLY A BIT AGGRESSIVE...BUT ISOLD AMOUNTS AROUND 1 INCH OR
LITTLE HIGH MAY BE POSSIBLE. BEST POPS IN LIKELY RANGE WILL OCCUR
ACROSS CEN/ERN ZONES ON SUN BUT WILL KEEP LINGERING SLT CHC-CHC
POPS SUN NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS IN WRN ZONES AT 00Z.
GIVEN INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...THINK FOG SHOULD NOT BE
AN ISSUE NEXT FEW NIGHTS.
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...A POTENT SRN STREAM S/WV WL
MOVE QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF THE CWA ON MONDAY
MORNING. THE S/WV WL TAKE THE SFC LOW ORIGINATING FROM THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE EWD TWDS IDA. HOWEVER...THE MAIN EFFECT WL BE INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MON AS RIDGING AT ALL LVLS BUILDS
INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTHWEST. A STRONG RDG AXIS ALOFT WITH THEN
BUILD INTO THE CWA THROUGH THURSDAY. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER
AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT/WED BEHIND A WK COLD FNT. THIS
FNT WL BE DRAWN THROUGH THE CWA AS DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LOW MERGES WITH IDA ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF. MOISTURE WL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY FRI AS THE SFC RDG AXIS
FINALLY WEAKENS AND ALLOWS ONSHORE FLOW TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP.
CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION ON SAT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SRN STREAM
S/WV WL ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED PCPN. GENERALLY WENT
WITH A BLEND OF GFS AND ENSEMBLE MOS TEMPS THROUGH THE PD. TIDAL
LVLS WL LKLY REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MIDWEEK...ESPECIALLY ON MON DUE
TO ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDES AND LARGE SWELLS FROM BOTH THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND IDA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 64 80 60 82 56 / 30 10 0 0 0
VICTORIA 60 77 57 78 53 / 40 10 0 0 0
LAREDO 64 83 60 85 56 / 10 10 0 0 0
ALICE 63 82 58 84 54 / 30 10 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 65 79 62 82 57 / 40 10 0 0 0
COTULLA 61 83 56 85 53 / 10 10 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 64 81 59 83 54 / 30 10 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 67 79 64 80 60 / 30 10 0 0 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
GW/86...SHORT TERM
RG/82...LONG TERM
000
FXUS64 KFWD 080552 AAC
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1152 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.AVIATION...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVED IN ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS DURING THE
EVENING. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO FORM LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING IFR
CONDITIONS BY 09Z AT WACO AND BY 11Z AT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES.
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY GO LIFR DURING THE MORNING AND NOT IMPROVE
TO MVFR UNTIL 18-20Z. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH CEILINGS LOWERING AGAIN BY 06Z. SOUTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS OF 8 TO 12 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL.
58
&&
.UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATE FOR CLOUDS AND COSMETICS. NO CHANGE TO FORECASTS. 84
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
353 PM
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST SOUTH OF NM AND AZ AT FORECAST
TIME. 12Z MODELS ALL KICK THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OUT NORTHEAST OVER
THE NEXT 24 HRS SPREADING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER
NORTH TX BEGINNING LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND EXTENDING THROUGH
ABOUT MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. 20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER LVL
PV ANALYSIS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
BAJA PENINSULA AND INTO MEXICO. MODELS SEEM TO POINT TO THIS
FEATURE AS BEING AT LEAST PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR DEVELOPING A
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER THE GOMEX DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. THIS
AREA OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE A SFC
LOW/INVERTED TROUGH TO DEEPEN NEAR THE TX/LA COAST BACKING THE LOW
LVL WINDS ALONG THE GULF COAST...EFFECTIVELY LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OF DEEPER GULF MOISTURE INTO NORTH TX
FOR SUNDAY. 12Z MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN SHEARING OUT THE UPPER LVL
PV ANOMALY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE CWA HERE STARTING 12Z
SUNDAY. DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAKER UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG OVER NORTH
TX AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...SO HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. THE AREAS EXPECTED TO SEE THE DEEPEST GULF
MOISTURE RETURN IN THE CWA ARE THOSE AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE
WACO AREA. AREAS IN NORTH TX THAT RECEIVE THE BEST GULF MOISTURE
ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE
GENERAL SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
IN THE BROAD FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. AS THE TROUGH DEPARTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER SUNRISE
ON MONDAY...ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH AS
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE SPREADS OVER THE REGION.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE COLD/PACIFIC FRONT STILL LOOKS ON
TRACK TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTH TX MONDAY NIGHT. 12Z MODEL
RUNS ARE NOW BRINGING SOME UPPER LVL SUPPORT ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE FORM OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH OK AND THE RED RIVER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
BECAUSE OF THE UPPER LVL SUPPORT...INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAIN SHOWERS FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LOOKING TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. DID NOT SPREAD POPS FURTHER SOUTH AS FORCING
ALONG THE FRONT BY ITSELF DOES NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. BEHIND THE FRONT...SKIES SHOULD BEGIN
TO CLEAR OUT FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LVL RIDGING BUILDS
BACK OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...IN GENERAL UPPER LVL RIDGING LOOKS TO
HOLD OVER THE FORECAST AREA ALLOWING FOR A DRY FORECAST. THE UPPER
FLOW LOOKS TO TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST AS A BROAD UPPER LVL TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL BRING FAIRLY STRONG LEE
SIDE TROUGHING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BRINGING A PERIOD OF
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW THRU TX...ALLOWING FOR SOME DEEPER GULF
MOISTURE RETURN BY FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...UPPER LVL ENERGY LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THRU THE PLAINS SHOULD SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH TX.
WITH BETTER MOISTURE IN PLACE KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACRS THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG THE COLD FRONT EVEN WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT UPPER
LVL FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE AREA. CAVANAUGH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 59 75 58 76 54 / 5 20 30 10 20
WACO, TX 59 76 56 76 53 / 5 40 30 10 10
PARIS, TX 53 74 54 75 53 / 5 20 30 10 20
DENTON, TX 56 74 55 75 52 / 5 20 30 10 20
MCKINNEY, TX 55 74 58 75 53 / 5 20 30 10 20
DALLAS, TX 61 75 58 76 55 / 5 20 30 10 20
TERRELL, TX 56 75 58 76 54 / 5 20 30 10 20
CORSICANA, TX 59 77 57 76 54 / 5 30 30 10 10
TEMPLE, TX 58 76 58 76 53 / 5 40 30 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
58/84
000
FXUS64 KLUB 080549
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1149 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.AVIATION...
A FEW CONCERNS FOR THE AVIATION FCST. FIRST IS LOW-LVL WIND SHEAR
AS A 40 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA.
ADDED WIND SHEAR WORDING TO THE KCDS TAF THROUGH 10Z AS SFC WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KTS. AT KLBB...STILL EXPECT
SOME MIXING TO OCCUR WHICH SHOULD LIMIT WIND SHEAR SOMEWHAT.
THEN...MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SOME LOW
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY SUN MORN. ADDED A TEMPO IFR
GROUP TO THE KLBB TAF AS CONFIDENCE IN THESE CONDITIONS HAS
INCREASED. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY EVENING SUNDAY...BUT TOWARD THE END OF THE FCST
PERIOD...REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG IS EXPECTED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 553 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE RETURNING ON S-SE WINDS MAY LEAD TO
SOME LIGHT FOG/LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
SOME POSSIBILITY THAT VSBY AND/OR CEILING MAY DROP TO MVFR CAT
FROM ABOUT KLBB SOUTHWARD BUT TOO UNCERTAIN TO ADD TO TAF AT THIS
TIME. THIS THREAT SHOULD END BY ABOUT 15Z SUN. WIND SPEEDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT DUE TO A STRONG NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL
JET...THE HIGHER SFC SPEEDS SHOULD REDUCE WIND SHEAR BUT THERE
COULD STILL BE CONSIDERABLE CHOP FROM THE SFC TO 2K FT OR SO.
SCT CUMULUS FIELD MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN SPLNS/ROLLING
PLAINS SUNDAY AFTN AS MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
SHORT TERM...
ONLY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS DEGREE OF
MOISTURE ADVECTION OVERNIGHT AS A NOCTURNAL SOUTHERLY LLJ RAMPS UP
ONCE AGAIN. RECENT REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS REVEAL THE LEADING EDGE OF
50+F DEWPOINTS HAS ALREADY NUDGED INTO THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS WITHIN
A BACKING LL FLOW. WEAK PRESSURE FALLS MEANWHILE AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LOW WEST OF THE BIG BEND SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MOISTURE
ADVECTION AREA WIDE THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE DRIEST AIR
PERSISTING ACROSS OUR WRN ZONES. SLOW REMOVAL OF THIS DRY AIR
ON THE CAPROCK SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT RAPID COOLING LATE TONIGHT
WHICH WILL FURTHER ASSIST IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS PATCHY LIGHT FOG BY SUN MORNING...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS
OBSERVED THIS MORNING FROM ABI SOUTHWEST TO SJT. OTHERWISE THE ONLY
OTHER EFFECT FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
CIRRIFORM CLOUDS AS THIS FEATURE TRANSITIONS INTO AN OPEN WAVE ON
SUNDAY AND TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA. IMPROVED LL MOISTURE ON
SUNDAY AND REDUCED THIKNESSES SHOULD HINDER THE DEEP MIXING
OBSERVED TODAY AND THIS WILL SUPPORT A ROUND OF SLIGHTLY COOLER
MAX TEMPS.
LONG TERM...
FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS CENTERED ON THE IMPACTS OF AN
EARLY WEEK FROPA.
NEAR ZONAL FLOW IS PROGGED TO BUCKLE/AMPLIFY MONDAY TOWARD A
DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST PATTERN. THIS WILL AID
THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF A 1030MB SURFACE HIGH FROM THE GREAT BASIN
OVER THE DIVIDE AND THROUGH THE PLAINS. FROPA IS EXPECTED LOCALLY
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY...AND MODEL SIGNALS FOR STRATUS
REMAIN IN BOTH THE PRE AND POST FRONTAL AIRMASSES. SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO DPICT LIGHT QPF ALONG AND IN WAKE OF THE FRONT.
HOWEVER SIGNALS FOR NOTABLE FORCING/ASCENT ARE LACKING UNDER
BUILDING HEIGHTS AS THE MENTIONED UA RIDGE AXIS TRANSLATES
EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY EARLY TUESDAY. THUS REMAIN
RELUCTANT TO INCREASE POPS ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCE /20 PERCENT/...BUT
WILL INTRODUCE A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH FROPA AS WEAK INSTABILITY
IS PROGGED...AND WILL WEIGHT WEATHER GRIDS TOWARD FOG/DRIZZLE GIVEN
SATURATED LOW LEVEL PROFILES AND WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TOWARD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF AN EVOLVING BROAD WESTERN U.S. TROUGH MID/LATE
WEEK. THIS WILL PROMOTE LEE TROUGHING/MODERATION. SOLUTIONS CONTINUE
TO DIFFER IN HANDLING THE EVENTUAL EJECTION OF THIS TROUGH OVER
THE ROCKIES/PLAINS LATE WEEK...BUT HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A NORTHERN
TRACK. THUS HAVE DELAYED THE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF RAIN/COOL TEMPS
UNTIL THE ASSOCIATED FROPA SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...
AN ATTEMPTED AG BURN IN NORTHERN BAILEY COUNTY ESCAPED THIS
ATERNOON AND GREW INTO A LARGE GRASS FIRE. ALTHOUGH LOCAL RFW
CRITERIA ARE NOT THREATENED...WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ACTUALLY
MODERATELY SUPPORTIVE OF WILDFIRE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHWEST
ZONES PER A LOCAL STUDY...MAINLY DUE TO ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPS...
VERY DRY AIR /RH NR 10 PERCENT/...AND MODEST BREEZES. THUS HAVE
ADDRESSED THIS WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND HAZARD PRODUCT
GIVEN POSSIBILITY FOR ADDITIONAL ATTEMPTS OF SEASONAL AG BURNS IN
THAT AREA. TEMPS/RH WILL IMPROVE NOTABLY BY SUNSET...BUT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
33
000
FXUS64 KCRP 080547
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1147 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH TX ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER TO MVFR/IFR AS LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG DVLP ACROSS MAINLY
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. A SFC TROF OVER THE GULF IS MOVG N
AND BRINGING SCT SHRA`S TOWARD S TX. AM EXPECTING RAIN CHANCES TO
INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS THIS LOW REACHES NEAR THE
MIDDLE TX COAST AND AN UPPER LOW SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION
PROVIDING ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR TSRA`S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BEST
TSRA`S CHCS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE TROF AND UPPER
DISTURBANCE ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH FOG
THE MAIN CONCERN ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 903 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...MOISTURE HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE AREA WHICH IS
EVIDENT IN THE 00Z CRP SOUNDING. AM NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
FOG DVLPMNT TONIGHT DUE TO A BKN CLOUD DECK OVHD...ALTHOUGH WHERE
THERE ARE BREAKS...BRIEF FOG DVLPMNT IS POSSIBLE WITH VSBY`S
LOWERING AT TIMES TO AROUND 1-3SM. MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THEN RAIN
CHANCES SHIFT INLAND AND INCREASE TO LIKELY ON SUNDAY DUE TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER LOW. THE OTHER MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE LOW IN THE
GULF MOVG N TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND INCREASING NE WINDS ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS WHICH IN TURN WILL LEAD TO MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW
ALONG THE BEACHES BY SUNDAY. CURRENT FCST IS ON TRACK WITH THESE
FEATURES...THEREFORE WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...A RATHER COMPLEX AVIATION WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING
UP OVER SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THE MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK CURRENTLY ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN LIFTING
NORTHEAST BY 12Z SUN. THIS SHOULD SLOW THE DEVELOPMENT/DECREASE
THE INTENSITY OF RADIATIONAL FOG ACROSS THE INLAND SECTIONS
TONIGHT. MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A KALI-
KBEA-KVCT LINE BETWEEN 10Z-14Z AS A RESULT...THEN SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR BETWEEN 14Z-15Z. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO TONIGHT SHOULD ENTER THE WESTERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY
SUNDAY MORNING...THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN
GULF SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE SHOULD GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
12Z-18Z SUN...THEN INCREASING AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOULD AID IN
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT GENERALLY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 16 18Z-24Z SUN. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY...WITH TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEAR CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...VIGOROUS DETACHED
S/WV TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST FROM BAJA TO NRN MEXICO THIS AFTN. THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS S/CEN TEXAS SUN AND SUN EVENING PROVIDING
LARGE SCALE LIFT AND SOME MODEST MID LEVEL COOLING TO THE REGION.
THE BEST LIFT WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 18Z AND 24Z SUN...TAPERING OFF IN
THE EVENING. THE GULF LOW ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL SLOWLY
MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD AND IS ACTUALLY SOMEWHAT UNFORTUNATE
AS IS WILL ACTUALLY LIMIT RETURN FLOW...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ACROSS S TX. HOWEVER...THE LOW MAY REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SE THAT
SIGNIFICANT SUBSIDENCE ON THE WRN SIDE DOES NOT REACH THE AREA
UNTIL SUN NIGHT. ALSO...IT STILL APPEARS ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
PRESENT TO PROVIDE SCT TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSTMS ON SUN GIVEN
STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOC W/ THE UPR SYSTEM TO THE WEST. OVERALL
INSTABILITY IS NOT GREAT WITH CAPES GENERALLY BELOW 1000 J/KG AND
SHEAR IS NOT STRONG SO UNLESS THINGS HEAT UP MUCH MORE THAN
ANTICIPATED...APPEARS SVR TSTMS SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE. ECMWF IS
MOST AGGRESSIVE W/ QPF SHOWING 1/2-1 INCH TOTAL RAINFALL ACROSS
CEN ZONES...WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE. THE ECM IS
PROBABLY A BIT AGGRESSIVE...BUT ISOLD AMOUNTS AROUND 1 INCH OR
LITTLE HIGH MAY BE POSSIBLE. BEST POPS IN LIKELY RANGE WILL OCCUR
ACROSS CEN/ERN ZONES ON SUN BUT WILL KEEP LINGERING SLT CHC-CHC
POPS SUN NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS IN WRN ZONES AT 00Z.
GIVEN INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...THINK FOG SHOULD NOT BE
AN ISSUE NEXT FEW NIGHTS.
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...A POTENT SRN STREAM S/WV WL
MOVE QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF THE CWA ON MONDAY
MORNING. THE S/WV WL TAKE THE SFC LOW ORIGINATING FROM THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE EWD TWDS IDA. HOWEVER...THE MAIN EFFECT WL BE INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MON AS RIDGING AT ALL LVLS BUILDS
INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTHWEST. A STRONG RDG AXIS ALOFT WITH THEN
BUILD INTO THE CWA THROUGH THURSDAY. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER
AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT/WED BEHIND A WK COLD FNT. THIS
FNT WL BE DRAWN THROUGH THE CWA AS DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LOW MERGES WITH IDA ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF. MOISTURE WL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY FRI AS THE SFC RDG AXIS
FINALLY WEAKENS AND ALLOWS ONSHORE FLOW TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP.
CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION ON SAT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SRN STREAM
S/WV WL ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED PCPN. GENERALLY WENT
WITH A BLEND OF GFS AND ENSEMBLE MOS TEMPS THROUGH THE PD. TIDAL
LVLS WL LKLY REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MIDWEEK...ESPECIALLY ON MON DUE
TO ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDES AND LARGE SWELLS FROM BOTH THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND IDA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 67 79 64 80 60 / 20 70 30 10 0
VICTORIA 62 77 60 77 57 / 10 70 40 10 0
LAREDO 66 86 64 83 60 / 10 40 10 10 0
ALICE 64 81 63 82 58 / 10 70 30 10 0
ROCKPORT 68 79 65 79 62 / 20 70 40 10 0
COTULLA 62 77 61 83 56 / 10 40 10 10 0
KINGSVILLE 65 80 64 81 59 / 20 70 30 10 0
NAVY CORPUS 70 79 67 79 64 / 20 70 30 10 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TE/81...SHORT TERM
AT/15...LONG TERM
000
FXUS64 KAMA 080547 AAC
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1147 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.AVIATION...
APPROACHING UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE THE FIRST
IMPACT...PRIMARILY EAST OF THE TAF LOCATIONS. RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW
FOR KAMA...KDHT AND KGUY SO WE KEPT OUT ANY MENTION OF SHRA/TSRA.
COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD OVER KGUY. LOW CLOUDS
ARE LIKELY TO FILTER INTO THE AREA WITH THE PRIMARY CONCERN AFTER 06Z
BASED ON THE SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
NUNEZ
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 927 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
UPDATE...
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS
EVENING IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROF CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. ADDITIONAL
HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEING PULLED NORTH INTO WEST TX ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE LEE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE SHORT
TERM WHICH WILL KEEP SOUTH TO SOUTH WINDS UP A BIT. THE SURFACE TROF
IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD RELAX THE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT...BUT A PERSISTENT DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PUSH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. IT SHOULD NOT BE
QUITE AS WARM AS TODAY BUT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S SHOULD BE IN
ORDER DESPITE THE INCREASE HIGH CLOUD COVER. THE COLD FRONT IS STILL
ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES SUNDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER AND CLOUDY
CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY WITH CONTINUED CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION.
SKY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR SATELLITE TRENDS AND
WIND/DEWPOINT GRIDS WERE TWEAKED WITH LATEST GUIDANCE. OTHER CHANGES
WERE RELATIVELY MINOR OVERNIGHT. MAX TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED UP IN MOST
AREAS FOR SUNDAY AS WELL. THE UPDATED FORECAST HAS BEEN SENT.
JOHNSON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
AVIATION...
A SUBTLE CHANGE TO THE NORM IS EXPECTED SUNDAY EVENING AS AN UPPER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MEXICO EJECTS INTO SOUTH TEXAS.
SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO STREAM NORTHWARD ON
SUNDAY...HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
THE UPCOMING 09/00Z FORECAST.
ALSO...A COLD FRONT COULD EDGE INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT. ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
MAY BE DELAYED INTO THE EVENING HOURS WHEN THE LOWER LEVELS FINALLY
SATURATE.
NUNEZ
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...
ONE MORE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY DAY SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE PANHANDLES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY BY 21Z SUNDAY FROM NORTHEAST
NM INTO CENTRAL KS. THE FRONT WILL THEN BEGIN MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
AGAIN ACROSS THE PANHANDLES SUNDAY EVENING...PUSHING ACROSS ALL OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE EAST OUT OF
EASTERN CO AND EASTERN NM BY LATE SUNDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS
GRIDS AND FORECAST IS TO INTRODUCE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SUNDAY
NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE PANHANDLES WITH BOTH THE COLD FRONT AND
UPPER TROUGH PROVIDING LIFT...AND WINDS BACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION.
ALSO...CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS MOS INDICATING VISIBILITIES OF NEAR ONE MILE
OR LESS IN FOG FOR KAMA BY 12Z MONDAY. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
WATCH CLOSELY IN THE EVENT THAT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY BECOMES
NECESSARY. MUCH COOLER WITH CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS MONDAY...NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT DRY. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN
OVER THE PANHANDLES BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH
TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NM AND EASTERN CO BY WEDNESDAY. UNSEASONABLY
WARM AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ALSO...AS LEE
SIDE TROUGH DEEPENS...PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN UP AND ALLOW FOR
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BY LATE NEXT WEEK. NEXT COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING MUCH
COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND. LEFT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ALONE FOR NOW ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE LOW THIS FAR OUT IN THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF AND GFS SEEM TO
BE BACKING OFF FROM ANY PRECIP WITH THE 12Z RUN AND SLOWING DOWN THE
TIMING OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN REGION
LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE ALSO LOW IN THE MODELS IN HANDLING THIS
NEXT SYSTEM. WILL JUST LEAVE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ALONE FOR NOW.
SCHNEIDER
FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL LESSEN SUNDAY INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS
MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
EARLY IN THE WEEK. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS AROUND THE MIDDLE TO
END OF NEXT WEEK...WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...ALONG WITH BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS MAY INCREASE THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THAT TIME.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
08/24
000
FXUS64 KEWX 080543
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1143 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...
BKN MID LVL CLDS EXPECTED TO KEEP DENSE FOG FROM DEVELOPING AS
MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. VSBYS OF 1-3 MILES IN FOG BTWN 09Z-
15Z IN I-35 CORRIDOR TAFS WITH LOW CLOUDS OF 6 HND TO 12 HND FT
THRU 15Z-17Z. SCT TSRA SUN AFTN AS UPR TROF LIFTS NEWD ACROSS
AREA. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO PREVAIL WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO NORTHEAST LATE IN PERIOD IN 30 HR TAFS AT KAUS AND KSAT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 756 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
UPDATE...
WILL ISSUE AN NPW FOR DENSE FOG AT 8 PM...VALID FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM
SUNDAY. DECIDED THAT EVEN THOUGH MID-LEVEL CLOUDCOVER AND WARMER
GROUND/BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DELAY AND/OR LIMIT FOG FORMATION...
THERE STILL SHOULD BE ENOUGH FAVORABLE FACTORS FOR DENSE FOG ALONG
THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT...LOW LYING AREAS OF ATASCOSA COUNTY...AND
IN THE TREES OF BASTROP COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT PATCHY FOG WITH
WIDELY VARYING VISIBILITY FROM 1/2 TO 3 MILES. OTHERWISE...THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...
INITIAL PATTERN IS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST BACK ACROSS NORTHERN TX INTO NM WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
BAJA PENINSULA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND STRETCHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST TO CENTRAL TX. THIS SET UP
WILL LEAD TO A CLOUDLESS EVENING AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
EXPECT THIS TO BRING A REPEAT OF MORNING FOG..THE WORST OF WHICH
WILL BE ALONG THE ESCARPMENT AND DOWN I37. WE MAY NEED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY...BUT WILL LET LATER SHIFTS SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP.
LATER ON SUN THE TROUGH IN THE WEST WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO INTO TX. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS. DEEP
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AND BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST.
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
STARTING MON...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ABOVE OUR
AREA RETURNING DRY AND WARM WEATHER.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 61 74 61 77 60 / - 30 20 - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 56 74 58 77 56 / - 30 20 - 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 55 74 59 77 56 / - 30 20 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 56 70 58 73 56 / - 20 20 0 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 61 75 60 77 56 / - 10 - 0 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 58 73 59 75 57 / - 20 20 - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 55 75 60 77 58 / - 30 20 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 56 74 59 76 58 / - 30 20 - 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 57 75 61 77 58 / - 40 20 - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 57 74 60 77 59 / - 30 20 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 58 75 60 76 58 / - 30 20 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BASTROP...BEXAR...COMAL...GUADALUPE...HAYS...
MEDINA...TRAVIS...UVALDE...WILLIAMSON.
&&
$$
26/07
000
FXUS64 KSJT 080525 AAB
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1125 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS IN THE 1000-1500 FT RANGE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP/ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT. CLOUD
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING...BUT STILL
EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
INTO TEXAS. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION.
AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS IN THE 1000-1500 FT RANGE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP/ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TONIGHT...
AIDED BY DEVELOPMENT OF LOW-LEVEL JET. CLOUD CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING...BUT STILL EXPECT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY...MAINLY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND INTO
TEXAS. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
SHORT TERM...
CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL OPEN AND MOVE
EAST ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
INITIALLY THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER
STRATUS DECK EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A DEVELOPING 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH MIXING TO LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BUT COULD
SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING
CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S. LOW CLOUDS MAY BE SLOW TO SCATTER OUT TOMORROW MORNING
AS MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH LIMIT
MIXING POTENTIAL INITIALLY. CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN A BIT COOLER
TEMPS SUNDAY BUT STILL NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES WITH
HIGHS MAINLY LOWER 70S. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NW HILL COUNTRY AND HEARTLAND SUN AFTERNOON
WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE WILL EXIST BUT ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED
TO BE VERY LIGHT.
LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE LOCATED EAST
OF THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST OVER PRIMARILY
THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY AND EASTERN HEARTLAND SUNDAY EVENING.
DRY FORECAST IS ON TAP MONDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EAST OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT OVER PRIMARILY
THE NORTHERN CWA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN
CHANCES END AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LOW. NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN STATES THE FIRST OF THE WEEK AND THEN
THROUGH THE UPPER PLAINS BY LATE IN THE WEEK. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS THE BEST DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
POST FRONTAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S
TUESDAY... WARMING INTO THE 70S OVER ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BY
THURSDAY. NEXT UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE IS FORECASTED THROUGH THE AREA
OVER THE COMING WEEKEND...WITH NO ASSOCIATED RAINFALL EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 55 73 52 74 47 / 10 10 10 10 20
SAN ANGELO 55 73 52 76 47 / 10 10 10 10 10
JUNCTION 55 73 54 77 48 / 10 20 20 10 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/99
000
FXUS64 KHGX 080517
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1117 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.AVIATION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE ONGOING SET OF TAFS. T/TD SPREAD NARROWING
ACROSS THE REGION. SAT PIX SHOW SOME TEMPORARY BREAKS IN THE
CIRRUS. THIS ALONG WITH GRADUAL INCREASING LLVL MOISTURE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME LOW CIGS AND/OR FOG TO DEVELOP. CIGS SHOULD BE SLOW
TO RISE SUN MORNING AND MAY STAY IN THE MVFR TERRITORY FOR SOME
LOCATIONS FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY. RAIN STARTING TO SHOW UP ON
RADAR WELL OFFSHORE. MODELS GENERALLY SHOW THIS MAKING ITS WAY
TOWARD THE COAST TOWARD MID MORNING ABOUT THE SAME TIME SOME
UPPER IMPULSES START MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. PERIODIC -RA/SHRA
SHOULD PERSIST THRU THE AFTN HOURS GENERALLY S OF A CLL-LIBERTY
LINE. REST OF THE FCST HINGES ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROF/LOW
MOVING UP THE WRN GULF. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS MOST OF THE PRECIP
REMAINS OFFSHORE AND OFF INTO LA AFTER SUNSET BUT WOULDN`T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME WRAP-AROUND SHRA THRU THE EVNG AFFECTING IAH
S/SEWD. 47
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1053 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
LOWER PRESSURES OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND THE ENTRY OF WEAK
HURRICANE IDA INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF (BETWEEN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA) WILL KEEP THE OFFSHORE EAST-TO-WEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHT/MID-HIGH CLOUDS ADVECTING ONSHORE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. PER
THESE ENHANCED EASTERLIES...AND UPPER TEXAS TIDES AT OR NEAR HIGH
TIDE...LEVELS ARE BETWEEN 2.5 TO 3.5 FEET GOING INTO THE 10 PM
HOUR. THUS...EXPECT MINOR COASTAL FLOODING UP THE COAST FROM
FREEPORT THAT THE COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT AND WATCH HAS COVERED
THROUGH MONDAY. INCREASED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TOMORROW MAINLY DUE
TO DIFFULENCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS PER DECENT SPREADING DOWNSTREAM
OF A WESTERN TX UPPER TROUGH/EASTERN TEXAS FALLING IN FAVORABLE
RRQ BY MID-DAY TOMORROW. MODEL SOUNDINGS NOT INDICATING MUCH IN
THE WAY ANY SIGNIFICANT INTERIOR STORM INITIATION NOR
COVERAGE...MAIN THREAT FOR SUNDAY STORMS (HIGHER QPF) PRIMARILY
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN/UPPER TX COASTAL REGIONS/NW GULF DUE
TO THIS AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN GULF DISTURBANCE AND VICINITY OF
IDA. 31
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 60 76 60 77 58 / 10 30 20 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 60 76 62 77 59 / 10 40 40 20 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 67 74 65 74 63 / 10 50 50 30 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM 3 AM CST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMAF 080511
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1111 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOME LOW STRATUS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING ACROSS WEST TEXAS. WE
WILL PUT IN A LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR GROUP AT KMAF FROM 06Z TO 10Z
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS SEVERAL OF THE
TERMINALS FOR CEILINGS AND OR FOG. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
FROM MID SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT THE TERMINALS.
FOG AND OR LOW CLOUDS MAY RETURN AFTER 06Z MONDAY...BUT WILL LET
LATER SHIFTS TAKE A CLOSER LOOK.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
78
000
FXUS64 KHGX 080453
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR IDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1053 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.UPDATE...
LOWER PRESSURES OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND THE ENTRY OF WEAK
HURRICANE IDA INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF (BETWEEN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA) WILL KEEP THE OFFSHORE EAST-TO-WEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHT/MID-HIGH CLOUDS ADVECTING ONSHORE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. PER
THESE ENHANCED EASTERLIES...AND UPPER TEXAS TIDES AT OR NEAR HIGH
TIDE...LEVELS ARE BETWEEN 2.5 TO 3.5 FEET GOING INTO THE 10 PM HOUR.
THUS...EXPECT MINOR COASTAL FLOODING UP THE COAST FROM FREEPORT THAT
THE COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT AND WATCH HAS COVERED THROUGH MONDAY.
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TOMORROW MAINLY DUE TO DIFFULENCE IN
THE UPPER LEVELS PER DECENT SPREADING DOWNSTREAM OF A WESTERN TX
UPPER TROUGH/EASTERN TEXAS FALLING IN FAVORABLE RRQ BY MID-DAY
TOMORROW. MODEL SOUNDINGS NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY ANY
SIGNIFICANT INTERIOR STORM INITIATION NOR COVERAGE...MAIN THREAT FOR
SUNDAY STORMS (HIGHER QPF) PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN/UPPER TX COASTAL REGIONS/NW GULF DUE TO THIS
AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN GULF DISTURBANCE AND VICINITY OF IDA. 31
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
AVIATION...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWING LIGHTER WINDS INLAND
TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOWING CIGS/VIS OVERNIGHT...ESP IAH
NWD WHERE IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT OR BEFORE SUNRISE.
SLIGHTLY BETTER CONDITIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE WINDS WILL BE
HIGHER BUT STILL ANTICIPATE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS. ONLY SLOW
IMPROVEMENT SUN MORNING TO VFR CATEGORY INLAND DURING LATE MORNING
OR ERLY AFTN. INCREASING MOISTURE AND POSSIBLY SOME -RA/SHRA
CLOSER TO THE COAST IN THE AFTN. 47
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SUNDAY ACROSS COASTAL WATERS AS
SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPEN OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF.
THIS WILL BE MORE EVIDENT SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH FLOW BECOMING
NORTHEAST AND STRENGTHENING MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS
AND GALVESTON COUNTIES. AS MENTIONED IN CWFHGX HIGHEST TIDE LEVELS
ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY NIGHT. TIDE LEVELS
BETWEEN 3.8 AND 4.6 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA AND THE WEST END OF
GALVESTON ISLAND. POPS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUR FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES WILL HAVE HIGHER CHANCES WITH CHANCES LOWERING
NORTHWESTWARD. SURFACE TROUGH/LOW WILL MOVE TOWARDS
LOUISIANA/ALABAMA MONDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES RAPIDLY DIMINISHING
OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES. ASIDE FROM THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING
OUR REGION SUNDAY THE NORTHWEST ZONES WILL HAVE LOWER RAIN CHANCES
AS HIGHEST PWATS WILL BE MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF CWFA.
IT WILL BE DRY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILING. WE DID NOT CHANGE THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THIS
PACKAGE WHICH INCLUDES NEXT WEEKEND DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES THUS
LEAVING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. 37
MARINE...
WINDS ON THE INCREASE AND WITH CURRENT SET OF MODELS AND FORECAST
WINDS HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS FROM BRAZORIA TO
GALVESTON TO CHAMBERS COUNTY. TIDES RUNNING 0.7-1.3 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL ALREADY AND WILL PEAK SUNDAY NIGHT WITH STRONGER ENE WINDS
OVER THE COAST. BOLIVAR THE MOST IMPACTED...ELSEWHERE PLENTY OF
BEACH FLOODING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 60 76 60 77 58 / 10 30 20 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 60 76 62 77 59 / 10 40 40 20 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 67 74 65 74 63 / 10 50 50 30 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM 3 AM CST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...31/47
000
FXUS64 KHGX 080342
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
941 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.UPDATE...
LOWER PRESSURES OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND THE ENTRY OF TD (OR WEAK
HURRICANE?) IDA INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF (BETWEEN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA) WILL KEEP THE OFFSHORE EAST-TO-WEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHT/MID-HIGH CLOUDS ADVECTING ONSHORE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. PER
THESE ENHANCED EASTERLIES...AND UPPER TEXAS TIDES AT OR NEAR HIGH
TIDE...LEVELS ARE BETWEEN 2.5 TO 3.5 FEET GOING INTO THE 10 PM
HOUR. THUS...EXPECT MINOR COASTAL FLOODING UP THE COAST FROM
FREEPORT THAT THE COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT AND WATCH HAS COVERED
THROUGH MONDAY. INCREASED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TOMORROW MAINLY DUE TO
DIFFULENCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS PER DECENT SPREADING DOWNSTREAM OF A
WESTERN TX UPPER TROUGH/EASTERN TEXAS FALLING IN FAVORABLE RRQ BY
MID-DAY TOMORROW. MODEL SOUNDINGS NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY ANY
SIGNIFICANT INTERIOR STORM INITIATION NOR COVERAGE...MAIN THREAT FOR
SUNDAY STORMS (HIGHER QPF) PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN/UPPER TX COASTAL REGIONS/NW GULF DUE TO THIS
AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN GULF DISTURBANCE AND VICINITY OF IDA. 31
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
AVIATION...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWING LIGHTER WINDS INLAND
TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOWING CIGS/VIS OVERNIGHT...ESP IAH
NWD WHERE IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT OR BEFORE SUNRISE.
SLIGHTLY BETTER CONDITIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE WINDS WILL BE
HIGHER BUT STILL ANTICIPATE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS. ONLY SLOW
IMPROVEMENT SUN MORNING TO VFR CATEGORY INLAND DURING LATE MORNING
OR ERLY AFTN. INCREASING MOISTURE AND POSSIBLY SOME -RA/SHRA
CLOSER TO THE COAST IN THE AFTN. 47
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SUNDAY ACROSS COASTAL WATERS AS
SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPEN OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF.
THIS WILL BE MORE EVIDENT SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH FLOW BECOMING
NORTHEAST AND STRENGTHENING MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS
AND GALVESTON COUNTIES. AS MENTIONED IN CWFHGX HIGHEST TIDE LEVELS
ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY NIGHT. TIDE LEVELS
BETWEEN 3.8 AND 4.6 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA AND THE WEST END OF
GALVESTON ISLAND. POPS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUR FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES WILL HAVE HIGHER CHANCES WITH CHANCES LOWERING
NORTHWESTWARD. SURFACE TROUGH/LOW WILL MOVE TOWARDS
LOUISIANA/ALABAMA MONDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES RAPIDLY DIMINISHING
OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES. ASIDE FROM THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING
OUR REGION SUNDAY THE NORTHWEST ZONES WILL HAVE LOWER RAIN CHANCES
AS HIGHEST PWATS WILL BE MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF CWFA.
IT WILL BE DRY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILING. WE DID NOT CHANGE THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THIS
PACKAGE WHICH INCLUDES NEXT WEEKEND DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES THUS
LEAVING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. 37
MARINE...
WINDS ON THE INCREASE AND WITH CURRENT SET OF MODELS AND FORECAST
WINDS HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS FROM BRAZORIA TO
GALVESTON TO CHAMBERS COUNTY. TIDES RUNNING 0.7-1.3 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL ALREADY AND WILL PEAK SUNDAY NIGHT WITH STRONGER ENE WINDS
OVER THE COAST. BOLIVAR THE MOST IMPACTED...ELSEWHERE PLENTY OF
BEACH FLOODING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 60 76 60 77 58 / 10 30 20 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 60 76 62 77 59 / 10 40 40 20 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 67 74 65 74 63 / 10 50 50 30 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM 3 AM CST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...31/47
000
FXUS64 KHGX 080341
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
941 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.UPDATE...
LOWER PRESSURES OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND THE ENTRY OF TD (OR WEAK
HURRICANE?) IDA INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF (BETWEEN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA) WILL KEEP THE OFFSHORE EAST-TO-WEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHT/MID-HIGH CLOUDS ADVECTING ONSHORE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. PER
THESE ENHANCED EASTERLIES...AND UPPER TEXAS TIDES AT OR NEAR HIGH
TIDE...LEVELS ARE BETWEEN 2.5 TO 3.5 FEET GOING INTO THE 10 PM
HOUR. THUS...EXPECT MINOR COASTAL FLOODING UP THE COAST FROM
FREEPORT THAT THE COASTAL STATEMENT AND WATCH HAS COVERED THROUGH
MONDAY. INCREASED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TOMORROW MAINLY DUE TO
DIFFULENCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS PER DECENT SPREADING DOWNSTREAM OF
A WESTERN TX UPPER TROUGH/EASTERN TEXAS FALLING IN FAVORABLE RRQ
BY MID-DAY TOMORROW. MODEL SOUNDINGS NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE
WAY ANY SIGNIFICANT INTERIOR STORM INITIATION NOR COVERAGE...MAIN
THREAT FOR SUNDAY STORMS (HIGHER QPF) PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN/UPPER TX COASTAL REGIONS/NW GULF DUE TO THIS AFOREMENTIONED
WESTERN GULF DISTURBANCE AND VICINITY OF IDA. 31
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
AVIATION...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWING LIGHTER WINDS INLAND
TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOWING CIGS/VIS OVERNIGHT...ESP IAH
NWD WHERE IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT OR BEFORE SUNRISE.
SLIGHTLY BETTER CONDITIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE WINDS WILL BE
HIGHER BUT STILL ANTICIPATE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS. ONLY SLOW
IMPROVEMENT SUN MORNING TO VFR CATEGORY INLAND DURING LATE MORNING
OR ERLY AFTN. INCREASING MOISTURE AND POSSIBLY SOME -RA/SHRA
CLOSER TO THE COAST IN THE AFTN. 47
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SUNDAY ACROSS COASTAL WATERS AS
SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPEN OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF.
THIS WILL BE MORE EVIDENT SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH FLOW BECOMING
NORTHEAST AND STRENGTHENING MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS
AND GALVESTON COUNTIES. AS MENTIONED IN CWFHGX HIGHEST TIDE LEVELS
ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY NIGHT. TIDE LEVELS
BETWEEN 3.8 AND 4.6 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA AND THE WEST END OF
GALVESTON ISLAND. POPS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUR FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES WILL HAVE HIGHER CHANCES WITH CHANCES LOWERING
NORTHWESTWARD. SURFACE TROUGH/LOW WILL MOVE TOWARDS
LOUISIANA/ALABAMA MONDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES RAPIDLY DIMINISHING
OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES. ASIDE FROM THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING
OUR REGION SUNDAY THE NORTHWEST ZONES WILL HAVE LOWER RAIN CHANCES
AS HIGHEST PWATS WILL BE MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF CWFA.
IT WILL BE DRY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILING. WE DID NOT CHANGE THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THIS
PACKAGE WHICH INCLUDES NEXT WEEKEND DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES THUS
LEAVING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. 37
MARINE...
WINDS ON THE INCREASE AND WITH CURRENT SET OF MODELS AND FORECAST
WINDS HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS FROM BRAZORIA TO
GALVESTON TO CHAMBERS COUNTY. TIDES RUNNING 0.7-1.3 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL ALREADY AND WILL PEAK SUNDAY NIGHT WITH STRONGER ENE WINDS
OVER THE COAST. BOLIVAR THE MOST IMPACTED...ELSEWHERE PLENTY OF
BEACH FLOODING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 60 76 60 77 58 / 10 30 20 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 60 76 62 77 59 / 10 40 40 20 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 67 74 65 74 63 / 10 50 50 30 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM 3 AM CST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...31/47
000
FXUS64 KAMA 080327 AAB
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
927 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.UPDATE...
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS
EVENING IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROF CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. ADDITIONAL
HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEING PULLED NORTH INTO WEST TX ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE LEE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE SHORT
TERM WHICH WILL KEEP SOUTH TO SOUTH WINDS UP A BIT. THE SURFACE TROF
IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD RELAX THE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT...BUT A PERSISTENT DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PUSH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. IT SHOULD NOT BE
QUITE AS WARM AS TODAY BUT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S SHOULD BE IN
ORDER DESPITE THE INCREASE HIGH CLOUD COVER. THE COLD FRONT IS STILL
ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES SUNDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER AND CLOUDY
CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY WITH CONTINUED CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION.
SKY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR SATELLITE TRENDS AND
WIND/DEWPOINT GRIDS WERE TWEAKED WITH LATEST GUIDANCE. OTHER CHANGES
WERE RELATIVELY MINOR OVERNIGHT. MAX TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED UP IN MOST
AREAS FOR SUNDAY AS WELL. THE UPDATED FORECAST HAS BEEN SENT.
JOHNSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
AVIATION...
A SUBTLE CHANGE TO THE NORM IS EXPECTED SUNDAY EVENING AS AN UPPER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MEXICO EJECTS INTO SOUTH TEXAS.
SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO STREAM NORTHWARD ON
SUNDAY...HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
THE UPCOMING 09/00Z FORECAST.
ALSO...A COLD FRONT COULD EDGE INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT. ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
MAY BE DELAYED INTO THE EVENING HOURS WHEN THE LOWER LEVELS FINALLY
SATURATE.
NUNEZ
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...
ONE MORE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY DAY SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE PANHANDLES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY BY 21Z SUNDAY FROM NORTHEAST
NM INTO CENTRAL KS. THE FRONT WILL THEN BEGIN MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
AGAIN ACROSS THE PANHANDLES SUNDAY EVENING...PUSHING ACROSS ALL OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE EAST OUT OF
EASTERN CO AND EASTERN NM BY LATE SUNDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS
GRIDS AND FORECAST IS TO INTRODUCE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SUNDAY
NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE PANHANDLES WITH BOTH THE COLD FRONT AND
UPPER TROUGH PROVIDING LIFT...AND WINDS BACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION.
ALSO...CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS MOS INDICATING VISIBILITIES OF NEAR ONE MILE
OR LESS IN FOG FOR KAMA BY 12Z MONDAY. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
WATCH CLOSELY IN THE EVENT THAT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY BECOMES
NECESSARY. MUCH COOLER WITH CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS MONDAY...NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT DRY. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN
OVER THE PANHANDLES BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH
TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NM AND EASTERN CO BY WEDNESDAY. UNSEASONABLY
WARM AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ALSO...AS LEE
SIDE TROUGH DEEPENS...PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN UP AND ALLOW FOR
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BY LATE NEXT WEEK. NEXT COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING MUCH
COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND. LEFT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ALONE FOR NOW ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE LOW THIS FAR OUT IN THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF AND GFS SEEM TO
BE BACKING OFF FROM ANY PRECIP WITH THE 12Z RUN AND SLOWING DOWN THE
TIMING OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN REGION
LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE ALSO LOW IN THE MODELS IN HANDLING THIS
NEXT SYSTEM. WILL JUST LEAVE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ALONE FOR NOW.
SCHNEIDER
FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL LESSEN SUNDAY INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS
MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
EARLY IN THE WEEK. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS AROUND THE MIDDLE TO
END OF NEXT WEEK...WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...ALONG WITH BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS MAY INCREASE THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THAT TIME.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
24/08
000
FXUS64 KFWD 080317 AAB
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
917 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATE FOR CLOUDS AND COSMETICS. NO CHANGE TO FORECASTS. 84
&&
.AVIATION...
633 PM
EXPECT ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT. HAVE FORECASTED IFR CEILINGS INTO WACO BY 08Z...AND
INTO THE METROPLEX BY 10Z. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR
15-17Z....AND TO VFR AFTER 18Z IN THE METROPLEX...AND 21Z AT
WACO. RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ARE TOO LOW TO
MENTION AT THIS TIME. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 8 TO 12 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL. 58
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
353 PM
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST SOUTH OF NM AND AZ AT FORECAST
TIME. 12Z MODELS ALL KICK THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OUT NORTHEAST OVER
THE NEXT 24 HRS SPREADING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER
NORTH TX BEGINNING LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND EXTENDING THROUGH
ABOUT MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. 20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER LVL
PV ANALYSIS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
BAJA PENINSULA AND INTO MEXICO. MODELS SEEM TO POINT TO THIS
FEATURE AS BEING AT LEAST PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR DEVELOPING A
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER THE GOMEX DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. THIS
AREA OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE A SFC
LOW/INVERTED TROUGH TO DEEPEN NEAR THE TX/LA COAST BACKING THE LOW
LVL WINDS ALONG THE GULF COAST...EFFECTIVELY LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OF DEEPER GULF MOISTURE INTO NORTH TX
FOR SUNDAY. 12Z MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN SHEARING OUT THE UPPER LVL
PV ANOMALY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE CWA HERE STARTING 12Z
SUNDAY. DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAKER UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG OVER NORTH
TX AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...SO HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. THE AREAS EXPECTED TO SEE THE DEEPEST GULF
MOISTURE RETURN IN THE CWA ARE THOSE AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE
WACO AREA. AREAS IN NORTH TX THAT RECEIVE THE BEST GULF MOISTURE
ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE
GENERAL SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
IN THE BROAD FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. AS THE TROUGH DEPARTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER SUNRISE
ON MONDAY...ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH AS
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE SPREADS OVER THE REGION.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE COLD/PACIFIC FRONT STILL LOOKS ON
TRACK TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTH TX MONDAY NIGHT. 12Z MODEL
RUNS ARE NOW BRINGING SOME UPPER LVL SUPPORT ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE FORM OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH OK AND THE RED RIVER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
BECAUSE OF THE UPPER LVL SUPPORT...INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAIN SHOWERS FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LOOKING TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. DID NOT SPREAD POPS FURTHER SOUTH AS FORCING
ALONG THE FRONT BY ITSELF DOES NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. BEHIND THE FRONT...SKIES SHOULD BEGIN
TO CLEAR OUT FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LVL RIDGING BUILDS
BACK OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...IN GENERAL UPPER LVL RIDGING LOOKS TO
HOLD OVER THE FORECAST AREA ALLOWING FOR A DRY FORECAST. THE UPPER
FLOW LOOKS TO TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST AS A BROAD UPPER LVL TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL BRING FAIRLY STRONG LEE
SIDE TROUGHING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BRINGING A PERIOD OF
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW THRU TX...ALLOWING FOR SOME DEEPER GULF
MOISTURE RETURN BY FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...UPPER LVL ENERGY LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THRU THE PLAINS SHOULD SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH TX.
WITH BETTER MOISTURE IN PLACE KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACRS THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG THE COLD FRONT EVEN WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT UPPER
LVL FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE AREA. CAVANAUGH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 59 75 58 76 54 / 5 20 30 10 20
WACO, TX 59 76 56 76 53 / 5 40 30 10 10
PARIS, TX 53 74 54 75 53 / 5 20 30 10 20
DENTON, TX 56 74 55 75 52 / 5 20 30 10 20
MCKINNEY, TX 55 74 58 75 53 / 5 20 30 10 20
DALLAS, TX 61 75 58 76 55 / 5 20 30 10 20
TERRELL, TX 56 75 58 76 54 / 5 20 30 10 20
CORSICANA, TX 59 77 57 76 54 / 5 30 30 10 10
TEMPLE, TX 58 76 58 76 53 / 5 40 30 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBRO 080307
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
907 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES INDICATE SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST MEXICO INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. AS A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO MOVES EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ABUNDANT LOW
TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH TX. RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE LOWER TX COAST TONIGHT AND INLAND
TOWARDS MORNING. WILL GO AHEAD AND INCREASE POPS TONIGHT FROM EAST
TO WEST ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. WILL ALSO MAKE
SOME CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE AND SKY GRIDS TO MATCH BETTER WITH
OUR NEIGHBORING CWA TO THE NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT HAS PUSHED INLAND OVER CAMERON
COUNTY THIS EVENING IS BRIEF LOWERING VSBYS AND CEILINGS DOWN INTO
MVFR LEVELS. HOWEVER THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING PRETTY QUICKLY TO THE
WNW ALLOWING THE REDUCTIONS TO BE FAIRLY BRIEF. FURTHER OFFSHORE
KBRO RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING
TOWARDS THE LOWER RGV. SO FAR NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN DETECTED WITH
THIS ACTIVITY AS THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWS A CAPE OF ONLY AROUND
995 J/KG AND A PWAT OF ONLY 1.55 INCHES. WILL UPDATE THE CURRENT TAF
SET TO REFLECT MORE SHOWER COVERAGE EARLIER IN THE TAF FORECAST WITH
PERIODIC REDUCTIONS TO CEILINGS AND VSBYS DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS.
&&
.MARINE...CURRENTLY BUOY020 REPORTS AN EAST WIND FROM 15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH SWELLS AROUND 6 FT. THESE CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY STEADY
STATE UNDER THE CURRENT PGF. THE SWELL ACTIVITY SHOULD START TO
INCREASE TOMORROW AS THE BROAD SURFACE LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
CONTINUES TO MOVE STEADILY NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEX. THIS SHOULD PUSH CONDITIONS INTO SCA LEVELS TOMORROW AND WILL
UPDATE THE NEXT CWF TO ISSUE AN SCA FOR THE LOWER TX GULF WATERS.
THE HAZARDOUS GULF CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS THE STRONG PGF WILL BE CONTINUING AS
IDA MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF INTERACTING WITH THE BROAD SURFACE
HIGH SPRAWLING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SO FAR THE CURRENT OBSERVED
TIDES AT SPI ARE LESS THAN A FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED TIDES. SO WILL
UPDATE THE CURRENT COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE TO MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF
THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. OTHER THAN THE NEW SCA
ISSUANCE THE CURRENT CWF WORDING LOOKS ON TRACK.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 130 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
CLOUD SHIELD SLOWLY MIGRATED NORTH FM ADJ MEX OVR
CAMERON...HIDALGO...BROOKS...KENEDY AND WILLACY COUNTIES ATTM.
KBRO DOPPLER SHOWS SHRAS 75 MILES S OF BRO MVG WEST AT 20
MPH...WITH ISOLATED SHRAS 130 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF POR MVG
NORTH. GULF OF MEXICO WX IS IN FLUX AS TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...ONE FM CAMPECHE AND THE OTHER T.S. IDA...CONVERGE TOWARD
THE NRN GULF. AS OUR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
MVS NW TOWARD THE RGV...SHRAS/TSRAS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE PRE-
DAWN SUNDAY THRU EARLY MONDAY AS BOTH SYSTEMS BLEND INTO A LARGE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL GULF BY MONDAY. AN UPPER TROF
CURRENTLY OVR THE CENTRAL BAJA WILL ARRIVE MONDAY...SHUNTING THESE
SYSTEMS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED MSTR AND DYNAMICS TO LA/MS/FL WITH
COPIOUS RAINFALL XPCTD IN THAT REGION LATE MONDAY THRU TUESDAY.
OUR CONVECTION SHUD BEGIN BY THIS EVENING AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY SUNDAY AS THE INVERTED SFC TROF DRIVES NORTH INTO
THE RGV. RESIDUAL -SHRAS XPCTD EARLY MONDAY THRU MID AFTERNOON AS
THE UPPER TROF DRAGS A WEAK CF THRU THE REGION. BY LATE MONDAY THE
TROF AXIS IS WELL EAST...WITH NW FLOW ALOFT AND SUNNY AND DRY WX
TO FOLLOW FOR THE WEEK. LITTLE CAA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK FRONT
WILL ALLOW TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S DURING THE DAY AND MORNING
LOWS FROM 58 TO 62 DEG F FOR THE WEEK. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM IDA...LOCATED ABOUT
230 MILES SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO. IDA IS FCST TO ENTER THE
GULF OF MEXICO NORTH OF THE TIP OF THE YUCATAN MONDAY AND REMAIN
IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AS IT SLOWLY WEAKENS AND ENTERS
AL/FL PNHNDL EARLY TUESDAY. LONG PERIOD SWELLS OF 10 FEET WILL
ENTER OUR MARINE AREAS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THRU
WEDNESDAY.
MARINE...THE 12 PM OBSERVATION FROM BUOY020 INDICATED WINDS WERE
EAST AROUND 12 KTS GUSTING TO AROUND 16 KTS AND SEAS WERE AROUND 6
FT WITH A PERIOD OF 9 SECONDS. MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOWER TX
COASTAL WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DETERIORATE DURING THE NEXT
24 HRS AS A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LIFTS
NWD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A TIGHTENING LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS TROF AND A SFC RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL ALLOW
EASTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE WITH TIME OVRNGT TNGT THRU SUNDAY. SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BUILD THRU THIS TIME WITH SCA CONDITIONS
PROBABLY FOR BOTH THE NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND
BEYOND. THINK THE SCA CRITERIA SEAS WILL DEVELOP LATER TNGT OR
AROUND MIDNIGHT IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS. WILL BRIEF INCOMING SHIFT ON
SITUATION SO TRENDS CAN BE MONITORED BEFORE A DECISION ON THE SCA IS
MADE. TROPICAL STORM IDA CONTINUES TO SLIDE THRU THE CARRIBEAN SE OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT. IDA IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO PUSH NWD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOCAL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN AGITATED THRU THIS TIME
AS A RESULT OF IDA. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NE BY LATE SUN INTO MON
WILL REMAIN MODERATE TO STRONG ALLOWING FOR SEAS TO REMAIN HIGH. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN RATHER TIGHT THRU WED
ACROSS THE LOWER TX GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. MODERATE TO STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE THRU MIDWEEK WITH ELEVATED SEAS
PREVAILING. THIS SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
SITUATION WITH A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT. AN UPGRADE TO A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL SUNDAY.
AVIATION...THE 3 LOCAL TAF SITES ARE REPORTING VFR CONDITIONS EARLY
THIS AFTN WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. LLVL CU HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TX THIS AFTN UNDERNEATH MID TO HIGHER LVL CLDS STREAMING
IN FROM THE SE OFF THE GULF IN ASSOC WITH A SFC TROF. CLD COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PERIOD AS THE TROF LIFTS NWD INTO
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED TO
INCREASE SUN NEAR COASTAL LOCALES. AT THIS POINT...ADDED VCSH TO THE
BRO AND HRL TAFS BEGINNING SUN MRNG. THE LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY
WIND IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD. ATTM...RETAINED VFR
CONDITIONS THRU SUN MRNG. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE MVFR CIGS IF
SHOWER ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE PREVALENT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 68 80 68 83 / 30 50 20 20
BROWNSVILLE 67 80 67 82 / 30 50 20 20
HARLINGEN 67 82 65 85 / 30 50 20 20
MCALLEN 66 83 66 88 / 20 40 20 20
RIO GRANDE CITY 66 82 63 87 / 20 30 20 20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 69 80 66 84 / 30 50 30 20
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
GMZ150-155-170-175.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE
61/60
000
FXUS64 KCRP 080303
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
903 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE AREA WHICH IS
EVIDENT IN THE 00Z CRP SOUNDING. AM NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
FOG DVLPMNT TONIGHT DUE TO A BKN CLOUD DECK OVHD...ALTHOUGH WHERE
THERE ARE BREAKS...BRIEF FOG DVLPMNT IS POSSIBLE WITH VSBY`S
LOWERING AT TIMES TO AROUND 1-3SM. MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THEN RAIN
CHANCES SHIFT INLAND AND INCREASE TO LIKELY ON SUNDAY DUE TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER LOW. THE OTHER MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE LOW IN THE
GULF MOVG N TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND INCREASING NE WINDS ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS WHICH IN TURN WILL LEAD TO MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW
ALONG THE BEACHES BY SUNDAY. CURRENT FCST IS ON TRACK WITH THESE
FEATURES...THEREFORE WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...A RATHER COMPLEX AVIATION WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING
UP OVER SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THE MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK CURRENTLY ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN LIFTING
NORTHEAST BY 12Z SUN. THIS SHOULD SLOW THE DEVELOPMENT/DECREASE
THE INTENSITY OF RADIATIONAL FOG ACROSS THE INLAND SECTIONS
TONIGHT. MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A KALI-
KBEA-KVCT LINE BETWEEN 10Z-14Z AS A RESULT...THEN SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR BETWEEN 14Z-15Z. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO TONIGHT SHOULD ENTER THE WESTERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY
SUNDAY MORNING...THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN
GULF SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE SHOULD GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
12Z-18Z SUN...THEN INCREASING AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOULD AID IN
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT GENERALLY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 16 18Z-24Z SUN. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY...WITH TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEAR CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...VIGOROUS DETACHED
S/WV TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST FROM BAJA TO NRN MEXICO THIS AFTN. THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS S/CEN TEXAS SUN AND SUN EVENING PROVIDING
LARGE SCALE LIFT AND SOME MODEST MID LEVEL COOLING TO THE REGION.
THE BEST LIFT WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 18Z AND 24Z SUN...TAPERING OFF IN
THE EVENING. THE GULF LOW ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL SLOWLY
MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD AND IS ACTUALLY SOMEWHAT UNFORTUNATE
AS IS WILL ACTUALLY LIMIT RETURN FLOW...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ACROSS S TX. HOWEVER...THE LOW MAY REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SE THAT
SIGNIFICANT SUBSIDENCE ON THE WRN SIDE DOES NOT REACH THE AREA
UNTIL SUN NIGHT. ALSO...IT STILL APPEARS ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
PRESENT TO PROVIDE SCT TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSTMS ON SUN GIVEN
STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOC W/ THE UPR SYSTEM TO THE WEST. OVERALL
INSTABILITY IS NOT GREAT WITH CAPES GENERALLY BELOW 1000 J/KG AND
SHEAR IS NOT STRONG SO UNLESS THINGS HEAT UP MUCH MORE THAN
ANTICIPATED...APPEARS SVR TSTMS SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE. ECMWF IS
MOST AGGRESSIVE W/ QPF SHOWING 1/2-1 INCH TOTAL RAINFALL ACROSS
CEN ZONES...WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE. THE ECM IS
PROBABLY A BIT AGGRESSIVE...BUT ISOLD AMOUNTS AROUND 1 INCH OR
LITTLE HIGH MAY BE POSSIBLE. BEST POPS IN LIKELY RANGE WILL OCCUR
ACROSS CEN/ERN ZONES ON SUN BUT WILL KEEP LINGERING SLT CHC-CHC
POPS SUN NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS IN WRN ZONES AT 00Z.
GIVEN INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...THINK FOG SHOULD NOT BE
AN ISSUE NEXT FEW NIGHTS.
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...A POTENT SRN STREAM S/WV WL
MOVE QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF THE CWA ON MONDAY
MORNING. THE S/WV WL TAKE THE SFC LOW ORIGINATING FROM THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE EWD TWDS IDA. HOWEVER...THE MAIN EFFECT WL BE INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MON AS RIDGING AT ALL LVLS BUILDS
INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTHWEST. A STRONG RDG AXIS ALOFT WITH THEN
BUILD INTO THE CWA THROUGH THURSDAY. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER
AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT/WED BEHIND A WK COLD FNT. THIS
FNT WL BE DRAWN THROUGH THE CWA AS DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LOW MERGES WITH IDA ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF. MOISTURE WL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY FRI AS THE SFC RDG AXIS
FINALLY WEAKENS AND ALLOWS ONSHORE FLOW TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP.
CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION ON SAT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SRN STREAM
S/WV WL ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED PCPN. GENERALLY WENT
WITH A BLEND OF GFS AND ENSEMBLE MOS TEMPS THROUGH THE PD. TIDAL
LVLS WL LKLY REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MIDWEEK...ESPECIALLY ON MON DUE
TO ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDES AND LARGE SWELLS FROM BOTH THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND IDA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 67 79 64 80 60 / 20 70 30 10 0
VICTORIA 62 77 60 77 57 / 10 70 40 10 0
LAREDO 66 86 64 83 60 / 10 40 10 10 0
ALICE 64 81 63 82 58 / 10 70 30 10 0
ROCKPORT 68 79 65 79 62 / 20 70 40 10 0
COTULLA 62 77 61 83 56 / 10 40 10 10 0
KINGSVILLE 65 80 64 81 59 / 20 70 30 10 0
NAVY CORPUS 70 79 67 79 64 / 20 70 30 10 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TE/81...DISCUSSION
TM/95...AVIATION
000
FXUS64 KEWX 080156
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
756 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.UPDATE...
WILL ISSUE AN NPW FOR DENSE FOG AT 8 PM...VALID FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM
SUNDAY. DECIDED THAT EVEN THOUGH MID-LEVEL CLOUDCOVER AND WARMER
GROUND/BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DELAY AND/OR LIMIT FOG FORMATION...
THERE STILL SHOULD BE ENOUGH FAVORABLE FACTORS FOR DENSE FOG ALONG
THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT...LOW LYING AREAS OF ATASCOSA COUNTY...AND
IN THE TREES OF BASTROP COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT PATCHY FOG WITH
WIDELY VARYING VISIBILITY FROM 1/2 TO 3 MILES. OTHERWISE...THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...
INITIAL PATTERN IS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST BACK ACROSS NORTHERN TX INTO NM WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
BAJA PENINSULA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND STRETCHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST TO CENTRAL TX. THIS SET UP
WILL LEAD TO A CLOUDLESS EVENING AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
EXPECT THIS TO BRING A REPEAT OF MORNING FOG..THE WORST OF WHICH
WILL BE ALONG THE ESCARPMENT AND DOWN I37. WE MAY NEED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY...BUT WILL LET LATER SHIFTS SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP.
LATER ON SUN THE TROUGH IN THE WEST WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO INTO TX. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS. DEEP
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AND BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST.
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
STARTING MON...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ABOVE OUR
AREA RETURNING DRY AND WARM WEATHER.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 61 74 61 77 60 / - 30 20 - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 56 74 58 77 56 / - 30 20 - 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 55 74 59 77 56 / - 30 20 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 56 70 58 73 56 / - 20 20 0 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 61 75 60 77 56 / - 10 - 0 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 58 73 59 75 57 / - 20 20 - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 55 75 60 77 58 / - 30 20 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 56 74 59 76 58 / - 30 20 - 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 57 75 61 77 58 / - 40 20 - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 57 74 60 77 59 / - 30 20 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 58 75 60 76 58 / - 30 20 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BASTROP...BEXAR...COMAL...GUADALUPE...HAYS...
MEDINA...TRAVIS...UVALDE...WILLIAMSON.
&&
$$
26/07
000
FXUS64 KFWD 080033 AAA
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
633 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.AVIATION...
EXPECT ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT. HAVE FORECASTED IFR CEILINGS INTO WACO BY 08Z...AND
INTO THE METROPLEX BY 10Z. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR
15-17Z....AND TO VFR AFTER 18Z IN THE METROPLEX...AND 21Z AT
WACO. RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ARE TOO LOW TO
MENTION AT THIS TIME. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 8 TO 12 KNOTS
WILL PREVAIL.
58
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST SOUTH OF NM AND AZ AT FORECAST
TIME. 12Z MODELS ALL KICK THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OUT NORTHEAST OVER
THE NEXT 24 HRS SPREADING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER
NORTH TX BEGINNING LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND EXTENDING THROUGH
ABOUT MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. 20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER LVL
PV ANALYSIS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
BAJA PENINSULA AND INTO MEXICO. MODELS SEEM TO POINT TO THIS
FEATURE AS BEING AT LEAST PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR DEVELOPING A
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER THE GOMEX DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. THIS
AREA OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE A SFC
LOW/INVERTED TROUGH TO DEEPEN NEAR THE TX/LA COAST BACKING THE LOW
LVL WINDS ALONG THE GULF COAST...EFFECTIVELY LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OF DEEPER GULF MOISTURE INTO NORTH TX
FOR SUNDAY. 12Z MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN SHEARING OUT THE UPPER LVL
PV ANOMALY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE CWA HERE STARTING 12Z
SUNDAY. DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAKER UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG OVER NORTH
TX AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...SO HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. THE AREAS EXPECTED TO SEE THE DEEPEST GULF
MOISTURE RETURN IN THE CWA ARE THOSE AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE
WACO AREA. AREAS IN NORTH TX THAT RECEIVE THE BEST GULF MOISTURE
ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE
GENERAL SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
IN THE BROAD FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. AS THE TROUGH DEPARTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER SUNRISE
ON MONDAY...ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH AS
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE SPREADS OVER THE REGION.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE COLD/PACIFIC FRONT STILL LOOKS ON
TRACK TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTH TX MONDAY NIGHT. 12Z MODEL
RUNS ARE NOW BRINGING SOME UPPER LVL SUPPORT ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE FORM OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH OK AND THE RED RIVER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
BECAUSE OF THE UPPER LVL SUPPORT...INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAIN SHOWERS FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LOOKING TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. DID NOT SPREAD POPS FURTHER SOUTH AS FORCING
ALONG THE FRONT BY ITSELF DOES NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. BEHIND THE FRONT...SKIES SHOULD BEGIN
TO CLEAR OUT FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LVL RIDGING BUILDS
BACK OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...IN GENERAL UPPER LVL RIDGING LOOKS TO
HOLD OVER THE FORECAST AREA ALLOWING FOR A DRY FORECAST. THE UPPER
FLOW LOOKS TO TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST AS A BROAD UPPER LVL TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL BRING FAIRLY STRONG LEE
SIDE TROUGHING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BRINGING A PERIOD OF
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW THRU TX...ALLOWING FOR SOME DEEPER GULF
MOISTURE RETURN BY FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...UPPER LVL ENERGY LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THRU THE PLAINS SHOULD SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH TX.
WITH BETTER MOISTURE IN PLACE KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACRS THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG THE COLD FRONT EVEN WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT UPPER
LVL FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE AREA.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 59 75 58 76 54 / 5 20 30 10 20
WACO, TX 59 76 56 76 53 / 5 40 30 10 10
PARIS, TX 53 74 54 75 53 / 5 20 30 10 20
DENTON, TX 56 74 55 75 52 / 5 20 30 10 20
MCKINNEY, TX 55 74 58 75 53 / 5 20 30 10 20
DALLAS, TX 61 75 58 76 55 / 5 20 30 10 20
TERRELL, TX 56 75 58 76 54 / 5 20 30 10 20
CORSICANA, TX 59 77 57 76 54 / 5 30 30 10 10
TEMPLE, TX 58 76 58 76 53 / 5 40 30 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
58/84
000
FXUS64 KLUB 072353
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
553 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE RETURNING ON S-SE WINDS MAY LEAD TO
SOME LIGHT FOG/LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
SOME POSSIBILITY THAT VSBY AND/OR CEILING MAY DROP TO MVFR CAT
FROM ABOUT KLBB SOUTHWARD BUT TOO UNCERTAIN TO ADD TO TAF AT THIS
TIME. THIS THREAT SHOULD END BY ABOUT 15Z SUN. WIND SPEEDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT DUE TO A STRONG NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL
JET...THE HIGHER SFC SPEEDS SHOULD REDUCE WIND SHEAR BUT THERE
COULD STILL BE CONSIDERABLE CHOP FROM THE SFC TO 2K FT OR SO.
SCT CUMULUS FIELD MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN SPLNS/ROLLING
PLAINS SUNDAY AFTN AS MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
SHORT TERM...
ONLY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS DEGREE OF
MOISTURE ADVECTION OVERNIGHT AS A NOCTURNAL SOUTHERLY LLJ RAMPS UP
ONCE AGAIN. RECENT REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS REVEAL THE LEADING EDGE OF
50+F DEWPOINTS HAS ALREADY NUDGED INTO THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS WITHIN
A BACKING LL FLOW. WEAK PRESSURE FALLS MEANWHILE AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LOW WEST OF THE BIG BEND SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MOISTURE
ADVECTION AREA WIDE THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE DRIEST AIR
PERSISTING ACROSS OUR WRN ZONES. SLOW REMOVAL OF THIS DRY AIR
ON THE CAPROCK SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT RAPID COOLING LATE TONIGHT
WHICH WILL FURTHER ASSIST IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS PATCHY LIGHT FOG BY SUN MORNING...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS
OBSERVED THIS MORNING FROM ABI SOUTHWEST TO SJT. OTHERWISE THE ONLY
OTHER EFFECT FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
CIRRIFORM CLOUDS AS THIS FEATURE TRANSITIONS INTO AN OPEN WAVE ON
SUNDAY AND TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA. IMPROVED LL MOISTURE ON
SUNDAY AND REDUCED THIKNESSES SHOULD HINDER THE DEEP MIXING
OBSERVED TODAY AND THIS WILL SUPPORT A ROUND OF SLIGHTLY COOLER
MAX TEMPS.
LONG TERM...
FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS CENTERED ON THE IMPACTS OF AN
EARLY WEEK FROPA.
NEAR ZONAL FLOW IS PROGGED TO BUCKLE/AMPLIFY MONDAY TOWARD A
DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST PATTERN. THIS WILL AID
THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF A 1030MB SURFACE HIGH FROM THE GREAT BASIN
OVER THE DIVIDE AND THROUGH THE PLAINS. FROPA IS EXPECTED LOCALLY
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY...AND MODEL SIGNALS FOR STRATUS
REMAIN IN BOTH THE PRE AND POST FRONTAL AIRMASSES. SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO DPICT LIGHT QPF ALONG AND IN WAKE OF THE FRONT.
HOWEVER SIGNALS FOR NOTABLE FORCING/ASCENT ARE LACKING UNDER
BUILDING HEIGHTS AS THE MENTIONED UA RIDGE AXIS TRANSLATES
EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY EARLY TUESDAY. THUS REMAIN
RELUCTANT TO INCREASE POPS ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCE /20 PERCENT/...BUT
WILL INTRODUCE A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH FROPA AS WEAK INSTABILITY
IS PROGGED...AND WILL WEIGHT WEATHER GRIDS TOWARD FOG/DRIZZLE GIVEN
SATURATED LOW LEVEL PROFILES AND WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TOWARD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF AN EVOLVING BROAD WESTERN U.S. TROUGH MID/LATE
WEEK. THIS WILL PROMOTE LEE TROUGHING/MODERATION. SOLUTIONS CONTINUE
TO DIFFER IN HANDLING THE EVENTUAL EJECTION OF THIS TROUGH OVER
THE ROCKIES/PLAINS LATE WEEK...BUT HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A NORTHERN
TRACK. THUS HAVE DELAYED THE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF RAIN/COOL TEMPS
UNTIL THE ASSOCIATED FROPA SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...
AN ATTEMPTED AG BURN IN NORTHERN BAILEY COUNTY ESCAPED THIS
ATERNOON AND GREW INTO A LARGE GRASS FIRE. ALTHOUGH LOCAL RFW
CRITERIA ARE NOT THREATENED...WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ACTUALLY
MODERATELY SUPPORTIVE OF WILDFIRE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHWEST
ZONES PER A LOCAL STUDY...MAINLY DUE TO ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPS...
VERY DRY AIR /RH NR 10 PERCENT/...AND MODEST BREEZES. THUS HAVE
ADDRESSED THIS WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND HAZARD PRODUCT
GIVEN POSSIBILITY FOR ADDITIONAL ATTEMPTS OF SEASONAL AG BURNS IN
THAT AREA. TEMPS/RH WILL IMPROVE NOTABLY BY SUNSET...BUT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
33
000
FXUS64 KEWX 072349
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
549 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...
ANOTHER DENSE FOG EVENT EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY SUN MORNING
WITH IFR CIGS AND VSBYS DEVELOPING AROUND 08Z AND LOWERING TO LIFR
CONDITIONS BETWEEN 09Z-10Z PRIMARILY I-35 TERMINALS AND EASTWARD.
CONDS IMPROVING BACK TO IFR BY 14Z-15Z AND VFR AFT 17Z-18Z. UPPER
TROF SWINGING ACROSS AREA ON SUN TO BRING CHC OF TSRA PRIMARILY
FROM I-35 CORRIDOR EASTWARD. VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL AFT 00Z MON FOR
THE 30 HR TAFS AT KAUS AND KSAT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...
INITIAL PATTERN IS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST BACK ACROSS NORTHERN TX INTO NM WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
BAJA PENINSULA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND STRETCHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST TO CENTRAL TX. THIS SET UP
WILL LEAD TO A CLOUDLESS EVENING AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
EXPECT THIS TO BRING A REPEAT OF MORNING FOG..THE WORST OF WHICH
WILL BE ALONG THE ESCARPMENT AND DOWN I37. WE MAY NEED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY...BUT WILL LET LATER SHIFTS SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP.
LATER ON SUN THE TROUGH IN THE WEST WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO INTO TX. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS. DEEP
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AND BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST.
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
STARTING MON...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ABOVE OUR
AREA RETURNING DRY AND WARM WEATHER.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 61 74 61 77 60 / - 30 20 - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 56 74 58 77 56 / - 30 20 - 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 55 74 59 77 56 / - 30 20 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 56 70 58 73 56 / - 20 20 0 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 61 75 60 77 56 / - 10 - 0 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 58 73 59 75 57 / - 20 20 - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 55 75 60 77 58 / - 30 20 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 56 74 59 76 58 / - 30 20 - 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 57 75 61 77 58 / - 40 20 - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 57 74 60 77 59 / - 30 20 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 58 75 60 76 58 / - 30 20 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
26/07
000
FXUS64 KCRP 072349 AAA
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
549 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...A RATHER COMPLEX AVIATION WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING
UP OVER SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THE MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK CURRENTLY ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN LIFTING
NORTHEAST BY 12Z SUN. THIS SHOULD SLOW THE DEVELOPMENT/DECREASE
THE INTENSITY OF RADIATIONAL FOG ACROSS THE INLAND SECTIONS
TONIGHT. MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A KALI-
KBEA-KVCT LINE BETWEEN 10Z-14Z AS A RESULT...THEN SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR BETWEEN 14Z-15Z. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO TONIGHT SHOULD ENTER THE WESTERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY
SUNDAY MORNING...THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN
GULF SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE SHOULD GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
12Z-18Z SUN...THEN INCREASING AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOULD AID IN
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT GENERALLY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 16 18Z-24Z SUN. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY...WITH TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEAR CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...VIGOROUS DETACHED
S/WV TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST FROM BAJA TO NRN MEXICO THIS AFTN. THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS S/CEN TEXAS SUN AND SUN EVENING PROVIDING
LARGE SCALE LIFT AND SOME MODEST MID LEVEL COOLING TO THE REGION.
THE BEST LIFT WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 18Z AND 24Z SUN...TAPERING OFF IN
THE EVENING. THE GULF LOW ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL SLOWLY
MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD AND IS ACTUALLY SOMEWHAT UNFORTUNATE
AS IS WILL ACTUALLY LIMIT RETURN FLOW...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ACROSS S TX. HOWEVER...THE LOW MAY REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SE THAT
SIGNIFICANT SUBSIDENCE ON THE WRN SIDE DOES NOT REACH THE AREA
UNTIL SUN NIGHT. ALSO...IT STILL APPEARS ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
PRESENT TO PROVIDE SCT TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSTMS ON SUN GIVEN
STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOC W/ THE UPR SYSTEM TO THE WEST. OVERALL
INSTABILITY IS NOT GREAT WITH CAPES GENERALLY BELOW 1000 J/KG AND
SHEAR IS NOT STRONG SO UNLESS THINGS HEAT UP MUCH MORE THAN
ANTICIPATED...APPEARS SVR TSTMS SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE. ECMWF IS
MOST AGGRESSIVE W/ QPF SHOWING 1/2-1 INCH TOTAL RAINFALL ACROSS
CEN ZONES...WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE. THE ECM IS
PROBABLY A BIT AGGRESSIVE...BUT ISOLD AMOUNTS AROUND 1 INCH OR
LITTLE HIGH MAY BE POSSIBLE. BEST POPS IN LIKELY RANGE WILL OCCUR
ACROSS CEN/ERN ZONES ON SUN BUT WILL KEEP LINGERING SLT CHC-CHC
POPS SUN NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS IN WRN ZONES AT 00Z.
GIVEN INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...THINK FOG SHOULD NOT BE
AN ISSUE NEXT FEW NIGHTS.
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...A POTENT SRN STREAM S/WV WL
MOVE QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF THE CWA ON MONDAY
MORNING. THE S/WV WL TAKE THE SFC LOW ORIGINATING FROM THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE EWD TWDS IDA. HOWEVER...THE MAIN EFFECT WL BE INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MON AS RIDGING AT ALL LVLS BUILDS
INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTHWEST. A STRONG RDG AXIS ALOFT WITH THEN
BUILD INTO THE CWA THROUGH THURSDAY. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER
AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT/WED BEHIND A WK COLD FNT. THIS
FNT WL BE DRAWN THROUGH THE CWA AS DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LOW MERGES WITH IDA ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF. MOISTURE WL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY FRI AS THE SFC RDG AXIS
FINALLY WEAKENS AND ALLOWS ONSHORE FLOW TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP.
CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION ON SAT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SRN STREAM
S/WV WL ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED PCPN. GENERALLY WENT
WITH A BLEND OF GFS AND ENSEMBLE MOS TEMPS THROUGH THE PD. TIDAL
LVLS WL LKLY REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MIDWEEK...ESPECIALLY ON MON DUE
TO ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDES AND LARGE SWELLS FROM BOTH THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND IDA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 67 79 64 80 60 / 20 70 30 10 0
VICTORIA 62 77 60 77 57 / 10 70 40 10 0
LAREDO 66 86 64 83 60 / 10 40 10 10 0
ALICE 64 81 63 82 58 / 10 70 30 10 0
ROCKPORT 68 79 65 79 62 / 20 70 40 10 0
COTULLA 62 77 61 83 56 / 10 40 10 10 0
KINGSVILLE 65 80 64 81 59 / 20 70 30 10 0
NAVY CORPUS 70 79 67 79 64 / 20 70 30 10 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TM/95...AVIATION
000
FXUS64 KSJT 072346 AAA
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
546 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS IN THE 1000-1500 FT RANGE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP/ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TONIGHT...
AIDED BY DEVELOPMENT OF LOW-LEVEL JET. CLOUD CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING...BUT STILL EXPECT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY...MAINLY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND INTO
TEXAS. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
SHORT TERM...
CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL OPEN AND MOVE
EAST ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
INITIALLY THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER
STRATUS DECK EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A DEVELOPING 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH MIXING TO LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BUT COULD
SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING
CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S. LOW CLOUDS MAY BE SLOW TO SCATTER OUT TOMORROW MORNING
AS MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH LIMIT
MIXING POTENTIAL INITIALLY. CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN A BIT COOLER
TEMPS SUNDAY BUT STILL NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES WITH
HIGHS MAINLY LOWER 70S. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NW HILL COUNTRY AND HEARTLAND SUN AFTERNOON
WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE WILL EXIST BUT ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED
TO BE VERY LIGHT.
LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE LOCATED EAST
OF THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST OVER PRIMARILY
THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY AND EASTERN HEARTLAND SUNDAY EVENING.
DRY FORECAST IS ON TAP MONDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EAST OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT OVER PRIMARILY
THE NORTHERN CWA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN
CHANCES END AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LOW. NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN STATES THE FIRST OF THE WEEK AND THEN
THROUGH THE UPPER PLAINS BY LATE IN THE WEEK. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS THE BEST DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
POST FRONTAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S
TUESDAY... WARMING INTO THE 70S OVER ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BY
THURSDAY. NEXT UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE IS FORECASTED THROUGH THE AREA
OVER THE COMING WEEKEND...WITH NO ASSOCIATED RAINFALL EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 55 73 52 74 47 / 10 10 10 10 20
SAN ANGELO 55 73 52 76 47 / 10 10 10 10 10
JUNCTION 55 73 54 77 48 / 10 20 20 10 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHGX 072344
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
544 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.AVIATION...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWING LIGHTER WINDS INLAND
TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOWING CIGS/VIS OVERNIGHT...ESP IAH
NWD WHERE IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT OR BEFORE SUNRISE.
SLIGHTLY BETTER CONDITIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE WINDS WILL BE
HIGHER BUT STILL ANTICIPATE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS. ONLY SLOW
IMPROVEMENT SUN MORNING TO VFR CATEGORY INLAND DURING LATE MORNING
OR ERLY AFTN. INCREASING MOISTURE AND POSSIBLY SOME -RA/SHRA
CLOSER TO THE COAST IN THE AFTN. 47
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SUNDAY ACROSS COASTAL WATERS AS
SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPEN OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF.
THIS WILL BE MORE EVIDENT SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH FLOW BECOMING
NORTHEAST AND STRENGTHENING MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS AND GALVESTON COUNTIES. AS MENTIONED IN CWFHGX
HIGHEST TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY
NIGHT. TIDE LEVELS BETWEEN 3.8 AND 4.6 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
MAIN IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA AND
THE WEST END OF GALVESTON ISLAND. POPS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY
OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUR
FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES WILL HAVE HIGHER CHANCES WITH CHANCES LOWERING
NORTHWESTWARD. SURFACE TROUGH/LOW WILL MOVE TOWARDS
LOUISIANA/ALABAMA MONDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES RAPIDLY DIMINISHING
OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES. ASIDE FROM THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING
OUR REGION SUNDAY THE NORTHWEST ZONES WILL HAVE LOWER RAIN CHANCES
AS HIGHEST PWATS WILL BE MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF CWFA.
IT WILL BE DRY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILING. WE DID NOT CHANGE THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THIS
PACKAGE WHICH INCLUDES NEXT WEEKEND DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES THUS
LEAVING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. 37
MARINE...
WINDS ON THE INCREASE AND WITH CURRENT SET OF MODELS AND FORECAST
WINDS HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS FROM BRAZORIA TO
GALVESTON TO CHAMBERS COUNTY. TIDES RUNNING 0.7-1.3 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL ALREADY AND WILL PEAK SUNDAY NIGHT WITH STRONGER ENE WINDS
OVER THE COAST. BOLIVAR THE MOST IMPACTED...ELSEWHERE PLENTY OF
BEACH FLOODING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 60 79 60 78 58 / 10 30 20 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 61 77 62 77 59 / 10 40 40 20 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 67 76 65 75 63 / 10 50 50 30 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM 3 AM CST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMAF 072329
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
529 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
WILL PUT IN A LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR GROUP AT KMAF FROM 06Z TO
10Z AS THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS SEVERAL OF
THE TERMINALS IN CEILINGS AND OR FOG. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AGAIN FROM MID SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT
THE TERMINALS.
12
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN SONORA MX AND
SOUTHERN AZ. THIS FEATURE WILL OPEN INTO A WAVE AND MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...AND WILL EXIT TO
THE EAST OF OUR CWFA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. ENOUGH MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE PECOS RIVER. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG STILL LOOK
FEASIBLE ACROSS LOCATIONS EAST OF THE PECOS RIVER THROUGH MID SUNDAY
MORNING. SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE
ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...SENDING THE NEXT COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BASIN AND THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT UPGLIDE ABOVE THE BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF
FOG AND DRIZZLE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO BE MUCH COOLER TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND ALSO WITH
THE CLOUD COVER STAYING IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH FLOW
ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS A BROAD TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THE
DEPTH OF THIS TROUGH WILL STILL BE IN QUESTION. CURRENT TRENDS
SUGGEST THAT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE WARM...AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE BOTH DAYS...THEN FRONTAL PASSAGE POSSIBLE BY
SATURDAY. TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY
THE TROUGH WILL SWING EASTWARD. HAVE TRENDED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WARM FOR NOW...AND LEFT A COOL FORECAST IN PLACE SATURDAY.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
67/21
000
FXUS64 KAMA 072252 AAA
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
452 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.AVIATION...
A SUBTLE CHANGE TO THE NORM IS EXPECTED SUNDAY EVENING AS AN UPPER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MEXICO EJECTS INTO SOUTH TEXAS.
SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO STREAM NORTHWARD ON
SUNDAY...HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
THE UPCOMING 09/00Z FORECAST.
ALSO...A COLD FRONT COULD EDGE INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT. ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
MAY BE DELAYED INTO THE EVENING HOURS WHEN THE LOWER LEVELS FINALLY
SATURATE.
NUNEZ
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...
ONE MORE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY DAY SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE PANHANDLES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY BY 21Z SUNDAY FROM NORTHEAST
NM INTO CENTRAL KS. THE FRONT WILL THEN BEGIN MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
AGAIN ACROSS THE PANHANDLES SUNDAY EVENING...PUSHING ACROSS ALL OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE EAST OUT OF
EASTERN CO AND EASTERN NM BY LATE SUNDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS
GRIDS AND FORECAST IS TO INTRODUCE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SUNDAY
NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE PANHANDLES WITH BOTH THE COLD FRONT AND
UPPER TROUGH PROVIDING LIFT...AND WINDS BACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION.
ALSO...CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS MOS INDICATING VISIBILITIES OF NEAR ONE MILE
OR LESS IN FOG FOR KAMA BY 12Z MONDAY. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
WATCH CLOSELY IN THE EVENT THAT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY BECOMES
NECESSARY. MUCH COOLER WITH CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS MONDAY...NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT DRY. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN
OVER THE PANHANDLES BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH
TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NM AND EASTERN CO BY WEDNESDAY. UNSEASONABLY
WARM AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ALSO...AS LEE
SIDE TROUGH DEEPENS...PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN UP AND ALLOW FOR
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BY LATE NEXT WEEK. NEXT COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING MUCH
COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND. LEFT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ALONE FOR NOW ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE LOW THIS FAR OUT IN THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF AND GFS SEEM TO
BE BACKING OFF FROM ANY PRECIP WITH THE 12Z RUN AND SLOWING DOWN THE
TIMING OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN REGION
LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE ALSO LOW IN THE MODELS IN HANDLING THIS
NEXT SYSTEM. WILL JUST LEAVE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ALONE FOR NOW.
SCHNEIDER
FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL LESSEN SUNDAY INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS
MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
EARLY IN THE WEEK. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS AROUND THE MIDDLE TO
END OF NEXT WEEK...WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...ALONG WITH BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS MAY INCREASE THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THAT TIME.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
08/24
000
FXUS64 KHGX 072210
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
405 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SUNDAY ACROSS COASTAL WATERS AS
SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPEN OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF.
THIS WILL BE MORE EVIDENT SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH FLOW BECOMING
NORTHEAST AND STRENGTHENING MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS AND
GALVESTON COUNTIES. AS MENTIONED IN CWFHGX HIGHEST TIDE LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY NIGHT. TIDE LEVELS
BETWEEN 3.8 AND 4.6 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA AND THE WEST END OF
GALVESTON ISLAND. POPS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUR FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES WILL HAVE HIGHER CHANCES WITH CHANCES LOWERING
NORTHWESTWARD. SURFACE TROUGH/LOW WILL MOVE TOWARDS LOUISIANA/ALABAMA
MONDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES RAPIDLY DIMINISHING OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES.
ASIDE FROM THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING OUR REGION SUNDAY THE NORTHWEST
ZONES WILL HAVE LOWER RAIN CHANCES AS HIGHEST PWATS WILL BE MAINLY
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF CWFA. IT WILL BE DRY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING. WE DID NOT CHANGE
THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THIS PACKAGE WHICH INCLUDES NEXT WEEKEND DUE
TO MODEL DIFFERENCES THUS LEAVING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. 37
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS ON THE INCREASE AND WITH CURRENT SET OF MODELS AND FORECAST
WINDS HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS FROM BRAZORIA TO
GALVESTON TO CHAMBERS COUNTY. TIDES RUNNING 0.7-1.3 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL ALREADY AND WILL PEAK SUNDAY NIGHT WITH STRONGER ENE WINDS
OVER THE COAST. BOLIVAR THE MOST IMPACTED...ELSEWHERE PLENTY OF
BEACH FLOODING.
45
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED/BROKEN DECK 2800-3500FT BREAKING UP WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...DECK OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS HAS DISSIPATED AND GLS
WEBCAMS SHOWING THIS TREND CLEARLY. CI ALSO STARTING TO SPREAD NORTH
INTO THE COASTAL AREAS.
BIG DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN NAM AND GFS GUIDANCE ON CIG/VISBY TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. 12Z NAM ONLY SHOWING A BRIEF PERIOD FROM 12ZISH-18Z OF
MVFR CIGS...WHEREAS THE GFS GUIDANCE IS MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC...BY
09Z MOST SITES ARE IFR AND CONTINUING THROUGH 18Z.
MUCH DEPENDS ON THE TRACK OF THE SW GULF LOW SUNDAY MORNING...
OVERALL THE FORECAST WILL BE DETERIORATING AS THE EASTERLY GRADIENT
BEGINS TO INCREASE AND LAYER RH INCREASES TONIGHT. WILL INSTIGATE
MVFR CONDITIONS BY 09Z AREAWIDE WITH CIGS OF AROUND 1200-1700FT.
AREAS TO THE NORTH OF IAH MAY HAVE SOME LIGHT FOG BUT WINDS MAY
EASILY PRECLUDE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS OVER
CLL/UTS/CXO SHOULD LEAD TO IFR OR NEAR IFR BY 12Z LOWERING DURING
THE 12-16Z TIMEFRAME. AT IAH SOUTHWARD STRONGER WINDS WILL BE ON
TAP BUT WITH MORE MOISTURE SO HAVE FAVORED A MORE WIDESPREAD
900-1200FT CIG SCENARIO FROM 11Z ON. LOOKING BACK AT THE CLIMO HAS
RAISED CONFIDENCE ON THE CIGS FORECAST WITH EAST WINDS IN NOVEMBER
FROM 10-18Z. ANOTHER CONCERN MAY BE EAST WINDS 35-40KTS AT
2000-4000FT AFTER 18Z FOR IAH/HOU.
45
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 60 79 60 78 58 / 10 30 20 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 61 77 62 77 59 / 10 40 40 20 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 67 76 65 75 63 / 10 50 50 30 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM 3 AM CST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KFWD 072153
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
353 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST SOUTH OF NM AND AZ AT FORECAST
TIME. 12Z MODELS ALL KICK THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OUT NORTHEAST OVER
THE NEXT 24 HRS SPREADING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER
NORTH TX BEGINNING LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND EXTENDING THROUGH
ABOUT MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. 20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER LVL
PV ANALYSIS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
BAJA PENINSULA AND INTO MEXICO. MODELS SEEM TO POINT TO THIS
FEATURE AS BEING AT LEAST PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR DEVELOPING A
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER THE GOMEX DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. THIS
AREA OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE A SFC
LOW/INVERTED TROUGH TO DEEPEN NEAR THE TX/LA COAST BACKING THE LOW
LVL WINDS ALONG THE GULF COAST...EFFECTIVELY LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OF DEEPER GULF MOISTURE INTO NORTH TX
FOR SUNDAY. 12Z MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN SHEARING OUT THE UPPER LVL
PV ANOMALY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE CWA HERE STARTING 12Z
SUNDAY. DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAKER UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG OVER NORTH
TX AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...SO HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. THE AREAS EXPECTED TO SEE THE DEEPEST GULF
MOISTURE RETURN IN THE CWA ARE THOSE AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE
WACO AREA. AREAS IN NORTH TX THAT RECEIVE THE BEST GULF MOISTURE
ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE
GENERAL SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
IN THE BROAD FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. AS THE TROUGH DEPARTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER SUNRISE
ON MONDAY...ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH AS
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE SPREADS OVER THE REGION.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE COLD/PACIFIC FRONT STILL LOOKS ON
TRACK TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTH TX MONDAY NIGHT. 12Z MODEL
RUNS ARE NOW BRINGING SOME UPPER LVL SUPPORT ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE FORM OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH OK AND THE RED RIVER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
BECAUSE OF THE UPPER LVL SUPPORT...INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAIN SHOWERS FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LOOKING TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. DID NOT SPREAD POPS FURTHER SOUTH AS FORCING
ALONG THE FRONT BY ITSELF DOES NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. BEHIND THE FRONT...SKIES SHOULD BEGIN
TO CLEAR OUT FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LVL RIDGING BUILDS
BACK OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...IN GENERAL UPPER LVL RIDGING LOOKS TO
HOLD OVER THE FORECAST AREA ALLOWING FOR A DRY FORECAST. THE UPPER
FLOW LOOKS TO TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST AS A BROAD UPPER LVL TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL BRING FAIRLY STRONG LEE
SIDE TROUGHING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BRINGING A PERIOD OF
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW THRU TX...ALLOWING FOR SOME DEEPER GULF
MOISTURE RETURN BY FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...UPPER LVL ENERGY LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THRU THE PLAINS SHOULD SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH TX.
WITH BETTER MOISTURE IN PLACE KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACRS THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG THE COLD FRONT EVEN WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT UPPER
LVL FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE AREA.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 59 75 58 76 54 / 5 20 30 10 20
WACO, TX 59 76 56 76 53 / 5 40 30 10 10
PARIS, TX 53 74 54 75 53 / 5 20 30 10 20
DENTON, TX 56 74 55 75 52 / 5 20 30 10 20
MCKINNEY, TX 55 74 58 75 53 / 5 20 30 10 20
DALLAS, TX 61 75 58 76 55 / 5 20 30 10 20
TERRELL, TX 56 75 58 76 54 / 5 20 30 10 20
CORSICANA, TX 59 77 57 76 54 / 5 30 30 10 10
TEMPLE, TX 58 76 58 76 53 / 5 40 30 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLUB 072136
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
336 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SHORT TERM...
ONLY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS DEGREE OF
MOISTURE ADVECTION OVERNIGHT AS A NOCTURNAL SOUTHERLY LLJ RAMPS UP
ONCE AGAIN. RECENT REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS REVEAL THE LEADING EDGE OF
50+F DEWPOINTS HAS ALREADY NUDGED INTO THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS WITHIN
A BACKING LL FLOW. WEAK PRESSURE FALLS MEANWHILE AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LOW WEST OF THE BIG BEND SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MOISTURE
ADVECTION AREA WIDE THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE DRIEST AIR
PERSISTING ACROSS OUR WRN ZONES. SLOW REMOVAL OF THIS DRY AIR
ON THE CAPROCK SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT RAPID COOLING LATE TONIGHT
WHICH WILL FURTHER ASSIST IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS PATCHY LIGHT FOG BY SUN MORNING...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS
OBSERVED THIS MORNING FROM ABI SOUTHWEST TO SJT. OTHERWISE THE ONLY
OTHER EFFECT FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
CIRRIFORM CLOUDS AS THIS FEATURE TRANSITIONS INTO AN OPEN WAVE ON
SUNDAY AND TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA. IMPROVED LL MOISTURE ON
SUNDAY AND REDUCED THIKNESSES SHOULD HINDER THE DEEP MIXING
OBSERVED TODAY AND THIS WILL SUPPORT A ROUND OF SLIGHTLY COOLER
MAX TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM...
FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS CENTERED ON THE IMPACTS OF AN
EARLY WEEK FROPA.
NEAR ZONAL FLOW IS PROGGED TO BUCKLE/AMPLIFY MONDAY TOWARD A
DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST PATTERN. THIS WILL AID
THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF A 1030MB SURFACE HIGH FROM THE GREAT BASIN
OVER THE DIVIDE AND THROUGH THE PLAINS. FROPA IS EXPECTED LOCALLY
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY...AND MODEL SIGNALS FOR STRATUS
REMAIN IN BOTH THE PRE AND POST FRONTAL AIRMASSES. SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO DPICT LIGHT QPF ALONG AND IN WAKE OF THE FRONT.
HOWEVER SIGNALS FOR NOTABLE FORCING/ASCENT ARE LACKING UNDER
BUILDING HEIGHTS AS THE MENTIONED UA RIDGE AXIS TRANSLATES
EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY EARLY TUESDAY. THUS REMAIN
RELUCTANT TO INCREASE POPS ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCE /20 PERCENT/...BUT
WILL INTRODUCE A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH FROPA AS WEAK INSTABILITY
IS PROGGED...AND WILL WEIGHT WEATHER GRIDS TOWARD FOG/DRIZZLE GIVEN
SATURATED LOW LEVEL PROFILES AND WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TOWARD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF AN EVOLVING BROAD WESTERN U.S. TROUGH MID/LATE
WEEK. THIS WILL PROMOTE LEE TROUGHING/MODERATION. SOLUTIONS CONTINUE
TO DIFFER IN HANDLING THE EVENTUAL EJECTION OF THIS TROUGH OVER
THE ROCKIES/PLAINS LATE WEEK...BUT HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A NORTHERN
TRACK. THUS HAVE DELAYED THE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF RAIN/COOL TEMPS
UNTIL THE ASSOCIATED FROPA SATURDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ATTEMPTED AG BURN IN NORTHERN BAILEY COUNTY ESCAPED THIS
ATERNOON AND GREW INTO A LARGE GRASS FIRE. ALTHOUGH LOCAL RFW
CRITERIA ARE NOT THREATENED...WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ACTUALLY
MODERATELY SUPPORTIVE OF WILDFIRE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHWEST
ZONES PER A LOCAL STUDY...MAINLY DUE TO ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPS...
VERY DRY AIR /RH NR 10 PERCENT/...AND MODEST BREEZES. THUS HAVE
ADDRESSED THIS WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND HAZARD PRODUCT
GIVEN POSSIBILITY FOR ADDITIONAL ATTEMPTS OF SEASONAL AG BURNS IN
THAT AREA. TEMPS/RH WILL IMPROVE NOTABLY BY SUNSET...BUT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 42 75 42 63 40 / 0 10 10 20 20
TULIA 45 76 44 68 43 / 0 10 10 20 20
PLAINVIEW 46 76 45 70 43 / 0 10 10 20 20
LEVELLAND 46 76 46 71 45 / 0 10 10 20 20
LUBBOCK 49 75 49 72 45 / 0 10 10 20 20
DENVER CITY 45 76 47 72 44 / 0 10 10 10 20
BROWNFIELD 46 75 47 72 45 / 0 10 10 20 20
CHILDRESS 51 76 49 72 45 / 0 10 10 20 20
SPUR 51 76 49 73 46 / 0 10 10 20 20
ASPERMONT 53 77 52 73 47 / 0 10 10 20 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
93/20
000
FXUS64 KHGX 072136
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
335 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SUNDAY ACROSS COASTAL WATERS AS
SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPEN OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF.
THIS WILL BE MORE EVIDENT SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH FLOW BECOMING
NORTHEAST AND STRENGTHENING MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS AND
GALVESTON COUNTIES. AS MENTIONED IN CWFHGX HIGHEST TIDE LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY NIGHT. TIDE LEVELS
BETWEEN 3.8 AND 4.6 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA AND THE WEST END OF
GALVESTON ISLAND. POPS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUR FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES WILL HAVE HIGHER CHANCES WITH CHANCES LOWERING
NORTHWESTWARD. SURFACE TROUGH/LOW WILL MOVE TOWARDS LOUISIANA/ALABAMA
MONDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES RAPIDLY DIMINISHING OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES.
ASIDE FROM THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING OUR REGION SUNDAY THE NORTHWEST
ZONES WILL HAVE LOWER RAIN CHANCES AS HIGHEST PWATS WILL BE MAINLY
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF CWFA. IT WILL BE DRY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING. WE DID NOT CHANGE
THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THIS PACKAGE WHICH INCLUDES NEXT WEEKEND DUE
TO MODEL DIFFERENCES THUS LEAVING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. 37
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS ARE CREEPING UP OVER THE FAR WATERS AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LONG PERIOD SWELLS AROUND 8-10 SECONDS
WILL CONTINUE AND AS WINDS INCREASE THIS EVENING WILL MEET SCA
CRITERIA. HAVE ISSUED AN SCA FOR THE 0-60 WATERS AND MAY ADD ONE
THIS AFTERNOON AFTER SEEING THE 12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE ON THE TRACK
OF SW GULF LOW AND IDA.
TIDES RUNNING 0.5-1.1 FEET ABOVE NORMAL AND PLAN TO UPDATE CFW
STATEMENT AROUND NOON AS WELL.
45
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED/BROKEN DECK 2800-3500FT BREAKING UP WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...DECK OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS HAS DISSIPATED AND GLS
WEBCAMS SHOWING THIS TREND CLEARLY. CI ALSO STARTING TO SPREAD NORTH
INTO THE COASTAL AREAS.
BIG DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN NAM AND GFS GUIDANCE ON CIG/VISBY TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. 12Z NAM ONLY SHOWING A BRIEF PERIOD FROM 12ZISH-18Z OF
MVFR CIGS...WHEREAS THE GFS GUIDANCE IS MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC...BY
09Z MOST SITES ARE IFR AND CONTINUING THROUGH 18Z.
MUCH DEPENDS ON THE TRACK OF THE SW GULF LOW SUNDAY MORNING...
OVERALL THE FORECAST WILL BE DETERIORATING AS THE EASTERLY GRADIENT
BEGINS TO INCREASE AND LAYER RH INCREASES TONIGHT. WILL INSTIGATE
MVFR CONDITIONS BY 09Z AREAWIDE WITH CIGS OF AROUND 1200-1700FT.
AREAS TO THE NORTH OF IAH MAY HAVE SOME LIGHT FOG BUT WINDS MAY
EASILY PRECLUDE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS OVER
CLL/UTS/CXO SHOULD LEAD TO IFR OR NEAR IFR BY 12Z LOWERING DURING
THE 12-16Z TIMEFRAME. AT IAH SOUTHWARD STRONGER WINDS WILL BE ON
TAP BUT WITH MORE MOISTURE SO HAVE FAVORED A MORE WIDESPREAD
900-1200FT CIG SCENARIO FROM 11Z ON. LOOKING BACK AT THE CLIMO HAS
RAISED CONFIDENCE ON THE CIGS FORECAST WITH EAST WINDS IN NOVEMBER
FROM 10-18Z. ANOTHER CONCERN MAY BE EAST WINDS 35-40KTS AT
2000-4000FT AFTER 18Z FOR IAH/HOU.
45
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 60 79 60 78 58 / 10 30 20 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 61 77 62 77 59 / 10 40 40 20 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 67 76 65 75 63 / 10 50 50 30 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM 3 AM CST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KEWX 072135
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
335 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
INITIAL PATTERN IS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST BACK ACROSS NORTHERN TX INTO NM WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
BAJA PENINSULA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND STRETCHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST TO CENTRAL TX. THIS SET UP
WILL LEAD TO A CLOUDLESS EVENING AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
EXPECT THIS TO BRING A REPEAT OF MORNING FOG..THE WORST OF WHICH
WILL BE ALONG THE ESCARPMENT AND DOWN I37. WE MAY NEED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY...BUT WILL LET LATER SHIFTS SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP.
LATER ON SUN THE TROUGH IN THE WEST WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO INTO TX. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS. DEEP
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AND BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST.
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
STARTING MON...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ABOVE OUR
AREA RETURNING DRY AND WARM WEATHER.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 61 74 61 77 60 / - 30 20 - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 56 74 58 77 56 / - 30 20 - 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 55 74 59 77 56 / - 30 20 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 56 70 58 73 56 / - 20 20 0 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 61 75 60 77 56 / - 10 - 0 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 58 73 59 75 57 / - 20 20 - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 55 75 60 77 58 / - 30 20 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 56 74 59 76 58 / - 30 20 - 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 57 75 61 77 58 / - 40 20 - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 57 74 60 77 59 / - 30 20 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 58 75 60 76 58 / - 30 20 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/25
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 072133
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
233 PM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK CLOSED LOW ALOFT OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING
BRINGING THE BORDERLAND ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
BEFORE IT EXITS THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH FLAT RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER OUR AREA MOST OF NEXT WEEK
KEEPING US DRY AND MILD WITH THE MINOR EXCEPTION OF A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHEAST...WHICH IS FORECAST TO PUSH
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE BORDERLAND MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY
MORNING...BRINGING OCCASIONALLY BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS TO THE WEST
SLOPES OF AREA MOUNTAINS AND COOLING OUR TEMPERATURES DOWN
SOMEWHAT BY MIDWEEK. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A SLIGHT RISK OF
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND EXTREME EASTERN
OTERO COUNTY AND FAR NORTHEAST HUDSPETH COUNTY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW FORECAST TO
APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS TOWARD THE LATTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK PRODUCING PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL WESTERLY
BREEZES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
OUR UPPER AIR CIRCULATION PATTERN CONTINUES TO REMAIN REMAIN IN A
VERY PROGRESSIVE 4 TO 5 WAVE PA TERN WITH A STRONG POLAR FRONT JET
NORTH OF 40 DEG LATITUDE NORTH AND CONTINUES AT TIMES TO SPLIT
OFF SOME WEAKER ENERGY IMPULSES (S/WV TROUGHS) FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES KEEPING US IN A
SOMEWHAT SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. AN ENSEMBLE OF SIX MAIN FORECAST
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OUT 144 HOURS (VERY SHARP
AGREEMENT THROUGH 96 HOURS). THERE APPEAR TO BE THREE FEATURES OF
ANY SIGNIFICANCE FOR US. THE FIRST FEATURE IS THE CLOSED BAJA LOW
(27N 108W) NICELY SHOWING UP IN ALL SIM WITH SOME ENHANCED CLOUDS
AND EVEN SOME CONVECTION SHOWING UP IN THE SIERRA MADRES AS DEEPER
MOISTURE, OROGRAPHICS, AND PVA COME INTO PLAY. APPEARS THE GFS MAY
BE ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOW ON THIS FEATURE. A NICE DEFORMATION FIELD IN
THE THICK MID/HIGH CLOUDS IS SHOWING UP OVER OUR CWA. AT ANY RATE
ANY SIG WX SHOULD STAY SOUTH AND CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE OUT BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AT LATEST.
FEATURE TWO IS THE SFC BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH SOUTH
WARD OUT THE NORTHERN GT PLAINS FOLLOWING A STRONG S/WV TROUGH ALOFT
PASSAGE THERE MONDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD TRACK INTO OUR CWA MONDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE CHARACTERISTIC OCCASION
BREEZY WEST SLOPE EASTERLY WINDS AND DROP TEMPS TUES/WED SOME 5
DEG F OR SO. GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT IN BRINGING SOME
UPSLOPE PRECIP TO THE EASTERN SACRAMENTOS (SLIGHT RISK AT 10 %)
AND FAR EAST OTERO/FAR NE HUDSPETH IN THE 06Z-18Z TUES TIME FRAME.
CONFIDENCE IN THE SCENARIO IS RUNNING ABOUT 60-65% WITH MOST MOISTURE
FORECAST EAST OF OUR CWA. KEEPING THE ABOVE MENTIONED ON THE
FRINGE.FEATURE THREE WILL PLAY OUT THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A MUCH STRONG STRONG TROUGH ALOFT IN THE
ONGOING SERIES FORECAST TO MOVE UNITED STATES FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST BACKING AND GRADUALLY INCREASING OUR WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT RESULTING IN PERIODS OF MID/HI CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL BREEZY
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND SURFACE LEE TROUGHING IS INDUCED IN
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. FOR NOW ANY SHOWERS ARE FORECAST NORTH OF CWA
BUT IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT WITH ANY STRENGTHENING OF THIS TROUGH
FARTHER SOUTH IN TIME THAT AT LEST THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO WOULD HAVE AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS.
&&
AVIATION...VALID 08/00Z-09/00Z...
VFR CONDTS THRU PD WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. HIGH
CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OFF BAJA WILL CONT
SPREADING OVER AREA THE AREA FROM THE WEST. FEW-SCT150-180 AND BKN
250-300 AREA LIKELY ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY. INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND
DIMINISHED NIGHT-TIME RH RECOVERIES AS A RESULT...WILL BE THE ONLY
EFFECTS WITH THIS SYSTEM. NO WETTING PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED...AS
MAJORITY OF ATMOSPHERE FROM GROUND UP WILL REMAIN TOO DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH IMPROVING NIGHT-TIME RH
RECOVERIES NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BEGINS TO SLOWLY
RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH FOR CLEARING
SKIES. SLOW NATURE OF BUILDING RIDGE...WILL ALLOW WEAK SHORTWAVE TO
MOVE THROUGH FOUR CORNERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY SEND
WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT THRU MON NIGHT. HIGHS TUESDAY SHOULD
REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL...WITH 2 TO 8 DEGREES OF COOLING
POSSIBLE BELOW MONDAYS HIGHS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
22 - TRIPOLI
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 50 77 49 78 47 / 0 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA TX 47 74 45 75 42 / 10 10 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 47 76 46 77 44 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 44 72 43 73 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 29 61 29 61 30 / 0 0 0 0 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 43 76 43 76 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 40 72 40 73 37 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEMING 46 76 44 77 41 / 0 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 46 77 44 78 42 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
20/22 NOVLAN (PUB) / TRIPOLI (AVN FWF)
000
FXUS64 KSJT 072131
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
331 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SHORT TERM...
CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL OPEN AND MOVE
EAST ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
INITIALLY THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER
STRATUS DECK EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A DEVELOPING 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH MIXING TO LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BUT COULD
SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING
CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S. LOW CLOUDS MAY BE SLOW TO SCATTER OUT TOMORROW MORNING
AS MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH LIMIT
MIXING POTENTIAL INITIALLY. CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN A BIT COOLER
TEMPS SUNDAY BUT STILL NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES WITH
HIGHS MAINLY LOWER 70S. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NW HILL COUNTRY AND HEARTLAND SUN AFTERNOON
WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE WILL EXIST BUT ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED
TO BE VERY LIGHT.
.LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE LOCATED EAST
OF THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST OVER PRIMARILY
THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY AND EASTERN HEARTLAND SUNDAY EVENING.
DRY FORECAST IS ON TAP MONDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EAST OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT OVER PRIMARILY
THE NORTHERN CWA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN
CHANCES END AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LOW. NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN STATES THE FIRST OF THE WEEK AND THEN
THROUGH THE UPPER PLAINS BY LATE IN THE WEEK. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS THE BEST DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
POST FRONTAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S
TUESDAY... WARMING INTO THE 70S OVER ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BY
THURSDAY. NEXT UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE IS FORECASTED THROUGH THE AREA
OVER THE COMING WEEKEND...WITH NO ASSOCIATED RAINFALL EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 55 73 52 74 47 / 10 10 10 10 20
SAN ANGELO 55 73 52 76 47 / 10 10 10 10 10
JUNCTION 55 73 54 77 48 / 10 20 20 10 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
24/15
000
FXUS64 KCRP 072111
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
311 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...VIGOROUS DETACHED
S/WV TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST FROM BAJA TO NRN MEXICO THIS AFTN. THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS S/CEN TEXAS SUN AND SUN EVENING PROVIDING
LARGE SCALE LIFT AND SOME MODEST MID LEVEL COOLING TO THE REGION.
THE BEST LIFT WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 18Z AND 24Z SUN...TAPERING OFF IN
THE EVENING. THE GULF LOW ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL SLOWLY
MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD AND IS ACTUALLY SOMEWHAT UNFORTUNATE
AS IS WILL ACTUALLY LIMIT RETURN FLOW...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ACROSS S TX. HOWEVER...THE LOW MAY REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SE THAT
SIGNIFICANT SUBSIDENCE ON THE WRN SIDE DOES NOT REACH THE AREA
UNTIL SUN NIGHT. ALSO...IT STILL APPEARS ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
PRESENT TO PROVIDE SCT TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSTMS ON SUN GIVEN
STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOC W/ THE UPR SYSTEM TO THE WEST. OVERALL
INSTABILITY IS NOT GREAT WITH CAPES GENERALLY BELOW 1000 J/KG AND
SHEAR IS NOT STRONG SO UNLESS THINGS HEAT UP MUCH MORE THAN
ANTICIPATED...APPEARS SVR TSTMS SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE. ECMWF IS
MOST AGGRESSIVE W/ QPF SHOWING 1/2-1 INCH TOTAL RAINFALL ACROSS
CEN ZONES...WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE. THE ECM IS
PROBABLY A BIT AGGRESSIVE...BUT ISOLD AMOUNTS AROUND 1 INCH OR
LITTLE HIGH MAY BE POSSIBLE. BEST POPS IN LIKELY RANGE WILL OCCUR
ACROSS CEN/ERN ZONES ON SUN BUT WILL KEEP LINGERING SLT CHC-CHC
POPS SUN NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS IN WRN ZONES AT 00Z.
GIVEN INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...THINK FOG SHOULD NOT BE
AN ISSUE NEXT FEW NIGHTS.
&&
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...A POTENT SRN STREAM S/WV WL
MOVE QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF THE CWA ON MONDAY
MORNING. THE S/WV WL TAKE THE SFC LOW ORIGINATING FROM THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE EWD TWDS IDA. HOWEVER...THE MAIN EFFECT WL BE INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MON AS RIDGING AT ALL LVLS BUILDS
INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTHWEST. A STRONG RDG AXIS ALOFT WITH THEN
BUILD INTO THE CWA THROUGH THURSDAY. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER
AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT/WED BEHIND A WK COLD FNT. THIS
FNT WL BE DRAWN THROUGH THE CWA AS DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LOW MERGES WITH IDA ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF. MOISTURE WL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY FRI AS THE SFC RDG AXIS
FINALLY WEAKENS AND ALLOWS ONSHORE FLOW TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP.
CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION ON SAT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SRN STREAM
S/WV WL ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED PCPN. GENERALLY WENT
WITH A BLEND OF GFS AND ENSEMBLE MOS TEMPS THROUGH THE PD. TIDAL
LVLS WL LKLY REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MIDWEEK...ESPECIALLY ON MON DUE
TO ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDES AND LARGE SWELLS FROM BOTH THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND IDA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 67 79 64 80 60 / 20 70 30 10 0
VICTORIA 62 77 60 77 57 / 10 70 40 10 0
LAREDO 66 86 64 83 60 / 10 40 10 10 0
ALICE 64 81 63 82 58 / 10 70 30 10 0
ROCKPORT 68 79 65 79 62 / 20 70 40 10 0
COTULLA 62 77 61 83 56 / 10 40 10 10 0
KINGSVILLE 65 80 64 81 59 / 20 70 30 10 0
NAVY CORPUS 70 79 67 79 64 / 20 70 30 10 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
MJG...SHORT TERM
MB...LONG TERM
000
FXUS64 KMAF 072057
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
257 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN SONORA MX AND
SOUTHERN AZ. THIS FEATURE WILL OPEN INTO A WAVE AND MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...AND WILL EXIT TO
THE EAST OF OUR CWFA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. ENOUGH MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE PECOS RIVER. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG STILL LOOK
FEASIBLE ACROSS LOCATIONS EAST OF THE PECOS RIVER THROUGH MID SUNDAY
MORNING. SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE
ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...SENDING THE NEXT COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BASIN AND THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT UPGLIDE ABOVE THE BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF
FOG AND DRIZZLE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO BE MUCH COOLER TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND ALSO WITH
THE CLOUD COVER STAYING IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH FLOW
ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS A BROAD TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THE
DEPTH OF THIS TROUGH WILL STILL BE IN QUESTION. CURRENT TRENDS
SUGGEST THAT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE WARM...AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE BOTH DAYS...THEN FRONTAL PASSAGE POSSIBLE BY
SATURDAY. TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY
THE TROUGH WILL SWING EASTWARD. HAVE TRENDED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WARM FOR NOW...AND LEFT A COOL FORECAST IN PLACE SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX 53 75 53 72 / 0 10 10 10
CARLSBAD NM 45 80 47 74 / 10 0 0 10
DRYDEN TX 53 74 54 75 / 20 20 10 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 54 80 53 76 / 10 10 0 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 51 72 49 69 / 10 10 0 0
HOBBS NM 49 77 49 70 / 0 10 0 10
MARFA TX 41 74 37 73 / 20 10 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 51 76 52 73 / 0 10 0 10
ODESSA TX 53 76 53 73 / 0 10 0 10
WINK TX 51 81 51 76 / 10 10 0 10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
67/21
000
FXUS64 KBRO 071937
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
130 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...CLOUD SHIELD SLOWLY MIGRATED NORTH FM ADJ MEX OVR
CAMERON...HIDALGO...BROOKS...KENEDY AND WILLACY COUNTIES ATTM. KBRO
DOPPLER SHOWS SHRAS 75 MILES S OF BRO MVG WEST AT 20 MPH...WITH
ISOLATED SHRAS 130 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF POR MVG NORTH. GULF OF
MEXICO WX IS IN FLUX AS TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...ONE FM CAMPECHE
AND THE OTHER T.S. IDA...CONVERGE TOWARD THE NRN GULF. AS OUR LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MVS NW TOWARD THE
RGV...SHRAS/TSRAS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE PRE-DAWN SUNDAY THRU EARLY
MONDAY AS BOTH SYSTEMS BLEND INTO A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN
THE CENTRAL GULF BY MONDAY. AN UPPER TROF CURRENTLY OVR THE CENTRAL
BAJA WILL ARRIVE MONDAY...SHUNTING THESE SYSTEMS AND THEIR
ASSOCIATED MSTR AND DYNAMICS TO LA/MS/FL WITH COPIOUS RAINFALL XPCTD
IN THAT REGION LATE MONDAY THRU TUESDAY. OUR CONVECTION SHUD BEGIN
BY THIS EVENING AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SUNDAY AS THE
INVERTED SFC TROF DRIVES NORTH INTO THE RGV. RESIDUAL -SHRAS XPCTD
EARLY MONDAY THRU MID AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROF DRAGS A WEAK CF
THRU THE REGION. BY LATE MONDAY THE TROF AXIS IS WELL EAST...WITH NW
FLOW ALOFT AND SUNNY AND DRY WX TO FOLLOW FOR THE WEEK. LITTLE CAA
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S DURING THE DAY AND MORNING LOWS FROM 58 TO 62 DEG F FOR THE
WEEK. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL STORM IDA...LOCATED ABOUT 230 MILES SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL
MEXICO. IDA IS FCST TO ENTER THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTH OF THE TIP OF
THE YUCATAN MONDAY AND REMAIN IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AS IT
SLOWLY WEAKENS AND ENTERS AL/FL PNHNDL EARLY TUESDAY. LONG PERIOD
SWELLS OF 10 FEET WILL ENTER OUR MARINE AREAS BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUE THRU WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...THE 12 PM OBSERVATION FROM BUOY020 INDICATED WINDS WERE
EAST AROUND 12 KTS GUSTING TO AROUND 16 KTS AND SEAS WERE AROUND 6
FT WITH A PERIOD OF 9 SECONDS. MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOWER TX
COASTAL WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DETERIORATE DURING THE NEXT
24 HRS AS A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LIFTS
NWD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A TIGHTENING LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS TROF AND A SFC RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL ALLOW
EASTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE WITH TIME OVRNGT TNGT THRU SUNDAY. SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BUILD THRU THIS TIME WITH SCA CONDITIONS
PROBABLY FOR BOTH THE NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND
BEYOND. THINK THE SCA CRITERIA SEAS WILL DEVELOP LATER TNGT OR
AROUND MIDNIGHT IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS. WILL BRIEF INCOMING SHIFT ON
SITUATION SO TRENDS CAN BE MONITORED BEFORE A DECISION ON THE SCA IS
MADE. TROPICAL STORM IDA CONTINUES TO SLIDE THRU THE CARRIBEAN SE OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT. IDA IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO PUSH NWD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOCAL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN AGITATED THRU THIS TIME
AS A RESULT OF IDA. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NE BY LATE SUN INTO MON
WILL REMAIN MODERATE TO STRONG ALLOWING FOR SEAS TO REMAIN HIGH. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN RATHER TIGHT THRU WED
ACROSS THE LOWER TX GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. MODERATE TO STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE THRU MIDWEEK WITH ELEVATED SEAS
PREVAILING. THIS SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
SITUATION WITH A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT. AN UPGRADE TO A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...THE 3 LOCAL TAF SITES ARE REPORTING VFR CONDITIONS EARLY
THIS AFTN WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. LLVL CU HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TX THIS AFTN UNDERNEATH MID TO HIGHER LVL CLDS STREAMING
IN FROM THE SE OFF THE GULF IN ASSOC WITH A SFC TROF. CLD COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PERIOD AS THE TROF LIFTS NWD INTO
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED TO
INCREASE SUN NEAR COASTAL LOCALES. AT THIS POINT...ADDED VCSH TO THE
BRO AND HRL TAFS BEGINNING SUN MRNG. THE LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY
WIND IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD. ATTM...RETAINED VFR
CONDITIONS THRU SUN MRNG. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE MVFR CIGS IF
SHOWER ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE PREVALENT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 69 80 68 83 / 30 50 20 20
BROWNSVILLE 67 80 67 82 / 20 50 20 20
HARLINGEN 66 82 65 85 / 20 50 20 20
MCALLEN 66 83 66 88 / 10 40 20 20
RIO GRANDE CITY 61 82 63 87 / 10 30 20 20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 69 80 66 84 / 30 50 30 20
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE
58/54/VEGA
000
FXUS64 KSJT 071814
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1214 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR PREVAILS ACROSS ALL OF THE TERMINALS WITH SOME LINGERING VFR
STRATUS OVER THE KSOA AND KJCT TERMINALS. THIS AREA OF STRATUS
WILL DISSIPATE 19-20Z WITH CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND
20 KT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WEAK UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING WITH A 30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. MVFR/IFR STRATUS DECK EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE TERMINALS AFT 09Z ALONG WITH SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES
DUE TO FOG...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN TERMINALS. SHOULD SEE THE STRATUS
LINGER WELL INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS GIVEN SLOWER MIXING
POTENTIAL DUE TO MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER. VFR EXPECTED SUN AFTERNOON
WITH MAINLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.
COULD SEE A LIGHT SHOWER OVER THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS BUT CONFIDENCE RATHER LOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 938 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE MENTION OF FOG OVER SOUTHERN ZONES.
DISCUSSION...
FOG HAS DISSIPATED BUT BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATUS DECK COVERS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA AS OF MID MORNING. MOISTURE IS VERY
SHALLOW AND WITH MIXING SHOULD SEE THE STRATUS DISSIPATE RATHER
QUICKLY IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. CURRENT SKY GRIDS IN GOOD SHAPE
WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTH AND MOSTLY SUNNY NORTH BY
NOON. AFTERNOON HIGHS LOOK GOOD WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER
70S SOUTH TO LOW 80S ACROSS FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 516 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
AVIATION...
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE DEVELOPING/MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA
THIS MORNING. CIGS OF 1100 FEET ARE AT JUNCTION AT THIS TIME WITH
CEILINGS AS LOW AS 500 FEET AT KERRVILLE AND 100 FEET AT EDWARDS
COUNTY AIRPORT. VISIBILITY VALUES HAVE ALSO BEEN REDUCED TO 3 TO 5
MILES AT THESE LOCATIONS...SO WILL INCLUDE LOWERED VISIBILITIES IN
TEMPO GROUPS THIS MORNING. SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS MOISTURE TO BE VERY
SHALLOW...SO EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG TO MIX OUT BY 15Z OR 16Z.
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY 18Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY
AND INCLUDE GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AGAIN LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE AREA TONIGHT...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS WILL BRING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG INTO THE AREA AGAIN OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY
EARLIER THAN 09Z. MAY INCLUDE A PREVAILING GROUP OF LOW CLOUDS AT
KJCT...KSOA...KBBD BEFORE 12Z FOR THESE CLOUDS. 20
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
SHORT TERM...
FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS MOVING EAST THIS MORNING AS A CLOSED LOW
CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA MOVES EAST TOWARDS WEST TEXAS.
THIS CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
CURRENTLY...VERY SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS RESULTING IN
DEVELOPING FOG/STRATUS OVER THE HILL COUNTRY. THESE CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHWARD INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
THIS MORNING. BY MID TO LATE MORNING...DUE TO THE SHALLOW DEPTH OF
THE MOISTURE...THE LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE QUICKLY MIXING
OUT OF THE AREA. SO...WILL KEEP INCREASED SKYCOVER VALUES AND PATCHY
FOG IN THROUGH 15Z OR SO FOR AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
OZONA TO SAN ANGELO TO SAN SABA. WITH LEE TROUGHING MAINTAINING
ITSELF EAST OF THE ROCKY MTNS...SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
WINDS SOUTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE WARM TODAY UNDER MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE AREA TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG...GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. WE WILL LIKELY SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS THE LOW WILL BRING A MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD DECK WITH IT AS IT APPROACHES. WILL NOT BRING ANY PRECIP INTO
THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS VERY NEAR THE CENTER...AND SINCE
WE WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH LIMITED MOISTURE DEPTH HERE...EXPECT
ANY PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY TO WAIT UNTIL DAYLIGHT HOURS OF SUNDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WARM LOWS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
CLOUDCOVER HELPING TO KEEP RADIATIONAL COOLING AT BAY.
20
LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORTWAVE TROF WILL CONTINUE EAST ACROSS TEXAS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A SLGT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
MAINLY THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY AND HEARTLAND. ALSO...SOME WEAK
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...SO ADDED ISOLD
TSTMS TO THE WX GRIDS. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE EAST OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY...SO A DRY FORECAST. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL BE 70 TO 75.
WILL KEEP THE SLGT CHC POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA
ALONG WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF MAY APPROACH WEST CENTRAL TEXAS NEXT WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THE THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SHOWING UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS TROF. THE EC IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF...HOWEVER MOST OF THE DYNAMICS AND QPF
AMOUNTS ARE LOCATED EAST OF THE CWFA. WILL GO WITH A DRY NEXT
WEEKEND.
21
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 80 54 75 55 74 / 0 10 10 10 10
SAN ANGELO 79 54 73 54 75 / 0 10 10 10 10
JUNCTION 78 55 72 53 74 / 0 10 20 20 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/24
000
FXUS64 KHGX 071803
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1201 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED/BROKEN DECK 2800-3500FT BREAKING UP WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...DECK OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS HAS DISSIPATED AND GLS
WEBCAMS SHOWING THIS TREND CLEARLY. CI ALSO STARTING TO SPREAD NORTH
INTO THE COASTAL AREAS.
BIG DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN NAM AND GFS GUIDANCE ON CIG/VISBY TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. 12Z NAM ONLY SHOWING A BRIEF PERIOD FROM 12ZISH-18Z OF
MVFR CIGS...WHEREAS THE GFS GUIDANCE IS MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC...BY
09Z MOST SITES ARE IFR AND CONTINUING THROUGH 18Z.
MUCH DEPENDS ON THE TRACK OF THE SW GULF LOW SUNDAY MORNING...
OVERALL THE FORECAST WILL BE DETERIORATING AS THE EASTERLY GRADIENT
BEGINS TO INCREASE AND LAYER RH INCREASES TONIGHT. WILL INSTIGATE
MVFR CONDITIONS BY 09Z AREAWIDE WITH CIGS OF AROUND 1200-1700FT.
AREAS TO THE NORTH OF IAH MAY HAVE SOME LIGHT FOG BUT WINDS MAY
EASILY PRECLUDE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS OVER
CLL/UTS/CXO SHOULD LEAD TO IFR OR NEAR IFR BY 12Z LOWERING DURING
THE 12-16Z TIMEFRAME. AT IAH SOUTHWARD STRONGER WINDS WILL BE ON
TAP BUT WITH MORE MOISTURE SO HAVE FAVORED A MORE WIDESPREAD
900-1200FT CIG SCENARIO FROM 11Z ON. LOOKING BACK AT THE CLIMO HAS
RAISED CONFIDENCE ON THE CIGS FORECAST WITH EAST WINDS IN NOVEMBER
FROM 10-18Z. ANOTHER CONCERN MAY BE EAST WINDS 35-40KTS AT
2000-4000FT AFTER 18Z FOR IAH/HOU.
45
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MORNING SOUNDINGS INDICATE RELATIVELY MOIST LAYER NEAR SURFACE TO
975 MB AND QUITE DRY LAYER ABOVE UP TO 400 MB. CLUSTER OF SC OVER
UPPER TX COASTAL WATERS TRYING TO PUSH NE INLAND BUT NOT MAKING
MUCH HEADWAY. THIN CIRRUS OVER MUCH OF CWFA. ZFPHGX ON TRACK.
&&
MARINE...
WINDS ARE CREEPING UP OVER THE FAR WATERS AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LONG PERIOD SWELLS AROUND 8-10 SECONDS
WILL CONTINUE AND AS WINDS INCREASE THIS EVENING WILL MEET SCA
CRITERIA. HAVE ISSUED AN SCA FOR THE 0-60 WATERS AND MAY ADD ONE
THIS AFTERNOON AFTER SEEING THE 12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE ON THE TRACK
OF SW GULF LOW AND IDA.
TIDES RUNNING 0.5-1.1 FEET ABOVE NORMAL AND PLAN TO UPDATE CFW
STATEMENT AROUND NOON AS WELL.
45
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 79 60 79 60 81 / 10 10 30 20 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 78 61 77 62 77 / 10 10 50 30 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 75 70 76 68 76 / 10 20 50 40 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KEWX 071739
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1139 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SE SFC WINDS NEAR 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THIS EVENING. AN INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FEW-SCT STRATOCU TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
OVERNIGHT WITH AN MVFR/IFR STRATUS DECK. A RECURRENCE OF FOG IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR...WITH VSBYS POSSIBLY DROPPING TO
LIFR/VLIFR. SHRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD AS A DISORGANIZED UPPER LEVEL GULF LOW STREAMS UP THE TEXAS
COAST. GENERALLY EXPECTING SHRA THROUGH THE MORNING WITH ISOLATED
TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
UPDATE...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY CANCELLED.
DISCUSSION...
SUN HAD ERODED FOG AND VISIBILITIES HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE
CWA...SO HAVE CANCELLED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 954 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
UPDATE...
TO ADJUST DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
DISCUSSION...
FOG IS ERODING AROUND THE EDGES...SO HAVE ADJUSTED THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. HAVE CANCELLED IT IN THE NORTH AND
EAST AND EXTENDED IT ALONG THE ESCARPMENT AND DOWN I37 UNTIL NOON.
VIS IS SLOW TO INCREASE FROM TRAVIS TO UVALDE COUNTIES AND SOUTH
THROUGH ATASCOSA. EXPECT ALL AREAS TO BE FOG FREE BY NOON AS SUN
CONTINUES TO ERODE IT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
AVIATION...
BKN-OVC STRATUS AND WIDESPREAD FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS MORNING WITH VLIFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS. STRATUS AND FOG
WILL MIX OUT LATE THIS MORNING WITH VFR SKIES OF FEW STRATOCUMULUS
AND SCT CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. STRATUS AND FOG
WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH IFR TO MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY LEADING TO CHANCES
OF SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY MORNING. SELY WINDS 5 TO 12 KTS WILL PREVAIL
MOST OF TODAY WITH LIGHTER AND VARIABLE AT OTHER TIMES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAS FORMED MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 AND
SOME LOW STRATUS OVER THE HILL COUNTRY IS LIKELY PROVIDING PATCHY
DENSE FOG TO SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT BY 10 AM,
AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PERSISTENCE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
THE EFFECTS OF A PACIFIC UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA
BY LATE TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO APPEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT MOVES ACROSS TX SUNDAY, AND STABLE AIR ALOFT
SHOULD BUILD IN ITS WAKE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. MILD TO COOL CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING
DYNAMICS FROM THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT SHOULD PREVENT A SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT, BUT A FEW STRONG STORM CELLS MAY DEVELOP DUE TO
TIMING OF AFTERNOON HEATING. SPOTTY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE-HALF
TO ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF I-35. THE UPPER TROUGH
PASSAGE ON MONDAY SHOULD KEEP ANY EFFECTS OF TROPICAL STORM IDA
OUT OF THE PICTURE FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A COLD FRONT EXPECTED
OVER TX TUESDAY IS SHOWING WEAKENING TRENDS WITH EACH NEW MODEL
RUN AS IS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHERN US. THUS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE
PICTURE FOR TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THE SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE WEAK FRONT LOOKS UNLIKELY TO REMOVE
MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, SO SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WOULD
NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE EARLY MORNINGS LATE NEXT WEEK,
WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES BY NEXT
SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 77 59 74 60 77 / - 10 40 30 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 77 56 74 59 77 / - 10 40 30 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 77 58 74 59 77 / - 10 40 30 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 76 57 70 56 73 / - 10 30 30 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 79 60 75 61 77 / - 10 30 10 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 76 58 73 59 75 / - 10 30 30 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 78 58 75 59 77 / - 10 40 20 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 77 57 74 59 76 / - 10 40 30 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 78 60 75 61 77 / - 10 50 30 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 77 59 74 61 77 / - 10 40 30 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 78 59 75 59 76 / - 10 40 30 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/25
000
FXUS64 KLUB 071738
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1138 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.AVIATION...
VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS COURTESY OF
A NOCTURNAL 35-45 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET BEFORE SUBSIDING AROUND 10Z. BY
SUNDAY MORNING THERE SHOULD BE SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS
REDUCED VIS ADVECTING NORTH WITHIN THE INCREASINGLY MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW...HOWEVER ANY THREAT TO VFR CRITERIA SHOULD BE
BRIEF AND CONFINED TO LBB AND POINTS SOUTH.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE
EASTWARD TODAY WITH AN APPROACHING CLOSED LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA.
MODELS DO AGREE TO DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM INTO AN OPEN WAVE BY SUNDAY
MORNING AS IT ENTERS FAR WEST TEXAS. THICKER HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY
BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING. THE
UNSEASONABLE WARMTH WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 15
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. HOWEVER...TEMPS TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY WITH LESS OF A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS AND
DECREASING THICKNESSES. JDV
LONG TERM...
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY...GENERALLY
UNDERGOING SLOW WEAKENING. MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY THICKEN ENOUGH
SOUTHEAST ZONES EARLY SUNDAY WITH MODEST UPWARDS MOTION TO
GENERATE LIGHT SHOWERS ALOFT...WITH DIFFICULTY OVERCOMING A DEEP
SUB-CLOUD DRY LAYER...THOUGH WE VERY WELL MAY HAVE A LOW CLOUD
DECK AS WELL. NOT IMPOSSIBLE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES TO REACH THE
GROUND BUT LEAVING MENTION OUT FOR NOW. SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN MILD
THOUGH A BIT MORE THICKNESS AND MOISTURE RELATED COOLING COMPARED
TO SATURDAY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SCOOTING BY QUICKLY TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY REMAINS SLIGHTLY MORE VIGOROUS WITH THE GFS DEPICTION
THOUGH DIFFERENCES LESS SIGNIFICANT THAN 24 HOURS AGO. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY.
ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN IN LOWER LEVELS FOR AT LEAST A LOW
MENTION OF SHOWERS BY LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS
WITH LOW SHOWER CHANCES LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING SOUTHWEST ZONES THOUGH BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT STILL
SUGGEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE MINOR...LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE.
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL MID-WEEK WITH WARMING AND
DRYING BEFORE MORE ENERGY PERHAPS MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATER
IN THE WEEK. CHANGING MODELS DO NOT GIVE MUCH TO GRAB ONTO...BUT
WILL RETAIN A LOW MENTION OF SHOWERS WITH A BIT OF COOLING HEADING
IN TO NEXT WEEKEND. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 78 42 75 42 65 / 0 0 10 10 20
TULIA 81 45 75 44 70 / 0 0 10 10 20
PLAINVIEW 80 46 74 46 73 / 0 0 10 10 20
LEVELLAND 80 46 76 46 74 / 0 0 10 10 10
LUBBOCK 80 49 75 49 75 / 0 0 10 10 10
DENVER CITY 79 45 76 47 75 / 0 0 10 10 10
BROWNFIELD 80 46 76 47 75 / 0 0 10 10 10
CHILDRESS 83 51 75 49 76 / 0 0 10 10 20
SPUR 81 51 75 49 77 / 0 0 10 10 10
ASPERMONT 80 53 74 52 77 / 0 0 10 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
93/20/93
000
FXUS64 KMAF 071736
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1136 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT MVFR...IF NOT
IFR...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND AFFECT
MOST TAF SITES BY SUNDAY MORNING. WILL ONLY CARRY A PREVAILING MVFR
CEILING AT MIDLAND WHERE THE CEILINGS WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED AND
TEMPORARY IFR CEILINGS TOO. TEMPO GROUPS WILL BE USED AT ALL OTHER
TAF SITES DUE TO MORE UNCERTAINTY. 67
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KCRP 071733 AAA
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1133 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...WILL SEE A CONTINUED MOISTENING AND WARMING TREND
TODAY AS A SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. S TX REMAINS
POSITIONED BETWEEN A BAJA LOW MVG EAST AND SFC LOW PRESSURE IN THE
GOMEX AND THUS NO SIG WX ON TAP FOR TODAY OTHER THAN AN INCREASE
IN SKY COVER. THESE FEATURES WILL COM INTO PLAY FOR SUNS WX WHEN POPS
INCREASE TO CHC-LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA. NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED
TO CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...A BAJA LOW HAS MOVED INTO NWRN MEXICO AND WILL MV
ACROSS TEXAS ON SUN PROVIDING SCT-NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSTMS WITH ERN
AREAS FAVORED FOR HIGHEST PRECIP CHCS. BEST RAIN CHCS WILL OCCUR
AROUND OR AFTER 18Z. HAVE SOME PROB30 AND TEMPO GROUPS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE CONVECTION. WILL KEEP AS SHRA AND NOT MENTION ISOLD TSTM
CHCS FOR NOW...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT SOME TSTMS IN THE AREA THE LAST
FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST. AS THE UPR LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
WILL SEE INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER WHICH SHOULD LIMIT FOG-
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHAT...HOWEVER GIVEN FAVORABLE LIGHT WINDS
AND GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE...IT IS A TOUGH FORECAST
REGARDING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT. MAY EVEN SEE QUICK DROP TO
LIFR LEVELS AROUND MIDNIGHT THEN IMPROVEMENT LATE DEPENDING ON
TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE THINKER MID-HIGH CLOUDS AND/OR ANY
BREAKS THAT OCCUR. FOR NOW AM SHOWING VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND
SUN MORNING AT FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR FOG/STRATUS (VCT AND
ALI)...THEN MVFR CONDITIONS ASSOC W/ THE INCREASE IN PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO INCLUDE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...A FEW AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS OVER VCT AND IFR CONDITIONS FROM ALI TO COT TO BEA.
ELSEWHERE MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE COASTAL AREAS
AND OUT WEST OVER LRD. EXPECTING FOG TO BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER
15Z. CLOUDS AND WINDS INCREASE AREA-WIDE TODAY AND WILL ALLOW VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AND HELP KEEP FOG DEVELOPMENT DOWN.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF DENSE FOG FORMING AGAIN EARLY THIS
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. A FEW OTHER SITES
HAVE ALSO FALLEN TO 1/2 TO 1/4 MILE VSBYS FURTHER WEST. WILL
CONTINUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
FORMATION OF FOG THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...PLEASANT
WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY WITH HIGHER LEVELS OF MOISTURE RETURNING
TO THE REGION AS EASTERLY WINDS INCREASE. ON SUNDAY...AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM NORTHERN MEXICO AND WILL
INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SYSTEM TAPS
INTO THE HIGHER LEVELS OF MOISTURE. DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALSO HELP
TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MARINE...EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. LATEST FORECAST LOOKS TO KEEP THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FURTHER EAST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF...AND WILL LIMIT THE TIME OF
STRONGEST EASTERLY WINDS. THUS LESSENING THE THREAT FOR COASTAL
FLOODING. HOWEVER...INCREASING SWELLS AND HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
WILL RESULT IN MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY...INCREASED WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE
ISSUANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LATER THIS WEEKEND.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW UPPER TROUGH TO BE EAST OF
AREA WITH JET DYNAMICS WELL OUT OF AREA. THINK MOS POPS KEYING ON
MEAN RH FIELDS AOA 80 PERCENT RATHER THAN FORCING...SO WILL GO NO
MORE THAN LOW CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTHEAST INLAND AREAS (LOWER
SOUTH AND WEST)...AND 40 POPS GULFMEX WHERE SOME REMAINING
CONVECTION COULD STILL BE AROUND IN THE EVENING. EXPECT RAIN TO BE
OVER INLAND AREAS NO LATER THAN 12Z MONDAY AND GULFMEX NO LATER THAN
18Z MONDAY AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SEEP IN. WINDS BECOME
MORE TO THE NORTH MONDAY THEN NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT...SO CONCERN
FOR RIP CURRENTS AND COASTAL FLOODING SHOULD CEASE BY MONDAY
(PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS ALSO FALL). UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
IN AND DRIER AIR COMES DOWN...SO SHOULD BE A QUIET WEEK NEXT WEEK.
UPPER RIDGE KEEPS ITS INFLUENCE OVER SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY
(ALTHOUGH IT MOVES EAST BY THEN) SO THAT THE INFLUENCES OF THE UPPER
TROUGH WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST STAY OUT OF THE AREA. WILL
ONLY SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS BY FRIDAY. OVERALL...STAYED ON THE
LOW SIDE OR BELOW GUIDANCE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT OUT
WEST FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WHICH SEEM A BIT TOO COOL AT TIMES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 81 66 80 64 79 / 10 20 60 20 10
VICTORIA 81 62 77 60 78 / 10 10 60 30 20
LAREDO 86 64 81 63 82 / 0 10 30 10 10
ALICE 84 64 80 62 81 / 10 20 50 20 10
ROCKPORT 80 67 79 67 79 / 10 20 60 30 20
COTULLA 82 61 77 59 79 / 0 10 40 10 10
KINGSVILLE 82 66 80 63 80 / 10 30 50 20 10
NAVY CORPUS 79 68 79 68 78 / 10 20 60 30 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
MJG...UPDATE/AVIATION
000
FXUS64 KAMA 071720 AAB
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1120 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE OK AND NORTHERN TX
PANHANDLES...IS RESULTING IN VARIABLE WINDS FOR THOSE AREAS. EXPECT
THE WINDS AT KGUY AND KDHT TO REMAIN VARIABLE THROUGH 21Z...BEFORE
SHIFTING TO SOUTHERLY OR SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
SHOULD THEN PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. A LOW LEVEL JET IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...THOUGH THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND NAM DEPICT IT MORE OVER SW KS.
THEREFORE...THINK THAT KGUY IS THE ONLY TAF SITE AT RISK OF LLWS
DEVELOPING...AND IT SHOULD BE BORDERLINE AT THAT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH ONLY SCT CIRRUS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SJOHNSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 514 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
AVIATION...
GOOD FLYING WX IS EXPECTED TDA. CI WILL BE ONLY CLOUDS OF NOTE. SFC
WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KT TDA...WITH SFC WINDS AT NRN TAF
SITES BRIEFLY BECOMING NWLY AS SFC TROF MOVES SLOWLY SWD. SLY SFC
WINDS RESUME AT ALL TAF SITES BY LATE AFTN. LOW-LEVEL JET SETS UP
TNGT...PRODUCING AREAS OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AFTER 06Z SUN. VFR
FCST CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.
COCKRELL
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...
APPEARS ANOTHER WARM DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE PANHANDLES. COULD SEE A
FEW MORE RECORD HIGHS EITHER TIED OR SET TODAY...BUT THIS IS MAINLY
DUE TO THE RELATIVELY LOW RECORDS IN PLACE AT DALHART AND BORGER. IN
FACT...HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGHS IN JEOPARDY OF FALLING TODAY.
AMARILLO...86 SET IN 1934.
DALHART...80 SET IN 2005.
BORGER...83 SET IN 2005.
MAV AND MET ARE NOT IN LINE AS THE MAV IS RUNNING 3 TO 5 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE MET. EVEN SO...THE WARMER MET SOLUTION ONLY SHOWS 83 FOR
AMARILLO. SO DECIDED TO GO WITH THE MET SOLUTION FOR A FEW REASONS.
MORNING LOWS SHOULD START OFF IN THE MID 40S AND EVEN THOUGH WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE DOWN TODAY...THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST COMPONENT WILL
SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION. ALSO...MODEL PROGGED 850MB
TEMPS ARE ONLY DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO FROM YESTERDAY AND 1000-500MB
THICKNESSES SHOULD BE ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY AS WELL. GIVEN
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND MIXING TAKING PLACE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO
REACH INTO THE 80S. ONLY CAVEAT IS FOR THE NORTHERN CWA WHERE A
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING A MORE NORTHERLY WIND
COMPONENT BY THE AFTERNOON KEEPING HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES LOWER.
KEPT THE DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT THE NEXT FRONT IS
APPROACHING FOR MONDAY. INCREASING DEW POINTS LEADING UP TO THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL HELP PROVIDE LL MOISTURE...WHILE A UPPER SHORT
WAVE WILL HELP PROVIDE SUPPORT ALOFT. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING
FOR MONDAY AND INTRODUCED THUNDER FOR THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A BRIEF WINDOW OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY SO
THINKING A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. TRENDED
WITH GUIDANCE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
RETURNING. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PAC NW
BY MID WEEK...AND HEAD TOWARD THE PANHANDLES BY THURSDAY. SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE THE EURO IS SHOWING A DEEPER AND
SLOWER MOVING TROUGH THAN THE GFS. THE CONCERNING PART THOUGH...IS
THAT THE EURO THEN EJECTS THE LOW QUITE RAPIDLY AND ENDS UP WITH A
MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION BY THE END OF SUNDAY. THIS SEEMS A BIT
UNLIKELY SO DECIDED TO TREND WITH THE GFS FOR NOW. AS A RESULT...THE
GFS BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PANHANDLES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THOUGHT THE MEX WAS RUNNING A BIT
WARM IN THE EXTENDED FOR POST FRONTAL AIRMASS IN MID NOVEMBER...SO
LOWERED TEMPS BY 3 OR 4 DEGREES. ALSO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
PLACE FOR THE EXTENDED MAINLY DURING THE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TIME
PERIOD.
JJB
FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AIR IN PLACE TODAY SHOULD CAUSE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL
BELOW 20 PERCENT. HOWEVER...EXPECTING WIND SPEEDS TO REMAIN BELOW 15
MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE TO ISSUE A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT TODAY. COOLER AIR AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL THEN FILTER
INTO THE PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH
THE PANHANDLES MONDAY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
16/11
000
FXUS64 KFWD 071717 AAB
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1117 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
TODAY...CIGS IMPROVING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SOUTH WINDS
FROM 10-15 KTS.
TONIGHT...IFR CIGS WILL RETURN BY 08Z-10Z. LIGHT SOUTHEAST 10 KTS
OR LESS.
SUNDAY...CIGS IMPROVING INTO MVFR BY LATE MORNING AND VFR AFTER
18Z. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS.
&&
.UPDATE...
WILL BE SENDING OUT A QUICK FORECAST UPDATE TO UPDATE THE STRATUS
COVERAGE AND ADJUST HIGHS A BIT TODAY LOWERING TEMPS A DEGREE OR
TWO WHERE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HRS. IN GENERAL...STRATUS OVER NORTH TX HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF LIFTING
AND SCATTERING OUT OVER THE PAST HR. THE METROPLEX WILL LIKELY
RETURN TO MOSTLY SUNNY IF NOT CLEAR SKIES AFTER NOON...AND THEN
AREAS SOUTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HRS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S QUICKLY
AFTER CLOUD COVER ERODES.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOP NORTHWARD...WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED
TO REACH AS FAR NORTH AS A PARIS TO DENTON TO COMANCHE LINE BY MID
MORNING. CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF BY NOON...AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
MILD TEMPS WILL PREVAIL AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD
TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING ADDITIONAL GULF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE RETURN
WILL BE HAMPERED BY TROPICAL STORM IDA AND A NON TROPICAL SURFACE
LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...KEEPING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE
LOW LEVELS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...AND THUS DEEPER TROPICAL
MOISTURE BOTTLED UP.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD ROUND OF LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. STRONG
LARGE SCALE FORCING WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY AND DEGREE OF LIFT WILL COMPENSATE FOR THE
LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN AND PERHAPS
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES...BUT WILL KEEP POPS AT 30 PERCENT OR LESS BASED ON THE
LIMITED MOISTURE. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...THESE LOW CHANCES OF RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST. LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO MONDAY...WITH PERHAPS A LIGHT OR
VERY ISOLATED SHOWER...BUT HAVE KEPT POPS OUT OF THE WORDED
FORECAST MONDAY DUE TO AN ABSENCE OF LIFTING MECHANISMS.
IDA IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO A LARGE NON-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY
MID WEEK...WITH OUR WINDS IN NORTH TEXAS GRADUALLY BECOMING
NORTHERLY IN RESPONSE TO CHANGING PRESSURE PATTERN. HARD TO CALL
IT A COLD FRONT SINCE THE WIND SHIFT WILL BE GRADUAL...BUT SOME
COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND VERY NICE WEATHER.
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE NEXT
WEEKEND...SO EXPECT INCREASING MOISTURE/CLOUDS/WINDS BY FRIDAY
WITH SOME LOW POPS SATURDAY.
TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 78 58 74 59 79 / 0 5 20 20 10
WACO, TX 78 58 75 60 77 / 0 5 30 30 10
PARIS, TX 77 52 72 56 75 / 0 5 20 20 10
DENTON, TX 79 55 74 57 79 / 0 5 20 20 10
MCKINNEY, TX 77 53 73 57 76 / 0 5 20 20 10
DALLAS, TX 78 58 75 60 79 / 0 5 20 20 10
TERRELL, TX 77 57 74 59 76 / 0 5 20 30 10
CORSICANA, TX 78 58 73 59 78 / 0 5 30 30 10
TEMPLE, TX 78 59 74 59 78 / 0 5 30 30 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KEWX 071715
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1115 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.UPDATE...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY CANCELLED.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SUN HAD ERODED FOG AND VISIBILITIES HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE
CWA...SO HAVE CANCELLED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 954 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
UPDATE...
TO ADJUST DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
DISCUSSION...
FOG IS ERODING AROUND THE EDGES...SO HAVE ADJUSTED THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. HAVE CANCELLED IT IN THE NORTH AND
EAST AND EXTENDED IT ALONG THE ESCARPMENT AND DOWN I37 UNTIL NOON.
VIS IS SLOW TO INCREASE FROM TRAVIS TO UVALDE COUNTIES AND SOUTH
THROUGH ATASCOSA. EXPECT ALL AREAS TO BE FOG FREE BY NOON AS SUN
CONTINUES TO ERODE IT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
AVIATION...
BKN-OVC STRATUS AND WIDESPREAD FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS MORNING WITH VLIFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS. STRATUS AND FOG
WILL MIX OUT LATE THIS MORNING WITH VFR SKIES OF FEW STRATOCUMULUS
AND SCT CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. STRATUS AND FOG
WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH IFR TO MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY LEADING TO CHANCES
OF SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY MORNING. SELY WINDS 5 TO 12 KTS WILL PREVAIL
MOST OF TODAY WITH LIGHTER AND VARIABLE AT OTHER TIMES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAS FORMED MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 AND
SOME LOW STRATUS OVER THE HILL COUNTRY IS LIKELY PROVIDING PATCHY
DENSE FOG TO SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT BY 10 AM,
AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PERSISTENCE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
THE EFFECTS OF A PACIFIC UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA
BY LATE TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO APPEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT MOVES ACROSS TX SUNDAY, AND STABLE AIR ALOFT
SHOULD BUILD IN ITS WAKE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. MILD TO COOL CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING
DYNAMICS FROM THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT SHOULD PREVENT A SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT, BUT A FEW STRONG STORM CELLS MAY DEVELOP DUE TO
TIMING OF AFTERNOON HEATING. SPOTTY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE-HALF
TO ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF I-35. THE UPPER TROUGH
PASSAGE ON MONDAY SHOULD KEEP ANY EFFECTS OF TROPICAL STORM IDA
OUT OF THE PICTURE FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A COLD FRONT EXPECTED
OVER TX TUESDAY IS SHOWING WEAKENING TRENDS WITH EACH NEW MODEL
RUN AS IS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHERN US. THUS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE
PICTURE FOR TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THE SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE WEAK FRONT LOOKS UNLIKELY TO REMOVE
MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, SO SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WOULD
NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE EARLY MORNINGS LATE NEXT WEEK,
WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES BY NEXT
SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 77 59 74 60 77 / - 10 40 30 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 77 56 74 59 77 / - 10 40 30 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 77 58 74 59 77 / - 10 40 30 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 76 57 70 56 73 / - 10 30 30 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 79 60 75 61 77 / - 10 30 10 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 76 58 73 59 75 / - 10 30 30 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 78 58 75 59 77 / - 10 40 20 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 77 57 74 59 76 / - 10 40 30 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 78 60 75 61 77 / - 10 50 30 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 77 59 74 61 77 / - 10 40 30 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 78 59 75 59 76 / - 10 40 30 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/25
000
FXUS64 KFWD 071710
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1110 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.UPDATE...
WILL BE SENDING OUT A QUICK FORECAST UPDATE TO UPDATE THE STRATUS
COVERAGE AND ADJUST HIGHS A BIT TODAY LOWERING TEMPS A DEGREE OR
TWO WHERE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HRS. IN GENERAL...STRATUS OVER NORTH TX HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF LIFTING
AND SCATTERING OUT OVER THE PAST HR. THE METROPLEX WILL LIKELY
RETURN TO MOSTLY SUNNY IF NOT CLEAR SKIES AFTER NOON...AND THEN
AREAS SOUTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HRS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S QUICKLY
AFTER CLOUD COVER ERODES.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.AVIATION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK EXTENDING FROM
AUSTIN TO WACO TO JUST SOUTHEAST OF DFW METROPLEX AT 500 AM. THE
STRATUS WAS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTHWARD AND IT NOW APPEARS THAT
IFR CEILINGS WILL AFFECT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES FOR SEVERAL HOURS
THIS MORNING. WILL FORECAST CEILINGS AROUND 500 FEET UNTIL ABOUT
10 AM CDT WHEN MIXING SHOULD HELP DISSIPATE AND SCATTER OUT THE
STRATUS.
AFTER CLOUDS DISSIPATE THIS MORNING...VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS. EXPECT STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TO
OCCUR AGAIN TONIGHT...AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUES TO BRING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. DEEPER MOISTURE ON
SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MORE PERSISTENT IFR CLOUD
COVER...WITH CEILINGS LIKELY NOT IMPROVING UNTIL LATE SUNDAY
MORNING OR EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
09
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOP NORTHWARD...WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED
TO REACH AS FAR NORTH AS A PARIS TO DENTON TO COMANCHE LINE BY MID
MORNING. CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF BY NOON...AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
MILD TEMPS WILL PREVAIL AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD
TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING ADDITIONAL GULF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE RETURN
WILL BE HAMPERED BY TROPICAL STORM IDA AND A NON TROPICAL SURFACE
LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...KEEPING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE
LOW LEVELS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...AND THUS DEEPER TROPICAL
MOISTURE BOTTLED UP.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD ROUND OF LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. STRONG
LARGE SCALE FORCING WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY AND DEGREE OF LIFT WILL COMPENSATE FOR THE
LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN AND PERHAPS
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES...BUT WILL KEEP POPS AT 30 PERCENT OR LESS BASED ON THE
LIMITED MOISTURE. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...THESE LOW CHANCES OF RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST. LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO MONDAY...WITH PERHAPS A LIGHT OR
VERY ISOLATED SHOWER...BUT HAVE KEPT POPS OUT OF THE WORDED
FORECAST MONDAY DUE TO AN ABSENCE OF LIFTING MECHANISMS.
IDA IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO A LARGE NON-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY
MID WEEK...WITH OUR WINDS IN NORTH TEXAS GRADUALLY BECOMING
NORTHERLY IN RESPONSE TO CHANGING PRESSURE PATTERN. HARD TO CALL
IT A COLD FRONT SINCE THE WIND SHIFT WILL BE GRADUAL...BUT SOME
COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND VERY NICE WEATHER.
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE NEXT
WEEKEND...SO EXPECT INCREASING MOISTURE/CLOUDS/WINDS BY FRIDAY
WITH SOME LOW POPS SATURDAY.
TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 78 58 74 59 79 / 0 5 20 20 10
WACO, TX 78 58 75 60 77 / 0 5 30 30 10
PARIS, TX 77 52 72 56 75 / 0 5 20 20 10
DENTON, TX 79 55 74 57 79 / 0 5 20 20 10
MCKINNEY, TX 77 53 73 57 76 / 0 5 20 20 10
DALLAS, TX 78 58 75 60 79 / 0 5 20 20 10
TERRELL, TX 77 57 74 59 76 / 0 5 20 30 10
CORSICANA, TX 78 58 73 59 78 / 0 5 30 30 10
TEMPLE, TX 78 59 74 59 78 / 0 5 30 30 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHGX 071615
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1015 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
MORNING SOUNDINGS INDICATE RELATIVELY MOIST LAYER NEAR SURFACE TO
975 MB AND QUITE DRY LAYER ABOVE UP TO 400 MB. CLUSTER OF SC OVER
UPPER TX COASTAL WATERS TRYING TO PUSH NE INLAND BUT NOT MAKING
MUCH HEADWAY. THIN CIRRUS OVER MUCH OF CWFA. ZFPHGX ON TRACK.
&&
MARINE...
WINDS ARE CREEPING UP OVER THE FAR WATERS AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LONG PERIOD SWELLS AROUND 8-10 SECONDS
WILL CONTINUE AND AS WINDS INCREASE THIS EVENING WILL MEET SCA
CRITERIA. HAVE ISSUED AN SCA FOR THE 0-60 WATERS AND MAY ADD ONE
THIS AFTERNOON AFTER SEEING THE 12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE ON THE TRACK
OF SW GULF LOW AND IDA.
TIDES RUNNING 0.5-1.1 FEET ABOVE NORMAL AND PLAN TO UPDATE CFW
STATEMENT AROUND NOON AS WELL.
45
&&
.AVIATION...
SKIES CLEARING OR SCATTERING OUT...VFR THROUGH 02Z THEN EXPECTING
MVFR/IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP PRIMARILY AFTER 02-05Z TIMEFRAME.
45
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
AVIATION...
AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH VSBYS
HAVE BEEN MORE VARIABLE THAN LAST NIGHT. EXPECT FOG TO CLEAR OUT
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST MID
AFTERNOON. WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY AM EXPECTING
LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP WITH MVFR CIGS BY SATURDAY EVENING OR EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE KEPT PREVAILING CIGS MVFR OVERNIGHT BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE IFR CIGS FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE ON
SUNDAY...AND HAVE ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR IAH TO ADVERTISE THIS
POTENTIAL. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND STRONGER SFC WINDS THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. 38
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...
PATCHY FOG NOT QUITE AS WIDESPREAD AS FORECAST BUT WILL WAIT A BIT
TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. AM LEANING TOWARD CANCELING THE ADVISORY. PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS MOISTURE LEVELS SLOWLY INCREASE. ON
SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE
TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.6 INCHES. THE AREA
WILL ALSO LIE IN A STRONG RIGHT REAR QUAD. MODEL QPF IS NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE BUT FEEL THE DYNAMICS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
GENERATE RAINFALL SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE
TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH THE
UPPER FLOW BECOMING STRONGLY CONVERGENT. SKIES WILL CLEAR MONDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN
OVER TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEK FINALLY PUSHING EAST BY THE END OF
THE WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO TEXAS FROM THE WEST.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE NEXT WEEKEND AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION NEXT SUNDAY. 43
MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP BETWEEN AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. FORECAST MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
THEIR HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE KEEPING IT A BIT WEAKER AND FARTHER
EAST THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. WITH A SHORTER DURATION OF ENHANCED
WINDS FEEL THAT THE COASTAL FLOOD THREAT IS SLIGHTLY LESS THAN IN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS...AND NO COASTAL FLOOD WATCH OR WARNING WILL BE
ISSUED FOR THIS PACKAGE. SOME AREAS PARTICULARLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO
TIDAL FLOODING MAY BE BRIEFLY IMPACTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS TIDES
WILL RUN AOA 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST.
WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY AFTERNOON BUT WOULD EXPECT TO SEE ADVISORIES BEGIN THIS
EVENING OR TONIGHT PARTICULARLY FOR THE OUTER ZONES. 38
AVIATION...
FOG OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN AGAIN DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH INCREASING MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE. 38
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 79 60 79 60 81 / 10 10 30 20 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 78 61 77 62 77 / 10 10 50 30 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 75 70 76 68 76 / 10 20 50 40 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KEWX 071554
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
954 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.UPDATE...
TO ADJUST DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
FOG IS ERODING AROUND THE EDGES...SO HAVE ADJUSTED THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. HAVE CANCELLED IT IN THE NORTH AND
EAST AND EXTENDED IT ALONG THE ESCARPMENT AND DOWN I37 UNTIL NOON.
VIS IS SLOW TO INCREASE FROM TRAVIS TO UVALDE COUNTIES AND SOUTH
THROUGH ATASCOSA. EXPECT ALL AREAS TO BE FOG FREE BY NOON AS SUN
CONTINUES TO ERODE IT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
AVIATION...
BKN-OVC STRATUS AND WIDESPREAD FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS MORNING WITH VLIFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS. STRATUS AND FOG
WILL MIX OUT LATE THIS MORNING WITH VFR SKIES OF FEW STRATOCUMULUS
AND SCT CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. STRATUS AND FOG
WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH IFR TO MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY LEADING TO CHANCES
OF SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY MORNING. SELY WINDS 5 TO 12 KTS WILL PREVAIL
MOST OF TODAY WITH LIGHTER AND VARIABLE AT OTHER TIMES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAS FORMED MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 AND
SOME LOW STRATUS OVER THE HILL COUNTRY IS LIKELY PROVIDING PATCHY
DENSE FOG TO SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT BY 10 AM,
AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PERSISTENCE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
THE EFFECTS OF A PACIFIC UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA
BY LATE TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO APPEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT MOVES ACROSS TX SUNDAY, AND STABLE AIR ALOFT
SHOULD BUILD IN ITS WAKE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. MILD TO COOL CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING
DYNAMICS FROM THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT SHOULD PREVENT A SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT, BUT A FEW STRONG STORM CELLS MAY DEVELOP DUE TO
TIMING OF AFTERNOON HEATING. SPOTTY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE-HALF
TO ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF I-35. THE UPPER TROUGH
PASSAGE ON MONDAY SHOULD KEEP ANY EFFECTS OF TROPICAL STORM IDA
OUT OF THE PICTURE FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A COLD FRONT EXPECTED
OVER TX TUESDAY IS SHOWING WEAKENING TRENDS WITH EACH NEW MODEL
RUN AS IS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHERN US. THUS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE
PICTURE FOR TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THE SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE WEAK FRONT LOOKS UNLIKELY TO REMOVE
MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, SO SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WOULD
NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE EARLY MORNINGS LATE NEXT WEEK,
WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES BY NEXT
SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 77 59 74 60 77 / - 10 40 30 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 77 56 74 59 77 / - 10 40 30 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 77 58 74 59 77 / - 10 40 30 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 76 57 70 56 73 / - 10 30 30 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 79 60 75 61 77 / - 10 30 10 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 76 58 73 59 75 / - 10 30 30 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 78 58 75 59 77 / - 10 40 20 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 77 57 74 59 76 / - 10 40 30 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 78 60 75 61 77 / - 10 50 30 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 77 59 74 61 77 / - 10 40 30 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 78 59 75 59 76 / - 10 40 30 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
ATASCOSA...BASTROP...BEXAR...CALDWELL...COMAL...FRIO...GUADALUPE...
HAYS...KENDALL...MEDINA...TRAVIS...UVALDE.
&&
$$
05/25
000
FXUS64 KSJT 071538 AAA
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
938 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE MENTION OF FOG OVER SOUTHERN ZONES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
FOG HAS DISSIPATED BUT BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATUS DECK COVERS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA AS OF MID MORNING. MOISTURE IS VERY
SHALLOW AND WITH MIXING SHOULD SEE THE STRATUS DISSIPATE RATHER
QUICKLY IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. CURRENT SKY GRIDS IN GOOD SHAPE
WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTH AND MOSTLY SUNNY NORTH BY
NOON. AFTERNOON HIGHS LOOK GOOD WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER
70S SOUTH TO LOW 80S ACROSS FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 516 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
AVIATION...
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE DEVELOPING/MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA
THIS MORNING. CIGS OF 1100 FEET ARE AT JUNCTION AT THIS TIME WITH
CEILINGS AS LOW AS 500 FEET AT KERRVILLE AND 100 FEET AT EDWARDS
COUNTY AIRPORT. VISIBILITY VALUES HAVE ALSO BEEN REDUCED TO 3 TO 5
MILES AT THESE LOCATIONS...SO WILL INCLUDE LOWERED VISIBILITIES IN
TEMPO GROUPS THIS MORNING. SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS MOISTURE TO BE VERY
SHALLOW...SO EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG TO MIX OUT BY 15Z OR 16Z.
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY 18Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY
AND INCLUDE GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AGAIN LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE AREA TONIGHT...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS WILL BRING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG INTO THE AREA AGAIN OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY
EARLIER THAN 09Z. MAY INCLUDE A PREVAILING GROUP OF LOW CLOUDS AT
KJCT...KSOA...KBBD BEFORE 12Z FOR THESE CLOUDS. 20
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
SHORT TERM...
FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS MOVING EAST THIS MORNING AS A CLOSED LOW
CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA MOVES EAST TOWARDS WEST TEXAS.
THIS CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
CURRENTLY...VERY SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS RESULTING IN
DEVELOPING FOG/STRATUS OVER THE HILL COUNTRY. THESE CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHWARD INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
THIS MORNING. BY MID TO LATE MORNING...DUE TO THE SHALLOW DEPTH OF
THE MOISTURE...THE LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE QUICKLY MIXING
OUT OF THE AREA. SO...WILL KEEP INCREASED SKYCOVER VALUES AND PATCHY
FOG IN THROUGH 15Z OR SO FOR AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
OZONA TO SAN ANGELO TO SAN SABA. WITH LEE TROUGHING MAINTAINING
ITSELF EAST OF THE ROCKY MTNS...SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
WINDS SOUTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE WARM TODAY UNDER MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE AREA TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG...GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. WE WILL LIKELY SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS THE LOW WILL BRING A MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD DECK WITH IT AS IT APPROACHES. WILL NOT BRING ANY PRECIP INTO
THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS VERY NEAR THE CENTER...AND SINCE
WE WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH LIMITED MOISTURE DEPTH HERE...EXPECT
ANY PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY TO WAIT UNTIL DAYLIGHT HOURS OF SUNDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WARM LOWS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
CLOUDCOVER HELPING TO KEEP RADIATIONAL COOLING AT BAY.
20
LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORTWAVE TROF WILL CONTINUE EAST ACROSS TEXAS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A SLGT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
MAINLY THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY AND HEARTLAND. ALSO...SOME WEAK
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...SO ADDED ISOLD
TSTMS TO THE WX GRIDS. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE EAST OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY...SO A DRY FORECAST. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL BE 70 TO 75.
WILL KEEP THE SLGT CHC POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA
ALONG WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF MAY APPROACH WEST CENTRAL TEXAS NEXT WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THE THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SHOWING UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS TROF. THE EC IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF...HOWEVER MOST OF THE DYNAMICS AND QPF
AMOUNTS ARE LOCATED EAST OF THE CWFA. WILL GO WITH A DRY NEXT
WEEKEND.
21
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 80 54 75 55 74 / 0 10 10 10 10
SAN ANGELO 79 54 73 54 75 / 0 10 10 10 10
JUNCTION 78 55 72 53 74 / 0 10 20 20 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
24/99
000
FXUS64 KBRO 071506
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
905 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...EXTENDED GRIDS TO 15 NOV...ADDED FG...MATCHED POPS TO
HPC QPF AND REMOVED POPS DURING DRY PD LATE MONDAY THRU LATE
SATURDAY. ISSUED NEW GRIDS AND SUBSEQUENT PRODUCTS.
&&
.MARINE...THE 8 AM OBSERVATION FROM BUOY020 INDICATED WINDS WERE
EAST AROUND 12 KTS GUSTING TO AROUND 14 KTS AND SEAS WERE AROUND
AROUND 6 FT WITH A 9 SECOND PERIOD. THE LOWER TX COASTAL WATERS WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE A LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW TDA. A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVRNGT AND INTO SUN WILL ALLOW THE
EASTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RISE DUE
TO THE EASTERLY SWELL FROM PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW ALONG WITH THE
TIGHTENING GRADIENT AND INCREASING WINDS. SCA CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP OVRNGT AND INTO SUN AS THE SEAS BUILD. SOME
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
SCENARIO ATTM.
&&
.AVIATION...MID TO HIGH LVL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ADVANCE INTO PORTIONS
OF DEEP SOUTH TX THIS MRNG. SOME BRIEF FOG WAS REPORTED EARLIER THIS
MRNG AT HRL WITH VSBYS DROPPING TO 1 1/2 SM. ANY LEFTOVER FOG SHOULD
DIMINISH SHORTLY. SOME LLVL CU DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
MID TO HIGH LVL CLDS REMAINING THRU AFTN. A LIGHT TO MODERATE
EASTERLY WIND CAN BE EXPECTED THRU TDA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THE NEXT 24 HRS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 82 69 83 69 / 20 40 50 50
BROWNSVILLE 85 67 84 67 / 30 30 50 30
HARLINGEN 85 66 84 66 / 20 20 50 30
MCALLEN 82 68 84 68 / 0 10 40 20
RIO GRANDE CITY 84 63 84 64 / 0 10 30 30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 82 71 81 70 / 30 40 50 50
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE
58/57
000
FXUS64 KEWX 071146
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
546 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.AVIATION...
BKN-OVC STRATUS AND WIDESPREAD FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS MORNING WITH VLIFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS. STRATUS AND FOG
WILL MIX OUT LATE THIS MORNING WITH VFR SKIES OF FEW STRATOCUMULUS
AND SCT CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. STRATUS AND FOG
WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH IFR TO MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY LEADING TO CHANCES
OF SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY MORNING. SELY WINDS 5 TO 12 KTS WILL PREVAIL
MOST OF TODAY WITH LIGHTER AND VARIABLE AT OTHER TIMES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAS FORMED MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 AND
SOME LOW STRATUS OVER THE HILL COUNTRY IS LIKELY PROVIDING PATCHY
DENSE FOG TO SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT BY 10 AM,
AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PERSISTENCE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
THE EFFECTS OF A PACIFIC UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA
BY LATE TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO APPEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT MOVES ACROSS TX SUNDAY, AND STABLE AIR ALOFT
SHOULD BUILD IN ITS WAKE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. MILD TO COOL CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING
DYNAMICS FROM THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT SHOULD PREVENT A SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT, BUT A FEW STRONG STORM CELLS MAY DEVELOP DUE TO
TIMING OF AFTERNOON HEATING. SPOTTY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE-HALF
TO ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF I-35. THE UPPER TROUGH
PASSAGE ON MONDAY SHOULD KEEP ANY EFFECTS OF TROPICAL STORM IDA
OUT OF THE PICTURE FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A COLD FRONT EXPECTED
OVER TX TUESDAY IS SHOWING WEAKENING TRENDS WITH EACH NEW MODEL
RUN AS IS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHERN US. THUS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE
PICTURE FOR TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THE SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE WEAK FRONT LOOKS UNLIKELY TO REMOVE
MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, SO SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WOULD
NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE EARLY MORNINGS LATE NEXT WEEK,
WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES BY NEXT
SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 77 59 74 60 77 / - 10 40 30 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 77 56 74 59 77 / - 10 40 30 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 77 58 74 59 77 / - 10 40 30 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 76 57 70 56 73 / - 10 30 30 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 79 60 75 61 77 / - 10 30 10 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 76 58 73 59 75 / - 10 30 30 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 78 58 75 59 77 / - 10 40 20 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 77 57 74 59 76 / - 10 40 30 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 78 60 75 61 77 / - 10 50 30 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 77 59 74 61 77 / - 10 40 30 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 78 59 75 59 76 / - 10 40 30 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...
GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...LAVACA...
LEE...LLANO...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON.
&&
$$
18/04
000
FXUS64 KCRP 071144 AAA
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
544 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO INCLUDE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...A FEW AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS OVER VCT AND IFR CONDITIONS FROM ALI TO COT TO BEA.
ELSEWHERE MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE COASTAL AREAS
AND OUT WEST OVER LRD. EXPECTING FOG TO BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER
15Z. CLOUDS AND WINDS INCREASE AREA-WIDE TODAY AND WILL ALLOW VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AND HELP KEEP FOG DEVELOPMENT DOWN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF DENSE FOG FORMING AGAIN EARLY THIS
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. A FEW OTHER SITES
HAVE ALSO FALLEN TO 1/2 TO 1/4 MILE VSBYS FURTHER WEST. WILL
CONTINUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
FORMATION OF FOG THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...PLEASANT
WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY WITH HIGHER LEVELS OF MOISTURE RETURNING
TO THE REGION AS EASTERLY WINDS INCREASE. ON SUNDAY...AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM NORTHERN MEXICO AND WILL
INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SYSTEM TAPS
INTO THE HIGHER LEVELS OF MOISTURE. DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALSO HELP
TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MARINE...EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. LATEST FORECAST LOOKS TO KEEP THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FURTHER EAST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF...AND WILL LIMIT THE TIME OF
STRONGEST EASTERLY WINDS. THUS LESSENING THE THREAT FOR COASTAL
FLOODING. HOWEVER...INCREASING SWELLS AND HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
WILL RESULT IN MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY...INCREASED WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE
ISSUANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LATER THIS WEEKEND.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW UPPER TROUGH TO BE EAST OF
AREA WITH JET DYNAMICS WELL OUT OF AREA. THINK MOS POPS KEYING ON
MEAN RH FIELDS AOA 80 PERCENT RATHER THAN FORCING...SO WILL GO NO
MORE THAN LOW CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTHEAST INLAND AREAS (LOWER
SOUTH AND WEST)...AND 40 POPS GULFMEX WHERE SOME REMAINING
CONVECTION COULD STILL BE AROUND IN THE EVENING. EXPECT RAIN TO BE
OVER INLAND AREAS NO LATER THAN 12Z MONDAY AND GULFMEX NO LATER THAN
18Z MONDAY AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SEEP IN. WINDS BECOME
MORE TO THE NORTH MONDAY THEN NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT...SO CONCERN
FOR RIP CURRENTS AND COASTAL FLOODING SHOULD CEASE BY MONDAY
(PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS ALSO FALL). UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
IN AND DRIER AIR COMES DOWN...SO SHOULD BE A QUIET WEEK NEXT WEEK.
UPPER RIDGE KEEPS ITS INFLUENCE OVER SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY
(ALTHOUGH IT MOVES EAST BY THEN) SO THAT THE INFLUENCES OF THE UPPER
TROUGH WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST STAY OUT OF THE AREA. WILL
ONLY SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS BY FRIDAY. OVERALL...STAYED ON THE
LOW SIDE OR BELOW GUIDANCE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT OUT
WEST FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WHICH SEEM A BIT TOO COOL AT TIMES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 81 66 80 64 79 / 10 20 60 20 10
VICTORIA 81 62 77 60 78 / 10 10 60 30 20
LAREDO 86 64 81 63 82 / 0 10 30 10 10
ALICE 84 64 80 62 81 / 10 20 50 20 10
ROCKPORT 80 67 79 67 79 / 10 20 60 30 20
COTULLA 82 61 77 59 79 / 0 10 40 10 10
KINGSVILLE 82 66 80 63 80 / 10 30 50 20 10
NAVY CORPUS 79 68 79 68 78 / 10 20 60 30 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...LIVE OAK...
REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
RG/82...SHORT TERM/AVIATION
GW/86...LONG TERM
000
FXUS64 KLUB 071141
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
541 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.AVIATION...
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING LATE TONIGHT BUT VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE
EASTWARD TODAY WITH AN APPROACHING CLOSED LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA.
MODELS DO AGREE TO DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM INTO AN OPEN WAVE BY SUNDAY
MORNING AS IT ENTERS FAR WEST TEXAS. THICKER HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY
BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING. THE
UNSEASONABLE WARMTH WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 15
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. HOWEVER...TEMPS TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY WITH LESS OF A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS AND
DECREASING THICKNESSES. JDV
LONG TERM...
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY...GENERALLY
UNDERGOING SLOW WEAKENING. MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY THICKEN ENOUGH
SOUTHEAST ZONES EARLY SUNDAY WITH MODEST UPWARDS MOTION TO
GENERATE LIGHT SHOWERS ALOFT...WITH DIFFICULTY OVERCOMING A DEEP
SUB-CLOUD DRY LAYER...THOUGH WE VERY WELL MAY HAVE A LOW CLOUD
DECK AS WELL. NOT IMPOSSIBLE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES TO REACH THE
GROUND BUT LEAVING MENTION OUT FOR NOW. SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN MILD
THOUGH A BIT MORE THICKNESS AND MOISTURE RELATED COOLING COMPARED
TO SATURDAY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SCOOTING BY QUICKLY TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY REMAINS SLIGHTLY MORE VIGOROUS WITH THE GFS DEPICTION
THOUGH DIFFERENCES LESS SIGNIFICANT THAN 24 HOURS AGO. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY.
ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN IN LOWER LEVELS FOR AT LEAST A LOW
MENTION OF SHOWERS BY LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS
WITH LOW SHOWER CHANCES LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING SOUTHWEST ZONES THOUGH BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT STILL
SUGGEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE MINOR...LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE.
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL MID-WEEK WITH WARMING AND
DRYING BEFORE MORE ENERGY PERHAPS MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATER
IN THE WEEK. CHANGING MODELS DO NOT GIVE MUCH TO GRAB ONTO...BUT
WILL RETAIN A LOW MENTION OF SHOWERS WITH A BIT OF COOLING HEADING
IN TO NEXT WEEKEND. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 78 42 75 42 65 / 0 0 10 10 20
TULIA 81 45 75 44 70 / 0 0 10 10 20
PLAINVIEW 80 46 74 46 73 / 0 0 10 10 20
LEVELLAND 80 46 76 46 74 / 0 0 10 10 10
LUBBOCK 80 49 75 49 75 / 0 0 10 10 10
DENVER CITY 79 45 76 47 75 / 0 0 10 10 10
BROWNFIELD 80 46 76 47 75 / 0 0 10 10 10
CHILDRESS 83 51 75 49 76 / 0 0 10 10 20
SPUR 81 51 75 49 77 / 0 0 10 10 10
ASPERMONT 80 53 74 52 77 / 0 0 10 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01
000
FXUS64 KMAF 071140
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
540 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
&&
.AVIATION...
HIGH CLOUDS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE WEST BUT MOST TAF SITES
CURRENTLY CLEAR. STRATUS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS ALSO BEGINNING TO
THREATEN TO MOVE INTO EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN... BUT NOT EXPECTING
IT WILL MAKE IT TO MAF GIVEN 10 DEGREE TEMP/DEWPT SPREAD.
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY WIND.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW VISIBLE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING
CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA. THIS
LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CHIHUAHUA MEXICO LATE
TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE BIG
BEND REGION AND LOWER TRANS PECOS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING SINCE
THIS IS WHERE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT LIFT/MOISTURE WILL RESIDE.
HOWEVER...MID TO HIGH CLOUD WILL INCREASE ACROSS MOST OF WEST
TEXAS WITH THIS FEATURE. ALSO...A DECENT LLJ IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING WITH THIS LOW. AS A RESULT...MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL INCREASE OVER THE CWA. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE
FOR THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50S. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AND LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS WILL BE PRESENT FROM
THE LOWER TRANS PECOS THROUGH THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN SUNDAY
MORNING. THEREFORE...EXPECT SOME LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP NEAR THESE
AREAS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOWEST CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN NEAR CROCKET COUNTY. PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH THE
INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...BUT
VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3 MILES FOR THE MOST PART DUE TO
SOME ENHANCED SURFACE FLOW.
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY...BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AS HEIGHT FALLS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW. BY
MONDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL MAKE ITS WAY OVER THE TEXAS
GULF COAST...WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TRAVERSES SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND THE EXTREME NORTHERN
PLAINS. MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY SHOULD WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD AND 850 HPA TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
TEENS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO MOVE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE...PROGRESSING EAST SOUTHEASTWARD. AS THIS
OCCURS...A COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE NWP MODELS AGREE THAT POST FRONTAL
STRATUS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW
REMAINING ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...WE
WENT AHEAD AND ADDED DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MID TO
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OVERHEAD. IF THE STRATUS LINGERS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY TUESDAY...WHICH IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH THESE TYPES OF
SCENARIOS...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S
ALONG AND EAST OF THE PECOS RIVER. WE WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT
MEX GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES GIVEN THE PREVIOUS.
ON WEDNESDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA AS THE NEXT
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE WEST COAST. BY THURSDAY THIS
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES
EAST...A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL FORM OVER EASTERN COLORADO.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH A SOUTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW AND NO RAIN EXPECTED. BY FRIDAY THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
ROCKIES AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A LITTLE COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHGX 071134
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
534 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.AVIATION...
AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH VSBYS
HAVE BEEN MORE VARIABLE THAN LAST NIGHT. EXPECT FOG TO CLEAR OUT
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST MID
AFTERNOON. WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY AM EXPECTING
LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP WITH MVFR CIGS BY SATURDAY EVENING OR EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE KEPT PREVAILING CIGS MVFR OVERNIGHT BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE IFR CIGS FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE ON
SUNDAY...AND HAVE ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR IAH TO ADVERTISE THIS
POTENTIAL. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND STRONGER SFC WINDS THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. 38
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...
PATCHY FOG NOT QUITE AS WIDESPREAD AS FORECAST BUT WILL WAIT A BIT
TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. AM LEANING TOWARD CANCELING THE ADVISORY. PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS MOISTURE LEVELS SLOWLY INCREASE. ON
SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE
TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.6 INCHES. THE AREA
WILL ALSO LIE IN A STRONG RIGHT REAR QUAD. MODEL QPF IS NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE BUT FEEL THE DYNAMICS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
GENERATE RAINFALL SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE
TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH THE
UPPER FLOW BECOMING STRONGLY CONVERGENT. SKIES WILL CLEAR MONDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN
OVER TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEK FINALLY PUSHING EAST BY THE END OF
THE WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO TEXAS FROM THE WEST.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE NEXT WEEKEND AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION NEXT SUNDAY. 43
MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP BETWEEN AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. FORECAST MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
THEIR HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE KEEPING IT A BIT WEAKER AND FARTHER
EAST THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. WITH A SHORTER DURATION OF ENHANCED
WINDS FEEL THAT THE COASTAL FLOOD THREAT IS SLIGHTLY LESS THAN IN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS...AND NO COASTAL FLOOD WATCH OR WARNING WILL BE
ISSUED FOR THIS PACKAGE. SOME AREAS PARTICULARLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO
TIDAL FLOODING MAY BE BRIEFLY IMPACTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS TIDES
WILL RUN AOA 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST.
WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY AFTERNOON BUT WOULD EXPECT TO SEE ADVISORIES BEGIN THIS
EVENING OR TONIGHT PARTICULARLY FOR THE OUTER ZONES. 38
AVIATION...
FOG OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN AGAIN DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH INCREASING MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE. 38
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 79 60 79 60 81 / 10 10 30 20 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 78 61 77 62 77 / 10 10 50 30 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 75 70 76 68 76 / 10 20 50 40 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BRAZOS...BURLESON...GRIMES...MADISON...WALLER...
WASHINGTON.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...38
000
FXUS64 KFWD 071124 AAA
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
524 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.AVIATION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK EXTENDING FROM
AUSTIN TO WACO TO JUST SOUTHEAST OF DFW METROPLEX AT 500 AM. THE
STRATUS WAS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTHWARD AND IT NOW APPEARS THAT
IFR CEILINGS WILL AFFECT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES FOR SEVERAL HOURS
THIS MORNING. WILL FORECAST CEILINGS AROUND 500 FEET UNTIL ABOUT
10 AM CDT WHEN MIXING SHOULD HELP DISSIPATE AND SCATTER OUT THE
STRATUS.
AFTER CLOUDS DISSIPATE THIS MORNING...VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS. EXPECT STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TO
OCCUR AGAIN TONIGHT...AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUES TO BRING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. DEEPER MOISTURE ON
SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MORE PERSISTENT IFR CLOUD
COVER...WITH CEILINGS LIKELY NOT IMPROVING UNTIL LATE SUNDAY
MORNING OR EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
09
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOP NORTHWARD...WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED
TO REACH AS FAR NORTH AS A PARIS TO DENTON TO COMANCHE LINE BY MID
MORNING. CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF BY NOON...AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
MILD TEMPS WILL PREVAIL AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD
TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING ADDITIONAL GULF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE RETURN
WILL BE HAMPERED BY TROPICAL STORM IDA AND A NON TROPICAL SURFACE
LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...KEEPING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE
LOW LEVELS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...AND THUS DEEPER TROPICAL
MOISTURE BOTTLED UP.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD ROUND OF LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. STRONG
LARGE SCALE FORCING WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY AND DEGREE OF LIFT WILL COMPENSATE FOR THE
LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN AND PERHAPS
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES...BUT WILL KEEP POPS AT 30 PERCENT OR LESS BASED ON THE
LIMITED MOISTURE. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...THESE LOW CHANCES OF RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST. LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO MONDAY...WITH PERHAPS A LIGHT OR
VERY ISOLATED SHOWER...BUT HAVE KEPT POPS OUT OF THE WORDED
FORECAST MONDAY DUE TO AN ABSENCE OF LIFTING MECHANISMS.
IDA IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO A LARGE NON-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY
MID WEEK...WITH OUR WINDS IN NORTH TEXAS GRADUALLY BECOMING
NORTHERLY IN RESPONSE TO CHANGING PRESSURE PATTERN. HARD TO CALL
IT A COLD FRONT SINCE THE WIND SHIFT WILL BE GRADUAL...BUT SOME
COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND VERY NICE WEATHER.
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE NEXT
WEEKEND...SO EXPECT INCREASING MOISTURE/CLOUDS/WINDS BY FRIDAY
WITH SOME LOW POPS SATURDAY.
TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 79 58 74 59 79 / 0 5 20 20 10
WACO, TX 80 58 75 60 77 / 0 5 30 30 10
PARIS, TX 77 52 72 56 75 / 0 5 20 20 10
DENTON, TX 79 55 74 57 79 / 0 5 20 20 10
MCKINNEY, TX 78 53 73 57 76 / 0 5 20 20 10
DALLAS, TX 80 58 75 60 79 / 0 5 20 20 10
TERRELL, TX 78 57 74 59 76 / 0 5 20 30 10
CORSICANA, TX 78 58 73 59 78 / 0 5 30 30 10
TEMPLE, TX 79 59 74 59 78 / 0 5 30 30 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KSJT 071116 AAA
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
516 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE DEVELOPING/MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA
THIS MORNING. CIGS OF 1100 FEET ARE AT JUNCTION AT THIS TIME WITH
CEILINGS AS LOW AS 500 FEET AT KERRVILLE AND 100 FEET AT EDWARDS
COUNTY AIRPORT. VISIBILITY VALUES HAVE ALSO BEEN REDUCED TO 3 TO 5
MILES AT THESE LOCATIONS...SO WILL INCLUDE LOWERED VISIBILITIES IN
TEMPO GROUPS THIS MORNING. SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS MOISTURE TO BE VERY
SHALLOW...SO EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG TO MIX OUT BY 15Z OR 16Z.
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY 18Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY
AND INCLUDE GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AGAIN LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE AREA TONIGHT...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS WILL BRING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG INTO THE AREA AGAIN OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY
EARLIER THAN 09Z. MAY INCLUDE A PREVAILING GROUP OF LOW CLOUDS AT
KJCT...KSOA...KBBD BEFORE 12Z FOR THESE CLOUDS. 20
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
SHORT TERM...
FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS MOVING EAST THIS MORNING AS A CLOSED LOW
CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA MOVES EAST TOWARDS WEST TEXAS.
THIS CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
CURRENTLY...VERY SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS RESULTING IN
DEVELOPING FOG/STRATUS OVER THE HILL COUNTRY. THESE CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHWARD INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
THIS MORNING. BY MID TO LATE MORNING...DUE TO THE SHALLOW DEPTH OF
THE MOISTURE...THE LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE QUICKLY MIXING
OUT OF THE AREA. SO...WILL KEEP INCREASED SKYCOVER VALUES AND PATCHY
FOG IN THROUGH 15Z OR SO FOR AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
OZONA TO SAN ANGELO TO SAN SABA. WITH LEE TROUGHING MAINTAINING
ITSELF EAST OF THE ROCKY MTNS...SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
WINDS SOUTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE WARM TODAY UNDER MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE AREA TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG...GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. WE WILL LIKELY SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS THE LOW WILL BRING A MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD DECK WITH IT AS IT APPROACHES. WILL NOT BRING ANY PRECIP INTO
THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS VERY NEAR THE CENTER...AND SINCE
WE WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH LIMITED MOISTURE DEPTH HERE...EXPECT
ANY PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY TO WAIT UNTIL DAYLIGHT HOURS OF SUNDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WARM LOWS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
CLOUDCOVER HELPING TO KEEP RADIATIONAL COOLING AT BAY.
20
LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORTWAVE TROF WILL CONTINUE EAST ACROSS TEXAS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A SLGT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
MAINLY THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY AND HEARTLAND. ALSO...SOME WEAK
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...SO ADDED ISOLD
TSTMS TO THE WX GRIDS. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE EAST OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY...SO A DRY FORECAST. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL BE 70 TO 75.
WILL KEEP THE SLGT CHC POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA
ALONG WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF MAY APPROACH WEST CENTRAL TEXAS NEXT WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THE THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SHOWING UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS TROF. THE EC IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF...HOWEVER MOST OF THE DYNAMICS AND QPF
AMOUNTS ARE LOCATED EAST OF THE CWFA. WILL GO WITH A DRY NEXT
WEEKEND.
21
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 80 54 75 55 74 / 0 10 10 10 10
SAN ANGELO 79 54 73 54 75 / 0 10 10 10 10
JUNCTION 78 55 72 53 74 / 0 10 20 20 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KAMA 071114 AAA
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
514 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.AVIATION...
GOOD FLYING WX IS EXPECTED TDA. CI WILL BE ONLY CLOUDS OF NOTE. SFC
WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KT TDA...WITH SFC WINDS AT NRN TAF
SITES BRIEFLY BECOMING NWLY AS SFC TROF MOVES SLOWLY SWD. SLY SFC
WINDS RESUME AT ALL TAF SITES BY LATE AFTN. LOW-LEVEL JET SETS UP
TNGT...PRODUCING AREAS OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AFTER 06Z SUN. VFR
FCST CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.
COCKRELL
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...
APPEARS ANOTHER WARM DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE PANHANDLES. COULD SEE A
FEW MORE RECORD HIGHS EITHER TIED OR SET TODAY...BUT THIS IS MAINLY
DUE TO THE RELATIVELY LOW RECORDS IN PLACE AT DALHART AND BORGER. IN
FACT...HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGHS IN JEOPARDY OF FALLING TODAY.
AMARILLO...86 SET IN 1934.
DALHART...80 SET IN 2005.
BORGER...83 SET IN 2005.
MAV AND MET ARE NOT IN LINE AS THE MAV IS RUNNING 3 TO 5 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE MET. EVEN SO...THE WARMER MET SOLUTION ONLY SHOWS 83 FOR
AMARILLO. SO DECIDED TO GO WITH THE MET SOLUTION FOR A FEW REASONS.
MORNING LOWS SHOULD START OFF IN THE MID 40S AND EVEN THOUGH WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE DOWN TODAY...THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST COMPONENT WILL
SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION. ALSO...MODEL PROGGED 850MB
TEMPS ARE ONLY DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO FROM YESTERDAY AND 1000-500MB
THICKNESSES SHOULD BE ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY AS WELL. GIVEN
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND MIXING TAKING PLACE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO
REACH INTO THE 80S. ONLY CAVEAT IS FOR THE NORTHERN CWA WHERE A
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING A MORE NORTHERLY WIND
COMPONENT BY THE AFTERNOON KEEPING HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES LOWER.
KEPT THE DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT THE NEXT FRONT IS
APPROACHING FOR MONDAY. INCREASING DEW POINTS LEADING UP TO THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL HELP PROVIDE LL MOISTURE...WHILE A UPPER SHORT
WAVE WILL HELP PROVIDE SUPPORT ALOFT. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING
FOR MONDAY AND INTRODUCED THUNDER FOR THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A BRIEF WINDOW OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY SO
THINKING A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. TRENDED
WITH GUIDANCE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
RETURNING. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PAC NW
BY MID WEEK...AND HEAD TOWARD THE PANHANDLES BY THURSDAY. SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE THE EURO IS SHOWING A DEEPER AND
SLOWER MOVING TROUGH THAN THE GFS. THE CONCERNING PART THOUGH...IS
THAT THE EURO THEN EJECTS THE LOW QUITE RAPIDLY AND ENDS UP WITH A
MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION BY THE END OF SUNDAY. THIS SEEMS A BIT
UNLIKELY SO DECIDED TO TREND WITH THE GFS FOR NOW. AS A RESULT...THE
GFS BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PANHANDLES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THOUGHT THE MEX WAS RUNNING A BIT
WARM IN THE EXTENDED FOR POST FRONTAL AIRMASS IN MID NOVEMBER...SO
LOWERED TEMPS BY 3 OR 4 DEGREES. ALSO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
PLACE FOR THE EXTENDED MAINLY DURING THE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TIME
PERIOD.
JJB
FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AIR IN PLACE TODAY SHOULD CAUSE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL
BELOW 20 PERCENT. HOWEVER...EXPECTING WIND SPEEDS TO REMAIN BELOW 15
MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE TO ISSUE A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT TODAY. COOLER AIR AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL THEN FILTER
INTO THE PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH
THE PANHANDLES MONDAY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 83 47 74 44 60 / 0 0 0 5 20
BEAVER OK 79 45 73 44 58 / 0 0 0 5 20
BOISE CITY OK 78 42 71 39 56 / 0 0 0 5 20
BORGER TX 84 51 75 47 60 / 0 0 0 5 20
BOYS RANCH TX 84 46 78 45 63 / 0 0 0 5 20
CANYON TX 83 45 76 43 63 / 0 0 0 5 20
CLARENDON TX 81 49 74 48 72 / 0 0 0 5 20
DALHART TX 80 41 74 41 59 / 0 0 0 5 20
GUYMON OK 80 45 73 43 60 / 0 0 0 5 20
HEREFORD TX 82 44 76 44 64 / 0 0 0 5 20
LIPSCOMB TX 84 48 73 46 63 / 0 0 0 5 20
PAMPA TX 83 50 74 49 65 / 0 0 0 5 20
SHAMROCK TX 81 50 75 51 69 / 0 0 0 5 20
WELLINGTON TX 81 51 75 51 68 / 0 0 0 5 20
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
03/14
000
FXUS64 KCRP 071018
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
418 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SHORT TERM...AREAS OF DENSE FOG FORMING AGAIN EARLY THIS
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. A FEW OTHER SITES
HAVE ALSO FALLEN TO 1/2 TO 1/4 MILE VSBYS FURTHER WEST. WILL
CONTINUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
FORMATION OF FOG THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...PLEASANT
WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY WITH HIGHER LEVELS OF MOISTURE RETURNING
TO THE REGION AS EASTERLY WINDS INCREASE. ON SUNDAY...AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM NORTHERN MEXICO AND WILL
INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SYSTEM TAPS
INTO THE HIGHER LEVELS OF MOISTURE. DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALSO HELP
TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. LATEST FORECAST LOOKS TO KEEP THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FURTHER EAST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF...AND WILL LIMIT THE TIME OF
STRONGEST EASTERLY WINDS. THUS LESSENING THE THREAT FOR COASTAL
FLOODING. HOWEVER...INCREASING SWELLS AND HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
WILL RESULT IN MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY...INCREASED WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE
ISSUANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LATER THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW UPPER TROUGH TO BE EAST OF
AREA WITH JET DYNAMICS WELL OUT OF AREA. THINK MOS POPS KEYING ON
MEAN RH FIELDS AOA 80 PERCENT RATHER THAN FORCING...SO WILL GO NO
MORE THAN LOW CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTHEAST INLAND AREAS (LOWER
SOUTH AND WEST)...AND 40 POPS GULFMEX WHERE SOME REMAINING
CONVECTION COULD STILL BE AROUND IN THE EVENING. EXPECT RAIN TO BE
OVER INLAND AREAS NO LATER THAN 12Z MONDAY AND GULFMEX NO LATER THAN
18Z MONDAY AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SEEP IN. WINDS BECOME
MORE TO THE NORTH MONDAY THEN NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT...SO CONCERN
FOR RIP CURRENTS AND COASTAL FLOODING SHOULD CEASE BY MONDAY
(PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS ALSO FALL). UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
IN AND DRIER AIR COMES DOWN...SO SHOULD BE A QUIET WEEK NEXT WEEK.
UPPER RIDGE KEEPS ITS INFLUENCE OVER SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY
(ALTHOUGH IT MOVES EAST BY THEN) SO THAT THE INFLUENCES OF THE UPPER
TROUGH WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST STAY OUT OF THE AREA. WILL
ONLY SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS BY FRIDAY. OVERALL...STAYED ON THE
LOW SIDE OR BELOW GUIDANCE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT OUT
WEST FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WHICH SEEM A BIT TOO COOL AT TIMES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 81 66 80 64 79 / 10 20 60 20 10
VICTORIA 81 62 77 60 78 / 10 10 60 30 20
LAREDO 86 64 81 63 82 / 0 10 30 10 10
ALICE 84 64 80 62 81 / 10 20 50 20 10
ROCKPORT 80 67 79 67 79 / 10 20 60 30 20
COTULLA 82 61 77 59 79 / 0 10 40 10 10
KINGSVILLE 82 66 80 63 80 / 10 30 50 20 10
NAVY CORPUS 79 68 79 68 78 / 10 20 60 30 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...LIVE OAK...
REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
RG/82...SHORT TERM
GW/86...LONG TERM
000
FXUS64 KSJT 071012
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
412 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SHORT TERM...
FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS MOVING EAST THIS MORNING AS A CLOSED LOW
CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA MOVES EAST TOWARDS WEST TEXAS.
THIS CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
CURRENTLY...VERY SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS RESULTING IN
DEVELOPING FOG/STRATUS OVER THE HILL COUNTRY. THESE CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHWARD INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
THIS MORNING. BY MID TO LATE MORNING...DUE TO THE SHALLOW DEPTH OF
THE MOISTURE...THE LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE QUICKLY MIXING
OUT OF THE AREA. SO...WILL KEEP INCREASED SKYCOVER VALUES AND PATCHY
FOG IN THROUGH 15Z OR SO FOR AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
OZONA TO SAN ANGELO TO SAN SABA. WITH LEE TROUGHING MAINTAINING
ITSELF EAST OF THE ROCKY MTNS...SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
WINDS SOUTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE WARM TODAY UNDER MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE AREA TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG...GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. WE WILL LIKELY SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS THE LOW WILL BRING A MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD DECK WITH IT AS IT APPROACHES. WILL NOT BRING ANY PRECIP INTO
THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS VERY NEAR THE CENTER...AND SINCE
WE WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH LIMITED MOISTURE DEPTH HERE...EXPECT
ANY PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY TO WAIT UNTIL DAYLIGHT HOURS OF SUNDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WARM LOWS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
CLOUDCOVER HELPING TO KEEP RADIATIONAL COOLING AT BAY.
20
.LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORTWAVE TROF WILL CONTINUE EAST ACROSS TEXAS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A SLGT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
MAINLY THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY AND HEARTLAND. ALSO...SOME WEAK
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...SO ADDED ISOLD
TSTMS TO THE WX GRIDS. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE EAST OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY...SO A DRY FORECAST. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL BE 70 TO 75.
WILL KEEP THE SLGT CHC POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA
ALONG WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF MAY APPROACH WEST CENTRAL TEXAS NEXT WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THE THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SHOWING UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS TROF. THE EC IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF...HOWEVER MOST OF THE DYNAMICS AND QPF
AMOUNTS ARE LOCATED EAST OF THE CWFA. WILL GO WITH A DRY NEXT
WEEKEND.
21
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 80 54 75 55 74 / 0 10 10 10 10
SAN ANGELO 79 54 73 54 75 / 0 10 10 10 10
JUNCTION 78 55 72 53 74 / 0 10 20 20 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLUB 071009
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
409 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE
EASTWARD TODAY WITH AN APPROACHING CLOSED LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA.
MODELS DO AGREE TO DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM INTO AN OPEN WAVE BY SUNDAY
MORNING AS IT ENTERS FAR WEST TEXAS. THICKER HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY
BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING. THE
UNSEASONABLE WARMTH WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 15
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. HOWEVER...TEMPS TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY WITH LESS OF A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS AND
DECREASING THICKNESSES. JDV
&&
.LONG TERM...
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY...GENERALLY
UNDERGOING SLOW WEAKENING. MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY THICKEN ENOUGH
SOUTHEAST ZONES EARLY SUNDAY WITH MODEST UPWARDS MOTION TO
GENERATE LIGHT SHOWERS ALOFT...WITH DIFFICULTY OVERCOMING A DEEP
SUB-CLOUD DRY LAYER...THOUGH WE VERY WELL MAY HAVE A LOW CLOUD
DECK AS WELL. NOT IMPOSSIBLE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES TO REACH THE
GROUND BUT LEAVING MENTION OUT FOR NOW. SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN MILD
THOUGH A BIT MORE THICKNESS AND MOISTURE RELATED COOLING COMPARED
TO SATURDAY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SCOOTING BY QUICKLY TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY REMAINS SLIGHTLY MORE VIGOROUS WITH THE GFS DEPICTION
THOUGH DIFFERENCES LESS SIGNIFICANT THAN 24 HOURS AGO. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY.
ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN IN LOWER LEVELS FOR AT LEAST A LOW
MENTION OF SHOWERS BY LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS
WITH LOW SHOWER CHANCES LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING SOUTHWEST ZONES THOUGH BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT STILL
SUGGEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE MINOR...LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE.
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL MID-WEEK WITH WARMING AND
DRYING BEFORE MORE ENERGY PERHAPS MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATER
IN THE WEEK. CHANGING MODELS DO NOT GIVE MUCH TO GRAB ONTO...BUT
WILL RETAIN A LOW MENTION OF SHOWERS WITH A BIT OF COOLING HEADING
IN TO NEXT WEEKEND. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 78 42 75 42 65 / 0 0 10 10 20
TULIA 81 45 75 44 70 / 0 0 10 10 20
PLAINVIEW 80 46 74 46 73 / 0 0 10 10 20
LEVELLAND 80 46 76 46 74 / 0 0 10 10 10
LUBBOCK 80 49 75 49 76 / 0 0 10 10 10
DENVER CITY 79 45 76 47 75 / 0 0 10 10 10
BROWNFIELD 80 46 76 47 75 / 0 0 10 10 10
CHILDRESS 83 51 75 49 76 / 0 0 10 10 20
SPUR 81 51 75 49 77 / 0 0 10 10 10
ASPERMONT 80 53 74 52 77 / 0 0 10 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01/05
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 070958
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
258 AM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MOVED AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL PACIFIC LOW CONTINUED TO PRESS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
SYSTEM WILL KEEP HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION TODAY AS IT TRACKS
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND PASSES TO OUR SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. LESS
SUNSHINE TODAY WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT
STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS MINIMAL. MONDAY NIGHT
THE NEXT BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THIS FEATURE SHOULD COOL TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO
NORMAL OR BELOW AND POSSIBLY ALLOW FOR SOME PRECIPITATION OVER THE
FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THICKER HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAJA UPPER-LOW ARE NOW
SPREADING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA...WITH MOST OF THE
AREA EXPECTED TO BE UNDER BKN/OVC HIGH CIRRUS BY MID-MORNING. THIS
COMPACT CUT-OFF LOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND CONTINUE A
SLOW EASTERLY TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT
BEFORE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH EARLY SUNDAY.
MOISTURE IS THE LIMITING FACTOR WITH THIS SYSTEM AS OVER OUR AREA
IT WILL ONLY HAVE THE UPPER AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
TO OUR SOUTH IT WILL HAVE BETTER DYNAMICS AND SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN WHICH TO PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION OVER
MEXICO. BUT FOR US IT APPEARS THAT THICKENING MID CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF VIRGA ARE THE BEST CALL. PARTS OF SOUTHERN HUDSPETH COULD
SEE A LIGHT SPRINKLE...BUT MEASURABLE PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED AS THIS
SYSTEM PASSES. THE INCREASED CLOUDS AND DECREASED HIGHS
/THICKNESSES WILL KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF THE WEEKEND`S MAX TEMPS
BUT THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP MORNING MIN TEMPS UP A BIT.
SUNDAY THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT TO THE EAST AS A SHALLOW TROUGH PASSES
WELL TO THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ZONAL FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. WE`LL SEE INCREASINGLY
CLEARING SKIES WITH ONLY PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPS WILL WARM
AGAIN AND THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FEATURE TO MOVE IN AND AFFECT THE CWFA WILL
BE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY WHICH WILL COOL TEMPERATURES
FOR TUESDAY. EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY THROUGH PASSES AND OVER WEST
SLOPES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE FROPA. MODELS ARE
INDECISIVE ON WHETHER OR NOT TO PULL IN ENOUGH MOISTURE ALONG THE
FRONT TO PRODUCE PCPN IN THE EASTERN ZONES TUESDAY. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND TO INCREASE CLOUDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES FOR
TUESDAY...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON POPS FOR ALL BUT THE SACRAMENTO MTNS
ZONE.
SLIGHT WARMING FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE AIR MASS
MODIFIES AND UPPER LEVELS REMAIN ZONAL. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS
ANOTHER WEST COAST TROUGH/LOW TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATE
NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST MID-RANGE MODEL RUNS FROM LAST NIGHT HAVE
AMPLIFIED THE PATTER AND ARE ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO CUT FURTHER
SOUTH. AT THIS POINT HAVE ONLY ADDED SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND KEPT THE
THU/FRI FORECAST PERIODS DRY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FURTHER RUNS
TO SEE IT THE CURRENT TREND TOWARDS A "WETTER" SOLUTION CONTINUE.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID 07/12Z-08/12Z...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. HIGH
CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW TRACKING SOUTH OF
THE AREA OFF BAJA WILL COVER MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY...WITH BKN-
OVC250 LIKELY PERIODICALLY ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LOW CROSSING THE CENTRAL BAJA WILL TRACK EAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND PASS TO OUR SOUTH. INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THE ONLY EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE HIGH
CLOUD COVER WILL BE RATHER THICK TODAY...ENOUGH TO KNOCK TEMPERATURES
BACK 3-4 DEGREES. A BACKDOOR FRONT PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE
EAST MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY WITH ENHANCED EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK IS CONTINUED DRY...TEMPS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL...AND
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 76 50 77 49 78 / 0 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA TX 74 47 74 45 75 / 10 10 10 0 0
LAS CRUCES 75 47 76 46 77 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 72 44 72 43 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 60 29 61 29 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 75 43 76 43 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 73 40 72 40 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEMING 76 46 76 44 77 / 0 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 76 46 77 44 78 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
14/BIRD
000
FXUS64 KFWD 070957
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
357 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOP NORTHWARD...WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED
TO REACH AS FAR NORTH AS A PARIS TO DENTON TO COMANCHE LINE BY MID
MORNING. CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF BY NOON...AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
MILD TEMPS WILL PREVAIL AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD
TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING ADDITIONAL GULF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE RETURN
WILL BE HAMPERED BY TROPICAL STORM IDA AND A NON TROPICAL SURFACE
LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...KEEPING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE
LOW LEVELS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...AND THUS DEEPER TROPICAL
MOISTURE BOTTLED UP.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD ROUND OF LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. STRONG
LARGE SCALE FORCING WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY AND DEGREE OF LIFT WILL COMPENSATE FOR THE
LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN AND PERHAPS
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES...BUT WILL KEEP POPS AT 30 PERCENT OR LESS BASED ON THE
LIMITED MOISTURE. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...THESE LOW CHANCES OF RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST. LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO MONDAY...WITH PERHAPS A LIGHT OR
VERY ISOLATED SHOWER...BUT HAVE KEPT POPS OUT OF THE WORDED
FORECAST MONDAY DUE TO AN ABSENCE OF LIFTING MECHANISMS.
IDA IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO A LARGE NON-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY
MID WEEK...WITH OUR WINDS IN NORTH TEXAS GRADUALLY BECOMING
NORTHERLY IN RESPONSE TO CHANGING PRESSURE PATTERN. HARD TO CALL
IT A COLD FRONT SINCE THE WIND SHIFT WILL BE GRADUAL...BUT SOME
COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND VERY NICE WEATHER.
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE NEXT
WEEKEND...SO EXPECT INCREASING MOISTURE/CLOUDS/WINDS BY FRIDAY
WITH SOME LOW POPS SATURDAY.
TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 79 58 74 59 79 / 0 5 20 20 10
WACO, TX 80 58 75 60 77 / 0 5 30 30 10
PARIS, TX 77 52 72 56 75 / 0 5 20 20 10
DENTON, TX 79 55 74 57 79 / 0 5 20 20 10
MCKINNEY, TX 78 53 73 57 76 / 0 5 20 20 10
DALLAS, TX 80 58 75 60 79 / 0 5 20 20 10
TERRELL, TX 78 57 74 59 76 / 0 5 20 30 10
CORSICANA, TX 78 58 73 59 78 / 0 5 30 30 10
TEMPLE, TX 79 59 74 59 78 / 0 5 30 30 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KAMA 070953
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
353 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
APPEARS ANOTHER WARM DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE PANHANDLES. COULD SEE A
FEW MORE RECORD HIGHS EITHER TIED OR SET TODAY...BUT THIS IS MAINLY
DUE TO THE RELATIVELY LOW RECORDS IN PLACE AT DALHART AND BORGER. IN
FACT...HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGHS IN JEOPARDY OF FALLING TODAY.
AMARILLO...86 SET IN 1934.
DALHART...80 SET IN 2005.
BORGER...83 SET IN 2005.
MAV AND MET ARE NOT IN LINE AS THE MAV IS RUNNING 3 TO 5 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE MET. EVEN SO...THE WARMER MET SOLUTION ONLY SHOWS 83 FOR
AMARILLO. SO DECIDED TO GO WITH THE MET SOLUTION FOR A FEW REASONS.
MORNING LOWS SHOULD START OFF IN THE MID 40S AND EVEN THOUGH WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE DOWN TODAY...THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST COMPONENT WILL
SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION. ALSO...MODEL PROGGED 850MB
TEMPS ARE ONLY DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO FROM YESTERDAY AND 1000-500MB
THICKNESSES SHOULD BE ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY AS WELL. GIVEN
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND MIXING TAKING PLACE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO
REACH INTO THE 80S. ONLY CAVEAT IS FOR THE NORTHERN CWA WHERE A
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING A MORE NORTHERLY WIND
COMPONENT BY THE AFTERNOON KEEPING HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES LOWER.
KEPT THE DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT THE NEXT FRONT IS
APPROACHING FOR MONDAY. INCREASING DEW POINTS LEADING UP TO THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL HELP PROVIDE LL MOISTURE...WHILE A UPPER SHORT
WAVE WILL HELP PROVIDE SUPPORT ALOFT. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING
FOR MONDAY AND INTRODUCED THUNDER FOR THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A BRIEF WINDOW OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY SO
THINKING A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. TRENDED
WITH GUIDANCE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
RETURNING. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PAC NW
BY MID WEEK...AND HEAD TOWARD THE PANHANDLES BY THURSDAY. SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE THE EURO IS SHOWING A DEEPER AND
SLOWER MOVING TROUGH THAN THE GFS. THE CONCERNING PART THOUGH...IS
THAT THE EURO THEN EJECTS THE LOW QUITE RAPIDLY AND ENDS UP WITH A
MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION BY THE END OF SUNDAY. THIS SEEMS A BIT
UNLIKELY SO DECIDED TO TREND WITH THE GFS FOR NOW. AS A RESULT...THE
GFS BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PANHANDLES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THOUGHT THE MEX WAS RUNNING A BIT
WARM IN THE EXTENDED FOR POST FRONTAL AIRMASS IN MID NOVEMBER...SO
LOWERED TEMPS BY 3 OR 4 DEGREES. ALSO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
PLACE FOR THE EXTENDED MAINLY DURING THE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TIME
PERIOD.
JJB
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AIR IN PLACE TODAY SHOULD CAUSE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL
BELOW 20 PERCENT. HOWEVER...EXPECTING WIND SPEEDS TO REMAIN BELOW 15
MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE TO ISSUE A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT TODAY. COOLER AIR AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL THEN FILTER
INTO THE PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH
THE PANHANDLES MONDAY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 83 47 74 44 60 / 0 0 0 5 20
BEAVER OK 79 45 73 44 58 / 0 0 0 5 20
BOISE CITY OK 78 42 71 39 56 / 0 0 0 5 20
BORGER TX 84 51 75 47 60 / 0 0 0 5 20
BOYS RANCH TX 84 46 78 45 63 / 0 0 0 5 20
CANYON TX 83 45 76 43 63 / 0 0 0 5 20
CLARENDON TX 81 49 74 48 72 / 0 0 0 5 20
DALHART TX 80 41 74 41 59 / 0 0 0 5 20
GUYMON OK 80 45 73 43 60 / 0 0 0 5 20
HEREFORD TX 82 44 76 44 64 / 0 0 0 5 20
LIPSCOMB TX 84 48 73 46 63 / 0 0 0 5 20
PAMPA TX 83 50 74 49 65 / 0 0 0 5 20
SHAMROCK TX 81 50 75 51 69 / 0 0 0 5 20
WELLINGTON TX 81 51 75 51 68 / 0 0 0 5 20
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
03/14
000
FXUS64 KHGX 070929
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
329 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
PATCHY FOG NOT QUITE AS WIDESPREAD AS FORECAST BUT WILL WAIT A BIT
TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. AM LEANING TOWARD CANCELING THE ADVISORY. PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS MOISTURE LEVELS SLOWLY INCREASE. ON
SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE
TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.6 INCHES. THE AREA
WILL ALSO LIE IN A STRONG RIGHT REAR QUAD. MODEL QPF IS NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE BUT FEEL THE DYNAMICS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
GENERATE RAINFALL SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE
TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH THE
UPPER FLOW BECOMING STRONGLY CONVERGENT. SKIES WILL CLEAR MONDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN
OVER TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEK FINALLY PUSHING EAST BY THE END OF
THE WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO TEXAS FROM THE WEST.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE NEXT WEEKEND AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION NEXT SUNDAY. 43
&&
.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP BETWEEN AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. FORECAST MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
THEIR HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE KEEPING IT A BIT WEAKER AND FARTHER
EAST THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. WITH A SHORTER DURATION OF ENHANCED
WINDS FEEL THAT THE COASTAL FLOOD THREAT IS SLIGHTLY LESS THAN IN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS...AND NO COASTAL FLOOD WATCH OR WARNING WILL BE
ISSUED FOR THIS PACKAGE. SOME AREAS PARTICULARLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO
TIDAL FLOODING MAY BE BRIEFLY IMPACTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS TIDES
WILL RUN AOA 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST.
WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY AFTERNOON BUT WOULD EXPECT TO SEE ADVISORIES BEGIN THIS
EVENING OR TONIGHT PARTICULARLY FOR THE OUTER ZONES. 38
&&
.AVIATION...
FOG OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN AGAIN DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH INCREASING MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE. 38
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 79 60 79 60 81 / 10 10 30 20 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 78 61 77 62 77 / 10 10 50 30 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 75 70 76 68 76 / 10 20 50 40 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...
JACKSON...MATAGORDA...WHARTON.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMAF 070925
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
324 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW VISIBLE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING
CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA. THIS
LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CHIHUAHUA MEXICO LATE
TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE BIG
BEND REGION AND LOWER TRANS PECOS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING SINCE
THIS IS WHERE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT LIFT/MOISTURE WILL RESIDE.
HOWEVER...MID TO HIGH CLOUD WILL INCREASE ACROSS MOST OF WEST
TEXAS WITH THIS FEATURE. ALSO...A DECENT LLJ IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING WITH THIS LOW. AS A RESULT...MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL INCREASE OVER THE CWA. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE
FOR THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50S. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AND LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS WILL BE PRESENT FROM
THE LOWER TRANS PECOS THROUGH THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN SUNDAY
MORNING. THEREFORE...EXPECT SOME LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP NEAR THESE
AREAS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOWEST CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN NEAR CROCKET COUNTY. PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH THE
INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...BUT
VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3 MILES FOR THE MOST PART DUE TO
SOME ENHANCED SURFACE FLOW.
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY...BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AS HEIGHT FALLS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW. BY
MONDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL MAKE ITS WAY OVER THE TEXAS
GULF COAST...WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TRAVERSES SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND THE EXTREME NORTHERN
PLAINS. MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY SHOULD WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD AND 850 HPA TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
TEENS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO MOVE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE...PROGRESSING EAST SOUTHEASTWARD. AS THIS
OCCURS...A COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE NWP MODELS AGREE THAT POST FRONTAL
STRATUS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW
REMAINING ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...WE
WENT AHEAD AND ADDED DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MID TO
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OVERHEAD. IF THE STRATUS LINGERS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY TUESDAY...WHICH IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH THESE TYPES OF
SCENARIOS...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S
ALONG AND EAST OF THE PECOS RIVER. WE WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT
MEX GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES GIVEN THE PREVIOUS.
ON WEDNESDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA AS THE NEXT
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE WEST COAST. BY THURSDAY THIS
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES
EAST...A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL FORM OVER EASTERN COLORADO.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH A SOUTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW AND NO RAIN EXPECTED. BY FRIDAY THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
ROCKIES AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A LITTLE COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX 79 54 75 54 / 0 0 10 10
CARLSBAD NM 81 44 81 48 / 0 10 10 10
DRYDEN TX 75 56 72 57 / 0 20 20 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 83 56 78 53 / 0 10 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 74 51 76 49 / 0 10 10 0
HOBBS NM 77 47 76 46 / 0 0 10 10
MARFA TX 77 41 78 37 / 0 20 20 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 80 53 76 53 / 0 0 10 10
ODESSA TX 79 54 75 53 / 0 0 10 10
WINK TX 83 52 80 51 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
72/78
000
FXUS64 KBRO 070920
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
320 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY ... INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT HIGH AND MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DRIFTING NORTHWARD. THESE
CLOUDS ARE NOT PRODUCING ANY PRECIPITATION OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
HOWEVER...REPORTS INDICATE THAT LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
OBSERVED OVER SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS AND NORTHERN VERACRUZ IN MEXICO.
AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND DIVERGENCE IS EVIDENT FROM
THE GOES DERIVED UPPER LEVEL WINDS FROM UW CIMSS NESDIS OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. AN AREA OF CALM WINDS STARTED DEVELOPING
AROUND 1 AM ON A STRIP FROM NORTHERN BROOKS AND KENEDY COUNTY TO
THE US MEXICO BORDER AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES DETACHED FROM
THE SURFACE WITH THE ABSENCE OF SOLAR HEATING.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO EAST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. A BROAD AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
ANALYZED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
PRESENT OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EXTENDING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS.
MODEL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST REASONING ... AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO MOVES EASTWARD AND TROPICAL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THE RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR SATURDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY. THE
GFS...NAM...AND RUC AGREE THAT MOST OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS. THE ARW WRF GENERATES PRECIPITATION AS EARLY AS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE THE RIO GRANDE RIVER AND THEN MOVES A
BAND OF PRECIPITATION NORTHWARD DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THE
FORECAST REASONING LEANS MORE TOWARD THE FACT THAT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL START DURING SATURDAY EVENING AND THAT IT WILL
AFFECT MAINLY THE COASTAL COUNTIES. WITH UPPER LEVEL WINDS TURNING
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IT WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT FOR
ORGANIZED SHOWERS TO PENETRATE WESTWARD. A MORE NORTHERLY MOTION
OF THE SHOWERS IS EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS. THE GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS THINKING.
NO THUNDER IS INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE
MARITIME NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THIS CAN BE
EVALUATED BETTER AFTER THE MORNING SOUNDING.
IN THE VERY SHORT TERM EXPECT A NIGHT WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS
EXCEPT FOR AREAS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OVER ZAPATA AND STARR COUNTY WHERE THE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT FROM THE EAST AROUND 5 KNOTS. THE AREA OF CALM WINDS WILL
OBSERVE PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY AROUND MCALLEN.
RAIN FREE WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWERS 60S IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE COMING
WORK WEEK AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND SIMILAR TO THIS WEEK IS EXPECTED
FOR NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...LONG PERIOD EAST SWELLS AT BUOY020 CONTINUE TO BOUNCE
BETWEEN 6 AND 7 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
EAST WINDS. GULF SWELL WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS MODERATE TO STRONG EAST WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE GULF WATERS.
EXERCISE CAUTION APPEARS TO FIT THE SITUATION FOR NOW...BUT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE ON THE HORIZON FOR SUNDAY AS THE LONG
GULF FETCH CONTINUES. WINDS WILL BACK TO NORTHEAST AND NORTH LATE
SUNDAY SHOULD IDA BEGIN TO MAKE HER PRESENCE FELT IN THE GULF...
PUTTING THE KIBOSH ON LONG PERIOD SWELL. ANYTHING DEVELOPED BY IDA
WILL INITIALLY BE SHORTER PERIOD.
AS FOR COASTAL FLOODING...HAVE CHECKED THE LATEST OBSERVED TIDES...
AND THEY ARE RUNNING ABOUT 0.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. WILL REPLACE THE
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH WITH A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR NOW SINCE
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING CRITERIA ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE MET. RATHER...
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS MORE LIKELY. MAY THEREFORE NEED A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY AND POSSIBLY A HIGH SURF ADVISORY LATER TODAY THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY...COVERING THE TIMES OF ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE.
&&
.AVIATION...MID AND HIGH LEVEL ALTOCUMULUS CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO
THE LOWER RGV AREA FROM THE GULF OF MEX. THIS MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER IS COMING FROM A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND T.D. IDA...NOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...MOVING SLOWLY NORTH AND POISED TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO AFTER SUNDAY. REBOUNDING MOISTURE EVIDENT AT AND BELOW 850 MB
WILL LIKELY COMBINE WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS TO ALLOW FOR PATCHY
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG DEVELOPMENT. WILL MENTION THIS IN TEMPO
REMARKS AFTER 12Z WITH THE DENSEST FOG MOST LIKELY AFFECTING THE MFE
AND MID VALLEY AREA. OTHER THAN REDUCTIONS TO VSBYS IN EARLY MORNING
FOG...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST WIND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 83 69 82 69 / 20 40 10 50
BROWNSVILLE 85 68 85 67 / 30 30 10 30
HARLINGEN 87 66 84 66 / 10 20 10 30
MCALLEN 83 68 86 67 / 0 10 10 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 83 63 84 63 / 0 10 10 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 71 82 70 / 30 40 20 50
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE
53/54
000
FXUS64 KEWX 070911
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
311 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAS FORMED MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 AND
SOME LOW STRATUS OVER THE HILL COUNTRY IS LIKELY PROVIDING PATCHY
DENSE FOG TO SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT BY 10 AM,
AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PERSISTENCE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
THE EFFECTS OF A PACIFIC UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA
BY LATE TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO APPEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT MOVES ACROSS TX SUNDAY, AND STABLE AIR ALOFT
SHOULD BUILD IN ITS WAKE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. MILD TO COOL CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING
DYNAMICS FROM THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT SHOULD PREVENT A SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT, BUT A FEW STRONG STORM CELLS MAY DEVELOP DUE TO
TIMING OF AFTERNOON HEATING. SPOTTY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE-HALF
TO ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF I-35. THE UPPER TROUGH
PASSAGE ON MONDAY SHOULD KEEP ANY EFFECTS OF TROPICAL STORM IDA
OUT OF THE PICTURE FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A COLD FRONT EXPECTED
OVER TX TUESDAY IS SHOWING WEAKENING TRENDS WITH EACH NEW MODEL
RUN AS IS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHERN US. THUS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE
PICTURE FOR TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THE SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE WEAK FRONT LOOKS UNLIKELY TO REMOVE
MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, SO SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WOULD
NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE EARLY MORNINGS LATE NEXT WEEK,
WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES BY NEXT
SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 77 59 74 60 77 / - 10 40 30 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 77 56 74 59 77 / - 10 40 30 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 77 58 74 59 77 / - 10 40 30 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 76 57 70 56 73 / - 10 30 30 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 79 60 75 61 77 / - 10 30 10 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 76 58 73 59 75 / - 10 30 30 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 78 58 75 59 77 / - 10 40 20 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 77 57 74 59 76 / - 10 40 30 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 78 60 75 61 77 / - 10 50 30 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 77 59 74 61 77 / - 10 40 30 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 78 59 75 59 76 / - 10 40 30 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...
GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...LAVACA...
LEE...LLANO...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON.
&&
$$
18/04
000
FXUS64 KMAF 070547
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1147 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009
.DISCUSSION...
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A 40KT LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. WINDS AT THE SURFACE ARE
GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 10KTS AT KMAF...AND WE WILL INCLUDE A MENTION
OF LLWS AT KMAF UNTIL ROUGHLY 12Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE
SATURDAY...BUT ANY GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20KTS. CIRRUS
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE CENTER APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 157 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009/
DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA TODAY WILL TRAVERSE
EAST AND SUPPLANT THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS HEIGHTS FALL
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED. THEREFORE...COOL MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
SATURDAY WITH READINGS WARMING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AREAWIDE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FURTHER SATURDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL INHIBIT COOLING AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AND
KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY...COOL
TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY FROM SATURDAY AND TAKE ANY PRECIPITATION
EASTWARD BY SUNDAY EVENING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER
THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEND A
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION.
PRIOR TO THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES FURTHER...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE PECOS RIVER...SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER...WARMED LOWS MONDAY MORNING AND ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST AS UPGLIDE LOOKS
PARTICULARLY GOOD ON THE 295K SURFACE. THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS PROGS...SO HAVE DELAYED
COOLING A LITTLE MONDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA. HAVE
KEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS
UPGLIDE AGAIN INCREASES BEHIND THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH PATCHY DRIZZLE
AND FOG WILL LIKELY BE THE PREVAILING WEATHER. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL
HOLD SWAY OVER THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES
TAKE OVER AHEAD OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH PROGGED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BY LATE NEXT WEEK. HAVE WARMED
TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE EXTENDED AND POSTPONED ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SINCE THIS NEXT UPPER TROUGH IS INDICATED TO BE DEEPER...SLOWER AND
STRONGER THAN PRIOR RUNS. THE FRONT MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLUB 070544
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1144 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009
.AVIATION...
BREEZY SSW SFC WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED BENEATH A 35-40 KT LOW-LEVEL
JET. THE BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW HOURS
BEFORE DIMINISHING AS THE LLJ SLOWLY WEAKENS AND LOW-LEVELS
DECOUPLE. LIGHT SW/W WINDS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BACK TO SOUTHERLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH ONLY A
FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009/
SHORT TERM...
CLOSED UPPER HIGH ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS HAS UNDERGONE FLATTENING IN
THE PAST 24 HOURS...HOWEVER THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THIS RIDGE AXIS
WILL DOMINATE THE CWA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEFORE A DECAYING UPPER
LOW MIGRATES EAST TO THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE BY SAT NIGHT. WEAK
TROUGHING NORTH OF THIS LOW WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL AND SRN
ROCKIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND THIS SHOULD ENCOURAGE A
SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SW TX PANHANDLE TO BEGIN
DRIFTING WEST. UPSHOT OF THIS WILL BE LESS OF A SWLY SURFACE WIND
COMPONENT ON SAT RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY LOWER THICKNESSES AND IMPROVED
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAINLY OFF THE CAPROCK. UNTIL THEN A DRY AIRMASS
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT RAPID COOLING OVERNIGHT IN SPITE OF BOTH
TODAY/S UNUSUAL WARMTH /RECORD HIGH AT CDS/ AND THE RETURN OF A
35-40 KT LLJ OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM...
LOW RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH OCCASIONAL FRONTAL PASSAGES
CONTINUE TO OFFER THE ONLY DEVIATION FROM OTHERWISE BENIGN FALL
WEATHER.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UA LOW NOW SEEN IN VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
BAJA WILL BE PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TOWARDS
CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY...YET THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO PROVIDE LITTLE
TO NO IMPACT ON SOUTH PLAINS WEATHER. INSTEAD...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD AS NEAR ZONAL FLOW AMPLIFIES TOWARD A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.
MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE POST FRONTAL CLOUDINESS/QPF OVER THE
SOUTH PLAINS WITHIN THE POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE ENVIRONMENT LATE
MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY. WHILE INCREASED CLOUDINESS APPEARS LIKELY...
WILL RESTRICT POPS TO THE CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF SHOWERS
GIVEN BUILDING HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EASTWARD TRANSLATION OF
THE UA RIDGE AXIS AND AN APPARENT LACK OF NOTABLE UPGLIDE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME RUN-TO-RUN DISCREPANCIES IN HANDLING
THE EJECTION OF ANOTHER WESTERN U.S. UA LOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THE LATEST TRENDS SEEM A LITTLE LESS OPTIMISTIC FOR PRECIPITATION
LOCALLY GIVEN A MORE NORTHERN EJECTION. THIS WOULD TEND TO LIMIT
RAIN CHANCES TIL FROPA DURING THE WEEKEND...AFTER THIS PERIOD. FOR
NOW HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT HAVE FOCUSED THEM ON
THE NORTHERN ZONES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 41 78 42 73 42 / 0 0 0 10 0
TULIA 44 80 44 73 45 / 0 0 0 10 0
PLAINVIEW 44 79 46 74 46 / 0 0 0 10 0
LEVELLAND 43 79 46 74 46 / 0 0 10 10 0
LUBBOCK 46 80 49 74 48 / 0 0 10 10 0
DENVER CITY 44 78 46 75 46 / 0 0 10 10 0
BROWNFIELD 44 80 47 74 47 / 0 0 10 10 0
CHILDRESS 49 83 50 75 48 / 0 0 0 10 0
SPUR 46 80 51 75 48 / 0 0 10 10 10
ASPERMONT 50 80 53 75 51 / 0 0 10 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
23
000
FXUS64 KEWX 070539
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1139 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009
.AVIATION...
MOVED BACK LOW CIGS/VSBYS UNTIL 08 UTC BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE
AND OBSERVATION TRENDS. STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD IFR COVERAGE
AT KAUS/KSAT/KSSF...AND LATER AT KDRT. LIFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
DEVELOP AROUND 11 UTC AND LAST THROUGH 16 UTC...THEN SCATTER OUT
TO VFR AROUND 18 UTC. EXPECT A REPEAT SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH IFR
BEGINNING AROUND 07 UTC NOV 8.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 57 80 59 75 61 / 0 - 10 30 30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 52 81 56 76 60 / 0 - 10 30 30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 53 81 57 75 59 / 0 - - 40 30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 55 77 56 71 57 / 0 - 10 20 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 57 79 59 76 59 / 0 0 10 20 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 56 78 55 73 60 / 0 - 10 30 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 54 80 59 75 59 / 0 - - 30 30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 54 80 56 75 61 / 0 - 10 40 30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 55 80 59 78 60 / 0 - - 40 30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 58 81 60 75 61 / 0 - - 40 30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 56 80 60 75 60 / 0 - - 40 30
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
13/26
000
FXUS64 KCRP 070537
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1137 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009
.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...HAVE KEPT LIFR CONDITIONS FOR ALI AND VCT AS FOG IS
BEGINNING TO DVLP ACROSS THE VCT AREA AND IS EXPECTED TO DVLP
FARTHER S BUT TO A LESSER DEGREE DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
ACROSS S TX FROM THE S. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HAMPER RADIATIONAL
COOLING/FOG DVLP...LEADING TO MORE VARIABLE VSBY/CIGS FOR THE ALI
TAF SITE. FOR LRD...LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
LEADING TO LIFR/IFR CIGS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY AROUND
15Z ACROSS MUCH OF S TX SATURDAY MORNING WITH CIGS AROUND 15KFT TO
18KFT. FOG IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009/
DISCUSSION...VISIBILITIES ARE BEGINNING TO LOWER ACROSS THE NE
CWA WITH VCT REPORTING 1/4SM. THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY WHICH COVERS THE COUNTIES OF SAN PATRICIO TO LIVE OAK AND
NORTHWARD TO VICTORIA AND CALHOUN COUNTIES. THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
BEND IS UNDER A THICKENING VEIL OF CIRRUS WHICH MAY HAMPER FOG
DVLPMNT TO SOME DEGREE AND LEAD TO FOG BEING MORE PATCHY IN
NATURE AND VISIBILITIES BEING MORE VARIABLE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 845 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009/
DISCUSSION...AS MENTIONED IN AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...FOG
CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TONIGHT. AM CONFIDENT FOG WILL
DVLP. HOWEVER...JUST HOW DENSE OR WIDESPREAD IS STILL UNCERTAIN
DUE TO CIRRUS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND DUE TO
LOW LEVEL WINDS BEING SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THIS MORNING`S WINDS.
SFC WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RADIATIONAL FOG BUT
THE UNCERTAINTY LIES IN JUST HOW DENSE THE FOG BECOMES. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY POSSIBLE
LATER TONIGHT. FOR NOW NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FCST.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR THE TAF PERIOD IS THE
ONSET AND INTENSITY OF IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
TONIGHT. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE CURRENTLY LOWER THAN 24 HOURS
AGO...TYPICALLY MEANING A EARLIER ONSET OF RADIATIONAL FOG/MIST.
INLAND AREAS SHOULD SEE DENSE FOG DEVELOP AROUND 06Z FOR KVCT AND
AROUND 10Z FOR KALI. MVFR BCFG IS EXPECTED FOR KCRP SINCE THE WIND
COMPONENT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND NORTHEASTERLY...ADVECTING
RELATIVELY WARMER BAY WATER AIR ACROSS KCRP AND PREVENTING A GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING ENVIRONMENT. KLRD SHOULD SEE PRIMARILY IFR CIGS
BETWEEN 11Z-15Z DUE TO INCREASING LLJ DYNAMICS. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED ENOUGH TO ONLY GENERATE MVFR VSBYS ALONG THE
RIO GRANDE DURING THE SAME PERIOD. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 14Z-15Z AREAWIDE...THEN PREVAIL ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS THAT HAS PROVIDED THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF CHAMBER OF COMMERCE
WEATHER DAYS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS
WILL ALLOW AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
TEMPS. ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW DOES INCREASE SLIGHTLY
TONIGHT...STILL LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY-AREAS OF DENSE FOG FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS
WITH WORSE CONDITIONS LIKELY IN NERN AREAS WHICH REMAINS MOST
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE TONIGHT. LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOC
W/ THE BAJA LOW SEEN ON WV IMAGERY WILL ARRIVE EARLY SUN MORNING.
LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL FEED NORTH AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM TO
PROVIDE LOW RAIN CHCS AFTER 6Z SUN. WILL SHOW 10-30 POPS FAVORING
THE SRN COASTAL BEND AND SRN GULF ZONES DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
THE SFC LOW ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING NORTH
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF...BUT IS MORE OF A FACTOR IN THE LONG TERM
PERIODS AND IS DESCRIBED BELOW. POSSIBILITIES OF MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ASSOC W/ THIS SYSTEM ARE INCLUDED IN A COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...UPPER TROUGH PROGGED
TO CROSS MEXICO AND TRACK DIRECTLY ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS LATE SUNDAY.
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE EARLY SUNDAY AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SHOWERS
SUNDAY MORNING FOR OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE COASTAL BEND. THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH AND COUPLED JET STRUCTURE AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL DRAW A SURFACE DISTURBANCE
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WEST GULF...SEPARATE FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE IDA
WHICH IS PROGGED TO TRACK OVER THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN GULF TO
FLORIDA. THERE IS CONCERN THAT THE NON TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL
FOCUS MOST OF THE RAIN...AND HEAVY RAIN...ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF
SIMILAR TO THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF PROGS. HOWEVER...LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER UP TO 1.8 INCHES ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
MEETING THE 12 HOURS OF DYNAMICS FROM THE APPROACHING SOUTHERN
STREAM UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BRING ADDITIONAL AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS FROM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MID
LEVEL WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHERLY...FOLLOWED BY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING
TO NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND INCREASING ON MONDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER
WITH THE TROUGH AXIS SUNDAY NIGHT BUT SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ON MONDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND
NAM KEEP SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON MONDAY WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS...SO ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WOULD OCCUR ON
MONDAY. THE 12Z NAM WAS SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSIVE OF THE PATTERN
WHICH DELAYS THE STRONGER NORTH WINDS PROGGED ON THE GFS AND ECMWF
FOR MONDAY. THIS WILL FACTOR INTO A LONGER PERIOD OF STRONGER
NORTHEASTERLY FOR COASTAL WATER LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THE 18Z NAM RUN APPEARS TO BE CLOSER TO THE GFS FOR MODERATE
NORTHEAST FLOW MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AIR MASS STARTS TO DRY MONDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IN NORTHEAST FLOW ALONG THE COAST. SIGNIFICANT DRYING IN THE
NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY WITH WEAKENING NORTHERLY
FLOW. AIR MASS TEMPERATURES CHANGE LITTLE EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND
THE TROUGH BUT A COUPLE DEGREES OF COOLING NOTED BY WEDNESDAY...
THEN SLIGHT WARMING AGAIN. THIS SHOULD KEEPS MAX TEMPS AROUND
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AND LOW TEMPERATURES COOLING THROUGH
THURSDAY DUE TO DRY AIR MASS AND DECREASING WIND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 59 82 66 79 63 / 0 10 20 60 30
VICTORIA 55 82 62 76 60 / 0 10 10 50 30
LAREDO 61 88 64 80 63 / 0 0 10 40 10
ALICE 57 84 64 79 62 / 0 10 20 50 30
ROCKPORT 63 80 67 78 66 / 0 10 20 60 30
COTULLA 54 83 61 78 59 / 0 0 10 40 20
KINGSVILLE 57 82 66 80 62 / 0 10 30 50 30
NAVY CORPUS 64 80 69 78 66 / 0 10 20 60 30
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...LIVE OAK...
REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TE/81...AVIATION
000
FXUS64 KAMA 070535 AAB
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1135 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009
.AVIATION...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. SURFACE TROUGH MAY INDUCE
WEAK WIND SHIFT AT GUY/DHT AROUND 12Z/13Z...BEFORE RETURNING TO A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY 18Z. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN 15
KNOTS OR LESS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. VFR FORECAST CONTINUES WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER.
TAB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009/
AVIATION...
VFR FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WIND SHIFT POSSIBLE AT GUY/DHT AROUND
12Z SATURDAY AS SURFACE TROUGH SLIDES INTO THE PANHANDLES...BUT KEPT
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT AMA. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KNOTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TAB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009/
DISCUSSION...
MID LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD TODAY AFFORDED CLEAR SKIES AND WITH MAXIMUM
HEATING POTENTIAL...SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN THE PANHANDLES HAVE SEEN
TEMPS APPROACH OR EVEN BREAK RECORD HIGHS. CURRENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES AREA OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHICH CAN MOVE INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT BUT STILL EXPECT OVERALL SKIES TO BE MOSTLY
CLEAR. A 30 TO 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT KEEPING A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. WITH WINDS HIGH ENOUGH TO
PREVENT MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS...SHOULD SEE ANOTHER MILD
NIGHT WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
RIDGE SHOULD MOVE EAST SATURDAY AS CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR THE BAJA
CA REGION MOVES ACROSS OLD MEXICO. SINCE THIS LOW WILL STAY PRETTY
FAR SOUTH OF THE AMA CWA AND CUTS OFF ANY KIND OF GULF MOISTURE
RETURN TO THE AREA...PRECIP CHANCES LOOK PRETTY SLIM. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TEMPS UPWARD FOR SATURDAY AND WITH DOWNSLOPING
LOW LEVEL FLOW...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND BUMPED UP HIGH TEMPS INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WINDS MAY VEER MORE NORTHERLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES SATURDAY WITH A WEAK COOL FRONT NEARBY FROM THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER WAVE. BUT WITHOUT A GOOD PUSH OF COLDER AIR
BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...NORTHERN SECTIONS SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE
WARMING UP TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. SUNDAY SHOULD SEE COOLER TEMPS BUT
OTHERWISE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PLEASANT FALL WX AS THE LOW MOVES
INTO CENTRAL TX.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AS IT
PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND HEADS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
REGION MONDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY AND WHILE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A LITTLE ON THE CHANCES OF
PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT...STILL KEPT MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE
COOL POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW. DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN MID
WEEK WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS BUT WILL QUICKLY
GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HAVE MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED AS
THIS SYSTEM CAN BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP BY DAY 7/FRIDAY. CLK
FIRE WEATHER...
ALTHOUGH WARM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES TO FALL TO AROUND 20 PERCENT IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES...20 FOOT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
20 MPH. SO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS NOT EXPECTED. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS
COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. CLK
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
10/02
000
FXUS64 KFWD 070528 AAC
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1128 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009
.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY OF SOUTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT. SOME
MVFR STRATUS MAY SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ZONES BY 12Z. HAVE PLACED 5SM BR BKN015 FOR THE 12Z TO
16Z PERIOD FOR WACO...WITH AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AFTER 18Z. HAVE
JUST PLACED SCT015 FOR THE METROPLEX TAF SITES AFTER 14Z. A
STRONGER SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND HAVE PLACED BKN015 IN THE DFW TAF STARTING AT 10Z
SUNDAY.
58
&&
.UPDATE...
LATEST FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE BUT WILL MAKE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENT TO OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER. 00Z SOUNDING DATA FROM
CRP/BRO/DRT INDICATES BEST MOISTURE IS REALLY CONFINED TO DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS AND THE FAR WESTERN GULF. STILL THINK LOW CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT DOWN THERE AND SPREAD NORTH...BUT FORECAST
LOW LEVEL WINDS NOT REAL FAVORABLE FOR A RAPID NORTHWARD MOISTURE
SURGE...EVEN AHEAD OF APPROACHING S/W. WILL DELAY ARRIVAL OF LOWER
CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA UNTIL LATE OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS IN GOOD SHAPE UNDER CLEAR SKIES. SOUTHERLY FLOW
AROUND 10 KTS WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S OVERNIGHT.
91/DUNN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009/
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...FAIR WEATHER LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS MORNING A LOW LEVEL STRATUS
DECK HAD DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEASTERN TX...AND WITH ANOTHER 36 TO
48 HRS OF SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED ACRS NORTH TX...FEEL THAT
OVERNIGHT STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WILL CREEP FURTHER NORTH TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE STRATUS DECK
TONIGHT IS FAIRLY SHALLOW...SO REGARDLESS OF HOW FAR NORTH IT
PUSHES A FEW HOURS OF SUNSHINE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE IT TO
DISSIPATE BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS. TOMORROW NIGHT THE STRATUS
DECK LOOKS TO MOVE IN EARLIER AND BE SOMEWHAT THICKER...SO STRATUS
MAY NOT MIX OUT UNTIL THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HRS. WITH THIS IN
MIND...DESPITE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY COOLER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THRU CENTRAL TX AND TOWARDS THE
CWA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH ONLY SHALLOW MOISTURE IN PLACE AND A
SFC LOW CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF...KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
SPREAD POPS TO COVER ALL OF NORTH TX AS LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT IS FAIRLY STRONG OVER THE ENTIRE CWA...HOWEVER LIMITED
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND LOW LVL FLOW BACKING AS THIS TROUGH
APPROACHES SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE OF ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
MANAGES TO DEVELOP. IF THE LOW LVL FLOW DOES NOT BACK...MEANING
THE SFC LOW/INVERTED TROUGH DOES NOT SET UP OVER THE WESTERN GULF
AS EXPECTED...DEEPER GULF MOISTURE MAY MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE
CWA AND ENHANCE PRECIP CHANCES. FOR NOW HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE
HAS ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES NORTHEAST OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
SUBSIDENCE SPREADS OVER THE CWA FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS
FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A COLD/PACIFIC FRONT THROUGH NORTH
TX AS THIS FEATURE EXITS THE REGION...SO KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE CONTINUING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...DO NOT THINK
THAT MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. LIMITED MOISTURE
IS ALSO A FACTOR IN THIS...BUT LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
CANNOT BE IGNORED...SO SOME CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WARRANTED.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO RETURN TO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BRINGING ABOUT ANOTHER PERIOD OF MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM GRADUALLY DURING THE PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 57 78 59 74 58 / 0 5 5 20 20
WACO, TX 56 79 59 75 56 / 0 5 5 20 20
PARIS, TX 52 78 54 75 53 / 0 5 5 20 20
DENTON, TX 54 78 57 74 55 / 0 5 5 20 20
MCKINNEY, TX 53 78 57 74 57 / 0 5 5 20 20
DALLAS, TX 58 78 59 75 59 / 0 5 5 20 20
TERRELL, TX 55 78 56 75 57 / 0 5 5 20 20
CORSICANA, TX 57 79 59 76 56 / 0 5 5 20 20
TEMPLE, TX 55 78 54 75 55 / 0 5 5 20 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
58/91
000
FXUS64 KSJT 070527 AAC
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1127 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS THINKING. EXPECT A SCATTERED TO BROKEN
FIELD OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH SOME INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...
SOME PATCHY STRATOCUMULUS MAY DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
AREA. ALSO EXPECT HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE TO INCREASE BY LATE SATURDAY
AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM MEXICO. SOUTH
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 806 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009/
UPDATE...
THE MAIN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO TWEAK LOWS TONIGHT IN SOME
AREAS. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW.
DISCUSSION...
THE VALLEYS ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR DECOUPLED LAST NIGHT...AND
SONORA DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 30S WHILE JUNCTION DIPPED DOWN INTO
THE LOWER 40S. IN CONTRAST...THE BIG COUNTRY SITES OF KABI AND
KSWW HAD LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S DUE TO THE PERSISTENT SOUTH
WINDS OFF THE TERRAIN TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE SITES.
THE 00Z NAM FORECASTS ANOTHER NIGHT OF PERSISTENT 5 TO 15 MPH
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WILL BE
INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND THIS WILL
AFFECT LOWS DOWN ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR. NEVERTHELESS...I REDUCED
LOWS AT SONORA AND BROWNWOOD WHICH TEND TO BE THE COOL SPOTS AND
RAISED LOWS SLIGHTLY AT SWEETWATER WHICH TENDS TO BE THE WARM SPOT
WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ALL NIGHT.
THE NAM ALSO FORECASTS LOW CIGS TO SPREAD NORTHWEST INTO THE FCST
AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE CURRENT SKY GRIDS
HANDLE THIS WELL AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES.
LACY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION.
AVIATION...
WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND REGIME...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL
OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AND ADVECTION INTO SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WITH MVFR BASES AND CEILINGS.
HAVE A TEMPO BKN SKY CONDITION INCLUDED IN THE TAFS FOR KJCT...
KSOA...AND KBBD. SOUTH WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...AND LESS THAN 10 KT
FARTHER SOUTH. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY 10-15 KT ON
SATURDAY...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT BY AFTERNOON AT KABI AND
KSJT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009/
SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE AREA...BRINGING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARDS THE BAJA PENINSULA. A LEE
SIDE TROUGH IS BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS FOR TODAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURNING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING MORNING
STRATUS ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH
MID MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL RESULT IS SLIGHTLY WARMER MORNING LOWS FOR SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
WITH ISOLATED UPPER 40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. AFTERNOON HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWS 80S ONCE AGAIN ON
SATURDAY.
LONG TERM...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUN WITH BEST
MOISTURE AND LIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS. WILL ADD ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THIS AREA DURING THE DAY BUT EXPECT MAINLY AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WITH THE SYSTEM. TEMPS A BIT COOLER ON SUN
WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. MODELS
NOW A BIT SLOWER IN MOVING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATING FRONTAL PASSAGE MON
NIGHT. MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL BE DRY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH THE
ONLY AVAILABLE MOISTURE CONFINED TO LOW LEVELS. KEPT A SLIGHT POP
GOING MON NIGHT THEN DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE WITH
SFC RIDGE OVER THE AREA. SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS EAST INTO THE
PLAINS TUE NIGHT AND WED AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA
THROUGH FRI WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING AND TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL
VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 56 79 54 73 54 / 0 0 10 10 10
SAN ANGELO 54 79 54 73 53 / 0 0 10 10 10
JUNCTION 50 78 54 72 52 / 0 0 10 10 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHGX 070526
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1126 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009
.AVIATION...
FOG IS BEGINNING TO FORM ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO CLEAR SKIES
LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. I EXPECT THE FOG
TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS DURING THE NIGHT
BECOMING WIDESPREAD WITH SOME AREAS HAVING VISIBILITY BELOW 1/2
MILE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FAIRLY RAPIDLY FROM 14Z-15Z BECOMING
CLEAR AND VISIBILITY ABOVE 6 MILES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER
15Z AND DECREASING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS AFTER 00Z EXCEPT NEAR THE
COAST WHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 10 KNOTS FROM THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009/
UPDATE...
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10
CORRIDOR (MINUS HARRIS COUNTY) TO ACCOUNT FOR AN ENVIRONMENT THAT
IS PRIMED FOR THE FORMATION OF DENSE FOG. THE ONLY ISSUE THAT MAY
THWART THIS ADVISORY WOULD BE A THICKER HIGH CANOPY (SPIRALING UP
FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE`S UNSETTLED WEATHER) ULTIMATELY INHIBITING
RADIATIVE COOLING. SITES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-59 CORRIDOR (SW
COUNTIES) ARE ALREADY ON THE DECLINE AS VISBIES FALL BELOW 6SM.
18Z MODEL RUNS HAVE VARYING OPINIONS ON WHAT WILL EVENTUALLY EVOLVE
THROUGH MONDAY. RECENT RUNS HAVE A BROAD SFC CLOSED-OFF LOW/INV TROF
(EITHER MOVING UP FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OR THIS FEATURE MERGING
WITH TD IDA) TRENDING MORE EAST. LOWER QPF AS THE MAJORITY OF THE
RAINFALL WILL FALL WITHIN THIS LOW`S NE QUAD...OR ALONG AND EAST
OF LOUISIANA. QPF NUMBERS ARE ON THE DOWNTURN AND THE MENTION OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL HAS BEEN QUELLED. EASTERLY FETCH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF MAY BE REDUCED...AS WELL..ALTHOUGH MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING COULD OCCUR ACROSS MORE IKE-ERODED BEACH FRONTS.
ATTM...AN ONGOING COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT SEEMS TO BE THE BEST
MOVE. 31
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009/
AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AND AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL LEAD TO RADIATION FOG AT SEVERAL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. FOG
WILL BEGIN TO FORM BEFORE MIDNIGHT AT KLBX AND AFTER MIDNIGHT AT
INLAND LOCATIONS. THE MOST INTENSE FOG WILL OCCUR FROM 09Z-14Z
WITH SOME TAF SITES VSBY LOWERING TO 1/2 MILE OR LOWER (KCXO...KSGR
KLBX). OTHER TAF SITES VSBY WILL LOWER TO AROUND 1 MILE EXCEPT FOR
KGLS WHERE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO STRONGER WINDS. FOG WILL
LIFT AROUND 14Z AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL AFTER 15Z. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT EXCEPT EAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT KGLS.
AFTER 15Z WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009/
DISCUSSION...
AS EVIDENT BY THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN CU
COVERAGE THIS AFTN...THE AIRMASS IS CONTINUING TO MOISTEN AS THE
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS/DEEPENS. AND BECAUSE OF THIS WE SHOULD SEE
ANOTHER MORNING OF FOG ACROSS MOST OF SE TX TOMORROW. AS FOR THE
MUCH ANTICIPATED RAINS ON SUN/SUN NIGHT NOT TOO MANY CHANGES ARE
PLANNED TO THE GOING FCST EVEN AS MODELS CONTINUE TO WAFFLE WITH
SOME OF THE FINER DETAILS. TO WIT...THE LATEST GFS RUN KEEPS THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE FROM THIS CAMPECHE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
OF US (AS THE FEATURES MOVES NNEWD) WHILE THE ECMWF/NAM/CANADIAN
ALL MAINTAIN THEIR PREVIOUS TRACKS TOWARD EXTREME SERN TX/SABINE
PASS AREA. AS FOR THE UPPER LOW/TROF DEVELOPING OUT WEST...A FEW
TWEAKS NOTED WITH THE STRENGTH/TILT OF THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES TO
THE EAST NEAR US. MODELS NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE BUT THE OVERALL
TIMING APPEARS TO REMAIN THE SAME. SO AGAIN...NO CHANGES TO POPS
AND WINDS FOR THE LATE SAT THRU MON TIME FRAME. AS THE TROF AXIS
PASSES ON MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE WILL BEGIN AND SKIES WILL CLEAR BY
MON NIGHT. BENIGN WEATHER TO AGAIN DOMINATE THE AREA FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THROUGH MID-WEEK. 41
MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MODELS CONTINUE TO
FORECAST A DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. LATEST MODEL
RUNS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE HANDLING OF THE LOW...NOW
KEEPING IT WEAKER AND FURTHER OFFSHORE THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SAT AFTN THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING LOW AND THE HIGH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REACH CAUTION CRITERIA SAT
AFTN/NIGHT AND INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA BY SUN AFTN AS THE LOW LIFTS
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FT
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
TIDES ARE STILL FORECAST TO INCREASE ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST
BEGINNING SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY. TIDE LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO PEAK IN
THE 3.0-4.5 FT RANGE...MAINLY DURING THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE SUNDAY
NIGHT. OVERALL...THIS WILL BE A MINOR EVENT...WITH THE MAIN IMPACT
BEING ON THE VULNERABLE BOLIVAR PENINSULA. GIVEN THE MINOR NATURE
OF THE EVENT AND THE TIME FRAME STILL 48 HRS AWAY...WILL JUST
REISSUE COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT RATHER THAN GOING WITH A WATCH
YET. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST
OF THE WATERS...RESULTING IN A QUICK DROP IN TIDE LEVELS. ANOTHER
SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL PUSH DOWN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW
KEEPING A MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW AND ALLOWING SCEC/SCA TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 35
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS AND EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KTS. WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT EAST
WINDS...AND DRY AIR ALOFT...FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AGAIN
TONIGHT. EXPECT FOG TO IMPACT RURAL TERMINALS LIKE KLBX/KCXO/KSGR
BEGINNING 04-08Z. VISIBILITIES OF 1/4-1/2SM POSSIBLE AT THESE SITES
MAINLY 10-14Z. FOG WILL IMPACT THE LARGER AIRPORTS MAINLY 10-14Z
WITH VISIBILITIES OF 2-4SM POSSIBLE. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF ALL AREAS
BY 15Z SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS. 35
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 54 79 60 78 59 / 10 10 10 20 30
HOUSTON (IAH) 56 78 61 77 61 / 10 10 10 30 40
GALVESTON (GLS) 62 75 68 76 67 / 10 10 20 30 50
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...
JACKSON...MATAGORDA...WHARTON.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION/MARINE...34
000
FXUS64 KCRP 070425
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1025 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009
.DISCUSSION...VISIBILITIES ARE BEGINNING TO LOWER ACROSS THE NE
CWA WITH VCT REPORTING 1/4SM. THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY WHICH COVERS THE COUNTIES OF SAN PATRICIO TO LIVE OAK AND
NORTHWARD TO VICTORIA AND CALHOUN COUNTIES. THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
BEND IS UNDER A THICKENING VEIL OF CIRRUS WHICH MAY HAMPER FOG
DVLPMNT TO SOME DEGREE AND LEAD TO FOG BEING MORE PATCHY IN
NATURE AND VISIBILITIES BEING MORE VARIABLE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 845 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009/
DISCUSSION...AS MENTIONED IN AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...FOG
CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TONIGHT. AM CONFIDENT FOG WILL
DVLP. HOWEVER...JUST HOW DENSE OR WIDESPREAD IS STILL UNCERTAIN
DUE TO CIRRUS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND DUE TO
LOW LEVEL WINDS BEING SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THIS MORNING`S WINDS.
SFC WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RADIATIONAL FOG BUT
THE UNCERTAINTY LIES IN JUST HOW DENSE THE FOG BECOMES. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY POSSIBLE
LATER TONIGHT. FOR NOW NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FCST.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR THE TAF PERIOD IS THE
ONSET AND INTENSITY OF IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
TONIGHT. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE CURRENTLY LOWER THAN 24 HOURS
AGO...TYPICALLY MEANING A EARLIER ONSET OF RADIATIONAL FOG/MIST.
INLAND AREAS SHOULD SEE DENSE FOG DEVELOP AROUND 06Z FOR KVCT AND
AROUND 10Z FOR KALI. MVFR BCFG IS EXPECTED FOR KCRP SINCE THE WIND
COMPONENT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND NORTHEASTERLY...ADVECTING
RELATIVELY WARMER BAY WATER AIR ACROSS KCRP AND PREVENTING A GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING ENVIRONMENT. KLRD SHOULD SEE PRIMARILY IFR CIGS
BETWEEN 11Z-15Z DUE TO INCREASING LLJ DYNAMICS. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED ENOUGH TO ONLY GENERATE MVFR VSBYS ALONG THE
RIO GRANDE DURING THE SAME PERIOD. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 14Z-15Z AREAWIDE...THEN PREVAIL ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS THAT HAS PROVIDED THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF CHAMBER OF COMMERCE
WEATHER DAYS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS
WILL ALLOW AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
TEMPS. ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW DOES INCREASE SLIGHTLY
TONIGHT...STILL LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY-AREAS OF DENSE FOG FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS
WITH WORSE CONDITIONS LIKELY IN NERN AREAS WHICH REMAINS MOST
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE TONIGHT. LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOC
W/ THE BAJA LOW SEEN ON WV IMAGERY WILL ARRIVE EARLY SUN MORNING.
LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL FEED NORTH AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM TO
PROVIDE LOW RAIN CHCS AFTER 6Z SUN. WILL SHOW 10-30 POPS FAVORING
THE SRN COASTAL BEND AND SRN GULF ZONES DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
THE SFC LOW ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING NORTH
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF...BUT IS MORE OF A FACTOR IN THE LONG TERM
PERIODS AND IS DESCRIBED BELOW. POSSIBILITIES OF MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ASSOC W/ THIS SYSTEM ARE INCLUDED IN A COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...UPPER TROUGH PROGGED
TO CROSS MEXICO AND TRACK DIRECTLY ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS LATE SUNDAY.
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE EARLY SUNDAY AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SHOWERS
SUNDAY MORNING FOR OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE COASTAL BEND. THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH AND COUPLED JET STRUCTURE AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL DRAW A SURFACE DISTURBANCE
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WEST GULF...SEPARATE FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE IDA
WHICH IS PROGGED TO TRACK OVER THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN GULF TO
FLORIDA. THERE IS CONCERN THAT THE NON TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL
FOCUS MOST OF THE RAIN...AND HEAVY RAIN...ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF
SIMILAR TO THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF PROGS. HOWEVER...LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER UP TO 1.8 INCHES ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
MEETING THE 12 HOURS OF DYNAMICS FROM THE APPROACHING SOUTHERN
STREAM UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BRING ADDITIONAL AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS FROM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MID
LEVEL WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHERLY...FOLLOWED BY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING
TO NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND INCREASING ON MONDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER
WITH THE TROUGH AXIS SUNDAY NIGHT BUT SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ON MONDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND
NAM KEEP SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON MONDAY WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS...SO ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WOULD OCCUR ON
MONDAY. THE 12Z NAM WAS SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSIVE OF THE PATTERN
WHICH DELAYS THE STRONGER NORTH WINDS PROGGED ON THE GFS AND ECMWF
FOR MONDAY. THIS WILL FACTOR INTO A LONGER PERIOD OF STRONGER
NORTHEASTERLY FOR COASTAL WATER LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THE 18Z NAM RUN APPEARS TO BE CLOSER TO THE GFS FOR MODERATE
NORTHEAST FLOW MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AIR MASS STARTS TO DRY MONDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IN NORTHEAST FLOW ALONG THE COAST. SIGNIFICANT DRYING IN THE
NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY WITH WEAKENING NORTHERLY
FLOW. AIR MASS TEMPERATURES CHANGE LITTLE EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND
THE TROUGH BUT A COUPLE DEGREES OF COOLING NOTED BY WEDNESDAY...
THEN SLIGHT WARMING AGAIN. THIS SHOULD KEEPS MAX TEMPS AROUND
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AND LOW TEMPERATURES COOLING THROUGH
THURSDAY DUE TO DRY AIR MASS AND DECREASING WIND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 59 82 66 79 63 / 0 10 20 60 30
VICTORIA 55 82 62 76 60 / 0 10 10 50 30
LAREDO 61 88 64 80 63 / 0 0 10 40 10
ALICE 57 84 64 79 62 / 0 10 20 50 30
ROCKPORT 63 80 67 78 66 / 0 10 20 60 30
COTULLA 54 83 61 78 59 / 0 0 10 40 20
KINGSVILLE 57 82 66 80 62 / 0 10 30 50 30
NAVY CORPUS 64 80 69 78 66 / 0 10 20 60 30
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...LIVE OAK...
REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TE/81...SHORT TERM
TM/95...AVIATION
000
FXUS64 KFWD 070358 AAB
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
958 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009
.UPDATE...
LATEST FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE BUT WILL MAKE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENT TO OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER. 00Z SOUNDING DATA FROM
CRP/BRO/DRT INDICATES BEST MOISTURE IS REALLY CONFINED TO DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS AND THE FAR WESTERN GULF. STILL THINK LOW CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT DOWN THERE AND SPREAD NORTH...BUT FORECAST
LOW LEVEL WINDS NOT REAL FAVORABLE FOR A RAPID NORTHWARD MOISTURE
SURGE...EVEN AHEAD OF APPROACHING S/W. WILL DELAY ARRIVAL OF LOWER
CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA UNTIL LATE OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS IN GOOD SHAPE UNDER CLEAR SKIES. SOUTHERLY FLOW
AROUND 10 KTS WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S OVERNIGHT.
91/DUNN
&&
.AVIATION...
A 30 TO 35 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL START TO TAP SOME MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN IFR/MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS...AND SOME MVFR STRATUS SPREADING NORTHEAST
INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES BY 10Z. HAVE
JUST PUT IN SCATTERED FOR THE METROPLEX TAFS...AS IT LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL TAKE ANOTHER NIGHT BEFORE WE GET MVFR CEILINGS FOR THOSE TAF
SITES.
58
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009/
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...FAIR WEATHER LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS MORNING A LOW LEVEL STRATUS
DECK HAD DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEASTERN TX...AND WITH ANOTHER 36 TO
48 HRS OF SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED ACRS NORTH TX...FEEL THAT
OVERNIGHT STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WILL CREEP FURTHER NORTH TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE STRATUS DECK
TONIGHT IS FAIRLY SHALLOW...SO REGARDLESS OF HOW FAR NORTH IT
PUSHES A FEW HOURS OF SUNSHINE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE IT TO
DISSIPATE BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS. TOMORROW NIGHT THE STRATUS
DECK LOOKS TO MOVE IN EARLIER AND BE SOMEWHAT THICKER...SO STRATUS
MAY NOT MIX OUT UNTIL THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HRS. WITH THIS IN
MIND...DESPITE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY COOLER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THRU CENTRAL TX AND TOWARDS THE
CWA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH ONLY SHALLOW MOISTURE IN PLACE AND A
SFC LOW CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF...KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
SPREAD POPS TO COVER ALL OF NORTH TX AS LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT IS FAIRLY STRONG OVER THE ENTIRE CWA...HOWEVER LIMITED
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND LOW LVL FLOW BACKING AS THIS TROUGH
APPROACHES SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE OF ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
MANAGES TO DEVELOP. IF THE LOW LVL FLOW DOES NOT BACK...MEANING
THE SFC LOW/INVERTED TROUGH DOES NOT SET UP OVER THE WESTERN GULF
AS EXPECTED...DEEPER GULF MOISTURE MAY MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE
CWA AND ENHANCE PRECIP CHANCES. FOR NOW HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE
HAS ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES NORTHEAST OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
SUBSIDENCE SPREADS OVER THE CWA FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS
FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A COLD/PACIFIC FRONT THROUGH NORTH
TX AS THIS FEATURE EXITS THE REGION...SO KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE CONTINUING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...DO NOT THINK
THAT MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. LIMITED MOISTURE
IS ALSO A FACTOR IN THIS...BUT LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
CANNOT BE IGNORED...SO SOME CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WARRANTED.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO RETURN TO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BRINGING ABOUT ANOTHER PERIOD OF MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM GRADUALLY DURING THE PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 57 78 59 74 58 / 0 5 5 20 20
WACO, TX 56 79 59 75 56 / 0 5 5 20 20
PARIS, TX 52 78 54 75 53 / 0 5 5 20 20
DENTON, TX 54 78 57 74 55 / 0 5 5 20 20
MCKINNEY, TX 53 78 57 74 57 / 0 5 5 20 20
DALLAS, TX 58 78 59 75 59 / 0 5 5 20 20
TERRELL, TX 55 78 56 75 57 / 0 5 5 20 20
CORSICANA, TX 57 79 59 76 56 / 0 5 5 20 20
TEMPLE, TX 55 78 54 75 55 / 0 5 5 20 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHGX 070347
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
947 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009
.UPDATE...
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10
CORRIDOR (MINUS HARRIS COUNTY) TO ACCOUNT FOR AN ENVIRONMENT THAT
IS PRIMED FOR THE FORMATION OF DENSE FOG. THE ONLY ISSUE THAT MAY
THWART THIS ADVISORY WOULD BE A THICKER HIGH CANOPY (SPIRALING UP
FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE`S UNSETTLED WEATHER) ULTIMATELY INHIBITING
RADIATIVE COOLING. SITES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-59 CORRIDOR (SW
COUNTIES) ARE ALREADY ON THE DECLINE AS VISBIES FALL BELOW 6SM.
18Z MODEL RUNS HAVE VARYING OPINIONS ON WHAT WILL EVENTUALLY EVOLVE
THROUGH MONDAY. RECENT RUNS HAVE A BROAD SFC CLOSED-OFF LOW/INV TROF
(EITHER MOVING UP FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OR THIS FEATURE MERGING
WITH TD IDA) TRENDING MORE EAST. LOWER QPF AS THE MAJORITY OF THE
RAINFALL WILL FALL WITHIN THIS LOW`S NE QUAD...OR ALONG AND EAST
OF LOUISIANA. QPF NUMBERS ARE ON THE DOWNTURN AND THE MENTION OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL HAS BEEN QUELLED. EASTERLY FETCH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF MAY BE REDUCED...AS WELL..ALTHOUGH MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING COULD OCCUR ACROSS MORE IKE-ERODED BEACH FRONTS.
ATTM...AN ONGOING COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT SEEMS TO BE THE BEST
MOVE. 31
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009/
AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AND AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL LEAD TO RADIATION FOG AT SEVERAL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. FOG
WILL BEGIN TO FORM BEFORE MIDNIGHT AT KLBX AND AFTER MIDNIGHT AT
INLAND LOCATIONS. THE MOST INTENSE FOG WILL OCCUR FROM 09Z-14Z
WITH SOME TAF SITES VSBY LOWERING TO 1/2 MILE OR LOWER (KCXO...KSGR
KLBX). OTHER TAF SITES VSBY WILL LOWER TO AROUND 1 MILE EXCEPT FOR
KGLS WHERE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO STRONGER WINDS. FOG WILL
LIFT AROUND 14Z AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL AFTER 15Z. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT EXCEPT EAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT KGLS.
AFTER 15Z WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009/
DISCUSSION...
AS EVIDENT BY THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN CU
COVERAGE THIS AFTN...THE AIRMASS IS CONTINUING TO MOISTEN AS THE
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS/DEEPENS. AND BECAUSE OF THIS WE SHOULD SEE
ANOTHER MORNING OF FOG ACROSS MOST OF SE TX TOMORROW. AS FOR THE
MUCH ANTICIPATED RAINS ON SUN/SUN NIGHT NOT TOO MANY CHANGES ARE
PLANNED TO THE GOING FCST EVEN AS MODELS CONTINUE TO WAFFLE WITH
SOME OF THE FINER DETAILS. TO WIT...THE LATEST GFS RUN KEEPS THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE FROM THIS CAMPECHE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
OF US (AS THE FEATURES MOVES NNEWD) WHILE THE ECMWF/NAM/CANADIAN
ALL MAINTAIN THEIR PREVIOUS TRACKS TOWARD EXTREME SERN TX/SABINE
PASS AREA. AS FOR THE UPPER LOW/TROF DEVELOPING OUT WEST...A FEW
TWEAKS NOTED WITH THE STRENGTH/TILT OF THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES TO
THE EAST NEAR US. MODELS NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE BUT THE OVERALL
TIMING APPEARS TO REMAIN THE SAME. SO AGAIN...NO CHANGES TO POPS
AND WINDS FOR THE LATE SAT THRU MON TIME FRAME. AS THE TROF AXIS
PASSES ON MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE WILL BEGIN AND SKIES WILL CLEAR BY
MON NIGHT. BENIGN WEATHER TO AGAIN DOMINATE THE AREA FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THROUGH MID-WEEK. 41
MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MODELS CONTINUE TO
FORECAST A DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. LATEST MODEL
RUNS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE HANDLING OF THE LOW...NOW
KEEPING IT WEAKER AND FURTHER OFFSHORE THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SAT AFTN THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING LOW AND THE HIGH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REACH CAUTION CRITERIA SAT
AFTN/NIGHT AND INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA BY SUN AFTN AS THE LOW LIFTS
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FT
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
TIDES ARE STILL FORECAST TO INCREASE ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST
BEGINNING SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY. TIDE LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO PEAK IN
THE 3.0-4.5 FT RANGE...MAINLY DURING THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE SUNDAY
NIGHT. OVERALL...THIS WILL BE A MINOR EVENT...WITH THE MAIN IMPACT
BEING ON THE VULNERABLE BOLIVAR PENINSULA. GIVEN THE MINOR NATURE
OF THE EVENT AND THE TIME FRAME STILL 48 HRS AWAY...WILL JUST
REISSUE COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT RATHER THAN GOING WITH A WATCH
YET. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST
OF THE WATERS...RESULTING IN A QUICK DROP IN TIDE LEVELS. ANOTHER
SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL PUSH DOWN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW
KEEPING A MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW AND ALLOWING SCEC/SCA TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 35
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS AND EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KTS. WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT EAST
WINDS...AND DRY AIR ALOFT...FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AGAIN
TONIGHT. EXPECT FOG TO IMPACT RURAL TERMINALS LIKE KLBX/KCXO/KSGR
BEGINNING 04-08Z. VISIBILITIES OF 1/4-1/2SM POSSIBLE AT THESE SITES
MAINLY 10-14Z. FOG WILL IMPACT THE LARGER AIRPORTS MAINLY 10-14Z
WITH VISIBILITIES OF 2-4SM POSSIBLE. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF ALL AREAS
BY 15Z SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS. 35
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 54 79 60 78 59 / 10 10 10 20 30
HOUSTON (IAH) 56 78 61 77 61 / 10 10 10 30 40
GALVESTON (GLS) 62 75 68 76 67 / 10 10 20 30 50
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...
JACKSON...MATAGORDA...WHARTON.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...31
000
FXUS64 KEWX 070323 AAA
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
923 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009
.UPDATE...
TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD CONTINUES TO DECREASE THIS EVENING. FOG
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY OVERNIGHT WITH DENSE FOG POSSIBLE ALONG AND
EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. WILL NOT ISSUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
ATTM. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS/FCST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009/
AVIATION...
EXPECT A REPEAT LIFR EVENT TONIGHT LIKE FRI MORNING...EXCEPT THIS
TIME OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. MODEL DATA INDICATE IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
DEVELOPING AROUND 07 UTC...THEN DOWN TO LIFR ROUGHLY BETWEEN 10
AND 15 UTC...THEN QUICKLY BACK THROUGH IFR AND MVFR TO VFR AROUND
17 UTC SAT. LOOKING AHEAD FOR THE 30 HR TAFS AT KSAT/KAUS...IFR
CIGS AND VSBYS COULD RETURN JUST AFTER THE END OF THE VALID PERIOD
AT NOV 8 06 UTC.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 76 57 80 59 75 / - 0 - 10 30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 75 52 81 56 76 / - 0 - 10 30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 75 53 81 57 75 / - 0 - - 40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 76 55 77 56 71 / 0 0 - 10 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 80 57 79 59 76 / 0 0 0 10 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 75 56 78 55 73 / - 0 - 10 30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 76 54 80 59 75 / - 0 - - 30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 77 54 80 56 75 / - 0 - 10 40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 77 55 80 59 78 / - 0 - - 40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 75 58 81 60 75 / - 0 - - 40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 76 56 80 60 75 / - 0 - - 40
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
13/26
000
FXUS64 KBRO 070311 CCA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
902 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES AND RUC80 500MB HEIGHT
ANALYSIS INDICATE A LOW/INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO THIS EVENING. MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A RIDGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS. FARTHER SOUTH...A BROAD AND WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS INDICATED ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND ADVECT TOWARDS THE LOWER TX COAST SAT AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS AS WELL
THE AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS SATURDAY. MAY SEE SOME SHOWERS APPROACH THE
COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA LATE SATURDAY AND WILL ADJUST POP AND
WEATHER GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES
EXPECTED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST GRIDS FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...MID AND HIGH LEVEL PATCHY CLDS CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN
OVER THE LOWER RGV AREA FROM THE GULF OF MEX. CURRENTLY THIS MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLD COVER FROM A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND T.D. IDA NOW HEADING FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CARIB
OCEAN IS DOMINATING MOST OF THE GULF AND WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE REBOUNDING MOISTURE LEVELS EVIDENT AT AND BELOW
THE 850 MB LEVEL WILL LIKELY COMBINE WITH THE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS TO
ALLOW SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG TO REFORM AROUND THE
REGION. WILL MENTION THIS IN TEMPO REMARKS AFTER 12Z TOMORROW WITH
THE DENSEST FOG MOST LIKELY AFFECTING THE MFE AREA. OTHER THAN THE
REDUCTIONS TO VSBYS FROM THE EARLY MORNING FOG VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW WITH A LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW
PREVAILING.
&&
.MARINE...CURRENTLY SWELLS AT BUOY020 CONTINUE TO BOUNCE BETWEEN 6
AND 7 FT WITH EASTERLY WINDS BLOWING AT AROUND 15 KNOTS. WILL WATCH
THE OBS OVER THE NEXT HOUR TO DECIDE WHETHER OR NOT TO LOWER THE SCA
FOR THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS. THE GULF SWELLS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
ELEVATED OR WILL STEADILY DECAY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE GULF
WATERS BUILDING UP THE SWELL STRENGTH. AS FOR THE COASTAL FLOOD
WATCH HAVE CHECKED THE LATEST OBSERVED TIDE MAGNITUDE AND DATA FROM
THE LOWER TX COASTLINE INDICATES THAT THE CURRENT OBSERVED TIDES ARE
ONLY ABOUT 0.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS THIS EVENING. SO SEE NO
REASON TO UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WARNING AT THIS TIME. WILL MAKE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN THE EXPECTED SWELL ACTIVITY IN THE SHORT TERM TO
REFLECT A LITTLE SLOWER INCREASE IN THE STRENGTH. OTHERWISE NO OTHER
CHANGES NEEDED TO THE CURRENT MARINE FORECAST WORDING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 130 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009/
CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY ENTERED THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AFTER SEVERAL
DAYS OF CRYSTAL CLEAR SKIES. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROF EXTENDING FM THE YUCATAN TO DEEP S TX
NOW...AS SFC LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDINESS TO ENSHROUD COASTAL AREAS NOW
THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY...WITH LOW AND MID LVL MSTR ARRIVING LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH -TSRA ENCROACHING COASTAL ZONES PRE- DAWN
SUNDAY AND BECMG MODERATE TSTMS BY SUNDAY MRNG. MODERATE TSTMS
WILL ONLY PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THRU 6 AM MONDAY...EXITING NE TO
HOU. AN H5 TROF DIGGING SOUTH TO JUST WEST OF THE RGV MONDAY MRNG
WILL SHUNT MSTR AND DYNAMICS EAST QUICKLY...WITH COOLER AND DRIER
AIR BEING USHERED INTO OUR REGION AS THIS TROF ALLOWS A WEAK CF TO
MOVE THRU THE REGION MONDAY WITH DWPTS DOWN TO THE MID 50S BY LATE
MONDAY. WED MRNG DWPTS AT 52 TO 55 DEG F WITH HIGHS NUDGING 80.
PLEASANT FALL WX FOLLOWS FROPA MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND WEAK NW FLOW AT THE SFC. JUST A QUICK HIT OF RAIN MAINLY COAST
SUNDAY THEN BACK TO WINTER TEXAN WX. LONG PD SWELLS FROM THIS GULF
DISTURBANCE HAVE NECESSITATED THE POSTING OF A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION
IDA...LOCATED INLAND ABOUT 55 MILES WEST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON
THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.
MARINE...THE 1 PM OBSERVATION FROM BUOY020 INDICATED WINDS WERE
EAST NORTHEAST AROUND 8 KTS GUSTING TO AROUND 12 KTS AND SEAS WERE
AROUND 6 FT WITH A PERIOD OF 8 SECONDS. MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
LOWER TX COASTAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY THE GULF WATERS...ARE
ANTICIPATED TO TAKE A TURN TWD THE WORSE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS. A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES INTO THE SE UNITED STATES THRU THE WEEKEND. THE
POSITION OF THIS HIGH WILL ALLOW A BROAD EASTERLY FETCH TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL GENERATE EASTERLY SWELL WHICH
WILL PUSH WWD INTO THE LOWER TX GULF WATERS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS
PROGGED TO LIFT NWD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE
WEEKEND AND INTO MON. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THIS LOW
WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS A RESULT...EASTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL AID IN BUILDING
SEAS FURTHER. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS
TDA WITH AN ADVISORY ALREADY POSTED. THESE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD WWD WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NEARSHORE ON
SAT...POSSIBLY SOONER DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE EASTERLY
SWELL.
THE EVENTUAL FUTURE OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE WEST GULF AND
WHAT BECOMES OF IDA IS STILL IN QUESTION. IDA IS FCST TO PUSH INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CARRIBEAN SEA LATER TDA. MDL GUIDANCE ON THE 2
SYSTEMS DEVIATE SOME ON THE OUTCOME BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN THAT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN UNSETTLED THRU AT LEAST THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS ARE LIKELY TO SEE
AGITATED MARINE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE.
AVIATION...THE 3 LOCAL TAF SITES ARE REPORTING VFR CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS EARLY THIS AFTN. SCT TO BKN CU FIELDS
OF AROUND 4 TO 5 KFT DEVELOPED BY MIDDAY AND WILL PERSIST THRU THE
AFTN HRS. A GRADUAL THINNING AND CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED TWD LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVE. LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THE REST
OF
TDA AND THRU SAT MRNG. INCLUDED SOME TEMPO FOG TWD SUNRISE SAT MRNG
FOR HRL AND MFE IN THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS IF FOG MATERIALIZES. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU THE NEXT 24 HRS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 64 83 68 78 / 0 10 30 50
BROWNSVILLE 64 84 66 79 / 0 10 30 50
HARLINGEN 62 84 65 80 / 0 10 20 50
MCALLEN 62 86 65 82 / 0 10 10 30
RIO GRANDE CITY 64 86 63 83 / 0 10 10 20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 66 81 70 77 / 0 10 30 60
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR TXZ251-256-257.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE
61/60
000
FXUS64 KBRO 070302
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
902 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES AND RUC80 500MB HEIGHT
ANALYSIS INDICATE A LOW/INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO THIS EVENING. MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A RIDGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS. FARTHER SOUTH...A BROAD AND WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS INDICATED ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND ADVECT TOWARDS THE LOWER TX COAST SAT AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS AS WELL
THE AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS SATURDAY. MAY SEE SOME SHOWERS APPROACH THE
COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA LATE SATURDAY AND WILL ADJUST POP AND
WEATHER GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES
EXPECTED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST GRIDS FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...MID AND HIGH LEVEL PATCHY CLDS CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN
OVER THE LOWER RGV AREA FROM THE GULF OF MEX. CURRENTLY THIS MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLD COVER FROM A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND T.D. IDA NOW HEADING FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CARIB
OCEAN IS DOMINATING MOST OF THE GULF AND WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE REBOUNDING MOISTURE LEVELS EVIDENT AT AND BELOW
THE 850 MB LEVEL WILL LIKELY COMBINE WITH THE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS TO
ALLOW SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG TO REFORM AROUND THE
REGION. WILL MENTION THIS IN TEMPO REMARKS AFTER 12Z TOMORROW WITH
THE DENSEST FOG MOST LIKELY AFFECTING THE MFE AREA. OTHER THAN THE
REDUCTIONS TO VSBYS FROM THE EARLY MORNING FOG VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW WITH A LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW
PREVAILING.
&&
.MARINE...CURRENTLY SWELLS AT BUOY020 CONTINUE TO BOUNCE BETWEEN 6
AND 7 FT WITH EASTERLY WINDS BLOWING AT AROUND 15 KNOTS. WILL WATCH
THE OBS OVER THE NEXT HOUR TO DECIDE WHETHER OR NOT TO LOWER THE SCA
FOR THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS. THE GULF SWELLS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
ELEVATED OR WILL STEADILY DECAY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE GULF
WATERS BUILDING UP THE SWELL STRENGTH. AS FOR THE COASTAL FLOOD
WATCH HAVE CHECKED THE LATEST OBSERVED TIDE MAGNITUDE AND DATA FROM
THE LOWER TX COASTLINE INDICATES THAT THE CURRENT OBSERVED TIDES ARE
ONLY ABOUT 0.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS THIS EVENING. SO SEE NO
REASON TO UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WARNING AT THIS TIME. WILL MAKE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN THE EXPECTED SWELL ACTIVITY IN THE SHORT TERM TO
REFLECT A LITTLE SLOWER INCREASE IN THE STRENGTH. OTHERWISE NO OTHER
CHANGES NEEDED TO THE CURRENT MARINE FORECAST WORDING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 130 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009/
CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY ENTERED THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AFTER SEVERAL
DAYS OF CRYSTAL CLEAR SKIES. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROF EXTENDING FM THE YUCATAN TO DEEP S TX
NOW...AS SFC LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDINESS TO ENSHROUD COASTAL AREAS NOW
THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY...WITH LOW AND MID LVL MSTR ARRIVING LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH -TSRA ENCROACHING COASTAL ZONES PRE- DAWN
SUNDAY AND BECMG MODERATE TSTMS BY SUNDAY MRNG. MODERATE TSTMS
WILL ONLY PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THRU 6 AM MONDAY...EXITING NE TO
HOU. AN H5 TROF DIGGING SOUTH TO JUST WEST OF THE RGV MONDAY MRNG
WILL SHUNT MSTR AND DYNAMICS EAST QUICKLY...WITH COOLER AND DRIER
AIR BEING USHERED INTO OUR REGION AS THIS TROF ALLOWS A WEAK CF TO
MOVE THRU THE REGION MONDAY WITH DWPTS DOWN TO THE MID 50S BY LATE
MONDAY. WED MRNG DWPTS AT 52 TO 55 DEG F WITH HIGHS NUDGING 80.
PLEASANT FALL WX FOLLOWS FROPA MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND WEAK NW FLOW AT THE SFC. JUST A QUICK HIT OF RAIN MAINLY COAST
SUNDAY THEN BACK TO WINTER TEXAN WX. LONG PD SWELLS FROM THIS GULF
DISTURBANCE HAVE NECESSITATED THE POSTING OF A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION
IDA...LOCATED INLAND ABOUT 55 MILES WEST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON
THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.
MARINE...THE 1 PM OBSERVATION FROM BUOY020 INDICATED WINDS WERE
EAST NORTHEAST AROUND 8 KTS GUSTING TO AROUND 12 KTS AND SEAS WERE
AROUND 6 FT WITH A PERIOD OF 8 SECONDS. MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
LOWER TX COASTAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY THE GULF WATERS...ARE
ANTICIPATED TO TAKE A TURN TWD THE WORSE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS. A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES INTO THE SE UNITED STATES THRU THE WEEKEND. THE
POSITION OF THIS HIGH WILL ALLOW A BROAD EASTERLY FETCH TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL GENERATE EASTERLY SWELL WHICH
WILL PUSH WWD INTO THE LOWER TX GULF WATERS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS
PROGGED TO LIFT NWD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE
WEEKEND AND INTO MON. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THIS LOW
WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS A RESULT...EASTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL AID IN BUILDING
SEAS FURTHER. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS
TDA WITH AN ADVISORY ALREADY POSTED. THESE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD WWD WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NEARSHORE ON
SAT...POSSIBLY SOONER DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE EASTERLY
SWELL.
THE EVENTUAL FUTURE OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE WEST GULF AND
WHAT BECOMES OF IDA IS STILL IN QUESTION. IDA IS FCST TO PUSH INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CARRIBEAN SEA LATER TDA. MDL GUIDANCE ON THE 2
SYSTEMS DEVIATE SOME ON THE OUTCOME BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN THAT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN UNSETTLED THRU AT LEAST THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS ARE LIKELY TO SEE
AGITATED MARINE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE.
AVIATION...THE 3 LOCAL TAF SITES ARE REPORTING VFR CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS EARLY THIS AFTN. SCT TO BKN CU FIELDS
OF AROUND 4 TO 5 KFT DEVELOPED BY MIDDAY AND WILL PERSIST THRU THE
AFTN HRS. A GRADUAL THINNING AND CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED TWD LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVE. LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THE REST
OF
TDA AND THRU SAT MRNG. INCLUDED SOME TEMPO FOG TWD SUNRISE SAT MRNG
FOR HRL AND MFE IN THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS IF FOG MATERIALIZES. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU THE NEXT 24 HRS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 64 83 68 78 / 0 10 30 50
BROWNSVILLE 64 84 66 79 / 0 10 30 50
HARLINGEN 62 84 65 80 / 0 10 20 50
MCALLEN 62 86 65 82 / 0 10 10 30
RIO GRANDE CITY 64 86 63 83 / 0 10 10 20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 66 81 70 77 / 0 10 30 60
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR TXZ251-256-257.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR GMZ170-175.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE
61/60
000
FXUS64 KCRP 070245
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
845 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009
.DISCUSSION...AS MENTIONED IN AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...FOG
CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TONIGHT. AM CONFIDENT FOG WILL
DVLP. HOWEVER...JUST HOW DENSE OR WIDESPREAD IS STILL UNCERTAIN
DUE TO CIRRUS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND DUE TO
LOW LEVEL WINDS BEING SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THIS MORNING`S WINDS.
SFC WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RADIATIONAL FOG BUT
THE UNCERTAINTY LIES IN JUST HOW DENSE THE FOG BECOMES. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY POSSIBLE
LATER TONIGHT. FOR NOW NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FCST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR THE TAF PERIOD IS THE
ONSET AND INTENSITY OF IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
TONIGHT. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE CURRENTLY LOWER THAN 24 HOURS
AGO...TYPICALLY MEANING A EARLIER ONSET OF RADIATIONAL FOG/MIST.
INLAND AREAS SHOULD SEE DENSE FOG DEVELOP AROUND 06Z FOR KVCT AND
AROUND 10Z FOR KALI. MVFR BCFG IS EXPECTED FOR KCRP SINCE THE WIND
COMPONENT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND NORTHEASTERLY...ADVECTING
RELATIVELY WARMER BAY WATER AIR ACROSS KCRP AND PREVENTING A GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING ENVIRONMENT. KLRD SHOULD SEE PRIMARILY IFR CIGS
BETWEEN 11Z-15Z DUE TO INCREASING LLJ DYNAMICS. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED ENOUGH TO ONLY GENERATE MVFR VSBYS ALONG THE
RIO GRANDE DURING THE SAME PERIOD. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 14Z-15Z AREAWIDE...THEN PREVAIL ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS THAT HAS PROVIDED THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF CHAMBER OF COMMERCE
WEATHER DAYS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS
WILL ALLOW AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
TEMPS. ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW DOES INCREASE SLIGHTLY
TONIGHT...STILL LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY-AREAS OF DENSE FOG FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS
WITH WORSE CONDITIONS LIKELY IN NERN AREAS WHICH REMAINS MOST
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE TONIGHT. LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOC
W/ THE BAJA LOW SEEN ON WV IMAGERY WILL ARRIVE EARLY SUN MORNING.
LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL FEED NORTH AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM TO
PROVIDE LOW RAIN CHCS AFTER 6Z SUN. WILL SHOW 10-30 POPS FAVORING
THE SRN COASTAL BEND AND SRN GULF ZONES DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
THE SFC LOW ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING NORTH
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF...BUT IS MORE OF A FACTOR IN THE LONG TERM
PERIODS AND IS DESCRIBED BELOW. POSSIBILITIES OF MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ASSOC W/ THIS SYSTEM ARE INCLUDED IN A COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...UPPER TROUGH PROGGED
TO CROSS MEXICO AND TRACK DIRECTLY ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS LATE SUNDAY.
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE EARLY SUNDAY AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SHOWERS
SUNDAY MORNING FOR OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE COASTAL BEND. THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH AND COUPLED JET STRUCTURE AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL DRAW A SURFACE DISTURBANCE
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WEST GULF...SEPARATE FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE IDA
WHICH IS PROGGED TO TRACK OVER THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN GULF TO
FLORIDA. THERE IS CONCERN THAT THE NON TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL
FOCUS MOST OF THE RAIN...AND HEAVY RAIN...ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF
SIMILAR TO THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF PROGS. HOWEVER...LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER UP TO 1.8 INCHES ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
MEETING THE 12 HOURS OF DYNAMICS FROM THE APPROACHING SOUTHERN
STREAM UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BRING ADDITIONAL AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS FROM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MID
LEVEL WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHERLY...FOLLOWED BY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING
TO NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND INCREASING ON MONDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER
WITH THE TROUGH AXIS SUNDAY NIGHT BUT SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ON MONDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND
NAM KEEP SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON MONDAY WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS...SO ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WOULD OCCUR ON
MONDAY. THE 12Z NAM WAS SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSIVE OF THE PATTERN
WHICH DELAYS THE STRONGER NORTH WINDS PROGGED ON THE GFS AND ECMWF
FOR MONDAY. THIS WILL FACTOR INTO A LONGER PERIOD OF STRONGER
NORTHEASTERLY FOR COASTAL WATER LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THE 18Z NAM RUN APPEARS TO BE CLOSER TO THE GFS FOR MODERATE
NORTHEAST FLOW MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AIR MASS STARTS TO DRY MONDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IN NORTHEAST FLOW ALONG THE COAST. SIGNIFICANT DRYING IN THE
NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY WITH WEAKENING NORTHERLY
FLOW. AIR MASS TEMPERATURES CHANGE LITTLE EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND
THE TROUGH BUT A COUPLE DEGREES OF COOLING NOTED BY WEDNESDAY...
THEN SLIGHT WARMING AGAIN. THIS SHOULD KEEPS MAX TEMPS AROUND
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AND LOW TEMPERATURES COOLING THROUGH
THURSDAY DUE TO DRY AIR MASS AND DECREASING WIND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 59 82 66 79 63 / 0 10 20 60 30
VICTORIA 55 82 62 76 60 / 0 10 10 50 30
LAREDO 61 88 64 80 63 / 0 0 10 40 10
ALICE 57 84 64 79 62 / 0 10 20 50 30
ROCKPORT 63 80 67 78 66 / 0 10 20 60 30
COTULLA 54 83 61 78 59 / 0 0 10 40 20
KINGSVILLE 57 82 66 80 62 / 0 10 30 50 30
NAVY CORPUS 64 80 69 78 66 / 0 10 20 60 30
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TE/81...UPDATE
TM/95...AVIATION
000
FXUS64 KSJT 070206
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
806 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009
.UPDATE...
THE MAIN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO TWEAK LOWS TONIGHT IN SOME
AREAS. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE VALLEYS ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR DECOUPLED LAST NIGHT...AND
SONORA DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 30S WHILE JUNCTION DIPPED DOWN INTO
THE LOWER 40S. IN CONTRAST...THE BIG COUNTRY SITES OF KABI AND
KSWW HAD LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S DUE TO THE PERSISTENT SOUTH
WINDS OFF THE TERRAIN TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE SITES.
THE 00Z NAM FORECASTS ANOTHER NIGHT OF PERSISTENT 5 TO 15 MPH
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WILL BE
INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND THIS WILL
AFFECT LOWS DOWN ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR. NEVERTHELESS...I REDUCED
LOWS AT SONORA AND BROWNWOOD WHICH TEND TO BE THE COOL SPOTS AND
RAISED LOWS SLIGHTLY AT SWEETWATER WHICH TENDS TO BE THE WARM SPOT
WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ALL NIGHT.
THE NAM ALSO FORECASTS LOW CIGS TO SPREAD NORTHWEST INTO THE FCST
AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE CURRENT SKY GRIDS
HANDLE THIS WELL AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES.
LACY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION.
AVIATION...
WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND REGIME...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL
OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AND ADVECTION INTO SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WITH MVFR BASES AND CEILINGS.
HAVE A TEMPO BKN SKY CONDITION INCLUDED IN THE TAFS FOR KJCT...
KSOA...AND KBBD. SOUTH WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...AND LESS THAN 10 KT
FARTHER SOUTH. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY 10-15 KT ON
SATURDAY...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT BY AFTERNOON AT KABI AND
KSJT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009/
SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE AREA...BRINGING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARDS THE BAJA PENINSULA. A LEE
SIDE TROUGH IS BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS FOR TODAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURNING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING MORNING
STRATUS ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH
MID MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL RESULT IS SLIGHTLY WARMER MORNING LOWS FOR SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
WITH ISOLATED UPPER 40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. AFTERNOON HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWS 80S ONCE AGAIN ON
SATURDAY.
LONG TERM...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUN WITH BEST
MOISTURE AND LIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS. WILL ADD ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THIS AREA DURING THE DAY BUT EXPECT MAINLY AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WITH THE SYSTEM. TEMPS A BIT COOLER ON SUN
WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. MODELS
NOW A BIT SLOWER IN MOVING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATING FRONTAL PASSAGE MON
NIGHT. MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL BE DRY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH THE
ONLY AVAILABLE MOISTURE CONFINED TO LOW LEVELS. KEPT A SLIGHT POP
GOING MON NIGHT THEN DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE WITH
SFC RIDGE OVER THE AREA. SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS EAST INTO THE
PLAINS TUE NIGHT AND WED AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA
THROUGH FRI WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING AND TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL
VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 56 79 54 73 54 / 0 0 10 10 10
SAN ANGELO 54 79 54 73 53 / 0 0 10 10 10
JUNCTION 50 78 54 72 52 / 0 0 10 10 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KFWD 070024 AAA
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
624 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009
.AVIATION...
A 30 TO 35 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL START TO TAP SOME MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN IFR/MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS...AND SOME MVFR STRATUS SPREADING NORTHEAST
INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES BY 10Z. HAVE
JUST PUT IN SCATTERED FOR THE METROPLEX TAFS...AS IT LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL TAKE ANOTHER NIGHT BEFORE WE GET MVFR CEILINGS FOR THOSE TAF
SITES.
58
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009/
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...FAIR WEATHER LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS MORNING A LOW LEVEL STRATUS
DECK HAD DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEASTERN TX...AND WITH ANOTHER 36 TO
48 HRS OF SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED ACRS NORTH TX...FEEL THAT
OVERNIGHT STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WILL CREEP FURTHER NORTH TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE STRATUS DECK
TONIGHT IS FAIRLY SHALLOW...SO REGARDLESS OF HOW FAR NORTH IT
PUSHES A FEW HOURS OF SUNSHINE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE IT TO
DISSIPATE BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS. TOMORROW NIGHT THE STRATUS
DECK LOOKS TO MOVE IN EARLIER AND BE SOMEWHAT THICKER...SO STRATUS
MAY NOT MIX OUT UNTIL THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HRS. WITH THIS IN
MIND...DESPITE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY COOLER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THRU CENTRAL TX AND TOWARDS THE
CWA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH ONLY SHALLOW MOISTURE IN PLACE AND A
SFC LOW CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF...KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
SPREAD POPS TO COVER ALL OF NORTH TX AS LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT IS FAIRLY STRONG OVER THE ENTIRE CWA...HOWEVER LIMITED
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND LOW LVL FLOW BACKING AS THIS TROUGH
APPROACHES SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE OF ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
MANAGES TO DEVELOP. IF THE LOW LVL FLOW DOES NOT BACK...MEANING
THE SFC LOW/INVERTED TROUGH DOES NOT SET UP OVER THE WESTERN GULF
AS EXPECTED...DEEPER GULF MOISTURE MAY MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE
CWA AND ENHANCE PRECIP CHANCES. FOR NOW HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE
HAS ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES NORTHEAST OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
SUBSIDENCE SPREADS OVER THE CWA FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS
FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A COLD/PACIFIC FRONT THROUGH NORTH
TX AS THIS FEATURE EXITS THE REGION...SO KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE CONTINUING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...DO NOT THINK
THAT MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. LIMITED MOISTURE
IS ALSO A FACTOR IN THIS...BUT LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
CANNOT BE IGNORED...SO SOME CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WARRANTED.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO RETURN TO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BRINGING ABOUT ANOTHER PERIOD OF MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM GRADUALLY DURING THE PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 57 78 59 74 58 / 0 5 5 20 20
WACO, TX 56 79 59 75 56 / 0 5 5 20 20
PARIS, TX 52 78 54 75 53 / 0 5 5 20 20
DENTON, TX 54 78 57 74 55 / 0 5 5 20 20
MCKINNEY, TX 53 78 57 74 57 / 0 5 5 20 20
DALLAS, TX 58 78 59 75 59 / 0 5 5 20 20
TERRELL, TX 55 78 56 75 57 / 0 5 5 20 20
CORSICANA, TX 57 79 59 76 56 / 0 5 5 20 20
TEMPLE, TX 55 78 54 75 55 / 0 5 5 20 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
58/82
000
FXUS64 KEWX 070013
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
613 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009
.AVIATION...
EXPECT A REPEAT LIFR EVENT TONIGHT LIKE FRI MORNING...EXCEPT THIS
TIME OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. MODEL DATA INDICATE IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
DEVELOPING AROUND 07 UTC...THEN DOWN TO LIFR ROUGHLY BETWEEN 10
AND 15 UTC...THEN QUICKLY BACK THROUGH IFR AND MVFR TO VFR AROUND
17 UTC SAT. LOOKING AHEAD FOR THE 30 HR TAFS AT KSAT/KAUS...IFR
CIGS AND VSBYS COULD RETURN JUST AFTER THE END OF THE VALID PERIOD
AT NOV 8 06 UTC.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 57 80 59 75 61 / 0 - 10 30 30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 52 81 56 76 60 / 0 - 10 30 30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 53 81 57 75 59 / 0 - - 40 30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 55 77 56 71 57 / 0 - 10 20 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 57 79 59 76 59 / 0 0 10 20 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 56 78 55 73 60 / 0 - 10 30 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 54 80 59 75 59 / 0 - - 30 30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 54 80 56 75 61 / 0 - 10 40 30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 55 80 59 78 60 / 0 - - 40 30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 58 81 60 75 61 / 0 - - 40 30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 56 80 60 75 60 / 0 - - 40 30
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
13/26
000
FXUS64 KCRP 062356 AAA
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
556 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR THE TAF PERIOD IS THE
ONSET AND INTENSITY OF IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
TONIGHT. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE CURRENTLY LOWER THAN 24 HOURS
AGO...TYPICALLY MEANING A EARLIER ONSET OF RADIATIONAL FOG/MIST.
INLAND AREAS SHOULD SEE DENSE FOG DEVELOP AROUND 06Z FOR KVCT AND
AROUND 10Z FOR KALI. MVFR BCFG IS EXPECTED FOR KCRP SINCE THE WIND
COMPONENT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND NORTHEASTERLY...ADVECTING
RELATIVELY WARMER BAY WATER AIR ACROSS KCRP AND PREVENTING A GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING ENVIRONMENT. KLRD SHOULD SEE PRIMARILY IFR CIGS
BETWEEN 11Z-15Z DUE TO INCREASING LLJ DYNAMICS. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED ENOUGH TO ONLY GENERATE MVFR VSBYS ALONG THE
RIO GRANDE DURING THE SAME PERIOD. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 14Z-15Z AREAWIDE...THEN PREVAIL ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS THAT HAS PROVIDED THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF CHAMBER OF COMMERCE
WEATHER DAYS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS
WILL ALLOW AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
TEMPS. ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW DOES INCREASE SLIGHTLY
TONIGHT...STILL LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY-AREAS OF DENSE FOG FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS
WITH WORSE CONDITIONS LIKELY IN NERN AREAS WHICH REMAINS MOST
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE TONIGHT. LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOC
W/ THE BAJA LOW SEEN ON WV IMAGERY WILL ARRIVE EARLY SUN MORNING.
LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL FEED NORTH AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM TO
PROVIDE LOW RAIN CHCS AFTER 6Z SUN. WILL SHOW 10-30 POPS FAVORING
THE SRN COASTAL BEND AND SRN GULF ZONES DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
THE SFC LOW ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING NORTH
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF...BUT IS MORE OF A FACTOR IN THE LONG TERM
PERIODS AND IS DESCRIBED BELOW. POSSIBILITIES OF MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ASSOC W/ THIS SYSTEM ARE INCLUDED IN A COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...UPPER TROUGH PROGGED
TO CROSS MEXICO AND TRACK DIRECTLY ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS LATE SUNDAY.
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE EARLY SUNDAY AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SHOWERS
SUNDAY MORNING FOR OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE COASTAL BEND. THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH AND COUPLED JET STRUCTURE AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL DRAW A SURFACE DISTURBANCE
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WEST GULF...SEPARATE FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE IDA
WHICH IS PROGGED TO TRACK OVER THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN GULF TO
FLORIDA. THERE IS CONCERN THAT THE NON TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL
FOCUS MOST OF THE RAIN...AND HEAVY RAIN...ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF
SIMILAR TO THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF PROGS. HOWEVER...LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER UP TO 1.8 INCHES ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
MEETING THE 12 HOURS OF DYNAMICS FROM THE APPROACHING SOUTHERN
STREAM UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BRING ADDITIONAL AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS FROM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MID
LEVEL WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHERLY...FOLLOWED BY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING
TO NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND INCREASING ON MONDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER
WITH THE TROUGH AXIS SUNDAY NIGHT BUT SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ON MONDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND
NAM KEEP SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON MONDAY WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS...SO ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WOULD OCCUR ON
MONDAY. THE 12Z NAM WAS SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSIVE OF THE PATTERN
WHICH DELAYS THE STRONGER NORTH WINDS PROGGED ON THE GFS AND ECMWF
FOR MONDAY. THIS WILL FACTOR INTO A LONGER PERIOD OF STRONGER
NORTHEASTERLY FOR COASTAL WATER LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THE 18Z NAM RUN APPEARS TO BE CLOSER TO THE GFS FOR MODERATE
NORTHEAST FLOW MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AIR MASS STARTS TO DRY MONDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IN NORTHEAST FLOW ALONG THE COAST. SIGNIFICANT DRYING IN THE
NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY WITH WEAKENING NORTHERLY
FLOW. AIR MASS TEMPERATURES CHANGE LITTLE EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND
THE TROUGH BUT A COUPLE DEGREES OF COOLING NOTED BY WEDNESDAY...
THEN SLIGHT WARMING AGAIN. THIS SHOULD KEEPS MAX TEMPS AROUND
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AND LOW TEMPERATURES COOLING THROUGH
THURSDAY DUE TO DRY AIR MASS AND DECREASING WIND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 59 82 66 79 63 / 0 10 20 60 30
VICTORIA 55 82 62 76 60 / 0 10 10 50 30
LAREDO 61 88 64 80 63 / 0 0 10 40 10
ALICE 57 84 64 79 62 / 0 10 20 50 30
ROCKPORT 63 80 67 78 66 / 0 10 20 60 30
COTULLA 54 83 61 78 59 / 0 0 10 40 20
KINGSVILLE 57 82 66 80 62 / 0 10 30 50 30
NAVY CORPUS 64 80 69 78 66 / 0 10 20 60 30
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TM/95...AVIATION
000
FXUS64 KSJT 062352 AAA
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
552 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...
WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND REGIME...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL
OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AND ADVECTION INTO SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WITH MVFR BASES AND CEILINGS.
HAVE A TEMPO BKN SKY CONDITION INCLUDED IN THE TAFS FOR KJCT...
KSOA...AND KBBD. SOUTH WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...AND LESS THAN 10 KT
FARTHER SOUTH. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY 10-15 KT ON
SATURDAY...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT BY AFTERNOON AT KABI AND
KSJT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009/
SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE AREA...BRINGING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARDS THE BAJA PENINSULA. A LEE
SIDE TROUGH IS BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS FOR TODAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURNING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING MORNING
STRATUS ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH
MID MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL RESULT IS SLIGHTLY WARMER MORNING LOWS FOR SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
WITH ISOLATED UPPER 40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. AFTERNOON HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWS 80S ONCE AGAIN ON
SATURDAY.
LONG TERM...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUN WITH BEST
MOISTURE AND LIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS. WILL ADD ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THIS AREA DURING THE DAY BUT EXPECT MAINLY AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WITH THE SYSTEM. TEMPS A BIT COOLER ON SUN
WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. MODELS
NOW A BIT SLOWER IN MOVING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATING FRONTAL PASSAGE MON
NIGHT. MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL BE DRY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH THE
ONLY AVAILABLE MOISTURE CONFINED TO LOW LEVELS. KEPT A SLIGHT POP
GOING MON NIGHT THEN DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE WITH
SFC RIDGE OVER THE AREA. SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS EAST INTO THE
PLAINS TUE NIGHT AND WED AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA
THROUGH FRI WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING AND TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL
VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 55 79 54 73 54 / 0 0 10 10 10
SAN ANGELO 53 79 54 73 53 / 0 0 10 10 10
JUNCTION 48 78 54 72 52 / 0 0 10 10 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHGX 062348
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
548 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009
.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AND AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL LEAD TO RADIATION FOG AT SEVERAL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. FOG
WILL BEGIN TO FORM BEFORE MIDNIGHT AT KLBX AND AFTER MIDNIGHT AT
INLAND LOCATIONS. THE MOST INTENSE FOG WILL OCCUR FROM 09Z-14Z
WITH SOME TAF SITES VSBY LOWERING TO 1/2 MILE OR LOWER (KCXO...KSGR
KLBX). OTHER TAF SITES VSBY WILL LOWER TO AROUND 1 MILE EXCEPT FOR
KGLS WHERE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO STRONGER WINDS. FOG WILL
LIFT AROUND 14Z AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL AFTER 15Z. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT EXCEPT EAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT KGLS.
AFTER 15Z WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009/
DISCUSSION...
AS EVIDENT BY THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN CU
COVERAGE THIS AFTN...THE AIRMASS IS CONTINUING TO MOISTEN AS THE
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS/DEEPENS. AND BECAUSE OF THIS WE SHOULD SEE
ANOTHER MORNING OF FOG ACROSS MOST OF SE TX TOMORROW. AS FOR THE
MUCH ANTICIPATED RAINS ON SUN/SUN NIGHT NOT TOO MANY CHANGES ARE
PLANNED TO THE GOING FCST EVEN AS MODELS CONTINUE TO WAFFLE WITH
SOME OF THE FINER DETAILS. TO WIT...THE LATEST GFS RUN KEEPS THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE FROM THIS CAMPECHE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
OF US (AS THE FEATURES MOVES NNEWD) WHILE THE ECMWF/NAM/CANADIAN
ALL MAINTAIN THEIR PREVIOUS TRACKS TOWARD EXTREME SERN TX/SABINE
PASS AREA. AS FOR THE UPPER LOW/TROF DEVELOPING OUT WEST...A FEW
TWEAKS NOTED WITH THE STRENGTH/TILT OF THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES TO
THE EAST NEAR US. MODELS NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE BUT THE OVERALL
TIMING APPEARS TO REMAIN THE SAME. SO AGAIN...NO CHANGES TO POPS
AND WINDS FOR THE LATE SAT THRU MON TIME FRAME. AS THE TROF AXIS
PASSES ON MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE WILL BEGIN AND SKIES WILL CLEAR BY
MON NIGHT. BENIGN WEATHER TO AGAIN DOMINATE THE AREA FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THROUGH MID-WEEK. 41
MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MODELS CONTINUE TO
FORECAST A DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. LATEST MODEL
RUNS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE HANDLING OF THE LOW...NOW
KEEPING IT WEAKER AND FURTHER OFFSHORE THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SAT AFTN THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING LOW AND THE HIGH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REACH CAUTION CRITERIA SAT
AFTN/NIGHT AND INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA BY SUN AFTN AS THE LOW LIFTS
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FT
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
TIDES ARE STILL FORECAST TO INCREASE ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST
BEGINNING SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY. TIDE LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO PEAK IN
THE 3.0-4.5 FT RANGE...MAINLY DURING THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE SUNDAY
NIGHT. OVERALL...THIS WILL BE A MINOR EVENT...WITH THE MAIN IMPACT
BEING ON THE VULNERABLE BOLIVAR PENINSULA. GIVEN THE MINOR NATURE
OF THE EVENT AND THE TIME FRAME STILL 48 HRS AWAY...WILL JUST
REISSUE COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT RATHER THAN GOING WITH A WATCH
YET. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST
OF THE WATERS...RESULTING IN A QUICK DROP IN TIDE LEVELS. ANOTHER
SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL PUSH DOWN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW
KEEPING A MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW AND ALLOWING SCEC/SCA TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 35
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS AND EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KTS. WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT EAST
WINDS...AND DRY AIR ALOFT...FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AGAIN
TONIGHT. EXPECT FOG TO IMPACT RURAL TERMINALS LIKE KLBX/KCXO/KSGR
BEGINNING 04-08Z. VISIBILITIES OF 1/4-1/2SM POSSIBLE AT THESE SITES
MAINLY 10-14Z. FOG WILL IMPACT THE LARGER AIRPORTS MAINLY 10-14Z
WITH VISIBILITIES OF 2-4SM POSSIBLE. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF ALL AREAS
BY 15Z SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS. 35
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 54 79 60 78 59 / 10 10 10 20 30
HOUSTON (IAH) 56 79 61 77 61 / 10 10 10 30 40
GALVESTON (GLS) 67 78 68 76 67 / 10 10 20 30 50
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION/MARINE...34
000
FXUS64 KMAF 062347
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
547 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A SURFACE TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A LOW
LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME WIND
SPEEDS AT OR ABOVE 12KTS AT KMAF...KINK AND KFST IN THE 03Z-10Z
TIME FRAME. THEREAFTER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL ENOUGH TO
STRE | 
