[top]
000
FXUS65 KSLC 082251
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
350 PM MST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEGINNING MONDAY WILL
PRODUCE A WARMING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL
REACH THE GREAT BASIN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER THE GREAT
BASIN THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE...A GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. THE
FLOW WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY BEGINNING TOMORROW AS A RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS COLORADO. WARM ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
AREA...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOUTH
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WHICH
WILL IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
THE 12Z MODELS RUNS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS STORM.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM
REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW DUE TO RECENT RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES WITH
ALL MODELS. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARDS A GFS/EC BLEND...WHICH HAS
THE COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTHERN UTAH LATE THURSDAY AND PUSHING
THROUGH SOUTHERN UTAH ON FRIDAY. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THERE WILL
BE MUCH PRECIPITATION IN THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...BUT HAVE LEFT
LOW POPS IN FOR LATE WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTIES IN
TIMING. MODELS INDICATE A DECENT BAND OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING
DUE TO FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY BEFORE THE STORM EXITS
THE AREA SATURDAY.
SNOW LEVELS SHOULD LOWER TO THE VALLEY FLOORS OF NORTHERN UTAH BY
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND OVER THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN UTAH FRIDAY AS A COLD AIRMASS WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT. IF THE STORM DEVELOPS PER THE GFS
SOLUTION...ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE VALLEYS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO MAKE A REASONABLE
SNOW AMOUNT FORECAST...THE TREND TOWARDS MORE WINTER-LIKE CONDITIONS
SEEM LIKE A GOOD BET FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH
ABOUT 03 TO 04Z AND THEN SHIFT TO THE TYPICAL SOUTHEAST DRAINAGE.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...CHENG
AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)
000
FXUS65 KSLC 081651
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
950 AM MST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEGINNING MONDAY WILL
PRODUCE A WARMING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL
REACH THE GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THESE WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK AND
WILL PRODUCE LITTLE MORE THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAYS HIGHS DUE TO THE COLD FRONT
WHICH PUSHED THROUGH OVERNIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TOMORROW AND QUICKLY
SHIFT EAST. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD STORM SYSTEM WHICH
WILL IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...RECENT MODELS HAVE SHOWN SIGNIFICANT SPREAD REGARDING THE
TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...SO MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE TO SORT OUT THE DETAILS OF THIS STORM.
NO UPDATES EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH
ABOUT 03 TO 04Z AND THEN SHIFT TO THE TYPICAL SOUTHEAST DRAINAGE.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...CHENG
AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)
000
FXUS65 KSLC 081211
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
511 AM MST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEGINNING MONDAY WILL
PRODUCE A WARMING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM
WILL REACH THE GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE COMING WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...ZONAL FLOW PATTERN CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WRN CONUS
WILL BUCKLE EARLY IN THE COMING WEEK AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA. THE RESULTANT DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL BUILD ALONG
THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES EARLY IN THE WEEK...THEN DRIFT EAST INTO
PLAINS STATES. INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
RIDGE WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND ACROSS UTAH WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WRN VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS MIDWEEK.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAVING A TERRIBLE TIME GETTING A HANDLE ON
THE GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO THE WRN CONUS LATE IN
THE WEEK. DETAILS ASIDE...THE GENERAL TREND IN THE GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN TO HOLD OFF BRINGING A RATHER COLD CORE TROUGH INTO UTAH
UNTIL LATE THURSDAY AT THE SOONEST...THEN DRAGGING THE SYSTEM
THROUGH FRIDAY/SATURDAY. POOR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY MAKES TIMING
AND INTENSITY OF PRECIP DIFFICULT AT BEST. FOR NOW WILL TREND
TEMPS DOWN LATE IN THE FORECAST WITH POPS A BIT HIGHER THAN
CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID-NOVEMBER.
&&
.AVIATION...LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL
ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH BACK TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 16Z-18Z.
SCATTERED CLOUDS BETWEEN 8-12 KFT AGL ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...CONGER
AVIATION...SCHOENING
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)
000
FXUS65 KSLC 080427
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
927 PM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE LATE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...WEAK TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO WESTERN NEVADA THIS
EVENING...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY NEAR A KDRA-KVEL
LINE. A LINE OF CLOUDS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT
OTHERWISE IT HAS MOVED IN WITH LITTLE FANFARE. BASED ON
SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST MODEL DATA...HAVE REMOVED POPS
FROM THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. THE REST OF THE CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE PLANNED.
COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE STATE BY LATE TOMORROW
MORNING AS THE TROUGH GRAZES NORTHERN UTAH. AS A RESULT...MAXES
SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY TOMORROW.
HOWEVER...MODELS INDICATE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY RETURN
ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...ALLOWING FOR A
NOTICEABLE REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT EAST BY WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH THE STATE BY THURSDAY MORNING. ASSOCIATED SPLITTING
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE
ON THE TIMING. GFS IS THE MORE PROGRESSIVE ONE...BRINGING IT
THROUGH AND FRIDAY...WHILE THE SYSTEM LINGERS A DAY LONGER IN THE
EC.
&&
.AVIATION...THE PREDOMINANT WIND DIRECTION AT THE KSLC TERMINAL
OVERNIGHT WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER PERIODS OF LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS OF 4 KTS OR LESS ARE LIKELY THROUGH 07Z. THERE IS
A 30 PERCENT CHANCE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH 07Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...MYRICK
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)
000
FXUS65 KSLC 080421
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
921 PM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE LATE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...WEAK TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO WESTERN NEVADA THIS
EVENING...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY NEAR A KDRA-KVEL
LINE. A LINE OF CLOUDS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT
OTHERWISE IT HAS MOVED IN WITH LITTLE FANFARE. BASED ON
SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST MODEL DATA...HAVE REMOVED POPS
FROM THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. THE REST OF THE CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE PLANNED.
COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE STATE BY LATE TOMORROW
MORNING AS THE TROUGH GRAZES NORTHERN UTAH. AS A RESULT...MAXES
SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY TOMORROW.
HOWEVER...MODELS INDICATE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY RETURN
ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...ALLOWING FOR A
NOTICEABLE REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT EAST BY WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH THE STATE BY THURSDAY MORNING. ASSOCIATED SPLITTING
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE
ON THE TIMING. GFS IS THE MORE PROGRESSIVE ONE...BRINGING IT
THROUGH AND FRIDAY...WHILE THE SYSTEM LINGERS A DAY LONGER IN THE
EC.
&&
.AVIATION...THE PREDOMINANT WIND DIRECTION AT THE KSLC TERMINAL
OVERNIGHT WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER PERIODS OF LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS OF 4 KTS OR LESS ARE LIKELY THROUGH 07Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...MYRICK
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)
000
FXUS65 KSLC 072254
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
355 PM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG
SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH TONIGHT...THEN STALL OVER THE
AREA. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL SAG INTO NORTHERN UTAH THIS EVENING AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
MOVES BY TO THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER IDAHO
THIS MORNING...THESE HAVE NOW DISSIPATED...AND WITH MOST OF THE
DYNAMICS REMAINING TO THE NORTH...DO NOT FORSEE ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE
POP MENTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN UTAH FOR
TONIGHT...BUT THIS MAY BE OVERDONE GIVEN THE LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR
TRENDS.
COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TOMORROW BEHIND THE FRONT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL THEN DEVELOP BY MONDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. THIS FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE
AIRMASS WARMS AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. THIS STORM
WILL THEN USHER IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM THROUGH THURSDAY BUT WITH A FEW HOURS
DIFFERENCE IN TIMING. GENERAL TREND IS FOR AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TO
PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN UTAH LATE WEDNESDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTH. AS THE MAIN TROUGH DIVES
INTO IDAHO...IT WILL PUSH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA...SPREADING PRECIPITATION SOUTHWARD. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD LOWER
TO THE VALLEY FLOORS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH BY LATE
THURSDAY...BUT SNOW AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT AT THIS TIME
AS THE DYNAMICS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. THE STORM SHOULD
EXIT THE AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST EC SOLUTION
DOES KEEPS IT AROUND THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...NORTHWEST WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST UNTIL ABOUT 10-12Z...BUT THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
THEY WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 07 AND 09Z. THE THREAT OF
CEILINGS LOWERING TO BETWEEN 7000 FT AND 10000 FT HAS DIMINISHED TO
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT BETWEEN 07 AND 14Z SUNDAY.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...CHENG
AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)
000
FXUS65 KSLC 071655
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
955 AM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
SAG SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH TODAY...THEN STALL OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES YESTERDAY HAS LEFT A BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN
IDAHO THIS MORNING. ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE
GREAT BASIN WILL PUSH THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT
INTO NORTHERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO...AND THESE MAY
SPREAD INTO NORTHERN UTAH LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...ANY PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS MAINLY ABOVE 6000FT.
AFTER ANOTHER WEAK WAVE LATE SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE
AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGHOUT
THE AREA FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...AHEAD OF THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST MODELS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SPREAD...THE TREND IS FOR COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH SNOW POSSIBLE FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
NO UPDATES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING OVER NORTHWEST UTAH
WILL HELP ENHANCE NORTHWEST WINDS AT THE SALT LAKE TERMINAL THROUGH
TODAY AND LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL SLOWLY THICKEN AND LOWER AFTER 02Z TONIGHT WITH A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF LOWERING TO BETWEEN 7000 AND 10000 FT AGL AFTER
06Z.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...CHENG
AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)
000
FXUS65 KSLC 071142
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
442 AM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
SAG SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH TODAY...THEN STALL OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...STRONG WESTERLIES ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN PACIFIC
THROUGH THE WRN CONUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL
RESULT IN BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST THROUGH THE
PLAINS STATES STARTING LATE MONDAY. THE TROUGH IN THE GULF WILL
MOVE EAST TO THE PACIFIC NW/BRITCOL COAST MIDWEEK...RESULTING IN
AN INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT BASIN BEGINNING
TUESDAY.
A SHORTWAVE RACING EAST THROUGH NRN ROCKIES WILL NUDGE THE NEAR
700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTH OUT OF SRN IDAHO AND INTO NRN UTAH
LATER TODAY. ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET OVER SRN IDAHO
LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD FIELD ON THE COLD SIDE
OF THE THERMAL BOUNDARY. NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP SO
FAR AS THE THERMAL ADVECTION IS WEAK AND THE BEST AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
LIFT REMAINS WELL REMOVED TO THE NORTH. WILL KEEP A LOW-END
MENTION OF PRECIP OVER NRN UTAH AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONES SAGS IN
LATER TODAY. SUSPECT THAT THE THREAT FOR PRECIP WILL PICK UP THIS
EVENING AS STRONGER LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
FAR NRN ZONES. THE THERMAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL LATE
TONIGHT...WITH CONFLUENCE INTO THIS BOUNDARY OFFERING SOME CHANCE
OF CONTINUED PRECIP OVER NE UTAH INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL CREATE
INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT AND DRIVE TEMPS UPWARD AGAIN THROUGH
MIDWEEK. FORECAST BEYOND WEDNESDAY BECOMING HARDER TO PIN DOWN AS
NEITHER THE GFS OR ECMWF ABLE TO HOLD ON TO A SOLUTION FOR MORE
THAN A RUN OR TWO. NOT MUCH DOUBT THAT SOME FORM OF A TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY THURSDAY...BUT THE DETAILS MAY NOT
SHAKE OUT FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO. FOR NOW HAVE BROUGHT TEMPS DOWN
SUBSTANTIALLY AND INCLUDED FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIP FOR DAY 5 AND
BEYOND.
&&
.AVIATION...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWITCH SURFACE WINDS AT THE SLC
TERMINAL TO THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY...WITH THE MOST LIKELY TIME
FOR THE WIND SHIFT BEING BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
LOWER THROUGH THE MORNING AND WITH THE FRONT...BUT THERE IS ONLY A
10 PERCENT CHANCE OF CEILINGS BELOW 7000FT AGL. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...CONGER
AVIATION...SCHOENING
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)
000
FXUS65 KSLC 070350
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
850 PM MST FRI NOV 6 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY THEN STALL ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH SATURDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A LARGE LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA THIS
EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WAS DRY AS IT PUSHED ACROSS
NRN UT TODAY AND IS CURRENTLY STALLED ALONG ABOUT A VERNAL-DELTA
LINE.
A WAVE MOVING THRU THE BASE OF THE TROF IS COMING ASHORE AT THIS
TIME AND IS FORECAST TO SLIDE PAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS
WILL PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH AGAIN AND SEND COOLER AIR INTO NRN UT.
EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS WITH THIS BOUNDARY BUT LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP
AS ANY DYNAMICS REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.
MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL STALL AGAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH
SAT NIGHT THRU SUN THEN SHIFT BACK NORTH MON AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
RIDGE MOVES PAST.
OTHER THAN SOME CLOUDINESS AND A FEW MTN SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES...
THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE WEATHER. IT WILL HOWEVER
LOWER TEMPS ACROSS THE NRN FORECAST AREA SEVERAL MORE DEGREES
TOMORROW AND THE ENTIRE AREA SUN.
18Z GFS WAS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROF FOR MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK AND CLOSER TO THE EC BUT STILL DIVERGED FROM THE EC BY 00Z
THU. IT DOES APPEAR THERE IS A PRECIP THREAT SOMETIME IN THE
WED/THU TIME FRAME BUT ITS TOO SOON TO RESOLVE DETAILS ON TYPE
AND TIMING.
NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST BETWEEN
17 AND 19Z SATURDAY. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CEILINGS
COULD LOWER TO BETWEEN 7000 AND 10000 FT AGL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AFTER 19Z SATURDAY.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WILENSKY/STRUTHWOLF
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)
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