[top]
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 090252
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
952 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE TUESDAY THEN
STALLS NEAR THE GULF STREAM WALL WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM THE NORTH
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE AREA INTO
MONDAY BEFORE THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE. ADJUSTED
A FEW MIN TEMPS FOR OVRNGT...BASED ON LATEST OBS AND LAMP GUIDANCE.
OTHRWISE...CLR AND COOL WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE LWR TO MID 40S MOST
PLACES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRES CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL QUICKLY MOVE
INTO THE UPR MIDWEST AS ITS ASSCD MID LVL TROF PUSHES INTO THE SRN
GRT LKS OH VLY RGN LATE MON. MEANWHILE...AS TROPICAL SYSTEM IDA
MOVES FURTHER NORTH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO A SECOND HYBRID LOW
OVER THE WRN GULF COAST IS FCSTD TO EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH IDA AS
IT STARTS TO WEAKEN IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE THE AL/FL PANHANDLE
COAST BY THEN. BEYOND THIS TIMEFRAME...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
WITH A WIDE RANGE OF SOLNS THAT WILL HAVE MAJOR IMPLICATIONS TO
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE CWA TUE-THU.
THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST OF SOLNS WITH RESPECT TO WHAT THE REMNANTS
OF IDA WILL BRING TO OUR REGION...AND IT IS CURRENTLY THE OUTRIGHT
OUTLIER BOMBING THE SYSTEM OUT JUST OFF THE VA/NC COAST AS HIGH PRES
MOVES OVER THE GRT LKS RGN. SEEMS THIS TYPE OF PATTERN WOULD BE MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF A PROGRESSIVE...THUS WEAKER BROAD SYSTEM THAN ONE TO
BOMB OUT. THEREFORE SIDING CLOSER TO LATEST NAM/SREF/ECMWF SOLN FOR
NOW WITH SUPPORT FROM HPC AND BULK OF TROPICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.
OVERALL...LOOK FOR CHS OF RA/SHRA ACTIVITY FOR OUR AREA (ESP SRN
THIRD) STARTING LATE TUE AND CONTINUING INTO WED. OVERALL THINKING
PRECIP MAY BE FAIRLY LIGHT OVER NRN ZONES AND WILL BE HEAVILY
DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY HIGH PRES CAN START TO MOVE INTO THE RGN.
COULD ALSO START TO SEE STRONG ERLY GRADIENT WINDS BETWEEN THE
LARGE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND REMNANTS OF THE LOW TO THE SOUTH BY
THEN.
AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY FOR MON (BUT A FEW
NOTCHES HIGHER) AND UPR 60S TO LOW 70S ON TUE. LOWS IN THE 40S TO
LOW 50S MON/TUE NIGHT. WEDS TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP...BUT CURRENTLY GOING WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BEGINNING OF THIS PRD WILL ALL DEPEND ON EXACT TRACK & INTENSITY
OF THE LOW PRS SYSTM ASSCTD WITH WHAT IS CRNTLY "IDA". RTHR LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE WED NITE / THURS TIME FRAME AS TO JUST HOW LONG
PCPN CONTS ACROSS FA GIVEN NMRS MODEL SOLNS. STARTED WITH HPC GRIDS
BUT HAD TO MAKE NMRS ADJUSTMENTS TO WED NITE / THURS TIME FRAME
BASED ON TRYING TO MESH THE SHORT TERM FCST WITH THE XTNDD FCST.
FOR NOW...INCRSD CLOUD COVERAGE & TMP GRIDS AS WELL AS XTNDG CHC
POPS (RAIN) ACROSS FA WED NITE. LOWS IN THE 40S TO L50S. ELECTED
TO KEEP THU DRY BUT WILL LWR TMPS GIVEN THE PROGGED SYNOPTIC
SCENARIO BEHIND POTENT LOW. HIGHS IN THE 50S.
HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE RGN BEHIND THE STORM. PLAN ON TRENDING
TOWARD THE ECMWF AND STICKING WITH A DRY AND SEASONABLE FCST FOR
FRI THRU NXT WKEND. HIGHS FRI 55-60 AND IN THE 60S NXT WKEND.
LOWS FRI MORN M30S-M40S AND 40-50 NXT WKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONTINUES ACRS THE FCST AREA THIS EVNG AS HI PRES REMAINS JUST
OFF THE MID ATLC CST. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FCST AS LGT AND VRBL
WNDS AND CLR SKIES WL CONTINE OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG WAS THE MAIN
THINKING POINT OF THIS FCST AS MDLS CONTINUE TO LWR VIS TO MVFR
DURING THE EARLY MRNG HRS MON. DECIDED TO MENTION POSSIBILITY OF
SOME PATCHY FOG IN DISCUSSION BUT NOT IN TAFS. THINKING IS THAT
WHILE SOME FOG MAY FORM (BEST CHC AT CSTL SITES)...CONDS ARE TOO DRY
FOR IT TO POSE A THREAT TO VIS AT THE MOMENT
VFR CONDS CONTINUE INTO TUE...THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS A LOW MVS
ACRS THE SE US. TO WHAT EXTENT IS STILL TO BE DETERMINED AS MDLS
HAVE HAD DIFFERING OPINIONS ON THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE
LOW. MOST LIKELY EXPECT GUSTY NE/E WNDS WITH LOW CIGS AND REDUCED
VIS DUE TO PCPN FOR WED/THU WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRS MOVES OFF THE COAST RESULTING IN WNDS OF 15 KTS OR LESS
ALONG WITH SEAS BTWN 2-3 FT THRU MON NITE. CNDTNS XPCTD TO REMAIN
BLO SCA LVLS TUE...BUT NE WNDS BEGIN TO INCRS THE SEAS TO BTWN 3-4
FT DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW.
SCA`S XPCTD TO OVRSPRD MARINE AREA TUE NITE AS LOW PRS APPRCHS
APPRCHS FROM THE S. LOW CONFIDENCE BEYOND HERE AS THE FCST WILL ALL
DEPEND ON EXACT TRACK & INTENSITY OF THE LOW. PER COORD CALL WITH
OPC/MHX/LWX...WILL CONT TO INCRS WNDS WED WITH GUSTS TO LOW END GALE
XPCTD TO OVRSPRD CSTL WTRS S-N BEGINNING WED AFTRN ACROSS SRN CSTL
WTRS THEN WED NITE ACROSS ALL CSTL WTRS. WILL KEEP GUSTS CAPPED AT
30 KTS ACROSS THE CHES BAY AND CURRITUCK SND ATTM. CUD SEE GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENUF
THIS FAR OUT. WILL CAP SEA HEIGHT THIS FAR OUT BTWN 8-10 FT. CSTL
FLOODING MAY BECOME AN ISSUE BY MID WEEK AS WELL.
WILL UPDATE THE MARINE SECTION OF THE HWO FOR THE MID WEEK PRD.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...CCW
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...AM
MARINE...MPR/AM
[top]
000
FXUS61 KLWX 090211
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
911 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THURSDAY...AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONT MOVES THROUGH FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE PUSHING NORTHEAST...PUSHING OFF
THE ERN SEABOARD TNGT...PUTTING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IN SLY
RETURN FLOW. DESPITE NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
TNGT...MIN TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AS DEWPOINTS ARE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S. WITH LLVL THERMAL INVERSION...LOW TEMPS WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE HIGHER OVR THE RIDGE TOPS THAN IN LOCATIONS IN
SHELTERED VALLEYS AND ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
ANOTHER DAY OF LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. GREATER SLY FLOW WITH HIGH
POSITION TO ALLOW FOR MORE MIXING. WENT A DEGREE OR TWO LESS THAN
SUNDAY`S HIGH DUE TO CI DECK MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PROGRESSES EWD THRU THE MIDWEST/MS VLY. HOWEVER...SHOULD THE HIGH
CLOUDS NOT HAVE THAT GREAT OF AN EFFECT...HIGHER TEMPERATURES THAN
YESTERDAY COULD OCCUR...15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...APPROACHING RECORDS /SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW/.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THE MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF BRINGING
TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF STATES ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. MODELS TRENDS ALSO BRING THE REMNANT LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
IDA NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS...BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE
CWFA FOR THE MID WEEK.
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND TRENDED THE POPS UPWARDS FROM 20 PERCENT TO
ALMOST 50 PERCENT IN LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND. REGARDLESS OF THE LOW
CENTER TRACK...THERE WILL BE A TIGHT PRECIP GRADIENT. HAVE OPTED ON
THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE AND KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE EAST AND IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY...AS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS FOR
THE MID RANGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY...WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LGT WINDS THRU MON AS HIPRES REMAINS OVER THE
TERMINALS.
SUB VFR VSBYS/CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...BRINGING ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA. THE
WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE
REMNANTS OF IDA AFFECT THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE LGT THRU TNGT WITH HIPRS OVRHD. FLOW WILL BECOME SLY
MON 5-10 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 15 KT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN MD
CHSPK BAY IN THE LATE AFTN.
SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES ARE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEHIND
A COLD FRONT AND AS THE REMNANTS OF IDA AFFECT THE SE US AND MIDDLE
ATLANTIC. GALE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WHEN THE REMNANT LOW IS CLOSEST TO THE AREA.
POSITIVE TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...AS THE LOW CENTER AFFECTS THE EAST COAST.
&&
.CLIMATE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BRING MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION TOMORROW. IN FACT...THE
HIGHEST TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 9 SINCE 1994 /WHEN LOCAL RECORDS
WERE SET/ IS ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH
BUT NOT BREAK THOSE RECORDS. BELOW ARE THE RECORD MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AT SELECTED AREA CLIMATE SITES...
SITE 09/11 YEAR
BWI......78......1994
DCA......79......1994
IAD......78......1994
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BAJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NWL/JRK
[top]
000
FXUS61 KRNK 090210
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
910 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE MONDAY.
MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA BY TUESDAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD CROSS THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
ONGOING FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE..ALTHOUGH BUMPED LOWS A
COUPLE DEGREES DOWN IN THE VALLEYS AS TEMPS RUNNING COOLER. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN CALM AND DEWPOINTS ARE STILL HANGING AROUND 35 TO
40. THE LITTLE BIT OF AC/CI OVER THE CWA WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH
EARLY MORNING WITH SOME CIRRUS BLEEDING INTO THE WRN CWA BY 12Z.
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH LATE
MONDAY BEFORE SLIDING EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC.
ANTICIPATE ONE MORE DAY OF HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS...LOWER 70S...ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA MONDAY AS THE
RIDGE HOVERS OVER THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...DO NOT
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO NEAR RECORD NUMBERS AS TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UKMET/CANADIAN/NAM ARE CLOSEST IN POSITION TO THE 15Z TPC POSITION
OF THE LOW IN THE GULF BY TUESDAY MORNING. FOLLOWING THE ROUGH
POSITION OF THE SURFACE AND 850 FEATURES OFF OF THESE MODELS HAS A
LOW CROSSING THE SOUTHEAST UNITES STATES ON WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE A SHORT WAVE CROSSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES OF TUESDAY
WILL PUSH A BOUNDARY INTO THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE
SOUTH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A LARGE
HIGH...ABOUT 1035 MB BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH WILL CREATE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG
ONSHORE WINDS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND FLORIDA.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE HIGHLY DIFFERENT SO FOR NOW WILL JUST TREND
WETTER AND WINDIER IN THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS SCENARIO HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE QPF ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE GIVEN THE
EXPECTED LOW LEVEL WINDS.
FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS AND
CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 40S. STAYED AT OR
JUST ABOVE THE WARMEST GUIDANCE.
THERE IS A BIG SPREAD BETWEEN THE COOL MAV GUIDANCE AND THE MUCH
WARMER MET GUIDANCE STARTING ON TUESDAY. SINCE FRONT AND BULK OF THE
RAIN DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON...TRENDED TOWARD WARMER
NUMBERS FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALLOWED FOR SOME LIGHT POPS IN THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY AIDED BY
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE POTENTIAL DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE. THIS SHOULD KEEP DRY WEATHER IN PLACE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
AS WELL GIVEN STRONG S/W RIDGING OFF BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF. THIS WILL
ALSO RESULT IN LARGE DIURNAL SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES AGAIN ESPCLY BY
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE ABOUT OVERHEAD. NEXT FAST
MOVING NORTHERN STREAM S/W TROF WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE NW
BY SATURDAY WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AROUND THE DEPARTING RIDGE
OFFSHORE. THIS MAY BRING A FEW PRE-FRONTAL SHRA TO THE WEST ON
SATURDAY...WILL ONLY CARRY SOME LIGHT POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY/SAT ONCE THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
WEST/SW BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE AREA MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
MONDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES OFFSHORE. CEILINGS
WILL LOWER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH
THE AREA COMBINED WITH MOISTURE FROM IDA WILL BRING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...REB/WP
NEAR TERM...REB/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS/WP
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...REB/WP
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 082356
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
656 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY
AND TONIGHT...THEN MOVES EAST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM THE
NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE AREA INTO
MONDAY BEFORE THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE. LOOK
FOR CLEAR SKIES TNT AND TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR
MOST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRES CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL QUICKLY MOVE
INTO THE UPR MIDWEST AS ITS ASSCD MID LVL TROF PUSHES INTO THE SRN
GRT LKS OH VLY RGN LATE MON. MEANWHILE...AS TROPICAL SYSTEM IDA
MOVES FURTHER NORTH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO A SECOND HYBRID LOW
OVER THE WRN GULF COAST IS FCSTD TO EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH IDA AS
IT STARTS TO WEAKEN IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE THE AL/FL PANHANDLE
COAST BY THEN. BEYOND THIS TIMEFRAME...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
WITH A WIDE RANGE OF SOLNS THAT WILL HAVE MAJOR IMPLICATIONS TO
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE CWA TUE-THU.
THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST OF SOLNS WITH RESPECT TO WHAT THE REMNANTS
OF IDA WILL BRING TO OUR REGION...AND IT IS CURRENTLY THE OUTRIGHT
OUTLIER BOMBING THE SYSTEM OUT JUST OFF THE VA/NC COAST AS HIGH PRES
MOVES OVER THE GRT LKS RGN. SEEMS THIS TYPE OF PATTERN WOULD BE MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF A PROGRESSIVE...THUS WEAKER BROAD SYSTEM THAN ONE TO
BOMB OUT. THEREFORE SIDING CLOSER TO LATEST NAM/SREF/ECMWF SOLN FOR
NOW WITH SUPPORT FROM HPC AND BULK OF TROPICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.
OVERALL...LOOK FOR CHS OF RA/SHRA ACTIVITY FOR OUR AREA (ESP SRN
THIRD) STARTING LATE TUE AND CONTINUING INTO WED. OVERALL THINKING
PRECIP MAY BE FAIRLY LIGHT OVER NRN ZONES AND WILL BE HEAVILY
DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY HIGH PRES CAN START TO MOVE INTO THE RGN.
COULD ALSO START TO SEE STRONG ERLY GRADIENT WINDS BETWEEN THE
LARGE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND REMNANTS OF THE LOW TO THE SOUTH BY
THEN.
AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY FOR MON (BUT A FEW
NOTCHES HIGHER) AND UPR 60S TO LOW 70S ON TUE. LOWS IN THE 40S TO
LOW 50S MON/TUE NIGHT. WEDS TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP...BUT CURRENTLY GOING WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BEGINNING OF THIS PRD WILL ALL DEPEND ON EXACT TRACK & INTENSITY
OF THE LOW PRS SYSTM ASSCTD WITH WHAT IS CRNTLY "IDA". RTHR LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE WED NITE / THURS TIME FRAME AS TO JUST HOW LONG
PCPN CONTS ACROSS FA GIVEN NMRS MODEL SOLNS. STARTED WITH HPC GRIDS
BUT HAD TO MAKE NMRS ADJUSTMENTS TO WED NITE / THURS TIME FRAME
BASED ON TRYING TO MESH THE SHORT TERM FCST WITH THE XTNDD FCST.
FOR NOW...INCRSD CLOUD COVERAGE & TMP GRIDS AS WELL AS XTNDG CHC
POPS (RAIN) ACROSS FA WED NITE. LOWS IN THE 40S TO L50S. ELECTED
TO KEEP THU DRY BUT WILL LWR TMPS GIVEN THE PROGGED SYNOPTIC
SCENARIO BEHIND POTENT LOW. HIGHS IN THE 50S.
HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE RGN BEHIND THE STORM. PLAN ON TRENDING
TOWARD THE ECMWF AND STICKING WITH A DRY AND SEASONABLE FCST FOR
FRI THRU NXT WKEND. HIGHS FRI 55-60 AND IN THE 60S NXT WKEND.
LOWS FRI MORN M30S-M40S AND 40-50 NXT WKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONTINUES ACRS THE FCST AREA THIS EVNG AS HI PRES REMAINS JUST
OFF THE MID ATLC CST. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FCST AS LGT AND VRBL
WNDS AND CLR SKIES WL CONTINE OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG WAS THE MAIN
THINKING POINT OF THIS FCST AS MDLS CONTINUE TO LWR VIS TO MVFR
DURING THE EARLY MRNG HRS MON. DECIDED TO MENTION POSSIBILITY OF
SOME PATCHY FOG IN DISCUSSION BUT NOT IN TAFS. THINKING IS THAT
WHILE SOME FOG MAY FORM (BEST CHC AT CSTL SITES)...CONDS ARE TOO DRY
FOR IT TO POSE A THREAT TO VIS AT THE MOMENT
VFR CONDS CONTINUE INTO TUE...THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS A LOW MVS
ACRS THE SE US. TO WHAT EXTENT IS STILL TO BE DETERMINED AS MDLS
HAVE HAD DIFFERING OPINIONS ON THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE
LOW. MOST LIKELY EXPECT GUSTY NE/E WNDS WITH LOW CIGS AND REDUCED
VIS DUE TO PCPN FOR WED/THU WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRS MOVES OFF THE COAST RESULTING IN WNDS OF 15 KTS OR LESS
ALONG WITH SEAS BTWN 2-3 FT THRU MON NITE. CNDTNS XPCTD TO REMAIN
BLO SCA LVLS TUE...BUT NE WNDS BEGIN TO INCRS THE SEAS TO BTWN 3-4
FT DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW.
SCA`S XPCTD TO OVRSPRD MARINE AREA TUE NITE AS LOW PRS APPRCHS
APPRCHS FROM THE S. LOW CONFIDENCE BEYOND HERE AS THE FCST WILL ALL
DEPEND ON EXACT TRACK & INTENSITY OF THE LOW. PER COORD CALL WITH
OPC/MHX/LWX...WILL CONT TO INCRS WNDS WED WITH GUSTS TO LOW END GALE
XPCTD TO OVRSPRD CSTL WTRS S-N BEGINNING WED AFTRN ACROSS SRN CSTL
WTRS THEN WED NITE ACROSS ALL CSTL WTRS. WILL KEEP GUSTS CAPPED AT
30 KTS ACROSS THE CHES BAY AND CURRITUCK SND ATTM. CUD SEE GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENUF
THIS FAR OUT. WILL CAP SEA HEIGHT THIS FAR OUT BTWN 8-10 FT. CSTL
FLOODING MAY BECOME AN ISSUE BY MID WEEK AS WELL.
WILL UPDATE THE MARINE SECTION OF THE HWO FOR THE MID WEEK PRD.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CCW
NEAR TERM...CCW
SHORT TERM...CCW
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...AM
MARINE...MPR
000
FXUS61 KRNK 082326
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
626 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE MONDAY.
MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA BY TUESDAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD CROSS THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LITTLE MOISTURE BAND AT THE MID-UPPER LVLS PUSHING SOM AC ACROSS
THE CWA ATTM. THINK THIS WILL BE OUT OF HERE THIS EVENING SO
KEEPING THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE.
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH LATE
MONDAY BEFORE SLIDING EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT ANOTHER ABOVE
NORMAL NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S WITH SOME AREAS
ALONG THE RIDGES CLOSER TO 50 DEGREES AS 850MB TEMPERATURES RANGE
FROM +12 TO +14 DEGREES C OVERNIGHT.
ANTICIPATE ONE MORE DAY OF HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS...LOWER 70S...ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA MONDAY AS THE
RIDGE HOVERS OVER THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...DO NOT
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO NEAR RECORD NUMBERS AS TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UKMET/CANADIAN/NAM ARE CLOSEST IN POSITION TO THE 15Z TPC POSITION
OF THE LOW IN THE GULF BY TUESDAY MORNING. FOLLOWING THE ROUGH
POSITION OF THE SURFACE AND 850 FEATURES OFF OF THESE MODELS HAS A
LOW CROSSING THE SOUTHEAST UNITES STATES ON WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE A SHORT WAVE CROSSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES OF TUESDAY
WILL PUSH A BOUNDARY INTO THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE
SOUTH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A LARGE
HIGH...ABOUT 1035 MB BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH WILL CREATE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG
ONSHORE WINDS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND FLORIDA.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE HIGHLY DIFFERENT SO FOR NOW WILL JUST TREND
WETTER AND WINDIER IN THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS SCENARIO HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE QPF ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE GIVEN THE
EXPECTED LOW LEVEL WINDS.
FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS AND
CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 40S. STAYED AT OR
JUST ABOVE THE WARMEST GUIDANCE.
THERE IS A BIG SPREAD BETWEEN THE COOL MAV GUIDANCE AND THE MUCH
WARMER MET GUIDANCE STARTING ON TUESDAY. SINCE FRONT AND BULK OF THE
RAIN DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON...TRENDED TOWARD WARMER
NUMBERS FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALLOWED FOR SOME LIGHT POPS IN THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY AIDED BY
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE POTENTIAL DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE. THIS SHOULD KEEP DRY WEATHER IN PLACE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
AS WELL GIVEN STRONG S/W RIDGING OFF BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF. THIS WILL
ALSO RESULT IN LARGE DIURNAL SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES AGAIN ESPCLY BY
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE ABOUT OVERHEAD. NEXT FAST
MOVING NORTHERN STREAM S/W TROF WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE NW
BY SATURDAY WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AROUND THE DEPARTING RIDGE
OFFSHORE. THIS MAY BRING A FEW PRE-FRONTAL SHRA TO THE WEST ON
SATURDAY...WILL ONLY CARRY SOME LIGHT POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY/SAT ONCE THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
WEST/SW BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE AREA MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
MONDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES OFFSHORE. CEILINGS
WILL LOWER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH
THE AREA COMBINED WITH MOISTURE FROM IDA WILL BRING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...REB/WP
NEAR TERM...REB/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS/WP
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...REB/WP
000
FXUS61 KLWX 082000
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
300 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THURSDAY...AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONT MOVES THROUGH FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIPRES AND UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH OFF THE ERN SEABOARD
TNGT...PUTTING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IN SLY RETURN FLOW. DESPITE
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TNGT...MIN TEMPS WILL STILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL AS THERMAL RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVRHD. WITH LLVL THERMAL
INVERSION...LOW TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE HIGHER OVR THE RIDGE TOPS
THAN IN LOCATIONS IN SHELTERED VALLEYS AND ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
ANOTHER DAY OF LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE...ANOTHER DAY OF SUNNY WX. SFC
HIPRES/UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CONT TO PROGRESS EWD OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST...BUT REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGIONAL WX PATTERN.
SOME CI BLOWOFF MAY MOVE IN FROM THE W AS AN SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PROGRESSES EWD THRU THE MIDWEST/MS VLY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMP TREND WILL
CONT MON WITH HIGHS NEAR 70F.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
URFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THE MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF BRINGING
TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF STATES ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. MODELS TRENDS ALSO BRING THE REMNANT LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
IDA NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS...BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE
CWFA FOR THE MID WEEK.
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND TRENDED THE POPS UPWARDS FROM 20 PERCENT TO
ALMOST 50 PERCENT IN LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND. REGARDLESS OF THE LOW
CENTER TRACK...THERE WILL BE A TIGHT PRECIP GRADIENT. HAVE OPTED ON
THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE AND KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE EAST AND IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY...AS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS FOR
THE MID RANGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY...WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDTIONS AND LGT WINDS THRU MON AS HIPRES REMAINS OVER THE
TERMINALS.
SUB VFR VSBYS/CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...BRINGING ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA. THE
WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE
REMNANTS OF IDA AFFECT THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE LGT THRU TNGT WITH HIPRS OVRHD. FLOW WILL BECOME SLY
MON 5-10 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 15 KT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN MD
CHSPK BAY IN THE LATE AFTN.
SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES ARE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEHIND
A COLD FRONT AND AS THE REMNANTS OF IDA AFFECT THE SE US AND MIDDLE
ATLANTIC. GALE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WHEN THE REMNANT LOW IS CLOSEST TO THE AREA.
POSITIVE TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...AS THE LOW CENTER AFFECTS THE EAST COAST.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
KLEIN/LISTEMAA
000
FXUS61 KRNK 081959
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
259 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE MONDAY.
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA BY
TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE FOR LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH LATE
MONDAY BEFORE SLIDING EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
WILL BE IN PLACE GIVING WAY TO ANOTHER RAINFREE DAY. EXPECT
ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S
WITH SOME AREAS ALONG THE RIDGES CLOSER TO 50 DEGREES AS 850MB
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM +12 TO +14 DEGREES C OVERNIGHT.
ANTICIPATE ONE MORE DAY OF HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS...LOWER 70S...ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA MONDAY AS THE
RIDGE HOVERS OVER THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...DO NOT
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO NEAR RECORD NUMBERS AS TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UKMET/CANADIAN/NAM ARE CLOSEST IN POSITION TO THE 15Z TPC POSITION
OF THE LOW IN THE GULF BY TUESDAY MORNING. FOLLOWING THE ROUGH
POSITION OF THE SURFACE AND 850 FEATURES OFF OF THESE MODELS HAS A
LOW CROSSING THE SOUTHEAST UNITES STATES ON WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE A SHORT WAVE CROSSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES OF TUESDAY
WILL PUSH A BOUNDARY INTO THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE
SOUTH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A LARGE
HIGH...ABOUT 1035 MB BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH WILL CREATE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG
ONSHORE WINDS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND FLORIDA.
MODEL SOLUTIONS AND HIGHLY DIFFERENT TO FOR NOW WILL JUST TREND
WETTER AND WINDIER IN THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS SCENARIO HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE QPF ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE GIVEN THE
EXPECTED LOW LEVEL WINDS.
FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS AND
CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 40S. STAYED AT OR
JUST ABOVE THE WARMEST GUIDANCE.
THERE IS A BIG SPREAD BETWEEN THE COOL MAV GUIDANCE AND THE MUCH
WARMER MET GUIDANCE STARTING ON TUESDAY. SINCE FRONT AND BULK OF THE
RAIN DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON...TRENDED TOWARD WARMER
NUMBERS FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALLOWED FOR SOME LIGHT POPS IN THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY AIDED BY
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE POTENTIAL DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE. THIS SHOULD KEEP DRY WEATHER IN PLACE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
AS WELL GIVEN STRONG S/W RIDGING OFF BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF. THIS WILL
ALSO RESULT IN LARGE DIURNAL SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES AGAIN ESPCLY BY
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE ABOUT OVERHEAD. NEXT FAST
MOVING NORTHERN STREAM S/W TROF WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE NW
BY SATURDAY WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AROUND THE DEPARTING RIDGE
OFFSHORE. THIS MAY BRING A FEW PRE-FRONTAL SHRA TO THE WEST ON
SATURDAY...WILL ONLY CARRY SOME LIGHT POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY/SAT ONCE THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
WEST/SW BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE AREA MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
MONDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALSO
RESULT IN A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CEILINGS WILL LOWER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT COMING
THROUGH THE AREA COMBINED WITH MOISTURE FROM IDA WILL BRING THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/REB
NEAR TERM...REB
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...REB
000
FXUS61 KRNK 081955
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
255 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE MONDAY.
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA BY
TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE FOR LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH LATE
MONDAY BEFORE SLIDING EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
WILL BE IN PLACE GIVING WAY TO ANOTHER RAINFREE DAY. EXPECT
ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S
WITH SOME AREAS ALONG THE RIDGES CLOSER TO 50 DEGREES AS 850MB
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM +12 TO +14 DEGREES C OVERNIGHT.
ANTICIPATE ONE MORE DAY OF HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS...LOWER 70S...ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA MONDAY AS THE
RIDGE HOVERS OVER THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...DO NOT
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO NEAR RECORD NUMBERS AS TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UKMET/CANADIAN/NAM ARE CLOSEST IN POSITION TO THE 15Z TPC POSITION
OF THE LOW IN THE GULF BY TUESDAY MORNING. FOLLOWING THE ROUGH
POSITION OF THE SURFACE AND 850 FEATURES OFF OF THESE MODELS HAS A
LOW CROSSING THE SOUTHEAST UNITES STATES ON WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE A SHORT WAVE CROSSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES OF TUESDAY
WILL PUSH A BOUNDARY INTO THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE
SOUTH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A LARGE
HIGH...ABOUT 1035 MB BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH WILL CREATE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG
ONSHORE WINDS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND FLORIDA.
MODEL SOLUTIONS AND HIGHLY DIFFERENT TO FOR NOW WILL JUST TREND
WETTER AND WINDIER IN THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS SCENARIO HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE QPF ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE GIVEN THE
EXPECTED LOW LEVEL WINDS.
FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS AND
CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 40S. STAYED AT OR
JUST ABOVE THE WARMEST GUIDANCE.
THERE IS A BIG SPREAD BETWEEN THE COOL MAV GUIDANCE AND THE MUCH
WARMER MET GUIDANCE STARTING ON TUESDAY. SINCE FRONT AND BULK OF THE
RAIN DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON...TRENDED TOWARD WARMER
NUMBERS FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALLOWED FOR SOME LIGHT POPS IN THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY AIDED BY
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE POTENTIAL DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE. THIS SHOULD KEEP DRY WEATHER IN PLACE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
AS WELL GIVEN STRONG S/W RIDGING OFF BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF. THIS WILL
ALSO RESULT IN LARGE DIURNAL SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES AGAIN ESPCLY BY
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE ABOUT OVERHEAD. NEXT FAST
MOVING NORTHERN STREAM S/W TROF WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE NW
BY SATURDAY WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AROUND THE DEPARTING RIDGE
OFFSHORE. THIS MAY BRING A FEW PRE-FRONTAL SHRA TO THE WEST ON
SATURDAY...WILL ONLY CARRY SOME LIGHT POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY/SAT ONCE THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
WEST/SW BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE AREA MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
MONDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALSO
RESULT IN A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CEILINGS WILL LOWER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT COMING
THROUGH THE AREA COMBINED WITH MOISTURE FROM IDA WILL BRING THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/REB
NEAR TERM...REB
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...REB
FIRE WEATHER...
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 081949
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
249 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY
AND TONIGHT...THEN MOVES EAST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM THE
NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE AREA INTO
MONDAY BEFORE THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE. LOOK
FOR CLEAR SKIES TNT AND TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR
MOST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRES CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL QUICKLY MOVE
INTO THE UPR MIDWEST AS ITS ASSCD MID LVL TROF PUSHES INTO THE SRN
GRT LKS OH VLY RGN LATE MON. MEANWHILE...AS TROPICAL SYSTEM IDA
MOVES FURTHER NORTH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO A SECOND HYBRID LOW
OVER THE WRN GULF COAST IS FCSTD TO EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH IDA AS
IT STARTS TO WEAKEN IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE THE AL/FL PANHANDLE
COAST BY THEN. BEYOND THIS TIMEFRAME...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
WITH A WIDE RANGE OF SOLNS THAT WILL HAVE MAJOR IMPLICATIONS TO
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE CWA TUE-THU.
THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST OF SOLNS WITH RESPECT TO WHAT THE REMNANTS
OF IDA WILL BRING TO OUR REGION...AND IT IS CURRENTLY THE OUTRIGHT
OUTLIER BOMBING THE SYSTEM OUT JUST OFF THE VA/NC COAST AS HIGH PRES
MOVES OVER THE GRT LKS RGN. SEEMS THIS TYPE OF PATTERN WOULD BE MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF A PROGRESSIVE...THUS WEAKER BROAD SYSTEM THAN ONE TO
BOMB OUT. THEREFORE SIDING CLOSER TO LATEST NAM/SREF/ECMWF SOLN FOR
NOW WITH SUPPORT FROM HPC AND BULK OF TROPICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.
OVERALL...LOOK FOR CHS OF RA/SHRA ACTIVITY FOR OUR AREA (ESP SRN
THIRD) STARTING LATE TUE AND CONTINUING INTO WED. OVERALL THINKING
PRECIP MAY BE FAIRLY LIGHT OVER NRN ZONES AND WILL BE HEAVILY
DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY HIGH PRES CAN START TO MOVE INTO THE RGN.
COULD ALSO START TO SEE STRONG ERLY GRADIENT WINDS BETWEEN THE
LARGE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND REMNANTS OF THE LOW TO THE SOUTH BY
THEN.
AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY FOR MON (BUT A FEW
NOTCHES HIGHER) AND UPR 60S TO LOW 70S ON TUE. LOWS IN THE 40S TO
LOW 50S MON/TUE NIGHT. WEDS TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP...BUT CURRENTLY GOING WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BEGINNING OF THIS PRD WILL ALL DEPEND ON EXACT TRACK & INTENSITY
OF THE LOW PRS SYSTM ASSCTD WITH WHAT IS CRNTLY "IDA". RTHR LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE WED NITE / THURS TIME FRAME AS TO JUST HOW LONG
PCPN CONTS ACROSS FA GIVEN NMRS MODEL SOLNS. STARTED WITH HPC GRIDS
BUT HAD TO MAKE NMRS ADJUSTMENTS TO WED NITE / THURS TIME FRAME
BASED ON TRYING TO MESH THE SHORT TERM FCST WITH THE XTNDD FCST.
FOR NOW...INCRSD CLOUD COVERAGE & TMP GRIDS AS WELL AS XTNDG CHC
POPS (RAIN) ACROSS FA WED NITE. LOWS IN THE 40S TO L50S. ELECTED
TO KEEP THU DRY BUT WILL LWR TMPS GIVEN THE PROGGED SYNOPTIC
SCENARIO BEHIND POTENT LOW. HIGHS IN THE 50S.
HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE RGN BEHIND THE STORM. PLAN ON TRENDING
TOWARD THE ECMWF AND STICKING WITH A DRY AND SEASONABLE FCST FOR
FRI THRU NXT WKEND. HIGHS FRI 55-60 AND IN THE 60S NXT WKEND.
LOWS FRI MORN M30S-M40S AND 40-50 NXT WKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AKQ FORECAST AREA IS RESULTING IN
LGT AND VRBL WINDS. SKIES REMAIN CLR IN THE TAFS ALTHOUGH THE NAM
INDICATES SOME HIGH CLOUDS ENTERING THE PICTURE DURG THE DAY MON.
THE EARLIER TAF FOR SBY HAD 2 MILES BR AFT 06Z. THE MAV HAS IFR FOG
BUT MODEL DATA IS LIKELY CONTAMINATED BY THE PREVIOUS LOCATION OF
THE SENSOR. BOTH MOS FCSTS HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPR 30S...
ABOUT 5 DEGREES LWR THAN OUR OFFICIAL FCST. WILL KEEP THEM 7+ MILES
FOR NOW.
VFR WILL CONTINUE INTO TUE BUT THINGS GO DOWNHILL FROM THERE.
VARIOUS MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND MIDWEEK
OFF EITHER THE CAROLINA OR MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
STRONG NE TO E WINDS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF WIDESPREAD PCPN AND AREAS OF IFR BY WED AND POSSIBLY THU. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRS MOVES OFF THE COAST RESULTING IN WNDS OF 15 KTS OR LESS
ALONG WITH SEAS BTWN 2-3 FT THRU MON NITE. CNDTNS XPCTD TO REMAIN
BLO SCA LVLS TUE...BUT NE WNDS BEGIN TO INCRS THE SEAS TO BTWN 3-4
FT DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW.
SCA`S XPCTD TO OVRSPRD MARINE AREA TUE NITE AS LOW PRS APPRCHS
APPRCHS FROM THE S. LOW CONFIDENCE BEYOND HERE AS THE FCST WILL ALL
DEPEND ON EXACT TRACK & INTENSITY OF THE LOW. PER COORD CALL WITH
OPC/MHX/LWX...WILL CONT TO INCRS WNDS WED WITH GUSTS TO LOW END GALE
XPCTD TO OVRSPRD CSTL WTRS S-N BEGINNING WED AFTRN ACROSS SRN CSTL
WTRS THEN WED NITE ACROSS ALL CSTL WTRS. WILL KEEP GUSTS CAPPED AT
30 KTS ACROSS THE CHES BAY AND CURRITUCK SND ATTM. CUD SEE GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENUF
THIS FAR OUT. WILL CAP SEA HEIGHT THIS FAR OUT BTWN 8-10 FT. CSTL
FLOODING MAY BECOME AN ISSUE BY MID WEEK AS WELL.
WILL UPDATE THE MARINE SECTION OF THE HWO FOR THE MID WEEK PRD.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CCW
NEAR TERM...CCW
SHORT TERM...CCW
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MPR
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 081758
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1258 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATER TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
FROM THE NORTH FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COULD NOT ASK FOR A BETTER SUNDAY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH AFTN TEMPS REACHING INTO THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S.
GENERALLY A CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. GOOD
RADIATING CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SEASONABLY COOL
EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE LWR-MID 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MONDAY...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY WXWISE...WITH HIGH CLOUDS
PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THE SFC RIDGE PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE AND MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF COAST STREAMS TOWARDS THE REGION. RISING HEIGHTS AGAIN
PORTEND TO A VERY WARM DAY ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS L/M70S
INLAND...U60S/L70S COASTAL AREAS.
TUESDAY...
MODELS STILL HAVING PROBLEMS RESOLVING INTERACTION BETWEEN
(EXTRATROPICAL) SFC TROUGH OVER WESTERN GULF COAST...HURRICANE IDA
AND AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM (GREAT LAKES) TROUGH/APPROACHING
COLD FRONT TO THE WNW.
GFS/NAM CAN AGREE IN DEPICTING INCREASING CLOUDS AS OVERRUNNING
MOISTURE INCREMENTALLY RISES LATE MONDAY NIGHT/ERY TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE H5-85
LAYER THAT WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME BEFORE ANY MEASURABLE PCPN
OCCURS...SO HV LEFT FORECAST DRY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR TUESDAY IS STILL A BIT LOWER THAN AVERAGE
WITH MODELS STILL HAVING TROUBLE DEPICTING LOCATION (AND COVERAGE)
OF BEST POPS. GFS/GEM/ECMWF ALL DEPICT A GENERALLY WET
AFTERNOON/EVENING TUESDAY...WITH THE NAM/SREF SIGNIFICANTLY LESS
AGGRESSIVE WITH POPS AND QPF. FOR NOW...UNTIL BETTER
MODEL CONSENSUS CAN BE REACHED...HV DECIDED TO TAKE A HYBRID OF THE
TWO SOLUTIONS. WL PLAY ABOUT A QUARTER TO A HALF OF THE VERY WET
GFS SOLUTION FOR TOTAL QPF...AND WILL TREND TOWARDS THE SLOWER
GEM/NAM TIMING WITH THE IDEA THAT SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HELD ON TO SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES
OFFSHORE. 1030+ MB RIDGE BUILDS INTO ERN CONUS FOR REST OF FCST
PRD. P-GRDNT BTWN DEEPENING LOW OVR NEW ENGLAND AND THIS HIGH WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN BREEZY TO WNDY CNDTNS AT THE COAST. DRY AND
SEASONABLE CNDTNS XPCTD WITH A SLOW WRMUP BY NXT WEEKEND. HIGHS
WED IN THE 50S...NR 60 THU AND INTO THE 60S FRI AND SAT. LOWS IN
THE 30S AND 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AKQ FORECAST AREA IS RESULTING IN
LGT AND VRBL WINDS. SKIES REMAIN CLR IN THE TAFS ALTHOUGH THE NAM
INDICATES SOME HIGH CLOUDS ENTERING THE PICTURE DURG THE DAY MON.
THE EARLIER TAF FOR SBY HAD 2 MILES BR AFT 06Z. THE MAV HAS IFR FOG
BUT MODEL DATA IS LIKELY CONTAMINATED BY THE PREVIOUS LOCATION OF
THE SENSOR. BOTH MOS FCSTS HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPR 30S...
ABOUT 5 DEGREES LWR THAN OUR OFFICIAL FCST. WILL KEEP THEM 7+ MILES
FOR NOW.
VFR WILL CONTINUE INTO TUE BUT THINGS GO DOWNHILL FROM THERE.
VARIOUS MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND MIDWEEK
OFF EITHER THE CAROLINA OR MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
STRONG NE TO E WINDS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF WIDESPREAD PCPN AND AREAS OF IFR BY WED AND POSSIBLY THU. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
SSW WNDS CONTG TO GRDLY DCRS...SEAS SUBSIDE...(ERY) THIS MRNG.
OTRW...HI PRES INVOF RGN TDA/TNGT...B4 SLIDING OFFSHR FOR MON/MON
NGT. WNDS GRDLY BCMG ONSHR...THOUGH RMNG AOB 10 KT ERY IN THE WK.
MDL DISAGREEMENT FOR TUE/WED PD AS PSBL LO PRES PASS NR OR RMNS S OF
WTRS. WL BLEND LATEST SHORT TERM GUID/FCST W/ CURRENT MIDWEEK FCST
FOR NOW.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...CCW/MAM
SHORT TERM...CCW/MAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MPR/SMF
000
FXUS61 KRNK 081730
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1230 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE MONDAY.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IDA WILL STREAM NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA
BY TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE FOR MID AND LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE INITIAL CONDITIONS FOR TEMPERATURE AND
WINDS ON THE UPDATE FOR TODAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE
IN CONTROL TODAY...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ANTICIPATE THE MAX TEMPERATURE AT
BLUEFIELD COULD RISE TO NEAR RECORD READINGS THIS AFTERNOON.
CENTER OF THE 5H RIDGE OVER THE SE STATES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY WITH EVEN HIGHER HEIGHTS AND WARMER 85H TEMPS THAN
SATURDAY. MAY AGAIN SEE A FEW BOUTS OF CI THRU THE RIDGE...OTRW
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS THE MAIN ASPECT THIS AFTERNOON WITH MANY
LOCATIONS WELL INTO THE 70S. HOWEVER LACK OF GOOD WEST/SW FLOW PER
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD KEEP READINGS IN THE
BALLPARK DESPITE HEATING OF DRY AIR. THUS WILL RAISE HIGHS A BIT
ABOVE MOS MOST SPOTS ESPCLY SINCE STARTING WARMER MOST LOCATIONS
THIS MORNING WHILE GUIDANCE WAS A LITTLE COOL ON SATURDAY AS WELL.
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT BUT ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE STILL
PREVAILS FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO CONTINUE. SHIELD OF HIGH CLOUDS
MAY BE NEAR THE SW ZONES LATE AS HIGH LEVEL RH SHEARS NE FROM THE
GULF COAST BUT LIMITED BY DRYNESS ALOFT. LOW TEMPS AGAIN A TRICKY
SCENARIO GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK BUBBLE HIGH TO REDEVELOP OVER
THE EAST ALLOWING LOWER ELEVATION DECOUPLING WHILE SOME LIGHT
SOUTHERLY MIXING PERSISTS ON THE RIDGES. COULD EASILY SEE AN EVEN
LARGER SPREAD OF 20-25 DEGS ACROSS A SHORT DISTANCE BETWEEN
RIDGETOPS AND VALLEYS SO OPENED UP THE RANGE MORE WITH 50S UP TOP
AND 37-45 BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON MONDAY...WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE DAY WHERE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS THE
ENTIRE AREA A DRY AND MILD FORECAST. MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN STREAMING NORTH INTO THE
AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS ENTERING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ARE EITHER
VERY LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. 00Z GFS...GEM AND
ECMWF ARE GENEROUS ON THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL IMPACT
THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE INTERACTION OF THE
ADVANCING TROPICAL MOISTURE AND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE ENTERING
THE REGION. THE NAM IS SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER WITH PRECIP ENTERING THE
AREA...WITH THE FIRST DROPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FORECAST WILL
REFLECT A SOLUTION MORE IN THE LINE WITH THE FASTER SOLUTIONS...BUT
STILL WILL BE ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE REGARDING THE POPS AND QPF.
WILL CLEAR PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING TO THE AREA. IF THE SLOWER NAM ENDS UP BEING ON
TARGET A SLOWER ARRIVAL...WEDNESDAY WOULD NEED TO HAVE SOME POPS IN
IT. LIKEWISE...IF THE GEM IS ON TRACK WITH ITS SLOWER
DEPARTURE...WEDNESDAY WOULD NEED TO HAVE LINGERING SHOWERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW THURSDAY AIDED BY
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE POTENTIAL DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE. THIS SHOULD KEEP DRY WEATHER IN PLACE THU INTO FRIDAY AS
WELL GIVEN STRONG S/W RIDGING OFF BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF. THIS WILL
ALSO RESULT IN LARGE DIURNAL SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES AGAIN ESPCLY
BY THU/THU NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE ABOUT OVERHEAD. NEXT FAST MOVING
NORTHERN STREAM S/W TROF WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE NW BY
SATURDAY WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AROUND THE DEPARTING RIDGE
OFFSHORE. THIS MAY BRING A FEW PRE-FRONTAL SHRA TO THE SW DURING
SATURDAY BUT GIVEN SUCH HIGH HEIGHTS WILL OPT FOR ONLY SILENT 20
POPS ON DAY 7 AS MOISTURE LOOKS QUITE ANEMIC ATTM. TEMPS COOL THU
INTO THU NIGHT BUT REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY/SAT ONCE
THE FLOW BECOMES MORE WEST/SW BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE AREA MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
MONDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALSO
RESULT IN A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CEILINGS WILL LOWER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT COMING
THROUGH THE AREA COMBINED WITH MOISTURE FROM IDA WILL BRING THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES OF 25 TO 30 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL
START TO INCREASE ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 11/8...
ROANOKE.....79...1975
LYNCHBRUG...76...1987
DANVILLE....78...2005
BLACKSBURG..78...1975
BLUEFIELD...74...1994
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH/REB
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...JH/REB
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...
000
FXUS61 KLWX 081549
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1049 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE
AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT TOO MUCH TO SAY HERE. JUST WENT OUTSIDE AND COULDN`T FIND A
CLOUD IN THE SKY...WHICH WILL BE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE WHOLE CWFA.
12Z IAD RAOB SHOWED STRONG THERMAL INVERSION IN THE NEAREST 1 KFT
AGL. DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM QUITE FAST OVER THE
NEXT FEW HRS. MAX TEMPS GENERALLY AROUND 70F WITH A FEW SPOTS
ACROSS THE C FOOTHILLS/NRN PIEDMONT AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS RISING
INTO THE MID 70S.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY. ANY PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS NEAR THE RIDGES/HIGHLANDS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNRISE...PAVING THE WAY FOR A SUNNY DAY AS RIDGE ENHANCED
DRY/SUBSIDING AIR DOMINATES. NORMAL HIGHS ARE AROUND 60 FOR MOST
PLACES. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE
RIDGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
RIDGE SLIDES EAST TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THE BULK OF THE
NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS PERHAPS MOVING IN LATE ON THE
BACK OF THE RIDGE. SOME COOLING WILL OCCUR TONIGHT BUT MINS WILL
STILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND PERHAPS HIGHEST OVER THE
RIDGES DUE TO THE INVERSION.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SLY FLOW PRVLS MON...CONTG ABOVE NRML TEMPS. FOR TUE INTO WED...FCST
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON EVOLUTION OF HURRICANE IDA AND SRN STREAM STORM
SYSTEM PROGGED TO MOVE ACRS SE US. FOR NOW WILL PLAN ON THIS SYSTEM
REMAINING S OF THE CWA...WITH MID-ATLC SANDWICHED BTWN THE SRN STORM
AND STRONG UPR SHRTWV DIGGING OUT OF GREAT LAKES INTO NE CONUS. WITH
MOISTURE TRAPPED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...LOW POPS TUE/TUE NGT WITH
FROPA...BCMG BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER WED/THU. HIPRES BUILDS IN BEHIND
FRONT THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FOR THE WKND.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIPRES RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS AND LGT
WINDS TO THE TERMINALS FOR THE REST OF TDA AND TNGT.
HIPRES DOMINATES INTO ERY NEXT WK...WITH VFR CONDS THRU MON NGT.
COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY...THOUGH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CIG/VSBY. CLEARING SKIES AND BREEZY CONDS FOR
WED.
&&
.MARINE...
NO CONCERNS ON THE WATERS TDA AND TNGT AS HIPRES REMAINS IN
CONTROL. WINDS WILL BE LGT TDA.
NO MARINE ISSUES XCPD UNTIL LATE TUE NGT AFTER COLD FRONT PASSES
OVER THE WATER. A LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL CREATE WINDY
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
LIKELY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW
PRESSURE...GALE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE PSBL. BY FRIDAY...PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX ENOUGH TO DIMINISH THE THREAT FOR SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KLEIN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..PELOQUIN/SBK
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 081525
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1025 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATER TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
FROM THE NORTH FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COULD NOT ASK FOR A BETTER SUNDAY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH AFTN TEMPS REACHING INTO THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S.
GENERALLY A CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. GOOD
RADIATING CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SEASONABLY COOL
EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE LWR-MID 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MONDAY...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY WXWISE...WITH HIGH CLOUDS
PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THE SFC RIDGE PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE AND MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF COAST STREAMS TOWARDS THE REGION. RISING HEIGHTS AGAIN
PORTEND TO A VERY WARM DAY ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS L/M70S
INLAND...U60S/L70S COASTAL AREAS.
TUESDAY...
MODELS STILL HAVING PROBLEMS RESOLVING INTERACTION BETWEEN
(EXTRATROPICAL) SFC TROUGH OVER WESTERN GULF COAST...HURRICANE IDA
AND AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM (GREAT LAKES) TROUGH/APPROACHING
COLD FRONT TO THE WNW.
GFS/NAM CAN AGREE IN DEPICTING INCREASING CLOUDS AS OVERRUNNING
MOISTURE INCREMENTALLY RISES LATE MONDAY NIGHT/ERY TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE H5-85
LAYER THAT WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME BEFORE ANY MEASURABLE PCPN
OCCURS...SO HV LEFT FORECAST DRY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR TUESDAY IS STILL A BIT LOWER THAN AVERAGE
WITH MODELS STILL HAVING TROUBLE DEPICTING LOCATION (AND COVERAGE)
OF BEST POPS. GFS/GEM/ECMWF ALL DEPICT A GENERALLY WET
AFTERNOON/EVENING TUESDAY...WITH THE NAM/SREF SIGNIFICANTLY LESS
AGGRESSIVE WITH POPS AND QPF. FOR NOW...UNTIL BETTER
MODEL CONSENSUS CAN BE REACHED...HV DECIDED TO TAKE A HYBRID OF THE
TWO SOLUTIONS. WL PLAY ABOUT A QUARTER TO A HALF OF THE VERY WET
GFS SOLUTION FOR TOTAL QPF...AND WILL TREND TOWARDS THE SLOWER
GEM/NAM TIMING WITH THE IDEA THAT SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HELD ON TO SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES
OFFSHORE. 1030+ MB RIDGE BUILDS INTO ERN CONUS FOR REST OF FCST
PRD. P-GRDNT BTWN DEEPENING LOW OVR NEW ENGLAND AND THIS HIGH WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN BREEZY TO WNDY CNDTNS AT THE COAST. DRY AND
SEASONABLE CNDTNS XPCTD WITH A SLOW WRMUP BY NXT WEEKEND. HIGHS
WED IN THE 50S...NR 60 THU AND INTO THE 60S FRI AND SAT. LOWS IN
THE 30S AND 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR THROUGH MON NGT...PTNTL FOR MVFR CIGS TUE INTO WED. LLVL FLO FM
THE SSW (AOB 10 KT) FOR A WHL TDA...B4 BCMG LGT/VRBL FM THIS AFTN
THROUGH TNGT. GENLY SLY WNDS XPCTD MON INTO MON NGT W/ SPDS RMNG AOB
10 KT.
&&
.MARINE...
SSW WNDS CONTG TO GRDLY DCRS...SEAS SUBSIDE...(ERY) THIS MRNG.
OTRW...HI PRES INVOF RGN TDA/TNGT...B4 SLIDING OFFSHR FOR MON/MON
NGT. WNDS GRDLY BCMG ONSHR...THOUGH RMNG AOB 10 KT ERY IN THE WK.
MDL DISAGREEMENT FOR TUE/WED PD AS PSBL LO PRES PASS NR OR RMNS S OF
WTRS. WL BLEND LATEST SHORT TERM GUID/FCST W/ CURRENT MIDWEEK FCST
FOR NOW.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...CCW/MAM
SHORT TERM...CCW/MAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...AM
MARINE...MPR/SMF
000
FXUS61 KRNK 081439
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
939 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE MONDAY.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IDA WILL STREAM NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA
BY TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE FOR MID AND LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE INITIAL CONDITIONS FOR TEMPERATURE AND
WINDS ON THE UPDATE FOR TODAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE
IN CONTROL TODAY...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ANTICIPATE THE MAX TEMPERATURE AT
BLUEFIELD COULD RISE TO NEAR RECORD READINGS THIS AFTERNOON.
CENTER OF THE 5H RIDGE OVER THE SE STATES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY WITH EVEN HIGHER HEIGHTS AND WARMER 85H TEMPS THAN
SATURDAY. MAY AGAIN SEE A FEW BOUTS OF CI THRU THE RIDGE...OTRW NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPS THE MAIN ASPECT THIS AFTERNOON WITH MANY LOCATIONS
WELL INTO THE 70S. HOWEVER LACK OF GOOD WEST/SW FLOW PER SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD KEEP READINGS IN THE BALLPARK
DESPITE HEATING OF DRY AIR. THUS WILL RAISE HIGHS A BIT ABOVE MOS
MOST SPOTS ESPCLY SINCE STARTING WARMER MOST LOCATIONS THIS
MORNING WHILE GUIDANCE WAS A LITTLE COOL ON SATURDAY AS WELL.
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT BUT ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE STILL
PREVAILS FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO CONTINUE. SHIELD OF HIGH CLOUDS
MAY BE NEAR THE SW ZONES LATE AS HIGH LEVEL RH SHEARS NE FROM THE
GULF COAST BUT LIMITED BY DRYNESS ALOFT. LOW TEMPS AGAIN A TRICKY
SCENARIO GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK BUBBLE HIGH TO REDEVELOP OVER
THE EAST ALLOWING LOWER ELEVATION DECOUPLING WHILE SOME LIGHT
SOUTHERLY MIXING PERSISTS ON THE RIDGES. COULD EASILY SEE AN EVEN
LARGER SPREAD OF 20-25 DEGS ACROSS A SHORT DISTANCE BETWEEN
RIDGETOPS AND VALLEYS SO OPENED UP THE RANGE MORE WITH 50S UP TOP
AND 37-45 BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON MONDAY...WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE DAY WHERE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS THE
ENTIRE AREA A DRY AND MILD FORECAST. MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN STREAMING NORTH INTO THE
AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS ENTERING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ARE EITHER
VERY LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. 00Z GFS...GEM AND
ECMWF ARE GENEROUS ON THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL IMPACT
THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE INTERACTION OF THE
ADVANCING TROPICAL MOISTURE AND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE ENTERING
THE REGION. THE NAM IS SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER WITH PRECIP ENTERING THE
AREA...WITH THE FIRST DROPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FORECAST WILL
REFLECT A SOLUTION MORE IN THE LINE WITH THE FASTER SOLUTIONS...BUT
STILL WILL BE ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE REGARDING THE POPS AND QPF.
WILL CLEAR PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING TO THE AREA. IF THE SLOWER NAM ENDS UP BEING ON
TARGET A SLOWER ARRIVAL...WEDNESDAY WOULD NEED TO HAVE SOME POPS IN
IT. LIKEWISE...IF THE GEM IS ON TRACK WITH ITS SLOWER
DEPARTURE...WEDNESDAY WOULD NEED TO HAVE LINGERING SHOWERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW THURSDAY AIDED BY
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE POTENTIAL DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE. THIS SHOULD KEEP DRY WEATHER IN PLACE THU INTO FRIDAY AS
WELL GIVEN STRONG S/W RIDGING OFF BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF. THIS WILL
ALSO RESULT IN LARGE DIURNAL SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES AGAIN ESPCLY
BY THU/THU NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE ABOUT OVERHEAD. NEXT FAST MOVING
NORTHERN STREAM S/W TROF WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE NW BY
SATURDAY WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AROUND THE DEPARTING RIDGE
OFFSHORE. THIS MAY BRING A FEW PRE-FRONTAL SHRA TO THE SW DURING
SATURDAY BUT GIVEN SUCH HIGH HEIGHTS WILL OPT FOR ONLY SILENT 20
POPS ON DAY 7 AS MOISTURE LOOKS QUITE ANEMIC ATTM. TEMPS COOL THU
INTO THU NIGHT BUT REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY/SAT ONCE
THE FLOW BECOMES MORE WEST/SW BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BOTH
SURFACE AND ALOFT LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA. A LOW LVL JET MAY
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME EARLY MORNING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR BEFORE
WINDS DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE. CEILINGS WILL LOWER MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH THE AREA COMBINED WITH
MOISTURE FROM IDA WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES OF 25 TO 30 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL
START TO INCREASE ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 11/8...
ROANOKE.....79...1975
LYNCHBRUG...76...1987
DANVILLE....78...2005
BLACKSBURG..78...1975
BLUEFIELD...74...1994
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH/REB
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...JH/REB/WP
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...
000
FXUS61 KRNK 081102
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
602 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE MONDAY.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IDA WILL STREAM NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA
BY TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE FOR MID AND LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CENTER OF THE 5H RIDGE OVER THE SE STATES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY WITH EVEN HIGHER HEIGHTS AND WARMER 85H TEMPS THAN
SATURDAY. MAY AGAIN SEE A FEW BOUTS OF CI THRU THE RIDGE...OTRW NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPS THE MAIN ASPECT THIS AFTERNOON WITH MANY LOCATIONS
WELL INTO THE 70S. HOWEVER LACK OF GOOD WEST/SW FLOW PER SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD KEEP READINGS IN THE BALLPARK
DESPITE HEATING OF DRY AIR. THUS WILL RAISE HIGHS A BIT ABOVE MOS
MOST SPOTS ESPCLY SINCE STARTING WARMER MOST LOCATIONS THIS
MORNING WHILE GUIDANCE WAS A LITTLE COOL ON SATURDAY AS WELL.
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT BUT ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE STILL
PREVAILS FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO CONTINUE. SHIELD OF HIGH CLOUDS
MAY BE NEAR THE SW ZONES LATE AS HIGH LEVEL RH SHEARS NE FROM THE
GULF COAST BUT LIMITED BY DRYNESS ALOFT. LOW TEMPS AGAIN A TRICKY
SCENARIO GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK BUBBLE HIGH TO REDEVELOP OVER
THE EAST ALLOWING LOWER ELEVATION DECOUPLING WHILE SOME LIGHT
SOUTHERLY MIXING PERSISTS ON THE RIDGES. COULD EASILY SEE AN EVEN
LARGER SPREAD OF 20-25 DEGS ACROSS A SHORT DISTANCE BETWEEN
RIDGETOPS AND VALLEYS SO OPENED UP THE RANGE MORE WITH 50S UP TOP
AND 37-45 BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON MONDAY...WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE DAY WHERE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS THE
ENTIRE AREA A DRY AND MILD FORECAST. MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN STREAMING NORTH INTO THE
AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS ENTERING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ARE EITHER
VERY LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. 00Z GFS...GEM AND
ECMWF ARE GENEROUS ON THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL IMPACT
THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE INTERACTION OF THE
ADVANCING TROPICAL MOISTURE AND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE ENTERING
THE REGION. THE NAM IS SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER WITH PRECIP ENTERING THE
AREA...WITH THE FIRST DROPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FORECAST WILL
REFLECT A SOLUTION MORE IN THE LINE WITH THE FASTER SOLUTIONS...BUT
STILL WILL BE ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE REGARDING THE POPS AND QPF.
WILL CLEAR PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING TO THE AREA. IF THE SLOWER NAM ENDS UP BEING ON
TARGET A SLOWER ARRIVAL...WEDNESDAY WOULD NEED TO HAVE SOME POPS IN
IT. LIKEWISE...IF THE GEM IS ON TRACK WITH ITS SLOWER
DEPARTURE...WEDNESDAY WOULD NEED TO HAVE LINGERING SHOWERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW THURSDAY AIDED BY
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE POTENTIAL DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE. THIS SHOULD KEEP DRY WEATHER IN PLACE THU INTO FRIDAY AS
WELL GIVEN STRONG S/W RIDGING OFF BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF. THIS WILL
ALSO RESULT IN LARGE DIURNAL SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES AGAIN ESPCLY
BY THU/THU NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE ABOUT OVERHEAD. NEXT FAST MOVING
NORTHERN STREAM S/W TROF WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE NW BY
SATURDAY WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AROUND THE DEPARTING RIDGE
OFFSHORE. THIS MAY BRING A FEW PRE-FRONTAL SHRA TO THE SW DURING
SATURDAY BUT GIVEN SUCH HIGH HEIGHTS WILL OPT FOR ONLY SILENT 20
POPS ON DAY 7 AS MOISTURE LOOKS QUITE ANEMIC ATTM. TEMPS COOL THU
INTO THU NIGHT BUT REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY/SAT ONCE
THE FLOW BECOMES MORE WEST/SW BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BOTH
SURFACE AND ALOFT LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA. A LOW LVL JET MAY
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME EARLY MORNING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR BEFORE
WINDS DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE. CEILINGS WILL LOWER MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH THE AREA COMBINED WITH
MOISTURE FROM IDA WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES OF 25 TO 30 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL
START TO INCREASE ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 11/8...
ROANOKE.....79...1975
LYNCHBRUG...76...1987
DANVILLE....78...2005
BLACKSBURG..78...1975
BLUEFIELD...74...1994
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...JH/REB/WP
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 080913
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
413 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATER TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
FROM THE NORTH FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING. ALOFT...MID LEVEL RIDGING WAS NOTED
ALONG THE GULF COAST. TO THE SOUTH...HURRICANE IDA WAS ANALYZED
JUST SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. SEE THE LATEST PRODUCTS FROM
THE NHC FOR MORE INFORMATION ON IDA.
VERY LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED IN GOING FORECAST FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. MID/UPR RIDGE WILL DEEPEN AND BUILD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS/SOUTHERN MID-ATL...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED
JUST OFFSHORE. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO A STELLAR FALL DAY ACROSS
THE AREA W/NEARLY MAXIMUM INSOLATION AND MODERATING TEMPS ACROSS
THE CWA. H92 TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF +13 TO +15 C SHOULD EASILY
YIELD HIGHS ABOUT 1 STANDARD DEV ABOVE NORMAL...INTO THE UPR 60S
ALONG THE COAST TO LOWER 70S INLAND UNDER MAINLY SUNNY SKIES.
TONIGHT...
GENERALLY A CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. GOOD
RADIATING CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SEASONABLY COOL
EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE LWR-MID 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MONDAY...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY WXWISE...WITH HIGH CLOUDS
PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THE SFC RIDGE PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE AND MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF COAST STREAMS TOWARDS THE REGION. RISING HEIGHTS AGAIN
PORTEND TO A VERY WARM DAY ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS L/M70S
INLAND...U60S/L70S COASTAL AREAS.
TUESDAY...
MODELS STILL HAVING PROBLEMS RESOLVING INTERACTION BETWEEN
(EXTRATROPICAL) SFC TROUGH OVER WESTERN GULF COAST...HURRICANE IDA
AND AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM (GREAT LAKES) TROUGH/APPROACHING
COLD FRONT TO THE WNW.
GFS/NAM CAN AGREE IN DEPICTING INCREASING CLOUDS AS OVERRUNNING
MOISTURE INCREMENTALLY RISES LATE MONDAY NIGHT/ERY TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE H5-85
LAYER THAT WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME BEFORE ANY MEASURABLE PCPN
OCCURS...SO HV LEFT FORECAST DRY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR TUESDAY IS STILL A BIT LOWER THAN AVERAGE
WITH MODELS STILL HAVING TROUBLE DEPICTING LOCATION (AND COVERAGE)
OF BEST POPS. GFS/GEM/ECMWF ALL DEPICT A GENERALLY WET
AFTERNOON/EVENING TUESDAY...WITH THE NAM/SREF SIGNIFICANTLY LESS
AGGRESSIVE WITH POPS AND QPF. FOR NOW...UNTIL BETTER
MODEL CONSENSUS CAN BE REACHED...HV DECIDED TO TAKE A HYBRID OF THE
TWO SOLUTIONS. WL PLAY ABOUT A QUARTER TO A HALF OF THE VERY WET
GFS SOLUTION FOR TOTAL QPF...AND WILL TREND TOWARDS THE SLOWER
GEM/NAM TIMING WITH THE IDEA THAT SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HELD ON TO SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES
OFFSHORE. 1030+ MB RIDGE BUILDS INTO ERN CONUS FOR REST OF FCST
PRD. P-GRDNT BTWN DEEPENING LOW OVR NEW ENGLAND AND THIS HIGH WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN BREEZY TO WNDY CNDTNS AT THE COAST. DRY AND
SEASONABLE CNDTNS XPCTD WITH A SLOW WRMUP BY NXT WEEKEND. HIGHS
WED IN THE 50S...NR 60 THU AND INTO THE 60S FRI AND SAT. LOWS IN
THE 30S AND 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR THROUGH MON NGT...PTNTL FOR MVFR CIGS TUE INTO WED. LLVL FLO FM
THE SSW (AOB 10 KT) FOR A WHL TDA...B4 BCMG LGT/VRBL FM THIS AFTN
THROUGH TNGT. GENLY SLY WNDS XPCTD MON INTO MON NGT W/ SPDS RMNG AOB
10 KT.
&&
.MARINE...
SSW WNDS CONTG TO GRDLY DCRS...SEAS SUBSIDE...(ERY) THIS MRNG.
OTRW...HI PRES INVOF RGN TDA/TNGT...B4 SLIDING OFFSHR FOR MON/MON
NGT. WNDS GRDLY BCMG ONSHR...THOUGH RMNG AOB 10 KT ERY IN THE WK.
MDL DISAGREEMENT FOR TUE/WED PD AS PSBL LO PRES PASS NR OR RMNS S OF
WTRS. WL BLEND LATEST SHORT TERM GUID/FCST W/ CURRENT MIDWEEK FCST
FOR NOW.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...CCW/MAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...AM
MARINE...MPR/SMF
000
FXUS61 KLWX 080840
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
340 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE
AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY. ANY PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS NEAR THE RIDGES/HIGHLANDS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNRISE...PAVING THE WAY FOR A SUNNY DAY AS RIDGE ENHANCED
DRY/SUBSIDING AIR DOMINATES. NORMAL HIGHS ARE AROUND 60 FOR MOST
PLACES. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE
RIDGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
RIDGE SLIDES EAST TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THE BULK OF THE
NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS PERHAPS MOVING IN LATE ON THE
BACK OF THE RIDGE. SOME COOLING WILL OCCUR TONIGHT BUT MINS WILL
STILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND PERHAPS HIGHEST OVER THE
RIDGES DUE TO THE INVERSION.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SLY FLOW PRVLS MON...CONTG ABOVE NRML TEMPS. FOR TUE INTO WED...FCST
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON EVOLUTION OF HURRICANE IDA AND SRN STREAM STORM
SYSTEM PROGGED TO MOVE ACRS SE US. FOR NOW WILL PLAN ON THIS SYSTEM
REMAINING S OF THE CWA...WITH MID-ATLC SANDWICHED BTWN THE SRN STORM
AND STRONG UPR SHRTWV DIGGING OUT OF GREAT LAKES INTO NE CONUS. WITH
MOISTURE TRAPPED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...LOW POPS TUE/TUE NGT WITH
FROPA...BCMG BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER WED/THU. HIPRES BUILDS IN BEHIND
FRONT THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FOR THE WKND.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR FORECAST THROUGH 30 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OFF THE
COAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD...LEADING TO A WIND
DIRECTION CHANGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. STILL...WEAK GRADIENT WILL MEANS
SPEEDS AOB 5 KT.
HIPRES DOMINATES INTO ERY NEXT WK...WITH VFR CONDS THRU MON NGT.
COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY...THOUGH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CIG/VSBY. CLEARING SKIES AND BREEZY CONDS FOR
WED.
&&
.MARINE...
GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS.
NO MARINE ISSUES XCPD UNTIL LATE TUE NGT AFTER COLD FRONT PASSES
OVER THE WATER. A LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL CREATE WINDY
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
LIKELY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW
PRESSURE...GALE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE PSBL. BY FRIDAY...PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX ENOUGH TO DIMINISH THE THREAT FOR SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PELOQUIN/SBK
NEAR TERM...PELOQUIN
SHORT TERM...PELOQUIN
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...PELOQUIN/SBK
MARINE...PELOQUIN/SBK
000
FXUS61 KRNK 080835
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
335 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE MONDAY.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IDA WILL STREAM NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA
BY TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE FOR MID AND LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CENTER OF THE 5H RIDGE OVER THE SE STATES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY WITH EVEN HIGHER HEIGHTS AND WARMER 85H TEMPS THAN
SATURDAY. MAY AGAIN SEE A FEW BOUTS OF CI THRU THE RIDGE...OTRW NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPS THE MAIN ASPECT THIS AFTERNOON WITH MANY LOCATIONS
WELL INTO THE 70S. HOWEVER LACK OF GOOD WEST/SW FLOW PER SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD KEEP READINGS IN THE BALLPARK
DESPITE HEATING OF DRY AIR. THUS WILL RAISE HIGHS A BIT ABOVE MOS
MOST SPOTS ESPCLY SINCE STARTING WARMER MOST LOCATIONS THIS
MORNING WHILE GUIDANCE WAS A LITTLE COOL ON SATURDAY AS WELL.
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT BUT ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE STILL
PREVAILS FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO CONTINUE. SHIELD OF HIGH CLOUDS
MAY BE NEAR THE SW ZONES LATE AS HIGH LEVEL RH SHEARS NE FROM THE
GULF COAST BUT LIMITED BY DRYNESS ALOFT. LOW TEMPS AGAIN A TRICKY
SCENARIO GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK BUBBLE HIGH TO REDEVELOP OVER
THE EAST ALLOWING LOWER ELEVATION DECOUPLING WHILE SOME LIGHT
SOUTHERLY MIXING PERSISTS ON THE RIDGES. COULD EASILY SEE AN EVEN
LARGER SPREAD OF 20-25 DEGS ACROSS A SHORT DISTANCE BETWEEN
RIDGETOPS AND VALLEYS SO OPENED UP THE RANGE MORE WITH 50S UP TOP
AND 37-45 BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON MONDAY...WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE DAY WHERE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS THE
ENTIRE AREA A DRY AND MILD FORECAST. MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN STREAMING NORTH INTO THE
AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS ENTERING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ARE EITHER
VERY LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. 00Z GFS...GEM AND
ECMWF ARE GENEROUS ON THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL IMPACT
THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE INTERACTION OF THE
ADVANCING TROPICAL MOISTURE AND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE ENTERING
THE REGION. THE NAM IS SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER WITH PRECIP ENTERING THE
AREA...WITH THE FIRST DROPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FORECAST WILL
REFLECT A SOLUTION MORE IN THE LINE WITH THE FASTER SOLUTIONS...BUT
STILL WILL BE ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE REGARDING THE POPS AND QPF.
WILL CLEAR PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING TO THE AREA. IF THE SLOWER NAM ENDS UP BEING ON
TARGET A SLOWER ARRIVAL...WEDNESDAY WOULD NEED TO HAVE SOME POPS IN
IT. LIKEWISE...IF THE GEM IS ON TRACK WITH ITS SLOWER
DEPARTURE...WEDNESDAY WOULD NEED TO HAVE LINGERING SHOWERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW THURSDAY AIDED BY
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE POTENTIAL DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE. THIS SHOULD KEEP DRY WEATHER IN PLACE THU INTO FRIDAY AS
WELL GIVEN STRONG S/W RIDGING OFF BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF. THIS WILL
ALSO RESULT IN LARGE DIURNAL SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES AGAIN ESPCLY
BY THU/THU NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE ABOUT OVERHEAD. NEXT FAST MOVING
NORTHERN STREAM S/W TROF WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE NW BY
SATURDAY WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AROUND THE DEPARTING RIDGE
OFFSHORE. THIS MAY BRING A FEW PRE-FRONTAL SHRA TO THE SW DURING
SATURDAY BUT GIVEN SUCH HIGH HEIGHTS WILL OPT FOR ONLY SILENT 20
POPS ON DAY 7 AS MOISTURE LOOKS QUITE ANEMIC ATTM. TEMPS COOL THU
INTO THU NIGHT BUT REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY/SAT ONCE
THE FLOW BECOMES MORE WEST/SW BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BOTH
SURFACE AND ALOFT LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA. A LOW LVL JET TONIGHT
WILL LEAD TO SOME LOW LVL WIND SHEAR ISSUES AT ROA/LWB. THIS LOW
LVL JET WILL EXIT BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE. CEILINGS WILL LOWER MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY WILL
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES OF 25 TO 30 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL
START TO INCREASE ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 11/8...
ROANOKE.....79...1975
LYNCHBRUG...76...1987
DANVILLE....78...2005
BLACKSBURG..78...1975
BLUEFIELD...74...1994
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JH/KK
AVIATION...REB/WP
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...
000
FXUS61 KRNK 080436
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1136 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DECOUPLING HAS TAKEN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA...OUTSIDE OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS HAS SENT TEMPS DOWN FASTER THAN
EXPECTED...AND WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SPLITTING OFF OVER THE MTNS
LATE TONIGHT WENT WITH COOLER LOWS IN THE VALLEYS. THE RIDGES
SUCH AS BLF AND URBAN AREAS LIKE ROANOKE ARE GOING TO EMBRACE
MILDER LOWS WHICH WERE ALREADY WELL FORECASTED.
ON SUNDAY FORECAST AREA IS UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE +11 TO +13 RANGE. WITH A DRY AIRMASS AND
LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER HIGHS TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY AS THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. MODELS WERE SHOWING LITTLE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE BELOW 700 MB UNTIL AFTER 12Z ON TUESDAY. SO KEPT ONLY A
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWER IN BEFORE 18Z TUESDAY. LITTLE CHANGE IN
GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. STILL SHOULD BE CROSSING
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA ON TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOLLOWED HPCGUIDE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WHICH WAS A BLEND OF ECMWF AND
GEFS. COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS OUR
REGION AND SHOULD EXIT AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD SHUNT
ALL DEEP MOISTURE TO THE SE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INCLUDING
WHATS LEFT OF IDA AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW ON
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH LARGE DIURNAL
SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES AGAIN ESPCLY BY THU/THU NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE
ABOUT OVERHEAD. NEXT FAST MOVING NORTHERN STREAM S/W TROF WILL BEGIN
TO APPROACH FROM THE NW BY FRIDAY WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AROUND
THE DEPARTING RIDGE OFFSHORE. THIS MAY BRING A FEW PRE-FRONTAL SHRA
TO THE SW DURING FRIDAY BUT GIVEN SUCH HIGH HEIGHTS WILL OPT TO
LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION. WITH RETURN FLOW BECOMING DEEPER WILL ALLOW
FOR LIGHT POPS ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BOTH
SURFACE AND ALOFT LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA. A LOW LVL JET TONIGHT
WILL LEAD TO SOME LOW LVL WIND SHEAR ISSUES AT ROA/LWB. THIS LOW
LVL JET WILL EXIT BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE. CEILINGS WILL LOWER MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY WILL
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES OF 25 TO 30 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL
START TO INCREASE ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...REB/WP
FIRE WEATHER...
000
FXUS61 KRNK 080258
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
958 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DECOUPLING HAS TAKEN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA...OUTSIDE OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS HAS SENT TEMPS DOWN FASTER THAN
EXPECTED...AND WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SPLITTING OFF OVER THE MTNS
LATE TONIGHT WENT WITH COOLER LOWS IN THE VALLEYS. THE RIDGES
SUCH AS BLF AND URBAN AREAS LIKE ROANOKE ARE GOING TO EMBRACE
MILDER LOWS WHICH WERE ALREADY WELL FORECASTED.
ON SUNDAY FORECAST AREA IS UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE +11 TO +13 RANGE. WITH A DRY AIRMASS AND
LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER HIGHS TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY AS THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. MODELS WERE SHOWING LITTLE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE BELOW 700 MB UNTIL AFTER 12Z ON TUESDAY. SO KEPT ONLY A
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWER IN BEFORE 18Z TUESDAY. LITTLE CHANGE IN
GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. STILL SHOULD BE CROSSING
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA ON TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOLLOWED HPCGUIDE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WHICH WAS A BLEND OF ECMWF AND
GEFS. COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS OUR
REGION AND SHOULD EXIT AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD SHUNT
ALL DEEP MOISTURE TO THE SE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INCLUDING
WHATS LEFT OF IDA AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW ON
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH LARGE DIURNAL
SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES AGAIN ESPCLY BY THU/THU NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE
ABOUT OVERHEAD. NEXT FAST MOVING NORTHERN STREAM S/W TROF WILL BEGIN
TO APPROACH FROM THE NW BY FRIDAY WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AROUND
THE DEPARTING RIDGE OFFSHORE. THIS MAY BRING A FEW PRE-FRONTAL SHRA
TO THE SW DURING FRIDAY BUT GIVEN SUCH HIGH HEIGHTS WILL OPT TO
LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION. WITH RETURN FLOW BECOMING DEEPER WILL ALLOW
FOR LIGHT POPS ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BOTH
SURFACE AND ALOFT LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA. A LOW LVL JET TONIGHT
WILL LEAD TO SOME LOW LVL WIND SHEAR ISSUES AT ROA/BLF/LWB AS AN
INVERSION SETS UP AT THE SFC. THIS LOW LVL JET WILL EXIT BEFORE
12Z SUNDAY.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE. CEILINGS WILL LOWER MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY WILL
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES OF 25 TO 30 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL
START TO INCREASE ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...REB/WP
FIRE WEATHER...
000
FXUS61 KLWX 080208
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
908 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE AREA
TOMORROW...BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
WOW. NOV NGT TIME WX DOESN`T GET TOO MUCH BETTER THAN THIS. IT IS
HARD FOR ME TO THINK OF A TIME WHEN THE NATL COMP RDR HAS BEEN SO
QUIET - NARY AN ECHO FM THE ATLC CST TO THE MIDWEST. SFC ANLYS
REVEALED 90 DEG AIR OVR WRN OK THIS AFTN...AND THE WARMER AIR IS
COMING E. CERTAINLY IT WON`T BE NEARLY THAT WARM...BUT NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS SHOULD BE MUCH WARMER THAN THE 2ND WK OF NOV NORMS OF THE
U50S FOR HIGHS. ENJOY.
PRVS DCSN...
HIPRES CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL SLOWLY BUILD
SEWD BUT REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE MID ATLANTIC WX PATTERN. WLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR FROM THE C CONUS INTO THE
REGION...RESULTING IN A FAIRLY STRONG THERMAL INVERSION IN THE
FIRST 3 KFT ABOVE THE GROUND. THIS INVERSION COMBINED WITH
MIXING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...WILL RESULT IN MUCH HIGHER MIN TEMPS COMPARED
TO COOLER SHELTERED VALLEYS. FCST LOWS RANGE FROM AROUND 40F IN
LOCATIONS BELOW 1 KFT TO NEAR 50F FOR ELEVATIONS AOA 2 KFT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SFC PRESSURE TROUGH WILL PUSH THRU BY THE ERY
IN THE PD. SFC FLOW WILL SHIFT NWLY IN WAKE OF TROUGH BUT WILL
BECOME LIGHT AS HIPRES RIDGE SETTLES OVRHD. WITH MSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND A WARMER AIRMASS IN PLACE...MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MU60S WITH A FEW SPOTS CLIMBING INTO THE L70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE
CWFA THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THE GFS IS NOW BRINGING MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THERE IS A WIDE SPREAD BETWEEN GUIDANCE NUMBERS
FOR THIS PERIOD...SO WILL OPT TO GO WITH PERSISTENCE AND KEEP THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND.
LOOKS LIKE UNTIL THE FROPA LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY TEMPS IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD REMAIN A BIT HIGHER THAN THE VALLEYS.
ALSO...BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY
AND EVEN INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /TNGT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TNGT AND SUN.
NO RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY/CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY. NOT MUCH
PRECIPITATION CAN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS BOUNDARY...BUT BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
PLAN IS TO LET SCA EXPIRE AT 02Z. WINDS RELAX LATE THIS EVNG.
WINDS WILL BECOME LGT OVRNGT INTO SUN AS HIPRES SETTLES OVRHD.
SOME CHANNELING UP THE BAY IS POSSIBLE LATER TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND GUST POTENTIAL MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR...WINDS
ALOFT COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES DURING THIS
PERIOD.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ530>534-537>543.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...JRK/NWL
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 080136
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
836 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM THE NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH MORE TYPICAL LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
(UPR 30S TO LOW 40S).
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLR-MO/CLR SKIES IN STORE FOR SUN AND MON AS A LARGE HIGH PRES
SYSTEM HOLDS OVER THE RGN. MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S ALONG THE
COAST TO LOWER 70S INLAND. LOWS IN THE LWR-MID 40S SUN NIGHT
AND UPR 40S TO NEAR 50 MON NIGHT.
NAM/GFS DIFFER ON OVERALL SOLN WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN TWO
HIGH PRES SYSTEMS. HAVE WENT WITH THE SLWR SOLN LATER ON TUE.
CURRENTLY HOLDING DRY CONDITIONS WITH ITS PASSAGE. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH INTO THE UPR 60S/LWR 70S FOR MOST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOLLOWED THE ECMWF SOLN THIS FCST PACKAGE. GFS NOT CONSISTENT IN ITS
HANDLING OF SRN MSTR. CDFRNT MOVES OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT. WILL KEEP
SLGHT CHC POPS IN FOR NOW (LOW CHC ACROSS NC CNTYS ALLOWING FOR ANY
SRN MSTR THAT MAY MAKE IT THAT FAR N). FA MAY END UP IN THE "SPLIT"
ZONE BTWN MSTR TO THE N & S.
1030+ MB RIDGE BUILDS INTO ERN CONUS FOR REST OF FCST PRD. P-GRDNT
BTWN DEEPENING LOW OVR NEW ENGLAND AND THIS HIGH WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN BREEZY TO WNDY CNDTNS AT THE COAST. DRY AND SEASONABLE CNDTNS
XPCTD WITH A SLOW WRMUP BY NXT WEEKEND. HIGHS WED IN THE 50S...NR 60
THU AND INTO THE 60S FRI AND SAT. LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES AS VFR WL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. WITH
HI PRES JUST OFF THE MID ATLC CST...EXPECT LGT S TO SW WNDS
THROUGH SUN. COULD SEE MORE OF A SE COMPONENT ALNG CSTL TAF SITES
SUN AFTN. A COLD FRONT MVS ACRS THE AREA TUE AFTN/EVNG BRINGING A
SLGT CHC OF PCPN WITH IT. HI PRES BLDS INTO THE AREA FM THE W
WED WITH DRY CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
BOTH RUC/WRF INDCTG A SVRL HR PRD OF INCRSD WNDS (15-20KTS) ACROSS
THE CHES BAY THIS EVE. SO AFTR COORD WITH LWX...DECIDED TO HOIST SCA
HEADLINES ACROSS THE MIDDLE CHES BAY THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS. WNDS
THEN PROGGED TO DMNSH BY MORNING.
ALSO, WINDS CURRENTLY GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KTS ACROSS THE NRN
COASTAL WATERS, AND SEAS HAVE REACHED 5.2 FT AT BUOY 09 AS OF 1Z.
18Z SWAN DID AN EXCELLANT JOB OF CATCHING THIS INCREASE IN SEAS
OVR THE NRN TWO COASTAL ZONES, AND HAVE THUS RE-POPULATED SEAS
WITH SWAN GUIDANCE AND HOISTED A SCA FOR OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRS BUILDS ACROSS THE MARINE AREA SUN THRU TUE WITH WNDS AOB 15
KTS AND SEAS 2-4 FT. RETURN SRLY FLOW BEGINS TO INCRS A BIT TUE
AHEAD OF NXT CDFRNT. THIS FRNT PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUE
NITE. WNDS SHFT INTO N-NW AND INCRS INTO SCA RANGE BY LATE TUE NITE.
P-GRDNT BTWN DEEPENING LOW OVR THE NE AND 1030+MB HIGH BLDG E CUD
RESULT IN LOW END GALES ACROSS THE CSTL WTRS BY ERLY WED. WILL CAP
GUSTS AT 30 KTS FOR NOW.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ630-631-650-
652.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CCW
NEAR TERM...CCW
SHORT TERM...CCW
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...AM
MARINE...MPR/SMF
000
FXUS61 KRNK 072337
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
637 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT WINDS TO DECOUPLE
QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS IN THE VALLEYS. MODELS
WERE SHOWING A 30-40 KNOT JET ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTY WARNING
AREA. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH THE KEEP MIXING GOING ON THE RIDGES.
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WILL BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
ON SUNDAY FORECAST AREA IS UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE +11 TO +13 RANGE. WITH A DRY AIRMASS AND
LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER HIGHS TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY AS THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. MODELS WERE SHOWING LITTLE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE BELOW 700 MB UNTIL AFTER 12Z ON TUESDAY. SO KEPT ONLY A
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWER IN BEFORE 18Z TUESDAY. LITTLE CHANGE IN
GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. STILL SHOULD BE CROSSING
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA ON TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOLLOWED HPCGUIDE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WHICH WAS A BLEND OF ECMWF AND
GEFS. COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS OUR
REGION AND SHOULD EXIT AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD SHUNT
ALL DEEP MOISTURE TO THE SE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INCLUDING
WHATS LEFT OF IDA AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW ON
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH LARGE DIURNAL
SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES AGAIN ESPCLY BY THU/THU NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE
ABOUT OVERHEAD. NEXT FAST MOVING NORTHERN STREAM S/W TROF WILL BEGIN
TO APPROACH FROM THE NW BY FRIDAY WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AROUND
THE DEPARTING RIDGE OFFSHORE. THIS MAY BRING A FEW PRE-FRONTAL SHRA
TO THE SW DURING FRIDAY BUT GIVEN SUCH HIGH HEIGHTS WILL OPT TO
LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION. WITH RETURN FLOW BECOMING DEEPER WILL ALLOW
FOR LIGHT POPS ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BOTH
SURFACE AND ALOFT LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA. A LOW LVL JET TONIGHT
WILL LEAD TO SOME LOW LVL WIND SHEAR ISSUES AT ROA/BLF/LWB AS AN
INVERSION SETS UP AT THE SFC. THIS LOW LVL JET WILL EXIT BEFORE
12Z SUNDAY.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE. CEILINGS WILL LOWER MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY WILL
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES OF 25 TO 30 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL
START TO INCREASE ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...REB/WP
FIRE WEATHER...
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 072333
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
633 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM THE NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH MORE TYPICAL LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
(UPR 30S TO LOW 40S).
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLR-MO/CLR SKIES IN STORE FOR SUN AND MON AS A LARGE HIGH PRES
SYSTEM HOLDS OVER THE RGN. MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S ALONG THE
COAST TO LOWER 70S INLAND. LOWS IN THE LWR-MID 40S SUN NIGHT
AND UPR 40S TO NEAR 50 MON NIGHT.
NAM/GFS DIFFER ON OVERALL SOLN WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN TWO
HIGH PRES SYSTEMS. HAVE WENT WITH THE SLWR SOLN LATER ON TUE.
CURRENTLY HOLDING DRY CONDITIONS WITH ITS PASSAGE. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH INTO THE UPR 60S/LWR 70S FOR MOST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOLLOWED THE ECMWF SOLN THIS FCST PACKAGE. GFS NOT CONSISTENT IN ITS
HANDLING OF SRN MSTR. CDFRNT MOVES OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT. WILL KEEP
SLGHT CHC POPS IN FOR NOW (LOW CHC ACROSS NC CNTYS ALLOWING FOR ANY
SRN MSTR THAT MAY MAKE IT THAT FAR N). FA MAY END UP IN THE "SPLIT"
ZONE BTWN MSTR TO THE N & S.
1030+ MB RIDGE BUILDS INTO ERN CONUS FOR REST OF FCST PRD. P-GRDNT
BTWN DEEPENING LOW OVR NEW ENGLAND AND THIS HIGH WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN BREEZY TO WNDY CNDTNS AT THE COAST. DRY AND SEASONABLE CNDTNS
XPCTD WITH A SLOW WRMUP BY NXT WEEKEND. HIGHS WED IN THE 50S...NR 60
THU AND INTO THE 60S FRI AND SAT. LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES AS VFR WL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. WITH
HI PRES JUST OFF THE MID ATLC CST...EXPECT LGT S TO SW WNDS
THROUGH SUN. COULD SEE MORE OF A SE COMPONENT ALNG CSTL TAF SITES
SUN AFTN. A COLD FRONT MVS ACRS THE AREA TUE AFTN/EVNG BRINGING A
SLGT CHC OF PCPN WITH IT. HI PRES BLDS INTO THE AREA FM THE W
WED WITH DRY CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
BOTH RUC/WRF INDCTG A SVRL HR PRD OF INCRSD WNDS (15-20KTS) ACROSS
THE CHES BAY THIS EVE. SO AFTR COORD WITH LWX...DECIDED TO HOIST SCA
HEADLINES ACROSS THE MIDDLE CHES BAY THRU 05Z. WNDS THEN PROGGED TO
DMNSH AFTR MIDNITE.
HIGH PRS BUILDS ACROSS THE MARINE AREA SUN THRU TUE WITH WNDS AOB 15
KTS AND SEAS 2-4 FT. RETURN SRLY FLOW BEGINS TO INCRS A BIT TUE
AHEAD OF NXT CDFRNT. THIS FRNT PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUE
NITE. WNDS SHFT INTO N-NW AND INCRS INTO SCA RANGE BY LATE TUE NITE.
P-GRDNT BTWN DEEPENING LOW OVR THE NE AND 1030+MB HIGH BLDG E CUD
RESULT IN LOW END GALES ACROSS THE CSTL WTRS BY ERLY WED. WILL CAP
GUSTS AT 30 KTS FOR NOW.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CCW
NEAR TERM...CCW
SHORT TERM...CCW
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...AM
MARINE...MPR
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 072041
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
341 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM THE NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH MORE TYPICAL LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
(UPR 30S TO LOW 40S).
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLR-MO/CLR SKIES IN STORE FOR SUN AND MON AS A LARGE HIGH PRES
SYSTEM HOLDS OVER THE RGN. MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S ALONG THE
COAST TO LOWER 70S INLAND. LOWS IN THE LWR-MID 40S SUN NIGHT
AND UPR 40S TO NEAR 50 MON NIGHT.
NAM/GFS DIFFER ON OVERALL SOLN WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN TWO
HIGH PRES SYSTEMS. HAVE WENT WITH THE SLWR SOLN LATER ON TUE.
CURRENTLY HOLDING DRY CONDITIONS WITH ITS PASSAGE. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH INTO THE UPR 60S/LWR 70S FOR MOST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOLLOWED THE ECMWF SOLN THIS FCST PACKAGE. GFS NOT CONSISTENT IN ITS
HANDLING OF SRN MSTR. CDFRNT MOVES OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT. WILL KEEP
SLGHT CHC POPS IN FOR NOW (LOW CHC ACROSS NC CNTYS ALLOWING FOR ANY
SRN MSTR THAT MAY MAKE IT THAT FAR N). FA MAY END UP IN THE "SPLIT"
ZONE BTWN MSTR TO THE N & S.
1030+ MB RIDGE BUILDS INTO ERN CONUS FOR REST OF FCST PRD. P-GRDNT
BTWN DEEPENING LOW OVR NEW ENGLAND AND THIS HIGH WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN BREEZY TO WNDY CNDTNS AT THE COAST. DRY AND SEASONABLE CNDTNS
XPCTD WITH A SLOW WRMUP BY NXT WEEKEND. HIGHS WED IN THE 50S...NR 60
THU AND INTO THE 60S FRI AND SAT. LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S FROM A LOW OVER SRN CANADA HAS
INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. S TO SW
WINDS INCREASED TO AROUND 10 KTS BY 17Z. MIXING OF THESE WINDS MAY
PRODUCE GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KTS AT RIC AND SBY AND THEN DIMINISH TO
AROUND 5 TO 8 KTS AROUND SUNSET. WINDS BECOME LGT AND VARIABLE SUN
AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER THE SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD AROUND THE
TAF SITES.
VFR WL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD AND BEYOND. A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES ACRS THE AREA TUE AFTN/EVNG BRINGING A SLGT CHC OF PCPN WITH
IT. HI PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FM THE W WED.
&&
.MARINE...
BOTH RUC/WRF INDCTG A SVRL HR PRD OF INCRSD WNDS (15-20KTS) ACROSS
THE CHES BAY THIS EVE. SO AFTR COORD WITH LWX...DECIDED TO HOIST SCA
HEADLINES ACROSS THE MIDDLE CHES BAY THRU 05Z. WNDS THEN PROGGED TO
DMNSH AFTR MIDNITE.
HIGH PRS BUILDS ACROSS THE MARINE AREA SUN THRU TUE WITH WNDS AOB 15
KTS AND SEAS 2-4 FT. RETURN SRLY FLOW BEGINS TO INCRS A BIT TUE
AHEAD OF NXT CDFRNT. THIS FRNT PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUE
NITE. WNDS SHFT INTO N-NW AND INCRS INTO SCA RANGE BY LATE TUE NITE.
P-GRDNT BTWN DEEPENING LOW OVR THE NE AND 1030+MB HIGH BLDG E CUD
RESULT IN LOW END GALES ACROSS THE CSTL WTRS BY ERLY WED. WILL CAP
GUSTS AT 30 KTS FOR NOW.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CCW
NEAR TERM...CCW
SHORT TERM...CCW
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MPR
000
FXUS61 KRNK 072040
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
340 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED OVER THE REGION. EXPECT WINDS TO DECOUPLE
QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS IN THE VALLEYS. MODELS
WERE SHOWING A 30-40 KNOT JET ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTY WARNING
AREA. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH THE KEEP MIXING GOING ON THE RIDGES.
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WILL BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
ON SUNDAY FORECAST AREA IS UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE +11 TO +13 RANGE. WITH A DRY AIRMASS AND
LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER HIGHS TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY AS THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. MODELS WERE SHOWING LITTLE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE BELOW 700 MB UNTIL AFTER 12Z ON TUESDAY. SO KEPT ONLY A
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWER IN BEFORE 18Z TUESDAY. LITTLE CHANGE IN
GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. STILL SHOULD BE CROSSING
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA ON TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOLLOWED HPCGUIDE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WHICH WAS A BLEND OF ECMWF AND
GEFS. COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS OUR
REGION AND SHOULD EXIT AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD SHUNT
ALL DEEP MOISTURE TO THE SE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INCLUDING
WHATS LEFT OF IDA AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW ON
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH LARGE DIURNAL
SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES AGAIN ESPCLY BY THU/THU NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE
ABOUT OVERHEAD. NEXT FAST MOVING NORTHERN STREAM S/W TROF WILL BEGIN
TO APPROACH FROM THE NW BY FRIDAY WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AROUND
THE DEPARTING RIDGE OFFSHORE. THIS MAY BRING A FEW PRE-FRONTAL SHRA
TO THE SW DURING FRIDAY BUT GIVEN SUCH HIGH HEIGHTS WILL OPT TO
LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION. WITH RETURN FLOW BECOMING DEEPER WILL ALLOW
FOR LIGHT POPS ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BOTH
SURFACE AND ALOFT LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA. AN 850 MB JET TONIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY WILL KEEP THE WIND ALONG THE RIDGES...AND
INCLUDING BLF...OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS.
HOWEVER THE VALLEYS WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN LIGHT
WINDS AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE. CEILINGS WILL LOWER MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY WILL
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES OF 25 TO 30 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL
START TO INCREASE ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...JH/REB/WP
FIRE WEATHER...AMS
000
FXUS61 KLWX 072000
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
300 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE AREA
TOMORROW...BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIPRES CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL SLOWLY BUILD
SEWD BUT REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE MID ATLANTIC WX PATTERN. A VERY
WEAK LLVL SHORTWAVE AND SFC PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE THRU THE
REGION LATE TNGT. WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR FROM THE C
CONUS INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN A FAIRLY STRONG THERMAL
INVERSION IN THE FIRST 3 KFT ABOVE THE GROUND. THIS INVERSION
COMBINED WITH MIXING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
BLUE RIDGE AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...WILL RESULT IN MUCH HIGHER MIN
TEMPS COMPARED TO COOLER SHELTERED VALLEYS. FCST LOWS RANGE FROM
AROUND 40F IN LOCATIONS BELOW 1 KFT TO NEAR 50F FOR ELEVATIONS AOA
2 KFT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SFC PRESSURE TROUGH WILL PUSH THRU BY THE ERY
IN THE PD. SFC FLOW WILL SHIFT NWLY IN WAKE OF TROUGH BUT WILL
BECOME LIGHT AS HIPRES RIDGE SETTLES OVRHD. WITH MSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND A WARMER AIRMASS IN PLACE...MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MU60S WITH A FEW SPOTS CLIMBING INTO THE L70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE
CWFA THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THE GFS IS NOW BRINGING MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THERE IS A WIDE SPREAD BETWEEN GUIDANCE NUMBERS
FOR THIS PERIOD...SO WILL OPT TO GO WITH PERSISTENCE AND KEEP THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND.
LOOKS LIKE UNTIL THE FROPA LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY TEMPS IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD REMAIN A BIT HIGHER THAN THE VALLEYS.
ALSO...BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY
AND EVEN INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TNGT AND SUN. SLY WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO 15 KT WILL RELAX TOWARDS SUNSET. A SUBTLE PRESSURE TROUGH
WILL PUSH THRU OVRNGT...SHIFTING THE WINDS W-NWLY SUN.
NO RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY/CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY. NOT MUCH
PRECIPITATION CAN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS BOUNDARY...BUT BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THRU 02Z THIS EVNG IN THE MD CHSPK BAY AND
LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC. SLY CHANNELING WILL PROLONG 20 KT GUST
POTENTIAL THRU THE EVNG BEFORE THE WINDS RELAX LATE THIS EVNG. WINDS
WILL BECOME LGT OVRNGT INTO SUN AS HIPRES SETTLES OVRHD.
SOME CHANNELING UP THE BAY IS POSSIBLE LATER TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND GUST POTENTIAL MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR...WINDS
ALOFT COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES DURING THIS
PERIOD.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ530>534-537>543.
&&
$$
KLEIN/LISTEMAA
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 071747
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1247 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF
THE EAST COAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE RGN ASSOCD WITH THE NOSE OF AN
UPR LVL JET MAX (H50-30 LVLS). OTHERWISE...M/S SKIES WILL PREVAIL
THIS AFTN WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 50S ALONG THE COAST TO THE LOW/MID
60S INLAND.
SKIES CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...WITH MORE TYPICAL LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR (UPR 30S TO LOW 40S) FOR TONIGHT UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SUNDAY...
ANOTHER VERY NICE WX DAY ON SUNDAY...AS THE UPR RIDGE DEEPENS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 60S
ALONG THE COAST TO THE LWR 70S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. CLEAR
AND SEASONABLY COOL SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE U30S
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/INTERIOR EASTERN SHORE...TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.
MONDAY...
ANOTHER GENERALLY BENIGN...PLEASANT WX DAY IN STORE FOR THE RGN
ON MONDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST BUT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WX ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS ONCE
AGAIN IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST INLAND ZONES...UPPER 60S/NR70
ALONG THE COAST UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO ARISE IN THE MODELS DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE GFS HASN`T HAD THE BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF
LATE...AND AT 12Z DEPARTED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE 06Z RUN/ENSEMBLE
MEAN. BY NEXT TUE...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A DEVELOPING LOW
IN THE GULF (SRN STREAM WAVE)...HOWEVER OVER TIME (THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK) THE GFS SHOWS THE LOW GRADUALLY MIGRATING LOW OFF THE
FL/GA COAST...WHILE THE ECMWF IS FARTHER S WITH THE DEEP-LAYER
RIDGING AND (THUS) THE LOW TRACK. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
MORE CONSISTENT ECWMF...THOUGH WILL TREND WITH A LITTLE MORE CLOUD
COVER OVER SRN PTNS OF THE FCST AREA TUE-FRI. OTHERWISE...FOLLOWING
MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES WITH THE FRONT TUE/TUE NGT...HAVE OPTED TO
KEEP A DRY FCST GOING WED-FRI. TEMPS SEASONABLE...AROUND 5-10F ABV
NORMAL TUE (MID 60S TO LWR 70S)...THOUGH CLOSER TO CLIMO WED-FRI
(LOW-MID 60S).
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S FROM A LOW OVER SRN CANADA HAS
INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. S TO SW
WINDS INCREASED TO AROUND 10 KTS BY 17Z. MIXING OF THESE WINDS MAY
PRODUCE GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KTS AT RIC AND SBY AND THEN DIMINISH TO
AROUND 5 TO 8 KTS AROUND SUNSET. WINDS BECOME LGT AND VARIABLE SUN
AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER THE SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD AROUND THE
TAF SITES.
VFR WL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD AND BEYOND. A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES ACRS THE AREA TUE AFTN/EVNG BRINGING A SLGT CHC OF PCPN WITH
IT. HI PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FM THE W WED.
&&
.MARINE...
FOR THE MOST PART...MARINE WEATHER WILL BE RATHER TRANQUIL NEXT FEW
DAYS. EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT...WHEN SLY WINDS ON THE BAY WILL COME CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA.
WHILE SOME OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES MARGINAL SCA WILL BE
NEEDED...WILL KEEP WINDS JUST BELOW SCA FOR NOW...AND DAY SHIFT CAN
MAKE FINAL DETERMINATION. WINDS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN BLO SCA
CRITERIA...BUT WILL INCREASE TO 15 KT OR SO FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. WINDS DROP OFF ON SUNDAY...WITH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY LOOKING VERY NICE FOR MARINERS. NEXT FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY/WED...WITH A NLY/NWLY SURGE LIKELY BEHIND
FNT. THAT WILL BE THE NEXT SOLID CHANCE FOR SCAS MARINE AREA WIDE.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...CCW/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...BKH
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...WRS
000
FXUS61 KRNK 071741
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1241 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORT WAVE WAS CROSSING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH HIGH
THIN CLOUDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE INCREASED HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN A FEW LOCATIONS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
OVERALL SINKING MOTION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS LIKELY. HOWEVER TEMPS A LITTLE MORE TRICKY PER
LINGERING JET AND WARMTH ALOFT. LOOKS LIKE THE VALLEYS SHOULD
AGAIN DECOUPLE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FALLS INTO THE LOW/MID 30S WHILE
THE RIDGES STAY QUITE MILD WITH SOME MIXING PERSISTING. SINCE A
GOOD 15-20 DEG DIFFERENCE POSSIBLE BETWEEN VALLEYS/RIDGES USED A
BLEND OF THE COLDER MAV IN THE LOW SPOTS/VALLEYS AND THE WARMER
MET WITH INCREASING ELEVATION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR
HIGHS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BECOME MILDER AS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY. SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S WILL BE COMMON WITH LOW TO MID 40S THE NORM
MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WE WILL BE WATCHING TWO FEATURES FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO RETURN TO THE AREA...AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...AND REMNANT MOISTURE FROM IDA HEADING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.
BOTH THE 07/00Z GFS AND THE 06/12Z ECWMF SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA BEFORE THE BULK OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE MAKES IT
INTO THE REGION. WILL FOCUS CHANCES FOR THE BEST POPS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT
OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE REACHING THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT ITSELF WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA ALSO...BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HEADING INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE. WILL HAVE THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS EXITING THE
REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO SHUNT ALL DEEP MOISTURE TO THE SE WED NIGHT
INCLUDING WHATS LEFT OF IDA AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NW ON THU. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH LARGE
DIURNAL SWINGS IN TEMPS AGAIN ESPCLY BY THU/THU NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE
ABOUT OVERHEAD. NEXT FAST MOVING NORTHERN STREAM S/W TROF WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE NW BY FRIDAY WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING AROUND THE DEPARTING RIDGE OFFSHORE. THIS MAY BRING A
FEW PRE-FRONTAL SHRA TO THE SW DURING FRIDAY BUT GIVEN SUCH HIGH
HEIGHTS WILL OPT TO LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION IN THE EXTENDED AT THIS
POINT. OTRW LEFT TEMPS BASICALLY STATUS QUO AS STILL IN LINE WITH
THE LATEST MEX MOS FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BOTH
SURFACE AND ALOFT LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA. AN 850 MB JET TONIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY WILL KEEP THE WIND ALONG THE RIDGES...AND
INCLUDING BLF...OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS.
HOWEVER THE VALLEYS WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN LIGHT
WINDS AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE. CEILINGS WILL LOWER MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY WILL
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY MINIMUMS OF 25 TO 35 PERCENT.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/REB/WP
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...DS/JH
LONG TERM...DS/JH/RCS
AVIATION...AMS
FIRE WEATHER...JH
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 071617
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1117 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF
THE EAST COAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE RGN ASSOCD WITH THE NOSE OF AN
UPR LVL JET MAX (H50-30 LVLS). OTHERWISE...M/S SKIES WILL PREVAIL
THIS AFTN WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 50S ALONG THE COAST TO THE LOW/MID
60S INLAND.
SKIES CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...WITH MORE TYPICAL LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR (UPR 30S TO LOW 40S) FOR TONIGHT UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SUNDAY...
ANOTHER VERY NICE WX DAY ON SUNDAY...AS THE UPR RIDGE DEEPENS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 60S
ALONG THE COAST TO THE LWR 70S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. CLEAR
AND SEASONABLY COOL SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE U30S
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/INTERIOR EASTERN SHORE...TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.
MONDAY...
ANOTHER GENERALLY BENIGN...PLEASANT WX DAY IN STORE FOR THE RGN
ON MONDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST BUT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WX ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS ONCE
AGAIN IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST INLAND ZONES...UPPER 60S/NR70
ALONG THE COAST UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO ARISE IN THE MODELS DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE GFS HASN`T HAD THE BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF
LATE...AND AT 12Z DEPARTED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE 06Z RUN/ENSEMBLE
MEAN. BY NEXT TUE...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A DEVELOPING LOW
IN THE GULF (SRN STREAM WAVE)...HOWEVER OVER TIME (THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK) THE GFS SHOWS THE LOW GRADUALLY MIGRATING LOW OFF THE
FL/GA COAST...WHILE THE ECMWF IS FARTHER S WITH THE DEEP-LAYER
RIDGING AND (THUS) THE LOW TRACK. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
MORE CONSISTENT ECWMF...THOUGH WILL TREND WITH A LITTLE MORE CLOUD
COVER OVER SRN PTNS OF THE FCST AREA TUE-FRI. OTHERWISE...FOLLOWING
MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES WITH THE FRONT TUE/TUE NGT...HAVE OPTED TO
KEEP A DRY FCST GOING WED-FRI. TEMPS SEASONABLE...AROUND 5-10F ABV
NORMAL TUE (MID 60S TO LWR 70S)...THOUGH CLOSER TO CLIMO WED-FRI
(LOW-MID 60S).
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR WL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD AS HI PRES REMAINS OVER THE
MID ATLNC RGN. A WEAK UPR LVL SHORT WV WL BRING A FEW HIGH PASSING
CLDS BY EARLY AFTN MON...OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEAR SKIES. A WEAK COLD
FNT MVS ACRS THE AREA TUE AFTN/EVNG BRINGING A SLGT CHC OF PCPN
WITH IT. HI PRES BLDS INTO THE AREA FM THE W WED.
&&
.MARINE...
FOR THE MOST PART...MARINE WEATHER WILL BE RATHER TRANQUIL NEXT FEW
DAYS. EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT...WHEN SLY WINDS ON THE BAY WILL COME CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA.
WHILE SOME OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES MARGINAL SCA WILL BE
NEEDED...WILL KEEP WINDS JUST BELOW SCA FOR NOW...AND DAY SHIFT CAN
MAKE FINAL DETERMINATION. WINDS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN BLO SCA
CRITERIA...BUT WILL INCREASE TO 15 KT OR SO FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. WINDS DROP OFF ON SUNDAY...WITH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY LOOKING VERY NICE FOR MARINERS. NEXT FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY/WED...WITH A NLY/NWLY SURGE LIKELY BEHIND
FNT. THAT WILL BE THE NEXT SOLID CHANCE FOR SCAS MARINE AREA WIDE.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...CCW/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...BKH
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...WRS
000
FXUS61 KLWX 071557
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1057 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY...WITH LITTLE
EFFECT ON TEMPERATURE. HIGH PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIPRES CENTERED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL SLOWLY SAG SEWD OFF
THE COAST THIS AFTN BUT CONTROL THE MID ATLANTIC WX PATTERN. TEMPS
SHOULD QUICKLY REBOUND FROM A COLD START THIS MRNG AS SLY WINDS
AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE MODERATE THE AIRMASS OVRHD. WEIGHTED MORE
TOWARDS MET GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS WHICH HAVE VERIFIED THE BEST
RECENTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
RIPPLE IN UPPER FLOW SENDS WEAK CDFNT THRU LATE SAT NGT. INCRD
CLOUDS...SPCLY NRN ZONES...AND WDSHFT TO WNW ONLY EFFECTS OF FROPA
ON MID ATLC. WITH MIXING AND CLOUD COVER...MINIMA XPCD TO BE 10-15
DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT MRNG.
HIPRES AT THE SFC AND UPR LEVELS BUILDS ON SUN...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND LGT WINDS. TEMPS RISE ABOVE AVERAGE. USED A MAV/MET BLEND
TO OBTAIN MAXIMA IN M/U60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
SANDWICHED IN TUE NIGHT. FROM SUN 12Z TO TUE 12Z...A POSITIVE H85
TEMP ANOMALY OF +1SD WHICH TRANSLATES THIS TIME OF YEAR TO +12C AT
H85 WILL GIVE OUR REGION A COUPLE OF PLEASANT INDIAN SUMMER DAYS ON
MON AND TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND MAYBE LOWER 70S AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON LATE TUE AFT OR ERLY EVENING...WITH
A DIGGING H5 TROF. THE GEFS WASHES OUT THE PCPN...WITH ONLY A
COUPLE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS GIVING ANY PCPN ON TUE NIGHT...BUT WILL
LEAVE IN THE 20 POP BUT ANTICIPATE ATTM LITTLE IF ANY PCPN. WINDS
SHOULD BE GUSTY LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...AND WITH ANY APPRECIABLE
DRYNESS IN FUEL MOISTURE MAY HAVE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON WED.
HIGH PRES FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND
CONTINUE DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER FOR THU AND FRI.
GEFS HAS A PCPN SYSTEM MOVING INTO REGION FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ASIDE FROM SCT HI CI TDA...MSTLY CLR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS
THRU THE WEEKEND.
SLY WINDS 5-10 KT WITH GUSTS TO 15 KT TDA BECOME WLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT TNGT AS CDFNT PASSES THRU. LGT WLY WINDS XPCD SUN.
LONG TERM NOT OF CONCERN WITH VFR CONDITIONS THOUGHOUT PERIOD. POTL
FOR TURB TUE NIGHT ACROSS REGN WITH UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOC WITH
DIGGING TROF AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE NE US.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE INCREASED LATE THIS MRNG WITH SLY CHANNELING ACROSS THE
CHSPK BAY. SCA CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT EXPECTED ACROSS
THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC THRU SUNSET.
BY SUNSET MIXING SUBSIDES...AND WINDS SHUD RETURN BELOW SCA
SPEEDS. WINDS BECOME WLY ERY SUN AS CDFNT PASSES OVER WATERS...BUT
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT.
HAVE INCREASED WINDS TO SCA LEVELS FOR TUE NIGHT AND WED AS MODELS
SHOW STRONG LLVL JET AND TIGHT SFC PRES GRAD BEHIND COLD FRONT.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ530>534-537>543.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KLEIN
PREV DISC...SBK/JEL
000
FXUS61 KRNK 071456
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
956 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORT WAVE WAS CROSSING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH HIGH
THIN CLOUDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR
TODAY NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
OVERALL SINKING MOTION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS LIKELY. HOWEVER TEMPS A LITTLE MORE TRICKY PER
LINGERING JET AND WARMTH ALOFT. LOOKS LIKE THE VALLEYS SHOULD
AGAIN DECOUPLE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FALLS INTO THE LOW/MID 30S WHILE
THE RIDGES STAY QUITE MILD WITH SOME MIXING PERSISTING. SINCE A
GOOD 15-20 DEG DIFFERENCE POSSIBLE BETWEEN VALLEYS/RIDGES USED A
BLEND OF THE COLDER MAV IN THE LOW SPOTS/VALLEYS AND THE WARMER
MET WITH INCREASING ELEVATION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR
HIGHS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BECOME MILDER AS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY. SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S WILL BE COMMON WITH LOW TO MID 40S THE NORM
MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WE WILL BE WATCHING TWO FEATURES FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO RETURN TO THE AREA...AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...AND REMNANT MOISTURE FROM IDA HEADING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.
BOTH THE 07/00Z GFS AND THE 06/12Z ECWMF SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA BEFORE THE BULK OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE MAKES IT
INTO THE REGION. WILL FOCUS CHANCES FOR THE BEST POPS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT
OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE REACHING THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT ITSELF WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA ALSO...BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HEADING INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE. WILL HAVE THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS EXITING THE
REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO SHUNT ALL DEEP MOISTURE TO THE SE WED NIGHT
INCLUDING WHATS LEFT OF IDA AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NW ON THU. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH LARGE
DIURNAL SWINGS IN TEMPS AGAIN ESPCLY BY THU/THU NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE
ABOUT OVERHEAD. NEXT FAST MOVING NORTHERN STREAM S/W TROF WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE NW BY FRIDAY WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING AROUND THE DEPARTING RIDGE OFFSHORE. THIS MAY BRING A
FEW PRE-FRONTAL SHRA TO THE SW DURING FRIDAY BUT GIVEN SUCH HIGH
HEIGHTS WILL OPT TO LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION IN THE EXTENDED AT THIS
POINT. OTRW LEFT TEMPS BASICALLY STATUS QUO AS STILL IN LINE WITH
THE LATEST MEX MOS FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BOTH
SURFACE AND ALOFT LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SW
WINDS IN THE 8 TO 12 KNOT RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED AT MOST TAF SITES
AFTER 17Z TODAY WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES.
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO BRING ANY SORT OF WEATHER THREAT TO THE
AREA WILL NOT ENTER THE REGION UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. AT
THAT TIME...CLOUDS AND LOWERING CIGS CAN BE ANTICIPATED. UNTIL
THEN EXPECT NEAR CLOUD FREE CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF PERIODIC HIGH
CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY MINIMUMS OF 25 TO 35 PERCENT.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/REB/WP
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...DS/JH
LONG TERM...DS/JH/RCS
AVIATION...JH/REB/WP
FIRE WEATHER...
000
FXUS61 KLWX 071320
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
820 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY...WITH LITTLE
EFFECT ON TEMPERATURE. HIGH PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FREEZE WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR AREAS ALONG AND E OF I-95 WITH
TEMPS QUICKLY RISING TO ABOVE FREEZING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SFC RDG CURRENTLY OVHD...WITH TEMPS ACRS THE CWA BELOW
FRZG...XCPT FOR IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS ALONG CHESAPEAKE. PATCHY
OF CI STREAMING INTO WRN ZONES...WHICH SHUD PASS THRU THE AREA
THIS MRNG.
HIPRES SLIDES S/E TODAY...WITH LIGHT SLY FLOW. 850MB WAA
PERSISTS...ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE TO SEASONAL LEVELS. FOR
MAXIMA...WENT ON WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE...AMPLE AFTN SUN SHUD ALLOW
FOR HIGHS IN U50S/L60S E OF BLUE RIDGE...60S WRN AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
RIPPLE IN UPPER FLOW SENDS WEAK CDFNT THRU LATE SAT NGT. INCRD
CLOUDS...SPCLY NRN ZONES...AND WDSHFT TO WNW ONLY EFFECTS OF FROPA
ON MID ATLC. WITH MIXING AND CLOUD COVER...MINIMA XPCD TO BE 10-15
DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT MRNG.
HIPRES AT THE SFC AND UPR LEVELS BUILDS ON SUN...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND LGT WINDS. TEMPS RISE ABOVE AVERAGE. USED A MAV/MET BLEND
TO OBTAIN MAXIMA IN M/U60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
SANDWICHED IN TUE NIGHT. FROM SUN 12Z TO TUE 12Z...A POSITIVE H85
TEMP ANOMALY OF +1SD WHICH TRANSLATES THIS TIME OF YEAR TO +12C AT
H85 WILL GIVE OUR REGION A COUPLE OF PLEASANT INDIAN SUMMER DAYS ON
MON AND TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND MAYBE LOWER 70S AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON LATE TUE AFT OR ERLY EVENING...WITH
A DIGGING H5 TROF. THE GEFS WASHES OUT THE PCPN...WITH ONLY A
COUPLE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS GIVING ANY PCPN ON TUE NIGHT...BUT WILL
LEAVE IN THE 20 POP BUT ANTICIPATE ATTM LITTLE IF ANY PCPN. WINDS
SHOULD BE GUSTY LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...AND WITH ANY APPRECIABLE
DRYNESS IN FUEL MOISTURE MAY HAVE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON WED.
HIGH PRES FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND
CONTINUE DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER FOR THU AND FRI.
GEFS HAS A PCPN SYSTEM MOVING INTO REGION FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCT CI AOA 20KFT WILL OVERSPREAD AIRPORTS THIS MRNG...WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS CONTG THRU THE WEEKEND. SLY WINDS
5-10 MPH THIS AFTN BECOME WLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TNGT AS CDFNT PASSES
THRU. LGT WLY WINDS XPCD SUN.
LONG TERM NOT OF CONCERN WITH VFR CONDITIONS THOUGHOUT PERIOD. POTL
FOR TURB TUE NIGHT ACROSS REGN WITH UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOC WITH
DIGGING TROF AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE NE US.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS GRDLY BCMG MORE ESTABLISHED OVER THE WATERS ERY THIS MRNG. AS
SLY FLOW AHEAD OF CDFNT INCRS THIS AFTN...925 MB WINDS 30+
KTS...MIXING AND CHANNELING SHUD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUSTAINED 15 KT
WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS AOA 20 KTS. SCA WILL BE ISSUED FOR THIS
AFTN FOR MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC. BY SUNSET
MIXING SUBSIDES...AND WINDS SHUD RETURN BELOW SCA SPEEDS. WINDS
BECOME WLY ERY SUN AS CDFNT PASSES OVER WATERS...BUT WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE LIGHT.
HAVE INCREASED WINDS TO SCA LEVELS FOR TUE NIGHT AND WED AS MODELS
SHOW STRONG LLVL JET AND TIGHT SFC PRES GRAD BEHIND COLD FRONT.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK/JEL
NEAR TERM...KLEIN/SBK
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...JEL
AVIATION...SBK/JEL
MARINE...SBK/JEL
000
FXUS61 KRNK 071200
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
700 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BASICALLY A TEMP FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN ELONGATES BACK INTO THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT.
STRENGTHENING W/SW FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD
BOOST TEMPS A GOOD 5-10 DEGS THIS AFTERNOON ESPCLY GIVEN 85H VALUES
WARMING TO +10-12C AND HEATING OF DRY AIR. WITH BEST WARMING ALOFT
IN THE WEST AND RIDGE OVERHEAD EARLY ON IN THE EAST EXPECT UNIFORM
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S. WILL INIT EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A SWATH
OF HIGH CLOUDS PER WEAK S/W CROSSING FROM THE NW...OTRW DRY AIR
AND AFTERNOON SUBSIDENCE SUPPORTS MAINLY SUNNY SKIES.
OVERALL SINKING MOTION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS LIKELY. HOWEVER TEMPS A LITTLE MORE TRICKY PER
LINGERING JET AND WARMTH ALOFT. LOOKS LIKE THE VALLEYS SHOULD
AGAIN DECOUPLE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FALLS INTO THE LOW/MID 30S WHILE
THE RIDGES STAY QUITE MILD WITH SOME MIXING PERSISTING. SINCE A
GOOD 15-20 DEG DIFFERENCE POSSIBLE BETWEEN VALLEYS/RIDGES USED A
BLEND OF THE COLDER MAV IN THE LOW SPOTS/VALLEYS AND THE WARMER
MET WITH INCREASING ELEVATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR
HIGHS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BECOME MILDER AS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY. SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S WILL BE COMMON WITH LOW TO MID 40S THE NORM
MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WE WILL BE WATCHING TWO FEATURES FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO RETURN TO THE AREA...AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...AND REMNANT MOISTURE FROM IDA HEADING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.
BOTH THE 07/00Z GFS AND THE 06/12Z ECWMF SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA BEFORE THE BULK OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE MAKES IT
INTO THE REGION. WILL FOCUS CHANCES FOR THE BEST POPS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT
OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE REACHING THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT ITSELF WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA ALSO...BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HEADING INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE. WILL HAVE THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS EXITING THE
REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO SHUNT ALL DEEP MOISTURE TO THE SE WED NIGHT
INCLUDING WHATS LEFT OF IDA AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NW ON THU. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH LARGE
DIURNAL SWINGS IN TEMPS AGAIN ESPCLY BY THU/THU NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE
ABOUT OVERHEAD. NEXT FAST MOVING NORTHERN STREAM S/W TROF WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE NW BY FRIDAY WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING AROUND THE DEPARTING RIDGE OFFSHORE. THIS MAY BRING A
FEW PRE-FRONTAL SHRA TO THE SW DURING FRIDAY BUT GIVEN SUCH HIGH
HEIGHTS WILL OPT TO LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION IN THE EXTENDED AT THIS
POINT. OTRW LEFT TEMPS BASICALLY STATUS QUO AS STILL IN LINE WITH
THE LATEST MEX MOS FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BOTH
SURFACE AND ALOFT LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SW
WINDS IN THE 8 TO 12 KNOT RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED AT MOST TAF SITES
AFTER 17Z TODAY WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES.
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO BRING ANY SORT OF WEATHER THREAT TO THE
AREA WILL NOT ENTER THE REGION UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. AT
THAT TIME...CLOUDS AND LOWERING CIGS CAN BE ANTICIPATED. UNTIL
THEN EXPECT NEAR CLOUD FREE CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF PERIODIC HIGH
CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY MINIMUMS OF 25 TO 35 PERCENT.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/REB/WP
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JH/RCS
AVIATION...JH/REB/WP
FIRE WEATHER...
000
FXUS61 KLWX 070852
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
352 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY...WITH LITTLE
EFFECT ON TEMPERATURE. HIGH PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC RDG CURRENTLY OVHD...WITH TEMPS ACRS THE CWA BELOW FRZG...XCPT
FOR IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS ALONG CHESAPEAKE. PATCHY OF CI STREAMING
INTO WRN ZONES...WHICH SHUD PASS THRU THE AREA THIS MRNG.
HIPRES SLIDES S/E TODAY...WITH LIGHT SLY FLOW. 850MB WAA
PERSISTS...ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE TO SEASONAL LEVELS. FOR
MAXIMA...WENT ON WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE...AMPLE AFTN SUN SHUD ALLOW
FOR HIGHS IN U50S/L60S E OF BLUE RIDGE...60S WRN AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
RIPPLE IN UPPER FLOW SENDS WEAK CDFNT THRU LATE SAT NGT. INCRD
CLOUDS...SPCLY NRN ZONES...AND WDSHFT TO WNW ONLY EFFECTS OF FROPA
ON MID ATLC. WITH MIXING AND CLOUD COVER...MINIMA XPCD TO BE 10-15
DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT MRNG.
HIPRES AT THE SFC AND UPR LEVELS BUILDS ON SUN...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND LGT WINDS. TEMPS RISE ABOVE AVERAGE. USED A MAV/MET BLEND
TO OBTAIN MAXIMA IN M/U60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
SANDWICHED IN TUE NIGHT. FROM SUN 12Z TO TUE 12Z...A POSITIVE H85
TEMP ANOMALY OF +1SD WHICH TRANSLATES THIS TIME OF YEAR TO +12C AT
H85 WILL GIVE OUR REGION A COUPLE OF PLEASANT INDIAN SUMMER DAYS ON
MON AND TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND MAYBE LOWER 70S AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON LATE TUE AFT OR ERLY EVENING...WITH
A DIGGING H5 TROF. THE GEFS WASHES OUT THE PCPN...WITH ONLY A
COUPLE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS GIVING ANY PCPN ON TUE NIGHT...BUT WILL
LEAVE IN THE 20 POP BUT ANTICIPATE ATTM LITTLE IF ANY PCPN. WINDS
SHOULD BE GUSTY LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...AND WITH ANY APPRECIABLE
DRYNESS IN FUEL MOISTURE MAY HAVE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON WED.
HIGH PRES FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND
CONTINUE DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER FOR THU AND FRI.
GEFS HAS A PCPN SYSTEM MOVING INTO REGION FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCT CI AOA 20KFT WILL OVERSPREAD AIRPORTS THIS MRNG...WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS CONTG THRU THE WEEKEND. SLY WINDS
5-10 MPH THIS AFTN BECOME WLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TNGT AS CDFNT PASSES
THRU. LGT WLY WINDS XPCD SUN.
LONG TERM NOT OF CONCERN WITH VFR CONDITIONS THOUGHOUT PERIOD. POTL
FOR TURB TUE NIGHT ACROSS REGN WITH UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOC WITH
DIGGING TROF AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE NE US.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS GRDLY BCMG MORE ESTABLISHED OVER THE WATERS ERY THIS MRNG. AS
SLY FLOW AHEAD OF CDFNT INCRS THIS AFTN...925 MB WINDS 30+
KTS...MIXING AND CHANNELING SHUD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUSTAINED 15 KT
WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS AOA 20 KTS. SCA WILL BE ISSUED FOR THIS
AFTN FOR MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC. BY SUNSET
MIXING SUBSIDES...AND WINDS SHUD RETURN BELOW SCA SPEEDS. WINDS
BECOME WLY ERY SUN AS CDFNT PASSES OVER WATERS...BUT WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE LIGHT.
HAVE INCREASED WINDS TO SCA LEVELS FOR TUE NIGHT AND WED AS MODELS
SHOW STRONG LLVL JET AND TIGHT SFC PRES GRAD BEHIND COLD FRONT.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR DCZ001.
MD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ006-007-011-
013-014-016>018.
VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ054>057.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK/JEL
NEAR TERM...SBK
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...JEL
AVIATION...SBK/JEL
MARINE...SBK/JEL
000
FXUS61 KRNK 070809
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
309 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BASICALLY A TEMP FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN ELONGATES BACK INTO THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT.
STRENGTHENING W/SW FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD
BOOST TEMPS A GOOD 5-10 DEGS THIS AFTERNOON ESPCLY GIVEN 85H VALUES
WARMING TO +10-12C AND HEATING OF DRY AIR. WITH BEST WARMING ALOFT
IN THE WEST AND RIDGE OVERHEAD EARLY ON IN THE EAST EXPECT UNIFORM
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S. WILL INIT EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A SWATH
OF HIGH CLOUDS PER WEAK S/W APPROACHING FROM THE NW OTRW DRY AIR AND
AFTERNOON SUBSIDENCE SUPPORTS MAINLY SUNNY SKIES.
OVERALL SINKING MOTION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS LIKELY. HOWEVER TEMPS A LITTLE MORE TRICKY PER
LINGERING JET AND WARMTH ALOFT. LOOKS LIKE THE VALLEYS SHOULD
AGAIN DECOUPLE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FALLS INTO THE LOW/MID 30S WHILE
THE RIDGES STAY QUITE MILD WITH SOME MIXING PERSISTING. SINCE A
GOOD 15-20 DEG DIFFERENCE POSSIBLE BETWEEN VALLEYS/RIDGES USED A
BLEND OF THE COLDER MAV IN THE LOW SPOTS/VALLEYS AND THE WARMER
MET WITH INCREASING ELEVATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR HIGHS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BECOME MILDER AS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY. SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S WILL BE COMMON WITH LOW TO MID 40S THE NORM MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WE WILL BE WATCHING TWO FEATURES FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO RETURN TO THE AREA...AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...AND REMNANT MOISTURE FROM IDA HEADING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.
BOTH THE 07/00Z GFS AND THE 06/12Z ECWMF SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA BEFORE THE BULK OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE MAKES IT
INTO THE REGION. WILL FOCUS CHANCES FOR THE BEST POPS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT
OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE REACHING THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT ITSELF WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA ALSO...BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HEADING INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE. WILL HAVE THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS EXITING THE
REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO SHUNT ALL DEEP MOISTURE TO THE SE WED NIGHT
INCLUDING WHATS LEFT OF IDA AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NW ON THU. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH LARGE
DIURNAL SWINGS IN TEMPS AGAIN ESPCLY BY THU/THU NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE
ABOUT OVERHEAD. NEXT FAST MOVING NORTHERN STREAM S/W TROF WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE NW BY FRIDAY WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING AROUND THE DEPARTING RIDGE OFFSHORE. THIS MAY BRING A
FEW PRE-FRONTAL SHRA TO THE SW DURING FRIDAY BUT GIVEN SUCH HIGH
HEIGHTS WILL OPT TO LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION IN THE EXTENDED AT THIS
POINT. OTRW LEFT TEMPS BASICALLY STATUS QUO AS STILL IN LINE WITH
THE LATEST MEX MOS FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDES CLOSE TO THE AREA MOVING OFFSHORE SAT AFTERNOON. A
SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL APPS OVERNIGHT IS GOING TO BRING
A LITTLE BIT OF CI/CS BUT NOTHING OF NOTE. SW WINDS IN THE 8 TO
12 KNOT RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED AT MOST TAF SITES AFTER 17Z SAT.
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO BRING ANY SORT OF WEATHER THREAT TO THE
AREA WILL NOT ENTER THE REGION UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. AT
THAT TIME...CLOUDS AND LOWERING CIGS CAN BE ANTICIPATED. UNTIL
THEN EXPECT NEAR CLOUD FREE CONDITIONS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY MINIMUMS OF 25 TO 35 PERCENT.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/REB/WP
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JH/RCS
AVIATION...REB/WP
FIRE WEATHER...
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 070758
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
258 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF
THE EAST COAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS SFC HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. ALOFT...UPR LEVEL RIDGING WAS NOTED OVER THE
LWR MS VALLEY THIS MORNING. TO THE WEST...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WAS CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SOME ASSOCIATED HIGH LEVEL
AC/CI DRIFTING TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS
MORNING.
HIGH CLOUDS TO THE WEST WL THIN OUT A BIT AS THEY BEGIN TO DRIFT
INTO OUR PIEDMONT COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND HAVE
INCREASED SKY COVER SLIGHTLY...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL VA/MD
ZONES...ACCORDINGLY. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH SCT AC/CI AROUND...SHOULD
STILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY TDA. AFTER A CHILLY START TO
THE DAY...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND QUICKLY ON STRONG RETURN (SSW)
FLOW. TOUGH TO MIX H85 TEMPS DOWN THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO USED H92
TEMPS FOR T GRIDS TODAY. EARLY AFTERNOON H92 TEMPS AROUND +10 TO
+11C OVER THE WEST...+8 TO +9C OVER THE EAST WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS
TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO (MID 60S) OVER ALONG/WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR...WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE (U50S TO LOW 60S) OVER
THE REST OF THE AREA.
SKIES CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...WITH MORE TYPICAL LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR (UPR 30S TO LOW 40S) FOR TONIGHT UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SUNDAY...
ANOTHER VERY NICE WX DAY ON SUNDAY...AS THE UPR RIDGE DEEPENS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 60S
ALONG THE COAST TO THE LWR 70S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. CLEAR
AND SEASONABLY COOL SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE U30S
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/INTERIOR EASTERN SHORE...TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.
MONDAY...
ANOTHER GENERALLY BENIGN...PLEASANT WX DAY IN STORE FOR THE RGN
ON MONDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST BUT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WX ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS ONCE
AGAIN IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST INLAND ZONES...UPPER 60S/NR70
ALONG THE COAST UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO ARISE IN THE MODELS DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE GFS HASN`T HAD THE BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF
LATE...AND AT 12Z DEPARTED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE 06Z RUN/ENSEMBLE
MEAN. BY NEXT TUE...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A DEVELOPING LOW
IN THE GULF (SRN STREAM WAVE)...HOWEVER OVER TIME (THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK) THE GFS SHOWS THE LOW GRADUALLY MIGRATING LOW OFF THE
FL/GA COAST...WHILE THE ECMWF IS FARTHER S WITH THE DEEP-LAYER
RIDGING AND (THUS) THE LOW TRACK. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
MORE CONSISTENT ECWMF...THOUGH WILL TREND WITH A LITTLE MORE CLOUD
COVER OVER SRN PTNS OF THE FCST AREA TUE-FRI. OTHERWISE...FOLLOWING
MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES WITH THE FRONT TUE/TUE NGT...HAVE OPTED TO
KEEP A DRY FCST GOING WED-FRI. TEMPS SEASONABLE...AROUND 5-10F ABV
NORMAL TUE (MID 60S TO LWR 70S)...THOUGH CLOSER TO CLIMO WED-FRI
(LOW-MID 60S).
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR WL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD AS HI PRES REMAINS OVER THE MID
ATLNC RGN. A WEAK UPR LVL SHORT WV WL BRING A FEW HIGH PASSING
CLDS BY EARLY AFTN MON...OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEAR SKIES. A WEAK
COLD FNT MVS ACRS THE AREA TUE AFTN/EVNG BRINGING A SLGT CHC OF
PCPN WITH IT. HI PRES BLDS INTO THE AREA FM THE W WED.
&&
.MARINE...
FOR THE MOST PART...MARINE WEATHER WILL BE RATHER TRANQUIL NEXT FEW
DAYS. EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT...WHEN SLY WINDS ON THE BAY WILL COME CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA.
WHILE SOME OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES MARGINAL SCA WILL BE
NEEDED...WILL KEEP WINDS JUST BELOW SCA FOR NOW...AND DAY SHIFT CAN
MAKE FINAL DETERMINATION. WINDS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN BLO SCA
CRITERIA...BUT WILL INCREASE TO 15 KT OR SO FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. WINDS DROP OFF ON SUNDAY...WITH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY LOOKING VERY NICE FOR MARINERS. NEXT FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY/WED...WITH A NLY/NWLY SURGE LIKELY BEHIND
FNT. THAT WILL BE THE NEXT SOLID CHANCE FOR SCAS MARINE AREA WIDE.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ012>016-
030>032.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ017.
VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ070>094-096-
097-099.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ095-098-100.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...BKH
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...WRS
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 070628
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
128 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AND
WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD PORTSMOUTH AND NORFOLK TO FROST ADVSY. LOWS
IN THE MID 30S AND LIGHT-CALM WINDS OVRNIGHT THIS AREA CUD SEE
SOME PATCHY FROST AS WELL. PREV DISC FOLLOWS.
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN. WITH
DEW PTS IN THE UPR 20S TO LOW 30S TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO THE MID-UPR 50
TO LWR 60S.
AS THE HIGH CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE RGN TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND
CLR SKIES WILL LEAD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
ALTHOUGH TEMPS THIS AFTN WERE A FEW HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED...THIS
SHOULD NOT HAMPER FCSTD LOWS TNT AS TEMPS WILL QUICKLY FALL AFTER
SUNSET. KEPT SAME HEADLINES AS EARLIER TODAY. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE
UPR 20S TO LOW 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND UPR 30S ALONG THE SE VA/NE
NC COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE 60S
ON SAT INLAND (UPR 50S ALONG THE COAST) AS A RETURN S-SW FLOW
STARTS TO DVLP. RETURN TO NEAR NRML LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
(UPR 3S TO LOW 40S) FOR SAT NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES. WARMING TREND
CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 60S ALONG THE
COAST TO THE LWR 70S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. ANOTHER
TRANQUIL DAY IN STORE FOR THE RGN ON MON (SIMILAR TEMPS AS SUN)
WITH HIGH PRES CONTINUING TO REMAIN IN CONTROL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO ARISE IN THE MODELS DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE GFS HASN`T HAD THE BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF
LATE...AND AT 12Z DEPARTED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE 06Z RUN/ENSEMBLE
MEAN. BY NEXT TUE...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A DEVELOPING LOW
IN THE GULF (SRN STREAM WAVE)...HOWEVER OVER TIME (THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK) THE GFS SHOWS THE LOW GRADUALLY MIGRATING LOW OFF THE
FL/GA COAST...WHILE THE ECMWF IS FARTHER S WITH THE DEEP-LAYER
RIDGING AND (THUS) THE LOW TRACK. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
MORE CONSISTENT ECWMF...THOUGH WILL TREND WITH A LITTLE MORE CLOUD
COVER OVER SRN PTNS OF THE FCST AREA TUE-FRI. OTRW...FOLLOWING
MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES WITH THE FRONT TUE/TUE NGT...HAVE OPTED TO
KEEP A DRY FCST GOING WED-FRI. TEMPS SEASONABLE...ARND 5-10F ABV
NORMAL TUE (MID 60S TO LWR 70S)...THOUGH CLOSER TO CLIMO WED-FRI
(LOW-MID 60S).
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR WL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD AS HI PRES REMAINS OVER THE MID
ATLNC RGN. A WEAK UPR LVL SHORT WV WL BRING A FEW HIGH PASSING
CLDS BY EARLY AFTN...OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEAR SKIES. A WEAK COLD
FNT MVS ACRS THE AREA TUE AFTN/EVNG BRINGING A SLGT CHC OF PCPN
WITH IT. HI PRES BLDS INTO THE AREA FM THE W WED.
&&
.MARINE...
UPDATED FOR EXPIRATION OF SCA.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.
WINDS/WAVES TO DIMINISH MORE RAPIDLY EARLY THIS EVENING.
MORE BENIGN CONDITIONS...AND GREAT BOATING CONDITIONS IN THE OFFING
FOR THE WEEKEND. SHORTWAVE TROF PASSING NORTH OF REGION LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO INCREASE THE SLY WINDS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF SFC HIGH. HAVE CONTINUED TO CAP CHANNELING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AOB 15 KTS ON THE BAY AND ~15 KTS ON THE OCEAN.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ012>016-
030>032.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ017.
VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ070>094-096-
097-099.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ095-098-100.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CCW
NEAR TERM...SMF/CCW/AM
SHORT TERM...CCW
LONG TERM...BKH
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...BKH/AM
000
FXUS61 KRNK 070451
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1151 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PIEDMONT WILL SLIDE EAST OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY RUNNING COLDER THAN FORECAST ACROSS THE
NEW RIVER VALLEY EAST INTO THE PIEDMONT. WITH WINDS REMAINING
LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES LOWERED MINS BY A CATEGORY
LOOKING AT MID TO UPPER 20S IN THE MTN VALLEYS AND AROUND 30 OUT
EAST. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE SW FROM FLAT TOP WV TO BOONE
WILL SEE MORE OF A SW FLOW DEVELOPING KEEPING THEM IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S. ANOTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS GOING LESS CLOUD COVER
EARLY BUT INCREASING THE NRN/WRN CWA WITH CIRRUS TOWARD 12Z AS
SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SENDS HIGH LVL MOISTURE OVER THE
CENTRAL APPS.
THIS BATCH OF HIGH CLOUD SHOULD BE EAST OF US BY MIDDAY SATURDAY
WITH MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE CONUS THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN REGION BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE MONDAY EVENING. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING MONDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST WHICH WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS
INCREASING THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN MODERATING LATE IN THE WEEKEND. EXPECT HIGHS
TO BE AROUND 70 ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A
SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGS IN SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WILL BE MOVING OFF SHORE ON MONDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DRAW PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD. SEVERAL MODELS YESTERDAY BROUGHT LIFT AND MOISTURE OVER
THE AREA TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. BUT THAT WAS YESTERDAY. 12Z FRI
GFS DISPLAYING NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS NOT PHASING
UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. INSTEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND SURFACE LOW BECOMING OCCLUDED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
WEDNESDAY...THE GFS HAS NEGATIVE TILTED SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THE SURFACE LOW IS WHAT-IS-NOW...TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA.
THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A CONSISTENT FORECAST WITH THE SYSTEM OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST. WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
AND RELY ON CONTINUITY. IF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA DOES MAINTAIN
HER COMPOSURE COMING OFF THE YUCATAN THEN THE GFS MAY BE ON TO
SOMETHING. STAY TUNE.
TEMPERATURES...OF COURSE...WILL DEPEND ON WHERE AND WHEN THE SYSTEM
PASSES TO OUR EAST. FOR NOW...HAVE TEMPERATURES AROUND CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDES CLOSE TO THE AREA MOVING OFFSHORE SAT AFTERNOON. A
SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL APPS OVERNIGHT IS GOING TO BRING
A LITTLE BIT OF CI/CS BUT NOTHING OF NOTE. SW WINDS IN THE 8 TO
12 KNOT RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED AT MOST TAF SITES AFTER 17Z SAT.
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO BRING ANY SORT OF WEATHER THREAT TO THE
AREA WILL NOT ENTER THE REGION UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. AT
THAT TIME...CLOUDS AND LOWERING CIGS CAN BE ANTICIPATED. UNTIL
THEN EXPECT NEAR CLOUD FREE CONDITIONS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY MINIMUMS OF 25 TO 35 PERCENT.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...REB/WP
NEAR TERM...REB/WP
SHORT TERM...REB
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...REB/WP
FIRE WEATHER...
000
FXUS61 KRNK 070335
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1035 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PIEDMONT WILL SLIDE EAST OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY RUNNING COLDER THAN FORECAST ACROSS THE
NEW RIVER VALLEY EAST INTO THE PIEDMONT. WITH WINDS REMAINING
LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES LOWERED MINS BY A CATEGORY
LOOKING AT MID TO UPPER 20S IN THE MTN VALLEYS AND AROUND 30 OUT
EAST. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE SW FROM FLAT TOP WV TO BOONE
WILL SEE MORE OF A SW FLOW DEVELOPING KEEPING THEM IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S. ANOTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS GOING LESS CLOUD COVER
EARLY BUT INCREASING THE NRN/WRN CWA WITH CIRRUS TOWARD 12Z AS
SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SENDS HIGH LVL MOISTURE OVER THE
CENTRAL APPS.
THIS BATCH OF HIGH CLOUD SHOULD BE EAST OF US BY MIDDAY SATURDAY
WITH MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE CONUS THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN REGION BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE MONDAY EVENING. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING MONDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST WHICH WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS
INCREASING THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN MODERATING LATE IN THE WEEKEND. EXPECT HIGHS
TO BE AROUND 70 ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A
SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGS IN SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WILL BE MOVING OFF SHORE ON MONDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DRAW PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD. SEVERAL MODELS YESTERDAY BROUGHT LIFT AND MOISTURE OVER
THE AREA TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. BUT THAT WAS YESTERDAY. 12Z FRI
GFS DISPLAYING NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS NOT PHASING
UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. INSTEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND SURFACE LOW BECOMING OCCLUDED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
WEDNESDAY...THE GFS HAS NEGATIVE TILTED SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THE SURFACE LOW IS WHAT-IS-NOW...TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA.
THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A CONSISTENT FORECAST WITH THE SYSTEM OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST. WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
AND RELY ON CONTINUITY. IF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA DOES MAINTAIN
HER COMPOSURE COMING OFF THE YUCATAN THEN THE GFS MAY BE ON TO
SOMETHING. STAY TUNE.
TEMPERATURES...OF COURSE...WILL DEPEND ON WHERE AND WHEN THE SYSTEM
PASSES TO OUR EAST. FOR NOW...HAVE TEMPERATURES AROUND CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDES CLOSE TO THE AREA MOVING OFFSHORE SAT AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
BRING SW WINDS IN THE 8 TO 12 KNOT RANGE AT MOST TAF SITES AFTER
17Z SAT.
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO BRING ANY SORT OF WEATHER THREAT TO THE
AREA WILL NOT ENTER THE REGION UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. AT
THAT TIME...CLOUDS AND LOWERING CIGS CAN BE ANTICIPATED. UNTIL
THEN EXPECT NEAR CLOUD FREE CONDITIONS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY MINIMUMS OF 25 TO 35 PERCENT.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...REB/WP
NEAR TERM...REB/WP
SHORT TERM...REB
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...REB/WP
FIRE WEATHER...
| 
