[top]
000
FXUS61 KBTV 082355
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
655 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO MONDAY BEFORE A WEAK
SYSTEM MOVES EAST OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK JUST AS THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL
SYSTEM REMAIN SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...WEDNESDAY ON INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 322 PM EST SUNDAY...NICE EVENING ON TAP FOR THE ENTIRE NORTH
COUNTRY AS SFC RIDGE TO REMAIN INTACT OVER THE ENTIRE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THIS WILL PROVIDE NEAR CALM CONDITIONS AND CLR SKIES. A
SHIFT TO THE EAST POSSIBLE OVERNGT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME INCR
WAA...SO WILL GO ABV MDL NUMBERS FOR LOWS BY A FEW DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 322 PM EST SUNDAY...RIDGE PUSHES OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. CWA WILL CONTINUES TO SEE ABV NORMAL TEMPS DURING THE DAY
AS SSW WINDS KEEP STRONG WAA FLOWING INTO THE AREA 850 TEMPS OF
+10C TO +12C WILL TRANSLATE IN SFC HIGHS IN THE 60S. A WEAK SFC
SYSTEM WILL RIDE OVER THE TOP OF RIDGE MON NGT INTO TUES. THIS WK
FEATURE WILL MV EASTWARD JUST OVER THE BORDER IN QUEBEC...GRAZING
N BORDER ZONES. THIS WILL HAVE LOW QPF DUE TO RIDGE BLOCKING GULF
MOISTURE SO WILL ONLY KEEP SL CHANCE IN FOR -RW FOR HIR
ELEV...MAINLY DUE TO SOME UPSLOPE EFFECTS. RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER
THE CWA FROM THE GREAT LKS REGION FOR TUES/TUES NGT. RETURNS FLOW
OVR CWA DURING THIS TIME FAVORS COOLER TEMPS AS N AND E WINDS WILL
BRING IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR TUESDAY. THIS RIDGE IN TURN BY
SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BLOCK THE APPROACH OF TROPICAL
REMNANTS AND STALL THEM OFF OF DELMARVA. NO PRECIP EXPECTED
TUES/TUES NGT BUT EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES MAY SEE SOME INCR
MID/HIGH CLDS IF LOW OFF DELMARVA PUSHES CLOSER TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 242 PM EST SUNDAY...PREDICTABILITY HAS BEEN LOW FOR THE EXTENDED
FCST PERIOD DURING THE LAST SEVERAL CYCLES...WITH LITTLE RUN-TO-
RUN OR MODEL-TO-MODEL CONSISTENCY. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT 12Z
NWP GUIDANCE SUITE IS SHOWING A BIT BETTER CONSISTENCY. MAIN ISSUE
HAS BEEN COMPLEX INTERACTION OF THE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
NOW ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...A SLOW EWD MOVING CLOSED LOW
ACROSS SWRN TX...AND NWD MIGRATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH
THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH THESE FEATURES AND POTENTIAL EXTENT OF
PHASING AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS
THE TROUGH MERGER WILL TAKE PLACE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST THAN
INDICATED BY PREVIOUS RUNS - ACROSS THE TN RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
CAROLINAS - LEAVING THE SFC RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER WED-SAT. THIS SFC RIDGE SHOULD HELP TO
LIMIT THE NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY PER 12Z
GFS SOLN. HAVE LARGELY FOLLOWED THIS SOLN...KEEPING THE NORTH
COUNTRY DRY WITH JUST A PERIOD OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY FOR
SRN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DO NOT
FORESEE ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY AS LONG AS
THESE TRENDS HOLD. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...ESPECIALLY FROM FRIDAY ONWARD THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AS SFC RIDGE
SHIFTS EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND THEN INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE AFTER 12Z MONDAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AT THE TAF
SITES DURING THE PERIOD WITH NO RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY ANTICIPATED.
WINDS...GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS WILL STRENGTHEN
FROM THE SOUTH ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE SFC RIDGE DURING MONDAY
MORNING. LOOKING AT SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS
POSSIBLE AFT 14Z MONDAY...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WITH CHANNELING
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SOUTH TO SW SFC WINDS OF 15-25 KTS
ERLR IN THE AFTN WL BE SUBSIDING BY 00Z TUESDAY AND BECMG NW
DURING MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST
MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND VFR FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR TUESDAY. PREDICTABILITY REMAINS LOW DURING THE
WED THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD...BUT VFR CONDITIONS NOW APPEAR MORE
LIKELY BASED ON THE 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...AMF/JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS/SLW
[top]
000
FXUS61 KALY 082329
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
629 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTHEAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
PUMP MILD AIR OUR WAY THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SURFACE WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY HAS TRACKED THROUGH THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NO CLOUDS ARE WITHIN MANY MILES OF OUR
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT...AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT...AND TREND TOWARD A LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH DEW POINTS
BEGINNING TO SLOWLY RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND COLD AIR INTERACTING
WITH WARMER LAKES AND RIVERS...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE SHORES OF RIVERS AND LAKES THROUGHOUT THE REGION. LOWS IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY MORNING FOG WILL LIFT...AND THE SKY SHOULD BE SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH...BREEZY AT TIMES IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY. BASED ON UPSTREAM BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES...WEST TO SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...AND THE
HIGHS UPSTREAM THIS AFTERNOON AS AN INDICATION...WE SHOULD GET A
COUPLE/FEW DEGREES WARMER TOMORROW...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...NEAR
70 WARMER SPOTS.
COLD FRONT APPROACHES TOMORROW NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH TIMING
FROM GUIDANCE SOURCES CONTINUING TO INDICATE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES. WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND A MIX OF
CLOUDS...LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 40S...NEAR 50 WARMER SPOTS...AND
AROUND 40 IN THE ADIRONDACKS. SOME MIX OF CLOUDS MAY BE AROUND
TUESDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TIGHTENING...AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTOGENESIS...ALONG WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST...AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES JUST
BEGINNING TO COOL. HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER...BUT STILL
ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS AROUND 60 TO MID 60S...LOWER TO MID 50S
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...SO NOT INCLUDING AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AT THIS POINT.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT STRONG LOW
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS EAST FROM THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...ALONG
WITH LOW LEVEL COOLING. THE QUESTION OF WHEN/IF IDA INTERACTS WITH
UPPER ENERGY TRACKING EAST OUT OF THE OH/TN VALLEYS...AND WHAT
POTENTIAL STORM OR NO STORM RESULTS. MOST GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES
EITHER DELAY ANY MERGING...OR KEEP A POTENTIAL STORM WELL SOUTH
OF OUR REGION...SO KEEPING OUR REGION DRY AND CONTINUED DEEP
COOLING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE
HOW THIS ALL EVOLVES...BUT VERY HIGH UNCERTAINTIES. AT THIS
POINT...SUGGESTING LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S...AND HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50...BUT SUBJECT TO CHANGE DEPENDING
ON WHAT NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS DO IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERALL DRY PATTERN EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MODELS
IN DISAGREEMENT WITH GFS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN ECMWF. THEREFORE
WENT WITH HPC GUIDANCE WHICH HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
TO START THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH
TO OUR SOUTH TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. ECMWF ALSO
INDICATES THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO REMAIN NEAR FLORIDA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE GREAT LAKES HIGH AND SOUTHEAST U.S. LOW
INCREASES.
THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD...ALLOWING FOR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR HUDSON/S BAY
TO BRING IN SOME PRECIP TO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THIS SYSTEM MAY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES NY. HAVE GONE WITH LOW CHC
SO FAR OUT INTO THE FCST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...
RUNNING AROUND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH MAX AND MIN
TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AND OFF THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY.
KGFL...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z/TUE. HOWEVER...THERE
IS A CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS LATER THIS EVENING...AND OCCASIONALLY
THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY DUE TO PATCHY GROUND FOG. WINDS WILL BE
NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT...THEN WILL BECOME S TO SW AT 5-10 KT
MONDAY...WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 15-18 KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
KALB...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z/TUE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE
THIS EVENING...THEN WILL BECOME SE TO S LATER TONIGHT AT LESS THAN 5
KT...AND INCREASING FROM THE S ON MONDAY AT 10-15 KT...WITH SOME
GUSTS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
KPOU...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z/TUE...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHC
OF BRIEF MVFR/IFR VSBYS AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...THEN BECOME S TO SW AT 8-12 KT ON MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MON NGT-FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
HOWEVER...BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE SOME CONCERN THAT SOME MOISTURE
FROM IDA COULD HEAD OUR WAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER
THAN NORMAL...BUT SOME FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO AFFECT OUR REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER MOST OTHER SCENARIOS KEEP US
MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE SAME TIME FRAME.
STAY TUNED FOR ANY UPDATES CONCERNING THIS UPCOMING SCENARIO.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KGS
AVIATION...KL/ELH
HYDROLOGY...NAS
000
FXUS61 KALY 082051
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
351 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTHEAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
PUMP MILD AIR OUR WAY THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SURFACE WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY HAS TRACKED THROUGH THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NO CLOUDS ARE WITHIN MANY MILES OF OUR
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT...AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT...AND TREND TOWARD A LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH DEW POINTS
BEGINNING TO SLOWLY RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND COLD AIR INTERACTING
WITH WARMER LAKES AND RIVERS...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE SHORES OF RIVERS AND LAKES THROUGHOUT THE REGION. LOWS IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY MORNING FOG WILL LIFT...AND THE SKY SHOULD BE SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH...BREEZY AT TIMES IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY. BASED ON UPSTREAM BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES...WEST TO SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...AND THE
HIGHS UPSTREAM THIS AFTERNOON AS AN INDICATION...WE SHOULD GET A
COUPLE/FEW DEGREES WARMER TOMORROW...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...NEAR
70 WARMER SPOTS.
COLD FRONT APPROACHES TOMORROW NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH TIMING
FROM GUIDANCE SOURCES CONTINUING TO INDICATE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES. WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND A MIX OF
CLOUDS...LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 40S...NEAR 50 WARMER SPOTS...AND
AROUND 40 IN THE ADIRONDACKS. SOME MIX OF CLOUDS MAY BE AROUND
TUESDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TIGHTENING...AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTOGENESIS...ALONG WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST...AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES JUST
BEGINNING TO COOL. HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER...BUT STILL
ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS AROUND 60 TO MID 60S...LOWER TO MID 50S
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...SO NOT INCLUDING AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AT THIS POINT.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT STRONG LOW
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS EAST FROM THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...ALONG
WITH LOW LEVEL COOLING. THE QUESTION OF WHEN/IF IDA INTERACTS WITH
UPPER ENERGY TRACKING EAST OUT OF THE OH/TN VALLEYS...AND WHAT
POTENTIAL STORM OR NO STORM RESULTS. MOST GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES
EITHER DELAY ANY MERGING...OR KEEP A POTENTIAL STORM WELL SOUTH
OF OUR REGION...SO KEEPING OUR REGION DRY AND CONTINUED DEEP
COOLING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE
HOW THIS ALL EVOLVES...BUT VERY HIGH UNCERTAINTIES. AT THIS
POINT...SUGGESTING LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S...AND HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50...BUT SUBJECT TO CHANGE DEPENDING
ON WHAT NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS DO IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERALL DRY PATTERN EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MODELS
IN DISAGREEMENT WITH GFS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN ECMWF. THEREFORE
WENT WITH HPC GUIDANCE WHICH HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
TO START THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH
TO OUR SOUTH TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. ECMWF ALSO
INDICATES THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO REMAIN NEAR FLORIDA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE GREAT LAKES HIGH AND SOUTHEAST U.S. LOW
INCREASES.
THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD...ALLOWING FOR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR HUDSON/S BAY
TO BRING IN SOME PRECIP TO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THIS SYSTEM MAY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES NY. HAVE GONE WITH LOW CHC
SO FAR OUT INTO THE FCST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...
RUNNING AROUND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH MAX AND MIN
TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BASICALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE LAND THIS AFTERNOON AS EARLIER SC ERODED
DUE TO DOWNSLOPING. A WEAK COLD FRONT CAME THROUGH GFL AND ALB AS
OF 1730Z...KICKING NW WINDS UP TO A FEW KNOTS...BUT THIS WILL
QUICKLY SUBSIDE DURING THE EARLY HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. THUS THE
BALANCE OF TODAY WILL OFFER AN IDEAL FLYING OPPORTUNITY.
A LAYER OF HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS NE PA MAY CONDENSE INTO
CI AS IT PASSES NEAR POU...OTRW CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
LATER ON TONIGHT WHEN SOME CI/AC ROLLS IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF A
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE AT
GFL...BUT WHETHER IT GETS ALL THE WAY DOWN DOWN TO IFR IS
QUESTIONABLE. SO...OUTSIDE OF GFL...WE ARE LOOKING AT VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
MON PM-MON NGT...VFR...NO SIG WX.
TUE-WED...CHC -SHRA/-RA. CHC MVFR CIG/VSBY...MAINLY POU.
WED NGT-THU...VFR...NO WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
HOWEVER...BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE SOME CONCERN THAT SOME MOISTURE
FROM IDA COULD HEAD OUR WAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER
THAN NORMAL...BUT SOME FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO AFFECT OUR REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER MOST OTHER SCENARIOS KEEP US
MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE SAME TIME FRAME.
STAY TUNED FOR ANY UPDATES CONCERNING THIS UPCOMING SCENARIO.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KGS
AVIATION...ELH
HYDROLOGY...NAS
000
FXUS61 KBTV 082022
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
322 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO MONDAY BEFORE A WEAK
SYSTEM MOVES EAST OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK JUST AS THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL
SYSTEM REMAIN SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...WEDNESDAY ON INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 322 PM EST SUNDAY...NICE EVENING ON TAP FOR THE ENTIRE NORTH
COUNTRY AS SFC RIDGE TO REMAIN INTACT OVER THE ENTIRE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THIS WILL PROVIDE NEAR CALM CONDITIONS AND CLR SKIES. A
SHIFT TO THE EAST POSSIBLE OVERNGT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME INCR
WAA...SO WILL GO ABV MDL NUMBERS FOR LOWS BY A FEW DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 322 PM EST SUNDAY...RIDGE PUSHES OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. CWA WILL CONTINUES TO SEE ABV NORMAL TEMPS DURING THE DAY
AS SSW WINDS KEEP STRONG WAA FLOWING INTO THE AREA 850 TEMPS OF
+10C TO +12C WILL TRANSLATE IN SFC HIGHS IN THE 60S. A WEAK SFC
SYSTEM WILL RIDE OVER THE TOP OF RIDGE MON NGT INTO TUES. THIS WK
FEATURE WILL MV EASTWARD JUST OVER THE BORDER IN QUEBEC...GRAZING
N BORDER ZONES. THIS WILL HAVE LOW QPF DUE TO RIDGE BLOCKING GULF
MOISTURE SO WILL ONLY KEEP SL CHANCE IN FOR -RW FOR HIR
ELEV...MAINLY DUE TO SOME UPSLOPE EFFECTS. RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER
THE CWA FROM THE GREAT LKS REGION FOR TUES/TUES NGT. RETURNS FLOW
OVR CWA DURING THIS TIME FAVORS COOLER TEMPS AS N AND E WINDS WILL
BRING IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR TUESDAY. THIS RIDGE IN TURN BY
SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BLOCK THE APPROACH OF TROPICAL
REMNANTS AND STALL THEM OFF OF DELMARVA. NO PRECIP EXPECTED
TUES/TUES NGT BUT EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES MAY SEE SOME INCR
MID/HIGH CLDS IF LOW OFF DELMARVA PUSHES CLOSER TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 242 PM EST SUNDAY...PREDICTABILITY HAS BEEN LOW FOR THE EXTENDED
FCST PERIOD DURING THE LAST SEVERAL CYCLES...WITH LITTLE RUN-TO-
RUN OR MODEL-TO-MODEL CONSISTENCY. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT 12Z
NWP GUIDANCE SUITE IS SHOWING A BIT BETTER CONSISTENCY. MAIN ISSUE
HAS BEEN COMPLEX INTERACTION OF THE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
NOW ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...A SLOW EWD MOVING CLOSED LOW
ACROSS SWRN TX...AND NWD MIGRATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH
THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH THESE FEATURES AND POTENTIAL EXTENT OF
PHASING AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS
THE TROUGH MERGER WILL TAKE PLACE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST THAN
INDICATED BY PREVIOUS RUNS - ACROSS THE TN RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
CAROLINAS - LEAVING THE SFC RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER WED-SAT. THIS SFC RIDGE SHOULD HELP TO
LIMIT THE NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY PER 12Z
GFS SOLN. HAVE LARGELY FOLLOWED THIS SOLN...KEEPING THE NORTH
COUNTRY DRY WITH JUST A PERIOD OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY FOR
SRN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DO NOT
FORESEE ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY AS LONG AS
THESE TRENDS HOLD. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...ESPECIALLY FROM FRIDAY ONWARD THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AS SFC RIDGE
SHIFTS EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT
AND THEN INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AFTER 12Z MONDAY. SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR AT THE TAF SITES DURING THE PERIOD WITH NO
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY ANTICIPATED. WINDS...GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HRS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTH ON THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF THE SFC RIDGE DURING MONDAY MORNING. LOOKING AT SOUTH
WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE AFT 14Z
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WITH CHANNELING IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY.
18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SOUTH TO SW SFC WINDS OF 15-25 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HRS BEFORE
DIMINISHING AND BECMG NW DURING MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND VFR FOLLOWING
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR TUESDAY. PREDICTABILITY REMAINS LOW DURING
THE WED THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD...BUT VFR CONDITIONS NOW APPEAR MORE
LIKELY BASED ON THE 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
000
FXUS61 KBTV 081944
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
244 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WILL REMAIN
THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
MONDAY...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION CONTINUES
INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE IDA MOVES UP THE
ATLANTIC COAST. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1040 AM EST SUNDAY...HAVE UPDATED GOING FORECAST TO ADJUST
CLD COVER WORDING AND HIGH TEMPS FOR THE DAY. LATEST VIS SAT PIC
SHOWS CLD COVER FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED
SO REWORDED TO HAVE SUNNY SKIES VERSUS MSUNNY. W/ LACK OF CLD
COVER TEMPS HAVE SHOT UP VERY QUICKLY W/ SOME SPOTS GOING ABV
ALREADY FORECASTED NUMBERS SO HAVE ADJUSTED FOR ALL ZONES TO HAVE
AROUND 60F/LOW 60S. REST OF FORECAST IN GD SHAPE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS AROUND AS OF 3AM. PLENTY OF CLEARING NOTED THOUGH ON IR
SATELLITE UPSTREAM IN SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...WHICH SHOULD
SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. LOOKING FOR PARTY SUNNY
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING...BECOMING CLEAR BY THE
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED SOUTH/SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION TODAY...WITH MAX
TEMPS GENERALLY TOPPING OUT IN THE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 344 AM EST SUNDAY...DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE
SOME GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 20S ELSEWHERE. ON
MONDAY...850HPA TEMPS WARM TO +8-10C ACROSS THE REGION AND WITH
SUNNY SKIES FORECAST TO CONTINUE EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE
CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH MOST AREAS WARMING INTO THE
60S. NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS FEATURE WITH THE NAM BEING THE OUTLIER...THUS HAVE TRENDED
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST MORE TOWARDS THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION
WHICH FEATURES AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION ON TUESDAY. CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL START TO
FILTER IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MORE ON TUESDAY NIGHT BELOW...
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 242 PM EST SUNDAY...PREDICTABILITY HAS BEEN LOW FOR THE EXTENDED
FCST PERIOD DURING THE LAST SEVERAL CYCLES...WITH LITTLE RUN-TO-
RUN OR MODEL-TO-MODEL CONSISTENCY. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT 12Z
NWP GUIDANCE SUITE IS SHOWING A BIT BETTER CONSISTENCY. MAIN ISSUE
HAS BEEN COMPLEX INTERACTION OF THE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
NOW ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...A SLOW EWD MOVING CLOSED LOW
ACROSS SWRN TX...AND NWD MIGRATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH
THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH THESE FEATURES AND POTENTIAL EXTENT OF
PHASING AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS
THE TROUGH MERGER WILL TAKE PLACE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST THAN
INDICATED BY PREVIOUS RUNS - ACROSS THE TN RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
CAROLINAS - LEAVING THE SFC RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER WED-SAT. THIS SFC RIDGE SHOULD HELP TO
LIMIT THE NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY PER 12Z
GFS SOLN. HAVE LARGELY FOLLOWED THIS SOLN...KEEPING THE NORTH
COUNTRY DRY WITH JUST A PERIOD OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY FOR
SRN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DO NOT
FORESEE ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY AS LONG AS
THESE TRENDS HOLD. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...ESPECIALLY FROM FRIDAY ONWARD THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AS SFC RIDGE
SHIFTS EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT
AND THEN INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AFTER 12Z MONDAY. SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR AT THE TAF SITES DURING THE PERIOD WITH NO
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY ANTICIPATED. WINDS...GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HRS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTH ON THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF THE SFC RIDGE DURING MONDAY MORNING. LOOKING AT SOUTH
WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE AFT 14Z
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WITH CHANNELING IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY.
18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SOUTH TO SW SFC WINDS OF 15-25 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HRS BEFORE
DIMINISHING AND BECMG NW DURING MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND VFR FOLLOWING
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR TUESDAY. PREDICTABILITY REMAINS LOW DURING
THE WED THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD...BUT VFR CONDITIONS NOW APPEAR MORE
LIKELY BASED ON THE 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...JN/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
000
FXUS61 KALY 081753
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1252 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTHEAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
PUMP MILD AIR OUR WAY THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 915 AM...SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
DACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS...OTHERWISE SKC. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT.
IN ITS WAKE...SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE AXIS COMES ACROSS FOR A
TRANQUIL AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAIN UPDATE TO THE GRIDS/FORECAST
WAS TO MATCH DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE AND SLIGHT ENHANCEMENTS TO
THE SKY COVER FORECAST.
AS OF 400 AM...AN AMAZING CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES THIS OVERNIGHT
VERSUS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IN MANY CASES...THEY ARE ABOUT 25
DEGREES WARMER DUE TO A BREEZE AND PATCHY CLOUDS. THE CLOUDS ARE DUE
TO A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR WHAT`S LEFT OF ONE) WORKING ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK STATE. NO PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLOUDS. THE FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT AND EVENTUALLY THE CLOUDS
WILL MOVE ON (ACCORDING TO IR SATELLITE PICTURES).
THE CLOUDS LOOK TO LEAVE AROUND SUNRISE. IF THEY DO...TEMPERATURES
COULD DROP A FEW POINTS...BUT WITH THE BREEZE...THEY WILL REMAIN
MUCH MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 40.
THE PASSAGE OF THE VERY WEAK FRONT WILL DO LITTLE TO COOL TEMPS. IN
FACT...H850 TEMPS MIGHT ACTUALLY A WARM A POINT OR SO TODAY TO ABOUT
+9C. FULL MIXING WOULD TRANSLATE TO TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S. WHILE
THAT WILL NOT HAPPEN...MIXING TO ABOUT THE 925MB WILL ALLOW
READINGS TO REACH BETWEEN 55 TO AROUND 60 IN MOST PLACES...AND AS
HIGH AS THE MID 60S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE VALUES ARE ABOUT
10 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL. A LIGHT TO WESTERLY BREEZE WILL
AVERAGE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BY TONIGHT...THE SKY WILL REMAIN CLEAR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUBBLE BUILDS RIGHT OVER TOP OF US. THIS WOULD NORMALLY LEAD TO
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONSIDERING THE LENGTH OF NIGHT (NOW
AROUND 10 HOURS). HOWEVER...H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING A
LITTLE MORE...HOVERING AROUND +10C. THIS MILD AIR ALOFT SHOULD
ACTUALLY HELP OFFSET THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. WENT WITH A BLEND OF
THE WARMER MET/COOLER MAVS. WE FEEL OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH AROUND FREEZING IN THE SOME OF COLDER SHELTERED
VALLEYS...OTHERWISE 35 TO 40 IN MOST PLACES.
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WITH A RIDGE ALOFT...A
BONAFIDE BERMUDA HIGH IN NOVEMBER. H850 TEMPERATURES COULD REACH
OVER +12C IN OUR REGION. THE MIXING LEVEL LOOKS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
SUNDAY. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO
SURFACE TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS...EXCEPT 55 TO
60 HIGHER TERRAIN. RIGHT NOW...THESE READINGS LOOK A LITTLE SHORT OF
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON NOVEMBER BUT IT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL.
ON MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THIS FRONT WOULD SERVE TO INCREASE CLOUDS AND A BREEZE. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO STAY QUITE MILD MONDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY DROPPING TO THE 45
TO 50 RANGE...EXCEPT CLOSER TO 40 IN OUR NORTHEAST AREAS WHICH WILL
BE BEHIND THE FRONT BY SUNRISE WITH H850 TEMPERATURES COOLING TO
ABOUT +6C.
BY TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES FROM ONE ANOTHER. THE 00Z/06ZS
NAM INDICATED THE COLD FRONT WOULD MOVE THROUGH WILL LITTLE
FANFARE...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WOULD BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH.
HOWEVER...THE OTHER MODELS DO NOT TOTALLY SUPPORT THIS DECISION. FOR
ONE THING...AN UNSEASONABLY LATE HURRICANE (IDA) LURKS OFF CENTRAL
AMERICA...AND BY THIS TIME...WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. TO FURTHER COMPLICATE MATTERS...A POTENT SHORT WAVE...COMING
OFF THE PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO BUCKLE THE SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM AND
FROM AN UPPER AIR LOW AT THE VERY LEAST SOMEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THE NAM IS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE BUT OF COURSE ONLY
GOES OUT 84 HOURS.
THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS BRINGS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IDA AND OR
THE UPPER LOW MUCH FURTHER NORTH AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
STALLS OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z EUROPEAN IS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE GFS SOLUTION. THE CANADIAN GEM LEANS MORE WITH THE NAM...KEEPING
MOST OF THE MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH.
THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAST THE UPPER AIR LOW WILL CUTOFF? IF IT
CUTS OFF FURTHER SOUTH...WHAT IS LEFT OF IDA (ALONG WITH ITS
MOISTURE) WILL NOT BE ABLE TO MOVE UP INTO OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL BY TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR
NOW...WILL ASSIGN A 50 POP AND LET IT GO AT THAT. BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS INDICATE IT WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW IN THE DACKS BY
LATE OVERNIGHT SHOULD PRECIPITATION TAKE PLACE.
GENERALLY WENT WITH A MAV/MET BLEND THROUGHOUT WITH SOME LOCAL
TWEAKING.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS AND THE LAST 12 HOURS...THE LONG TERM
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIR AND DRY AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES OVER THE REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE.
WILL BE DECREASING POPS AND PARTIALLY CLEARING THE SKY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
OFFSHORE LOW CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOVES TO THE EAST. AFTER
THAT...THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN RATHER
COOL WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE COOLEST
WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PCPN
WILL LINGER THE LONGEST. WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TEMPS THERE SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE BETWEEN 20 TO 30 AND THE HIGHS THURSDAY
IN THE 40S. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...A
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN AFTER THURSDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
25 TO 30...AND 30 TO 35 FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...AND THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ON SATURDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS RAPIDLY ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT FOR SATURDAY AS
THIS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH THE LOWEST POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BASICALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE LAND THIS AFTERNOON AS EARLIER SC ERODED
DUE TO DOWNSLOPING. A WEAK COLD FRONT CAME THROUGH GFL AND ALB AS
OF 1730Z...KICKING NW WINDS UP TO A FEW KNOTS...BUT THIS WILL
QUICKLY SUBSIDE DURING THE EARLY HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. THUS THE
BALANCE OF TODAY WILL OFFER AN IDEAL FLYING OPPORTUNITY.
A LAYER OF HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS NE PA MAY CONDENSE INTO
CI AS IT PASSES NEAR POU...OTRW CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
LATER ON TONIGHT WHEN SOME CI/AC ROLLS IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF A
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE AT
GFL...BUT WHETHER IT GETS ALL THE WAY DOWN DOWN TO IFR IS
QUESTIONABLE. SO...OUTSIDE OF GFL...WE ARE LOOKING AT VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
MON PM-MON NGT...VFR...NO SIG WX.
TUE-WED...CHC -SHRA/-RA. CHC MVFR CIG/VSBY...MAINLY POU.
WED NGT-THU...VFR...NO WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
HOWEVER...BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE SOME CONCERN THAT SOME MOISTURE
FROM IDA COULD HEAD OUR WAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN
NORMAL...BUT SOME FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SOAKING RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER OTHER
SCENARIOS KEEP US MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE SAME TIME FRAME.
STAY TUNED FOR ANY UPDATES CONCERNING THIS UPCOMING SCENARIO.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...ELH
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
000
FXUS61 KBTV 081749
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1249 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WILL REMAIN
THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
MONDAY...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION CONTINUES
INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE IDA MOVES UP THE
ATLANTIC COAST. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1040 AM EST SUNDAY...HAVE UPDATED GOING FORECAST TO ADJUST
CLD COVER WORDING AND HIGH TEMPS FOR THE DAY. LATEST VIS SAT PIC
SHOWS CLD COVER FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED
SO REWORDED TO HAVE SUNNY SKIES VERSUS MSUNNY. W/ LACK OF CLD
COVER TEMPS HAVE SHOT UP VERY QUICKLY W/ SOME SPOTS GOING ABV
ALREADY FORECASTED NUMBERS SO HAVE ADJUSTED FOR ALL ZONES TO HAVE
AROUND 60F/LOW 60S. REST OF FORECAST IN GD SHAPE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS AROUND AS OF 3AM. PLENTY OF CLEARING NOTED THOUGH ON IR
SATELLITE UPSTREAM IN SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...WHICH SHOULD
SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. LOOKING FOR PARTY SUNNY
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING...BECOMING CLEAR BY THE
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED SOUTH/SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION TODAY...WITH MAX
TEMPS GENERALLY TOPPING OUT IN THE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 344 AM EST SUNDAY...DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE
SOME GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 20S ELSEWHERE. ON
MONDAY...850HPA TEMPS WARM TO +8-10C ACROSS THE REGION AND WITH
SUNNY SKIES FORECAST TO CONTINUE EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE
CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH MOST AREAS WARMING INTO THE
60S. NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS FEATURE WITH THE NAM BEING THE OUTLIER...THUS HAVE TRENDED
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST MORE TOWARDS THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION
WHICH FEATURES AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION ON TUESDAY. CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL START TO
FILTER IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MORE ON TUESDAY NIGHT BELOW...
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 344 AM EST SUNDAY...THE OVERALL PREDICTABILITY OF THE
PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE AT
THIS TIME. MAIN ISSUE IS WHETHER PHASING WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWRD ACROSS
GRTLKS TUESDAY NIGHT AND TROUGH MOVING ACROSS GULF STATES TUESDAY
WHICH WILL BECOME ASSOCD WITH HURRICANE IDA. PLENTY OF MODEL
DIFFERENCES RESULTING IN A VARIETY OF POSSIBLE OUTCOMES. FOR
NOW...HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH IS
FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE GFS. MAIN IMPACT FOR OUR FORECAST AREA GIVEN
THIS SOLUTION WOULD BE FROM TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GRTLKS
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MOISTURE ASSOCD WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM
REMAINING FURTHER SOUTH. EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT (ALTHOUGH IF ECMWF/GFS VERIFY...THESE POPS WOULD NEED TO BE
RAISED AS EVENT NEARS). AS COLDER AIR IN LLVLS IS DRAWN SOUTH INTO
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT ON INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW...EXPECT
RAIN TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SOME WET SNOW...MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. PHASING BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
SHRTWVS THEN OCCURS WEDNESDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THIS
WOULD OCCUR TOO FAR EAST FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON FORECAST
AREA. LINGERING PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD TAPER OFF.
DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE POISED TO
THE NORTH AND WEST WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THE HIGH THEN REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER
THROUGH FRIDAY. COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL IN ADVANCE OF
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AS SFC RIDGE
SHIFTS EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT
AND THEN INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AFTER 12Z MONDAY. SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR AT THE TAF SITES DURING THE PERIOD WITH NO
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY ANTICIPATED. WINDS...GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HRS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTH ON THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF THE SFC RIDGE DURING MONDAY MORNING. LOOKING AT SOUTH
WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE AFT 14Z
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WITH CHANNELING IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY.
18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SOUTH TO SW SFC WINDS OF 15-25 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HRS BEFORE
DIMINISHING AND BECMG NW DURING MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND VFR FOLLOWING
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR TUESDAY. PREDICTABILITY REMAINS LOW DURING
THE WED THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD...BUT VFR CONDITIONS NOW APPEAR MORE
LIKELY BASED ON THE 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...JN/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...BANACOS
000
FXUS61 KBTV 081540
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1040 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WILL REMAIN
THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
MONDAY...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION CONTINUES
INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE IDA MOVES UP THE
ATLANTIC COAST. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1040 AM EST SUNDAY...HAVE UPDATED GOING FORECAST TO ADJUST
CLD COVER WORDING AND HIGH TEMPS FOR THE DAY. LATEST VIS SAT PIC
SHOWS CLD COVER FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED
SO REWORDED TO HAVE SUNNY SKIES VERSUS MSUNNY. W/ LACK OF CLD
COVER TEMPS HAVE SHOT UP VERY QUICKLY W/ SOME SPOTS GOING ABV
ALREADY FORECASTED NUMBERS SO HAVE ADJUSTED FOR ALL ZONES TO HAVE
AROUND 60F/LOW 60S. REST OF FORECAST IN GD SHAPE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS AROUND AS OF 3AM. PLENTY OF CLEARING NOTED THOUGH ON IR
SATELLITE UPSTREAM IN SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...WHICH SHOULD
SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. LOOKING FOR PARTY SUNNY
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING...BECOMING CLEAR BY THE
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED SOUTH/SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION TODAY...WITH MAX
TEMPS GENERALLY TOPPING OUT IN THE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 344 AM EST SUNDAY...DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE
SOME GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 20S ELSEWHERE. ON
MONDAY...850HPA TEMPS WARM TO +8-10C ACROSS THE REGION AND WITH
SUNNY SKIES FORECAST TO CONTINUE EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE
CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH MOST AREAS WARMING INTO THE
60S. NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS FEATURE WITH THE NAM BEING THE OUTLIER...THUS HAVE TRENDED
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST MORE TOWARDS THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION
WHICH FEATURES AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION ON TUESDAY. CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL START TO
FILTER IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MORE ON TUESDAY NIGHT BELOW...
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 344 AM EST SUNDAY...THE OVERALL PREDICTABILITY OF THE
PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE AT
THIS TIME. MAIN ISSUE IS WHETHER PHASING WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWRD ACROSS
GRTLKS TUESDAY NIGHT AND TROUGH MOVING ACROSS GULF STATES TUESDAY
WHICH WILL BECOME ASSOCD WITH HURRICANE IDA. PLENTY OF MODEL
DIFFERENCES RESULTING IN A VARIETY OF POSSIBLE OUTCOMES. FOR
NOW...HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH IS
FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE GFS. MAIN IMPACT FOR OUR FORECAST AREA GIVEN
THIS SOLUTION WOULD BE FROM TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GRTLKS
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MOISTURE ASSOCD WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM
REMAINING FURTHER SOUTH. EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT (ALTHOUGH IF ECMWF/GFS VERIFY...THESE POPS WOULD NEED TO BE
RAISED AS EVENT NEARS). AS COLDER AIR IN LLVLS IS DRAWN SOUTH INTO
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT ON INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW...EXPECT
RAIN TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SOME WET SNOW...MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. PHASING BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
SHRTWVS THEN OCCURS WEDNESDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THIS
WOULD OCCUR TOO FAR EAST FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON FORECAST
AREA. LINGERING PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD TAPER OFF.
DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE POISED TO
THE NORTH AND WEST WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THE HIGH THEN REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER
THROUGH FRIDAY. COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL IN ADVANCE OF
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR MVFR CIGS AT KSLK EARLY TODAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT BKN040-050
TILL ABOUT 14Z WITH TEMPO BKN020 AT KSLK...BECOMING SKC AT ALL
TAF SITES BY 15Z. WINDS WILL BE S-SW EARLY TODAY...BECOMING
WESTERLY AROUND 10 KTS LATER THIS MORNING...THEN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER 22Z.
OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR.
TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLE FRONTAL WAVE
WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM WEST TO EAST BRINGING A CHC
OF SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
A PERIOD OF IFR PSBL TUE NITE WHEN RAIN MAY MIX WITH/CHANGE TO SNOW.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...JN/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS
000
FXUS61 KALY 081419
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
920 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTHEAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
PUMP MILD AIR OUR WAY THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 915 AM...SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
DACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS...OTHERWISE SKC. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT.
IN ITS WAKE...SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE AXIS COMES ACROSS FOR A
TRANQUIL AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAIN UPDATE TO THE GRIDS/FORECAST
WAS TO MATCH DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE AND SLIGHT ENHANCEMENTS TO
THE SKY COVER FORECAST.
AS OF 400 AM...AN AMAZING CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES THIS OVERNIGHT
VERSUS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IN MANY CASES...THEY ARE ABOUT 25
DEGREES WARMER DUE TO A BREEZE AND PATCHY CLOUDS. THE CLOUDS ARE DUE
TO A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR WHAT`S LEFT OF ONE) WORKING ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK STATE. NO PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLOUDS. THE FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT AND EVENTUALLY THE CLOUDS
WILL MOVE ON (ACCORDING TO IR SATELLITE PICTURES).
THE CLOUDS LOOK TO LEAVE AROUND SUNRISE. IF THEY DO...TEMPERATURES
COULD DROP A FEW POINTS...BUT WITH THE BREEZE...THEY WILL REMAIN
MUCH MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 40.
THE PASSAGE OF THE VERY WEAK FRONT WILL DO LITTLE TO COOL TEMPS. IN
FACT...H850 TEMPS MIGHT ACTUALLY A WARM A POINT OR SO TODAY TO ABOUT
+9C. FULL MIXING WOULD TRANSLATE TO TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S. WHILE
THAT WILL NOT HAPPEN...MIXING TO ABOUT THE 925MB WILL ALLOW
READINGS TO REACH BETWEEN 55 TO AROUND 60 IN MOST PLACES...AND AS
HIGH AS THE MID 60S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE VALUES ARE ABOUT
10 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL. A LIGHT TO WESTERLY BREEZE WILL
AVERAGE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BY TONIGHT...THE SKY WILL REMAIN CLEAR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUBBLE BUILDS RIGHT OVER TOP OF US. THIS WOULD NORMALLY LEAD TO
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONSIDERING THE LENGTH OF NIGHT (NOW
AROUND 10 HOURS). HOWEVER...H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING A
LITTLE MORE...HOVERING AROUND +10C. THIS MILD AIR ALOFT SHOULD
ACTUALLY HELP OFFSET THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. WENT WITH A BLEND OF
THE WARMER MET/COOLER MAVS. WE FEEL OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH AROUND FREEZING IN THE SOME OF COLDER SHELTERED
VALLEYS...OTHERWISE 35 TO 40 IN MOST PLACES.
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WITH A RIDGE ALOFT...A
BONAFIDE BERMUDA HIGH IN NOVEMBER. H850 TEMPERATURES COULD REACH
OVER +12C IN OUR REGION. THE MIXING LEVEL LOOKS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
SUNDAY. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO
SURFACE TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS...EXCEPT 55 TO
60 HIGHER TERRAIN. RIGHT NOW...THESE READINGS LOOK A LITTLE SHORT OF
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON NOVEMBER BUT IT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL.
ON MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THIS FRONT WOULD SERVE TO INCREASE CLOUDS AND A BREEZE. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO STAY QUITE MILD MONDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY DROPPING TO THE 45
TO 50 RANGE...EXCEPT CLOSER TO 40 IN OUR NORTHEAST AREAS WHICH WILL
BE BEHIND THE FRONT BY SUNRISE WITH H850 TEMPERATURES COOLING TO
ABOUT +6C.
BY TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES FROM ONE ANOTHER. THE 00Z/06ZS
NAM INDICATED THE COLD FRONT WOULD MOVE THROUGH WILL LITTLE
FANFARE...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WOULD BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH.
HOWEVER...THE OTHER MODELS DO NOT TOTALLY SUPPORT THIS DECISION. FOR
ONE THING...AN UNSEASONABLY LATE HURRICANE (IDA) LURKS OFF CENTRAL
AMERICA...AND BY THIS TIME...WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. TO FURTHER COMPLICATE MATTERS...A POTENT SHORT WAVE...COMING
OFF THE PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO BUCKLE THE SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM AND
FROM AN UPPER AIR LOW AT THE VERY LEAST SOMEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THE NAM IS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE BUT OF COURSE ONLY
GOES OUT 84 HOURS.
THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS BRINGS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IDA AND OR
THE UPPER LOW MUCH FURTHER NORTH AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
STALLS OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z EUROPEAN IS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE GFS SOLUTION. THE CANADIAN GEM LEANS MORE WITH THE NAM...KEEPING
MOST OF THE MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH.
THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAST THE UPPER AIR LOW WILL CUTOFF? IF IT
CUTS OFF FURTHER SOUTH...WHAT IS LEFT OF IDA (ALONG WITH ITS
MOISTURE) WILL NOT BE ABLE TO MOVE UP INTO OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL BY TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR
NOW...WILL ASSIGN A 50 POP AND LET IT GO AT THAT. BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS INDICATE IT WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW IN THE DACKS BY
LATE OVERNIGHT SHOULD PRECIPITATION TAKE PLACE.
GENERALLY WENT WITH A MAV/MET BLEND THROUGHOUT WITH SOME LOCAL
TWEAKING.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS AND THE LAST 12 HOURS...THE LONG TERM
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIR AND DRY AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES OVER THE REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE.
WILL BE DECREASING POPS AND PARTIALLY CLEARING THE SKY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
OFFSHORE LOW CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOVES TO THE EAST. AFTER
THAT...THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN RATHER
COOL WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE COOLEST
WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PCPN
WILL LINGER THE LONGEST. WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TEMPS THERE SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE BETWEEN 20 TO 30 AND THE HIGHS THURSDAY
IN THE 40S. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...A
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN AFTER THURSDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
25 TO 30...AND 30 TO 35 FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...AND THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ON SATURDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS RAPIDLY ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT FOR SATURDAY AS
THIS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH THE LOWEST POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK HAS NEARLY DISSIPATED AS OF 1130Z. HAVE
FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 12Z MONDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE KGFL
LATE TONIGHT WHEN MVFR/IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE DUE TO CALM WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES. OTHERWISE MAINLY P6SM SKC TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AT ALL
THREE TAF SITES.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH 5 TO 10 KTS INITIALLY AT KALB...THEN
SHIFT TO WEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS LATE THIS MORNING...THEN BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. AT KPOU EXPECT WINDS TO
BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. AT KGFL A
SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 KTS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST LATER THIS
MORNING...THEN CALM THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MON-MON NGT...VFR...NO WX.
TUE-WED...CHC -SHRA/-RA...CHC MVFR CIG/VSBY.
WED NITE-THU...VFR...NO WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
HOWEVER...BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE SOME CONCERN THAT SOME MOISTURE
FROM IDA COULD HEAD OUR WAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN
NORMAL...BUT SOME FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SOAKING RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER OTHER
SCENARIOS KEEP US MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE SAME TIME FRAME.
STAY TUNED FOR ANY UPDATES CONCERNING THIS UPCOMING SCENARIO.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
000
FXUS61 KBTV 081157
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
657 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WILL REMAIN
THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
MONDAY...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION CONTINUES
INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE IDA MOVES UP THE
ATLANTIC COAST. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 344 AM EST SUNDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS AROUND AS OF 3AM. PLENTY OF CLEARING NOTED THOUGH ON IR
SATELLITE UPSTREAM IN SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...WHICH SHOULD
SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. LOOKING FOR PARTY SUNNY
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING...BECOMING CLEAR BY THE
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED SOUTH/SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION TODAY...WITH MAX
TEMPS GENERALLY TOPPING OUT IN THE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 344 AM EST SUNDAY...DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE
SOME GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 20S ELSEWHERE. ON
MONDAY...850HPA TEMPS WARM TO +8-10C ACROSS THE REGION AND WITH
SUNNY SKIES FORECAST TO CONTINUE EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE
CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH MOST AREAS WARMING INTO THE
60S. NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS FEATURE WITH THE NAM BEING THE OUTLIER...THUS HAVE TRENDED
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST MORE TOWARDS THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION
WHICH FEATURES AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION ON TUESDAY. CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL START TO
FILTER IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MORE ON TUESDAY NIGHT BELOW...
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 344 AM EST SUNDAY...THE OVERALL PREDICTABILITY OF THE
PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE AT
THIS TIME. MAIN ISSUE IS WHETHER PHASING WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWRD ACROSS
GRTLKS TUESDAY NIGHT AND TROUGH MOVING ACROSS GULF STATES TUESDAY
WHICH WILL BECOME ASSOCD WITH HURRICANE IDA. PLENTY OF MODEL
DIFFERENCES RESULTING IN A VARIETY OF POSSIBLE OUTCOMES. FOR
NOW...HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH IS
FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE GFS. MAIN IMPACT FOR OUR FORECAST AREA GIVEN
THIS SOLUTION WOULD BE FROM TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GRTLKS
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MOISTURE ASSOCD WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM
REMAINING FURTHER SOUTH. EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT (ALTHOUGH IF ECMWF/GFS VERIFY...THESE POPS WOULD NEED TO BE
RAISED AS EVENT NEARS). AS COLDER AIR IN LLVLS IS DRAWN SOUTH INTO
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT ON INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW...EXPECT
RAIN TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SOME WET SNOW...MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. PHASING BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
SHRTWVS THEN OCCURS WEDNESDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THIS
WOULD OCCUR TOO FAR EAST FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON FORECAST
AREA. LINGERING PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD TAPER OFF.
DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE POISED TO
THE NORTH AND WEST WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THE HIGH THEN REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER
THROUGH FRIDAY. COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL IN ADVANCE OF
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR MVFR CIGS AT KSLK EARLY TODAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT BKN040-050
TILL ABOUT 14Z WITH TEMPO BKN020 AT KSLK...BECOMING SKC AT ALL
TAF SITES BY 15Z. WINDS WILL BE S-SW EARLY TODAY...BECOMING
WESTERLY AROUND 10 KTS LATER THIS MORNING...THEN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER 22Z.
OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR.
TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLE FRONTAL WAVE
WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM WEST TO EAST BRINGING A CHC
OF SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
A PERIOD OF IFR PSBL TUE NITE WHEN RAIN MAY MIX WITH/CHANGE TO SNOW.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS
000
FXUS61 KALY 081139
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
640 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTHEAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
PUMP MILD AIR OUR WAY THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM...AN AMAZING CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES THIS OVERNIGHT
VERSUS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IN MANY CASES...THEY ARE ABOUT 25
DEGREES WARMER DUE TO A BREEZE AND PATCHY CLOUDS. THE CLOUDS ARE DUE
TO A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR WHAT`S LEFT OF ONE) WORKING ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK STATE. NO PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLOUDS. THE FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT AND EVENTUALLY THE CLOUDS
WILL MOVE ON (ACCORDING TO IR SATELLITE PICTURES).
THE CLOUDS LOOK TO LEAVE AROUND SUNRISE. IF THEY DO...TEMPERATURES
COULD DROP A FEW POINTS...BUT WITH THE BREEZE...THEY WILL REMAIN
MUCH MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 40.
THE PASSAGE OF THE VERY WEAK FRONT WILL DO LITTLE TO COOL TEMPS. IN
FACT...H850 TEMPS MIGHT ACTUALLY A WARM A POINT OR SO TODAY TO ABOUT
+9C. FULL MIXING WOULD TRANSLATE TO TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S. WHILE
THAT WILL NOT HAPPEN...MIXING TO ABOUT THE 925MB WILL ALLOW
READINGS TO REACH BETWEEN 55 TO AROUND 60 IN MOST PLACES...AND AS
HIGH AS THE MID 60S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE VALUES ARE ABOUT
10 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL. A LIGHT TO WESTERLY BREEZE WILL
AVERAGE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BY TONIGHT...THE SKY WILL REMAIN CLEAR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUBBLE BUILDS RIGHT OVER TOP OF US. THIS WOULD NORMALLY LEAD TO
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONSIDERING THE LENGTH OF NIGHT (NOW
AROUND 10 HOURS). HOWEVER...H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING A
LITTLE MORE...HOVERING AROUND +10C. THIS MILD AIR ALOFT SHOULD
ACTUALLY HELP OFFSET THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. WENT WITH A BLEND OF
THE WARMER MET/COOLER MAVS. WE FEEL OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH AROUND FREEZING IN THE SOME OF COLDER SHELTERED
VALLEYS...OTHERWISE 35 TO 40 IN MOST PLACES.
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WITH A RIDGE ALOFT...A
BONAFIDE BERMUDA HIGH IN NOVEMBER. H850 TEMPERATURES COULD REACH
OVER +12C IN OUR REGION. THE MIXING LEVEL LOOKS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
SUNDAY. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO
SURFACE TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS...EXCEPT 55 TO
60 HIGHER TERRAIN. RIGHT NOW...THESE READINGS LOOK A LITTLE SHORT OF
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON NOVEMBER BUT IT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL.
ON MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THIS FRONT WOULD SERVE TO INCREASE CLOUDS AND A BREEZE. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO STAY QUITE MILD MONDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY DROPPING TO THE 45
TO 50 RANGE...EXCEPT CLOSER TO 40 IN OUR NORTHEAST AREAS WHICH WILL
BE BEHIND THE FRONT BY SUNRISE WITH H850 TEMPERATURES COOLING TO
ABOUT +6C.
BY TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES FROM ONE ANOTHER. THE 00Z/06ZS
NAM INDICATED THE COLD FRONT WOULD MOVE THROUGH WILL LITTLE
FANFARE...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WOULD BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH.
HOWEVER...THE OTHER MODELS DO NOT TOTALLY SUPPORT THIS DECISION. FOR
ONE THING...AN UNSEASONABLY LATE HURRICANE (IDA) LURKS OFF CENTRAL
AMERICA...AND BY THIS TIME...WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. TO FURTHER COMPLICATE MATTERS...A POTENT SHORT WAVE...COMING
OFF THE PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO BUCKLE THE SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM AND
FROM AN UPPER AIR LOW AT THE VERY LEAST SOMEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THE NAM IS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE BUT OF COURSE ONLY
GOES OUT 84 HOURS.
THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS BRINGS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IDA AND OR
THE UPPER LOW MUCH FURTHER NORTH AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
STALLS OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z EUROPEAN IS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE GFS SOLUTION. THE CANADIAN GEM LEANS MORE WITH THE NAM...KEEPING
MOST OF THE MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH.
THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAST THE UPPER AIR LOW WILL CUTOFF? IF IT
CUTS OFF FURTHER SOUTH...WHAT IS LEFT OF IDA (ALONG WITH ITS
MOISTURE) WILL NOT BE ABLE TO MOVE UP INTO OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL BY TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR
NOW...WILL ASSIGN A 50 POP AND LET IT GO AT THAT. BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS INDICATE IT WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW IN THE DACKS BY
LATE OVERNIGHT SHOULD PRECIPITATION TAKE PLACE.
GENERALLY WENT WITH A MAV/MET BLEND THROUGHOUT WITH SOME LOCAL
TWEAKING.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS AND THE LAST 12 HOURS...THE LONG TERM
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIR AND DRY AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES OVER THE REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE.
WILL BE DECREASING POPS AND PARTIALLY CLEARING THE SKY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
OFFSHORE LOW CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOVES TO THE EAST. AFTER
THAT...THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN RATHER
COOL WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE COOLEST
WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PCPN
WILL LINGER THE LONGEST. WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TEMPS THERE SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE BETWEEN 20 TO 30 AND THE HIGHS THURSDAY
IN THE 40S. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...A
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN AFTER THURSDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
25 TO 30...AND 30 TO 35 FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...AND THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ON SATURDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS RAPIDLY ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT FOR SATURDAY AS
THIS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH THE LOWEST POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK HAS NEARLY DISIPATED AS OF 1130Z. HAVE FORECAST
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AT 12Z MONDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE KGFL LATE
TONIGHT WHEN MVFR/IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE DUE TO CALM WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES. OTHERWISE MAINLY P6SM SKC TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AT ALL THREE
TAF SITES.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH 5 TO 10 KTS INITIALLY AT KALB...THEN
SHIFT TO WEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS LATE THIS MORNING...THEN BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. AT KPOU EXPECT WINDS TO
BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. AT KGFL A
SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 KTS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST LATER THIS
MORNING...THEN CALM THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MON-MON NGT...VFR...NO WX.
TUE-WED...CHC -SHRA/-RA...CHC MVFR CIG/VSBY.
WED NITE-THU...VFR...NO WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
HOWEVER...BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE SOME CONCERN THAT SOME MOISTURE
FROM IDA COULD HEAD OUR WAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN
NORMAL...BUT SOME FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SOAKING RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER OTHER
SCENARIOS KEEP US MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE SAME TIME FRAME.
STAY TUNED FOR ANY UPDATES CONCERNING THIS UPCOMING SCENARIO.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV
000
FXUS61 KALY 080913
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
413 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTHEAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
PUMP MILD AIR OUR WAY THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM...AN AMAZING CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES THIS OVERNIGHT
VERSUS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IN MANY CASES...THEY ARE ABOUT 25
DEGREES WARMER DUE TO A BREEZE AND PATCHY CLOUDS. THE CLOUDS ARE DUE
TO A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR WHAT`S LEFT OF ONE) WORKING ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK STATE. NO PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLOUDS. THE FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT AND EVENTUALLY THE CLOUDS
WILL MOVE ON (ACCORDING TO IR SATELLITE PICTURES).
THE CLOUDS LOOK TO LEAVE AROUND SUNRISE. IF THEY DO...TEMPERATURES
COULD DROP A FEW POINTS...BUT WITH THE BREEZE...THEY WILL REMAIN
MUCH MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 40.
THE PASSAGE OF THE VERY WEAK FRONT WILL DO LITTLE TO COOL TEMPS. IN
FACT...H850 TEMPS MIGHT ACTUALLY A WARM A POINT OR SO TODAY TO ABOUT
+9C. FULL MIXING WOULD TRANSLATE TO TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S. WHILE
THAT WILL NOT HAPPEN...MIXING TO ABOUT THE 925MB WILL ALLOW
READINGS TO REACH BETWEEN 55 TO AROUND 60 IN MOST PLACES...AND AS
HIGH AS THE MID 60S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE VALUES ARE ABOUT
10 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL. A LIGHT TO WESTERLY BREEZE WILL
AVERAGE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BY TONIGHT...THE SKY WILL REMAIN CLEAR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUBBLE BUILDS RIGHT OVER TOP OF US. THIS WOULD NORMALLY LEAD TO
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONSIDERING THE LENGTH OF NIGHT (NOW
AROUND 10 HOURS). HOWEVER...H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING A
LITTLE MORE...HOVERING AROUND +10C. THIS MILD AIR ALOFT SHOULD
ACTUALLY HELP OFFSET THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. WENT WITH A BLEND OF
THE WARMER MET/COOLER MAVS. WE FEEL OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH AROUND FREEZING IN THE SOME OF COLDER SHELTERED
VALLEYS...OTHERWISE 35 TO 40 IN MOST PLACES.
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WITH A RIDGE ALOFT...A
BONAFIDE BERMUDA HIGH IN NOVEMBER. H850 TEMPERATURES COULD REACH
OVER +12C IN OUR REGION. THE MIXING LEVEL LOOKS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
SUNDAY. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO
SURFACE TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS...EXCEPT 55 TO
60 HIGHER TERRAIN. RIGHT NOW...THESE READINGS LOOK A LITTLE SHORT OF
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON NOVEMBER BUT IT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL.
ON MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THIS FRONT WOULD SERVE TO INCREASE CLOUDS AND A BREEZE. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO STAY QUITE MILD MONDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY DROPPING TO THE 45
TO 50 RANGE...EXCEPT CLOSER TO 40 IN OUR NORTHEAST AREAS WHICH WILL
BE BEHIND THE FRONT BY SUNRISE WITH H850 TEMPERATURES COOLING TO
ABOUT +6C.
BY TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES FROM ONE ANOTHER. THE 00Z/06ZS
NAM INDICATED THE COLD FRONT WOULD MOVE THROUGH WILL LITTLE
FANFARE...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WOULD BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH.
HOWEVER...THE OTHER MODELS DO NOT TOTALLY SUPPORT THIS DECISION. FOR
ONE THING...AN UNSEASONABLY LATE HURRICANE (IDA) LURKS OFF CENTRAL
AMERICA...AND BY THIS TIME...WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. TO FURTHER COMPLICATE MATTERS...A POTENT SHORT WAVE...COMING
OFF THE PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO BUCKLE THE SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM AND
FROM AN UPPER AIR LOW AT THE VERY LEAST SOMEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THE NAM IS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE BUT OF COURSE ONLY
GOES OUT 84 HOURS.
THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS BRINGS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IDA AND OR
THE UPPER LOW MUCH FURTHER NORTH AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
STALLS OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z EUROPEAN IS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE GFS SOLUTION. THE CANADIAN GEM LEANS MORE WITH THE NAM...KEEPING
MOST OF THE MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH.
THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAST THE UPPER AIR LOW WILL CUTOFF? IF IT
CUTS OFF FURTHER SOUTH...WHAT IS LEFT OF IDA (ALONG WITH ITS
MOISTURE) WILL NOT BE ABLE TO MOVE UP INTO OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL BY TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR
NOW...WILL ASSIGN A 50 POP AND LET IT GO AT THAT. BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS INDICATE IT WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW IN THE DACKS BY
LATE OVERNIGHT SHOULD PRECIPITATION TAKE PLACE.
GENERALLY WENT WITH A MAV/MET BLEND THROUGHOUT WITH SOME LOCAL
TWEAKING.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS AND THE LAST 12 HOURS...THE LONG TERM
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIR AND DRY AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES OVER THE REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE.
WILL BE DECREASING POPS AND PARTIALLY CLEARING THE SKY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
OFFSHORE LOW CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOVES TO THE EAST. AFTER
THAT...THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN RATHER
COOL WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE COOLEST
WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PCPN
WILL LINGER THE LONGEST. WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TEMPS THERE SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE BETWEEN 20 TO 30 AND THE HIGHS THURSDAY
IN THE 40S. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...A
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN AFTER THURSDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
25 TO 30...AND 30 TO 35 FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...AND THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ON SATURDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS RAPIDLY ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT FOR SATURDAY AS
THIS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH THE LOWEST POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK. THIS CLOUD DECK SHOULD CLEAR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU
TAF SITES SOMETIME AROUND 14Z. THE CLOUD DECK AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL PREVENT ANY FOG FORMATION EARLY THIS MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z MONDAY. SURFACE WINDS FOR KALB WILL BE SOUTH
AT 10 TO 15 KTS INITIALLY...THEN TEND TO SUBSIDE TOWARD SUNRISE.
LATER IN THE MORNING THEY WILL SWITCH TO WEST AT UNDER 10 KTS...THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TOWARD SUNSET. AT KPOU EXPECT WINDS TO BE
CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. AT KGFL A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS WILL TEND TO BECOME LIGHT
TOWARD SUNRISE...THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY...AND CALM
TOWARD SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...
LATE SUN NGT-MON NGT...VFR...NO WX.
TUE-TUE NGT...-SHRA...CHC MVFR CIG/VSBY.
WED-THU...VFR...NO WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
HOWEVER...BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE SOME CONCERN THAT SOME MOISTURE
FROM IDA COULD HEAD OUR WAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN
NORMAL...BUT SOME FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SOAKING RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER OTHER
SCENARIOS KEEP US MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE SAME TIME FRAME.
STAY TUNED FOR ANY UPDATES CONCERNING THIS UPCOMING SCENARIO.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV
000
FXUS61 KBTV 080845
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WILL REMAIN
THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
MONDAY...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION CONTINUES
INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE IDA MOVES UP THE
ATLANTIC COAST. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 344 AM EST SUNDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS AROUND AS OF 3AM. PLENTY OF CLEARING NOTED THOUGH ON IR
SATELLITE UPSTREAM IN SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...WHICH SHOULD
SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. LOOKING FOR PARTY SUNNY
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING...BECOMING CLEAR BY THE
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED SOUTH/SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION TODAY...WITH MAX
TEMPS GENERALLY TOPPING OUT IN THE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 344 AM EST SUNDAY...DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE
SOME GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 20S ELSEWHERE. ON
MONDAY...850HPA TEMPS WARM TO +8-10C ACROSS THE REGION AND WITH
SUNNY SKIES FORECAST TO CONTINUE EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE
CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH MOST AREAS WARMING INTO THE
60S. NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS FEATURE WITH THE NAM BEING THE OUTLIER...THUS HAVE TRENDED
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST MORE TOWARDS THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION
WHICH FEATURES AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION ON TUESDAY. CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL START TO
FILTER IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MORE ON TUESDAY NIGHT BELOW...
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 344 AM EST SUNDAY...THE OVERALL PREDICTABILITY OF THE
PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE AT
THIS TIME. MAIN ISSUE IS WHETHER PHASING WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWRD ACROSS
GRTLKS TUESDAY NIGHT AND TROUGH MOVING ACROSS GULF STATES TUESDAY
WHICH WILL BECOME ASSOCD WITH HURRICANE IDA. PLENTY OF MODEL
DIFFERENCES RESULTING IN A VARIETY OF POSSIBLE OUTCOMES. FOR
NOW...HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH IS
FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE GFS. MAIN IMPACT FOR OUR FORECAST AREA GIVEN
THIS SOLUTION WOULD BE FROM TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GRTLKS
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MOISTURE ASSOCD WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM
REMAINING FURTHER SOUTH. EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT (ALTHOUGH IF ECMWF/GFS VERIFY...THESE POPS WOULD NEED TO BE
RAISED AS EVENT NEARS). AS COLDER AIR IN LLVLS IS DRAWN SOUTH INTO
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT ON INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW...EXPECT
RAIN TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SOME WET SNOW...MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. PHASING BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
SHRTWVS THEN OCCURS WEDNESDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THIS
WOULD OCCUR TOO FAR EAST FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON FORECAST
AREA. LINGERING PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD TAPER OFF.
DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE POISED TO
THE NORTH AND WEST WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THE HIGH THEN REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER
THROUGH FRIDAY. COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL IN ADVANCE OF
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT
BKN-OVC040-050 THRU 12Z. MUCH DRIER AIR THEN ARRIVES...WITH P6SM SKC
FOR REST OF THE PERIOD. THREAT OF LLWS DIMINISHING EARLY THIS
MORNING AS LLJ WEAKENS. HAVE KEPT IN A MENTION OF LLWS FOR
KRUT/KSLK THRU 10Z. SFC WINDS S TO SW GUSTING TO 25 KTS IN
CHMPLN/ST LWR VLYS EARLY THIS MORNING...SUBSIDING TOWARDS 12Z.
DURING SUNDAY...WINDS WESTERLY AROUND 10 KTS.
OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR.
TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLE FRONTAL WAVE
WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM WEST TO EAST BRINGING A CHC
OF RAIN AND WIDESPREAD MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT RAIN WILL TURN TO SNOW OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS
000
FXUS61 KBTV 080615
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
115 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER
ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON TUESDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 953 PM EST SATURDAY...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BEFORE BEGINNING TO
BREAK UP. THE CLOUDS ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
SIGNIFICANTLY AND WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT...THERE
SHOULD NOT BE MUCH AIR MASS CHANGE BEHIND WEAK FRONT GRAZING THE
AREA. THUS HAVE RAISED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES UPWARD A BIT OVERNIGHT
AND KEPT THE CLOUDS IN LONGER. WITH VERTICAL DEPTH OF MOISTURE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND WEAK FRONT/DYNAMIC SUPPORT REMAINING NORTH OF
THE BORDER...THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIMITED AND HAVE
REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EST SATURDAY...WK TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLD COVER CLRS
CWA BY SUNDAY MORNING...ALLOWING FOR WSW FLOW TO WORK INTO AREA.
THIS IN TURN PROVIDES ENTIRE CWA A GREAT DAY W/ ABV NORMAL TEMPS.
EXPECTING E VT WILL SEE LATE REBOUND IN TEMPS DURING MORNING HRS
AS SW FLOW WILL TAKE A WHILE TO WORK OVER GREEN MTNS...SO WILL
TREND TEMPS THERE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN REST OF THE CWA. WK
FRNTL BOUNDARY SETS UP JUST N OF THE CWA LATE SUNDAY NGT...W/ SFC
IMPULSE SETTING UP ALONG IT GOING INTO MON NGT. NO PRECIP LOOKING
TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE CWA AS SYSTEM GRAZES ONLY N BORDER ZONES.
KEEP POPS TO SL CHANCE THERE W/ DRIER AIR OVER REST OF NORTH
COUNTRY IN PLACE GOING INTO EVENING HRS MONDAY. GRADIENT DOES
TIGHTEN UP AHEAD OF FRNTL BOUNDARY AND DO EXPECT GUSTS TO INCR
ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. GONE ABV NORMAL TEMPS FOR MONDAY AS 850
TEMPS OF +8C TO +10C WILL TRANSLATE INTO 60S FOR CWA.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 328 PM EST SATURDAY...
THE OVERALL PREDICTABILITY OF THE PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED FCST
PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE AT THE PRESENT TIME. MAIN ISSUE IS WHETHER
OR NOT 700-500MB TROUGH PHASING WILL OCCUR DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING
ONSHORE ACROSS THE NRN CA/ORE COASTLINE...AND THE UPR LOW OVER NWRN
MEXICO AND TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE WRN CARIBBEAN SEA. THERE EXITS
AN INTERESTING DICHOTOMY OF SOLNS BETWEEN THE SLOWER AND PHASED
06/12Z GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS SHOWING A DEEP SFC CYCLONE...AND THE
MAJORITY OF THE 12Z GFS MEMBERS AND OPERATIONAL ECMWF WHICH SHOW A
WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE UPR TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT ANY SFC
CYCLOGENESIS WELL EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. WHILE WE ARE NOT OUT OF THE
WOODS YET CONCERNING A POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT RAIN TO WET SNOW
SITUATION FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING /ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN NY AND THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF VT/...WE FEEL IT/S PRUDENT AT THE CURRENT TIME
TO FAVOR THE MAJORITY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND 12Z ECMWF.
WITH THAT BACKGROUND...FAVORED EVOLUTION OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES
INCLUDES A SEWD SAGGING SFC COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DURING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST POPS...AROUND 60 PERCENT...ARE ALONG THE INTL
BORDER AS SFC COLD FRONT SHIFTS GRADUALLY SEWD ACROSS NRN NY AND FAR
NRN NY. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE...GENERALLY IN THE
MID TO UPR 50S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...EXCEPT LOW 50S FOR THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH EARLIER ARRIVAL OF FRONTAL ZONE AND
PRECIPITATION.
DURING TUESDAY NIGHT...FRONTAL ZONE CONTINUES TO SHIFT SEWD ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND WITH LOW-LEVEL CAA INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE EXISTS THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SFC CYCLOGENESIS
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...BUT THE FAVORED...PROGRESSIVE SOLN WOULD HAVE
DECREASING CHANCES FOR PCPN AS BEST DYNAMICS SHIFT EAST OF THE
REGIONS AND LOW-LEVEL DRYING OCCURS. HAVE INDICATED A CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS...MIXING WITH SNOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER ELEVATION HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK GENERALLY FAIR ATTM...WITH A RIDGE OF SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TRANSLATING EWD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE MID/UPR 40S.
NEXT APPROACHING SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NGT AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT
BKN-OVC040-050 THRU 12Z. MUCH DRIER AIR THEN ARRIVES...WITH P6SM SKC
FOR REST OF THE PERIOD. THREAT OF LLWS DIMINISHING EARLY THIS
MORNING AS LLJ WEAKENS. HAVE KEPT IN A MENTION OF LLWS FOR
KRUT/KSLK THRU 10Z. SFC WINDS S TO SW GUSTING TO 25 KTS IN
CHMPLN/ST LWR VLYS EARLY THIS MORNING...SUBSIDING TOWARDS 12Z.
DURING SUNDAY...WINDS WESTERLY AROUND 10 KTS.
OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR.
TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLE FRONTAL WAVE
WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM WEST TO EAST BRINGING A CHC
OF RAIN AND WIDESPREAD MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT RAIN WILL TURN TO SNOW OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...RJS
000
FXUS61 KALY 080546
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1245 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING MILDER AIR OUR WAY BY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 830 PM EST...CLOUDS ARE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING/INCREASING ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS...AND HEADING S/E. THE RUC13 850 RH SEEMS TO DEPICT
THIS BEST...ALTHOUGH EVEN THIS APPEARS A TAD SLOW. THESE CLOUDS
APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING/INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF WARM
FRONT...APPROACHING FROM THE W. WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO REMAIN PREVALENT
OVERNIGHT FOR AREAS N/W OF ALBANY...WITH JUST OCCASIONAL BREAKS
POSSIBLE. FURTHER S AND E...OCCASIONAL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP...BUT
MORE BREAKS WILL ALSO OCCUR. THUS...HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPS BY SEVERAL
DEGREES IN MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...WITH GREATEST ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR
N/W AREAS...AND WITHIN THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WHERE WIND
WILL ALSO REMAIN JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST TEMPS FROM FALLING
MUCH BELOW 40.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
UPPER SYSTEM TRACKING JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AS UPPER AND LOW LEVEL RIDGING REINFORCES
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM...AND A LIGHT SOUTH WIND...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND ANY VALLEYS THAT CHANNEL WINDS. THIS MAKES FOR
SOME STRANGE ISSUES AS FAR AS POTENTIAL LOCAL EFFECTS AND LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES
IN LOW TEMPERATURES IN SHORT DISTANCES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT
EVEN MORE SO TOMORROW NIGHT...BUT THAT WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE
NEXT SECTION.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A BROKEN CLOUD DECK LATER TONIGHT AND AROUND
SUNRISE...WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE FALLS IN SOME AREAS
OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 30S...AROUND 40 IN WARMER
SPOTS...AROUND 30 IN COLDER SPOTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM. SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY MONDAY. THE RELATIVE
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN LIMITED CLOUD COVER...SO EVEN
WITH THE RAPIDLY LOWERING SUN ANGLE...SOME MIXING SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AROUND 60 TO LOWER 60S TOMORROW...AND LOWER
TO UPPER 60S MONDAY.
AS FAR AS LOW TEMPERATURES...SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL DEPEND AGAIN
ON WHAT LOCATIONS EXPERIENCE A LIGHT SOUTH WIND...AND WHAT
LOCATIONS GO CALM. THERE COULD BE 10+ DEGREE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
LOCATIONS THAT SEE CALM WINDS AND THOSE THAT SEE SOUTH WINDS AT
2-5 MPH...SO AROUND FREEZING IN AREAS THAT GO CALM...AND LOW TO
MID 40S IN AREAS THAT SEE LIGHT SOUTH WINDS MOST OF THE NIGHT.
THERE COULD BE SOME THICKENING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
THAT MAY PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALL AS MUCH AS THEY COULD.
MONDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND STEADY LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS IN THE 40S FOR LOWS.
QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE AS TO THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF A SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WITH FASTER
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SLOWER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONTINUED PREFRONTAL WARM
SECTOR THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...SUGGESTING
GRADUAL WIND SHIFT AND SLOWER COOLING...BUT STILL...WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...HIGHS AROUND 60...50S IN
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS.
MODELS NOT RESOLVING UPSTREAM FEATURES SUCH AS PACIFIC JET
ENERGY...AND IDA APPROACHING GULF OF MEXICO...SO ANY ISSUES FROM
TUESDAY AND BEYOND WILL NOT BE RESOLVED UNTIL FEATURES ENTER
DENSER DATA NETWORK. MORE INFO IN LONG RANGE SECTION.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST OF THE ATTENTION WILL BE ON THE TROPICS WITH IDA WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO
SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS WAS DISCOUNTED DURING THE LONG TERM SINCE ITS RELATED ENSEMBLE
DATA DOES NOT SUPPORT ITS OPERATIONAL MEMBERS INCLUDING
INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET. THE
REMNANTS OF IDA SHOULD REMAIN FAR REMOVED FROM THE LOCAL AREA AND
WILL FOLLOW A DRIER SOLUTION HEADING INTO THIS LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST.
WITH THAT SAID...SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER PLAINS
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC BY MID WEEK AND A NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FROPA.
TRENDS AND ENSEMBLE DATA SUGGEST SUBTROPICAL UPPER HIGH/RIDGE
DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BY WEEKS END WHICH WILL AID IN THE
WARM TRANSPORT FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION MAY ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MONRING WITH A MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK. THIS CLOUD DECK SHOULD CLEAR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU
TAF SITES SOMETIME AROUND 14Z. THE CLOUD DECK AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL PREVENT ANY FOG FORMATION EARLY THIS MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z MONDAY. SURFACE WINDS FOR KALB WILL BE SOUTH
AT 10 TO 15 KTS INITIALLY...THEN TEND TO SUBSIDE TOWARD SUNRISE.
LATER IN THE MORNING THEY WILL SWITCH TO WEST AT UNDER 10 KTS...TEHN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TOWARD SUNSET. AT KPOU EXPECT WINDS TO BE
CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. AT KGFL A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS WILL TEND TO BECOME LIGHT
TOWARD SUNRISE...THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY...AND CALM
TOWARD SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...
LATE SUN NGT-MON NGT...VFR...NO WX.
TUE-TUE NGT...-SHRA...CHC MVFR CIG/VSBY.
WED-THU...VFR...NO WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...BGM/NAS
000
FXUS61 KBTV 080253
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
953 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER
ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON TUESDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 953 PM EST SATURDAY...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BEFORE BEGINNING TO
BREAK UP. THE CLOUDS ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
SIGNIFICANTLY AND WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT...THERE
SHOULD NOT BE MUCH AIR MASS CHANGE BEHIND WEAK FRONT GRAZING THE
AREA. THUS HAVE RAISED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES UPWARD A BIT OVERNIGHT
AND KEPT THE CLOUDS IN LONGER. WITH VERTICAL DEPTH OF MOISTURE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND WEAK FRONT/DYNAMIC SUPPORT REMAINING NORTH OF
THE BORDER...THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIMITED AND HAVE
REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EST SATURDAY...WK TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLD COVER CLRS
CWA BY SUNDAY MORNING...ALLOWING FOR WSW FLOW TO WORK INTO AREA.
THIS IN TURN PROVIDES ENTIRE CWA A GREAT DAY W/ ABV NORMAL TEMPS.
EXPECTING E VT WILL SEE LATE REBOUND IN TEMPS DURING MORNING HRS
AS SW FLOW WILL TAKE A WHILE TO WORK OVER GREEN MTNS...SO WILL
TREND TEMPS THERE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN REST OF THE CWA. WK
FRNTL BOUNDARY SETS UP JUST N OF THE CWA LATE SUNDAY NGT...W/ SFC
IMPULSE SETTING UP ALONG IT GOING INTO MON NGT. NO PRECIP LOOKING
TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE CWA AS SYSTEM GRAZES ONLY N BORDER ZONES.
KEEP POPS TO SL CHANCE THERE W/ DRIER AIR OVER REST OF NORTH
COUNTRY IN PLACE GOING INTO EVENING HRS MONDAY. GRADIENT DOES
TIGHTEN UP AHEAD OF FRNTL BOUNDARY AND DO EXPECT GUSTS TO INCR
ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. GONE ABV NORMAL TEMPS FOR MONDAY AS 850
TEMPS OF +8C TO +10C WILL TRANSLATE INTO 60S FOR CWA.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 328 PM EST SATURDAY...
THE OVERALL PREDICTABILITY OF THE PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED FCST
PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE AT THE PRESENT TIME. MAIN ISSUE IS WHETHER
OR NOT 700-500MB TROUGH PHASING WILL OCCUR DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING
ONSHORE ACROSS THE NRN CA/ORE COASTLINE...AND THE UPR LOW OVER NWRN
MEXICO AND TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE WRN CARIBBEAN SEA. THERE EXITS
AN INTERESTING DICHOTOMY OF SOLNS BETWEEN THE SLOWER AND PHASED
06/12Z GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS SHOWING A DEEP SFC CYCLONE...AND THE
MAJORITY OF THE 12Z GFS MEMBERS AND OPERATIONAL ECMWF WHICH SHOW A
WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE UPR TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT ANY SFC
CYCLOGENESIS WELL EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. WHILE WE ARE NOT OUT OF THE
WOODS YET CONCERNING A POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT RAIN TO WET SNOW
SITUATION FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING /ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN NY AND THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF VT/...WE FEEL IT/S PRUDENT AT THE CURRENT TIME
TO FAVOR THE MAJORITY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND 12Z ECMWF.
WITH THAT BACKGROUND...FAVORED EVOLUTION OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES
INCLUDES A SEWD SAGGING SFC COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DURING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST POPS...AROUND 60 PERCENT...ARE ALONG THE INTL
BORDER AS SFC COLD FRONT SHIFTS GRADUALLY SEWD ACROSS NRN NY AND FAR
NRN NY. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE...GENERALLY IN THE
MID TO UPR 50S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...EXCEPT LOW 50S FOR THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH EARLIER ARRIVAL OF FRONTAL ZONE AND
PRECIPITATION.
DURING TUESDAY NIGHT...FRONTAL ZONE CONTINUES TO SHIFT SEWD ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND WITH LOW-LEVEL CAA INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE EXISTS THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SFC CYCLOGENESIS
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...BUT THE FAVORED...PROGRESSIVE SOLN WOULD HAVE
DECREASING CHANCES FOR PCPN AS BEST DYNAMICS SHIFT EAST OF THE
REGIONS AND LOW-LEVEL DRYING OCCURS. HAVE INDICATED A CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS...MIXING WITH SNOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER ELEVATION HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK GENERALLY FAIR ATTM...WITH A RIDGE OF SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TRANSLATING EWD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE MID/UPR 40S.
NEXT APPROACHING SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NGT AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR CIGS AND VIS THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRIMARY
CONCERN TONIGHT IS LLWS AT ALL TAF SITES. SFC WINDS CONTINUE TO
BE GUSTY IN THE CPV WITH KBTV S WINDS APPROX 10G22KT...BUT HAVE
DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 10KT ELSEWHERE. WINDS BETWEEN 1500-2000FT
ARE BETWEEN 35-45KT FROM THE SSW. THESE WINDS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH AFTER 08Z AS THEY VEER TO THE WEST. PASSAGE OF A SFC
TROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 14Z SUNDAY WILL RESULT A FURTHER
MORE OF A WESTERLY WIND SHIFT TOWARD MORNING AND EVEN NW TOWARD AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR.
TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLE FRONTAL WAVE
WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM WEST TO EAST BRINGING
POSSIBLE RAIN AND WIDESPREAD MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS LATE
TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT RAIN WILL TURN TO
SNOW ACROSS NRN NY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ANY SHOWERS END
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING
FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS/AMF
000
FXUS61 KALY 080134
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
834 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING MILDER AIR OUR WAY BY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 830 PM EST...CLOUDS ARE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING/INCREASING ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS...AND HEADING S/E. THE RUC13 850 RH SEEMS TO DEPICT
THIS BEST...ALTHOUGH EVEN THIS APPEARS A TAD SLOW. THESE CLOUDS
APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING/INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF WARM
FRONT...APPROACHING FROM THE W. WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO REMAIN PREVALENT
OVERNIGHT FOR AREAS N/W OF ALBANY...WITH JUST OCCASIONAL BREAKS
POSSIBLE. FURTHER S AND E...OCCASIONAL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP...BUT
MORE BREAKS WILL ALSO OCCUR. THUS...HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPS BY SEVERAL
DEGREES IN MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...WITH GREATEST ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR
N/W AREAS...AND WITHIN THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WHERE WIND
WILL ALSO REMAIN JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST TEMPS FROM FALLING
MUCH BELOW 40.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
UPPER SYSTEM TRACKING JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AS UPPER AND LOW LEVEL RIDGING REINFORCES
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM...AND A LIGHT SOUTH WIND...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND ANY VALLEYS THAT CHANNEL WINDS. THIS MAKES FOR
SOME STRANGE ISSUES AS FAR AS POTENTIAL LOCAL EFFECTS AND LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES
IN LOW TEMPERATURES IN SHORT DISTANCES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT
EVEN MORE SO TOMORROW NIGHT...BUT THAT WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE
NEXT SECTION.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A BROKEN CLOUD DECK LATER TONIGHT AND AROUND
SUNRISE...WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE FALLS IN SOME AREAS
OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 30S...AROUND 40 IN WARMER
SPOTS...AROUND 30 IN COLDER SPOTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM. SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY MONDAY. THE RELATIVE
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN LIMITED CLOUD COVER...SO EVEN
WITH THE RAPIDLY LOWERING SUN ANGLE...SOME MIXING SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AROUND 60 TO LOWER 60S TOMORROW...AND LOWER
TO UPPER 60S MONDAY.
AS FAR AS LOW TEMPERATURES...SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL DEPEND AGAIN
ON WHAT LOCATIONS EXPERIENCE A LIGHT SOUTH WIND...AND WHAT
LOCATIONS GO CALM. THERE COULD BE 10+ DEGREE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
LOCATIONS THAT SEE CALM WINDS AND THOSE THAT SEE SOUTH WINDS AT
2-5 MPH...SO AROUND FREEZING IN AREAS THAT GO CALM...AND LOW TO
MID 40S IN AREAS THAT SEE LIGHT SOUTH WINDS MOST OF THE NIGHT.
THERE COULD BE SOME THICKENING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
THAT MAY PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALL AS MUCH AS THEY COULD.
MONDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND STEADY LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS IN THE 40S FOR LOWS.
QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE AS TO THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF A SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WITH FASTER
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SLOWER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONTINUED PREFRONTAL WARM
SECTOR THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...SUGGESTING
GRADUAL WIND SHIFT AND SLOWER COOLING...BUT STILL...WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...HIGHS AROUND 60...50S IN
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS.
MODELS NOT RESOLVING UPSTREAM FEATURES SUCH AS PACIFIC JET
ENERGY...AND IDA APPROACHING GULF OF MEXICO...SO ANY ISSUES FROM
TUESDAY AND BEYOND WILL NOT BE RESOLVED UNTIL FEATURES ENTER
DENSER DATA NETWORK. MORE INFO IN LONG RANGE SECTION.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST OF THE ATTENTION WILL BE ON THE TROPICS WITH IDA WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO
SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS WAS DISCOUNTED DURING THE LONG TERM SINCE ITS RELATED ENSEMBLE
DATA DOES NOT SUPPORT ITS OPERATIONAL MEMBERS INCLUDING
INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET. THE
REMNANTS OF IDA SHOULD REMAIN FAR REMOVED FROM THE LOCAL AREA AND
WILL FOLLOW A DRIER SOLUTION HEADING INTO THIS LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST.
WITH THAT SAID...SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER PLAINS
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC BY MID WEEK AND A NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FROPA.
TRENDS AND ENSEMBLE DATA SUGGEST SUBTROPICAL UPPER HIGH/RIDGE
DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BY WEEKS END WHICH WILL AID IN THE
WARM TRANSPORT FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION MAY ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH
MONDAY...AS IT GRADUALLY SLIDES EAST OFF THE MID MID ATLANTIC COAST.
KGFL...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z/MON. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME IFR VSBYS AROUND SUNRISE...DEPENDING ON IF VFR
LEVEL CLOUDS CAN CLEAR OUT. WINDS AT KGFL SHOULD REMAIN FROM A LIGHT
SE TO S DIRECTION OVERNIGHT AT LESS THAN 8 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME SW
TO W SUN MORNING AT 5-10 KT...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING...AND
PERSIST UNTIL EARLY SUN MORNING AS SFC WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...WHILE
WINDS AT AND ABOVE 2000 FT AGL INCREASE FROM THE SW TO 35-40 KT.
KALB...EXPECT VFR THROUGH 00Z/MON. WINDS AT KALB WILL REMAIN FROM
THE S AT 8-12 KT THIS EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO LESS THAN
8 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST SUN MORNING AT 8-12 KT...DIMINISHING AND BACKING INTO THE
SW TO S BY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THIS
EVENING...PERSISTING UNTIL EARLY SUN MORNING AS SFC WINDS DECREASE
TO LESS THAN 8 KT...WHILE WINDS AT AND ABOVE 2000 FT AGL INCREASE
FROM THE SW TO 35-40 KT.
AT KPOU...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z/MON...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC FOR BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE.
WINDS AT KPOU WILL REMAIN FROM THE S AND DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 5 KT
OVERNIGHT...THEN WIL BECOME W TO NW AT 8-12 KT SUN MORNING. WINDS
WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY SUN AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING...AND PERSIST UNTIL EARLY SUN
MORNING AS SFC WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...WHILE WINDS AT AND ABOVE 2000 FT
AGL INCREASE FROM THE SW TO 35-40 KT.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NGT-MON NGT...VFR...NO WX.
TUE-TUE NGT...-SHRA...CHC MVFR CIG/VSBY.
WED-THU...VFR...NO WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...KL/ELH
HYDROLOGY...BGM/NAS
000
FXUS61 KALY 072355
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
655 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING MILDER AIR OUR WAY BY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UPPER SYSTEM TRACKING JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AS UPPER AND LOW LEVEL RIDGING REINFORCES
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM...AND A LIGHT SOUTH WIND...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND ANY VALLEYS THAT CHANNEL WINDS. THIS MAKES FOR
SOME STRANGE ISSUES AS FAR AS POTENTIAL LOCAL EFFECTS AND LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES
IN LOW TEMPERATURES IN SHORT DISTANCES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT
EVEN MORE SO TOMORROW NIGHT...BUT THAT WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE
NEXT SECTION.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A BROKEN CLOUD DECK LATER TONIGHT AND AROUND
SUNRISE...WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE FALLS IN SOME AREAS
OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 30S...AROUND 40 IN WARMER
SPOTS...AROUND 30 IN COLDER SPOTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM. SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY MONDAY. THE RELATIVE
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN LIMITED CLOUD COVER...SO EVEN
WITH THE RAPIDLY LOWERING SUN ANGLE...SOME MIXING SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AROUND 60 TO LOWER 60S TOMORROW...AND LOWER
TO UPPER 60S MONDAY.
AS FAR AS LOW TEMPERATURES...SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL DEPEND AGAIN
ON WHAT LOCATIONS EXPERIENCE A LIGHT SOUTH WIND...AND WHAT
LOCATIONS GO CALM. THERE COULD BE 10+ DEGREE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
LOCATIONS THAT SEE CALM WINDS AND THOSE THAT SEE SOUTH WINDS AT
2-5 MPH...SO AROUND FREEZING IN AREAS THAT GO CALM...AND LOW TO
MID 40S IN AREAS THAT SEE LIGHT SOUTH WINDS MOST OF THE NIGHT.
THERE COULD BE SOME THICKENING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
THAT MAY PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALL AS MUCH AS THEY COULD.
MONDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND STEADY LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS IN THE 40S FOR LOWS.
QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE AS TO THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF A SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WITH FASTER
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SLOWER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONTINUED PREFRONTAL WARM
SECTOR THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...SUGGESTING
GRADUAL WIND SHIFT AND SLOWER COOLING...BUT STILL...WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...HIGHS AROUND 60...50S IN
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS.
MODELS NOT RESOLVING UPSTREAM FEATURES SUCH AS PACIFIC JET
ENERGY...AND IDA APPROACHING GULF OF MEXICO...SO ANY ISSUES FROM
TUESDAY AND BEYOND WILL NOT BE RESOLVED UNTIL FEATURES ENTER
DENSER DATA NETWORK. MORE INFO IN LONG RANGE SECTION.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST OF THE ATTENTION WILL BE ON THE TROPICS WITH IDA WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO
SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS WAS DISCOUNTED DURING THE LONG TERM SINCE ITS RELATED ENSEMBLE
DATA DOES NOT SUPPORT ITS OPERATIONAL MEMBERS INCLUDING
INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET. THE
REMNANTS OF IDA SHOULD REMAIN FAR REMOVED FROM THE LOCAL AREA AND
WILL FOLLOW A DRIER SOLUTION HEADING INTO THIS LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST.
WITH THAT SAID...SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER PLAINS
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC BY MID WEEK AND A NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FROPA.
TRENDS AND ENSEMBLE DATA SUGGEST SUBTROPICAL UPPER HIGH/RIDGE
DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BY WEEKS END WHICH WILL AID IN THE
WARM TRANSPORT FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION MAY ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH
MONDAY...AS IT GRADUALLY SLIDES EAST OFF THE MID MID ATLANTIC COAST.
KGFL...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z/MON. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME IFR VSBYS AROUND SUNRISE...DEPENDING ON IF VFR
LEVEL CLOUDS CAN CLEAR OUT. WINDS AT KGFL SHOULD REMAIN FROM A LIGHT
SE TO S DIRECTION OVERNIGHT AT LESS THAN 8 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME SW
TO W SUN MORNING AT 5-10 KT...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING...AND
PERSIST UNTIL EARLY SUN MORNING AS SFC WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...WHILE
WINDS AT AND ABOVE 2000 FT AGL INCREASE FROM THE SW TO 35-40 KT.
KALB...EXPECT VFR THROUGH 00Z/MON. WINDS AT KALB WILL REMAIN FROM
THE S AT 8-12 KT THIS EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO LESS THAN
8 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST SUN MORNING AT 8-12 KT...DIMINISHING AND BACKING INTO THE
SW TO S BY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THIS
EVENING...PERSISTING UNTIL EARLY SUN MORNING AS SFC WINDS DECREASE
TO LESS THAN 8 KT...WHILE WINDS AT AND ABOVE 2000 FT AGL INCREASE
FROM THE SW TO 35-40 KT.
AT KPOU...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z/MON...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC FOR BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE.
WINDS AT KPOU WILL REMAIN FROM THE S AND DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 5 KT
OVERNIGHT...THEN WIL BECOME W TO NW AT 8-12 KT SUN MORNING. WINDS
WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY SUN AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING...AND PERSIST UNTIL EARLY SUN
MORNING AS SFC WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...WHILE WINDS AT AND ABOVE 2000 FT
AGL INCREASE FROM THE SW TO 35-40 KT.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NGT-MON NGT...VFR...NO WX.
TUE-TUE NGT...-SHRA...CHC MVFR CIG/VSBY.
WED-THU...VFR...NO WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...KL/ELH
HYDROLOGY...BGM/NAS
000
FXUS61 KBTV 072352
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
652 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE
AREA INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK FRONT WILL GRAZE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER FOR MAINLY
TUESDAY THAT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 339 PM EST SATURDAY...CLDS THAT SLOWLY PUSHED THRU THE CWA
THIS MORNING HAVE ALMOST CLRD THE REGION...WITH BACK EDGE WORKING
INTO THE CT RIVER VALLEY/E VT. THIS IN TURN WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH A FEW HRS OF DAYLIGHT/CLRING GOING INTO EVENING HRS
BFR WK FRNTL BOUNDARY MVS OUT OF GREAT LKS REGION. BULK OF SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN N OF THE BORDER AS IT MVS E OVERNGT. CONTINUED TO GO
W/ MIX OF GFS/NAM WHICH BRING SL CHANCE OF A SHOWER/SPRINKLE
MAINLY TO HIR ELEV. GONE ABV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS OVERNGT AS SSW
WINDS WILL REMAIN INTACT FOR MOST OF NITE AND THEN SHIFT TO MORE
WSW AS SYSTEM PASSES. AS A RESULT NOT MUCH CHANGE IN AIRMASS DUE
TO LACK OF CAA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EST SATURDAY...WK TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLD COVER CLRS
CWA BY SUNDAY MORNING...ALLOWING FOR WSW FLOW TO WORK INTO AREA.
THIS IN TURN PROVIDES ENTIRE CWA A GREAT DAY W/ ABV NORMAL TEMPS.
EXPECTING E VT WILL SEE LATE REBOUND IN TEMPS DURING MORNING HRS
AS SW FLOW WILL TAKE A WHILE TO WORK OVER GREEN MTNS...SO WILL
TREND TEMPS THERE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN REST OF THE CWA. WK
FRNTL BOUNDARY SETS UP JUST N OF THE CWA LATE SUNDAY NGT...W/ SFC
IMPULSE SETTING UP ALONG IT GOING INTO MON NGT. NO PRECIP LOOKING
TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE CWA AS SYSTEM GRAZES ONLY N BORDER ZONES.
KEEP POPS TO SL CHANCE THERE W/ DRIER AIR OVER REST OF NORTH
COUNTRY IN PLACE GOING INTO EVENING HRS MONDAY. GRADIENT DOES
TIGHTEN UP AHEAD OF FRNTL BOUNDARY AND DO EXPECT GUSTS TO INCR
ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. GONE ABV NORMAL TEMPS FOR MONDAY AS 850
TEMPS OF +8C TO +10C WILL TRANSLATE INTO 60S FOR CWA.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 328 PM EST SATURDAY...
THE OVERALL PREDICTABILITY OF THE PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED FCST
PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE AT THE PRESENT TIME. MAIN ISSUE IS WHETHER
OR NOT 700-500MB TROUGH PHASING WILL OCCUR DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING
ONSHORE ACROSS THE NRN CA/ORE COASTLINE...AND THE UPR LOW OVER NWRN
MEXICO AND TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE WRN CARIBBEAN SEA. THERE EXITS
AN INTERESTING DICHOTOMY OF SOLNS BETWEEN THE SLOWER AND PHASED
06/12Z GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS SHOWING A DEEP SFC CYCLONE...AND THE
MAJORITY OF THE 12Z GFS MEMBERS AND OPERATIONAL ECMWF WHICH SHOW A
WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE UPR TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT ANY SFC
CYCLOGENESIS WELL EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. WHILE WE ARE NOT OUT OF THE
WOODS YET CONCERNING A POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT RAIN TO WET SNOW
SITUATION FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING /ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN NY AND THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF VT/...WE FEEL IT/S PRUDENT AT THE CURRENT TIME
TO FAVOR THE MAJORITY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND 12Z ECMWF.
WITH THAT BACKGROUND...FAVORED EVOLUTION OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES
INCLUDES A SEWD SAGGING SFC COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DURING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST POPS...AROUND 60 PERCENT...ARE ALONG THE INTL
BORDER AS SFC COLD FRONT SHIFTS GRADUALLY SEWD ACROSS NRN NY AND FAR
NRN NY. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE...GENERALLY IN THE
MID TO UPR 50S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...EXCEPT LOW 50S FOR THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH EARLIER ARRIVAL OF FRONTAL ZONE AND
PRECIPITATION.
DURING TUESDAY NIGHT...FRONTAL ZONE CONTINUES TO SHIFT SEWD ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND WITH LOW-LEVEL CAA INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE EXISTS THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SFC CYCLOGENESIS
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...BUT THE FAVORED...PROGRESSIVE SOLN WOULD HAVE
DECREASING CHANCES FOR PCPN AS BEST DYNAMICS SHIFT EAST OF THE
REGIONS AND LOW-LEVEL DRYING OCCURS. HAVE INDICATED A CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS...MIXING WITH SNOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER ELEVATION HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK GENERALLY FAIR ATTM...WITH A RIDGE OF SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TRANSLATING EWD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE MID/UPR 40S.
NEXT APPROACHING SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NGT AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR CIGS AND VIS THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRIMARY
CONCERN TONIGHT IS LLWS AT ALL TAF SITES. SFC WINDS CONTINUE TO
BE GUSTY IN THE CPV WITH KBTV S WINDS APPROX 10G22KT...BUT HAVE
DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 10KT ELSEWHERE. WINDS BETWEEN 1500-2000FT
ARE BETWEEN 35-45KT FROM THE SSW. THESE WINDS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH AFTER 08Z AS THEY VEER TO THE WEST. PASSAGE OF A SFC
TROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 14Z SUNDAY WILL RESULT A FURTHER
MORE OF A WESTERLY WIND SHIFT TOWARD MORNING AND EVEN NW TOWARD AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR.
TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLE FRONTAL WAVE
WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM WEST TO EAST BRINGING
POSSIBLE RAIN AND WIDESPREAD MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS LATE
TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT RAIN WILL TURN TO
SNOW ACROSS NRN NY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ANY SHOWERS END
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING
FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS/AMF
000
FXUS61 KALY 072038
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
338 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING MILDER AIR OUR WAY BY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UPPER SYSTEM TRACKING JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AS UPPER AND LOW LEVEL RIDGING REINFORCES
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM...AND A LIGHT SOUTH WIND...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND ANY VALLEYS THAT CHANNEL WINDS. THIS MAKES FOR
SOME STRANGE ISSUES AS FAR AS POTENTIAL LOCAL EFFECTS AND LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES
IN LOW TEMPERATURES IN SHORT DISTANCES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT
EVEN MORE SO TOMORROW NIGHT...BUT THAT WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE
NEXT SECTION.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A BROKEN CLOUD DECK LATER TONIGHT AND AROUND
SUNRISE...WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE FALLS IN SOME AREAS
OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 30S...AROUND 40 IN WARMER
SPOTS...AROUND 30 IN COLDER SPOTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM. SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY MONDAY. THE RELATIVE
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN LIMITED CLOUD COVER...SO EVEN
WITH THE RAPIDLY LOWERING SUN ANGLE...SOME MIXING SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AROUND 60 TO LOWER 60S TOMORROW...AND LOWER
TO UPPER 60S MONDAY.
AS FAR AS LOW TEMPERATURES...SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL DEPEND AGAIN
ON WHAT LOCATIONS EXPERIENCE A LIGHT SOUTH WIND...AND WHAT
LOCATIONS GO CALM. THERE COULD BE 10+ DEGREE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
LOCATIONS THAT SEE CALM WINDS AND THOSE THAT SEE SOUTH WINDS AT
2-5 MPH...SO AROUND FREEZING IN AREAS THAT GO CALM...AND LOW TO
MID 40S IN AREAS THAT SEE LIGHT SOUTH WINDS MOST OF THE NIGHT.
THERE COULD BE SOME THICKENING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
THAT MAY PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALL AS MUCH AS THEY COULD.
MONDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND STEADY LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS IN THE 40S FOR LOWS.
QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE AS TO THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF A SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WITH FASTER
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SLOWER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONTINUED PREFRONTAL WARM
SECTOR THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...SUGGESTING
GRADUAL WIND SHIFT AND SLOWER COOLING...BUT STILL...WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...HIGHS AROUND 60...50S IN
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS.
MODELS NOT RESOLVING UPSTREAM FEATURES SUCH AS PACIFIC JET
ENERGY...AND IDA APPROACHING GULF OF MEXICO...SO ANY ISSUES FROM
TUESDAY AND BEYOND WILL NOT BE RESOLVED UNTIL FEATURES ENTER
DENSER DATA NETWORK. MORE INFO IN LONG RANGE SECTION.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST OF THE ATTENTION WILL BE ON THE TROPICS WITH IDA WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO
SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS WAS DISCOUNTED DURING THE LONG TERM SINCE ITS RELATED ENSEMBLE
DATA DOES NOT SUPPORT ITS OPERATIONAL MEMBERS INCLUDING
INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET. THE
REMNANTS OF IDA SHOULD REMAIN FAR REMOVED FROM THE LOCAL AREA AND
WILL FOLLOW A DRIER SOLUTION HEADING INTO THIS LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST.
WITH THAT SAID...SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER PLAINS
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC BY MID WEEK AND A NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FROPA.
TRENDS AND ENSEMBLE DATA SUGGEST SUBTROPICAL UPPER HIGH/RIDGE
DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BY WEEKS END WHICH WILL AID IN THE
WARM TRANSPORT FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION MAY ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AC DECK SHOWING SIGNS OF EROSION AS THE SOUTHERN EDGE SKIRTS BY
GFL...BUT EXPECTING CONTINUED MOISTURE INFLUX AT INCREASINGLY LOWER
LEVELS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...SO HAVE GONE BKN050-060 BY 04Z
AT ALL AIRPORTS. BUT ALSO THINK MORE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING IN SOME SC BELOW 3000 FEET. HAVE GONE WITH AN MVFR
CIG AT GFL AND ALB AFT 10Z.
SLGT WAA AND A FEW CLOUD BREAKS COULD FORM SOME LIGHT WAA FOG WHICH
MAY GO MVFR...XCP HAVE STAYED 6SM AT ALB...ALL AFT 04Z. GFL WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLY WORSE VSBY CATEGORY GIVEN THE PAPER
MILL AND NEARLY CALM WIND. EXPECTING THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT
THROUGH AROUND 10Z ON SUNDAY...BUT HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF
SHOWERS FOR NOW AS DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE IS SEVERELY LACKING. STILL
WOULDN`T SURPRISE ME TO SEE A FEW BRIEF SPRINKLES EVOLVE AT GFL AND
ALB TOWARD DAYBREAK.
2000-FOOT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CARRYING IN THE MOISTURE THIS EVENING
ARE INTO WIND SHEAR CRITERIA. THUS...HAVE A SHORT PERIOD OF 35
KNOTS AT ALL THE AIRPORTS FROM 22Z TO 04Z...THEN FLOW ALOFT
GRADUALLY LESSENS IN WEAKENING ENVIRONMENT. SURFACE WINDS SUNDAY
WILL BE NO MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN TODAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUN PM-MON NGT...VFR...NO WX.
TUE-TUE NGT...-SHRA...CHC MVFR CIG/VSBY.
WED...VFR...NO WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...ELH
HYDROLOGY...BGM/NAS
000
FXUS61 KBTV 072030
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
330 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY PROVIDING THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES...AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. THE
HIGH WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT
SKIRTS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1029 AM EST SATURDAY...HAVE ISSUED UPDATE TO ADJUST CLD
COVER FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. CLD COVER CURRENTLY MVG SLOWLY OVER THE
CWA THIS MORNING. AREAS THAT WERE MSUNNY WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS
AREA OF CLDS INTO THE AFTNOON HRS. REST OF FORECAST IN GD SHAPE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A NICE START TO THE FIRST FULL
WEEKEND OF NOVEMBER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. EXPECT TO SEE GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND THE SEASONAL NORMAL FOR TODAY. AS THE HIGH DRIFTS
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE AND
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 25 MPH...ESPECIALLY IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN WHERE A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 337 AM EST SATURDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH CONTINUES
TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE SKIRTING
EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OVERNIGHT. UPSTREAM
SURFACE OBS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
FEATURE...SO OVERALL NOT LOOKING FOR ANY REAL MEASURABLE PRECIP
OUT OF THIS...BUT HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. PTYPE MAY BE A SLIGHT CONCERN ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT IF
THERE IS ANY PRECIPITATION...AS MODEL SOUNDING TEMPERATURE
PROFILES INDICATE MID LEVEL TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING WHILE
COLD AIR (AOB FREEZING) REMAINS TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FREEZING PRECIPITATION...BUT WILL
HEDGE TOWARDS KEEPING PTYPE IN THE LIQUID FORM AS SURFACE TEMPS
MAY STAY RIGHT AROUND FREEZING OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE WITH AN
INCREASING CLOUD DECK ALOFT. BY SUNDAY MORNING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
HAS EXITED THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BOTH DAYS WILL
FEATURE SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS 850HPA TEMPS
WARM TO +5-10C.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 328 PM EST SATURDAY...
THE OVERALL PREDICTABILITY OF THE PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED FCST
PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE AT THE PRESENT TIME. MAIN ISSUE IS WHETHER
OR NOT 700-500MB TROUGH PHASING WILL OCCUR DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING
ONSHORE ACROSS THE NRN CA/ORE COASTLINE...AND THE UPR LOW OVER NWRN
MEXICO AND TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE WRN CARIBBEAN SEA. THERE EXITS
AN INTERESTING DICHOTOMY OF SOLNS BETWEEN THE SLOWER AND PHASED
06/12Z GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS SHOWING A DEEP SFC CYCLONE...AND THE
MAJORITY OF THE 12Z GFS MEMBERS AND OPERATIONAL ECMWF WHICH SHOW A
WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE UPR TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT ANY SFC
CYCLOGENESIS WELL EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. WHILE WE ARE NOT OUT OF THE
WOODS YET CONCERNING A POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT RAIN TO WET SNOW
SITUATION FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING /ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN NY AND THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF VT/...WE FEEL IT/S PRUDENT AT THE CURRENT TIME
TO FAVOR THE MAJORITY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND 12Z ECMWF.
WITH THAT BACKGROUND...FAVORED EVOLUTION OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES
INCLUDES A SEWD SAGGING SFC COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DURING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST POPS...AROUND 60 PERCENT...ARE ALONG THE INTL
BORDER AS SFC COLD FRONT SHIFTS GRADUALLY SEWD ACROSS NRN NY AND FAR
NRN NY. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE...GENERALLY IN THE
MID TO UPR 50S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...EXCEPT LOW 50S FOR THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH EARLIER ARRIVAL OF FRONTAL ZONE AND
PRECIPITATION.
DURING TUESDAY NIGHT...FRONTAL ZONE CONTINUES TO SHIFT SEWD ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND WITH LOW-LEVEL CAA INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE EXISTS THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SFC CYCLOGENESIS
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...BUT THE FAVORED...PROGRESSIVE SOLN WOULD HAVE
DECREASING CHANCES FOR PCPN AS BEST DYNAMICS SHIFT EAST OF THE
REGIONS AND LOW-LEVEL DRYING OCCURS. HAVE INDICATED A CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS...MIXING WITH SNOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER ELEVATION HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK GENERALLY FAIR ATTM...WITH A RIDGE OF SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TRANSLATING EWD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE MID/UPR 40S.
NEXT APPROACHING SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NGT AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...BAND OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS
BETWEEN 6-8 KFT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AND GENERALLY DIMINISH
AT THE TAF LOCATIONS THRU THIS EVENING. THESE CLOUDS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT ALOFT...BUT ARE NOT ASSOCIATED WITH
ANY PCPN. AT THE SFC...SFC RIDGE IS SHIFTING EWD INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE AND WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY WINDS THRU 12Z SUNDAY. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH
GUSTS TO 25-27 KTS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTN THRU 06Z SUNDAY. DO
HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR MPV...RUT...AND
SLK WHERE MIXING WILL NOT BE AS PRONOUNCED. THE 12Z NAM SHOWS A
DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET...REACHING AN INTENSITY OF 40-50 KTS AT 2
KFT BETWEEN 02-08Z TONIGHT. BASED ON THIS...HAVE INCLUDED WIND
SHEAR MENTION AWAY FROM THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.
THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WITH
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS. PASSAGE OF A SFC TROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
14Z SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN A BIT MORE OF A WESTERLY WIND SHIFT
TOWARD THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. ANY LOW CLOUDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH A DRIER WLY WIND FOLLOWING THE TROUGH
PASSAGE MID-MORNING SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SUNDAY 18Z THROUGH MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR.
TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLE FRONTAL WAVE
WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM WEST TO EAST BRINGING
POSSIBLE RAIN AND WIDESPREAD MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS LATE
TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT RAIN WILL TURN TO
SNOW ACROSS NRN NY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ANY SHOWERS END
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING
FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...JN/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
000
FXUS61 KBTV 071810
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
110 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY PROVIDING THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES...AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. THE
HIGH WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT
SKIRTS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1029 AM EST SATURDAY...HAVE ISSUED UPDATE TO ADJUST CLD
COVER FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. CLD COVER CURRENTLY MVG SLOWLY OVER THE
CWA THIS MORNING. AREAS THAT WERE MSUNNY WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS
AREA OF CLDS INTO THE AFTNOON HRS. REST OF FORECAST IN GD SHAPE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A NICE START TO THE FIRST FULL
WEEKEND OF NOVEMBER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. EXPECT TO SEE GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND THE SEASONAL NORMAL FOR TODAY. AS THE HIGH DRIFTS
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE AND
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 25 MPH...ESPECIALLY IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN WHERE A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 337 AM EST SATURDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH CONTINUES
TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE SKIRTING
EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OVERNIGHT. UPSTREAM
SURFACE OBS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
FEATURE...SO OVERALL NOT LOOKING FOR ANY REAL MEASURABLE PRECIP
OUT OF THIS...BUT HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. PTYPE MAY BE A SLIGHT CONCERN ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT IF
THERE IS ANY PRECIPITATION...AS MODEL SOUNDING TEMPERATURE
PROFILES INDICATE MID LEVEL TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING WHILE
COLD AIR (AOB FREEZING) REMAINS TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FREEZING PRECIPITATION...BUT WILL
HEDGE TOWARDS KEEPING PTYPE IN THE LIQUID FORM AS SURFACE TEMPS
MAY STAY RIGHT AROUND FREEZING OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE WITH AN
INCREASING CLOUD DECK ALOFT. BY SUNDAY MORNING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
HAS EXITED THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BOTH DAYS WILL
FEATURE SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS 850HPA TEMPS
WARM TO +5-10C.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 337 AM EST SATURDAY...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE TO
AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A COLD
FRONT WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT...A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW COMBINED WITH AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN RATHER MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS IN MOST
LOCATIONS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 40. THEREFORE...ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT WILL FALL AS RAIN. BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR DURING TUESDAY AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE
AREA. FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT BUT DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...KEEPING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION GOING. AS COLDER AIR RUSHES BEHIND THE FRONT ON
INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS...EXPECT A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH POSSIBILITY OF SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH QUICKLY ON
WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA THURSDAY...WHILE TEMPS REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL. COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FRIDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...BAND OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS
BETWEEN 6-8 KFT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AND GENERALLY DIMINISH
AT THE TAF LOCATIONS THRU THIS EVENING. THESE CLOUDS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT ALOFT...BUT ARE NOT ASSOCIATED WITH
ANY PCPN. AT THE SFC...SFC RIDGE IS SHIFTING EWD INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE AND WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY WINDS THRU 12Z SUNDAY. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH
GUSTS TO 25-27 KTS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTN THRU 06Z SUNDAY. DO
HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR MPV...RUT...AND
SLK WHERE MIXING WILL NOT BE AS PRONOUNCED. THE 12Z NAM SHOWS A
DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET...REACHING AN INTENSITY OF 40-50 KTS AT 2
KFT BETWEEN 02-08Z TONIGHT. BASED ON THIS...HAVE INCLUDED WIND
SHEAR MENTION AWAY FROM THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.
THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WITH
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS. PASSAGE OF A SFC TROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
14Z SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN A BIT MORE OF A WESTERLY WIND SHIFT
TOWARD THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. ANY LOW CLOUDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH A DRIER WLY WIND FOLLOWING THE TROUGH
PASSAGE MID-MORNING SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SUNDAY 18Z THROUGH MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR.
TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLE FRONTAL WAVE
WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM WEST TO EAST BRINGING
POSSIBLE RAIN AND WIDESPREAD MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS LATE
TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT RAIN WILL TURN TO
SNOW ACROSS NRN NY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ANY SHOWERS END
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING
FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...JN/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...BANACOS
000
FXUS61 KALY 071746
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1246 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BRING MILDER AIR OUR WAY
STARTING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORE NOTICEABLE BY SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 300 AM...THE SKY WAS MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS OUR REGION WITH JUST
A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS. THE WIND HAS GONE CALM AND TEMPERATURES HAVE
TUMBLED TO THE 20S. THESE READINGS WILL DIP DOWN A FEW DEGREES BY
SUNRISE.
AFTER A COLD AND FROSTY START...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST...A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS BUT OTHERWISE MAINLY SUNNY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP
NICELY ALOFT...FROM ABOUT -6C AT THE H850 LEVEL TO ABOUT +6C BY
DAY/S END. HOWEVER...INITIALLY...AN DEEP INVERSION WILL HAVE TO BE
DISPLACED SO TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM AS FAST AT THE
SURFACE...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO
MITIGATE THE INITIAL WARMUP. TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY ONLY BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY...EXCEPT MORE SO OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 45 TO 50 RANGE REGION WIDE. A
SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL PICK UP TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH BY AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND SOME CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE...SO
READINGS WILL NOT DROP OFF ALL THAT MUCH. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
SHELTERED VALLEYS WHERE DECOUPLING COULD ALLOW FOR POCKETS OF
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE 30S ABOVE FREEZING WILL BE THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACTUALLY CROSS THE REGION BY
DAYBREAK WITH A MINOR WIND SHIFT AND A FEW CLOUDS...BUT NO
PRECIPITATION.
DESPITE THE WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE...TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF
MILDER ON SUNDAY AND H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...MIXING LEVELS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER. WITH A MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY...THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
GENERALLY TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 55 TO 60 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS...50 TO
55 HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE WEST 5 TO 15 MPH.
ON SUNDAY...THERE WAS A HUGE DISPARITY BETWEEN THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE.
THE PROBLEM IS WHETHER OR NOT A BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE VERY LITTLE BREEZE SHOULD PERSIST AND AT THIS POINT A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. DESPITE A CONTINUATION OF MILD H850
TEMPERATURES...WITH THE LONG NOVEMBER NIGHT...IT SEEMED TO US THAT
THE MET MOS LOOKED A BIT TOO WARM. LEANED WITH COLDER MAV GUIDANCE
EXCEPT IN THE CAPITAL REGION AND HIGHER TERRAIN... WHERE A SOUTHERLY
BREEZE MIGHT REMAIN JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
MUCH BELOW THE UPPER 30S. ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS...LOOKS FOR LOWS AROUND FREEZING...STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE TIME OF YEAR.
BY MONDAY...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH H850 TEMPERATURES
OF AROUND +10C TO SEND TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 60S FROM ABOUT
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHWARD...AND WELL INTO THE 50S EVEN UP TO
THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER AN UNSEASONABLY MILD NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLY CHILLY AIR
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BUILDS IN. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...
WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL REACH THE
50S TO LOWER 60S BEFORE THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO COOL THINGS OFF.
EVEN THOUGH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF MODEL RUNS ARE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT
THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL NOT DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT UNTIL IT IS WELL
TO OUR EAST...THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN THE
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND PCPN WILL END...SO HAVE OPTED FOR A
LONGER PERIOD OF CHANCE POPS...RATHER THAN CONCENTRATE HIGHER POPS
DURING A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. HIGHEST POPS OF AROUND 40 PERCENT
HAVE BEEN FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING.
WILL KEEP A LINGERING LOW CHANCE OF PCPN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PCPN OVER THE WESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY
MORNING WHICH WILL BE DUE TO LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S...WITH THE HIGHS WEDNESDAY 40
TO 50 WITH BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.
THE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD REMAIN
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 20 TO 30...THE HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S...AND THE LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER
30S.
ON FRIDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
WEST...AND MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
HAVE FORECAST SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY FOR THE NORTHWEST
TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THEN 30 TO 40 PERCENT POPS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S...THE LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S...THEN HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AC DECK SHOWING SIGNS OF EROSION AS THE SOUTHERN EDGE SKIRTS BY
GFL...BUT EXPECTING CONTINUED MOISTURE INFLUX AT INCREASINGLY LOWER
LEVELS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...SO HAVE GONE BKN050-060 BY 04Z
AT ALL AIRPORTS. BUT ALSO THINK MORE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING IN SOME SC BELOW 3000 FEET. HAVE GONE WITH AN MVFR
CIG AT GFL AND ALB AFT 10Z.
SLGT WAA AND A FEW CLOUD BREAKS COULD FORM SOME LIGHT WAA FOG WHICH
MAY GO MVFR...XCP HAVE STAYED 6SM AT ALB...ALL AFT 04Z. GFL WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLY WORSE VSBY CATEGORY GIVEN THE PAPER
MILL AND NEARLY CALM WIND. EXPECTING THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT
THROUGH AROUND 10Z ON SUNDAY...BUT HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF
SHOWERS FOR NOW AS DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE IS SEVERELY LACKING. STILL
WOULDN`T SURPRISE ME TO SEE A FEW BRIEF SPRINKLES EVOLVE AT GFL AND
ALB TOWARD DAYBREAK.
2000-FOOT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CARRYING IN THE MOISTURE THIS EVENING
ARE INTO WIND SHEAR CRITERIA. THUS...HAVE A SHORT PERIOD OF 35
KNOTS AT ALL THE AIRPORTS FROM 22Z TO 04Z...THEN FLOW ALOFT
GRADUALLY LESSENS IN WEAKENING ENVIRONMENT. SURFACE WINDS SUNDAY
WILL BE NO MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN TODAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUN PM-MON NGT...VFR...NO WX.
TUE-TUE NGT...-SHRA...CHC MVFR CIG/VSBY.
WED...VFR...NO WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
PLEASE NOTE...THE FIRE WEATHER SEASON HAS OFFICIALLY ENDED. WE WILL
NO LONGER ISSUE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...NFDRS FORECAST (FWM)
AND FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT (FWF) UNTIL EARLY NEXT SPRING.
KEEP IN MIND...OUR FIRE WEATHER GRIDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POPULATED
TWICE A DAY (MORNING AND EVENING) AND SPOT FORECASTS WILL BE
AVAILABLE UPON REQUEST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
$$
AVIATION...ELH
000
FXUS61 KBTV 071529
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1029 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY PROVIDING THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES...AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. THE
HIGH WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT
SKIRTS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1029 AM EST SATURDAY...HAVE ISSUED UPDATE TO ADJUST CLD
COVER FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. CLD COVER CURRENTLY MVG SLOWLY OVER THE
CWA THIS MORNING. AREAS THAT WERE MSUNNY WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS
AREA OF CLDS INTO THE AFTNOON HRS. REST OF FORECAST IN GD SHAPE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A NICE START TO THE FIRST FULL
WEEKEND OF NOVEMBER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. EXPECT TO SEE GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND THE SEASONAL NORMAL FOR TODAY. AS THE HIGH DRIFTS
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE AND
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 25 MPH...ESPECIALLY IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN WHERE A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 337 AM EST SATURDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH CONTINUES
TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE SKIRTING
EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OVERNIGHT. UPSTREAM
SURFACE OBS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
FEATURE...SO OVERALL NOT LOOKING FOR ANY REAL MEASURABLE PRECIP
OUT OF THIS...BUT HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. PTYPE MAY BE A SLIGHT CONCERN ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT IF
THERE IS ANY PRECIPITATION...AS MODEL SOUNDING TEMPERATURE
PROFILES INDICATE MID LEVEL TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING WHILE
COLD AIR (AOB FREEZING) REMAINS TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FREEZING PRECIPITATION...BUT WILL
HEDGE TOWARDS KEEPING PTYPE IN THE LIQUID FORM AS SURFACE TEMPS
MAY STAY RIGHT AROUND FREEZING OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE WITH AN
INCREASING CLOUD DECK ALOFT. BY SUNDAY MORNING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
HAS EXITED THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BOTH DAYS WILL
FEATURE SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS 850HPA TEMPS
WARM TO +5-10C.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 337 AM EST SATURDAY...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE TO
AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A COLD
FRONT WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT...A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW COMBINED WITH AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN RATHER MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS IN MOST
LOCATIONS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 40. THEREFORE...ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT WILL FALL AS RAIN. BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR DURING TUESDAY AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE
AREA. FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT BUT DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...KEEPING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION GOING. AS COLDER AIR RUSHES BEHIND THE FRONT ON
INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS...EXPECT A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH POSSIBILITY OF SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH QUICKLY ON
WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA THURSDAY...WHILE TEMPS REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL. COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FRIDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS TODAY...WITH SCT080-100 BECOMING BKN060-080
OVER NRN NY TODAY AND ACROSS VT THIS EVENING. CIGS MAY LOWER TO
AROUND 4000 KFT TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH AND INCREASE TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS 15-25 KTS
BY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE AT KBTV. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND DIMINISH TO 5-10 KTS.
OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR LOWERING TO MVFR AT TIMES
TUESDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DUE COLD FRONT.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MVFR AT TIMES IN SCT RAIN/SNOW
SHWRS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...JN/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS
000
FXUS61 KBTV 071153
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
653 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY PROVIDING THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES...AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. THE
HIGH WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT
SKIRTS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 337 AM EST SATURDAY...A NICE START TO THE FIRST FULL
WEEKEND OF NOVEMBER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. EXPECT TO SEE GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND THE SEASONAL NORMAL FOR TODAY. AS THE HIGH DRIFTS
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE AND
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 25 MPH...ESPECIALLY IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN WHERE A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 337 AM EST SATURDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH CONTINUES
TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE SKIRTING
EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OVERNIGHT. UPSTREAM
SURFACE OBS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
FEATURE...SO OVERALL NOT LOOKING FOR ANY REAL MEASURABLE PRECIP
OUT OF THIS...BUT HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. PTYPE MAY BE A SLIGHT CONCERN ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT IF
THERE IS ANY PRECIPITATION...AS MODEL SOUNDING TEMPERATURE
PROFILES INDICATE MID LEVEL TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING WHILE
COLD AIR (AOB FREEZING) REMAINS TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FREEZING PRECIPITATION...BUT WILL
HEDGE TOWARDS KEEPING PTYPE IN THE LIQUID FORM AS SURFACE TEMPS
MAY STAY RIGHT AROUND FREEZING OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE WITH AN
INCREASING CLOUD DECK ALOFT. BY SUNDAY MORNING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
HAS EXITED THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BOTH DAYS WILL
FEATURE SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS 850HPA TEMPS
WARM TO +5-10C.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 337 AM EST SATURDAY...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE TO
AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A COLD
FRONT WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT...A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW COMBINED WITH AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN RATHER MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS IN MOST
LOCATIONS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 40. THEREFORE...ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT WILL FALL AS RAIN. BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR DURING TUESDAY AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE
AREA. FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT BUT DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...KEEPING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION GOING. AS COLDER AIR RUSHES BEHIND THE FRONT ON
INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS...EXPECT A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH POSSIBILITY OF SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH QUICKLY ON
WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA THURSDAY...WHILE TEMPS REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL. COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FRIDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS TODAY...WITH SCT080-100 BECOMING BKN060-080
OVER NRN NY TODAY AND ACROSS VT THIS EVENING. CIGS MAY LOWER TO
AROUND 4000 KFT TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH AND INCREASE TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS 15-25 KTS
BY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE AT KBTV. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND DIMINISH TO 5-10 KTS.
OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR LOWERING TO MVFR AT TIMES
TUESDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DUE COLD FRONT.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MVFR AT TIMES IN SCT RAIN/SNOW
SHWRS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS
000
FXUS61 KALY 071139
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
640 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BRING MILDER AIR OUR WAY
STARTING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORE NOTICEABLE BY SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 300 AM...THE SKY WAS MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS OUR REGION WITH JUST
A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS. THE WIND HAS GONE CALM AND TEMPERATURES HAVE
TUMBLED TO THE 20S. THESE READINGS WILL DIP DOWN A FEW DEGREES BY
SUNRISE.
AFTER A COLD AND FROSTY START...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST...A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS BUT OTHERWISE MAINLY SUNNY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP
NICELY ALOFT...FROM ABOUT -6C AT THE H850 LEVEL TO ABOUT +6C BY
DAY/S END. HOWEVER...INITIALLY...AN DEEP INVERSION WILL HAVE TO BE
DISPLACED SO TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM AS FAST AT THE
SURFACE...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO
MITIGATE THE INITIAL WARMUP. TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY ONLY BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY...EXCEPT MORE SO OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 45 TO 50 RANGE REGION WIDE. A
SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL PICK UP TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH BY AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND SOME CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE...SO
READINGS WILL NOT DROP OFF ALL THAT MUCH. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
SHELTERED VALLEYS WHERE DECOUPLING COULD ALLOW FOR POCKETS OF
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE 30S ABOVE FREEZING WILL BE THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACTUALLY CROSS THE REGION BY
DAYBREAK WITH A MINOR WIND SHIFT AND A FEW CLOUDS...BUT NO
PRECIPITATION.
DESPITE THE WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE...TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF
MILDER ON SUNDAY AND H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...MIXING LEVELS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER. WITH A MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY...THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
GENERALLY TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 55 TO 60 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS...50 TO
55 HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE WEST 5 TO 15 MPH.
ON SUNDAY...THERE WAS A HUGE DISPARITY BETWEEN THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE.
THE PROBLEM IS WHETHER OR NOT A BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE VERY LITTLE BREEZE SHOULD PERSIST AND AT THIS POINT A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. DESPITE A CONTINUATION OF MILD H850
TEMPERATURES...WITH THE LONG NOVEMBER NIGHT...IT SEEMED TO US THAT
THE MET MOS LOOKED A BIT TOO WARM. LEANED WITH COLDER MAV GUIDANCE
EXCEPT IN THE CAPITAL REGION AND HIGHER TERRAIN... WHERE A SOUTHERLY
BREEZE MIGHT REMAIN JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
MUCH BELOW THE UPPER 30S. ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS...LOOKS FOR LOWS AROUND FREEZING...STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE TIME OF YEAR.
BY MONDAY...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH H850 TEMPERATURES
OF AROUND +10C TO SEND TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 60S FROM ABOUT
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHWARD...AND WELL INTO THE 50S EVEN UP TO
THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER AN UNSEASONABLY MILD NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLY CHILLY AIR
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BUILDS IN. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...
WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL REACH THE
50S TO LOWER 60S BEFORE THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO COOL THINGS OFF.
EVEN THOUGH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF MODEL RUNS ARE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT
THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL NOT DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT UNTIL IT IS WELL
TO OUR EAST...THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN THE
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND PCPN WILL END...SO HAVE OPTED FOR A
LONGER PERIOD OF CHANCE POPS...RATHER THAN CONCENTRATE HIGHER POPS
DURING A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. HIGHEST POPS OF AROUND 40 PERCENT
HAVE BEEN FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING.
WILL KEEP A LINGERING LOW CHANCE OF PCPN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PCPN OVER THE WESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY
MORNING WHICH WILL BE DUE TO LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S...WITH THE HIGHS WEDNESDAY 40
TO 50 WITH BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.
THE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD REMAIN
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 20 TO 30...THE HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S...AND THE LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER
30S.
ON FRIDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
WEST...AND MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
HAVE FORECAST SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY FOR THE NORTHWEST
TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THEN 30 TO 40 PERCENT POPS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S...THE LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S...THEN HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ASIDE FROM A LITTLE MVFR POSSIBLE AT KGFL THROUGH 13Z...NO AVIATION
WEATHER RELATED ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. LOOK FOR A
SOUTHERLY WIND TO INCREASE TO NEAR 10KTS BY AFTERNOON...UNRESTRICTED
VISIBLITY AND PATCHY HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
BY THE OVERNIGHT...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...MVFR FOG IS
EXPECTED AT KGFL...POSSIBLY GOING DOWN TO IFR FOG AT TIMES. LITTLE
OR NO FOG IS EXPECTED AT THE TWO OTHER TERMINALS. A SOUTH WIND WILL
DIMINISH AT KPOU/KGFL BUT WILL PERSIST AROUND 6KTS AT KALB.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-MON...VFR...NO SIG WX.
TUE...MVFR...CIG. CHC -SHRAS.
WED...VFR...NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
PLEASE NOTE...THE FIRE WEATHER SEASON HAS OFFICIALLY ENDED. WE WILL
NO LONGER ISSUE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...NFDRS FORECAST (FWM)
AND FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT (FWF) UNTIL EARLY NEXT SPRING.
KEEP IN MIND...OUR FIRE WEATHER GRIDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POPULATED
TWICE A DAY (MORNING AND EVENING) AND SPOT FORECASTS WILL BE
AVAILABLE UPON REQUEST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...HWJIV
000
FXUS61 KALY 070913
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BRING MILDER AIR OUR WAY
STARTING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORE NOTICEABLE BY SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 300 AM...THE SKY WAS MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS OUR REGION WITH JUST
A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS. THE WIND HAS GONE CALM AND TEMPERATURES HAVE
TUMBLED TO THE 20S. THESE READINGS WILL DIP DOWN A FEW DEGREES BY
SUNRISE.
AFTER A COLD AND FROSTY START...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST...A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS BUT OTHERWISE MAINLY SUNNY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP
NICELY ALOFT...FROM ABOUT -6C AT THE H850 LEVEL TO ABOUT +6C BY
DAY/S END. HOWEVER...INITIALLY...AN DEEP INVERSION WILL HAVE TO BE
DISPLACED SO TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM AS FAST AT THE
SURFACE...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO
MITIGATE THE INITIAL WARMUP. TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY ONLY BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY...EXCEPT MORE SO OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 45 TO 50 RANGE REGION WIDE. A
SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL PICK UP TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH BY AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND SOME CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE...SO
READINGS WILL NOT DROP OFF ALL THAT MUCH. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
SHELTERED VALLEYS WHERE DECOUPLING COULD ALLOW FOR POCKETS OF
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE 30S ABOVE FREEZING WILL BE THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACTUALLY CROSS THE REGION BY
DAYBREAK WITH A MINOR WIND SHIFT AND A FEW CLOUDS...BUT NO
PRECIPITATION.
DESPITE THE WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE...TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF
MILDER ON SUNDAY AND H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...MIXING LEVELS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER. WITH A MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY...THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
GENERALLY TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 55 TO 60 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS...50 TO
55 HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE WEST 5 TO 15 MPH.
ON SUNDAY...THERE WAS A HUGE DISPARITY BETWEEN THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE.
THE PROBLEM IS WHETHER OR NOT A BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE VERY LITTLE BREEZE SHOULD PERSIST AND AT THIS POINT A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. DESPITE A CONTINUATION OF MILD H850
TEMPERATURES...WITH THE LONG NOVEMBER NIGHT...IT SEEMED TO US THAT
THE MET MOS LOOKED A BIT TOO WARM. LEANED WITH COLDER MAV GUIDANCE
EXCEPT IN THE CAPITAL REGION AND HIGHER TERRAIN... WHERE A SOUTHERLY
BREEZE MIGHT REMAIN JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
MUCH BELOW THE UPPER 30S. ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS...LOOKS FOR LOWS AROUND FREEZING...STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE TIME OF YEAR.
BY MONDAY...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH H850 TEMPERATURES
OF AROUND +10C TO SEND TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 60S FROM ABOUT
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHWARD...AND WELL INTO THE 50S EVEN UP TO
THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER AN UNSEASONABLY MILD NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLY CHILLY AIR
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BUILDS IN. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...
WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL REACH THE
50S TO LOWER 60S BEFORE THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO COOL THINGS OFF.
EVEN THOUGH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF MODEL RUNS ARE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT
THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL NOT DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT UNTIL IT IS WELL
TO OUR EAST...THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN THE
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND PCPN WILL END...SO HAVE OPTED FOR A
LONGER PERIOD OF CHANCE POPS...RATHER THAN CONCENTRATE HIGHER POPS
DURING A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. HIGHEST POPS OF AROUND 40 PERCENT
HAVE BEEN FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING.
WILL KEEP A LINGERING LOW CHANCE OF PCPN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PCPN OVER THE WESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY
MORNING WHICH WILL BE DUE TO LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S...WITH THE HIGHS WEDNESDAY 40
TO 50 WITH BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.
THE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD REMAIN
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 20 TO 30...THE HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S...AND THE LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER
30S.
ON FRIDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
WEST...AND MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
HAVE FORECAST SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY FOR THE NORTHWEST
TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THEN 30 TO 40 PERCENT POPS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S...THE LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S...THEN HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PERIOD THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE KGFL WHERE MVFR VSBY IS POSSIBLE IN FOG. NOT
CERTAIN ABOUT THIS AT THIS TIME SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS LATER
TONIGHT MAY RESULT IN SOME MVFR...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED AS A TEMPO
GROUP BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. OTHERWISE NOTHING MORE THAN SCT-BKN HIGH
CLOUDS AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY CALM THROUGH AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER
SUNRISE...THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS DURING SATURDAY.
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...THE WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT
SOUTH.
OUTLOOK...
LATE SAT NIGHT...MVFR/IFR FOG A STRONG POSSIBILITY.
SUN-WED...VFR...NO WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
PLEASE NOTE...THE FIRE WEATHER SEASON HAS OFFICIALLY ENDED. WE WILL
NO LONGER ISSUE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...NFDRS FORECAST (FWM)
AND FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT (FWF) UNTIL EARLY NEXT SPRING.
KEEP IN MIND...OUR FIRE WEATHER GRIDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POPULATED
TWICE A DAY (MORNING AND EVENING) AND SPOT FORECASTS WILL BE
AVAILABLE UPON REQUEST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...RCK
000
FXUS61 KBTV 070839
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
339 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY PROVIDING THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES...AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. THE
HIGH WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT
SKIRTS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 337 AM EST SATURDAY...A NICE START TO THE FIRST FULL
WEEKEND OF NOVEMBER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. EXPECT TO SEE GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND THE SEASONAL NORMAL FOR TODAY. AS THE HIGH DRIFTS
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE AND
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 25 MPH...ESPECIALLY IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN WHERE A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 337 AM EST SATURDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH CONTINUES
TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE SKIRTING
EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OVERNIGHT. UPSTREAM
SURFACE OBS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
FEATURE...SO OVERALL NOT LOOKING FOR ANY REAL MEASURABLE PRECIP
OUT OF THIS...BUT HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. PTYPE MAY BE A SLIGHT CONCERN ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT IF
THERE IS ANY PRECIPITATION...AS MODEL SOUNDING TEMPERATURE
PROFILES INDICATE MID LEVEL TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING WHILE
COLD AIR (AOB FREEZING) REMAINS TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FREEZING PRECIPITATION...BUT WILL
HEDGE TOWARDS KEEPING PTYPE IN THE LIQUID FORM AS SURFACE TEMPS
MAY STAY RIGHT AROUND FREEZING OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE WITH AN
INCREASING CLOUD DECK ALOFT. BY SUNDAY MORNING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
HAS EXITED THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BOTH DAYS WILL
FEATURE SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS 850HPA TEMPS
WARM TO +5-10C.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 337 AM EST SATURDAY...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE TO
AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A COLD
FRONT WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT...A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW COMBINED WITH AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN RATHER MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS IN MOST
LOCATIONS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 40. THEREFORE...ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT WILL FALL AS RAIN. BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR DURING TUESDAY AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE
AREA. FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT BUT DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...KEEPING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION GOING. AS COLDER AIR RUSHES BEHIND THE FRONT ON
INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS...EXPECT A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH POSSIBILITY OF SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH QUICKLY ON
WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA THURSDAY...WHILE TEMPS REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL. COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FRIDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FIRST 24 HOURS EXCEPT FOR SOME OCCASIONAL MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 10Z
THIS MORNING...MAINLY AT KMPV. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH MAINLY SCT060-080 DURING SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING...EXCEPT BECOMING BKN060-080 AT KMSS/KSLK.
WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE THRU 12Z...THEN BECOMING SOUTH AND
INCREASING TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS 15-20 KTS BY AFTERNOON. HIGHEST
GUSTS WILL BE AT KBTV/KMSS.
OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE UNDER
GENERAL REGIME OF HIGH PRESSURE. A PERIOD OF BKN MID CLOUDS
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING DUE WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR AT TIMES
TUESDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH COLD FRONT.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MVFR IN SCT SNOW SHWRS TUES
NIGHT BECOMING VFR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS
000
FXUS61 KALY 070800
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
300 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BRING MILDER AIR OUR WAY
STARTING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORE NOTICEABLE BY SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 300 AM...THE SKY WAS MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS OUR REGION WITH JUST
A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS. THE WIND HAS GONE CALM AND TEMPERATURES HAVE
TUMBLED TO THE 20S. THESE READINGS WILL DIP DOWN A FEW DEGREES BY
SUNRISE.
AFTER A COLD AND FROSTY START...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST...A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS BUT OTHERWISE MAINLY SUNNY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP
NICELY ALOFT...FROM ABOUT -6C AT THE H850 LEVEL TO ABOUT +6C BY
DAY/S END. HOWEVER...INITIALLY...AN DEEP INVERSION WILL HAVE TO BE
DISPLACED SO TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM AS FAST AT THE
SURFACE...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO
MITIGATE THE INITIAL WARMUP. TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY ONLY BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY...EXCEPT MORE SO OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 45 TO 50 RANGE REGION WIDE. A
SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL PICK UP TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH BY AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND SOME CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE...SO
READINGS WILL NOT DROP OFF ALL THAT MUCH. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
SHELTERED VALLEYS WHERE DECOUPLING COULD ALLOW FOR POCKETS OF
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE 30S ABOVE FREEZING WILL BE THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACTUALLY CROSS THE REGION BY
DAYBREAK WITH A MINOR WIND SHIFT AND A FEW CLOUDS...BUT NO
PRECIPITATION.
DESPITE THE WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE...TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF
MILDER ON SUNDAY AND H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...MIXING LEVELS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER. WITH A MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY...THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
GENERALLY TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 55 TO 60 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS...50 TO
55 HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE WEST 5 TO 15 MPH.
ON SUNDAY...THERE WAS A HUGE DISPARITY BETWEEN THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE.
THE PROBLEM IS WHETHER OR NOT A BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE VERY LITTLE BREEZE SHOULD PERSIST AND AT THIS POINT A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. DESPITE A CONTINUATION OF MILD H850
TEMPERATURES...WITH THE LONG NOVEMBER NIGHT...IT SEEMED TO US THAT
THE MET MOS LOOKED A BIT TOO WARM. LEANED WITH COLDER MAV GUIDANCE
EXCEPT IN THE CAPITAL REGION AND HIGHER TERRAIN... WHERE A SOUTHERLY
BREEZE MIGHT REMAIN JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
MUCH BELOW THE UPPER 30S. ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS...LOOKS FOR LOWS AROUND FREEZING...STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE TIME OF YEAR.
BY MONDAY...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH H850 TEMPERATURES
OF AROUND +10C TO SEND TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 60S FROM ABOUT
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHWARD...AND WELL INTO THE 50S EVEN UP TO
THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL HIGH PRESSURE WITH A COUPLE OF TROUGHS BRINGING A CHC OF
PRECIP MAINLY TUESDAY AND FRIDAY. TO START THE PERIOD...SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD GRADUALLY SLIDES EASTWARD INTO
THE ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NOT MUCH CONTINUITY AMONG
MODELS WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHS. ECMWF
THE SLOWER SOLUTION WITH REGARDS TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...
MOVING PRECIP INTO THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
GFS BRINGS PRECIP INTO THE NW PORTIONS OF CWA MONDAY NIGHT...DRYING
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA ON TUESDAY. WITH MIN TEMPS DIPPING INTO
THE UPPER 20S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED AT AND ABOVE 2KFT...AND RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW BEGINNING
AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1.5KFT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE MORE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
THE MAX TEMPS IN THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOUT 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...QUICKLY COOLING TO AROUND NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY
AFTER THE FIRST COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FROM THERE...MAX TEMPS
WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS...DECREASING TO AROUND NORMAL IN THE LOW
30S THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PERIOD THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE KGFL WHERE MVFR VSBY IS POSSIBLE IN FOG. NOT
CERTAIN ABOUT THIS AT THIS TIME SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS LATER
TONIGHT MAY RESULT IN SOME MVFR...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED AS A TEMPO
GROUP BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. OTHERWISE NOTHING MORE THAN SCT-BKN HIGH
CLOUDS AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY CALM THROUGH AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER
SUNRISE...THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS DURING SATURDAY.
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...THE WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT
SOUTH.
OUTLOOK...
LATE SAT NIGHT...MVFR/IFR FOG A STRONG POSSIBILITY.
SUN-WED...VFR...NO WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
PLEASE NOTE...THE FIRE WEATHER SEASON HAS OFFICIALLY ENDED. WE WILL
NO LONGER ISSUE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...NFDRS FORECAST (FWM)
AND FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT (FWF) UNTIL EARLY NEXT SPRING.
KEEP IN MIND...OUR FIRE WEATHER GRIDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POPULATED
TWICE A DAY (MORNING AND EVENING) AND SPOT FORECASTS WILL BE
AVAILABLE UPON REQUEST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...RCK
000
FXUS61 KBTV 070616
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
116 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY BY MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE SOUTH
OF THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AS A WEAK FRONT SKIRTS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THEREAFTER...INTO
MIDWEEK...GIVING THE REGION ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1026 PM EST FRIDAY...VERTICAL DEPTH OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
BECOME LIMITED OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...THUS DIMINISHING THE
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES IN
THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE PRONOUNCED DRYING TAKES OVER OVERNIGHT AND
SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURE AND WIND FORECASTS IN REAL GOOD
SHAPE AND OTHER THAN SOME MINOR CLOUD/PRECIPITATION TWEAKS...
OVERALL FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM EST FRIDAY...SFC RIDGE WILL SLIDE S AND E OF THE CWA
DURING THE MORNING HRS SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR WAA ON INCR WSW
FLOW. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP AS THE AFTNOON PROGRESSES...
ENHANCED BY APPROACHING WK FRNTL BOUNDRY. BUFKIT HINTS AT
POTENTIAL TO SEE GUSTS UP TO 25-30MPH GOING INTO SAT NGT. SEVERAL
MDLS CONTINUE TO SHOW MAIN LOW ASSOCIATED W/ FRONT WELL NORTH INTO
EASTERN CANADA. W/ MOST DYNAMIC NEAR LOW...AND LOW MDL
QPF...EXPECTING NO MAJOR ISSUE WITH FRNT. WILL GRAZE NORTHERN
BORDER ZONES AND WILL KEEP POPS TO SL CHANCE. INCR TEMPS OVERNGT
WILL ALLOW FOR ANY/MOST PRECIP TO REMAIN AS --RW W/ ANY CHANCE FOR
A FLURRY IN FAR NE VT SUN MORN. W FLOW BEHIND SYSTEM ON SUNDAY
WILL SHIFT BACK TO WSW AS RIDGE IN PLACE OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH.
WILL GO W/ TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABV MDL GUIDANCE TO ACCT FOR STRONG
WAA...BUT FOR SUN NGT...APPROACHING CLDS FROM ANOTHER WK FRNT MAY
HAMPER TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM EST FRIDAY...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED
WITH JUST A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS TO PASS ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST
AND SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. 850MB TEMPS AROUND 5C AND MORE SUN
THAN CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO
PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THE FIRST COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT EXPECT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT AS MAIN DYNAMICS STAY TO THE
NORTH AND MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED. PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL MAINLY AS RAIN...WITH SOME LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW FROPA...AND WITH
THE FORECAST REGION UNDER NORTH FLOW MOST OF THE DAY
TUESDAY...BACKED OFF MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM MOS
NUMBERS. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH TEMPS
REMAINING CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS. THEN A SECOND FRONT WILL SAG
SOUTH FROM CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.
EXPECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THESE PERIODS...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN SECTIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FIRST 24 HOURS EXCEPT FOR SOME OCCASIONAL MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 10Z
THIS MORNING...MAINLY AT KMPV. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH MAINLY SCT060-080 DURING SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING...EXCEPT BECOMING BKN060-080 AT KMSS/KSLK.
WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE THRU 12Z...THEN BECOMING SOUTH AND
INCREASING TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS 15-20 KTS BY AFTERNOON. HIGHEST
GUSTS WILL BE AT KBTV/KMSS.
OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE UNDER
GENERAL REGIME OF HIGH PRESSURE. A PERIOD OF BKN MID CLOUDS
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING DUE WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR AT TIMES
TUESDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH COLD FRONT.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MVFR IN SCT SNOW SHWRS TUES
NIGHT BECOMING VFR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...MB
AVIATION...RJS
000
FXUS61 KALY 070526
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1225 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR BY MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY WHICH WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE. IT
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO LOWER TEMPS SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING AND CLEAR
THINGS OUT A LITTLE QUICKER AS LATEST SAT PICS SHOW AREA OF STRATO
CU SHRINKING. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS BY 2 TO 5 DEGREES AS H8 TEMPS -5
TO -8 C ACRS FA THIS EVENING AND WITH CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS
AND A FRESH LIGHT SNOW COVER ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TEMPS
WILL DROP INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S ACRS MOST OF THE FA.
THE FOLLOWING IS FROM THE PREVIOUS AFD ISSUED AT 429 PM EST...
WALL OF CLOUDS REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME BREAKS AND PATCHES OF CLEAR SKY WEST AND
UPWIND OF THE REGION WHICH ARE LIKELY TO COME ACROSS THE REGION
LATER THIS EVENING. THE 12Z GFS SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON
SKY COVER OVERNIGHT. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGH MID
MORNING SATURDAY. WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM FOR THE MIN
TEMPERATURES...BUT RAISED THEM SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS AS
OBSERVED DEWPOINTS WERE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
DO NOT EXPECT ANY SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES THIS EVENING OR OVER
NIGHT AS NOTHING INDICATED ON ANY OBS UPSTREAM.
USED ADJUSTED MET/MOS GUIDANCE FOR WINDS WITH SOME SMOOTHING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS AND NCEP ANALYSIS INDICATE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR CAPE HATTERAS SATURDAY MORNING...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS
SOUTHWESTERLY FROM THE GULF COAST STATES NORTHWARD ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. THE HIGH CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY...WITH A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION. USED A 50/50 BLEND OF THE MAV/MOS AND MET/MOS FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES. TIME SERIES PROFILE INDICATES WE MAY SEE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS SATURDAY...BUT EVEN IF IT PANS OUT WE WOULD STILL GET
FILTERED SUN. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER
40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT TO THE LOW 50S IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY 8 TO 12 MPH.
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS
SWINGING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY. IT WILL NOT
BE NEARLY AS COLD AS WINDS WILL BE 5 TO 10 MPH. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 30S.
WITH A WARMER START...AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE COOLER REGIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...TO THE LOW 60S IN THE HUDSON
AND LOWER HOUSATONIC RIVER VALLEYS.
IT WILL CONTINUE DRY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL HIGH PRESSURE WITH A COUPLE OF TROUGHS BRINGING A CHC OF
PRECIP MAINLY TUESDAY AND FRIDAY. TO START THE PERIOD...SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD GRADUALLY SLIDES EASTWARD INTO
THE ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NOT MUCH CONTINUITY AMONG
MODELS WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHS. ECMWF
THE SLOWER SOLUTION WITH REGARDS TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...
MOVING PRECIP INTO THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
GFS BRINGS PRECIP INTO THE NW PORTIONS OF CWA MONDAY NIGHT...DRYING
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA ON TUESDAY. WITH MIN TEMPS DIPPING INTO
THE UPPER 20S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED AT AND ABOVE 2KFT...AND RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW BEGINNING
AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1.5KFT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE MORE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
THE MAX TEMPS IN THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOUT 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...QUICKLY COOLING TO AROUND NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY
AFTER THE FIRST COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FROM THERE...MAX TEMPS
WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS...DECREASING TO AROUND NORMAL IN THE LOW
30S THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PERIOD THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE KGFL WHERE MVFR VSBY IS POSSIBLE IN FOG. NOT
CERTAIN ABOUT THIS AT THIS TIME SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS LATER
TONIGHT MAY RESULT IN SOME MVFR...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED AS A TEMPO
GROUP BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. OTHERWISE NOTHING MORE THAN SCT-BKN HIGH
CLOUDS AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY CALM THROUGH AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER
SUNRISE...THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS DURING SATURDAY.
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...THE WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT
SOUTH.
OUTLOOK...
LATE SAT NIGHT...MVFR/IFR FOG A STRONG POSSIBILITY.
SUN-WED...VFR...NO WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 80 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES COOL AND APPROACH THE DEWPOINT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING TO LESS THAN 5 MPH. UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES RH
VALUES WILL DECREASE TO BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT BY MIDDAY
SATURDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 6 AND 12 MPH. UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THE RH WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX ACROSS THE REGION IS LESS
THAN 200.
THE FIRE WEATHER SEASON ENDS TODAY. THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
OF THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED...ALONG
WITH THE TABULAR FIRE WEATHER FORECASTS (FWF) AND THE FIRE
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS (FWM). THE FIRE WEATHER GRAPHICAL FORECASTS
AND IMAGES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ISSUED AND MAY BE FOUND ON OUR WEB
SITE. SPOT FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AVAILABLE UPON REQUEST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
THE LAST EVENT BROUGHT VERY LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION WHICH CAUSED
A FEW RIVERS TO STOP RECEDING. HOWEVER THEY WILL BEGIN TO RECEDE
LATER TODAY...AND DEFINITELY DO SO AS THINGS COOL OFF TONIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES GO WELL BELOW FREEZING. SOME SNOW IS LIKELY TO MELT
SATURDAY...BUT WHATEVER DOES IS LIKELY TO JUST SEEP INTO THE GROUND
WITH LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON THE RIVERS.
ASIDE FROM SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES TODAY...THE WEATHER
WILL BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RCK
NEAR TERM...RCK/11
SHORT TERM...RCK
LONG TERM...KGS
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...RCK
HYDROLOGY...RCK
000
FXUS61 KBTV 070330
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1030 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY BY MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE SOUTH
OF THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AS A WEAK FRONT SKIRTS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THEREAFTER...INTO
MIDWEEK...GIVING THE REGION ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1026 PM EST FRIDAY...VERTICAL DEPTH OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
BECOME LIMITED OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...THUS DIMINISHING THE
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES IN
THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE PRONOUNCED DRYING TAKES OVER OVERNIGHT AND
SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURE AND WIND FORECASTS IN REAL GOOD
SHAPE AND OTHER THAN SOME MINOR CLOUD/PRECIPITATION TWEAKS...
OVERALL FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM EST FRIDAY...SFC RIDGE WILL SLIDE S AND E OF THE CWA
DURING THE MORNING HRS SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR WAA ON INCR WSW
FLOW. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP AS THE AFTNOON PROGRESSES...
ENHANCED BY APPROACHING WK FRNTL BOUNDRY. BUFKIT HINTS AT
POTENTIAL TO SEE GUSTS UP TO 25-30MPH GOING INTO SAT NGT. SEVERAL
MDLS CONTINUE TO SHOW MAIN LOW ASSOCIATED W/ FRONT WELL NORTH INTO
EASTERN CANADA. W/ MOST DYNAMIC NEAR LOW...AND LOW MDL
QPF...EXPECTING NO MAJOR ISSUE WITH FRNT. WILL GRAZE NORTHERN
BORDER ZONES AND WILL KEEP POPS TO SL CHANCE. INCR TEMPS OVERNGT
WILL ALLOW FOR ANY/MOST PRECIP TO REMAIN AS --RW W/ ANY CHANCE FOR
A FLURRY IN FAR NE VT SUN MORN. W FLOW BEHIND SYSTEM ON SUNDAY
WILL SHIFT BACK TO WSW AS RIDGE IN PLACE OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH.
WILL GO W/ TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABV MDL GUIDANCE TO ACCT FOR STRONG
WAA...BUT FOR SUN NGT...APPROACHING CLDS FROM ANOTHER WK FRNT MAY
HAMPER TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM EST FRIDAY...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED
WITH JUST A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS TO PASS ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST
AND SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. 850MB TEMPS AROUND 5C AND MORE SUN
THAN CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO
PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THE FIRST COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT EXPECT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT AS MAIN DYNAMICS STAY TO THE
NORTH AND MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED. PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL MAINLY AS RAIN...WITH SOME LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW FROPA...AND WITH
THE FORECAST REGION UNDER NORTH FLOW MOST OF THE DAY
TUESDAY...BACKED OFF MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM MOS
NUMBERS. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH TEMPS
REMAINING CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS. THEN A SECOND FRONT WILL SAG
SOUTH FROM CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.
EXPECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THESE PERIODS...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN SECTIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FIRST 24 HOURS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR/ISOLATED IFR THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS ARE STILL SLOW TO
BREAK UP THIS EVENING...THOUGH CLEARING IS DEVELOPING AROUND THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. EXPECT CEILINGS 25-3500 FT OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BEFORE ALL SITES LIFT TO VFR AND BEGIN TO CLEAR. WINDS
TONIGHT ARE GENERALLY NNW AND WILL BE 8KT OR LESS. VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TOMORROW WITH FEW TO SCATTERED CIGS AT 060. WIND WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY BY 12Z AND INCREASE BY 14Z TO 8-12KT WITH HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE AT KMSS AND KBTV AFTER 16Z.
OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SATURDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE UNDER GENERAL REGIME OF HIGH
PRESSURE. INCREASING CLOUDS HIGH POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE TO OUR NORTH. MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL PASSAGE. OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE AT KMPV AND
KSLK. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...MB
AVIATION...AMF/MB
000
FXUS61 KALY 070208
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
908 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR BY MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY WHICH WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE. IT
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO LOWER TEMPS SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING AND CLEAR
THINGS OUT A LITTLE QUICKER AS LATEST SAT PICS SHOW AREA OF STRATO
CU SHRINKING. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS BY 2 TO 5 DEGREES AS H8 TEMPS -5
TO -8 C ACRS FA THIS EVENING AND WITH CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS
AND A FRESH LIGHT SNOW COVER ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TEMPS
WILL DROP INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S ACRS MOST OF THE FA.
THE FOLLOWING IS FROM THE PREVIOUS AFD ISSUED AT 429 PM EST...
WALL OF CLOUDS REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME BREAKS AND PATCHES OF CLEAR SKY WEST AND
UPWIND OF THE REGION WHICH ARE LIKELY TO COME ACROSS THE REGION
LATER THIS EVENING. THE 12Z GFS SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON
SKY COVER OVERNIGHT. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGH MID
MORNING SATURDAY. WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM FOR THE MIN
TEMPERATURES...BUT RAISED THEM SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS AS
OBSERVED DEWPOINTS WERE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
DO NOT EXPECT ANY SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES THIS EVENING OR OVER
NIGHT AS NOTHING INDICATED ON ANY OBS UPSTREAM.
USED ADJUSTED MET/MOS GUIDANCE FOR WINDS WITH SOME SMOOTHING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS AND NCEP ANALYSIS INDICATE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR CAPE HATTERAS SATURDAY MORNING...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS
SOUTHWESTERLY FROM THE GULF COAST STATES NORTHWARD ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. THE HIGH CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY...WITH A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION. USED A 50/50 BLEND OF THE MAV/MOS AND MET/MOS FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES. TIME SERIES PROFILE INDICATES WE MAY SEE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS SATURDAY...BUT EVEN IF IT PANS OUT WE WOULD STILL GET
FILTERED SUN. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER
40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT TO THE LOW 50S IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY 8 TO 12 MPH.
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS
SWINGING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY. IT WILL NOT
BE NEARLY AS COLD AS WINDS WILL BE 5 TO 10 MPH. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 30S.
WITH A WARMER START...AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE COOLER REGIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...TO THE LOW 60S IN THE HUDSON
AND LOWER HOUSATONIC RIVER VALLEYS.
IT WILL CONTINUE DRY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL HIGH PRESSURE WITH A COUPLE OF TROUGHS BRINGING A CHC OF
PRECIP MAINLY TUESDAY AND FRIDAY. TO START THE PERIOD...SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD GRADUALLY SLIDES EASTWARD INTO
THE ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NOT MUCH CONTINUITY AMONG
MODELS WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHS. ECMWF
THE SLOWER SOLUTION WITH REGARDS TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...
MOVING PRECIP INTO THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
GFS BRINGS PRECIP INTO THE NW PORTIONS OF CWA MONDAY NIGHT...DRYING
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA ON TUESDAY. WITH MIN TEMPS DIPPING INTO
THE UPPER 20S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED AT AND ABOVE 2KFT...AND RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW BEGINNING
AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1.5KFT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE MORE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
THE MAX TEMPS IN THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOUT 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...QUICKLY COOLING TO AROUND NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY
AFTER THE FIRST COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FROM THERE...MAX TEMPS
WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS...DECREASING TO AROUND NORMAL IN THE LOW
30S THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD THROUGH 00Z
SUNDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE KGFL WHERE SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT MAY RESULT IN SOME MVFR CONDITIONS AS
VSBYS DROP TO AROUND 5SM WITH SOME MIST FOG. GENERALLY BKN-OVC050
STRATO CU WILL GRADUALLY ERODE OVERNIGHT WITH SOME HIGH CIRRUS FOR
THE LATE NIGHT PERIOD. ON SATURDAY EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUN WITH
JUST SCT250 FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
SURFACE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT EXCEPT AT KGFL WHERE
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 6 KTS WILL CONTINUE FOR AWHILE LONGER THIS
EVENING. ON SATURDAY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 6 TO
8 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT...MVFR/IFR FOG A STRONG POSSIBILITY.
SUN-WED...VFR...NO WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 80 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES COOL AND APPROACH THE DEWPOINT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING TO LESS THAN 5 MPH. UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES RH
VALUES WILL DECREASE TO BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT BY MIDDAY
SATURDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 6 AND 12 MPH. UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THE RH WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX ACROSS THE REGION IS LESS
THAN 200.
THE FIRE WEATHER SEASON ENDS TODAY. THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
OF THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED...ALONG
WITH THE TABULAR FIRE WEATHER FORECASTS (FWF) AND THE FIRE
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS (FWM). THE FIRE WEATHER GRAPHICAL FORECASTS
AND IMAGES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ISSUED AND MAY BE FOUND ON OUR WEB
SITE. SPOT FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AVAILABLE UPON REQUEST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
THE LAST EVENT BROUGHT VERY LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION WHICH CAUSED
A FEW RIVERS TO STOP RECEDING. HOWEVER THEY WILL BEGIN TO RECEDE
LATER TODAY...AND DEFINITELY DO SO AS THINGS COOL OFF TONIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES GO WELL BELOW FREEZING. SOME SNOW IS LIKELY TO MELT
SATURDAY...BUT WHATEVER DOES IS LIKELY TO JUST SEEP INTO THE GROUND
WITH LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON THE RIVERS.
ASIDE FROM SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES TODAY...THE WEATHER
WILL BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RCK
NEAR TERM...RCK/11
SHORT TERM...RCK
LONG TERM...KGS
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...RCK
HYDROLOGY...RCK
| 
