000
FXUS61 KBTV 220931
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
431 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY ON INTO
MONDAY...BEFORE PUSHING OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A COUPLE OF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE NORTHEAST BY MIDWEEK...RIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 405 AM EST SUNDAY...ANOTHER NICE DAY ON TAP FOR THE ENTIRE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST. LL CLD COVER
FROM INVERSION WILL BREAK UP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ALLOWING FOR
SKIES TO GO SUNNY/MSUNNY. FG AROUND THE CWA WHERE BREAKS IN CLD
COVER IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF W/ SUNRISE. WARMING ALOFT AT 850MB
WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AT HIR ELEV THAN VALLEY
LOCALES. THIS WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE DACKS. RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT OFFSHORE TNGT...BUT CLR AND CD CONDITIONS OF TAP FOR THE
CWA. SOME LGT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN ZONES TOWARDS
MORNING AS SFC HIGH SETS UP OFFSHORE. CLD COVER FROM SFC LOW OFF
THE SE COAST MAY FILTER INTO SOUTHERN VT TOWARDS MORNING...BUT NO
PRECIP EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EST SUNDAY...SFC LOW OFF THE SE COAST WILL MV N ON
MONDAY...THEN SHUNTED OUT TO SEA DUE TO BLOCKING RIDGE OVER AREA.
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF VT WILL SEE SOME INCR IN CLD COVER FROM
NORTHERN FRINGE OF SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTNOON/EVENING
HRS. MDLS DO DIFFER SOME ON EXTENT OF PUSH N INTO NEW ENG/N
NY...WITH EVEN THE SUGGESTION OF WK UPPER TROUGH ON WEST SIDE OF
RIDGE WORKING INTO N NY. MOISTURE FEED PROBABLE TO ENHANCE THIS
FEATURE FROM E FLOW OF TWO SYSTEMS OFF THE COAST. THINKING THIS
UPPER TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT QPF POTENTIAL A BIT OVERDONE BUT WILL
PUT IN SL CHANCE OVERNGT MON AND TAPER OFF TUESDAY. AN APPROACHING
LOW FROM THE WEST WILL HAVE ITS LEADING CLD EDGE WORK INTO WESTERN
CWA LATE MONDAY NGT INTO TUES. WK SFC RIDGE MAY REBUILD OVER AREA
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS MON NGT...SO WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR
GUIDANCE WHICH COULD BRING A FEW --SW/-RW AS TEMPS DROP...AND ANY
LEFTOVER PRECIP TUESDAY TO FALL AS RAIN W/ SFC FLOW BECM MORE
SOUTHERLY W/ APPROACH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 429 AM EST SUNDAY...THE ABOVE MENTIONED COASTAL LOW WILL BE
PULLING OUT OF THE AREA WITH ONLY A SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR WRAP
AROUND SHOWERS IN SE VT. ON WEDNESDAY A FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...SPREADING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN INTO
WESTERN NY WED...AND INTO VT WED NIGHT. THE FRONT LINGERS OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
THANKSGIVING. PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN WITH SW FLOW MAINTAINING
ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPS. THE FORECAST GETS INTERESTING FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...AS UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND GUIDANCE
DEVELOPS A SFC COASTAL LOW. PLACEMENT AND TIMING ARE NOT IN
SYNC...AND THUS HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW FRIDAY.
RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN TOO WARM FOR SNOW IN
THE VALLEYS THROUGH FRIDAY. BUT POTENTIAL FOR SNOW INCREASES WITH
COLDER AIR MOVING IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SAT. THERE ARE LARGE
DISCREPANCIES WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SFC LOW...BOTH IN DEPTH
OF LOW AND POSITION...SO AM HESITANT TO PLAY UP IMPACTS SINCE WE
ARE STILL ABOUT 5-6 DAYS OUT AND MUCH CAN CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...GENERALLY MVFR CIGS TONIGHT AS A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HAS TRAPPED A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AT
LOW LEVELS. EXCEPTION IS KRUT WITH CLEAR SKIES...BUT THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR BR FORMATION WITH MVFR VIS BETEEN 07-13Z. EXPECT
CEILINGS AND ANY BR TO SLOWLY THIN AND LIFT AND ALL SITES WILL
RETURN TO VFR BY 15Z..WITH SKIES CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING CLOUDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR DIMINISHING TO MVFR IN RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...AMF
AVIATION...AMF/MB

000
FXUS61 KBTV 220905
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
405 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY ON INTO
MONDAY...BEFORE PUSHING OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A COUPLE OF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE NORTHEAST BY MIDWEEK...RIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 405 AM EST SUNDAY...ANOTHER NICE DAY ON TAP FOR THE ENTIRE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST. LL CLD COVER
FROM INVERSION WILL BREAK UP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ALLOWING FOR
SKIES TO GO SUNNY/MSUNNY. FG AROUND THE CWA WHERE BREAKS IN CLD
COVER IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF W/ SUNRISE. WARMING ALOFT AT 850MB
WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AT HIR ELEV THAN VALLEY
LOCALES. THIS WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE DACKS. RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT OFFSHORE TNGT...BUT CLR AND CD CONDITIONS OF TAP FOR THE
CWA. SOME LGT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN ZONES TOWARDS
MORNING AS SFC HIGH SETS UP OFFSHORE. CLD COVER FROM SFC LOW OFF
THE SE COAST MAY FILTER INTO SOUTHERN VT TOWARDS MORNING...BUT NO
PRECIP EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EST SUNDAY...SFC LOW OFF THE SE COAST WILL MV N ON
MONDAY...THEN SHUNTED OUT TO SEA DUE TO BLOCKING RIDGE OVER AREA.
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF VT WILL SEE SOME INCR IN CLD COVER FROM
NORTHERN FRINGE OF SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTNOON/EVENING
HRS. MDLS DO DIFFER SOME ON EXTENT OF PUSH N INTO NEW ENG/N
NY...WITH EVEN THE SUGGESTION OF WK UPPER TROUGH ON WEST SIDE OF
RIDGE WORKING INTO N NY. MOISTURE FEED PROBABLE TO ENHANCE THIS
FEATURE FROM E FLOW OF TWO SYSTEMS OFF THE COAST. THINKING THIS
UPPER TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT QPF POTENTIAL A BIT OVERDONE BUT WILL
PUT IN SL CHANCE OVERNGT MON AND TAPER OFF TUESDAY. AN APPROACHING
LOW FROM THE WEST WILL HAVE ITS LEADING CLD EDGE WORK INTO WESTERN
CWA LATE MONDAY NGT INTO TUES. WK SFC RIDGE MAY REBUILD OVER AREA
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS MON NGT...SO WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR
GUIDANCE WHICH COULD BRING A FEW --SW/-RW AS TEMPS DROP...AND ANY
LEFTOVER PRECIP TUESDAY TO FALL AS RAIN W/ SFC FLOW BECM MORE
SOUTHERLY W/ APPROACH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST SATURDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN TWO
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ON TUESDAY...WITH ONE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE COD AND ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
MODELS SHOW AREA WILL HAVE A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...EXTENDING INTO MIDDAY ON
WEDNESDAY. WILL GO WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH
MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
TUESDAY FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. HAVE GONE
BELOW GMOS POP GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS
FOR WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS.

THANKSGIVING DAY...MODELS SHOW A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED.
HAVE PUT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON THANKSGIVING DAY...
BUT GENERALLY FEEL THE DAYTIME WILL BE MAINLY DRY. HAVE GONE BELOW
GMOS POPS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY. GFS MODEL IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF
MODEL IN BRINGING THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED UPPER LOW EASTWARD.
GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD AND
BUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE EAST OF IT...WOULD TEND TO FAVOR THE
SLOWER ECMWF...AS FEEL THE GFS LOOKE A TAD TOO FAST. WILL MENTION
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL MENTION RAIN OR SNOW ON FRIDAY...
AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH ALOFT FOR
SOME RAIN ON FRIDAY...BUT CHANGING TO SNOW LATER IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
THE ECMWF SHOWS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN DYNAMIC COOLING ALOFT. ECMWF SUGGESTS
SOME SIGNIFICANT WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. HOWEVER...GIVEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS FAIR AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...GENERALLY MVFR CIGS TONIGHT AS A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HAS TRAPPED A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AT
LOW LEVELS. EXCEPTION IS KRUT WITH CLEAR SKIES...BUT THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR BR FORMATION WITH MVFR VIS BETEEN 07-13Z. EXPECT
CEILINGS AND ANY BR TO SLOWLY THIN AND LIFT AND ALL SITES WILL
RETURN TO VFR BY 15Z..WITH SKIES CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING CLOUDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR DIMINISHING TO MVFR IN RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...AMF/MB

000
FXUS61 KALY 220825
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
325 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE NORTHEAST TO START THE
WEEK. IT WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES AND OFFSHORE LATE MONDAY.
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE FIRST
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE CAROLINA COAST
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEN MIDWEEK A SERIES OF MUCH
STRONGER STORMS WILL MOVE THOUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL KEEP
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THIS MORNING. IN
FACT...WHERE SOME BREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED...CLOUDS MAY ACTUALLY
REDEVELOP AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE ONCE SHALLOW MIXING
DEVELOPS. EVENTUALLY...AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS INTO A MORE NE
DIRECTION...SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR N/E
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...ESP FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. CLOUDS MAY
PERSIST LONGER...PERHAPS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION...FROM THE SW DACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
INTO THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND NE CATSKILLS.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS...GIVEN THE EXPECTATION FOR SHALLOW MIXING...MAINLY
TO 925-950 MB...WE EXPECT MAXES TO BE A BIT COOLER THAN SAT...ESP
GIVEN A SLIGHTLY COLDER START...ALONG WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR
CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING. SO...GENERALLY SIDED CLOSE TO THE COOLER
MET MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY REACHING AROUND 50 WITHIN MUCH OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...EXCEPT LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WITH MAINLY 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITHIN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PERIOD STARTS WITH RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE
ATMOSPHERE WITH 572DM HIGH EVEN AT 500HPA. 500HPA TROF LINGERS
SOUTH OF RGN FM MASON DIXON LINE TO LONG IS NY WHILE IMPRESSIVE
SFC HIGH DOMINATES THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE NATION AND IS
CENTERED OVER THE MARITIMES. WHILE THE DIRTY HIGH PHASE WITH
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION WILL HAVE ENDED EARLY SUNDAY
THE NEW GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS AND
SHOWS MARINE LAYER MOISTURE OR FOG/STRATUS CREEPING BACK UP THE
HUDSON VALLEY EVEN AS EARLY AS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THE WITH ALL THE MODELS AND STATISTICAL GUID KEEPING THE
FLOW EAST TO NORTHEAST BELOW THE INVERSION LAYER...WILL BRING
CLOUDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THE NAM IS THE ONLY LESS AGGRESSIVE
MODEL WITH ADVECTING THIS MARINE LAYER MOISTURE WHILE THE
WRF/GEM/GFS SHOW IT BLO 900HPA.

MUCH LIKE LAST WEEK WHEN THIS SAME SCENARIO OCCURRED CLOUDS SHOULD
BARELY MAKE ALBANY MONDAY MORNING AND THESE MAY ERODE FOR A TIME.
FROM ALB N & W WILL STAY FAIR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY TILL BOUNDARY
LEVEL FLOW TURNS SE-S AND MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH. IN SOUTHEAST
LOOKING AT AREAS OF MORNING STRATUS AND FOG THAT MAY OR MAY NOT
BURN OFF BEFORE THE CLOUDS FROM NEXT SYSTEM OVERSPREAD THOSE
AREAS.

MARINE LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD BE WEAK TILL 500HPA TROF
THAT WAS LAYING DORMANT ACROSS THE MID ATLC BEGINS MOVES NORTH
INTO OUR REGION MONDAY. MODELS SUGGEST A COASTAL DEVELOPMENT BUT
ITS WELL OFFSHORE AND ITS MAIN IMPACT IS TO ENHANCE THE MARINE
LAYER INFLOW. THIS MOISTURE AND THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL 500HPA
SHORT WAVES WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA AND AN INCR CHC
OF -RN AND DZ MONDAY NIGHT AND TUES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST.

INITIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT THE SFC LOW DEPARTS WELL OFFSHORE. 500HPA
RIDGE REBUILDS ALONG THE SEABOARD.  WELL TO OUR WEST THE STAGE IS
BEING SET FOR A COMPLEX PATTERN TO END THE WEEK. TUES NT WERE
STUCK WITH MORE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND NOT MUCH MORE THAN
DRIZZLE AND CLOUDS.

MEANWHILE TUESDAY NIGHT TWO CUTOFFS WILL BE SETTING UP. ONE IN
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THE OTHER IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. LOOKING
AT THE 1.5PVU SFCS THE ORIGINS OF THESE SYSTEMS ARE THREE
PART. 1) JUST OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA ALASKA PANHANDLE
COAST...2) IN THE FAST FLOW IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC NORTH OF
HAWAII AND 3) ALONG ALASKA`S BROOKS RANGE. OBVIOUSLY MANY
QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT THE PHASING PROCESS AND THE RESULTANT SFC
WEATHER. MORE IN THIS IN LONG TERM SECTION.

THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THERES A FAIR AMOUNT OF MODEL CONSISTENCY
EXCEPT WITH REGARD TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THE MARINE LAYER INFLOW
MONDAY AS DISCUSSED ABOVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE RESULT OF THE ORGANIZATION OF
TWO MAJOR CUT OFFS AND THEIR INTERACTION AND EVENTUAL MERGER. GIVEN
THE LOCATIONS OF THE VORTICITY THAT WILL GIVE RISE TO THIS SCENARIO
(GIVEN AT END OF SHORT TERM)...MUCH REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND SUBJECT
TO CHANGE BASED ON THE PHASING TIME...DEGREE...LOCATION AND THEN THE
ULTIMATE SFC RESPONSE.

THERE ARE SOME GENERAL THEMES IN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. ONE CUT
OFF OVER THE MID WEST LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WEDNESDAY. THE SECOND DIVES SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA. THEY DUMBBELL AROUND EACH OTHER AND MERGE BY THEN END OF
THE WEEK. HWVR POSITIONS RANGE FM CENTERED N OF YUL (GEM)..TO NJ
(GFS) TO OHIO (ECMWF).

WHAT IS MOST CONCRETE AT THIS POINT IS WEDNESDAY THE FIRST 500HPA
CUT OFF MOVES FM MIDWEST INTO GRT LAKES AND PUSHES AN OCCLUDED
FRONT INTO NYS LATE IN THE DAY. THE GFS/GEM AND ECMWF SHOW THIS
SCENARIO WITH THAT CANADIAN ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER WITH PCPN. WILL
KEEP IT DRY IN THE MORNING WITH CHC POPS AFTN AND WED NIGHT.

THE TIMING ISSUES BECOME MORE ACUTE FROM THURSDAY ON. THURSDAY
THE GFS PUTS FCA IN DRY SLOT AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING
ACROSS FCA. THE GEM/ECM BRING THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH.

IN SUMMARY THE LONG RANGE PERIOD GENERAL THEMES ARE FAIRLY
CLEAR...BUT TIMING IS ALL OVER. OTHER THAN WED WILL LEAVE MUCH OF
THE EARLIER HPC BASED LONG RANGE IN PLACE WITH JUST SOME TWEAKS TO
IMPROVE COORDINATION. TO CHANGE IT TO GMOS AT THIS TIME WILL JUST
INCREASE THE FLIP FLOP FACTOR.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.
TRICKY CALL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z/SUN...AS HIGHER
STRATUS DECK AS ERODED...LEAVING SKIES MAINLY CLEAR...AND WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND A SOMEWHAT MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...MAY PROMOTE
PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOWER CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...LATEST 11-3.9
IR SATELLITE INDICATES PREVIOUS STRATUS DECK EXPANDING BACK TO THE
W...AS WINDS AROUND 925-975 MB VEER INTO THE NE. BOTTOM LINE...LOW
CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES OVER
THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS...HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE HIGHER CLOUD DECK.
FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SEVERAL TEMPOS FOR IFR CONDITIONS...MOST
LIKELY AROUND 12Z...ESP AT KGFL AND KALB.

AFTER 12Z/SUN...ANY IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LIFT INTO MVFR
CIGS...WHICH COULD LAST UNTIL 15Z-17Z. THEREAFTER...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
MVFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS MAY REDEVELOP TOWARD 06Z/MON.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...MAINLY FROM THE N TO NE AT LESS THAN 5
KT THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND NE TO E AT 5-10 KT DURING SUNDAY. WINDS
WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NITE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.
THU...MVFR/IFR...RAIN POSSIBLE LATE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST INTO MONDAY RIVERS
WILL CONTINUE RECEDE THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT THREAT OF RAIN WILL
BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS FOR 0.10 TO
0.30 INCHES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. THIS EVENT SHOULD HAVE MODEST
IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. FURTHER OUT AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF
WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KALY 220821
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
321 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE NORTHEAST TO START THE
WEEK. IT WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES AND OFFSHORE LATE MONDAY.
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE FIRST
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE CAROLINA COAST
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEN MIDWEEK A SERIES OF MUCH
STRONGER STORMS WILL MOVE THOUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL KEEP
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THIS MORNING. IN
FACT...WHERE SOME BREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED...CLOUDS MAY ACTUALLY
REDEVELOP AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE ONCE SHALLOW MIXING
DEVELOPS. EVENTUALLY...AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS INTO A MORE NE
DIRECTION...SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR N/E
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...ESP FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. CLOUDS MAY
PERSIST LONGER...PERHAPS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION...FROM THE SW DACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
INTO THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND NE CATSKILLS.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS...GIVEN THE EXPECTATION FOR SHALLOW MIXING...MAINLY
TO 925-950 MB...WE EXPECT MAXES TO BE A BIT COOLER THAN SAT...ESP
GIVEN A SLIGHTLY COLDER START...ALONG WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR
CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING. SO...GENERALLY SIDED CLOSE TO THE COOLER
MET MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY REACHING AROUND 50 WITHIN MUCH OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...EXCEPT LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WITH MAINLY 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITHIN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... PERIOD
STARTS WITH RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE WITH
572DM HIGH EVEN AT 500HPA. 500HPA TROF LINGERS SOUTH OF RGN FM
MASON DIXON LINE TO LONG IS NY WHILE IMPRESSIVE SFC HIGH DOMINATES
THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE NATION AND IS CENTERED OVER THE
MARITIMES. WHILE THE DIRTY HIGH PHASE WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER
THE INVERSION WILL HAVE ENDED EARLY SUNDAY THE NEW GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS AND SHOWS MARINE LAYER
MOISTURE OR FOG/STRATUS CREEPING BACK UP THE HUDSON VALLEY EVEN AS
EARLY AS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE WITH ALL THE
MODELS AND STATISTICAL GUID KEEPING THE FLOW EAST TO NORTHEAST
BELOW THE INVERSION LAYER...WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
THE NAM IS THE ONLY LESS AGGRESSIVE MODEL WITH ADVECTING THIS
MARINE LAYER MOISTURE WHILE THE WRF/GEM/GFS SHOW IT BLO 900HPA.

MUCH LIKE LAST WEEK WHEN THIS SAME SCENARIO OCCURRED CLOUDS SHOULD
BARELY MAKE ALBANY MONDAY MORNING AND THESE MAY ERODE FOR A TIME.
FROM ALB N & W WILL STAY FAIR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY TILL BOUNDARY
LEVEL FLOW TURNS SE-S AND MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH. IN SOUTHEAST
LOOKING AT AREAS OF MORNING STRATUS AND FOG THAT MAY OR MAY NOT
BURN OFF BEFORE THE CLOUDS FROM NEXT SYSTEM OVERSPREAD THOSE
AREAS.

MARINE LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD BE WEAK TILL 500HPA TROF
THAT WAS LAYING DORMANT ACROSS THE MID ATLC BEGINS MOVES NORTH
INTO OUR REGION MONDAY. MODELS SUGGEST A COASTAL DEVELOPMENT BUT
ITS WELL OFFSHORE AND ITS MAIN IMPACT IS TO ENHANCE THE MARINE
LAYER INFLOW. THIS MOISTURE AND THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL 500HPA
SHORT WAVES WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA AND AN INCR CHC
OF -RN AND DZ MONDAY NIGHT AND TUES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST.

INITIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT THE SFC LOW DEPARTS WELL OFFSHORE. 500HPA
RIDGE REBUILDS ALONG THE SEABOARD.  WELL TO OUR WEST THE STAGE IS
BEING SET FOR A COMPLEX PATTERN TO END THE WEEK. TUES NT WERE
STUCK WITH MORE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND NOT MUCH MORE THAN
DRIZZLE AND CLOUDS.

MEANWHILE TUESDAY NIGHT TWO CUTOFFS WILL BE SETTING UP. ONE IN
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THE OTHER IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. LOOKING
AT THE 1.5PVU SFCS THE ORIGINS OF THESE SYSTEMS ARE THREE
PART. 1) JUST OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA ALASKA PANHANDLE
COAST...2) IN THE FAST FLOW IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC NORTH OF
HAWAII AND 3) ALONG ALASKA`S BROOKS RANGE. OBVIOUSLY MANY
QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT THE PHASING PROCESS AND THE RESULTANT SFC
WEATHER. MORE IN THIS IN LONG TERM SECTION.

THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THERES A FAIR AMOUNT OF MODEL CONSISTENCY
EXCEPT WITH REGARD TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THE MARINE LAYER INFLOW
MONDAY AS DISCUSSED ABOVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE RESULT OF THE ORGANIZATION OF
TWO MAJOR CUT OFFS AND THEIR INTERACTION AND EVENTUAL MERGER. GIVEN
THE LOCATIONS OF THE VORTICITY THAT WILL GIVE RISE TO THIS SCENARIO
(GIVEN AT END OF SHORT TERM)...MUCH REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND SUBJECT
TO CHANGE BASED ON THE PHASING TIME...DEGREE...LOCATION AND THEN THE
ULTIMATE SFC RESPONSE.

THERE ARE SOME GENERAL THEMES IN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. ONE CUT
OFF OVER THE MID WEST LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WEDNESDAY. THE SECOND DIVES SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA. THEY DUMBBELL AROUND EACH OTHER AND MERGE BY THEN END OF
THE WEEK. HWVR POSITIONS RANGE FM CENTERED N OF YUL (GEM)..TO NJ
(GFS) TO OHIO (ECMWF).

WHAT IS MOST CONCRETE AT THIS POINT IS WEDNESDAY THE FIRST 500HPA
CUT OFF MOVES FM MIDWEST INTO GRT LAKES AND PUSHES AN OCCLUDED
FRONT INTO NYS LATE IN THE DAY. THE GFS/GEM AND ECMWF SHOW THIS
SCENARIO WITH THAT CANADIAN ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER WITH PCPN. WILL
KEEP IT DRY IN THE MORNING WITH CHC POPS AFTN AND WED NIGHT.

THE TIMING ISSUES BECOME MORE ACUTE FROM THURSDAY ON. THURSDAY
THE GFS PUTS FCA IN DRY SLOT AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING
ACROSS FCA. THE GEM/ECM BRING THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH.

IN SUMMARY THE LONG RANGE PERIOD GENERAL THEMES ARE FAIRLY
CLEAR...BUT TIMING IS ALL OVER. OTHER THAN WED WILL LEAVE MUCH OF
THE EARLIER HPC BASED LONG RANGE IN PLACE WITH JUST SOME TWEAKS TO
IMPROVE COORDINATION. TO CHANGE IT TO GMOS AT THIS TIME WILL JUST
INCREASE THE FLIP FLOP FACTOR.

&&

AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. TRICKY
CALL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z/SUN...AS HIGHER STRATUS
DECK AS ERODED...LEAVING SKIES MAINLY CLEAR...AND WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND A SOMEWHAT MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...MAY PROMOTE PATCHY FOG
AND/OR LOWER CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...LATEST 11-3.9 IR
SATELLITE INDICATES PREVIOUS STRATUS DECK EXPANDING BACK TO THE
W...AS WINDS AROUND 925-975 MB VEER INTO THE NE. BOTTOM LINE...LOW
CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES OVER
THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS...HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE HIGHER CLOUD DECK.
FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SEVERAL TEMPOS FOR IFR CONDITIONS...MOST
LIKELY AROUND 12Z...ESP AT KGFL AND KALB.

AFTER 12Z/SUN...ANY IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LIFT INTO MVFR
CIGS...WHICH COULD LAST UNTIL 15Z-17Z. THEREAFTER...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
MVFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS MAY REDEVELOP TOWARD 06Z/MON.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...MAINLY FROM THE N TO NE AT LESS THAN 5
KT THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND NE TO E AT 5-10 KT DURING SUNDAY. WINDS
WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NITE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST INTO MONDAY RIVERS
WILL CONTINUE RECEDE THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT THREAT OF RAIN WILL
BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS FOR 0.10 TO
0.70 INCHES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. BUT ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH THE STORM TRACK AND AMOUNTS COULD VARY. THIS EVENT
SHOULD HAVE MODEST IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. FURTHER OUT AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KALY 220644
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
144 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE NORTHEAST TO START THE
WEEK. IT WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES AND OFFSHORE LATE MONDAY.
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE FIRST
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE CAROLINA COAST
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEN MIDWEEK A SERIES OF MUCH
STRONGER STORMS WILL MOVE THOUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL KEEP
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THIS MORNING. IN
FACT...WHERE SOME BREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED...CLOUDS MAY ACTUALLY
REDEVELOP AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE ONCE SHALLOW MIXING
DEVELOPS. EVENTUALLY...AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS INTO A MORE NE
DIRECTION...SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR N/E
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...ESP FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. CLOUDS MAY
PERSIST LONGER...PERHAPS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION...FROM THE SW DACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
INTO THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND NE CATSKILLS.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS...GIVEN THE EXPECTATION FOR SHALLOW MIXING...MAINLY
TO 925-950 MB...WE EXPECT MAXES TO BE A BIT COOLER THAN SAT...ESP
GIVEN A SLIGHTLY COLDER START...ALONG WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR
CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING. SO...GENERALLY SIDED CLOSE TO THE COOLER
MET MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY REACHING AROUND 50 WITHIN MUCH OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...EXCEPT LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WITH MAINLY 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITHIN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PERIOD STARTS WITH RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE
WITH 572DM HIGH EVEN AT 500HPA. 500HPA TROF LINGERS SOUTH OF RGN
FM MASON DIXON LINE TO LONG IS NY WHILE IMPRESSIVE SFC HIGH
DOMINATES THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE NATION AND IS CENTERED OVER
THE MARITIMES. WHILE THE DIRTY HIGH PHASE WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED
UNDER THE INVERSION WILL HAVE ENDED EARLY SUNDAY THE NEW GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS AND SHOWS MARINE LAYER
MOISTURE OR FOG/STRATUS CREEPING BACK UP THE HUDSON VALLEY EVEN AS
EARLY AS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE WITH ALL THE
MODELS AND STATISTICAL GUID KEEPING THE FLOW EAST TO NORTHEAST
BELOW THE INVERSION LAYER...WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
THE NAM IS THE ONLY LESS AGGRESSIVE MODEL WITH ADVECTING THIS
MARINE LAYER MOISTURE WHILE THE WRF/GEM/GFS SHOW IT BLO 900HPA.

MUCH LIKE LAST WEEK WHEN THIS SAME SCENARIO OCCURRED CLOUDS SHOULD
BARELY MAKE ALBANY MONDAY MORNING AND THESE MAY ERODE FOR A TIME.
FROM ALB N & W WILL STAY FAIR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY TILL BOUNDARY
LEVEL FLOW TURNS SE-S AND MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH. IN SOUTHEAST
LOOKING AT AREAS OF MORNING STRATUS AND FOG THAT MAY OR MAY NOT
BURN OFF BEFORE THE CLOUDS FROM NEXT SYSTEM OVERSPREAD THOSE
AREAS.

MARINE LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD BE WEAK TILL 500HPA TROF
THAT WAS LAYING DORMANT ACROSS THE MID ATLC BEGINS MOVES NORTH
INTO OUR REGION MONDAY. MODELS SUGGEST A COASTAL DEVELOPMENT BUT
ITS WELL OFFSHORE AND ITS MAIN IMPACT IS TO ENHANCE THE MARINE
LAYER INFLOW. THIS MOISTURE AND THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL 500HPA
SHORT WAVES WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA AND AN INCR CHC
OF -RN AND DZ MONDAY NIGHT AND TUES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST.

INITIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT THE SFC LOW DEPARTS WELL OFFSHORE. 500HPA
RIDGE REBUILDS ALONG THE SEABOARD.  WELL TO OUR WEST THE STAGE IS
BEING SET FOR A COMPLEX PATTERN TO END THE WEEK. TUES NT WERE
STUCK WITH MORE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND NOT MUCH MORE THAN
DRIZZLE AND CLOUDS.

MEANWHILE TUESDAY NIGHT TWO CUTOFFS WILL BE SETTING UP. ONE IN
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THE OTHER IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. LOOKING
AT THE 1.5PVU SFCS THE ORIGINS OF THESE SYSTEMS ARE THREE
PART. 1) JUST OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA ALASKA PANHANDLE
COAST...2) IN THE FAST FLOW IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC NORTH OF
HAWAII AND 3) ALONG ALASKA`S BROOKS RANGE. OBVIOUSLY MANY
QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT THE PHASING PROCESS AND THE RESULTANT SFC
WEATHER. MORE IN THIS IN LONG TERM SECTION.

THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THERES A FAIR AMOUNT OF MODEL CONSISTENCY
EXCEPT WITH REGARD TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THE MARINE LAYER INFLOW
MONDAY AS DISCUSSED ABOVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT THE LINGERING 500HPA TROF FROM THE MID
ATLC STATES PHASES WITH A TROF LIFTING NE FM GULF COAST STATES. STILL
CONSIDERABLE VARIATION IN THE PHASING AND THE SFC RESPONSE...BUT
GFS/ECMWF AND NAM PRODUCE A COASTAL LOW MONDAY NT THAT LIFTS NE.
THE MDL TRACKS ARE STILL QUITE VARIED. THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP FCA ON
PERIPHERY OF SYSTEM WITH THREAT OF ONLY LT RN IN SE FCA...THE NAM
A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AND FURTHER WEST. BOTTOM LINE WILL
INTRODUCE CHC POPS MON NT INTO TUES MAINLY IN SE HALF OF FCA.

ONCE THIS FIRST SYSTEM PASSES THERE`S AS MUCH AGREEMENT AS YOU
USUALLY GET IN THE EFP FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THERE ARE FEW
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BWTN HPC...THE ECMWF THAT JUST CAME IN AND
THE GFS. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC GRIDS FOR EFP.

IT APPEARS THIS EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A GAME CHANGER. AFTER
TUESDAYS WEAK COASTAL DEPARTS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES PHASE INTO A
DEEP AND LARGE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS
ANOTHER CUTOFF ORGANIZES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THESE SYSTEMS
INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD CREATING A
DUMBELLING ACTION AROUND EACH OTHER OVER THE GRTLKS..MIDWEST AND
UPR GRT PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK TILL THEY PHASE INTO A MASSIVE
CUTOFF LOVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO END THE WEEK. THE MAIN STORM
TRACKS WILL PASS TO OUR WEST AT FIRST...WITH THE FINAL ONE A
COASTAL BY THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD AS
WE HEAD INTO THE THANKSGIVING TRAVEL AND HOLIDAY PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE SEVERAL FRONTAL PASSAGES AND THEIR BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN NR OR ABOVE NORMAL TILL THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN
IT WILL TURN NOTICEABLY COLDER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.

TRICKY CALL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z/SUN...AS HIGHER
STRATUS DECK AS ERODED...LEAVING SKIES MAINLY CLEAR...AND WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND A SOMEWHAT MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...MAY PROMOTE
PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOWER CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...LATEST
11-3.9 IR SATELLITE INDICATES PREVIOUS STRATUS DECK EXPANDING BACK
TO THE W...AS WINDS AROUND 925-975 MB VEER INTO THE NE. BOTTOM
LINE...LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP AT THE TAF
SITES OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS...HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE HIGHER
CLOUD DECK. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SEVERAL TEMPOS FOR IFR
CONDITIONS...MOST LIKELY AROUND 12Z...ESP AT KGFL AND KALB.

AFTER 12Z/SUN...ANY IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LIFT INTO MVFR
CIGS...WHICH COULD LAST UNTIL 15Z-17Z. THEREAFTER...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
MVFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS MAY REDEVELOP TOWARD 06Z/MON.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...MAINLY FROM THE N TO NE AT LESS THAN 5
KT THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND NE TO E AT 5-10 KT DURING SUNDAY. WINDS
WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NITE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST INTO MONDAY RIVERS
WILL CONTINUE RECEDE THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT THREAT OF RAIN WILL
BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS FOR 0.10 TO
0.70 INCHES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. BUT ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH THE STORM TRACK AND AMOUNTS COULD VARY. THIS EVENT
SHOULD HAVE MODEST IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. FURTHER OUT AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 220622
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
122 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY STATES WILL
BUILD SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT AND SETTLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THEREFORE...OUTSIDE ANY LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING...EXPECT GENERALLY FAIR AND DRY WEATHER DURING
THE PERIOD AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE. THE NEXT CHANCE
OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR BY THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 850 PM EST SATURDAY...HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR PERSISTENT LAYER OF
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 FT AGL. WHILE
SIGNIFICANT CLEARING HAS OCCURRED THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND MUCH OF ERN/SERN VT...OVERCAST CONDITIONS PREVAIL
ACROSS ALL OF THE NRN ADIRONDACKS...THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND
PORTIONS OF N-CENTRAL AND NERN VT. WITH WEAK WINDS OVERNIGHT AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ELIMINATE EXISTING
CLOUDS TRAPPED BELOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. AS SUCH...HAVE
INCREASED CLOUDS FOR SEVERAL ADDITIONAL HRS...WITH A SLOW
DECREASING TREND TOWARD DAYBREAK. FOG MAY BE LIMITED ACROSS NRN NY
OWING TO OVC SKIES...BUT ELSEWHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE SMALL
/WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 30S/ AND SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL BE FAVORED...ESPECIALLY WITH LONG MID-NOVEMEBER NIGHT. PATCHY FOG
REMAINS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY MILD BY LATE NOVEMBER
STANDARDS...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
ACROSS MOST PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 217 PM EST SATURDAY...TRANQUIL AND MILD LATE FALL WEATHER THEN
CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM AS AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ATOP THE NORTHEAST DURING SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME
FRAME. THEREFORE EXPECT FAIR AND DRY CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG
WITH A FAIRLY WIDE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS. WITH SHALLOW NATURE OF
PBL THIS TIME OF YEAR DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RATHER UNIFORM...
SLIGHTLY MILDER PERHAPS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE SHALLOW PBL
MIXING MAY BE ABLE TO TAP INTO WARMER 925 MB TEMPS ALOFT. NIGHTTIME
LOWS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS...THOUGH WITH AT LEAST SOME
RADIATIVE EFFECTS EXPECTED...HAVE UNDERCUT MOS MINS TEMPS SLIGHTLY
DURING OVERNIGHT PERIODS.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...SOME DISAGREEMENT BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE MODELS
AS DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/WRN ATLANTIC ATTEMPTS TO
CREEP NORTHWARD BENEATH WESTERN EXTENSION OF DEPARTING RIDGE AXIS.
AT THIS TIME BELIEVE ANY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME
REACHING THIS FAR NORTH GIVEN PLACEMENT OF LL RIDGE AXIS...AND WITH
BROAD SUPPORT FROM THIS MORNINGS OP ECMWF RUN AND GFS MEAN
ENSEMBLES HAVE KEPT SENSIBLE CONDS ESSENTIALLY DRY THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY. MID TO UPPER LVL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE
HOWEVER IN UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...THUS HAVE KEPT OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS SLIGHTLY MILDER THAN PRIOR COUNTERPARTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST SATURDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN TWO
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ON TUESDAY...WITH ONE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE COD AND ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
MODELS SHOW AREA WILL HAVE A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...EXTENDING INTO MIDDAY ON
WEDNESDAY. WILL GO WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH
MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
TUESDAY FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. HAVE GONE
BELOW GMOS POP GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS
FOR WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS.

THANKSGIVING DAY...MODELS SHOW A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED.
HAVE PUT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON THANKSGIVING DAY...
BUT GENERALLY FEEL THE DAYTIME WILL BE MAINLY DRY. HAVE GONE BELOW
GMOS POPS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY. GFS MODEL IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF
MODEL IN BRINGING THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED UPPER LOW EASTWARD.
GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD AND
BUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE EAST OF IT...WOULD TEND TO FAVOR THE
SLOWER ECMWF...AS FEEL THE GFS LOOKE A TAD TOO FAST. WILL MENTION
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL MENTION RAIN OR SNOW ON FRIDAY...
AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH ALOFT FOR
SOME RAIN ON FRIDAY...BUT CHANGING TO SNOW LATER IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
THE ECMWF SHOWS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN DYNAMIC COOLING ALOFT. ECMWF SUGGESTS
SOME SIGNIFICANT WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. HOWEVER...GIVEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS FAIR AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...GENERALLY MVFR CIGS TONIGHT AS A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HAS TRAPPED A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AT
LOW LEVELS. EXCEPTION IS KRUT WITH CLEAR SKIES...BUT THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR BR FORMATION WITH MVFR VIS BETEEN 07-13Z. EXPECT
CEILINGS AND ANY BR TO SLOWLY THIN AND LIFT AND ALL SITES WILL
RETURN TO VFR BY 15Z..WITH SKIES CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING CLOUDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR DIMINISHING TO MVFR IN RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...AMF/MB

000
FXUS61 KALY 220532
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1232 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE NORTHEAST TO START THE
WEEK. IT WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES AND OFFSHORE LATE
MONDAY. CLOUDS WILL HANG IN OVERNIGHT WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY BUT
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR TOWARD DAYBREAK. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATER IN THE WEEK
AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES AFFECT THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD EXCEPT FOR A
SMALL PATCH OF CLOUDS JUST WEST OF THE NORTHERN TACONICS ALONG AND
JUST WEST OF THE NY/VT/MA STATE LINE. TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING
WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST SO HAVE UPDATED GRIDS USING A
BLEND OF THE MAV/MOS...RUC...AND LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. WITH
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH OF ALBANY AND
THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE CATSKILLS HAVE ALSO EXPANDED THE AREA
OF VALLEY FOG FARTHER SOUTH. ASIDE FROM GLENS FALLS...POUGHKEEPSIE...
AND MONTGOMERY...ALL WHICH HAVE PLUMMETED INTO THE MID 30S...TEMPS
ACROSS THE REGION ARE HANGING IN THE LOW AND MID 40S...EVEN OVER
SOME OF THE AREA WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED. HAVE UPDATED SKY
GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AREA OF CLOUDS THAT COVER UPSTATE NEW
YORK WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY ALONG WITH ADJACENT PARTS OF PA...
LAKES ONTARIO AND ERIE...AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO.

***PREVIOUS NEAR TERM...ISSUED AT 245 PM TODAY...***
SURFACE HIGH IN THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LAKES AND
AN INVERSION AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER. HOWEVER...AREAS IN LEE OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES
AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS HAVE SEEN RELATIVELY LITTLE CLOUD COVER
DUE TO DOWNSLOPE.

RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS ARE CONSISTENT WITH TRENDS SEEN IN
GUIDANCE...WITH CLEARING AND DRYING BEGINNING TO WORK SOUTH FROM
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.  THIS CLEARING AND DRYING WILL BUILD SOUTH
THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT...BUT THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT
HOW FAR WEST THE CLEARING WILL GET...DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAKE
ONTARIO.  FOR AREAS AROUND AND EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...CLEARING
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  AREAS
OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TO SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
CATSKILLS MAY BE A BIT SLOWER TO CLEAR.  STILL...BY SUNRISE...
SUGGESTING ALL AREAS WILL CLEAR.  WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE/FEW HOURS
OF CLEARING BEFORE SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO NEAR
GUIDANCE LEVELS...EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH UNTIL
CLEARING OCCURS.

UPSTREAM SURFACE DEW POINTS NOT TOO DRY...SO LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
NOT BE MUCH BELOW GUIDANCE IN AREAS THAT SEE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF
CLEARING...AND MAYBE A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE WHERE CLEARING IS MOST
DELAYED.  MOST TEMPERATURE BUST POTENTIAL TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
CATSKILLS...WHERE TIMING OF CLEARING IN QUESTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
RATHER IMPRESSIVE RIDGE OVER RGN FOR THIS PERIOD AT SFC AND ALOFT.
THE 500HPA SHORT WAVE AXIS (FM W MD TO CAPE COD) WILL BE EXITING
THE RGN AT START OF THE PERIOD AND TAKING WITH IT MOST OF THE
FORCING THAT RESULTED IN THE CLOUDS THAT WERE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION. WRF ALSO SHOWS DRYING AND DRY AIR ADVECTION JUST PRIOR
TO THIS PERIOD. SO SUNDAY SHOULD BE A SUNNY DAY WITH ABV NORMAL
TEMPS AND ANY RESIDUAL CLOUDS WILL GO QUICKLY.

FOR THE MOST PART WE HAVE MODEL CONSISTENCY (ECMWF/GEM/GFS/NAM)
FOR SYSTEM PLACEMENT AND TIMING THROUGH MONDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS
THE NAM NOW PUSHES THREAT OF RAIN INTO SE FCA LATE MONDAY...ABOUT
3-6 HOURS FASTER THAN REST OF THE CROWD. BUT THE CONSENSUS
REMAINS FOR A PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY IN MOST OF THE AREA WITH
JUST CHC POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERAL COUNTIES. SO THERE
SHOULD BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST.

THE OTHER DISCONTINUITY IS THE MAV AND MET TEMPS ARE ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES APART SUNDAY...THE MET BEING THE COLD ONE. THIS IN SPITE
OF BOTH MODELS INDICATING SIMILAR SENSIBLE WEATHER (SUNNY..LIGHT
WINDS..UNDER HIGH), AND HAVING ABOUT THE SAME 925 HPA FORECASTED
TEMPS (3-5C)AS WELL. THIS DIFFERENCE IN THE MET/MAV IS REFLECTED
IN THEIR MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PARTICULARLY AROUND MAX TEMP TIME @
18UTC. WHILE THE NEW NAM PHYSICS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN BETTER SINCE
THE UPGRADE SOMETHING SEEMS SQUIRRELLY IN THE MET TEMPS SUNDAY.

TODAY SO FAR WHERES THERE NO SUN TEMPS ARE STILL MID 40S TO AROUND
50...AND WELL INTO THE 50S WHERE THE SUN IS SHINING. COULD JUST
BLEND THE TWO...BUT GIVEN THE COMPARISON TO TODAY..FCST WILL GO
WITH THE MAV TEMPS

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT THE LINGERING 500HPA TROF FROM THE MID
ATLC STATES PHASES WITH A TROF LIFTING NE FM GULF COAST STATES. STILL
CONSIDERABLE VARIATION IN THE PHASING AND THE SFC RESPONSE...BUT
GFS/ECMWF AND NAM PRODUCE A COASTAL LOW MONDAY NT THAT LIFTS NE.
THE MDL TRACKS ARE STILL QUITE VARIED. THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP FCA ON
PERIPHERY OF SYSTEM WITH THREAT OF ONLY LT RN IN SE FCA...THE NAM
A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AND FURTHER WEST. BOTTOM LINE WILL
INTRODUCE CHC POPS MON NT INTO TUES MAINLY IN SE HALF OF FCA.

ONCE THIS FIRST SYSTEM PASSES THERE`S AS MUCH AGREEMENT AS YOU
USUALLY GET IN THE EFP FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THERE ARE FEW
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BWTN HPC...THE ECMWF THAT JUST CAME IN AND
THE GFS. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC GRIDS FOR EFP.

IT APPEARS THIS EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A GAME CHANGER. AFTER
TUESDAYS WEAK COASTAL DEPARTS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES PHASE INTO A
DEEP AND LARGE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS
ANOTHER CUTOFF ORGANIZES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THESE SYSTEMS
INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD CREATING A
DUMBELLING ACTION AROUND EACH OTHER OVER THE GRTLKS..MIDWEST AND
UPR GRT PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK TILL THEY PHASE INTO A MASSIVE
CUTOFF LOVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO END THE WEEK. THE MAIN STORM
TRACKS WILL PASS TO OUR WEST AT FIRST...WITH THE FINAL ONE A
COASTAL BY THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD AS
WE HEAD INTO THE THANKSGIVING TRAVEL AND HOLIDAY PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE SEVERAL FRONTAL PASSAGES AND THEIR BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN NR OR ABOVE NORMAL TILL THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN
IT WILL TURN NOTICEABLY COLDER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.

TRICKY CALL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z/SUN...AS HIGHER
STRATUS DECK AS ERODED...LEAVING SKIES MAINLY CLEAR...AND WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND A SOMEWHAT MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...MAY PROMOTE
PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOWER CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...LATEST
11-3.9 IR SATELLITE INDICATES PREVIOUS STRATUS DECK EXPANDING BACK
TO THE W...AS WINDS AROUND 925-975 MB VEER INTO THE NE. BOTTOM
LINE...LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP AT THE TAF
SITES OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS...HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE HIGHER
CLOUD DECK. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SEVERAL TEMPOS FOR IFR
CONDITIONS...MOST LIKELY AROUND 12Z...ESP AT KGFL AND KALB.

AFTER 12Z/SUN...ANY IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LIFT INTO MVFR
CIGS...WHICH COULD LAST UNTIL 15Z-17Z. THEREAFTER...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
MVFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS MAY REDEVELOP TOWARD 06Z/MON.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...MAINLY FROM THE N TO NE AT LESS THAN 5
KT THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND NE TO E AT 5-10 KT DURING SUNDAY. WINDS
WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NITE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST INTO MONDAY RIVERS
WILL CONTINUE RECEDE THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT THREAT OF RAIN WILL
BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS FOR 0.10 TO
0.70 INCHES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. BUT ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH THE STORM TRACK AND AMOUNTS COULD VARY. THIS EVENT
SHOULD HAVE MODEST IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. FURTHER OUT AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...RCK
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KALY 220307
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1005 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE NORTHEAST TO START THE
WEEK. IT WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES AND OFFSHORE LATE
MONDAY. CLOUDS WILL HANG IN OVERNIGHT WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY BUT
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR TOWARD DAYBREAK. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATER IN THE WEEK
AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES AFFECT THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD EXCEPT FOR A
SMALL PATCH OF CLOUDS JUST WEST OF THE NORTHERN TACONICS ALONG AND
JUST WEST OF THE NY/VT/MA STATE LINE. TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING
WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST SO HAVE UPDATED GRIDS USING A
BLEND OF THE MAV/MOS...RUC...AND LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. WITH
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH OF ALBANY AND
THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE CATSKILLS HAVE ALSO EXPANDED THE AREA
OF VALLEY FOG FARTHER SOUTH. ASIDE FROM GLENS FALLS...POUGHKEEPSIE...
AND MONTGOMERY...ALL WHICH HAVE PLUMMETED INTO THE MID 30S...TEMPS
ACROSS THE REGION ARE HANGING IN THE LOW AND MID 40S...EVEN OVER
SOME OF THE AREA WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED. HAVE UPDATED SKY
GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AREA OF CLOUDS THAT COVER UPSTATE NEW
YORK WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY ALONG WITH ADJACENT PARTS OF PA...
LAKES ONTARIO AND ERIE...AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO.

***PREVIOUS NEAR TERM...ISSUED AT 245 PM TODAY...***
SURFACE HIGH IN THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LAKES AND
AN INVERSION AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER. HOWEVER...AREAS IN LEE OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES
AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS HAVE SEEN RELATIVELY LITTLE CLOUD COVER
DUE TO DOWNSLOPE.

RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS ARE CONSISTENT WITH TRENDS SEEN IN
GUIDANCE...WITH CLEARING AND DRYING BEGINNING TO WORK SOUTH FROM
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.  THIS CLEARING AND DRYING WILL BUILD SOUTH
THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT...BUT THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT
HOW FAR WEST THE CLEARING WILL GET...DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAKE
ONTARIO.  FOR AREAS AROUND AND EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...CLEARING
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  AREAS
OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TO SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
CATSKILLS MAY BE A BIT SLOWER TO CLEAR.  STILL...BY SUNRISE...
SUGGESTING ALL AREAS WILL CLEAR.  WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE/FEW HOURS
OF CLEARING BEFORE SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO NEAR
GUIDANCE LEVELS...EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH UNTIL
CLEARING OCCURS.

UPSTREAM SURFACE DEW POINTS NOT TOO DRY...SO LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
NOT BE MUCH BELOW GUIDANCE IN AREAS THAT SEE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF
CLEARING...AND MAYBE A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE WHERE CLEARING IS MOST
DELAYED.  MOST TEMPERATURE BUST POTENTIAL TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
CATSKILLS...WHERE TIMING OF CLEARING IN QUESTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RATHER IMPRESSIVE RIDGE OVER RGN FOR THIS PERIOD AT SFC AND ALOFT.
THE 500HPA SHORT WAVE AXIS (FM W MD TO CAPE COD) WILL BE EXITING
THE RGN AT START OF THE PERIOD AND TAKING WITH IT MOST OF THE
FORCING THAT RESULTED IN THE CLOUDS THAT WERE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION. WRF ALSO SHOWS DRYING AND DRY AIR ADVECTION JUST PRIOR
TO THIS PERIOD. SO SUNDAY SHOULD BE A SUNNY DAY WITH ABV NORMAL
TEMPS AND ANY RESIDUAL CLOUDS WILL GO QUICKLY.

FOR THE MOST PART WE HAVE MODEL CONSISTENCY (ECMWF/GEM/GFS/NAM)
FOR SYSTEM PLACEMENT AND TIMING THROUGH MONDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS
THE NAM NOW PUSHES THREAT OF RAIN INTO SE FCA LATE MONDAY...ABOUT
3-6 HOURS FASTER THAN REST OF THE CROWD. BUT THE CONSENSUS
REMAINS FOR A PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY IN MOST OF THE AREA WITH
JUST CHC POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERAL COUNTIES. SO THERE
SHOULD BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST.

THE OTHER DISCONTINUITY IS THE MAV AND MET TEMPS ARE ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES APART SUNDAY...THE MET BEING THE COLD ONE. THIS IN SPITE
OF BOTH MODELS INDICATING SIMILAR SENSIBLE WEATHER (SUNNY..LIGHT
WINDS..UNDER HIGH), AND HAVING ABOUT THE SAME 925 HPA FORECASTED
TEMPS (3-5C)AS WELL. THIS DIFFERENCE IN THE MET/MAV IS REFLECTED
IN THEIR MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PARTICULARLY AROUND MAX TEMP TIME @
18UTC. WHILE THE NEW NAM PHYSICS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN BETTER SINCE
THE UPGRADE SOMETHING SEEMS SQUIRRELLY IN THE MET TEMPS SUNDAY.

TODAY SO FAR WHERES THERE NO SUN TEMPS ARE STILL MID 40S TO AROUND
50...AND WELL INTO THE 50S WHERE THE SUN IS SHINING. COULD JUST
BLEND THE TWO...BUT GIVEN THE COMPARISON TO TODAY..FCST WILL GO
WITH THE MAV TEMPS

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT THE LINGERING 500HPA TROF FROM THE MID
ATLC STATES PHASES WITH A TROF LIFTING NE FM GULF COAST STATES. STILL
CONSIDERABLE VARIATION IN THE PHASING AND THE SFC RESPONSE...BUT
GFS/ECMWF AND NAM PRODUCE A COASTAL LOW MONDAY NT THAT LIFTS NE.
THE MDL TRACKS ARE STILL QUITE VARIED. THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP FCA ON
PERIPHERY OF SYSTEM WITH THREAT OF ONLY LT RN IN SE FCA...THE NAM
A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AND FURTHER WEST. BOTTOM LINE WILL
INTRODUCE CHC POPS MON NT INTO TUES MAINLY IN SE HALF OF FCA.

ONCE THIS FIRST SYSTEM PASSES THERE`S AS MUCH AGREEMENT AS YOU
USUALLY GET IN THE EFP FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THERE ARE FEW
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BWTN HPC...THE ECMWF THAT JUST CAME IN AND
THE GFS. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC GRIDS FOR EFP.

IT APPEARS THIS EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A GAME CHANGER. AFTER
TUESDAYS WEAK COASTAL DEPARTS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES PHASE INTO A
DEEP AND LARGE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS
ANOTHER CUTOFF ORGANIZES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THESE SYSTEMS
INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD CREATING A
DUMBELLING ACTION AROUND EACH OTHER OVER THE GRTLKS..MIDWEST AND
UPR GRT PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK TILL THEY PHASE INTO A MASSIVE
CUTOFF LOVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO END THE WEEK. THE MAIN STORM
TRACKS WILL PASS TO OUR WEST AT FIRST...WITH THE FINAL ONE A
COASTAL BY THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD AS
WE HEAD INTO THE THANKSGIVING TRAVEL AND HOLIDAY PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE SEVERAL FRONTAL PASSAGES AND THEIR BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN NR OR ABOVE NORMAL TILL THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN
IT WILL TURN NOTICEABLY COLDER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WAS COVERED
BY A DECK OF LOW STRATUS THAT WAS 2500-3500 FT ASL...WHICH HAD
RESULTED IN MVFR CIGS AT KALB FOR A WHILE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER THESE CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF MOST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY AND AT 7PM...00Z...SKIES WERE CLEAR AT KALB...KGFL...AND
KPOU. THERE WAS A SMALL AREA OF LOW CLOUDS EAST OF ALBANY WHICH
HAS RESULTED IN A MVFR CIG AT KPSF...AND AREAS OF IFR CIGS MAY
BE EXPECTD ACROSS THE TACONIC RIDGE EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
AND ALSO OVER HIGHER ELEVS OF THE CATSKILLS AND ADIRONDACKS
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

THE CLEARING SKIES...ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS...HAS BROUGHT
ABOUT ANOTHER COMPLICATION...THAT BEING THE POSSIBILITY OF
RADIATION FOG. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ARE LIKELY TO GET CLOSE TO THE
DEWPOINT RIGHT SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WE HAVE FORECAST MVFR
VISIBILITY AT KGFL STARTING AT 04Z...WITH IFR IN FOG POSSIBLE BY
05Z...AND IFR CIG AND VISBY LIKELY AFTER 08Z. A LIGHT NORTH WIND OFF
THE MOHAWK RIVER WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN MVFR FOG STARTING AROUND
07Z. AT THIS POINT ...WITH A LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WE ARE
EXPECTING KPOU TO REMAIN VFR WITH 6 MILES IN LIGHT FOG.

WINDS AT KALB WILL TURN NORTH AROUND 3 KTS LATER THIS EVENING
AND WILL BE CALM AT KGFL AND KPOU.

FOR SUNDAY...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF AND MIX OUT 1 TO
2 HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER THAT...A BEAUTIFUL VFR DAY WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NITE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST INTO MONDAY RIVERS
WILL CONTINUE RECEDE THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT THREAT OF RAIN WILL
BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS FOR 0.10 TO
0.70 INCHES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. BUT ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH THE STORM TRACK AND AMOUNTS COULD VARY. THIS EVENT
SHOULD HAVE MODEST IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. FURTHER OUT AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCK
NEAR TERM...RCK/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...RCK
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 220157
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
857 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY STATES WILL
BUILD SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT AND SETTLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THEREFORE...OUTSIDE ANY LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING...EXPECT GENERALLY FAIR AND DRY WEATHER DURING
THE PERIOD AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE. THE NEXT CHANCE
OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR BY THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 850 PM EST SATURDAY...HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR PERSISTENT LAYER OF
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 FT AGL. WHILE
SIGNIFICANT CLEARING HAS OCCURRED THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND MUCH OF ERN/SERN VT...OVERCAST CONDITIONS PREVAIL
ACROSS ALL OF THE NRN ADIRONDACKS...THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND
PORTIONS OF N-CENTRAL AND NERN VT. WITH WEAK WINDS OVERNIGHT AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ELIMINATE EXISTING
CLOUDS TRAPPED BELOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. AS SUCH...HAVE
INCREASED CLOUDS FOR SEVERAL ADDITIONAL HRS...WITH A SLOW
DECREASING TREND TOWARD DAYBREAK. FOG MAY BE LIMITED ACROSS NRN NY
OWING TO OVC SKIES...BUT ELSEWHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE SMALL
/WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 30S/ AND SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL BE FAVORED...ESPECIALLY WITH LONG MID-NOVEMEBER NIGHT. PATCHY FOG
REMAINS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY MILD BY LATE NOVEMBER
STANDARDS...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
ACROSS MOST PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 217 PM EST SATURDAY...TRANQUIL AND MILD LATE FALL WEATHER THEN
CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM AS AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ATOP THE NORTHEAST DURING SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME
FRAME. THEREFORE EXPECT FAIR AND DRY CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG
WITH A FAIRLY WIDE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS. WITH SHALLOW NATURE OF
PBL THIS TIME OF YEAR DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RATHER UNIFORM...
SLIGHTLY MILDER PERHAPS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE SHALLOW PBL
MIXING MAY BE ABLE TO TAP INTO WARMER 925 MB TEMPS ALOFT. NIGHTTIME
LOWS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS...THOUGH WITH AT LEAST SOME
RADIATIVE EFFECTS EXPECTED...HAVE UNDERCUT MOS MINS TEMPS SLIGHTLY
DURING OVERNIGHT PERIODS.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...SOME DISAGREEMENT BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE MODELS
AS DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/WRN ATLANTIC ATTEMPTS TO
CREEP NORTHWARD BENEATH WESTERN EXTENSION OF DEPARTING RIDGE AXIS.
AT THIS TIME BELIEVE ANY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME
REACHING THIS FAR NORTH GIVEN PLACEMENT OF LL RIDGE AXIS...AND WITH
BROAD SUPPORT FROM THIS MORNINGS OP ECMWF RUN AND GFS MEAN
ENSEMBLES HAVE KEPT SENSIBLE CONDS ESSENTIALLY DRY THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY. MID TO UPPER LVL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE
HOWEVER IN UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...THUS HAVE KEPT OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS SLIGHTLY MILDER THAN PRIOR COUNTERPARTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST SATURDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN TWO
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ON TUESDAY...WITH ONE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE COD AND ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
MODELS SHOW AREA WILL HAVE A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...EXTENDING INTO MIDDAY ON
WEDNESDAY. WILL GO WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH
MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
TUESDAY FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. HAVE GONE
BELOW GMOS POP GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS
FOR WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS.

THANKSGIVING DAY...MODELS SHOW A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED.
HAVE PUT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON THANKSGIVING DAY...
BUT GENERALLY FEEL THE DAYTIME WILL BE MAINLY DRY. HAVE GONE BELOW
GMOS POPS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY. GFS MODEL IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF
MODEL IN BRINGING THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED UPPER LOW EASTWARD.
GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD AND
BUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE EAST OF IT...WOULD TEND TO FAVOR THE
SLOWER ECMWF...AS FEEL THE GFS LOOKE A TAD TOO FAST. WILL MENTION
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL MENTION RAIN OR SNOW ON FRIDAY...
AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH ALOFT FOR
SOME RAIN ON FRIDAY...BUT CHANGING TO SNOW LATER IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
THE ECMWF SHOWS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN DYNAMIC COOLING ALOFT. ECMWF SUGGESTS
SOME SIGNIFICANT WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. HOWEVER...GIVEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS FAIR AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION HAS
ALLOWED SKIES TO BECOME CLEAR IN SOME AREAS THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HAS TRAPPED A SHALLOW LAYER
OF MOISTURE AT LOW LEVELS WHICH HAS KEPT LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. AS
TEMPERATURES COOL AND APPROACH THE DEWPOINT OVERNIGHT...LOW CLOUDS
WILL FILL IN AT MOST SITES ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. CEILINGS WILL
GENERALLY BE 1500-2500 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT ALTHOUGH KSLK WILL DROP
BELOW 1000 FT LATE TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 SM
WITH 2 SM AT KMPV. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR 08Z-12Z.
THEREAFTER EXPECT FOG AND CEILINGS TO SLOWLY THIN AND LIFT AND ALL
SITES WILL RETURN TO VFR BY 15Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING CLOUDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR DIMINISHING TO MVFR IN RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY SNOW.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...MB

000
FXUS61 KALY 220014
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
705 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE NORTHEAST...SLIDING
OFF INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE MONDAY. CLOUDS OVER THE REGION
WILL DIMINISH WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. OUR
WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. FIRST A LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEN MIDWEEK A SERIES OF MUCH STRONGER STORMS
WILL MOVE THOUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD EXCEPT FOR A
SMALL PATCH OF CLOUDS JUST WEST OF THE NORTHERN TACONICS ALONG
AND JUST WEST OF THE NY/VT/MA STATE LINE. WILL BE MAKING SOME
MINOR CHANGES IN THE GRIDS BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE FORECAST
IS IN GOOD SHAPE. TEMPERATURES WERE MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID
40S.  LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AREA
OF CLOUDS THAT COVER UPSTATE NEW YORK WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY ALONG WITH ADJACENT PARTS OF PA...LAKES ONTARIO AND
ERIE...AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO.

***PREVIOUS NEAR TERM...ISSUED AT 245 PM TODAY...***
SURFACE HIGH IN THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LAKES AND
AN INVERSION AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER. HOWEVER...AREAS IN LEE OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES
AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS HAVE SEEN RELATIVELY LITTLE CLOUD COVER
DUE TO DOWNSLOPE.

RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS ARE CONSISTENT WITH TRENDS SEEN IN
GUIDANCE...WITH CLEARING AND DRYING BEGINNING TO WORK SOUTH FROM
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.  THIS CLEARING AND DRYING WILL BUILD SOUTH
THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT...BUT THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT
HOW FAR WEST THE CLEARING WILL GET...DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAKE
ONTARIO.  FOR AREAS AROUND AND EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...CLEARING
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  AREAS
OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TO SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
CATSKILLS MAY BE A BIT SLOWER TO CLEAR.  STILL...BY SUNRISE...
SUGGESTING ALL AREAS WILL CLEAR.  WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE/FEW HOURS
OF CLEARING BEFORE SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO NEAR
GUIDANCE LEVELS...EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH UNTIL
CLEARING OCCURS.

UPSTREAM SURFACE DEW POINTS NOT TOO DRY...SO LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
NOT BE MUCH BELOW GUIDANCE IN AREAS THAT SEE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF
CLEARING...AND MAYBE A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE WHERE CLEARING IS MOST
DELAYED.  MOST TEMPERATURE BUST POTENTIAL TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
CATSKILLS...WHERE TIMING OF CLEARING IN QUESTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RATHER IMPRESSIVE RIDGE OVER RGN FOR THIS PERIOD AT SFC AND ALOFT.
THE 500HPA SHORT WAVE AXIS (FM W MD TO CAPE COD) WILL BE EXITING
THE RGN AT START OF THE PERIOD AND TAKING WITH IT MOST OF THE
FORCING THAT RESULTED IN THE CLOUDS THAT WERE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION. WRF ALSO SHOWS DRYING AND DRY AIR ADVECTION JUST PRIOR
TO THIS PERIOD. SO SUNDAY SHOULD BE A SUNNY DAY WITH ABV NORMAL
TEMPS AND ANY RESIDUAL CLOUDS WILL GO QUICKLY.

FOR THE MOST PART WE HAVE MODEL CONSISTENCY (ECMWF/GEM/GFS/NAM)
FOR SYSTEM PLACEMENT AND TIMING THROUGH MONDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS
THE NAM NOW PUSHES THREAT OF RAIN INTO SE FCA LATE MONDAY...ABOUT
3-6 HOURS FASTER THAN REST OF THE CROWD. BUT THE CONSENSUS
REMAINS FOR A PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY IN MOST OF THE AREA WITH
JUST CHC POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERAL COUNTIES. SO THERE
SHOULD BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST.

THE OTHER DISCONTINUITY IS THE MAV AND MET TEMPS ARE ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES APART SUNDAY...THE MET BEING THE COLD ONE. THIS IN SPITE
OF BOTH MODELS INDICATING SIMILAR SENSIBLE WEATHER (SUNNY..LIGHT
WINDS..UNDER HIGH), AND HAVING ABOUT THE SAME 925 HPA FORECASTED
TEMPS (3-5C)AS WELL. THIS DIFFERENCE IN THE MET/MAV IS REFLECTED
IN THEIR MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PARTICULARLY AROUND MAX TEMP TIME @
18UTC. WHILE THE NEW NAM PHYSICS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN BETTER SINCE
THE UPGRADE SOMETHING SEEMS SQUIRRELLY IN THE MET TEMPS SUNDAY.

TODAY SO FAR WHERES THERE NO SUN TEMPS ARE STILL MID 40S TO AROUND
50...AND WELL INTO THE 50S WHERE THE SUN IS SHINING. COULD JUST
BLEND THE TWO...BUT GIVEN THE COMPARISON TO TODAY..FCST WILL GO
WITH THE MAV TEMPS

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT THE LINGERING 500HPA TROF FROM THE MID
ATLC STATES PHASES WITH A TROF LIFTING NE FM GULF COAST STATES. STILL
CONSIDERABLE VARIATION IN THE PHASING AND THE SFC RESPONSE...BUT
GFS/ECMWF AND NAM PRODUCE A COASTAL LOW MONDAY NT THAT LIFTS NE.
THE MDL TRACKS ARE STILL QUITE VARIED. THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP FCA ON
PERIPHERY OF SYSTEM WITH THREAT OF ONLY LT RN IN SE FCA...THE NAM
A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AND FURTHER WEST. BOTTOM LINE WILL
INTRODUCE CHC POPS MON NT INTO TUES MAINLY IN SE HALF OF FCA.

ONCE THIS FIRST SYSTEM PASSES THERE`S AS MUCH AGREEMENT AS YOU
USUALLY GET IN THE EFP FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THERE ARE FEW
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BWTN HPC...THE ECMWF THAT JUST CAME IN AND
THE GFS. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC GRIDS FOR EFP.

IT APPEARS THIS EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A GAME CHANGER. AFTER
TUESDAYS WEAK COASTAL DEPARTS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES PHASE INTO A
DEEP AND LARGE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS
ANOTHER CUTOFF ORGANIZES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THESE SYSTEMS
INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD CREATING A
DUMBELLING ACTION AROUND EACH OTHER OVER THE GRTLKS..MIDWEST AND
UPR GRT PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK TILL THEY PHASE INTO A MASSIVE
CUTOFF LOVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO END THE WEEK. THE MAIN STORM
TRACKS WILL PASS TO OUR WEST AT FIRST...WITH THE FINAL ONE A
COASTAL BY THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD AS
WE HEAD INTO THE THANKSGIVING TRAVEL AND HOLIDAY PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE SEVERAL FRONTAL PASSAGES AND THEIR BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN NR OR ABOVE NORMAL TILL THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN
IT WILL TURN NOTICEABLY COLDER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WAS COVERED
BY A DECK OF LOW STRATUS THAT WAS 2500-3500 FT ASL...WHICH HAD
RESULTED IN MVFR CIGS AT KALB FOR A WHILE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER THESE CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF MOST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY AND AT 7PM...00Z...SKIES WERE CLEAR AT KALB...KGFL...AND
KPOU. THERE WAS A SMALL AREA OF LOW CLOUDS EAST OF ALBANY WHICH
HAS RESULTED IN A MVFR CIG AT KPSF...AND AREAS OF IFR CIGS MAY
BE EXPECTD ACROSS THE TACONIC RIDGE EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
AND ALSO OVER HIGHER ELEVS OF THE CATSKILLS AND ADIRONDACKS
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

THE CLEARING SKIES...ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS...HAS BROUGHT
ABOUT ANOTHER COMPLICATION...THAT BEING THE POSSIBILITY OF
RADIATION FOG. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ARE LIKELY TO GET CLOSE TO THE
DEWPOINT RIGHT SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WE HAVE FORECAST MVFR
VISIBILITY AT KGFL STARTING AT 04Z...WITH IFR IN FOG POSSIBLE BY
05Z...AND IFR CIG AND VISBY LIKELY AFTER 08Z. A LIGHT NORTH WIND OFF
THE MOHAWK RIVER WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN MVFR FOG STARTING AROUND
07Z. AT THIS POINT ...WITH A LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WE ARE
EXPECTING KPOU TO REMAIN VFR WITH 6 MILES IN LIGHT FOG.

WINDS AT KALB WILL TURN NORTH AROUND 3 KTS LATER THIS EVENING
AND WILL BE CALM AT KGFL AND KPOU.

FOR SUNDAY...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF AND MIX OUT 1 TO
2 HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER THAT...A BEAUTIFUL VFR DAY WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NITE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST INTO MONDAY RIVERS
WILL CONTINUE RECEDE THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT THREAT OF RAIN WILL
BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS FOR 0.10 TO
0.70 INCHES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. BUT ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH THE STORM TRACK AND AMOUNTS COULD VARY. THIS EVENT
SHOULD HAVE MODEST IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. FURTHER OUT AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...RCK
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 212333
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
633 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY STATES WILL
BUILD SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT AND SETTLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THEREFORE...OUTSIDE ANY LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING...EXPECT GENERALLY FAIR AND DRY WEATHER DURING
THE PERIOD AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE. THE NEXT CHANCE
OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR BY THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 217 PM EST SATURDAY...QUIET CONDS ON TAP FOR TONIGHT AS BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH DRY
WX. ONLY PROBLEMATICAL QUESTION IN THE FCST FOR TONIGHT WILL BE HOW
LONG PESKY LL STRATOCUMULUS DECK PERSISTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. CURRENT ACARS DATA OUT OF MONTREAL (CYUL) CONTINUES TO SHOW
VERY SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NEAR 900 MB THIS AFTERNOON...AND
ALONG WITH OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORABLE THOUGH WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
CLOUDS HAVE HUNG TOUGH ACROSS MANY AREAS TODAY. GIVEN THESE FACTORS
HAVE TRENDED TOWARD IDEA OF SOME BRIEF CLEARING EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN MORE CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY
BR/FG. WITH THE CLOUDS...LIGHT WINDS AND OVERALL LACK OF ADVECTIVE
PROCESSES...MIN TEMPS WILL HOLD FAIRLY MILD OVERNIGHT BY LATE
NOVEMBER STANDARDS ...BOTTOMING OUT GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S MOST LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 217 PM EST SATURDAY...TRANQUIL AND MILD LATE FALL WEATHER THEN
CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM AS AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ATOP THE NORTHEAST DURING SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME
FRAME. THEREFORE EXPECT FAIR AND DRY CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG
WITH A FAIRLY WIDE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS. WITH SHALLOW NATURE OF
PBL THIS TIME OF YEAR DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RATHER UNIFORM...
SLIGHTLY MILDER PERHAPS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE SHALLOW PBL
MIXING MAY BE ABLE TO TAP INTO WARMER 925 MB TEMPS ALOFT. NIGHTTIME
LOWS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS...THOUGH WITH AT LEAST SOME
RADIATIVE EFFECTS EXPECTED...HAVE UNDERCUT MOS MINS TEMPS SLIGHTLY
DURING OVERNIGHT PERIODS.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...SOME DISAGREEMENT BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE MODELS
AS DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/WRN ATLANTIC ATTEMPTS TO
CREEP NORTHWARD BENEATH WESTERN EXTENSION OF DEPARTING RIDGE AXIS.
AT THIS TIME BELIEVE ANY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME
REACHING THIS FAR NORTH GIVEN PLACEMENT OF LL RIDGE AXIS...AND WITH
BROAD SUPPORT FROM THIS MORNINGS OP ECMWF RUN AND GFS MEAN
ENSEMBLES HAVE KEPT SENSIBLE CONDS ESSENTIALLY DRY THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY. MID TO UPPER LVL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE
HOWEVER IN UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...THUS HAVE KEPT OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS SLIGHTLY MILDER THAN PRIOR COUNTERPARTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST SATURDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN TWO
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ON TUESDAY...WITH ONE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE COD AND ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
MODELS SHOW AREA WILL HAVE A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...EXTENDING INTO MIDDAY ON
WEDNESDAY. WILL GO WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH
MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
TUESDAY FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. HAVE GONE
BELOW GMOS POP GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS
FOR WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS.

THANKSGIVING DAY...MODELS SHOW A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED.
HAVE PUT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON THANKSGIVING DAY...
BUT GENERALLY FEEL THE DAYTIME WILL BE MAINLY DRY. HAVE GONE BELOW
GMOS POPS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY. GFS MODEL IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF
MODEL IN BRINGING THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED UPPER LOW EASTWARD.
GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD AND
BUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE EAST OF IT...WOULD TEND TO FAVOR THE
SLOWER ECMWF...AS FEEL THE GFS LOOKE A TAD TOO FAST. WILL MENTION
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL MENTION RAIN OR SNOW ON FRIDAY...
AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH ALOFT FOR
SOME RAIN ON FRIDAY...BUT CHANGING TO SNOW LATER IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
THE ECMWF SHOWS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN DYNAMIC COOLING ALOFT. ECMWF SUGGESTS
SOME SIGNIFICANT WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. HOWEVER...GIVEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS FAIR AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION HAS
ALLOWED SKIES TO BECOME CLEAR IN SOME AREAS THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HAS TRAPPED A SHALLOW LAYER
OF MOISTURE AT LOW LEVELS WHICH HAS KEPT LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. AS
TEMPERATURES COOL AND APPROACH THE DEWPOINT OVERNIGHT...LOW CLOUDS
WILL FILL IN AT MOST SITES ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. CEILINGS WILL
GENERALLY BE 1500-2500 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT ALTHOUGH KSLK WILL DROP
BELOW 1000 FT LATE TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 SM
WITH 2 SM AT KMPV. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR 08Z-12Z.
THEREAFTER EXPECT FOG AND CEILINGS TO SLOWLY THIN AND LIFT AND ALL
SITES WILL RETURN TO VFR BY 15Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING CLOUDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR DIMINISHING TO MVFR IN RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY SNOW.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...MB

000
FXUS61 KBTV 212045
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY STATES WILL
BUILD SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT AND SETTLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THEREFORE...OUTSIDE ANY LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING...EXPECT GENERALLY FAIR AND DRY WEATHER DURING
THE PERIOD AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE. THE NEXT CHANCE
OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR BY THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 217 PM EST SATURDAY...QUIET CONDS ON TAP FOR TONIGHT AS BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH DRY
WX. ONLY PROBLEMATICAL QUESTION IN THE FCST FOR TONIGHT WILL BE HOW
LONG PESKY LL STRATOCUMULUS DECK PERSISTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. CURRENT ACARS DATA OUT OF MONTREAL (CYUL) CONTINUES TO SHOW
VERY SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NEAR 900 MB THIS AFTERNOON...AND
ALONG WITH OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORABLE THOUGH WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
CLOUDS HAVE HUNG TOUGH ACROSS MANY AREAS TODAY. GIVEN THESE FACTORS
HAVE TRENDED TOWARD IDEA OF SOME BRIEF CLEARING EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN MORE CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY
BR/FG. WITH THE CLOUDS...LIGHT WINDS AND OVERALL LACK OF ADVECTIVE
PROCESSES...MIN TEMPS WILL HOLD FAIRLY MILD OVERNIGHT BY LATE
NOVEMBER STANDARDS ...BOTTOMING OUT GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S MOST LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 217 PM EST SATURDAY...TRANQUIL AND MILD LATE FALL WEATHER THEN
CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM AS AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ATOP THE NORTHEAST DURING SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME
FRAME. THEREFORE EXPECT FAIR AND DRY CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG
WITH A FAIRLY WIDE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS. WITH SHALLOW NATURE OF
PBL THIS TIME OF YEAR DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RATHER UNIFORM...
SLIGHTLY MILDER PERHAPS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE SHALLOW PBL
MIXING MAY BE ABLE TO TAP INTO WARMER 925 MB TEMPS ALOFT. NIGHTTIME
LOWS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS...THOUGH WITH AT LEAST SOME
RADIATIVE EFFECTS EXPECTED...HAVE UNDERCUT MOS MINS TEMPS SLIGHTLY
DURING OVERNIGHT PERIODS.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...SOME DISAGREEMENT BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE MODELS
AS DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/WRN ATLANTIC ATTEMPTS TO
CREEP NORTHWARD BENEATH WESTERN EXTENSION OF DEPARTING RIDGE AXIS.
AT THIS TIME BELIEVE ANY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME
REACHING THIS FAR NORTH GIVEN PLACEMENT OF LL RIDGE AXIS...AND WITH
BROAD SUPPORT FROM THIS MORNINGS OP ECMWF RUN AND GFS MEAN
ENSEMBLES HAVE KEPT SENSIBLE CONDS ESSENTIALLY DRY THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY. MID TO UPPER LVL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE
HOWEVER IN UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...THUS HAVE KEPT OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS SLIGHTLY MILDER THAN PRIOR COUNTERPARTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST SATURDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN TWO
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ON TUESDAY...WITH ONE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE COD AND ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
MODELS SHOW AREA WILL HAVE A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...EXTENDING INTO MIDDAY ON
WEDNESDAY. WILL GO WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH
MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
TUESDAY FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. HAVE GONE
BELOW GMOS POP GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS
FOR WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS.

THANKSGIVING DAY...MODELS SHOW A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED.
HAVE PUT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON THANKSGIVING DAY...
BUT GENERALLY FEEL THE DAYTIME WILL BE MAINLY DRY. HAVE GONE BELOW
GMOS POPS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY. GFS MODEL IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF
MODEL IN BRINGING THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED UPPER LOW EASTWARD.
GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD AND
BUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE EAST OF IT...WOULD TEND TO FAVOR THE
SLOWER ECMWF...AS FEEL THE GFS LOOKE A TAD TOO FAST. WILL MENTION
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL MENTION RAIN OR SNOW ON FRIDAY...
AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH ALOFT FOR
SOME RAIN ON FRIDAY...BUT CHANGING TO SNOW LATER IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
THE ECMWF SHOWS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN DYNAMIC COOLING ALOFT. ECMWF SUGGESTS
SOME SIGNIFICANT WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. HOWEVER...GIVEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS FAIR AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN HANGING IN ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS A
LOW LEVEL INVERSION HAS TRAPPED THIS MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
CONDITIONS RANGE FROM VFR CONDITIONS IN VALLEY LOCATIONS TO MVFR
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION. EXPECTING SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER TO
BECOME SCATTERED AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...EXCEPT OVER THE ADIRONDACKS
AND PORTIONS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING SOME FOG AND MIST
TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 05Z SUNDAY...WITH SOME MVFR
CEILINGS AS A HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. ANY FOG OR MVFR CEILINGS WILL DISSIPATE BY 14Z
SUNDAY...WITH SKIES BECOMING MAINLY CLEAR.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FROM 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z
WEDNESDAY...AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.
12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH

000
FXUS61 KALY 211946
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
246 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE NORTHEAST...SLIDING
OFF INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE MONDAY. CLOUDS OVER THE REGION
WILL DIMINISH WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. OUR
WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. FIRST A LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEN MIDWEEK A SERIES OF MUCH STRONGER STORMS
WILL MOVE THOUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH IN THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
LAKES AND AN INVERSION AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RESULTED IN
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...AREAS IN LEE OF THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS HAVE SEEN
RELATIVELY LITTLE CLOUD COVER DUE TO DOWNSLOPE.

RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS ARE CONSISTENT WITH TRENDS SEEN IN
GUIDANCE...WITH CLEARING AND DRYING BEGINNING TO WORK SOUTH FROM
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.  THIS CLEARING AND DRYING WILL BUILD SOUTH
THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT...BUT THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT
HOW FAR WEST THE CLEARING WILL GET...DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAKE
ONTARIO.  FOR AREAS AROUND AND EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...CLEARING
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  AREAS
OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TO SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
CATSKILLS MAY BE A BIT SLOWER TO CLEAR.  STILL...BY SUNRISE...
SUGGESTING ALL AREAS WILL CLEAR.  WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE/FEW HOURS
OF CLEARING BEFORE SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO NEAR
GUIDANCE LEVELS...EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH UNTIL
CLEARING OCCURS.

UPSTREAM SURFACE DEW POINTS NOT TOO DRY...SO LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
NOT BE MUCH BELOW GUIDANCE IN AREAS THAT SEE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF
CLEARING...AND MAYBE A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE WHERE CLEARING IS MOST
DELAYED.  MOST TEMPERATURE BUST POTENTIAL TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
CATSKILLS...WHERE TIMING OF CLEARING IN QUESTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RATHER IMPRESSIVE RIDGE OVER RGN FOR THIS PERIOD AT SFC AND ALOFT.
THE 500HPA SHORT WAVE AXIS (FM W MD TO CAPE COD) WILL BE EXITING
THE RGN AT START OF THE PERIOD AND TAKING WITH IT MOST OF THE
FORCING THAT RESULTED IN THE CLOUDS THAT WERE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION. WRF ALSO SHOWS DRYING AND DRY AIR ADVECTION JUST PRIOR
TO THIS PERIOD. SO SUNDAY SHOULD BE A SUNNY DAY WITH ABV NORMAL
TEMPS AND ANY RESIDUAL CLOUDS WILL GO QUICKLY.

FOR THE MOST PART WE HAVE MODEL CONSISTENCY (ECMWF/GEM/GFS/NAM)
FOR SYSTEM PLACEMENT AND TIMING THROUGH MONDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS
THE NAM NOW PUSHES THREAT OF RAIN INTO SE FCA LATE MONDAY...ABOUT
3-6 HOURS FASTER THAN REST OF THE CROWD. BUT THE CONSENSUS
REMAINS FOR A PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY IN MOST OF THE AREA WITH
JUST CHC POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERAL COUNTIES. SO THERE
SHOULD BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST.

THE OTHER DISCONTINUITY IS THE MAV AND MET TEMPS ARE ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES APART SUNDAY...THE MET BEING THE COLD ONE. THIS IN SPITE
OF BOTH MODELS INDICATING SIMILAR SENSIBLE WEATHER (SUNNY..LIGHT
WINDS..UNDER HIGH), AND HAVING ABOUT THE SAME 925 HPA FORECASTED
TEMPS (3-5C)AS WELL. THIS DIFFERENCE IN THE MET/MAV IS REFLECTED
IN THEIR MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PARTICULARLY AROUND MAX TEMP TIME @
18UTC. WHILE THE NEW NAM PHYSICS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN BETTER SINCE
THE UPGRADE SOMETHING SEEMS SQUIRRELLY IN THE MET TEMPS SUNDAY.

TODAY SO FAR WHERES THERE NO SUN TEMPS ARE STILL MID 40S TO AROUND
50...AND WELL INTO THE 50S WHERE THE SUN IS SHINING. COULD JUST
BLEND THE TWO...BUT GIVEN THE COMPARISON TO TODAY..FCST WILL GO
WITH THE MAV TEMPS

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT THE LINGERING 500HPA TROF FROM THE MID
ATLC STATES PHASES WITH A TROF LIFTING NE FM GULF COAST STATES. STILL
CONSIDERABLE VARIATION IN THE PHASING AND THE SFC RESPONSE...BUT
GFS/ECMWF AND NAM PRODUCE A COASTAL LOW MONDAY NT THAT LIFTS NE.
THE MDL TRACKS ARE STILL QUITE VARIED. THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP FCA ON
PERIPHERY OF SYSTEM WITH THREAT OF ONLY LT RN IN SE FCA...THE NAM
A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AND FURTHER WEST. BOTTOM LINE WILL
INTRODUCE CHC POPS MON NT INTO TUES MAINLY IN SE HALF OF FCA.

ONCE THIS FIRST SYSTEM PASSES THERE`S AS MUCH AGREEMENT AS YOU
USUALLY GET IN THE EFP FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THERE ARE FEW
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BWTN HPC...THE ECMWF THAT JUST CAME IN AND
THE GFS. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC GRIDS FOR EFP.

IT APPEARS THIS EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A GAME CHANGER. AFTER
TUESDAYS WEAK COASTAL DEPARTS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES PHASE INTO A
DEEP AND LARGE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS
ANOTHER CUTOFF ORGANIZES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THESE SYSTEMS
INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD CREATING A
DUMBELLING ACTION AROUND EACH OTHER OVER THE GRTLKS..MIDWEST AND
UPR GRT PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK TILL THEY PHASE INTO A MASSIVE
CUTOFF LOVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO END THE WEEK. THE MAIN STORM
TRACKS WILL PASS TO OUR WEST AT FIRST...WITH THE FINAL ONE A
COASTAL BY THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD AS
WE HEAD INTO THE THANKSGIVING TRAVEL AND HOLIDAY PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE SEVERAL FRONTAL PASSAGES AND THEIR BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN NR OR ABOVE NORMAL TILL THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN
IT WILL TURN NOTICEABLY COLDER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

TODAY...MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KGFL AND KALB EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z...BEFORE
RISING TO VFR LEVELS. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF MVFR
CIGS PERSISTING EVEN LONGER. AT KPOU...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE DECREASING ON WHETHER ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS
REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...OR SKIES REMAIN CLEAR WITH PATCHY GROUND
FOG DEVELOPMENT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR
CIGS DEVELOPING AT KGFL AND KALB AFTER 06Z/SUN. AT THIS TIME...DUE
TO LINGERING UNCERTAINTY...WE HAVE INDICATED FEW-SCT CLOUDS BELOW
1000 FT AGL AT KGFL AND KALB AFTER 08Z/SUN...BUT SHOULD MOISTENING
TRENDS CONTINUE IN MODEL GUIDANCE...WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER SOME IFR
CIGS LATER TONIGHT AT THESE TERMINALS. AT KPOU...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR...WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR VSBYS DEVELOPING LATE DUE TO
PATCHY GROUND FOG.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE W TO NW AT 5-10 KT TODAY...BECOMING
LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. SOME GUSTINESS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT
MORNING...ESP AT KALB...POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. IN ADDITION...AT
KGFL...SOME VARIATIONS IN WIND DIRECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO LOCALIZED TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST INTO MONDAY RIVERS
WILL CONTINUE RECEDE THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT THREAT OF RAIN WILL
BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS FOR 0.10 TO
0.70 INCHES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. BUT ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH THE STORM TRACK AND AMOUNTS COULD VARY. THIS EVENT
SHOULD HAVE MODEST IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. FURTHER OUT AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 211917
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
217 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY STATES WILL
BUILD SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT AND SETTLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THEREFORE...OUTSIDE ANY LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING...EXPECT GENERALLY FAIR AND DRY WEATHER DURING
THE PERIOD AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE. THE NEXT CHANCE
OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR BY THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 217 PM EST SATURDAY...QUIET CONDS ON TAP FOR TONIGHT AS BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH DRY
WX. ONLY PROBLEMATICAL QUESTION IN THE FCST FOR TONIGHT WILL BE HOW
LONG PESKY LL STRATOCUMULUS DECK PERSISTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. CURRENT ACARS DATA OUT OF MONTREAL (CYUL) CONTINUES TO SHOW
VERY SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NEAR 900 MB THIS AFTERNOON...AND
ALONG WITH OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORABLE THOUGH WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
CLOUDS HAVE HUNG TOUGH ACROSS MANY AREAS TODAY. GIVEN THESE FACTORS
HAVE TRENDED TOWARD IDEA OF SOME BRIEF CLEARING EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN MORE CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY
BR/FG. WITH THE CLOUDS...LIGHT WINDS AND OVERALL LACK OF ADVECTIVE
PROCESSES...MIN TEMPS WILL HOLD FAIRLY MILD OVERNIGHT BY LATE
NOVEMBER STANDARDS ...BOTTOMING OUT GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S MOST LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 217 PM EST SATURDAY...TRANQUIL AND MILD LATE FALL WEATHER THEN
CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM AS AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ATOP THE NORTHEAST DURING SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME
FRAME. THEREFORE EXPECT FAIR AND DRY CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG
WITH A FAIRLY WIDE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS. WITH SHALLOW NATURE OF
PBL THIS TIME OF YEAR DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RATHER UNIFORM...
SLIGHTLY MILDER PERHAPS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE SHALLOW PBL
MIXING MAY BE ABLE TO TAP INTO WARMER 925 MB TEMPS ALOFT. NIGHTTIME
LOWS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS...THOUGH WITH AT LEAST SOME
RADIATIVE EFFECTS EXPECTED...HAVE UNDERCUT MOS MINS TEMPS SLIGHTLY
DURING OVERNIGHT PERIODS.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...SOME DISAGREEMENT BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE MODELS
AS DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/WRN ATLANTIC ATTEMPTS TO
CREEP NORTHWARD BENEATH WESTERN EXTENSION OF DEPARTING RIDGE AXIS.
AT THIS TIME BELIEVE ANY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME
REACHING THIS FAR NORTH GIVEN PLACEMENT OF LL RIDGE AXIS...AND WITH
BROAD SUPPORT FROM THIS MORNINGS OP ECMWF RUN AND GFS MEAN
ENSEMBLES HAVE KEPT SENSIBLE CONDS ESSENTIALLY DRY THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY. MID TO UPPER LVL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE
HOWEVER IN UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...THUS HAVE KEPT OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS SLIGHTLY MILDER THAN PRIOR COUNTERPARTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SATURDAY...AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEM MOVES
UP THE ATLANTIC COAST THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN ZONES
INCREASES MON NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN VT AND
EVEN CENTRAL/EASTERN DACKS TUESDAY. FOR MID WEEK THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT OF GUIDANCE WITH HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE
OVER THE HEARTLAND. MORE SPECIFICALLY...WITH THE FUJIWHARA EFFECT
BETWEEN THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW AND PACIFIC ENERGY THAT ENTERS THE
BROAD TROUGH. THE GFS OFFERS A MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION...THOUGH HAS BEEN MUCH MORE INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO
RUN. THE ECMWF`S LESS PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT AND IS THEREFORE FAVORED. UNDER THE ECMWF SOLUTION THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY IS MARKEDLY LESS THAN MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES...AS THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION. THROUGH
DIFFERING SOLUTIONS...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF EVENTUALLY BRING
PRECIPITATION INTO THE NORTHEAST AROUND THE HOLIDAY...ESPECIALLY
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BOTH ALSO BRING THE FIRST TRUE
SEASONAL AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN PLACEMENT OF SFC FEATURES AND THUS
PLACEMENT OF THE COLD AIR...HAVE MAINTAINED THE RAIN/SNOW
FORECAST...EXCEPT AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHICH SHOULD BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN HANGING IN ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS A
LOW LEVEL INVERSION HAS TRAPPED THIS MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
CONDITIONS RANGE FROM VFR CONDITIONS IN VALLEY LOCATIONS TO MVFR
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION. EXPECTING SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER TO
BECOME SCATTERED AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...EXCEPT OVER THE ADIRONDACKS
AND PORTIONS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING SOME FOG AND MIST
TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 05Z SUNDAY...WITH SOME MVFR
CEILINGS AS A HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. ANY FOG OR MVFR CEILINGS WILL DISSIPATE BY 14Z
SUNDAY...WITH SKIES BECOMING MAINLY CLEAR.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FROM 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z
WEDNESDAY...AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.
12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...AMF
AVIATION...WGH

000
FXUS61 KALY 211829
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
129 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE NORTHEAST...SLIDING
OFF INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE MONDAY. CLOUDS OVER THE REGION
WILL DIMINISH WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. OUR
WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. FIRST A LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEN MIDWEEK A SERIES OF MUCH STRONGER STORMS
WILL MOVE THOUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH IN THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
LAKES AND AN INVERSION AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RESULTED IN
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...AREAS IN LEE OF THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS HAVE SEEN
RELATIVELY LITTLE CLOUD COVER DUE TO DOWNSLOPE.

RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS ARE CONSISTENT WITH TRENDS SEEN IN
GUIDANCE...WITH CLEARING AND DRYING BEGINNING TO WORK SOUTH FROM
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.  THIS CLEARING AND DRYING WILL BUILD SOUTH
THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT...BUT THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT
HOW FAR WEST THE CLEARING WILL GET...DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAKE
ONTARIO.  FOR AREAS AROUND AND EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...CLEARING
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  AREAS
OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TO SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
CATSKILLS MAY BE A BIT SLOWER TO CLEAR.  STILL...BY SUNRISE...
SUGGESTING ALL AREAS WILL CLEAR.  WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE/FEW HOURS
OF CLEARING BEFORE SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO NEAR
GUIDANCE LEVELS...EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH UNTIL
CLEARING OCCURS.

UPSTREAM SURFACE DEW POINTS NOT TOO DRY...SO LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
NOT BE MUCH BELOW GUIDANCE IN AREAS THAT SEE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF
CLEARING...AND MAYBE A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE WHERE CLEARING IS MOST
DELAYED.  MOST TEMPERATURE BUST POTENTIAL TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
CATSKILLS...WHERE TIMING OF CLEARING IN QUESTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RATHER IMPRESSIVE RIDGE OVER RGN FOR THIS PERIOD AT SFC AND ALOFT.
THE 500HPA SHORT WAVE AXIS (FM W MD TO CAPE COD) WILL BE EXITING
THE RGN AT START OF THE PERIOD AND TAKING WITH IT MOST OF THE
FORCING THAT RESULTED IN THE CLOUDS THAT WERE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION. WRF ALSO SHOWS DRYING AND DRY AIR ADVECTION JUST PRIOR
TO THIS PERIOD. SO SUNDAY SHOULD BE A SUNNY DAY WITH ABV NORMAL
TEMPS AND ANY RESIDUAL CLOUDS WILL GO QUICKLY.

FOR THE MOST PART WE HAVE MODEL CONSISTENCY (ECMWF/GEM/GFS/NAM)
FOR SYSTEM PLACEMENT AND TIMING THROUGH MONDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS
THE NAM NOW PUSHES THREAT OF RAIN INTO SE FCA LATE MONDAY...ABOUT
3-6 HOURS FASTER THAN REST OF THE CROWD. BUT THE CONSENSUS
REMAINS FOR A PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY IN MOST OF THE AREA WITH
JUST CHC POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERAL COUNTIES. SO THERE
SHOULD BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST.

THE OTHER DISCONTINUITY IS THE MAV AND MET TEMPS ARE ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES APART SUNDAY...THE MET BEING THE COLD ONE. THIS IN SPITE
OF BOTH MODELS INDICATING SIMILAR SENSIBLE WEATHER (SUNNY..LIGHT
WINDS..UNDER HIGH), AND HAVING ABOUT THE SAME 925 HPA FORECASTED
TEMPS (3-5C)AS WELL. THIS DIFFERENCE IN THE MET/MAV IS REFLECTED
IN THEIR MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PARTICULARLY AROUND MAX TEMP TIME @
18UTC. WHILE THE NEW NAM PHYSICS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN BETTER SINCE
THE UPGRADE SOMETHING SEEMS SQUIRRELLY IN THE MET TEMPS SUNDAY.

TODAY SO FAR WHERES THERE NO SUN TEMPS ARE STILL MID 40S TO AROUND
50...AND WELL INTO THE 50S WHERE THE SUN IS SHINING. COULD JUST
BLEND THE TWO...BUT GIVEN THE COMPARISON TO TODAY..FCST WILL GO
WITH THE MAV TEMPS

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MON NT-TUE...STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING NEXT
SYSTEM...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST. THE
GENERAL TREND IN THE MODELS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS HAS BEEN
WEAKER...AND FURTHER S/E WITH THE TRACK. THE 00Z/21 GEM IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...TRACKING IT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...BUT STILL FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING AT LEAST SOME LIGHT RAIN
TO THE S/E HALF OF REGION. THE 00Z/21 GFS IS A BIT FURTHER
S/E...WHILE THE 00Z/21 ECMWF AND AT LEAST HALF OF THE MREFS KEEP
MOST PRECIP OUT OF OUR REGION...JUST CLIPPING FAR SE AREAS LATE MON
NT INTO EARLY TUE. BASED ON THIS LINGERING UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
INDICATED ONLY SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
HALF OF REGION...WHILE KEEPING NORTHERN AREAS DRY. AS FOR
TEMPS...GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GMOS...WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE
30S...AND TUE MAXES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. SHOULD THE
CLOUDS/PRECIP EXTEND FURTHER N/W...EVEN COOLER MAXES ARE POSSIBLE.

TUE NT-WED...WILL INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD...AS
MOST MODELS HINT AT SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...BY LATE WED...ENERGY AND WARM ADVECTION APPROACHING FROM
THE W MAY LEAD TO SOME RAIN BY LATE WED. THUS...HAVE INDICATED SOME
SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS ACROSS SW AREAS FOR LATE WED.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN AREAS...TO THE LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AREAS...WITH OVERNIGHT MINS TUE NT MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

WED NT-FRI...MODELS HINT AT ADDITIONAL PRECIP DURING THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH DIFFER ON THE EXACT TRIGGERING MECHANISMS. THE
00Z/GFS HINTS AT A FASTER WAVE MOVING THROUGH LATE WED INTO WED NT
WITH RAIN...WHILE MOST MREF MEMBERS...AND THE ECMWF DEPICT A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...WHILE ANOTHER SFC LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE SE COAST AND TRACKS
NNE. AT THE VERY LEAST...WILL INDICATE CHC POPS DURING THIS PERIOD
FOR RAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME WET SNOW COULD BE MIXED IN ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS EARLY THU. THEN...AS MID/UPPER LEVEL CONTINUE TO
COOL...WE EXPECT ANY RAIN TO GRADUALLY MIX WITH/CHANGE TO SNOW
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY LATE THU...AND PERHAPS WITHIN VALLEYS BY
THU NT OR EARLY FRI. WHETHER THIS PRECIPITATION IS WIDESPREAD AND
STEADY...OR MORE SCATTERED AND SHOWERY IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT
THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POSSIBILITY FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TO
RECEIVE MEASURABLE SNOW SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD. FOR
TEMPS...EXPECT MINS WED NT TO MAINLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH THU MAXES
MAINLY IN THE 30S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND 40S FOR VALLEYS. FOR
THU NT...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 20S FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER/MID 30S FOR THE VALLEYS...WITH FRI MAXES
RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE
UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S WITHIN THE VALLEYS. IT MAY ALSO BECOME QUITE
WINDY BY FRI...DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF ANY SFC LOW
PASSING TO OUR E OR NE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

TODAY...MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KGFL AND KALB EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z...BEFORE
RISING TO VFR LEVELS. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF MVFR
CIGS PERSISTING EVEN LONGER. AT KPOU...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE DECREASING ON WHETHER ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS
REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...OR SKIES REMAIN CLEAR WITH PATCHY GROUND
FOG DEVELOPMENT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR
CIGS DEVELOPING AT KGFL AND KALB AFTER 06Z/SUN. AT THIS TIME...DUE
TO LINGERING UNCERTAINTY...WE HAVE INDICATED FEW-SCT CLOUDS BELOW
1000 FT AGL AT KGFL AND KALB AFTER 08Z/SUN...BUT SHOULD MOISTENING
TRENDS CONTINUE IN MODEL GUIDANCE...WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER SOME IFR
CIGS LATER TONIGHT AT THESE TERMINALS. AT KPOU...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR...WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR VSBYS DEVELOPING LATE DUE TO
PATCHY GROUND FOG.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE W TO NW AT 5-10 KT TODAY...BECOMING
LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. SOME GUSTINESS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT
MORNING...ESP AT KALB...POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. IN ADDITION...AT
KGFL...SOME VARIATIONS IN WIND DIRECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO LOCALIZED TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST INTO MONDAY RIVERS
WILL CONTINUE RECEDE THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT THREAT OF RAIN WILL
BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS FOR 0.10 TO
0.70 INCHES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. BUT ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH THE STORM TRACK AND AMOUNTS COULD VARY. THIS EVENT
SHOULD HAVE MODEST IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. FURTHER OUT AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 211814
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
114 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT
THE REGION TUESDAY...AND AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 941 AM EST SATURDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO THE TODAY AND TONIGHT
PERIOD...MAINLY TO REFLECT MUCH SLOWER EROSION OF PESKY CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENT ACARS DATA FROM CYUL THIS MORNING SHOWING
IMPRESSIVE SYNOPTIC LL INVERSION NEAR 900 MB...WHICH IS ACTING TO
TRAP RESIDUAL LL MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH
OROGRAPHICALLY...ALBEIT LIGHT NORHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS
OUR AREA TODAY...HARD TO DISAGREE W/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING FCSTS
SHOWING LL STRATOCU HANGING TOUGH FOR MOST OF THE DAY...ESP IN THE
NORTHERN MTNS. THUS HAVE OPTED FOR MORE PESSIMISTIC CHCS OF
SUNSHINE TODAY IN THESE AREAS. SOME PEEKS OF SUN MORE LIKELY BY
LATER IN THE DAY IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND PORTIONS OF SC VT. BY
TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER SHOULD SLOWLY THIN/ERODE AS HIGH PRESSURE AND
DEEP LAYER DRYING CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. REST OF FCST IN
EXCELLENT SHAPE IN REGARD TO WIND/TEMPS...SO OTHER THAN SKY COVER
ADJUSTMENTS NOTED ABOVE NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED ATTM.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
REMNANTS OF EXITING SYSTEM CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL DOWN ACROSS THE CWA
THIS MORNING...AS LL CLD COVER BLANKETS THE CWA. THIS EXITING LOW
OVER THE MARITIMES WILL GIVE WAY TO BROAD SFC RIDGE...WHICH IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST. EXPECTING INVERSION TO DEVELOP DURING
THE DAY AS RIDGE BUILDS EAST. AS A RESULT...LL CLDS WILL REMAIN OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA BFR BREAKING LATE IN THE DAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL
BE LEFT OVER FOR MENTION OF --RW OVER HIR TRRN. TEMPS WILL BE
CONSTRAINED FROM EXTENSIVE CLDS...SO HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.
GOING INTO THE EVENING HRS...SKIES WILL CLR OUT ALLOWING FOR TEMPS
TO DROP W/RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EST SATURDAY...NICE WX CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY AS RIDGE
CRESTS OVER THE REGION. INVERSION WILL REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE CWA
DURING SUNDAY. THIS IS EVIDENT IN LATEST 850 TEMPS THAT WORK UP
AND OVER BROAD UPPER RIDGE IN GREAT LKS REGION...AND DOWN UPON THE
NORTHEAST. DIFF IS ONLY A FEW DEGREES SO WILL ONLY ETCH UP HIR
ELEV...MAINLY IN NNY...HIGH TEMPS FOR SUNDAY THAN IN ADJACENT
VALLEY LOCALES. SFC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE OFFSHORE LATE
SUNDAY. STILL EXPECT CLRING SKIES OVERNGT FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING...BUT LESS THAN PREVIOUS NGT. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
SLOWLY WORK INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA TOWARDS MORNING. THIS
WILL TRANSLATE TO REST OF CWA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. CLDS ON THE
INCR MONDAY AS LOW WORKS UP ALONG SE COAST. RIDGE IN PLACE OVER
THE NE WILL KEEP SYSTEM AT BAY FOR MONDAY...W/ ONLY SOUTHERN ZONES
SEEING SL CHANCE FOR --RW ON NORTHERN EDGE OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SATURDAY...AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEM MOVES
UP THE ATLANTIC COAST THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN ZONES
INCREASES MON NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN VT AND
EVEN CENTRAL/EASTERN DACKS TUESDAY. FOR MID WEEK THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT OF GUIDANCE WITH HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE
OVER THE HEARTLAND. MORE SPECIFICALLY...WITH THE FUJIWHARA EFFECT
BETWEEN THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW AND PACIFIC ENERGY THAT ENTERS THE
BROAD TROUGH. THE GFS OFFERS A MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION...THOUGH HAS BEEN MUCH MORE INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO
RUN. THE ECMWF`S LESS PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT AND IS THEREFORE FAVORED. UNDER THE ECMWF SOLUTION THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY IS MARKEDLY LESS THAN MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES...AS THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION. THROUGH
DIFFERING SOLUTIONS...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF EVENTUALLY BRING
PRECIPITATION INTO THE NORTHEAST AROUND THE HOLIDAY...ESPECIALLY
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BOTH ALSO BRING THE FIRST TRUE
SEASONAL AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN PLACEMENT OF SFC FEATURES AND THUS
PLACEMENT OF THE COLD AIR...HAVE MAINTAINED THE RAIN/SNOW
FORECAST...EXCEPT AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHICH SHOULD BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN HANGING IN ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS A
LOW LEVEL INVERSION HAS TRAPPED THIS MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
CONDITIONS RANGE FROM VFR CONDITIONS IN VALLEY LOCATIONS TO MVFR
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION. EXPECTING SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER TO
BECOME SCATTERED AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...EXCEPT OVER THE ADIRONDACKS
AND PORTIONS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING SOME FOG AND MIST
TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 05Z SUNDAY...WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS
...AS A HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
ANY FOG OR MVFR CEILINGS WILL DISSIPATE BY 14Z SUNDAY...WITH SKIES BECOMING
MAINLY CLEAR.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FROM 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z
WEDNESDAY...AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.
12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JMG/JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...AMF
AVIATION...WGH

000
FXUS61 KALY 211736
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1236 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN START
TO LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY MORNING...AND PASS
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO MUCH OF OUR REGION STARTING LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AS LAKE EFFECT
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BENEATH A BOUNDARY LAYER INVERSION. AREAS
EAST OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND BERKSHIRES...WHERE SOME
DOWNSLOPE IS OCCURRING...ARE REMAINING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.
INCREASING SKY COVER FOR MANY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SOME
HINTS IN LATEST GUIDANCE THAT SOME AREAS MAY SEE THE CLOUDS BREAK
UP TO SOME DEGREE. SO...GOING MOSTLY CLOUDY IN MANY AREAS. BASED
ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS...CURRENT MAX
TEMPERATURES LOOK IN THE BALL PARK. EVERYTHING ELSE UNTOUCHED.

PREV AFD BELOW...
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY SHRINK ACROSS FA THIS
MORNING AS STRATO CU ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDE
THROUGH FA. LAKE RESPONSE HAS BEEN WEAK AT BEST AND WITH AIRMASS
NOT BEING VERY COLD EXPECT THAT LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS WILL ONLY
LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY
INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN START TO DISSIPATE. WILL KEEP
FORECAST DRY TODAY AND HAVE TEMPS IN MOST AREAS A FEW DEGREES
BELOW YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER FA LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN START TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO CANADA. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

ON SUNDAY EXPECT THAT TEMPS MAYBE A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE
VALLEYS THAN TODAY AS DESPITE NEARLY FULL SUN...ORIENTATION OF
HIGH WILL RESULT IN A WEAK LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND MIXING WILL
BE POOR ONLY UP TO 925 MB. HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING AND THEN
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS LATE AS HIGH CLOUDS START TO LIFT
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. LOWS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE TRANSITION DAY WITH UNCERTAINTY STILL ON
EXACT TRACK AND ORIENTATION OF PCPN SHIELD...GEM APPEARS TO BE
THE FASTEST AND WETTEST WITH NAM NOT FAR BEHIND AS BOTH HAVE
LEADING EDGE OF PCPN SHIELD AT LEAST NORTH OF I90 BEFORE 00Z TUE AND
QPF AMOUNTS OF A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS FA. WHILE GFS
AND ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN AND A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF INTO SE THIRD OF FA BEFORE 00Z TUE.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ON MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF I90
MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MON NT-TUE...STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING NEXT
SYSTEM...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST. THE
GENERAL TREND IN THE MODELS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS HAS BEEN
WEAKER...AND FURTHER S/E WITH THE TRACK. THE 00Z/21 GEM IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...TRACKING IT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...BUT STILL FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING AT LEAST SOME LIGHT RAIN
TO THE S/E HALF OF REGION. THE 00Z/21 GFS IS A BIT FURTHER
S/E...WHILE THE 00Z/21 ECMWF AND AT LEAST HALF OF THE MREFS KEEP
MOST PRECIP OUT OF OUR REGION...JUST CLIPPING FAR SE AREAS LATE MON
NT INTO EARLY TUE. BASED ON THIS LINGERING UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
INDICATED ONLY SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
HALF OF REGION...WHILE KEEPING NORTHERN AREAS DRY. AS FOR
TEMPS...GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GMOS...WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE
30S...AND TUE MAXES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. SHOULD THE
CLOUDS/PRECIP EXTEND FURTHER N/W...EVEN COOLER MAXES ARE POSSIBLE.

TUE NT-WED...WILL INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD...AS
MOST MODELS HINT AT SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...BY LATE WED...ENERGY AND WARM ADVECTION APPROACHING FROM
THE W MAY LEAD TO SOME RAIN BY LATE WED. THUS...HAVE INDICATED SOME
SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS ACROSS SW AREAS FOR LATE WED.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN AREAS...TO THE LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AREAS...WITH OVERNIGHT MINS TUE NT MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

WED NT-FRI...MODELS HINT AT ADDITIONAL PRECIP DURING THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH DIFFER ON THE EXACT TRIGGERING MECHANISMS. THE
00Z/GFS HINTS AT A FASTER WAVE MOVING THROUGH LATE WED INTO WED NT
WITH RAIN...WHILE MOST MREF MEMBERS...AND THE ECMWF DEPICT A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...WHILE ANOTHER SFC LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE SE COAST AND TRACKS
NNE. AT THE VERY LEAST...WILL INDICATE CHC POPS DURING THIS PERIOD
FOR RAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME WET SNOW COULD BE MIXED IN ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS EARLY THU. THEN...AS MID/UPPER LEVEL CONTINUE TO
COOL...WE EXPECT ANY RAIN TO GRADUALLY MIX WITH/CHANGE TO SNOW
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY LATE THU...AND PERHAPS WITHIN VALLEYS BY
THU NT OR EARLY FRI. WHETHER THIS PRECIPITATION IS WIDESPREAD AND
STEADY...OR MORE SCATTERED AND SHOWERY IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT
THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POSSIBILITY FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TO
RECEIVE MEASURABLE SNOW SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD. FOR
TEMPS...EXPECT MINS WED NT TO MAINLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH THU MAXES
MAINLY IN THE 30S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND 40S FOR VALLEYS. FOR
THU NT...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 20S FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER/MID 30S FOR THE VALLEYS...WITH FRI MAXES
RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE
UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S WITHIN THE VALLEYS. IT MAY ALSO BECOME QUITE
WINDY BY FRI...DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF ANY SFC LOW
PASSING TO OUR E OR NE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...MVFR/VFR CLOUD COVER WILL PREVAIL AT
ALB AND GFL AS MOISTURE OFF THE GREAT LAKES IS TRAPPED BELOW AN
INVERSION. THE EDGE OF THE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF KPOU...SO
JUST SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET AT BEST. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWEST AT KGFL...KALB AND KPOU AT 10 KT OR LESS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN...AND BASED ON
SATELLITE TRENDS...CLEARING WILL BUILD FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH
THE NIGHT. CLEARING SHOULD BE AROUND 04Z AT GFL...AND 06Z AT KALB.
ONCE THE SKY SLEARS...AND WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...SOME PATCHY DENSE
FOG COULD FORM...ESPECIALLY AROUND KGFL...THROUGH SUNRISE.

WINDS WILL BE NEARLY CALM...BUT IN SOME AREAS LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHWEST AT 5 KT OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED-THU...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MOST RIVERS HAVE CRESTED AND ARE STARTING TO RECEDE OR WILL CREST
IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. RISES FROM THE RAIN THAT FELL THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WERE GENERALLY 1 TO 2 FEET. AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE IN MOST AREAS
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BUT ALLOT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT
THIS TIME WITH STORM TRACK AND QPF AMOUNTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...NAS

000
FXUS61 KALY 211555
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1055 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN START
TO LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY MORNING...AND PASS
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO MUCH OF OUR REGION STARTING LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AS LAKE EFFECT
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BENEATH A BOUNDARY LAYER INVERSION. AREAS
EAST OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND BERKSHIRES...WHERE SOME
DOWNSLOPE IS OCCURRING...ARE REMAINING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.
INCREASING SKY COVER FOR MANY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SOME
HINTS IN LATEST GUIDANCE THAT SOME AREAS MAY SEE THE CLOUDS BREAK
UP TO SOME DEGREE. SO...GOING MOSTLY CLOUDY IN MANY AREAS. BASED
ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS...CURRENT MAX
TEMPERATURES LOOK IN THE BALL PARK. EVERYTHING ELSE UNTOUCHED.

PREV AFD BELOW...
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY SHRINK ACROSS FA THIS
MORNING AS STRATO CU ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDE
THROUGH FA. LAKE RESPONSE HAS BEEN WEAK AT BEST AND WITH AIRMASS
NOT BEING VERY COLD EXPECT THAT LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS WILL ONLY
LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY
INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN START TO DISSIPATE. WILL KEEP
FORECAST DRY TODAY AND HAVE TEMPS IN MOST AREAS A FEW DEGREES
BELOW YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER FA LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN START TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO CANADA. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

ON SUNDAY EXPECT THAT TEMPS MAYBE A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE
VALLEYS THAN TODAY AS DESPITE NEARLY FULL SUN...ORIENTATION OF
HIGH WILL RESULT IN A WEAK LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND MIXING WILL
BE POOR ONLY UP TO 925 MB. HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING AND THEN
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS LATE AS HIGH CLOUDS START TO LIFT
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. LOWS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE TRANSITION DAY WITH UNCERTAINTY STILL ON
EXACT TRACK AND ORIENTATION OF PCPN SHIELD...GEM APPEARS TO BE
THE FASTEST AND WETTEST WITH NAM NOT FAR BEHIND AS BOTH HAVE
LEADING EDGE OF PCPN SHIELD AT LEAST NORTH OF I90 BEFORE 00Z TUE AND
QPF AMOUNTS OF A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS FA. WHILE GFS
AND ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN AND A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF INTO SE THIRD OF FA BEFORE 00Z TUE.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ON MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF I90
MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MON NT-TUE...STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING NEXT
SYSTEM...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST. THE
GENERAL TREND IN THE MODELS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS HAS BEEN
WEAKER...AND FURTHER S/E WITH THE TRACK. THE 00Z/21 GEM IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...TRACKING IT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...BUT STILL FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING AT LEAST SOME LIGHT RAIN
TO THE S/E HALF OF REGION. THE 00Z/21 GFS IS A BIT FURTHER
S/E...WHILE THE 00Z/21 ECMWF AND AT LEAST HALF OF THE MREFS KEEP
MOST PRECIP OUT OF OUR REGION...JUST CLIPPING FAR SE AREAS LATE MON
NT INTO EARLY TUE. BASED ON THIS LINGERING UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
INDICATED ONLY SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
HALF OF REGION...WHILE KEEPING NORTHERN AREAS DRY. AS FOR
TEMPS...GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GMOS...WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE
30S...AND TUE MAXES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. SHOULD THE
CLOUDS/PRECIP EXTEND FURTHER N/W...EVEN COOLER MAXES ARE POSSIBLE.

TUE NT-WED...WILL INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD...AS
MOST MODELS HINT AT SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...BY LATE WED...ENERGY AND WARM ADVECTION APPROACHING FROM
THE W MAY LEAD TO SOME RAIN BY LATE WED. THUS...HAVE INDICATED SOME
SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS ACROSS SW AREAS FOR LATE WED.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN AREAS...TO THE LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AREAS...WITH OVERNIGHT MINS TUE NT MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

WED NT-FRI...MODELS HINT AT ADDITIONAL PRECIP DURING THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH DIFFER ON THE EXACT TRIGGERING MECHANISMS. THE
00Z/GFS HINTS AT A FASTER WAVE MOVING THROUGH LATE WED INTO WED NT
WITH RAIN...WHILE MOST MREF MEMBERS...AND THE ECMWF DEPICT A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...WHILE ANOTHER SFC LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE SE COAST AND TRACKS
NNE. AT THE VERY LEAST...WILL INDICATE CHC POPS DURING THIS PERIOD
FOR RAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME WET SNOW COULD BE MIXED IN ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS EARLY THU. THEN...AS MID/UPPER LEVEL CONTINUE TO
COOL...WE EXPECT ANY RAIN TO GRADUALLY MIX WITH/CHANGE TO SNOW
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY LATE THU...AND PERHAPS WITHIN VALLEYS BY
THU NT OR EARLY FRI. WHETHER THIS PRECIPITATION IS WIDESPREAD AND
STEADY...OR MORE SCATTERED AND SHOWERY IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT
THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POSSIBILITY FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TO
RECEIVE MEASURABLE SNOW SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD. FOR
TEMPS...EXPECT MINS WED NT TO MAINLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH THU MAXES
MAINLY IN THE 30S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND 40S FOR VALLEYS. FOR
THU NT...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 20S FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER/MID 30S FOR THE VALLEYS...WITH FRI MAXES
RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE
UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S WITHIN THE VALLEYS. IT MAY ALSO BECOME QUITE
WINDY BY FRI...DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF ANY SFC LOW
PASSING TO OUR E OR NE.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

TODAY...MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KGFL AND KALB EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z...BEFORE
RISING TO VFR LEVELS. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF MVFR
CIGS PERSISTING EVEN LONGER. AT KPOU...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE DECREASING ON WHETHER ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS
REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...OR SKIES REMAIN CLEAR WITH PATCHY GROUND
FOG DEVELOPMENT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR
CIGS DEVELOPING AT KGFL AND KALB AFTER 06Z/SUN. AT THIS TIME...DUE
TO LINGERING UNCERTAINTY...WE HAVE INDICATED FEW-SCT CLOUDS BELOW
1000 FT AGL AT KGFL AND KALB AFTER 08Z/SUN...BUT SHOULD MOISTENING
TRENDS CONTINUE IN MODEL GUIDANCE...WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER SOME IFR
CIGS LATER TONIGHT AT THESE TERMINALS. AT KPOU...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR...WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR VSBYS DEVELOPING LATE DUE TO
PATCHY GROUND FOG.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE W TO NW AT 5-10 KT TODAY...BECOMING
LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. SOME GUSTINESS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT
MORNING...ESP AT KALB...POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. IN ADDITION...AT
KGFL...SOME VARIATIONS IN WIND DIRECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO LOCALIZED TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MOST RIVERS HAVE CRESTED AND ARE STARTING TO RECEDE OR WILL CREST
IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. RISES FROM THE RAIN THAT FELL THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WERE GENERALLY 1 TO 2 FEET. AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE IN MOST AREAS
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BUT ALLOT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT
THIS TIME WITH STORM TRACK AND QPF AMOUNTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 211441
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
941 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT
THE REGION TUESDAY...AND AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 941 AM EST SATURDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO THE TODAY AND TONIGHT
PERIOD...MAINLY TO REFLECT MUCH SLOWER EROSION OF PESKY CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENT ACARS DATA FROM CYUL THIS MORNING SHOWING
IMPRESSIVE SYNOPTIC LL INVERSION NEAR 900 MB...WHICH IS ACTING TO
TRAP RESIDUAL LL MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH
OROGRAPHICALLY...ALBEIT LIGHT NORHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS
OUR AREA TODAY...HARD TO DISAGREE W/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING FCSTS
SHOWING LL STRATOCU HANGING TOUGH FOR MOST OF THE DAY...ESP IN THE
NORTHERN MTNS. THUS HAVE OPTED FOR MORE PESSIMISTIC CHCS OF
SUNSHINE TODAY IN THESE AREAS. SOME PEEKS OF SUN MORE LIKELY BY
LATER IN THE DAY IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND PORTIONS OF SC VT. BY
TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER SHOULD SLOWLY THIN/ERODE AS HIGH PRESSURE AND
DEEP LAYER DRYING CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. REST OF FCST IN
EXCELLENT SHAPE IN REGARD TO WIND/TEMPS...SO OTHER THAN SKY COVER
ADJUSTMENTS NOTED ABOVE NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED ATTM.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
REMNANTS OF EXITING SYSTEM CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL DOWN ACROSS THE CWA
THIS MORNING...AS LL CLD COVER BLANKETS THE CWA. THIS EXITING LOW
OVER THE MARITIMES WILL GIVE WAY TO BROAD SFC RIDGE...WHICH IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST. EXPECTING INVERSION TO DEVELOP DURING
THE DAY AS RIDGE BUILDS EAST. AS A RESULT...LL CLDS WILL REMAIN OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA BFR BREAKING LATE IN THE DAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL
BE LEFT OVER FOR MENTION OF --RW OVER HIR TRRN. TEMPS WILL BE
CONSTRAINED FROM EXTENSIVE CLDS...SO HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.
GOING INTO THE EVENING HRS...SKIES WILL CLR OUT ALLOWING FOR TEMPS
TO DROP W/RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EST SATURDAY...NICE WX CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY AS RIDGE
CRESTS OVER THE REGION. INVERSION WILL REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE CWA
DURING SUNDAY. THIS IS EVIDENT IN LATEST 850 TEMPS THAT WORK UP
AND OVER BROAD UPPER RIDGE IN GREAT LKS REGION...AND DOWN UPON THE
NORTHEAST. DIFF IS ONLY A FEW DEGREES SO WILL ONLY ETCH UP HIR
ELEV...MAINLY IN NNY...HIGH TEMPS FOR SUNDAY THAN IN ADJACENT
VALLEY LOCALES. SFC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE OFFSHORE LATE
SUNDAY. STILL EXPECT CLRING SKIES OVERNGT FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING...BUT LESS THAN PREVIOUS NGT. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
SLOWLY WORK INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA TOWARDS MORNING. THIS
WILL TRANSLATE TO REST OF CWA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. CLDS ON THE
INCR MONDAY AS LOW WORKS UP ALONG SE COAST. RIDGE IN PLACE OVER
THE NE WILL KEEP SYSTEM AT BAY FOR MONDAY...W/ ONLY SOUTHERN ZONES
SEEING SL CHANCE FOR --RW ON NORTHERN EDGE OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SATURDAY...AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEM MOVES
UP THE ATLANTIC COAST THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN ZONES
INCREASES MON NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN VT AND
EVEN CENTRAL/EASTERN DACKS TUESDAY. FOR MID WEEK THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT OF GUIDANCE WITH HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE
OVER THE HEARTLAND. MORE SPECIFICALLY...WITH THE FUJIWHARA EFFECT
BETWEEN THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW AND PACIFIC ENERGY THAT ENTERS THE
BROAD TROUGH. THE GFS OFFERS A MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION...THOUGH HAS BEEN MUCH MORE INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO
RUN. THE ECMWF`S LESS PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT AND IS THEREFORE FAVORED. UNDER THE ECMWF SOLUTION THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY IS MARKEDLY LESS THAN MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES...AS THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION. THROUGH
DIFFERING SOLUTIONS...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF EVENTUALLY BRING
PRECIPITATION INTO THE NORTHEAST AROUND THE HOLIDAY...ESPECIALLY
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BOTH ALSO BRING THE FIRST TRUE
SEASONAL AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN PLACEMENT OF SFC FEATURES AND THUS
PLACEMENT OF THE COLD AIR...HAVE MAINTAINED THE RAIN/SNOW
FORECAST...EXCEPT AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHICH SHOULD BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH
IFR AT KSLK. EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING
AROUND 18Z...IMPROVING TO VFR EVENTUALLY SCT LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE OBSCURED IN CLOUDS THROUGH 18Z. SOME AREAS
OF SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 20 KTS OR GREATER THIS MORNING...NOTABLY
AT KMPV...BUT WILL DIMINISH BY 14Z. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE W TO
NW AROUND 10 KTS...DIMINISHING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 02Z
SUNDAY. LOOK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO FORM AFTER 05Z SUNDAY AT
PRONE LOCATIONS LIKE KMPV AND KSLK WITH MVFR VIS.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MVFR VIS POSSLIBLE AT KMPV
AND KSLK WITH BR THROUGH 14Z SUNDAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN TERRAINE OF SE VT TUE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JMG/JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...AMF
AVIATION...AMF/RJS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 211206
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
706 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT
THE REGION TUESDAY...AND AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 312 AM EST SATURDAY...REMNANTS OF EXITING SYSTEM CONTINUE TO
PINWHEEL DOWN ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING...AS LL CLD COVER
BLANKETS THE CWA. THIS EXITING LOW OVER THE MARITIMES WILL GIVE
WAY TO BROAD SFC RIDGE...WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST.
EXPECTING INVERSION TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AS RIDGE BUILDS
EAST. AS A RESULT...LL CLDS WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE CWA BFR
BREAKING LATE IN THE DAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LEFT OVER FOR
MENTION OF --RW OVER HIR TRRN. TEMPS WILL BE CONSTRAINED FROM
EXTENSIVE CLDS...SO HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE. GOING INTO THE
EVENING HRS...SKIES WILL CLR OUT ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO DROP W/
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EST SATURDAY...NICE WX CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY AS RIDGE
CRESTS OVER THE REGION. INVERSION WILL REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE CWA
DURING SUNDAY. THIS IS EVIDENT IN LATEST 850 TEMPS THAT WORK UP
AND OVER BROAD UPPER RIDGE IN GREAT LKS REGION...AND DOWN UPON THE
NORTHEAST. DIFF IS ONLY A FEW DEGREES SO WILL ONLY ETCH UP HIR
ELEV...MAINLY IN NNY...HIGH TEMPS FOR SUNDAY THAN IN ADJACENT
VALLEY LOCALES. SFC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE OFFSHORE LATE
SUNDAY. STILL EXPECT CLRING SKIES OVERNGT FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING...BUT LESS THAN PREVIOUS NGT. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
SLOWLY WORK INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA TOWARDS MORNING. THIS
WILL TRANSLATE TO REST OF CWA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. CLDS ON THE
INCR MONDAY AS LOW WORKS UP ALONG SE COAST. RIDGE IN PLACE OVER
THE NE WILL KEEP SYSTEM AT BAY FOR MONDAY...W/ ONLY SOUTHERN ZONES
SEEING SL CHANCE FOR --RW ON NORTHERN EDGE OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SATURDAY...AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEM MOVES
UP THE ATLANTIC COAST THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN ZONES
INCREASES MON NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN VT AND
EVEN CENTRAL/EASTERN DACKS TUESDAY. FOR MID WEEK THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT OF GUIDANCE WITH HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE
OVER THE HEARTLAND. MORE SPECIFICALLY...WITH THE FUJIWHARA EFFECT
BETWEEN THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW AND PACIFIC ENERGY THAT ENTERS THE
BROAD TROUGH. THE GFS OFFERS A MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION...THOUGH HAS BEEN MUCH MORE INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO
RUN. THE ECMWF`S LESS PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT AND IS THEREFORE FAVORED. UNDER THE ECMWF SOLUTION THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY IS MARKEDLY LESS THAN MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES...AS THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION. THROUGH
DIFFERING SOLUTIONS...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF EVENTUALLY BRING
PRECIPITATION INTO THE NORTHEAST AROUND THE HOLIDAY...ESPECIALLY
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BOTH ALSO BRING THE FIRST TRUE
SEASONAL AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN PLACEMENT OF SFC FEATURES AND THUS
PLACEMENT OF THE COLD AIR...HAVE MAINTAINED THE RAIN/SNOW
FORECAST...EXCEPT AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHICH SHOULD BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
IFR AT KSLK. EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING
AROUND 18Z...IMPROVING TO VFR EVENTUALLY SCT LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE OBSCURED IN CLOUDS THROUGH 18Z. SOME AREAS
OF SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 20 KTS OR GREATER THIS MORNING...NOTABLY
AT KMPV...BUT WILL DIMINISH BY 14Z. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE W TO
NW AROUND 10 KTS...DIMINISHING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 02Z
SUNDAY. LOOK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO FORM AFTER 05Z SUNDAY AT
PRONE LOCATIONS LIKE KMPV AND KSLK WITH MVFR VIS.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MVFR VIS POSSLIBLE AT KMPV
AND KSLK WITH BR THROUGH 14Z SUNDAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN TERRAINE OF SE VT TUE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...AMF
AVIATION...AMF/RJS

000
FXUS61 KALY 211119
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
613 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN START
TO LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY MORNING...AND PASS
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO MUCH OF OUR REGION STARTING LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY SHRINK ACROSS FA THIS MORNING AS STRATO CU
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDE THROUGH FA. LAKE RESPONSE
HAS BEEN WEAK AT BEST AND WITH AIRMASS NOT BEING VERY COLD EXPECT
THAT LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS WILL ONLY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN START TO DISSIPATE. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY TODAY AND HAVE
TEMPS IN MOST AREAS A FEW DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER FA LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN START TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO CANADA. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

ON SUNDAY EXPECT THAT TEMPS MAYBE A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE
VALLEYS THAN TODAY AS DESPITE NEARLY FULL SUN...ORIENTATION OF
HIGH WILL RESULT IN A WEAK LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND MIXING WILL
BE POOR ONLY UP TO 925 MB. HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING AND THEN
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS LATE AS HIGH CLOUDS START TO LIFT
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. LOWS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE TRANSITION DAY WITH UNCERTAINTY STILL ON
EXACT TRACK AND ORIENTATION OF PCPN SHIELD...GEM APPEARS TO BE
THE FASTEST AND WETTEST WITH NAM NOT FAR BEHIND AS BOTH HAVE
LEADING EDGE OF PCPN SHIELD AT LEAST NORTH OF I90 BEFORE 00Z TUE AND
QPF AMOUNTS OF A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS FA. WHILE GFS
AND ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN AND A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF INTO SE THIRD OF FA BEFORE 00Z TUE.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ON MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF I90
MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MON NT-TUE...STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING NEXT
SYSTEM...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST. THE
GENERAL TREND IN THE MODELS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS HAS BEEN
WEAKER...AND FURTHER S/E WITH THE TRACK. THE 00Z/21 GEM IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...TRACKING IT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...BUT STILL FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING AT LEAST SOME LIGHT RAIN
TO THE S/E HALF OF REGION. THE 00Z/21 GFS IS A BIT FURTHER
S/E...WHILE THE 00Z/21 ECMWF AND AT LEAST HALF OF THE MREFS KEEP
MOST PRECIP OUT OF OUR REGION...JUST CLIPPING FAR SE AREAS LATE MON
NT INTO EARLY TUE. BASED ON THIS LINGERING UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
INDICATED ONLY SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
HALF OF REGION...WHILE KEEPING NORTHERN AREAS DRY. AS FOR
TEMPS...GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GMOS...WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE
30S...AND TUE MAXES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. SHOULD THE
CLOUDS/PRECIP EXTEND FURTHER N/W...EVEN COOLER MAXES ARE POSSIBLE.

TUE NT-WED...WILL INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD...AS
MOST MODELS HINT AT SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...BY LATE WED...ENERGY AND WARM ADVECTION APPROACHING FROM
THE W MAY LEAD TO SOME RAIN BY LATE WED. THUS...HAVE INDICATED SOME
SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS ACROSS SW AREAS FOR LATE WED.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN AREAS...TO THE LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AREAS...WITH OVERNIGHT MINS TUE NT MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

WED NT-FRI...MODELS HINT AT ADDITIONAL PRECIP DURING THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH DIFFER ON THE EXACT TRIGGERING MECHANISMS. THE
00Z/GFS HINTS AT A FASTER WAVE MOVING THROUGH LATE WED INTO WED NT
WITH RAIN...WHILE MOST MREF MEMBERS...AND THE ECMWF DEPICT A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...WHILE ANOTHER SFC LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE SE COAST AND TRACKS
NNE. AT THE VERY LEAST...WILL INDICATE CHC POPS DURING THIS PERIOD
FOR RAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME WET SNOW COULD BE MIXED IN ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS EARLY THU. THEN...AS MID/UPPER LEVEL CONTINUE TO
COOL...WE EXPECT ANY RAIN TO GRADUALLY MIX WITH/CHANGE TO SNOW
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY LATE THU...AND PERHAPS WITHIN VALLEYS BY
THU NT OR EARLY FRI. WHETHER THIS PRECIPITATION IS WIDESPREAD AND
STEADY...OR MORE SCATTERED AND SHOWERY IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT
THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POSSIBILITY FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TO
RECEIVE MEASURABLE SNOW SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD. FOR
TEMPS...EXPECT MINS WED NT TO MAINLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH THU MAXES
MAINLY IN THE 30S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND 40S FOR VALLEYS. FOR
THU NT...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 20S FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER/MID 30S FOR THE VALLEYS...WITH FRI MAXES
RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE
UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S WITHIN THE VALLEYS. IT MAY ALSO BECOME QUITE
WINDY BY FRI...DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF ANY SFC LOW
PASSING TO OUR E OR NE.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

TODAY...MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KGFL AND KALB EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z...BEFORE
RISING TO VFR LEVELS. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF MVFR
CIGS PERSISTING EVEN LONGER. AT KPOU...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE DECREASING ON WHETHER ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS
REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...OR SKIES REMAIN CLEAR WITH PATCHY GROUND
FOG DEVELOPMENT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR
CIGS DEVELOPING AT KGFL AND KALB AFTER 06Z/SUN. AT THIS TIME...DUE
TO LINGERING UNCERTAINTY...WE HAVE INDICATED FEW-SCT CLOUDS BELOW
1000 FT AGL AT KGFL AND KALB AFTER 08Z/SUN...BUT SHOULD MOISTENING
TRENDS CONTINUE IN MODEL GUIDANCE...WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER SOME IFR
CIGS LATER TONIGHT AT THESE TERMINALS. AT KPOU...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR...WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR VSBYS DEVELOPING LATE DUE TO
PATCHY GROUND FOG.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE W TO NW AT 5-10 KT TODAY...BECOMING
LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. SOME GUSTINESS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT
MORNING...ESP AT KALB...POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. IN ADDITION...AT
KGFL...SOME VARIATIONS IN WIND DIRECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO LOCALIZED TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MOST RIVERS HAVE CRESTED AND ARE STARTING TO RECEDE OR WILL CREST
IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. RISES FROM THE RAIN THAT FELL THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WERE GENERALLY 1 TO 2 FEET. AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE IN MOST AREAS
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BUT ALLOT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT
THIS TIME WITH STORM TRACK AND QPF AMOUNTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11

000
FXUS61 KBTV 210957
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
457 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT
THE REGION TUESDAY...AND AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 312 AM EST SATURDAY...REMNANTS OF EXITING SYSTEM CONTINUE TO
PINWHEEL DOWN ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING...AS LL CLD COVER
BLANKETS THE CWA. THIS EXITING LOW OVER THE MARITIMES WILL GIVE
WAY TO BROAD SFC RIDGE...WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST.
EXPECTING INVERSION TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AS RIDGE BUILDS
EAST. AS A RESULT...LL CLDS WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE CWA BFR
BREAKING LATE IN THE DAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LEFT OVER FOR
MENTION OF --RW OVER HIR TRRN. TEMPS WILL BE CONSTRAINED FROM
EXTENSIVE CLDS...SO HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE. GOING INTO THE
EVENING HRS...SKIES WILL CLR OUT ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO DROP W/
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EST SATURDAY...NICE WX CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY AS RIDGE
CRESTS OVER THE REGION. INVERSION WILL REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE CWA
DURING SUNDAY. THIS IS EVIDENT IN LATEST 850 TEMPS THAT WORK UP
AND OVER BROAD UPPER RIDGE IN GREAT LKS REGION...AND DOWN UPON THE
NORTHEAST. DIFF IS ONLY A FEW DEGREES SO WILL ONLY ETCH UP HIR
ELEV...MAINLY IN NNY...HIGH TEMPS FOR SUNDAY THAN IN ADJACENT
VALLEY LOCALES. SFC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE OFFSHORE LATE
SUNDAY. STILL EXPECT CLRING SKIES OVERNGT FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING...BUT LESS THAN PREVIOUS NGT. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
SLOWLY WORK INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA TOWARDS MORNING. THIS
WILL TRANSLATE TO REST OF CWA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. CLDS ON THE
INCR MONDAY AS LOW WORKS UP ALONG SE COAST. RIDGE IN PLACE OVER
THE NE WILL KEEP SYSTEM AT BAY FOR MONDAY...W/ ONLY SOUTHERN ZONES
SEEING SL CHANCE FOR --RW ON NORTHERN EDGE OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SATURDAY...AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEM MOVES
UP THE ATLANTIC COAST THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN ZONES
INCREASES MON NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN VT AND
EVEN CENTRAL/EASTERN DACKS TUESDAY. FOR MID WEEK THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT OF GUIDANCE WITH HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE
OVER THE HEARTLAND. MORE SPECIFICALLY...WITH THE FUJIWHARA EFFECT
BETWEEN THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW AND PACIFIC ENERGY THAT ENTERS THE
BROAD TROUGH. THE GFS OFFERS A MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION...THOUGH HAS BEEN MUCH MORE INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO
RUN. THE ECMWF`S LESS PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT AND IS THEREFORE FAVORED. UNDER THE ECMWF SOLUTION THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY IS MARKEDLY LESS THAN MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES...AS THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION. THROUGH
DIFFERING SOLUTIONS...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF EVENTUALLY BRING
PRECIPITATION INTO THE NORTHEAST AROUND THE HOLIDAY...ESPECIALLY
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BOTH ALSO BRING THE FIRST TRUE
SEASONAL AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN PLACEMENT OF SFC FEATURES AND THUS
PLACEMENT OF THE COLD AIR...HAVE MAINTAINED THE RAIN/SNOW
FORECAST...EXCEPT AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHICH SHOULD BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW.


&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AT MOST TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WITH
IFR AT KSLK. EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING
SATURDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE
OBSCURED IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME AREAS OF SURFACE WIND
GUSTS OF 20 KTS OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND 08Z. WINDS
WILL BE W TO NW AROUND 10 KTS DURING SATURDAY...DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE NIGHT TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 02Z SUNDAY. LOOK FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO FORM AFTER 05Z SUNDAY AT PRONE LOCATIONS
LIKE KMPV AND KSLK WITH MVFR VIS.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MVFR VIS POSSLIBLE AT KMPV
AND KSLK WITH BR THROUGH 13Z SUNDAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE
UNDER GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...AMF
AVIATION...AMF/RJS

000
FXUS61 KALY 210908
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
408 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN START
TO LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY MORNING...AND PASS
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO MUCH OF OUR REGION STARTING LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY SHRINK ACROSS FA THIS MORNING AS STRATO CU
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDE THROUGH FA. LAKE RESPONSE
HAS BEEN WEAK AT BEST AND WITH AIRMASS NOT BEING VERY COLD EXPECT
THAT LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS WILL ONLY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN START TO DISSIPATE. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY TODAY AND HAVE
TEMPS IN MOST AREAS A FEW DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER FA LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN START TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO CANADA. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

ON SUNDAY EXPECT THAT TEMPS MAYBE A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE
VALLEYS THAN TODAY AS DESPITE NEARLY FULL SUN...ORIENTATION OF
HIGH WILL RESULT IN A WEAK LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND MIXING WILL
BE POOR ONLY UP TO 925 MB. HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING AND THEN
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS LATE AS HIGH CLOUDS START TO LIFT
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. LOWS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE TRANSITION DAY WITH UNCERTAINTY STILL ON
EXACT TRACK AND ORIENTATION OF PCPN SHIELD...GEM APPEARS TO BE
THE FASTEST AND WETTEST WITH NAM NOT FAR BEHIND AS BOTH HAVE
LEADING EDGE OF PCPN SHIELD AT LEAST NORTH OF I90 BEFORE 00Z TUE AND
QPF AMOUNTS OF A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS FA. WHILE GFS
AND ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN AND A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF INTO SE THIRD OF FA BEFORE 00Z TUE.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ON MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF I90
MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MON NT-TUE...STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING NEXT
SYSTEM...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST. THE
GENERAL TREND IN THE MODELS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS HAS BEEN
WEAKER...AND FURTHER S/E WITH THE TRACK. THE 00Z/21 GEM IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...TRACKING IT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...BUT STILL FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING AT LEAST SOME LIGHT RAIN
TO THE S/E HALF OF REGION. THE 00Z/21 GFS IS A BIT FURTHER
S/E...WHILE THE 00Z/21 ECMWF AND AT LEAST HALF OF THE MREFS KEEP
MOST PRECIP OUT OF OUR REGION...JUST CLIPPING FAR SE AREAS LATE MON
NT INTO EARLY TUE. BASED ON THIS LINGERING UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
INDICATED ONLY SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
HALF OF REGION...WHILE KEEPING NORTHERN AREAS DRY. AS FOR
TEMPS...GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GMOS...WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE
30S...AND TUE MAXES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. SHOULD THE
CLOUDS/PRECIP EXTEND FURTHER N/W...EVEN COOLER MAXES ARE POSSIBLE.

TUE NT-WED...WILL INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD...AS
MOST MODELS HINT AT SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...BY LATE WED...ENERGY AND WARM ADVECTION APPROACHING FROM
THE W MAY LEAD TO SOME RAIN BY LATE WED. THUS...HAVE INDICATED SOME
SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS ACROSS SW AREAS FOR LATE WED.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN AREAS...TO THE LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AREAS...WITH OVERNIGHT MINS TUE NT MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

WED NT-FRI...MODELS HINT AT ADDITIONAL PRECIP DURING THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH DIFFER ON THE EXACT TRIGGERING MECHANISMS. THE
00Z/GFS HINTS AT A FASTER WAVE MOVING THROUGH LATE WED INTO WED NT
WITH RAIN...WHILE MOST MREF MEMBERS...AND THE ECMWF DEPICT A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...WHILE ANOTHER SFC LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE SE COAST AND TRACKS
NNE. AT THE VERY LEAST...WILL INDICATE CHC POPS DURING THIS PERIOD
FOR RAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME WET SNOW COULD BE MIXED IN ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS EARLY THU. THEN...AS MID/UPPER LEVEL CONTINUE TO
COOL...WE EXPECT ANY RAIN TO GRADUALLY MIX WITH/CHANGE TO SNOW
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY LATE THU...AND PERHAPS WITHIN VALLEYS BY
THU NT OR EARLY FRI. WHETHER THIS PRECIPITATION IS WIDESPREAD AND
STEADY...OR MORE SCATTERED AND SHOWERY IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT
THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POSSIBILITY FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TO
RECEIVE MEASURABLE SNOW SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD. FOR
TEMPS...EXPECT MINS WED NT TO MAINLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH THU MAXES
MAINLY IN THE 30S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND 40S FOR VALLEYS. FOR
THU NT...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 20S FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER/MID 30S FOR THE VALLEYS...WITH FRI MAXES
RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE
UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S WITHIN THE VALLEYS. IT MAY ALSO BECOME QUITE
WINDY BY FRI...DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF ANY SFC LOW
PASSING TO OUR E OR NE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY EVENING...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS
POSSIBLE AT KGFL THROUGH ABOUT 14Z/SAT. HOWEVER...DUE TO LOW
PROBABILITY...HAVE NOT INDICATED THIS IN 06Z/SAT TAF ISSUANCE.

SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD DEVELOP PRIOR TO 06Z/SUN AT KGFL DUE TO
GROUND FOG FORMATION...WITH A BETTER CHANCE EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE W TO NW AT 5-10 KT TODAY...BECOMING
LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. SOME GUSTINESS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT
MORNING...ESP AT KALB...POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. IN ADDITION...AT
KGFL...SOME VARIATIONS IN WIND DIRECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO LOCALIZED TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MOST RIVERS HAVE CRESTED AND ARE STARTING TO RECEDE OR WILL CREST
IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. RISES FROM THE RAIN THAT FELL THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WERE GENERALLY 1 TO 2 FEET. AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE IN MOST AREAS
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BUT ALLOT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT
THIS TIME WITH STORM TRACK AND QPF AMOUNTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11

000
FXUS61 KBTV 210812
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
312 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT
THE REGION TUESDAY...AND AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 312 AM EST SATURDAY...REMNANTS OF EXITING SYSTEM CONTINUE TO
PINWHEEL DOWN ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING...AS LL CLD COVER
BLANKETS THE CWA. THIS EXITING LOW OVER THE MARITIMES WILL GIVE
WAY TO BROAD SFC RIDGE...WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST.
EXPECTING INVERSION TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AS RIDGE BUILDS
EAST. AS A RESULT...LL CLDS WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE CWA BFR
BREAKING LATE IN THE DAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LEFT OVER FOR
MENTION OF --RW OVER HIR TRRN. TEMPS WILL BE CONSTRAINED FROM
EXTENSIVE CLDS...SO HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE. GOING INTO THE
EVENING HRS...SKIES WILL CLR OUT ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO DROP W/
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EST SATURDAY...NICE WX CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY AS RIDGE
CRESTS OVER THE REGION. INVERSION WILL REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE CWA
DURING SUNDAY. THIS IS EVIDENT IN LATEST 850 TEMPS THAT WORK UP
AND OVER BROAD UPPER RIDGE IN GREAT LKS REGION...AND DOWN UPON THE
NORTHEAST. DIFF IS ONLY A FEW DEGREES SO WILL ONLY ETCH UP HIR
ELEV...MAINLY IN NNY...HIGH TEMPS FOR SUNDAY THAN IN ADJACENT
VALLEY LOCALES. SFC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE OFFSHORE LATE
SUNDAY. STILL EXPECT CLRING SKIES OVERNGT FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING...BUT LESS THAN PREVIOUS NGT. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
SLOWLY WORK INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA TOWARDS MORNING. THIS
WILL TRANSLATE TO REST OF CWA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. CLDS ON THE
INCR MONDAY AS LOW WORKS UP ALONG SE COAST. RIDGE IN PLACE OVER
THE NE WILL KEEP SYSTEM AT BAY FOR MONDAY...W/ ONLY SOUTHERN ZONES
SEEING SL CHANCE FOR --RW ON NORTHERN EDGE OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD ON MONDAY. ON MONDAY THE GFS MODEL TAKES A WEAK LOW ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY MORNING AND THEN BRING THIS LOW INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z TUESDAY. 12Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF MODELS
KEEP A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY...WITH THE
ECMWF MODEL KEEPING THIS HIGH IN PLACE OVER THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE GFS MODEL APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH
THIS LOW. THUS...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE 12Z ECMWF FORECAST
SOLUTION AND WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THIS MODEL KEEPS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION.

ON THANKSGIVING DAY...12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF MODELS SHOWING RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. BOTH MODELS SHOW
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...GFS MODEL COLDER THEN THE ECMWF THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...SO UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO PRECIPITATION TYPE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. 12Z ECMWF MODEL MUCH WARMER THAN THE GFS AND
IMPLIES MAINLY RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY... WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

HAVE GONE LOWER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR POPS MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AT MOST TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WITH
IFR AT KSLK. EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING
SATURDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE
OBSCURED IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME AREAS OF SURFACE WIND
GUSTS OF 20 KTS OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND 08Z. WINDS
WILL BE W TO NW AROUND 10 KTS DURING SATURDAY...DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE NIGHT TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 02Z SUNDAY. LOOK FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO FORM AFTER 05Z SUNDAY AT PRONE LOCATIONS
LIKE KMPV AND KSLK WITH MVFR VIS.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MVFR VIS POSSLIBLE AT KMPV
AND KSLK WITH BR THROUGH 13Z SUNDAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE
UNDER GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...AMF/RJS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 210635
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
135 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ENDING.
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY PERSIST WELL INTO SATURDAY
HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WHERE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HANG TOUGH. THEREAFTER...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ATOP THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH MAINLY FAIR
SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 925 PM EST FRIDAY...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING...MAINLY TO FRESHEN UP THE WORDING. SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES DENSE CLOUD COVER WELL UPSTREAM INTO ONTARIO...SO ALSO
UPPED CLOUD COVER TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OR CLOUDY IN ALL AREAS. MUCH OF
THE EARLIER SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED THIS EVENING...BUT
STILL A FEW RETURNS APPEARING ON RADAR. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
STILL IN THE VICINITY AND WINDS FAVORABLE FOR UPSLOPE ESPECIALLY
IN THE NORTHERN GREENS...KEPT THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...REMOVED MENTION OF SNOW FROM THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AS THICK CLOUD COVER SHOULD PROHIBIT TEMPERATURES FROM
DROPPING MUCH BELOW THE UPPER 30S. OTHERWISE THE GOING FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CURRENT FCST IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. UPPER LVL LOW PRESSURE
SWINGING BY NORTH OF CYUL THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE PULLING
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LINGERING LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL THIN THROUGH TIME...THOUGH WITH PASSG OF UPPER
500 MB TROUGH AXIS AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WILL CONTINUE WITH AT
LEAST CHC POPS FOR OUR NRN MTNS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS MAINLY DRY CONDS EXPECTED AS WELL
MIXED BNDRY LYR COMBINED WITH MEAN WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT SHOULD
ENSURE COMPRESSIONAL/DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS. TEMPS FAIRLY UNIFORM
GIVEN ONLY MARGINAL COLD AIR ADVECTIVE PROCESSES AND AT LEAST A
DECENT DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER. THUS STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO MOS
GUIDANCE HERE... OFFERING MINS GENERALLY FROM THE MID 30S TO THE
LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM EST FRIDAY...THEN MAINLY QUIET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT BUILDS
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL STATES. CLOUDS MAY PROVE A TAD SLUGGISH TO
DEPART NRN AREAS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS
RESIDUAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY FLATTENS...OTW EXPECT SKIES TO
TREND MAINLY CLR BY SATURDAY EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE OFFERED MAX TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABV
SEASONAL NORMS HERE BASED OFF 925 MB TEMPS AND THE EXPECTED CLEARING
TREND...THOUGH HAVE UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIODS AS RADIATIVE EFFECTS DOMINATE UNDER LIGHT WINDS. OVERALL
ANOTHER NICE NOVEMBER WEEKEND ON TAP WITH NO PCPN...INCREASING
SUNSHINE...AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD ON MONDAY. ON MONDAY THE GFS MODEL TAKES A WEAK LOW ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY MORNING AND THEN BRING THIS LOW INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z TUESDAY. 12Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF MODELS
KEEP A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY...WITH THE
ECMWF MODEL KEEPING THIS HIGH IN PLACE OVER THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE GFS MODEL APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH
THIS LOW. THUS...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE 12Z ECMWF FORECAST
SOLUTION AND WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THIS MODEL KEEPS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION.

ON THANKSGIVING DAY...12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF MODELS SHOWING RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. BOTH MODELS SHOW
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...GFS MODEL COLDER THEN THE ECMWF THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...SO UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO PRECIPITATION TYPE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. 12Z ECMWF MODEL MUCH WARMER THAN THE GFS AND
IMPLIES MAINLY RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY... WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

HAVE GONE LOWER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR POPS MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AT MOST TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WITH
IFR AT KSLK. EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING
SATURDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE
OBSCURED IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME AREAS OF SURFACE WIND
GUSTS OF 20 KTS OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND 08Z. WINDS
WILL BE W TO NW AROUND 10 KTS DURING SATURDAY...DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE NIGHT TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 02Z SUNDAY. LOOK FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO FORM AFTER 05Z SUNDAY AT PRONE LOCATIONS
LIKE KMPV AND KSLK WITH MVFR VIS.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MVFR VIS POSSLIBLE AT KMPV
AND KSLK WITH BR THROUGH 13Z SUNDAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE
UNDER GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/MB
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...AMF/RJS

000
FXUS61 KALY 210526
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1219 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY OVERNIGHT FROM NEAR MONTREAL TO LABRADOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY FROM THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATED DEW POINT...POPS AND SKY COVER GRIDS. INCREASED CLOUDS
SLIGHTLY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING TO REPRESENT OVC SKIES ESP OVER
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTH COUNTRY. EVEN THOUGH SKY GRIDS
INCREASED...TEMPS AND MIN TEMP STILL ON TARGET. DECREASED POPS AS
RADAR SHOWS DECREASING DBZS ACROSS HERKIMER AND HAMILTON
COUNTIES...AND UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
AREA..WITH WINDS SHOWING A SLIGHT AND GRADUAL DECREASE.
OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSING TO OUR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. WILL BE UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW TONIGHT ALONG WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT. HAVE KEPT CHANCE
POPS NORTH AND WEST OF CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FOR THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT...IN THE 30S. LOOKING
AT RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. WESTERLY FLOW WEAKENS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE WEEKEND WE HAVE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. A SERIES OF 500 HPA
SHORT WAVES PRODUCE A TROFF FM YUL TO ORD ACROSS THE GRTLKS
RGN...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SFC OVER THE MIDWEST AND
GRTLKS. MODELS SHOW AN AREA OF HI RH MAINLY WELL WEST OF FCA...BUT
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN PS CONDS SAT. THIS AREA DYNAMICS DRYS OVER
TIME AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER FCA...AND WEAK
500HPA TROF AXIS SLIDES SE OF RGN SAT NIGHT. SUNDAY WOULD BRING
M.S. CONDS AS 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE GRTLKS AND SFC HIGH IS
OVER RGN. WITH LT WINDS AND A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE...PARTICULARLY
SUNDAY...WEEKEND SHOULD BRING NR TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMALS TEMPS
WITH MID 40S TO MID 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE MDLS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE
DEVELOPMENT...TIMING AND TRACK OF A COASTAL LOW. HPC...NAM...AND
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL SUPPRESSED TO OUT
SOUTH RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...AND PS-MS
CONDS MUCH OF MONDAY. BGM PLANS ON SLOWING THE PCPN THREAT
CONSIDERABLY IN THIS PERIOD AND BTV WILL KEEP IT DRY AND FAIR AS
WE WILL WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. WITH CLEAR
SKIES STARTED WITH COLD MET TEMPS AND TOOK THEM A FEW DEGREES
LOWED SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH MORE SUN ON MON

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OPERATIONAL GFS OUTLIER IN GUIDANCE WITH COASTAL LOW MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. ECMWF KEEPS FA DRY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS IN PLACE. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST...WITH A POSITIVE TILT BY LATE FRIDAY. PRECIP
MOVING OUT OF THE FA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING LOW TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE M/U30S
IN THE VALLEYS AND L30S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WARMING TO THE
M50S IN THE VALLEYS AND M/U40S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE
DAY. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
BEFORE THE PRECIP SLOWLY MOVES ITS WAY IN ON THURSDAY. THURSDAY
MAX TEMPS IN THE M40S IN THE VALLEYS AND U30S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH ANY PRECIP DURING THE DAY AS RAIN...WITH SPOTS OF
-RASN ABV 2500FT. COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO
RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW AND ALL SNOW AT TIMES. THURSDAY NIGHT
EXPECTING RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEYS AND SNOW AT ELEVATIONS
500FT AND ABV. WITH CONDITIONS DRYING LATE FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES
A BIT COOLER ON FRIDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE L/M40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND M/U30S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY EVENING...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS
POSSIBLE AT KGFL THROUGH ABOUT 14Z/SAT. HOWEVER...DUE TO LOW
PROBABILITY...HAVE NOT INDICATED THIS IN 06Z/SAT TAF ISSUANCE.

SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD DEVELOP PRIOR TO 06Z/SUN AT KGFL DUE TO
GROUND FOG FORMATION...WITH A BETTER CHANCE EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE W TO NW AT 5-10 KT TODAY...BECOMING
LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. SOME GUSTINESS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT
MORNING...ESP AT KALB...POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. IN ADDITION...AT
KGFL...SOME VARIATIONS IN WIND DIRECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO LOCALIZED TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WATER LEVELS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RISE ANOTHER HALF OF A FOOT
OR LESS IN REACTION TO LAST NIGHT/S RAINFALL. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. WATER
LEVELS WILL THEN REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR RECEDE. OUR NEXT CHANCES
FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGS/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/KGS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...KGS
AVIATION...KL/KGS/IAA
HYDROLOGY...KGS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 210330
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1030 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ENDING.
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY PERSIST WELL INTO SATURDAY
HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WHERE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HANG TOUGH. THEREAFTER...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ATOP THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH MAINLY FAIR
SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 925 PM EST FRIDAY...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING...MAINLY TO FRESHEN UP THE WORDING. SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES DENSE CLOUD COVER WELL UPSTREAM INTO ONTARIO...SO ALSO
UPPED CLOUD COVER TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OR CLOUDY IN ALL AREAS. MUCH OF
THE EARLIER SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED THIS EVENING...BUT
STILL A FEW RETURNS APPEARING ON RADAR. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
STILL IN THE VICINITY AND WINDS FAVORABLE FOR UPSLOPE ESPECIALLY
IN THE NORTHERN GREENS...KEPT THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...REMOVED MENTION OF SNOW FROM THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AS THICK CLOUD COVER SHOULD PROHIBIT TEMPERATURES FROM
DROPPING MUCH BELOW THE UPPER 30S. OTHERWISE THE GOING FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CURRENT FCST IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. UPPER LVL LOW PRESSURE
SWINGING BY NORTH OF CYUL THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE PULLING
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LINGERING LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL THIN THROUGH TIME...THOUGH WITH PASSG OF UPPER
500 MB TROUGH AXIS AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WILL CONTINUE WITH AT
LEAST CHC POPS FOR OUR NRN MTNS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS MAINLY DRY CONDS EXPECTED AS WELL
MIXED BNDRY LYR COMBINED WITH MEAN WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT SHOULD
ENSURE COMPRESSIONAL/DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS. TEMPS FAIRLY UNIFORM
GIVEN ONLY MARGINAL COLD AIR ADVECTIVE PROCESSES AND AT LEAST A
DECENT DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER. THUS STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO MOS
GUIDANCE HERE... OFFERING MINS GENERALLY FROM THE MID 30S TO THE
LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM EST FRIDAY...THEN MAINLY QUIET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT BUILDS
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL STATES. CLOUDS MAY PROVE A TAD SLUGGISH TO
DEPART NRN AREAS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS
RESIDUAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY FLATTENS...OTW EXPECT SKIES TO
TREND MAINLY CLR BY SATURDAY EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE OFFERED MAX TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABV
SEASONAL NORMS HERE BASED OFF 925 MB TEMPS AND THE EXPECTED CLEARING
TREND...THOUGH HAVE UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIODS AS RADIATIVE EFFECTS DOMINATE UNDER LIGHT WINDS. OVERALL
ANOTHER NICE NOVEMBER WEEKEND ON TAP WITH NO PCPN...INCREASING
SUNSHINE...AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD ON MONDAY. ON MONDAY THE GFS MODEL TAKES A WEAK LOW ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY MORNING AND THEN BRING THIS LOW INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z TUESDAY. 12Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF MODELS
KEEP A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY...WITH THE
ECMWF MODEL KEEPING THIS HIGH IN PLACE OVER THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE GFS MODEL APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH
THIS LOW. THUS...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE 12Z ECMWF FORECAST
SOLUTION AND WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THIS MODEL KEEPS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION.

ON THANKSGIVING DAY...12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF MODELS SHOWING RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. BOTH MODELS SHOW
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...GFS MODEL COLDER THEN THE ECMWF THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...SO UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO PRECIPITATION TYPE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. 12Z ECMWF MODEL MUCH WARMER THAN THE GFS AND
IMPLIES MAINLY RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY... WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

HAVE GONE LOWER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR POPS MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT...BUT ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE IN ITS WAKE. EXPECT MVFR
CIGS AT MOST TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WITH IFR AT KSLK. SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE DURING SATURDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON...
WITH CLOUDS THEN BECOMING SCT AT MOST SITES LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL BE OBSCURED IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME AREAS
OF SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 20 KTS OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH AROUND 06Z. WINDS WILL BE W TO NW AROUND 10 KTS
DURING SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS FORECAST
AREA EXPECTED TO BE UNDER GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/MB
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 210226
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
926 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ENDING.
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY PERSIST WELL INTO SATURDAY
HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WHERE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HANG TOUGH. THEREAFTER...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ATOP THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH MAINLY FAIR
SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 925 PM EST FRIDAY...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING...MAINLY TO FRESHEN UP THE WORDING. SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES DENSE CLOUD COVER WELL UPSTREAM INTO ONTARIO...SO ALSO
UPPED CLOUD COVER TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OR CLOUDY IN ALL AREAS. MUCH OF
THE EARLIER SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED THIS EVENING...BUT
STILL A FEW RETURNS APPEARING ON RADAR. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
STILL IN THE VICINITY AND WINDS FAVORABLE FOR UPSLOPE ESPECIALLY
IN THE NORTHERN GREENS...KEPT THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...REMOVED MENTION OF SNOW FROM THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AS THICK CLOUD COVER SHOULD PROHIBIT TEMPERATURES FROM
DROPPING MUCH BELOW THE UPPER 30S. OTHERWISE THE GOING FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CURRENT FCST IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. UPPER LVL LOW PRESSURE
SWINGING BY NORTH OF CYUL THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE PULLING
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LINGERING LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL THIN THROUGH TIME...THOUGH WITH PASSG OF UPPER
500 MB TROUGH AXIS AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WILL CONTINUE WITH AT
LEAST CHC POPS FOR OUR NRN MTNS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS MAINLY DRY CONDS EXPECTED AS WELL
MIXED BNDRY LYR COMBINED WITH MEAN WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT SHOULD
ENSURE COMPRESSIONAL/DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS. TEMPS FAIRLY UNIFORM
GIVEN ONLY MARGINAL COLD AIR ADVECTIVE PROCESSES AND AT LEAST A
DECENT DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER. THUS STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO MOS
GUIDANCE HERE... OFFERING MINS GENERALLY FROM THE MID 30S TO THE
LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM EST FRIDAY...THEN MAINLY QUIET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT BUILDS
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL STATES. CLOUDS MAY PROVE A TAD SLUGGISH TO
DEPART NRN AREAS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS
RESIDUAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY FLATTENS...OTW EXPECT SKIES TO
TREND MAINLY CLR BY SATURDAY EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE OFFERED MAX TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABV
SEASONAL NORMS HERE BASED OFF 925 MB TEMPS AND THE EXPECTED CLEARING
TREND...THOUGH HAVE UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIODS AS RADIATIVE EFFECTS DOMINATE UNDER LIGHT WINDS. OVERALL
ANOTHER NICE NOVEMBER WEEKEND ON TAP WITH NO PCPN...INCREASING
SUNSHINE...AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD ON MONDAY. ON MONDAY THE GFS MODEL TAKES A WEAK LOW ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY MORNING AND THEN BRING THIS LOW INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z TUESDAY. 12Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF MODELS
KEEP A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY...WITH THE
ECMWF MODEL KEEPING THIS HIGH IN PLACE OVER THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE GFS MODEL APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH
THIS LOW. THUS...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE 12Z ECMWF FORECAST
SOLUTION AND WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THIS MODEL KEEPS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION.

ON THANKSGIVING DAY...12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF MODELS SHOWING RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. BOTH MODELS SHOW
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...GFS MODEL COLDER THEN THE ECMWF THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...SO UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO PRECIPITATION TYPE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. 12Z ECMWF MODEL MUCH WARMER THAN THE GFS AND
IMPLIES MAINLY RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY... WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

HAVE GONE LOWER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR POPS MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT...BUT ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE IN ITS WAKE. EXPECT MVFR
CIGS WITH SOME RAIN SHWRS AT KSLK/KMSS...WITH MOSTLY VFR CIGS
(AROUND 3500 FT) AT REMAINDER OF TAF SITES ALONG WITH WIDELY SCT
SHWRS. EXPECT CIGS TO BECOME VFR AT ALL TAF SITES BY AROUND NOON
SATURDAY...WITH CLOUDS THEN BECOMING SCT AT MOST SITES AFTER 18Z.
HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE OBSCURED IN CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
SOME AREAS OF SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 20 KTS OR GREATER ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AROUND 04Z. WINDS WILL BE W TO
NW AROUND 10 KTS DURING SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS FORECAST
AREA EXPECTED TO BE UNDER GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/MB
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KALY 210032
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
732 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY OVERNIGHT FROM NEAR MONTREAL TO LABRADOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY FROM THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED DEW POINT...POPS AND SKY COVER GRIDS. INCREASED CLOUDS
SLIGHTLY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING TO REPRESENT OVC SKIES ESP OVER
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTH COUNTRY. EVEN THOUGH SKY GRIDS
INCREASED...TEMPS AND MIN TEMP STILL ON TARGET. DECREASED POPS AS
RADAR SHOWS DECREASING DBZS ACROSS HERKIMER AND HAMILTON
COUNTIES...AND UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
AREA..WITH WINDS SHOWING A SLIGHT AND GRADUAL DECREASE.
OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSING TO OUR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. WILL BE UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW TONIGHT ALONG WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT. HAVE KEPT CHANCE
POPS NORTH AND WEST OF CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FOR THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT...IN THE 30S. LOOKING
AT RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. WESTERLY FLOW WEAKENS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE WEEKEND WE HAVE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. A SERIES OF 500 HPA
SHORT WAVES PRODUCE A TROFF FM YUL TO ORD ACROSS THE GRTLKS
RGN...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SFC OVER THE MIDWEST AND
GRTLKS. MODELS SHOW AN AREA OF HI RH MAINLY WELL WEST OF FCA...BUT
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN PS CONDS SAT. THIS AREA DYNAMICS DRYS OVER
TIME AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER FCA...AND WEAK
500HPA TROF AXIS SLIDES SE OF RGN SAT NIGHT. SUNDAY WOULD BRING
M.S. CONDS AS 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE GRTLKS AND SFC HIGH IS
OVER RGN. WITH LT WINDS AND A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE...PARTICULARLY
SUNDAY...WEEKEND SHOULD BRING NR TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMALS TEMPS
WITH MID 40S TO MID 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE MDLS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE
DEVELOPMENT...TIMING AND TRACK OF A COASTAL LOW. HPC...NAM...AND
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL SUPPRESSED TO OUT
SOUTH RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...AND PS-MS
CONDS MUCH OF MONDAY. BGM PLANS ON SLOWING THE PCPN THREAT
CONSIDERABLY IN THIS PERIOD AND BTV WILL KEEP IT DRY AND FAIR AS
WE WILL WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. WITH CLEAR
SKIES STARTED WITH COLD MET TEMPS AND TOOK THEM A FEW DEGREES
LOWED SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH MORE SUN ON MON

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OPERATIONAL GFS OUTLIER IN GUIDANCE WITH COASTAL LOW MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. ECMWF KEEPS FA DRY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS IN PLACE. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST...WITH A POSITIVE TILT BY LATE FRIDAY. PRECIP
MOVING OUT OF THE FA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING LOW TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE M/U30S
IN THE VALLEYS AND L30S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WARMING TO THE
M50S IN THE VALLEYS AND M/U40S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE
DAY. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
BEFORE THE PRECIP SLOWLY MOVES ITS WAY IN ON THURSDAY. THURSDAY
MAX TEMPS IN THE M40S IN THE VALLEYS AND U30S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH ANY PRECIP DURING THE DAY AS RAIN...WITH SPOTS OF
-RASN ABV 2500FT. COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO
RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW AND ALL SNOW AT TIMES. THURSDAY NIGHT
EXPECTING RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEYS AND SNOW AT ELEVATIONS
500FT AND ABV. WITH CONDITIONS DRYING LATE FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES
A BIT COOLER ON FRIDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE L/M40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND M/U30S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PASSING TO OUR NORTH THIS EVENING. REGION WILL
BE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT KALB-KGFL WHICH WE HAVE
INDICATED A BKN030...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. A WEAK MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE UPSTREAM /OHIO RIVER VALLEY/ HAS RESULTED IN A
SCT-BKN020-040 WHICH WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.
THEREAFTER...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE RATHER PRONOUNCED WITH
THIS CLOUD DECK BECOME DOMINATE OVERNIGHT AND WILL PLACE A MVFR CIG
AT THIS TIME.  OTHERWISE...KPOU SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH A SCT MID
LEVEL DECK EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN SPEED OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WATER LEVELS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RISE ANOTHER HALF OF A FOOT
OR LESS IN REACTION TO LAST NIGHT/S RAINFALL. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. WATER
LEVELS WILL THEN REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR RECEDE. OUR NEXT CHANCES
FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGS/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/KGS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...KGS
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...KGS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 202352
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
652 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ENDING.
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY PERSIST WELL INTO SATURDAY
HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WHERE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HANG TOUGH. THEREAFTER...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ATOP THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH MAINLY FAIR
SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM EST FRIDAY...CURRENT FCST IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. UPPER LVL LOW PRESSURE
SWINGING BY NORTH OF CYUL THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE PULLING
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LINGERING LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL THIN THROUGH TIME...THOUGH WITH PASSG OF UPPER
500 MB TROUGH AXIS AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WILL CONTINUE WITH AT
LEAST CHC POPS FOR OUR NRN MTNS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS MAINLY DRY CONDS EXPECTED AS WELL
MIXED BNDRY LYR COMBINED WITH MEAN WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT SHOULD
ENSURE COMPRESSIONAL/DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS. TEMPS FAIRLY UNIFORM
GIVEN ONLY MARGINAL COLD AIR ADVECTIVE PROCESSES AND AT LEAST A
DECENT DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER. THUS STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO MOS
GUIDANCE HERE... OFFERING MINS GENERALLY FROM THE MID 30S TO THE
LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM EST FRIDAY...THEN MAINLY QUIET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT BUILDS
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL STATES. CLOUDS MAY PROVE A TAD SLUGGISH TO
DEPART NRN AREAS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS
RESIDUAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY FLATTENS...OTW EXPECT SKIES TO
TREND MAINLY CLR BY SATURDAY EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE OFFERED MAX TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABV
SEASONAL NORMS HERE BASED OFF 925 MB TEMPS AND THE EXPECTED CLEARING
TREND...THOUGH HAVE UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIODS AS RADIATIVE EFFECTS DOMINATE UNDER LIGHT WINDS. OVERALL
ANOTHER NICE NOVEMBER WEEKEND ON TAP WITH NO PCPN...INCREASING
SUNSHINE...AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD ON MONDAY. ON MONDAY THE GFS MODEL TAKES A WEAK LOW ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY MORNING AND THEN BRING THIS LOW INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z TUESDAY. 12Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF MODELS
KEEP A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY...WITH THE
ECMWF MODEL KEEPING THIS HIGH IN PLACE OVER THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE GFS MODEL APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH
THIS LOW. THUS...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE 12Z ECMWF FORECAST
SOLUTION AND WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THIS MODEL KEEPS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION.

ON THANKSGIVING DAY...12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF MODELS SHOWING RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. BOTH MODELS SHOW
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...GFS MODEL COLDER THEN THE ECMWF THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...SO UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO PRECIPITATION TYPE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. 12Z ECMWF MODEL MUCH WARMER THAN THE GFS AND
IMPLIES MAINLY RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY... WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

HAVE GONE LOWER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR POPS MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT...BUT ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE IN ITS WAKE. EXPECT MVFR
CIGS WITH SOME RAIN SHWRS AT KSLK/KMSS...WITH MOSTLY VFR CIGS
(AROUND 3500 FT) AT REMAINDER OF TAF SITES ALONG WITH WIDELY SCT
SHWRS. EXPECT CIGS TO BECOME VFR AT ALL TAF SITES BY AROUND NOON
SATURDAY...WITH CLOUDS THEN BECOMING SCT AT MOST SITES AFTER 18Z.
HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE OBSCURED IN CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
SOME AREAS OF SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 20 KTS OR GREATER ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AROUND 04Z. WINDS WILL BE W TO
NW AROUND 10 KTS DURING SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS FORECAST
AREA EXPECTED TO BE UNDER GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KALY 202315
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
615 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY OVERNIGHT FROM NEAR MONTREAL TO LABRADOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY FROM THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE ALONG
THE DELMARVA COAST AND LIFT SLOWLY NORTH INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSING TO OUR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. WILL BE UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW TONIGHT ALONG WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT. HAVE KEPT CHANCE
POPS NORTH AND WEST OF CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FOR THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT...IN THE 30S. LOOKING
AT RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. WESTERLY FLOW WEAKENS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE WEEKEND WE HAVE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. A SERIES OF 500 HPA
SHORT WAVES PRODUCE A TROFF FM YUL TO ORD ACROSS THE GRTLKS
RGN...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SFC OVER THE MIDWEST AND
GRTLKS. MODELS SHOW AN AREA OF HI RH MAINLY WELL WEST OF FCA...BUT
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN PS CONDS SAT. THIS AREA DYNAMICS DRYS OVER
TIME AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER FCA...AND WEAK
500HPA TROF AXIS SLIDES SE OF RGN SAT NIGHT. SUNDAY WOULD BRING
M.S. CONDS AS 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE GRTLKS AND SFC HIGH IS
OVER RGN. WITH LT WINDS AND A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE...PARTICULARLY
SUNDAY...WEEKEND SHOULD BRING NR TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMALS TEMPS
WITH MID 40S TO MID 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE MDLS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE
DEVELOPMENT...TIMING AND TRACK OF A COASTAL LOW. HPC...NAM...AND
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL SUPPRESSED TO OUT
SOUTH RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...AND PS-MS
CONDS MUCH OF MONDAY. BGM PLANS ON SLOWING THE PCPN THREAT
CONSIDERABLY IN THIS PERIOD AND BTV WILL KEEP IT DRY AND FAIR AS
WE WILL WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. WITH CLEAR
SKIES STARTED WITH COLD MET TEMPS AND TOOK THEM A FEW DEGREES
LOWED SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH MORE SUN ON MON

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OPERATIONAL GFS OUTLIER IN GUIDANCE WITH COASTAL LOW MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. ECMWF KEEPS FA DRY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS IN PLACE. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST...WITH A POSITIVE TILT BY LATE FRIDAY. PRECIP
MOVING OUT OF THE FA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING LOW TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE M/U30S
IN THE VALLEYS AND L30S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WARMING TO THE
M50S IN THE VALLEYS AND M/U40S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE
DAY. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
BEFORE THE PRECIP SLOWLY MOVES ITS WAY IN ON THURSDAY. THURSDAY
MAX TEMPS IN THE M40S IN THE VALLEYS AND U30S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH ANY PRECIP DURING THE DAY AS RAIN...WITH SPOTS OF
-RASN ABV 2500FT. COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO
RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW AND ALL SNOW AT TIMES. THURSDAY NIGHT
EXPECTING RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEYS AND SNOW AT ELEVATIONS
500FT AND ABV. WITH CONDITIONS DRYING LATE FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES
A BIT COOLER ON FRIDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE L/M40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND M/U30S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PASSING TO OUR NORTH THIS EVENING. REGION WILL
BE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT KALB-KGFL WHICH WE HAVE
INDICATED A BKN030...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. A WEAK MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE UPSTREAM /OHIO RIVER VALLEY/ HAS RESULTED IN A
SCT-BKN020-040 WHICH WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.
THEREAFTER...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE RATHER PRONOUNCED WITH
THIS CLOUD DECK BECOME DOMINATE OVERNIGHT AND WILL PLACE A MVFR CIG
AT THIS TIME.  OTHERWISE...KPOU SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH A SCT MID
LEVEL DECK EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN SPEED OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WATER LEVELS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RISE ANOTHER HALF OF A FOOT
OR LESS IN REACTION TO LAST NIGHT/S RAINFALL. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. WATER
LEVELS WILL THEN REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR RECEDE. OUR NEXT CHANCES
FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...KGS
AVIATION...BGM
HYDROLOGY...KGS


WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KALY 202035
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
335 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY OVERNIGHT FROM NEAR MONTREAL TO LABRADOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY FROM THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE ALONG
THE DELMARVA COAST AND LIFT SLOWLY NORTH INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSING TO OUR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. WILL BE UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW TONIGHT ALONG WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT. HAVE KEPT CHANCE
POPS NORTH AND WEST OF CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FOR THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT...IN THE 30S. LOOKING
AT RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. WESTERLY FLOW WEAKENS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE WEEKEND WE HAVE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. A SERIES OF 500 HPA
SHORT WAVES PRODUCE A TROFF FM YUL TO ORD ACROSS THE GRTLKS
RGN...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SFC OVER THE MIDWEST AND
GRTLKS. MODELS SHOW AN AREA OF HI RH MAINLY WELL WEST OF FCA...BUT
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN PS CONDS SAT. THIS AREA DYNAMICS DRYS OVER
TIME AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER FCA...AND WEAK
500HPA TROF AXIS SLIDES SE OF RGN SAT NIGHT. SUNDAY WOULD BRING
M.S. CONDS AS 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE GRTLKS AND SFC HIGH IS
OVER RGN. WITH LT WINDS AND A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE...PARTICULARLY
SUNDAY...WEEKEND SHOULD BRING NR TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMALS TEMPS
WITH MID 40S TO MID 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE MDLS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE
DEVELOPMENT...TIMING AND TRACK OF A COASTAL LOW. HPC...NAM...AND
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL SUPPRESSED TO OUT
SOUTH RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...AND PS-MS
CONDS MUCH OF MONDAY. BGM PLANS ON SLOWING THE PCPN THREAT
CONSIDERABLY IN THIS PERIOD AND BTV WILL KEEP IT DRY AND FAIR AS
WE WILL WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. WITH CLEAR
SKIES STARTED WITH COLD MET TEMPS AND TOOK THEM A FEW DEGREES
LOWED SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH MORE SUN ON MON

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OPERATIONAL GFS OUTLIER IN GUIDANCE WITH COASTAL LOW MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. ECMWF KEEPS FA DRY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS IN PLACE. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST...WITH A POSITIVE TILT BY LATE FRIDAY. PRECIP
MOVING OUT OF THE FA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING LOW TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE M/U30S
IN THE VALLEYS AND L30S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WARMING TO THE
M50S IN THE VALLEYS AND M/U40S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE
DAY. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
BEFORE THE PRECIP SLOWLY MOVES ITS WAY IN ON THURSDAY. THURSDAY
MAX TEMPS IN THE M40S IN THE VALLEYS AND U30S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH ANY PRECIP DURING THE DAY AS RAIN...WITH SPOTS OF
-RASN ABV 2500FT. COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO
RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW AND ALL SNOW AT TIMES. THURSDAY NIGHT
EXPECTING RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEYS AND SNOW AT ELEVATIONS
500FT AND ABV. WITH CONDITIONS DRYING LATE FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES
A BIT COOLER ON FRIDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE L/M40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND M/U30S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PASSING TO OUR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
BE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AT KALB WHICH HAVE INDICATED WITH A SCATTERED 2500 FT CLOUDS
IN TAF AS AREA IS AFFECTED BY LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL
BE CUT OFF AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT LOW LEVELS SHIFTING THE FLOW
MORE NORTHERLY. THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WATER LEVELS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RISE ANOTHER HALF OF A FOOT
OR LESS IN REACTION TO LAST NIGHT/S RAINFALL. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. WATER
LEVELS WILL THEN REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR RECEDE. OUR NEXT CHANCES
FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...KGS
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...KGS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 202016
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
316 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ENDING.
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY PERSIST WELL INTO SATURDAY
HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WHERE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HANG TOUGH. THEREAFTER...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ATOP THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH MAINLY FAIR
SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 220 PM EST FRIDAY...CURRENT FCST IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. UPPER LVL LOW PRESSURE
SWINGING BY NORTH OF CYUL THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE PULLING
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LINGERING LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL THIN THROUGH TIME...THOUGH WITH PASSG OF UPPER
500 MB TROUGH AXIS AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WILL CONTINUE WITH AT
LEAST CHC POPS FOR OUR NRN MTNS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS MAINLY DRY CONDS EXPECTED AS WELL
MIXED BNDRY LYR COMBINED WITH MEAN WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT SHOULD
ENSURE COMPRESSIONAL/DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS. TEMPS FAIRLY UNIFORM
GIVEN ONLY MARGINAL COLD AIR ADVECTIVE PROCESSES AND AT LEAST A
DECENT DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER. THUS STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO MOS
GUIDANCE HERE... OFFERING MINS GENERALLY FROM THE MID 30S TO THE
LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM EST FRIDAY...THEN MAINLY QUIET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT BUILDS
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL STATES. CLOUDS MAY PROVE A TAD SLUGGISH TO
DEPART NRN AREAS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS
RESIDUAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY FLATTENS...OTW EXPECT SKIES TO
TREND MAINLY CLR BY SATURDAY EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE OFFERED MAX TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABV
SEASONAL NORMS HERE BASED OFF 925 MB TEMPS AND THE EXPECTED CLEARING
TREND...THOUGH HAVE UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIODS AS RADIATIVE EFFECTS DOMINATE UNDER LIGHT WINDS. OVERALL
ANOTHER NICE NOVEMBER WEEKEND ON TAP WITH NO PCPN...INCREASING
SUNSHINE...AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD ON MONDAY. ON MONDAY THE GFS MODEL TAKES A WEAK LOW ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY MORNING AND THEN BRING THIS LOW INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z TUESDAY. 12Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF MODELS
KEEP A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY...WITH THE
ECMWF MODEL KEEPING THIS HIGH IN PLACE OVER THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE GFS MODEL APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH
THIS LOW. THUS...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE 12Z ECMWF FORECAST
SOLUTION AND WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THIS MODEL KEEPS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION.

ON THANKSGIVING DAY...12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF MODELS SHOWING RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. BOTH MODELS SHOW
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...GFS MODEL COLDER THEN THE ECMWF THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...SO UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO PRECIPITATION TYPE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. 12Z ECMWF MODEL MUCH WARMER THAN THE GFS AND
IMPLIES MAINLY RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY... WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

HAVE GONE LOWER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR POPS MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH 14Z SATURDAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND BE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION BY 00Z SATURDAY.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREEN MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS THE GREEN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN
MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED IN CLOUDS THROUGH 14Z SATURDAY. SOME
AREAS OF SURFACE WIND GUST OF 20 KNOT OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH 04Z SATURDAY. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO BECOME VFR
ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 14Z-17Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH

000
FXUS61 KBTV 201921
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
220 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ENDING.
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY PERSIST WELL INTO SATURDAY
HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WHERE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HANG TOUGH. THEREAFTER...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ATOP THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH MAINLY FAIR
SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 220 PM EST FRIDAY...CURRENT FCST IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. UPPER LVL LOW PRESSURE
SWINGING BY NORTH OF KYUL THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE PULLING
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LINGERING LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL THIN THROUGH TIME...THOUGH WITH PASSG OF UPPER
500 MB TROUGH AXIS AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WILL CONTINUE WITH AT
LEAST CHC POPS FOR OUR NRN MTNS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS MAINLY DRY CONDS EXPECTED AS WELL MIXED
BNDRY LYR COMBINED WITH MEAN WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT SHOULD ENSURE
COMPRESSIONAL/DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS. TEMPS FAIRLY UNIFORM GIVEN ONLY
MARGINAL COLD AIR ADVECTIVE PROCESSES AND AT LEAST A DECENT DEGREE
OF CLOUD COVER. THUS STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE HERE...
OFFERING MINS GENERALLY FROM THE MID 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM EST FRIDAY...THEN MAINLY QUIET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT BUILDS
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL STATES. CLOUDS MAY PROVE A TAD SLUGGISH TO
DEPART NRN AREAS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS
RESIDUAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY FLATTENS...OTW EXPECT SKIES TO
TREND MAINLY CLR BY SATURDAY EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE OFFERED MAX TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABV
SEASONAL NORMS HERE BASED OFF 925 MB TEMPS AND THE EXPECTED CLEARING
TREND...THOUGH HAVE UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIODS AS RADIATIVE EFFECTS DOMINATE UNDER LIGHT WINDS. OVERALL
ANOTHER NICE NOVEMBER WEEKEND ON TAP WITH NO PCPN...INCREASING
SUNSHINE...AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 322 AM EST FRIDAY...WINTER-LIKE WEATHER HAS BEEN
ELUSIVE...BY MAY BRUSH THE NORTH COUNTRY BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING MONDAY THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE...WITH THE RIDGE
SLIDING EAST AND A BROAD TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHEAST.
WITH THIS SETUP WE WILL SEE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AND CONTINUE OUR TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPS...BUT THIS TIME WITHOUT WIDE DIURNAL SWINGS THANKS TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. LOOK FOR THE POTENTIAL OF RAIN SHOWERS
BEGINNING MONDAY AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN THE GULF THIS WEEKEND
AND MOVES UP ALONG THE EAST COAST MONDAY. WITH THE TAIL END OF
THE RIDGE STILL OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY MONDAY...THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN SOUTHERN LOCATIONS...AND
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS WILL LIKELY
BE A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM THE THREAT OF SHOWERS DIMINISHES TUES
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE BRIEF AS ANOTHER SYSTEM...A WEAKENING
FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES...MOVES IN SPREADING THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST. BY WEDNESDAY A
FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH...AT LEAST RELATIVE TO RECENT PATTERNS...WILL
MOVE OVER THE NORTHEAST...KEEPING US IN A SHOWERY REGIME. TOWARD
THURSDAY WE COULD SEE OUR FIRST PUNCH OF COOLER AIR ALOFT IN
QUITE SOME TIME...WITH A SFC COLD FRONT SWINGING SOUTH OUT OF
ONTARIO. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS RATHER MOISTURE STARVED...BUT COULD BE
OUR FIRST OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH 14Z SATURDAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND BE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION BY 00Z SATURDAY.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREEN MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS THE GREEN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN
MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED IN CLOUDS THROUGH 14Z SATURDAY. SOME
AREAS OF SURFACE WIND GUST OF 20 KNOT OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH 04Z SATURDAY. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO BECOME VFR
ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 14Z-17Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.
00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...AMF
AVIATION...WGH

000
FXUS61 KALY 201840
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
140 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY OVERNIGHT FROM NEAR MONTREAL TO LABRADOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY FROM THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE ALONG
THE DELMARVA COAST AND LIFT SLOWLY NORTH INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSING TO OUR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. WILL BE UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW TONIGHT ALONG WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT. HAVE KEPT CHANCE
POPS NORTH AND WEST OF CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FOR THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT...IN THE 30S. LOOKING
AT RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. WESTERLY FLOW WEAKENS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE WEEKEND WE HAVE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. A SERIES OF 500 HPA
SHORT WAVES PRODUCE A TROFF FM YUL TO ORD ACROSS THE GRTLKS
RGN...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SFC OVER THE MIDWEST AND
GRTLKS. MODELS SHOW AN AREA OF HI RH MAINLY WELL WEST OF FCA...BUT
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN PS CONDS SAT. THIS AREA DYNAMICS DRYS OVER
TIME AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER FCA...AND WEAK
500HPA TROF AXIS SLIDES SE OF RGN SAT NIGHT. SUNDAY WOULD BRING
M.S. CONDS AS 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE GRTLKS AND SFC HIGH IS
OVER RGN. WITH LT WINDS AND A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE...PARTICULARLY
SUNDAY...WEEKEND SHOULD BRING NR TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMALS TEMPS
WITH MID 40S TO MID 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE MDLS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE
DEVELOPMENT...TIMING AND TRACK OF A COASTAL LOW. HPC...NAM...AND
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL SUPPRESSED TO OUT
SOUTH RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...AND PS-MS
CONDS MUCH OF MONDAY. BGM PLANS ON SLOWING THE PCPN THREAT
CONSIDERABLY IN THIS PERIOD AND BTV WILL KEEP IT DRY AND FAIR AS
WE WILL WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. WITH CLEAR
SKIES STARTED WITH COLD MET TEMPS AND TOOK THEM A FEW DEGREES
LOWED SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH MORE SUN ON MON

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUN NT-MON NT...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING NEXT STORM
SYSTEM...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST...AS THE
00Z/20 GFS AND MAJORITY OF MREF MEMBERS DEPICT WIDESPREAD RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION MON INTO MON NT...WHILE THE 00Z/20 GEM/ECMWF/UKMET
INDICATE THAT BEST CHC OF RAIN OCCURS ACROSS S/E PORTIONS OF
REGION...WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN ACROSS N/W AREAS. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE INDICATED CHC POPS...HIGHEST TO THE S/E...STARTING EARLY
MON...AND ENDING LATE MON NT. FOR SUN NT...HAVE INDICATED SLIGHT CHC
POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...AND NIL TO THE N...AS HIGH PRESSURE MAY
SLOW THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF PRECIP SOMEWHAT.
OTHERWISE...ASSUMING CLOUDS AND PRECIP...EXPECT MAX TEMPS MON TO
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 50
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WHILE OVERNIGHT MINS MON AM FALL INTO THE
30S...WITH PERHAPS SOME 20S ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS...WITH
WIDESPREAD MID/UPPER 30S EXPECTED FOR MON NT/TUE AM. SUN NT/MON AM
MINS MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...AS CLOUDS POTENTIALLY INCREASE.

TUE-THU...FAIRLY HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS PERIOD...AS
THE GFS DEPICTS A POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING ON
THANKSGIVING...WHILE THE GEM/ECMWF HINT AT A MORE PROGRESSIVE
LOW...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH ANY LOW DEEPENING TO OUR N/E. AT THIS TIME...HAVE
INDICATED ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS TUE-WED...THEN CHC POPS FOR THU...FOR
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS...AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. EXPECT A COOLING TREND DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH WARMEST
MAXES ON TUE GENERALLY IN THE 50S...FALLING TO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER
50S FOR WED...AND MAINLY 40S BY THU...WITH EVEN SOME 30S POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR MINS...EXPECT MAINLY MID/UPPER 30S
FOR TUE/WED AM...WITH LOWER/MID 30S POSSIBLE THU AM...ALONG WITH
SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PASSING TO OUR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
BE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AT KALB WHICH HAVE INDICATED WITH A SCATTERED 2500 FT CLOUDS
IN TAF AS AREA IS AFFECTED BY LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL
BE CUT OFF AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT LOW LEVELS SHIFTING THE FLOW
MORE NORTHERLY. THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE GENERALLY
RANGED FROM A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
TO A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
NEW YORK WITH AS MUCH AS 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. EXPECT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS
IN EASTERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING OF A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH
IN MOST AREAS WITH ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND OF A
THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THE EFFECT ON THE RIVERS OF
THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED RUNOFF WILL VARY QUITE A
BIT WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RISES ON RIVERS IN THE ADIRONDACKS
AND MOHAWK VALLEY EAST THROUGH THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION
INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES WHERE THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED AND WHERE THE GROUND
MOISTURE IS HIGHEST. RIVER RISES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ARE EXPECTED ON
MANY RIVERS IN THESE AREAS...BUT WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW BANKFULL.

THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE OVER WITH BY MID MORNING...WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL
ALLOW RIVERS TO RECEDE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME LAKE
ENHANCED RELATIVELY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM THE ADIRONDACKS INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH QPF AMOUNTS
GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KALY 201833
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
133 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY OVERNIGHT FROM NEAR MONTREAL TO LABRADOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY FROM THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE ALONG
THE DELMARVA COAST AND LIFT SLOWLY NORTH INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
OCCLUDED FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE AND DRIER AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE
REGION WITHIN CAA. WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR LOW CHC/SLIGHT CHC
POPS ACROSS THE DACKS...AS VORTICITY SPIRALING AROUND THE LARGE
UPPER LOW ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY STILL ALLOW FOR A FEW
SHOWERS THERE THIS AFTN. SKIES HAVE BECOME SCT ACROSS THE HUDSON
AND MOHAWK VALLEY AREAS...SO HAVE DECREASED CLOUD COVER FOR THIS
MORNING AS WELL. TEMPS HAVE ACTUALLY DROPPED A FEW DEGREES DUE TO
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT STILL APPEAR ON TARGET TO REACH THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. IN THE WAKE OF THE
BOUNDARY...MIXING HAS ALLOWED WESTERLY WINDS TO BE GUSTY...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTN
HOURS...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND CHANNELED VALLEY
AREAS.


SECONDARY FRONT EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA
TONIGHT AND WEAKEN IN VICINITY OF SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AS
COLDER AIR FUNNELS ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THIS
AREA ONLY DOWN IN THE MID 30S...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET MUCH
ACCUMULATION...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY ABOVE 2000 FEET MAY
PICK UP A HALF INCH OF SN0W. SOME SHOWERS MAY WORK AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND AS FAR EAST AS SOUTHERN VERMONT BUT HAVE
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THESE AREAS. REMAINDER OF FA
EXPECTED TO BE DRY OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS LATE. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE WEEKEND WE HAVE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. A SERIES OF 500 HPA
SHORT WAVES PRODUCE A TROFF FM YUL TO ORD ACROSS THE GRTLKS
RGN...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SFC OVER THE MIDWEST AND
GRTLKS. MODELS SHOW AN AREA OF HI RH MAINLY WELL WEST OF FCA...BUT
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN PS CONDS SAT. THIS AREA DYNAMICS DRYS OVER
TIME AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER FCA...AND WEAK
500HPA TROF AXIS SLIDES SE OF RGN SAT NIGHT. SUNDAY WOULD BRING
M.S. CONDS AS 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE GRTLKS AND SFC HIGH IS
OVER RGN. WITH LT WINDS AND A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE...PARTICULARLY
SUNDAY...WEEKEND SHOULD BRING NR TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMALS TEMPS
WITH MID 40S TO MID 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE MDLS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE
DEVELOPMENT...TIMING AND TRACK OF A COASTAL LOW. HPC...NAM...AND
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL SUPPRESSED TO OUT
SOUTH RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...AND PS-MS
CONDS MUCH OF MONDAY. BGM PLANS ON SLOWING THE PCPN THREAT
CONSIDERABLY IN THIS PERIOD AND BTV WILL KEEP IT DRY AND FAIR AS
WE WILL WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. WITH CLEAR
SKIES STARTED WITH COLD MET TEMPS AND TOOK THEM A FEW DEGREES
LOWED SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH MORE SUN ON MON

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUN NT-MON NT...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING NEXT STORM
SYSTEM...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST...AS THE
00Z/20 GFS AND MAJORITY OF MREF MEMBERS DEPICT WIDESPREAD RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION MON INTO MON NT...WHILE THE 00Z/20 GEM/ECMWF/UKMET
INDICATE THAT BEST CHC OF RAIN OCCURS ACROSS S/E PORTIONS OF
REGION...WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN ACROSS N/W AREAS. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE INDICATED CHC POPS...HIGHEST TO THE S/E...STARTING EARLY
MON...AND ENDING LATE MON NT. FOR SUN NT...HAVE INDICATED SLIGHT CHC
POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...AND NIL TO THE N...AS HIGH PRESSURE MAY
SLOW THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF PRECIP SOMEWHAT.
OTHERWISE...ASSUMING CLOUDS AND PRECIP...EXPECT MAX TEMPS MON TO
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 50
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WHILE OVERNIGHT MINS MON AM FALL INTO THE
30S...WITH PERHAPS SOME 20S ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS...WITH
WIDESPREAD MID/UPPER 30S EXPECTED FOR MON NT/TUE AM. SUN NT/MON AM
MINS MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...AS CLOUDS POTENTIALLY INCREASE.

TUE-THU...FAIRLY HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS PERIOD...AS
THE GFS DEPICTS A POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING ON
THANKSGIVING...WHILE THE GEM/ECMWF HINT AT A MORE PROGRESSIVE
LOW...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH ANY LOW DEEPENING TO OUR N/E. AT THIS TIME...HAVE
INDICATED ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS TUE-WED...THEN CHC POPS FOR THU...FOR
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS...AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. EXPECT A COOLING TREND DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH WARMEST
MAXES ON TUE GENERALLY IN THE 50S...FALLING TO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER
50S FOR WED...AND MAINLY 40S BY THU...WITH EVEN SOME 30S POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR MINS...EXPECT MAINLY MID/UPPER 30S
FOR TUE/WED AM...WITH LOWER/MID 30S POSSIBLE THU AM...ALONG WITH
SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PASSING TO OUR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
BE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AT KALB WHICH HAVE INDICATED WITH A SCATTERED 2500 FT CLOUDS
IN TAF AS AREA IS AFFECTED BY LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL
BE CUT OFF AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT LOW LEVELS SHIFTING THE FLOW
MORE NORTHERLY. THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE GENERALLY
RANGED FROM A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
TO A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
NEW YORK WITH AS MUCH AS 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. EXPECT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS
IN EASTERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING OF A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH
IN MOST AREAS WITH ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND OF A
THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THE EFFECT ON THE RIVERS OF
THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED RUNOFF WILL VARY QUITE A
BIT WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RISES ON RIVERS IN THE ADIRONDACKS
AND MOHAWK VALLEY EAST THROUGH THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION
INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES WHERE THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED AND WHERE THE GROUND
MOISTURE IS HIGHEST. RIVER RISES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ARE EXPECTED ON
MANY RIVERS IN THESE AREAS...BUT WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW BANKFULL.

THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE OVER WITH BY MID MORNING...WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL
ALLOW RIVERS TO RECEDE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME LAKE
ENHANCED RELATIVELY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM THE ADIRONDACKS INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH QPF AMOUNTS
GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 201808
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
108 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION OFF AND
ON THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AND TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER...CLEARING
SKIES...AND TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1023 AM EST FRIDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO THIS MORNINGS
PACKAGE...MAINLY TO ADJUST TIMING ON DEPARTING PCPN ACROSS VT...AND
WRAP-AROUND PCPN PUSHING INTO NRN NY THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST ANALYSIS
INDICATING BROAD OCCLUDED CYCLONE NORTH OF KYOW LATE THIS MORNING
CONTINUING TO TRUDGE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD. PRIMARY DEEP MOISTURE AND
ASSOC HEAVIER PCPN CONTINUES TO PUSH WELL EAST OF THE AREA AT THIS
TIME...WITH SCT TO OCCNLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS NOW CONFINED TO NRN
PORTIONS OF VT. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO SLOWLY WANE BY THIS
AFTERNOON...AS MORE CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY REDEVELOPS ACROSS NRN NY
WITH DEFORMATION/WRAP-AROUND FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER SYSTEM. HAVE
ADJUSTED 3-HRLY POPS SLIGHTLY BASED OFF LATEST SREF SOLN WHICH
APPEARS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON CURRENT SITUATION. WITH BROAD CAA
PUSHING INTO THE REGION ON WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW...TEMPS WILL RECOVER
ONLY SLIGHTLY FROM THIS MORNINGS MILD MIN TEMPS...BUT STILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE LATE NOVEMBER NORMS. OTHER THAN CHGS NOTED
ABOVE...REST OF INHERITED FCST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE AND NO OTHER
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH NORTH TO SOUTH
ORIENTED PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.
THIS FEATURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DIFFLUENT PATTERN AHEAD OF
UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO PROVINCE. DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN RAIN SHIELD ACROSS VERMONT THIS MORNING BEFORE
DRY SLOT MOVES IN. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN BE CONFINED TO AREAS JUST
EAST OF UPPER LOW...WHICH DOES MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK LATER
TODAY. THUS LOOKING AT SHOWERS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND FAR NORTHERN VERMONT. ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. THERE SHOULD BE
SOME MIXING THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO 25
MPH THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL EXIST OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
NEW YORK AND VERMONT. SNOW LEVEL WILL BE LOWERING TO ABOUT 2000
FEET AND THERE COULD BE SOME VERY MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
     ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS VERTICAL DEPTH OF MOISTURE BECOMES
LIMITED. THIS DESPITE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT. THE CLOUDS
AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM
EST FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND
BECOMES ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
DRYING TREND WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED BOTH DAYS. MORE SUN
IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 322 AM EST FRIDAY...WINTER-LIKE WEATHER HAS BEEN
ELUSIVE...BY MAY BRUSH THE NORTH COUNTRY BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING MONDAY THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE...WITH THE RIDGE
SLIDING EAST AND A BROAD TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHEAST.
WITH THIS SETUP WE WILL SEE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AND CONTINUE OUR TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPS...BUT THIS TIME WITHOUT WIDE DIURNAL SWINGS THANKS TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. LOOK FOR THE POTENTIAL OF RAIN SHOWERS
BEGINNING MONDAY AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN THE GULF THIS WEEKEND
AND MOVES UP ALONG THE EAST COAST MONDAY. WITH THE TAIL END OF
THE RIDGE STILL OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY MONDAY...THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN SOUTHERN LOCATIONS...AND
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS WILL LIKELY
BE A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM THE THREAT OF SHOWERS DIMINISHES TUES
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE BRIEF AS ANOTHER SYSTEM...A WEAKENING
FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES...MOVES IN SPREADING THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST. BY WEDNESDAY A
FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH...AT LEAST RELATIVE TO RECENT PATTERNS...WILL
MOVE OVER THE NORTHEAST...KEEPING US IN A SHOWERY REGIME. TOWARD
THURSDAY WE COULD SEE OUR FIRST PUNCH OF COOLER AIR ALOFT IN
QUITE SOME TIME...WITH A SFC COLD FRONT SWINGING SOUTH OUT OF
ONTARIO. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS RATHER MOISTURE STARVED...BUT COULD BE
OUR FIRST OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH 14Z SATURDAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND BE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION BY 00Z SATURDAY.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREEN MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS THE GREEN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS
WILL BE OBSCURED IN CLOUDS THROUGH 14Z SATURDAY. SOME AREAS OF
SURFACE WIND GUST OF 20 KNOT OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH 04Z SATURDAY. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO BECOME VFR ACROSS
THE REGION BETWEEN 14Z-17Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.
00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/JMG
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...AMF
AVIATION...WGH

000
FXUS61 KALY 201744
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1244 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT BROUGHT US THE WET WEATHER
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF OUR AREA
REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A
SECONDARY FRONT COMBINED WITH COLDER AIR FUNNELING ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO...WILL RESULT IN SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 952 AM EST...OCCLUDED FRONT IS WELL EAST OF THE CWA...CURRENTLY
CROSSING EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS HAS ALLOWED DRIER AIR TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION WITHIN CAA. WITH THE FORCING EAST OF THE
AREA...KENX RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN SHOWING NO PRECIP LEFT ACROSS
THE REGION...SO WILL DROP POPS IN ALL AREAS. WILL CONTINUE TO
ALLOW FOR LOW CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE DACKS...AS VORTICITY
SPIRALING AROUND THE LARGE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY MAY STILL ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS THERE THIS AFTN. SKIES
HAVE BECOME SCT ACROSS THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEY AREAS...SO
HAVE DECREASED CLOUD COVER FOR THIS MORNING AS WELL. TEMPS HAVE
ACTUALLY DROPPED A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT
STILL APPEAR ON TARGET TO REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA. IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY...MIXING HAS ALLOWED
WESTERLY WINDS TO BE GUSTY...WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. THIS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND CHANNELED VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SECONDARY FRONT EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA
TONIGHT AND WEAKEN IN VICINITY OF SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AS
COLDER AIR FUNNELS ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THIS
AREA ONLY DOWN IN THE MID 30S...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET MUCH
ACCUMULATION...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY ABOVE 2000 FEET MAY
PICK UP A HALF INCH OF SN0W. SOME SHOWERS MAY WORK AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND AS FAR EAST AS SOUTHERN VERMONT BUT HAVE
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THESE AREAS. REMAINDER OF FA
EXPECTED TO BE DRY OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS LATE. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOKS DRY EXCEPT FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED
LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WHICH WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AS
THE FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
ACROSS FA LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY.

EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUN NT-MON NT...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING NEXT STORM
SYSTEM...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST...AS THE
00Z/20 GFS AND MAJORITY OF MREF MEMBERS DEPICT WIDESPREAD RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION MON INTO MON NT...WHILE THE 00Z/20 GEM/ECMWF/UKMET
INDICATE THAT BEST CHC OF RAIN OCCURS ACROSS S/E PORTIONS OF
REGION...WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN ACROSS N/W AREAS. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE INDICATED CHC POPS...HIGHEST TO THE S/E...STARTING EARLY
MON...AND ENDING LATE MON NT. FOR SUN NT...HAVE INDICATED SLIGHT CHC
POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...AND NIL TO THE N...AS HIGH PRESSURE MAY
SLOW THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF PRECIP SOMEWHAT.
OTHERWISE...ASSUMING CLOUDS AND PRECIP...EXPECT MAX TEMPS MON TO
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 50
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WHILE OVERNIGHT MINS MON AM FALL INTO THE
30S...WITH PERHAPS SOME 20S ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS...WITH
WIDESPREAD MID/UPPER 30S EXPECTED FOR MON NT/TUE AM. SUN NT/MON AM
MINS MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...AS CLOUDS POTENTIALLY INCREASE.

TUE-THU...FAIRLY HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS PERIOD...AS
THE GFS DEPICTS A POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING ON
THANKSGIVING...WHILE THE GEM/ECMWF HINT AT A MORE PROGRESSIVE
LOW...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH ANY LOW DEEPENING TO OUR N/E. AT THIS TIME...HAVE
INDICATED ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS TUE-WED...THEN CHC POPS FOR THU...FOR
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS...AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. EXPECT A COOLING TREND DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH WARMEST
MAXES ON TUE GENERALLY IN THE 50S...FALLING TO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER
50S FOR WED...AND MAINLY 40S BY THU...WITH EVEN SOME 30S POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR MINS...EXPECT MAINLY MID/UPPER 30S
FOR TUE/WED AM...WITH LOWER/MID 30S POSSIBLE THU AM...ALONG WITH
SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PASSING TO OUR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
BE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AT KALB WHICH HAVE INDICATED WITH A SCATTERED 2500 FT CLOUDS
IN TAF AS AREA IS AFFECTED BY LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL
BE CUT OFF AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT LOW LEVELS SHIFTING THE FLOW
MORE NORTHERLY. THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE GENERALLY
RANGED FROM A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
TO A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
NEW YORK WITH AS MUCH AS 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. EXPECT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS
IN EASTERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING OF A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH
IN MOST AREAS WITH ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND OF A
THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THE EFFECT ON THE RIVERS OF
THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED RUNOFF WILL VARY QUITE A
BIT WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RISES ON RIVERS IN THE ADIRONDACKS
AND MOHAWK VALLEY EAST THROUGH THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION
INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES WHERE THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED AND WHERE THE GROUND
MOISTURE IS HIGHEST. RIVER RISES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ARE EXPECTED ON
MANY RIVERS IN THESE AREAS...BUT WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW BANKFULL.

THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE OVER WITH BY MID MORNING...WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL
ALLOW RIVERS TO RECEDE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME LAKE
ENHANCED RELATIVELY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM THE ADIRONDACKS INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH QPF AMOUNTS
GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...11

000
FXUS61 KBTV 201523
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1023 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION OFF AND
ON THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AND TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER...CLEARING
SKIES...AND TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1023 AM EST FRIDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO THIS MORNINGS
PACKAGE...MAINLY TO ADJUST TIMING ON DEPARTING PCPN ACROSS VT...AND
WRAP-AROUND PCPN PUSHING INTO NRN NY THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST ANALYSIS
INDICATING BROAD OCCLUDED CYCLONE NORTH OF KYOW LATE THIS MORNING
CONTINUING TO TRUDGE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD. PRIMARY DEEP MOISTURE AND
ASSOC HEAVIER PCPN CONTINUES TO PUSH WELL EAST OF THE AREA AT THIS
TIME...WITH SCT TO OCCNLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS NOW CONFINED TO NRN
PORTIONS OF VT. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO SLOWLY WANE BY THIS
AFTERNOON...AS MORE CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY REDEVELOPS ACROSS NRN NY
WITH DEFORMATION/WRAP-AROUND FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER SYSTEM. HAVE
ADJUSTED 3-HRLY POPS SLIGHTLY BASED OFF LATEST SREF SOLN WHICH
APPEARS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON CURRENT SITUATION. WITH BROAD CAA
PUSHING INTO THE REGION ON WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW...TEMPS WILL RECOVER
ONLY SLIGHTLY FROM THIS MORNINGS MILD MIN TEMPS...BUT STILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE LATE NOVEMBER NORMS. OTHER THAN CHGS NOTED
ABOVE...REST OF INHERITED FCST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE AND NO OTHER
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH NORTH TO SOUTH
ORIENTED PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.
THIS FEATURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DIFFLUENT PATTERN AHEAD OF
UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO PROVINCE. DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN RAIN SHIELD ACROSS VERMONT THIS MORNING BEFORE
DRY SLOT MOVES IN. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN BE CONFINED TO AREAS JUST
EAST OF UPPER LOW...WHICH DOES MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK LATER
TODAY. THUS LOOKING AT SHOWERS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND FAR NORTHERN VERMONT. ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. THERE SHOULD BE
SOME MIXING THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO 25
MPH THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL EXIST OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
NEW YORK AND VERMONT. SNOW LEVEL WILL BE LOWERING TO ABOUT 2000
FEET AND THERE COULD BE SOME VERY MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS VERTICAL DEPTH OF MOISTURE BECOMES
LIMITED. THIS DESPITE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT. THE CLOUDS
AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM
EST FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND
BECOMES ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
DRYING TREND WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED BOTH DAYS. MORE SUN
IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 322 AM EST FRIDAY...WINTER-LIKE WEATHER HAS BEEN
ELUSIVE...BY MAY BRUSH THE NORTH COUNTRY BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING MONDAY THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE...WITH THE RIDGE
SLIDING EAST AND A BROAD TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHEAST.
WITH THIS SETUP WE WILL SEE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AND CONTINUE OUR TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPS...BUT THIS TIME WITHOUT WIDE DIURNAL SWINGS THANKS TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. LOOK FOR THE POTENTIAL OF RAIN SHOWERS
BEGINNING MONDAY AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN THE GULF THIS WEEKEND
AND MOVES UP ALONG THE EAST COAST MONDAY. WITH THE TAIL END OF
THE RIDGE STILL OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY MONDAY...THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN SOUTHERN LOCATIONS...AND
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS WILL LIKELY
BE A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM THE THREAT OF SHOWERS DIMINISHES TUES
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE BRIEF AS ANOTHER SYSTEM...A WEAKENING
FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES...MOVES IN SPREADING THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST. BY WEDNESDAY A
FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH...AT LEAST RELATIVE TO RECENT PATTERNS...WILL
MOVE OVER THE NORTHEAST...KEEPING US IN A SHOWERY REGIME. TOWARD
THURSDAY WE COULD SEE OUR FIRST PUNCH OF COOLER AIR ALOFT IN
QUITE SOME TIME...WITH A SFC COLD FRONT SWINGING SOUTH OUT OF
ONTARIO. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS RATHER MOISTURE STARVED...BUT COULD BE
OUR FIRST OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...OCCLUDED BOUNDARY IS MOVING THROUGH THE
CEILING WITH MODERATE RAIN ACROSS VT. GENERALLY IFR AND MVFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH MTNS OBSCURED IN CLDS. RAIN
HAS TAPERED TO SHOWERS ACROSS NY...BUT CIG AND VIS REMAIN MVFR AND
DUE TO PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. LLWS STILL
PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION... BUT WILL DIMINISH AFTER 14Z AS LLJ
SHIFTS EAST. VIS AND CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS MOST TAF
SITES AFTER 17S...EXCEPT KSLK AS WSW FLOW WILL KEEP CEILINGS LOW.
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AFTER
00Z...AND CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AT KMPV...KMSS...KSLK. SOUTH
TO SW AND INCR TO 12-20 KTS BY AFTERNOON...WILL DIMINISH AFTER TO
LESS THAN 10KT AFTER 02Z

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
00Z SAT-18Z SAT...MVFR IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. GUSTY WEST WINDS.
18Z SAT-12Z MON...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
12Z MON-12Z TUE...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN.
12Z TUE-00Z WED...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG/EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...AMF
AVIATION...AMF/RJS

000
FXUS61 KALY 201453
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
953 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT BROUGHT US THE WET WEATHER
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF OUR AREA
REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A
SECONDARY FRONT COMBINED WITH COLDER AIR FUNNELING ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO...WILL RESULT IN SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 952 AM EST...OCCLUDED FRONT IS WELL EAST OF THE CWA...CURRENTLY
CROSSING EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS HAS ALLOWED DRIER AIR TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION WITHIN CAA. WITH THE FORCING EAST OF THE
AREA...KENX RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN SHOWING NO PRECIP LEFT ACROSS
THE REGION...SO WILL DROP POPS IN ALL AREAS. WILL CONTINUE TO
ALLOW FOR LOW CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE DACKS...AS VORTICITY
SPIRALING AROUND THE LARGE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY MAY STILL ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS THERE THIS AFTN. SKIES
HAVE BECOME SCT ACROSS THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEY AREAS...SO
HAVE DECREASED CLOUD COVER FOR THIS MORNING AS WELL. TEMPS HAVE
ACTUALLY DROPPED A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT
STILL APPEAR ON TARGET TO REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA. IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY...MIXING HAS ALLOWED
WESTERLY WINDS TO BE GUSTY...WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. THIS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND CHANNELED VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SECONDARY FRONT EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA
TONIGHT AND WEAKEN IN VICINITY OF SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AS
COLDER AIR FUNNELS ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THIS
AREA ONLY DOWN IN THE MID 30S...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET MUCH
ACCUMULATION...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY ABOVE 2000 FEET MAY
PICK UP A HALF INCH OF SN0W. SOME SHOWERS MAY WORK AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND AS FAR EAST AS SOUTHERN VERMONT BUT HAVE
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THESE AREAS. REMAINDER OF FA
EXPECTED TO BE DRY OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS LATE. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOKS DRY EXCEPT FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED
LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WHICH WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AS
THE FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
ACROSS FA LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY.

EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUN NT-MON NT...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING NEXT STORM
SYSTEM...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST...AS THE
00Z/20 GFS AND MAJORITY OF MREF MEMBERS DEPICT WIDESPREAD RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION MON INTO MON NT...WHILE THE 00Z/20 GEM/ECMWF/UKMET
INDICATE THAT BEST CHC OF RAIN OCCURS ACROSS S/E PORTIONS OF
REGION...WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN ACROSS N/W AREAS. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE INDICATED CHC POPS...HIGHEST TO THE S/E...STARTING EARLY
MON...AND ENDING LATE MON NT. FOR SUN NT...HAVE INDICATED SLIGHT CHC
POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...AND NIL TO THE N...AS HIGH PRESSURE MAY
SLOW THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF PRECIP SOMEWHAT.
OTHERWISE...ASSUMING CLOUDS AND PRECIP...EXPECT MAX TEMPS MON TO
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 50
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WHILE OVERNIGHT MINS MON AM FALL INTO THE
30S...WITH PERHAPS SOME 20S ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS...WITH
WIDESPREAD MID/UPPER 30S EXPECTED FOR MON NT/TUE AM. SUN NT/MON AM
MINS MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...AS CLOUDS POTENTIALLY INCREASE.

TUE-THU...FAIRLY HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS PERIOD...AS
THE GFS DEPICTS A POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING ON
THANKSGIVING...WHILE THE GEM/ECMWF HINT AT A MORE PROGRESSIVE
LOW...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH ANY LOW DEEPENING TO OUR N/E. AT THIS TIME...HAVE
INDICATED ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS TUE-WED...THEN CHC POPS FOR THU...FOR
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS...AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. EXPECT A COOLING TREND DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH WARMEST
MAXES ON TUE GENERALLY IN THE 50S...FALLING TO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER
50S FOR WED...AND MAINLY 40S BY THU...WITH EVEN SOME 30S POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR MINS...EXPECT MAINLY MID/UPPER 30S
FOR TUE/WED AM...WITH LOWER/MID 30S POSSIBLE THU AM...ALONG WITH
SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES
EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
WEST ON SATURDAY.

KGFL...CONDITIONS WILL INITIALLY RANGE FROM MVFR TO IFR...MAINLY FOR
CIGS...THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
INTO THE VFR RANGE...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE. FOR TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY.
THEN...DEPENDING ON WHETHER THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...SOME REDUCTIONS
IN VSBY IS POSSIBLE AFTER 08Z/SAT DUE TO GROUND FOG. AS FOR
RAIN...WE EXPECT SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 13Z...THEN END.
WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING...AND REMAIN MAINLY
SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KT...WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO 15-20 KT POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT TO LESS THAN 5 KT.

KALB...CONDITIONS WILL INITIALLY RANGE FROM MVFR TO IFR...MAINLY FOR
CIGS...THROUGH ABOUT 13Z. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
INTO THE VFR RANGE...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE. FOR TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. AS FOR
RAIN...WE EXPECT SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 13Z IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT...THEN END. WINDS HAVE ALREADY SHIFTED INTO THE WEST...AND
WILL REMAIN MAINLY WEST AT 10-15 KT...WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO
20-25 KT POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT TO LESS THAN 10 KT.

KPOU...INITIALLY VFR TO MVFR...MAINLY FOR CIGS...THEN EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS INTO AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD
DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...POTENTIALLY REDUCING VSBYS INTO THE
MVFR/IFR RANGE TOWARD DAYBREAK. AS FOR RAIN...WITH FRONT NOW EAST OF
KPOU...DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TODAY OR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN NGT...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...CHC MVFR -RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE GENERALLY
RANGED FROM A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
TO A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
NEW YORK WITH AS MUCH AS 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. EXPECT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS
IN EASTERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING OF A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH
IN MOST AREAS WITH ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND OF A
THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THE EFFECT ON THE RIVERS OF
THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED RUNOFF WILL VARY QUITE A
BIT WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RISES ON RIVERS IN THE ADIRONDACKS
AND MOHAWK VALLEY EAST THROUGH THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION
INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES WHERE THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED AND WHERE THE GROUND
MOISTURE IS HIGHEST. RIVER RISES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ARE EXPECTED ON
MANY RIVERS IN THESE AREAS...BUT WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW BANKFULL.

THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE OVER WITH BY MID MORNING...WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL
ALLOW RIVERS TO RECEDE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME LAKE
ENHANCED RELATIVELY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM THE ADIRONDACKS INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH QPF AMOUNTS
GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11

000
FXUS61 KBTV 201302
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
802 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION OFF AND
ON THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AND TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER...CLEARING
SKIES...AND TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EST FRIDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. THIS FEATURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER DIFFLUENT PATTERN AHEAD OF UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO
PROVINCE. DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN RAIN SHIELD
ACROSS VERMONT THIS MORNING BEFORE DRY SLOT MOVES IN.
PRECIPITATION WILL THEN BE CONFINED TO AREAS JUST EAST OF UPPER
LOW...WHICH DOES MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK LATER TODAY. THUS
LOOKING AT SHOWERS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND FAR NORTHERN VERMONT. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. THERE SHOULD BE SOME
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL EXIST OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
NEW YORK AND VERMONT. SNOW LEVEL WILL BE LOWERING TO ABOUT 2000
FEET AND THERE COULD BE SOME VERY MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS VERTICAL DEPTH OF
MOISTURE BECOMES LIMITED. THIS DESPITE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW
COMPONENT. THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM
EST FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND
BECOMES ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
DRYING TREND WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED BOTH DAYS. MORE SUN
IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 322 AM EST FRIDAY...WINTER-LIKE WEATHER HAS BEEN
ELUSIVE...BY MAY BRUSH THE NORTH COUNTRY BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING MONDAY THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE...WITH THE RIDGE
SLIDING EAST AND A BROAD TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHEAST.
WITH THIS SETUP WE WILL SEE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AND CONTINUE OUR TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPS...BUT THIS TIME WITHOUT WIDE DIURNAL SWINGS THANKS TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. LOOK FOR THE POTENTIAL OF RAIN SHOWERS
BEGINNING MONDAY AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN THE GULF THIS WEEKEND
AND MOVES UP ALONG THE EAST COAST MONDAY. WITH THE TAIL END OF
THE RIDGE STILL OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY MONDAY...THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN SOUTHERN LOCATIONS...AND
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS WILL LIKELY
BE A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM THE THREAT OF SHOWERS DIMINISHES TUES
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE BRIEF AS ANOTHER SYSTEM...A WEAKENING
FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES...MOVES IN SPREADING THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST. BY WEDNESDAY A
FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH...AT LEAST RELATIVE TO RECENT PATTERNS...WILL
MOVE OVER THE NORTHEAST...KEEPING US IN A SHOWERY REGIME. TOWARD
THURSDAY WE COULD SEE OUR FIRST PUNCH OF COOLER AIR ALOFT IN
QUITE SOME TIME...WITH A SFC COLD FRONT SWINGING SOUTH OUT OF
ONTARIO. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS RATHER MOISTURE STARVED...BUT COULD BE
OUR FIRST OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...OCCLUDED BOUNDARY IS MOVING THROUGH THE
CEILING WITH MODERATE RAIN ACROSS VT. GENERALLY IFR AND MVFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH MTNS OBSCURED IN CLDS. RAIN
HAS TAPERED TO SHOWERS ACROSS NY...BUT CIG AND VIS REMAIN MVFR AND
DUE TO PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. LLWS STILL
PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION... BUT WILL DIMINISH AFTER 14Z AS LLJ
SHIFTS EAST. VIS AND CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS MOST TAF
SITES AFTER 17S...EXCEPT KSLK AS WSW FLOW WILL KEEP CEILINGS LOW.
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AFTER
00Z...AND CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AT KMPV...KMSS...KSLK. SOUTH
TO SW AND INCR TO 12-20 KTS BY AFTERNOON...WILL DIMINISH AFTER TO
LESS THAN 10KT AFTER 02Z

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
00Z SAT-18Z SAT...MVFR IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. GUSTY WEST WINDS.
18Z SAT-12Z MON...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
12Z MON-12Z TUE...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN.
12Z TUE-00Z WED...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...AMF
AVIATION...AMF/RJS

000
FXUS61 KALY 201142
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
631 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT BROUGHT US THE WET WEATHER
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF OUR AREA
REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A
SECONDARY FRONT COMBINED WITH COLDER AIR FUNNELING ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO...WILL RESULT IN SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OCCLUDED FRONT AT 09Z JUST EAST OF KRME AND KMSV AND MOVING
QUICKLY E. HAVE ONLY LEFT THE THREAT OF THUNDER AND CAT POPS IN
UNTIL 12Z AS BACK EDGE OF PCPN SHIELD ALREADY INTO MOHAWK VALLEY
AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND BULK OF PCPN SHOULD BE OVER IN EASTERN
NY BY 12Z AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY 14Z. AS MENTIONED LAST NIGHT
WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS EXPECTED AND THEY HAVE OCCURRED WITH KDDH
REPORTING 35 KTS AT 0715Z. THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS MAINLY AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT AND IN AREAS WHERE
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE CHANNELED. EVEN AFTER FROPA SOME GUSTS TO 30
OR 35 MPH POSSIBLE FROM THE WEST ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
AND IN EAST-WEST VALLEYS SUCH AS THE MOHAWK VALLEY. ONCE
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF LATER THIS MORNING...BULK OF FA WILL BE
DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS A LARGE DRY SLOT MOVES IN
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SURFACE LOW LIFTING QUICKLY NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE. THE ONLY AREA WHERE SHOWERS WILL
LINGER THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE LIKELY
BEING ENHANCED BY A SECONDARY VORT LOBE.

TEMPS NEVER DROPPED MUCH OVERNIGHT AND ROSE IN SOME AREAS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND EVEN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING WOULD
EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES FROM CURRENT VALUES.
THUS HAVE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT SOME LOWER 60S NEAR KPOU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SECONDARY FRONT EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA
TONIGHT AND WEAKEN IN VICINITY OF SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AS
COLDER AIR FUNNELS ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THIS
AREA ONLY DOWN IN THE MID 30S...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET MUCH
ACCUMULATION...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY ABOVE 2000 FEET MAY
PICK UP A HALF INCH OF SN0W. SOME SHOWERS MAY WORK AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND AS FAR EAST AS SOUTHERN VERMONT BUT HAVE
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THESE AREAS. REMAINDER OF FA
EXPECTED TO BE DRY OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS LATE. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOKS DRY EXCEPT FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED
LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WHICH WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AS
THE FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
ACROSS FA LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY.

EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUN NT-MON NT...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING NEXT STORM
SYSTEM...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST...AS THE
00Z/20 GFS AND MAJORITY OF MREF MEMBERS DEPICT WIDESPREAD RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION MON INTO MON NT...WHILE THE 00Z/20 GEM/ECMWF/UKMET
INDICATE THAT BEST CHC OF RAIN OCCURS ACROSS S/E PORTIONS OF
REGION...WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN ACROSS N/W AREAS. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE INDICATED CHC POPS...HIGHEST TO THE S/E...STARTING EARLY
MON...AND ENDING LATE MON NT. FOR SUN NT...HAVE INDICATED SLIGHT CHC
POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...AND NIL TO THE N...AS HIGH PRESSURE MAY
SLOW THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF PRECIP SOMEWHAT.
OTHERWISE...ASSUMING CLOUDS AND PRECIP...EXPECT MAX TEMPS MON TO
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 50
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WHILE OVERNIGHT MINS MON AM FALL INTO THE
30S...WITH PERHAPS SOME 20S ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS...WITH
WIDESPREAD MID/UPPER 30S EXPECTED FOR MON NT/TUE AM. SUN NT/MON AM
MINS MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...AS CLOUDS POTENTIALLY INCREASE.

TUE-THU...FAIRLY HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS PERIOD...AS
THE GFS DEPICTS A POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING ON
THANKSGIVING...WHILE THE GEM/ECMWF HINT AT A MORE PROGRESSIVE
LOW...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH ANY LOW DEEPENING TO OUR N/E. AT THIS TIME...HAVE
INDICATED ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS TUE-WED...THEN CHC POPS FOR THU...FOR
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS...AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. EXPECT A COOLING TREND DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH WARMEST
MAXES ON TUE GENERALLY IN THE 50S...FALLING TO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER
50S FOR WED...AND MAINLY 40S BY THU...WITH EVEN SOME 30S POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR MINS...EXPECT MAINLY MID/UPPER 30S
FOR TUE/WED AM...WITH LOWER/MID 30S POSSIBLE THU AM...ALONG WITH
SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES
EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
WEST ON SATURDAY.

KGFL...CONDITIONS WILL INITIALLY RANGE FROM MVFR TO IFR...MAINLY FOR
CIGS...THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
INTO THE VFR RANGE...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE. FOR TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY.
THEN...DEPENDING ON WHETHER THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...SOME REDUCTIONS
IN VSBY IS POSSIBLE AFTER 08Z/SAT DUE TO GROUND FOG. AS FOR
RAIN...WE EXPECT SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 13Z...THEN END.
WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING...AND REMAIN MAINLY
SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KT...WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO 15-20 KT POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT TO LESS THAN 5 KT.

KALB...CONDITIONS WILL INITIALLY RANGE FROM MVFR TO IFR...MAINLY FOR
CIGS...THROUGH ABOUT 13Z. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
INTO THE VFR RANGE...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE. FOR TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. AS FOR
RAIN...WE EXPECT SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 13Z IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT...THEN END. WINDS HAVE ALREADY SHIFTED INTO THE WEST...AND
WILL REMAIN MAINLY WEST AT 10-15 KT...WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO
20-25 KT POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT TO LESS THAN 10 KT.

KPOU...INITIALLY VFR TO MVFR...MAINLY FOR CIGS...THEN EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS INTO AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD
DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...POTENTIALLY REDUCING VSBYS INTO THE
MVFR/IFR RANGE TOWARD DAYBREAK. AS FOR RAIN...WITH FRONT NOW EAST OF
KPOU...DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TODAY OR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN NGT...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...CHC MVFR -RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE GENERALLY
RANGED FROM A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
TO A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
NEW YORK WITH AS MUCH AS 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. EXPECT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS
IN EASTERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING OF A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH
IN MOST AREAS WITH ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND OF A
THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THE EFFECT ON THE RIVERS OF
THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED RUNOFF WILL VARY QUITE A
BIT WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RISES ON RIVERS IN THE ADIRONDACKS
AND MOHAWK VALLEY EAST THROUGH THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION
INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES WHERE THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED AND WHERE THE GROUND
MOISTURE IS HIGHEST. RIVER RISES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ARE EXPECTED ON
MANY RIVERS IN THESE AREAS...BUT WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW BANKFULL.

THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE OVER WITH BY MID MORNING...WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL
ALLOW RIVERS TO RECEDE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME LAKE
ENHANCED RELATIVELY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM THE ADIRONDACKS INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH QPF AMOUNTS
GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11