[top]
000
FXUS61 KRLX 242336
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
636 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AFFECTS THE AREA FOR
THANKSGIVING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HANG ON GENERALLY WEST OF I-77.
MODELS PEGGED THIS AREA WITH INCREASED MOISTURE DEPTH...AND IT IS
LIKELY TAKING LONGER FOR LOW SUN ANGLE TO WORK ON THEM. CLOUDS ARE
ERODING FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY THOUGH...AND
STILL EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO BREAK UP AND LIFT OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.
THIS EVENING...ANY LEFTOVER CU WILL DISSIPATE...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR MOST. MAIN PLAYER AFTER THAT IS SHORT WAVE WHICH ROTATES
ACROSS SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY...TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT
AS IT DOES SO. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS CWA ON
WEDNESDAY. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING...EXPECT THE BOUNDARY
TO BE APPROACHING HTS BY 12Z...AND IN THE MOUNTAINS BY 20Z OR SO.
COULD SEE SOME EARLY ISOLATED UPSLOPE SHRA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ALONG
THE EAST-FACING SLOPES. OVERALL PRECIP POTENTIAL IS SLIM. WITH
UPPER JET POISED TO CROSS OVERHEAD...LITTLE UPPER DIVERGENCE IS
NOTED. ALSO...MOISTURE IS LACKING AS THERE IS NO GULF CONNECTION
DESPITE SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD...THE JUICE IS CUT OFF AS BASE OF
TROUGH DIGS SOUTH. THUS HAVE MINIMAL POPS OVERALL. CONFINING 30ISH
POPS TO NEAR/WEST OF THE OHIO CLOSER TO BETTER MIDLEVEL
SUPPORT...WITH ISOLATED POPS TO THE EAST. THINK ANY PRECIP ENDS
PRIOR TO 00Z AS MOISTURE DEPTH TEMPORARILY DROPS.
STUCK WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE MET/MAV
OVERNIGHT WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. WENT AT OR UNDER FOR
WEDNESDAY FOR SAME REASON...PLAYING A SLIGHTLY SMALLER DIURNAL
RANGE. DO NOT FORESEE FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BEHIND
BOUNDARY WITH SW FLOW ADVECTING IN MARGINALLY COLDER H850
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BEHIND WEDNESDAYS COLD FRONT...RELATIVELY DRIER BUT COLDER AIRMASS
MOVES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON H8
DESCENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH FREEZING...AND MINUS 2C LINES
ENTERING SOUTHEAST OH BY 00-06Z THU. SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SUGGEST MINIMUM QPF AS SREF AND ECMWF BRING FASTER TO THE AREA WED
NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THEREFORE...KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS..SOUTHEAST OH AND EXTREME NORTHERN WV WED NIGHT.
WITH COLD ADVECTION...AND CLOUDS INVADING THE SKIES...FIGURED LOWS
CLOSER TO THE BIAS CORRECTED NAM AND SREF NUMBERS FOR WED NIGHT.
HOWEVER...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING A CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN FOR THANKSGIVING WEEKEND. MODELS ARE FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH THE H5 LOWS CENTER TRACK...STRONG H5 VORT MAX...AND PVA
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. DEEPER MOISTURE...AND DESCENT COLD ADVECTION
INCREASE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGING GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS...CHANGING TO MIX PCPN AND THEN TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL START OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS EARLY THU
EVENING...AND THEN ACROSS THE LOWLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE BEST FORCING WITH THE COLD FRONT OCCURS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
H7 FRONTOGENESIS...COUPLED WITH Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ALOFT.
DUE TO WARM GROUNDS AND LIMITED MOISTURE...MOST OF THE FIRST SNOW
WILL MELT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS LEAVING VERY SMALL ACCUMULATIONS IF
ANY. HOWEVER...SNOW WILL BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE OVER THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF RANDOLPH AND POCAHONTAS COUNTIES ON THU.
A SECOND SOURCE OF FORCING MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH ADDITIONAL
PVA...PRESSURE IN THE 1.5 PVU ISENTROPIC SURFACE REACHING 625 MB PER
NAM12/GFS...DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE...AND H8
TEMPS BETWEEN MINUS 5 AND 7 CELSIUS PROVIDES BETTER SNOW
PROBABILITIES.
THE SREF PROBABILITIES OF 12 HOURS SNOW EXCEEDING ONE INCH ABOUT
NEAR 70 PERCENT...AND HPC WWD GUIDANCE SHOWING A BROAD TWO INCHES
ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS...COMBINED WITH THE
UPSLOPE EFFECT UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER PROVIDES
GOOD CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST. THEREFORE...INCREASE SNOW
ACCUMULATION FROM 4 UP TO 8 INCHES AT ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAT 3KFT OF
POCAHONTAS AND RANDOLPH...AND 1 TO 2 INCHES DOWN TO ELEVATIONS
HIGHER THAN 2KFT INCLUDING OTHER COUNTIES SOUTH THROUGH RALEIGH.
THESE ACCUMULATIONS MAY REQUIRE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW
AT LEAST AT POCAHONTAS AND RANDOLPH AS COUNTY AVERAGE ACCUMULATION
COULD ROUND UP TO APPROXIMATELY 4 INCHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS AGREE THE SNOW RAPIDLY WINDS DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH ONLY ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS LOTS OF
SUNSHINE FOR THE WEEKEND...AND A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND TO AT
LEAST NORMAL IF NOT A BIT ABOVE NORMAL READINGS BY SUNDAY. STILL...A
COLD NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE DRY AIR AND NEAR CALM CONDITIONS.
WHILE MODELS ADVERTISE A HIGH AMPLITUDE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH
AFFECTING THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT ON THE
EVOLUTION AND SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. THE EURO MODELS DEVELOP AN UPPER
LOW/SURFACE LOW IN THE SOUTHERN END OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES
EAST...MAKING IT LESS PROGRESSIVE...WHICH THEN AFFECTS OUR AREA
MAINLY LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OTHER MODELS LIKE THE GFS AND GEM
MAINTAIN AN OPEN AND MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WHICH DRIVES A
COLD FRONT THROUGH ON MONDAY...AFFECTING OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. HPC GUIDANCE PREFERS THE SLOWER SOLUTION...WHICH OUR
FORECAST REFLECTS. IN ANY CASE...THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE WIDE
OPEN AND ALLOW A QUITE MILD AND MOIST AIRMASS TO BRING RAIN SHOWERS
WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE BEST CHANCE WOULD THEN BE LATER MONDAY INTO
AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS DOMINATE WITH LOW END VFR CEILINGS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AFTER CALM CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING FOG
FORMATION TONIGHT.
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY IN RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CL/ARJ/JMV
NEAR TERM...CL
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...26
000
FXUS61 KRLX 242058 CCA
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
300 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AFFECTS THE AREA FOR
THANKSGIVING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HANG ON GENERALLY WEST OF I-77.
MODELS PEGGED THIS AREA WITH INCREASED MOISTURE DEPTH...AND IT IS
LIKELY TAKING LONGER FOR LOW SUN ANGLE TO WORK ON THEM. CLOUDS ARE
ERODING FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY THOUGH...AND
STILL EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO BREAK UP AND LIFT OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.
THIS EVENING...ANY LEFTOVER CU WILL DISSIPATE...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR MOST. MAIN PLAYER AFTER THAT IS SHORT WAVE WHICH ROTATES
ACROSS SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY...TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT
AS IT DOES SO. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS CWA ON
WEDNESDAY. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING...EXPECT THE BOUNDARY
TO BE APPROACHING HTS BY 12Z...AND IN THE MOUNTAINS BY 20Z OR SO.
COULD SEE SOME EARLY ISOLATED UPSLOPE SHRA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ALONG
THE EAST-FACING SLOPES. OVERALL PRECIP POTENTIAL IS SLIM. WITH
UPPER JET POISED TO CROSS OVERHEAD...LITTLE UPPER DIVERGENCE IS
NOTED. ALSO...MOISTURE IS LACKING AS THERE IS NO GULF CONNECTION
DESPITE SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD...THE JUICE IS CUT OFF AS BASE OF
TROUGH DIGS SOUTH. THUS HAVE MINIMAL POPS OVERALL. CONFINING 30ISH
POPS TO NEAR/WEST OF THE OHIO CLOSER TO BETTER MIDLEVEL
SUPPORT...WITH ISOLATED POPS TO THE EAST. THINK ANY PRECIP ENDS
PRIOR TO 00Z AS MOISTURE DEPTH TEMPORARILY DROPS.
STUCK WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE MET/MAV
OVERNIGHT WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. WENT AT OR UNDER FOR
WEDNESDAY FOR SAME REASON...PLAYING A SLIGHTLY SMALLER DIURNAL
RANGE. DO NOT FORESEE FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BEHIND
BOUNDARY WITH SW FLOW ADVECTING IN MARGINALLY COLDER H850
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEHIND WEDNESDAYS COLD FRONT...RELATIVELY DRIER BUT COLDER AIRMASS
MOVES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON H8
DESCENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH FREEZING...AND MINUS 2C LINES
ENTERING SOUTHEAST OH BY 00-06Z THU. SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SUGGEST MINIMUM QPF AS SREF AND ECMWF BRING FASTER TO THE AREA WED
NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THEREFORE...KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS..SOUTHEAST OH AND EXTREME NORTHERN WV WED NIGHT.
WITH COLD ADVECTION...AND CLOUDS INVADING THE SKIES...FIGURED LOWS
CLOSER TO THE BIAS CORRECTED NAM AND SREF NUMBERS FOR WED NIGHT.
HOWEVER...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING A CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN FOR THANKSGIVING WEEKEND. MODELS ARE FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH THE H5 LOWS CENTER TRACK...STRONG H5 VORT MAX...AND PVA
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. DEEPER MOISTURE...AND DESCENT COLD ADVECTION
INCREASE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGING GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS...CHANGING TO MIX PCPN AND THEN TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL START OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS EARLY THU
EVENING...AND THEN ACROSS THE LOWLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE BEST FORCING WITH THE COLD FRONT OCCURS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
H7 FRONTOGENESIS...COUPLED WITH Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ALOFT.
DUE TO WARM GROUNDS AND LIMITED MOISTURE...MOST OF THE FIRST SNOW
WILL MELT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS LEAVING VERY SMALL ACCUMULATIONS IF
ANY. HOWEVER...SNOW WILL BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE OVER THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF RANDOLPH AND POCAHONTAS COUNTIES ON THU.
A SECOND SOURCE OF FORCING MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH ADDITIONAL
PVA...PRESSURE IN THE 1.5 PVU ISENTROPIC SURFACE REACHING 625 MB PER
NAM12/GFS...DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE...AND H8
TEMPS BETWEEN MINUS 5 AND 7 CELSIUS PROVIDES BETTER SNOW
PROBABILITIES.
THE SREF PROBABILITIES OF 12 HOURS SNOW EXCEEDING ONE INCH ABOUT
NEAR 70 PERCENT...AND HPC WWD GUIDANCE SHOWING A BROAD TWO INCHES
ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS...COMBINED WITH THE
UPSLOPE EFFECT UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER PROVIDES
GOOD CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST. THEREFORE...INCREASE SNOW
ACCUMULATION FROM 4 UP TO 8 INCHES AT ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAT 3KFT OF
POCAHONTAS AND RANDOLPH...AND 1 TO 2 INCHES DOWN TO ELEVATIONS
HIGHER THAN 2KFT INCLUDING OTHER COUNTIES SOUTH THROUGH RALEIGH.
THESE ACCUMULATIONS MAY REQUIRE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW
AT LEAST AT POCAHONTAS AND RANDOLPH AS COUNTY AVERAGE ACCUMULATION
COULD ROUND UP TO APPROXIMATELY 4 INCHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS AGREE THE SNOW RAPIDLY WINDS DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH ONLY ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS LOTS OF
SUNSHINE FOR THE WEEKEND...AND A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND TO AT
LEAST NORMAL IF NOT A BIT ABOVE NORMAL READINGS BY SUNDAY. STILL...A
COLD NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE DRY AIR AND NEAR CALM CONDITIONS.
WHILE MODELS ADVERTISE A HIGH AMPLITUDE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH
AFFECTING THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT ON THE
EVOLUTION AND SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. THE EURO MODELS DEVELOP AN UPPER
LOW/SURFACE LOW IN THE SOUTHERN END OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES
EAST...MAKING IT LESS PROGRESSIVE...WHICH THEN AFFECTS OUR AREA
MAINLY LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OTHER MODELS LIKE THE GFS AND GEM
MAINTAIN AN OPEN AND MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WHICH DRIVES A
COLD FRONT THROUGH ON MONDAY...AFFECTING OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. HPC GUIDANCE PREFERS THE SLOWER SOLUTION...WHICH OUR
FORECAST REFLECTS. IN ANY CASE...THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE WIDE
OPEN AND ALLOW A QUITE MILD AND MOIST AIRMASS TO BRING RAIN SHOWERS
WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE BEST CHANCE WOULD THEN BE LATER MONDAY INTO
AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOG IS MOSTLY GONE AND CIGS HAVE LIFTED TO THE MVFR LEVEL. EXPECT
THICKER CLOUDS OVER WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA/NORTHEAST KENTUCKY TO
BREAK UP SLOWLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS EAST OF I-77 ARE
SEEING AT LEAST SOME SUN...BUT EXPECT VFR CU TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. VFR CONTINUES THIS EVENING IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW.
WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES TOWARD SUNRISE...REACHING THE HTS
VICINITY AROUND 13/14Z AND ZIPPING INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY 20Z.
ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED AT MOST...WITH MVFR CIGS BEING THE MAIN
IMPACT.
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY IN RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CL/ARJ/JMV
NEAR TERM...CL
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...CL
000
FXUS61 KRLX 242032
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
300 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AFFECTS THE AREA FOR
THANKSGIVING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HANG ON GENERALLY WEST OF I-77.
MODELS PEGGED THIS AREA WITH INCREASED MOISTURE DEPTH...AND IT IS
LIKELY TAKING LONGER FOR LOW SUN ANGLE TO WORK ON THEM. CLOUDS ARE
ERODING FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY THOUGH...AND
STILL EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO BREAK UP AND LIFT OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.
THIS EVENING...ANY LEFTOVER CU WILL DISSIPATE...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR MOST. MAIN PLAYER AFTER THAT IS SHORT WAVE WHICH ROTATES
ACROSS SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY...TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT
AS IT DOES SO. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS CWA ON
WEDNESDAY. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING...EXPECT THE BOUNDARY
TO BE APPROACHING HTS BY 12Z...AND IN THE MOUNTAINS BY 20Z OR SO.
COULD SEE SOME EARLY ISOLATED UPSLOPE SHRA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ALONG
THE EAST-FACING SLOPES. OVERALL PRECIP POTENTIAL IS SLIM. WITH
UPPER JET POISED TO CROSS OVERHEAD...LITTLE UPPER DIVERGENCE IS
NOTED. ALSO...MOISTURE IS LACKING AS THERE IS NO GULF CONNECTION
DESPITE SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD...THE JUICE IS CUT OFF AS BASE OF
TROUGH DIGS SOUTH. THUS HAVE MINIMAL POPS OVERALL. CONFINING 30ISH
POPS TO NEAR/WEST OF THE OHIO CLOSER TO BETTER MIDLEVEL
SUPPORT...WITH ISOLATED POPS TO THE EAST. THINK ANY PRECIP ENDS
PRIOR TO 00Z AS MOISTURE DEPTH TEMPORARILY DROPS.
STUCK WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE MET/MAV
OVERNIGHT WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. WENT AT OR UNDER FOR
WEDNESDAY FOR SAME REASON...PLAYING A SLIGHTLY SMALLER DIURNAL
RANGE. DO NOT FORESEE FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BEHIND
BOUNDARY WITH SW FLOW ADVECTING IN MARGINALLY COLDER H850
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEHIND WEDNESDAYS COLD FRONT...RELATIVELY DRIER BUT COLDER AIRMASS
MOVES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON H8
DESCENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH FREEZING...AND MINUS 2C LINES
ENTERING SOUTHEAST OH BY 00-06Z THU. SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SUGGEST MINIMUM QPF AS SREF AND ECMWF BRING FASTER BRINGING WED
NIGHT INTO THU MORNING IN ANY. THEREFORE...KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MAINLY NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS..SOUTHEAST OH AND EXTREME NORTHERN WV WED
NIGHT. WITH COLD ADVECTION...AND CLOUDS INVADING THE SKIES...FIGURED
LOWS CLOSER TO THE BIAS CORRECTED NAM AND SREF NUMBERS FOR WED
NIGHT.
HOWEVER...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING A CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN FOR THANKSGIVING WEEKEND. MODELS ARE FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH THE H5 LOWS CENTER TRACK...STRONG H5 VORT MAX...AND PVA
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. DEEPER MOISTURE...AND DESCENT COLD ADVECTION
INCREASE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGING GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS...CHANGING TO MIX PCPN AND THEN TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL START OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS EARLY THU
EVENING...AND THEN ACROSS THE LOWLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE BEST FORCING WITH THE COLD FRONT OCCURS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
H7 FRONTOGENESIS...COUPLED WITH Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ALOFT.
DUE TO WARM GROUNDS AND LIMITED MOISTURE...MOST OF THE FIRST SNOW
WILL MELT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS LEAVING VERY SMALL ACCUMULATIONS IF
ANY. HOWEVER...SNOW WILL BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE OVER THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF RANDOLPH AND POCAHONTAS COUNTIES ON THU.
A SECOND SOURCE OF FORCING MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH ADDITIONAL
PVA...PRESSURE IN THE 1.5 PVU ISENTROPIC SURFACE REACHING 625 MB PER
NAM12/GFS...DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE...AND H8
TEMPS BETWEEN MINUS 5 AND 7 CELSIUS PROVIDES BETTER SNOW
PROBABILITIES.
THE SREF PROBABILITIES OF 12 HOURS SNOW EXCEEDING ONE INCH ABOUT
NEAR 70 PERCENT...AND HPC WWD GUIDANCE SHOWING A BROAD TWO INCHES
ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS...COMBINED WITH THE
UPSLOPE EFFECT UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER PROVIDES
GOOD CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST. THEREFORE...INCREASE SNOW
ACCUMULATION FROM 4 UP TO 8 INCHES AT ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAT 3KFT OF
POCAHONTAS AND RANDOLPH...AND 1 TO 2 INCHES DOWN TO ELEVATIONS
HIGHER THAN 2KFT INCLUDING OTHER COUNTIES SOUTH THROUGH RALEIGH.
THESE ACCUMULATIONS MAY REQUIRE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW
AT LEAST AT POCAHONTAS AND RANDOLPH AS COUNTY AVERAGE ACCUMULATION
COULD ROUND UP TO APPROXIMATELY 4 INCHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS AGREE THE SNOW RAPIDLY WINDS DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH ONLY ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS LOTS OF
SUNSHINE FOR THE WEEKEND...AND A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND TO AT
LEAST NORMAL IF NOT A BIT ABOVE NORMAL READINGS BY SUNDAY. STILL...A
COLD NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE DRY AIR AND NEAR CALM CONDITIONS.
WHILE MODELS ADVERTISE A HIGH AMPLITUDE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH
AFFECTING THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT ON THE
EVOLUTION AND SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. THE EURO MODELS DEVELOP AN UPPER
LOW/SURFACE LOW IN THE SOUTHERN END OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES
EAST...MAKING IT LESS PROGRESSIVE...WHICH THEN AFFECTS OUR AREA
MAINLY LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OTHER MODELS LIKE THE GFS AND GEM
MAINTAIN AN OPEN AND MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WHICH DRIVES A
COLD FRONT THROUGH ON MONDAY...AFFECTING OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. HPC GUIDANCE PREFERS THE SLOWER SOLUTION...WHICH OUR
FORECAST REFLECTS. IN ANY CASE...THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE WIDE
OPEN AND ALLOW A QUITE MILD AND MOIST AIRMASS TO BRING RAIN SHOWERS
WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE BEST CHANCE WOULD THEN BE LATER MONDAY INTO
AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOG IS MOSTLY GONE AND CIGS HAVE LIFTED TO THE MVFR LEVEL. EXPECT
THICKER CLOUDS OVER WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA/NORTHEAST KENTUCKY TO
BREAK UP SLOWLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS EAST OF I-77 ARE
SEEING AT LEAST SOME SUN...BUT EXPECT VFR CU TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. VFR CONTINUES THIS EVENING IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW.
WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES TOWARD SUNRISE...REACHING THE HTS
VICINITY AROUND 13/14Z AND ZIPPING INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY 20Z.
ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED AT MOST...WITH MVFR CIGS BEING THE MAIN
IMPACT.
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY IN RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CL/ARJ/JMV
NEAR TERM...CL
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...CL
000
FXUS61 KRLX 241741
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1241 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AFFECTS THE
AREA DURING THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN MORNING SOUNDINGS...BEING REALIZED AS
LOW CLOUDS/FOG. BREAKS ARE FORMING THOUGH...AND EXPECT THESE TO
CONTINUE AND BE FILLED IN BY CU LATER AS HEATING GETS GOING. EXPECT
THESE TO BE MOST NUMEROUS IN SOUTHEAST OHIO...WHERE MODELS ARE
PEGGING THE MOST MOISTURE. THUS...FORESEE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN
THIS AFTERNOON. BACKED OFF ON HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS AND LAV GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST WEDNESDAY. MODELS AS WELL AS HPC
SUGGEST MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA.
THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF DRY PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW AND A TRAILING TROF MOVES
IN THANKSGIVING DAY. MODELS SUGGEST THANKSGIVING DAY INTO FRIDAY
WILL BE A WET PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WEST
VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS.
WITH EVERYTHING COMING TOGETHER...HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO CATEGORICAL
ACROSS THE WESTERN FACING SLOPES THURSDAY NIGHT.
COLDER AIR WILL FLOW INTO THE REGION LATE THANKSGIVING DAY...
CHANGING THE PRECIPITATION TO SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHEST
ELEVATION.
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN ACROSS THE LOWLAND COUNTIES
ON FRIDAY...WITH SNOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
SNOW IS THEN POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
ONE OF OUR WINTER WEATHER SCRIPTS THAT FORECASTS SNOW AMOUNTS
SUGGEST THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY...BRINGING THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO AN END.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL PUSH
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...WITH CLOUDS AND INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE TWEAKED TO REFLECT LATEST
GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOG IS MOSTLY GONE AND CIGS HAVE LIFTED TO THE MVFR LEVEL. EXPECT
THICKER CLOUDS OVER WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA/NORTHEAST KENTUCKY TO
BREAK UP SLOWLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS EAST OF I-77 ARE
SEEING AT LEAST SOME SUN...BUT EXPECT VFR CU TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. VFR CONTINUES THIS EVENING IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW.
WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES TOWARD SUNRISE...REACHING THE HTS
VICINITY AROUND 12Z AND ZIPPING INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY 18Z. ISOLATED
SHOWERS EXPECTED AT MOST...WITH MVFR CIGS BEING THE MAIN IMPACT.
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY IN RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/MDP/RPY
NEAR TERM...CL
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...JSH/MDP
AVIATION...CL
000
FXUS61 KRLX 241449
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
941 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AFFECTS THE
AREA DURING THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN MORNING SOUNDINGS...BEING REALIZED AS
LOW CLOUDS/FOG. BREAKS ARE FORMING THOUGH...AND EXPECT THESE TO
CONTINUE AND BE FILLED IN BY CU LATER AS HEATING GETS GOING. EXPECT
THESE TO BE MOST NUMEROUS IN SOUTHEAST OHIO...WHERE MODELS ARE
PEGGING THE MOST MOISTURE. THUS...FORESEE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN
THIS AFTERNOON. BACKED OFF ON HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS AND LAV GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST WEDNESDAY. MODELS AS WELL AS HPC
SUGGEST MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA.
THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF DRY PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW AND A TRAILING TROF MOVES
IN THANKSGIVING DAY. MODELS SUGGEST THANKSGIVING DAY INTO FRIDAY
WILL BE A WET PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WEST
VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS.
WITH EVERYTHING COMING TOGETHER...HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO CATEGORICAL
ACROSS THE WESTERN FACING SLOPES THURSDAY NIGHT.
COLDER AIR WILL FLOW INTO THE REGION LATE THANKSGIVING DAY...
CHANGING THE PRECIPITATION TO SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHEST
ELEVATION.
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN ACROSS THE LOWLAND COUNTIES
ON FRIDAY...WITH SNOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
SNOW IS THEN POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
ONE OF OUR WINTER WEATHER SCRIPTS THAT FORECASTS SNOW AMOUNTS
SUGGEST THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY...BRINGING THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO AN END.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL PUSH
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...WITH CLOUDS AND INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE TWEAKED TO REFLECT LATEST
GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME AREAS THAT GOT SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT DEVELOPED SOME DENSE
FOG. THIS FOG WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF...OR POSSIBLE LIFT AS A
STRATUS DECK BUILDS BACK OVER IT. STRATUS DECK OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND BREAK UP TODAY. EXPECTING CLEARING
THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH LATE TONIGHT.
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY IN RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/MDP/RPY
NEAR TERM...CL
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...JSH/MDP
AVIATION...RPY
000
FXUS61 KRLX 241020
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
515 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AFFECTS THE
AREA DURING THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NAM AND GFS STRUGGLING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS. RUC13
SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SITUATION...SO LEANED HEAVILY
ON THE RUC FOR THIS MORNING. EXPECT DENSE FOG IN AREAS THAT CLEAR
EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING
IN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL ADJUST POPS TO MODEL TIMING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST WEDNESDAY. MODELS AS WELL AS HPC
SUGGEST MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA.
THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF DRY PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW AND A TRAILING TROF MOVES
IN THANKSGIVING DAY. MODELS SUGGEST THANKSGIVING DAY INTO FRIDAY
WILL BE A WET PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WEST
VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS.
WITH EVERYTHING COMING TOGETHER...HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO CATEGORICAL
ACROSS THE WESTERN FACING SLOPES THURSDAY NIGHT.
COLDER AIR WILL FLOW INTO THE REGION LATE THANKSGIVING DAY...
CHANGING THE PRECIPITATION TO SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHEST
ELEVATION.
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN ACROSS THE LOWLAND COUNTIES
ON FRIDAY...WITH SNOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
SNOW IS THEN POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
ONE OF OUR WINTER WEATHER SCRIPTS THAT FORECASTS SNOW AMOUNTS
SUGGEST THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY...BRINGING THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO AN END.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL PUSH
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...WITH CLOUDS AND INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE TWEAKED TO REFLECT LATEST
GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME AREAS THAT GOT SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT DEVELOPED SOME DENSE
FOG. THIS FOG WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF...OR POSSIBLE LIFT AS A
STRATUS DECK BUILDS BACK OVER IT. STRATUS DECK OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND BREAK UP TODAY. EXPECTING CLEARING
THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH LATE TONIGHT.
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY IN RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/MDP/RPY
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...JSH/MDP
AVIATION...RPY
000
FXUS61 KRLX 240829
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
330 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AFFECTS THE
AREA DURING THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NAM AND GFS STRUGGLING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS. RUC13
SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SITUATION...SO LEANED HEAVILY
ON THE RUC FOR THIS MORNING. EXPECT DENSE FOG IN AREAS THAT CLEAR
EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING
IN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL ADJUST POPS TO MODEL TIMING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST WEDNESDAY. MODELS AS WELL AS HPC
SUGGEST MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA.
THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF DRY PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW AND A TRAILING TROF MOVES
IN THANKSGIVING DAY. MODELS SUGGEST THANKSGIVING DAY INTO FRIDAY
WILL BE A WET PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WEST
VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS.
WITH EVERYTHING COMING TOGETHER...HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO CATEGORICAL
ACROSS THE WESTERN FACING SLOPES THURSDAY NIGHT.
COLDER AIR WILL FLOW INTO THE REGION LATE THANKSGIVING DAY...
CHANGING THE PRECIPITATION TO SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHEST
ELEVATION.
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN ACROSS THE LOWLAND COUNTIES
ON FRIDAY...WITH SNOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
SNOW IS THEN POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
ONE OF OUR WINTER WEATHER SCRIPTS THAT FORECASTS SNOW AMOUNTS
SUGGEST THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY...BRINGING THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO AN END.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL PUSH
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...WITH CLOUDS AND INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE TWEAKED TO REFLECT LATEST
GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NAM AND GFS STRUGGLING WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION.
NAM IS ALREADY WAY OFF BASE AT 03Z. RUC13 APPEARS TO HAVE THE
CLOSEST GRASP OF THE CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SEEMS REASONABLE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. THEREFORE WILL LEAN
HEAVILY ON THE RUC FOR THE CLEARING HOLE THAT IS DEVELOPING OVER THE
REGION. WHERE CLOUDS CLEAR...EXPECT DENSE FOG TO FORM.
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY IN RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/MDP/RPY
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...JSH/MDP
AVIATION...RPY
000
FXUS61 KRLX 240544
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1240 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS EXITS NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT AFFECTS THE AREA DURING THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATED POPS/WX GRIDS PER LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWING
LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH LINGERING RAIN
OR DRIZZLE COULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THRU 12Z
TUESDAY.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS UPSTREAM ACROSS
AL...MS...AND TN MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NEAR TERM WILL GRADUALLY EXIT TO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND BRING SOME LINGERING PRECIP TO
NORTHERN AND MTN AREAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LEFT BEHIND AND
SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT...DESPITE
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN AND DRIER AIR
ALOFT. SOME PARTIAL CLEAR OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY OCCUR AS DRIER AIR
WORKS IN ALOFT...BUT THIS MAY GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO SOUTHERN WV
MTNS AND POSSIBLY EXTEND INTO THE LOWLAND AREAS BY 12Z...BUT MORE
LIKELY THIS WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
TUESDAY WILL AVERAGE DRY AND WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND WARMER
TEMPS THAN WHAT OCCURRED TODAY...WITH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT SOME IN
THE LOWLANDS...THOUGH AN EXTENSIVE CU FIELD SHOULD DEVELOP. THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS STATES AND MS VALLEY
WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE PERIOD.
MUCH OF THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS WILL OCCUR WEST AND NORTHWEST OF
THE AREA...BUT CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE IN THE
PERIOD FOR RAIN SHOWERS AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPDATED
THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF RUNS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO
WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY ONWARD. THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A LARGE AND VIGOROUS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW CENTERED OVER
NORTHWESTERN INDIANA AS OF 12Z THURSDAY...WHILE THE GFS HAS THE LOW
OVER NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI. THE COMMON THEME HERE IS THE VERY COLD
AIR MASS THAT WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION AFTER THIS SYSTEM
MAKES ITS WAY OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW SETTING UP BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...AND WITH PLENTY
OF MOISTURE IN PLACE...SNOW WILL BEGIN MIXING WITH RAIN SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN EAST OF THE OFFICE. A SERIES OF VORT MAXES WILL ALSO ROTATE
AROUND THE BACK EDGE OF THE LOW...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL UPPER
DYNAMICS AND LIFT TO FUEL THE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW WILL
BE MORE WIDESPREAD FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE COLD AIR TAKES HOLD ACROSS
THE AREA. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND...ALLOWING RAIN AND SHOWERS TO PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS ON TUESDAY.
USED A MODIFIED VERSION OF THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRETY OF THE
EXTENDED. WENT A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MOS FOR HIGHS EACH DAY...AS
WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL ACT TO KEEP TEMPS FROM
CLIMBING TO FORECAST VALUES. STILL ANTICIPATING STRONG GUSTY WINDS
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP ACROSS
THE AREA. THE WINDS LOOK TO BE STRONGEST ON SATURDAY...AS LOW
PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY UP THE COAST. WINDS COULD GUST TO BETWEEN 35
AND 40 KTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NAM AND GFS STRUGGLING WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION.
NAM IS ALREADY WAY OFF BASE AT 03Z. RUC13 APPEARS TO HAVE THE
CLOSEST GRASP OF THE CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SEEMS REASONABLE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. THEREFORE WILL LEAN
HEAVILY ON THE RUC FOR THE CLEARING HOLE THAT IS DEVELOPING OVER THE
REGION. WHERE CLOUDS CLEAR...EXPECT DENSE FOG TO FORM.
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY IN RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...26/MDP/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...RPY
000
FXUS61 KRLX 240056
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
712 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS EXITS NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT AFFECTS THE AREA DURING THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED POPS/WX GRIDS PER LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWING
LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH LINGERING RAIN
OR DRIZZLE COULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THRU 12Z
TUESDAY.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS UPSTREAM ACROSS
AL...MS...AND TN MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NEAR TERM WILL GRADUALLY EXIT TO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND BRING SOME LINGERING PRECIP TO
NORTHERN AND MTN AREAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LEFT BEHIND AND
SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT...DESPITE
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN AND DRIER AIR
ALOFT. SOME PARTIAL CLEAR OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY OCCUR AS DRIER AIR
WORKS IN ALOFT...BUT THIS MAY GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO SOUTHERN WV
MTNS AND POSSIBLY EXTEND INTO THE LOWLAND AREAS BY 12Z...BUT MORE
LIKELY THIS WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
TUESDAY WILL AVERAGE DRY AND WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND WARMER
TEMPS THAN WHAT OCCURRED TODAY...WITH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT SOME IN
THE LOWLANDS...THOUGH AN EXTENSIVE CU FIELD SHOULD DEVELOP. THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS STATES AND MS VALLEY
WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE PERIOD.
MUCH OF THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS WILL OCCUR WEST AND NORTHWEST OF
THE AREA...BUT CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE IN THE
PERIOD FOR RAIN SHOWERS AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPDATED
THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF RUNS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO
WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY ONWARD. THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A LARGE AND VIGOROUS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW CENTERED OVER
NORTHWESTERN INDIANA AS OF 12Z THURSDAY...WHILE THE GFS HAS THE LOW
OVER NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI. THE COMMON THEME HERE IS THE VERY COLD
AIR MASS THAT WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION AFTER THIS SYSTEM
MAKES ITS WAY OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW SETTING UP BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...AND WITH PLENTY
OF MOISTURE IN PLACE...SNOW WILL BEGIN MIXING WITH RAIN SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN EAST OF THE OFFICE. A SERIES OF VORT MAXES WILL ALSO ROTATE
AROUND THE BACK EDGE OF THE LOW...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL UPPER
DYNAMICS AND LIFT TO FUEL THE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW WILL
BE MORE WIDESPREAD FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE COLD AIR TAKES HOLD ACROSS
THE AREA. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND...ALLOWING RAIN AND SHOWERS TO PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS ON TUESDAY.
USED A MODIFIED VERSION OF THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRETY OF THE
EXTENDED. WENT A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MOS FOR HIGHS EACH DAY...AS
WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL ACT TO KEEP TEMPS FROM
CLIMBING TO FORECAST VALUES. STILL ANTICIPATING STRONG GUSTY WINDS
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP ACROSS
THE AREA. THE WINDS LOOK TO BE STRONGEST ON SATURDAY...AS LOW
PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY UP THE COAST. WINDS COULD GUST TO BETWEEN 35
AND 40 KTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF CURRENT CONDITIONS ON LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...CLOUDS...AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS PASSING BY.
HOWEVER...RECENT SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES INDICATED THE LAST BATCH
OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS OUR CWA THRU AT LEAST 04Z...TO
AFFECT MAINLY CRW...CKB...AND EKN AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST. IN
ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS ARE NOTICED UPSTREAM...SOUTHEAST INTO
TN...AL...AND MS. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO MOVE OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT FOR MVFR/IFR CEILINGS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AND WESTERN SLOPES THRU 14Z. THEN...CONDITIONS WILL LIFT TO VFR AT
MOST PLACES...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHEAST SITES WHERE MVFR CEILINGS
WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO VFR AROUND 16Z.
AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY IN RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...26/MDP/JMV
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...ARJ
000
FXUS61 KRLX 232043
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
343 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A
STRONGER FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY ON THANKSGIVING DAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE THANKSGIVING
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IS
KEEPING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY LIGHT RAIN FROM AROUND HTS TO PKB AND
WEST...AND ALSO IN THE MTNS AND HIGH TERRAIN. THIS SHOULD
GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST...THE THREAT FOR
ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOULD GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO AREAS FROM
ABOUT PKB EAST TO CKB AND THEN THE MTNS BY THE END OF PERIOD.
HOWEVER...RECENT TRENDS ACROSS EASTERN KY SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY
LINGER A LITTLE LONGER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NEAR TERM WILL GRADUALLY EXIT TO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND BRING SOME LINGERING PRECIP TO
NORTHERN AND MTN AREAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LEFT BEHIND AND
SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT...DESPITE
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN AND DRIER AIR
ALOFT. SOME PARTIAL CLEAR OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY OCCUR AS DRIER AIR
WORKS IN ALOFT...BUT THIS MAY GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO SOUTHERN WV
MTNS AND POSSIBLY EXTEND INTO THE LOWLAND AREAS BY 12Z...BUT MORE
LIKELY THIS WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
TUESDAY WILL AVERAGE DRY AND WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND WARMER
TEMPS THAN WHAT OCCURRED TODAY...WITH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT SOME IN
THE LOWLANDS...THOUGH AN EXTENSIVE CU FIELD SHOULD DEVELOP. THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS STATES AND MS VALLEY
WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE PERIOD.
MUCH OF THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS WILL OCCUR WEST AND NORTHWEST OF
THE AREA...BUT CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE IN THE
PERIOD FOR RAIN SHOWERS AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...UPDATED
THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF RUNS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO
WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY ONWARD. THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A LARGE AND VIGOROUS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW CENTERED OVER
NORTHWESTERN INDIANA AS OF 12Z THURSDAY...WHILE THE GFS HAS THE LOW
OVER NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI. THE COMMON THEME HERE IS THE VERY COLD
AIR MASS THAT WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION AFTER THIS SYSTEM
MAKES ITS WAY OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW SETTING UP BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...AND WITH PLENTY
OF MOISTURE IN PLACE...SNOW WILL BEGIN MIXING WITH RAIN SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN EAST OF THE OFFICE. A SERIES OF VORT MAXES WILL ALSO ROTATE
AROUND THE BACK EDGE OF THE LOW...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL UPPER
DYNAMICS AND LIFT TO FUEL THE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW WILL
BE MORE WIDESPREAD FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE COLD AIR TAKES HOLD ACROSS
THE AREA. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND...ALLOWING RAIN AND SHOWERS TO PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS ON TUESDAY.
USED A MODIFIED VERSION OF THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRETY OF THE
EXTENDED. WENT A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MOS FOR HIGHS EACH DAY...AS
WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL ACT TO KEEP TEMPS FROM
CLIMBING TO FORECAST VALUES. STILL ANTICIPATING STRONG GUSTY WINDS
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP ACROSS
THE AREA. THE WINDS LOOK TO BE STRONGEST ON SATURDAY...AS LOW
PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY UP THE COAST. WINDS COULD GUST TO BETWEEN 35
AND 40 KTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LIGHT RAIN TO
PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE FIRST 6 HRS AS IT WORKS INTO WV.
HAVE GENERALLY WENT WITH VCSH FOR THIS FOR WESTERN LOCATIONS AND
ALSO BKW BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. DRY AIR CLOSER TO THE SURFACE IS
LIMITING RESTRICTIONS...HOWEVER...WITH JUST MVFR AT WORSE DUE TO
THE PRECIPITATION. THE PRECIP SHOULD EXIT CRW...HTS AND PKB BY
AROUND 0Z... THOUGH IT COULD AFFECT BKW...EKN AND CKB THROUGH AS
LATE AS 6Z...PERHAPS LATER ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WV MTNS AS
THE DISTURBANCE DEPARTS. OVERALL...A STRATUS DECK IS IN PLACE AT
THE PRESENT TIME AND THIS WILL KEEP IFR/MVFR CLOUDS ON THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH VFR ON THE WESTERN SLOPES...AND VFR
OR MVFR IN KENTUCKY AND OHIO THROUGH 0Z. THE STRATUS DECK WILL
ALSO PERSIST TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT MAY THIN IN SOME PLACES AND
LEAD TO PATCHY BR BETWEEN 8Z TO 13Z AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
DRIER AIR BEGIN TO WORK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO BKW AND
POSSIBLY THE HTS AND CRW VICINITY...BUT FARTHER NORTH AT EKN AND
CKW IT MAY TEND BUILDOWN OVERNIGHT.
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...A FEW LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND CU COULD BRING
IFR OR MVFR OVER THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WV MTNS INITIALLY. OTHERWISE...
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR OR POSSIBLY MVFR WITH THE WED COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JP
000
FXUS61 KRLX 231855 AAA
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
155 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A
STRONGER FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY ON THANKSGIVING DAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE THANKSGIVING
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...UPDATED
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IS
KEEPING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY LIGHT RAIN FROM AROUND HTS TO PKB AND
WEST...AND ALSO IN THE MTNS AND HIGH TERRAIN. THIS SHOULD
GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY CLIMB A COUPLE OF MORE DEGREES DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH THE LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE. AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST...THE THREAT FOR ANY
LINGERING RAIN SHOULD GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO AREAS FROM ABOUT
PKB EAST TO CKB AND THEN THE MTNS BY THE END OF PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THAT WILL PRODUCE THE RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE EAST OF REGION BY THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
EARLY TUESDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHILE A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THESE FEATURES WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE WEAK FRONT PUSHES EAST ON WEDNESDAY....WITH ANOTHER STRONGER
FRONT EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...MODELS
INDICATE AN UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY. ALL OF THESE FEATURES WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TUESDAY AS WELL AS LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WERE CLOSE TO PREVIOUS NUMBERS...AND WILL
GENERALLY BE FOLLOWED.
NEW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY CAME IN WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST. IN FACT...THE NEW READINGS WERE AS MUCH AS 10
DEGREES WARMER. FEEL THESE VALUES ARE TOO WARM...BUT TWEAKED HIGHS
UP TOWARD THE NEW GUIDANCE...MORE ON WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIRMASS
SHOULD NOT MOVE IN UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON THURSDAY A SECONDARY UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTH AND MOVE EAST
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...DEEPENING THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...AND SWEEPING A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. THIS
WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
MODELS SOUNDINGS AND 1000-500MB THICKNESSES SUGGEST SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...NORTHERN
WV...AND SE OHIO...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER MUCH OF THE WEST
VIRGINIA LOWLANDS. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER...STRONG NW WINDS
ALOFT WILL KEEP UPSLOPE SHOWERS GOING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY. MODELS INDICATING
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...UPDATED
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LIGHT RAIN TO
PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE FIRST 6 HRS AS IT WORKS INTO WV.
HAVE GENERALLY WENT WITH VCSH FOR THIS FOR WESTERN LOCATIONS AND
ALSO BKW BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. DRY AIR CLOSER TO THE SURFACE IS
LIMITING RESTRICTIONS...HOWEVER...WITH JUST MVFR AT WORSE DUE TO
THE PRECIPITATION. THE PRECIP SHOULD EXIT CRW...HTS AND PKB BY
AROUND 0Z... THOUGH IT COULD AFFECT BKW...EKN AND CKB THROUGH AS
LATE AS 6Z...PERHAPS LATER ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WV MTNS AS
THE DISTURBANCE DEPARTS. OVERALL...A STRATUS DECK IS IN PLACE AT
THE PRESENT TIME AND THIS WILL KEEP IFR/MVFR CLOUDS ON THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH VFR ON THE WESTERN SLOPES...AND VFR
OR MVFR IN KENTUCKY AND OHIO THROUGH 0Z. THE STRATUS DECK WILL
ALSO PERSIST TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT MAY THIN IN SOME PLACES AND
LEAD TO PATCHY BR BETWEEN 8Z TO 13Z AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
DRIER AIR BEGIN TO WORK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO BKW AND
POSSIBLY THE HTS AND CRW VICINITY...BUT FARTHER NORTH AT EKN AND
CKW IT MAY TEND BUILDOWN OVERNIGHT.
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...A FEW LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND CU COULD BRING
IFR OR MVFR OVER THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WV MTNS INITIALLY. OTHERWISE...
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR OR POSSIBLY MVFR WITH THE WED COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/SL/RPY
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...RPY
000
FXUS61 KRLX 231023
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
522 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS TRAVERSE THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY...WITH A STRONGER FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. VORTICITY LOBE
CREATING A BAND OF PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING. TRIED TIMING
THIS FEATURE NORTHWARD...WHICH IS A BIT FASTER THAN MODELS INDICATE.
ANOTHER VORTICITY LOBE MOVES OVER THIS EVENING...SO TIMED POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE AS WELL. BOTH MODELS SHOW A DECENT STRATUS DECK
TONIGHT...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE LOOKING AT THE SOUTHEAST US
CURRENTLY. THEREFORE WENT WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THAT WILL PRODUCE THE RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE EAST OF REGION BY THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
EARLY TUESDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHILE A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THESE FEATURES WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE WEAK FRONT PUSHES EAST ON WEDNESDAY....WITH ANOTHER STRONGER
FRONT EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...MODELS
INDICATE AN UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY. ALL OF THESE FEATURES WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TUESDAY AS WELL AS LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WERE CLOSE TO PREVIOUS NUMBERS...AND WILL
GENERALLY BE FOLLOWED.
NEW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY CAME IN WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST. IN FACT...THE NEW READINGS WERE AS MUCH AS 10
DEGREES WARMER. FEEL THESE VALUES ARE TOO WARM...BUT TWEAKED HIGHS
UP TOWARD THE NEW GUIDANCE...MORE ON WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIRMASS
SHOULD NOT MOVE IN UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON THURSDAY A SECONDARY UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTH AND MOVE EAST
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...DEEPENING THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...AND SWEEPING A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. THIS
WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
MODELS SOUNDINGS AND 1000-500MB THICKNESSES SUGGEST SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...NORTHERN
WV...AND SE OHIO...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER MUCH OF THE WEST
VIRGINIA LOWLANDS. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER...STRONG NW WINDS
ALOFT WILL KEEP UPSLOPE SHOWERS GOING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY. MODELS INDICATING
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VORTICITY LOBE MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION PRODUCING A BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN. DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE IS LIMITING RESTRICTIONS
HOWEVER...WITH JUST MVFR AT WORSE DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION. SOME
LOWER CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE...A STRATUS DECK
WILL BE FORMING. THIS WILL KEEP IFR/MVFR CLOUDS ON THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH VFR ON THE WESTERN SLOPES...AND VFR
OR MVFR IN KENTUCKY AND OHIO TODAY. THE STRATUS DECK WILL ALSO
PERSIST TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER BAND OF PRECIPITATION COULD CAUSE
SOME RESTRICTIONS.
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE WV
MOUNTAINS TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO LOW CLOUDS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/SL/RPY
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...RPY
000
FXUS61 KRLX 230722
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
222 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS TRAVERSE THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY...WITH A STRONGER FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. VORTICITY LOBE
CREATING A BAND OF PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING. TRIED TIMING
THIS FEATURE NORTHWARD...WHICH IS A BIT FASTER THAN MODELS INDICATE.
ANOTHER VORTICITY LOBE MOVES OVER THIS EVENING...SO TIMED POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE AS WELL. BOTH MODELS SHOW A DECENT STRATUS DECK
TONIGHT...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE LOOKING AT THE SOUTHEAST US
CURRENTLY. THEREFORE WENT WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THAT WILL PRODUCE THE RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE EAST OF REGION BY THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
EARLY TUESDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHILE A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THESE FEATURES WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE WEAK FRONT PUSHES EAST ON WEDNESDAY....WITH ANOTHER STRONGER
FRONT EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...MODELS
INDICATE AN UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY. ALL OF THESE FEATURES WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TUESDAY AS WELL AS LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WERE CLOSE TO PREVIOUS NUMBERS...AND WILL
GENERALLY BE FOLLOWED.
NEW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY CAME IN WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST. IN FACT...THE NEW READINGS WERE AS MUCH AS 10
DEGREES WARMER. FEEL THESE VALUES ARE TOO WARM...BUT TWEAKED HIGHS
UP TOWARD THE NEW GUIDANCE...MORE ON WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIRMASS
SHOULD NOT MOVE IN UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON THURSDAY A SECONDARY UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTH AND MOVE EAST
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...DEEPENING THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...AND SWEEPING A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. THIS
WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
MODELS SOUNDINGS AND 1000-500MB THICKNESSES SUGGEST SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...NORTHERN
WV...AND SE OHIO...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER MUCH OF THE WEST
VIRGINIA LOWLANDS. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER...STRONG NW WINDS
ALOFT WILL KEEP UPSLOPE SHOWERS GOING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY. MODELS INDICATING
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VORTICITY LOBE MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION PRODUCING A BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN. DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE IS LIMITING RESTRICTIONS
HOWEVER...WITH JUST MVFR AT WORSE DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION. SOME
LOWER CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE...A STRATUS DECK
WILL BE FORMING. THIS WILL KEEP IFR/MVFR CLOUDS ON THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH VFR ON THE WESTERN SLOPES...AND VFR
OR MVFR IN KENTUCKY AND OHIO TODAY. THESE CLOUD CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
PERSIST INTO TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER BAND OF PRECIPITATION COULD
CAUSE SOME RESTRICTIONS.
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE WV
MOUNTAINS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO LOW CLOUDS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/SL/RPY
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...RPY
000
FXUS61 KRLX 230712
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
215 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS TRAVERSE THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
TO AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. VORTICITY LOBE
CREATING A BAND OF PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING. TRIED TIMING
THIS FEATURE NORTHWARD...WHICH IS A BIT FASTER THAN MODELS INDICATE.
ANOTHER VORTICITY LOBE MOVES OVER THIS EVENING...SO TIMED POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE AS WELL. BOTH MODELS SHOW A DECENT STRATUS DECK
TONIGHT...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE LOOKING AT THE SOUTHEAST US
CURRENTLY. THEREFORE WENT WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
12Z MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH WEAK H5 VORT MAX REACHING THE AREA
BY TUE 00Z...UNDER A DESCENT MOISTURE LAYER UP TO H7. THEREFORE...BY
00Z TUE...BULK OF PCPN PROBABLY MOVING NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT.
ADJUSTED DOWN POPS ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH AS THE PCPN MOVES
NORTHEAST MON NIGHT. WITH LESS FORCING AND MOISTURE BECOMES SHALLOW
UP TO H8 BY TUE EVENING...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN THIRD AND NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS UNDER NORTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT.
BY WED...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE OVER MI. MODELS SOLUTIONS
SEEMS SPLIT ON THE WED 12Z LOWS CENTER WITH THE NAM/ECMWF BEEN A BIT
WEST WHEN COMPARED WITH THE GFS/GEM POSITIONS. HOWEVER...THE GEM AND
GFS SUGGEST A STRONG SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO
WV BY THE SAME TIME. THIS FEATURE COULD BE PUSHING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHER CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS. ATTM...WITH
VERY LOW BUOYANCY IF ANY...AND PW UNDER ONE INCH...KEPT THUNDER OUT
FOR WED.
ALMOST IDENTICAL BIAS CORRECTED SOLUTIONS FROM THE SREF AND GMOS FOR
LOW TEMPERATURES WERE NOTICED TUE AND WED MORNING...WHICH RESULTED
INTO A BLEND FORECAST...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO LOWER 40S. MINOR
CHANGES MADE TO HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY AROUND 60 DEGREES ON TUE...AND
FEW DEGREES COOLER ON WED AS H5 TEMPS DROP 3-4 DEGREES ACCORDING TO
THE SREF.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON THURSDAY A SECONDARY UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTH AND MOVE EAST
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...DEEPENING THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...AND SWEEPING A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. THIS
WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
MODELS SOUNDINGS AND 1000-500MB THICKNESSES SUGGEST SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...NORTHERN
WV...AND SE OHIO...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER MUCH OF THE WEST
VIRGINIA LOWLANDS. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER...STRONG NW WINDS
ALOFT WILL KEEP UPSLOPE SHOWERS GOING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY. MODELS INDICATING
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VORTICITY LOBE MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION PRODUCING A BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN. DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE IS LIMITING RESTRICTIONS
HOWEVER...WITH JUST MVFR AT WORSE DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION. SOME
LOWER CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE...A STRATUS DECK
WILL BE FORMING. THIS WILL KEEP IFR/MVFR CLOUDS ON THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH VFR ON THE WESTERN SLOPES...AND VFR
OR MVFR IN KENTUCKY AND OHIO TODAY. THESE CLOUD CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
PERSIST INTO TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER BAND OF PRECIPITATION COULD
CAUSE SOME RESTRICTIONS.
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE WV
MOUNTAINS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO LOW CLOUDS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/SL/RPY
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...RPY
000
FXUS61 KRLX 230533
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1222 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS TRAVERSE THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW TO AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
JUST AS PATCHY LOW CLOUDS UP N ARE EXODUS...HIGH CLOUDS WERE
ARRIVING FROM THE S IN RESPONSE TO S/W FEATURE OVER THE TN VALLEY.
NAM AND ECMWF BEAT GFS AND UKMET ON EVOLUTION OF THIS
FEATURE...WHICH WILL TAKE MOST OF ITS DYNAMICS S AND E OF THE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH MON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATER
TONIGHT AND MON IS UPSLOPE SE FLOW COMBINED WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND
FORCING.
FARTHER W...FLOW IS DOWNSLOPING AND FORCING IS MUCH LESS EVEN THOUGH
THE COLUMN IS ALMOST AS SATURATED. SREF STILL SUPPORTS SOMEWHAT
HIGHER CHANCE FOR RAIN IN OHIO IN RESPONSE TO WESTERN VORT LOBE
ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED S/W FEATURE.
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS THIS PACKAGE IN GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSING GULF AND THEN SE COASTS. THIS
SET UP WEAKENS LATE MON AS NEW ENGLAND HIGH IS EXODUS AND LOW IS E
OF THE AREA OFF MIDDLE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.
NO IMPORTANT DEVIATIONS FROM MOS ANTICIPATED ON LOWS TONIGHT NOR
HIGHS MON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
12Z MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH WEAK H5 VORT MAX REACHING THE AREA
BY TUE 00Z...UNDER A DESCENT MOISTURE LAYER UP TO H7. THEREFORE...BY
00Z TUE...BULK OF PCPN PROBABLY MOVING NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT.
ADJUSTED DOWN POPS ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH AS THE PCPN MOVES
NORTHEAST MON NIGHT. WITH LESS FORCING AND MOISTURE BECOMES SHALLOW
UP TO H8 BY TUE EVENING...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN THIRD AND NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS UNDER NORTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT.
BY WED...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE OVER MI. MODELS SOLUTIONS
SEEMS SPLIT ON THE WED 12Z LOWS CENTER WITH THE NAM/ECMWF BEEN A BIT
WEST WHEN COMPARED WITH THE GFS/GEM POSITIONS. HOWEVER...THE GEM AND
GFS SUGGEST A STRONG SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO
WV BY THE SAME TIME. THIS FEATURE COULD BE PUSHING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHER CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS. ATTM...WITH
VERY LOW BUOYANCY IF ANY...AND PW UNDER ONE INCH...KEPT THUNDER OUT
FOR WED.
ALMOST IDENTICAL BIAS CORRECTED SOLUTIONS FROM THE SREF AND GMOS FOR
LOW TEMPERATURES WERE NOTICED TUE AND WED MORNING...WHICH RESULTED
INTO A BLEND FORECAST...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO LOWER 40S. MINOR
CHANGES MADE TO HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY AROUND 60 DEGREES ON TUE...AND
FEW DEGREES COOLER ON WED AS H5 TEMPS DROP 3-4 DEGREES ACCORDING TO
THE SREF.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON THURSDAY A SECONDARY UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTH AND MOVE EAST
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...DEEPENING THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...AND SWEEPING A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. THIS
WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
MODELS SOUNDINGS AND 1000-500MB THICKNESSES SUGGEST SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...NORTHERN
WV...AND SE OHIO...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER MUCH OF THE WEST
VIRGINIA LOWLANDS. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER...STRONG NW WINDS
ALOFT WILL KEEP UPSLOPE SHOWERS GOING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY. MODELS INDICATING
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VORTICITY LOBE MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION PRODUCING A BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN. DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE IS LIMITING RESTRICTIONS
HOWEVER...WITH JUST MVFR AT WORSE DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION. SOME
LOWER CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE...A STRATUS DECK
WILL BE FORMING. THIS WILL KEEP IFR/MVFR CLOUDS ON THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH VFR ON THE WESTERN SLOPES...AND VFR
OR MVFR IN KENTUCKY AND OHIO TODAY. THESE CLOUD CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
PERSIST INTO TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER BAND OF PRECIPITATION COULD
CAUSE SOME RESTRICTIONS.
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE WV
MOUNTAINS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO LOW CLOUDS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...RPY
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