[top]
000
FXUS61 KRLX 082323
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
615 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE INCREASES
TUESDAY FROM LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND FROM FRONT TO THE WEST.
COLDER AIR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
BENIGN FCST PER HIGH PRESSURE. LIGHTER WINDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DEW POINTS THIS AFTN AND MON COMPARED WITH SAT HAS LESSENED THE FIRE
THREAT.
WITH THE LIGHTER FLOW AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE ABOVE THE SFC...UPSLOPE
STRATOCU OF EARLY THIS MORNING WILL NOT BE REPEATED TONIGHT. HIGH
CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN MON AS UPPER RIDGE EXITS STAGE
E...GIVING WAY TO S FLOW.
LOWERED LOWS TONIGHT TO REFLECT LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH LITTLE
OR NO WIND GIVEN HIGH CLOUDS HOLD OFF MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HIGHS MON
WERE ON HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE BUT STILL LOWER THAN HIGHS TODAY.
OUTCOME WILL BE A FUNCTION OF HIGH THICK THE HIGH CLOUDS GET AND HOW
QUICKLY...GIVEN THE LOWER SUN ANGLE OF THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BATTLE OF THE MODELS WITH THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE AND PHASING OF
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS CONTINUE THIS PERIOD. FOR OUR
AREA...HPC CONSENSUS IS TO MAINTAIN THE MORE PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN
STREAM SCENARIO...AND MAINTAIN SEPARATION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM...UNTIL THEY FINALLY PHASE ALONG THE
MIDATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. LOOKS LIKE THIS SOLUTION IS
CLOSEST TO THE ECMWF. THIS ACCEPTED SCENARIO PUTS OUR AREA IN A
TIGHT GRADIENT FOR POPS...AND ENDS PRECIP EARLIER (ECMWF) THAN SOME
OF THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS (GFS AND GEM) INDICATE. LOOKS LIKE
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA MAY GET VERY LITTLE IF ANY...WHILE
THE FAR SOUTHEAST MAY SEE A GOOD SLUG OF RAIN. THUS...HAVE RAISED
POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST AND LOWERED POPS IN THE NORTHWEST. THE BULK OF
THE PRECIP WILL BE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. DECIDED TO GO WITH LOW
POPS FAR EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING GIVEN THE POTENTIAL WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE OF THE SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
MAX TEMPS THIS PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT HIGHER IN THE
NORTHWEST THAN THE SOUTH DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP. IN ANY
EVENT...TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WHILE WEDNESDAY WILL
SETTLE BACK DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL AS THE FLOW TURNS NORTHERLY WITH
COLD ADVECTION. GOING FOR PRECIP TO END AS RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THE COLDER AIR WORKS
IN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE HANDLING OF THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE IDA. 12Z NAM APPEARS TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS A DRIER
SOLUTION FOR THURSDAY...AS IT INDICATES THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE SE U.S....AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH OF THE REGION. 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE IDA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS
WEEK...WITH PRECIPITATION CONTINUING TO WRAP AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY. 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF ALSO
INDICATED THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WOULD MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE
REGION...BUT WOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...12Z RUN OF
THE ECMWF NOW SEEMS TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE 12Z NAM...TRENDING
TOWARDS A DRIER SOLUTION ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
REMAINS OVER THE SE U.S....BEFORE SLIDING OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
LATE WED. FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARDS THAT OF
HPC...ECMWF...AND NAM...WHICH KEEPS THE FORECAST REGION DRY FOR
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN TAKES CONTROL FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARM UP IN
TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN
THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT OR CALM WIND. ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE POSSIBLE PERIOD OF MVFR LIGHT FOG IN THE SHELTERED MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS 06Z-12Z INCLUDING EKN.
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL/JMV
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MDP
000
FXUS61 KRLX 081942
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
213 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE INCREASES
TUESDAY FROM LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND FROM FRONT TO THE WEST.
COLDER AIR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
BENIGN FCST PER HIGH PRESSURE. LIGHTER WINDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DEW POINTS THIS AFTN AND MON COMPARED WITH SAT HAS LESSENED THE FIRE
THREAT.
WITH THE LIGHTER FLOW AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE ABOVE THE SFC...UPSLOPE
STRATOCU OF EARLY THIS MORNING WILL NOT BE REPEATED TONIGHT. HIGH
CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN MON AS UPPER RIDGE EXITS STAGE
E...GIVING WAY TO S FLOW.
LOWERED LOWS TONIGHT TO REFLECT LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH LITTLE
OR NO WIND GIVEN HIGH CLOUDS HOLD OFF MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HIGHS MON
WERE ON HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE BUT STILL LOWER THAN HIGHS TODAY.
OUTCOME WILL BE A FUNCTION OF HIGH THICK THE HIGH CLOUDS GET AND HOW
QUICKLY...GIVEN THE LOWER SUN ANGLE OF THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BATTLE OF THE MODELS WITH THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE AND PHASING OF
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS CONTINUE THIS PERIOD. FOR OUR
AREA...HPC CONSENSUS IS TO MAINTAIN THE MORE PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN
STREAM SCENARIO...AND MAINTAIN SEPARATION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM...UNTIL THEY FINALLY PHASE ALONG THE
MIDATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. LOOKS LIKE THIS SOLUTION IS
CLOSEST TO THE ECMWF. THIS ACCEPTED SCENARIO PUTS OUR AREA IN A TIGHT
GRADIENT FOR POPS...AND ENDS PRECIP EARLIER (ECMWF) THAN SOME OF THE
OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS (GFS AND GEM) INDICATE. LOOKS LIKE THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA MAY GET VERY LITTLE IF ANY...WHILE THE
FAR SOUTHEAST MAY SEE A GOOD SLUG OF RAIN. THUS...HAVE RAISED POPS
IN THE SOUTHEAST AND LOWERED POPS IN THE NORTHWEST. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP WILL BE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. DECIDED TO GO WITH LOW
POPS FAR EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING GIVEN THE POTENTIAL WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE OF THE SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
MAX TEMPS THIS PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT HIGHER IN THE
NORTHWEST THAN THE SOUTH DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP. IN ANY
EVENT...TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WHILE WEDNESDAY WILL
SETTLE BACK DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL AS THE FLOW TURNS NORTHERLY WITH
COLD ADVECTION. GOING FOR PRECIP TO END AS RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THE COLDER AIR WORKS
IN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE HANDLING OF THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE IDA. 12Z NAM APPEARS TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS A DRIER
SOLUTION FOR THURSDAY...AS IT INDICATES THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE SE U.S....AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH OF THE REGION. 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE IDA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS
WEEK...WITH PRECIPITATION CONTINUING TO WRAP AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY. 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF ALSO
INDICATED THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WOULD MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE
REGION...BUT WOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...12Z RUN OF
THE ECMWF NOW SEEMS TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE 12Z NAM...TRENDING
TOWARDS A DRIER SOLUTION ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
REMAINS OVER THE SE U.S....BEFORE SLIDING OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
LATE WED. FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARDS THAT OF
HPC...ECMWF...AND NAM...WHICH KEEPS THE FORECAST REGION DRY FOR
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN TAKES CONTROL FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARM UP IN
TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN
THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FCST GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE. WITH LIGHT FLOW AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DEW POINTS...MVFR LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE MTN VALLEYS TONIGHT
INCLUDING EKN. FLOW WILL BE LIGHT SW SFC AND ALOFT.
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL/JMV
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM
000
FXUS61 KRLX 081746
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1247 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE INCREASES
TUESDAY FROM LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND FROM FRONT TO THE WEST.
COLDER AIR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
BENIGN FCST PER HIGH PRESSURE. LIGHTER WINDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DEW POINTS THIS AFTN AND MON COMPARED WITH SAT HAS LESSENED THE FIRE
THREAT.
WITH THE LIGHTER FLOW AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE ABOVE THE SFC...UPSLOPE
STRATOCU OF EARLY THIS MORNING WILL NOT BE REPEATED TONIGHT. HIGH
CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN MON AS UPPER RIDGE EXITS STAGE
E...GIVING WAY TO S FLOW.
LOWERED LOWS TONIGHT TO REFLECT LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH LITTLE
OR NO WIND GIVEN HIGH CLOUDS HOLD OFF MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HIGHS MON
WERE ON HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE BUT STILL LOWER THAN HIGHS TODAY.
OUTCOME WILL BE A FUNCTION OF HIGH THICK THE HIGH CLOUDS GET AND HOW
QUICKLY...GIVEN THE LOWER SUN ANGLE OF THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOST 00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE MORE MOISTURE FROM EXTRATROPICAL REMAINS OF
IDA FURTHER N...INTO FOR OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT DELAYED UNTIL
LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z NAM DID NOT JOIN THE
GROUP...KEEPING DEEPER MOISTURE TO OUR SE. HOWEVER...IT WAS THE
SLOWEST IN DRYING OUT THE LOW LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. DELAYED THE WIND
SHIFT TO N UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT...AS THE FRONT GETS ABSORBED INTO THE
OVERALL CIRCULATION. SO INCREASED THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT. BUT THE COLDER AIR SHOULD BE COMING IN FROM THE N BY
12Z WEDNESDAY. ACTUALLY DECREASED SOME MAXIMUM READINGS FOR
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...FIGURING 850 MB TEMPS
NEAR ZERO FOR A BRIEF TIME THEN.
WITH THE RIGHT REAR OF A 250 MB/UPPER JET ALSO HELPING IN
LIFT...INCREASED POPS FOR OUR S AND SE COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...DELAYING THE CLEARING UNTIL WEDNESDAY. KEPT
POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY IN OUR SE COUNTIES. HAVE PLENTY OF
TIME TO MONITOR TRENDS...TO INCREASE POPS HIGHER...IF NEED BE.
BACK TO MONDAY...WAS GUN SHY TO GO MUCH ABOVE MOS TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE...THINKING CIRRUS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH. WITH
THE LOW SUN ANGLE...EVEN CIRRUS CAN BE A FACTOR.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WITH DRY WEATHER AND FEW CLOUDS. FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING SOME MORE CLOUDS TO THE
AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.
FEEL MEX NUMBERS ARE GENERALLY TOO WARM...SO HAVE GONE WITH HPC
NUMBERS WITH SOME TWEAKS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FCST GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE. WITH LIGHT FLOW AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DEW POINTS...MVFR LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE MTN VALLEYS TONIGHT
INCLUDING EKN. FLOW WILL BE LIGHT SW SFC AND ALOFT.
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/KTB
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...TRM
000
FXUS61 KRLX 081040
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
540 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL INTO MONDAY. MOISTURE INCREASES
TUESDAY FROM LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND FROM FRONT TO THE WEST.
COLDER AIR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
BEAUTIFUL RUN OF FALL WEATHER CONTINUES. STRATOCU DID MANAGE TO FORM
DOWN THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE NORTHEAST CWA THIS MORNING. MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT IN MAXING OUT THE H850 MOISTURE AT 09Z AND THEN
DRYING IT UP...SO PLAYED SKY GRIDS TO THAT THINKING. EXPECTING
SCATTERED CLOUDS REMAINING AT BEST BY SUNRISE.
ONCE THOSE CLOUDS GO AWAY...NO OTHERS WILL TAKE THEIR PLACE TODAY AS
COLUMN REMAINS QUITE DRY. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS A BIT LESS TODAY.
WHILE MIN RH VALUES STILL DIP INTO THE 25-30 PERCENT RANGE...WINDS
WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY.
WITH H500 RIDGE AXIS MOVING THROUGH AROUND 00Z TONIGHT...COULD SEE
SOME CIRRUS TRY TO STREAK IN LATE TONIGHT.
GOT BURNED GOING CLOSER TO MAV NUMBERS FOR HIGHS YESTERDAY. WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN H850 TEMPS TODAY...WENT WITH HIGHS A TOUCH ABOVE
THOSE OF YESTERDAY...WHICH IS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS...OR EVEN
ABOVE. WENT WITH MORE OF A BLEND TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOST 00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE MORE MOISTURE FROM EXTRATROPICAL REMAINS OF
IDA FURTHER N...INTO FOR OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT DELAYED UNTIL
LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z NAM DID NOT JOIN THE
GROUP...KEEPING DEEPER MOISTURE TO OUR SE. HOWEVER...IT WAS THE
SLOWEST IN DRYING OUT THE LOW LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. DELAYED THE WIND
SHIFT TO N UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT...AS THE FRONT GETS ABSORBED INTO THE
OVERALL CIRCULATION. SO INCREASED THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT. BUT THE COLDER AIR SHOULD BE COMING IN FROM THE N BY
12Z WEDNESDAY. ACTUALLY DECREASED SOME MAXIMUM READINGS FOR
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...FIGURING 850 MB TEMPS
NEAR ZERO FOR A BRIEF TIME THEN.
WITH THE RIGHT REAR OF A 250 MB/UPPER JET ALSO HELPING IN
LIFT...INCREASED POPS FOR OUR S AND SE COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...DELAYING THE CLEARING UNTIL WEDNESDAY. KEPT
POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY IN OUR SE COUNTIES. HAVE PLENTY OF
TIME TO MONITOR TRENDS...TO INCREASE POPS HIGHER...IF NEED BE.
BACK TO MONDAY...WAS GUN SHY TO GO MUCH ABOVE MOS TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE...THINKING CIRRUS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH. WITH
THE LOW SUN ANGLE...EVEN CIRRUS CAN BE A FACTOR.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WITH DRY WEATHER AND FEW CLOUDS. FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING SOME MORE CLOUDS TO THE
AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.
FEEL MEX NUMBERS ARE GENERALLY TOO WARM...SO HAVE GONE WITH HPC
NUMBERS WITH SOME TWEAKS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
REMAINING STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA WILL DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AFTER THAT...P6SM SKC WITH LIGHT
WINDS AREAWIDE. AS UPPER RIDGE SLIDES TO THE EAST TONIGHT...SOME
CIRRUS MAY MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT VFR CONTINUES.
AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/CL
NEAR TERM...CL
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...CL
000
FXUS61 KRLX 080921
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
400 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL INTO MONDAY. MOISTURE INCREASES
TUESDAY FROM LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND FROM FRONT TO THE WEST.
COLDER AIR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
BEAUTIFUL RUN OF FALL WEATHER CONTINUES. STRATOCU DID MANAGE TO FORM
DOWN THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE NORTHEAST CWA THIS MORNING. MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT IN MAXING OUT THE H850 MOISTURE AT 09Z AND THEN
DRYING IT UP...SO PLAYED SKY GRIDS TO THAT THINKING. EXPECTING
SCATTERED CLOUDS REMAINING AT BEST BY SUNRISE.
ONCE THOSE CLOUDS GO AWAY...NO OTHERS WILL TAKE THEIR PLACE TODAY AS
COLUMN REMAINS QUITE DRY. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS A BIT LESS TODAY.
WHILE MIN RH VALUES STILL DIP INTO THE 25-30 PERCENT RANGE...WINDS
WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY.
WITH H500 RIDGE AXIS MOVING THROUGH AROUND 00Z TONIGHT...COULD SEE
SOME CIRRUS TRY TO STREAK IN LATE TONIGHT.
GOT BURNED GOING CLOSER TO MAV NUMBERS FOR HIGHS YESTERDAY. WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN H850 TEMPS TODAY...WENT WITH HIGHS A TOUCH ABOVE
THOSE OF YESTERDAY...WHICH IS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS...OR EVEN
ABOVE. WENT WITH MORE OF A BLEND TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOST 00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE MORE MOISTURE FROM EXTRATROPICAL REMAINS OF
IDA FURTHER N...INTO FOR OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT DELAYED UNTIL
LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z NAM DID NOT JOIN THE
GROUP...KEEPING DEEPER MOISTURE TO OUR SE. HOWEVER...IT WAS THE
SLOWEST IN DRYING OUT THE LOW LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. DELAYED THE WIND
SHIFT TO N UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT...AS THE FRONT GETS ABSORBED INTO THE
OVERALL CIRCULATION. SO INCREASED THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT. BUT THE COLDER AIR SHOULD BE COMING IN FROM THE N BY
12Z WEDNESDAY. ACTUALLY DECREASED SOME MAXIMUM READINGS FOR
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...FIGURING 850 MB TEMPS
NEAR ZERO FOR A BRIEF TIME THEN.
WITH THE RIGHT REAR OF A 250 MB/UPPER JET ALSO HELPING IN
LIFT...INCREASED POPS FOR OUR S AND SE COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...DELAYING THE CLEARING UNTIL WEDNESDAY. KEPT
POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY IN OUR SE COUNTIES. HAVE PLENTY OF
TIME TO MONITOR TRENDS...TO INCREASE POPS HIGHER...IF NEED BE.
BACK TO MONDAY...WAS GUN SHY TO GO MUCH ABOVE MOS TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE...THINKING CIRRUS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH. WITH
THE LOW SUN ANGLE...EVEN CIRRUS CAN BE A FACTOR.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WITH DRY WEATHER AND FEW CLOUDS. FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING SOME MORE CLOUDS TO THE
AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.
FEEL MEX NUMBERS ARE GENERALLY TOO WARM...SO HAVE GONE WITH HPC
NUMBERS WITH SOME TWEAKS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT SSW WINDS THROUGH 00Z
MONDAY.
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AAR/JS/JMV/RPY
NEAR TERM...AAR
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...CL
000
FXUS61 KRLX 080540
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1240 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL INTO MONDAY. FRONT ARRIVES TUESDAY
WITH NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN. COOLER AIR IN ITS WAKE FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LITTLE TO TALK ABOUT AS HIGH PRESSURE IS THE RULE THROUGH SUNDAY.
PREVIOUS RUNS OF NAM AND GFS HAD 850 MOISTURE OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF FORECAST AREA BUT NEW RUN OF GFS CUTS WAY BACK ON MOISTURE SO
HAVE CUT BACK ON CLOUDS OVER NIGHT. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
FORECAST. SUNDAY FIRE CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVED WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER DEW POINTS AND NO WIND ISSUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SEPARATION BETWEEN THE GULF OF MEXICO
SYSTEM DRIFTING NORTHWARD...AND THE INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE UNITED STATES. EVEN THE STUBBORN OUTLIER CANADIAN
MODEL SUGGESTS A BIT MORE SEPARATION THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. EXPECT THE
GULF OF MEXICO SYSTEM AND ITS DEEP MOISTURE TO STAY SOUTH OF OUR
REGION. MOST OF THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND ITS LIMITED MOISTURE
WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL GO MAINLY NORTH OF OUR AREA.
THUS...MAJORITY OF MODELS STRONGLY TRENDING TOWARD OUR AREA BEING IN
BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
HAVE OPTED TO GO ON THE LOWER SIDE OF POPS AND MINIMIZE QPF.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE 70S MONDAY UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE LIGHT PRECIP HOLDING OFF
TIL TUESDAY. TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE HELD DOWN DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
FRONT PUSHES THRU TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING SHOWERS EXITING BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WITH DRY WEATHER AND FEW CLOUDS. FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING SOME MORE CLOUDS TO THE
AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.
FEEL MEX NUMBERS ARE GENERALLY TOO WARM...SO HAVE GONE WITH HPC
NUMBERS WITH SOME TWEAKS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FEW STRATOCUMULUS ARE FORMING ALONG THE MOUNTAINS...AND WILL
AFFECT EKN...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT CKB THROUGH SUNRISE. THINK CIGS
WILL REMAIN VFR BUT RANGE FROM 3500-4000 FEET. 25-30 KNOT WINDS JUST
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MEAN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONCERNS. THIS
SHOULD LESSEN BY 10Z OR SO.
MOISTURE DRIES UP BY SUNRISE...WITH SKC AREAWIDE FOR THE BALANCE OF
THE DAY...ALONG WITH LIGHT S/SW WINDS.
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AAR/JS/JMV/RPY
NEAR TERM...AAR
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...CL
000
FXUS61 KRLX 072328
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
628 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL INTO MONDAY. FRONT ARRIVES TUESDAY
WITH NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN. COOLER AIR IN ITS WAKE FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LITTLE TO TALK ABOUT AS HIGH PRESSURE IS THE RULE THROUGH SUNDAY.
PREVIOUS RUNS OF NAM AND GFS HAD 850 MOISTURE OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF FORECAST AREA BUT NEW RUN OF GFS CUTS WAY BACK ON MOISTURE SO
HAVE CUT BACK ON CLOUDS OVER NIGHT. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
FORECAST. SUNDAY FIRE CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVED WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER DEW POINTS AND NO WIND ISSUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SEPARATION BETWEEN THE GULF OF MEXICO
SYSTEM DRIFTING NORTHWARD...AND THE INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE UNITED STATES. EVEN THE STUBBORN OUTLIER CANADIAN
MODEL SUGGESTS A BIT MORE SEPARATION THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. EXPECT THE
GULF OF MEXICO SYSTEM AND ITS DEEP MOISTURE TO STAY SOUTH OF OUR
REGION. MOST OF THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND ITS LIMITED MOISTURE
WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL GO MAINLY NORTH OF OUR AREA.
THUS...MAJORITY OF MODELS STRONGLY TRENDING TOWARD OUR AREA BEING IN
BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
HAVE OPTED TO GO ON THE LOWER SIDE OF POPS AND MINIMIZE QPF.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE 70S MONDAY UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE LIGHT PRECIP HOLDING OFF
TIL TUESDAY. TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE HELD DOWN DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
FRONT PUSHES THRU TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING SHOWERS EXITING BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WITH DRY WEATHER AND FEW CLOUDS. FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING SOME MORE CLOUDS TO THE
AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.
FEEL MEX NUMBERS ARE GENERALLY TOO WARM...SO HAVE GONE WITH HPC
NUMBERS WITH SOME TWEAKS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT SSW WINDS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY.
AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AAR/JS/JMV/RPY
NEAR TERM...AAR
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...JS
000
FXUS61 KRLX 071942
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
222 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL INTO MONDAY. FRONT ARRIVES TUESDAY
WITH NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN. COOLER AIR IN ITS WAKE FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LITTLE TO TALK ABOUT AS HIGH PRESSURE IS THE RULE THROUGH SUNDAY.
PREVIOUS RUNS OF NAM AND GFS HAD 850 MOISTURE OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF FORECAST AREA BUT NEW RUN OF GFS CUTS WAY BACK ON MOISTURE SO
HAVE CUT BACK ON CLOUDS OVER NIGHT. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
FORECAST. SUNDAY FIRE CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVED WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER DEW POINTS AND NO WIND ISSUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SEPARATION BETWEEN THE GULF OF MEXICO
SYSTEM DRIFTING NORTHWARD...AND THE INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE UNITED STATES. EVEN THE STUBBORN OUTLIER CANADIAN
MODEL SUGGESTS A BIT MORE SEPARATION THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. EXPECT THE
GULF OF MEXICO SYSTEM AND ITS DEEP MOISTURE TO STAY SOUTH OF OUR
REGION. MOST OF THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND ITS LIMITED MOISTURE
WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL GO MAINLY NORTH OF OUR AREA.
THUS...MAJORITY OF MODELS STRONGLY TRENDING TOWARD OUR AREA BEING IN
BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
HAVE OPTED TO GO ON THE LOWER SIDE OF POPS AND MINIMIZE QPF.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE 70S MONDAY UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE LIGHT PRECIP HOLDING OFF
TIL TUESDAY. TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE HELD DOWN DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
FRONT PUSHES THRU TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING SHOWERS EXITING BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WITH DRY WEATHER AND FEW CLOUDS. FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING SOME MORE CLOUDS TO THE
AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.
FEEL MEX NUMBERS ARE GENERALLY TOO WARM...SO HAVE GONE WITH HPC
NUMBERS WITH SOME TWEAKS.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AAR/JMV/RPY
NEAR TERM...AAR
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...AAR
000
FXUS61 KRLX 071720
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1128 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL INTO MONDAY. FRONT ARRIVES TUESDAY
WITH NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN. COOLER AIR IN ITS WAKE FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LITTLE TO TALK ABOUT AS HIGH PRESSURE IS THE RULE THROUGH SUNDAY.
PREVIOUS RUNS OF NAM AND GFS HAD 850 MOISTURE OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF FORECAST AREA BUT NEW RUN OF GFS CUTS WAY BACK ON MOISTURE SO
HAVE CUT BACK ON CLOUDS OVER NIGHT. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
FORECAST. SUNDAY FIRE CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVED WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER DEW POINTS AND NO WIND ISSUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS TRENDING TOWARD MORE SEPARATION BETWEEN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO TROPICAL SYSTEM DRIFTING NORTHWARD...AND THE INCREASINGLY
PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE UNITED STATES BY END OF THIS
PERIOD. THIS SCENARIO APPEARING ON ALL BUT THE CANADIAN MODEL
SUGGESTS THAT NOT ONLY WILL THE GULF OF MEXICO SYSTEM AND ITS DEEP
MOISTURE STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION...BUT MOST OF THE NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY AND ITS LIMITED MOISTURE WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT AT THE
END OF THIS PERIOD WILL STAY MAINLY NORTH OF OUR AREA.
THUS...MAJORITY OF MODELS STRONGLY TRENDING TOWARD OUR AREA BEING IN
BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY WITH SOUTHERN MOISTURE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN SOUTH...AND WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT STILL TO THE WEST
AND NORTH.
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST OF OUR AREA THIS
WEEKEND...LOOK FOR A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING
THE 70S IN SOME SPOTS SUNDAY AND MONDAY UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
WEAK WARM FRONT DEVELOPS NORTH AND WEST OF US SUNDAY...HERALDING THE
WARMER AIR...BUT MOISTURE IS SO MARGINAL WILL MINIMIZE CLOUDS ACROSS
THE NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS REGION ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WEDNESDAY. BIG
QUESTION IS HOW HIGH TO GO WITH POPS WITH THIS FRONT. GFS SUGGESTS
MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA WILL
REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...WHILE ECMWF BRINGS MORE MOISTURE
NORTHWARD.
HARD TO BELIEVE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AS FAST AS THE ECMWF SUGGESTS.
INCREASED POPS EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN KEPT CHC POPS INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...LOWERED POPS FROM THE
WEST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANY RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END ACROSS THAT AREA BY NOON ON
WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WITH DRY WEATHER AND FEW CLOUDS. FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING SOME MORE CLOUDS TO THE
AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.
FEEL MEX NUMBERS ARE GENERALLY TOO WARM...SO HAVE GONE WITH HPC
NUMBERS WITH SOME TWEAKS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/CL
NEAR TERM...CL
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...CL
000
FXUS61 KRLX 071634
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1128 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL INTO MONDAY. FRONT ARRIVES TUESDAY
WITH NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK VORT OVER IL/IN ATTM GENERATING SOME HIGH CLOUDS. THIS WILL
MOVE OVER THE REGION BETWEEN 04Z-09Z TIME FRAME. UPDATED
DEWPOINTS...WIND..RH AND SKY TO KEEP IN LINE WHAT IS CURRENTLY
REPORTED AND TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGH CLOUDS. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GENERALLY GOOD. MAV TEMPS FOR TONIGHT LOOK
TOO HIGH AS DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN LOWER SO HAVE MIN TEMPS BELOW
MAV. CONDITIONS ARE CONTINUING TO DRY WITH DEW POINTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SOME WIND CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY RAISE THE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS TRENDING TOWARD MORE SEPARATION BETWEEN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO TROPICAL SYSTEM DRIFTING NORTHWARD...AND THE INCREASINGLY
PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE UNITED STATES BY END OF THIS
PERIOD. THIS SCENARIO APPEARING ON ALL BUT THE CANADIAN MODEL
SUGGESTS THAT NOT ONLY WILL THE GULF OF MEXICO SYSTEM AND ITS DEEP
MOISTURE STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION...BUT MOST OF THE NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY AND ITS LIMITED MOISTURE WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT AT THE
END OF THIS PERIOD WILL STAY MAINLY NORTH OF OUR AREA.
THUS...MAJORITY OF MODELS STRONGLY TRENDING TOWARD OUR AREA BEING IN
BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY WITH SOUTHERN MOISTURE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN SOUTH...AND WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT STILL TO THE WEST
AND NORTH.
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST OF OUR AREA THIS
WEEKEND...LOOK FOR A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING
THE 70S IN SOME SPOTS SUNDAY AND MONDAY UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
WEAK WARM FRONT DEVELOPS NORTH AND WEST OF US SUNDAY...HERALDING THE
WARMER AIR...BUT MOISTURE IS SO MARGINAL WILL MINIMIZE CLOUDS ACROSS
THE NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS SHOW A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...AND REMAINING THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD ON THE MODELS FOR SATURDAY HOWEVER...SO FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEANS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CIRRUS OVERHEAD AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSES BY. ANOTHER
RIPPLE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY. THIS ONE WILL SERVE TO
BUMP UP WIND GUSTS...UP TO 20 KNOTS IN SOME LOCATIONS LATER TODAY.
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PROVIDED FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED
STRATOCUMULUS TONIGHT...POSSIBLY FORMING A BORDERLINE MVFR CEILING
ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.
AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/CL
NEAR TERM...CL
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...CL
000
FXUS61 KRLX 071050
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
550 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL INTO MONDAY. FRONT ARRIVES TUESDAY
WITH NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN. COOLER AIR IN ITS WAKE FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK VORT OVER IL/IN ATTM GENERATING SOME HIGH CLOUDS. THIS WILL
MOVE OVER THE REGION BETWEEN 04Z-09Z TIME FRAME. UPDATED
DEWPOINTS...WIND..RH AND SKY TO KEEP IN LINE WHAT IS CURRENTLY
REPORTED AND TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGH CLOUDS. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GENERALLY GOOD. MAV TEMPS FOR TONIGHT LOOK
TOO HIGH AS DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN LOWER SO HAVE MIN TEMPS BELOW
MAV. CONDITIONS ARE CONTINUING TO DRY WITH DEW POINTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SOME WIND CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY RAISE THE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS TRENDING TOWARD MORE SEPARATION BETWEEN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO TROPICAL SYSTEM DRIFTING NORTHWARD...AND THE INCREASINGLY
PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE UNITED STATES BY END OF THIS
PERIOD. THIS SCENARIO APPEARING ON ALL BUT THE CANADIAN MODEL
SUGGESTS THAT NOT ONLY WILL THE GULF OF MEXICO SYSTEM AND ITS DEEP
MOISTURE STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION...BUT MOST OF THE NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY AND ITS LIMITED MOISTURE WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT AT THE
END OF THIS PERIOD WILL STAY MAINLY NORTH OF OUR AREA.
THUS...MAJORITY OF MODELS STRONGLY TRENDING TOWARD OUR AREA BEING IN
BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY WITH SOUTHERN MOISTURE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN SOUTH...AND WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT STILL TO THE WEST
AND NORTH.
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST OF OUR AREA THIS
WEEKEND...LOOK FOR A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING
THE 70S IN SOME SPOTS SUNDAY AND MONDAY UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
WEAK WARM FRONT DEVELOPS NORTH AND WEST OF US SUNDAY...HERALDING THE
WARMER AIR...BUT MOISTURE IS SO MARGINAL WILL MINIMIZE CLOUDS ACROSS
THE NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS REGION ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WEDNESDAY. BIG
QUESTION IS HOW HIGH TO GO WITH POPS WITH THIS FRONT. GFS SUGGESTS
MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA WILL
REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...WHILE ECMWF BRINGS MORE MOISTURE
NORTHWARD.
HARD TO BELIEVE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AS FAST AS THE ECMWF SUGGESTS.
INCREASED POPS EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN KEPT CHC POPS INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...LOWERED POPS FROM THE
WEST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANY RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END ACROSS THAT AREA BY NOON ON
WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WITH DRY WEATHER AND FEW CLOUDS. FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING SOME MORE CLOUDS TO THE
AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.
FEEL MEX NUMBERS ARE GENERALLY TOO WARM...SO HAVE GONE WITH HPC
NUMBERS WITH SOME TWEAKS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CIRRUS OVERHEAD AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSES BY. ANOTHER
RIPPLE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY. THIS ONE WILL SERVE TO
BUMP UP WIND GUSTS...UP TO 20 KNOTS IN SOME LOCATIONS LATER TODAY.
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PROVIDED FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED
STRATOCUMULUS TONIGHT...POSSIBLY FORMING A BORDERLINE MVFR CEILING
ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/CL
NEAR TERM...CL
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...CL
000
FXUS61 KRLX 070547
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1247 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL INTO MONDAY. FRONT ARRIVES TUESDAY
WITH NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN. COOLER AIR IN ITS WAKE FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WEAK VORT OVER IL/IN ATTM GENERATING SOME HIGH CLOUDS. THIS WILL
MOVE OVER THE REGION BETWEEN 04Z-09Z TIME FRAME. UPDATED
DEWPOINTS...WIND..RH AND SKY TO KEEP IN LINE WHAT IS CURRENTLY
REPORTED AND TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGH CLOUDS. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GENERALLY GOOD. MAV TEMPS FOR TONIGHT LOOK
TOO HIGH AS DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN LOWER SO HAVE MIN TEMPS BELOW
MAV. CONDITIONS ARE CONTINUING TO DRY WITH DEW POINTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SOME WIND CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY RAISE THE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS TRENDING TOWARD MORE SEPARATION BETWEEN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO TROPICAL SYSTEM DRIFTING NORTHWARD...AND THE INCREASINGLY
PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE UNITED STATES BY END OF THIS
PERIOD. THIS SCENARIO APPEARING ON ALL BUT THE CANADIAN MODEL
SUGGESTS THAT NOT ONLY WILL THE GULF OF MEXICO SYSTEM AND ITS DEEP
MOISTURE STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION...BUT MOST OF THE NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY AND ITS LIMITED MOISTURE WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT AT THE
END OF THIS PERIOD WILL STAY MAINLY NORTH OF OUR AREA.
THUS...MAJORITY OF MODELS STRONGLY TRENDING TOWARD OUR AREA BEING IN
BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY WITH SOUTHERN MOISTURE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN SOUTH...AND WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT STILL TO THE WEST
AND NORTH.
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST OF OUR AREA THIS
WEEKEND...LOOK FOR A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING
THE 70S IN SOME SPOTS SUNDAY AND MONDAY UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
WEAK WARM FRONT DEVELOPS NORTH AND WEST OF US SUNDAY...HERALDING THE
WARMER AIR...BUT MOISTURE IS SO MARGINAL WILL MINIMIZE CLOUDS ACROSS
THE NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS REGION ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WEDNESDAY. BIG
QUESTION IS HOW HIGH TO GO WITH POPS WITH THIS FRONT. GFS SUGGESTS
MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA WILL
REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...WHILE ECMWF BRINGS MORE MOISTURE
NORTHWARD.
HARD TO BELIEVE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AS FAST AS THE ECMWF SUGGESTS.
INCREASED POPS EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN KEPT CHC POPS INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...LOWERED POPS FROM THE
WEST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANY RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END ACROSS THAT AREA BY NOON ON
WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WITH DRY WEATHER AND FEW CLOUDS. FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING SOME MORE CLOUDS TO THE
AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.
FEEL MEX NUMBERS ARE GENERALLY TOO WARM...SO HAVE GONE WITH HPC
NUMBERS WITH SOME TWEAKS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ONLY CIRRUS OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK WAVE PASSES BY. NOT CALLING FOR LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT THIS POINT AS EXPECT BOUNDARY LAYER TO MIX AS
CLOUDS PASS...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT. LIGHT FOG/HAZE POSSIBLE
IN A FEW LOCATIONS NEAR SUNRISE. FEW CU POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST OHIO
THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...POCKET OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...MAY PRODUCE SOME STRATOCU AFTER 03Z
OR SO.
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/AAR/JMV
NEAR TERM...AAR/JS
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...CL
| 
