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000
FXUS61 KCTP 220804
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
304 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ANOMALOUS STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH
MID-WEEK. THEN A SERIES OF WAVES WILL CARVE OUT A TROUGH OVER
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA BEGINNING ABOUT THANKSGIVING. THE STRONG
TROUGH WHICH DEVELOPS BY THE WEEKEND AND THE RIDGE OVER WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA. IT WILL TURN COLDER AROUND THANKSGIVING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATED THE GRIDS AND WILL PUSH OUT A NEW ZONE SET BASED ON THESE
EDITS AS THE LOW CLOUDS ARE ERODING FAST. 3.9-11 MICRON DATA SHOWS
POTENTIAL CLEARING AS FAR NORTH AS STATE COLLEGE NOW. STILL LOTS
OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.
PROFILES SHOW THE INVERSION NEAR 750-780 HPA WEAKENING A BIT AND
CONSIDERABLE DRYING BELOW THIS FEATURE. THIS WOULD FAVOR THE
IMPROVED WEATHER AND LESS CLOUDS OVER STATE COLLEGE AND POINTS
SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER THE BRADFORD PROFILE SUGGESTS IT WILL TAKE
A GOOD 6 TO 8 HOURS TO DRY OUT UP THERE.
ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG AS THE T-TD
SPREAD IS SMALL. A GOOD PERIOD OF RADIATION WOULD HELP PRODUCE
SOME FOG. KEPT PATCHY FOG IN FORECAST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE UPPER 30 AND LOWER 40S. DEW POINTS
ARE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
ANY PATCHY FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING...AND WITH CONTINUED
RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT...EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY EVERYWHERE WITH A RELATIVELY MILD AFTERNOON.
THE NCEP ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT ANY RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME FRAME. BOTH SYSTEMS SHOW A 1032 HIGH OVER
NEW ENGLAND AND STRONG EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER OUR REGION.
CLOUDS SHOULD RETURN WITH EASTERLY FLOW. ANY PRECIPITATION OVER
NIGHT WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE BUT THE PROBABILITY IS LOW
SO DID NOT PUT IT IN AT THIS TIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE WEAK SYSTEM LIFTING NE FROM THE GULF AREA LATER ON
MONDAY INTO TUE. DID SLOW THINGS DOWN SOME AND THINK BULK OF
ANY RAIN WOULD HOLD OFF TO AFT. DID CUT POPS BACK SOME. EXPECT
AMTS TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
SOME CLDS AND LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE FOR THE MOST PART...COULD
LINGER INTO TUE.
QUITE A BIT OF VARIATION IN MODEL SOLUTIONS. COULD SEE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN AREAS STAYING DRY.
FOR WED...CENTRAL PA IS BETWEEN SYSTEMS. GFS LOOKS FAST...
HPC NOT AS FAST... WEIGHTED FCST TO SLOWER SPEED.
OVERALL...ONLY MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE PACKAGE.
FOR THU INTO SAT...TEMPS COOLING OFF CLOSER TO NORMAL...AS
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES...AND MORE OF A TROUGH
PATTERN PREVAILS ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. SOME RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTS THU INTO FRIDAY.
ENOUGH RIDGING MAY TAKE PLACE ON SATURDAY...TO KEEP MOST OF THE
AREA DRY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND PATCHY LIGHT FOG WILL HOLD TOUGH
OVER MUCH OF PA THROUGH MID MORNING...EXCECT FOR THE SUSQ-VALLEY
WHERE IT WILL REMAIN FEW/SKC. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AS FLOW TURNS N/NE
BNDRY LYR WILL DRY AND ERODE STRATUS DECK BTWN 12-14Z. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL THEN RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY.
OUTLOOK...
MON...MVFR LCL IFR. PSBL SHRA IN THE AFTN.
TUE...MVFR/IFR CIGS. SHRA IN THE AM.
WED...MVFR TO VFR.
THU...MVFR WITH CHC -SHRASN.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...BEACHLER/RXR