000
FXUS61 KOKX 250009
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
709 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL SIT OVER GEORGES BANK TONIGHT KEEPING THE
REGION IN A MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...WHILE A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST.
THE COASTAL LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST WHILE INTENSIFYING...RACING
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TOWARDS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST THIS EVENING...WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING IN ITS WAKE. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS FAIRLY STATIONARY OVER GEORGES BANK WITH A DAMMING HIGH
PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY.
UNCERTAINTY LIES IN CLOUD FORECAST AND THEREFORE TEMPS...WHERE A FEW
HOURS OF CLEARING COULD HAVE TEMPS RADIATING FAIRLY RAPIDLY. MODEL
RH FIELDS NOT PICKING UP ON MOISTURE POOLING THAT WELL THIS
AFTERNOON...AND CLEARING ACROSS WESTERN ZONES. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS EXPECTED...BUT EXACT PLACEMENT IS IN QUESTION.
OVERALL THINKING IS THAT CLOUD COVER INCREASES OVERNIGHT AS
LOW-LEVELS COOL. EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS.
OVERALL TEMPS RUNNING WELL ABOVE SEASONABLE IN THE MARITIME AIRMASS
AND WITH CLOUD COVER. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUTLYING
AREAS AS WELL...PARTICULARLY WHERE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST
DEVELOP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH A COMPLEX
INTERACTION BETWEEN TWO STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES OVER THE
UPPER MID WEST. THIS WILL BASICALLY RESULT IN ONE SHORTWAVE JUST
GLANCING THE REGION WED EVENING...WHILE A DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW DIGS
TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT.
A DAMMING HIGH SHOULD KEEP MOST OF WEDNESDAY DRY...ALTHOUGH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE STILL LIKELY WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH IT. THEN
AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY...A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE LATE WED INTO THURS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASED ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF A
WEAK INVERTED TROUGH. TEMPS ABOVE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME PERIOD...LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE US. AS A
CUTOFF LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH MOVE EASTWARD. THIS WILL HELP TO
TRACK THE DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM EAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC
AND THE TROUGH WILL BECOME INVERTED BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS REMAINING OFFSHORE. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE HEAVIEST
RAIN TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AS THE COASTAL STORM RACES WELL EAST OF
CAPE COD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT
SLOWING IN FORWARD PROGRESSION AS IT REACHES THE GULF OF MAINE.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED AS THE LOW TREKS NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA. HIGHS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BREAK 50 FOR THE ENTIRE REGION
ON FRIDAY. WITH SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT...AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE A SNOW FLAKE OR
ICE PELLET FOR AREAS WELL INLAND ON FRIDAY.
THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE THE WINDS ON THE
BACKSIDE. WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES ITS
INTENSIFICATION. WIND ADVISORY WINDS POSSIBLE FRI AFTERNOON INTO
FRI NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOSED H5 LOW PROGGED OVER THE CWA FRIDAY EVENING...AND HEADING NE
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTH TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. CHC POPS MAINLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS WHILE THE UPPER
LOW IS STILL OVERHEAD. THERMAL PROFILES POINT TO MAINLY RAIN
SHOWERS...HOWEVER...SNOW SHOWERS MAY MIX IN FOR PRIMARILY THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH OF THE CITY LATE AT NIGHT.
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WOULD BRING GUSTY NW WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. STRONG
DOWNSLOPING ON SATURDAY LIKELY KEEPS THE ENTIRE AREA DRY...HOWEVER
THERE WOULD BE SOME DEGREE OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GREAT
LAKES.
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE ALOFT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS. AFTER HIGHS MOSTLY 45-50 ON SATURDAY...AIR MASS
MODERATES FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY 50-55.
MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO TREND QUICKER AND WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON THE
SOUTHERN STREAM REGARDING THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO AFFECT
THE REGION. GIVEN RECENT MODEL RUN-TO RUN INCONSISTENCY...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE BEYOND MONDAY IS NOT HIGH. IT DOES APPEAR THE MOST OF
MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY...THEN AT LEAST A CHANCE OF PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY...WITH THE BEST OVERALL CHANCES OCCURRING DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CIGS MOVING IN FROM THE EAST. WITH NIGHTTIME COOLING AND THE
WESTWARD PROGRESSION THE EXISTING STRATUS...LOW END MVFR CIGS
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS REST OF THE TERMINALS. GUIDANCE HAS
DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE INITIAL TIME OF THE MVFR CIGS SO THERE
IS UNCERTAINTY TO WHEN THE CIGS COME DOWN TO MVFR RANGE. WINDS
BECOME LIGHTER AND STAY BELOW 10KT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST.
THERE IS ALSO UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN THE CIGS RAISE OUT OF THE
MVFR RANGE ON WEDNESDAY. WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA...A SIMILAR SCENARIO TO TODAYS SKY EVOLUTION MIGHT
PLAY OUT. HOWEVER...WITH WINDS TURNING MORE EASTERLY...THE PERIOD
OF VFR CIGS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
WED NIGHT...CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO MVFR AGAIN DURING THE
EVENING AND EVEN LOWER DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH POSSIBLE FOG.
SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
THU...VFR.
THU NIGHT-SAT...SUB-VFR LIKELY WITH GUSTY WINDS STARTING FRI NIGHT.
SAT NIGHT-SUN...VFR WITH GUSTY WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
MARGINAL SCA WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT. SCA ON THE OCEAN
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS DUE TO LONG PERIOD EASTERLY SWELLS WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH WED...TO MARGINAL SCA BY WED NIGHT. WILL EXTEND SCA
INTO WED FOR THE OCEAN SEAS.
OVERALL GRADIENT IS WEAK THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE GIVING
WAY TO INVERTED TROUGHING WED NIGHT INTO THURS.
NEXT EVENT IS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WHEN A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
RESULTS IN STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE. GALES ARE
LIKELY FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH LATE SATURDAY ON ALL WATERS. GALE
THREAT WOULD END EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...BUT SCA CONDITIONS WOULD
REMAIN PROBABLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A PERIOD OF SUB- SCA
CONDITIONS THEN FOLLOWS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED UNTIL A COASTAL LOW
IMPACTS THE AREA FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
1/4 TO 3/4 INCH OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...JP/NV
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JM/PW
MARINE...JC/JP/NV
HYDROLOGY...NV
000
FXUS61 KOKX 242112
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
412 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL SIT OVER GEORGES BANK TONIGHT KEEPING THE
REGION IN A MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...WHILE A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST.
THE COASTAL LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST WHILE INTENSIFYING...RACING
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TOWARDS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST THIS EVENING...WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING IN ITS WAKE. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS FAIRLY STATIONARY OVER GEORGES BANK WITH A DAMMING HIGH
PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY.
UNCERTAINTY LIES IN CLOUD FORECAST AND THEREFORE TEMPS...WHERE A FEW
HOURS OF CLEARING COULD HAVE TEMPS RADIATING FAIRLY RAPIDLY. MODEL
RH FIELDS NOT PICKING UP ON MOISTURE POOLING THAT WELL THIS
AFTERNOON...AND CLEARING ACROSS WESTERN ZONES. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS EXPECTED...BUT EXACT PLACEMENT IS IN QUESTION.
OVERALL THINKING IS THAT CLOUD COVER INCREASES OVERNIGHT AS
LOW-LEVELS COOL. EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS.
OVERALL TEMPS RUNNING WELL ABOVE SEASONABLE IN THE MARITIME AIRMASS
AND WITH CLOUD COVER. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUTLYING
AREAS AS WELL...PARTICULARLY WHERE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST
DEVELOP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH A COMPLEX
INTERACTION BETWEEN TWO STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES OVER THE
UPPER MID WEST. THIS WILL BASICALLY RESULT IN ONE SHORTWAVE JUST
GLANCING THE REGION WED EVENING...WHILE A DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW DIGS
TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT.
A DAMMING HIGH SHOULD KEEP MOST OF WEDNESDAY DRY...ALTHOUGH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE STILL LIKELY WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH IT. THEN
AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY...A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE LATE WED INTO THURS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASED ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF A
WEAK INVERTED TROUGH. TEMPS ABOVE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME PERIOD...LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE US. AS A
CUTOFF LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH MOVE EASTWARD. THIS WILL HELP TO
TRACK THE DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM EAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC
AND THE TROUGH WILL BECOME INVERTED BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS REMAINING OFFSHORE. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE HEAVIEST
RAIN TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AS THE COASTAL STORM RACES WELL EAST OF
CAPE COD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT
SLOWING IN FORWARD PROGRESSION AS IT REACHES THE GULF OF MAINE.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED AS THE LOW TREKS NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA. HIGHS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BREAK 50 FOR THE ENTIRE REGION
ON FRIDAY. WITH SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT...AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE A SNOW FLAKE OR
ICE PELLET FOR AREAS WELL INLAND ON FRIDAY.
THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE THE WINDS ON THE
BACKSIDE. WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS AS THE LOW CONTINUES ITS INTENSIFICATION. WIND
ADVISORY WINDS POSSIBLE FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOSED H5 LOW PROGGED OVER THE CWA FRIDAY EVENING...AND HEADING NE
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTH TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. CHC POPS MAINLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS WHILE THE UPPER
LOW IS STILL OVERHEAD. THERMAL PROFILES POINT TO MAINLY RAIN
SHOWERS...HOWEVER...SNOW SHOWERS MAY MIX IN FOR PRIMARILY THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH OF THE CITY LATE AT NIGHT.
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WOULD BRING GUSTY NW WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. STRONG
DOWNSLOPING ON SATURDAY LIKELY KEEPS THE ENTIRE AREA DRY...HOWEVER
THERE WOULD BE SOME DEGREE OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GREAT
LAKES.
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE ALOFT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS. AFTER HIGHS MOSTLY 45-50 ON SATURDAY...AIR MASS
MODERATES FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY 50-55.
MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO TREND QUICKER AND WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON THE
SOUTHERN STREAM REGARDING THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO AFFECT
THE REGION. GIVEN RECENT MODEL RUN-TO RUN INCONSISTENCY...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE BEYOND MONDAY IS NOT HIGH. IT DOES APPEAR THE MOST OF
MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY...THEN AT LEAST A CHANCE OF PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY...WITH THE BEST OVERALL CHANCES OCCURRING DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KNYC AND OTHER WESTERN TERMINALS CAUGHT IN BETWEEN TWO CLOUD DECKS
AND HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR AND SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. WITH MVFR BOTH TO THE WEST AND EAST...CIGS MAY BRIEFLY
DROP TO MVFR THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. EASTERN TERMINALS...UNDER A
DEEP CLOUD DECK...SHOULD REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WITH
MVFR DECK STILL OVER EASTERN PA AND WESTERN NJ...CIGS SHOULD DROP TO
MVFR ONCE AGAIN STARTING THIS EVENING...LASTING THROUGH WED MORNING
BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR.
NE WINDS 5-10 KT WILL DIMINISH TO 5 KT OR LESS THIS EVENING BEFORE
TURNING SE AND INCREASING TO 5-10 KT LATE WED MORNING.
TAF COMMENTS (FORECASTER INSIGHT ON TIMING, CONFIDENCE, TRENDS AND GROUND OPS)
KEWR...VFR WITH OCNL MVFR CIGS UNTIL THIS EVENING...THEN
MVFR CIGS.
KEWR HOURLY WIND FORECAST
ALL WIND DIRECTIONS ARE TRUE...ADD 13 DEGREES FOR MAGNETIC
24/18Z 03009KT
24/19Z 03010KT
24/20Z 04010KT
24/21Z 04010KT
24/22Z 04010KT
24/23Z 05009KT
25/00Z 05008KT
25/01Z 04007KT
25/02Z 03007KT
25/03Z 03006KT
25/04Z 03006KT
25/05Z 03006KT
KJFK...VFR WITH OCNL MVFR CIGS UNTIL THIS EVENING...THEN
MVFR CIGS.
KLGA...VFR WITH OCNL MVFR CIGS UNTIL THIS EVENING...THEN
MVFR CIGS.
KTEB...VFR WITH OCNL MVFR CIGS UNTIL THIS EVENING...THEN
MVFR CIGS.
KHPN...VFR WITH OCNL MVFR CIGS UNTIL THIS EVENING...THEN
MVFR CIGS.
KSWF...OCNL MVFR CIGS UNTIL THIS EVENING...THEN MVFR CIGS.
KISP...MVFR CIGS WITH OCNL BREAKS TO VFR THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THEN MVFR CIGS TONIGHT.
KBDR...VFR WITH OCNL MVFR CIGS UNTIL THIS EVENING...THEN
MVFR CIGS.
KGON...MVFR CIGS WITH A FEW BREAKS TO VFR POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS EVENING...THEN MVFR CIGS TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
WED/WED NIGHT...SUB-VFR PROBABLE.
THU...VFR.
THU NIGHT-SAT...SUB-VFR LIKELY.
SAT NIGHT-SUN...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
MARGINAL SCA WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT. SCA ON THE OCEAN
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS DUE TO LONG PERIOD EASTERLY SWELLS WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH WED...TO MARGINAL SCA BY WED NIGHT. WILL EXTEND SCA
INTO WED FOR THE OCEAN SEAS.
OVERALL GRADIENT IS WEAK THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE GIVING
WAY TO INVERTED TROUGHING WED NIGHT INTO THURS.
NEXT EVENT IS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WHEN A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
RESULTS IN STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE. GALES ARE
LIKELY FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH LATE SATURDAY ON ALL WATERS. GALE
THREAT WOULD END EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...BUT SCA CONDITIONS WOULD
REMAIN PROBABLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A PERIOD OF SUB- SCA
CONDITIONS THEN FOLLOWS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED UNTIL A COASTAL LOW
IMPACTS THE AREA FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
1/4 TO 3/4 INCH OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...JP/NV
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JC/JP/NV
HYDROLOGY...NV
000
FXUS61 KOKX 242059
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
359 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL SIT OVER GEORGES BANK TONIGHT KEEPING THE
REGION IN A MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...WHILE A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST.
THE COASTAL LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST WHILE INTENSIFYING...RACING
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST THIS EVENING...WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING IN ITS WAKE. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS FAIRLY STATIONARY OVER GEORGES BANK WITH A DAMMING HIGH
PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY.
UNCERTAINTY LIES IN CLOUD FORECAST AND THEREFORE TEMPS...WHERE A FEW
HOURS OF CLEARING COULD HAVE TEMPS RADIATING FAIRLY RAPIDLY. MODEL
RH FIELDS NOT PICKING UP ON MOISTURE POOLING THAT WELL THIS
AFTERNOON...AND CLEARING ACROSS WESTERN ZONES. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS EXPECTED...BUT EXACT PLACEMENT IS IN QUESTION.
OVERALL THINKING IS THAT CLOUD COVER INCREASES OVERNIGHT AS
LOW-LEVELS COOL. EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS.
OVERALL TEMPS RUNNING WELL ABOVE SEASONABLE IN THE MARITIME AIRMASS
AND WITH CLOUD COVER. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUTLYING
AREAS AS WELL...PARTICULARLY WHERE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST
DEVELOP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH A COMPLEX
INTERACTION BETWEEN TWO STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES OVER THE
UPPER MID WEST. THIS WILL BASICALLY RESULT IN ONE SHORTWAVE JUST
GLANCING THE REGION WED EVENING...WHILE A DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW DIGS
TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT.
A DAMMING HIGH SHOULD KEEP MOST OF WEDNESDAY DRY...ALTHOUGH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE STILL LIKELY WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH IT. THEN
AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY...A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE LATE WED INTO THURS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASED ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF A
WEAK INVERTED TROUGH. TEMPS ABOVE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT IN RESPONSE TO AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN (AND MAYBE
DRIZZLE) THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES
THURSDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN...ESPECIALLY
OVERNIGHT (LIKELY POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT).
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOSED H5 LOW PROGGED OVER THE CWA FRIDAY EVENING...AND HEADING NE
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTH TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. CHC POPS MAINLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS WHILE THE UPPER
LOW IS STILL OVERHEAD. THERMAL PROFILES POINT TO MAINLY RAIN
SHOWERS...HOWEVER...SNOW SHOWERS MAY MIX IN FOR PRIMARILY THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH OF THE CITY LATE AT NIGHT.
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WOULD BRING GUSTY NW WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. STRONG
DOWNSLOPING ON SATURDAY LIKELY KEEPS THE ENTIRE AREA DRY...HOWEVER
THERE WOULD BE SOME DEGREE OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GREAT
LAKES.
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE ALOFT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS. AFTER HIGHS MOSTLY 45-50 ON SATURDAY...AIR MASS
MODERATES FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY 50-55.
MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO TREND QUICKER AND WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON THE
SOUTHERN STREAM REGARDING THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO AFFECT
THE REGION. GIVEN RECENT MODEL RUN-TO RUN INCONSISTENCY...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE BEYOND MONDAY IS NOT HIGH. IT DOES APPEAR THE MOST OF
MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY...THEN AT LEAST A CHANCE OF PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY...WITH THE BEST OVERALL CHANCES OCCURRING DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KNYC AND OTHER WESTERN TERMINALS CAUGHT IN BETWEEN TWO CLOUD DECKS
AND HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR AND SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. WITH MVFR BOTH TO THE WEST AND EAST...CIGS MAY BRIEFLY
DROP TO MVFR THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. EASTERN TERMINALS...UNDER A
DEEP CLOUD DECK...SHOULD REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WITH
MVFR DECK STILL OVER EASTERN PA AND WESTERN NJ...CIGS SHOULD DROP TO
MVFR ONCE AGAIN STARTING THIS EVENING...LASTING THROUGH WED MORNING
BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR.
NE WINDS 5-10 KT WILL DIMINISH TO 5 KT OR LESS THIS EVENING BEFORE
TURNING SE AND INCREASING TO 5-10 KT LATE WED MORNING.
TAF COMMENTS (FORECASTER INSIGHT ON TIMING, CONFIDENCE, TRENDS AND GROUND OPS)
KEWR...VFR WITH OCNL MVFR CIGS UNTIL THIS EVENING...THEN
MVFR CIGS.
KEWR HOURLY WIND FORECAST
ALL WIND DIRECTIONS ARE TRUE...ADD 13 DEGREES FOR MAGNETIC
24/18Z 03009KT
24/19Z 03010KT
24/20Z 04010KT
24/21Z 04010KT
24/22Z 04010KT
24/23Z 05009KT
25/00Z 05008KT
25/01Z 04007KT
25/02Z 03007KT
25/03Z 03006KT
25/04Z 03006KT
25/05Z 03006KT
KJFK...VFR WITH OCNL MVFR CIGS UNTIL THIS EVENING...THEN
MVFR CIGS.
KLGA...VFR WITH OCNL MVFR CIGS UNTIL THIS EVENING...THEN
MVFR CIGS.
KTEB...VFR WITH OCNL MVFR CIGS UNTIL THIS EVENING...THEN
MVFR CIGS.
KHPN...VFR WITH OCNL MVFR CIGS UNTIL THIS EVENING...THEN
MVFR CIGS.
KSWF...OCNL MVFR CIGS UNTIL THIS EVENING...THEN MVFR CIGS.
KISP...MVFR CIGS WITH OCNL BREAKS TO VFR THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THEN MVFR CIGS TONIGHT.
KBDR...VFR WITH OCNL MVFR CIGS UNTIL THIS EVENING...THEN
MVFR CIGS.
KGON...MVFR CIGS WITH A FEW BREAKS TO VFR POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS EVENING...THEN MVFR CIGS TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
WED/WED NIGHT...SUB-VFR PROBABLE.
THU...VFR.
THU NIGHT-SAT...SUB-VFR LIKELY.
SAT NIGHT-SUN...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
MARGINAL SCA WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT. SCA ON THE OCEAN
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS DUE TO LONG PERIOD EASTERLY SWELLS WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH WED...TO MARGINAL SCA BY WED NIGHT. WILL EXTEND SCA
INTO WED FOR THE OCEAN SEAS.
OVERALL GRADIENT IS WEAK THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE GIVING
WAY TO INVERTED TROUGHING WED NIGHT INTO THURS.
NEXT EVENT IS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WHEN A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
RESULTS IN STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE. GALES ARE
LIKELY FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH LATE SATURDAY ON ALL WATERS. GALE
THREAT WOULD END EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...BUT SCA CONDITIONS WOULD
REMAIN PROBABLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A PERIOD OF SUB- SCA
CONDITIONS THEN FOLLOWS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED UNTIL A COASTAL LOW
IMPACTS THE AREA FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A
HALF TO 1 INCH OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...JP/NV
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JC/JP/NV
HYDROLOGY...NV
000
FXUS61 KOKX 241933
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
233 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD TODAY
KEEPING THE REGION IN A MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL START TO APPROACH FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW WILL REFORM OVER THE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY BEFORE
INTENSIFYING AND TRACKING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...JUST TWEAKED EVERYTHING TO COME MORE IN
LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL TAPER OFF
THIS MORNING AS A 500 HPA SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST AND LOW TO
MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC DESCENT DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. EVEN WITH
ENDING OF PRECIPITATION STILL WILL HAVE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDER A LOW TO MID LEVEL INVERSION THAT WILL AT BEST END
UP WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH MINIMAL
INSOLATION...EVEN WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND 6C...WILL ONLY
HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF 12KM NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
WITH MAV GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN HANDLING OF PATTERN THROUGH ABOUT
WEDNESDAY...THEN DIVERGE IN HANDLING OF COASTAL LOW FOR LATER THIS
WEEK. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH BET FIT WITH CONTINUITY ARE THE
SREF/ECMWF AND TO LESSER EXTENT THE GFS. AS A RESULT FOLLOWED A
NAM/GFS BLEND THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN THE SREF WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
STRENGTHENING OF THE EXTENSION OF THE DAMMING HIGH OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL KEEP ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDER A LOW LEVEL INVERSION INTO THURSDAY...RESULTING IN
AT BEST MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS. IT SHOULD BE DRY TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY ABSENT ANY FORCING...THEN A PASSING 500 AND 700
HPA SHORTWAVE...ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE CUTOFF LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES...SHOULD TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT IN RESPONSE TO AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN (AND MAYBE
DRIZZLE) THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES
THURSDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN...ESPECIALLY
OVERNIGHT (LIKELY POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT).
FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR
LOWS TONIGHT (ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL)...COOLER MET NUMBERS
WITH CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY (SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL)...WARMER MAV
NUMBERS WITH CLOUD COVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT (ONCE AGAIN ROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) AND COOLER MET NUMBERS THURSDAY (CLOUD COVER
AND DEVELOPING LIGHT RAIN) - ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND
USED MEX/MEX ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND FOR LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT (5 TO 9
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FROM A CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUITY PERSPECTIVE FAVORED THE ECMWF IN
THE EXTENDED. DO NOTE THAT THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE
MODELS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD SO THIS IS AT BEST A MODERATE
CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME
PROVINCES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY WEAK RIDGING SUNDAY
NIGHT...GIVING WAY TO AN APPROACHING 500/700 HPA SHORTWAVE ON
MONDAY.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...IT SHOULD BE WET FROM FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF ON SATURDAY AS LOW
PULLS OF TO THE NORTHEAST. ENOUGH COLD AIR SHOULD WORK ITS WAY IN
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM THAT THE RAIN SHOULD MIX WITH SNOW
BEFORE ENDING ACROSS MAINLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE INTERIOR. IT
SHOULD THEN BE DRY SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS MONDAY AHEAD OF ADVANCING TROUGH INTERACTING WITH
STATIONARY FRONT JUST TO OUR SOUTH.
FOR TEMPERATURES ADJUSTED A MEX/MEX ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND TO FIT
WITH THE ECMWF FORECAST...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ON SATURDAY...AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KNYC AND OTHER WESTERN TERMINALS CAUGHT IN BETWEEN TWO CLOUD DECKS
AND HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR AND SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. WITH MVFR BOTH TO THE WEST AND EAST...CIGS MAY BRIEFLY
DROP TO MVFR THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. EASTERN TERMINALS...UNDER A
DEEP CLOUD DECK...SHOULD REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WITH
MVFR DECK STILL OVER EASTERN PA AND WESTERN NJ...CIGS SHOULD DROP TO
MVFR ONCE AGAIN STARTING THIS EVENING...LASTING THROUGH WED MORNING
BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR.
NE WINDS 5-10 KT WILL DIMINISH TO 5 KT OR LESS THIS EVENING BEFORE
TURNING SE AND INCREASING TO 5-10 KT LATE WED MORNING.
TAF COMMENTS (FORECASTER INSIGHT ON TIMING...CONFIDENCE...TRENDS AND
GROUND OPS)
KEWR...VFR WITH OCNL MVFR CIGS UNTIL THIS EVENING...THEN
MVFR CIGS.
KEWR HOURLY WIND FORECAST
ALL WIND DIRECTIONS ARE TRUE...ADD 13 DEGREES FOR MAGNETIC
24/18Z 03009KT
24/19Z 03010KT
24/20Z 04010KT
24/21Z 04010KT
24/22Z 04010KT
24/23Z 05009KT
25/00Z 05008KT
25/01Z 04007KT
25/02Z 03007KT
25/03Z 03006KT
25/04Z 03006KT
25/05Z 03006KT
KJFK...VFR WITH OCNL MVFR CIGS UNTIL THIS EVENING...THEN
MVFR CIGS.
KLGA...VFR WITH OCNL MVFR CIGS UNTIL THIS EVENING...THEN
MVFR CIGS.
KTEB...VFR WITH OCNL MVFR CIGS UNTIL THIS EVENING...THEN
MVFR CIGS.
KHPN...VFR WITH OCNL MVFR CIGS UNTIL THIS EVENING...THEN
MVFR CIGS.
KSWF...OCNL MVFR CIGS UNTIL THIS EVENING...THEN MVFR CIGS.
KISP...MVFR CIGS WITH OCNL BREAKS TO VFR THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THEN MVFR CIGS TONIGHT.
KBDR...VFR WITH OCNL MVFR CIGS UNTIL THIS EVENING...THEN
MVFR CIGS.
KGON...MVFR CIGS WITH A FEW BREAKS TO VFR POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS EVENING...THEN MVFR CIGS TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
WED/WED NIGHT...SUB-VFR PROBABLE.
THU...VFR.
THU NIGHT-SAT...SUB-VFR LIKELY.
SAT NIGHT-SUN...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
TOOK SCA DOWN DOWN OVER THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS AS GUSTS HAVE COME
DOWN BELOW 25 KT AND SHOULD CONTOUR TO SUBSIDE. SCA REMAINS ON
OCEAN WATERS FOR MARGINAL GUSTS AND HIGH SEAS.
THE SCA ON THE OCEAN WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A CONVERSION TO SCA FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS TONIGHT AS SEAS OVER 5 FT DO NOT SUBSIDE UNTIL
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
NEXT EVENT IS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WHEN A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
RESULTS IN STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. GALES ARE LIKELY FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH LATE SATURDAY ON ALL WATERS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR
STORM FORCE SATURDAY MORNING.
LASTLY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOW WATER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.
NOTE THAT THE CENTRAL SOUND BUOY IS CURRENTLY OUT OF SERVICE. THE
BUOY SOUTH OF MONTAUK HAS BEEN REMOVED FOR REPAIRS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED UNTIL A COASTAL LOW
IMPACTS THE AREA FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A
HALF TO 1 INCH OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...
000
FXUS61 KOKX 241739
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1239 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD TODAY
KEEPING THE REGION IN A MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL START TO APPROACH FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW WILL REFORM OVER THE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY BEFORE
INTENSIFYING AND TRACKING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...JUST TWEAKED EVERYTHING TO COME MORE IN
LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL TAPER OFF
THIS MORNING AS A 500 HPA SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST AND LOW TO
MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC DESCENT DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. EVEN WITH
ENDING OF PRECIPITATION STILL WILL HAVE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDER A LOW TO MID LEVEL INVERSION THAT WILL AT BEST END
UP WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH MINIMAL
INSOLATION...EVEN WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND 6C...WILL ONLY
HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF 12KM NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
WITH MAV GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN HANDLING OF PATTERN THROUGH ABOUT
WEDNESDAY...THEN DIVERGE IN HANDLING OF COASTAL LOW FOR LATER THIS
WEEK. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH BET FIT WITH CONTINUITY ARE THE
SREF/ECMWF AND TO LESSER EXTENT THE GFS. AS A RESULT FOLLOWED A
NAM/GFS BLEND THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN THE SREF WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
STRENGTHENING OF THE EXTENSION OF THE DAMMING HIGH OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL KEEP ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDER A LOW LEVEL INVERSION INTO THURSDAY...RESULTING IN
AT BEST MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS. IT SHOULD BE DRY TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY ABSENT ANY FORCING...THEN A PASSING 500 AND 700
HPA SHORTWAVE...ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE CUTOFF LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES...SHOULD TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT IN RESPONSE TO AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN (AND MAYBE
DRIZZLE) THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES
THURSDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN...ESPECIALLY
OVERNIGHT (LIKELY POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT).
FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR
LOWS TONIGHT (ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL)...COOLER MET NUMBERS
WITH CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY (SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL)...WARMER MAV
NUMBERS WITH CLOUD COVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT (ONCE AGAIN ROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) AND COOLER MET NUMBERS THURSDAY (CLOUD COVER
AND DEVELOPING LIGHT RAIN) - ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND
USED MEX/MEX ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND FOR LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT (5 TO 9
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FROM A CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUITY PERSPECTIVE FAVORED THE ECMWF IN
THE EXTENDED. DO NOTE THAT THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE
MODELS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD SO THIS IS AT BEST A MODERATE
CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME
PROVINCES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY WEAK RIDGING SUNDAY
NIGHT...GIVING WAY TO AN APPROACHING 500/700 HPA SHORTWAVE ON
MONDAY.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...IT SHOULD BE WET FROM FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF ON SATURDAY AS LOW
PULLS OF TO THE NORTHEAST. ENOUGH COLD AIR SHOULD WORK ITS WAY IN
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM THAT THE RAIN SHOULD MIX WITH SNOW
BEFORE ENDING ACROSS MAINLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE INTERIOR. IT
SHOULD THEN BE DRY SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS MONDAY AHEAD OF ADVANCING TROUGH INTERACTING WITH
STATIONARY FRONT JUST TO OUR SOUTH.
FOR TEMPERATURES ADJUSTED A MEX/MEX ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND TO FIT
WITH THE ECMWF FORECAST...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ON SATURDAY...AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME OF THE MVFR CIGS HAS SCATTERED OUT...RESULTING IN LOW-END VFR
ACROSS KNYC AND OTHER WESTERN TERMINALS. WITH MVFR DECK STILL OVER
EASTERN PA AND WESTERN NJ...WILL LOOK FOR OCNL MVFR THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.
WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING THIS EVENING...CIGS DROP BACK DOWN TO
MVFR THROUGHOUT AND SHOULD REMAIN AT MVFR THROUGH LATE WED MORNING
WHEN CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR.
NE WINDS 5-10 KT WILL DIMINISH TO 5 KT OR LESS THIS EVENING BEFORE
TURNING SE AND INCREASING TO 5-10 KT LATE WED MORNING.
TAF COMMENTS (FORECASTER INSIGHT ON TIMING...CONFIDENCE...TRENDS
AND GROUND OPS)
KEWR...OCNL MVFR CIGS UNTIL THIS EVENING...THEN MVFR CIGS.
KEWR HOURLY WIND FORECAST
ALL WIND DIRECTIONS ARE TRUE...ADD 13 DEGREES FOR MAGNETIC
24/16Z 04009KT
24/17Z 03009KT
24/18Z 03009KT
24/19Z 03010KT
24/20Z 04010KT
24/21Z 04010KT
24/22Z 04010KT
24/23Z 05009KT
25/00Z 05008KT
25/01Z 04007KT
25/02Z 03007KT
25/03Z 03006KT
KJFK...OCNL MVFR CIGS UNTIL THIS EVENING...THEN MVFR CIGS.
KLGA...OCNL MVFR CIGS UNTIL THIS EVENING...THEN MVFR CIGS.
KTEB...OCNL MVFR CIGS UNTIL THIS EVENING...THEN MVFR CIGS.
KHPN...GENERALLY VFR WITH OCNL MVFR CIGS UNTIL THIS
EVENING...THEN MVFR CIGS.
KSWF...OCNL MVFR CIGS UNTIL THIS EVENING...THEN MVFR CIGS.
KISP...MVFR CIGS WITH OCNL BREAKS TO VFR THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THEN MVFR CIGS TONIGHT.
KBDR...GENERALLY VFR WITH OCNL MVFR CIGS UNTIL THIS
EVENING...THEN MVFR CIGS.
KGON...MVFR CIGS WITH OCNL BREAKS TO VFR THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THEN MVFR CIGS TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
WED/WED NIGHT...SUB-VFR PROBABLE.
THU...VFR.
THU NIGHT-SAT...SUB-VFR LIKELY.
SAT NIGHT-SUN...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
TOOK SCA DOWN DOWN OVER THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS AS GUSTS HAVE COME
DOWN BELOW 25 KT AND SHOULD CONTOUR TO SUBSIDE. SCA REMAINS ON
OCEAN WATERS FOR MARGINAL GUSTS AND HIGH SEAS.
THE SCA ON THE OCEAN WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A CONVERSION TO SCA FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS TONIGHT AS SEAS OVER 5 FT DO NOT SUBSIDE UNTIL
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
NEXT EVENT IS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WHEN A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
RESULTS IN STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. GALES ARE LIKELY FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH LATE SATURDAY ON ALL WATERS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR
STORM FORCE SATURDAY MORNING.
LASTLY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOW WATER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.
NOTE THAT THE CENTRAL SOUND BUOY IS CURRENTLY OUT OF SERVICE. THE
BUOY SOUTH OF MONTAUK HAS BEEN REMOVED FOR REPAIRS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED UNTIL A COASTAL LOW
IMPACTS THE AREA FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A
HALF TO 1 INCH OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...
000
FXUS61 KOKX 241519
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1019 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD TODAY
KEEPING THE REGION IN A MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL START TO APPROACH FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW WILL REFORM OVER THE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY BEFORE
INTENSIFYING AND TRACKING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...JUST TWEAKED EVERYTHING TO COME MORE IN
LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL TAPER OFF
THIS MORNING AS A 500 HPA SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST AND LOW TO
MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC DESCENT DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. EVEN WITH
ENDING OF PRECIPITATION STILL WILL HAVE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDER A LOW TO MID LEVEL INVERSION THAT WILL AT BEST END
UP WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH MINIMAL
INSOLATION...EVEN WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND 6C...WILL ONLY
HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF 12KM NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
WITH MAV GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN HANDLING OF PATTERN THROUGH ABOUT
WEDNESDAY...THEN DIVERGE IN HANDLING OF COASTAL LOW FOR LATER THIS
WEEK. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH BET FIT WITH CONTINUITY ARE THE
SREF/ECMWF AND TO LESSER EXTENT THE GFS. AS A RESULT FOLLOWED A
NAM/GFS BLEND THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN THE SREF WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
STRENGTHENING OF THE EXTENSION OF THE DAMMING HIGH OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL KEEP ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDER A LOW LEVEL INVERSION INTO THURSDAY...RESULTING IN
AT BEST MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS. IT SHOULD BE DRY TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY ABSENT ANY FORCING...THEN A PASSING 500 AND 700
HPA SHORTWAVE...ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE CUTOFF LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES...SHOULD TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT IN RESPONSE TO AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN (AND MAYBE
DRIZZLE) THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES
THURSDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN...ESPECIALLY
OVERNIGHT (LIKELY POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT).
FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR
LOWS TONIGHT (ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL)...COOLER MET NUMBERS
WITH CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY (SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL)...WARMER MAV
NUMBERS WITH CLOUD COVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT (ONCE AGAIN ROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) AND COOLER MET NUMBERS THURSDAY (CLOUD COVER
AND DEVELOPING LIGHT RAIN) - ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND
USED MEX/MEX ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND FOR LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT (5 TO 9
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FROM A CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUITY PERSPECTIVE FAVORED THE ECMWF IN
THE EXTENDED. DO NOTE THAT THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE
MODELS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD SO THIS IS AT BEST A MODERATE
CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME
PROVINCES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY WEAK RIDGING SUNDAY
NIGHT...GIVING WAY TO AN APPROACHING 500/700 HPA SHORTWAVE ON
MONDAY.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...IT SHOULD BE WET FROM FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF ON SATURDAY AS LOW
PULLS OF TO THE NORTHEAST. ENOUGH COLD AIR SHOULD WORK ITS WAY IN
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM THAT THE RAIN SHOULD MIX WITH SNOW
BEFORE ENDING ACROSS MAINLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE INTERIOR. IT
SHOULD THEN BE DRY SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS MONDAY AHEAD OF ADVANCING TROUGH INTERACTING WITH
STATIONARY FRONT JUST TO OUR SOUTH.
FOR TEMPERATURES ADJUSTED A MEX/MEX ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND TO FIT
WITH THE ECMWF FORECAST...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ON SATURDAY...AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME IFR THROUGH LATE MORNING...OTHERWISE GENERALLY MVFR CIGS ON TAP
FOR TODAY. BY LATE AFTERNOON...SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
DRY OUT ENOUGH FOR CIGS TO IMPROVE TO LOW-END VFR. MVFR TO IFR CIGS
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.
NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KT.
MVFR/IFR CIGS HANG AROUND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND COULD LINGER
TOWARD EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
TAF COMMENTS (FORECASTER INSIGHT ON TIMING, CONFIDENCE, TRENDS AND GROUND OPS)
KEWR...HIGH CONFIDENCE MVFR CIGS THROUGH TODAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON LOW-END VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON.
KEWR HOURLY WIND FORECAST
ALL WIND DIRECTIONS ARE TRUE...ADD 13 DEGREES FOR MAGNETIC
24/12Z 03009KT
24/13Z 03009KT
24/14Z 03010KT
24/15Z 03010KT
24/16Z 03009KT
24/17Z 03008KT
24/18Z 03008KT
24/19Z 03008KT
24/20Z 03008KT
24/21Z 03008KT
24/22Z 03007KT
24/23Z 03007KT
KJFK...HIGH CONFIDENCE MVFR CIGS THROUGH TODAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON LOW-END VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON.
KLGA...HIGH CONFIDENCE MVFR CIGS THROUGH TODAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON LOW-END VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON.
KTEB...HIGH CONFIDENCE MVFR CIGS THROUGH TODAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON LOW-END VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON.
KHPN...HIGH CONFIDENCE MVFR CIGS THROUGH TODAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON LOW-END VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON.
KSWF...HIGH CONFIDENCE MVFR CIGS THROUGH TODAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON LOW-END VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON.
KISP...HIGH CONFIDENCE MVFR CIGS THROUGH TODAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON LOW-END VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON.
KBDR...HIGH CONFIDENCE MVFR CIGS THROUGH TODAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON LOW-END VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON.
KGON...HIGH CONFIDENCE MVFR CIGS THROUGH TODAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON LOW-END VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH CONTINUED DECREASING WINDS. WINDS TURN TO MORE
EASTERLY BY WEDNESDAY. LOWERING CIGS TO IFR POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN.
FRIDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN
NORTH AND WEST OF THE NYC TERMINALS AT NIGHT.
SATURDAY...VFR CEILINGS IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION/CYCLONIC FLOW.
&&
.MARINE...
TOOK SCA DOWN DOWN OVER THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS AS GUSTS HAVE COME
DOWN BELOW 25 KT AND SHOULD CONTOUR TO SUBSIDE. SCA REMAINS ON
OCEAN WATERS FOR MARGINAL GUSTS AND HIGH SEAS.
THE SCA ON THE OCEAN WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A CONVERSION TO SCA FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS TONIGHT AS SEAS OVER 5 FT DO NOT SUBSIDE UNTIL
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
NEXT EVENT IS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WHEN A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
RESULTS IN STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. GALES ARE LIKELY FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH LATE SATURDAY ON ALL WATERS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR
STORM FORCE SATURDAY MORNING.
LASTLY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOW WATER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.
NOTE THAT THE CENTRAL SOUND BUOY IS CURRENTLY OUT OF SERVICE. THE
BUOY SOUTH OF MONTAUK HAS BEEN REMOVED FOR REPAIRS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED UNTIL A COASTAL LOW
IMPACTS THE AREA FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A
HALF TO 1 INCH OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KOKX 241435
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
935 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD TODAY
KEEPING THE REGION IN A MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL START TO APPROACH FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW WILL REFORM OVER THE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY BEFORE
INTENSIFYING AND TRACKING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AS A 500
HPA SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST AND LOW TO MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC
DESCENT DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. EVEN WITH ENDING OF
PRECIPITATION STILL WILL HAVE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED
UNDER A LOW TO MID LEVEL INVERSION THAT WILL AT BEST END UP WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH MINIMAL
INSOLATION...EVEN WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND 6C...WILL ONLY
HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF 12KM NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
WITH MAV GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN HANDLING OF PATTERN THROUGH ABOUT
WEDNESDAY...THEN DIVERGE IN HANDLING OF COASTAL LOW FOR LATER THIS
WEEK. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH BET FIT WITH CONTINUITY ARE THE
SREF/ECMWF AND TO LESSER EXTENT THE GFS. AS A RESULT FOLLOWED A
NAM/GFS BLEND THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN THE SREF WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
STRENGTHENING OF THE EXTENSION OF THE DAMMING HIGH OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL KEEP ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDER A LOW LEVEL INVERSION INTO THURSDAY...RESULTING IN
AT BEST MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS. IT SHOULD BE DRY TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY ABSENT ANY FORCING...THEN A PASSING 500 AND 700
HPA SHORTWAVE...ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE CUTOFF LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES...SHOULD TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT IN RESPONSE TO AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN (AND MAYBE
DRIZZLE) THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES
THURSDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN...ESPECIALLY
OVERNIGHT (LIKELY POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT).
FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR
LOWS TONIGHT (ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL)...COOLER MET NUMBERS
WITH CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY (SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL)...WARMER MAV
NUMBERS WITH CLOUD COVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT (ONCE AGAIN ROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) AND COOLER MET NUMBERS THURSDAY (CLOUD COVER
AND DEVELOPING LIGHT RAIN) - ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND
USED MEX/MEX ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND FOR LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT (5 TO 9
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FROM A CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUITY PERSPECTIVE FAVORED THE ECMWF IN
THE EXTENDED. DO NOTE THAT THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE
MODELS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD SO THIS IS AT BEST A MODERATE
CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME
PROVINCES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY WEAK RIDGING SUNDAY
NIGHT...GIVING WAY TO AN APPROACHING 500/700 HPA SHORTWAVE ON
MONDAY.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...IT SHOULD BE WET FROM FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF ON SATURDAY AS LOW
PULLS OF TO THE NORTHEAST. ENOUGH COLD AIR SHOULD WORK ITS WAY IN
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM THAT THE RAIN SHOULD MIX WITH SNOW
BEFORE ENDING ACROSS MAINLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE INTERIOR. IT
SHOULD THEN BE DRY SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS MONDAY AHEAD OF ADVANCING TROUGH INTERACTING WITH
STATIONARY FRONT JUST TO OUR SOUTH.
FOR TEMPERATURES ADJUSTED A MEX/MEX ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND TO FIT
WITH THE ECMWF FORECAST...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ON SATURDAY...AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY MVFR CIGS ON TAP FOR TODAY. SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY DRY OUT ENOUGH FOR CIGS TO IMPROVE TO LOW-END
VFR...BUT THAT SHOULD BE TEMPORARY. MVFR TO IFR CIGS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT.
NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KT.
MVFR/IFR CIGS HANG AROUND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND COULD LINGER
TOWARD EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
TAF COMMENTS (FORECASTER INSIGHT ON TIMING...CONFIDENCE...TRENDS AND
GROUND OPS)
KEWR...HIGH CONFIDENCE MVFR CIGS THROUGH TODAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON LOW-END VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON.
KEWR HOURLY WIND FORECAST
ALL WIND DIRECTIONS ARE TRUE...ADD 13 DEGREES FOR MAGNETIC
24/12Z 03009KT
24/13Z 03009KT
24/14Z 03010KT
24/15Z 03010KT
24/16Z 03009KT
24/17Z 03008KT
24/18Z 03008KT
24/19Z 03008KT
24/20Z 03008KT
24/21Z 03008KT
24/22Z 03007KT
24/23Z 03007KT
KJFK...HIGH CONFIDENCE MVFR CIGS THROUGH TODAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON LOW-END VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON.
KLGA...HIGH CONFIDENCE MVFR CIGS THROUGH TODAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON LOW-END VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON.
KTEB...HIGH CONFIDENCE MVFR CIGS THROUGH TODAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON LOW-END VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON.
KHPN...HIGH CONFIDENCE MVFR CIGS THROUGH TODAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON LOW-END VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON.
KSWF...HIGH CONFIDENCE MVFR CIGS THROUGH TODAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON LOW-END VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON.
KISP...HIGH CONFIDENCE MVFR CIGS THROUGH TODAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON LOW-END VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON.
KBDR...HIGH CONFIDENCE MVFR CIGS THROUGH TODAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON LOW-END VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON.
KGON...HIGH CONFIDENCE MVFR CIGS THROUGH TODAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON LOW-END VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH CONTINUED DECREASING WINDS. WINDS TURN TO MORE
EASTERLY BY WEDNESDAY. LOWERING CIGS TO IFR POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN.
FRIDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN
NORTH AND WEST OF THE NYC TERMINALS AT NIGHT.
SATURDAY...VFR CEILINGS IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION/CYCLONIC FLOW.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD TODAY WITH ALLOW FOR
THE DISCONTINUANCE OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) FOR WINDS BY
LATE AFTERNOON. PRESENTLY...WINDS ON THE SOUND ARE ONLY GUSTING TO
AROUND 20 KT...BUT STILL FORECASTING MINIMAL SCA WIND GUSTS ON THE
SOUND OF 20 TO 25 KT TO PREVAIL. THE SCA ON THE OCEAN WILL REQUIRE A
CONVERSION TO SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TONIGHT AS SEAS OVER 5 FT DO
NOT SUBSIDE UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...HAVE EXTENDED THE
GENERIC SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS.
NEXT EVENT IS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WHEN A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
RESULTS IN STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. GALES ARE LIKELY FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH LATE SATURDAY ON ALL WATERS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR
STORM FORCE SATURDAY MORNING.
LASTLY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOW WATER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.
NOTE THAT THE CENTRAL SOUND BUOY IS CURRENTLY OUT OF SERVICE. THE
BUOY SOUTH OF MONTAUK HAS BEEN REMOVED FOR REPAIRS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED UNTIL A COASTAL LOW
IMPACTS THE AREA FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A
HALF TO 1 INCH OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ330-
335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JST
NEAR TERM...PFM
SHORT TERM...PFM
LONG TERM...PFM
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JST
HYDROLOGY...PFM
000
FXUS61 KOKX 241205
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
705 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD TODAY
KEEPING THE REGION IN A MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL START TO APPROACH FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW WILL REFORM OVER THE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY BEFORE
INTENSIFYING AND TRACKING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AS A 500
HPA SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST AND LOW TO MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC
DESCENT DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. EVEN WITH ENDING OF
PRECIPITATION STILL WILL HAVE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED
UNDER A LOW TO MID LEVEL INVERSION THAT WILL AT BEST END UP WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH MINIMAL
INSOLATION...EVEN WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND 6C...WILL ONLY
HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF 12KM NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
WITH MAV GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN HANDLING OF PATTERN THROUGH ABOUT
WEDNESDAY...THEN DIVERGE IN HANDLING OF COASTAL LOW FOR LATER THIS
WEEK. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH BET FIT WITH CONTINUITY ARE THE
SREF/ECMWF AND TO LESSER EXTENT THE GFS. AS A RESULT FOLLOWED A
NAM/GFS BLEND THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN THE SREF WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
STRENGTHENING OF THE EXTENSION OF THE DAMMING HIGH OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL KEEP ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDER A LOW LEVEL INVERSION INTO THURSDAY...RESULTING IN
AT BEST MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS. IT SHOULD BE DRY TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY ABSENT ANY FORCING...THEN A PASSING 500 AND 700
HPA SHORTWAVE...ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE CUTOFF LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES...SHOULD TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT IN RESPONSE TO AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN (AND MAYBE
DRIZZLE) THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES
THURSDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN...ESPECIALLY
OVERNIGHT (LIKELY POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT).
FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR
LOWS TONIGHT (ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL)...COOLER MET NUMBERS
WITH CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY (SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL)...WARMER MAV
NUMBERS WITH CLOUD COVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT (ONCE AGAIN ROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) AND COOLER MET NUMBERS THURSDAY (CLOUD COVER
AND DEVELOPING LIGHT RAIN) - ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND
USED MEX/MEX ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND FOR LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT (5 TO 9
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FROM A CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUITY PERSPECTIVE FAVORED THE ECMWF IN
THE EXTENDED. DO NOTE THAT THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE
MODELS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD SO THIS IS AT BEST A MODERATE
CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME
PROVINCES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY WEAK RIDGING SUNDAY
NIGHT...GIVING WAY TO AN APPROACHING 500/700 HPA SHORTWAVE ON
MONDAY.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...IT SHOULD BE WET FROM FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF ON SATURDAY AS LOW
PULLS OF TO THE NORTHEAST. ENOUGH COLD AIR SHOULD WORK ITS WAY IN
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM THAT THE RAIN SHOULD MIX WITH SNOW
BEFORE ENDING ACROSS MAINLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE INTERIOR. IT
SHOULD THEN BE DRY SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS MONDAY AHEAD OF ADVANCING TROUGH INTERACTING WITH
STATIONARY FRONT JUST TO OUR SOUTH.
FOR TEMPERATURES ADJUSTED A MEX/MEX ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND TO FIT
WITH THE ECMWF FORECAST...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ON SATURDAY...AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUB VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF TODAY...AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES WELL EAST RESULTING IN MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW. BIG QUESTION
WILL BE WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE CLOUDS/CEILINGS TODAY. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION KEEPING
CIGS BETWEEN 1-3KFT. CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE WE LOSE SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO LOW END VFR CONDITIONS.
A STEADY NORTHEAST WIND GRADUALLY DECREASING TO 5-10 KT RANGE
TODAY.
TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE WITH CIGS FALLING TO POSSIBLY
IFR.
MVFR/IFR CIGS HANG AROUND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND COULD LINGER
TOWARD EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
TAF COMMENTS (FORECASTER INSIGHT ON TIMING, CONFIDENCE, TRENDS AND GROUND OPS)
KEWR...EARLY IFR CIGS STARTING TO APPEAR LESS LIKELY.
CEILINGS COULD SCATTER TO VFR AFTER 18Z.
KEWR HOURLY WIND FORECAST
ALL WIND DIRECTIONS ARE TRUE...ADD 13 DEGREES FOR MAGNETIC
24/12Z 02012KT
24/13Z 02011KT
24/14Z 02010KT
24/15Z 02010KT
24/16Z 02009KT
24/17Z 02008KT
24/18Z 02008KT
24/19Z 02008KT
24/20Z 02008KT
24/21Z 03008KT
KJFK...EARLY IFR CIGS STARTING TO APPEAR LESS LIKELY.
CEILINGS COULD SCATTER TO VFR AFTER 18Z.
KLGA...CEILINGS COULD SCATTER TO VFR AFTER 18Z.
KTEB...EARLY IFR CIGS STARTING TO APPEAR LESS LIKELY.
CEILINGS COULD SCATTER TO VFR AFTER 18Z.
KHPN...EARLY IFR CIGS STARTING TO APPEAR LESS LIKELY.
CEILINGS COULD SCATTER TO VFR AFTER 18Z.
KSWF...CEILINGS COULD SCATTER TO VFR AFTER 18Z.
KISP...CEILINGS COULD SCATTER TO VFR AFTER 18Z.
KBDR...CEILINGS COULD SCATTER TO VFR AFTER 18Z.
KGON...CEILINGS COULD SCATTER TO VFR AFTER 18Z.
OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH CONTINUED DECREASING WINDS. WINDS TURN TO MORE
EASTERLY BY WEDNESDAY. LOWERING CIGS TO IFR POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN.
FRIDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN
NORTH AND WEST OF THE NYC TERMINALS AT NIGHT.
SATURDAY...VFR CEILINGS IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION/CYCLONIC FLOW.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD TODAY WITH ALLOW FOR
THE DISCONTINUANCE OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) FOR WINDS BY
LATE AFTERNOON. PRESENTLY...WINDS ON THE SOUND ARE ONLY GUSTING TO
AROUND 20 KT...BUT STILL FORECASTING MINIMAL SCA WIND GUSTS ON THE
SOUND OF 20 TO 25 KT TO PREVAIL. THE SCA ON THE OCEAN WILL REQUIRE A
CONVERSION TO SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TONIGHT AS SEAS OVER 5 FT DO
NOT SUBSIDE UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...HAVE EXTENDED THE
GENERIC SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS.
NEXT EVENT IS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WHEN A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
RESULTS IN STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. GALES ARE LIKELY FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH LATE SATURDAY ON ALL WATERS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR
STORM FORCE SATURDAY MORNING.
LASTLY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOW WATER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.
NOTE THAT THE CENTRAL SOUND BUOY IS CURRENTLY OUT OF SERVICE. THE
BUOY SOUTH OF MONTAUK HAS BEEN REMOVED FOR REPAIRS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED UNTIL A COASTAL LOW
IMPACTS THE AREA FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A
HALF TO 1 INCH OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ330-
335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JST
NEAR TERM...PFM
SHORT TERM...PFM
LONG TERM...PFM
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JST
HYDROLOGY...PFM
000
FXUS61 KOKX 241150
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
650 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD TODAY
KEEPING THE REGION IN A MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO APPROACH FROM THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW WILL REFORM OVER THE ATLANTIC ON
FRIDAY BEFORE INTENSIFYING AND TRACKING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AS A 500
HPA SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST AND LOW TO MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC
DESCENT DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. EVEN WITH ENDING OF
PRECIPITATION STILL WILL HAVE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED
UNDER A LOW TO MID LEVEL INVERSION THAT WILL AT BEST END UP WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH MINIMAL
INSOLATION...EVEN WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND 6C...WILL ONLY
HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF 12KM NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
WITH MAV GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN HANDLING OF PATTERN THROUGH ABOUT
WEDNESDAY...THEN DIVERGE IN HANDLING OF COASTAL LOW FOR LATER THIS
WEEK. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH BET FIT WITH CONTINUITY ARE THE
SREF/ECMWF AND TO LESSER EXTENT THE GFS. AS A RESULT FOLLOWED A
NAM/GFS BLEND THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN THE SREF WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
STRENGTHENING OF THE EXTENSION OF THE DAMMING HIGH OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL KEEP ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDER A LOW LEVEL INVERSION INTO THURSDAY...RESULTING IN
AT BEST MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS. IT SHOULD BE DRY TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY ABSENT ANY FORCING...THEN A PASSING 500 AND 700
HPA SHORTWAVE...ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE CUTOFF LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES...SHOULD TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT IN RESPONSE TO AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN (AND MAYBE
DRIZZLE) THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES
THURSDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN...ESPECIALLY
OVERNIGHT (LIKELY POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT).
FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR
LOWS TONIGHT (ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL)...COOLER MET NUMBERS
WITH CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY (SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL)...WARMER MAV
NUMBERS WITH CLOUD COVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT (ONCE AGAIN ROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) AND COOLER MET NUMBERS THURSDAY (CLOUD COVER
AND DEVELOPING LIGHT RAIN) - ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND
USED MEX/MEX ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND FOR LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT (5 TO 9
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FROM A CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUITY PERSPECTIVE FAVORED THE ECMWF IN
THE EXTENDED. DO NOTE THAT THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE
MODELS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD SO THIS IS AT BEST A MODERATE
CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME
PROVINCES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY WEAK RIDGING SUNDAY
NIGHT...GIVING WAY TO AN APPROACHING 500/700 HPA SHORTWAVE ON
MONDAY.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...IT SHOULD BE WET FROM FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF ON SATURDAY AS LOW
PULLS OF TO THE NORTHEAST. ENOUGH COLD AIR SHOULD WORK ITS WAY IN
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM THAT THE RAIN SHOULD MIX WITH SNOW
BEFORE ENDING ACROSS MAINLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE INTERIOR. IT
SHOULD THEN BE DRY SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS MONDAY AHEAD OF ADVANCING TROUGH INTERACTING WITH
STATIONARY FRONT JUST TO OUR SOUTH.
FOR TEMPERATURES ADJUSTED A MEX/MEX ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND TO FIT
WITH THE ECMWF FORECAST...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ON SATURDAY...AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUB VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF TODAY...AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES WELL EAST RESULTING IN MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW. BIG QUESTION
WILL BE WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE CLOUDS/CEILINGS TODAY. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION KEEPING
CIGS BETWEEN 1-3KFT. CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE WE LOSE SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO LOW END VFR CONDITIONS.
A STEADY NORTHEAST WIND GRADUALLY DECREASING TO 5-10 KT RANGE
TODAY.
TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE WITH CIGS FALLING TO POSSIBLY
IFR.
MVFR/IFR CIGS HANG AROUND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND COULD LINGER
TOWARD EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
TAF COMMENTS (FORECASTER INSIGHT ON TIMING, CONFIDENCE, TRENDS AND GROUND OPS)
KEWR...EARLY IFR CIGS STARTING TO APPEAR LESS LIKELY.
CEILINGS COULD SCATTER TO VFR AFTER 18Z.
KEWR HOURLY WIND FORECAST
ALL WIND DIRECTIONS ARE TRUE...ADD 13 DEGREES FOR MAGNETIC
24/12Z 02012KT
24/13Z 02011KT
24/14Z 02010KT
24/15Z 02010KT
24/16Z 02009KT
24/17Z 02008KT
24/18Z 02008KT
24/19Z 02008KT
24/20Z 02008KT
24/21Z 03008KT
KJFK...EARLY IFR CIGS STARTING TO APPEAR LESS LIKELY.
CEILINGS COULD SCATTER TO VFR AFTER 18Z.
KLGA...CEILINGS COULD SCATTER TO VFR AFTER 18Z.
KTEB...EARLY IFR CIGS STARTING TO APPEAR LESS LIKELY.
CEILINGS COULD SCATTER TO VFR AFTER 18Z.
KHPN...EARLY IFR CIGS STARTING TO APPEAR LESS LIKELY.
CEILINGS COULD SCATTER TO VFR AFTER 18Z.
KSWF...CEILINGS COULD SCATTER TO VFR AFTER 18Z.
KISP...CEILINGS COULD SCATTER TO VFR AFTER 18Z.
KBDR...CEILINGS COULD SCATTER TO VFR AFTER 18Z.
KGON...CEILINGS COULD SCATTER TO VFR AFTER 18Z.
OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH CONTINUED DECREASING WINDS. WINDS TURN TO MORE
EASTERLY BY WEDNESDAY. LOWERING CIGS TO IFR POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN.
FRIDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN
NORTH AND WEST OF THE NYC TERMINALS AT NIGHT.
SATURDAY...VFR CEILINGS IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION/CYCLONIC FLOW.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD TODAY WITH ALLOW FOR
THE DISCONTINUANCE OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) FOR WINDS BY
LATE AFTERNOON. PRESENTLY...WINDS ON THE SOUND ARE ONLY GUSTING TO
AROUND 20 KT...BUT STILL FORECASTING MINIMAL SCA WIND GUSTS ON THE
SOUND OF 20 TO 25 KT TO PREVAIL. THE SCA ON THE OCEAN WILL REQUIRE A
CONVERSION TO SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TONIGHT AS SEAS OVER 5 FT DO
NOT SUBSIDE UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...HAVE EXTENDED THE
GENERIC SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS.
NEXT EVENT IS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WHEN A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
RESULTS IN STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. GALES ARE LIKELY FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH LATE SATURDAY ON ALL WATERS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR
STORM FORCE SATURDAY MORNING.
LASTLY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOW WATER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.
NOTE THAT THE CENTRAL SOUND BUOY IS CURRENTLY OUT OF SERVICE. THE
BUOY SOUTH OF MONTAUK HAS BEEN REMOVED FOR REPAIRS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED UNTIL A COASTAL LOW
IMPACTS THE AREA FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A
HALF TO 1 INCH OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ330-
335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JST
NEAR TERM...PFM
SHORT TERM...PFM
LONG TERM...PFM
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JST
HYDROLOGY...PFM
000
FXUS61 KOKX 240901
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
401 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN RIDGED THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK WELL EAST OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. A COMPLEX LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH A SECONDARY LOW FORMING OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY TRACKING TO THE WESTERN
CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES BY SATURDAY MORNING...WHILE MERGING
WITH THE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS LOW WILL REMAIN
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR SOUTH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AS A 500
HPA SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST AND LOW TO MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC
DESCENT DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. EVEN WITH ENDING OF
PRECIPITATION STILL WILL HAVE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED
UNDER A LOW TO MID LEVEL INVERSION THAT WILL AT BEST END UP WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH MINIMAL
INSOLATION...EVEN WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND 6C...WILL ONLY
HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF 12KM NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
WITH MAV GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN HANDLING OF PATTERN THROUGH ABOUT
WEDNESDAY...THEN DIVERGE IN HANDLING OF COASTAL LOW FOR LATER THIS
WEEK. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH BET FIT WITH CONTINUITY ARE THE
SREF/ECMWF AND TO LESSER EXTENT THE GFS. AS A RESULT FOLLOWED A
NAM/GFS BLEND THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN THE SREF WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
STRENGTHENING OF THE EXTENSION OF THE DAMMING HIGH OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL KEEP ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDER A LOW LEVEL INVERSION INTO THURSDAY...RESULTING IN
AT BEST MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS. IT SHOULD BE DRY TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY ABSENT ANY FORCING...THEN A PASSING 500 AND 700
HPA SHORTWAVE...ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE CUTOFF LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES...SHOULD TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT IN RESPONSE TO AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN (AND MAYBE
DRIZZLE) THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES
THURSDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN...ESPECIALLY
OVERNIGHT (LIKELY POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT).
FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR
LOWS TONIGHT (ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL)...COOLER MET NUMBERS
WITH CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY (SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL)...WARMER MAV
NUMBERS WITH CLOUD COVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT (ONCE AGAIN ROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) AND COOLER MET NUMBERS THURSDAY (CLOUD COVER
AND DEVELOPING LIGHT RAIN) - ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND
USED MEX/MEX ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND FOR LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT (5 TO 9
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FROM A CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUITY PERSPECTIVE FAVORED THE ECMWF IN
THE EXTENDED. DO NOTE THAT THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE
MODELS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD SO THIS IS AT BEST A MODERATE
CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME
PROVINCES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY WEAK RIDGING SUNDAY
NIGHT...GIVING WAY TO AN APPROACHING 500/700 HPA SHORTWAVE ON
MONDAY.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...IT SHOULD BE WET FROM FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF ON SATURDAY AS LOW
PULLS OF TO THE NORTHEAST. ENOUGH COLD AIR SHOULD WORK ITS WAY IN
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM THAT THE RAIN SHOULD MIX WITH SNOW
BEFORE ENDING ACROSS MAINLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE INTERIOR. IT
SHOULD THEN BE DRY SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS MONDAY AHEAD OF ADVANCING TROUGH INTERACTING WITH
STATIONARY FRONT JUST TO OUR SOUTH.
FOR TEMPERATURES ADJUSTED A MEX/MEX ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND TO FIT
WITH THE ECMWF FORECAST...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ON SATURDAY...AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. INTERMITTENT
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAIN COMES TO
AN END AROUND 12Z TUESDAY WITH ANY IFR CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR. SKIES
WILL REMAIN BKN-OVC THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...AND SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM
MVFR TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY TO JUST HOW QUICKLY SKIES CLEAR OUT.
NORTHEAST WINDS DECREASING TO 5-10 KT RANGE THROUGHOUT TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH CONTINUED DECREASING WINDS. WINDS TURN TO
MORE EASTERLY. LOWERING CIGS TO IFR POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN.
FRIDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN
NORTH AND WEST OF THE NYC TERMINALS AT NIGHT.
SATURDAY...VFR CEILINGS IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION/CYCLONIC FLOW.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD TODAY WITH ALLOW FOR
THE DISCONTINUANCE OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) FOR WINDS BY
LATE AFTERNOON. PRESENTLY...WINDS ON THE SOUND ARE ONLY GUSTING TO
AROUND 20 KT...BUT STILL FORECASTING MINIMAL SCA WIND GUSTS ON THE
SOUND OF 20 TO 25 KT TO PREVAIL. THE SCA ON THE OCEAN WILL REQUIRE A
CONVERSION TO SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TONIGHT AS SEAS OVER 5 FT DO
NOT SUBSIDE UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...HAVE EXTENDED THE
GENERIC SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS.
NEXT EVENT IS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WHEN A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
RESULTS IN STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. GALES ARE LIKELY FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH LATE SATURDAY ON ALL WATERS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR
STORM FORCE SATURDAY MORNING.
LASTLY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOW WATER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.
NOTE THAT THE CENTRAL SOUND BUOY IS CURRENTLY OUT OF SERVICE. THE
BUOY SOUTH OF MONTAUK HAS BEEN REMOVED FOR REPAIRS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED UNTIL A COASTAL LOW
IMPACTS THE AREA FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A
HALF TO 1 INCH OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ330-
335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/HYDROLOGY...MALOIT
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JST
000
FXUS61 KOKX 240602
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
102 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MOVES EAST...ALLOWING A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE UP THE US EAST COAST. THIS LOW
PASSES EAST OF CAPE COD TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A POTENTIALLY STRONG COASTAL LOW MAY IMPACT THE
REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THERE IS VERY LITTLE
INSTABILITY IN THE LOW LEVELS WHERE MOISTURE IS ABUNDANT HOWEVER.
GIVEN THESE WEAK AND RELATIVELY SHALLOW DYNAMICS...EXPECT THE MAIN
P-TYPE TO BE DRIZZLE FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES
RAIN MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD END UP WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH SOLID
CLOUD COVER AND NE WINDS INHIBITING ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PREFERRED LOW TRACK TAKES THE WEAK SYSTEM EAST OF CAPE COD BY
LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY. THE FLOW IN GENERAL WEAKENS A BIT...BUT
DOES NOT REALLY CHANGE FROM NORTHEASTERLY. THERE IS ALSO NO
APPRECIABLE COLD FRONT TO SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THEREFORE...SKIES WILL PROBABLY REMAIN CLOUDY INTO AT LEAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW FULLY MIXED VALUES...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY...WITH WHAT IS LIKELY
TO BE THE BEST WEATHER DAY OF THE WEEK. HIGHS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
60...ESPECIALLY IF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL.
POTENT COLORADO LOW SETS THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE END OF THE WEEK.
THE PARENT LOW LOOKS TO TAKE A ST. LAWRENCE/GREAT LAKES TRACK INTO
EASTERN CANADA. A SECONDARY COLD LOW ALOFT DIVES IN BEHIND THE
INITIAL TROUGH AND ALLOWS IT BECAME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND SPAWN A
COASTAL LOW LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE EC DEVELOPS THE SURFACE
LOW JUST EAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH
FARTHER WEST WITH A DOUBLE BARRELED SFC LOW OVER NYC/LI. BOTTOM
LINE IS LOTS OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER THE OH VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES
THANKSGIVING NIGHT. SPOTTY PRECIP OVER THE AREA INITIALLY IN THE
EVENING SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE NIGHT AS THE
CLOSED LOW APPROACHES AND INDUCES SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT
NEARBY...AS WELL AS THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INVERTED TROUGH NW OF
INCIPIENT LOW PRESSURE E OF THE VA CAPES. THE SECONDARY LOW WILL
RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NE FROM THE LOCAL AREA INTO EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND ON FRI...WITH A BRISK W FLOW TAKING HOLD IN THE AFTERNOON
AFTER SOME MORNING RAINFALL...AND LASTING INTO SAT. POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WINDS MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA EXISTS ON SAT IF
INGREDIENTS OF STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND LARGE PRESSURE RISES TO THE REAR OF THE LOW MESH. CYCLONIC
FLOW AND ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW
WILL PRESENT LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY SOME SNOW
SHOWERS AS WELL LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING NORTH/WEST
OF NYC.
BRISK W FLOW SHOULD LESSEN ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
SLIDES ACROSS...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM ON MON.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. INTERMITTENT
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAIN COMES TO
AN END AROUND 12Z TUESDAY WITH ANY IFR CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR. SKIES
WILL REMAIN BKN-OVC THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...AND SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM
MVFR TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY TO JUST HOW QUICKLY SKIES CLEAR OUT.
NORTHEAST WINDS DECREASING TO 5-10 KT RANGE THROUGHOUT TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH CONTINUED DECREASING WINDS. WINDS TURN TO
MORE EASTERLY. LOWERING CIGS TO IFR POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN.
FRIDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN
NORTH AND WEST OF THE NYC TERMINALS AT NIGHT.
SATURDAY...VFR CEILINGS IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION/CYCLONIC FLOW.
&&
.MARINE...
STRONG NE FLOW RESULTING IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON
ALL WATERS. SLOW MOVING HIGH COUPLED WITH A WEAK ATLANTIC STORM
TRACK WILL KEEP THIS WIND REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
MORNING. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY...LONG ISLAND SOUND AND PROTECTED
BAYS WILL BE THE FIRST TO DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA. LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON OCEAN SEAS FALLING BELOW 5 FT BY LATE IN THE DAY
TUESDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED HERE.
SUB SCA ON ALL WATERS BY WEDNESDAY.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING IN
STRENGTHENING S-SW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE.
GALES ARE LIKELY ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN FROM FRI AFTERNOON INTO SAT
EVENING...AS THE LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS WHILE LIFTING NE FROM THE LOCAL
AREA INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
LINGERING SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN FOLLOW FOR SAT NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF PRECIP REGIONWIDE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
A MORE SIGNIFICANT QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION EVENT IS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KOKX 240310
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1010 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MOVES EAST...ALLOWING A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE UP THE US EAST COAST. THIS LOW
PASSES EAST OF CAPE COD TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A POTENTIALLY STRONG COASTAL LOW MAY IMPACT THE
REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THERE IS VERY LITTLE
INSTABILITY IN THE LOW LEVELS WHERE MOISTURE IS ABUNDANT HOWEVER.
GIVEN THESE WEAK AND RELATIVELY SHALLOW DYNAMICS...EXPECT THE MAIN
P-TYPE TO BE DRIZZLE FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES
RAIN MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD END UP WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH SOLID
CLOUD COVER AND NE WINDS INHIBITING ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PREFERRED LOW TRACK TAKES THE WEAK SYSTEM EAST OF CAPE COD BY
LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY. THE FLOW IN GENERAL WEAKENS A BIT...BUT
DOES NOT REALLY CHANGE FROM NORTHEASTERLY. THERE IS ALSO NO
APPRECIABLE COLD FRONT TO SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THEREFORE...SKIES WILL PROBABLY REMAIN CLOUDY INTO AT LEAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW FULLY MIXED VALUES...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY...WITH WHAT IS LIKELY
TO BE THE BEST WEATHER DAY OF THE WEEK. HIGHS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
60...ESPECIALLY IF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL.
POTENT COLORADO LOW SETS THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE END OF THE WEEK.
THE PARENT LOW LOOKS TO TAKE A ST. LAWRENCE/GREAT LAKES TRACK INTO
EASTERN CANADA. A SECONDARY COLD LOW ALOFT DIVES IN BEHIND THE
INITIAL TROUGH AND ALLOWS IT BECAME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND SPAWN A
COASTAL LOW LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE EC DEVELOPS THE SURFACE
LOW JUST EAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH
FARTHER WEST WITH A DOUBLE BARRELED SFC LOW OVER NYC/LI. BOTTOM
LINE IS LOTS OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER THE OH VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES
THANKSGIVING NIGHT. SPOTTY PRECIP OVER THE AREA INITIALLY IN THE
EVENING SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE NIGHT AS THE
CLOSED LOW APPROACHES AND INDUCES SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT
NEARBY...AS WELL AS THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INVERTED TROUGH NW OF
INCIPIENT LOW PRESSURE E OF THE VA CAPES. THE SECONDARY LOW WILL
RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NE FROM THE LOCAL AREA INTO EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND ON FRI...WITH A BRISK W FLOW TAKING HOLD IN THE AFTERNOON
AFTER SOME MORNING RAINFALL...AND LASTING INTO SAT. POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WINDS MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA EXISTS ON SAT IF
INGREDIENTS OF STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND LARGE PRESSURE RISES TO THE REAR OF THE LOW MESH. CYCLONIC
FLOW AND ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW
WILL PRESENT LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY SOME SNOW
SHOWERS AS WELL LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING NORTH/WEST
OF NYC.
BRISK W FLOW SHOULD LESSEN ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
SLIDES ACROSS...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM ON MON.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WELL TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY.
RAIN ENTERING AREA IS BREAKING APART SO RAIN WILL BE INTERMITTENT
AND WILL NOT RESULT IN ANY SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED VSBYS. HOWEVER...IFR
CIGS CAN STILL BE EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN ENDS
BY AROUND 12Z TUESDAY WITH CIGS LIFTING OUT OF IFR. CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY BKN-OVC COVERAGE AND LIFT FURTHER THROUGH AFTERNOON
FROM LOW END MVFR TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST.
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAST THE CEILINGS INCREASE OUT OF IFR AND MVFR ON
TUESDAY AND WHETHER OR NOT MVFR CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN MVFR CEILINGS REMAINING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS DECREASING TO 5-10 KT RANGE THROUGHOUT TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH CONTINUED DECREASING
WINDS. WINDS TURN TO MORE EASTERLY BY WEDNESDAY. LOWERING CIGS TO
IFR POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN.
FRIDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN
NORTH AND WEST OF THE NYC TERMINALS AT NIGHT.
SATURDAY...VFR CEILINGS IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION/CYCLONIC FLOW.
&&
.MARINE...
STRONG NE FLOW RESULTING IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON
ALL WATERS. SLOW MOVING HIGH COUPLED WITH A WEAK ATLANTIC STORM
TRACK WILL KEEP THIS WIND REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
MORNING. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY...LONG ISLAND SOUND AND PROTECTED
BAYS WILL BE THE FIRST TO DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA. LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON OCEAN SEAS FALLING BELOW 5 FT BY LATE IN THE DAY
TUESDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED HERE.
SUB SCA ON ALL WATERS BY WEDNESDAY.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING IN
STRENGTHENING S-SW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE.
GALES ARE LIKELY ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN FROM FRI AFTERNOON INTO SAT
EVENING...AS THE LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS WHILE LIFTING NE FROM THE LOCAL
AREA INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
LINGERING SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN FOLLOW FOR SAT NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF PRECIP REGIONWIDE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
A MORE SIGNIFICANT QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION EVENT IS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BS
NEAR TERM...BS/PW
SHORT TERM...BS
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...AL/JM
MARINE...BG/BS
HYDROLOGY...BS
000
FXUS61 KOKX 240207
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
907 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MOVES EAST...ALLOWING A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE UP THE US EAST COAST. THIS LOW
PASSES EAST OF CAPE COD TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A POTENTIALLY STRONG COASTAL LOW MAY IMPACT THE
REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THERE IS VERY LITTLE
INSTABILITY IN THE LOW LEVELS WHERE MOISTURE IS ABUNDANT HOWEVER.
GIVEN THESE WEAK AND RELATIVELY SHALLOW DYNAMICS...EXPECT THE MAIN
P-TYPE TO BE DRIZZLE FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES
RAIN MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD END UP WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH SOLID
CLOUD COVER AND NE WINDS INHIBITING ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PREFERRED LOW TRACK TAKES THE WEAK SYSTEM EAST OF CAPE COD BY
LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY. THE FLOW IN GENERAL WEAKENS A BIT...BUT
DOES NOT REALLY CHANGE FROM NORTHEASTERLY. THERE IS ALSO NO
APPRECIABLE COLD FRONT TO SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THEREFORE...SKIES WILL PROBABLY REMAIN CLOUDY INTO AT LEAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW FULLY MIXED VALUES...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY...WITH WHAT IS LIKELY
TO BE THE BEST WEATHER DAY OF THE WEEK. HIGHS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
60...ESPECIALLY IF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL.
POTENT COLORADO LOW SETS THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE END OF THE WEEK.
THE PARENT LOW LOOKS TO TAKE A ST. LAWRENCE/GREAT LAKES TRACK INTO
EASTERN CANADA. A SECONDARY COLD LOW ALOFT DIVES IN BEHIND THE
INITIAL TROUGH AND ALLOWS IT BECAME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND SPAWN A
COASTAL LOW LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE EC DEVELOPS THE SURFACE
LOW JUST EAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH
FARTHER WEST WITH A DOUBLE BARRELED SFC LOW OVER NYC/LI. BOTTOM
LINE IS LOTS OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER THE OH VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES
THANKSGIVING NIGHT. SPOTTY PRECIP OVER THE AREA INITIALLY IN THE
EVENING SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE NIGHT AS THE
CLOSED LOW APPROACHES AND INDUCES SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT
NEARBY...AS WELL AS THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INVERTED TROUGH NW OF
INCIPIENT LOW PRESSURE E OF THE VA CAPES. THE SECONDARY LOW WILL
RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NE FROM THE LOCAL AREA INTO EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND ON FRI...WITH A BRISK W FLOW TAKING HOLD IN THE AFTERNOON
AFTER SOME MORNING RAINFALL...AND LASTING INTO SAT. POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WINDS MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA EXISTS ON SAT IF
INGREDIENTS OF STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND LARGE PRESSURE RISES TO THE REAR OF THE LOW MESH. CYCLONIC
FLOW AND ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW
WILL PRESENT LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY SOME SNOW
SHOWERS AS WELL LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING NORTH/WEST
OF NYC.
BRISK W FLOW SHOULD LESSEN ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
SLIDES ACROSS...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM ON MON.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WELL TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY. RAIN
ENDS BY AROUND 12Z TUESDAY WITH CIGS OF MOSTLY BKN-OVC CLOUDS
INCREASING THROUGH AFTERNOON FROM LOW END MVFR TO VFR.
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAST THE CEILINGS INCREASE ON TUESDAY AND WHETHER
OR NOT MVFR CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CEILINGS
REMAINING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS DECREASING TO 5-10 KT RANGE THROUGHOUT TUESDAY.
TAF COMMENTS (FORECASTER INSIGHT ON TIMING, CONFIDENCE, TRENDS AND GROUND OPS)
KEWR...CIGS MAY TAKE AN EXTRA HOUR TO LIFT OUT OF IFR RANGE
TUESDAY MORNING. UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE AFTER 14Z FOR MVFR
CONDS.
KJFK...CIGS MAY TAKE AN EXTRA HOUR TO LIFT OUT OF IFR RANGE
TUESDAY MORNING. UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z FOR MVFR
CONDS.
KLGA...CIGS MAY TAKE AN EXTRA HOUR TO LIFT OUT OF IFR RANGE
TUESDAY MORNING. UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z FOR MVFR
CONDS.
KTEB...CIGS MAY TAKE AN EXTRA HOUR TO LIFT OUT OF IFR RANGE
TUESDAY MORNING. UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE AFTER 14Z FOR MVFR
CONDS.
KHPN...CIGS MAY TAKE AN EXTRA HOUR TO LIFT OUT OF IFR RANGE
TUESDAY MORNING. UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z FOR MVFR
CONDS.
KSWF...CIGS MAY TAKE AN EXTRA HOUR TO LIFT OUT OF IFR RANGE
TUESDAY MORNING. UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR MVFR CONDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
KISP...CIGS MAY TAKE AN EXTRA HOUR TO LIFT OUT OF IFR RANGE
TUESDAY MORNING. UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR MVFR CONDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
KBDR...CIGS MAY TAKE AN EXTRA HOUR TO LIFT OUT OF IFR RANGE.
TUESDAY MORNING. UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR MVFR CONDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
KGON...CIGS MAY TAKE AN EXTRA HOUR TO LIFT OUT OF IFR RANGE
TUESDAY MORNING. UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR MVFR CONDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY AFT-WED...VFR WITH CONTINUED DECREASING WINDS. WINDS TURN TO
MORE EASTERLY BY WEDNESDAY. LOWERING CIGS TO IFR POSSIBLY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN.
FRIDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN
NORTH AND WEST OF THE NYC TERMINALS AT NIGHT. SATURDAY...VFR
CEILINGS IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION/CYCLONIC FLOW.
&&
.MARINE...
STRONG NE FLOW RESULTING IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON
ALL WATERS. SLOW MOVING HIGH COUPLED WITH A WEAK ATLANTIC STORM
TRACK WILL KEEP THIS WIND REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
MORNING. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY...LONG ISLAND SOUND AND PROTECTED
BAYS WILL BE THE FIRST TO DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA. LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON OCEAN SEAS FALLING BELOW 5 FT BY LATE IN THE DAY
TUESDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED HERE.
SUB SCA ON ALL WATERS BY WEDNESDAY.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING IN
STRENGTHENING S-SW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE.
GALES ARE LIKELY ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN FROM FRI AFTERNOON INTO SAT
EVENING...AS THE LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS WHILE LIFTING NE FROM THE LOCAL
AREA INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
LINGERING SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN FOLLOW FOR SAT NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF PRECIP REGIONWIDE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
A MORE SIGNIFICANT QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION EVENT IS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BS
NEAR TERM...BS/PW
SHORT TERM...BS
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...AL/JM
MARINE...BG/BS
HYDROLOGY...BS
000
FXUS61 KOKX 240007
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
707 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MOVES EAST...ALLOWING A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE UP THE US EAST COAST. THIS LOW
PASSES EAST OF CAPE COD TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A POTENTIALLY STRONG COASTAL LOW MAY IMPACT THE
REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT OVER MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY IN THE LOW LEVELS WHERE MOISTURE
IS ABUNDANT HOWEVER. GIVEN THESE WEAK AND RELATIVELY SHALLOW
DYNAMICS...EXPECT THE MAIN P-TYPE TO BE DRIZZLE FOR MOST OF
TONIGHT. RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS INDICATING THAT THERE IS A
LOT OF VIRGA ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL TAKE AWHILE LONGER FOR THE
COLUMN TO MOISTEN COMPLETELY...AND EXCEPT FOR EASTERN LONG
ISLAND...IT WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW HOURS BEFORE STEADY RAINS BEGIN
TO FALL.
THE 00Z EC INITIALIZED THE BEST IN TERMS OF PRECIP DISTRIBUTION.
THIS WAS THE MODEL OF CHOICE FOR THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES THIS FORECAST IS LARGELY
SIMILAR. MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO TIMING OF PRECIP ONSET...AND TO
LOWER QPF IN GENERAL GIVEN DRIZZLE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD END UP WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH SOLID
CLOUD COVER AND NE WINDS INHIBITING ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PREFERRED LOW TRACK TAKES THE WEAK SYSTEM EAST OF CAPE COD BY
LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY. THE FLOW IN GENERAL WEAKENS A BIT...BUT
DOES NOT REALLY CHANGE FROM NORTHEASTERLY. THERE IS ALSO NO
APPRECIABLE COLD FRONT TO SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THEREFORE...SKIES WILL PROBABLY REMAIN CLOUDY INTO AT LEAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW FULLY MIXED VALUES...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY...WITH WHAT IS LIKELY
TO BE THE BEST WEATHER DAY OF THE WEEK. HIGHS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
60...ESPECIALLY IF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL.
POTENT COLORADO LOW SETS THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE END OF THE WEEK.
THE PARENT LOW LOOKS TO TAKE A ST. LAWRENCE/GREAT LAKES TRACK INTO
EASTERN CANADA. A SECONDARY COLD LOW ALOFT DIVES IN BEHIND THE
INITIAL TROUGH AND ALLOWS IT BECAME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND SPAWN A
COASTAL LOW LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE EC DEVELOPS THE SURFACE
LOW JUST EAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH
FARTHER WEST WITH A DOUBLE BARRELED SFC LOW OVER NYC/LI. BOTTOM
LINE IS LOTS OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER THE OH VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES
THANKSGIVING NIGHT. SPOTTY PRECIP OVER THE AREA INITIALLY IN THE
EVENING SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE NIGHT AS THE
CLOSED LOW APPROACHES AND INDUCES SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT
NEARBY...AS WELL AS THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INVERTED TROUGH NW OF
INCIPIENT LOW PRESSURE E OF THE VA CAPES. THE SECONDARY LOW WILL
RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NE FROM THE LOCAL AREA INTO EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND ON FRI...WITH A BRISK W FLOW TAKING HOLD IN THE AFTERNOON
AFTER SOME MORNING RAINFALL...AND LASTING INTO SAT. POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WINDS MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA EXISTS ON SAT IF
INGREDIENTS OF STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND LARGE PRESSURE RISES TO THE REAR OF THE LOW MESH. CYCLONIC
FLOW AND ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW
WILL PRESENT LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY SOME SNOW
SHOWERS AS WELL LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING NORTH/WEST
OF NYC.
BRISK W FLOW SHOULD LESSEN ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
SLIDES ACROSS...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM ON MON.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE AREA OF RAIN MOVING INTO THE REGION IS BREAKING UP WITH
ENTRY...THEREFORE ANY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL BE INTERMITTENT
INITIALLY. AS THE RAIN BECOMES STEADIER LATER THIS EVENING BY
3-4Z...CEILINGS WILL DROP TO IFR RANGE. THE INITIAL STARTING TIME
BEARS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS CIGS HOVER NEAR THE IFR/MVFR THRESHOLD.
IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AN HOUR BEFORE OR AFTER TIME IN TAF.
CIGS/VSBY INCREASE WITH THE END OF RAINFALL BY AROUND 12Z TUE TO
MVFR RANGE UNTIL LATE MORNING WHEN VFR CIGS RETURN.
WINDS TO REMAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST...020 TO 050...THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT. GUSTS UP TO 21 KT FOR KLGA THROUGH 04Z
BUT THERE IS ALSO UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS AND WILL BE INTERMITTENT.
OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY AFT-WED...VFR WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING WINDS. WINDS TURN
TO MORE EASTERLY BY WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN.
FRIDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN
NORTH AND WEST OF THE NYC TERMINALS AT NIGHT. SATURDAY...VFR
CEILINGS IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION/CYCLONIC FLOW.
&&
.MARINE...
STRONG NE FLOW RESULTING IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON
ALL WATERS. SLOW MOVING HIGH COUPLED WITH A WEAK ATLANTIC STORM
TRACK WILL KEEP THIS WIND REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
MORNING. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY...LONG ISLAND SOUND AND PROTECTED
BAYS WILL BE THE FIRST TO DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA. LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON OCEAN SEAS FALLING BELOW 5 FT BY LATE IN THE DAY
TUESDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED HERE.
SUB SCA ON ALL WATERS BY WEDNESDAY.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING IN
STRENGTHENING S-SW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE.
GALES ARE LIKELY ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN FROM FRI AFTERNOON INTO SAT
EVENING...AS THE LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS WHILE LIFTING NE FROM THE LOCAL
AREA INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
LINGERING SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN FOLLOW FOR SAT NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF PRECIP REGIONWIDE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
A MORE SIGNIFICANT QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION EVENT IS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BS
NEAR TERM...BS
SHORT TERM...BS
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...AL/JM
MARINE...BG/BS
HYDROLOGY...BS
000
FXUS61 KOKX 232053
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
353 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MOVES EAST...ALLOWING A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE UP THE US EAST COAST. THIS LOW
PASSES EAST OF CAPE COD TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A POTENTIALLY STRONG COASTAL LOW MAY IMPACT THE
REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT OVER MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY IN THE LOW LEVELS WHERE MOISTURE
IS ABUNDANT HOWEVER. GIVEN THESE WEAK AND RELATIVELY SHALLOW
DYNAMICS...EXPECT THE MAIN P-TYPE TO BE DRIZZLE FOR MOST OF
TONIGHT. RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS INDICATING THAT THERE IS A
LOT OF VIRGA ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL TAKE AWHILE LONGER FOR THE
COLUMN TO MOISTEN COMPLETELY...AND EXCEPT FOR EASTERN LONG
ISLAND...IT WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW HOURS BEFORE STEADY RAINS BEGIN
TO FALL.
THE 00Z EC INITIALIZED THE BEST IN TERMS OF PRECIP DISTRIBUTION.
THIS WAS THE MODEL OF CHOICE FOR THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES THIS FORECAST IS LARGELY
SIMILAR. MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO TIMING OF PRECIP ONSET...AND TO
LOWER QPF IN GENERAL GIVEN DRIZZLE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD END UP WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH SOLID
CLOUD COVER AND NE WINDS INHIBITING ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PREFERRED LOW TRACK TAKES THE WEAK SYSTEM EAST OF CAPE COD BY
LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY. THE FLOW IN GENERAL WEAKENS A BIT...BUT
DOES NOT REALLY CHANGE FROM NORTHEASTERLY. THERE IS ALSO NO
APPRECIABLE COLD FRONT TO SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THEREFORE...SKIES WILL PROBABLY REMAIN CLOUDY INTO AT LEAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW FULLY MIXED VALUES...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY...WITH WHAT IS LIKELY
TO BE THE BEST WEATHER DAY OF THE WEEK. HIGHS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
60...ESPECIALLY IF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL.
POTENT COLORADO LOW SETS THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE END OF THE WEEK.
THE PARENT LOW LOOKS TO TAKE A ST. LAWRENCE/GREAT LAKES TRACK INTO
EASTERN CANADA. A SECONDARY COLD LOW ALOFT DIVES IN BEHIND THE
INITIAL TROUGH AND ALLOWS IT BECAME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND SPAWN A
COASTAL LOW LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE EC DEVELOPS THE SURFACE
LOW JUST EAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH
FARTHER WEST WITH A DOUBLE BARRELED SFC LOW OVER NYC/LI. BOTTOM
LINE IS LOTS OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER THE OH VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES
THANKSGIVING NIGHT. SPOTTY PRECIP OVER THE AREA INITIALLY IN THE
EVENING SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE NIGHT AS THE
CLOSED LOW APPROACHES AND INDUCES SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT
NEARBY...AS WELL AS THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INVERTED TROUGH NW OF
INCIPIENT LOW PRESSURE E OF THE VA CAPES. THE SECONDARY LOW WILL
RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NE FROM THE LOCAL AREA INTO EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND ON FRI...WITH A BRISK W FLOW TAKING HOLD IN THE AFTERNOON
AFTER SOME MORNING RAINFALL...AND LASTING INTO SAT. POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WINDS MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA EXISTS ON SAT IF
INGREDIENTS OF STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND LARGE PRESSURE RISES TO THE REAR OF THE LOW MESH. CYCLONIC
FLOW AND ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW
WILL PRESENT LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY SOME SNOW
SHOWERS AS WELL LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING NORTH/WEST
OF NYC.
BRISK W FLOW SHOULD LESSEN ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
SLIDES ACROSS...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM ON MON.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFT. CEILINGS TO DROP
BELOW 2 KFT BY 20Z. ANY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL BE SPOTTY WITH BRIEF
EPISODES OF MVFR VSBYS...BUT PRIMARILY AFTER 00Z. DIFFICULT
FORECAST TOWARD 00Z AS CEILINGS APPROACH IFR. CEILINGS WILL BE
RIGHT AROUND THE UPPER END OF THE IFR CATEGORY OR LOW END OF THE
MVFR CATEGORY.
WINDS TO REMAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST...020 TO 050...THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT NYC TERMINALS THROUGH 20Z.
TAF COMMENTS (FORECASTER INSIGHT ON TIMING, CONFIDENCE, TRENDS AND GROUND OPS)
KEWR...AFTER 00Z...PREVAILING MVFR...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS RIGHT AROUND THE 1 KFT.
KEWR HOURLY WIND FORECAST
ALL WIND DIRECTIONS ARE TRUE...ADD 13 DEGREES FOR MAGNETIC
23/18Z 03012KT
23/19Z 03012KT
23/20Z 03011KT
23/21Z 03011KT
23/22Z 03011KT
23/23Z 03011KT
24/00Z 03011KT
24/01Z 03011KT
24/02Z 03011KT
24/03Z 03011KT
24/04Z 03010KT
24/05Z 03010KT
KJFK...AFTER 23Z...PREVAILING IFR...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS RIGHT AROUND THE 1 KFT.
KLGA...AFTER 00Z...PREVAILING MVFR...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS RIGHT AROUND THE 1 KFT.
KTEB...AFTER 00Z...PREVAILING MVFR...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS RIGHT AROUND THE 1 KFT.
KHPN...AFTER 23Z...PREVAILING IFR...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS RIGHT AROUND THE 1 KFT.
KSWF...AFTER 00Z...CEILINGS WILL VARY BETWEEN IFR AND
MVFR...AMENDMENTS LIKELY.
KISP...AFTER 00Z...CEILINGS WILL VARY BETWEEN IFR AND
MVFR...AMENDMENTS LIKELY.
KBDR...AFTER 00Z...CEILINGS WILL VARY BETWEEN IFR AND
MVFR...AMENDMENTS LIKELY.
KGON...AFTER 23Z...CEILINGS WILL VARY BETWEEN IFR AND
MVFR...AMENDMENTS LIKELY.
OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY AFT-WED...VFR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN.
FRIDAY...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN
NORTH AND WEST OF THE NYC TERMINALS AT NIGHT.
SATURDAY...VFR CEILINGS IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION/CYCLONIC FLOW.
&&
.MARINE...
STRONG NE FLOW RESULTING IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON
ALL WATERS. SLOW MOVING HIGH COUPLED WITH A WEAK ATLANTIC STORM
TRACK WILL KEEP THIS WIND REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
MORNING. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY...LONG ISLAND SOUND AND PROTECTED
BAYS WILL BE THE FIRST TO DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA. LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON OCEAN SEAS FALLING BELOW 5 FT BY LATE IN THE DAY
TUESDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED HERE.
SUB SCA ON ALL WATERS BY WEDNESDAY.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING IN
STRENGTHENING S-SW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE.
GALES ARE LIKELY ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN FROM FRI AFTERNOON INTO SAT
EVENING...AS THE LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS WHILE LIFTING NE FROM THE LOCAL
AREA INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
LINGERING SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN FOLLOW FOR SAT NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF PRECIP REGIONWIDE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
A MORE SIGNIFICANT QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION EVENT IS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BS
NEAR TERM...BS
SHORT TERM...BS
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...BG/BS
HYDROLOGY...BS
000
FXUS61 KOKX 231805
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
105 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL BRING A MOIST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE TRI-STATE
AREA. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF CAPE COD ON TUESDAY AND
ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WEATHER. COLDER AND BREEZY
WEATHER MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO DECREASE POPS FOR WESTERN
SECTIONS AS NEW MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS CURRENT RADAR SUPPORTS
ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. INCREASED POPS TO THE EAST AS THE
SHOWERS OVER THE TWIN FORKS AND SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT HAVE
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...ALSO SEE SOME THETA E ADVECTION AT H850
IN THE NAM AND GFS...INDICATING ADVECTION OF MOISTURE. WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE UPPER JET REMAINING OFFSHORE...DO NOT EXPECT
FORCING TO BE ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.
TEMPS DO NOT MOVE MUCH TODAY DO TO THE LACK ON HEATING AND THE
MODERATELY BREEZY CONDITIONS OFF THE ATLANTIC.
BOTTOM LINE - A RAW NOVEMBER DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST AND TRACKS
NORTHEAST TO A POSITION EAST OF CAPE COD BY LATE TUESDAY. THIS IS
BEING DRIVEN BY SHORT WAVE ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
THIS MORNING AS SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS SHORTWAVE
MOVES THOUGH THE LONG WAVE RIDGE ON THE EAST COAST AND CLEARS OUT THE
OLD CUT OFFS THAT HAVE BEEN SITTING AROUND (CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN
CT AND EASTERN KY).
AS A RESULT OF THE WEAK UPPER FORCING, DO NOT BELIEVE THE
OPERATIONAL GFS DEVELOPMENT OF A 1006 HPA ON TUESDAY EAST OF CAPE
COD. PREFER THE WEAKER (OLD) ECMWF RUN. THE LOCAL IMPORTANCE OF THIS
CHOICE IS TUESDAY`S CLOUDS AND RESULTING TEMPS. THE WEAKER SOLUTION
KEEPS WINDS MORE EASTERLY ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY
WITH COOL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT PCPN - AT LEAST IN THE MORNING.
THE ABOVE ALSO IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WHICH, WITH
UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY BEING HIGH IN TERMS OF CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPS, IS BEST TO STAY WITH THAT FORECAST AND NOT FLIP/FLOP.
TEMPS RANGE IS SMALL THE NEXT 48 HOURS DUE TO CLOUDINESS AND
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS GOOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS WERE RAISED
SLIGHTLY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED DESCRIBES THE PERIOD. CLOSED LOW MOVES FROM CHICAGO
THURSDAY AM TO NEAR LOCAL AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING AS IT DEEPENS.
LATEST GFS (00Z)IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE OLD (12Z) ECMWF WITH THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST. NCEP GLOBAL ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM SHOW
SURPRISINGLY LITTLE SPREAD WITH THIS SYSTEM. THUS, THE LONG TERM
APPEARS TO HAVE MORE FORECAST CONFIDENCE THAN THE SHORT TERM.
AT THE SURFACE, WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY
REDEVELOPS ON THE TRIPLE POINT ON FRIDAY AM OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND
THEN DEEPS RAPIDLY OVER NEW ENGLAND.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...DIFFLUENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
ON-SHORE SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW MEAN CLOUDS WITH AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FOR THANKSGIVING.
THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW EARLY FRIDAY (WITH A FEW
HUNDRED JOULES OF ELEVATED CAPE ON THE GFS SOUNDINGS) SUPPORTS THE
POSSIBILITY OF MORE RARE NOVEMBER THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ALONG WITH
HEAVIER RAIN AND STRONG EASTERLY WINDS MEANS A RATHER UNPLEASANT
TIME FOR EARLY MORNING SHOPPERS.
ON SATURDAY...WHILE UPPER LOW TRACKS OVER THE REGION, THE DEEPER
(COLDER) GFS PROFILES KEEP ANY MIXED PCPN INLAND. WINDY TOO ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEEP LOW. BASED ON GFS PROFILES...THERE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR WIND ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFT. CEILINGS TO DROP
BELOW 2 KFT BY 20Z. ANY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL BE SPOTTY WITH BRIEF
EPISODES OF MVFR VSBYS...BUT PRIMARILY AFTER 00Z. DIFFICULT
FORECAST TOWARD 00Z AS CEILINGS APPROACH IFR. CEILINGS WILL BE
RIGHT AROUND THE UPPER END OF THE IFR CATEGORY OR LOW END OF THE
MVFR CATEGORY.
WINDS TO REMAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST...020 TO 050...THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT NYC TERMINALS THROUGH 20Z.
TAF COMMENTS (FORECASTER INSIGHT ON TIMING, CONFIDENCE, TRENDS AND GROUND OPS)
KEWR...AFTER 00Z...CEILINGS WILL VARY BETWEEN IFR AND
MVFR...AMENDMENTS LIKELY. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH 20Z.
KEWR HOURLY WIND FORECAST
ALL WIND DIRECTIONS ARE TRUE...ADD 13 DEGREES FOR MAGNETIC
23/16Z 03012KT
23/17Z 03012KT
23/18Z 03012KT
23/19Z 03012KT
23/20Z 03012KT
23/21Z 03012KT
23/22Z 03012KT
23/23Z 03011KT
24/00Z 03010KT
24/01Z 03010KT
24/02Z 03010KT
24/03Z 03010KT
KJFK...AFTER 23Z...CEILINGS WILL VARY BETWEEN IFR AND
MVFR...AMENDMENTS LIKELY. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH 20Z.
KLGA...AFTER 00Z...CEILINGS WILL VARY BETWEEN IFR AND
MVFR...AMENDMENTS LIKELY. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH 20Z.
KTEB...AFTER 00Z...CEILINGS WILL VARY BETWEEN IFR AND
MVFR...AMENDMENTS LIKELY.
KHPN...AFTER 23Z...CEILINGS WILL VARY BETWEEN IFR AND
MVFR...AMENDMENTS LIKELY.
KSWF...AFTER 00Z...CEILINGS WILL VARY BETWEEN IFR AND
MVFR...AMENDMENTS LIKELY.
KISP...AFTER 00Z...CEILINGS WILL VARY BETWEEN IFR AND
MVFR...AMENDMENTS LIKELY.
KBDR...AFTER 00Z...CEILINGS WILL VARY BETWEEN IFR AND
MVFR...AMENDMENTS LIKELY.
KGON...AFTER 23Z...CEILINGS WILL VARY BETWEEN IFR AND
MVFR...AMENDMENTS LIKELY.
OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY AFT-WED...VFR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN.
FRIDAY...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN
NORTH AND WEST OF THE NYC TERMINALS AT NIGHT.
SATURDAY...VFR CEILINGS IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION/CYCLONIC FLOW.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA UP FOR ALL WATERS TODAY WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUING
TO TIGHTEN BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND LOW
PRES WORKING NE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN TIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE PERSISTENT STRONG NE FLOW WILL BUILD SEAS TO 6-11 FT BY TONIGHT
(HIGHEST SE PORTION OF ANZ-350 LOWEST WESTERN PORTION OF ANZ-355).
COULD SEE SOME 5-6 FT WAVES NEAR THE MOUTH OF LONG ISLAND SOUND LATE
TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL. AS LOW PULLS TO THE ENE TUESDAY
WINDS BACK TO THE N AND DIMINISH SLIGHTLY.
N WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONTINUE TO RELAX...AND EXPECT THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS TO FALL BELOW
SCA CRITERIA BY MIDNIGHT...BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN ZONES WILL STAY
AT/ABOVE CRITERIA THROUGH ALL THE NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD PROVIDE A
24 HOUR OR SO PERIOD WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
THIS LULL COMES TO AN END LATE THURSDAY AS WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE
E AHEAD OF ANOTHER COASTAL STORM...THIS ONE LIKELY MUCH STRONGER
THAN THE ONE THAT IMPACTED THE AREA EARLIER IN THE WEEK. FOR NOW
CAPPING THINGS AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
LOW/S TRACK/STRENGTH BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF AT LEAST GALE
FORCE GUSTS IMPACTED ALL WATERS THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LIGHT PCPN STARTING ACROSS EASTERN LI/SE CT THIS MORNING...THEN
SPREADING WEST BY AFT. QPF IS GENERALLY A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. A
MORE SIGNIFICANT QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION EVENT IS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH OVER AND INCH ON AVERAGE.
AT THIS TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JST
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...JST
LONG TERM...JST
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...BG
HYDROLOGY...JST
000
FXUS61 KOKX 231600
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1100 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL BRING A MOIST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE TRI-STATE
AREA. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF CAPE COD ON TUESDAY AND
ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WEATHER. COLDER AND BREEZY
WEATHER MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO DECREASE POPS FOR WESTERN
SECTIONS AS NEW MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS CURRENT RADAR SUPPORTS
ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. INCREASED POPS TO THE EAST AS THE
SHOWERS OVER THE TWIN FORKS AND SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT HAVE
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...ALSO SEE SOME THETA E ADVECTION AT H850
IN THE NAM AND GFS...INDICATING ADVECTION OF MOISTURE. WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE UPPER JET REMAINING OFFSHORE...DO NOT EXPECT
FORCING TO BE ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.
TEMPS DO NOT MOVE MUCH TODAY DO TO THE LACK ON HEATING AND THE
MODERATELY BREEZY CONDITIONS OFF THE ATLANTIC.
BOTTOM LINE - A RAW NOVEMBER DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST AND TRACKS
NORTHEAST TO A POSITION EAST OF CAPE COD BY LATE TUESDAY. THIS IS
BEING DRIVEN BY SHORT WAVE ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
THIS MORNING AS SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS SHORTWAVE
MOVES THOUGH THE LONG WAVE RIDGE ON THE EAST COAST AND CLEARS OUT THE
OLD CUT OFFS THAT HAVE BEEN SITTING AROUND (CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN
CT AND EASTERN KY).
AS A RESULT OF THE WEAK UPPER FORCING, DO NOT BELIEVE THE
OPERATIONAL GFS DEVELOPMENT OF A 1006 HPA ON TUESDAY EAST OF CAPE
COD. PREFER THE WEAKER (OLD) ECMWF RUN. THE LOCAL IMPORTANCE OF THIS
CHOICE IS TUESDAY`S CLOUDS AND RESULTING TEMPS. THE WEAKER SOLUTION
KEEPS WINDS MORE EASTERLY ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY
WITH COOL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT PCPN - AT LEAST IN THE MORNING.
THE ABOVE ALSO IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WHICH, WITH
UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY BEING HIGH IN TERMS OF CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPS, IS BEST TO STAY WITH THAT FORECAST AND NOT FLIP/FLOP.
TEMPS RANGE IS SMALL THE NEXT 48 HOURS DUE TO CLOUDINESS AND
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS GOOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS WERE RAISED
SLIGHTLY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED DESCRIBES THE PERIOD. CLOSED LOW MOVES FROM CHICAGO
THURSDAY AM TO NEAR LOCAL AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING AS IT DEEPENS.
LATEST GFS (00Z)IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE OLD (12Z) ECMWF WITH THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST. NCEP GLOBAL ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM SHOW
SURPRISINGLY LITTLE SPREAD WITH THIS SYSTEM. THUS, THE LONG TERM
APPEARS TO HAVE MORE FORECAST CONFIDENCE THAN THE SHORT TERM.
AT THE SURFACE, WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY
REDEVELOPS ON THE TRIPLE POINT ON FRIDAY AM OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND
THEN DEEPS RAPIDLY OVER NEW ENGLAND.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...DIFLUENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
ON-SHORE SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW MEAN CLOUDS WITH AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FOR THANKSGIVING.
THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW EARLY FRIDAY (WITH A FEW
HUNDRED JOULES OF ELEVATED CAPE ON THE GFS SOUNDINGS) SUPPORTS THE
POSSIBILITY OF MORE RARE NOVEMBER THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ALONG WITH
HEAVIER RAIN AND STRONG EASTERLY WINDS MEANS A RATHER UNPLEASANT
TIME FOR EARLY MORNING SHOPPERS.
ON SATURDAY...WHILE UPPER LOW TRACKS OVER THE REGION, THE DEEPER
(COLDER) GFS PROFILES KEEP ANY MIXED PCPN INLAND. WINDY TOO ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEEP LOW. BASED ON GFS PROFILES...THERE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR WIND ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS TODAY WITH MVFR VSBYS DEVELOPING IN LIGHT
RAIN AND FOG THIS AFT. TOWARD 22Z...CEILINGS LOWER TO HIGH END IFR.
NOT HIGHLY CONFIDENT IN THIS HAPPENING AND CEILINGS MAY WELL REMAIN
MVFR.
WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST...030 TO 060...THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT.
TAF COMMENTS (FORECASTER INSIGHT ON TIMING, CONFIDENCE, TRENDS AND GROUND OPS)
KEWR...IFR CEILING HEIGHTS AND TIMING UNCERTAIN...AMENDMENTS
LIKELY.
KEWR HOURLY WIND FORECAST
ALL WIND DIRECTIONS ARE TRUE...ADD 13 DEGREES FOR MAGNETIC
23/12Z 03011KT
23/13Z 03011KT
23/14Z 03011KT
23/15Z 03011KT
23/16Z 03012KT
23/17Z 03012KT
23/18Z 03012KT
23/19Z 03012KT
23/20Z 03012KT
23/21Z 03012KT
23/22Z 03012KT
23/23Z 03012KT
KJFK...IFR CEILING HEIGHTS AND TIMING UNCERTAIN...AMENDMENTS
LIKELY.
KLGA...IFR CEILING HEIGHTS AND TIMING UNCERTAIN...AMENDMENTS
LIKELY.
KTEB...IFR CEILING HEIGHTS AND TIMING UNCERTAIN...AMENDMENTS
LIKELY.
KHPN...IFR CEILING HEIGHTS AND TIMING UNCERTAIN...AMENDMENTS
LIKELY.
KSWF...IFR CEILING HEIGHTS AND TIMING UNCERTAIN...AMENDMENTS
LIKELY.
KISP...IFR CEILING HEIGHTS...VISIBILITIES TIMING
UNCERTAIN...AMENDMENTS LIKELY.
KBDR...IFR CEILING HEIGHTS...VISIBILITIES TIMING
UNCERTAIN...AMENDMENTS LIKELY.
KGON...IFR CEILING HEIGHTS...VISIBILITIES TIMING
UNCERTAIN...AMENDMENTS LIKELY.
OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY...IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN RAIN AND FOG
EARLY...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE MORNING.
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN.
FRIDAY...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN NORTH
AND WEST OF THE NYC TERMINALS AT NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA UP FOR ALL WATERS TODAY WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUING
TO TIGHTEN BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND LOW
PRES WORKING NE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN TIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE PERSISTENT STRONG NE FLOW WILL BUILD SEAS TO 6-11 FT BY TONIGHT
(HIGHEST SE PORTION OF ANZ-350 LOWEST WESTERN PORTION OF ANZ-355).
COULD SEE SOME 5-6 FT WAVES NEAR THE MOUTH OF LONG ISLAND SOUND LATE
TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL. AS LOW PULLS TO THE ENE TUESDAY
WINDS BACK TO THE N AND DIMINISH SLIGHTLY.
N WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONTINUE TO RELAX...AND EXPECT THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS TO FALL BELOW
SCA CRITERIA BY MIDNIGHT...BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN ZONES WILL STAY
AT/ABOVE CRITERIA THROUGH ALL THE NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD PROVIDE A
24 HOUR OR SO PERIOD WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
THIS LULL COMES TO AN END LATE THURSDAY AS WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE
E AHEAD OF ANOTHER COASTAL STORM...THIS ONE LIKELY MUCH STRONGER
THAN THE ONE THAT IMPACTED THE AREA EARLIER IN THE WEEK. FOR NOW
CAPPING THINGS AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
LOW/S TRACK/STRENGTH BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF AT LEAST GALE
FORCE GUSTS IMPACTED ALL WATERS THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LIGHT PCPN STARTING ACROSS EASTERN LI/SE CT THIS MORNING...THEN
SPREADING WEST BY AFT. QPF IS GENERALLY A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. A
MORE SIGNIFICANT QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION EVENT IS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH OVER AND INCH ON AVERAGE.
AT THIS TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JST
NEAR TERM...BG/JP
SHORT TERM...JST
LONG TERM...JST
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...BG/JP
HYDROLOGY...JST
000
FXUS61 KOKX 231426
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
926 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL BRING A MOIST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE TRI-STATE
AREA. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF CAPE COD ON TUESDAY AND
ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WEATHER. COLDER AND BREEZY
WEATHER MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WIDESPREAD STRATUS HAS MOVED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH
SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SE CT/ERN LI. THE QUESTION FOR
TODAY IS THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE RAIN? NUMERICAL MODEL SUITE IS
SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT PCPN DURING THE MORNING ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS...THEN SPREADING WEST (SIMILAR TO THE WAY THE
STRATUS DEVELOPED).
LIFT IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME WARM ADVECTION
SEEN IN THE VEERING LOW LEVEL NAM AND GFS PROFILES THAT RESULTS IN
THE STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION. THUS, FEEL THIS IS AN
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TYPE OF PCPN.
TEMPS DO NOT MOVE MUCH TODAY DO TO THE LACK ON HEATING AND THE
MODERATELY BREEZY CONDITIONS OFF THE ATLANTIC.
BOTTOM LINE - A RAW NOVEMBER DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST AND TRACKS
NORTHEAST TO A POSITION EAST OF CAPE COD BY LATE TUESDAY. THIS IS
BEING DRIVEN BY SHORT WAVE ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
THIS MORNING AS SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS SHORTWAVE
MOVES THOUGH THE LONG WAVE RIDGE ON THE EAST COAST AND CLEARS OUT THE
OLD CUT OFFS THAT HAVE BEEN SITTING AROUND (CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN
CT AND EASTERN KY).
AS A RESULT OF THE WEAK UPPER FORCING, DO NOT BELIEVE THE
OPERATIONAL GFS DEVELOPMENT OF A 1006 HPA ON TUESDAY EAST OF CAPE
COD. PREFER THE WEAKER (OLD) ECMWF RUN. THE LOCAL IMPORTANCE OF THIS
CHOICE IS TUESDAY`S CLOUDS AND RESULTING TEMPS. THE WEAKER SOLUTION
KEEPS WINDS MORE EASTERLY ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY
WITH COOL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT PCPN - AT LEAST IN THE MORNING.
THE ABOVE ALSO IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WHICH, WITH
UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY BEING HIGH IN TERMS OF CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPS, IS BEST TO STAY WITH THAT FORECAST AND NOT FLIP/FLOP.
TEMPS RANGE IS SMALL THE NEXT 48 HOURS DUE TO CLOUDINESS AND
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS GOOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS WERE RAISED
SLIGHTLY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED DESCRIBES THE PERIOD. CLOSED LOW MOVES FROM CHICAGO
THURSDAY AM TO NEAR LOCAL AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING AS IT DEEPENS.
LATEST GFS (00Z)IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE OLD (12Z) ECMWF WITH THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST. NCEP GLOBAL ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM SHOW
SURPRISINGLY LITTLE SPREAD WITH THIS SYSTEM. THUS, THE LONG TERM
APPEARS TO HAVE MORE FORECAST CONFIDENCE THAN THE SHORT TERM.
AT THE SURFACE, WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY
REDEVELOPS ON THE TRIPLE POINT ON FRIDAY AM OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND
THEN DEEPS RAPIDLY OVER NEW ENGLAND.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...DIFFLUENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
ON-SHORE SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW MEAN CLOUDS WITH AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FOR THANKSGIVING.
THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW EARLY FRIDAY (WITH A FEW
HUNDRED JOULES OF ELEVATED CAPE ON THE GFS SOUNDINGS) SUPPORTS THE
POSSIBILITY OF MORE RARE NOVEMBER THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ALONG WITH
HEAVIER RAIN AND STRONG EASTERLY WINDS MEANS A RATHER UNPLEASANT
TIME FOR EARLY MORNING SHOPPERS.
ON SATURDAY...WHILE UPPER LOW TRACKS OVER THE REGION, THE DEEPER
(COLDER) GFS PROFILES KEEP ANY MIXED PCPN INLAND. WINDY TOO ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEEP LOW. BASED ON GFS PROFILES...THERE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR WIND ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS TODAY WITH MVFR VSBYS DEVELOPING IN LIGHT
RAIN AND FOG THIS AFT. TOWARD 22Z...CEILINGS LOWER TO HIGH END IFR.
NOT HIGHLY CONFIDENT IN THIS HAPPENING AND CEILINGS MAY WELL REMAIN
MVFR.
WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST...030 TO 060...THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT.
TAF COMMENTS (FORECASTER INSIGHT ON TIMING, CONFIDENCE, TRENDS AND GROUND OPS)
KEWR...IFR CEILING HEIGHTS AND TIMING UNCERTAIN...AMENDMENTS
LIKELY.
KEWR HOURLY WIND FORECAST
ALL WIND DIRECTIONS ARE TRUE...ADD 13 DEGREES FOR MAGNETIC
23/12Z 03011KT
23/13Z 03011KT
23/14Z 03011KT
23/15Z 03011KT
23/16Z 03012KT
23/17Z 03012KT
23/18Z 03012KT
23/19Z 03012KT
23/20Z 03012KT
23/21Z 03012KT
23/22Z 03012KT
23/23Z 03012KT
KJFK...IFR CEILING HEIGHTS AND TIMING UNCERTAIN...AMENDMENTS
LIKELY.
KLGA...IFR CEILING HEIGHTS AND TIMING UNCERTAIN...AMENDMENTS
LIKELY.
KTEB...IFR CEILING HEIGHTS AND TIMING UNCERTAIN...AMENDMENTS
LIKELY.
KHPN...IFR CEILING HEIGHTS AND TIMING UNCERTAIN...AMENDMENTS
LIKELY.
KSWF...IFR CEILING HEIGHTS AND TIMING UNCERTAIN...AMENDMENTS
LIKELY.
KISP...IFR CEILING HEIGHTS...VISIBILITIES TIMING
UNCERTAIN...AMENDMENTS LIKELY.
KBDR...IFR CEILING HEIGHTS...VISIBILITIES TIMING
UNCERTAIN...AMENDMENTS LIKELY.
KGON...IFR CEILING HEIGHTS...VISIBILITIES TIMING
UNCERTAIN...AMENDMENTS LIKELY.
OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY...IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN RAIN AND FOG
EARLY...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE MORNING.
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN.
FRIDAY...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN NORTH
AND WEST OF THE NYC TERMINALS AT NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA UP FOR ALL WATERS TODAY WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUING
TO TIGHTEN BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND LOW
PRES WORKING NE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN TIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE PERSISTENT STRONG NE FLOW WILL BUILD SEAS TO 6-11 FT BY TONIGHT
(HIGHEST SE PORTION OF ANZ-350 LOWEST WESTERN PORTION OF ANZ-355).
COULD SEE SOME 5-6 FT WAVES NEAR THE MOUTH OF LONG ISLAND SOUND LATE
TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL. AS LOW PULLS TO THE ENE TUESDAY
WINDS BACK TO THE N AND DIMINISH SLIGHTLY.
N WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONTINUE TO RELAX...AND EXPECT THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS TO FALL BELOW
SCA CRITERIA BY MIDNIGHT...BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN ZONES WILL STAY
AT/ABOVE CRITERIA THROUGH ALL THE NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD PROVIDE A
24 HOUR OR SO PERIOD WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
THIS LULL COMES TO AN END LATE THURSDAY AS WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE
E AHEAD OF ANOTHER COASTAL STORM...THIS ONE LIKELY MUCH STRONGER
THAN THE ONE THAT IMPACTED THE AREA EARLIER IN THE WEEK. FOR NOW
CAPPING THINGS AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
LOW/S TRACK/STRENGTH BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF AT LEAST GALE
FORCE GUSTS IMPACTED ALL WATERS THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LIGHT PCPN STARTING ACROSS EASTERN LI/SE CT THIS MORNING...THEN
SPREADING WEST BY AFT. QPF IS GENERALLY A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. A
MORE SIGNIFICANT QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION EVENT IS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH OVER AND INCH ON AVERAGE.
AT THIS TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
AVIATION...DW
000
FXUS61 KOKX 231136
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
636 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL BRING A MOIST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE TRI-STATE
AREA. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF CAPE COD ON TUESDAY AND
ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WEATHER. COLDER AND BREEZY
WEATHER MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRATUS CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
OCEAN PREVAILS. THE QUESTION FOR TODAY IS DOES IS RAIN? NUMERICAL
MODEL SUITE IS SUPPORTING THE DEVELOP OF LIGHT PCPN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER LONG ISLAND FIRST, THAN
THEN SPREAD/DEVELOP WEST (SIMILAR TO THE WAY THE STRATUS DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT).
LIFT IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME WARM ADVECTION
SEEN IN THE VEERING LOW LEVEL NAM AND GFS PROFILES THAT RESULTS IN
THE STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION. THUS, FEEL THIS IS AN
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TYPE OF PCPN.
TEMPS DO NOT MOVE MUCH TODAY DO TO THE LACK ON HEATING AND THE
MODERATELY BREEZY CONDITIONS OFF THE ATLANTIC.
BOTTOM LINE - A RAW NOVEMBER DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST AND TRACKS
NORTHEAST TO A POSITION EAST OF CAPE COD BY LATE TUESDAY. THIS IS
BEING DRIVEN BY SHORT WAVE ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
THIS MORNING AS SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS SHORTWAVE
MOVES THOUGH THE LONG WAVE RIDGE ON THE EAST COAST AND CLEARS OUT THE
OLD CUT OFFS THAT HAVE BEEN SITTING AROUND (CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN
CT AND EASTERN KY).
AS A RESULT OF THE WEAK UPPER FORCING, DO NOT BELIEVE THE
OPERATIONAL GFS DEVELOPMENT OF A 1006 HPA ON TUESDAY EAST OF CAPE
COD. PREFER THE WEAKER (OLD) ECMWF RUN. THE LOCAL IMPORTANCE OF THIS
CHOICE IS TUESDAY`S CLOUDS AND RESULTING TEMPS. THE WEAKER SOLUTION
KEEPS WINDS MORE EASTERLY ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY
WITH COOL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT PCPN - AT LEAST IN THE MORNING.
THE ABOVE ALSO IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WHICH, WITH
UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY BEING HIGH IN TERMS OF CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPS, IS BEST TO STAY WITH THAT FORECAST AND NOT FLIP/FLOP.
TEMPS RANGE IS SMALL THE NEXT 48 HOURS DUE TO CLOUDINESS AND
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS GOOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS WERE RAISED
SLIGHTLY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED DESCRIBES THE PERIOD. CLOSED LOW MOVES FROM CHICAGO
THURSDAY AM TO NEAR LOCAL AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING AS IT DEEPENS.
LATEST GFS (00Z)IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE OLD (12Z) ECMWF WITH THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST. NCEP GLOBAL ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM SHOW
SURPRISINGLY LITTLE SPREAD WITH THIS SYSTEM. THUS, THE LONG TERM
APPEARS TO HAVE MORE FORECAST CONFIDENCE THAN THE SHORT TERM.
AT THE SURFACE, WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY
REDEVELOPS ON THE TRIPLE POINT ON FRIDAY AM OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND
THEN DEEPS RAPIDLY OVER NEW ENGLAND.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...DIFLUENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
ON-SHORE SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW MEAN CLOUDS WITH AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FOR THANKSGIVING.
THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW EARLY FRIDAY (WITH A FEW
HUNDRED JOULES OF ELEVATED CAPE ON THE GFS SOUNDINGS) SUPPORTS THE
POSSIBILITY OF MORE RARE NOVEMBER THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ALONG WITH
HEAVIER RAIN AND STRONG EASTERLY WINDS MEANS A RATHER UNPLEASANT
TIME FOR EARLY MORNING SHOPPERS.
ON SATURDAY...WHILE UPPER LOW TRACKS OVER THE REGION, THE DEEPER
(COLDER) GFS PROFILES KEEP ANY MIXED PCPN INLAND. WINDY TOO ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEEP LOW. BASED ON GFS PROFILES...THERE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR WIND ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CEILINGS MOSTLY VFR...WITH SOME VARIATIONS TO MVFR...BY 14Z OR
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...NOT HIGHLY
CONFIDENT ON THE TIMING. EXPECT CEILINGS TO REMAIN MVFR AS LIGHT
RAIN DEVELOPS AND VISIBILITIES LOWER TO MVFR IN LIGHT RAIN AND FOG.
TOWARD 22Z CEILINGS LIKELY LOWER TO HIGH END IFR. NOT HIGHLY
CONFIDENT IN THIS HAPPENING AND CEILINGS MAY WELL REMAIN MVFR.
WINDS FROM THE NORTH NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST...030 TO 060...THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT.
TAF COMMENTS (FORECASTER INSIGHT ON TIMING, CONFIDENCE, TRENDS AND GROUND OPS)
KEWR...CEILING HEIGHTS AND TIMING UNCERTAIN...AMENDMENTS
LIKELY.
KEWR HOURLY WIND FORECAST
ALL WIND DIRECTIONS ARE TRUE...ADD 13 DEGREES FOR MAGNETIC
23/10Z 04010KT
23/11Z 04011KT
23/12Z 03011KT
23/13Z 03011KT
23/14Z 03011KT
23/15Z 03011KT
23/16Z 03012KT
23/17Z 03012KT
23/18Z 03012KT
23/19Z 03012KT
23/20Z 03012KT
23/21Z 03012KT
KJFK...CEILING HEIGHTS AND TIMING UNCERTAIN...AMENDMENTS
LIKELY.
KLGA...CEILING HEIGHTS AND TIMING UNCERTAIN...AMENDMENTS
LIKELY.
KTEB...CEILING HEIGHTS AND TIMING UNCERTAIN...AMENDMENTS
LIKELY.
KHPN...CEILING HEIGHTS AND TIMING UNCERTAIN...AMENDMENTS
LIKELY.
KSWF...CEILING HEIGHTS AND TIMING UNCERTAIN...AMENDMENTS
LIKELY.
KISP...CEILING HEIGHTS...VISIBILITIES TIMING
UNCERTAIN...AMENDMENTS LIKELY.
KBDR...CEILING HEIGHTS...VISIBILITIES TIMING
UNCERTAIN...AMENDMENTS LIKELY.
KGON...CEILING HEIGHTS...VISIBILITIES TIMING
UNCERTAIN...AMENDMENTS LIKELY.
OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY...IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN RAIN AND FOG
EARLY...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE MORNING.
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN.
FRIDAY...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN NORTH
AND WEST OF THE NYC TERMINALS AT NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
ALREADY SOLIDLY AT SCA LEVELS (BOTH SEAS AND GUSTS) ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN ZONES AT 8Z...AND WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUING TO TIGHTEN
WOULD EXPECT REMAINDER OF COASTAL OCEAN WATERS TO HAVE GUSTS TO
25-30 KT WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO HAVE LEFT HEADLINES AS IS TO
GET STARTED.
WITH DAMMING HIGH REMAINING ANCHORED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WITH AN EXTENSION BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST...AND A SLOWLY
STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOW WORKING ITS WAY NE FROM THE SE
COAST...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AND
THUS WITH AT LEAST 80 PERCENT CONFIDENCE THAT GUSTS TO SCA LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS THROUGH THEN...HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA
THROUGH TUESDAY FOR ALL WATERS.
THE PERSISTENT STRONG NE FLOW WILL BUILD SEAS TO 6-11 FT BY TONIGHT
(HIGHEST SE PORTION OF ANZ-350 LOWEST WESTERN PORTION OF ANZ-355).
COULD SEE SOME 5-6 FT WAVES NEAR THE MOTH OF LONG ISLAND SOUND LATE
TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL. AS LOW PULLS TO THE ENE TUESDAY
WINDS BACK TO THE N AND DIMINISH SLIGHTLY.
N WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONTINUE TO RELAX...AND EXPECT THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS TO FALL BELOW
SCA CRITERIA BY MIDNIGHT...BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN ZONES WILL STAY
AT/ABOVE CRITERIA THROUGH ALL THE NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD PROVIDE A
24 HOUR OR SO PERIOD WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
THIS LULL COMES TO AN END LATE THURSDAY AS WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE
E AHEAD OF ANOTHER COASTAL STORM...THIS ONE LIKELY MUCH STRONGER
THAN THE ONE THAT IMPACTED THE AREA EARLIER IN THE WEEK. FOR NOW
CAPPING THINGS AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
LOW/S TRACK/STRENGTH BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF AT LEAST GALE
FORCE GUSTS IMPACTED ALL WATERS THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LIGHT PCPN STARTING THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY. QPF IS
GENERALLY A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT QUANTITATIVE
PRECIPITATION EVENT IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
WITH OVER AND INCH ON AVERAGE.
AT THIS TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JST
NEAR TERM...JST
SHORT TERM...JST
LONG TERM...JST
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...PFM
HYDROLOGY...JST
000
FXUS61 KOKX 230847
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
347 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL BRING A MOIST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE TRI-STATE
AREA. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF CAPE COD ON TUESDAY AND
ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WEATHER. COLDER AND BREEZY
WEATHER MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRATUS CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
OCEAN PREVAILS. THE QUESTION FOR TODAY IS DOES IS RAIN? NUMERICAL
MODEL SUITE IS SUPPORTING THE DEVELOP OF LIGHT PCPN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER LONG ISLAND FIRST, THAN
THEN SPREAD/DEVELOP WEST (SIMILAR TO THE WAY THE STRATUS DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT).
LIFT IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME WARM ADVECTION
SEEN IN THE VEERING LOW LEVEL NAM AND GFS PROFILES THAT RESULTS IN
THE STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION. THUS, FEEL THIS IS AN
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TYPE OF PCPN.
TEMPS DO NOT MOVE MUCH TODAY DO TO THE LACK ON HEATING AND THE
MODERATELY BREEZY CONDITIONS OFF THE ATLANTIC.
BOTTOM LINE - A RAW NOVEMBER DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST AND TRACKS
NORTHEAST TO A POSITION EAST OF CAPE COD BY LATE TUESDAY. THIS IS
BEING DRIVEN BY SHORT WAVE ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
THIS MORNING AS SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS SHORTWAVE
MOVES THOUGH THE LONG WAVE RIDGE ON THE EAST COAST AND CLEARS OUT THE
OLD CUT OFFS THAT HAVE BEEN SITTING AROUND (CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN
CT AND EASTERN KY).
AS A RESULT OF THE WEAK UPPER FORCING, DO NOT BELIEVE THE
OPERATIONAL GFS DEVELOPMENT OF A 1006 HPA ON TUESDAY EAST OF CAPE
COD. PREFER THE WEAKER (OLD) ECMWF RUN. THE LOCAL IMPORTANCE OF THIS
CHOICE IS TUESDAY`S CLOUDS AND RESULTING TEMPS. THE WEAKER SOLUTION
KEEPS WINDS MORE EASTERLY ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY
WITH COOL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT PCPN - AT LEAST IN THE MORNING.
THE ABOVE ALSO IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WHICH, WITH
UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY BEING HIGH IN TERMS OF CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPS, IS BEST TO STAY WITH THAT FORECAST AND NOT FLIP/FLOP.
TEMPS RANGE IS SMALL THE NEXT 48 HOURS DUE TO CLOUDINESS AND
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS GOOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS WERE RAISED
SLIGHTLY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED DESCRIBES THE PERIOD. CLOSED LOW MOVES FROM CHICAGO
THURSDAY AM TO NEAR LOCAL AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING AS IT DEEPENS.
LATEST GFS (00Z)IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE OLD (12Z) ECMWF WITH THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST. NCEP GLOBAL ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM SHOW
SURPRISINGLY LITTLE SPREAD WITH THIS SYSTEM. THUS, THE LONG TERM
APPEARS TO HAVE MORE FORECAST CONFIDENCE THAN THE SHORT TERM.
AT THE SURFACE, WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY
REDEVELOPS ON THE TRIPLE POINT ON FRIDAY AM OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND
THEN DEEPS RAPIDLY OVER NEW ENGLAND.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...DIFLUENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
ON-SHORE SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW MEAN CLOUDS WITH AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FOR THANKSGIVING.
THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW EARLY FRIDAY (WITH A FEW
HUNDRED JOULES OF ELEVATED CAPE ON THE GFS SOUNDINGS) SUPPORTS THE
POSSIBILITY OF MORE RARE NOVEMBER THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ALONG WITH
HEAVIER RAIN AND STRONG EASTERLY WINDS MEANS A RATHER UNPLEASANT
TIME FOR EARLY MORNING SHOPPERS.
ON SATURDAY...WHILE UPPER LOW TRACKS OVER THE REGION, THE DEEPER
(COLDER) GFS PROFILES KEEP ANY MIXED PCPN INLAND. WINDY TOO ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEEP LOW. BASED ON GFS PROFILES...THERE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR WIND ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CEILINGS REMAIN MVFR...BUT HAVE NOT LOWERED BELOW 2000 FT AS
EXPECTED. AMENDED TERMINALS TO DELAY LOWERING OF CEILINGS UNTIL MID
MORNING. TIMING MAY STILL BE TOO QUICK...LOWER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE START OF THE LIGHT RAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ONCE CEILINGS LOWER TO IFR WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. STILL NOT CONFIDENT IN LIFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING.
WINDS FROM THE NORTH NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST...030 TO 060...THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT BY 12Z.
OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY...IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN RAIN AND FOG. RAIN
TAPERING OFF DURING THE DAY WITH VISIBILITIES BECOMING MVFR.
TUESDAY NIGHT...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IMPROVING TO VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB VFR POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...SUB VFR POSSIBLE EARLY...GUSTY NW WINDS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
ALREADY SOLIDLY AT SCA LEVELS (BOTH SEAS AND GUSTS) ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN ZONES AT 8Z...AND WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUING TO TIGHTEN
WOULD EXPECT REMAINDER OF COASTAL OCEAN WATERS TO HAVE GUSTS TO
25-30 KT WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO HAVE LEFT HEADLINES AS IS TO
GET STARTED.
WITH DAMMING HIGH REMAINING ANCHORED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WITH AN EXTENSION BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST...AND A SLOWLY
STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOW WORKING ITS WAY NE FROM THE SE
COAST...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AND
THUS WITH AT LEAST 80 PERCENT CONFIDENCE THAT GUSTS TO SCA LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS THROUGH THEN...HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA
THROUGH TUESDAY FOR ALL WATERS.
THE PERSISTENT STRONG NE FLOW WILL BUILD SEAS TO 6-11 FT BY TONIGHT
(HIGHEST SE PORTION OF ANZ-350 LOWEST WESTERN PORTION OF ANZ-355).
COULD SEE SOME 5-6 FT WAVES NEAR THE MOTH OF LONG ISLAND SOUND LATE
TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL. AS LOW PULLS TO THE ENE TUESDAY
WINDS BACK TO THE N AND DIMINISH SLIGHTLY.
N WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONTINUE TO RELAX...AND EXPECT THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS TO FALL BELOW
SCA CRITERIA BY MIDNIGHT...BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN ZONES WILL STAY
AT/ABOVE CRITERIA THROUGH ALL THE NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD PROVIDE A
24 HOUR OR SO PERIOD WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
THIS LULL COMES TO AN END LATE THURSDAY AS WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE
E AHEAD OF ANOTHER COASTAL STORM...THIS ONE LIKELY MUCH STRONGER
THAN THE ONE THAT IMPACTED THE AREA EARLIER IN THE WEEK. FOR NOW
CAPPING THINGS AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
LOW/S TRACK/STRENGTH BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF AT LEAST GALE
FORCE GUSTS IMPACTED ALL WATERS THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
REQUIRE 2.5-3 FT DEPARTURES TO ACHIEVE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
TONIGHT/TUESDAY...DUE TO BEING IN BETWEEN THE NEW AND FULL
MOON. LATEST STORM SURGE GUIDANCE ONLY SUGGESTS DEPARTURES AROUND 1
FT. BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST...THIS SEEMS A BIT UNDER
DONE...HOWEVER NOT TO THE EXTENT NEED TO CREATE CONCERNS FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING. FOR NOW...DO NOT EXPECT COASTAL GAGES TO HAVE
READINGS EVEN APPROACH THE BENCH MARK FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING...BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE COASTAL
LOW FOR EARLY THIS WEEK...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.
POTENTIALLY A MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR COASTAL FLOODING IS A
STRONGER COASTAL LOW FOR LATE THIS WEEK. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE POTENTIAL WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LIGHT PCPN STARTING THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY. QPF IS
GENERALLY A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT QUANTITATIVE
PRECIPITATION EVENT IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
WITH OVER AND INCH ON AVERAGE.
AT THIS TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JST
NEAR TERM...JST
SHORT TERM...JST
LONG TERM...JST
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...JST
000
FXUS61 KOKX 230555
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1255 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL HEAD NORTHEAST JUST OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AND THEN PASS SOUTHEAST
OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
TRICKY FORECAST TONIGHT RE SKY COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE. PATCHES OF STRATOCU DEVELOPING. WITH EVENTUAL
COOLING BENEATH A LOW LEVEL INVERSION THINK THESE CLOUDS WILL
GAIN THE UPPER HAND...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES...INDICATIVE
OF MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR ENOUGH LIFT TO
GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. E-NE WINDS
STAYING UP TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP RADIATIONAL COOLING AT BAY...WITH
MINS AOA 12Z MAV GUIDANCE...WITH MID/UPPER 30S WELL INLAND AND
LOWER/MID 40S IN URBAN AND COASTAL SECTIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE COME AROUND TO SOME AGREEMENT RE THE
EVENTUAL TRACK OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TONIGHT...AND MOVING SLOWLY UP THE COAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUE. THE 12Z GFS/RGEM/ECMWF WERE ALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT...WITH THE
ECMWF JUST A TAD WEAKER/SLOWER...WHILE THE NAM WAS A BIT FARTHER
WEST. DISCOUNTED GEFS AND SREF MEAN SOLUTIONS AS THEY APPEARED TOO
SUPPRESSED...NOT GIVING ENOUGH CREDENCE TO REDEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW
FARTHER NORTHEAST LATE MON NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS A RESULT SIDED WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND
WEAKER GFS SOLUTION WHICH CLOSELY PARALLELS THE ECMWF...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING MON ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...THEN CATEGORICAL POP WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN MON
NIGHT. FCST MODELS APPEAR TOO QUICK TO DRY THINGS OUT ON TUE...AND
THINK ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT VIA CYCLONIC FLOW...EVEN
SOME MODEST OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS LONG ISLAND...
WILL HANG BACK TO PRODUCE MORE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THROUGH
TUE MORNING.
SKY COVER AND TEMPS ARE PROBLEMATIC FOR TUE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. SIDED WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND MILDER TEMPS...BUT COULD
JUST AS EASILY ENVISION CLEARING SKIES...WITH BOTH LOWER TEMPS AND
SOME FOG VIA RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LINGERING GROUND MOISTURE. A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS ON TAP FOR WED BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO
ARRIVE WITH SOME LOW CHANCE POP LATE IN THE DAY OR DURING THE EARLY
EVENING.
FOR TEMPS...DURING THE PRECIP EVENT BLENDED 12Z MAV AND NAM 2M TEMPS
TO YIELD TEMPS COOLER THAN GUIDANCE. SIDED WITH TEMPS WARMER THAN
12Z MAV GUIDANCE TUE NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS ALLUDED
TO ABOVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOSED LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS SFC LOW TRACKS JUST AHEAD OF IT. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA...AND ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THIS LOW. AS SUCH...AMPLIFICATION OF THIS LOW TAKES PLACE AS IT
PLOWS TOWARD THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. ONE WOULD EXPECT A SFC
LOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLC STATES AND MOVE NORTHWARD
TO A POSITION JUST OFF THE COAST. THIS LOW SHOULD BECOME PRIMARY LOW
IN TIME...WITH DEEPENING OCCURRING OVER NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY.
GGEM DOES NOT OFFER THIS SCENARIO...WITH NOT MUCH COASTAL
DEVELOPMENT EVIDENT.
AS SUCH...GLOBAL MODELS OFFER SOME DIFFERENCES WITH HANDLING OF THIS
COMPLEX SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
TIME FRAME. EXACT DETAILS STILL HAZY...AND EC/HPC FOLLOWED THIS TIME
FRAME.
WOULD EXPECT AN INCREASE IN POPS WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD QPF NOT ANTICIPATED QUITE YET. RAIN CHANCES WOULD
CONTINUE FRIDAY...WITH POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT BY THE WEEKEND AS DEEPER
NORTHWEST FLOW TAKES HOLD. COULD BE WINDY THOUGH BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
AS THE SFC LOW PASSES NORTH AND UPPER LOW MOVES EAST. LINGERING
INSTABILITY POPS WARRANTED INTO SAT...WITH DRYING THEREAFTER.
AS FOR ANY MIXED PRECIP...IT WILL BE COLD ALOFT BY THE WEEKEND (FRI
NIGHT AND SAT) AS UPPER COLD POOL MOVES OVERHEAD. ANY SNOW MENTION
WILL DEPEND ON BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS IN DATABASE THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS WITH VFR VISIBILITIES UNTIL ABOUT 11Z. CEILINGS
EVENTUALLY BECOME IFR DURING THE EARLY MORNING...11Z TO
14Z...TIMING A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. CEILINGS REMAIN IFR THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NOT CONFIDENT IN LIFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING. EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO REMAIN VFR UNTIL RAIN DEVELOPS
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN MVFR IN LIGHT RAIN AND FOG. LIKELY
THAT IFR VISIBILITIES WILL DEVELOP IN LIGHT RAIN AND FOG AFTER 22Z.
WINDS FROM THE NORTH NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST...030 TO 060...THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT BY 12Z. A
BRIEF GUST APPROACHING 20 KT POSSIBLE AT SOME TERMINALS THROUGH
THIS MORNING.
OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY...IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN RAIN AND FOG. RAIN
TAPERING OFF DURING THE DAY WITH VISIBILITIES BECOMING MVFR.
TUESDAY NIGHT...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IMPROVING TO VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB VFR POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...SUB VFR POSSIBLE EARLY...GUSTY NW WINDS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA UP FOR ALL OCEAN ZONES...WITH WINDS AND SEAS RAMPING UP
AS PRES GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN UP BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH...AND A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW. QUIET CONDITIONS ON THE
SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS WILL BE SHORT LIVED.
E-NE FLOW WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS
THROUGH MON NIGHT...WITH MAX OCEAN SEAS 9 OR 10 FT...JUST SHY OF
WAVEWATCH VALUES. GALES UNLIKELY TO OCCUR...BUT IT COULD BE A CLOSE
CALL ON THE FAR EASTERN OCEAN WATERS LATE MON NIGHT OR EARLY TUE
MORNING AS THE COASTAL LOW PASSES BY. PROBABILITY OF GALES LESS THAN
50 PERCENT ATTM...SO DID NOT ISSUE A WATCH.
SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY
ON TUE AND POSSIBLY INTO TUE NIGHT...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BUT SEAS
SLOW TO SUBSIDE AFTER THE LOW PASSES. SCA CONDITIONS MAY ALSO
CONTINUE AT LEAST INTO TUE MORNING ON THE EASTERN SOUND/BAYS.
WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST WED NIGHT...AND EAST THURSDAY AS INLAND
LOW/FRONT NEARS. IF COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF SE/MID ATLC COAST LATER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS AS THEY BACK TO
THE NORTH. WINDS BACK FURTHER TO THE WEST/NW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
THE LOW DEEPENS AND TRACKS JUST TO THE NORTH. SPEEDS WILL PICK UP
QUITE A BIT.
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SEAS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS COASTAL
LOW IMPACTS THE AREA WATERS. WAVE WATCH III OUTPUT SEEMS REASONABLE.
EASTERN WATERS ON FRIDAY WILL OBSERVE HIGHEST SEAS DUE TO STRONG
WEST FETCH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
QPF FOR THE UPCOMING EVENT CALLS FOR 1/2 INCH MOST OF THE AREA...AND
1/2 TO 3/4 INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST CT AND EASTER LONG ISLAND.
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE THU AND FRI. NO HYDROLOGIC
PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
36 TO 48 HOUR PERIOD OF E-NE WINDS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WATER
LEVELS AROUND 2 FT ABOVE NORMAL. THE CURRENT TIDE CYCLES ARE
INCREASING...BUT ARE NOT AT ASTRONOMICAL HIGHS UNTIL NEXT WEEK.
BASED ON CURRENT LEVELS...2.5 TO 3 FT IS NEEDED FOR MINOR FLOODING
FOR BOTH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
THEREFORE NO PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME. THE SITUATION
WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG
NEAR TERM...BG/PW
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BG/PW
HYDROLOGY...BG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
000
FXUS61 KOKX 230137
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
837 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL HEAD NORTHEAST JUST OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AND THEN PASS SOUTHEAST
OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
TRICKY FORECAST TONIGHT RE SKY COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE. PATCHES OF STRATOCU DEVELOPING. WITH EVENTUAL
COOLING BENEATH A LOW LEVEL INVERSION THINK THESE CLOUDS WILL
GAIN THE UPPER HAND...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES...INDICATIVE
OF MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR ENOUGH LIFT TO
GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. E-NE WINDS
STAYING UP TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP RADIATIONAL COOLING AT BAY...WITH
MINS AOA 12Z MAV GUIDANCE...WITH MID/UPPER 30S WELL INLAND AND
LOWER/MID 40S IN URBAN AND COASTAL SECTIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE COME AROUND TO SOME AGREEMENT RE THE
EVENTUAL TRACK OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TONIGHT...AND MOVING SLOWLY UP THE COAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUE. THE 12Z GFS/RGEM/ECMWF WERE ALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT...WITH THE
ECMWF JUST A TAD WEAKER/SLOWER...WHILE THE NAM WAS A BIT FARTHER
WEST. DISCOUNTED GEFS AND SREF MEAN SOLUTIONS AS THEY APPEARED TOO
SUPPRESSED...NOT GIVING ENOUGH CREDENCE TO REDEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW
FARTHER NORTHEAST LATE MON NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS A RESULT SIDED WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND
WEAKER GFS SOLUTION WHICH CLOSELY PARALLELS THE ECMWF...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING MON ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...THEN CATEGORICAL POP WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN MON
NIGHT. FCST MODELS APPEAR TOO QUICK TO DRY THINGS OUT ON TUE...AND
THINK ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT VIA CYCLONIC FLOW...EVEN
SOME MODEST OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS LONG ISLAND...
WILL HANG BACK TO PRODUCE MORE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THROUGH
TUE MORNING.
SKY COVER AND TEMPS ARE PROBLEMATIC FOR TUE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. SIDED WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND MILDER TEMPS...BUT COULD
JUST AS EASILY ENVISION CLEARING SKIES...WITH BOTH LOWER TEMPS AND
SOME FOG VIA RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LINGERING GROUND MOISTURE. A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS ON TAP FOR WED BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO
ARRIVE WITH SOME LOW CHANCE POP LATE IN THE DAY OR DURING THE EARLY
EVENING.
FOR TEMPS...DURING THE PRECIP EVENT BLENDED 12Z MAV AND NAM 2M TEMPS
TO YIELD TEMPS COOLER THAN GUIDANCE. SIDED WITH TEMPS WARMER THAN
12Z MAV GUIDANCE TUE NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS ALLUDED
TO ABOVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOSED LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS SFC LOW TRACKS JUST AHEAD OF IT. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA...AND ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THIS LOW. AS SUCH...AMPLIFICATION OF THIS LOW TAKES PLACE AS IT
PLOWS TOWARD THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. ONE WOULD EXPECT A SFC
LOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLC STATES AND MOVE NORTHWARD
TO A POSITION JUST OFF THE COAST. THIS LOW SHOULD BECOME PRIMARY LOW
IN TIME...WITH DEEPENING OCCURRING OVER NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY.
GGEM DOES NOT OFFER THIS SCENARIO...WITH NOT MUCH COASTAL
DEVELOPMENT EVIDENT.
AS SUCH...GLOBAL MODELS OFFER SOME DIFFERENCES WITH HANDLING OF THIS
COMPLEX SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
TIME FRAME. EXACT DETAILS STILL HAZY...AND EC/HPC FOLLOWED THIS TIME
FRAME.
WOULD EXPECT AN INCREASE IN POPS WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD QPF NOT ANTICIPATED QUITE YET. RAIN CHANCES WOULD
CONTINUE FRIDAY...WITH POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT BY THE WEEKEND AS DEEPER
NORTHWEST FLOW TAKES HOLD. COULD BE WINDY THOUGH BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
AS THE SFC LOW PASSES NORTH AND UPPER LOW MOVES EAST. LINGERING
INSTABILITY POPS WARRANTED INTO SAT...WITH DRYING THEREAFTER.
AS FOR ANY MIXED PRECIP...IT WILL BE COLD ALOFT BY THE WEEKEND (FRI
NIGHT AND SAT) AS UPPER COLD POOL MOVES OVERHEAD. ANY SNOW MENTION
WILL DEPEND ON BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS IN DATABASE THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PATCHY MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPING. THESE MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
WIND DIRECTIONS GENERALLY EASTERLY...BUT SPEEDS MAY BE LIGHTER
THAN FORECAST THIS EVENING.
PERIODS OF LIFR POSSIBLY...ALTHO NOT HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS. BEST CHANCE AFTER 21Z MONDAY.
OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY...SUB-VFR...PDS OF IFR LIKELY. GUSTY E-NE WINDS.
TUESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...SUB VFR POSSIBLE EARLY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS IN THE PM.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA UP FOR ALL OCEAN ZONES...WITH WINDS AND SEAS RAMPING UP
AS PRES GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN UP BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH...AND A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW. QUIET CONDITIONS ON THE
SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS WILL BE SHORT LIVED.
E-NE FLOW WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS
THROUGH MON NIGHT...WITH MAX OCEAN SEAS 9 OR 10 FT...JUST SHY OF
WAVEWATCH VALUES. GALES UNLIKELY TO OCCUR...BUT IT COULD BE A CLOSE
CALL ON THE FAR EASTERN OCEAN WATERS LATE MON NIGHT OR EARLY TUE
MORNING AS THE COASTAL LOW PASSES BY. PROBABILITY OF GALES LESS THAN
50 PERCENT ATTM...SO DID NOT ISSUE A WATCH.
SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY
ON TUE AND POSSIBLY INTO TUE NIGHT...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BUT SEAS
SLOW TO SUBSIDE AFTER THE LOW PASSES. SCA CONDITIONS MAY ALSO
CONTINUE AT LEAST INTO TUE MORNING ON THE EASTERN SOUND/BAYS.
WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST WED NIGHT...AND EAST THURSDAY AS INLAND
LOW/FRONT NEARS. IF COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF SE/MID ATLC COAST LATER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS AS THEY BACK TO
THE NORTH. WINDS BACK FURTHER TO THE WEST/NW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
THE LOW DEEPENS AND TRACKS JUST TO THE NORTH. SPEEDS WILL PICK UP
QUITE A BIT.
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SEAS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS COASTAL
LOW IMPACTS THE AREA WATERS. WAVE WATCH III OUTPUT SEEMS REASONABLE.
EASTERN WATERS ON FRIDAY WILL OBSERVE HIGHEST SEAS DUE TO STRONG
WEST FETCH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
QPF FOR THE UPCOMING EVENT CALLS FOR 1/2 INCH MOST OF THE AREA...AND
1/2 TO 3/4 INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST CT AND EASTER LONG ISLAND.
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE THU AND FRI. NO HYDROLOGIC
PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
36 TO 48 HOUR PERIOD OF E-NE WINDS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WATER
LEVELS AROUND 2 FT ABOVE NORMAL. THE CURRENT TIDE CYCLES ARE
INCREASING...BUT ARE NOT AT ASTRONOMICAL HIGHS UNTIL NEXT WEEK.
BASED ON CURRENT LEVELS...2.5 TO 3 FT IS NEEDED FOR MINOR FLOODING
FOR BOTH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
THEREFORE NO PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME. THE SITUATION
WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG
NEAR TERM...BG/PW
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...BS/PW
MARINE...BG/PW
HYDROLOGY...BG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BS
000
FXUS61 KOKX 230011
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
711 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL HEAD NORTHEAST JUST OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AND THEN PASS SOUTHEAST
OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
TRICKY FORECAST TONIGHT RE SKY COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE. PATCHES OF STRATOCU THAT MOVED WSW INTO CT AND LONG
ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED...BUT WITH EVENTUAL
COOLING BENEATH A LOW LEVEL INVERSION THINK THEY WILL GAIN THE UPPER
HAND...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW
VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES...INDICATIVE OF MODEST WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. E-NE WINDS STAYING UP TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP
RADIATIONAL COOLING AT BAY...WITH MINS AOA 12Z MAV GUIDANCE...WITH
MID/UPPER 30S WELL INLAND AND LOWER/MID 40S IN URBAN AND
COASTAL SECTIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE COME AROUND TO SOME AGREEMENT RE THE
EVENTUAL TRACK OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVLOPING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TONIGHT...AND MOVING SLOWLY UP THE COAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUE. THE 12Z GFS/RGEM/ECMWF WERE ALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT...WITH THE
ECMWF JUST A TAD WEAKER/SLOWER...WHILE THE NAM WAS A BIT FARTHER
WEST. DISCOUNTED GEFS AND SREF MEAN SOLUTIONS AS THEY APPEARED TOO
SUPPRESSED...NOT GIVING ENOUGH CREDENCE TO REDEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW
FARTHER NORTHEAST LATE MON NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS A RESULT SIDED WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND
WEAKER GFS SOLUTION WHICH CLOSELY PARALLELS THE ECMWF...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING MON ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...THEN CATEGORICAL POP WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN MON
NIGHT. FCST MODELS APPEAR TOO QUICK TO DRY THINGS OUT ON TUE...AND
THINK ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT VIA CYCLONIC FLOW...EVEN
SOME MODEST OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS LONG ISLAND...
WILL HANG BACK TO PRODUCE MORE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THROUGH
TUE MORNING.
SKY COVER AND TEMPS ARE PROBLEMATIC FOR TUE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. SIDED WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND MILDER TEMPS...BUT COULD
JUST AS EASILY ENVISION CLEARING SKIES...WITH BOTH LOWER TEMPS AND
SOME FOG VIA RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LINGERING GROUND MOISTURE. A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS ON TAP FOR WED BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO
ARRIVE WITH SOME LOW CHANCE POP LATE IN THE DAY OR DURING THE EARLY
EVENING.
FOR TEMPS...DURING THE PRECIP EVENT BLENDED 12Z MAV AND NAM 2M TEMPS
TO YIELD TEMPS COOLER THAN GUIDANCE. SIDED WITH TEMPS WARMER THAN
12Z MAV GUIDANCE TUE NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS ALLUDED
TO ABOVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOSED LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS SFC LOW TRACKS JUST AHEAD OF IT. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA...AND ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THIS LOW. AS SUCH...AMPLIFICATION OF THIS LOW TAKES PLACE AS IT
PLOWS TOWARD THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. ONE WOULD EXPECT A SFC
LOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLC STATES AND MOVE NORTHWARD
TO A POSITION JUST OFF THE COAST. THIS LOW SHOULD BECOME PRIMARY LOW
IN TIME...WITH DEEPENING OCCURRING OVER NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY.
GGEM DOES NOT OFFER THIS SCENARIO...WITH NOT MUCH COASTAL
DEVELOPMENT EVIDENT.
AS SUCH...GLOBAL MODELS OFFER SOME DIFFERENCES WITH HANDLING OF THIS
COMPLEX SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
TIME FRAME. EXACT DETAILS STILL HAZY...AND EC/HPC FOLLOWED THIS TIME
FRAME.
WOULD EXPECT AN INCREASE IN POPS WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD QPF NOT ANTICIPATED QUITE YET. RAIN CHANCES WOULD
CONTINUE FRIDAY...WITH POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT BY THE WEEKEND AS DEEPER
NORTHWEST FLOW TAKES HOLD. COULD BE WINDY THOUGH BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
AS THE SFC LOW PASSES NORTH AND UPPER LOW MOVES EAST. LINGERING
INSTABILITY POPS WARRANTED INTO SAT...WITH DRYING THEREAFTER.
AS FOR ANY MIXED PRECIP...IT WILL BE COLD ALOFT BY THE WEEKEND (FRI
NIGHT AND SAT) AS UPPER COLD POOL MOVES OVERHEAD. ANY SNOW MENTION
WILL DEPEND ON BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS IN DATABASE THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR THIS EVENING OUTSIDE PATCHY MVFR STRATUS. NORTHERN EDGE OF
LOWER CIGS CLOSE TO SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND BUT SAT IMAGERY
INDICATES IT MOVING AWAY.
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP PER TAFS...BUT TIMING IS A LITTLE
UNCERTAIN. BKN-OVC DECK MAY TAKE A FEW HOURS TO DEVELOP...AS
INDICATED BY TEMPO GROUPS.
WIND DIRECTIONS GENERALLY EASTERLY...BUT SPEEDS MAY BE LIGHTER
THAN FORECAST THIS EVENING.
PERIODS OF LIFR POSSIBLY...ALTHO NOT HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS. BEST CHANCE AFTER 21Z MONDAY.
OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY...SUB-VFR...PDS OF IFR LIKELY. GUSTY E-NE WINDS.
TUESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...SUB VFR POSSIBLE EARLY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS IN THE PM.
&&
.MARINE...
HAVE STARTED SCA RIGHT OFF THE BAT FOR ALL OCEAN ZONES. WINDS/SEAS
JUST SHY OF CRITERIA ATTM...BUT SHOULD RAMP ABOVE THIS EVENING AS
PRES GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN UP BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH...AND A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW. QUIET CONDITIONS ON THE
SOUDFN/HARBOR/BAYS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE LONGER...SO DELAYED SCA
START TIME THERE UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
E-NE FLOW WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS
THROUGH MON NIGHT...WITH MAX OCEAN SEAS 9 OR 10 FT...JUST SHY OF
WAVEWATCH VALUES. GALES UNLIKELY TO OCCUR...BUT IT COULD BE A CLOSE
CALL ON THE FAR EASTERN OCEAN WATERS LATE MON NIGHT OR EARLY TUE
MORNING AS THE COASTAL LOW PASSES BY. PROBABILITY OF GALES LESS THAN
50 PERCENT ATTM...SO DID NOT ISSUE A WATCH.
SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY
ON TUE AND POSSIBLY INTO TUE NIGHT...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BUT SEAS
SLOW TO SUBSIDE AFTER THE LOW PASSES. SCA CONDITIONS MAY ALSO
CONTINUE AT LEAST INTO TUE MORNING ON THE EASTERN SOUND/BAYS.
WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST WED NIGHT...AND EAST THURSDAY AS INLAND
LOW/FRONT NEARS. IF COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF SE/MID ATLC COAST LATER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS AS THEY BACK TO
THE NORTH. WINDS BACK FURTHER TO THE WEST/NW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
THE LOW DEEPENS AND TRACKS JUST TO THE NORTH. SPEEDS WILL PICK UP
QUITE A BIT.
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SEAS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS COASTAL
LOW IMPACTS THE AREA WATERS. WAVE WATCH III OUTPUT SEEMS REASONABLE.
EASTERN WATERS ON FRIDAY WILL OBSERVE HIGHEST SEAS DUE TO STRONG
WEST FETCH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
QPF FOR THE UPCOMING EVENT CALLS FOR 1/2 INCH MOST OF THE AREA...AND
1/2 TO 3/4 INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST CT AND EASTER LONG ISLAND.
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE THU AND FRI. NO HYDROLOGIC
PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
36 TO 48 HOUR PERIOD OF E-NE WINDS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WATER
LEVELS AROUND 2 FT ABOVE NORMAL. THE CURRENT TIDE CYCLES ARE
INCREASING...BUT ARE NOT AT ASTRONOMICAL HIGHS UNTIL NEXT WEEK.
BASED ON CURRENT LEVELS...2.5 TO 3 FT IS NEEDED FOR MINOR FLOODING
FOR BOTH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
THEREFORE NO PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME. THE SITUATION
WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...BS
MARINE...BG/PW
HYDROLOGY...BG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BS
000
FXUS61 KOKX 222139
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
439 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL HEAD NORTHEAST JUST OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AND THEN PASS SOUTHEAST
OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TRICKY FORECAST TONIGHT RE SKY COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE. PATCHES OF STRATOCU THAT MOVED WSW INTO CT AND LONG
ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED...BUT WITH EVENTUAL
COOLING BENEATH A LOW LEVEL INVERSION THINK THEY WILL GAIN THE UPPER
HAND...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW
VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES...INDICATIVE OF MODEST WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. E-NE WINDS STAYING UP TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP
RADIATIONAL COOLING AT BAY...WITH MINS AOA 12Z MAV GUIDANCE...WITH
MID/UPPER 30S WELL INLAND AND LOWER/MID 40S IN URBAN AND
COASTAL SECTIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE COME AROUND TO SOME AGREEMENT RE THE
EVENTUAL TRACK OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVLOPING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TONIGHT...AND MOVING SLOWLY UP THE COAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUE. THE 12Z GFS/RGEM/ECMWF WERE ALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT...WITH THE
ECMWF JUST A TAD WEAKER/SLOWER...WHILE THE NAM WAS A BIT FARTHER
WEST. DISCOUNTED GEFS AND SREF MEAN SOLUTIONS AS THEY APPEARED TOO
SUPPRESSED...NOT GIVING ENOUGH CREDENCE TO REDEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW
FARTHER NORTHEAST LATE MON NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS A RESULT SIDED WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND
WEAKER GFS SOLUTION WHICH CLOSELY PARALLELS THE ECMWF...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING MON ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...THEN CATEGORICAL POP WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN MON
NIGHT. FCST MODELS APPEAR TOO QUICK TO DRY THINGS OUT ON TUE...AND
THINK ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT VIA CYCLONIC FLOW...EVEN
SOME MODEST OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS LONG ISLAND...
WILL HANG BACK TO PRODUCE MORE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THROUGH
TUE MORNING.
SKY COVER AND TEMPS ARE PROBLEMATIC FOR TUE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. SIDED WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND MILDER TEMPS...BUT COULD
JUST AS EASILY ENVISION CLEARING SKIES...WITH BOTH LOWER TEMPS AND
SOME FOG VIA RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LINGERING GROUND MOISTURE. A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS ON TAP FOR WED BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO
ARRIVE WITH SOME LOW CHANCE POP LATE IN THE DAY OR DURING THE EARLY
EVENING.
FOR TEMPS...DURING THE PRECIP EVENT BLENDED 12Z MAV AND NAM 2M TEMPS
TO YIELD TEMPS COOLER THAN GUIDANCE. SIDED WITH TEMPS WARMER THAN
12Z MAV GUIDANCE TUE NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS ALLUDED
TO ABOVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOSED LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS SFC LOW TRACKS JUST AHEAD OF IT. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA...AND ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THIS LOW. AS SUCH...AMPLIFICATION OF THIS LOW TAKES PLACE AS IT
PLOWS TOWARD THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. ONE WOULD EXPECT A SFC
LOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLC STATES AND MOVE NORTHWARD
TO A POSITION JUST OFF THE COAST. THIS LOW SHOULD BECOME PRIMARY LOW
IN TIME...WITH DEEPENING OCCURRING OVER NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY.
GGEM DOES NOT OFFER THIS SCENARIO...WITH NOT MUCH COASTAL
DEVELOPMENT EVIDENT.
AS SUCH...GLOBAL MODELS OFFER SOME DIFFERENCES WITH HANDLING OF THIS
COMPLEX SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
TIME FRAME. EXACT DETAILS STILL HAZY...AND EC/HPC FOLLOWED THIS TIME
FRAME.
WOULD EXPECT AN INCREASE IN POPS WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD QPF NOT ANTICIPATED QUITE YET. RAIN CHANCES WOULD
CONTINUE FRIDAY...WITH POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT BY THE WEEKEND AS DEEPER
NORTHWEST FLOW TAKES HOLD. COULD BE WINDY THOUGH BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
AS THE SFC LOW PASSES NORTH AND UPPER LOW MOVES EAST. LINGERING
INSTABILITY POPS WARRANTED INTO SAT...WITH DRYING THEREAFTER.
AS FOR ANY MIXED PRECIP...IT WILL BE COLD ALOFT BY THE WEEKEND (FRI
NIGHT AND SAT) AS UPPER COLD POOL MOVES OVERHEAD. ANY SNOW MENTION
WILL DEPEND ON BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS IN DATABASE THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP EARLY
THIS EVENING. THICK ST/SC DECK OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND IS INCHING
WESTWARD. TENDRELS OF ST ALSO DEVELOPING OVER LONG ISLAND SOUND.
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER ABOUT 21Z...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR
SAT TRENDS TO NAIL DOWN TIMING AND INCLUDE IN TAFS.
ONCE CIGS DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT.
WIND DIRECTIONS MAY VARY FROM 350 TO 060 THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE
GENERAL TREND WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE EAST.
OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY PM...SUB-VFR...PDS OF IFR LIKELY. GUSTY E-NE
WINDS.
TUESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY ...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
HAVE STARTED SCA RIGHT OFF THE BAT FOR ALL OCEAN ZONES. WINDS/SEAS
JUST SHY OF CRITERIA ATTM...BUT SHOULD RAMP ABOVE THIS EVENING AS
PRES GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN UP BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH...AND A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW. QUIET CONDITIONS ON THE
SOUDFN/HARBOR/BAYS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE LONGER...SO DELAYED SCA
START TIME THERE UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
E-NE FLOW WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS
THROUGH MON NIGHT...WITH MAX OCEAN SEAS 9 OR 10 FT...JUST SHY OF
WAVEWATCH VALUES. GALES UNLIKELY TO OCCUR...BUT IT COULD BE A CLOSE
CALL ON THE FAR EASTERN OCEAN WATERS LATE MON NIGHT OR EARLY TUE
MORNING AS THE COASTAL LOW PASSES BY. PROBABILITY OF GALES LESS THAN
50 PERCENT ATTM...SO DID NOT ISSUE A WATCH.
SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY
ON TUE AND POSSIBLY INTO TUE NIGHT...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BUT SEAS
SLOW TO SUBSIDE AFTER THE LOW PASSES. SCA CONDITIONS MAY ALSO
CONTINUE AT LEAST INTO TUE MORNING ON THE EASTERN SOUND/BAYS.
WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST WED NIGHT...AND EAST THURSDAY AS INLAND
LOW/FRONT NEARS. IF COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF SE/MID ATLC COAST LATER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS AS THEY BACK TO
THE NORTH. WINDS BACK FURTHER TO THE WEST/NW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
THE LOW DEEPENS AND TRACKS JUST TO THE NORTH. SPEEDS WILL PICK UP
QUITE A BIT.
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SEAS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS COASTAL
LOW IMPACTS THE AREA WATERS. WAVE WATCH III OUTPUT SEEMS REASONABLE.
EASTERN WATERS ON FRIDAY WILL OBSERVE HIGHEST SEAS DUE TO STRONG
WEST FETCH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
QPF FOR THE UPCOMING EVENT CALLS FOR 1/2 INCH MOST OF THE AREA...AND
1/2 TO 3/4 INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST CT AND EASTER LONG ISLAND.
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE THU AND FRI. NO HYDROLOGIC
PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
36 TO 48 HOUR PERIOD OF E-NE WINDS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WATER
LEVELS AROUND 2 FT ABOVE NORMAL. THE CURRENT TIDE CYCLES ARE
INCREASING...BUT ARE NOT AT ASTRONOMICAL HIGHS UNTIL NEXT WEEK.
BASED ON CURRENT LEVELS...2.5 TO 3 FT IS NEEDED FOR MINOR FLOODING
FOR BOTH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
THEREFORE NO PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME. THE SITUATION
WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...BS
MARINE...BG/PW
HYDROLOGY...BG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BS
000
FXUS61 KOKX 222135
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
435 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL HEAD NORTHEAST JUST OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AND THEN PASS SOUTHEAST
OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TRICKY FORECAST TONIGHT RE SKY COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE. PATCHES OF STRATOCU THAT MOVED WSW INTO CT AND LONG
ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED...BUT WITH EVENTUAL
COOLING BENEATH A LOW LEVEL INVERSION THINK THEY WILL GAIN THE UPPER
HAND...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW
VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES...INDICATIVE OF MODEST WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. E-NE WINDS STAYING UP TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP
RADIATIONAL COOLING AT BAY...WITH MINS AOA 12Z MAV GUIDANCE...WITH
MID/UPPER 30S WELL INLAND AND LOWER/MID 40S IN URBAN AND
COASTAL SECTIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE COME AROUND TO SOME AGREEMENT RE THE
EVENTUAL TRACK OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVLOPING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TONIGHT...AND MOVING SLOWLY UP THE COAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUE. THE 12Z GFS/RGEM/ECMWF WERE ALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT...WITH THE
ECMWF JUST A TAD WEAKER/SLOWER...WHILE THE NAM WAS A BIT FARTHER
WEST. DISCOUNTED GEFS AND SREF MEAN SOLUTIONS AS THEY APPEARED TOO
SUPPRESSED...NOT GIVING ENOUGH CREDENCE TO REDEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW
FARTHER NORTHEAST LATE MON NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS A RESULT SIDED WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND
WEAKER GFS SOLUTION WHICH CLOSELY PARALLELS THE ECMWF...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING MON ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...THEN CATEGORICAL POP WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN MON
NIGHT. FCST MODELS APPEAR TOO QUICK TO DRY THINGS OUT ON TUE...AND
THINK ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT VIA CYCLONIC FLOW...EVEN
SOME MODEST OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS LONG ISLAND...
WILL HANG BACK TO PRODUCE MORE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THROUGH
TUE MORNING.
SKY COVER AND TEMPS ARE PROBLEMATIC FOR TUE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. SIDED WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND MILDER TEMPS...BUT COULD
JUST AS EASILY ENVISION CLEARING SKIES...WITH BOTH LOWER TEMPS AND
SOME FOG VIA RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LINGERING GROUND MOISTURE. A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS ON TAP FOR WED BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO
ARRIVE WITH SOME LOW CHANCE POP LATE IN THE DAY OR DURING THE EARLY
EVENING.
FOR TEMPS...DURING THE PRECIP EVENT BLENDED 12Z MAV AND NAM 2M TEMPS
TO YIELD TEMPS COOLER THAN GUIDANCE. SIDED WITH TEMPS WARMER THAN
12Z MAV GUIDANCE TUE NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS ALLUDED
TO ABOVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOSED LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS SFC LOW TRACKS JUST AHEAD OF IT. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA...AND ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THIS LOW. AS SUCH...AMPLIFICATION OF THIS LOW TAKES PLACE AS IT
PLOWS TOWARD THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. ONE WOULD EXPECT A SFC
LOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLC STATES AND MOVE NORTHWARD
TO A POSITION JUST OFF THE COAST. THIS LOW SHOULD BECOME PRIMARY LOW
IN TIME...WITH DEEPENING OCCURRING OVER NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY.
GGEM DOES NOT OFFER THIS SCENARIO...WITH NOT MUCH COASTAL
DEVELOPMENT EVIDENT.
AS SUCH...GLOBAL MODELS OFFER SOME DIFFERENCES WITH HANDLING OF THIS
COMPLEX SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
TIME FRAME. EXACT DETAILS STILL HAZY...AND EC/HPC FOLLOWED THIS TIME
FRAME.
WOULD EXPECT AN INCREASE IN POPS WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD QPF NOT ANTICIPATED QUITE YET. RAIN CHANCES WOULD
CONTINUE FRIDAY...WITH POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT BY THE WEEKEND AS DEEPER
NORTHWEST FLOW TAKES HOLD. COULD BE WINDY THOUGH BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
AS THE SFC LOW PASSES NORTH AND UPPER LOW MOVES EAST. LINGERING
INSTABILITY POPS WARRANTED INTO SAT...WITH DRYING THEREAFTER.
AS FOR ANY MIXED PRECIP...IT WILL BE COLD ALOFT BY THE WEEKEND (FRI
NIGHT AND SAT) AS UPPER COLD POOL MOVES OVERHEAD. ANY SNOW MENTION
WILL DEPEND ON BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS IN DATABASE THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP EARLY
THIS EVENING. THICK ST/SC DECK OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND IS INCHING
WESTWARD. TENDRELS OF ST ALSO DEVELOPING OVER LONG ISLAND SOUND.
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER ABOUT 21Z...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR
SAT TRENDS TO NAIL DOWN TIMING AND INCLUDE IN TAFS.
ONCE CIGS DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT.
WIND DIRECTIONS MAY VARY FROM 350 TO 060 THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE
GENERAL TREND WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE EAST.
OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY PM...SUB-VFR...PDS OF IFR LIKELY. GUSTY E-NE
WINDS.
TUESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY ...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
HAVE STARTED SCA RIGHT OFF THE BAT FOR ALL OCEAN ZONES. WINDS/SEAS
JUST SHY OF CRITERIA ATTM...BUT SHOULD RAMP ABOVE THIS EVENING AS
PRES GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN UP BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH...AND A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW. QUIET CONDITIONS ON THE
SOUDFN/HARBOR/BAYS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE LONGER...SO DELAYED SCA
START TIME THERE UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
E-NE FLOW WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS
THROUGH MON NIGHT...WITH MAX OCEAN SEAS 9 OR 10 FT...JUST SHY OF
WAVEWATCH VALUES. GALES UNLIKELY TO OCCUR...BUT IT COULD BE A CLOSE
CALL ON THE FAR EASTERN OCEAN WATERS LATE MON NIGHT OR EARLY TUE
MORNING AS THE COASTAL LOW PASSES BY. PROBABILITY OF GALES LESS THAN
50 PERCENT ATTM...SO DID NOT ISSUE A WATCH.
SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY
ON TUE AND POSSIBLY INTO TUE NIGHT...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BUT SEAS
SLOW TO SUBSIDE AFTER THE LOW PASSES. SCA CONDITIONS MAY ALSO
CONTINUE AT LEAST INTO TUE MORNING ON THE EASTERN SOUND/BAYS.
WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST WED NIGHT...AND EAST THURSDAY AS INLAND
LOW/FRONT NEARS. IF COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF SE/MID ATLC COAST LATER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS AS THEY BACK TO
THE NORTH. WINDS BACK FURTHER TO THE WEST/NW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
THE LOW DEEPENS AND TRACKS JUST TO THE NORTH. SPEEDS WILL PICK UP
QUITE A BIT.
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SEAS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS COASTAL
LOW IMPACTS THE AREA WATERS. WAVE WATCH III OUTPUT SEEMS REASONABLE.
EASTERN WATERS ON FRIDAY WILL OBSERVE HIGHEST SEAS DUE TO STRONG
WEST FETCH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
QPF FOR THE UPCOMING EVENT CALLS FOR 1/2 INCH MOST OF THE AREA...AND
1/2 TO 3/4 INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST CT AND EASTER LONG ISLAND.
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE THU AND FRI. NO HYDROLOGIC
PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DEPARTURES OF 2.0-2.5 FT AND 2.5-3.0 FT ARE NEEDED FOR THE
HIGHER/LOWER HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON MON/TUE TO PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING. CURRENT GUIDANCE FORECASTS DEPARTURES OF 0.5-1.0 FT...BUT
IS BASED ON A TRACK THAT BOTH FASTER AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA THAN
CURRENT THINKING. EVEN SO...A SLOWER/CLOSER LOW TRACK MAY STILL NOT
PRODUCE DEPARTURES LARGE ENOUGH TO CAUSE COASTAL FLOODING. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS / NEAR TERM / SHORT TERM / HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION / TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BS
MARINE...GOODMAN/PW
000
FXUS61 KOKX 221818
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
118 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND
THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES THROUGH MONDAY...THE SLIDE EAST
INTO MIDWEEK. MEANWHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE
GULF COAST TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY AND MONDAY. THE LOW TRACKS
ALONG THE SEABOARD THROUGH TUESDAY...REACHING THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE
NORTH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE RETREATING TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PROBLEM OF THE DAY CENTERS AROUND STRATOCU MAINLY OVER ORANGE
COUNTY...WHICH FILLED IN VIA DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING THIS MORNING.
EASTERN EDGE IS SHOWING SIGNS OF EROSION AS MIXING DEEPENS...AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR STEWART AIRPORT INDICATE THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL TREND BACK TOWARD PARTLY/MOSTLY
SUNNY. STRATOCU JUST SE OF THE FORKS OF LONG ISLAND MAY REACH THE
SOUTH SHORE...BUT MAKE LITTLE INLAND PROGRESS AS HEATING OVER LAND
PREVENTS MUCH OF AN INLAND PUSH. OKX MORNING SOUNDING AND FORECAST
GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE ALL ON THE SAME PAGE...WITH MAINLY MID 50S...
PERHAPS SOME UPPER 50S IN URBAN NORTHEAST NJ AND PARTS OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. SURFACE LOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST. CLOUDS BEGIN
TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND TRACKS NORTH.
WITH THAT...AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST
NOT EXPECTED TO FALL OFF TOO MUCH...AND INLAND TEMPERATURES TO
FALL OFF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...SO WILL BE LARGE CONTRAST.
MONDAY PRECIPITATION FROM THE COASTAL LOW MOVES IN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING LIGHT RAIN INTO THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES WILL BE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY. TUESDAY BEST LIFT STARTS TO SHIFT EAST
AND LOWER POPS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. GFS A LITTLE FASTER AND
DEEPER WITH THE SURFACE LOW TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND LEANED
TOWARD THE SREF AND NAM. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LIKELY ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT AND INTO LONG ISLAND WITH AREA OF BEST LIFT.
WITH CLOUD COVER...PRECIPITATION...AND EASTERLY WINDS WILL NOT SEE
A LARGE RANGE IN LOWS AND HIGHS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING BUILDS BRIEFLY BETWEEN SYSTEMS WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW
DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO TIMING OF LOWS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AS H5 LOW DROPS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. H3 JET PRODUCES SOME LIFT...BUT FORCING OTHERWISE IS WEAK
AS EVIDENCED BY THE TIME HEIGHTS. WITH MARGINAL MOISTURE...ONLY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. FOCUS SHIFTS TO LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER H5 LOW DROPS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
WITH A COMPLEX REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE. MODELS HINT AT LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...WITH A SECOND LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ALL THOUGH THERE IS A
SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...IT APPEARS A SHOT OF RA ON TRACK
DURING THE PERIOD. MAIN ISSUE MAY TURN OUT TO BE THE WIND IF THE
12Z GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE CLOSE AND A 980 MB LOW OCCLUDES OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP EARLY
THIS EVENING. THICK ST/SC DECK OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND IS INCHING
WESTWARD. TENDRELS OF ST ALSO DEVELOPING OVER LONG ISLAND SOUND.
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER ABOUT 21Z...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR
SAT TRENDS TO NAIL DOWN TIMING AND INCLUDE IN TAFS.
ONCE CIGS DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT.
WIND DIRECTIONS MAY VARY FROM 350 TO 060 THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE
GENERAL TREND WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE EAST.
OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY PM...SUB-VFR...PDS OF IFR LIKELY. GUSTY E-NE
WINDS.
TUESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY ...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
AT 15Z...BUOY 44025 HAD 4-FT SEAS WITH A STEADY 2.3-FT SWELL...AND
NE WINDS AROUND 17 KT. WIND SPEEDS/FETCH SHOULD INCREASE A LITTLE
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH...SO THINK
5-FT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FROM THERE
EAST...SO HAVE RAISED SCA A LITTLE SOONER E OF FIRE ISLAND INLET.
EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT ON ALL WATERS TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN HIGH WEDGED INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE S. SEAS ON THE OCEAN ZONES WILL BUILD TO 4 TO
8 FT BY MONDAY AS A RESULT OF STRENGTHENING NE FLOW.
DEPENDING ON EXACT TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE COASTAL LOW...THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ON THE OCEAN E OF FIRE
ISLAND INLET...AND POSSIBLY A LARGER AREA. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO A WITH GALE WATCH...BUT WILL MENTION
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35 KT AND EXTEND SCA ON COASTAL OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH MON NIGHT. STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY ON LOW TRACK/STRENGTH
THAT NOT AS CONFIDENT OF SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS
MONDAY NIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH TUE NIGHT AS LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE NE.
WHILE WINDS SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS ON ALL WATERS TUE
NIGHT...OCEAN SEAS WILL LIKELY WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE SCA LEVELS
INTO THU.
WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA LEVELS WED INTO THU...WITH REGION IN
BETWEEN POTENTIALLY STRONG COASTAL STORMS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. QPF OF 1/2 NORTH/WEST TO 1 INCH
SOUTH/EAST IS POSSIBLE FROM MON AFTERNOON THROUGH WED.
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE THU AND FRI. NO HYDROLOGIC
PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DEPARTURES OF 2.0-2.5 FT AND 2.5-3.0 FT ARE NEEDED FOR THE
HIGHER/LOWER HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON MON/TUE TO PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING. CURRENT GUIDANCE FORECASTS DEPARTURES OF 0.5-1.0 FT...
BUT IS BASED ON A TRACK THAT BOTH FASTER AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA
THAN CURRENT THINKING. EVEN SO...A SLOWER/CLOSER LOW TRACK MAY
STILL NOT PRODUCE DEPARTURES LARGE ENOUGH TO CAUSE COASTAL
FLOODING. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST MONDAY
FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MET
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BS
MARINE...BG/PFM
HYDROLOGY...MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
000
FXUS61 KOKX 221613
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1113 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND
THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES THROUGH MONDAY...THE SLIDE EAST
INTO MIDWEEK. MEANWHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE
GULF COAST TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY AND MONDAY. THE LOW TRACKS
ALONG THE SEABOARD THROUGH TUESDAY...REACHING THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE
NORTH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE RETREATING TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PROBLEM OF THE DAY CENTERS AROUND STRATOCU MAINLY OVER ORANGE
COUNTY...WHICH FILLED IN VIA DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING THIS MORNING.
EASTERN EDGE IS SHOWING SIGNS OF EROSION AS MIXING DEEPENS...AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR STEWART AIRPORT INDICATE THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL TREND BACK TOWARD PARTLY/MOSTLY
SUNNY. STRATOCU JUST SE OF THE FORKS OF LONG ISLAND MAY REACH THE
SOUTH SHORE...BUT MAKE LITTLE INLAND PROGRESS AS HEATING OVER LAND
PREVENTS MUCH OF AN INLAND PUSH. OKX MORNING SOUNDING AND FORECAST
GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE ALL ON THE SAME PAGE...WITH MAINLY MID 50S...
PERHAPS SOME UPPER 50S IN URBAN NORTHEAST NJ AND PARTS OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. SURFACE LOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST. CLOUDS BEGIN
TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND TRACKS NORTH.
WITH THAT...AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST
NOT EXPECTED TO FALL OFF TOO MUCH...AND INLAND TEMPERATURES TO
FALL OFF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...SO WILL BE LARGE CONTRAST.
MONDAY PRECIPITATION FROM THE COASTAL LOW MOVES IN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING LIGHT RAIN INTO THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES WILL BE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY. TUESDAY BEST LIFT STARTS TO SHIFT EAST
AND LOWER POPS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. GFS A LITTLE FASTER AND
DEEPER WITH THE SURFACE LOW TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND LEANED
TOWARD THE SREF AND NAM. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LIKELY ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT AND INTO LONG ISLAND WITH AREA OF BEST LIFT.
WITH CLOUD COVER...PRECIPITATION...AND EASTERLY WINDS WILL NOT SEE
A LARGE RANGE IN LOWS AND HIGHS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING BUILDS BRIEFLY BETWEEN SYSTEMS WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW
DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO TIMING OF LOWS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AS H5 LOW DROPS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. H3 JET PRODUCES SOME LIFT...BUT FORCING OTHERWISE IS WEAK
AS EVIDENCED BY THE TIME HEIGHTS. WITH MARGINAL MOISTURE...ONLY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. FOCUS SHIFTS TO LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER H5 LOW DROPS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
WITH A COMPLEX REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE. MODELS HINT AT LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...WITH A SECOND LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ALL THOUGH THERE IS A
SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...IT APPEARS A SHOT OF RA ON TRACK
DURING THE PERIOD. MAIN ISSUE MAY TURN OUT TO BE THE WIND IF THE
12Z GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE CLOSE AND A 980 MB LOW OCCLUDES OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SKC..EXCEPT FOR A PESKY PATCH OF ST
AT ABOUT 2500 AGL. IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER...IT WOULD MOVE THROUGH
JFK/LGA AT ABOUT 17Z. CURRENT SAT IMAGERY INDICATE THAT IT IS
BREAKING UP...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE 15Z TAF UPDATE FOR NOW.
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS WITH THE 15Z UPDATE...BASED ON CENTER FIELD
WIND REPORTS FROM KEWR.
OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY PM...SUB-VFR...PDS OF IFR LIKELY. GUSTY E-NE
WINDS.
TUESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
AT 15Z...BUOY 44025 HAD 4-FT SEAS WITH A STEADY 2.3-FT SWELL...AND
NE WINDS AROUND 17 KT. WIND SPEEDS/FETCH SHOULD INCREASE A LITTLE
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH...SO THINK
5-FT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FROM THERE
EAST...SO HAVE RAISED SCA A LITTLE SOONER E OF FIRE ISLAND INLET.
EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT ON ALL WATERS TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN HIGH WEDGED INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE S. SEAS ON THE OCEAN ZONES WILL BUILD TO 4 TO
8 FT BY MONDAY AS A RESULT OF STRENGTHENING NE FLOW.
DEPENDING ON EXACT TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE COASTAL LOW...THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ON THE OCEAN E OF FIRE
ISLAND INLET...AND POSSIBLY A LARGER AREA. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO A WITH GALE WATCH...BUT WILL MENTION
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35 KT AND EXTEND SCA ON COASTAL OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH MON NIGHT. STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY ON LOW TRACK/STRENGTH
THAT NOT AS CONFIDENT OF SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS
MONDAY NIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH TUE NIGHT AS LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE NE.
WHILE WINDS SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS ON ALL WATERS TUE
NIGHT...OCEAN SEAS WILL LIKELY WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE SCA LEVELS
INTO THU.
WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA LEVELS WED INTO THU...WITH REGION IN
BETWEEN POTENTIALLY STRONG COASTAL STORMS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. QPF OF 1/2 NORTH/WEST TO 1 INCH
SOUTH/EAST IS POSSIBLE FROM MON AFTERNOON THROUGH WED.
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE THU AND FRI. NO HYDROLOGIC
PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DEPARTURES OF 2.0-2.5 FT AND 2.5-3.0 FT ARE NEEDED FOR THE
HIGHER/LOWER HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON MON/TUE TO PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING. CURRENT GUIDANCE FORECASTS DEPARTURES OF 0.5-1.0 FT...
BUT IS BASED ON A TRACK THAT BOTH FASTER AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA
THAN CURRENT THINKING. EVEN SO...A SLOWER/CLOSER LOW TRACK MAY
STILL NOT PRODUCE DEPARTURES LARGE ENOUGH TO CAUSE COASTAL
FLOODING. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST MONDAY
FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR ANZ355.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KOKX 221528
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1028 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND
THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES THROUGH MONDAY...THE SLIDE EAST
INTO MIDWEEK. MEANWHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE
GULF COAST TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY AND MONDAY. THE LOW TRACKS
ALONG THE SEABOARD THROUGH TUESDAY...REACHING THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE
NORTH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE RETREATING TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. WINDS SHIFT FROM THE NORTH TO THE
NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH. AREA OF STRATO CU JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO NORTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA NOT MAKING ANY PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH...AND WILL
LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. DESPITE SUNSHINE...EASTERLY FLOW
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. SURFACE LOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST. CLOUDS BEGIN
TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND TRACKS NORTH.
WITH THAT...AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST
NOT EXPECTED TO FALL OFF TOO MUCH...AND INLAND TEMPERATURES TO
FALL OFF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...SO WILL BE LARGE CONTRAST.
MONDAY PRECIPITATION FROM THE COASTAL LOW MOVES IN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING LIGHT RAIN INTO THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES WILL BE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY. TUESDAY BEST LIFT STARTS TO SHIFT EAST
AND LOWER POPS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. GFS A LITTLE FASTER AND
DEEPER WITH THE SURFACE LOW TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND LEANED
TOWARD THE SREF AND NAM. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LIKELY ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT AND INTO LONG ISLAND WITH AREA OF BEST LIFT.
WITH CLOUD COVER...PRECIPITATION...AND EASTERLY WINDS WILL NOT SEE
A LARGE RANGE IN LOWS AND HIGHS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING BUILDS BRIEFLY BETWEEN SYSTEMS WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW
DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO TIMING OF LOWS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AS H5 LOW DROPS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. H3 JET PRODUCES SOME LIFT...BUT FORCING OTHERWISE IS WEAK
AS EVIDENCED BY THE TIME HEIGHTS. WITH MARGINAL MOISTURE...ONLY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. FOCUS SHIFTS TO LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER H5 LOW DROPS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
WITH A COMPLEX REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE. MODELS HINT AT LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...WITH A SECOND LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ALL THOUGH THERE IS A
SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...IT APPEARS A SHOT OF RA ON TRACK
DURING THE PERIOD. MAIN ISSUE MAY TURN OUT TO BE THE WIND IF THE
12Z GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE CLOSE AND A 980 MB LOW OCCLUDES OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SKC..EXCEPT FOR A PESKY PATCH OF ST
AT ABOUT 2500 AGL. IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER...IT WOULD MOVE THROUGH
JFK/LGA AT ABOUT 17Z. CURRENT SAT IMAGERY INDICATE THAT IT IS
BREAKING UP...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE 15Z TAF UPDATE FOR NOW.
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS WITH THE 15Z UPDATE...BASED ON CENTER FIELD
WIND REPORTS FROM KEWR.
OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY PM...SUB-VFR...PDS OF IFR LIKELY. GUSTY E-NE
WINDS.
TUESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
EXPECT CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ON
THE WATERS...THOUGH COULD SEE SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN (STRONGEST FURTHER S FROM LONG ISLAND
(FURTHEST FROM CENTER OF HIGH).
EXPECT GUSTS TO 25-30 KT ALL WATERS TONIGHT AND MONDAY IN RESPONSE
TO CONTINUED TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH WEDGED INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN US AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE S. SEAS ON
THE OCEAN ZONES WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 8 FT BY MONDAY AS A RESULT OF
STRENGTHENING NE FLOW.
DEPENDING ON EXACT TRACK/STRENGTH OF COASTAL LOW THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE EASTERN TWO COASTAL OCEAN
ZONES (AND POSSIBLY A LARGER AREA)...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH
GALE WATCH...BUT AM CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
35 KT AND EXTEND SCA ON COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
(STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY ON LOW TRACK/STRENGTH THAT NOT AS
CONFIDENT OF SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS MONDAY NIGHT).
THE STRONG NE WINDS (POSSIBLY WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER EASTERN
TWO COASTAL OCEAN ZONES (AND A CHANCE FOR EVEN GREATER COVERAGE)
WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH TUE NIGHT AS LOW
PULLS AWAY TO THE NE. WHILE WINDS SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS ON
ALL WATERS TUE NIGHT...THE SEAS OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN ZONES WILL
NOT. THESE SEAS LIKELY WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE SCA LEVELS INTO
THURSDAY.
WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY WITH REGION IN
BETWEEN POTENTIAL STRONG COASTAL STORMS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A HALF INCH...NORTH AND WEST...TO ONE
INCH...SOUTHEAST...IS POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CURRENT COASTAL FLOODING GUIDANCE WOULD NOT SUGGEST ANY FLOOD
THREAT...HOWEVER IT IS BASED ON THE MODEL THAT IS FURTHEST OUT TO
SEA AND MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THE COASTAL STORM MONDAY-WEDNESDAY. IF
STORM TAKES THE CURRENT CONSENSUS IDEA OF A TRACK THAT IS CLOSER TO
THE COAST AND SLOWER THAN THE MODEL USED TO MAKE THE STORM SURGE
FORECAST...WOULD SEE LARGER DEPARTURES THAN NORMAL THAN GUIDANCE
CURRENTLY SUGGESTS. FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING MONDAY-TUESDAY YOU
WOULD NEED DEPARTURES OF 2-2.5 FT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE HIGHER OF THE
TWO HIGH TIDES AND 2.5-3 FT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LOWER OF THE TWO
HIGH TIDES. CURRENT GUIDANCE ONLY SUGGESTS DEPARTURES OF 0.5-1
FT...SO EVEN A SLOWER/CLOSER TO THE COAST SCENARIO MAY MOT PRODUCE
LARGE ENOUGH DEPARTURES TO CAUSE COASTAL FLOODING. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST MONDAY
FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BS
MARINE...PFM
HYDROLOGY...MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
000
FXUS61 KOKX 221137
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
637 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND
THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES THROUGH MONDAY...THE SLIDE EAST
INTO MIDWEEK. MEANWHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE
GULF COAST TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY AND MONDAY. THE LOW TRACKS
ALONG THE SEABOARD THROUGH TUESDAY...REACHING THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE
NORTH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE RETREATING TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. WINDS SHIFT FROM THE NORTH TO THE
NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH. AREA OF STRATO CU JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO NORTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA NOT MAKING ANY PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH...AND WILL
LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. DESPITE SUNSHINE...EASTERLY FLOW
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. SURFACE LOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST. CLOUDS BEGIN
TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND TRACKS NORTH.
WITH THAT...AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST
NOT EXPECTED TO FALL OFF TOO MUCH...AND INLAND TEMPERATURES TO
FALL OFF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...SO WILL BE LARGE CONTRAST.
MONDAY PRECIPITATION FROM THE COASTAL LOW MOVES IN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING LIGHT RAIN INTO THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES WILL BE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY. TUESDAY BEST LIFT STARTS TO SHIFT EAST
AND LOWER POPS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. GFS A LITTLE FASTER AND
DEEPER WITH THE SURFACE LOW TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND LEANED
TOWARD THE SREF AND NAM. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LIKELY ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT AND INTO LONG ISLAND WITH AREA OF BEST LIFT.
WITH CLOUD COVER...PRECIPITATION...AND EASTERLY WINDS WILL NOT SEE
A LARGE RANGE IN LOWS AND HIGHS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING BUILDS BRIEFLY BETWEEN SYSTEMS WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW
DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO TIMING OF LOWS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AS H5 LOW DROPS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. H3 JET PRODUCES SOME LIFT...BUT FORCING OTHERWISE IS WEAK
AS EVIDENCED BY THE TIME HEIGHTS. WITH MARGINAL MOISTURE...ONLY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. FOCUS SHIFTS TO LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER H5 LOW DROPS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
WITH A COMPLEX REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE. MODELS HINT AT LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...WITH A SECOND LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ALL THOUGH THERE IS A
SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...IT APPEARS A SHOT OF RA ON TRACK
DURING THE PERIOD. MAIN ISSUE MAY TURN OUT TO BE THE WIND IF THE
12Z GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE CLOSE AND A 980 MB LOW OCCLUDES OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR. SKC WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY. PERSISTENT
NE FLOW WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CEILINGS
OVERNIGHT...WITH ISOLATED IFR (MAINLY AT EASTERN TERMINALS AND KSWF).
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME NE 5-10 KT THIS MORNING...WITH
DIRECTION VARYING FROM 030-070 THROUGH TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...SUB-VFR.
TUESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
EXPECT CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ON
THE WATERS...THOUGH COULD SEE SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN (STRONGEST FURTHER S FROM LONG ISLAND
(FURTHEST FROM CENTER OF HIGH).
EXPECT GUSTS TO 25-30 KT ALL WATERS TONIGHT AND MONDAY IN RESPONSE
TO CONTINUED TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH WEDGED INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN US AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE S. SEAS ON
THE OCEAN ZONES WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 8 FT BY MONDAY AS A RESULT OF
STRENGTHENING NE FLOW.
DEPENDING ON EXACT TRACK/STRENGTH OF COASTAL LOW THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE EASTERN TWO COASTAL OCEAN
ZONES (AND POSSIBLY A LARGER AREA)...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH
GALE WATCH...BUT AM CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
35 KT AND EXTEND SCA ON COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
(STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY ON LOW TRACK/STRENGTH THAT NOT AS
CONFIDENT OF SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS MONDAY NIGHT).
THE STRONG NE WINDS (POSSIBLY WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER EASTERN
TWO COASTAL OCEAN ZONES (AND A CHANCE FOR EVEN GREATER COVERAGE)
WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH TUE NIGHT AS LOW
PULLS AWAY TO THE NE. WHILE WINDS SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS ON
ALL WATERS TUE NIGHT...THE SEAS OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN ZONES WILL
NOT. THESE SEAS LIKELY WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE SCA LEVELS INTO
THURSDAY.
WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY WITH REGION IN
BETWEEN POTENTIAL STRONG COASTAL STORMS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A HALF INCH...NORTH AND WEST...TO ONE
INCH...SOUTHEAST...IS POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CURRENT COASTAL FLOODING GUIDANCE WOULD NOT SUGGEST ANY FLOOD
THREAT...HOWEVER IT IS BASED ON THE MODEL THAT IS FURTHEST OUT TO
SEA AND MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THE COASTAL STORM MONDAY-WEDNESDAY. IF
STORM TAKES THE CURRENT CONSENSUS IDEA OF A TRACK THAT IS CLOSER TO
THE COAST AND SLOWER THAN THE MODEL USED TO MAKE THE STORM SURGE
FORECAST...WOULD SEE LARGER DEPARTURES THAN NORMAL THAN GUIDANCE
CURRENTLY SUGGESTS. FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING MONDAY-TUESDAY YOU
WOULD NEED DEPARTURES OF 2-2.5 FT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE HIGHER OF THE
TWO HIGH TIDES AND 2.5-3 FT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LOWER OF THE TWO
HIGH TIDES. CURRENT GUIDANCE ONLY SUGGESTS DEPARTURES OF 0.5-1
FT...SO EVEN A SLOWER/CLOSER TO THE COAST SCENARIO MAY MOT PRODUCE
LARGE ENOUGH DEPARTURES TO CAUSE COASTAL FLOODING. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST MONDAY
FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS AND NEAR/SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION/MARINE...MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MALOIT
000
FXUS61 KOKX 221026
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
526 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND
THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES THROUGH MONDAY...THE SLIDE EAST
INTO MIDWEEK. MEANWHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE
GULF COAST TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY AND MONDAY. THE LOW TRACKS
ALONG THE SEABOARD THROUGH TUESDAY...REACHING THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE
NORTH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE RETREATING TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. WINDS SHIFT FROM THE NORTH TO THE
NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH. AREA OF STRATO CU JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO NORTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA NOT MAKING ANY PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH...AND WILL
LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. DESPITE SUNSHINE...EASTERLY FLOW
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. SURFACE LOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST. CLOUDS BEGIN
TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND TRACKS NORTH.
WITH THAT...AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST
NOT EXPECTED TO FALL OFF TOO MUCH...AND INLAND TEMPERATURES TO
FALL OFF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...SO WILL BE LARGE CONTRAST.
MONDAY PRECIPITATION FROM THE COASTAL LOW MOVES IN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING LIGHT RAIN INTO THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES WILL BE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY. TUESDAY BEST LIFT STARTS TO SHIFT EAST
AND LOWER POPS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. GFS A LITTLE FASTER AND
DEEPER WITH THE SURFACE LOW TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND LEANED
TOWARD THE SREF AND NAM. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LIKELY ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT AND INTO LONG ISLAND WITH AREA OF BEST LIFT.
WITH CLOUD COVER...PRECIPITATION...AND EASTERLY WINDS WILL NOT SEE
A LARGE RANGE IN LOWS AND HIGHS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING BUILDS BRIEFLY BETWEEN SYSTEMS WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW
DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO TIMING OF LOWS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AS H5 LOW DROPS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. H3 JET PRODUCES SOME LIFT...BUT FORCING OTHERWISE IS WEAK
AS EVIDENCED BY THE TIME HEIGHTS. WITH MARGINAL MOISTURE...ONLY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. FOCUS SHIFTS TO LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER H5 LOW DROPS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
WITH A COMPLEX REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE. MODELS HINT AT LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...WITH A SECOND LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ALL THOUGH THERE IS A
SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...IT APPEARS A SHOT OF RA ON TRACK
DURING THE PERIOD. MAIN ISSUE MAY TURN OUT TO BE THE WIND IF THE
12Z GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE CLOSE AND A 980 MB LOW OCCLUDES OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR TODAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
VEER NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.
THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES TONIGHT IN
NORTHEAST FLOW.
OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SUNDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE SUB VFR.
MONDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...SUB-VFR LIKELY.
TUESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
EXPECT CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ON
THE WATERS...THOUGH COULD SEE SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN (STRONGEST FURTHER S FROM LONG ISLAND
(FURTHEST FROM CENTER OF HIGH).
EXPECT GUSTS TO 25-30 KT ALL WATERS TONIGHT AND MONDAY IN RESPONSE
TO CONTINUED TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH WEDGED INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN US AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE S. SEAS ON
THE OCEAN ZONES WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 8 FT BY MONDAY AS A RESULT OF
STRENGTHENING NE FLOW.
DEPENDING ON EXACT TRACK/STRENGTH OF COASTAL LOW THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE EASTERN TWO COASTAL OCEAN
ZONES (AND POSSIBLY A LARGER AREA)...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH
GALE WATCH...BUT AM CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
35 KT AND EXTEND SCA ON COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
(STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY ON LOW TRACK/STRENGTH THAT NOT AS
CONFIDENT OF SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS MONDAY NIGHT).
THE STRONG NE WINDS (POSSIBLY WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER EASTERN
TWO COASTAL OCEAN ZONES (AND A CHANCE FOR EVEN GREATER COVERAGE)
WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH TUE NIGHT AS LOW
PULLS AWAY TO THE NE. WHILE WINDS SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS ON
ALL WATERS TUE NIGHT...THE SEAS OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN ZONES WILL
NOT. THESE SEAS LIKELY WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE SCA LEVELS INTO
THURSDAY.
WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY WITH REGION IN
BETWEEN POTENTIAL STRONG COASTAL STORMS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A HALF INCH...NORTH AND WEST...TO ONE
INCH...SOUTHEAST...IS POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CURRENT COASTAL FLOODING GUIDANCE WOULD NOT SUGGEST ANY FLOOD
THREAT...HOWEVER IT IS BASED ON THE MODEL THAT IS FURTHEST OUT TO
SEA AND MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THE COASTAL STORM MONDAY-WEDNESDAY. IF
STORM TAKES THE CURRENT CONSENSUS IDEA OF A TRACK THAT IS CLOSER TO
THE COAST AND SLOWER THAN THE MODEL USED TO MAKE THE STORM SURGE
FORECAST...WOULD SEE LARGER DEPARTURES THAN NORMAL THAN GUIDANCE
CURRENTLY SUGGESTS. FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING MONDAY-TUESDAY YOU
WOULD NEED DEPARTURES OF 2-2.5 FT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE HIGHER OF THE
TWO HIGH TIDES AND 2.5-3 FT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LOWER OF THE TWO
HIGH TIDES. CURRENT GUIDANCE ONLY SUGGESTS DEPARTURES OF 0.5-1
FT...SO EVEN A SLOWER/CLOSER TO THE COAST SCENARIO MAY MOT PRODUCE
LARGE ENOUGH DEPARTURES TO CAUSE COASTAL FLOODING. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST MONDAY
FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...PFM
MARINE...PFM
HYDROLOGY...MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PFM
000
FXUS61 KOKX 220527
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1227 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...AND INTO THE
MARITIMES THOROUGH MONDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST SUNDAY...THEN MOVE UP COAST
MONDAY...PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE TRI-STATE TO CLOSE THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AS WINDS DIMINISH. THIS COMBINATION
WILL RESULT IN DECENT IF NOT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR AT
LEAST A FEW HOURS TONIGHT. FORECAST LOWS...AND DEWPOINTS APPROACH
THE MID 30S IN SPOTS...SO EARLY MORNING FOG IS A POSSIBILITY. THIS
IS NOT IN THE GRIDS AT THIS POINT GIVEN THAT DECOUPLING SHOULD
ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS AS NE WINDS PICK UP A BIT.
UNDERCUT MOS IN GENERAL IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS ACROSS
ORANGE/PUTNAM COUNTY AND THE PINE BARRENS OF LI. PERSISTENCE AND
MOS VERY CLOSE ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP LAYER RIDGE PASSES NORTH OF THE CWA SUNDAY...ALLOWING
EASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE TO INCREASE. ALL IN ALL A DECENT
DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS WITH
EAST WINDS.
TRICKY TEMP FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT...AS COLD AIR DAMMING AND LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH AND EAST. THERE
MAY AGAIN BE A PERIOD OF DECOUPLING...THUS FORECAST LOW TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO END UP CLOSE TO TONIGHT`S. THIS PERIOD IS PERHAPS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE TEMP FORECAST OF THE SHORT TERM. IF SURFACE
WINDS STAY UP...AND INCREASING MOISTURE FROM A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW GET HERE EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...LOWS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN
FORECAST.
MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL DIVERGE ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A
DIFFUSE COASTAL LOW...BUT THE WIND FIELDS ARE BIT MORE ALIGNED.
PRECIP EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT OVERRUNNING RAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
INCREASED POP TO LIKELY FOR ABOUT THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
CWA TUESDAY MORNING...BUT THIS ULTIMATELY DEPENDS ON IF THE LOW
CENTER PASSES CLOSE ENOUGH TO PUT THE AREA IN THE BEST LIFT. THE
NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST ROBUST IN TERMS OF QPF...BUT THE 18Z
RUN HAS BACKED OFF FROM ITS 1 TO 1.5 INCH FORECAST EARLIER TODAY.
LIGHT RAIN...PRIMARILY WRAP AROUND...POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF TEMP VARIATION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS
FOR -RA ENDING. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AS H5 LOW
DROPS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. H3 JET PRODUCES SOME LIFT...BUT
FORCING OTHERWISE IS WEAK AS EVIDENCED BY THE TIME HEIGHTS. WITH
MARGINAL MOISTURE...ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
A LULL SETTLES IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THEN THE FOCUS SHIFTS
TO LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER H5 LOW DROPS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
WITH A COMPLEX REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE. MODELS HINT AT LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...WITH A SECOND LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ALL THOUGH THERE IS A
SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...IT APPEARS A SHOT OF RA ON TRACK
DURING THE PERIOD. MAIN ISSUE MAY TURN OUT TO BE THE WIND IF THE
12Z GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE CLOSE AND A 980 MB LOW OCCLUDES OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NORTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KT OVERNIGHT WILL VEER NORTHEAST DURING
THE DAY TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. TOWARD
SUNRISE...A FEW TERMINAL SITES COULD SEE SOME RADIATION FOG...MVFR
VISIBILITIES IF WINDS DECOUPLE (KSWF/KGON)...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW
TO MODERATE IN THIS HAPPENING. NYC METRO WILL BE OK DUE TO AMPLE
MIXING/HEAT ISLAND.
OVERALL...VFR TODAY IN NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW. BETTER CHANCE FOR
MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES SUNDAY NIGHT IN NORTHEAST FLOW.
OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SUNDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE SUB VFR.
MONDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...SUB-VFR LIKELY.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...BECOMING VFR.
THURSDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHERLY FLOW BECOMES NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO EASTERN CANADA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WITH LOWERING PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON OCEAN WATERS SUNDAY EVENING.
EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...AND IT IS POSSIBLE
THE THE WATERS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND WILL NOT SEE
25 KTS UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT WIND CONDITIONS...WITH A FEW GUSTS POSSIBLY
APPROACHING GALE FORCE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SCA SEAS ON THE OCEAN LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN BEGIN
TO SUBSIDE AS LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS NORTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS. A
COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN IMPACT THE WATERS FROM LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF
THE SYSTEM...GALES MAY BE POSSIBLE TO CLOSE THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MORE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BS
NEAR TERM...PW/BS
SHORT TERM...BS
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...BG/JMC
HYDROLOGY...BS
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