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000
FXUS65 KABQ 182046
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
246 PM MDT Fri Sep 18 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Near to slightly above normal temperatures will be the rule over the
next week. Precipitation chances will generally be slim, though
the northern mountains will generally see the best chances. Any
light showers or thunderstorms that develop over the weekend into
early next week across the north and west will be capable of gusty
and erratic winds. Otherwise, hazy skies will continue as smoke from
western U.S. wildfires continue to filter into the state.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
Upper high center over central NM today will shift to the south by
Saturday with increasing westerly winds aloft over the northern
third to half of the state. In addition, a deepening surface lee
trough will help bring breezy conditions to portions of northeast NM
Saturday afternoon. Areas of haze from wildfire smoke will persist.

Plenty of cumulus clouds have developed over the northern and some
of the western high terrain this afternoon but no cells have been
detected by radar so far. Any that do develop will move slowly and
erratically and will be mostly dry with gusty winds. Increasing mid
level moisture Saturday will allow for a bit more areal coverage on
Saturday afternoon but chances for rain continue to be small. Cells
on Saturday will move from west to east and should dissipate after
sunset.

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
Generally a quiet day is expected for Sunday, though enough mid
level moisture will still exist across northern and western NM for
mainly virga showers to develop in the afternoon. Large inverted-V
soundings suggest that if this virga develops, gusty and erratic
winds will be possible. Nonetheless, this should be the exception for
an otherwise quiet and seasonable day.

Weak disturbances in the southwest flow over the Utah and Colorado
may help increase precipitation chances over the northern mountains
of NM Monday and Tuesday, but considerable dry air will persist at
lower levels, thus measurable precipitation should remain spotty and
gusty winds will remain possible.

The upper level ridge will quickly build over the southwest CONUS on
Wednesday, then center on the Four Corners Thursday, before getting
squashed southeastward Friday as a Pacific trough moves inland. A
weak front will push through the area on Wednesday, but a lack of
moisture behind the front should only slightly increase precipitation
chances, mainly across eastern NM. Stay tuned, as models have been
flip-flopping a bit regarding the pattern in the extended.

99/34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Upper high over New Mexico this afternoon to sag to the south
Saturday with increasing westerly winds aloft. Gradually increasing
mid level moisture will lead to a few more mostly dry showers with
gusty winds over the weekend, and perhaps isolated short lived
thunderstorms over the western and northern high terrain. Best
chances for localized wetting rain with convection over the northern
mountains may be Monday into Wednesday. Ventilation will be mostly
good through the weekend but with some areas of fair to locally poor
rates central and west. Dry weather is forecast for late next week
as a strong ridge builds. Temperatures will be near to above
average.

Any cells this afternoon and early evening will move slowly and
erratically. Cells that develop Saturday will move from west to
east. Southwest breezes over the Northeast Plains may lead to
marginal and localized one to three hour critical conditions
Saturday afternoon, depending if the humidity forecast decreases
slightly. At this time, no Fire Weather Watches or Red Flag Warnings
are anticipated.

99

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Upper high over NM. Smoke and haze will remain trapped under the
high. Sct to occasionally broken cu over the nrn mts and se NM. Isold
showers and possibly a short lived tstm over the nrn mts with gusty
outflows but little to no rain between 18Z and 02Z. Mid to high level
clouds to increase over nw and north central NM aft 19/12Z as surface
lee trough deepens.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington...................... 57 85 57 85 / 0 0 0 0
Dulce........................... 43 80 43 81 / 0 5 5 5
Cuba............................ 48 79 49 81 / 0 5 5 5
Gallup.......................... 48 84 47 84 / 0 5 5 0
El Morro........................ 44 79 45 80 / 0 10 10 5
Grants.......................... 45 80 46 81 / 0 10 5 5
Quemado......................... 46 79 47 80 / 5 10 5 5
Magdalena....................... 49 76 49 78 / 0 0 0 0
Datil........................... 46 75 46 77 / 0 5 5 0
Reserve......................... 45 84 44 86 / 5 5 5 0
Glenwood........................ 54 87 55 86 / 0 0 0 0
Chama........................... 42 74 42 75 / 5 10 10 10
Los Alamos...................... 52 75 52 76 / 10 10 5 5
Pecos........................... 48 76 50 77 / 5 5 5 5
Cerro/Questa.................... 47 75 48 77 / 10 10 10 20
Red River....................... 39 68 41 67 / 10 20 10 20
Angel Fire...................... 32 71 36 72 / 10 10 10 20
Taos............................ 42 78 43 80 / 10 5 5 10
Mora............................ 42 75 43 76 / 10 10 5 5
Espanola........................ 51 82 51 84 / 5 5 5 0
Santa Fe........................ 51 77 52 79 / 10 5 5 5
Santa Fe Airport................ 48 80 49 81 / 5 0 0 0
Albuquerque Foothills........... 57 81 57 83 / 0 0 0 0
Albuquerque Heights............. 56 82 54 84 / 0 0 0 0
Albuquerque Valley.............. 54 84 54 85 / 0 0 0 0
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 55 83 55 84 / 0 0 0 0
Belen........................... 51 83 50 85 / 0 0 0 0
Bernalillo...................... 52 85 53 86 / 0 0 0 0
Bosque Farms.................... 52 83 51 84 / 0 0 0 0
Corrales........................ 52 84 53 85 / 0 0 0 0
Los Lunas....................... 52 83 52 85 / 0 0 0 0
Placitas........................ 54 80 55 83 / 0 0 0 0
Rio Rancho...................... 54 83 54 85 / 0 0 0 0
Socorro......................... 54 83 53 85 / 0 0 0 0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 52 75 52 77 / 5 5 5 0
Tijeras......................... 51 79 52 81 / 0 5 5 0
Edgewood........................ 45 79 46 80 / 0 5 5 0
Moriarty/Estancia............... 41 80 42 82 / 0 0 5 0
Clines Corners.................. 47 76 47 77 / 0 0 0 0
Mountainair..................... 47 76 47 77 / 0 5 5 0
Gran Quivira.................... 46 75 46 77 / 0 0 0 0
Carrizozo....................... 50 80 50 80 / 0 0 0 0
Ruidoso......................... 45 74 45 75 / 5 0 0 0
Capulin......................... 49 79 48 81 / 0 5 5 10
Raton........................... 45 83 45 84 / 5 5 5 5
Springer........................ 45 84 45 85 / 5 5 5 5
Las Vegas....................... 44 78 44 80 / 5 0 5 0
Clayton......................... 53 83 54 84 / 0 0 0 0
Roy............................. 50 80 49 81 / 0 0 0 0
Conchas......................... 52 86 53 87 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Rosa...................... 50 82 50 84 / 0 0 0 0
Tucumcari....................... 55 86 56 87 / 0 0 0 0
Clovis.......................... 51 82 51 83 / 0 0 0 0
Portales........................ 50 83 51 84 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Sumner..................... 53 83 52 83 / 0 0 0 0
Roswell......................... 55 84 54 85 / 0 0 0 0
Picacho......................... 49 79 48 80 / 0 0 0 0
Elk............................. 46 76 45 77 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

 
 
 
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Avalanche Advisories for the Northern Sangre de Cristo mountains are issued by the Taos Avalanche Center.
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