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914
NZUS99 KABQ 192201
SAGABQ

Backcountry Forecast for the Northern Sangre de Cristo Mtns
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
400 PM MDT Sat Jun 19 2021

Northern Sangre de Cristo Mtns between 9kft and 10kft-
400 PM MDT Sat Jun 19 2021

.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the evening.
Min Temperature.....42-49.
Max Humidity........62-85 percent.
Min Wind Chill......Around 39.
Surface Winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph.
Chance of Pcpn......30 percent.
Pcpn Amount.........0.01 - 0.03 inches.
Snowfall Amount.....0.0 inches.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny in the morning then becoming partly
cloudy. Slight chance of dry thunderstorms in
the afternoon.
Max Temperature.....72-77.
Min Humidity........21 percent.
Max Wind Chill......Around 78.
Surface Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph.
Chance of Pcpn......20 percent.
Pcpn Amount.........0.01 - 0.03 inches.
Snowfall Amount.....0.0 inches.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms after midnight.
Min Temperature.....45-51.
Max Humidity........55-90 percent.
Min Wind Chill......Around 40.
Surface Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph shifting to the
northeast after midnight.
Chance of Pcpn......10 percent.
Pcpn Amount.........0.01 - 0.01 inches.
Snowfall Amount.....0.0 inches.

.MONDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming
partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms.
Max Temperature.....65-74.
Min Humidity........21-38 percent.
Max Wind Chill......Around 75.
Surface Winds.......North winds 5 to 10 mph shifting to the
southwest in the afternoon.
Chance of Pcpn......20 percent.
Pcpn Amount.........0.03 - 0.04 inches.
Snowfall Amount.....0.0 inches.


$$

Northern Sangre de Cristo Mtns between 10kft and 11kft-
400 PM MDT Sat Jun 19 2021

.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the evening.
Min Temperature.....Around 45.
Max Humidity........62-78 percent.
Min Wind Chill......Around 38.
Surface Winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph.
Chance of Pcpn......30 percent.
Pcpn Amount.........0.01 - 0.03 inches.
Snowfall Amount.....0.0 inches.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny in the morning then becoming partly
cloudy. Slight chance of dry thunderstorms in
the afternoon.
Max Temperature.....67-73.
Min Humidity........22 percent.
Max Wind Chill......Around 74.
Surface Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
Chance of Pcpn......20 percent.
Pcpn Amount.........0.01 - 0.03 inches.
Snowfall Amount.....0.0 inches.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms after midnight.
Min Temperature.....45-50.
Max Humidity........53-82 percent.
Min Wind Chill......Around 40.
Surface Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph shifting to the
northeast after midnight.
Chance of Pcpn......10 percent.
Pcpn Amount.........0.01 - 0.01 inches.
Snowfall Amount.....0.0 inches.

.MONDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming
partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms.
Max Temperature.....63-69.
Min Humidity........25-38 percent.
Max Wind Chill......Around 70.
Surface Winds.......North winds 5 to 10 mph shifting to the
southwest in the afternoon.
Chance of Pcpn......20 percent.
Pcpn Amount.........0.03 - 0.06 inches.
Snowfall Amount.....0.0 inches.


$$

Northern Sangre de Cristo Mtns above 11kft-
400 PM MDT Sat Jun 19 2021

.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy. Slight chance of rain showers
and dry thunderstorms in the evening.
Min Temperature.....Around 46.
Max Humidity........58-69 percent.
Min Wind Chill......Around 37.
Surface Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph.
Chance of Pcpn......20 percent.
Pcpn Amount.........0.01 - 0.03 inches.
Snowfall Amount.....0.0 inches.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny in the morning then becoming partly
cloudy. Slight chance of dry thunderstorms in
the afternoon.
Max Temperature.....61-69.
Min Humidity........24 percent.
Max Wind Chill......Around 70.
Surface Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph.
Chance of Pcpn......20 percent.
Pcpn Amount.........0.01 - 0.03 inches.
Snowfall Amount.....0.0 inches.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms after midnight.
Min Temperature.....Around 47.
Max Humidity........52-68 percent.
Min Wind Chill......Around 39.
Surface Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph shifting to the
northeast 5 to 15 mph after midnight.
Chance of Pcpn......10 percent.
Pcpn Amount.........0.01 - 0.01 inches.
Snowfall Amount.....0.0 inches.

.MONDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming
partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms.
Max Temperature.....58-65.
Min Humidity........27-35 percent.
Max Wind Chill......Around 66.
Surface Winds.......North winds 5 to 10 mph shifting to the
southwest in the afternoon.
Chance of Pcpn......20 percent.
Pcpn Amount.........0.03 - 0.06 inches.
Snowfall Amount.....0.0 inches.


$$




178
FXUS65 KABQ 200913
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
313 AM MDT Sun Jun 20 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Record heat continues today, but a sharp cool down is forecast to
come charging forth though eastern NM Sunday night into Monday
morning. Daytime highs here fall back into the 70s and 80s, staying
hot in the 90s west of the Rio Grande Valley. The reprieve is short-
lived with highs climbing back into the 90s Tuesday and toward 100F
Wednesday. Hit-and-miss afternoon storms producing more gusty outflow
winds than wetting precipitation will be commonplace Wednesday and
Thursday afternoons throughout western and central NM. Better chances
for wetting precipitation and cooler temperatures look to arrive by
next week, however forecast confidence is still shaky Friday and
beyond.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
The upper high will stay over southern AZ today, keeping
northwesterly flow aloft feeding into NM. Speeds in the 700 to 500 mb
layer are expected to approach 20 to 30 kt, especially in western
zones of NM, and some stronger speeds will consequently be observed
at the surface as this momentum aloft mixes down. This northwest flow
will also bring some drier boundary layer air and slightly lower
PWATs that will limit both the coverage and rainfall efficiency of
storms this afternoon. Isolated to scattered storms will still be
possible in just about every zone of the forecast area, but locations
that actually receive measurable rainfall will be the outliers. Heat
will continue to pose concerns as well, and the drier air will only
worsen this with temperatures exceeding yesterdays highs by 2 to 7
degrees in many zones with more record highs possible. The heat
advisory for Farmington and Albuquerque will remain unchanged for
today, but the Roswell (Chaves county plains) zone will be added, as
todays projected high of 108F would tie the record for today.

The eastern half of the state will get a reprieve from the heat
tonight into Monday as a tenacious backdoor front infiltrates the
area. Substantial cold air and moisture advection will accompany the
boundary with impressive dewpoint increases. This could ignite a
strong thunderstorm or two along the leading edge of the front in
northeastern zones this evening, but otherwise shower and storm
coverage would be on a downward trend toward and beyond midnight
tonight. Daytime highs on Monday will be 15 to 25 degrees cooler in
eastern zones with stabilization of the post frontal environment
limiting storm potential there, but a brief opportunity for light
stratiform rain will still be possible, mostly in northeastern
zones. Far western NM will remain hot with near record highs
continuing along with mostly dry conditions west of the Continental
Divide. The backdoor front will spill into the Rio Grande valley and
possibly onto the east faces of the Continental Divide where upslope
and moist/unstable conditions could ignite a few storms late Monday
afternoon. A hefty east canyon wind will also impact susceptible
central NM locales Monday.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
Mondays reprieve from the heat across eastern NM comes to an end
Tuesday as the upper high nudges eastward over southern NM as
southerly return flow sets up at the surface through the Pecos and
Canadian River Valleys. Dry westerlies fill into western and central
NM, with a lee-side surface low potentially bringing dry westerlies
as far as Clayton. The takeaway will be a rise in MaxTs across the
east back into the 90s. Wednesday and Thursday continue to see
agreement on the upper high becoming more broad but centered over the
Permian Basin with an upper low approaching the CA coastline. This
will allow for a modest monsoon tap of moisture to be drawn up into
the desert southwest, however this continues to favor more AZ and far
western NM at this time. The more bullish GFS raises PWATs at ABQ
toward the 1 mark with the less enthused ECMWF staying drier than
1. Either isolated or scattered convection emerges from this over
western NM, but the main sensible weather impacts will remain the
same as surface dewpoints look to remain fairly low with dewpoint
depressions of 40F- 50F remaining each afternoon. Strong virga-
induced downburst winds and patchy blowing dust may end up being more
common place than wetting rain. WPC precipitation agrees with this
sentiment only showing a few hundredths forecast Wednesday and
Thursday afternoon. Better hope for beneficial wetting precipitation
will have to wait, but long range model solutions are pointing to the
upper high repositioning itself over the Great Basin Friday-Saturday
with another backdoor cold front replenishing surface moisture
through eastern and central NM. Northerly diffluent flow aloft would
favor storms developing over the central mountain chain falling
southward over surrounding lower elevations. At the very least, a
break from the record heat looks in store by this time.

52/24

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Breezy to windy conditions will be common in western NM today as
drier and stronger northwest flow aloft arrives. This coupled with
the hot temperatures and low afternoon humidity will lead to a few
hours of spotty critical fire weather conditions to areas along/west
of the Continental Divide. Thunderstorm potential today will be
lower overall due to the arrival of the drier air, however most
zones outside of northwestern NM will be capable of observing a
brief-lived, high-based storm that would be more likely to produce
gusty outflows rather than appreciable rainfall. This will pose some
concerns for isolated dry lightning this afternoon, and just about
all of the forecast area will again be susceptible to above average
temperatures with many areas even breaking daily records.

A dramatic cool-down will be in store for the eastern half of NM on
Monday due to a strong backdoor cold front. This will recharge
moisture and boost humidity in eastern zones Monday while the
western half remains hot and mostly dry to the west of the
Continental Divide. The potential for storms will be low Monday
afternoon, generally favoring areas between the Divide and the
central mountain chain of NM. On Tuesday and more-so into Wednesday,
hotter than average temperatures will make a comeback along with
isolated to occasionally scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms, and this theme will continue into the latter part of
the week. Fuel moisture will be at risk of lowering through this
time, and the already high Energy Release Components (especially in
western NM) are expected to rise while dry lightning threatens each
day. A moisture intrusion from the east this weekend may provide a
faint, but increased hope for precipitation.

52

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
Thunderstorms have dissipated for the evening across northern and
central New Mexico, and a few remnant showers will slowly fade away
into the early morning hours as well. Some of this activity will be
capable of producing abrupt and erratic wind gusts through
20/0900UTC. Drier air will arrive into much of western and central
New Mexico on Sunday, limiting thunderstorm activity, but a isolated
cells will still be possible just about anywhere within the forecast
area. With drier air in the lower layers of the atmosphere, storms
would be even more prone to create gusty downburst winds with less
rainfall. Temperatures will be even hotter on Sunday and density
altitude readings will climb higher, posing difficult ascents for
some aircraft.

52

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington...................... 100 63 99 60 / 0 0 0 0
Dulce........................... 93 51 93 48 / 10 5 5 0
Cuba............................ 94 59 94 54 / 5 0 5 0
Gallup.......................... 97 55 97 54 / 20 10 0 0
El Morro........................ 92 56 92 58 / 20 10 5 0
Grants.......................... 95 56 95 53 / 20 10 5 0
Quemado......................... 93 57 91 57 / 10 10 5 0
Magdalena....................... 95 68 92 61 / 20 20 20 5
Datil........................... 93 61 91 58 / 10 10 20 5
Reserve......................... 99 54 98 54 / 20 10 5 5
Glenwood........................ 102 61 101 61 / 20 10 5 0
Chama........................... 85 47 85 47 / 20 10 20 0
Los Alamos...................... 90 65 87 59 / 10 10 20 0
Pecos........................... 91 57 79 54 / 10 10 30 5
Cerro/Questa.................... 84 49 80 48 / 20 20 30 0
Red River....................... 76 43 68 43 / 20 20 30 0
Angel Fire...................... 80 40 70 38 / 20 20 30 0
Taos............................ 90 51 84 48 / 20 10 30 0
Mora............................ 86 50 71 49 / 20 20 30 5
Espanola........................ 97 62 92 58 / 10 10 20 0
Santa Fe........................ 92 59 84 58 / 10 10 30 0
Santa Fe Airport................ 97 59 87 56 / 10 10 20 0
Albuquerque Foothills........... 98 69 88 64 / 10 10 10 5
Albuquerque Heights............. 100 71 90 64 / 10 10 10 0
Albuquerque Valley.............. 102 67 92 62 / 10 10 10 0
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 100 71 90 64 / 10 10 10 0
Belen........................... 103 71 96 63 / 20 10 10 5
Bernalillo...................... 101 68 93 61 / 10 10 10 0
Bosque Farms.................... 102 67 94 60 / 20 10 10 5
Corrales........................ 102 69 92 62 / 10 10 10 0
Los Lunas....................... 102 67 95 60 / 20 10 10 5
Placitas........................ 100 67 91 61 / 10 10 10 0
Rio Rancho...................... 101 70 94 63 / 10 10 10 0
Socorro......................... 103 73 99 64 / 20 20 10 5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 94 65 85 57 / 10 10 20 5
Tijeras......................... 98 66 87 57 / 10 10 10 5
Edgewood........................ 97 60 84 53 / 10 10 20 5
Moriarty/Estancia............... 98 57 83 50 / 10 10 20 5
Clines Corners.................. 93 59 76 52 / 10 10 10 5
Mountainair..................... 96 62 82 55 / 20 10 20 5
Gran Quivira.................... 96 62 82 55 / 10 10 10 10
Carrizozo....................... 100 66 84 59 / 10 20 10 10
Ruidoso......................... 95 55 76 53 / 20 20 10 10
Capulin......................... 88 53 69 50 / 20 30 30 0
Raton........................... 92 56 75 49 / 20 30 20 0
Springer........................ 94 58 77 50 / 20 20 10 0
Las Vegas....................... 90 54 72 50 / 20 10 20 0
Clayton......................... 96 57 72 55 / 10 30 20 0
Roy............................. 95 58 72 53 / 20 20 10 0
Conchas......................... 102 65 79 58 / 10 10 5 0
Santa Rosa...................... 101 64 77 57 / 10 10 0 0
Tucumcari....................... 104 66 79 59 / 10 20 5 0
Clovis.......................... 101 64 74 56 / 10 20 5 0
Portales........................ 102 66 76 58 / 10 20 5 0
Fort Sumner..................... 105 67 79 60 / 10 20 0 0
Roswell......................... 108 71 87 65 / 10 20 5 10
Picacho......................... 100 67 79 59 / 20 20 10 10
Elk............................. 96 64 79 55 / 20 30 20 10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM MDT this evening for
the following zones... NMZ201-219.

Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for the
following zones... NMZ238.

&&

$$


 
 
 
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Avalanche Advisories for the Northern Sangre de Cristo mountains are issued by the Taos Avalanche Center.
Click here for the full advisory.