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618
NZUS99 KABQ 221201
SAGABQ

Backcountry Forecast for the Northern Sangre de Cristo Mtns
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
500 AM MST Fri Jan 22 2021

Northern Sangre de Cristo Mtns between 9kft and 10kft-
500 AM MST Fri Jan 22 2021

.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy. Patchy freezing fog in the
morning.
Max Temperature.....Around 38.
Min Humidity........40-48 percent.
Max Wind Chill......Around 33.
Surface Winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph.
Chance of Pcpn......10 percent.
Pcpn Amount.........0.00 inches.
Snowfall Amount.....0.0 inches.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy. Slight chance of snow showers
after midnight.
Min Temperature.....Around 21.
Max Humidity........88-95 percent.
Min Wind Chill......Around 8.
Surface Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
Chance of Pcpn......30 percent.
Pcpn Amount.........0.01 - 0.29 inches.
Snowfall Amount.....0.2 - 3.5 inches.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy with chance of snow showers.
Max Temperature.....Around 36.
Min Humidity........46-54 percent.
Max Wind Chill......Around 28.
Surface Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 20 mph.
Chance of Pcpn......40 percent.
Pcpn Amount.........0.03 - 0.24 inches.
Snowfall Amount.....0.2 - 3.0 inches.


$$

Northern Sangre de Cristo Mtns between 10kft and 11kft-
500 AM MST Fri Jan 22 2021

.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy. Patchy freezing fog in the
morning.
Max Temperature.....31-37.
Min Humidity........40-48 percent.
Max Wind Chill......Around 31.
Surface Winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph.
Chance of Pcpn......10 percent.
Pcpn Amount.........0.00 inches.
Snowfall Amount.....0.0 inches.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy with slight chance of snow
showers.
Min Temperature.....Around 19.
Max Humidity........86-94 percent.
Min Wind Chill......Around 4.
Surface Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 15 mph.
Chance of Pcpn......30 percent.
Pcpn Amount.........0.01 - 0.28 inches.
Snowfall Amount.....0.2 - 3.5 inches.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy with chance of snow showers.
Max Temperature.....29-34.
Min Humidity........47-55 percent.
Max Wind Chill......Around 24.
Surface Winds.......Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph.
Chance of Pcpn......40 percent.
Pcpn Amount.........0.03 - 0.24 inches.
Snowfall Amount.....0.2 - 3.0 inches.


$$

Northern Sangre de Cristo Mtns above 11kft-
500 AM MST Fri Jan 22 2021

.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy. Patchy freezing fog in the
morning.
Max Temperature.....Around 30.
Min Humidity........39-48 percent.
Max Wind Chill......Around 23.
Surface Winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph.
Chance of Pcpn......10 percent.
Pcpn Amount.........0.00 inches.
Snowfall Amount.....0.0 inches.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy. Slight chance of snow showers in
the evening, then chance of snow showers after
midnight.
Min Temperature.....Around 15.
Max Humidity........85-93 percent.
Min Wind Chill......Around -2.
Surface Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 15 mph.
Chance of Pcpn......30 percent.
Pcpn Amount.........0.01 - 0.27 inches.
Snowfall Amount.....0.2 - 3.4 inches.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming
mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers.
Max Temperature.....24-29.
Min Humidity........51-57 percent.
Max Wind Chill......Around 19.
Surface Winds.......Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph.
Chance of Pcpn......50 percent.
Pcpn Amount.........0.03 - 0.26 inches.
Snowfall Amount.....0.4 - 3.2 inches.


$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 222228
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
328 PM MST Fri Jan 22 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of storm systems crossing from the west will bring periods
of mainly snow to the area along and west of the central mountain
chain tonight through Tuesday evening. Snow will favor the Tusas
Mountains tonight through Saturday. After a decrease in precipitation
Saturday night, snow will become more widespread Sunday with a few to
several inches of snow accumulation possible over the mountains and
continental divide region through Sunday night. A third system may
bring a few to several inches of additional snow accumulation to
locations along and west of the central mountain chain Monday
afternoon through Tuesday evening. Breezy to windy conditions are
also expected over southern and eastern areas Saturday through
Tuesday. Yet another storm system may arrive with rain and high
terrain snow showers over western areas starting next Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
West-southwest flow aloft has set up over the forecast area with
poor mixing and thus winds at the surface have stayed relatively
light to calm today. A 543dm H5 low over central CA is spinning up
some moisture into northern AZ, which is expected to spread eastward
into northwestern and west-central NM tonight into Saturday morning.
This H5 low will open to a shortwave trough and quickly eject out
over UT by Saturday morning losing much of its punch, and be
replaced by a new 544dm H5 low over southern CA. This will keep a
southwesterly flow aloft going over NM, with the best chances for
snow being around midnight tonight over northwestern NM with the
best diffluence aloft setting up during that time. That being said,
accumulations don`t look rather impressive with this system, with
any notable amounts of 4" or more staying mostly above 8,500` over
the Tusas Mountains. The Northwest Highlands between Tierra Amarilla
to Dulce will need to be monitored as these amounts could reach
advisory level overnight, but confidence is low for the amounts to
occur over a short enough period of time or large enough area to
warrant an advisory. So will leave the Winter Weather Advisory as is
for the Tusas Mountains where the highest confidence totals of 4 to
12 inches with up to 18 inches atop the peaks is expected. A light
dusting could cause isolated slick roads along the continental
divide between Grants and Gallup and through the Northwest Plateau
along U.S. Highway 550 as well.

Meanwhile, southerly to southeasterly moist surface flow will bring
a return of low clouds along the TX border from Clovis to Tucumcari
to Clayton tonight. The question is if fog/freezing fog develops as
well. As lower visibility did not occur this morning at Clovis, the
need for any Dense Fog Advisories for this area will be passed to
the evening and overnight shifts given the lack of confidence.

As for Saturday after sunrise, winter conditions across the west
look to taper off with snow likely continuing through much of the
day at Chama and the Tusas Mountains. Better mixing is expected to
allow increased southwest winds for much of the forecast area with
gusts upwards of 20-30mph. A lee-side sfc trough developing through
eastern CO will help spread these southwest winds through the
eastern plains, mixing out any lingering low clouds and warming
temperatures there to the upper 50s along the TX border. The
aforementioned second upper low over SoCAL begins approaching the
area Saturday night bringing the next colder and more widespread
winter weather to western and central NM leading into the Long Term
period.

24

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
Our next upper level low pressure system will dive southward over
the CA coast tonight and Saturday, bottoming out over San Diego
Saturday night, then ejecting east northeastward over NM as an upper
level trough Sunday through Sunday evening. It will be a colder
system with 700 mb temperatures lowering from -5C Sunday to -10C
Sunday night, so most of the precipitation that falls over the
northern mountains and western areas will be snow. A few to several
inches of snow accumulation will be possible in the mountains, and a
few inches at lower elevations along and west of the continental
divide. At lower elevations further east, a mix of only light rain
and snow are expected. Instability and CAPE look favorable for a few
thunderstorms in the mix over north central and western areas on
Sunday afternoon. A backdoor cold front is forecast to sag into
northeast areas on Sunday. Models aren`t agreeing too well on how
far south it will go during the day, but the front could sag south of
I-40 and bank up against the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains.

Decreased snow coverage and intensity are expected late Sunday night
through Monday morning, then the next upper level low pressure system
in the series, which will have bottomed out over southern CA by then,
will eject northeastward across the Four Corners Region with
additional snow mainly over central, western and north central parts
of the forecast area Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening. With
700 mb temperatures varying from around -9C Monday afternoon to -14C
by the time the base of the upper level trough crosses Tuesday
evening, mostly snow is expected with the potential for a few to
several additional inches along and west of the central mountain
chain, and probably not much accumulating precip farther east as a
lee trough and downslope flow develop.

Yet another upper level trough may begin to spread rain and high
terrain snow showers over western areas as it approaches from the
west on Friday. It`s worth noting that the troughs will cause the
flow aloft to strengthen with breezy to windy conditions at the
surface over southern and eastern parts of the forecast area.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An active weather pattern continues through this weekend through
Tuesday night with a series of winter weather systems swinging
through the region, bringing light to moderate snow accumulations to
most western and northern NM. The first system is expected to be the
weakest with appreciable snow accumulations limited to the western
and northern mountains above 8,500`. Better ventilation is expected
Saturday and Sunday with better mixing occurring. The second system
swings through Sunday with valley rain and mountain snow reaching
much of western, central, and northern NM. Morning fog will reach
parts of the eastern plains along the TX border Saturday morning.
Wind directions through the eastern plains will need to be monitored
Sunday as there is low confidence regarding the progression of a
backdoor cold front during that time. Winds will either be southwest
or from the north/northeast depending on the frontal progression. A
bit of a break in terms of precipitation arrives Monday with
continued fair to good ventilation mostly over the southwestern two-
thirds of the state. The final winter weather system looks to be the
coldest and most potent bringing more west to southwest winds and
snow accumulations to western and central NM as well as the northern
mountains, ending sometime Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The
weather pattern finally clears out thereafter with warmer
temperatures.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
IFR/LIFR conditions clearing through western valley locales including
KGUP this hour, but mtn obscurations are likely to linger into the
early afternoon period. Meanwhile, IFR cigs through the lower Rio
Grande Valley at KONM and at KCVN should burn off over the next hour
or so by ~19Z. Light winds remain for today with VFR expected for
most areas through the afternoon. A return of IFR/LIFR is expected
over the western and eastern fringes of the forecast area. Wintry
weather with scattered shsn reaches parts of western and northwestern
NM, as moist rich southeasterly flow brings IFR/LIFR cigs and the
patchy br/fzfg to far eastern NM. Confidence is higher for IFR to
reach KTCC to KCVN, and not so much at KROW. Vis and cigs expected to
improve by the end of the TAF period with strengthening southwest
winds, and continued isold to sct orographically driven snow over far
western and northwestern NM.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington...................... 31 46 26 42 / 40 50 40 80
Dulce........................... 26 42 20 39 / 80 70 50 80
Cuba............................ 26 43 23 39 / 30 30 20 80
Gallup.......................... 29 44 20 38 / 20 30 40 80
El Morro........................ 24 44 22 37 / 20 10 30 80
Grants.......................... 25 48 20 41 / 20 10 20 80
Quemado......................... 28 47 25 39 / 10 10 20 80
Magdalena....................... 30 52 29 45 / 10 5 0 40
Datil........................... 28 46 26 39 / 10 10 10 60
Reserve......................... 29 50 24 44 / 20 10 30 90
Glenwood........................ 34 52 34 44 / 20 10 30 90
Chama........................... 21 37 15 35 / 70 70 50 80
Los Alamos...................... 28 41 27 37 / 30 30 20 70
Pecos........................... 28 43 26 41 / 20 20 5 50
Cerro/Questa.................... 27 40 23 38 / 50 30 20 60
Red River....................... 22 34 17 33 / 40 40 20 60
Angel Fire...................... 19 35 10 33 / 40 30 20 60
Taos............................ 24 41 19 39 / 30 30 20 60
Mora............................ 23 45 19 41 / 5 20 10 50
Espanola........................ 31 48 27 46 / 20 30 10 60
Santa Fe........................ 29 43 28 41 / 20 20 10 60
Santa Fe Airport................ 29 48 26 45 / 20 20 5 60
Albuquerque Foothills........... 33 53 34 48 / 10 10 5 50
Albuquerque Heights............. 33 53 33 49 / 10 10 5 50
Albuquerque Valley.............. 33 56 32 51 / 10 5 5 50
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 33 54 33 49 / 10 10 5 60
Belen........................... 32 57 29 51 / 10 5 0 40
Bernalillo...................... 33 55 32 51 / 20 10 5 60
Bosque Farms.................... 31 56 29 51 / 10 5 0 50
Corrales........................ 33 55 32 51 / 10 10 5 60
Los Lunas....................... 32 56 29 50 / 10 5 0 40
Placitas........................ 33 50 33 45 / 10 10 5 60
Rio Rancho...................... 33 55 33 50 / 10 10 5 60
Socorro......................... 33 59 30 52 / 5 5 0 30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 30 45 31 41 / 10 10 5 50
Tijeras......................... 31 48 31 44 / 10 10 5 50
Edgewood........................ 28 49 28 45 / 10 5 5 40
Moriarty/Estancia............... 27 51 23 46 / 10 5 0 40
Clines Corners.................. 28 46 26 42 / 0 0 0 40
Mountainair..................... 30 48 29 44 / 5 5 0 30
Gran Quivira.................... 31 48 29 44 / 0 5 0 30
Carrizozo....................... 36 54 33 49 / 0 0 0 40
Ruidoso......................... 33 48 30 44 / 5 0 0 40
Capulin......................... 27 48 22 39 / 0 0 0 40
Raton........................... 24 50 20 44 / 0 0 0 40
Springer........................ 23 51 18 46 / 0 0 0 40
Las Vegas....................... 26 48 22 44 / 0 5 0 40
Clayton......................... 28 57 26 43 / 0 0 0 20
Roy............................. 26 53 26 46 / 0 0 0 30
Conchas......................... 31 59 29 53 / 0 0 0 20
Santa Rosa...................... 33 57 30 54 / 0 0 0 20
Tucumcari....................... 33 62 32 54 / 0 0 0 20
Clovis.......................... 32 60 34 58 / 0 0 0 10
Portales........................ 32 62 32 62 / 0 0 0 5
Fort Sumner..................... 34 61 31 58 / 0 0 0 20
Roswell......................... 34 67 33 62 / 0 0 0 10
Picacho......................... 34 59 33 57 / 0 0 0 20
Elk............................. 33 59 31 54 / 0 0 0 30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM MST Saturday
for the following zones... NMZ210.

&&

$$

 
 
 
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Avalanche Advisories for the Northern Sangre de Cristo mountains are issued by the Taos Avalanche Center.
Click here for the full advisory.