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FXUS65 KABQ 071734 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1034 AM MST Tue Dec 7 2021

Extensive mid to high level moisture to continue streaming over NM in
wly flow aloft. Mainly brief mt obscurations in MVFR cigs/vsbys in
sct -shrasn over the nw and north central NM higher terrain tapering
off aft 08/02Z. Lee surface trough with strongest winds gusting to
around 40kt along the central mt chain ewd.


.PREV DISCUSSION...316 AM MST Tue Dec 7 2021...
Light rain and snow showers over parts of northern and western NM
this morning will end by this afternoon. The rest of the area will
see more clouds, cool temperatures, and breezy conditions. Strong
winds will arrive over the higher terrain tonight then spread to
much of the area Wednesday and Wednesday night. Rain and mountain
snow showers will redevelop over far northwest NM Wednesday. More
significant rain and snow will arrive Thursday as a strong storm
system moves in from the west. Light to moderate snow accumulations
are possible for the northern and western mountains through Friday
morning. The rest of the area will see very strong to potentially
damaging winds Thursday night and Friday. Wind gusts of 65 to 75 mph
will be possible along the central mountain chain. The coldest air
of the season will also move in with this system. Many areas will
drop into the single digits and teens Friday night.


Westerly speed max in quite the complex upper-level flow pattern
over the Southwest U.S. today will result in isolated showers with
snow showers above 7000 mainly from Farmington/Aztec/Bloomfield/
east to Dulce, Chama and the Tusas mountains. By late tonight,
numerical prediction models phase a remnant piece of the northern
stream/polar jet with the subtropical jet over southern AZ. The
resulting southwesterly jet/slow over western NM and sufficient mid
level moisture are forecast produce a slightly better shot at mainly
isolated showers with snow showers above 7500 feet for the northwest
quarter of the state Wednesday. High temperatures will remain above
average for early December today and Wednesday, especially east.
Strong west winds are forecast Wednesday, primarily from the central
mountain chain eastward. Wind speeds for eastern NM are forecast to
remain below advisory criteria.

By Wednesday night, an upper level shortwave will race eastward over
northern NM. 700-500mb layer flow will become westerly and increase
to near 55 kt in the wake of this shortwave. Model cross sections
show a classic stable westerly flow regime being forced downward
along the east slopes of the central mt chain, especially the Sangre
de Cristo Mts. NBM 90th percentile and MOS winds indicate potential
for near High Wind speeds Wednesday evening. The rest of northern
and central will remain breezy with min temps 10 to 20F above normal
Thursday morning.

Substantial changes begin Thursday as the first significant storm
system of the season approaches from the Great Basin. Large scale
ascent will take place over the southwest CONUS as a 120 kt speed
max and associated deep tap of Pacific moisture advects northeast
into the region. Rain and snow will develop over the northern and
western high terrain thru Thursday afternoon with snow levels near
7,500`. Strong cold advection then arrives with the base of the
upper trough Thursday night with snow becoming the dominant precip
type by Friday morning. WPC QPF and subsequent snow amounts are
favoring the first significant snow of the season along and west of
the Cont Dvd. Meanwhile, the wind machine will really crank up over
the area as a surface low deepens to near 990mb along the Front
Range by Friday. Widespread advisory speeds are likely Thursday
afternoon with potentially damaging winds possible Thursday night and
Friday along the central mt chain. Very dry air arriving with the
passage of the upper trough axis will allow any snow to end quickly
Friday afternoon except west-facing slopes of the Sangre de Cristo
Mts and along the Raton mesa.

The coldest temps of the season will follow Friday and Saturday as
700mb temps fall to near -14C across northern NM. It has been so
much above normal this fall that these temps will be quite the slap
in the face, especially with blustery west to northwest winds. Highs
Friday and Saturday are actually just slightly below normal but min
temps will be bitterly cold both mornings.



A poorly organized storm system is forecast to bring a few showers
to far northwest NM today and Wednesday. Breezy west winds will be
most prevalent east of the central mountains. Wind speeds are
forecast to increase somewhat across eastern NM Wednesday with a few
areas of near critical conditions possible near the TX border.
Strong west winds ahead of a bonafide winter storm system Thursday
and Friday bring the potential for near critical conditions from the
central highlands eastward to the TX line. Areas of near critical
conditons are also possible in the middle Rio Grande Valley Friday,
just ahead of the associated cold front. Meanwhile across western
and northern NM, Thursday night and Friday, widespread wetting
precipitation is forecast along with much colder temperatures. More
tranquil but breezy weather moves in for the weekend.






Multiple Site indicatorMultiple Sites

Avalanche Advisories for the Northern Sangre de Cristo mountains are issued by the Taos Avalanche Center.
Click here for the full advisory.