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FXUS65 KABQ 210004 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
604 PM MDT Mon Sep 20 2021

A backdoor cold front will bank up against the east slopes of the
central mountain chain this evening, then push through gaps into the
central valley with a gusty east wind below canyons from Santa Fe
southward Tuesday morning. The GFS Model suggests the east canyon
winds could reach 35 kt at KABQ Tuesday morning, but there is some
uncertainty with other models not quite as strong. The strongest
gusts may reach 40 kt in Carrizozo, peaking around 15Z. Otherwise,
there may be a few patches of MVFR and low VFR ceilings in low clouds
along the east slopes of the central mountain chain, and also across
the northeast plains, late tonight into early Tuesday morning. Winds
will weaken and the ceiling will break up toward mid day Tuesday.



.PREV DISCUSSION...257 PM MDT Mon Sep 20 2021...
A cold front moving across NM today will bring east winds to the Rio
Grande Valley tonight. Gusts of 30 to 40 mph are likely below canyons
through Tuesday morning. Thick clouds will develop along the east
slopes of the central mountain chain and over northeast NM tonight.
High temperatures will then be cooler Tuesday. The coldest morning
since early June is expected Wednesday morning. The remainder of the
week will be much warmer with clear skies and low humidity. More
cloud cover, a couple showers, and slightly cooler temperatures may
return by the weekend.


A dry cold front continues to make progress southward through the
the northern half of NM this afternoon. The front west of the
central mountain chain is near a Zuni Pueblo to Taos line while the
backdoor portion east of the central mountain chain is near a Raton
Pass to Santa Rosa to Portales line. The backdoor portion will
become the dominant front tonight, gradually pushing westward to the
east slopes of the central mountain chain late tonight. 12Z models
suite hints at patchy upslope stratus mainly east of the Sangre de
Cristo mountains Tuesday morning. High temperatures Tuesday are
forecast to be 15 to 20 degrees cooler than today east, 5-10 degrees
cooler RGV, and 1 to 5 degrees cooler west. Gusty east canyon winds
into the RGV will likely peak just after sunrise Tuesday morning
with gusts to 40 mph possible downwind of Tijeras canyon.
Coolest/coldest night of the season is forecast Tuesday
night/Wednesday morning with many higher elevation valley spots in
the northern and western mountains flirting with freezing low

If you blinked you might have missed the brief taste of fall from
Tuesday. Autumn begins at 1:21 pm MDT Wednesday however it will come
with a near-record strong 594dm H5 high over southwest NM. This will
deepen a lee-side trough over eastern NM with above normal temps
again. Dry air, clear skies, and light winds Wednesday night will
lead to efficient radiational cooling with chilly low temps expected
Thursday morning. The H5 high center will shift into southeast NM
Thursday and allow high temps to trend even warmer areawide through
Friday. Overnight low temps will remain cool with strong mid-slope
inversions each night.

Some change is being advertised from medium range forecast guidance
by the weekend. A slow-moving upper low near SoCal may drag moisture
from the Baja region and northern MX into the desert southwest. At
this time, we are likely to see increased cloud cover with slightly
cooler high temps but confidence is very low on precip chances.



A dry cold front will bring more fall like weather to central and
northern New Mexico tonight and Tuesday but the pesky Four Corners`
high makes a comeback Wednesday through the remainder of the week.
Below average temperatures are forecast for Tuesday, trending up to
above average through Friday. Dry conditions will remain through the
week with the potential for at least isolated showers and
thunderstorms for western portions of the state Sunday and Monday






Multiple Site indicatorMultiple Sites

Avalanche Advisories for the Northern Sangre de Cristo mountains are issued by the Taos Avalanche Center.
Click here for the full advisory.