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FXUS65 KABQ 212258 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
458 PM MDT Tue Aug 21 2018

Upper high center vcnty se NM with plentiful moisture circulating
into NM from Old Mexico. Sct to nmrs showers and tstms movg n to ne
at 23Z will persist beyond 22/06Z but tstms to diminish in number.
Brief MVFR to IFR cigs/vsbys obscuring terrain along with small hail
and wnd gusts to 40kts possible with the stronger storms. Lcl MVFR
cigs/vsbys in br and precipitation possible 22/06Z-15Z as the stream
of moisture with embedded showers persists. Sct to nmrs tstms to
develop over the higher terrain of wrn and nrn NM aft 22/18Z.


.PREV DISCUSSION...215 PM MDT Tue Aug 21 2018...
A more traditional monsoon flow pattern is finally in place across
New Mexico with upper level high pressure focused over Texas. This
pattern will continue through the weekend and allow for daily rounds
of scattered to numerous showers and storms with heavy rainfall. A
brief drying trend is expected Friday but an overall active pattern
is expected. A couple storms may become severe over northeastern New
Mexico today and Wednesday as a weak surface front flirts with the
area. Temperatures will hover near normal across the state through
the weekend.


A long awaited crop of showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall
is in place this afternoon across central and western NM. Radar QPE
shows several footprints of 0.75" to 1.50" near the ContDvd and this
activity will drift north-northeast through the day then consolidate
around the Rio Grande Valley tonight. The 19Z LAPS showed impressive
moist instability across the northeast plains where a marginal risk
for severe storms is highlighted by SPC. The 12Z HREF-2 has a large
cluster of strong reflectivities over Colfax and Union counties thru
06Z so confidence is high on a couple Severe Tstorm Warnings.

The PWAT value on the 18Z KTWC RAOB was 1.41" so strong deep layer
moisture advection will continue into NM through Thursday on south
to southwest flow. There will be an elevated risk of flash flooding
over central and western NM during this period as statistical model
guidance and hi-res models have come into good agreement on high
precip chances with heavier QPF.

A down-day is anticipated Friday as a weak upper wave rolls off the
central Rockies and forces drier mid and upper level air across the
northern half of NM. The Gila region will however remain active with
the potential for flash flooding to continue. An uptick is in store
again over the weekend across central and western NM as moist, deep
layer south to southwest flow takes shape over the area. Temperatures
through the forecast period will hover near normal.



A rich monsoon flow will continue through the weekend with daily
rounds of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the
climatologically favored western, northern and central parts of the
forecast area. An exception will occur on Friday, when northern
areas should have mainly isolated storms due to drier air that
arrives in the wake of an upper level trough that will pass north of
NM Thursday night. That trough will send a back door cold front
into the northeast and east central plains with a wind shift
Thursday night and Friday. Some pockets of poor ventilation are
also expected Friday. The monsoon flow should kick right back in on
Saturday as the mid-level high pressure system builds over the lower
Mississippi River Valley and an upper level trough persists on the
Pacific northwest coast. High temperatures through the weekend
should vary from near normal to several degrees below normal central
and west, with above normal readings farther east.

Early next week bring a downtick in thunderstorm coverage and
rainfall intensity as the upper high takes a more zonal orientation
and shifts eastward in response to an active storm track along the
US/Canadian border. A slow moving upper level low pressure system
will also track slowly across the northwest US with a strongly
positive tilt. This will steer somewhat drier air over the state.
The most active region for convection should be the southern tier of
mountains. Models shower increasingly drier air arriving as the week
progresses, and this should allow high temperatures to rise above
normal areawide.






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Click here for the full advisory.