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000
FWUS45 KABQ 122301
SAGABQ

Backcountry Forecast for the Northern Sangre de Cristo Mtns
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
400 PM MST Wed Dec 12 2018

Northern Sangre de Cristo Mtns between 9kft and 10kft-
400 PM MST Wed Dec 12 2018

.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Snow likely in the evening, then
chance of snow after midnight. Blowing snow
after midnight.
Min Temperature.....Around 12.
Max Humidity........64-73 percent.
Min Wind Chill......Around -7.
Surface Winds.......Breezy. Northwest winds 10 to 25 mph.
Chance of Pcpn......60 percent.
Pcpn Amount.........0.11 - 0.15 inches.
Snowfall Amount.....1.8 - 2.6 inches.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
Max Temperature.....Around 26.
Min Humidity........22-27 percent.
Max Wind Chill......Around 15.
Surface Winds.......Northwest winds 10 to 20 mph.
Chance of Pcpn......10 percent.
Pcpn Amount.........0.00 inches.
Snowfall Amount.....0.0 inches.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear.
Min Temperature.....4-9.
Max Humidity........47-63 percent.
Min Wind Chill......Around -7.
Surface Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
Chance of Pcpn......0 percent.
Pcpn Amount.........0.00 inches.
Snowfall Amount.....0.0 inches.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
Max Temperature.....36-41.
Min Humidity........22 percent.
Max Wind Chill......Around 39.
Surface Winds.......West winds up to 5 mph shifting to the
southwest in the afternoon.
Chance of Pcpn......0 percent.
Pcpn Amount.........0.00 inches.
Snowfall Amount.....0.0 inches.


$$

Northern Sangre de Cristo Mtns between 10kft and 11kft-
400 PM MST Wed Dec 12 2018

.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Snow likely in the evening, then
chance of snow after midnight. Blowing snow
after midnight.
Min Temperature.....Around 9 above.
Max Humidity........66-78 percent.
Min Wind Chill......Around -12.
Surface Winds.......Breezy. Northwest winds 10 to 25 mph.
Chance of Pcpn......60 percent.
Pcpn Amount.........0.11 - 0.18 inches.
Snowfall Amount.....1.8 - 3.0 inches.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
Max Temperature.....Around 22.
Min Humidity........23-29 percent.
Max Wind Chill......Around 10.
Surface Winds.......North winds 10 to 20 mph.
Chance of Pcpn......10 percent.
Pcpn Amount.........0.00 inches.
Snowfall Amount.....0.0 inches.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear.
Min Temperature.....Around 8 above.
Max Humidity........41-52 percent.
Min Wind Chill......Around -7.
Surface Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
Chance of Pcpn......0 percent.
Pcpn Amount.........0.00 inches.
Snowfall Amount.....0.0 inches.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
Max Temperature.....32-37.
Min Humidity........21 percent.
Max Wind Chill......Around 33.
Surface Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
Chance of Pcpn......0 percent.
Pcpn Amount.........0.00 inches.
Snowfall Amount.....0.0 inches.


$$

Northern Sangre de Cristo Mtns above 11kft-
400 PM MST Wed Dec 12 2018

.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Snow likely in the evening, then
chance of snow after midnight. Blowing snow
after midnight.
Min Temperature.....3-8.
Max Humidity........70-84 percent.
Min Wind Chill......Around -18.
Surface Winds.......Breezy. Northwest winds 15 to 25 mph.
Chance of Pcpn......60 percent.
Pcpn Amount.........0.12 - 0.18 inches.
Snowfall Amount.....2.0 - 3.4 inches.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
Max Temperature.....15-20.
Min Humidity........21-29 percent.
Max Wind Chill......Around 6.
Surface Winds.......North winds 10 to 20 mph.
Chance of Pcpn......10 percent.
Pcpn Amount.........0.00 inches.
Snowfall Amount.....0.0 inches.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear.
Min Temperature.....Around 7 above.
Max Humidity........36-45 percent.
Min Wind Chill......Around -12.
Surface Winds.......North winds 5 to 15 mph.
Chance of Pcpn......0 percent.
Pcpn Amount.........0.00 inches.
Snowfall Amount.....0.0 inches.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
Max Temperature.....27-32.
Min Humidity........22 percent.
Max Wind Chill......Around 28.
Surface Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
Chance of Pcpn......0 percent.
Pcpn Amount.........0.00 inches.
Snowfall Amount.....0.0 inches.


$$



000
FXUS65 KABQ 122352 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
452 PM MST Wed Dec 12 2018

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
A potent cold front is entering NM late today and will deliver a bout
of strong northwest to north winds tonight. Widespread gusts of 40 to
55 kt are expected in the period from 03Z to 08Z at all terminals as
the front plows across the state. The strongest winds will focus from
KFMN to KAEG and from near KCAO to KTCC. Low cigs and areas of SN are
also expected across eastern NM behind the front. This will result in
areas of BLSN with reduced vsbys below 3SM possible. Skies will clear
quickly from northwest to southeast Thursday with windy north winds
gradually tapering off through the day. An Airport Weather Warning is
likely for KABQ between 8 pm and 2 am however gusts may only exceed
35 kt for a couple obs centered around 10 pm.

Guyer

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...309 PM MST Wed Dec 12 2018...
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong to high winds will be the main focus through Thursday. Lots of
high wind warnings and wind advisories are out or soon to be out.
Snow will develop across the north this evening then spread down the
eastern plains tonight. Snow amounts should be generally light, with
measurement difficult due to blowing snow. A ridge of high pressure
will cross NM Friday with noticeably less wind and lots of sunshine.
A weak and dry short wave trough will cross the state Saturday or
Saturday night. Models diverge greatly in the extended. The GFS is
by far the most bullish in bringing 2 storm systems into NM from
late Sunday into next Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A weak short wave trough is passing harmlessly to our south this
afternoon. Another short wave from the northwest will dive south and
strengthen into a closed low tonight as it crosses NM from northwest
to southeast. he main impact with this system will be the wind, as a
strong upper level jet stream roars over the state. It will mainly
impact western to central and south south central NM this evening
through tonight. A surface low will deepen near the northeast corner
of NM tonight before moving southeast Thursday. A strong back door
cold front will pinwheel around the low and plow south through the
eastern plains tonight with colder air behind it. Strong to high
winds will exist near and behind the front across most of the east.
Upgrading the High Wind Watch in the east for later tonight through
Thursday to a High Wind Warning, except for the Chaves County
Plains. Wind advisories on the western fringes of the warning area
will be issued as well.

Snow will be the other concern for tonight into Thursday morning
over the north and east. Snow is not expected to reach winter
weather advisory amounts, but there is going to be plenty of blowing
snow with greatly reduced visibilities. A little snow and lots of
blowing snow will create difficult driving conditions tonight over
the Sangres, their east slopes, and around Raton Ridge. Blowing snow
could also impact portions of eastern NM, even though snow amounts
will be primarily under an inch. Winds will ease in the west and
central zones Thursday, but remain strong to high in the east for
most of the day. It will be chilly Thursday, especially in the east
where wind chills will be in the 20s to 30s. Winds will ease in the
east Thursday night but wind chills will be low with single digits
and teens.

More tranquil weather will return Friday as a ridge of high pressure
builds in from the west. Lots of sunshine will help temperatures
recover to around normal. The flow aloft will back to the southwest
Saturday as a very weak short wave approaches. It will cross the
state later Saturday or Saturday night but will be absolutely dry
with little impact to the sensible weather. A stronger system will
impact NM early next week with perhaps another one for the middle of
the week, if you buy into the GFS model. The ECMWF and CMC kinda
sorta have the same idea but are drier.

CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Westerly winds have already begun mixing down to portions of western
NM, and will continue to strengthen and expand in coverage through
tonight. Most areas will see sustained W/NW winds of 30-40mph with
gusts of 40-55mph. Stronger gusts upwards of 60-70mph will favor the
western high terrain above 8,000` tonight. Winds across the western
half of the forecast area will peak with the passage of a cold front
first entering the Northwest Plateau this evening around 5-6pm,
reaching to the Middle RGV by midnight. Meanwhile, the east plains
will see strong northerly winds kick in behind a backdoor cold front
entering into northeast NM by 9pm-12am tonight, quickly pushing
south to the East-Central Plains by 12a-3am and through to the
southeast plains by sunrise. A few hours of critical fire weather is
likely along the I-25 corridor from Raton to Las Vegas and adjacent
high plains Thu afternoon due to the strong north winds and much
drier air behind the front.

Moisture with this system will be hard to come by and any snow
accumulations will be light. Blowing snow may be an issue overnight
into Thursday morning for eastern NM and the east slopes of the
Sangre de Cristo`s.

Fair to good ventrates today will diminish somewhat across the west
Thu, becoming excellent for the east plains, falling to poor
areawide Fri and into next week. Temperatures fall drastically
behind the front, with highs struggling to reach into the mid-low
40s, 20s-30s across the northern mtns. Much drier air also invades
the state behind the cold front, so despite the drop in
temperatures MinRHs will range from the teens to 20s Thu and Fri.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 8 AM MST Thursday for the following zones...
NMZ504-506>508-511-519-521>524-526-539-540.

Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 5 PM MST Thursday for the
following zones... NMZ515-529-532-533-537-538.

High Wind Warning from 10 PM this evening to 5 PM MST Thursday for
the following zones... NMZ527-528-530-531-534>536.

Wind Advisory until 8 AM MST Thursday for the following zones...
NMZ501-502-518-520-525.

&&

$$

 
 
 
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Avalanche Advisories for the Northern Sangre de Cristo mountains are issued by the Taos Avalanche Center.
Click here for the full advisory.