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125
NZUS99 KABQ 231100
SAGABQ

Backcountry Forecast for the Northern Sangre de Cristo Mtns
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
500 AM MDT Fri Apr 23 2021

Northern Sangre de Cristo Mtns between 9kft and 10kft-
500 AM MDT Fri Apr 23 2021

.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy with slight chance of rain
showers and snow showers in the morning, then
mostly cloudy with rain showers and dry
thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Max Temperature.....44-49.
Min Humidity........33 percent.
Max Wind Chill......Around 44.
Surface Winds.......West winds 5 to 15 mph.
Chance of Pcpn......60 percent.
Pcpn Amount.........0.04 - 0.17 inches.
Snowfall Amount.....0.1 - 1.5 inches.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy in the evening then clearing.
Min Temperature.....23-28.
Max Humidity........56-72 percent.
Min Wind Chill......Around 14.
Surface Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph.
Chance of Pcpn......10 percent.
Pcpn Amount.........0.01 - 0.03 inches.
Snowfall Amount.....0.1 - 0.2 inches.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
Max Temperature.....Around 54.
Min Humidity........18 percent.
Max Wind Chill......Around 57.
Surface Winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph increasing to 10 to 20
mph in the afternoon.
Chance of Pcpn......0 percent.
Pcpn Amount.........0.00 inches.
Snowfall Amount.....0.0 inches.


$$

Northern Sangre de Cristo Mtns between 10kft and 11kft-
500 AM MDT Fri Apr 23 2021

.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy with slight chance of snow
showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with
dry thunderstorms, rain showers and snow
showers likely in the afternoon.
Max Temperature.....39-45.
Min Humidity........32-41 percent.
Max Wind Chill......Around 40.
Surface Winds.......West winds 5 to 15 mph.
Chance of Pcpn......60 percent.
Pcpn Amount.........0.04 - 0.18 inches.
Snowfall Amount.....0.2 - 1.8 inches.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy in the evening then clearing.
Min Temperature.....Around 23.
Max Humidity........59-70 percent.
Min Wind Chill......Around 9.
Surface Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph.
Chance of Pcpn......10 percent.
Pcpn Amount.........0.01 - 0.03 inches.
Snowfall Amount.....0.1 - 0.4 inches.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
Max Temperature.....47-53.
Min Humidity........20 percent.
Max Wind Chill......Around 53.
Surface Winds.......West winds 5 to 20 mph.
Chance of Pcpn......0 percent.
Pcpn Amount.........0.00 inches.
Snowfall Amount.....0.0 inches.


$$

Northern Sangre de Cristo Mtns above 11kft-
500 AM MDT Fri Apr 23 2021

.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy with slight chance of snow
showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with
thunderstorms and snow showers likely in the
afternoon.
Max Temperature.....31-39.
Min Humidity........37-48 percent.
Max Wind Chill......Around 33.
Surface Winds.......West winds 5 to 15 mph.
Chance of Pcpn......60 percent.
Pcpn Amount.........0.06 - 0.18 inches.
Snowfall Amount.....0.5 - 2.1 inches.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy in the evening then clearing.
Min Temperature.....Around 20.
Max Humidity........61-75 percent.
Min Wind Chill......Around 4.
Surface Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph.
Chance of Pcpn......10 percent.
Pcpn Amount.........0.01 - 0.03 inches.
Snowfall Amount.....0.1 - 0.4 inches.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
Max Temperature.....40-46.
Min Humidity........21-26 percent.
Max Wind Chill......Around 41.
Surface Winds.......West winds 10 to 20 mph.
Chance of Pcpn......0 percent.
Pcpn Amount.........0.00 inches.
Snowfall Amount.....0.0 inches.


$$




734
FXUS65 KABQ 231120 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
520 AM MDT Fri Apr 23 2021

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
A disturbance tracking across the area today will result in rain,
high elevation snow, and thunderstorms across northern NM as well as
areas along and west of the Continental Divide. However, not much
precipitation is expected. Rather, dry thunderstorms with gusty and
erratic winds with gusts of 40 to 50 knots will likely be more
common. Gusty, northwest winds of 35 to 45 knots will also be
expected across most of the area through this evening behind a
Pacific cold front. Precipitation and the strongest winds will taper
off this evening, but a backdoor cold front moving through the
eastern plains will result in a northerly wind shift after 00Z.

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...223 AM MDT Fri Apr 23 2021...
.SYNOPSIS...
A Pacific disturbance will move over the state today, bringing
cooler conditions with showers, a few storms and gusty winds. Expect
a warming trend through the weekend, with windy conditions returning
by Sunday afternoon. Stronger winds will develop Monday ahead of an
approaching Pacific cold front, forecast to move across the state
Tuesday into Wednesday and bring good precipitation chances and
cooler conditions. Thursday is looking warmer, with much less wind as
high pressure moves in from the west.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
An upper-level trough and its associated Pacific cold front is
currently located over central AZ with an area of showers beginning
to approach the western NM border. That trough and cold front will
track across northern NM through this evening, with rain, high
elevation snow, and thunderstorms favoring western and northern NM.
However, there`s not a substantial amount of moisture associated
with this feature. Mid- and upper-level moisture will help support
high-based thunderstorms, but the low-levels will remain dry with
dewpoints generally remaining well below 30F. Like the 00Z ABQ
sounding, forecast models indicate inverted-V soundings with DCAPE
around 500-1000 J/kg. This will support dry thunderstorms with gusty
and erratic winds more common than wetting precipitation. The
exception may be across the northeast corner of the state where
dewpoints will be relatively higher behind a weak backdoor cold
front that noses into the area by mid-afternoon. Models are
depicting some wetting precipitation there this evening as the
trough moves through, but amounts still remain less than 0.25".
Otherwise, temperatures trend down a few degrees behind the front
with gusty winds persisting through this evening. Winds are expected
to remain below advisory speeds for most with the exception being
the Clines Corners zone where a Wind Advisory has been issued. The
backdoor cold front continues to move through the east Friday night,
offering a slight cooldown in Friday night`s lows. Quiter weather is
on tap for Saturday as a ridge moves overhead. Temperatures warm
several degrees with increasing pressure heights, and most locations
will see above normal high temperatures.

LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
Winds aloft will back and increase out of the southwest Saturday
night through Monday in advance of a potent Pacific trough that will
be pushing into the west coast and progressing eastward. Sunday is
looking like the warmest day this forecast cycle, especially across
the eastern plains due in part to downslope winds. Highs on Sunday
will be above normal central/west and well above normal east. Windy
conditions are expected Sunday afternoon given deep atmospheric
mixing, with blowing dust likely. The Pacific trough and associated
cold front will approach from over the Great Basin and Desert
Southwest Monday and even stronger southwest winds will develop. Wind
highlights are likely across much of our forecast area Monday, with
even more blowing dust. The Pacific trough and associated cold front
will move across Tuesday through early Wednesday, brining good
precipitation chances, strong winds and much cooler conditions. The
latest medium range model solutions differ with the amplification and
progression of the Pacific trough, so will refrain from getting too
into the details at this time. After a couple days of well below
normal temperatures, expect warming to end the work week as a ridge
pumps up over the Intermountain West following the departing trough.

15/11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...

A weak disturbance tracking across the area today will result in
rain, mountain snow, and thunderstorms across western and northern
NM through this evening. However, a lack of low-level moisture will
mean that dry thunderstorms with a lack of wetting precipitation
will be more common. Minimum humidities less than 15 percent will
stay in place across east central and southeast NM, but below normal
temperatures and lack of high Haines will limit widespread critical
fire weather conditions in that area today. Drier conditions settle
in this weekend, and temperatures warm as an area of high pressure
builds over the area. Critical fire weather conditions may return to
the east on Saturday, but Sunday looks to be the day for widespread
critical fire weather with temperatures well above normal, single-
digit RHs, and high Haines. Critical conditions continue into Monday
across the east where single digit RHs will stay in place. A break
from the critical fire weather looks to arrive mid-next week as a
storm system brings increased chances for wetting precipitation and
cooler temperatures.

15

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening for the
following zones... NMZ223.

&&

$$


 
 
 
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Avalanche Advisories for the Northern Sangre de Cristo mountains are issued by the Taos Avalanche Center.
Click here for the full advisory.