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898
FWUS45 KABQ 261200
SAGABQ

Backcountry Forecast for the Northern Sangre de Cristo Mtns
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
500 AM MST Thu Nov 26 2020

Northern Sangre de Cristo Mtns between 9kft and 10kft-
500 AM MST Thu Nov 26 2020

.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
Max Temperature.....36-41.
Min Humidity........32-37 percent.
Max Wind Chill......Around 36.
Surface Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
Chance of Pcpn......0 percent.
Pcpn Amount.........0.00 inches.
Snowfall Amount.....0.0 inches.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy.
Min Temperature.....15-21.
Max Humidity........68-86 percent.
Min Wind Chill......Around 7.
Surface Winds.......South winds up to 10 mph shifting to the east
after midnight.
Chance of Pcpn......10 percent.
Pcpn Amount.........0.00 inches.
Snowfall Amount.....0.0 inches.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy. Slight chance of snow showers in
the morning, then chance of snow showers in the
afternoon.
Max Temperature.....Around 30.
Min Humidity........50-55 percent.
Max Wind Chill......Around 26.
Surface Winds.......East winds 5 to 10 mph.
Chance of Pcpn......30 percent.
Pcpn Amount.........0.01 - 0.03 inches.
Snowfall Amount.....0.2 - 0.2 inches.


$$

Northern Sangre de Cristo Mtns between 10kft and 11kft-
500 AM MST Thu Nov 26 2020

.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
Max Temperature.....32-38.
Min Humidity........32-38 percent.
Max Wind Chill......Around 32.
Surface Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
Chance of Pcpn......0 percent.
Pcpn Amount.........0.00 inches.
Snowfall Amount.....0.0 inches.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy.
Min Temperature.....Around 17.
Max Humidity........69-83 percent.
Min Wind Chill......Around 5.
Surface Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph shifting to the east
after midnight.
Chance of Pcpn......10 percent.
Pcpn Amount.........0.00 inches.
Snowfall Amount.....0.0 inches.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy. Slight chance of snow showers in
the morning, then chance of snow showers in the
afternoon.
Max Temperature.....Around 27.
Min Humidity........53-60 percent.
Max Wind Chill......Around 22.
Surface Winds.......East winds 5 to 10 mph.
Chance of Pcpn......30 percent.
Pcpn Amount.........0.01 - 0.03 inches.
Snowfall Amount.....0.2 - 0.2 inches.


$$

Northern Sangre de Cristo Mtns above 11kft-
500 AM MST Thu Nov 26 2020

.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
Max Temperature.....26-33.
Min Humidity........34-42 percent.
Max Wind Chill......Around 26.
Surface Winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph.
Chance of Pcpn......0 percent.
Pcpn Amount.........0.00 inches.
Snowfall Amount.....0.0 inches.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy.
Min Temperature.....Around 15.
Max Humidity........72-80 percent.
Min Wind Chill......Around 2.
Surface Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph shifting to the
southeast after midnight.
Chance of Pcpn......10 percent.
Pcpn Amount.........0.00 inches.
Snowfall Amount.....0.0 inches.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy. Slight chance of snow showers in
the morning, then chance of snow showers in the
afternoon.
Max Temperature.....Around 23.
Min Humidity........57-65 percent.
Max Wind Chill......Around 17.
Surface Winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
Chance of Pcpn......40 percent.
Pcpn Amount.........0.03 - 0.03 inches.
Snowfall Amount.....0.2 - 0.2 inches.


$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 261132 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
432 AM MST Thu Nov 26 2020

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
High clouds will continue streaming over eastern NM this morning. A
weak wind shift will bring a period of breezy north to northeast
winds from KCAO to KTCC from 14Z to 20Z. Elsewhere, skies will be
mostly sunny with light winds. Clouds will thicken and lower over
western NM before sunrise Friday ahead of the next winter storm.

Guyer

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...323 AM MST Thu Nov 26 2020...
.SYNOPSIS...
After plenty of sunshine and near normal temperatures today, a back
door cold front Thursday night will drop highs around 5 to 18
degrees on Friday. East canyon wind gusts from 40 to 50 mph are
expected in the central valley from Santa Fe southward late
Thursday night through sunset Friday. Friday through Saturday
morning, a storm system will pass eastward over New Mexico with up to
a half foot of snow in the mountains, and a few inches across east
central areas and the West Central Highlands. Dry weather is expected
early next week as high temperatures struggle to reach normal.
Another storm system is forecast to drop southward over the state
toward the middle of next week with very cold air but only modest
precipitation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
Happy Thanksgiving! The weather today will be very nice for late
November and the last mild day for quite some time. Enjoy the day
with mostly sunny skies, near to slightly above normal temps, and
overall light winds for most of the region.

The next storm system will approach the area tonight as an H5 low
center deepens to near 555dm over central AZ. Meanwhile, a strong
back door cold front will surge southwest thru eastern NM with a
period of breezy conditions across the plains. The front will blast
west thru gaps in the central mt chain by sunrise Friday and deliver
strong canyon winds to the ABQ metro area. A Wind Advisory will be
needed thru Friday with gusts up to 50 mph likely in gap wind prone
areas.

The focus will shift to light snow development from west to east
thru Friday afternoon. A strong PV anomaly with the upper level low
will generate deep layer lift over increasing 850-700mb layer east
to southeast flow over NM. This storm system will be rather moisture
starved however dynamics will be impressive and temp profiles will
favor dendritic snow growth despite light QPF. Confidence was high
enough at this time to begin Winter Wx Advisories Friday for a few
of the higher terrain zones of northern and western NM. The greater
impacts will come Friday night.

Guyer

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
The center of the upper level low pressure system is forecast to
track eastward over NM`s US Highway 60 corridor Friday night, then
exit gradually eastward over north TX Saturday. Storm total snow
accumulation (Friday through Saturday morning) should reach a few to
6 inches in the southern Sangre de Cristo, Jemez, and west central
mountains, and potentially also in the Sandia, Manzano, and
Sacramento Mountains. A good portion of eastern NM (to the east of
the southern Sangres, Sandias, Manzanos, and Sacramentos), as well as
the West Central Highlands, may receive an inch or two of snow with
locally around 3 inches depending on where snow bands set up. These
amounts don`t sound like much, but considering the storm system won`t
have a low level moisture tap or a subtropical moisture tap aloft,
they`re actually pretty good. Forecast soundings indicate most of the
moisture in the dendritic growth zone Friday and Friday night, so
the upper low should be an efficient snow producer for the limited
amount of moisture it has to work with. With this forecast package we
will issue Winter Weather Advisories for the mountain locations
where we have the greatest confidence of reaching Advisory criteria
snow amounts. Later shifts will probably expand the coverage of
highlights.

With the cold core crossing squarely over the forecast area, and
fresh snow accumulating, we undercut the guidance on temperatures
Friday night and Saturday. Highs Saturday will probably vary from a
few to around 15 degrees below normal, with the greatest departures
over southern and eastern areas. The strong east canyon wind in the
central valley should taper off around sunset Friday evening, when
the center of the upper low reaches the central mountains. In the
wake of the upper low late Saturday night into Sunday, a back door
cold front will plunge southward and southwestward through the
eastern plains with wind gusts potentially around 40 mph. Another
gusty gap wind may then develop in the central valley from Santa Fe
southward due to the back door cold front Sunday afternoon and
evening. High temperatures should rise near and above normal on
Sunday across central and western areas, but readings will fall below
normal again across central areas on Monday due to the back door
cold front.

After highs near normal Tuesday, readings should fall below normal
again on Wednesday, when there will be a chance for wintry
precipitation as another moisture deficient upper level low pressure
system moves southward over the state with a sharp cold front.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The main concern for fire weather will be poor to fair ventilation
in most areas thru next week. Light snowfall will impact most of
northern and central NM Friday thru Saturday morning with colder
temps and strong canyon winds in the RGV. The next storm system will
move south from the northern Rockies Tuesday and/or Wednesday with
more cold temps and another shot for light snowfall.

Guyer

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from noon Friday to noon MST Saturday for
the following zones... NMZ211-214.

Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Friday to 4 AM MST Saturday for
the following zones... NMZ206.

&&

$$

 
 
 
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Avalanche Advisories for the Northern Sangre de Cristo mountains are issued by the Taos Avalanche Center.
Click here for the full advisory.