National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Does it seem like we have been in an extended cool period across the region?  If you answered yes, you would be correct. Looking back at the temperature departures from average across the region, we have been generally below normal since February of 2013.  The region considered includes the eight observing locations in the chart below across central and northeast South Dakota and into west central Minnesota.  The average temperature departures were figured since January 2009 or for a total of 64 months.  A temperature departure within one degree of normal was considered to be near normal for that month.  For our recent cool period from March 2013 to April 2014, 10 of these 14 months were below normal with 3 of the months near normal.  Only one month, September 2013, was above normal across our region since March 2013.  Looking back over five years since January 2009, there have been several notable extended cool periods with one extended warm period.  The notable cool periods were from January 2009 to February 2010 with 12 of 14 months having below normal temperatures along with only 2 months with above normal temperatures.  The other cool period was the 7 consecutive months with below normal temperatures from December 2010 to June 2011. The most notable warm period was from October 2011 to July 2012 with 10 consecutive months of above normal temperatures.

For the last 64 months since January 2009, the region has had 33 below normal temperature months or 52 percent of the period.  Twelve of the months through the period were near normal or 19 percent.  Nineteen of the months since January 2009 had above normal temperatures or 29 percent.   The coldest month during this time period was the 10 degrees below normal for February of 2014.  The warmest month was the 13.9 degrees above normal for March of 2012. Thus far, May 2014 has been much below normal across the region.  Also, this spring is already in the top 15 coldest for many locations across the region.  To note, last spring in 2013 was one of the top five coldest across the region.

As for the long range temperature outlook for the summer months of June, July, and August, enhanced probabilities of below normal temperatures are expected to continue across the region.  Although, looking at the chart below, the region may be due for some above normal temperatures over the next several months.   Note:  climate is the average of decades of data and extended periods of warming and cooling are expected.

Departure From Average

Month/

Year

Aberdeen

Sisseton

Wheaton

Watertown

Pierre

Kennebec

Mobridge

Timber Lake

Regional

Average

Jan09

-4.8

-4.4

-8.2

-3.7

+0.7

+2.8

-1.2

+1.2

-2.2

Feb09

-3.4

-3.8

-7.0

-1.6

+0.1

+1.6

-2.6

-1.9

-2.3

Mar09

-4.1

-4.7

-7.4

-1.4

-3.3

-1.7

-5.8

-6.0

-4.3

Apr09

-2.6

-3.7

-5.4

-1.3

-2.8

-2.8

-2.3

-2.6

-2.9

May09

-1.8

-2.1

-4.8

-0.3

-2.1

-1.4

-2.5

-1.2

-2.0

Jun09

-3.6

-2.4

-4.2

-2.4

-3.5

-4.6

-4.2

-3.9

-3.6

July09

-4.8

-5.6

-6.7

-4.7

-5.1

-6.0

-6.0

-4.1

-5.4

Aug09

-4.6

-4.5

-5.2

-2.5

-4.5

-4.6

-5.1

-3.2

-4.3

Sept09

+2.9

+2.6

+2.1

+4.2

+1.6

+2.5

+3.2

+4.6

+3.0

Oct09

-6.6

-7.1

-8.8

-6.2

-9.3

-9.2

-9.0

-9.1

-8.1

Nov09

+8.9

+9.4

+8.1

+10.3

+7.7

+7.3

+7.3

+8.2

+8.4

Dec09

-5.0

-5.5

-4.8

-4.3

-7.9

-8.0

-6.8

-7.2

-6.2

Jan10

-2.0

-1.4

-3.2

-1.1

-3.3

-3.2

-3.3

-2.1

-2.5

Feb10

-8.1

-8.0

-9.0

-5.7

-11.5

-9.6

-10.0

-10.2

-9.0

Mar10

+4.0

+4.5

+3.0

+5.5

+2.0

+2.7

+3.4

+2.6

+3.5

Apr10

+5.6

+6.2

+5.1

+7.5

+3.5

+3.9

+4.5

+3.7

+5.0

May10

-1.7

-1.5

-2.7

-0.4

-3.9

-2.8

-3.1

-3.2

-2.4

Jun10

+0.4

+0.2

-1.8

+0.3

-1.6

-1.0

0.0

-0.4

-.5

Jul10

+0.4

-0.3

-0.8

+0.8

-0.9

-0.4

-0.8

0.0

-.3

Aug10

+2.9

+2.0

-0.3

+4.9

+2.4

+1.9

+1.5

+2.2

+2.2

Sept10

-1.9

-2.9

-4.7

-0.5

-2.7

-2.7

-2.9

-1.6

-2.5

Oct10

+2.5

+2.0

+1.4

+3.3

+2.5

+3.1

+2.3

+3.1

+2.5

Nov10

+1.2

+0.6

0.0

+2.1

0.0

+0.6

-0.7

-0.7

+.4

Dec10

-3.0

-5.9

-5.8

-3.4

-4.1

-2.5

-4.9

-5.0

-4.3

Jan11

-5.2

-5.4

N/A

-4.8

-4.9

-5.0

-4.0

-3.5

-4.7

Feb11

-8.1

-5.0

-6.9

-7.0

-8.3

-6.6

-9.0

-8.5

-7.4

Mar11

-9.6

-8.8

-10.3

-7.1

-7.6

-6.1

-9.1

-7.9

-8.3

Apr11

-2.8

-2.2

-3.7

-2.0

-4.0

-2.9

-3.6

-3.1

-3.0

May11

-3.2

-4.3

-5.5

-2.1

-4.6

-4.8

-4.2

-4.6

-4.2

Jun11

-0.4

-0.7

-3.3

-0.4

-3.4

-2.7

-3.7

-0.3

-1.9

Jul11

+4.3

+3.0

+2.1

+4.8

+1.2

+3.2

+1.8

+3.3

+3.0

Aug11

+1.8

+0.8

-1.5

+0.9

-0.3

-0.6

+1.0

+1.7

+.5

Sept11

+0.1

-0.9

-2.1

-1.0

-1.9

-2.7

-1.1

-1.8

-1.4

Oct11

+5.1

+5.1

+5.5

+4.7

+4.4

+3.8

+4.4

+3.9

+4.6

Nov11

+2.2

+3.1

+3.7

+2.7

+0.6

+2.0

+1.5

+1.9

+2.2

Dec11

+8.7

+9.2

+9.7

+8.5

+6.5

+6.0

+7.9

+6.4

+7.9

Jan12

+9.3

+9.3

+9.8

+7.5

+6.5

+5.8

+6.9

+6.6

+7.7

Feb12

+6.3

+6.0

+6.6

+5.7

+1.8

+2.0

+1.8

+1.4

+4.0

Mar12

+13.9

+12.9

+13.6

+14.5

+13.9

+14.5

+12.8

+14.7

+13.9

Apr12

+4.2

+3.7

+3.4

+3.5

+3.8

+5.1

+3.5

+3.8

+3.9

May12

+2.5

+3.3

+2.7

+2.8

+0.4

+2.1

+1.1

+0.6

+1.9

Jun12

+4.3

+3.1

+2.1

+3.3

+3.7

+4.4

+3.3

+3.3

+3.4

Jul12

+5.4

+4.4

+4.2

+6.1

+5.9

+6.1

+5.8

+5.7

+5.5

Aug12

-1.3

-2.0

-1.7

-0.2

-1.1

-0.7

-0.8

-0.4

-1.0

Sept12

+0.3

-0.3

+0.4

+0.6

+1.5

+1.4

+1.6

+2.2

+1.0

Oct12

-1.1

-1.8

-1.3

-1.7

-1.6

-0.6

-1.9

-2.0

-1.5

Nov12

+1.6

+1.6

+2.4

+2.1

+0.5

+2.7

-0.1

+0.9

+1.5

Dec12

-0.3

-1.7

+1.6

+0.9

-0.6

+1.3

+0.3

0.0

+.2

Jan13

+1.4

+0.8

+2.4

+0.1

-0.5

+0.2

+0.3

-0.8

+.5

Feb13

-2.9

-4.5

-4.8

-2.6

+1.4

+1.0

+3.7

+3.5

-.7

Mar13

-10.1

-11.8

-10.7

-9.2

-5.1

-5.1

-6.1

-4.0

-7.8

Apr13

-9.6

-10.8

-11.9

-10.1

-9.4

-8.2

-9.7

-8.5

-9.8

May13

-0.2

-1.9

-2.3

-1.7

-1.3

-1.4

-0.1

-0.2

-1.1

Jun13

-0.3

+0.3

-1.1

-0.8

-1.0

-0.9

+0.4

-0.6

-.5

Jul13

-1.2

-0.6

-0.6

-1.0

-2.4

-3.1

-1.3

-1.0

-1.4

Aug13

+0.9

+0.9

+0.5

+2.2

0.0

-0.7

+1.1

+0.6

+.7

Sept13

+5.0

+4.8

+4.6

+6.4

+5.5

+5.2

+5.5

+4.4

+5.2

Oct13

-2.9

-2.1

-0.6

-1.1

-3.7

-2.5

-4.3

-5.0

-2.8

Nov13

-2.2

-1.2

-1.0

-0.8

-0.3

+0.6

-2.0

-1.0

-1.0

Dec13

-9.2

-8.6

-7.5

-8.1

-8.5

-7.2

-7.9

-8.8

-8.2

Jan14

-3.2

-2.8

-4.2

-4.2

+0.4

+0.8

-0.3

-1.3

-1.9

Feb14

-11.0

-8.6

-9.5

-10.7

-9.4

-8.8

-10.3

-11.3

-10.0

Mar14

-4.6

-3.9

-4.0

-5.0

-4.3

-1.8

-4.1

-3.6

-3.9

Apr14

-3.7

-4.0

-4.2

-3.3

-2.3

-1.8

-3.0

-3.0

-3.2