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000
FLUS43 KAPX 242020
HWOAPX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
420 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2019

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ016>018-020>036-
041-042-086>088-095>099-251000-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-Emmet-
Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-
Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-Manistee-
Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-Beaver Island-Charlevoix-
420 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for northern Lower Michigan...
eastern Upper Michigan...and adjacent nearshore waters of Lake
Michigan...Lake Huron and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

$$


000
FXUS63 KAPX 242359
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
759 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2019

.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 407 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2019

...Mild with increasing chances for rain showers early Thursday...

High Impact Weather Potential: None through tonight.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: Increasing mstr and chances
for precipitation.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...A weakening area of high pressure and
nearly zonal flow aloft, currently affecting the Great Lakes, will
exit east toward the mid Atlantic overnight. A weakly organized cold
front, associated with a storm system located over Hudson Bay, will
push across western Lake Superior and northern Lake Michigan
overnight.

Chances for precipitation will be limited across the Great Lakes
through the overnight hours as the lack of moisture and weak
dynamics hinder development. Model soundings show extremely dry
conditions from the sfc through 700mb (PWAT around 0.50in), while
850/500mb rh slowly increases to around 80pct in a narrow strip
right along the advancing frontal boundary. However, mostly clear
skies this evening will eventually become overcast as moisture
increases in upper lvls overnight.

Overall, based on the latest short term model data along with
current satellite and radar data, will continue to mention limited
clouds and dry conditions this evening. Will mention increasing
clouds tonight with small chances for rain showers developing across
northern Michigan between 09z and 12z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Thursday through Saturday)
Issued at 407 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2019

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal through the short term.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: A somewhat progressive flow pattern is in
place across the CONUS today with short-wave troughing and attending
cold front pressing through the northern Plains. Closing mid level
low and attending surface low is moving out of eastern Texas into
the lower Mississippi River Valley and will eventually phase with
the northern stream energy late in the week. Cold front will slowly
cross the northern Great Lakes late tonight through Thursday.
Meanwhile, a secondary wave of low pressure develops in the lower
lakes region along the front later Thursday...before pivoting up
through the eastern Great Lakes on Friday. Much colder air gets
ushered into the region later Friday (and beyond) as the entire
system departs.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: Minimal in the short term.

As mentioned above, cold front will be crossing through northern
Michigan during the day Thursday with a secondary surface low
spinning up along the front in the lower lakes late Thursday into
Thursday night. Guidance solutions continue to suggest a narrow
corridor of rainfall will develop along and behind the front later
tonight through Thursday along with additional showers pressing into
northern Michigan from the south. This will bring rain chances to
most of the CWA at various times through Thursday night although
overall rainfall amounts will be on the lighter side (one tenth of
an inch or less).

Drying back out for Friday and through much of Saturday with cooler
temperatures on Friday and colder temperatures still for Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 407 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2019

High Impact Weather Potential: Accumulating snow possibilities for
Saturday night->Sunday?

Hemispheric analysis reveals a somewhat progressive 5-wave pattern
around the northern Hemisphere, anchored by a cross polar trough
axis along roughly 70W and 100E. Longer term guidance suggests some
deepening and retrogression of the western hemispheric trough back
across eastern and central NOAM coincident with a strengthening
ridge through the Gulf of Alaska. This signals and supports the
anticipated cooling trend across the Northern Plains and Great Lakes
through the long term portion of the forecast. Overall cooling trend
will be accompanied by a couple waves/systems traversing through the
Northern Plains and Great Lakes region bringing additional precip
opportunities...including accumulating snow possibilities this
weekend.

Main forecast problem continues to focus on the system for this
weekend. Pacific system is looking to slide across the northern
Rockies and northern Plains heading into the weekend before crossing
through the western Great Lakes later Saturday into Sunday while
producing a decent core of heavier QPF through the region (quarter
inch plus). But...recent long term guidance solutions have wavered
back and forth on the track of this system. 12Z guidance is no
exception with most solutions shifting the system and heavier QPF
back south into southern lower Michigan. Problematic for us from a
forecast standpoint as it`s the difference between little or no snow
Saturday night and several inches. At this juncture, I`ve shifted
the better precip chances/QPF/snow back southward just a bit. But
there will likely be more adjustments coming over the next few days.

Behind that, another system later Monday through Monday night, but
remain to our south at this point.

High temperatures will run largely in the 40s this weekend and
40s/50s next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 759 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2019

Mostly VFR.

A cold front will slide into and across the region late tonight
and Thursday. This will bring scattered showers and a period of
lower cigs. VFR will clearly be the prevailing condition. However,
brief incursions of MVFR cigs and vsbys are possible

Mainly light winds tonight, become s early Thursday, then veering
to the w and nw.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 236 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2019

Winds will increase from the southwest through Thursday afternoon in
advance of a weakly organized front dropping south across the Great
Lakes, though winds and waves will largely remain below small craft
advisory criteria. However winds will shift northwest and become
gusty, nearing small craft criteria, in northern Great Lakes
nearshore waters Thursday night and Friday on the backside of the
exiting cold front.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SR
SHORT TERM...BA
LONG TERM...BA
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...SR