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000
FLUS43 KAPX 112049
HWOAPX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
349 PM EST Tue Dec 11 2018

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-
042-121200-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-Chippewa-
Mackinac-Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Charlevoix-Leelanau-Antrim-
Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-
Oscoda-Alcona-Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-
Gladwin-Arenac-
349 PM EST Tue Dec 11 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for northern Lower Michigan...
eastern Upper Michigan...and adjacent nearshore waters of Lake
Michigan...Lake Huron and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Pockets of freezing drizzle will linger through the remainder of
this afternoon, especially across the highlands of northern lower
Michigan.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Patchy freezing drizzle is possible Wednesday morning, and again
Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

$$


000
FXUS63 KAPX 112351
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
651 PM EST Tue Dec 11 2018

.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 321 PM EST Tue Dec 11 2018

...A rather quiet night...

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: Weak low pressure sliding southeast
vicinity Georgian Bay this afternoon, with attendant primary cold
front cutting across southeast lower Michigan, while a secondary,
partially lake enhanced, surface trough extends northwest from it
near the Saint Marys river. Mid level shortwave (responsible for
that surface low) is exiting stage right, with sharp shortwave
ridging following quickly on its heels into the western Great Lakes.

Large scale pattern remains a progressive one, allowing that
upstream mid level ridge to build quickly overhead tonight, all-the-
while next sharp shortwave trough digs into the Upper Mississippi
Valley by morning.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Cloud and temperature trends.

Details: Expect any lingering flurries/patchy light freezing drizzle
to come to an end as moisture depth further decreases with time.
Bigger question heading through tonight is just how much clearing is
realized as moisture depth becomes exceedingly shallow and lake
moisture contribution decreases with light winds and a modifying
thermal environment. Always a tough call this time of year, but tend
to believe at least some breaks in the overcast will occur. Just how
cold temperatures become is highly predicated on just how much
clearing is realized. Current thinking is for lows to range from the
upper teens inland to lower and middle 20s closer to the big waters.
If skies do clear, would expect our typical ice box locations to
become quite a bit colder by sunrise Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Friday)
Issued at 321 PM EST Tue Dec 11 2018

...A slow warming trend with continued chances of a light wintry
mix...

High Impact Weather Potential: Chances for freezing drizzle Tuesday
night and early Wednesday morning and again Thursday.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: Timing and type of pcpn with
weak features moving through the Great Lakes.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...The chances of light wintry mixed pcpn
will linger across northern Michigan through the work week, as a
couple of weak clippers and shallow upper lvl troughs push quickly
across the northern Great Lakes. Precipitation type, chance and
intensity will all be limited across northern Michigan through the
period, hindered by weak dynamics and continued lack of deep
moisture through the column. 850/500mb and 500/300mb vector
convergence shows the best forcing to be focused over the northern
Great Lakes through Wednesday afternoon, the result of a weak
feature moving across the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
Model soundings show abundant low lvl mstr (within temps between
-10c and 0c) trapped below the inversion through around 12z Wed
before mid and upper lvl mstr increases in the aftn with clipper
pushing across the state. This vertical mstr and temp profile would
suggest freezing drizzle again Wed morning. However, increasing mstr
and ice crystal seeding for aloft develops in mid and upper lvls,
will chance morning drizzle to snow showers by Wed aftn. An area of
high pressure will briefly settle into the Great Lakes Thursday
behind the exiting clipper, with model soundings again showing
abundant low lvl mstr (temps of -10c to 0c) favoring drizzle and
freezing drizzle Wednesday night and Thursday.

The chance for snow increases again Thursday night and Friday as mid
and upper lvl mstr increases in advance of a weak 500mb trough
pushing across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 321 PM EST Tue Dec 11 2018

There will be several chances for light wintry mixed pcpn across the
northern Great Lakes through the weekend, as a series of weak
clippers and shallow upper troughing pass over the region. Expect
drier conditions Monday night through Tuesday as sfc and upper ridge
build over the state and upper Midwest. Mid lvl temps in this
pattern through the weekend will linger around 0c to -2c before
warming to near 5c Monday night and Tuesday in developing upper
ridge.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 650 PM EST Tue Dec 11 2018

MVFR to VFR cigs. IFR vsbys in snow at MBL Wed afternoon.

Low clouds will be prevalent in moist/coolish air across the
region. Cigs will vary from VFR to MVFR. Low pressure will move
into southern MN Wednesday, and associated snow will reach MBL in
the afternoon. IFR vsbys expected there at times.

Light winds tonight, becoming se and a bit brisk on Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 321 PM EST Tue Dec 11 2018

Light winds expected this evening, with wind slowly
increasing in speed out of the southeast later tonight into
Wednesday morning. Not a significant wind event, but will likely
experience at least some small craft advisory conditions across
portions of the nearshore waters. Southeast winds, at times gusty,
continue through Wednesday night.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 7 AM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Thursday
for LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday for LMZ323-
341-342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 7 AM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Thursday
for LSZ321-322.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MB
SHORT TERM...SR
LONG TERM...SR
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...MB