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FLUS43 KAPX 241913

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
313 PM EDT Sun Jun 24 2018

Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-Chippewa-
Mackinac-Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Charlevoix-Leelanau-Antrim-
Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-
313 PM EDT Sun Jun 24 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for northern Lower Michigan...
eastern Upper Michigan...and adjacent nearshore waters of Lake
Michigan...Lake Huron and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Thunderstorms are possible Tuesday through Wednesday.


Spotter activation is not anticipated.


For more information visit


FXUS63 KAPX 241906

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
306 PM EDT Sun Jun 24 2018

.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 304 PM EDT Sun Jun 24 2018

...Drying out and cooling off tonight...

High Impact Weather Potential...None

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Cold front that pushed through earlier
this morning now sits well downstate as strong surface high pressure
centered over Hudson Bay continues to build into northern Michigan.
A significantly drier airmass associated with this high will
continue to progressively filter into the area through tonight.
Until then, afternoon PWATs still range from 1.1 to 1.4" from north
to south across the APX forecast area. Filtered sunshine has yielded
marginal instability across interior northern Lower, generally south
of M-72. There`s also some weak low level convergence south of Grand
Traverse Bay and a weak lobe of mid level vorticity dropping through
our southern counties this afternoon. These ingredients will
continue to provide a chance for isolated showers through the
remainder of this afternoon south of M-72 and generally west of
I-75. Very low chance for a rumble of thunder or two.

Heading into tonight, rising heights aloft will lead to increasing
subsidence. PWATs will tumble, dropping below 0.5" by daybreak
Monday across our northern counties. This is expected to scour out
most remaining cloud cover from north to south, leading to an
efficient radiational cooling setup overnight as the surface high
builds overhead. Temperatures expected to drop into the mid 40s
across eastern Upper and interior northern Lower with low to mid 50s
elsewhere. Winds will become calm or very light, which could
conceivably allow for some patchy thin radiation fog, but thinking
the big drop in low level moisture will generally prevent that from
happening in most areas. Wouldn`t completely rule it out for areas
that saw some rain in the last 24 hours, however.


.SHORT TERM...(Monday through Wednesday)
Issued at 304 PM EDT Sun Jun 24 2018

...Quiet Monday then showers/thunder chances return...

High Impact Weather Potential: Possible thunder Tuesday/Wednesday.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: High pressure centered over the eastern
Great Lakes will provide a mostly clear and pleasant Monday. Clouds
will be on the increase once again Tuesday as a low pressure system
over the the central Great Plains brings our next chances of rain
Tuesday through Wednesday as it tracks through the northern Great
Lakes. Thunder chances will increase throughout the day Tuesday as
the warm front associated with the aforementioned low pressure
system provides some additional lift. Have thunder in the forecast,
but not too impressed with the bulk shear values (only in the realm
of 20-30kts still). Best chances will be during the late evening
into Wednesday as a southwesterly low-mid level jet forms ahead of
the cold front associated with said system, along with increasing
ingredients for thunderstorm development. Shower chances will remain
through Wednesday as wrap around moisture lingers on behind the
departing system. Do not expect any storms to become severe at this
time. Expect embedded thunder in widespread rain that could produce
heavier bouts of rain and possibly some wind gusts to 30-40mph.

Highs Monday through Wednesday will generally be in the 70s, while
lows will drop into the mid 40s to low 50s Tuesday morning and only
drop into the mid 50s to low 60s Wednesday.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 304 PM EDT Sun Jun 24 2018

Rain showers/thunder remaining on the backside of the departing
system will diminish Thursday morning and high pressure will begin
to build over the Great Lakes region. Surface high pressure centered
over the Ohio River Valley along with a very strong (2-3 standard
deviations greater than the mean for this time of the year) 500mb
height...currently progged at 595 decameters. There is a strong
signal that this could very well set up northern Michigan for a very
hot and humid Friday through Sunday...reaching into the 90s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 144 PM EDT Sun Jun 24 2018

Clouds are beginning to slowly erode early this afternoon with
only a few lingering pockets of MVFR cigs, otherwise generally
VFR. Very small chance for a few pop up showers this afternoon
in the vicinity of TVC and MBL. Otherwise high pressure with a
drier airmass is slowly building into the region from the north,
which will eventually scour out most remaining clouds later this
evening. Winds will become light and variable overnight as the
high builds overhead, but low levels should dry out enough to
prevent ground fog development. Dry with few clouds on Monday and
light winds turning easterly.


Issued at 304 PM EDT Sun Jun 24 2018

Winds and waves are forecast to remain below SCA criteria through at
least Thursday. Widespread rain/thunder chances will return Tuesday
through Wednesday night/early Thursday morning as a low pressure
system tracks through the northern Great Lakes region.