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403
FLUS43 KAPX 171952
HWOAPX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
352 PM EDT Fri Aug 17 2018

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-
042-181000-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-Chippewa-
Mackinac-Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Charlevoix-Leelanau-Antrim-
Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-
Oscoda-Alcona-Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-
Gladwin-Arenac-
352 PM EDT Fri Aug 17 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for northern Lower Michigan...
eastern Upper Michigan...and adjacent nearshore waters of Lake
Michigan...Lake Huron and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms will impact parts of Northern Lower Michigan through
early evening, mainly south of M-32. Strongest storms may produce
hail and gusty winds. Any showers or storms through this evening
could produce locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a slight chance of thunderstorms across portions of
interior Northern Lower Michigan on Saturday. There is another
chance for thunderstorms Monday night and Tuesday across Northern
Lower Michigan.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather and
rainfall amounts to the National Weather Service. Reports may be
made one of three ways:

Online: weather.gov/gaylord
Facebook: facebook.com/nwsgaylord

Twitter: twitter.com/nwsgaylord

&&

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

$$



000
FXUS63 KAPX 171941
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
341 PM EDT Fri Aug 17 2018

.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 340 PM EDT Fri Aug 17 2018

...Showers and Thunderstorms Into the Evening...

High Impact Weather Potential: Thunderstorms through early evening.
Mostly non-severe, although a stronger storm/updraft could produce
hail...along with heavy rain.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Slow moving closed low is over
Chicago/southern Lake Michigan, associated broad surface low
pressure is across far southern Ontario. Showers and some
thunderstorms with this system continue across central lower
Michigan back into Wisconsin within the associated deformation
axis, just skirting our far southern counties.

Further north, lots of mid/high cloud cover has spread up into
northern lower Michigan, mainly south of M-32. SPC mesoanalysis
reveals in excess of 500 J/KG MLCAPE across the southern counties.
Some convection is now developing along the differential heating
boundary that bisects northern lower MI currently. Strongest
updrafts so far (supporting some elevated hail cores in the last
hour) have been (of all places) in Benzie/Manistee counties,
where the intersection of the Lake Michigan marine boundary has
helped.

Tonight: Closed mid-level circulation over the Chicago area still
expected to open up and advance through lower Michigan through
this evening. Band of showers/thunder associated with attending
deformation axis will largely stay to our south, clipping the
Gladwin/Arenac counties area.

Meanwhile to the north, as noted, convection has started along
the differential heating boundary that bisects northern lower
Michigan and will likely continue to percolate/meander across
northern lower Michigan over the next few hours before diminishing
this evening. Always tough to know exactly how convection will
ultimately unfold. But I suspect the bulk of showers/storms will
tend to contract inland and south over the next few hours.

Severe weather potential: Relatively light winds aloft, minimal
ambient shear, and higher freezing levels suggest a low severe
storm threat. But, as we`ve seen, strongest updrafts can support
marginally severe hail. And, slow moving/back building updrafts
will result in localized heavy rain. Will mention those in the
HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Saturday through Monday)
Issued at 340 PM EDT Fri Aug 17 2018

Saturday through Sunday

...Despite the Small Rain Chances Saturday the next Round of Dryness
Begins...

High Impact Weather Potential...Thunderstorms, but nothing severe
expected.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Models then begin to show another
"wiggle" in the 500 mb height fields for rain to be possible, but it
looks a lot less impressive than today`s convection, and yesterday`s
convection. Things diminish quickly by the evening and dry out
overnight. On Sunday, the high is built into the region, drying out
the state. The high continues over the region through the night.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Again is the thunder potential on
Saturday, Most of the models are pegging the area near M-55 and I-75
as where the convection would occur. While the consensus is in that
area, the ECMWF and the GFS have a broader coverage to the
convection Saturday. So, there is a lower chance that it will be
over portions of N Lower.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 340 PM EDT Fri Aug 17 2018

...Rain on Monday night/Tuesday then Pretty Much Dry through
Friday...

Extended (Monday through Friday)...The ridge breaks down Monday,
allowing a cold front and the 500 mb low trough to move into the
region. It looks like thunder will be possible as the cold front
moves into the area Monday night/Tuesday morning. Then the models
show a decent band of rain on the north side of the sfc low in a
deformation zone producing some rain, possibly heavy at times, as
the system move NE through the State. Will continue the cautious
optimism as the models are holding onto this feature, but details
are still a little less certain. As the GEFS plumes show the mean
over GLR just under 0.5", but the GFS model, itself showing 1.4" and
is the furtherest outlier. However, the latest ECMWF is also showing
over an 1" of rain in Gaylord, as well. So it looks like a good
soaker, but not sure about the heavy amounts that the deterministic
models are trying to produce. Wednesday through Thursday are dry,
then scattered rain on Friday so low chance pops there.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 121 PM EDT Fri Aug 17 2018

Closed low pressure system will slide through southern lower
Michigan this afternoon through this evening. Showers with this
system will remain largely through central lower Michigan. But,
daytime heating will once again fuel showers and some
thunderstorms across interior northern lower Michigan. This
activity is expected to remain away from the terminal sites.

Fog again tonight for parts of northern lower MI. But I think less
so at the terminal sites as compared to last night as we get some
drier air to bleed into the region.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 340 PM EDT Fri Aug 17 2018

Lighter winds and waves will continue to dominate over the next
few days. No marine headlines anticipated.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BA
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...JL
AVIATION...BA
MARINE...BA