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000
FLUS43 KAPX 211932
HWOAPX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
332 PM EDT Sun Oct 21 2018

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-
042-221200-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-Chippewa-
Mackinac-Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Charlevoix-Leelanau-Antrim-
Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-
Oscoda-Alcona-Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-
Gladwin-Arenac-
332 PM EDT Sun Oct 21 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for northern Lower Michigan...
eastern Upper Michigan...and adjacent nearshore waters of Lake
Michigan...Lake Huron and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

$$


000
FXUS63 KAPX 211929
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
329 PM EDT Sun Oct 21 2018

.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 326 PM EDT Sun Oct 21 2018

...Gradual clearing...

High impact weather potential...none.

1030mb high is centered near the south tip of IL, with ridging
extending ne toward Lk Huron. Winds are backing to the wsw over
northern MI as the ridge axis moves east, bringing in warmer and
relatively drier air. Clearing is not happening as quickly as the
bulk of the near-term guidance; this is not in any way a
surprise. But the low clouds are thinning in Manistee Co, as well
as western Mack and far western Chip Cos.

Sct light lake effect precip (mostly snow) is still seen over parts
of northern lower MI. In addition, low level warm advection is
resulting in steepening mid-level lapse rates, and somewhat bubbly
returns have developed over northern Lake MI and eastern upper MI.
This is part of a broader mid-cloud shield that extends back into
ne WI and central upper MI. This combined activity will gradually
migrate eastward out of the area, with the chance for mixed
precip lasting longest near Drummond Isl, almost until midnight.

Guidance is quite aggressive in clearing northern MI out tonight.
Sat trends do still favor this happening, but will need to slow
things down. Most rapid clearing will wait until after 8-9pm, but
should proceed fairly quickly from there. The pressure gradient
remains reasonably tight between high pressure to our s-se and a low
in far northern Ontario. But do not think it will be tight enough to
prevent decoupling in sheltered interior locales. Will go below most
gridded guidance, with readings dropping into the upper 20s in some
interior sections of both peninsulas. In most places though, warm
advection will keep readings milder (30-35f).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Monday through Wednesday)
Issued at 326 PM EDT Sun Oct 21 2018

...Mild Monday with showers returning by Tuesday...

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...A potent shortwave and corresponding
surface low will drop southeast through Ontario on Monday. Ongoing
warm air advection through much of the day over northern Michigan
will break down as a cold front sweeps through the region in the
evening hours. Another shot of cold air will then spill into the
Great Lakes through midweek as a strong Canadian surface high slides
into the region.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Precipitation potential late Monday
through Tuesday.

Southwesterly return flow behind a departing surface ridge and ahead
of an approaching cold front will result in a milder day on Monday.
There looks to be enough dry air and subsidence in the low levels to
allow for mostly sunny skies, and current upstream satellite data
lends support to this idea. Wouldn`t completely rule out some areas
of stratocu developing, however. Highs will climb into the low to
mid 50s, warmest across northeast Lower given SW wind downsloping.

Cloud cover will increase towards evening over eastern Upper as the
shortwave drops in from the northwest. Precip chances creep in
during the evening hours, but this generally looks like a quick-
hitting system with low QPF. There may be a little lake enhancement
overnight as H8 temps begin to fall, but lake processes will
probably not get into full swing until Tuesday morning when lake-H8
delta Ts become a little more substantial. Inversion heights will be
limited to ~5-6 kft and moist layer looks somewhat shallow, so not
expecting showers to be very robust. Should see activity begin to
diminish Tuesday afternoon/evening as winds veer northerly and
moisture strips out from aloft. However, did extend slight PoPs
through the overnight for areas near/south of GTV Bay to account for
typical lag from when guidance suggests lake effect will end. Mostly
rain showers Mon night - Tue night, but perhaps a nighttime RASN mix
in the higher elevations.

High pressure then builds in on Wednesday, providing continued cool
but quiet weather. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday will generally be in
the low to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 326 PM EDT Sun Oct 21 2018

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

High pressure slides overhead Wednesday night into Thursday
providing continued dry, quiet weather. Increasing upstream moisture
combined with a shortwave rotating through the Upper Midwest is
progged to bring the next chance of precipitation later Friday into
the weekend. Guidance becomes more murky for Saturday and Sunday as
it struggles with the interaction between system over the Gulf and a
deepening northern stream cutoff low...probably leading to a
Nor`easter by Sunday. Here in the Upper Great Lakes, there looks to
be some potential for showers at times over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 126 PM EDT Sun Oct 21 2018

MVFR cigs at times this afternoon, otherwise VFR.

Lake effect clouds and sct snow showers continue in the region, as
high pressure moves into the lower OH Valley. As the high
continues east, winds will back to the wsw, bringing milder and
drier air to the region. That will erode lake effect showers and
eventually clouds, with clearing 1st at MBL and taking longest at
PLN. Until this happens, MVFR cigs possible from time to time this
afternoon, especially at PLN. VFR otherwise.

WSW winds will be somewhat gusty at times this afternoon and
evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 326 PM EDT Sun Oct 21 2018

High pressure will transit the Ohio Valley tonight, while low
pressure moves into far northern Ontario. The pressure gradient
between the two will be tight enough for advisory-level gusts
and/or waves for much of tonight on most of our waters. Whitefish
Bay and the St Marys River look to be exceptions, though will give
that a fuller evaluation in a bit. Winds/waves will diminish late
tonight, though blustery wsw winds will return to Lake MI late
Monday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EDT Monday for LHZ345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EDT Monday for LHZ346>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EDT Monday for LMZ323-341-342-
344>346.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JZ


206
AXUS73 KAPX 061555
DGTAPX

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1155 AM EDT THU SEP 6 2018

...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN...

.SYNOPSIS...DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN ALLEVIATED OVER THE PAST
WEEK DUE TO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...
ACCOMPANIED AT TIMES BY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS ON AUGUST 28TH. SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN HAVE BEEN ELIMINATED WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL...WHICH
HAS TOTALED 2 TO 3 INCHES IN SOME AREAS OVER THE PAST WEEK.

.AREAS AFFECTED AND DROUGHT CATEGORIES...

THE FOLLOWING DESCRIPTION OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN DROUGHT CONDITIONS IS
BASED ON THE MOST RECENT U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR PUBLISHED ON SEPTEMBER
6TH...WITH THE REMOVAL OF DROUGHT CATEGORY D2...SEVERE DROUGHT...
FROM NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.

DROUGHT CATEGORY D1...MODERATE DROUGHT. RESULTS IN SOME CROP
DAMAGE...STREAMS AND RESERVOIRS RUNNING LOW. AREAS INCLUDED IN
DROUGHT CATEGORY D1 INCLUDES ALL OR PARTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...PRESQUE ISLE...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO...
MONTMORENCY...ALPENA.

DROUGHT CATEGORY D0...ABNORMALLY DRY. POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING INTO
DROUGHT...SHORT TERM DRYNESS SLOWING CROP GROWTH. AREAS INCLUDED IN
DROUGHT CATEGORY D0 INCLUDES ALL OR PARTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
CHIPPEWA...CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ALCONA...MISSAUKEE...ROSCOMMON...
OGEMAW...IOSCO.

.RECENT CLIMATOLOGICAL TRENDS...

PRECIPITATION DEFICITS OVER THE PAST SEVEN DAYS ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN HAVE BEEN RUNNING 150-300+ PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN...AND 100-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN SAVE FOR A SMALL AREA AROUND SAULT STE MARIE
AND KINROSS OF 75-100 PERCENT NORMAL RAINFALL. FOR THE MONTH OF
AUGUST...RAINFALL DEFICITS RANGED FROM 50-100 PERCENT OF NORMAL
ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AND CHIPPEWA COUNTY...AND FROM 100-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL
ELSEWHERE.

SELECTED RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE PAST WEEK ENDING 8AM SEPTEMBER 6TH:

THIS WEEK LAST WEEK ENDING 8/30:
TRAVERSE CITY (TVC) 2.90 3.66 INCHES
ALPENA (APN) 2.64 1.96
GAYLORD (GLR) 2.06 2.68
EAST JORDAN 1.91 2.78
ST. IGNACE 1.87 2.31
CHARLEVOIX 1.55 2.79
STANDISH 1.54 1.62
CHEBOYGAN 1.44 2.53
PETOSKEY 1.41 3.01
CADILLAC 1.38 2.53
DETOUR VILLAGE 1.38 1.75
HOUGHTON LAKE (HTL) 1.26 1.41
SAULT STE MARIE (SSM) 0.81 1.07

RECENT MONTHS PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL

APR MAY JUN JUL AUG
SAULT STE MARIE 0.00 +0.48 -1.27 -1.36 -1.21
HOUGHTON LAKE +1.02 +1.06 -1.92 -0.02 -1.31
ALPENA +2.64 +0.28 -1.75 -0.85 -0.14
TRAVERSE CITY +1.77 +0.35 -0.90 -1.41 +0.64
GAYLORD +2.23 +0.50 -1.81 +0.26 +0.27

AFTER A VERY COLD AND SNOWY APRIL...TEMPERATURES REBOUNDED DURING
MAY. SAULT STE MARIE... ALPENA...HOUGHTON LAKE...TRAVERSE CITY...
AND GAYLORD ALL RECORDED A TOP FIVE WARMEST MAY ON RECORD (TRAVERSE
CITY RECORDED ITS WARMEST MAY). TEMPERATURES REMAINED WARM IN
JUNE... CAPPED OFF BY A RECORD SETTING HEAT WAVE DURING THE LAST
COUPLE DAYS OF JUNE AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY
HOLIDAY (WHICH INCLUDED A 99 DEGREE HIGH AT ALPENA ON JUNE 30TH).
SAULT STE MARIE AND ALPENA BOTH RECORDED TOP FIVE WARMEST JULYS ON
RECORD. AUGUST ALSO ENDED UP AS A WARM MONTH...WITH TOP TEN WARMEST
AUGUSTS ON RECORD AT SAULT STE MARIE (3RD WARMEST)...HOUGHTON LAKE
(9TH WARMEST)...ALPENA (5TH WARMEST)...TRAVERSE CITY (9TH
WARMEST)...AND GAYLORD (6TH WARMEST).

.SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...

SOIL MOISTURE WAS WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS SPRING...ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE END OF MAY.
SOIL MOISTURE BEGAN TO DROP DURING JUNE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS. AS OF SEPTEMBER 6TH...SOIL MOISTURE PERCENTILES
HAVE INCREASED ABOVE THE 80TH PERCENTILE (ABOVE NORMAL) ACROSS AREAS
SOUTH OF THE M-72 CORRIDOR IN LOWER MICHIGAN...AND WITHIN THE
"NORMAL" RANGE ELSEWHERE (CONSIDERED TO BE BETWEEN THE 30TH AND 70TH
PERCENTILES). SATELLITE DERIVED SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALIES SHOW SURFACE
SOIL MOISTURE (TOP 2CM) HAS INCREASED ABOVE THE 80TH PERCENTILE
ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN...WHILE ROOT ZONE (TOP 1M) SOIL
MOISTURE IS ABOVE THE 95TH PERCENTILE ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER
AND ALONG THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE COUNTIES OF NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS...

DISCHARGE VALUES AT MOST RIVER GAGING STATIONS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN ARE NOW RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO
RECENT RAINFALL.

CURRENT STAGE AND DISCHARGE VALUES VERSUS NORMAL AS OF SEPTEMBER 6:

DISCHARGE (CFS) PCNT NRML/1 WEEK CHANGE

PINE R NEAR RUDYARD 131 127%/+ 13%
JORDAN R NEAR EAST JORDAN 200 116%/ 0%
STURGEON R AT WOLVERINE 282 153%/- 18%
PIGEON R NEAR VANDERBILT 115 177%/+ 22%
THUNDER BAY R NEAR BOLTON 577 172%/+ 80%
PLATTE R AT HONOR 189 159%/+ 8%
BOARDMAN R NEAR MAYFIELD 170 178%/+ 18%
SB AU SABLE R NEAR LUZERNE 172 117%/+ 6%
AU SABLE R NEAR RED OAK 1080 162%/+ 17%
AU SABLE R AT MIO 1300 157%/+ 27%
AU SABLE R NEAR MCKINLEY 1580 167%/+ 11%
AU SABLE R NEAR CURTISVILLE 1670 163%/+ 7%
AU SABLE R NEAR AU SABLE 2130 175%/+ 31%
MANISTEE R NEAR SHERMAN 1150 129%/- 12%
MANISTEE R NEAR MESICK 1320 130%/- 3%
MANISTEE R NEAR WELLSTON 2000 138%/- 17%
PINE R NEAR HOXEYVILLE 278 115%/- 29%
CLAM R AT VOGEL CENTER 82 90%/- 26%
RIFLE R NEAR STERLING 649 336%/+ 11%
SB TOBACCO R NEAR BEAVERTON 347 501%/+168%
TOBACCO R AT BEAVERTON 988 448%/+171%

.ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:
droughtmonitor.unl.edu

NATIONAL INTEGRATED DROUGHT INFORMATION SYSTEM:
www.drought.gov/drought

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER:
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

.NEXT ISSUANCE...

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED UNLESS
DROUGHT CATEGORY D2 (SEVERE DROUGHT) CONDITIONS REDEVELOP.

&&

$$

JPB