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Scattered Severe Thunderstorms Possible this Evening

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon through this evening, primarily across portions of northern lower and interior eastern upper Michigan. Damaging winds, large hail and Read More >


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FLUS43 KAPX 251617

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1217 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2019

Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-Emmet-
Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-
Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-Manistee-
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-Beaver Island-Charlevoix-
1217 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for northern Lower Michigan...
eastern Upper Michigan...and adjacent nearshore waters of Lake
Michigan...Lake Huron and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A few thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and tonight. A
few of these storms may become severe late this afternoon into
this evening, with the greatest threat for severe storms across
portions of northwest lower Michigan. Damaging winds and hail will
be the main threat with any severe storms that do develop.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorm chances return to portions of northern Michigan at
various times Thursday night through the upcoming weekend.


Spotter activation may be required late this afternoon and evening.
Dispatchers...please notify your Emergency Managers immediately.


For more information visit


FXUS63 KAPX 251428

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1028 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2019

Issued at 1027 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2019

The stratus deck is beginning to clear out as expected as diurnal
heating begins the mixing process. Forecast soundings continue to
show MLCAPE values between 1000-1500 J/Kg during the late
afternoon and evening hours. Will have to keep an eye out for the
mixing this afternoon and see if dewpoints lower beyond what is
forecast...which will obviously lessen instability. 12Z APX
sounding definitely looks favorable for shower and thunderstorm
development with no warm nose to cap the instability. Winds have
already been gusting to around 20 mph in some locations as mixing
begins...expect to see some wind gusts nearing 30 mph during the
afternoon hours as mixing maximizes.


.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 250 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2019

...Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms possible...

High impact weather potential: Slight risk for isolated severe
thunderstorms, especially later this afternoon into this evening.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: Rather impressive (at least for the
season) negatively tilted shortwave trough rotating northeast across
our area early this morning. Attendant surface low, it too rather
impressive for summer, down to 995mb`s centered just north of Lake
Superior. Vast majority of deeper moisture now well off to our east.
Still looking at plenty of showers, especially across the northwest
half of the area, as strong mid level dynamics pass overhead.
Shortwave trough part of larger broad troughing situated across the
northern Conus and southern Canada. Much less intense, but still
well defined shortwave trough racing east across North Dakota,
itself kicking off a few showers well to our west.

Northern Conus flow regime remains progressive today and tonight,
with quick departure of current wave to be replaced by that North
Dakota vort lobe by this evening. While most aggressive moisture
centers itself across the Plains, uptick in mid level support atop
developing cold front sets the stage for more shower and
thunderstorm chances, with even the threat a few of these may turn
severe late today into this evening when both wind fields and
diurnally-driven instability are maximized.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Addressing that
shower/thunderstorm potential and severe prospects.

Details: Gonna still be dealing with a few light showers early this
morning as initial system departs. Likely to see a several hour
break later this morning into early this afternoon, along with
rapidly clearing skies...waiting on arrival of that next wave and
attendant cold front to fire off additional activity later today.
Expect convective initiation to be found across upper Michigan where
west/southwest low level wind fields favor enhanced low level
convergence. Additional showers/storms expected to fire upstream
along the cold front, with these taking aim at northern lower
Michigan as we head into this evening. Latest SPC day one outlook
still places parts of northwest lower Michigan in a slight risk for
severe weather, with marginal wording across the remainder of our
area. Dynamics look decent, with mid level support atop that
developing cold front driven convergence axis. Attendant west flow
mid level jet results in the development of deep layer shear up and
over 35 knots, definitely supporting organized updraft potential.
Not entirely sold on amount of available instability however,
especially with concerns on how much low level moisture will mix out
this afternoon. As is often the case, hi-res NAM guidance appears a
bit too aggressive with over 1.5K joules/kg of mixed layer cape...a
result of driving dewpoints up into the middle 60s by early this
evening. Do think this is a bit overdone. However, all convective
allowing models show at least isolated storms developing into this
evening, suggesting that the atmosphere should destabilize enough to
at least kick off some activity. Given wind fields, its no doubt
possible some updrafts may become quite organized, producing at
least the threat for isolated severe wind gusts and marginally
severe size hail, once again especially across northwest lower
Michigan. Activity is expected to diminish as it heads east later
this evening as instability wanes, with much of the area likely dry
by sunrise Wednesday.


.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Thursday)
Issued at 250 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2019

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Rather zonal flow is expected to
encompass much of the midsection of the country Wednesday into
Thursday. A weak/flattening mid-level perturbation is expected to
race through the flow during the day Wednesday, but with little
fanfare locally given surface high pressure nosing into the region
from the south bringing lots of deep layer dry air with it. The next
wave beyond that set to increase shower/storm chances across
northern Michigan arrives late Thursday/Thursday night into Friday.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Late week precipitation trends
and timing.

Overall, a rather tranquil stretch of weather is expected to set up
across the region through the midweek time frame as quasi-zonal flow
sets up across the midsection of the CONUS. As was alluded to above,
a weakening shortwave is expected to cross the region Wednesday, but
with little fanfare given weak associated forcing and limited
moisture as high pressure centered to our south noses into the
region. In fact, latest trends continue to suggest that mostly sunny
skies will set up to be the rule through Wednesday, along with
mainly light westerly winds, as high temperatures climb back to near
to slightly above normal...ranging from the mid-upper 70s north to
the upper 70s - mid 80s south. Certainly seems feasible to have lake
breeze development off of Lake Michigan during the afternoon
warranting the mention of cooler temperatures near the lake.

Similar start to Thursday expected across much of the area with more
sun than clouds, light winds and temperatures climbing into the mid
80s across much of northern Michigan. Certainly some timing/strength
differences with respect to the next incoming wave Thursday
evening/night into Friday. Latest trends suggest showers and perhaps
a few storms arriving Thursday night, but plenty of time for
confidence to increase on timing and thunderstorm chances over the
next several days.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 250 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2019

High Impact Weather Potential: Occasional thunderstorm chances at
various times through much of the extended forecast period.

Initial wave alluded to above continues to shift off to the east
during the day Friday leading to a return of drier weather, at least
briefly. However, upper-level ridging is progged to build across the
middle of the country this weekend with northern Michigan sitting on
the eastern periphery of said ridging. While confidence is fairly
low in any one specific solution panning out at this juncture, the
large scale pattern certainly has the feeling of a "ring of fire"
with several waves rounding the ridge axis before diving
southeastward across the Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes at various
points this weekend. Worth monitoring as we head through the week
for at least the potential of a couple periods of active weather.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 642 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2019

Improving conditions expected to occur rather rapidly as we head
through this morning as clearing skies spread overhead. Still
looking at additional cumulus to develop this afternoon and
evening as another cold front crosses. May see a few gusty showers
and thunderstorms develop along this front, spreading from west to
east across the taf locations this evening. Gusty southwest winds
expected today.


Issued at 250 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2019

Round of gusty southwest winds expected today as low
pressure continues to deepen as it pushes north across Ontario.
Strongest winds expected to target Lake Michigan, where widespread
small craft advisory conditions are likely. At little less certain
elsewhere with flow being more offshore. Southwest winds gradually
subside tonight. West to southwest winds continue Wednesday, once
again become a bit gusty. Appears both winds and waves will remain
below advisory levels however. Will need to watch for some gusty
wind producing thunderstorms later today into this evening as a cold
front works its way across the region. Not expecting any widespread
activity, but there is a possibility a few of these thunderstorms
could become severe.


LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-341-
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ322.