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FLUS43 KAPX 170845

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
345 AM EST Mon Dec 17 2018

Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-Chippewa-
Mackinac-Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Charlevoix-Leelanau-Antrim-
Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-
345 AM EST Mon Dec 17 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for northern Lower Michigan...
eastern Upper Michigan...and adjacent nearshore waters of Lake
Michigan...Lake Huron and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Gale force wind gusts will continue today and into this evening
from Thunder Bay northward on Lake Huron, and also Whitefish Bay.
Please see the nearshore marine forecast for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.


Spotter activation is not anticipated.


For more information visit


FXUS63 KAPX 170844

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
344 AM EST Mon Dec 17 2018

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 343 AM EST Mon Dec 17 2018

High impact weather potential: Minimal.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

A shortwave trough and associated moisture-starved cold front are
pressing through nrn Michigan early this morning. There is no
synoptic precipitation with the front, but a pretty solid deck of
strato-cu and gusty winds within the colder air mass behind the
boundary, has been steadily been overtaking the region. Despite
relatively shallow moisture and inversion heights 4kft or less,
we`ve started to finally see a few weak radar echoes coming off of
Lake Superior as the H8 air temps have fallen to -10C for sufficient
overlake instability. CYAM has been reporting flurries over the past
hour or so. Further upstream, mid level ridging and sfc high
pressure was pushing into Plains.

The shortwave trough and cold front both press east of the region
today, while the H8 temperatures fall to a range of -6C over the GTV
Bay area to -12C in eastern upper. The low level lake effect
environment actually turns more harsh through the day, with a
lowering inversion to 3kft or less and less BL moisture. Really
doubt there could be any more than a couple/few tenths of snowfall.
The upstream mid level ridging and sfc high pressure with drier air,
settle in through tonight.

Highs today will be in the upper 20s to lower half of the 30s. Lows
tonight will dip back into the teens in most areas.


.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 343 AM EST Mon Dec 17 2018

...Quiet and fairly mild...

High Impact Weather Potential...Very low.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Minimal.

Surface and upper level ridge move slowly across the region Tuesday
into Tuesday night leading to quiet and fairly mild conditions.
Wednesday looks uneventful as well despite a weak trough moving by
to the north and a stronger approaching trough still a ways off to
our west. Highs Tuesday in the lower to mid 30s and highs Wednesday
in the upper 30s to around 40. Lows Tuesday night in the mid to
upper 20s.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 343 AM EST Mon Dec 17 2018

...Becoming slightly more active...

High Impact Weather Potential...None expected.

A more moist southerly flow develops Thursday with northern Michigan
in between a trough moving by to the north and a developing system
well to our south. The southern system ramps up across the eastern
Great Lakes by Friday drawing in colder air which hangs around into
the weekend. The result of all this is for increasing pops (for
mainly rain) Thursday into Thursday night with likely pops (highest
eastern zones) for a mix of rain and snow transitioning to all snow
Friday (perhaps with an inch or two of accumulation). It should be
marginally cold enough over the weekend for mainly minor lake effect
snow showers in westerly flow areas. Temperatures are expected to
remain a few degrees above normal over the next 7 to 10 days.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1132 PM EST Sun Dec 16 2018

As anticipated, earlier fog issues have ended with increasing
surface winds/temps over the last few hours. Cold front will be
dropping down through the region overnight turning winds into the
NW and becoming gusty. Arrival of colder air will drag MVFR cloud
cover down into the region as we go through the night and lead to
some lake effect snow showers as well.

MVFR to low VFR CIGS will continue to dominate through the day
and into Monday night. Gusty winds later tonight persist through
Monday before diminishing Monday night.


Issued at 343 AM EST Mon Dec 17 2018

The pressure gradient is tightening up with the passing of a cold
front early this morning. As a result, widespread advisory wind
speeds and low end gales were impacting the nearshore waters, which
will continue into this evening. High pressure will then arrive late
tonight into Tuesday, before winds pick up again ahead of the next
cold front set for Thursday.


LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 1 AM EST Tuesday for LHZ345-346-349.
GALE WARNING until 1 AM EST Tuesday for LHZ347-348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 1 AM EST Tuesday for LMZ323-341-342-
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 1 AM EST Tuesday for LSZ322.
GALE WARNING until 6 PM EST this evening for LSZ321.