Winter/Spring Flood Potenital Outlook

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME

357 PM EST THU JAN 23 2014

...WINTER AND SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE...

THIS IS THE SECOND WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR

2014...ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CARIBOU, MAINE.

THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS FOR NORTHERN, CENTRAL AND

DOWNEAST MAINE FOR THE TWO WEEK PERIOD FROM JANUARY 23 TO FEBRUARY

6, 2014.

THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR ALL OF NORTHERN, CENTRAL,

AND DOWNEAST MAINE IS BELOW NORMAL. LIKEWISE, THE POTENTIAL FOR

FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS IS ALSO BELOW NORMAL.

...CLIMATOLOGICAL GUIDANCE...

THE WILD TEMPERATURE SWINGS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

ALTHOUGH EARLY JANUARY WAS VERY COLD, THE WEATHER PATTERN QUICKLY

TURNED TO A MILD AND RAINY ONE. MUCH OF MID JANUARY WAS WARMER

THAN NORMAL WITH SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENTS. MORE RECENTLY,

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT BROUGHT ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST TO THE REGION

EARLIER THIS WEEK. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW AND

WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE

SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL USHER BITTERLY COLD AIR

INTO MAINE ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT

THESE COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH

NEXT WEEK. THE POLAR JET STREAM WILL REMAIN ACTIVE AND BRING

REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLDER AIR. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH

NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE LOW WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER

SYSTEMS EXPECTED. THIS THINKING MATCHES WITH THE OFFICIAL WEATHER

SERVICE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK WHICH CALLS FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES

AND NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION. LONGER-RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS THAT

TEMPERATURES MAY RETURN TO CLOSER TO NORMAL LATER IN THE PERIOD AS

THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR LIFTS BACK NORTH INTO CANADA.

...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTH AND WATER EQUIVALENTS...

THE RECENT WARM SPELL PLAYED HAVOC WITH MAINE`S SNOWPACK. SNOW

DEPTHS ARE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ACROSS MUCH OF OUR

AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS FAR NORTHWESTERN AREAS WHICH ARE CLOSE TO

NORMAL. AFTER A BIT OF SNOW YESTERDAY, COASTAL AREAS ARE REPORTING

AROUND 2 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND, WHILE INTERIOR DOWNEAST

REPORTS 4 TO 8 INCHES. THESE NUMBERS INCREASE AS YOU RISE INTO THE

CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND CONTINUE UP INTO AROOSTOOK COUNTY; SNOW

DEPTHS OF 8 TO 15 INCHES IS THE NORM HERE. THE SNOWPACK DEEPENS TO

15 TO 20 INCHES AS YOU ENTER THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. SOME SPOTS IN

THE BIG WOODS OF THE FAR NORTHWEST HAVE AROUND 2 FEET OF SNOW ON

THE GROUND.

THE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT (SWE), OR THE AMOUNT OF WATER CONTAINED

IN THE SNOWPACK, IS ALSO BELOW NORMAL IN MOST SPOTS. DOWNEAST

MAINE GENERALLY HAS AN INCH OR LESS IN THEIR SNOWPACK. NORTHERN

AND CENTRAL MAINE HAS 2 TO 4 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT, WITH

ISOLATED SPOTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AROOSTOOK

COUNTY.

...SOIL MOISTURE AND WATER SUPPLY CONDITIONS...

THE RECENT WARM WEATHER PATTERN RESULTED IN SNOW MELT AND RAIN,

ALLOWING SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS TO REMAIN WET ACROSS THE REGION.

THE LATEST PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX INDICATED MOIST TO VERY

MOST CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GROUNDWATER LEVELS

AROUND THE STATE REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

...RIVER AND ICE CONDITIONS...

RIVER FLOWS HAVE BEEN RUNNING HIGH DUE TO RUNOFF CREATED BY

SNOWMELT AND RAIN. THESE INCREASED FLOWS RESULTED IN ICE BREAK UP

ALONG SOME OF OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN RIVERS. MINOR ICE JAMS WERE

REPORTED ON THE NARRAGUAGUS RIVER IN CHERRYFIELD AND THE

MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER IN MATTAWAMKEAG. BOTH OF THESE JAMS WERE

FLUSHED DOWNSTREAM AFTER BRIEFLY SITTING IN PLACE. THE

MATTAWAMKEAG JAM LATER FETCHED UP ALONG SOME ISLANDS IN THE

PENOBSCOT RIVER NEAR WINN. A VERY LARGE JAM DEVELOPED ALONG THE

PISCATAQUIS RIVER WHEN ICE BROKE UP NEAR MEDFORD AND MOVED

DOWNSTREAM TO THE MAXFIELD-HOWLAND LINE. THIS JAM IS NEARLY 1

MILE LONG AND DID RESULT IN SOME MINOR FLOODING ALONG LOCAL ROADS.

IN ADDITION, ICE BROKE UP ALONG KENDUSKEAG STREAM IN DOWNTOWN

BANGOR, THREATENING THE LOW-LYING PARKING LOTS AND PEDESTRIAN

BRIDGES IN THE AREA. THERE IS ALSO A MINOR JAM ALONG THE EAST

BRANCH OF THE PENOBSCOT RIVER NEAR GRINDSTONE. THESE JAMS REMAIN

IN PLACE AT THIS TIME. RIVER FLOWS HAVE RECEDED SINCE THE COLD DRY

WEATHER HAS RESUMED AND SNOWMELT ENDED. THE BITTER COLD HAS ALSO

ALLOWED THE OPEN SPOTS TO BEGIN TO REFREEZE. IT IS EXPECTED THAT

THESE JAMS WILL FREEZE IN PLACE AND REMAIN SO UNTIL SPRING BREAK

UP OCCURS.

THE NORTHERN RIVERS, INCLUDING THE AROOSTOOK AND SAINT JOHN, STILL

HAVE SOLID ICE COVER FOR MUCH OF THEIR LENGTHS. THERE WAS A BIT OF

ICE BREAK UP IN SOME PLACES OWING TO INCREASED FLOWS, BUT THIS WAS

VERY MINOR AND NO JAMS WERE NOTED. THE ICE COVER WILL ONLY

STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS AS THE COLD AIR LINGERS

ACROSS THE REGION.

...IN CONCLUSION...

BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED INFORMATION, THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD

POTENTIAL IS BELOW NORMAL ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN, CENTRAL AND

DOWNEAST MAINE. ALTHOUGH ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE WET, SNOW

DEPTHS AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME

OF YEAR. THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN COLD OVER THE NEXT 7

TO 10 DAYS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORESEEABLE

FUTURE.

THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAM FLOODING IS ALSO BELOW NORMAL. ALTHOUGH

ICE JAMS EXIST ALONG THE PISCATAQUIS AND PENOBSCOT RIVERS,

INCLUDING THE EAST BRANCH, AND KENDUSKEAG STREAM, THESE JAMS ARE

SETTLING IN PLACE AS WATERS RECEDE. COLDER WEATHER WILL ONLY LOCK

THESE JAMS TIGHTER IN PLACE. ALTHOUGH FREEZE UP JAMS MAY OCCUR AS

OPEN AREAS RE-FREEZE, THE POTENTIAL IS LOW. FURTHER NORTH, THE

ICE IS WELL ESTABLISHED ON THE SAINT JOHN, AROOSTOOK, AND ALLAGASH

WATERWAYS. NO SIGNIFICANT ICE MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY

NWS CARIBOU ON THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 6, 2014.