000 ACUS02 KWNS 280542 SWODY2 SPC AC 280540 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough/low will dig southward very near the northern and central CA Coast on Friday. Isolated lightning flashes may occur across parts of coastal central CA through the period, as cold mid-level temperatures aid in the development of weak MUCAPE and ascent associated with the upper trough/low overspreads this region. A separate area of isolated thunderstorm potential, mainly related to orographic lift, also remains apparent over portions of central Rockies. Farther east, a modified Gulf airmass will slowly advance northward from the southern Plains into parts of the mid MS Valley and Upper Midwest through Friday evening. The northern extent of this low-level moisture plume should remain rather shallow and limited, with surface dewpoints no greater than the low 50s expected. Still, a low-amplitude shortwave trough that will eject across the northern/central Plains should aid in weak cyclogenesis across the Upper Midwest, with a related weak surface low forecast to be located along/near the MO/IA border Friday evening. These features should provide sufficient lift, in tandem with a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet, to support thunderstorm development mainly Friday evening into early Saturday morning from parts of the mid MO Valley into the Midwest and southern Great Lakes. Even though deep-layer shear is forecast to become strong in this time frame, convection will probably tend to remain elevated. Generally weak MUCAPE (500-1000 J/kg) should limit the threat for severe-caliber hail, although small hail with the most robust updrafts appears possible. ..Gleason.. 03/28/2024 $$