National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
305 PM EST THU MAR 7 2019


...2019 SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 2...

Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service probabilistic outlook
 for the major rivers in the Saginaw River basin and the Clinton
 ...Rouge...Huron and Raisin River basins...

The Detroit/Pontiac office of the National Weather Service has
implemented Advance Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) for all
the model locations in the above mentioned basins. AHPS enables
the National Weather Service to provide long range probabilistic
river outlooks. This service is also available on the internet
at WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX.

In the table below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more then HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher then normal. When the value of CS is
less then HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 03/11/2019 - 06/09/2019

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
Clinton River
Clinton Township 16.0   17.0   19.0    11   19    6    7   <5   <5
North Branch Clinton River
Mt Clemens       15.0   16.0   18.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Clinton River
MT Clemens       16.0   17.0   18.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
River Rouge
Detroit          15.0   18.0   20.0    20   23   <5   <5   <5   <5
Middle River Rouge
Dearborn Hts     10.0   11.0   12.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Lower Rouge River
Dearborn         11.0   12.0   13.0     7    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
Mill Creek
Dexter           12.0   13.0   14.0    <5   10   <5    7   <5   <5
Huron River
Hamburg           6.5    7.0    7.5    14   38    7   26   <5   14
Ann Arbor        16.0   17.0   18.0    <5    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
River Raisin
Tecumseh         13.0   14.0   15.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Adrian           18.0   19.0   20.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Blissfield       683.0  685.0  687.0     9   15   <5    6   <5   <5
Dundee          650.0  652.0  653.0     8   12   <5    6   <5   <5
Monroe            9.0   10.0   11.0     8   14   <5   <5   <5   <5


LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 03/11/2019 - 06/09/2019

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
Pine River
Midland          12.0   14.0   16.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Tittabawassee River
Midland          24.0   25.0   28.0    44   16   28   14   <5   <5
Shiawassee River
Owosso            7.0    9.0   10.0    17   21   <5   <5   <5   <5
Kearsley Creek
Davison          10.0   11.0   12.0    24   33   <5   <5   <5   <5
Flint River
Flint            13.0   15.0   17.0    <5    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
Cass River
Cass City        14.0   18.0   20.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Vassar           14.0   15.0   18.0    <5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Frankenmuth      17.0   20.0   25.0    13   22   <5    7   <5   <5
Saginaw River
Saginaw          17.0   19.0   24.0    30   21   <5   12   <5   <5


LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET



...PAST PRECIPITATION...
Precipitation this winter has been around to slightly below average.
Snow fall has also been below average across the area.


...RIVER CONDITIONS...
River flow is below average for most of the rivers.  Rivers have
become iced covered or partially ice covered in the past few weeks
due to the below average temperatures.

...SOIL CONDITIONS AND FROST DEPTH...
Ground temperatures are below freezing down to about 5 feet across
the Thumb to about 4 feet across Oakland county and 2 feet towards
the Ohio border.  Frost depths are about 2 feet across the north to
about a foot towards the Ohio border. Soil moisture remains above
average.

...SNOW COVER AND LIQUID WATER CONTENT...
Snow cover is well below average for this time of year.  Generally
2 to 5 inches across the Saginaw Valley and Thumb with higher pockets
up to 8 inches across Midland county. Water equivalents here are about 2
inches or less.  To the south snow depths are about 2 inches or less
with water equivalents less then an inch.


...WEATHER OUTLOOK...
Rainfall from .50 to 1.0 inches is possible this weekend.  After, the
outlook for the next 14 days calls for average temperatures and below
average precipitation.

...FLOOD SUMMARY OUTLOOK...
With very little snow pack and water equivalent, the potential for
moderate to major flooding this Spring is much lower then average.
Any flooding will be due primarily to excessive rainfall. A storm system
this weekend of March 9/10 may produce one half to one inch of rainfall
which could produce some minor flooding.  With ice still in rivers, flooding
from ice jams is still possible.


This is the last schedule Spring Hydrologic Outlook for 2019.

Additional supportive data and explanations are available on the
internet at WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX