Straight line wind damage 01 Aug 2011

Wind & Hail:

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. WILL FOCUS ON A GFS/NAM BLEND THIS MORNING AS
ECMWF APPEARS TO BE HAVING TROUBLE WITH CURRENT CONVECTION.

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM OVERNIGHT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MN
WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF FARGO.
MOST AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST ARE BEGINNING TO SEE A MIX OF SUN
AND CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER AND ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION...BUT GIVEN CURRENT
SATELLITE TRENDS...HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE 
SOUTHERN VALLEY STILL SEEM REASONABLE. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 60S WILL SURGE INTO THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING
IN HEAT INDICES IN EXCESS OF 100 DEGREES. WILL NOT MAKE ANY 
CHANGES TO CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY. 

16 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NORTHWEST OF
PIERRE SD AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE ND/SD
BORDER INTO CENTRAL MN. MODELS SHOW SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO
SOUTHEAST ND BY 00 UTC TONIGHT WITH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT FROM
NEAR FARGO TO JUST SOUTH OF DULUTH. VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG WILL SURGE NORTHWARD...
RESULTING IN REDEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT. WILL LIKELY SEE A BREAK IN ACTIVITY THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...
BUT NEXT ROUND OF STORMS SHOULD INITIATE SOMETIME AFTER 21 UTC.
SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND BEING
THE MAIN THREATS. HOWEVER...TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN 
SHEAR PROFILES NEAR THE FRONT/TRIPLE POINT.

BIGGER CONCERN IS VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. OBSERVED PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES FROM 12 UTC BIS/ABR SOUNDINGS WERE NEAR 2 INCHES (200 PERCENT 
OF NORMAL) AND ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO NEAR 2.5 INCHES LATER
TODAY. WITH FLASH FLOODING THAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT WITH LESS OVERALL
AVAILABLE MOISTURE... WILL NEED TO CONSIDER FLASH FLOOD WATCH WITH
THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST PACKAGE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST MN...AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH/COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION...AS WELL AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE. STAY 
TUNED.

Wind

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Downed Trees Hope, ND	Damaged Grain Elevator	Unisys surface map of System	Caption

Hail

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Photos & Video

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