Overview
Straight line wind damages structures in Hope, ND on 01 Aug 2011.Wind & Hail:
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. WILL FOCUS ON A GFS/NAM BLEND THIS MORNING AS ECMWF APPEARS TO BE HAVING TROUBLE WITH CURRENT CONVECTION. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM OVERNIGHT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MN WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF FARGO. MOST AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST ARE BEGINNING TO SEE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION...BUT GIVEN CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS...HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY STILL SEEM REASONABLE. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S WILL SURGE INTO THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES IN EXCESS OF 100 DEGREES. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY. 16 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NORTHWEST OF PIERRE SD AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE ND/SD BORDER INTO CENTRAL MN. MODELS SHOW SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST ND BY 00 UTC TONIGHT WITH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT FROM NEAR FARGO TO JUST SOUTH OF DULUTH. VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG WILL SURGE NORTHWARD... RESULTING IN REDEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. WILL LIKELY SEE A BREAK IN ACTIVITY THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON... BUT NEXT ROUND OF STORMS SHOULD INITIATE SOMETIME AFTER 21 UTC. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND BEING THE MAIN THREATS. HOWEVER...TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN SHEAR PROFILES NEAR THE FRONT/TRIPLE POINT. BIGGER CONCERN IS VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. OBSERVED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM 12 UTC BIS/ABR SOUNDINGS WERE NEAR 2 INCHES (200 PERCENT OF NORMAL) AND ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO NEAR 2.5 INCHES LATER TODAY. WITH FLASH FLOODING THAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT WITH LESS OVERALL AVAILABLE MOISTURE... WILL NEED TO CONSIDER FLASH FLOOD WATCH WITH THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST PACKAGE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING... ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST MN...AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION...AS WELL AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE. STAY TUNED.
Wind
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Downed Trees Hope, ND | Damaged Grain Elevator | Unisys surface map of System | Caption |
Hail
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Photos & Video
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