Summary of January 11th/12th 2013 Snowfall in North Dakota

Snow/Ice

A VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH NUMEROUS CHALLENGES IN REGARDS TO
CURRENT STORM SYSTEM. FIRST...WILL ISSUE AN ICE STORM WARNING FOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH 18Z FRI...WITH REPORTS OF
SIGNIFICANT ICING IN HUBBARD COUNTY. OTHERWISE...GETTING SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE STORM FOR TODAY INTO
SAT MORNING...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF VERY CONSISTENT AND WILL FOLLOW.

FOR TODAY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH 18Z...WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING
NEAR FREEZING. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COLDER
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH INCREASING NORTH WINDS. SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 18Z IN THE NW AND SPREAD SLOWLY SOUTH BY
00Z.

FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO SAT MORNING...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS SHOULD
DEVELOP IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AROUND 21Z...AND CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE BY 00Z HERE WITH VSBYS FALLING TO ZERO AT
TIMES THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE
DVL BASIN STARTING AT 21Z FRI THROUGH 18Z SAT. 

FURTHER SOUTH...EXPECT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP IN THE GFK
AREA IN THE 00Z-03Z TIMEFRAME WITH SNOW BEGINNING AND NORTH WINDS
GUSTING TO 45 MPH AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...EXPECT A WIDESPREAD DEFORMATION SNOW BAND
WITH STRONG MID LEVEL FGEN AND THE NOSE OF A 145KT JET AT 300MB
AND ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH NORTH WINDS INCREASING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH VSBYS TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES ESPECIALLY
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEAST ND INTO THE FARGO
AREA UP THROUGH NORTHERN BELTRAMI COUNTY FOR 00ZSAT-18Z SAT. FARGO
WILL BE CLOSE TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS THOUGH FROM 03Z- 12Z
SAT...AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR THEM FOR AN UPGRADE GIVEN THE
STRONG WINDS AND SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LOWER NEAR
FARGO THOUGH...PROBABLY IN THE 2-5 INCH RANGE. 925MB WINDS ARE
WEAKER HERE TO...AROUND 30-35KT COMPARED TO AROUND 40-45KT IN THE
NORTHERN VALLEY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHEST FROM NEAR
DEVILS LAKE TO AROUND HCO...WHERE 6-9 INCHES SHOULD FALL. WE
EXPECT GFK AREA TO GET AROUND 6 INCHES OR SO...AND LIGHTER AMOUNTS
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH AN INCH OR 2 IN THE FAR SOUTH. WILL
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHEAST THOUGH 00ZSAT-
18Z SAT WITH SOME SNOW AND WIND MAKING TRAVEL HAZARDOUS. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH SNOW
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA.

FOR SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS WELL
BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH MAIN ISSUE BEING MUCH 
COLDER TEMPERATURES. A BROAD TROUGH ENCOMPASSING MOST OF THE CONUS 
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ABOVE ZERO 
DURING THE DAY AND MAINLY BELOW ZERO AT NIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW 
WILL BE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH PASSAGE OF WEAK SHORT-WAVES IN 
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION 
SO ALLBLEND 20 POPS LOOK GOOD FOR NOW.   

Photos & Video

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10 January 2013 (College of DuPage Radar)	11 January 2013 (College DuPage Radar)	12 January 2013 (College DuPage Radar)	Snowfall Amount (NWS Snowfall Map)