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Freezes/Heavy Rain on March 13-20, 2023
 
The forecast map showed active weather over the middle of the country (rain and isolated thunderstorms in Arkansas) sandwiched between large areas of high pressure ("H") and freezes on 03/16/2023.
In the picture: The forecast map showed active weather over the middle of the country (rain and isolated thunderstorms in Arkansas) sandwiched between large areas of high pressure ("H") and freezes on 03/16/2023.
 

After a very mild winter, the forecast called for much below average temperatures and freezes heading into mid-March. Multiple freezes were expected on the 13th through the 15th, and again on the 17th through the 20th.

 

Arkansas experienced the third warmest winter on record from December, 2022 through February, 2023. Temperatures were almost five degrees above average.
In the picture: Arkansas experienced the third warmest winter on record from December, 2022 through February, 2023. Temperatures were almost five degrees above average.
 

The freezes were worrisome because vegetation was emerging rapidly from dormancy following the third warmest winter on record in Arkansas. Fruit was especially susceptible to the freezes, with temperatures expected to dip into the 20s, and mid/upper teens in places.

 

Temperatures across Arkansas were subfreezing statewide on the morning of 03/19/2023.
In the picture: Temperatures across Arkansas were subfreezing statewide on the morning of 03/19/2023.
 

On the 13th, subfreezing readings were mainly confined to the Ozark Mountains and parts of the northeast. These readings were more widespread on the 14th/15th, with much of the region affected. The mercury dipped to as cold as 19 degrees at Compton (Newton County), 21 degrees at Lead Hill (Boone County) and Marshall (Searcy County), 22 degrees at Calico Rock (Izard County), Salem (Fulton County), and Silver Hill (Searcy County), and 23 degrees at Blanchard Springs (Stone County) and Mammoth Spring (Fulton County). Parts of central and southern Arkansas stayed above freezing.

It was even colder less than a week later. On the 19th/20th, temperatures plummeted below freezing pretty much statewide. The thermometer bottomed out at 15 degrees at Compton (Newton County), Gilbert (Searcy County), and Strickler (Washington County), 17 degrees at Flippin (Marion County), Jessieville (Garland County), Mammoth Spring (Fulton County), and Mena (Polk County), 18 degrees at Calico Rock (Izard County), Fayetteville (Washington County), Harrison (Boone County), Murfreesboro (Pike County), and Rogers (Benton County), and 19 degrees at Bentonville (Benton County), Clinton (Van Buren County), Marche (Pulaski County), Mountain Home (Baxter County), Oden (Montgomery County), and Salem (Fulton County).

 

Twenty four hour rainfall through 700 am CDT on 03/17/2023.
In the picture: Twenty four hour rainfall through 700 am CDT on 03/17/2023.
 

Between the freezes, there was a brief warmup and areas of heavy rain. High temperatures were in the upper 50s to lower 70s on the 16th, and more than two inches of precipitation dumped from southwest into central sections of the state. Twenty four hour totals through 700 am CDT on the 17th included 2.55 inches at Crystal Valley (Pulaski County), 2.33 inches at Little Rock (Pulaski County), 2.30 inches at North Little Rock (Pulaski County), 2.17 inches at Antoine (Pike County), 2.15 inches at DeGray Lake State Park (Clark/Hot Spring Counties), and 2.10 inches at Sheridan (Grant County). Flash flooding was localized, with a report of water over Highway 8 between Rocky and Mena (both in Polk County). Severe storms stayed south/southwest of Arkansas (up to three inch diameter hail, straight-line wind damage, and isolated tornadoes in north central/northeast Texas and northern Louisiana).

Across the central third of the state, March rainfall was more than four inches wetter than normal at many locations. That was the case at Little Rock (Pulaski County) and Pine Bluff (Jefferson County). 

 

Precipitation in March, 2023 (Through the 16th)
Site Amount Normal +/- % of Normal
Fayetteville (NW AR) 5.18 1.95 +3.23 266%
Harrison (NC AR) 4.59 1.90 +2.69 242%
Jonesboro (NE AR) 3.54 2.47 +1.07 143%
Fort Smith (WC AR) 3.34 1.93 +1.41 173%
Little Rock (C AR) 6.93 2.60 +4.33 267%
West Memphis (EC AR) 6.05 2.69 +3.36 225%
Texarkana (SW AR) 2.47 2.45 +0.02 101%
El Dorado (SC AR) 3.35 2.68 +0.67 125%
Pine Bluff (SE AR) 7.68 2.78 +4.90 276%
Precipitation in March, 2023 (Through the 16th)  |  Precipitation in 2023 (Through March 16th)

 

In 2023 (through March 16th), these two sites had a surplus of rain by eight to more than twelve inches. At Little Rock (Pulaski County), it was the wettest start to a year since 1950.

 

Minor to moderate flooding was noted along the Black, Cache, Ouachita, and lower White Rivers on 03/20/2023.
In the picture: Minor to moderate flooding was noted along the Black, Cache, Ouachita, and lower White Rivers on 03/20/2023.
 

The rain kept tributaries elevated, especially in the south/east. Minor to moderate flooding continued along portions of the Black, Cache, Ouachita, and lower White Rivers.