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Storm Reports
Are you interested in what happened during a recent event? Check out the report below.
 
Heavy Snow on January 15-16, 2022
 
It was clear the heaviest snow would be in the Ozark Mountains on 01/15/2022. This is where incoming cold air arrived early in the event, and phased with the most abundant moisture. Confidence was high in lighter snow across western Arkansas as the cold air flowed southward toward the Ouachita Mountains. Farther east, the arrival of the cold air was in question. Timing the transition from rain to snow and forecasting accumulations was difficult.
In the picture: It was clear the heaviest snow would be in the Ozark Mountains on 01/15/2022. This is where incoming cold air arrived early in the event, and phased with the most abundant moisture. Confidence was high in lighter snow across western Arkansas as the cold air flowed southward toward the Ouachita Mountains. Farther east, the arrival of the cold air was in question. Timing the transition from rain to snow and forecasting accumulations was difficult.
 

Forecasting wintry precipitation in Arkansas can be very tough. The degree of difficulty increases when cold air is incoming and not already in place. Timing the arrival and depth of the cold air is hard enough (to determine precipitation types/amounts). Factor in terrain, and varying temperatures between peaks and valleys, and now there is quite a riddle to solve. Such was the case in mid-January, with a large puzzle to figure out, and it seemed there were missing pieces.

 

Model Performance

It is expected that forecast models may not have a great handle on how an event will unfold several days to a week in advance. There is usually disagreement between the models on storm system placement, projected temperatures, available moisture, etc. But as the event nears, the models often come into alignment and offer more consistent output. That did not happen in the days leading up to January 15th. Model consensus with regard to snow accumulations was not reached, and computed amounts were all over the place.

 

In the video: Water vapor satellite imagery showed a storm system intensifying as it approached Arkansas from the southern Plains on 01/15/2022, and then heading toward the East Coast.
 

The storm system to watch visited from the north by the 15th. The system already dumped heavy snow from Minnesota into Iowa and Missouri. Cold (subfreezing) air settled into northwest Arkansas early in the day, so it was easy to forecast snow in the Ozark Mountains. This is where significant accumulations were the most likely.

 

At 100 pm CST on 01/15/2022, snow was falling in western Arkansas, with rain in central and eastern sections. Temperatures ranged from the mid 20s in the northwest to the mid 40s in the east.
In the picture: At 100 pm CST on 01/15/2022, snow was falling in western Arkansas, with rain in central and eastern sections. Temperatures ranged from the mid 20s in the northwest to the mid 40s in the east.
 

From there, the cold air headed south through the Ouachita Mountains in the afternoon. Moisture was not as abundant as in the Ozarks, so snow was expected to be mostly light. Farther to the east (in central and eastern sections of the state), while there was plenty of available moisture, temperatures were well into the 30s and 40s. Readings would eventually drop, but when would it become cold enough to go from rain to snow? And if this happened hours later, would any moisture remain? There were so many questions to answer.

 

In the video: A traffic camera showed snow accumulating just north of Dennard (Van Buren County) along Highway 65 at 215 pm CST on 01/15/2022. The elevation was around 1500 feet. The video is courtesy of the Arkansas Department of Transportation.
 

In the Ozarks, there was a boatload of snow. Portions of Boone, Marion, Newton, and Searcy Counties were buried under eight to more than twelve inches of heavy wet flakes.

 

In the picture: A snow covered Backbone Mountain created bad enough travel conditions to force the closure of Highway 65 just south of Marshall (Searcy County) during the afternoon of 01/15/2022. The photo is courtesy of Bob King via Twitter.
 

Roads became treacherous to undriveable in places. Along Highway 65, for example, vehicles trying to climb Backbone Mountain just south of Marshall (Searcy County) got stuck and blocked the road. Eventually, local officials had to close the highway.

 

Snow accumulations in the twenty four hour period ending at 600 am CST on 01/16/2022. The heaviest snow (8 to more than 12 inches) was in the Ozark Mountains, especially in Boone, Marion, Newton, and Searcy Counties.
In the picture: Snow accumulations in the twenty four hour period ending at 600 am CST on 01/16/2022. The heaviest snow (8 to more than 12 inches) was in the Ozark Mountains, especially in Boone, Marion, Newton, and Searcy Counties.
 

By the time the event ended (early on the 16th), Valley Springs (Boone County) had 14 inches of snow, with 13 inches a few miles south of Marshall (Searcy County), 12 inches near Canaan (Searcy County), Harrison (Boone County), and Pindall (Searcy County), and 11 inches at Lead Hill (Boone County) and Witts Springs (Searcy County).

Breezy north winds gusting over 25 mph at times stressed tree limbs and power lines weighed down by so much snow. Over 10,000 power outages were reported as a result.

 

Snow (some heavy) showed up well on satellite in parts of northern and western Arkansas during the morning of 01/16/2022. There was also some snow (mostly light) in the east toward the Mississippi River.
In the picture: Snow (some heavy) showed up well on satellite in parts of northern and western Arkansas during the morning of 01/16/2022. There was also some snow (mostly light) in the east toward the Mississippi River.
 

In the Arkansas River Valley and Ouachitas, two to four inches of snow was measured at Clarksville (Johnson County), west of Dardanelle (Yell County), De Queen (Sevier County), Dover (Pope County), Fort Smith (Sebastian County), Mount Ida (Montgomery County), Subiaco (Logan County), and southwest of Wilton (Little River County).

 

Winter Storm Warnings (for heavy snow) were posted for much of northern and eastern Arkansas through the nighttime hours of 01/15/2022 and early the next morning. While this worked out in the north, it was overdone in the east.
In the picture: Winter Storm Warnings (for heavy snow) were posted for much of northern and eastern Arkansas through the nighttime hours of 01/15/2022 and early the next morning. While this worked out in the north, it was overdone in the east.
 

Folks toward Little Rock (Pulaski County) and points east did not get much of a taste of winter. It was just too warm, and stayed that way until after dark on the 15th. Appreciable snow tended to be spotty and elevation based. A couple or three inches of snow blanketed Petit Jean State Park (Conway County) and areas around Pinnacle Mountain (Pulaski County). There were even a few one to two inch totals in the south at Camden (Ouachita County), New Edinburg (Cleveland County), northwest of Star City (Lincoln County), and south of Warren (Bradley County). Otherwise, there was a whole lot of nothing to maybe up to an inch.

Interestingly, while the delay of cold air in the east minimized frozen precipitation, chilly conditions caught up with departing moisture in western Tennessee and northern Mississippi. The snow that didn't happen for many of us cranked up just across the Mississippi River. It was just that close.

 

A Drive to Work

At a neighborhood in Sherwood (Pulaski County), snow came down at a decent clip during the evening of January 15th, but it was brief. Snow stuck to roofs, table tops, and grill covers, but was gone overnight as if nothing happened. Heading to work the next morning (about 3.3 miles as the crow flies), the elevation went from 300 feet to 430 feet in a little more than a mile. The scene changed dramatically, going from no snow to a decent dusting on everything. There was a similar increase in elevation the rest of the trip, and now there was more than an inch of snow. Two to three hundred feet made all the difference.

 

The system responsible for areas of heavy snow east of the Rockies dropped southward from the Dakotas and Minnesota on January 14-15, 2022. From there, the system turned to the east and then tracked along the East Coast through the 17th.
In the picture: The system responsible for areas of heavy snow east of the Rockies dropped southward from the Dakotas and Minnesota on January 14-15, 2022. From there, the system turned to the east and then tracked along the East Coast through the 17th.
 

After the storm exited the region, it followed the Appalachians toward New England. Along the way, many locations got eight inches to more than a foot of snow, with one to two feet in northeast Ohio and western New York. There was an ice storm in parts of the Carolinas, and 50 to 70 mph winds along coastal Connecticut and New York. Power outages were in the hundreds of thousands. On the warm side of the system, tornadoes were spawned in Florida. One of the tornadoes (rated EF2) heavily damaged or destroyed at least five dozen homes near Fort Myers, FL.

 

In the video: The satellite showed a massive eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano late on 01/14/2022 (between 1000 pm and 1110 pm CST).
 

As this event was unfolding, one of the largest volcanic eruptions in several decades (according to scientists) happened in the south Pacific Ocean late on the 14th. The Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano coated nearby Tonga with a thick layer of ash, and sent tsunami waves thousands of miles away toward Japan and the western United States. In Arkansas, multiple social media posts from people with weather equipment showed quick pressure drops due to shockwaves from the eruption.

 

Storm Reports
Preliminary reports of snow in the Little Rock County Warning Area on January 15-16, 2022 (in red).
Submit a storm report.
There were many reports of snow on January 15th/16th. For a look at the reports, click here.
 
Link of Interest
Plot Reports
In the picture: Preliminary reports of snow in the Little Rock County Warning Area on January 15-16, 2022 (in red).