Welcome to the Statistical Modeling Division
Projects
National Blend of Global Models (NBM)
The National Blend of Global Models (NBM) combines statistically calibrated objective guidance from a wide variety of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems. The blended fields are compatible with the NWS's National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) and serve the needs of the entire weather enterprise.
GFS MOS
MDL's Statistical Modeling Division (SMD) applies the Model Output Statistics (MOS) technique to output from the NWS's Global Forecast System (GFS). This statistically calibrated objective guidance includes a wide variety of weather elements and time projections and serves the entire weather enterprise.
NAM MOS
MDL's SMD applies the MOS technique to output from the NWS's North American Mesoscale Forecast System (NAM). This statistically calibrated objective guidance includes a wide variety of weather elements and time projections and serves the entire weather enterprise.
EKDMOS
MDL's SMD applies the Ensemble Kernel Density MOS (EKDMOS) technique to output from the North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS). This guidance provides accurate and reliable probabilistic guidance for the temperature suite of weather elements.
MDL's ECMWF MOS

MDL's SMD applies the MOS technique to output from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting's (ECMWF) models. This statistically calibrated objective guidance includes a wide variety of weather elements and time projections and is provided within NOAA.
SREF Winter Guidance (SWinG)
SREF Winter Guidance (SWinG) uses output from the Short Range Ensemble Forecast system (SREF) to produce reliable and accurate probability distributions of weather elements at a set of stations. Unlike traditional Model Output Statistics (MOS), SWinG uses statistical postprocessing methods that work with short samples. The most important of these techniques is a modified form of Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA).
Information
Contact

Jeffrey Craven
Division Chief
Jeffrey.Craven@noaa.gov
301-427-9475
Welcome!
Welcome to the division that uses statistical calibration to add value to Numerical Weather Prediction systems.
What's New
- NBM v3.2 operational Feb 18, 2020
- NBM v4.0 coming in Fall 2020
Questions and/or Comments