Welcome to the Statistical Modeling Branch

About the Statistical Modeling Branch

The Statistical Modeling Branch develops and implements statistically calibrated objective guidance products from numerical weather prediction models for weather elements contained in public and aviation forecasts for use at Weather Forecast Offices, National Centers, River Forecast Centers, and public and private customers. Lead times range from a few hours to two weeks or longer in advance. Innovative scientific approaches are investigated to produce interpretive model guidance less sensitive to model changes, and to quantify uncertainty of weather guidance to improve weather decision services for events that threaten lives and livelihoods. To support the development of statistical forecast guidance, a high quality archive of observations and model data is maintained.



Jeff Craven photo

Jeffrey Craven

Branch Chief




Welcome to the branch that uses statistical calibration to add value to Numerical Weather Prediction systems.

What's New

  • GMOS 2.5km operational (replaced 5km GMOS) July 18, 2017
  • NBM V3.0 operational July 27, 2017
  • Updates to GFS MOS and NAM MOS winter 2017/2018
  • NBM V3.1, GMOS, and EKDMOS updates in Summer 2018

Questions and/or Comments

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