Welcome to the Statistical Modeling Division

About the Statistical Modeling Division

The Statistical Modeling Division develops and implements statistically calibrated objective guidance products from numerical weather prediction models for weather elements contained in public and aviation forecasts for use at Weather Forecast Offices, National Centers, River Forecast Centers, and public and private customers. Lead times range from a few hours to two weeks or longer in advance. Innovative scientific approaches are investigated to produce interpretive model guidance less sensitive to model changes, and to quantify uncertainty of weather guidance to improve weather decision services for events that threaten lives and livelihoods. To support the development of statistical forecast guidance, a high quality archive of observations and model data is maintained.



Jeff Craven photo

Jeffrey Craven

Division Chief




Welcome to the division that uses statistical calibration to add value to Numerical Weather Prediction systems.

What's New

  • NBM v3.2 operational Feb 18, 2020
  • NBM v4.0 coming in Fall 2020

Questions and/or Comments

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