Note:  While we are transitioning our web pages, product links marked with an (*) link to product pages on the old system. Products on those pages are up-to-date, but links on those pages may go to old information or may be broken. Thank you for your patience!

Overview

Ensemble Kernel Density MOS (EKDMOS) uses output from the North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) to produce reliable and accurate probability distributions of sensible weather elements. Grids are generated twice daily, based on the 0000 and 1200 UTC runs of the NAEFS. To express the probability distribution, grids are produced for a number of percentiles as well as for the mean forecast.

EKDMOS Products

ekdmos example image

EKDMOS became an operational product on NCEP's Central Computing System on Tuesday, May 29, 2012. It included gridded guidance forecasts for the following:

Weather Element Grid Time Projections
Temperature CONUS,Alaska,
Hawaii, Puerto Rico
Every 3 hours for days 1-7; then every 6 hours for days 8-10.
Dewpoint CONUS,Alaska,
​Hawaii, Puerto Rico
Every 3 hours for days 1-7; then every 6 hours for days 8-10.
Daytime Maximum Temperature CONUS,Alaska,
​Hawaii, Puerto Rico
Daily for days 1-14.
Nighttime Minimum Temperature CONUS,Alaska,
​Hawaii, Puerto Rico
Daily for days 1-14.
Apparent Temperature CONUS, Alaska,
Hawaii, Puerto Rico
Every 3 hours for days 1-7; then every 6 hours for days 8-10.
Wind Speed CONUS, Alaska,
Hawaii, Puerto Rico
Every 3 hours for days 1-7; then every 6 hours for days 8-10.
6-h PQPF CONUS, Alaska,
Hawaii, Puerto Rico
Every 6 hours for days 1-8.
12-h PQPF CONUS, Alaska,
Hawaii, Puerto Rico
Every 12 hours for days 1-10.

 

The NWS encourages our users and partners to provide feedback on EKDMOS by using the brief survey and comment form available below:

Accessing EKDMOS Guidance Forecasts

Use the links below to download the operational EKDMOS grids.

Download EKDMOS grids for the CONUS via FTP* Test grids via HTTP*
Download EKDMOS grids for Alaska via FTP* Test grids via HTTP*

 

Gridded guidance for Hawaii and Puerto Rico are currently available on MDL's download page for EKDMOS.  With EKDMOS v2.0.0, all grib2 products that are not available on the Satellite Broadcast Network will transition to this location.

Download EKDMOS grids for the Hawaii via HTTP*
Download EKDMOS grids for Puerto Rico via HTTP*

EKDMOS Versions

EKDMOS v2.2 - Current Operational Version

EKDMOS will begin running 4 times per day with this implementation to support the National Blend of Models V3.1. Additional MOS inputs (GFSMOS, NAMMOS, ECMWFMOS, and LAMP) will also be used as inputs. Additional details of this implementation can be found on the EKDMOS V2.2 page.

 

EKDMOS v2.1.1 - Replaced by EKDMOS V2.2 on October 3, 2018

This version of EKDMOS coincides with the NAEFS implementation and will use 0.5 degree gridded input from NCEP's GEFS and CMC's GEPS instead of 1.0 degree gridded input. This update also expands the clipping mask to cover the offshore marine zones off the west coast of the CONUS. Intermediate EKDMOS grids have also been expanded to cover the entire CONUS domain to support the National Blend of Models. These grids will still be clipped for dissemination and this change should be transparent to EKDMOS users. Details of the gridded changes can be found on the EKDMOS Verification page.

 

EKDMOS v2.0.0 - Replaced by V2.1.1 on July 18, 2018

This version of EKDMOS adds ~700 new stations for creating gridded products, a unified terrain over the CONUS consistent with the National Blend of Models, URMA, and other gridded MOS products, and probabilistic gridded guidance for Hawaii and Puerto Rico.