Localized Aviation MOS Program

Notice of Flaw in GFS-LAMP Thunderstorm Forecasts

 

THURSDAY JULY 27, 2006

 

Attention LAMP users:

The GFS-based LAMP thunderstorm probability and categorical forecasts, which became official in the NWS on 25 July 2006, presently contain a noticeable problem. The problem consists of choppiness/roughness in the forecast patterns and a slight degradation in accuracy. A fix for the problem is presently scheduled for implementation on or about August 1st.

The following image is an example that contains the flaw.

T-Storm Graphic with a flaw

The following image is an example of our fix.

 T-Storm Graphic with a fix


Please let us know if you see any further problems or have any questions.

Thank you for your interest in LAMP.

Dr. Jerome Charba and Jerry Wiedenfeld

NWS/OST/MDL/LAMP