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Changes to GFS-based MOS text and BUFR products: January 14, 2015

On or about January 14, 2015, MDL will implement a refresh of the GFS-based MOS guidance to coincide with the GFS model upgrade. This update will include the following changes to GFS-based MOS text and BUFR products. To see real-time comparisons of the currently operational and upcoming new MOS bulletins, please visit: https://sats.nws.noaa.gov/~mos/mos/gfsmos_eval/moscomp.php *

These and other details about this change are documented in Technical Implementation Notice (TIN) 14-47.

Redevelopment of MOS equations

  1. Updated cool season equations for the short-range (days 1-4) MOS text message from the 0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800 UTC model runs:
    • Daytime maximum and nighttime minimum temperature
    • 2-m temperature
    • 2-m dewpoint temperature
    • Wind speed
    • Wind direction
    • Conditional probability of freezing precipitation
    • Conditional probability of frozen precipitation
    • Conditional precipitation type best category
    • Categorical snowfall amount (24-h)
  2. Updated cool season equations for the extended-range (days 1-7) MOS text message from the 0000 and 1200 UTC model runs:
    • Daytime maximum and nighttime minimum temperature
    • 2-m temperature
    • 2-m dewpoint temperature
    • Wind speed
    • Wind direction
    • Conditional probability of freezing precipitation occurring (12-h)
    • Conditional probability of snow occurring (12-h)
    • Conditional probability of rain/snow mix occurring (12-h)
    • Conditional precipitation type best category (12-h)
    • Categorical snowfall amount (24-h)
  3. Updated cool season maximum and minimum temperature equations for short-range and extended-range COOP text messages.
  4. Updated cool season equations for the short-range (days 1-4) BUFR messages from the 0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800 UTC model runs:
    • Probability of precipitation occurrence on the hour (PoPO)
    • Probability of precipitation occurrence in a 3-h period (PoPO3)

Station Changes

  1. MAV and MEX text bulletins:
    • 339 stations are being added to the short-range and extended-range MOS text bulletins
    • 15 stations are being removed from the short-range and extended-range MOS text bulletins. These are sites that have closed, stopped reporting, or do not contain sufficient cases to develop a stable equation.
    • The identifier for Richlands/Tazewell is being changed from K6V3 to KJFZ.
  2. COOP text products:
    • 1468 stations are being removed from the short-range and extended-range COOP messages. These are sites that have closed, stopped reporting, or do not contain sufficient cases to develop a stable equation.
  3. MMG marine text products:
    • 2 stations are being added to the marine MOS message
    • 38 stations are being removed from the marine MOS message. These are sites that have closed, stopped reporting, or do not contain sufficient cases to develop a stable equation.
  4. RFC SHEF products:
    • 197 requested stations are being added to the RFC SHEF maximum and minimum temperature messages
    • 152 stations are being removed from the RFC SHEF maximum and minimum temperature message. These are sites that have closed, stopped reporting, or do not contain sufficient cases to develop a stable equation.
  5. Canadian products:
    • 3 stations are being dropped from the Canadian maximum and minimum temperature messages
  6. Addition of stations to existing regional equations:
    1. During our testing we did not find degradation in the weather elements below, they were not redeveloped at this time. Stations have been added to existing regional equations for the following elements in the short-range (days 1-4) MOS text message:
      • Total sky cover
      • Probability of a thunderstorm/conditional probability of severe (6-h)
      • Probability of a thunderstorm/conditional probability of severe (12-h)
    2. Stations have been added to existing regional equations for the following elements in the short-range (days 1-4) MOS text message:
      • Categorical ceiling height
      • Categorical visibility
      • Categorical obstruction to vision
      • Probability of precipitation (6-h)
      • Probability of precipitation (12-h)
      • Categorical precipitation amount (6-h)
      • Categorical precipitation amount (12-h)
    3. Stations have been added to existing regional equations for the following elements in the extended-range (days 1-7) MOS text message:
      • Mean total sky cover
      • Probability of precipitation (12-h)
      • Probability of precipitation (24-h)
      • Categorical precipitation amount (12-h)
      • Categorical precipitation amount (24-h)
      • Probability of a thunderstorm (12-h)
      • Probability of a thunderstorm (24-h)