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Changes to GFS-based MOS text and BUFR products: March 24, 2015

On or about March 24, 2015, MDL will implement a refresh of the GFS-based MOS guidance for the warm season. This implementation will also include updated cool season guidance for some elements.

To see real-time comparisons of the currently operational and upcoming new MOS bulletins, please visit: https://sats.nws.noaa.gov/~mos/mos/gfsmos_eval/moscomp.php *

These and other details about this change are documented in Technical Implementation Notice (TIN) 15-09.

Redevelopment of MOS equations

  1. Updated warm season equations for the short-range (days 1-4) MOS text message from the 0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800 UTC model runs:
    • Daytime maximum and nighttime minimum temperature
    • 2-m temperature
    • 2-m dewpoint temperature
    • Wind speed
    • Wind direction
    • 6-h/12-h probability of a thunderstorm
    • 6-h/12-h conditional probability of a severe thunderstorm
  2. Updated warm season equations for the extended-range (days 1-7) MOS text message from the 0000 and 1200 UTC model runs:
    • Daytime maximum and nighttime minimum temperature
    • 2-m temperature
    • 2-m dewpoint temperature
    • Wind speed
    • Wind direction
    • 12-h/24-h probability of a thunderstorm
  3. To improve the calibration for the cool season, equations for the following elements were updated for the cool season by adding three additional months of data to the training sample:
    • Daytime maximum and nighttime minimum temperature
    • 2-m temperature
    • 2-m dewpoint temperature
  4. Updated warm season maximum and minimum temperature equations for short-range and extended-range COOP text messages.
  5. Updated cool season and warm season mesonet guidance for the 0000 and 1200 UTC cycles. Guidance for mesonet sites is used in the RFC SHEF message and also influences the Gridded MOS analysis for temperature and wind (note that new mesonets are not being added to the Gridded MOS analysis at this time). These updates include the following elements:
    • Daytime maximum and nighttime minimum temperature
    • 2-m temperature
    • 2-m dewpoint temperature
    • Wind speed
    • Wind direction
  6. Updated warm season equations for the short-range (days 1-4) BUFR messages from the 0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800 UTC model runs:
    • Probability of precipitation occurrence on the hour (PoPO)
    • Probability of precipitation occurrence in a 3-h period (PoPO3)

Station Changes

  1. MAV and MEX text bulletins:
    • 2 duplicate stations are being removed from the short-range and extended-range MOS text bulletins.
  2. COOP text products:
    • 17 stations in the GFS MOS COOP short-range and extended messages which previously had guidance will now have missing forecasts. These are sites that have closed, stopped reporting, or do not contain sufficient observations to develop equations.
  3. MMG marine text products:
    • 2 stations are being added to the marine MOS message
  4. RFC SHEF products:
    • 71 stations in the GFS MOS River Forecast Center SHEF message which previously had guidance will now have missing forecasts. These are sites that have closed, stopped reporting, or do not contain sufficient observations to develop equations.
  5. Addition of stations to existing regional equations:
    1. Stations have been added to existing regional equations for the following elements in the short-range (days 1-4) MOS text message:
      • Categorical ceiling height
      • Categorical visibility
      • Categorical obstruction to vision
      • Probability of precipitation (6-h)
      • Probability of precipitation (12-h)
      • Categorical precipitation amount (6-h)
      • Categorical precipitation amount (12-h)
    2. Stations have been added to existing regional equations for the following elements in the extended-range (days 1-7) MOS text message:
      • Mean total sky cover
      • Probability of precipitation (12-h)
      • Probability of precipitation (24-h)
      • Categorical precipitation amount (12-h)
      • Categorical precipitation amount (24-h)