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About the MAV Text Product
The short-range GFS-Based MOS MAV guidance is generated from 0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800 UTC model output from NCEP's Global Forecast System (GFS). This guidance is valid for stations in the United States, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Station lists and histories can be found at MOS Station Archive Page. Forecast elements are valid from 6 to 72 hours in advance.
Detailed Documentation can be found in the following documents (pdf):
- Technical Procedures Bulletin : "GFS-based MOS guidance - The short-range alphanumeric messages from the 0000/1200 UTC forecast cycles."
- Technical Procedures Bulletin : - "GFS-based MOS guidance -The short-range alphanumeric messages from the 0600/1800 UTC forecast cycles."
The MAV Message
KDEN GFS MOS GUIDANCE 3/04/2010 1200 UTC DT /MAR 4/MAR 5 /MAR 6 /MAR 7 HR 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12 N/X 27 53 28 51 24 TMP 48 52 51 40 35 32 30 35 47 50 48 40 38 35 32 36 45 48 45 31 27 DPT 25 25 27 29 29 27 25 25 21 17 18 20 21 21 20 21 21 22 22 23 21 CLD BK SC SC SC SC OV OV OV BK BK BK SC BK SC SC SC SC SC SC SC SC WDR 19 14 13 16 20 20 25 25 28 28 28 22 23 23 22 21 12 10 10 17 21 WSP 05 12 11 08 08 07 07 07 08 10 11 08 08 07 07 07 07 10 10 08 07 P06 1 6 14 20 14 25 8 4 2 3 2 P12 15 27 26 4 3 Q06 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Q12 0 0 0 0 0 T06 5/11 1/ 2 0/ 1 1/ 2 8/ 3 1/ 1 0/ 0 0/ 0 2/ 8 0/ 0 T12 7/11 1/ 2 8/ 4 0/ 1 2/ 8 POZ 1 1 3 2 2 7 8 3 4 2 3 0 3 3 4 6 3 1 2 0 3 POS 27 16 18 24 28 65 74 72 31 20 37 57 94 87 95 65 41 18 28 50 91 TYP R R R R R S S S R R R S S S S S R R R R S SNW 0 0 0 CIG 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 VIS 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 1 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 OBV N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N |
- DT = The day of the month, denoted by the standard three or four letter abbreviation
- HR = Hour of the day in UTC time. This is the hour at which the forecast is valid, or if the forecast is valid for a period, the end of the forecast period.
- N/X = nighttime minimum/daytime maximum surface temperatures.
- TMP = surface temperature valid at that hour.
- DPT = surface dewpoint valid at that hour.
- CLD = forecast categories of total sky cover valid at that hour.
- WDR = forecasts of the 10-meter wind direction at the hour, given in tens of degrees.
- WSP = forecasts of the 10-meter wind speed at the hour, given in knots.
- P06 = probability of precipitation (PoP) during a 6-h period ending at that time.
- P12 = PoP during a 12-h period ending at that time.
- Q06 = quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) category for liquid equivalent precipitation amount during a 6-h period ending at that time.
- Q12 = QPF category for liquid equivalent precipitation amount during a 12-h period ending at the indicated time.
- SNW = snowfall categorical forecasts during a 24-h period ending at the indicated time.
- T06 = probability of thunderstorms/conditional probability of severe thunderstorms during the 6-hr period ending at the indicated time.
- T12 = probability of thunderstorms/conditional probability of severe thunderstorms during the 12-hr period ending at the indicated time.
- POZ = conditional probability of freezing pcp occurring at the hour.
- POS = conditional probability of snow occurring at the hour.
- TYP = conditional precipitation type at the hour.
- CIG = ceiling height categorical forecasts at the hour.
- VIS = visibility categorical forecasts at the hour.
- OBV = obstruction to vision categorical forecasts at the hour.
Definitions of Categorical Elements
MAV Ceiling Height Categories
MAV Visibility (VIS) Categories
MAV QPF Categories
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MAV Cloud (CLD) Categories
MAV Obstruction to Vision (OBV) Categories
MAV Snow Fall Amount Categories
MAV Precipitation Type (TYP) Categories
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Canadian Min/Max Temperature Guidance
In addition to the standard MAV output, additional guidance for Maximum and Minimum Temperatures is also available for select Canadian stations. This is currently only available as an all-stations text product (not included in GRIB and BUFR downloadable data).
Canadian Min/Max Temperature
GFS-BASED STATISTICAL MAX/MIN GUIDANCE 10/26/15 0000 UTC
MON 26| TUE 27| WED 28
CWIY 37| 20 43| 20 46
CWJI 51| 34 44| 23 43
CWJR 49| 41 53| 40 50
CWNM 50| 40 53| 42 50
CWOE 51| 33 43| 24 49
CWPE 46| 28 51| 33 53
CWPO 48| 32 46| 31 40
CWQP 50| 40 53| 42 59
CWRT 47| 30 44| 29 49
CWRY 56| 33 42| 23 53
CWSS 45| 23 51| 26 50
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