Drought Information Statement for The Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles Valid September 26, 2026 Issued By: WFO Amarillo Contact Information: sr-ama.webmaster@noaa.gov This product will be updated on or before October 31st 2026. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/AMA/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/[link] for regional drought status updates. Rain deficits continued to grow until about September 22nd before improving with a pattern change that brought several inches of rain to parts of the combined Panhandles. Some areas remain with high deficits at this time. 1 U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for [The Southern Plains] Drought intensity and Extent D4 (Exceptional Drought): A wide swath across the central to eastern Texas Panhandle to include parts of Oldham, Deaf Smith, Potter and Randall Counties. D3 (Extreme Drought): Parts of all counties in the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. D2 (Severe Drought): Parts of Texas and Beaver Counties in Oklahoma. Sherman, northern Lipscomb, and Collingsworth Counties in Texas D1 (Moderate Drought): Small areas of Texas and Beaver County in Oklahoma and Texas County. D0: (Abnormally Dry): None. https://storage.googleapis.com/noaa-nidis-drought-gov-data/current-conditions/nws-dgt-images/nws-u.s.-drought-monitor-southern.png Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to the latest 4-week change map for [The Southern Plains] Four Week Drought Monitor Class Change. Most of the area has seen no improvements or degradation in drought categories in the last 4 weeks. https://storage.googleapis.com/noaa-nidis-drought-gov-data/current-conditions/nws-dgt-images/nws-u.s.-drought-monitor-4-week-change-map-southern.png Precipitation Up until 9/22 2026 rainfall deficits remained between 6 and 9 inches below normal since Jan 1. A pattern change around 9/23 started bringing those deficits down by 2 to 4 inches, mainly across the western combined Panhandles. Temperature Valid 9/22, temperatures have remained 4 to 10 degrees above normal over the past week for the central to southeast combined Panhandles. The northwest third of the Panhandles saw temperatures 1 to 4 degrees above normal. https://storage.googleapis.com/noaa-nidis-drought-gov-data/current-conditions/nws-dgt-images/nws-30-day-temperature-anomaly-southern.png Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts Recent rainfall and forecast rainfall is prompting local officials to closely monitor playa lakes for flooding concerns. Agricultural Impacts Non-irrigated crops have been unable to grow at this time. Fire Hazard Impacts Lack of rain is leaving areas across the combined Panhandles with dead and dormant grasses still susceptible to fire starts. Recent rainfall in the past week have started to help improve vegetation. Greening of vegetation is slow and will need time to severely drop fire hazards in the long term. Other Impacts There are no known impacts at this time Mitigation Actions Avoid activities involving sparks and flames are dead vegetation. Clear brush from homes and property to mitigate threats of wildfires. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Recent rainfall in the past few days has brought many rivers and streams to near and above normal streamflow. Agricultural Impacts Soil moisture has recently began to improve since 9/22. However, in terms of the Crop Moisture Index, soils remain Abnormally Dry to Severely Dry with more rain and time to improve. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/palmer/CMI.png https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/cdus/palmer_drought/wpdanote.shtml https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/Figures/daily/curr.w.rank.daily.gif CMI Categories and Ranges Excessively Wet: Value of +3.0 or more Wet: Value from +2.0 to +2.9 Abnormally Moist: Value from +1.0 to +1.9 Slightly Dry/Favorably Moist: Value from -0.9 to +0.9 Abnormally Dry: Value from -1.0 to -1.9 Excessively Dry: Value from -2.0 to -2.9 Severely Dry: Value of -3.0 or less Fire Hazard Impacts Patchy areas of dry vegetation remains due to drought conditions Very few counties have lifted burn bans at this time. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast More precipitation is expected this week as an upper level system is forecast to come in from the west and combine with what is currently known as Hurricane Polo. Polo is expected to be a Depression around El Paso by 11 AM Wednesday morning (9/30). Current model blends give a 30 to 50 percent chance for 1” of rain in 24 hours across the combined Panhandles. Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage The combined Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles have a 33 to 50 percent chance for above normal precipitation for the month of October. The combined Panhandles are favoring near normal temperatures to slightly favoring above normal temperatures during the coming October. Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Drought conditions are expected to improve over the next 2 to 3 months. This is largely driven by expectations of impacts from a forecasted strong to very strong El Nino pattern.