Drought Information Statement for Deep South Texas Valid January 8, 2026 Issued By: NWS Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley, TX Contact Information: sr-bro.webmaster@noaa.gov This product will be updated around January 23, 2026, or sooner if drought conditions change significantly Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements Please visit https://www.weather.gov/bro/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates for regional drought status updates ***Extreme Drought Conditions Continue Across Most of Jim Hogg, Brooks, Northwestern Kenedy, Southeastern Zapata, and Northern Starr counties*** ***Severe Drought Conditions Expand Across the Upper Rio Grande Valley*** Drought Intensity and Extent Extreme Drought (D3) conditions are being observed across over 20% of Deep South Texas, including northwestern Kenedy, most of Brooks, most of Jim Hogg, extreme southeastern Zapata, and northern Starr counties. Severe Drought (D2) conditions are being observed across over 36% of Deep South Texas, including most of Zapata and Starr, the remainder of Jim Hogg and Brooks, northwestern Kenedy, and western Hidalgo counties. Moderate Drought (D1) conditions are being observed across over 17% of Deep South Texas, including the remainder of Zapata, southcentral to northeastern Hidalgo, northeastern to southwestern Kenedy, and southeastern Cameron counties. Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions are being observed across over 19% of Deep South Texas, including most of Cameron, the remainder of Kenedy, eastern Hidalgo, and northern Willacy counties. Recent Change in Drought Intensity In the past 4 weeks, there has been a 1 class improvement to drought conditions across most of Kenedy, Willacy, and Cameron counties, as well as western Zapata and eastern Hidalgo counties. In the past 4 weeks, there has been no change to drought conditions across most of Zapata, Jim Hogg, Brooks, Starr, northwestern and southern Kenedy, southcentral to northeastern Hidalgo, and southeastern Cameron counties. In the past 4 weeks, there has been a 1 class degradation across northern and southeastern Zapata, southern Jim Hogg, central Brooks, northwestern and eastern Starr, and western Hidalgo counties. Precipitation Over the past 30 days, Jim Hogg, Brooks, Starr, and eastern Zapata counties have received between 0-25% of normal rainfall, with the remainder of Zapata, southern Brooks, western Kenedy, and western Hidalgo counties receiving between 25-75%, and eastern Hidalgo, southwestern to northern Kenedy, northern Cameron, and Willacy counties receiving between 75-200%. Over the past 90 days, most of Deep South Texas has received between 25-75% of normal rainfall, with portions of northern Zapata, eastern Hidalgo, and southern Willacy receiving between 75-150% of normal rainfall. Temperature Average Maximum Temperatures over the past 30 days across Deep South Texas have ranged well above normal, 75 degrees and above. Average Minimum Temperatures over the past 30 days across Deep South Texas have ranged generally near to slightly above normal between 45-65 degrees. Overall, above normal temperatures are expected today into Friday, with below normal temperatures Saturday through Tuesday. Above normal temperatures return by Wednesday, January 14th. Summary of Impacts Hydrologic Impacts Streamflows remain below normal into January. Texas water share values have remained near 35% at Amistad and 17% at Falcon Lake. Agricultural Impacts Please see the latest Crop and Weather Report from Texas A&M AgriLife. Soil moistures are below to well below normal across all of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, especially across the brush country, while crop moistures are below to near normal from west to east. Fire Hazard Impacts Above normal wildland fire activity is expected along the lower Texas coastal counties through January, and all of Deep South Texas February through March, with near normal wildland fire activity returning in April. Burn bans remain in effect for all of Deep South Texas except Kenedy County. Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Streamflows over the past 7 days have remained below normal due to a lack of beneficial rainfall. Most of the streamflow across Deep South Texas is between the 10th and 24th percentile for this time of year (orange shading on the map). Texas water share values have remained near 35% at Amistad and 17% at Falcon Lake. Reservoir: Pool Elevation* (ft) | Current Elevation* (ft) | Percent Full* Amistad: 1117.00 | 1053.65 | 35.4% Falcon Lake: 301.20 | 255.86 | 17.6% Percent Full*: 1 Month Ago | 3 Months Ago | 1 Year Ago Amistad: 35.4% | 35.8% | 26.4% Falcon Lake: 15.7% | 16.5% | 14.4% * = Current Texas Water Share Agricultural Impacts Soil moistures remain below to well below normal across all of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, especially the brush country. Crop moisture indices are below to near normal from west to east across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Fire Hazard Impacts Keetch-Byram Drought Index values generally range from 500-700 across Deep South Texas, with 200-400 in northern Zapata, coastal Kenedy, southeastern Willacy, and northeastern Cameron counties. Above normal wildland fire potential is expected along the coast through Jan 2026, and all of Deep South Texas Feb-Mar 2026, before returning to normal in April 2026. Burn bans are in effect for all of Deep South Texas except Kenedy County. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast A strong cold front is expected to arrive on Saturday, January 10th, with a medium (25-40%) chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly along the frontal boundary early Saturday. A low to medium (15-30%) chance of rain and showers continues Sunday into Tuesday, mainly along the lower Texas coast with low pressure persisting along the lower western Gulf coast. Precipitation amounts between a trace to one-tenth of an inch are generally expected across most of Deep South Texas, with one-tenth to one-half of an inch possible along the lower Texas coast and lower Rio Grande Valley through Wednesday, January 14th. Overall, there is a low to medium (33-50%) probability of above normal rainfall through Saturday, January 17th across Deep South Texas, especially across the Rio Grande Valley. Long-Range Outlooks There is a 50-60% probability of above normal temperatures across Deep South Texas through the month of January. There is a 40-50% probability of below normal rainfall across Deep South Texas through the month of January. Through March 2026, chances are leaning towards above normal temperatures and leaning towards below normal rainfall across Deep South Texas. Drought Outlook Drought is expected to persist across most of Deep South Texas through March, 2026 Drought is expected to develop across portions of eastern Hidalgo, southern Willacy, and northern Cameron counties through March, 2026.