Drought Information Statement for Deep South Texas Valid January 16, 2026 Issued By: NWS Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley, TX Contact Information: sr-bro.webmaster@noaa.gov This product will be updated around January 30, 2026, or sooner if drought conditions change significantly Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements Please visit https://www.weather.gov/bro/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates for regional drought status updates ***Extreme Drought Conditions Expand Across the Northern Ranchlands and into the Upper Valley*** ***Severe Drought Conditions Expand Toward the Mid Valley*** Drought Intensity and Extent Extreme Drought (D3) conditions are being observed across over 44% of Deep South Texas, including all of Jim Hogg, most of Zapata, Starr, Brooks, and northwestern Kenedy counties. Severe Drought (D2) conditions are being observed across over 18% of Deep South Texas, including portions of northwestern Zapata, eastern Starr, western Hidalgo, southeastern Brooks, and northwestern Kenedy counties. Moderate Drought (D1) conditions are being observed across over 17% of Deep South Texas, including the remainder of northwestern Zapata, central Hidalgo, southwestern to eastern Kenedy, western Willacy, and southeastern Cameron counties. Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions are being observed across over 15% of Deep South Texas, including most of Cameron, southeastern Kenedy, and eastern Hidalgo counties, as well as both northern and southern Willacy County. Recent Change in Drought Intensity In the past 4 weeks, there has been a 2 class improvement to drought conditions across central Willacy County, with a 1 class improvement to drought conditions across most of Willacy, Cameron, central & southern Kenedy, and eastern Hidalgo counties. In the past 4 weeks, there has been no change to drought conditions across northwestern Zapata, northeastern Jim Hogg, northern & southern Brooks, and portions of eastern Hidalgo, western & southern Willacy, and southeastern Cameron counties. In the past 4 weeks, there has been a 1 class degradation across most of Zapata, Jim Hogg, Starr, Brooks, Hidalgo, and northwestern Kenedy, with a 2 class degradation across portions of central Zapata and eastern Starr counties. Precipitation Over the past 30 days, most of Zapata, Starr, and Jim Hogg counties have received between 0-25% of normal rainfall, with Brooks and western Hidalgo receiving between 25-75%, western Kenedy, Cameron, and eastern Hidalgo between 50-110%, and most of Kenedy, northeastern Hidalgo, Willacy, and northern Cameron counties receiving between 90-200%. Over the past 90 days, most of Deep South Texas has received between 25-75% of normal rainfall, with portions of northern Zapata, eastern Hidalgo, and southern Willacy receiving between 75-150% of normal rainfall. Temperature Average Maximum Temperatures over the past 30 days across Deep South Texas have ranged near to well above normal, 70-80 degrees and above. Average Minimum Temperatures over the past 30 days across Deep South Texas have ranged generally near to slightly above normal between 50-60 degrees. Overall, temperatures rollercoaster above normal today, below normal Saturday and Sunday, near normal Monday into Tuesday, and warm above normal Wednesday into Thursday, January 22nd. Summary of Impacts Hydrologic Impacts Streamflows remain below normal into mid-January. Texas water share values have remained near 35% at Amistad and risen to near 19% at Falcon Lake. Agricultural Impacts Please see the latest Crop and Weather Report from Texas A&M AgriLife. Soil moistures are well below normal across all of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, especially across the brush country, while crop moistures are near normal. Fire Hazard Impacts Above normal wildland fire activity is expected along the lower Texas coastal counties through January, and all of Deep South Texas February through March, with near normal wildland fire activity returning in April. Burn bans remain in effect for all of Deep South Texas except Kenedy County. Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Streamflows over the past 7 days have remained below normal due to a lack of beneficial rainfall. Most of the streamflow across Deep South Texas is between the 10th and 24th percentile for this time of year (orange shading on the map). Texas water share values have remained near 35% at Amistad and have risen to near 19% at Falcon Lake. Reservoir: Pool Elevation* (ft) | Current Elevation* (ft) | Percent Full* Amistad: 1117.00 | 1053.34 | 35.1% Falcon Lake: 301.20 | 256.12 | 18.8% Percent Full*: 1 Month Ago | 3 Months Ago | 1 Year Ago Amistad: 35.2% | 35.6% | 26.4% Falcon Lake: 16.1% | 16.6% | 14.8% * = Current Texas Water Share Agricultural Impacts Soil moistures are well below normal across all of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, especially across the brush country. Crop moisture indices are near normal across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Fire Hazard Impacts Keetch-Byram Drought Index values generally range from 500-700 across Deep South Texas, with 200-400 in northern Zapata, coastal Kenedy, southeastern Willacy, and northeastern Cameron counties. Above normal wildland fire potential is expected along the coast through Jan 2026, and all of Deep South Texas Feb-Mar 2026, before returning to normal in April 2026. Burn bans are in effect for all of Deep South Texas except Kenedy County. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast A strong cold front is expected to arrive on Saturday, January 17th, with a low to medium (20-40%) chance of light rain and showers, mainly along the frontal boundary and lower Texas coast into early Sunday, January 18th. A stalling frontal boundary with a passing disturbance aloft brings a low to medium (20-40%) chance of showers Tuesday, January 20th into Wednesday, January 21st. Precipitation amounts may vary depending on the location of the stalled frontal boundary mid next week, with generally 0.25 of an inch to 0.75 of an inch is expected west to east, with some model guidance indicating isolated amounts between 1 inch and 1.75 inches along the lower Texas coastal counties into Thursday, January 22nd. Overall, there is low to medium (33-40%) probability of above normal rainfall through Sunday, January 25th across Deep South Texas. Long-Range Outlooks There is a an equal chance of above normal and below normal temperatures across Deep South Texas through the remainder of January. There is an equal chance of above normal and below normal rainfall across Deep South Texas through the remainder of January. Through March 2026, chances are leaning towards above normal temperatures and leaning towards below normal rainfall across Deep South Texas. Drought Outlook Drought is expected to persist across most of Deep South Texas through April, 2026 Drought is expected to develop across portions of eastern Hidalgo, southern Willacy, and northern Cameron counties through April, 2026.