Drought Information Statement for Deep South Texas Valid February 4, 2026 Issued By: NWS Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley, TX Contact Information: sr-bro.webmaster@noaa.gov This product will be updated around February 20, 2026, or sooner if drought conditions change significantly Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements Please visit https://www.weather.gov/bro/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates for regional drought status updates ***Extreme Drought Conditions Continue Across the Northern Ranchlands and Upper Valley*** ***Severe Drought Conditions Continue into the Mid Valley*** Drought Intensity and Extent Extreme Drought (D3) conditions are being observed across over 45% of Deep South Texas, including all of Jim Hogg, most of Zapata, Starr, Brooks, and northwestern Kenedy counties. Severe Drought (D2) conditions are being observed across over 19% of Deep South Texas, including portions of northwestern Zapata, eastern Starr, western Hidalgo, southeastern Brooks, and northwestern Kenedy counties. Moderate Drought (D1) conditions are being observed across over 23% of Deep South Texas, including the remainder of northwestern Zapata, central to southeastern Hidalgo, southwestern to eastern Kenedy, western Willacy, and central to southern Cameron counties. Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions are being observed across over 9% of Deep South Texas, including southeastern Kenedy, eastern Hidalgo, most of Willacy, and northern Cameron counties. Recent Change in Drought Intensity In the past 4 weeks, there has been no change to drought conditions across northwestern Zapata, most of Jim Hogg, Brooks, and Kenedy counties, as well as portions of northwestern Starr, central Willacy, and northern Cameron counties. In the past 4 weeks, there has been a 1 class degradation across most of Zapata, Starr, Hidalgo, and Cameron counties, as well as portions of northwestern and southeastern Jim Hogg, central Brooks, Hidalgo, western and southern Kenedy, as well as western and southwestern Willacy counties. In the past 4 weeks, there has been a 2 class degradation across portions of eastern Starr and central Hidalgo counties. Precipitation Over the past 30 days, Zapata and Jim Hogg counties have received between 0-25% of normal rainfall, with Brooks, Starr, Hidalgo, Kenedy, Willacy, and Cameron counties receiving between 10-75% of normal rainfall. Over the past 90 days, most of Deep South Texas has received between 25-75% of normal rainfall, with portions of northern Zapata, eastern Hidalgo, and southern Willacy receiving between 75-150% of normal rainfall. Temperature Average Maximum Temperatures over the past 30 days across Deep South Texas have still ranged near to above normal, 70 degrees and above. Average Minimum Temperatures over the past 30 days across Deep South Texas have ranged generally near to slightly below normal between 40-55 degrees. Overall, temperatures cool just below normal today, back towards normal tomorrow, and above normal Friday, February 6th through Wednesday, February 11th, with below normal lows into Saturday morning, February 7th. Summary of Impacts Hydrologic Impacts Streamflows remain below normal into early February. Texas water share values have dropped just below 35% at Amistad and risen above 20% at Falcon Lake. Agricultural Impacts Please see the latest Crop and Weather Report from Texas A&M AgriLife. Soil moistures are well below normal across all of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, especially across the brush country, while crop moistures are near normal. Fire Hazard Impacts Above normal wildland fire activity is expected across all of Deep South Texas through March, with near normal wildland fire activity returning April through May. Burn bans remain in effect for all of Deep South Texas except Kenedy and Cameron counties. Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Streamflows over the past 7 days have remained below normal due to a lack of beneficial rainfall across South and Deep South Texas. Most of the streamflow across Deep South Texas is between the 10th and 24th percentile for this time of year (orange shading on the map). Texas water share values have slipped below 35% at Amistad and have risen just above 20% at Falcon Lake. Reservoir: Pool Elevation* (ft) | Current Elevation* (ft) | Percent Full* Amistad: 1117.00 | 1052.37 | 33.9% Falcon Lake: 301.20 | 256.69 | 20.2% Percent Full*: 1 Month Ago | 3 Months Ago | 1 Year Ago Amistad: 35.5% | 36.0% | 26.3% Falcon Lake: 17.9% | 15.2% | 15.2% * = Current Texas Water Share Agricultural Impacts Soil moistures are well below normal across all of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, especially across the brush country. Crop moisture indices are near normal across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Fire Hazard Impacts Keetch-Byram Drought Index values generally range from 500-800 across Deep South Texas, with 200-400 in northwestern Zapata, southeastern Kenedy, southeastern Willacy, and northeastern Cameron counties. Above normal wildland fire potential is expected across all of Deep South Texas through March 2026, before returning to normal in April and May 2026. Burn bans are in effect for all of Deep South Texas except Kenedy and Cameron counties. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Generally dry weather is expected across Deep South Texas into next week, with a very low (less than 10%) chance of rainfall today through next Wednesday, February 11th. A trace of rainfall is possible across the Rio Grande Valley, mainly along the coast and offshore, early this morning, with the arrival of a weak cold front. Overall, there is low to medium (33-40%) probability of below normal rainfall through Friday, February 13th across the lower to mid Rio Grande Valley and an equal chance of above normal or below normal rainfall for the remainder of Deep South Texas. Long-Range Outlooks Probabilities (33-40%) are leaning toward above normal temperatures across Deep South Texas through the month of February. Probabilities (33-40%) are leaning toward above normal rainfall across Deep South Texas through the month of February. Through April 2026, chances are leaning towards above normal temperatures and leaning towards below normal rainfall across Deep South Texas. Drought Outlook Drought is expected to persist across most of Deep South Texas through April, 2026 Drought is expected to develop across portions of eastern Hidalgo, southern Willacy, and northern Cameron counties through April, 2026.