Drought Information Statement for Deep South Texas Valid February 20, 2026 Issued By: NWS Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley, TX Contact Information: sr-bro.webmaster@noaa.gov This product will be updated around March 6, 2026, or sooner if drought conditions change significantly Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements Please visit https://www.weather.gov/bro/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates for regional drought status updates ***Exceptional Drought Conditions Have Developed Across Jim Hogg and Brooks Counties*** ***Severe to Extreme Drought Conditions Continue Expanding Across the Rio Grande Valley*** Drought Intensity and Extent Exceptional Drought (D4) conditions are being observed across nearly 8% of Deep South Texas, including central portions of Jim Hogg and Brooks counties. Extreme Drought (D3) conditions are being observed across over 52% of Deep South Texas, including all of Starr, most of Zapata, Jim Hogg, Brooks, western Hidalgo, and northwestern Kenedy counties. Severe Drought (D2) conditions are being observed across over 28% of Deep South Texas, including northwestern Zapata, eastern Hidalgo, northwestern Willacy, and most of Kenedy and Cameron counties. Moderate Drought (D1) conditions are being observed across over 8% of Deep South Texas, including most of Willacy, eastern Hidalgo, and northern Cameron counties. Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions are being observed across over 2% of Deep South Texas, including southeastern Willacy and northeastern Cameron counties. Recent Change in Drought Intensity In the past 4 weeks, there has been no change to drought conditions across most of Zapata, Jim Hogg, Brooks, and Starr counties, as well as portions of northwestern Kenedy, southeastern Willacy, and northeastern Cameron counties. In the past 4 weeks, there has been a 1 class degradation across northwestern Zapata, central Jim Hogg and Brooks counties, as well as most of Hidalgo, Kenedy, Willacy, and Cameron counties. In the past 4 weeks, there has been a 2 class degradation across portions of eastern Hidalgo, southeastern Kenedy, northwestern and central Willacy, and western Cameron counties. Precipitation Over the past 30 days, Zapata, Jim Hogg, Brooks, Starr, and most of Hidalgo, Kenedy, Willacy, and Cameron counties have received between 0-25% of normal rainfall, with central Willacy and portions of Hidalgo, Kenedy, and Cameron counties receiving between 10-75% of normal rainfall. Over the past 90 days, most of Deep South Texas has received between 25-75% of normal rainfall, with portions of northern Zapata, eastern Hidalgo, southern Willacy, and northern Cameron receiving between 75-200% of normal rainfall. Temperature Average Maximum Temperatures over the past 30 days across Deep South Texas have still ranged above normal, 75 degrees and above. Average Minimum Temperatures over the past 30 days across Deep South Texas have ranged generally near to slightly below normal between 40-60 degrees. Overall, temperatures remain well above normal through Friday, February 27, with a brief round of near normal highs Sunday and Monday and below normal lows Monday morning. Summary of Impacts Hydrologic Impacts Streamflows remain below normal into late February. Texas water share values have remained below 35% at Amistad and around 20% at Falcon Lake. Agricultural Impacts Please see the latest Crop and Weather Report from Texas A&M AgriLife. Soil moistures are well below normal across all of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, especially across the brush country, with slightly below normal crop moistures. Fire Hazard Impacts Above normal wildland fire activity is expected across all of Deep South Texas through March, with near normal wildland fire activity returning April through May. Burn bans remain in effect for all of Deep South Texas except Kenedy and Cameron counties. Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Streamflows over the past 7 days have remained below normal due to a lack of beneficial rainfall across South and Deep South Texas. Most of the streamflow across Deep South Texas is between the 10th and 24th percentile for this time of year (orange shading on the map). Texas water share values have remained below 35% at Amistad and around 20% at Falcon Lake. Reservoir: Pool Elevation* (ft) | Current Elevation* (ft) | Percent Full* Amistad: 1117.00 | 1051.69 | 33.2% Falcon Lake: 301.20 | 256.92 | 20.6% Percent Full*: 1 Month Ago | 3 Months Ago | 1 Year Ago Amistad: 34.7% | 34.7% | 26.2% Falcon Lake: 19.2% | 15.1% | 15.9% * = Current Texas Water Share Agricultural Impacts Soil moistures are well below normal across all of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, especially across the brush country. Crop moisture indices are slightly below normal across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Fire Hazard Impacts Keetch-Byram Drought Index values generally range from 600-800 across Deep South Texas, with 300-500 in northwestern Zapata, southeastern Kenedy, southeastern Willacy, and northern Cameron counties. Above normal wildland fire potential is expected across all of Deep South Texas through March 2026, before returning to normal in April and May 2026. Burn bans are in effect for all of Deep South Texas except Kenedy and Cameron counties. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Generally dry weather is expected across Deep South Texas through next week, with most model guidance remaining fairly dry into early March. There is a very low 5-15% chance of a shower or sprinkle along the frontal passage Saturday, with a trace to one tenth of an inch of rainfall, mainly along the coast. Overall, there is low to medium (33-50%) probability of below normal rainfall through Sunday, March 1st across most of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Long-Range Outlooks There is a medium to likely (50-60%) chance of above normal temperatures through March. There is an equal chance of above or below normal rainfall across Deep South Texas through March. Through May 2026, there is a medium (40-50%) chance of above normal temperatures and an equal chance of above normal or below normal rainfall across Deep South Texas. Drought Outlook Drought is expected to persist across most of Deep South Texas through May, 2026