Drought Information Statement for Deep South Texas Valid February 27, 2026 Issued By: NWS Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley, TX Contact Information: sr-bro.webmaster@noaa.gov This product will be updated around March 13, 2026, or sooner if drought conditions change significantly Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements Please visit https://www.weather.gov/bro/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates for regional drought status updates ***Exceptional Drought Conditions Continue Across Jim Hogg and Brooks Counties*** ***Severe to Extreme Drought Conditions Continue Expanding Across the Rio Grande Valley*** Drought Intensity and Extent Exceptional Drought (D4) conditions are being observed across nearly 8% of Deep South Texas, including central portions of Jim Hogg and Brooks counties. Extreme Drought (D3) conditions are being observed across over 58% of Deep South Texas, including all of Starr, most of Zapata, Jim Hogg, Brooks, Hidalgo, and western Kenedy counties. Severe Drought (D2) conditions are being observed across over 25% of Deep South Texas, including northwestern Zapata, southeastern Hidalgo, western Willacy, most of Kenedy, and most of Cameron counties. Moderate Drought (D1) conditions are being observed across the remaining nearly 9% of Deep South Texas, including most of Willacy and northern Cameron counties. Recent Change in Drought Intensity In the past 4 weeks, there has been no change to drought conditions across most of Zapata, Jim Hogg, Brooks, and Starr counties, as well as portions of northwestern Kenedy and northern Cameron counties. In the past 4 weeks, there has been a 1 class degradation across northwestern Zapata, central Jim Hogg and Brooks counties, as well as most of Hidalgo, Kenedy, Willacy, and Cameron counties. In the past 4 weeks, there has been a 2 class degradation across portions of eastern Hidalgo, southeastern Kenedy, northwestern and southeastern Willacy, and northwestern Cameron counties. Precipitation Over the past 30 days, majority of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley has received between 0-10% of normal. Over the past 90 days, most of Deep South Texas has received between 10-50% of normal rainfall, with portions of southeastern Willacy receiving between 50-90% of normal rainfall. Temperature Average Maximum Temperatures over the past 30 days across Deep South Texas have still ranged above to well-above normal, at 75-80 degrees and above. Average Minimum Temperatures over the past 30 days across Deep South Texas have ranged generally near to slightly below normal, between 40-60 degrees. Overall, temperatures remain well above normal through Friday, March 6 with lows in the 60s and highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s. Summary of Impacts Hydrologic Impacts Streamflows remain below normal heading into March. Texas water share values have remained below 35% at Amistad and around 20% at Falcon Lake. Agricultural Impacts Please see the latest Crop and Weather Report from Texas A&M AgriLife. Soil moistures are well below normal across all of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, especially across the brush country, with below normal crop moistures. Fire Hazard Impacts Above normal wildland fire activity is expected across all of Deep South Texas through March, with near normal wildland fire activity returning April through May. Burn bans remain in effect for all of Deep South Texas except Kenedy and Cameron counties. Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Streamflows across South and Deep South Texas remain below to well below normal due to a lack of beneficial rainfall. Texas water share values have remained below 35% at Amistad. Texas water share values have remained around 20% at Falcon Lake. Reservoir: Pool Elevation* (ft) | Current Elevation* (ft) | Percent Full* Amistad: 1117.00 | 1051.38 | 32.9% Falcon Lake: 301.20 | 256.88 | 20.6% Percent Full*: 1 Month Ago | 3 Months Ago | 1 Year Ago Amistad: 34.3% | 35.7% | 26.2% Falcon Lake: 19.7% | 15.4% | 15.8% * = Current Texas Water Share Agricultural Impacts Soil moistures are well below normal across all of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, especially across the brush country. Crop moisture indices are below normal across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Fire Hazard Impacts Keetch-Byram Drought Index values generally range from 600-800 across Deep South Texas, with 400-600 in northwestern Zapata, southeastern Willacy, and northeastern Cameron counties. Above normal wildland fire potential is expected across all of Deep South Texas through March 2026, before returning to normal in April and May 2026. Burn bans are in effect for all of Deep South Texas except Kenedy and Cameron counties. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Generally dry weather is expected across Deep South Texas through next week. A passing disturbance aloft brings a very low 5-15% chance of a passing shower along the coast on Wednesday with a trace of rainfall, if any, mainly along the coast. Overall, there is low to medium (40-60%) probability of above normal rainfall through Sunday, March 8th across most of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Long-Range Outlooks There is a medium to likely (50-60%) chance of above normal temperatures through March. There is an equal chance of above or below normal rainfall across Deep South Texas through March. Through May 2026, there is a medium (40-50%) chance of above normal temperatures and an equal chance of above normal or below normal rainfall across Deep South Texas. Drought Outlook Drought is expected to persist across most of Deep South Texas through May, 2026