Drought Information Statement for Deep South Texas Valid March 9, 2026 Issued By: NWS Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley, TX Contact Information: sr-bro.webmaster@noaa.gov This product will be updated around March 20, 2026, or sooner if drought conditions change significantly Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements Please visit https://www.weather.gov/bro/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates for regional drought status updates ***Exceptional Drought Conditions Expand Across the Northern Ranchlands*** ***Severe to Extreme Drought Conditions Continue Expanding Across the Rio Grande Valley*** Drought Intensity and Extent Exceptional Drought (D4) conditions are being observed across over 25% of Deep South Texas, including western Zapata, northern Starr, most of Brooks, and all of Jim Hogg counties. Extreme Drought (D3) conditions are being observed across over 45% of Deep South Texas, including western Kenedy, western Willacy, the remainder of Brooks and Starr, and most of Zapata and Hidalgo counties. Severe Drought (D2) conditions are being observed across over 25% of Deep South Texas, including northwestern Zapata, southeastern Hidalgo, and most of Kenedy, Willacy, and Cameron counties. Moderate Drought (D1) conditions are being observed across the remaining nearly 3% of Deep South Texas, including southeastern Willacy and northeastern Cameron counties. Recent Change in Drought Intensity In the past 4 weeks, there has been no change to drought conditions across central to southern Zapata, eastern Brooks, most of Starr, and portions of northern Kenedy and Cameron counties. In the past 4 weeks, there has been a 1 class degradation across Jim Hogg, northern and eastern Starr, northwestern Willacy, as well as most of Zapata, Brooks, Hidalgo, Kenedy, and Cameron counties. In the past 4 weeks, there has been a 2 class degradation across portions of eastern Hidalgo, southern Kenedy, northwestern Cameron, and most of Willacy counties. In the past 4 weeks, there has been a 3 class degradation across portions eastern Hidalgo and eastern Willacy counties. Precipitation Over the past 30 days, majority of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley has received between 0-10% of normal. Over the past 90 days, most of Deep South Texas has received between 10-50% of normal rainfall, with portions of southeastern Willacy receiving between 50-90% of normal rainfall. Temperature Average Maximum Temperatures over the past 30 days across Deep South Texas have still ranged well-above normal, at 80-90 degrees. Average Minimum Temperatures over the past 30 days across Deep South Texas have ranged generally near to slightly above normal, between 55-65 degrees. Overall, a rollercoaster of temperatures are expected from above normal today to near normal Thursday, below normal Friday morning, and above normal temperatures through Monday, March 16th. Summary of Impacts Hydrologic Impacts Streamflows remain below normal into early March. Texas water share values have dropped to near 30% at Amistad and increased to 21% at Falcon Lake. Agricultural Impacts Please see the latest Crop and Weather Report from Texas A&M AgriLife. Soil moistures and crop moistures are well below normal across all of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, especially across the brush country. Fire Hazard Impacts Above normal wildland fire activity is expected across all of Deep South Texas through March, with near normal wildland fire activity returning April through June. Burn bans remain in effect for all of Deep South Texas except Kenedy and Cameron counties. Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Streamflows over the past 7 days have remained below normal due to a lack of beneficial rainfall across South and Deep South Texas. Most of the streamflow across Deep South Texas is between the 10th and 24th percentile for this time of year (orange shading on the map). Texas water share values have remained below 35% at Amistad and around 20% at Falcon Lake. Reservoir: Pool Elevation* (ft) | Current Elevation* (ft) | Percent Full* Amistad: 1117.00 | 1051.69 | 33.2% Falcon Lake: 301.20 | 256.92 | 20.6% Percent Full*: 1 Month Ago | 3 Months Ago | 1 Year Ago Amistad: 34.7% | 34.7% | 26.2% Falcon Lake: 19.2% | 15.1% | 15.9% * = Current Texas Water Share Agricultural Impacts Soil moistures are well below normal across all of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, especially across the brush country. Crop moisture indices are well-below normal across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Fire Hazard Impacts Keetch-Byram Drought Index values generally range from 600-800 across Deep South Texas, with 300-600 in northwestern Zapata, and 400-600 across southeastern Willacy and southern Starr counties. Above normal wildland fire potential is expected across all of Deep South Texas through March 2026, before returning to normal in April through June 2026. Burn bans are in effect for all of Deep South Texas except Kenedy and Cameron counties. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Generally dry weather is expected across Deep South Texas through the weekend with less than one tenth of an inch of rainfall expected. A cold front arrives Wednesday with the next chance of rain, currently a 10-20% chance, across mainly the northern ranchlands. Overall, probabilities are leaning toward below normal rainfall across the northern ranchlands and an equal chance of above or below normal rainfall across the Rio Grande Valley through Wednesday, March 18th. Long-Range Outlooks There is a medium to likely (50-60%) chance of above normal temperatures through March. There is an equal chance of above or below normal rainfall across Deep South Texas through March. Through May 2026, there is a medium (40-50%) chance of above normal temperatures and an equal chance of above normal or below normal rainfall across Deep South Texas. Drought Outlook Drought is expected to persist across all of Deep South Texas through May, 2026