Drought Information Statement for Deep South Texas Valid March 19, 2026 Issued By: NWS Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley, TX Contact Information: sr-bro.webmaster@noaa.gov This product will be updated around April 3, 2026, or sooner if drought conditions change significantly Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements Please visit https://www.weather.gov/bro/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates for regional drought status updates ***Exceptional Drought Conditions Continue Expanding Across the Northern Ranchlands*** ***Severe to Extreme Drought Conditions Continue Expanding Across the Rio Grande Valley*** Drought Intensity and Extent Exceptional Drought (D4) conditions are being observed across nearly 37% of Deep South Texas, including all of Jim Hogg, most of Zapata and Brooks counties, and northern Starr and Hidalgo counties. Extreme Drought (D3) conditions are being observed across 42% of Deep South Texas, including central to southern Zapata, most of Starr and Kenedy, the remainder of Hidalgo, western Willacy, and western to southern Cameron counties. Severe Drought (D2) conditions are being observed across over 21% of Deep South Texas, including northwestern Zapata, southern Starr, and eastern Kenedy, Willacy, and Cameron counties. Recent Change in Drought Intensity In the past 4 weeks, there has been a 1 class improvement across portions of northwestern Zapata and southern Starr counties. In the past 4 weeks, there has been no change to drought conditions across central to southern Zapata, central Jim Hogg and Brooks, northwestern and eastern Kenedy, central Starr, western Hidalgo, and eastern Cameron counties. In the past 4 weeks, there has been a 1 class degradation across northern Starr, and most of Zapata, Jim Hogg, Brooks, Kenedy, Willacy, and Cameron counties In the past 4 weeks, there has been a 2 class degradation across portions of eastern Hidalgo, southwestern and southeastern Willacy, and northwestern and northeastern Cameron counties. Precipitation Over the past 30 days, majority of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley has received between 0-10% of normal, with pockets of northwestern Zapata receiving between 25-150% of normal and southern Starr receiving between 125-300%. Over the past 90 days, most of Deep South Texas has received between 5-25% of normal rainfall, with northwestern Zapata receiving between 10-75% of normal rainfall and southern Starr receiving between 50-150% of normal rainfall. Temperature Average Maximum Temperatures over the past 30 days across Deep South Texas have still ranged above normal, at 80-90 degrees. Average Minimum Temperatures over the past 30 days across Deep South Texas have ranged generally near to slightly above normal, between 50-70 degrees. Overall, well-above normal temperatures are expected across Deep South Texas through Wednesday, March 25th, with lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s and highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Summary of Impacts Hydrologic Impacts Streamflows remain below normal into late March. Texas water share values have nudged above 32% at Amistad and remained near 21% at Falcon Lake. Agricultural Impacts Please see the latest Crop and Weather Report from Texas A&M AgriLife. Soil moistures and crop moistures are well below normal across all of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, with near normal crop moistures across southern Zapata and Starr counties. Fire Hazard Impacts Above normal wildland fire activity is expected across all of Deep South Texas through March, with near normal wildland fire activity returning April through June. Burn bans remain in effect for all of Deep South Texas except Kenedy County. Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Streamflows over the past 7 days have remained below normal due to a lack of beneficial rainfall across South and Deep South Texas. Most of the streamflow across Deep South Texas is between the 10th and 24th percentile for this time of year (orange shading on the map). Texas water share values have remained below 35% at Amistad and around 20% at Falcon Lake. Reservoir: Pool Elevation* (ft) | Current Elevation* (ft) | Percent Full* Amistad: 1117.00 | 1048.89 | 32.2% Falcon Lake: 301.20 | 257.59 | 20.9% Percent Full*: 1 Month Ago | 3 Months Ago | 1 Year Ago Amistad: 33.3% | 34.9% | 26.0% Falcon Lake: 20.6% | 16.2% | 15.2% * = Current Texas Water Share Agricultural Impacts Soil moistures are well below normal across all of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Crop moisture indices are well-below normal across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, with near normal crop moisture across portions of Zapata and Starr counties. Fire Hazard Impacts Keetch-Byram Drought Index values generally range from 600-800 across Deep South Texas, with 300-600 in northwestern Zapata and southern Starr counties, and 400-600 across southeastern Willacy County. Above normal wildland fire potential is expected across all of Deep South Texas through March 2026, before returning to normal in April through June 2026. Burn bans are in effect for all of Deep South Texas, except for Kenedy County. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Dry weather is expected across all of Texas into mid next week. Overall, through Saturday, March 28th: Probabilities are leaning toward above normal rainfall just along the Rio Grande at 33-40%. There is an equal chance of above or below normal rainfall across the remainder of the Rio Grande Valley and southern ranchlands. Probabilities are leaning toward below normal rainfall across the northern ranchlands at 33-40% Long-Range Outlooks There is a medium to likely (50-60%) chance of above normal temperatures through March. There is an equal chance of above or below normal rainfall across Deep South Texas through March. Through May 2026, there is a medium (40-50%) chance of above normal temperatures and an equal chance of above normal or below normal rainfall across Deep South Texas. Drought Outlook Drought is expected to persist across all of Deep South Texas through May, 2026