Drought Information Statement for Deep South Texas Valid April 21, 2025 Issued By: NWS Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley, TX Contact Information: sr-bro.webmaster@noaa.gov This product will be updated around May 2, 2025, or sooner if drought conditions change significantly Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements Please visit https://www.weather.gov/bro/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates for regional drought status updates ...Severe Drought Conditions Remain Across the Brush Country... ...Historical Rainfall Improves Drought Across Most of the Rio Grande Valley... Drought Intensity and Extent Severe Drought (D2) conditions are being observed across over 22% of Deep South Texas, including Zapata, most of Jim Hogg, and western Starr counties. Moderate Drought (D1) conditions are being observed across over 24% of Deep South Texas, including most of Starr, southwestern Hidalgo, southeastern Jim Hogg, northern Brooks, and northern Kenedy counties. Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions continue across over 45% of Deep South Texas, including the remainder of Jim Hogg, Starr, Brooks, Kenedy, Hidalgo, most of Willacy, and western Cameron counties. Recent Change in Drought Intensity Drought conditions have generally improved across most of Deep South Texas. In the past 4 weeks, there has been a 2 class improvement across most of Starr, Hidalgo, southern Jim Hogg, southern Brooks, western Kenedy, and western Willacy counties. In the past 4 weeks, there has been a 1 class improvement across most of the remainder of Deep South Texas, including all of Zapata, most of Cameron, Jim Hogg, Willacy, and Kenedy counties, as well as northern Brooks and portions of Starr and Hidalgo counties. Precipitation Historical rainfall was observed at the end of March. All of Deep South Texas has received 100% or more of normal rainfall over the past 30 days, with most of Deep South Texas, including the Rio Grande Valley receiving at least 300% of normal rainfall. Over the past 90 days, all of Deep South Texas has received 100% or more of normal rainfall, with most of the Rio Grande Valley receiving between 150-600% of normal rainfall, especially from southeastern Hidalgo through northern Cameron counties. Temperature Average Maximum Temperatures over the past 30 days across Deep South Texas have ranged generally above normal between 85-90+ degrees. Average Minimum Temperatures over the past 30 days across Deep South Texas have ranged generally near to slightly above normal between 60-65+ degrees. Overall, near to slightly above normal highs and lows are expected through Sunday, April 27th, 2025. Summary of Impacts Hydrologic Impacts Streamflows have fallen much below normal due to a very dry April. Texas water share levels at both Amistad and Falcon Lake have missed any beneficial rainfall. Agricultural Impacts Please see the latest Crop and Weather Report from Texas A&M AgriLife. Soil moistures range from near normal towards the brush country to well-above normal across the Rio Grande Valley, with crop moisture indices generally near to well-above normal across Deep South Texas. Fire Hazard Impacts Normal wildland fire activity is expected the remainder of April through July 2025 for all of Deep South Texas Burn bans are now in effect for all of Deep South Texas except Kenedy County. Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Streamflows over the past 7 days have fallen much below normal due to a very dry April. Most of the streamflow across Deep South Texas is now less than the 10th percentile for this time of year (dark red or maroon shading on the map). Unfortunately, most of the rainfall in late March fell southeast of the reservoirs, where it is desperately needed. Texas water share values have dropped back below 25% at Amistad and now only just above 16% at Falcon Lake. Reservoir Data Pool Elevation* (ft) | Current Elevation* (ft) | Percent Full* Amistad: 1117.00 | 1048.95 | 24.5% Falcon Lake: 301.20 | 256.63 | 16.1% Percent Full*: 1 Month Ago | 3 Months Ago | 1 Year Ago Amistad: 25.9% | 26.4% | 28.0% Falcon Lake: 15.0% | 15.1% | 12.6% * = Current Texas Water Share Agricultural Impacts Soil moistures range from near normal towards the brush country to well-above normal across the Rio Grande Valley. Crop moisture indices are generally near to well-above normal across Deep South Texas. Fire Hazard Impacts Keetch-Byram Drought Index values generally range between 300-500 across the brush country, with 0-300 across the remainder of Deep South Texas, including the Rio Grande Valley. Normal wildland fire potential is expected the remainder of April through July 2025 for Deep South Texas. Burn bans are in effect for all of Deep South Texas except Kenedy County. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Thunderstorms along the coast have brought 2 to 6 inches of rainfall across eastern Willacy and Cameron counties into this afternoon. Additional rainfall of 0.10 of an inch to 1 inch is expected over the next day or two, with rain chances dropping off through the remainder of the week. Overall, rain chances through Wednesday, April 30th, 2025 are leaning above normal across Deep South Texas. Long-Range Outlooks There is a 40-50% probability of above normal temperatures across Deep South Texas through the month of May. There is an equal chance of above or below normal rainfall across Deep South Texas through the month of May. Through July 2025, there is a likely chance of above normal temperatures and an equal chance of above or below normal rainfall across Deep South Texas. Drought Outlook Drought is expected to persist across portions of the northern ranchlands and brush country, including northern Kenedy, northern Brooks, most of Jim Hogg, all of Zapata, and most of Starr counties through July 2025. Drought is expected to improve and end across most of the Rio Grande Valley, especially across Hidalgo, Willacy, and Cameron counties through July 2025.