Drought Information Statement for Deep South Texas Valid May 13, 2026 Issued By: NWS Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley, TX Contact Information: sr-bro.webmaster@noaa.gov This product will be updated around May 22, 2026, or sooner if drought conditions change significantly Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements Please visit https://www.weather.gov/bro/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates for regional drought status updates ***Beneficial Rainfall Continues to Improve Drought Conditions Across Deep South Texas*** ***Moderate to Severe Drought Conditions Observed Across the Rio Grande Valley*** Drought Intensity and Extent Extreme Drought (D3) conditions are now being observed across just over 2% of Deep South Texas, including northeastern Zapata and northwestern Jim Hogg counties. Severe Drought (D2) conditions are now being observed across over 56% of Deep South Texas, including the remainder of Zapata, western Jim Hogg, northern Starr, southern Brooks, southwestern Kenedy, and most of Hidalgo, Willacy, and Cameron counties. Moderate Drought (D1) conditions are now being observed across over 41% of Deep South Texas, including the remaining portions of Starr, Jim Hogg, Brooks, Kenedy, Hidalgo, Willacy, and Cameron counties. Recent Change in Drought Intensity In the past 4 weeks, there has been a 2 class improvement across northern and eastern portions of Jim Hogg, northern Starr, most of Brooks and Kenedy, and coastal Willacy to coastal Cameron counties. In the past 4 weeks, there has been a 1 class improvement across most of the remainder of Deep South Texas, including most of Zapata, Jim Hogg, Starr, Hidalgo, western and southern Brooks, northern and southern Kenedy, western Willacy, and southern Cameron counties. In the past 4 weeks, there has been no change to drought conditions across northeastern Zapata, northwestern Jim Hogg, central to northeastern Starr, western Hidalgo, central Willacy, and central Cameron counties. Precipitation Over the past 30 days, areas along and west of US-281 have received between 75-150% of normal rainfall, with portions of Jim Hogg and Starr counties receiving 150-400% of normal rainfall. Areas east of US-281 have received between 50-125% of normal rainfall, with northeastern Kenedy and southeastern Cameron counties receiving between 100-150% of normal rainfall. Over the past 90 days, most of Deep South Texas has received between 75-110% of normal rainfall, with portions of Jim Hogg, Starr, Brooks, and Hidalgo receiving between 125-200% of normal rainfall. Temperature Average Maximum Temperatures over the past 30 days across Deep South Texas have ranged near to above normal, at 85-95 degrees. Average Minimum Temperatures over the past 30 days across Deep South Texas have ranged near to above normal, between 65-75 degrees. Overall, above normal temperatures are expected across Deep South Texas through Wednesday, May 20th, with below normal lows through Friday morning, May 15th. Summary of Impacts Hydrologic Impacts Streamflows across South and Deep South Texas have improved to near or slightly above normal due to multiple rounds of beneficial rainfall in April and early May. Texas water share values have diminished to 30.2% at Amistad and improved to 21.6% at Falcon Lake. Agricultural Impacts Please see the latest Crop and Weather Report from Texas A&M AgriLife. Soil moistures are well below normal across the brush country and slightly above normal across the Rio Grande Valley, with near normal crop moisture indices across Deep South Texas. Fire Hazard Impacts Near normal wildland fire potential is expected across all of Deep South Texas through August. Burn bans remain in effect for all of Deep South Texas except Kenedy County. Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Streamflows across South and Deep South Texas have improved to near or slightly above normal due to multiple rounds of beneficial rainfall in April and early May. Texas water share values have diminished to 30.2% at Amistad. Texas water share values have improved to 21.6% at Falcon Lake. Reservoir: Pool Elevation* (ft) | Current Elevation* (ft) | Percent Full* Amistad: 1117.00 | 1047.76 | 30.2% Falcon Lake: 301.20 | 258.60 | 21.6% Percent Full*: 1 Month Ago | 3 Months Ago | 1 Year Ago Amistad: 30.9% | 33.5% | 28.5% Falcon Lake: 21.6% | 20.6% | 15.5% * = Current Texas Water Share Agricultural Impacts Soil moistures are well below normal across the brush country and slightly above normal across the Rio Grande Valley. Crop moisture indices have improved to near normal across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Fire Hazard Impacts Keetch-Byram Drought Index values generally range from 400-600 across Deep South Texas, with 500-700 across Cameron County and 200-400 across Jim Hogg, Starr, and western Hidalgo counties. Near normal wildland fire potential is expected across all of Deep South Texas through August. Burn bans are in effect for all of Deep South Texas, except for Kenedy County. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Generally dry weather has returned to Deep South Texas and expected to prevail into the weekend. There is a low to medium (20-45%) chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday night through Wednesday, with Sierra Madre convection possible in the early to late evening hours and a frontal system working south by Wednesday. Early estimated precipitation of .10 of an inch to 0.50 of an inch expected through Wednesday, May 20th; however, any shower or strong thunderstorm would be capable of producing 1-2 inches of rainfall, with locally higher amounts where any activity persists. Overall, through Friday, May 22nd, there is a likely (50-60%) chance of above normal rainfall across Deep South Texas. Long-Range Outlooks There is a medium (33-40%) chance of above normal temperatures through May. There is medium (33-40%) chance of above normal rainfall across Deep South Texas through May. Through July, there is a medium (40-50%) chance of above normal temperatures and an equal chance of above or below normal rainfall across Deep South Texas. Drought Outlook for the remainder of May through July: Drought is expected to end across portions of the upper Rio Grande Valley and eastern portions of the northern ranchlands. Drought is expected to improve across the remainder of Deep South Texas, including the brush country and lower to mid Rio Grande Valley.