Drought Information Statement for Deep South Texas Valid May 22, 2025 Issued By: NWS Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley, TX Contact Information: sr-bro.webmaster@noaa.gov This product will be updated around June 6, 2025, or sooner if drought conditions change significantly Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements Please visit https://www.weather.gov/bro/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates for regional drought status updates ...Severe Drought Conditions Persist Across Northern Portions of Zapata and Jim Hogg Counties... ...Abnormally Dry Conditions Persist Across the Upper to Mid Rio Grande Valley... Drought Intensity and Extent Severe Drought (D2) conditions are still being observed across just over 2% of Deep South Texas, including portions of northwestern Zapata and northern Jim Hogg. Moderate Drought (D1) conditions are being observed across nearly 23% of Deep South Texas, including most of Zapata, Jim Hogg, and northwestern Brooks counties. Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions continue across over 55% of Deep South Texas, including the remainder of Zapata, Jim Hogg, Brooks, all of Starr, all of Hidalgo, most of Kenedy, and western Willacy counties. Recent Change in Drought Intensity In the past 4 weeks, there has been no change across mostly central portions of Deep South Texas, including northern Jim Hogg, most of Brooks, Kenedy, Hidalgo, and western Willacy counties. In the past 4 weeks, there has been a 1 class improvement across most of Zapata, Jim Hogg, Starr, southwestern and northeastern Brooks, southwestern Hidalgo, northern and southeastern Kenedy, west-central Willacy, and western Cameron counties. In the past 4 weeks, there has been a 2 class improvement across southern Zapata and northwestern Starr counties. Precipitation Over the past 30 days, the brush country and coastal portions of Deep South Texas have received between 100-300% of normal rainfall, with central portions of Deep South Texas generally receiving 50-150% of normal rainfall, with pockets of 25-50% of normal rainfall across portions of Jim Hogg, Brooks, Hidalgo, and Starr counties. Over the past 90 days, most of Deep South Texas has received between 125-400% of normal rainfall, especially the lower to mid Rio Grande Valley, with between 75-125% across portions of the northern ranchlands. Temperature Average Maximum Temperatures over the past 30 days across Deep South Texas have ranged generally near normal between 85-95 degrees. Average Minimum Temperatures over the past 30 days across Deep South Texas have ranged generally near normal between 70-75 degrees. Overall, near to slightly above normal highs and lows are expected through Wednesday, with slightly below normal highs and lows expected Thursday into Friday, May 30, 2025. Summary of Impacts Hydrologic Impacts Streamflows remain below normal into late May. Texas water share levels at both Amistad and Falcon Lake remain low. Agricultural Impacts Please see the latest Crop and Weather Report from Texas A&M AgriLife. Soil moistures range from near normal towards the brush country to well-above normal across the Rio Grande Valley, with crop moisture indices generally near to slightly below normal across all of Deep South Texas. Fire Hazard Impacts Normal wildland fire activity is expected the remainder of May through August 2025 for all of Deep South Texas Burn bans remain in effect for all of Deep South Texas except Kenedy County. Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Streamflows over the past 7 days have remained below normal. Most of the streamflow across Deep South Texas is between the 10th and 24th percentile for this time of year (orange shading on the map). Texas water share values have remained near 25% at Amistad and 15% at Falcon Lake. Reservoir: Pool Elevation* (ft) | Current Elevation* (ft) | Percent Full* Amistad: 1117.00 | 1048.62 | 28.4% Falcon Lake: 301.20 | 254.62 | 15.1% Percent Full*: 1 Month Ago | 3 Months Ago | 1 Year Ago Amistad: 25.6% | 26.2% | 27.8% Falcon Lake: 15.4% | 15.9% | 8.8% * = Current Texas Water Share Agricultural Impacts Soil moistures range from near normal towards the brush country to well-above normal across the Rio Grande Valley. Crop moisture indices are near to slightly below normal across all of Deep South Texas. Fire Hazard Impacts Keetch-Byram Drought Index values range from 300-500 across most of Zapata, Brooks, southern Kenedy, southern Starr, Hidalgo, western Willacy and western Cameron counties, with 0-300 across northern Starr, southern Jim Hogg, central Brooks, and most of Kenedy, Willacy, and Cameron counties. Normal wildland fire potential is expected the remainder of May through August 2025 for Deep South Texas. Burn bans are in effect for all of Deep South Texas except Kenedy County. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Rainfall of generally 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch is expected Monday night through Friday next week as cold front and a series of mid-level disturbances work through Deep South Texas. Isolated pockets of 1-2 inches are possible where any stronger showers or thunderstorms persist mid to late next week. Overall, rain chances through Saturday, May 31st, 2025 are likely above normal across Deep South Texas. Long-Range Outlooks There is a 50-60% probability of above normal temperatures across Deep South Texas through the month of June. There is an equal chance of above or below normal rainfall across Deep South Texas through the month of June. Through August 2025, there is a likely chance of above normal temperatures and an equal chance of above or below normal rainfall across Deep South Texas. Drought Outlook Drought is expected to improve across the brush country, including Zapata, Jim Hogg, and northwestern Starr counties through May 2025. Drought is expected to end across portions of the ranchlands and upper Rio Grande Valley, including northern Kenedy, most of Brooks, eastern Jim Hogg, and most of Starr counties through May 2025. Drought is expected to persist across portions of the brush country, including Zapata, Jim Hogg, and northwestern Brooks counties through August 2025.