Drought Information Statement for Deep South Texas Valid August 7, 2026 Issued By: NWS Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley, TX Contact Information: sr-bro.webmaster@noaa.gov This product will be updated around August 28th, 2026 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements Please visit https://www.weather.gov/bro/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates for regional drought status updates ****Severe Drought Conditions Have Developed Across Portions of the Lower Rio Grande Valley**** ****Moderate Drought Conditions Are Being Observed Across Most of the Rio Grande Valley and Portions of the Northern Ranchlands**** Drought Intensity and Extent Severe Drought (D2) conditions now being observed across nearly 4% of Deep South Texas, including southeastern Hidalgo and southern to southwestern Cameron counties. Moderate Drought (D1) conditions are being observed across over 41% of Deep South Texas, including northern Zapata, most of Jim Hogg, western Brooks, northeastern Starr, most of Hidalgo, southwestern Willacy, and most of Cameron counties. Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions are being observed across nearly 39% of Deep South Texas, including most of Brooks, northwestern to southeastern Willacy, southwestern and northeastern Kenedy, and the remainder of Zapata, Jim Hogg, Starr, Hidalgo, Cameron counties. Recent Change in Drought Intensity In the past 4 weeks, there has been a 3 class degradation across southeastern Hidalgo and southern to southwestern Cameron counties. In the past 4 weeks, there has been a 2 class degradation across northern Zapata, most of Jim Hogg, western Brooks, northeastern Starr, most of Hidalgo, southwestern Willacy, and most of Cameron counties. In the past 4 weeks, there has been a 1 class degradation across most of Brooks, northwestern to southeastern Willacy, southwestern and northeastern Kenedy, and the remainder of Zapata, Jim Hogg, Starr, Hidalgo, Cameron counties. Precipitation Over the past 30 days, most of Deep South Texas has received between 25-75% of normal rainfall, with portions of Hidalgo and Cameron counties receiving between 0.01 to 25%, and portions of central Zapata, southwestern Brooks, eastern Starr, and western Hidalgo receiving between 90-200% of normal rainfall. Over the past 90 days, most of Deep South Texas has received between 125-200% of normal rainfall, with southern Cameron County receiving between 90-125% of normal rainfall. Temperature Average Maximum Temperatures over the past 30 days across Deep South Texas have ranged near to slightly above normal, at 90-105 degrees. Average Minimum Temperatures over the past 30 days across Deep South Texas have ranged generally near normal, between 75-80 degrees. Overall, temperatures are expected to be near normal across Deep South Texas through Friday, August 14th. Summary of Impacts Hydrologic Impacts Streamflows across South and Deep South Texas have continued to be near to much above normal due to beneficial rainfall into early August and drainage into South Texas from July rainfall. Texas water share values have improved to 38.5% at Amistad and 26.0% at Falcon Lake. Agricultural Impacts Please see the latest Crop and Weather Report from Texas A&M AgriLife. Soil moistures are currently being reported as near normal across Deep South Texas, with Crop moisture indices dropping to below and well-below normal across Deep South Texas, especially across the bulk of the Rio Grande Valley. Fire Hazard Impacts Above normal wildland fire potential is expected across all of Deep South Texas through the remainder of August, with near normal wildland fire potential September through November. Burn bans remain in effect for all of Deep South Texas except Kenedy County. Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Streamflows across South and Deep South Texas have continued to be near to much above normal due to beneficial rainfall into early August and drainage into South Texas from July rainfall. Texas water share values have improved to 38.5% at Amistad. Texas water share values have improved to 26.0% at Falcon Lake. Reservoir: Pool Elevation* (ft) | Current Elevation* (ft) | Percent Full* Amistad: 1117.00 | 1056.91 | 38.5% Falcon Lake: 301.20 | 264.51 | 26.0% Percent Full*: 1 Month Ago | 3 Months Ago | 1 Year Ago Amistad: 29.9% | 30.3% | 34.0% Falcon Lake: 24.8% | 21.4% | 15.9% * = Current Texas Water Share Agricultural Impacts Soil moistures are currently being reported as near normal across Deep South Texas. Crop moisture indices have dropped to below and well-below normal across Deep South Texas, especially across the bulk of the Rio Grande Valley. Fire Hazard Impacts Keetch-Byram Drought Index values generally range from 300-500 across Deep South Texas, with southern Cameron ranging between 500-700 and portions of Zapata, Starr, southwestern Brooks, and western Hidalgo ranging 200-400. Above normal wildland fire potential is expected across all of Deep South Texas through the remainder of August, with near normal wildland fire potential September through November. Burn bans are in effect for all of Deep South Texas, except for Kenedy County. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast There is a low to medium (15-35%) chance of showers and thunderstorms across most of Deep South Texas through Monday, mainly along the sea breeze, with the highest chances expected Sunday afternoon. Early estimated precipitation of 0.25 of an inch or less is expected along the coastal counties and typical sea breeze locations through Thursday, August 13th, with 0.10 of an inch or less expected further inland. Overall, through Sunday, August 16th, there is an equal chance of above or below normal rainfall across Deep South Texas. Long-Range Outlooks There is a medium (40-50%) chance of above normal temperatures across Deep South Texas through August. There is a medium (33-40%) chance of below normal rainfall across Deep South Texas through August. Through October, there is a medium to likely (40-60%) chance of above normal temperatures and medium (33-40%) chance of below normal rainfall across most of Deep South Texas. Drought Outlook Drought is expected to persist through October across western to central portions of Deep South Texas, including northern Zapata, most of Jim Hogg, western Brooks, eastern Starr, most of Hidalgo, and southern Cameron counties.