Drought Information Statement for Deep South Texas Valid November 7, 2025 Issued By: NWS Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley, TX Contact Information: sr-bro.webmaster@noaa.gov This product will be updated around November 21, 2025, or sooner if drought conditions change significantly Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements Please visit https://www.weather.gov/bro/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates for regional drought status updates ***Severe Drought Conditions Have Developed Across Portions of Brooks and Kenedy Counties*** ***Moderate Drought and Abnormally Dry Conditions Continue for Most of the Remainder of Deep South Texas*** Drought Intensity and Extent Severe Drought (D2) conditions are being observed across just over 1% of Deep South Texas, including portions of northeastern Brooks and northwestern Kenedy counties. Moderate Drought (D1) conditions are being observed across over 60% of Deep South Texas, including the remainder of Brooks, all of Jim Hogg, most of Zapata, most of Kenedy, most of Starr, northern Hidalgo, and western Willacy counties. Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions are being observed across over 33% of Deep South Texas, including the remainder of Zapata, Starr, and Hidalgo counties, as well as southeastern Kenedy, most of Willacy, and most of Cameron counties. Recent Change in Drought Intensity In the past 4 weeks, there has been no change across portions of northern and central Zapata, eastern Starr, and western Hidalgo counties. In the past 4 weeks, there has been a 1 class degradation across Jim Hogg and most of Zapata, Starr, Hidalgo, Brooks, Kenedy, Willacy, and Cameron counties. In the past 4 weeks, there has been a 2 class degradation across northeastern Brooks, northeastern Hidalgo, and western Willacy counties, as well as from southwestern to northeastern Kenedy County. Precipitation Over the past 30 days, most of Deep South Texas has received between 10-75% of normal rainfall; with extreme northwest Jim Hogg County receiving between 90-200%, southern Hidalgo and Cameron counties receiving between 90-110%, and portions of Zapata, Jim Hogg, Brooks, Kenedy, and Starr counties from near zero to 25% of normal rainfall. Over the past 90 days, most of Deep South Texas has received between 25-90% of normal rainfall, with portions of the northern ranchlands receiving between 10-75% and the mid to lower RGV receiving 75-110%. Temperature Average Maximum Temperatures over the past 30 days across Deep South Texas have ranged above normal between 85-95 degrees. Average Minimum Temperatures over the past 30 days across Deep South Texas have ranged generally slightly above normal between 60-70 degrees. Overall, above normal temperatures are expected Saturday and mid-late next week, through Friday, November 14th, with near normal temperatures on Sunday, and below normal highs and lows Monday and Tuesday. Summary of Impacts Hydrologic Impacts Streamflows remain below normal into early November. Texas water share values have approached 36% at Amistad and have once again fallen to 15% at Falcon Lake. Agricultural Impacts Please see the latest Crop and Weather Report from Texas A&M AgriLife. Soil and crop moistures are well below normal across all of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Fire Hazard Impacts Above normal wildland fire activity is expected November 2025 and February 2026 for all of Deep South Texas. Burn bans remain in effect for all of Deep South Texas except Kenedy County. Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Streamflows over the past 7 days have remained below normal due to a lack of rainfall. Most of the streamflow across Deep South Texas is between the 10th and 24th percentile for this time of year (orange shading on the map). Texas water share values have approached 36% at Amistad and have once again fallen to near historical lows, around 15%, at Falcon Lake. Reservoir: Pool Elevation* (ft) | Current Elevation* (ft) | Percent Full* Amistad: 1117.00 | 1057.60 | 36.0% Falcon Lake: 301.20 | 252.82 | 15.0% Percent Full*: 1 Month Ago | 3 Months Ago | 1 Year Ago Amistad: 35.8% | 34.0% | 26.7% Falcon Lake: 16.5% | 15.9% | 13.6% * = Current Texas Water Share Agricultural Impacts Soil moistures remain well below normal across all of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Crop moisture indices are well below normal across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Fire Hazard Impacts Keetch-Byram Drought Index values range from 300-500 across portions of northwest Zapata County and most of Kenedy, Hidalgo, Willacy, and Cameron counties, with KBDI values of 500-700 across the remainder of Deep South Texas. Above normal wildland fire potential is expected Nov 2025 and Feb 2026, with normal wildland fire potential Dec 2025 and Jan 2026 for Deep South Texas. Burn bans are in effect for all of Deep South Texas except Kenedy County. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Rainfall of generally 0.10 of an inch or less is expected through Friday, November 14th, with the best chance along the coast or just into the Rio Grande Valley, during the frontal passage on Sunday. Overall, rain chances through Monday, November 17th, 2025 are leaning towards below normal at 40-50% for most of Deep South Texas and likely below normal at 50-60% for portions of Zapata, Jim Hogg, and Starr counties. Long-Range Outlooks There is a 40-60% probability of above normal temperatures across Deep South Texas through the month of November. There is an equal chance of above or below normal rainfall across Deep South Texas through the month of November. Through January 2026, there is a likely chance of above normal temperatures and chances are leaning towards below normal rainfall across Deep South Texas. Drought Outlook Drought is expected to develop and persist across all of Deep South Texas from November 2025 through January 2026.