Drought Information Statement for Deep South Texas Valid November 15, 2025 Issued By: NWS Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley, TX Contact Information: sr-bro.webmaster@noaa.gov This product will be updated around November 28, 2025, or sooner if drought conditions change significantly Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements Please visit https://www.weather.gov/bro/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates for regional drought status updates ***Severe Drought Conditions Have Expanded Across Deep South Texas and into the upper Rio Grande Valley*** ***Moderate Drought and Abnormally Dry Conditions Expand Across the Remainder of the Rio Grande Valley*** Drought Intensity and Extent Severe Drought (D2) conditions are being observed across over 46% of Deep South Texas, including Jim Hogg, northwestern Hidalgo, northwestern Kenedy, and most of Zapata, Brooks, and Starr counties. Moderate Drought (D1) conditions are being observed across over 48% of Deep South Texas, including the remainder of Zapata, Brooks, Starr, Hidalgo, and most of Kenedy, Willacy, and Cameron counties. Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions are being observed across over 5% of Deep South Texas, including the remainder of Kenedy, Willacy, and Cameron counties. Recent Change in Drought Intensity In the past 4 weeks, there has been no change across portions of north-central Zapata County. In the past 4 weeks, there has been a 1 class degradation across portions of northwestern and central Zapata, southeastern Starr, southwestern and northern Hidalgo, coastal Willacy, coastal Cameron counties, as well as southwestern to northeastern and coastal Kenedy County. In the past 4 weeks, there has been a 2 class degradation across most of Deep South Texas, including Jim Hogg, and most of Zapata, Brooks, Kenedy, Starr, Hidalgo, Willacy, and Cameron counties. Precipitation Over the past 30 days, most of Deep South Texas has received between 5-50% of normal rainfall; with extreme northeastern Kenedy County receiving between 50-110%, Willacy, southern Brooks, most of Kenedy, Hidalgo and Cameron counties receiving between 5-50%, and Zapata, Starr, western Jim Hogg, northern Brooks, and southwestern Hidalgo receiving between 0-25%. Over the past 90 days, most of Deep South Texas has received between 25-90% of normal rainfall, with most of the northern ranchlands receiving between 10-75% and the RGV receiving 25-110%. Temperature Average Maximum Temperatures over the past 30 days across Deep South Texas have ranged above normal between 80-90 degrees. Average Minimum Temperatures over the past 30 days across Deep South Texas have ranged generally near to slightly above normal between 50-70 degrees. Overall, well above normal high and low temperatures are expected today through Friday, November 21st. Summary of Impacts Hydrologic Impacts Streamflows remain below normal into mid November. Texas water share values have remained near 36% at Amistad and have once again fallen below 15% at Falcon Lake. Agricultural Impacts Please see the latest Crop and Weather Report from Texas A&M AgriLife. Soil and crop moistures are below to well below normal across all of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, especially across the brush country. Fire Hazard Impacts Above normal wildland fire activity is expected November 2025 and February 2026 for all of Deep South Texas. Burn bans remain in effect for all of Deep South Texas except Kenedy County. Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Streamflows over the past 7 days have remained below normal due to a lack of rainfall. Most of the streamflow across Deep South Texas is between the 10th and 24th percentile for this time of year (orange shading on the map). Texas water share values have remained near 36% at Amistad and have once again fallen below 15% at Falcon Lake, near historic lows. Reservoir: Pool Elevation* (ft) | Current Elevation* (ft) | Percent Full* Amistad: 1117.00 | 1057.47 | 35.9% Falcon Lake: 301.20 | 252.50 | 14.6% Percent Full*: 1 Month Ago | 3 Months Ago | 1 Year Ago Amistad: 35.6% | 33.8% | 26.7% Falcon Lake: 16.6% | 15.4% | 13.4% * = Current Texas Water Share Agricultural Impacts Soil moistures remain below to well below normal across all of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, especially the brush country. Crop moisture indices are below to well below normal across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, especially across the brush country. Fire Hazard Impacts Keetch-Byram Drought Index values range from 300-600 across portions of northwest Zapata, northern Hidalgo, southwestern Hidalgo, and most of Kenedy, Willacy, and Cameron counties, with KBDI values of 500-800 across the remainder of Deep South Texas. Above normal wildland fire potential is expected Nov 2025 and Feb 2026, with normal wildland fire potential Dec 2025 and Jan 2026 for Deep South Texas. Burn bans are in effect for all of Deep South Texas except Kenedy County. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Rainfall of generally 0.25 of an inch or less is expected through Friday, November 21st, with the best chance across the northern ranchlands and lower to mid Rio Grande Valley Thursday into Friday with the approach of a frontal boundary. Overall, rain chances through Monday, November 24th, 2025 are leaning towards above normal at 40-50% for all of Deep South Texas. Long-Range Outlooks There is a 40-60% probability of above normal temperatures across Deep South Texas through the month of November. There is an equal chance of above or below normal rainfall across Deep South Texas through the month of November. Through January 2026, there is a likely chance of above normal temperatures and chances are leaning towards below normal rainfall across Deep South Texas. Drought Outlook Drought is expected to develop and persist across all of Deep South Texas from November 2025 through January 2026.