Drought Information Statement for Deep South Texas Valid November 21, 2025 Issued By: NWS Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley, TX Contact Information: sr-bro.webmaster@noaa.gov This product will be updated around December 8, 2025, or sooner if drought conditions change significantly Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements Please visit https://www.weather.gov/bro/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates for regional drought status updates ***Extreme Drought Conditions Have Developed Across Portions of Jim Hogg, Brooks, and Kenedy Counties*** ***Moderate to Severe Drought Conditions Expand Across the Remainder of Deep South Texas*** Drought Intensity and Extent Extreme Drought (D3) conditions are being observed across over 8% of Deep South Texas, including northeastern Jim Hogg, northern Brooks, and northwestern Kenedy counties. Severe Drought (D2) conditions are being observed across nearly 45% of Deep South Texas, including all of Zapata County, northern Kenedy County, northwestern Hidalgo, and most of Jim Hogg, Starr, and Brooks counties. Moderate Drought (D1) conditions are being observed across the remainder (nearly 47%) of Deep South Texas, including the remainder of Starr, Hidalgo, Brooks, and Kenedy counties, as well as all of Willacy and Cameron counties. Recent Change in Drought Intensity In the past 4 weeks, there has been a 1 class degradation across portions of central Zapata, southeastern Starr, eastern Brooks, most of Hidalgo, most of Kenedy, western Willacy, and western Cameron counties. In the past 4 weeks, there has been a 2 class degradation across most of Deep South Texas, including most of Zapata, Jim Hogg, Brooks, Starr, Willacy, and Cameron counties, as well as portions of northern and southeastern Kenedy County. In the past 4 weeks, there has been a 3 class degradation across northeastern Jim Hogg and northern Brooks counties. Precipitation Over the past 30 days, most of Deep South Texas has received between 0-50% of normal rainfall; with extreme northeastern Kenedy County receiving between 50-125%, Willacy, eastern Jim Hogg, southern Brooks, most of Kenedy, Hidalgo and Cameron counties receiving between 5-50%, and Zapata, Starr, western Jim Hogg, northern Brooks, and southwestern Hidalgo receiving between 0-25%. Over the past 90 days, most of Deep South Texas has received between 25-90% of normal rainfall, with most of the northern ranchlands receiving between 10-75% and the RGV receiving 25-100%. Temperature Average Maximum Temperatures over the past 30 days across Deep South Texas have ranged above normal between 80-90 degrees. Average Minimum Temperatures over the past 30 days across Deep South Texas have ranged generally near to slightly above normal between 50-70 degrees. Overall, well above normal high and low temperatures are expected today through Tuesday, November 25th, with below normal temperatures Wednesday, November 26th into Friday, November 28th. Summary of Impacts Streamflows remain below normal into late November. Texas water share values have once again dropped below 35% at Amistad and remain below 15% at Falcon Lake. Agricultural Impacts Please see the latest Crop and Weather Report from Texas A&M AgriLife. Soil and crop moistures are below to well below normal across all of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, especially across the brush country. Fire Hazard Impacts Above normal wildland fire activity is expected November 2025 and February 2026 for all of Deep South Texas. Burn bans remain in effect for all of Deep South Texas except Kenedy County. Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. TCEQ Known Municipality Restrictions. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Streamflows over the past 7 days have remained below normal due to a lack of rainfall. Most of the streamflow across Deep South Texas is between the 10th and 24th percentile for this time of year (orange shading on the map). Texas water share values have once again fallen below 35% at Amistad and remain below 15% at Falcon Lake, near historic lows. Additional water releases at Amistad are working south down the Rio Grande towards Falcon Lake. Reservoir: Pool Elevation* (ft) | Current Elevation* (ft) | Percent Full* Amistad: 1117.00 | 1056.38 | 34.8% Falcon Lake: 301.20 | 252.43 | 14.5% Percent Full*: 1 Month Ago| 3 Months Ago | 1 Year Ago Amistad: 35.9% | 33.7% | 26.6% Falcon Lake: 16.4% | 15.4% | 13.2% * = Current Texas Water Share Agricultural Impacts Soil moistures remain below to well below normal across all of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, especially the brush country. Crop moisture indices are well below normal across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Fire Hazard Impacts Keetch-Byram Drought Index values range from 400-700 across portions of northwest Zapata and most of Hidalgo, Kenedy, Willacy, and Cameron counties, with KBDI values of 500-800 across the remainder of Deep South Texas. Above normal wildland fire potential is expected Nov 2025 and Feb 2026, with normal wildland fire potential Dec 2025 and Jan 2026 for Deep South Texas. Burn bans are in effect for all of Deep South Texas except Kenedy County. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Much needed rainfall is expected across Deep South Texas through next Friday, November 28th, ranging from 0.10 of an inch across the brush country to 0.75 of an inch along the coast. The best chance of rain through the forecast period arrives on Saturday as a front stalls near to just north of the ranchlands, and Tuesday Night into Thursday as the front pushes south. Overall, rain chances through Sunday, November 30th, 2025 are leaning towards above normal at 40-50% for all of Deep South Texas. Long-Range Outlooks There is a 50-60% probability of above normal temperatures across Deep South Texas through the month of December. There is a 33-50% probability of below normal rainfall across Deep South Texas through the month of December. Through January 2026, there is a likely chance of above normal temperatures and chances are leaning towards below normal rainfall across Deep South Texas. Drought Outlook Drought is expected to develop and persist across all of Deep South Texas through the remainder of November 2025. Drought is expected to persist across all of Deep South Texas through February 2026.