Drought Information Statement for Deep South Texas Valid December 8, 2025 Issued By: NWS Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley, TX Contact Information: sr-bro.webmaster@noaa.gov This product will be updated around December 19, 2025, or sooner if drought conditions change significantly Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements Please visit https://www.weather.gov/bro/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates for regional drought status updates ***Extreme Drought Conditions Continue Across Portions of Jim Hogg, Brooks, and Kenedy Counties*** ***Moderate to Severe Drought Conditions Continue Across Most of Deep South Texas*** Drought Intensity and Extent Extreme Drought (D3) conditions are being observed across over 8% of Deep South Texas, including northeastern Jim Hogg, northern Brooks, and northwestern Kenedy counties. Severe Drought (D2) conditions are being observed across over 45% of Deep South Texas, including most of Zapata, Jim Hogg, Starr, Brooks, northern Kenedy, and extreme northern Hidalgo counties. Moderate Drought (D1) conditions are being observed across over 39% of Deep South Texas, including the remainder of Zapata, Starr, and Kenedy counties, as well as most of Hidalgo, Willacy, and Cameron counties. Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions are being observed across the remaining 6% of Deep South Texas, including the remainder of Hidalgo, Willacy, and Cameron counties in the Rio Grande Valley. Recent Change in Drought Intensity In the past 4 weeks, there has been generally no change to drought conditions across portions of northern Zapata, northeastern Brooks, northwestern Kenedy, northeastern Starr, northern and eastern Hidalgo, western and southern Willacy, and northern Cameron counties. In the past 4 weeks, there has been a 1 class degradation across most of Zapata, Starr, Jim Hogg, Brooks, Hidalgo, Kenedy, northern Willacy, and Cameron counties. In the past 4 weeks, there has been a 2 class degradation across northeastern Jim Hogg, northwestern Brooks, coastal Kenedy, northeastern Willacy, and coastal Cameron counties. Precipitation Over the past 30 days, most of Deep South Texas has received between 50-90% of normal rainfall, with pockets of 200-400% of normal rainfall across portions of northern Zapata, northeastern Starr, eastern Hidalgo, and southern Willacy, and areas of 5-25% of normal rainfall in central Kenedy, southern Zapata, southern Starr, and southeastern Cameron counties. Over the past 90 days, most of Deep South Texas has received between 25-90% of normal rainfall, with portions of northern Zapata and southeastern Willacy receiving between 75-125%. Temperature Average Maximum Temperatures over the past 30 days across Deep South Texas have ranged well-above normal between 80-85 degrees. Average Minimum Temperatures over the past 30 days across Deep South Texas have ranged generally near to slightly above normal between 50-70 degrees. Overall, both maximum and minimum temperatures are expected to warm back above normal from Wednesday through Sunday, December 14th. Summary of Impacts Hydrologic Impacts Streamflows remain below normal into early December. Texas water share values have persisted near 35% at Amistad and 15% at Falcon Lake. Agricultural Impacts Please see the latest Crop and Weather Report from Texas A&M AgriLife. Soil and crop moistures are below to well below normal across all of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, especially across the brush country. Fire Hazard Impacts Normal wildland fire activity is expected December 2025 and January 2026, with above normal wildland fire activity expected February and March 2026 for all of Deep South Texas. Burn bans remain in effect for all of Deep South Texas except Kenedy County. Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Streamflows over the past 7 days have remained below normal due to a lack of persistent rainfall. Most of the streamflow across Deep South Texas is between the 10th and 24th percentile for this time of year (orange shading on the map). Texas water share values have persisted near 35% at Amistad and 15% at Falcon Lake, near historic lows. Reservoir: Pool Elevation* (ft) | Current Elevation* (ft) | Percent Full* Amistad: 1117.00 | 1056.15 | 35.5% Falcon Lake: 301.20 | 254.04 | 15.8% Percent Full*: 1 Month Ago | 3 Months Ago | 1 Year Ago Amistad: 36.0% | 35.5% | 26.5% Falcon Lake: 15.0% | 15.6% | 12.7% * = Current Texas Water Share Agricultural Impacts Soil moistures remain below to well below normal across all of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, especially the brush country. Crop moisture indices are below to well-below normal across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Fire Hazard Impacts Keetch-Byram Drought Index values generally range from 400-600 across Deep South Texas, with 200-400 in northern Zapata, northeastern Starr, northwestern and eastern Hidalgo, coastal and southern Kenedy, southeastern Willacy, and northern Cameron counties. Normal wildland fire potential is expected Dec 2025 and Jan 2026, with above normal wildland fire potential Feb-Mar 2026 for Deep South Texas. Burn bans are in effect for all of Deep South Texas except Kenedy County. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast The chance of rain remains below 10% through this week, increasing to 25-45% Friday night into Sunday, December 14th, with estimated rainfall of 0.01 to 0.10 of an inch across most of Deep South Texas and 0.10 to 0.25 of an inch across the lower Rio Grande Valley towards the coast. The best chance of rain through the forecast period arrives on Saturday with a stalling front near to just north of the ranchlands. Overall, rain chances through Wednesday, December 17th, 2025 are leaning towards above normal at 33-40% for all of Deep South Texas. Long-Range Outlooks There is a 50-60% probability of above normal temperatures across Deep South Texas through the month of December. There is a 33-40% probability of above normal rainfall across Deep South Texas through the month of December. Through February 2026, chances are leaning towards above normal temperatures and leaning towards below normal rainfall across Deep South Texas. Drought Outlook From December 2025 through February 2026, drought is expected to...persist across Zapata, Jim Hogg, Starr, western Brooks, and western Hidalgo counties...improve across northeastern Brooks and northern Kenedy counties... and end across southeastern Brooks, southern Kenedy, eastern Hidalgo, Willacy, and Cameron counties