Drought Information Statement for Deep South Texas Valid December 20, 2025 Issued By: NWS Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley, TX Contact Information: sr-bro.webmaster@noaa.gov This product will be updated around January 6, 2026, or sooner if drought conditions change significantly Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements Please visit https://www.weather.gov/bro/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates for regional drought status updates ***Extreme Drought Conditions Continue Across Portions of Jim Hogg, Brooks, and Kenedy Counties*** ***Moderate to Severe Drought Conditions Continue Across Most of Deep South Texas*** Drought Intensity and Extent Extreme Drought (D3) conditions are being observed across over 8% of Deep South Texas, including northeastern Jim Hogg, northern Brooks, and northwestern Kenedy counties. Severe Drought (D2) conditions are being observed across nearly 45% of Deep South Texas, including most of Jim Hogg, Starr, Brooks, southern to eastern Zapata, northern Kenedy, and extreme northern Hidalgo counties. Moderate Drought (D1) conditions are being observed across over 40% of Deep South Texas, including the remainder of Starr and Kenedy counties, as well as most of Zapata, Hidalgo, Willacy, and Cameron counties. Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions are being observed across the remaining 6% of Deep South Texas, including the remainder of Hidalgo, Willacy, and Cameron counties in the Rio Grande Valley. Recent Change in Drought Intensity In the past 4 weeks, there has been a 1 class improvement to drought conditions across most of Zapata, northeastern Starr, eastern Hidalgo, southern Willacy, and northern Cameron counties. In the past 4 weeks, there has been no change to drought conditions across most of Deep South Texas. In the past 4 weeks, there has been a 1 class degradation across southeastern Brooks, northern Hidalgo, and central Kenedy counties. Precipitation Over the past 30 days, most of Jim Hogg, Brooks, Starr, western Kenedy, southern Zapata, western Hidalgo, and southeastern Cameron counties have received between 50-100% of normal rainfall, with northern Zapata, eastern Kenedy, northeastern Starr, most of Hidalgo, most of Cameron, and Willacy counties receiving between 100-400% of normal rainfall. Over the past 90 days, most of Deep South Texas has received between 25-90% of normal rainfall, with portions of northern Zapata and southeastern Willacy receiving between 90-150% of normal rainfall. Temperature Average Maximum Temperatures over the past 30 days across Deep South Texas have ranged near to above normal between 70-80 degrees. Average Minimum Temperatures over the past 30 days across Deep South Texas have ranged generally near to above normal between 50-60 degrees. Overall, both maximum and minimum temperatures are expected to be well-above normal through Saturday, December 27th. Summary of Impacts Hydrologic Impacts Streamflows remain below normal into late December. Texas water share values have persisted near 35% at Amistad and have risen above 16% at Falcon Lake. Agricultural Impacts Please see the latest Crop and Weather Report from Texas A&M AgriLife. Soil and crop moistures are below to well below normal across all of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, especially across the brush country. Fire Hazard Impacts Normal wildland fire activity is expected through January 2026, with above normal wildland fire activity expected February and March 2026 for all of Deep South Texas. Burn bans remain in effect for all of Deep South Texas except Kenedy County. Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Streamflows over the past 7 days have remained below normal due to a lack of persistent rainfall. Most of the streamflow across Deep South Texas is between the 10th and 24th percentile for this time of year (orange shading on the map). Texas water share values have persisted near 35% at Amistad have risen to 16% at Falcon Lake, still near historic lows. Reservoir: Pool Elevation* (ft) | Current Elevation* (ft) | Percent Full* Amistad: 1117.00 | 1055.20 | 34.6% Falcon Lake: 301.20 | 254.13 | 16.2% Percent Full*: 1 Month Ago | 3 Months Ago | 1 Year Ago Amistad: 34.7% | 35.7% | 26.5% Falcon Lake: 15.1% | 15.7% | 13.3% * = Current Texas Water Share Agricultural Impacts Soil moistures remain below to well below normal across all of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, especially the brush country. Crop moisture indices are below to well-below normal across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Fire Hazard Impacts Keetch-Byram Drought Index values generally range from 400-600 across Deep South Texas, with 200-400 in northern Zapata, northeastern Starr, northwestern and eastern Hidalgo, coastal and southern Kenedy, southeastern Willacy, and northern Cameron counties. Normal wildland fire potential is expected through Jan 2026, with above normal wildland fire potential Feb-Mar 2026 for Deep South Texas. Burn bans are in effect for all of Deep South Texas except Kenedy County. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast The chance of rain generally remains very low (less than 10%) on Sunday, December 21st and from Tuesday, December 23rd through Saturday, December 27th. There is a low (10-20%) chance of rain on Monday, December 22nd, mainly along the lower Texas coast with an increase in moisture and weak low pressure across the western Gulf. Any precipitation is expected to be light at generally a trace to one-tenth of an inch total through Saturday, December 27th. Overall, rain chances through Tuesday, December 30th, 2025 are leaning towards above normal at 40-50% for all of Deep South Texas. Long-Range Outlooks There is a 50-60% probability of above normal temperatures across Deep South Texas through the month of January. There is a 33-40% probability of below normal rainfall across Deep South Texas through the month of January. Through March 2026, chances are leaning towards above normal temperatures and leaning towards below normal rainfall across Deep South Texas. Drought Outlook Drought is expected to persist across most of Deep South Texas through March, 2026 Drought is expected to develop across portions of eastern Hidalgo, southern Willacy, and northern Cameron counties through March, 2026.