Drought Information Statement for Deep South Texas Valid December 25, 2025 Issued By: NWS Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley, TX Contact Information: sr-bro.webmaster@noaa.gov This product will be updated around January 9, 2026, or sooner if drought conditions change significantly Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements Please visit https://www.weather.gov/bro/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates for regional drought status updates ***Extreme Drought Conditions Now Observed Across Most of Jim Hogg, Brooks, Northwestern Kenedy, Southeastern Zapata, and Northern Starr counties*** ***Drought Conditions Improve Across the Mid to Lower Rio Grande Valley*** Drought Intensity and Extent Extreme Drought (D3) conditions are being observed across over 20% of Deep South Texas, including northwestern Kenedy, most of Brooks, most of Jim Hogg, extreme southeastern Zapata, and northern Starr counties. Severe Drought (D2) conditions are being observed across nearly 26% of Deep South Texas, including most of Zapata and Starr, the remainder of Jim Hogg and Brooks, northwestern Kenedy, and northern Hidalgo counties. Moderate Drought (D1) conditions are being observed across nearly 23% of Deep South Texas, including the remainder of Zapata and Starr, western and northern Hidalgo, and northeastern to southwestern Kenedy counties. Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions are being observed across over 24% of Deep South Texas, including most of Cameron, the remainder of Kenedy, central to eastern Hidalgo, and northern Willacy counties. Recent Change in Drought Intensity In the past 4 weeks, there has been a 2 class improvement to drought conditions across portions of eastern Hidalgo, southern Willacy, and northern Cameron counties. In the past 4 weeks, there has been a 1 class improvement to drought conditions across northwestern Zapata, eastern Starr, northeastern and southern Kenedy, eastern Hidalgo, northern Willacy, and most of Cameron counties. In the past 4 weeks, there has been no change to drought conditions across most of Zapata, JIm Hogg, Brooks, Kenedy, Starr, and western Hidalgo counties. In the past 4 weeks, there has been a 1 class degradation across southern Jim Hogg, central and southeastern Brooks, western Kenedy, northern Hidalgo, southeastern Zapata, and northern Starr counties. Precipitation Over the past 30 days, most of Jim Hogg, Brooks, Starr, western Kenedy, southern Zapata, western Hidalgo, and southeastern Cameron counties have received between 50-100% of normal rainfall, with northern Zapata, eastern Kenedy, northeastern Starr, most of Hidalgo, most of Cameron, and Willacy counties receiving between 100-400% of normal rainfall. Over the past 90 days, most of Deep South Texas has received between 25-75% of normal rainfall, with portions of northern Zapata and southeastern Willacy receiving between 75-150% of normal rainfall. Temperature Average Maximum Temperatures over the past 30 days across Deep South Texas have ranged above normal, 75 degrees and above. Average Minimum Temperatures over the past 30 days across Deep South Texas have ranged generally near to above normal between 50-60 degrees. Overall, both maximum and minimum temperatures are expected to be well-above normal through Sunday, December 28th, with well-below normal temperatures arriving Monday, December 29th into Thursday, January 1st. Summary of Impacts Hydrologic Impacts Streamflows remain below normal into late December. Texas water share values have dropped to 34% at Amistad and have risen to 17% at Falcon Lake. Agricultural Impacts Please see the latest Crop and Weather Report from Texas A&M AgriLife. Soil moistures are below to well below normal across all of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, especially across the brush country, while crop moistures are near to slightly below normal. Fire Hazard Impacts Normal wildland fire activity is expected through January 2026, with above normal wildland fire activity expected February and March 2026 for all of Deep South Texas. Burn bans remain in effect for all of Deep South Texas except Kenedy County. Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Streamflows over the past 7 days have remained below normal due to a lack of persistent rainfall. Most of the streamflow across Deep South Texas is between the 10th and 24th percentile for this time of year (orange shading on the map). Texas water share values have dropped slightly to 34% at Amistad and have risen to 17% at Falcon Lake, still near historic lows. Reservoir: Pool Elevation* (ft) | Current Elevation* (ft) | Percent Full* Amistad: 1117.00 | 1054.33 | 34.2% Falcon Lake: 301.20 | 254.80 | 17.0% Percent Full*: 1 Month Ago | 3 Months Ago | 1 Year Ago Amistad: 35.7% | 35.6% | 26.5% Falcon Lake: 15.3% | 16.0% | 13.5% * = Current Texas Water Share Agricultural Impacts Soil moistures remain below to well below normal across all of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, especially the brush country. Crop moisture indices are near to just slightly below normal across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Fire Hazard Impacts Keetch-Byram Drought Index values generally range from 400-700 across Deep South Texas, with 200-400 in northern Zapata, northeastern Starr, northwestern and eastern Hidalgo, coastal and southern Kenedy, southeastern Willacy, and northern Cameron counties. Normal wildland fire potential is expected through Jan 2026, with above normal wildland fire potential Feb-Mar 2026 for Deep South Texas. Burn bans are in effect for all of Deep South Texas except Kenedy County. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast A strong cold front is expected to arrive on Monday, December 28th, with a medium to likely (30-60%) chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly along the frontal boundary. Additional light rainfall or drizzle is expected along the coast and into the lower valley Monday evening into Tuesday, December 29th in the wake of the frontal passage, as a coastal trough of low pressure develops. Precipitation amounts between one-tenth of an inch to one-half of an inch are possible, mainly on Monday, December 28th. Overall, there is an equal chance of above normal or below normal rainfall through Sunday, January 4th, 2026 across Deep South Texas. Long-Range Outlooks There is a 50-60% probability of above normal temperatures across Deep South Texas through the month of January. There is a 40-50% probability of below normal rainfall across Deep South Texas through the month of January. Through March 2026, chances are leaning towards above normal temperatures and leaning towards below normal rainfall across Deep South Texas. Drought Outlook Drought is expected to persist across most of Deep South Texas through March, 2026 Drought is expected to develop across portions of eastern Hidalgo, southern Willacy, and northern Cameron counties through March, 2026.