Drought Information Statement for Vermont and northern New York October 2, 2025 Issued By: NWS Burlington, VT Contact Information: nwsbtv.info@noaa.gov Please see all currently available products at drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/ for regional drought status updates. Moderate to severe drought impacts worsen as drought categories have expanded across Vermont and northern New York over the past two weeks. U.S. Drought Monitor U.S. Drought Monitor for the Northeast Drought intensity and Extent: D3 (Extreme Drought): Addison, Rutland, Windsor and Orange counties in Vermont. D2 (Severe Drought): The rest of Vermont and also Clinton and Essex counties in New York. D1 (Moderate Drought): Parts of St Lawrence, Franklin, Clinton and Essex counties in New York. D0 (Abnormally Dry): Parts of St Lawrence and Franklin counties in New York. USDM Drought Class Definitions Recent Change in Drought Intensity 2-week change map for the Northeast Two-Week Drought Monitor Class Change: A few parts of our area had a degradation to introduce D3 over the past 2 weeks, though conditions remained steady over the last week despite recent rainfall. Drought impacts can vary based on type of sector (fire, agriculture, water management, recreational, etc…) and on local infiltration rates based on your soil types. Drought severity levels define the general regional level of impact, but local impacts can be more or less severe than the categories here suggest. Ending September 30, 2025 30-Day and 60-Day Precipitation Departures The summer has been extremely dry and very warm. Since the beginning of Aug, drought developed and intensified in our area. Most of the area has had less than 2” of precipitation in the last month. These totals are on the order of 50% of normal or less. 30 Day Precipitation Departure 60 Day Precipitation Departure Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Streamflows are running much below normal throughout the northeast. Drought impacts are occurring across the region, including crop and tree stress, dry wells, an increase in wildfire activity, and water restrictions. USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map valid 10/01/25 Soil Moisture and Agricultural Impacts Climate Prediction Center Soil Moisture products show rapidly drying topsoils resulting in deteriorating pasture conditions and increased watering needs for gardens and young trees. The drought has already produced negative consequences for crop yields. In some cases, estimated crop failures have been reported in portions of Addison and Orange Counties. CMOR Reports Numerous drought reports from the public in the past 2 weeks via CMOR CMOR and Other Data CMOR crop reports largely rank poor to very poor. Most reports show moderately to severely dry conditions. VT DEC Drought Reporter website has received numerous reports of well water shortages and other drinking water-related issues. Below CMOR report map Fire Hazard Impacts Wildfire agencies in New York and Vermont have routinely issued high to very high fire danger ratings recently due to very dry fuels. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast 7-day rainfall through October 8th suggests little if any drought relief. An area of northern New York is predicted to see between 1.0-1.75” of rainfall Forecast totals are lower for Vermont. Monthly Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Chances for precipitation in October has leaned towards below normal with the latest outlook. Warmer than normal temperatures are currently forecast for October. Summary of Impacts and Outlook Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts Streamflows and groundwater levels are well below normal across the majority of our area for this date in October based on USGS gages. Agricultural Impacts Farmers are facing challenges with crops and livestock due to the lack of adequate rainfall, forcing them to implement water conservation measures and even truck in water. Some reports of yield loss or near total crop failure have been reported. Fire Hazard Impacts Prolonged dry periods weaken or kill off vegetation, creating dry fuel that can ignite easily with a source. Stress on trees leading to early shedding of leaves and shutting down of annual grasses. Other Impacts Reports of dry wells and drinking water problems/restrictions have increased across both Vermont and northern New York over the past two weeks with more anticipated due to worsening conditions. Mitigation Actions Calls to Action: Conserve water, practice fire prevention, and follow directions from local officials. Outlook Likelihood for worsening conditions in portions of the area next week. Future precipitation and ground reports will drive decisions. Contact and Next Drought Briefing Information Next Drought Briefing Thursday, October 16, 2025 Method: Sent via email by 3 pm Disclaimer Information contained in this briefing is time-sensitive Do Not Use After: Thursday, October 16, 2025 Contact Information Web weather.gov/burlington Phone (802) 862-2475 Email nwsbtv.info@noaa.gov Facebook facebook.com/NWSBurlington Twitter x.com/nwsburlington For northern New York and all of Vermont