Drought Information Statement for Northern and Eastern Maine Valid October 9, 2025 Issued By: WFO Caribou, ME This product will be updated October 16, 2025 or sooner, if drought conditions change significantly. Drought worsens across Downeast and Northern Maine Moderate to Extreme Drought now covers the entire state U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Maine Percentage of Maine in Drought D0: (Abnormally Dry): 0% D1 (Moderate Drought): 28.08% D2 (Severe Drought): 42.37% D3 (Extreme Drought): 29.55% Drought Intensity and Extent: D3 (Extreme Drought): Hancock, Washington, & southern Penobscot counties. D2 (Severe Drought): Central Piscataquis, Penobscot & southern Aroostook counties. D1 (Moderate Drought): Northern Maine, including northern Piscataquis, Penobscot and Aroostook counties. D0: (Abnormally Dry): No areas are abnormally dry at this point in time. Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to the latest 4-week change map for Northeast U.S. Four week drought monitor class change: Drought Worsened: Northern Maine, Interior and Coastal Downeast, and Bangor Area. No Change: Central Highlands. Precipitation Continued dry conditions over the last 30 days with less than 2 inches of rainfall for the month for most of the region. All areas are running below normal, with a large portion of the region running between 5% to 50% of normal. Total precipitation over the past 30 days Percent of normal precipitation for the past 30 days Link to Northeast Regional Climate Center Link to Northeast Regional Climate Center Temperature Temperature departure from normal over the past 7 days Temperature departure from normal over the past 30 days 7 day trends have featured above normal temperatures across much of the area. 30 day trends are only slightly warmer than normal for most locations. Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts The majority of streamflows across the service area continue to remain within the “Below” to “Much Below Normal” percentiles. (USGS) Some sites have reached record low flows for this time of year. Agricultural Impacts Remaining harvest underway; ~30% crop losses due to ongoing drought conditions. Fire Hazard Impacts Wildfire activity has been above average in Maine since August. Trees losing leaves rapidly due to drought stress. Leaf litter is extremely dry. Other Impacts Dry wells can occur during periods of drought and have been reported over the past few weeks. Mitigation Actions Conserve water, practice fire prevention and follow directions from local officials. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Majority of the stream flows northern Maine remain in the “below normal” or “much below normal” categories. A few locations are now at record low flows for this time of year. Only a few isolated spots are within the “normal” category. Agricultural Impacts Surface soil moisture across northern and central Maine has improved significantly due to recent rainfall. Deeper soil moisture is showing some improvement across the same region. Soil moisture is significantly below normal across Downeast Maine. Image Captions: National Water Model Soil Moisture Percentile 0-10cm Depth Soil Moisture Percentile 10-40cm Depth Soil Depth: Surface to ~4” Soil Depth: ~4” to ~16” Below Normal Above Normal Below Normal Above Normal Groundwater Impacts Significant impacts to deeper soil moisture conditions with most groundwater gauges below normal. Maine Drought Task Force Dry Well Survey reporting page here. Image Captions: USGS Groundwater Gauge Status Soil Moisture Percentile 100-200cm Depth Below Normal Above Normal Soil Depth: ~40” to ~79” Fire Hazard Impacts High/Moderate fire danger statewide as this week’s rainfall has improved conditions slightly. Windy and dry conditions through the weekend could increase fire danger. Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. Image Captions: NICC October 2025 Significant Fire Potential Image Captions: Maine Wildfire Danger Report Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Dry conditions expected through the first part of the weekend. An approaching coastal low could bring rainfall beginning Monday and lasting through Wednesday next week. However, there is high uncertainty with the track of this low and confidence in rainfall totals is low. Image Caption: Weather Prediction Center 7-day precipitation forecast valid 10/8 8AM to 10/15 8AM Rapid Onset Drought Outlook Currently no rapid drought risk forecast in the next two weeks. 8 to 14 Day Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center 8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook. Valid Oct 09 to 15. Main Takeaways for the 2 Week Period: Stronger signal of above normal temperatures expected. A slight signal for wetter than average precipitation. Possible Impact A significant amount of rainfall is still needed to make up for the current deficit. Above average conditions will help, but this outlook does not indicate rainfall amounts. Long Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center October Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center October Precipitation Outlook. Valid Oct 2025. Main Takeaways for the Next Month: Strong signal for Above Normal temperatures. No strong signals for either wetter or drier than average precipitation. Possible Impact High uncertainty on precipitation does not indicate a long term trend toward drought improvement. Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Main Takeaways No projected change in drought this month. Downeast coast expected to have drought removal by end of the 3-month seasonal outlook. Possible Impact Potential for some improved conditions in drought heavy areas in the next few months. Main Takeaways Drought conditions have worsened since last week, and recent rainfall will only provide a short term improvement. More consistent periods of rainfall are needed to improve conditions. The beginning of October has been both drier and warmer than normal, worsening drought conditions across the northern and central parts of the state. Reduced harvest yields are expected to continue through the rest of the harvest season. Additional impacts include, but not limited to, declining streamflows, lake levels, and groundwater. Rain may return at the beginning of next week, however this is highly uncertain. Cooling temperatures for the season will continue to limit evaporation. Contact Information Web www.weather.gov/gyx www.weather.gov/car Questions? Email nws.caribou@noaa.gov james.sinko@noaa.gov Louise.fode@noaa.gov