Drought Information Statement for Northern and Eastern Maine Valid October 23, 2025 Issued By: WFO Caribou, ME This product will be updated October 23, 2025 or sooner, if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/car/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/car for regional drought status updates. Drought has worsened to Severe across much of Northern Maine Extreme Drought remains consistent over the last week The Entire State of Maine remains in Drought U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Maine Percentage of Maine in Drought D0: (Abnormally Dry): 0% D1 (Moderate Drought): 7.31% D2 (Severe Drought): 56.91% D3 (Extreme Drought): 35.78% Drought Intensity and Extent: D3 (Extreme Drought): Hancock, Washington, & southern Penobscot counties. D2 (Severe Drought): Central Piscataquis, Penobscot, central & southern Aroostook counties. D1 (Moderate Drought): Far Northern Maine; including extreme northern Somerset and northern Aroostook counties. D0: (Abnormally Dry): No areas. Manually update the numbers… Remember USDM #s is D0-D4, D1-D4, D2-D4, D3-D4 These images are date specific and need to be downloaded: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?Northeast https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?ME https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20250819/20250819_me_text.png Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to the latest 4-week change map for Northeast U.S. Four week drought monitor class change: Drought Worsened: All of Northern Maine, Interior and Eastern Coastal Downeast, and Bangor Area. No Change: Central Highlands and Western Coastal Downeast. These images are date specific and need to be downloaded: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/ChangeMaps.aspx https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/chng/png/current/current_ME_chng_4W.png Precipitation A couple of rainfall events have raised precipitation totals over the area, with most areas seeing between 0.5 and 1.5 inches of rainfall. However, overall conditions are still running low, with most of the region running between 40% to 90% of normal. Total precipitation over the past 30 days Percent of normal precipitation for the past 30 days Link to Northeast Regional Climate Center Images will need to be manually updated due to website security issues https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/nrcc/30dPDataNRCC.png https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/nrcc/30dPDeptNRCC.png https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/nrcc/30dPNormNRCC.png Link to Northeast Regional Climate Center Temperature Temperature departure from normal over the past 7 days Temperature departure from normal over the past 30 days 7 day temperature trends have been above normal across much of the area. 30 day trends are also above normal for all locations. https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/nrcc/7dTDeptNRCC.png https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/nrcc/30dTDeptNRCC.png Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts The majority of streamflows across the service area continue to remain within the “Much Below Normal” percentiles with several points nearing all time record lows. (USGS) Record 7 day mean flows at the following locations; St. John River @ Nine Mile, St. John River @ Dickey, Mattawamkeag River @ Mattawamkeag, and Piscataquis River @ Medford. Lakes & ponds running significantly below normal, posing a risk of rocks to boating. Dry Drinking Water Wells Increasing dry well reports, which can occur during periods of significant drought. Maine EMA Dry Well Survey: https://maine-dry-well-survey-maine.hub.arcgis.com/ Fire Hazard Impacts Per the Maine Forest Service: Recent precipitation along with shorter days and cooler temperatures have combined to lower the wildfire risk. Although drought conditions remain on the landscape, the risk for larger wildfires is normally reduced. Typical wildfires in late October and November usually do not require the same level of effort to extinguish. Agricultural Impacts Harvest complete; significant specific crop losses for the 2025 growing season. Mitigation Actions Conserve water, practice fire prevention and follow directions from local officials. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Majority of the stream flows in northern & eastern Maine remain in the “much below normal” to near “record low” categories. A few locations are now at record low flows for this time of year. Only a few isolated spots are within the “normal” category due to fall lake “drawdown”. USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map USGS 7 day average streamflow compared to historical streamflow https://waterwatch.usgs.gov/index.php?r=me&id=pa07d https://waterwatch.usgs.gov/index.php?id=pa07d&sid=w__map|m__pa07d_nwc&r=me Agricultural Impacts Near surface soil moisture across Maine has improved with recent rainfall. Isolated areas remain below normal due to lack of rainfall. Rainfall amounts were insufficient to warrant improvements to the ongoing drought. Image Captions: National Water Model Soil Moisture Percentile 0-10cm Depth Soil Moisture Percentile 10-40cm Depth Soil Depth: Surface to ~4” Soil Depth: ~4” to ~16” Below Normal Above Normal Below Normal Above Normal Manually UPDATE NWM Soil Moisture: https://nedews.nrcc.cornell.edu/ https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/Figures/daily/curr.w.rank.daily.gif 0-10cm map: https://nedews.nrcc.cornell.edu/NWM_maps/SOIL_M-1day-lev0-me.png 10-40cm map: https://nedews.nrcc.cornell.edu/NWM_maps/SOIL_M-1day-lev1-me.png https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/cmi.gif Groundwater Impacts Significant impacts to deeper soil moisture conditions continue, with most groundwater gauges below normal. Drinking water wells have been running dry due to deeper groundwater impacts. Maine Drought Task Force Dry Well Survey reporting page here. Image Captions: USGS Groundwater Gauge Status Soil Moisture Percentile 100-200cm Depth Below Normal Above Normal Soil Depth: ~40” to ~79” Manually UPDATE NWM Soil Moisture (screenshot): https://nedews.nrcc.cornell.edu/ https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/Figures/daily/curr.w.rank.daily.gif 0-10cm map: https://nedews.nrcc.cornell.edu/NWM_maps/SOIL_M-1day-lev0-me.png 10-40cm map: https://nedews.nrcc.cornell.edu/NWM_maps/SOIL_M-1day-lev1-me.png 100-200cm map: https://nedews.nrcc.cornell.edu/NWM_maps/SOIL_M-1day-lev1-me.png https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/cmi.gif Fire Hazard Impacts Mostly lower fire danger across the area. The risk for larger wildfires is reduced. Relatively cloudy this weekend with less impacts to fuels, however the lowering sun angle has less influence in mid-late fall. Typical wildfires in late October and November usually do not require the same level of effort to extinguish. Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. Image Captions: NICC November 2025 Significant Fire Potential Image Captions: Maine Wildfire Danger Report Screenshot: https://mainefireweather.org/ https://www.nifc.gov/modules/custom/nicc_outlooks/images/outlook_d3.png https://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive-services/outlooks https://www.nifc.gov/nicc-files/predictive/outlooks/month1_outlook.png Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Unsettled weather pattern with light precipitation events expected. This will help improve the near surface drought conditions, but unlikely to help in overall groundwater conditions. Heading into next weekend, there is signals pointing to slightly above normal precipitation. No local changes in drought designations as rainfall amounts were insufficient to warrant categorical improvements. Image Caption: Weather Prediction Center 7-day precipitation forecast valid 10/23 8AM to 10/30 8AM https://www.weather.gov/images/nerfc/ops/7DayWPCQPF.png Rapid Onset Drought Outlook Currently no rapid drought risk forecast in the next two weeks. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d8_14_contours.png 8 to 14 Day Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center 8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook. Valid Oct 30 to Nov 5. Main Takeaways for the 2 Week Period: Strong signal of above normal temperatures expected. A slight signal for wetter than average precipitation. Possible Impact This outlook indicates a slow trend toward improving drought conditions. However, how warm the temperatures are is a factor that may increase evaporation. https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu/regional/drought/update/outlook_temp.png https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu/regional/drought/update/outlook_precip.png Long Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center October Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center October Precipitation Outlook. Valid Nov 2025. Main Takeaways for the Next Month: Weak signal for Above Normal temperatures. No strong signals for either wetter or drier than average precipitation. Possible Impact Weak La Nina will result in subseasonal factors playing larger role in the pattern. However, due to high uncertainty on precipitation prior to winter frost does not indicate a long term trend toward drought improvement. Historically some very large rainfall events have occurred in November, however prolonged periods of dry weather are also common during the autumn. Discussion: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus07.html Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Main Takeaways No projected change in drought the remainder of this month. The severity of the ongoing drought suggests some degree of drought is expected to persist into the 2025-26 winter. Possible Impact Drinking water supply issues continuing due to deep groundwater deficits. Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/month_drought.png https://storage.googleapis.com/noaa-nidis-drought-gov-data/current-conditions/nws-dgt-images/nws-1-month-drought-outlook-new-england.png https://storage.googleapis.com/noaa-nidis-drought-gov-data/current-conditions/nws-dgt-images/nws-seasonal-(3-month)-drought-outlook-new-england.png Main Takeaways Drought has worsened across much of Northern Maine, with an addition of D2-Severe drought conditions. Drought conditions have primarily stayed the same with D2-Severe and D3-Extreme elsewhere since last week. Impacts include, but are not limited to: low lake/pond and river/stream levels, dried marshland, and a growing number of dry drinking water wells . Multiple sustained light to moderate rain events are needed to overcome the drought. The end of the growing season means less water demands on the system and more water for groundwater recharge with each rain event moving forward. 5-12 inches of additional rainfall, roughly 125-175% of normal, is needed between now and when the ground freezes, otherwise drought could linger throughout the winter. The severity of the ongoing drought suggests some degree of long-term drought conditions persisting into the 2025-26 winter. Recharge from recent rainfall is recharging parts of the water system, so some improvements is possible if additional rainfall can materialize over the coming weeks. Contact Information Web www.weather.gov/gyx www.weather.gov/car Questions? Email nws.caribou@noaa.gov james.sinko@noaa.gov Louise.fode@noaa.gov Required