Drought Information Statement for Northern and Eastern Maine Valid November 13, 2025 Issued By: WFO Caribou, ME This product will be updated November 20, 2025 or sooner, if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/car/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/car for regional drought status updates. The entire state of Maine remains in some level of drought Some minor improvements from last week, with a slow improving trend expected Seasonal transition will occur soon, limiting change to soil and groundwater conditions over the winter U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Maine Percentage of Maine in Drought D0: (Abnormally Dry): 0% D1 (Moderate Drought): 25.07% D2 (Severe Drought): 43.22% D3 (Extreme Drought): 31.71% Drought Intensity and Extent: D3 (Extreme Drought): Central and Southern Hancock, Southern Penobscot and Western Washington counties. D2 (Severe Drought): Northern Somerset, Northern Piscataquis, Northern Aroostook, Central Penobscot, Northern Hancock counties and much of Washington county. D1 (Moderate Drought): Eastern & Southern Aroostook, Central & Southern Piscataquis, Central & Northern Penobscot counties. D0: (Abnormally Dry): No areas. Manually update the numbers… Remember USDM #s is D0-D4, D1-D4, D2-D4, D3-D4 These images are date specific and need to be downloaded: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?Northeast https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?ME https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20250819/20250819_me_text.png Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to the latest 4-week change map for Northeast U.S. Four week drought monitor class change: Drought Worsened: North Woods & Northern Aroostook County. Small portion of Southern Penobscot County. Drought Improved: Central Highlands, Southern Baxter Region to Southern Aroostook County and much of Washington County. No Change: Coastal Downeast, Northern Baxter Region, Central Aroostook County. These images are date specific and need to be downloaded: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/ChangeMaps.aspx https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/chng/png/current/current_ME_chng_4W.png Precipitation Increased rainfall + snow over the Central Highlands into NE Aroostook county. Higher totals far Downeast. This is 100-110% of normal. North Woods & Bangor Region below normal rainfall. This is 60 to 90% of normal. Total precipitation over the past 30 days Percent of normal precipitation for the past 30 days Link to Northeast Regional Climate Center Images will need to be manually updated due to website security issues https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/nrcc/30dPDataNRCC.png https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/nrcc/30dPDeptNRCC.png https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/nrcc/30dPNormNRCC.png Link to Northeast Regional Climate Center Temperature Temperature departure from normal over the past 7 days Temperature departure from normal over the past 30 days 7 day temperature trends have been slightly to moderately above normal across much of the area. 30 day trends are 2 to 3 degrees above normal for most locations. https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/nrcc/7dTDeptNRCC.png https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/nrcc/30dTDeptNRCC.png Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts The majority of the monthly streamflows across the service area continue to remain within the “Below” to “Much Below Normal” percentiles with several points nearing all time record lows. (USGS) 7 day stream flows have improved, with many locations now normal or just below normal Lakes & ponds running significantly below normal, posing a risk of rocks above water. Continued slight improvements indicated on rivers and streams. Dry Drinking Water Wells Dry well reports continue although reports have slowed, most of these occurring in Downeast Maine. Maine EMA Dry Well Survey: https://maine-dry-well-survey-maine.hub.arcgis.com/ Some improvement has been reported in the last week for groundwater levels in Downeast, Eastern Aroostook and Central Highlands. No groundwater improvement in western Downeast areas, Bangor region and North Woods. Mitigation Actions Conserve water and follow directions from local officials. Winter Ice Impacts Increasing potential of “anchor ice” forming in the rivers & streams Ponds/lakes levels low with ice formation exposing rocks posing risk to recreational activities. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Recent rainfall has significantly improved 7-day river flows. Most locations are now at normal or just below normal. The Allagash and Fish river basins across the north still remain in the “below normal” category. USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map USGS 7 day average streamflow compared to historical streamflow https://waterwatch.usgs.gov/index.php?r=me&id=pa07d https://waterwatch.usgs.gov/index.php?id=pa07d&sid=w__map|m__pa07d_nwc&r=me Agricultural Impacts Soil moisture across Northern Maine has improved and is now close to normal or just below in many locations. Some areas around the Bangor region are still experiencing significantly below normal soil moisture. This indicator will be less relevant heading into winter as the ground freezes. Image Captions: National Water Model Soil Moisture Percentile 0-10cm Depth Soil Moisture Percentile 10-40cm Depth Soil Depth: Surface to ~4” Soil Depth: Surface to ~39” Below Normal Above Normal Below Normal Above Normal Manually UPDATE NWM Soil Moisture: https://nedews.nrcc.cornell.edu/ https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/Figures/daily/curr.w.rank.daily.gif 0-10cm map: https://nedews.nrcc.cornell.edu/NWM_maps/SOIL_M-1day-lev0-me.png 10-40cm map: https://nedews.nrcc.cornell.edu/NWM_maps/SOIL_M-1day-lev1-me.png https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/cmi.gif Groundwater Impacts Deep layer moisture continues to be below to much below normal as it takes time for recent events to percolate through the soil. Drinking water wells continue to be dry, no significant improvements yet. Maine Drought Task Force Dry Well Survey reporting page here. Image Captions: USGS Groundwater Gauge Status Soil Moisture Percentile 0-200cm Depth Below Normal Above Normal Soil Depth: Surface to ~79” Manually UPDATE NWM Soil Moisture (screenshot): https://nedews.nrcc.cornell.edu/ https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/Figures/daily/curr.w.rank.daily.gif 0-10cm map: https://nedews.nrcc.cornell.edu/NWM_maps/SOIL_M-1day-lev0-me.png 10-40cm map: https://nedews.nrcc.cornell.edu/NWM_maps/SOIL_M-1day-lev1-me.png 100-200cm map: https://nedews.nrcc.cornell.edu/NWM_maps/SOIL_M-1day-lev1-me.png https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/cmi.gif Fire Hazard Impacts Mostly low fire danger across the area. Relatively cloudy with significant rainfall will bring nearly an end to fire danger. Soaked fuels, combined with the lowering sun angle which has less influence in mid-late fall. Typical wildfires in late October and November usually do not require the same level of effort to extinguish. Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. Image Captions: NICC November 2025 Significant Fire Potential Image Captions: Maine Wildfire Danger Report Screenshot: https://mainefireweather.org/ https://www.nifc.gov/modules/custom/nicc_outlooks/images/outlook_d3.png https://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive-services/outlooks https://www.nifc.gov/nicc-files/predictive/outlooks/month1_outlook.png Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Unsettled weather pattern continues into next week. Additional rainfall & snowfall expected late this weekend. Expect some melting and will contribute positively to soil moisture. Although a significant rainfall event is not expected, continued widespread precipitation will allow previous moisture to percolate deeper into the soil. Continued potential for drought designation changes next week as precipitation favored pattern continues. Image Caption: Weather Prediction Center 7-day precipitation forecast valid 11/13 8AM to 11/20 8AM https://www.weather.gov/images/nerfc/ops/7DayWPCQPF.png Rapid Onset Drought Outlook Currently no rapid drought risk forecast in the next two weeks. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d8_14_contours.png Rainfall needed to “end the drought” 150-200% of normal precipitation over the next month is needed to ameliorate drought conditions before the ground freezes Once frozen, precipitation that would normally replenish groundwater won’t soaking in, leaving wells and aquifers with little recovery until the spring thaw Steady, light-rain events with high absorption rates are ideal. Snowfall at night melting during the day is ideal. Lastly, no rapid cold air outbreaks is ideal. 5-8” of above normal or extra rainfall is needed to see full recovery before the ground freezes Ground frost in Maine can start as early as this week in the North and higher elevations, and mid to late December in southern areas on average, with long cold snaps often necessary to make depths over 4”. While accumulating snow is often a positive sign for areas experiencing drought, the stored water, measured as Snow Water Equivalent (SWE), does not provide an immediate benefit for drought recovery until it actually melts and begins to enter the wider water system. Around 8” Around 11” Around 12” 8 to 14 Day Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center 8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook. Valid Nov 6 to Nov 12. Main Takeaways for the 2 Week Period: No signals above or below for temperatures expected. A weak to moderate signal for wetter than average precipitation (rain or snow). Possible Impact This outlook indicates a potential trend toward improving drought conditions. Freeze-up is expected soon and it is unlikely the drought will be over before then. https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu/regional/drought/update/outlook_temp.png https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu/regional/drought/update/outlook_precip.png Long Range Outlooks (Nov-Jan) The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center October Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center October Precipitation Outlook. Valid Nov 2025. Main Takeaways for the Next Month: Moderate signal for Above Normal temperatures. No strong signals for either wetter or drier than average precipitation. Possible Impact Weak La Nina will result in subseasonal factors playing larger role in the pattern. It is likely that there will be some improvement, but not enough to prevent us from entering into winter under some drought conditions. Historically some large rainfall events have occurred in November, however prolonged periods of dry weather are also common during the autumn. Discussion: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus07.html Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Main Takeaways No projected change in drought the remainder of this month. The severity of the ongoing drought suggests some degree of drought is expected to persist into the 2025-26 winter. Possible Impact Drinking water supply issues continuing due to deep groundwater deficits. Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/month_drought.png https://storage.googleapis.com/noaa-nidis-drought-gov-data/current-conditions/nws-dgt-images/nws-1-month-drought-outlook-new-england.png https://storage.googleapis.com/noaa-nidis-drought-gov-data/current-conditions/nws-dgt-images/nws-seasonal-(3-month)-drought-outlook-new-england.png Main Takeaways Widespread Moderate to Extreme Drought conditions continue across Northern Maine, with some improvements in central and eastern areas. Impacts include, but are not limited to: low lake/pond and river/stream levels, dried marshland, and dry drinking water wells. Multiple sustained light to moderate rain events are needed to overcome the drought. Rainfall of this type is expected over the next week, but will not produce enough to overcome the drought. 8-12 inches of additional rainfall, roughly 150-200% of normal, is needed between now and when the ground freezes, otherwise drought could linger throughout the winter. Accumulating snow can be beneficial to drought by insulating the ground before it has a chance to freeze, plus it stores water that can melt and contribute to groundwater recharge. The severity of the ongoing drought suggests some degree of long-term drought conditions persisting into the 2025-26 winter. Contact Information Web www.weather.gov/gyx www.weather.gov/car Questions? Email nws.caribou@noaa.gov james.sinko@noaa.gov Louise.fode@noaa.gov Required