Drought Information Statement for Northern and Eastern Maine Valid November 26, 2025 Issued By: WFO Caribou, ME This product will be updated December 4th, 2025 or sooner, if drought conditions change significantly. The entire state of Maine remains in some level of drought Rainfall + snowmelt has led to drought improvements statewide Seasonal transition occurring soon, limiting change to soil and groundwater conditions over the winter U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Maine Percentage of Maine in Drought D0: (Abnormally Dry): 0% D1 (Moderate Drought): 34.07% D2 (Severe Drought): 62.86% D3 (Extreme Drought): 3.07% Drought Intensity and Extent: D2 (Severe Drought): Northern Somerset, northern Piscataquis, northern & far southern Aroostook, southern Penobscot, central & southern Hancock & Washington counties. D1 (Moderate Drought): Eastern & southern Aroostook, central & southern Piscataquis, northern Penobscot counties, far northern Hancock & Washington counties. D0: (Abnormally Dry): No areas. Recent Change in Drought Intensity Four week drought monitor class change: Drought Worsened: North Woods & northern Aroostook County. Drought Improved: Much of eastern Aroostook, Baxter Region, Central Highlands, Bangor Region & Downeast. No Change: Northern Somerset, northern Piscataquis and portions of northern Aroostook County. Precipitation Continued rainfall & snow over much of the area has resulted in the 30 day precip being 100-130% of normal in Northeastern Aroostook, and portions of eastern Washington. Portions of the North Woods & western Downeast locations, including the Greater Bangor area, received precip at or below normal. Total precipitation over the past 30 days Percent of normal precipitation for the past 30 days Temperature departure from normal over the past 7 days Temperature departure from normal over the past 30 days 7 day temperature trends have generally been near normal or 2 degrees below. 30 day trends are near normal to 2 degrees above normal for portions of Aroostook and Penobscot. Near normal to 2 degrees below normal everywhere else. Snowpack & Snow Water Equivalent Ground remains thawed under the snowpack. Although accumulating snow is often a positive sign for areas experiencing drought, the stored water does not provide an immediate benefit for drought recovery until it actually melts and begins to enter the wider water system. Summary of Impacts Hydrologic Impacts The majority of the monthly streamflows across the service area have gone down to “below normal” in the past 7 days; a few in Central Highlands and Bangor region are still near normal. (USGS) Lakes & ponds are slowly returning to near normal but most remain below normal. Continued slight improvements indicated on rivers and streams. Dry Drinking Water Wells Dry well reports continue, although reports have slowed, most of these occurring in Bangor Region and Downeast Maine. Some improvement has been reported in the last week for groundwater levels in Downeast, eastern Aroostook and Central Highlands. Very little groundwater improvement in western Downeast areas, Bangor region, Baxter region and North Woods. Mitigation Actions Conserve water and follow directions from local officials. Winter Ice Impacts Increasing potential of “anchor ice” forming in the rivers & streams due to lower flows. Ponds/lakes levels low with ice formation exposing rocks posing risk to recreational activities. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts 7 day river flows have degraded back to “below normal” values, with a few in the Central Highlands and Bangor region staying near normal. Downeast coast average streamflow has degraded to “much below normal”. Central Maine is mostly “below normal”. Portions of the North Woods and Crown of Maine are near normal. USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map USGS 7 day average streamflow compared to historical streamflow Agricultural Impacts Near surface soil moisture across much of Maine has improved and is now at or above normal. Portions of the Downeast coast, however, are below normal. Deeper soil moisture continues to be significantly below normal in the Bangor region, Downeast, northern Maine and Central Highlands. Image Captions: National Water Model Soil Moisture Percentile 0-10cm Depth Soil Moisture Percentile 10-40cm Depth Soil Depth: Surface to ~4” Soil Depth: Surface to ~39” >This indicator will be less relevant heading into winter as the ground freezes. Groundwater Impacts Deep layer moisture continues to be “below” to “much below normal” as it takes time for recent events to percolate through the soil. Drinking water wells continue to be dry, no significant improvements yet. Maine Drought Task Force Dry Well Survey reporting page here. Image Captions: USGS Groundwater Gauge Status Soil Moisture Percentile 0-200cm Depth Soil Depth: Surface to ~79” Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Unsettled weather pattern through the weekend, with additional rainfall & snowfall. Around half an inch of rain expected Wednesday through Thursday, and up to ¾ of an inch along the coast. Warm daytime highs until the weekend, so expect some melting that will contribute positively to soil moisture. Another round of precipitation possible in the north on Friday, and early next week. Image Caption: Weather Prediction Center 7-day precipitation forecast valid 11/25 7AM to 12/07 7AM Rainfall Needed to “End the Drought” 175-225% of normal precipitation over the next month is needed to ameliorate drought conditions before the ground freezes. Once frozen, precipitation that would normally replenish groundwater won’t soaking in, leaving wells and aquifers with little recovery until the spring thaw Steady, light-rain events with high absorption rates are ideal. Snowfall at night melting during the day is ideal. Lastly, no rapid cold air outbreaks is ideal. 5-8” of above normal or extra rainfall is needed to see full recovery before the ground freezes. Ground frost in Maine can start as early as now in the north and higher elevations, and mid to late December in southern areas on average, with long cold snaps often necessary to make depths over 4”. While accumulating snow is often a positive sign for areas experiencing drought, the stored water, measured as snow water equivalent (SWE), does not provide an immediate benefit for drought recovery until it actually melts and begins to enter the wider water system. Around 8” Around 10.5” Around 12” 8 to 14 Day Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center 8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook. Valid Dec 2 to Dec 8. Main Takeaways for the 2 Week Period: Moderate signal of below normal temperatures expected. A weak to moderate signal for wetter than average precipitation (rain or snow). Possible Impact This outlook indicates a potential trend toward improving drought conditions. Freeze-up is expected soon and it is unlikely the drought will be over before then. Long Range Outlooks (December) The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center December Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center December Precipitation Outlook. Valid Nov 25 2025. Main Takeaways for the Next Month: Weak signal for Below Normal temperatures in northern portions of the state. No significant signal for southern areas. Weak signals of above normal precipitation (snow or rain). Winter Pattern Outlook Weak La Nina will result in subseasonal factors playing larger role in the pattern. It is likely that there will be some improvement, but not enough to prevent us from going through the winter under some drought conditions. Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Main Takeaways No projected change in drought the remainder of this month. The severity of the ongoing drought suggests some degree of drought is expected to persist into the 2025-26 winter. Possible Impact Drinking water supply issues continuing due to deep groundwater deficits. Main Takeaways Widespread Moderate to Severe Drought conditions continue across northern and eastern Maine, with some improvements in most locations. Impacts include, but are not limited to: Dry drinking water wells, low lake/pond and river/stream levels and dried marshlands. A little improvement expected over the next 7 days. Indications signal for some improvement to arrive in December, but overall will not produce enough to overcome the drought. 8-12 inches of rainfall, roughly 175-225% of normal, is needed between now and when the ground freezes. Otherwise, drought will linger throughout the winter. Accumulating snow can be beneficial to drought by insulating the ground before it has a chance to freeze; plus it stores water that can melt and contribute to groundwater recharge. The severity of the ongoing drought suggests some degree of long-term drought conditions persisting into the 2025-26 winter. Contact Information Web www.weather.gov/gyx www.weather.gov/car Questions? Email nws.caribou@noaa.gov james.sinko@noaa.gov Louise.fode@noaa.gov