Drought Information Statement for Northern and Eastern Maine Valid January 4, 2026 Issued By: WFO Caribou, ME This product will be updated February 5, 2026 or sooner, if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/car/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/car for regional drought status updates. Maine’s drought to persist over the winter with frozen soils hurting recovery. Very little recovery in Downeast Maine Disclaimer: NWS Caribou Drought Information Statement updates will be made on a monthly basis due to the seasonal change, and may not match the weekly USDM. For more information visit link: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/ U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Maine Percentage of Maine in Drought D0: (Abnormally Dry): 0% D1 (Moderate Drought): 38.31% D2 (Severe Drought): 58.62% D3 (Extreme Drought): 3.07% Drought Intensity and Extent: D2 (Severe Drought): Northern Somerset, northern Piscataquis, northern Aroostook, southern Penobscot, central & southern Hancock counties. D1 (Moderate Drought): Eastern & southern Aroostook, central & southern Piscataquis, northern & central Penobscot, far northern Hancock & all of Washington counties. D0: (Abnormally Dry): No areas. Manually update the numbers… Remember USDM #s is D0-D4, D1-D4, D2-D4, D3-D4 These images are date specific and need to be downloaded: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?Northeast https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?ME https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20250819/20250819_me_text.png Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to the latest 4-week change map for Northeast U.S. Four week drought monitor class change: Drought Worsened: No Areas. Drought Improved: Western Washington County and a very small area of Northern Hancock County. No Change: Rest of Maine. These images are date specific and need to be downloaded: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/ChangeMaps.aspx https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/chng/png/current/current_ME_chng_4W.png Precipitation We saw a rain on snow event December 19th followed by a mixed precipitation event at the end of December. Much of the remaining precipitation has been snow. Precipitation has been mostly below normal (50-80% of Normal) Total precipitation over the past 30 days Percent of normal precipitation for the past 30 days Link to Northeast Regional Climate Center Images will need to be manually updated due to website security issues https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/nrcc/30dPDataNRCC.png https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/nrcc/30dPDeptNRCC.png https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/nrcc/30dPNormNRCC.png Link to Northeast Regional Climate Center Temperature Temperature departure from normal over the past 7 days Temperature departure from normal over the past 30 days 7 day temperature trends are generally well below normal by 5-7 degrees 30 day trends are generally 5-8 degrees below normal. https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/nrcc/7dTDeptNRCC.png https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/nrcc/30dTDeptNRCC.png Link to National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center (NOHRSC) Snowpack & Snow Water Equivalent Ground is frozen in nearly all of the area. Downeast Maine: 2-4” deep, Central Highlands: 4-8” deep, Northern Maine: 7-14” deep. Although accumulating snow is often a positive sign for areas experiencing drought, the stored water does not provide an immediate benefit for drought recovery until it actually melts and begins to enter the wider water system if the ground is thawed. We expect little to no help till the spring thaw. Manually made in GraphiDSS CAR NOHRSC Database Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts 7 day river flows are “below normal” to near “normal” discharge values. Much of Northern Maine, Central Highlands, Penobscot Valley and Interior Downeast have 100% frozen rivers. Rankings are based on open natural flow. USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map USGS 7 day average streamflow compared to historical streamflow https://waterwatch.usgs.gov/index.php?r=me&id=pa07d https://waterwatch.usgs.gov/index.php?id=pa07d&sid=w__map|m__pa07d_nwc&r=me Groundwater Impacts Deep layer moisture continues to be “below” to “much below normal”. There has been some recovery but with thickening frost depth, groundwater improvements will be small. No new drinking water wells dry reports in December 2025 is a positive sign. Maine Drought Task Force Dry Well Survey reporting page here. Image Captions: USGS Groundwater Gauge Status Soil Moisture Percentile 0-200cm Depth Below Normal Above Normal Soil Depth: Surface to ~79” The Greatest Drought Concern through the winter months for Drinking Water Manually UPDATE NWM Soil Moisture (screenshot): https://nedews.nrcc.cornell.edu/ https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/Figures/daily/curr.w.rank.daily.gif 0-10cm map: https://nedews.nrcc.cornell.edu/NWM_maps/SOIL_M-1day-lev0-me.png 10-40cm map: https://nedews.nrcc.cornell.edu/NWM_maps/SOIL_M-1day-lev1-me.png 100-200cm map: https://nedews.nrcc.cornell.edu/NWM_maps/SOIL_M-1day-lev1-me.png https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/cmi.gif Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts The majority of the monthly streamflows across the area remain “near normal” to “below normal” (USGS) Lakes & ponds although ice covered are near to below normal water levels. Dry Drinking Water Wells No new dry well reports in December but very little improvement in groundwater expected. Maine EMA Dry Well Survey: https://maine-dry-well-survey-maine.hub.arcgis.com/ Mitigation Actions Conserve water and follow directions from local officials. Winter Ice Impacts Rivers are nearing 100% ice covered with near normal to below normal flows. Increased potential of “anchor ice” in the rivers & streams due to lower flows. Ponds/lakes levels are low exposing rocks posing risk to recreational activities. Winter Drought Considerations Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Overview: Maine’s drought will persists over the winter with frozen soils hurting recovery. If the snowpack in January continues to grow, it can act as an insulator, limiting deeper frost depths. When the ground is frozen, water infiltration becomes difficult regardless of winter rainfall or snowmelt. Winter is the driest time of the year since cold air cannot hold as much moisture as warm air. Monthly precipitation averages drop to 2-3 inches both January and February. Looking ahead to Spring: A snowpack through winter is crucial to act as a natural water reservoir, as spring snowmelt helps recharge soil and aquifers. Below-normal snowfall could extend the drought and impact agriculture in 2026. The timing and rate of snowmelt will be vital to sustaining base flow in rivers and lakes the next warm season. Even an active spring flood season can be insufficient to fully recharge aquifers in severe drought conditions. Long Range Outlooks (January 2026) The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center 1 Month Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center 1 Month Precipitation Outlook. Valid Dec 31, 2025. Main Takeaways for Jan 2026: Moderate signal for continued Below Normal temperatures in the state. No strong signals of above or below normal precipitation (snow or rain). Winter Pattern Outlook Weak La Nina will result in subseasonal factors playing larger role in the pattern. Analog years point to a volatile pattern with periods of wild temperature swings and an active storm track. Discussion: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus07.html Main Takeaways Widespread Moderate to Severe Drought conditions continue across northern and eastern Maine, with very little improvements in most locations. Maine’s drought will persists over the winter with frozen soils hurting recovery. Water infiltration when ground is frozen is difficult regardless of rainfall or snowmelt. Increased potential of “anchor ice” in the rivers & streams due to lower flows. No significant signals pointing to above or below normal precipitation (including snowfall) for January 2026. Contact Information Web www.weather.gov/car Questions? Email nws.caribou@noaa.gov james.sinko@noaa.gov (Hydrology Program Manager) Disclaimer Updates to the Drought Information Statement will be made monthly, unless significant changes necessitate more frequent updates. Weekly updates to the US Drought Monitor can be found at droughtmonitor.unl.edu Drought conditions are less variable in the winter season due to dormant vegetation and frozen ground conditions. ! ! Required