Drought Information Statement for Northern and Eastern Maine Valid February 5, 2026 Issued By: WFO Caribou, ME This product will be updated March 5, 2026 or sooner, if drought conditions change significantly. Maine’s drought to persist over the winter with frozen soils hurting recovery. Very little groundwater recovery in Northern Maine. Disclaimer: NWS Caribou Drought Information Statement updates will be made on a monthly basis due to the seasonal change, and may not match the weekly USDM. U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Maine Percentage of Maine in Drought D0: (Abnormally Dry): 0% D1 (Moderate Drought): 46.19% D2 (Severe Drought): 52.57% D3 (Extreme Drought): 1.24% Drought Intensity and Extent: D2 (Severe Drought): Northern Somerset, northern Piscataquis, northwest Aroostook, southern Penobscot, central & southern Hancock counties. D1 (Moderate Drought): Eastern & southern Aroostook, central & southern Piscataquis, northern & central Penobscot, far northern Hancock & all of Washington counties. D0: (Abnormally Dry): No areas. Recent Change in Drought Intensity Four week drought monitor class change: Drought Worsened: No Areas. Drought Improved: Northeast Aroostook County. No Change: Rest of Maine. Precipitation Precipitation over the last month has been mainly in the form of snowfall. Precipitation remains below normal for much of the forecast area, except for portions of the North Woods where values were 90-100% of normal. Total precipitation over the past 30 days Percent of normal precipitation for the past 30 days Link to Northeast Regional Climate Center Link to Northeast Regional Climate Center Temperature Temperature departure from normal over the past 7 days Temperature departure from normal over the past 30 days 7 day temperature trends are generally well below normal by 5-10 degrees. 30 day trends are generally near to slightly above normal. Snowpack & Snow Water Equivalent Ground is frozen in all of the area. Downeast Maine: 3-10” deep, Central Highlands: 5-12” deep, Northern Maine: 16-24” deep. Although accumulating snow is often a positive sign for areas experiencing drought, the stored water does not provide an immediate benefit for drought recovery until it actually melts and begins to enter the wider water system if the ground is thawed. We expect little to no help till the spring thaw. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts 7 day river flows are “below normal” to near “normal” discharge values. Across Eastern & Northern Maine rivers are 75-95% frozen with thick ice. Rankings are based on open natural flow. Groundwater Impacts Near surface soil moisture across much of Maine has improved, and is now at or above normal. Deeper soil moisture continues to be significantly below normal in the Bangor region, Downeast, northern Maine and Central Highlands. >This indicator will be less relevant heading into winter as the ground freezes. Groundwater Impacts Deep layer moisture continues to be “below” to “much below normal”. There has been very little recovery with the deep frost depth, groundwater improvements will be very small if any. Maine Drought Task Force Dry Well Survey reporting page here. Soil Depth: Surface to ~79” The Greatest Drought Concern through the Winter Months for Drinking Water Rainfall Needed to “End the Drought” 245-305% of normal precipitation over the next month is needed to ameliorate drought conditions before the ground freezes (very unlikely). Once frozen, precipitation that would normally replenish groundwater won’t soaking in, leaving wells and aquifers with little recovery until the spring thaw Steady, light-rain events with high absorption rates are ideal. Snowfall melting during the day into unfrozen soils is ideal. 7-12” of liquid precipitation is needed to see full recovery before the ground freezes. Ground frost in Maine has started across northern regions and higher elevations, and ground freeze expected in mid December in southern areas, with long cold snaps often necessary to make depths over 4”. While accumulating snow is often a positive sign for areas experiencing drought, the stored water, measured as snow water equivalent (SWE), does not provide an immediate benefit for drought recovery until it actually melts and begins to enter the wider water system. Around 7” 245% of Normal Around 10” 303% of Normal Around 12” 307% of Normal Summary of Impacts The majority of the monthly streamflows across the area remain “near normal” to “below normal” (USGS) Lakes & ponds although ice covered are near to below normal water levels. Dry Drinking Water Wells No new dry well reports in January but very little improvement in groundwater expected. Mitigation Actions Conserve water and follow directions from local officials. Winter Ice Impacts Rivers are 75-95% ice covered, with near normal to below normal flows. Increased potential of “anchor ice” in the rivers & streams due to lower flows. Ponds/lakes levels are low, exposing rocks, posing risk to recreational activities. Winter Drought Considerations Overview: Maine’s drought will persists over the winter with frozen soils hurting recovery. If the snowpack in February continues to grow, it can act as an insulator, limiting deeper frost depths. When the ground is frozen, water infiltration becomes difficult regardless of winter rainfall or snowmelt. Any improvements are from the slow infiltration from earlier in the winter months. Winter is the driest time of the year, since cold air cannot hold as much moisture as warm air. Monthly precipitation averages drop to 2-3 inches in February. Looking ahead to Spring: A snowpack through winter is crucial to act as a natural water reservoir, as spring snowmelt helps recharge soil and aquifers. Below-normal snowfall could extend the drought and impact agriculture this growing season. The timing and rate of snowmelt will be vital to sustaining base flow in rivers and lakes the upcoming warm season. Even an active spring flood season can be insufficient to fully recharge aquifers in severe drought conditions. Long Range Outlooks (February) The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center 1 Month Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center 1 Month Precipitation Outlook. Valid Jan 31, 2026. Main Takeaways for February: Weak signal for continued below normal temperatures in the state. No strong signals of above or below normal precipitation (snow or rain). Pattern Outlook Weak La Nina will result in subseasonal factors playing larger role in the pattern. Analog years point to a volatile pattern with periods of wild temperature swings and an active storm track. Long Range Outlooks (February-April) The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center 3 Month Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center 3 Month Precipitation Outlook. Valid Jan 15, 2026. Main Takeaways for Feb-Apr: No strong signals of above or below normal temperatures in the state. No strong signals of above or below normal precipitation (snow or rain). Pattern Outlook Weak La Nina will result in subseasonal factors playing larger role in the pattern. Analog years point to a volatile pattern with periods of wild temperature swings and an active storm track. Main Takeaways Widespread Moderate to Severe Drought conditions continue across northern and eastern Maine, with very little improvements until the spring thaw. Maine’s drought will persists over the rest of the winter with frozen soils hurting recovery. Water infiltration when ground is frozen is difficult regardless of rainfall or snowmelt. Increased potential of “anchor ice” in the rivers & streams due to lower flows. No significant signals pointing to above or below normal precipitation (including snowfall) for the rest of Meteorological Winter (Ends Feb 28th) into Meteorological Spring (Starts Mar 1st). Contact Information Web www.weather.gov/car Questions? Email nws.caribou@noaa.gov james.sinko@noaa.gov (Hydrology Program Manager) Disclaimer Updates to the Drought Information Statement will be made monthly, unless significant changes necessitate more frequent updates. Weekly updates to the US Drought Monitor can be found at droughtmonitor.unl.edu Drought conditions are less variable in the winter season due to dormant vegetation and frozen ground conditions.