Drought Information Statement for Northern and Eastern Maine Valid March 8, 2026 Issued By: WFO Caribou, ME This product will be updated by April 9, 2026 or sooner, if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/car/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/car for regional drought status updates. Maine’s drought continues with frozen soils hurting recovery. Groundwater conditions worsen with no recovery. Disclaimer: NWS Caribou Drought Information Statement updates will be made on a monthly basis due to the seasonal change, and may not match the weekly USDM. For more information visit link: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/ U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Maine Percentage of Maine in Drought D0: (Abnormally Dry): 0% D1 (Moderate Drought): 46.15% D2 (Severe Drought): 52.61% D3 (Extreme Drought): 1.24% Drought Intensity and Extent: D2 (Severe Drought): Northern Somerset, northern Piscataquis, northwest Aroostook, southern Penobscot, central & southern Hancock counties. D1 (Moderate Drought): Eastern & southern Aroostook, central & southern Piscataquis, northern & central Penobscot, far northern Hancock & all of Washington counties. D0: (Abnormally Dry): No areas. Manually update the numbers… Remember USDM #s is D0-D4, D1-D4, D2-D4, D3-D4 These images are date specific and need to be downloaded: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?Northeast https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?ME https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20250819/20250819_me_text.png Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to the latest 1-month change map for Northeast U.S. Four week drought monitor class change: Drought Worsened: No Areas. Drought Improved: No Areas. No Change: All of Maine. These images are date specific and need to be downloaded: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/ChangeMaps.aspx https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/chng/png/current/current_ME_chng_4W.png Precipitation Precipitation over the last month has been mainly in the form of light fluffy snowfall. Precipitation remains significantly below normal for much of the forecast area. Total precipitation over the past 30 days Percent of normal precipitation for the past 30 days Link to Northeast Regional Climate Center Images will need to be manually updated due to website security issues https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/nrcc/30dPDataNRCC.png https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/nrcc/30dPDeptNRCC.png https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/nrcc/30dPNormNRCC.png Link to Northeast Regional Climate Center Temperature Temperature departure from normal over the past 7 days Temperature departure from normal over the past 30 days 7 day temperature trends are generally returning to near normal but remain 1-2 degrees below normal. 30 day trends are generally near to slightly below normal. https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/nrcc/7dTDeptNRCC.png https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/nrcc/30dTDeptNRCC.png Link to National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center (NOHRSC) Snowpack & Snow Water Equivalent Ground is frozen across the entire area. Downeast Maine: 3-12” deep, Central Highlands: 4-15” deep, Northern Maine: 20-30” deep. Although accumulating snow is often a positive sign for areas experiencing drought, the stored water does not provide an immediate benefit for drought recovery until it actually melts and begins to enter the wider water system if the ground is thawed. We expect little to no help until the spring thaw. Snowpack Compaction & Melt Underway Look in the I Drive! NOHRSC Snow Depth and NOHRSC SWE Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts River flows remain “below normal” discharge values. Significant ice 1-2ft exists on most rivers except where dams & human activity limit ice development. USGS streamflow compared to historical streamflow. Most rivers are ice covered therefore no statistics available. Aroostook River @ Washburn Taken: 3/8/2026 Snip the state map via here: https://waterdata.usgs.gov/state/maine/ Groundwater Impacts Near surface soil moisture across much of Maine has improved, and is now at or above normal. Deeper soil moisture continues to be significantly below normal in the Bangor region, Downeast, northern Maine and Central Highlands. Image Captions: National Water Model Soil Moisture Percentile 0-10cm Depth Soil Moisture Percentile 10-40cm Depth Soil Depth: Surface to ~4” Soil Depth: Surface to ~39” Below Normal Above Normal Below Normal Above Normal >This indicator will be less relevant heading into winter as the ground freezes. Manually UPDATE NWM Soil Moisture: https://nedews.nrcc.cornell.edu/ https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/Figures/daily/curr.w.rank.daily.gif 0-10cm map: https://nedews.nrcc.cornell.edu/NWM_maps/SOIL_M-1day-lev0-me.png 10-40cm map: https://nedews.nrcc.cornell.edu/NWM_maps/SOIL_M-1day-lev1-me.png https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/cmi.gif Groundwater Impacts Deep layer moisture continues to be “below” to “much below normal”. There has been very little recovery with the deep frost depth. Groundwater trends continue to slowly worsen with no recovery. Maine Drought Task Force Dry Well Survey reporting page here. Image Captions: USGS Groundwater Gauge Status Soil Moisture Percentile 0-200cm Depth Below Normal Above Normal Soil Depth: Surface to ~79” The Greatest Drought Concern through the Winter Months for Drinking Water Manually UPDATE NWM Soil Moisture (screenshot): https://nedews.nrcc.cornell.edu/ https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/Figures/daily/curr.w.rank.daily.gif 0-10cm map: https://nedews.nrcc.cornell.edu/NWM_maps/SOIL_M-1day-lev0-me.png 10-40cm map: https://nedews.nrcc.cornell.edu/NWM_maps/SOIL_M-1day-lev1-me.png 100-200cm map: https://nedews.nrcc.cornell.edu/NWM_maps/SOIL_M-1day-lev1-me.png https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/cmi.gif Rainfall Needed to “End the Drought” 245-305% of normal precipitation over the next month is needed to ameliorate drought conditions before the ground freezes (very unlikely). Once frozen, precipitation that would normally replenish groundwater won’t soaking in, leaving wells and aquifers with little recovery until the spring thaw Steady, light-rain events with high absorption rates are ideal. Snowfall melting during the day into unfrozen soils is ideal. 7-12” of liquid precipitation is needed to see full recovery before the ground freezes. Ground frost in Maine has started across northern regions and higher elevations, and ground freeze expected in mid December in southern areas, with long cold snaps often necessary to make depths over 4”. While accumulating snow is often a positive sign for areas experiencing drought, the stored water, measured as snow water equivalent (SWE), does not provide an immediate benefit for drought recovery until it actually melts and begins to enter the wider water system. Around 7” 245% of Normal Around 10” 303% of Normal Around 12” 307% of Normal https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/drought-recovery/current Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts The majority of the monthly streamflows across the area remain “near normal” to “below normal” (USGS) Lakes & ponds, although ice covered, are near to below normal water levels. Dry Drinking Water Wells No new dry well reports in February but groundwater conditions are worsening. Maine EMA Dry Well Survey: https://maine-dry-well-survey-maine.hub.arcgis.com/ Mitigation Actions Conserve water and follow directions from local officials. Ice Impacts & Flood Threats Rivers are 80-98% ice covered, with near normal to below normal flows. Ice is generally 1-2 feet thick Increased potential of “anchor ice” in the rivers & streams due to lower flows. Above Normal Ice Jam Threat Ponds/lakes levels are low, exposing rocks, posing risk to recreational activities. Flood Threat remains below normal see the latest Winter/Spring Flood Outlook Here. Fire Hazard Impacts Mostly low fire danger across the area. Relatively cloudy with significant rainfall will bring nearly an end to fire danger. Soaked fuels, combined with the lowering sun angle which has less influence in mid-late fall. Typical wildfires in late October and November usually do not require the same level of effort to extinguish. Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. Image Captions: NICC November 2025 Significant Fire Potential Image Captions: Maine Wildfire Danger Report Screenshot: https://mainefireweather.org/ https://www.nifc.gov/modules/custom/nicc_outlooks/images/outlook_d3.png https://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive-services/outlooks https://www.nifc.gov/nicc-files/predictive/outlooks/month1_outlook.png Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Unsettled weather pattern through the weekend, with additional rainfall & snowfall. Around half an inch of rain expected Wednesday through Thursday, and up to ¾ of an inch along the coast. Warm daytime highs until the weekend, so expect some melting that will contribute positively to soil moisture. Another round of precipitation possible in the north on Friday, and early next week. Image Caption: Weather Prediction Center 7-day precipitation forecast valid 11/25 7AM to 12/07 7AM https://www.weather.gov/images/nerfc/ops/7DayWPCQPF.png Rapid Onset Drought Outlook Currently no rapid drought risk forecast in the next two weeks. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d8_14_contours.png 8 to 14 Day Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center 8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook. Valid Dec 2 to Dec 8. Main Takeaways for the 2 Week Period: Moderate signal of below normal temperatures expected. A weak to moderate signal for wetter than average precipitation (rain or snow). Possible Impact This outlook indicates a potential trend toward improving drought conditions. Freeze-up is expected soon and it is unlikely the drought will be over before then. https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu/regional/drought/update/outlook_temp.png https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu/regional/drought/update/outlook_precip.png Long Range Outlooks (February) The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center 1 Month Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center 1 Month Precipitation Outlook. Valid Feb 28, 2026 Main Takeaways for February: Weak signal for continued above normal temperatures in the state. No strong signals of above or below normal precipitation (snow or rain). Pattern Outlook Weak La Niña is continuing to weaken and return towards ENSO neutral. We continue to monitor shorter term subseasonal patterns to control the forecast. The change to ENSO neutral will be significant enough to change the pattern. Discussion: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus07.html Long Range Outlooks (March-May) The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center 3 Month Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center 3 Month Precipitation Outlook. Valid Feb 19, 2026. Main Takeaways for Feb-Apr: No strong signals of above or below normal temperatures in the state. No strong signals of above or below normal precipitation (snow or rain). Pattern Outlook Weak La Niña is continuing to weaken and return towards ENSO neutral. We continue to monitor shorter term subseasonal patterns to control the forecast. The change to ENSO neutral will be significant enough to change the pattern. Discussion: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus07.html Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Main Takeaways No projected change in drought the remainder of this month. The severity of the ongoing drought suggests some degree of drought is expected to persist into the 2025-26 winter. Possible Impact Drinking water supply issues continuing due to deep groundwater deficits. Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/month_drought.png https://storage.googleapis.com/noaa-nidis-drought-gov-data/current-conditions/nws-dgt-images/nws-1-month-drought-outlook-new-england.png https://storage.googleapis.com/noaa-nidis-drought-gov-data/current-conditions/nws-dgt-images/nws-seasonal-(3-month)-drought-outlook-new-england.png Main Takeaways Widespread Moderate to Severe Drought conditions continue across northern and eastern Maine, no improvements until the spring thaw. Groundwater trends continue to slowly worsen. Maine’s drought will persist beyond the spring thaw unless there is significantly above normal precipitation after the frozen soils thaw. Water infiltration when ground is frozen is difficult regardless of rainfall or snowmelt. Increased potential of “anchor ice” in the rivers & streams due to lower flows. Increased risk of ice jams. No significant signals pointing to above or below normal precipitation. Contact Information Web www.weather.gov/car Questions? Email nws.caribou@noaa.gov james.sinko@noaa.gov (Hydrology Program Manager) Disclaimer Updates to the Drought Information Statement will be made monthly, unless significant changes necessitate more frequent updates. Weekly updates to the US Drought Monitor can be found at droughtmonitor.unl.edu Drought conditions are less variable in the winter season due to dormant vegetation and frozen ground conditions. ! ! Required